Special Questions on the Credit CARD Act of 2009
(Table 1, questions 21-23)
The October survey included a special question on banks' expectations with regard to the effects of the Credit CARD Act of 2009. Of the banks that make credit card loans, 75 percent did not expect to be compliant with the provisions of the legislation until February 2010, when most of the provisions will go into effect, whereas the rest were either already compliant or expected to be compliant by the end of this year.
As a result of the act, banks reported that they expect to tighten (or have already tightened) many terms on credit card loans for both prime and nonprime borrowers, although small fractions of banks reported, on net, that they expected to lengthen grace periods for prime borrowers and decrease penalty fees for both prime and nonprime borrowers.
For prime borrowers, about 50 percent of respondents, on net, expected to increase interest rate spreads, reduce credit limits, and reduce the extent to which loans will be granted to customers who do not meet credit-scoring thresholds. On net, about 45 percent of banks also expected to raise minimum required credit scores and about 40 percent expected to raise annual fees for prime borrowers. Expectations for tightening various terms were relatively more common for loans to nonprime borrowers. For nonprime borrowers, about 75 percent of banks expected to increase interest rate spreads, and about 60 percent expected to reduce the extent to which loans will be granted to customers who do not meet credit-scoring thresholds and to reduce credit limits. In addition, about 55 percent and 45 percent of banks also expected to raise minimum required credit scores and to raise annual fees, respectively, for nonprime borrowers.
The survey also included two questions on interest rate practices for credit card loans. A net fraction of about 35 percent of banks expected to increase the use of risk-based pricing, and about 30 percent expected to increase the use of variable interest rates and decrease the use of fixed interest rates. FRB: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey: October 2009
ravenstahl's a 30-year old idiot. doesn't have the balls to tax the holders of wealth, but instead wants to tax individuals subsisting basically on debt.
Pitt, CMU, Duquesne and like aren't cheap schools. Good luck with that.
But the key is the underfunded pension plan, that's what.
Philly's transit system, SEPTA, went on sudden strike last week despite agreeing to most things. Heard on news last night that the union's really asking for a full audit of the authority's pension plan.
Someone just comes along and introduces things like 'lending standards' and it ruins the whole market. How can you be expected to hit targets for # of loans made if you can't just give the money away to anyone ?
~splat
If I'm reading the report correctly, it looks like it got tougher to get a prime mortgage, but they've relaxed the standards for non-traditional mortgages. I'm guessing that non-traditional includes FHA.
Credit contracts and standards tighten following a worldwide decade-long frenzy of abuse and an orgy of easy money? This is a surprise and something we could never have predicted. The idea that banks wouldn't choose to make loans in order to lose money is just unthinkable.
Haralambos (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 10:21 pm
* edit
* reply
I am no expert, but be careful with the exhaust CO vs CO2 and ventilation. There are a fair number of deaths each year here in Europe due to the ventilation issue and poorly maintained heaters or exhaust problems.
I am no expert, but be careful with the exhaust CO vs CO2 and ventilation. There are a fair number of deaths each year here in Europe due to the ventilation issue and poorly maintained heaters or exhaust problems.
homedad43 (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 3:18 pm
But the key is the underfunded pension plan, that's what.
Police union, fireman's union, promised moon, stars, 40 acres and mule... when they retire.
Come out today, vote for people who cut deals with them payable in 20 years.
People who cut deals go to ancestors, catch skyhook, sneak off and leave sub-30 idiot to hold bag. Why fund that shit? You need the liquidity to lose your shirt in interest rate swaps and anyway, it is tomorrow's problem.
Then, God bless the union man as he sucks you dry.
Spent Saturday AM with some kids doing service project. Spoke with elderly gent who's selling his house to go to a retirement community. His house (@$184K) sold quickly to a young couple using the tax credit. His comments:
Housing over $200K is sitting locally.
He has a guy who periodically drops by and says that if the financing for the young couple falls through, he'll pay their price cash on the barrel head.
I'm also seeing more real estate auctions in my town now. But all for properties that could get $200-250K and upwards.
75 percent indicated that they had extended more than one-fourth of maturing construction and land development loans
Does anyone not see this as something of a problem right on the horizon of our 'recovery' ? That's not just an extend and hope.... that's a standing on the observation deck watching the iceberg get closer and wondering if you have time for another quick run through the buffet.
~splat
Ravenstahl, though probably an idiot individually, is doing only what is to be expected from a macro perspective
You see a bubble, you milk that bubble for all it's worth. There is no other sail on the boat catching any tailwind, except some exports. The federal government diesel prop isn't sure how much fuel they have left
We'll be seeing more of that for emerging markets before this is all over
Folks own a rental storage facility and they're seeing a big uptick in late payments. They don't get the economics but their boots-on-ground sense is that things are getting worse, despite the DJIA.
Cinco-X (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 2:24 pm
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
The idea that banks wouldn't choose to make loans in order to lose money is just unthinkable.
I think that the idea was for the holders of the securitized debt to lose money, not the originators....
You think so? I had always just assumed banks were run by greedy morons, not that their risk models had taken into account the effect of government subsidies and securitization to limit their own exposure to downside risk.
Folks own a rental storage facility and they're seeing a big uptick in late payments. They don't get the economics but their boots-on-ground sense is that things are getting worse, despite the DJIA.
Storage facility operator told me last weekend that people are downsizing to smaller units. Can't afford the high rent. But they're not lowering rents. Yet.
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Shares of credit-card companies rose Monday, a move one analyst attributed to comments made last week regarding the potential end of the credit downturn.
with this:
"There are families not eating at the end of the month,” said Stephen Quinn, executive vice president and chief marketing officer at Wal-Mart Stores, and “literally lining up at midnight” at Wal-Mart stores waiting to buy food when paychecks or government checks land in their accounts.
Maybe COF's underwritten really really well and none of those people who can't eat at the end of the month are carrying sizable balances.
You think so? I had always just assumed banks were run by greedy morons, not that their risk models had taken into account the effect of government subsidies and securitization to limit their own exposure to downside risk.
I think the plan was to take crappy loans and sell them in packages that looked safe to unsuspecting, naive buyers. Perhaps the banks thought that they were safe? It certainly easy to look back and say it's obvious that they weren't. On the other-hand, I wonder how anyone really believed that you could take a bunch of grade-B paper, mash it all together, and then come out with grade-A paper. Baffling to me; were they really that dumb, or were they lying?
Why do people expect market indices to correlate with economic activity? They're liquidity driven; every piece of bad economic news means less liquidity for ordinary people and more liquidity for market traders.
Signs of 'gold-bug-ism in an 'expected' financial/currency crash...
-'...but of course few here care to bother to learn.'
-'...a hot air forum to entertain me.'
-'...so I may thumb my nose at the commentators.'
-"...comments are worthless.'
(Slumdog, most people don't really care precisely why and how this clusterf!!k is really happening and they even may have trouble with focusing on *who is mostly responsible for this global financial/currency' crash...)
I'm watching a video of a guy trying to sell a 1 oz CML for it's face value $50, to the So Cals, but they want no part of the action @ 1/22nd of it's value...
Notable net fractions of domestic banks reported weaker demand for C&I loans from firms of all sizes, though the weakening was less widespread than in the July survey. In July, roughly 50 percent of domestic banks reported weaker demand for C&I loans to firms of all sizes; that fraction fell to roughly 30 percent and to 35 percent for loans to larger and to smaller firms, respectively, in October. The predominant reasons provided for reduced demand were similar to those cited in the July survey and included decreases in the need to finance investment in plant and equipment, inventories, accounts receivable, and merger and acquisition activity.
So no plant needed, continue running down inventories, low A/R.
These are the exact things, driven by increased consumption, that have formerly pulled us out of recession.
merchants of fear (profile) wrote on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 2:42 pm
Signs of 'gold-bug-ism in an 'expected' financial/currency crash...
-'...but of course few here care to bother to learn.'
-'...a hot air forum to entertain me.'
-'...so I may thumb my nose at the commentators.'
-"...comments are worthless.'
Hubris is Lucifer's favorite sin. Just doing God's work.
I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United Companies of America and
to the Empire for which it stands: one nation under Christian God,
indivisible, invincible, indestructible, with liberty and justice for all economically viable.
For prime residential mortgages, 25% of banks tightened and 2% eased. For nontraditional mortgages, 30% tightened and none eased.
For home equity loans, 32% of banks tightened and none eased.
If you believe Denninger then the reason they are tightening is they don't have the cash to actually lend....its all been gobbled up at the speed of light by the losses that have not yet seen the light of day. I'm stunned by the market action at 1091 SPX. I'm watching it and I can't get my head round the whole mess.
It appears all the Fed's liquidity is being sucked into the banking black hole, where money gets destroyed. The event horizon right now is the stock market, which will also get sucked into the black hole, sooner or later. Can't fight it, but I'm completely on the sidelines here, watching with an almost bemused sense of impending doom.
(Slumdog, most people don't really care precisely why and how this clusterf!!k is really happening and they even may have trouble with focusing on *who is mostly responsible for this global financial/currency' crash...)
If you had halfway decent credit (say a 750 FICO) and could get a $50k loan on your home you owe free and clear-that in theory is worth $500k, how much would it cost you nowadays?
Lowest NYSE volume day since October 19 (I think it's the fourth day in a row I've been able to say that). The whole upward move the last several days has been on low and steadily decreasing volume.
""What we are measuring as productivity gains may in fact be changes in trade," said William Alterman, assistant commissioner for international prices at the Bureau of Labor Statistics."
Lowest NYSE volume day since October 19 (I think it's the fourth day in a row I've been able to say that). The whole upward move the last several days has been on low and steadily decreasing volume.
Perhaps all of the reasonable smaller investors have decided to leave, and can pump the market using HFT to its hearts content?
Lowest NYSE volume day since October 19 (I think it's the fourth day in a row I've been able to say that). The whole upward move the last several days has been on low and steadily decreasing volume.
Given the market is held up on Hopium does that mean we're running out of buyers and when we get to that point the world will stop spinning. Maybe then we'll see a new stimulus brought out where unemployed folk get 5K a week to day trade. C4DT
Federal Reserve says stressed banks are on track
Fed: Stressed banks are on track
Fed: Stressed banks raised $77 billion in 7 months
GMAC in talks with Treasury about TARP access: Fed
I'm just catch up, so here's a carryover from previous thread.
Blockbuster plans to close about 20% of their 4100 domestic stores. At an estimated 5000 ft^2 per store that's 4 million ft^2 more Main Street space vacant.
If/when(?) the Blockbuster retail store model fails completely, that's 20 million ft^2 (about 3/4 of a square mile), all at street level.
Nice tool. Unfortunately, it doesn't tell you who's buying and who's selling. If it did, we'd know for sure WTF was going on. That's probably why it doesn't
I just think U.S. economic policies and central banking policies have caused this mess along with the TBTF pump and dump and many look at the squid whatever that is as the cause...
Does the 'squid' include central banking policies as the cause of dangerous economic cycles? Gold bugs like slumdog look at gold prices so they are focused on that most of the time.
The dollar is tanking because of central banking and U.S. economic policies IMO. It just appears to be the case. The squid is Big.
4th quarter is historically the worse performing time-period for indexes (S&P/DOW). That volume is decreasing relative to prior quarters, and indexes up, signals crash and burn. --bh
Maybe there is a continued 'consensus' attitude in many econ/finance observors that the central banking policies/U.S. economic policies and reason to be should be given the benefit of the doubt...
"What we are measuring as productivity gains may in fact be changes in trade," said William Alterman, assistant commissioner for international prices at the Bureau of Labor Statistics."
A clear understanding of the obvious... Next up > 3.5 X loan to income ratios, are not sustainable?
If you believe Denninger then the reason they are tightening is they don't have the cash to actually lend
Not so sure on this. It could be the explanation for many lenders. But such a widespread group? If the losses were really eating up all available cash, newly established lenders would grow like weeds.
A pair of otherwise distinguished physicists have suggested that the hypothesized Higgs boson, which physicists hope to produce with the collider, might be so abhorrent to nature that its creation would ripple backward through time and stop the collider before it could make one.
...
Dr. Nielsen and Dr. Ninomiya have proposed a kind of test: that CERN engage in a game of chance, a “card-drawing” exercise using perhaps a random-number generator, in order to discern bad luck from the future. If the outcome was sufficiently unlikely, say drawing the one spade in a deck with 100 million hearts, the machine would either not run at all, or only at low energies unlikely to find the Higgs.
While some of this would have happened anyway with the CC losses and capital needs, many prime borrowers can thank Barney and Chris Dodd for making their credit costs higher and credit less available, especially the samll businesses that rely on their credit cards to finance inventory.
Wow! DJIA averaging about +100pts. per day over the last 5 days. WTF!?
I have to wonder how many times people have to be hit by 2X4 before they get it. Repeat after me- no co-relation between economic conditions and the level of the market. Fund managers get paid when their funds do well. They are not allowed to go short so the alternative is to be in cash or buy stocks. Hard to get paid if you are returning investors 0% that they can do without you. So the only alternative is to buy. If they all do it then they all make money.(reminds of the Japanese convertible market in the 80s) If and when it blows up no problem just shuffle the decks fund manager A goes to work for fund B and repeat.
The media depends on advertising from these folks so everybody sings Kumbaya together. The bread will always fall buttered side up .
A pair of otherwise distinguished physicists have suggested that the hypothesized Higgs boson, which physicists hope to produce with the collider, might be so abhorrent to nature that its creation would ripple backward through time and stop the collider before it could make one.
I thought that something could only jump backwards from our reality into a parallel reality that would disallow the possibility of changing this reality which has already occurred for the inhabitants of this reality.
Time to lay off the
and the recovery in GDP is the financial equivalent of Hawking's radiation
emitting hopium particles
sm_landlord
More bad news about the good news:
""What we are measuring as productivity gains may in fact be changes in trade," said William Alterman, assistant commissioner for international prices at the Bureau of Labor Statistics."
ok...ok...ok...
so let me see if i get it
what youre sayin is
if i sell a widget to mp for a dollar
and he sells it to rob dawg for 2
and rob dawg sells the widget to evilhenrypaulson for 3$
and he sells it to shill for 4
and on and on down the 'users" list,
uh um i mean associates
are you tryin to tell me we aint generated to effing GDP
It is pretty amazing that they are still tightening lending standards. You'd think they would have tightened like crazy last year ...
Bet most of this is related to CC lending CR - many were waiting to see what the competiton did before finalizing their own plans to implement the CARD Act
More bad news about the good news:
""What we are measuring as productivity gains may in fact be changes in trade," said William Alterman, assistant commissioner for international prices at the Bureau of Labor Statistics."
Is this any worse than including resales of older homes in the GDP?
Goldman will be wiped off the financial landscape by the first shock wave.
It will be over in a matter of hours.
Even though they're a bank holding company? I'm skeptical, though I must admit that there's a bit of an apres moi, la deluge feel to them giving away so much in bonuses seemingly without need.
"A pair of otherwise distinguished physicists have suggested that the hypothesized Higgs boson, which physicists hope to produce with the collider, might be so abhorrent to nature that its creation would ripple backward through time and stop the collider before it could make one."
Questions for you banker types: What does extending a CRE loan entail? How is this different/worse than re-financing? Would refinancing require a re-appraisal?
EHP, Not necessarily. A trader can give his order to another broker to execute in the futures market. For instance if GS gives the order to BoA, it looks like BoA is buying or selling, but it's really for a GS account. Also you don't know whether the trade is for the house (in this case, either GS or BoA) or is for one of their funds or hedge fund.
While some of this would have happened anyway with the CC losses and capital needs, many prime borrowers can thank Barney and Chris Dodd for making their credit costs higher and credit less available, especially the samll businesses that rely on their credit cards to finance inventory.
Previously whenever opportunities to exploit consumer financial spreads occurred TPTB closed ranks and prevented it. Foiling Walmart's entry into banking was possibly their last stand. I pray for a Costco model; limited inventory, uniform policies and volume with short supply channels.
Whiskey (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 3:19 pm
I'm skeptical, though I must admit that there's a bit of an apres moi, la deluge feel to them giving away so much in bonuses seemingly without need.
Given the timing and (quite predictable) public sentiment, my first thought about the bonuses/profits issue handling was - do they know something we don't know? And of course the answer is yes, but we don't know what that thing is that they know
EHP, Not necessarily. A trader can give his order to another broker to execute in the futures market. For instance if GS gives the order to BoA, it looks like BoA is buying or selling, but it's really for a GS account. Also you don't know whether the trade is for the house (in this case, either GS or BoA) or is for one of their funds or hedge fund.
TA is a big truckstop operator. Get a load of the year over year numbers, particularly fuel sales. Not a heck of a lot diesel being pumped into big trucks last quarter. No trucks=No Stuff.
"Can you imagine your life without electric power?" Retired Admiral Mike McConnell asked correspondent Steve Kroft.
...
"If I were an attacker and I wanted to do strategic damage to the United States, I would either take the cold of winter or the heat of summer, I probably would sack electric power on the U.S. East Cost, maybe the West Coast, and attempt to cause a cascading effect. All of those things are in the art of the possible from a sophisticated attacker," McConnell explained.
"Do you believe our adversaries have the capability of bringing down a power grid?" Kroft asked.
"I do," McConnell replied.
Asked if the U.S. is prepared for such an attack, McConnell told Kroft, "No. The United States is not prepared for such an attack."
This isn't about Goldman.
Goldman will be wiped off the financial landscape by the first shock wave.
It will be over in a matter of hours.
Meanwhile, we will be war gaming our current risk assessment this weekend.
Conjure promises to be a cruel host.
It should be, as CR likes to say, "interesting."
I mean no insult or offense when I say this, mp, but you remind me of a James Bond villain. I read what you write and imagine you stroking a white cat while you say it. Again, no offense intended... I just find it a humorous association inside my head.
They tore down a k mart across the street from
a major mall years ago (sat vacant for years then),
still nothing. Merritt Island. I rather think developers should
pay for bonds to remediate trashed land into parks or
something if stuff stays vacant for long enough.
mp - GS will be wiped out in the first shockwave...
After the GS 'banking' company 'insiders' raid it and dump in time after the pump...a shell like AIG will 'exist' for the taxpayers...the 'good' assets will be drained...probably
The October survey included a special question on the status of CRE loans on banks' books that, at the beginning of 2009, were scheduled to mature by September of this year. Among the domestic respondents that reported having such loans, about 75 percent indicated that they had extended more than one-fourth of maturing construction and land development loans, and 70 percent reported extending more than one-fourth of maturing loans secured by nonfarm nonresidential real estate. In contrast, only 15 to 20 percent of domestic banks reported that they had refinanced more than one-fourth of each of the two types of maturing CRE loans.
Extending the loans makes a lot more sense than refinancing them (assuming the borrowers cannot reach the modified terms and conditions that would be required to refi).
I realize there are a few know-it-alls posting here who like to kick the 'extend and pretend' meme, but there's a reason that 70% to 75% of the banks extended more than 25% of their loans while only 15%-20% refinanced those maturing loans.
They are actually running banks to make a profit. Know-it-alls posting on CalculatedRisk aren't.
I mean no insult or offense when I say this, mp, but you remind me of a James Bond villain. I read what you write and imagine you stroking a white cat while you say it.
You're close. The cat is black and has a white tip at the end of its tail.
A pair of otherwise distinguished physicists have suggested that the hypothesized Higgs boson, which physicists hope to produce with the collider, might be so abhorrent to nature that its creation would ripple backward through time and stop the collider before it could make one.
The Panic of '73 is looking more and more like this debacle...
Of the country's 364 railroads, 89 went bankrupt. A total of 18,000 businesses failed between 1873 and 1875. Unemployment reached 14% by 1876, during a time which became known as the Long Depression. Construction work lagged, wages were cut, real estate values fell and corporate profits vanished.
The Panic of '73 is looking more and more like this debacle...
Of the country's 364 railroads, 89 went bankrupt. A total of 18,000 businesses failed between 1873 and 1875. Unemployment reached 14% by 1876, during a time which became known as the Long Depression. Construction work lagged, wages were cut, real estate values fell and corporate profits vanished.
No. The United States is not prepared for such an attack.
I hope this guy isn't a mouth-piece for the "smart grid" industry. I don't know that he is, but having a "smart grid" would solve this problem (along with global-warming, the middle-east, and the heartbreak of psoriasis if the smart-grid people are to be believed)
True enough, but staying in business beats the heck out of going out of business, so that should be a goal.
You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table.
There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealin's done.
Yet REITs are up today:
REITs help pace Monday's rally - MarketWatch
There is no price including "less than free" that will entice me back into commercial space for my business activities. I cannot believe I am alone. It's informal and under the radar and Sched C until breakout or nothing.
It's an intriguing idea, that Goldman is stupid enough to blow a hole in their balance sheet so big the Feds can't fill it. It makes sense, given all of the messianic nonsense coming from the top, like a cult that started as a scam that then evolved when the con artists at the top started believing their own lies.
There is no price including "less than free" that will entice me back into commercial space for my business activities. I cannot believe I am alone. It's informal and under the radar and Sched C until breakout or nothing.
Rumor has it that cities are about to start sharing data with the state FTB. Just say'in.
for a while there, Paulson had transformed capital losses at a bank into assets good for paying taxes
What happened!? I was reading, and it all just disappeared! Did you accidentally disclose some confidential info? Are you really just working for TPTB?
I don't trade equities, but it's fair to say the fixed income products I trade should be seeing increased demand if this rally in risky assets, particularly in emerging markets, is real. The past week was extremely quiet in terms of real flow, which seriously leads me to believe this rally extension is totally on fumes. Still not inclined to fight it though, even though the break (when it does come), could be incredibly quick and severe.
It makes sense, given all of the messianic nonsense coming from the top, like a cult that started as a scam that then evolved when the con artists at the top started believing their own lies.
All I'm saying is that in my mind it makes sense to extend a current loan than to foreclose just because the loan has reached a somewhat arbitrary maturity date. It's not like the lenders will do better being owners and trying to sell into this market.
Will some of those extended loans fail next year? Probably. Will CRE prices be lower if the lenders become owners next year and try to sell? Probably. Still, it's all a matter of the numbers. On balance I think they will do better doing what they're doing.
Now, for the ultimate doomers, there is no way they can do better because it will all crash and nothing will survive. If that really is the case, though, what difference would it make what they do right now? (That's just a rhetorical question.)
If the outcome was sufficiently unlikely, say drawing the one spade in a deck with 100 million hearts, the machine would either not run at all, or only at low energies unlikely to find the Higgs.
Grappling with these blind spots, nearly all of the 80 experts at the conference, which was sponsored by the Upjohn Institute and the National
thanks sm_landlord, from your link:
Grappling with these blind spots, nearly all of the 80 experts at the conference, which was sponsored by the Upjohn Institute and the Academy of Public Administration, agreed that the statistics now published tend to overstate the strength of the economy. That view was shared by those who attended from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve, all big players in measuring economic performance.
Recessions turn into depressions this way.
rally on......>10% unemployment is good for the market
Federal Reserve opposed as big bank savior by odd allies
Federal Reserve opposed as big bank savior by odd allies - Washington Times
Is loan demand weakening due to tightening standards, or unabashed fear?
just closed a 36 month loan, but it was with a finance company and not a bank.
I wonder how much longer banks can continue extending CRE loans?
It seems crazy to me, with the worst yet to come in that space.
Thread jukebox
1 play per click:
YouTube - Tighten Up LIVE - 1967- Archie Bell and the Drells
You've Got to Hide Your Loans Away
-- The Beatles
Here I stand in fantasy land
Turn my face to the wall
If value's gone I can't go on
Feelin' tier-one small
Everywhere people stare
Each and every day
I can see them laugh at me
And I hear them say
Hey you've got to hide your loans away
Hey you've got to hide your loans away
YouTube - beatles - help! - you've got to hide your love away
Just when you think you have seen it all....hahah!
Ravenstahl proposes 1% tax on higher ed students
Ravenstahl proposes 1% tax on higher ed students - Pittsburgh Business Times:
We are constructing a noose with this length of hope.
Long excerpt from the survey on credit cards:
Special Questions on the Credit CARD Act of 2009
(Table 1, questions 21-23)
The October survey included a special question on banks' expectations with regard to the effects of the Credit CARD Act of 2009. Of the banks that make credit card loans, 75 percent did not expect to be compliant with the provisions of the legislation until February 2010, when most of the provisions will go into effect, whereas the rest were either already compliant or expected to be compliant by the end of this year.
As a result of the act, banks reported that they expect to tighten (or have already tightened) many terms on credit card loans for both prime and nonprime borrowers, although small fractions of banks reported, on net, that they expected to lengthen grace periods for prime borrowers and decrease penalty fees for both prime and nonprime borrowers.
For prime borrowers, about 50 percent of respondents, on net, expected to increase interest rate spreads, reduce credit limits, and reduce the extent to which loans will be granted to customers who do not meet credit-scoring thresholds. On net, about 45 percent of banks also expected to raise minimum required credit scores and about 40 percent expected to raise annual fees for prime borrowers. Expectations for tightening various terms were relatively more common for loans to nonprime borrowers. For nonprime borrowers, about 75 percent of banks expected to increase interest rate spreads, and about 60 percent expected to reduce the extent to which loans will be granted to customers who do not meet credit-scoring thresholds and to reduce credit limits. In addition, about 55 percent and 45 percent of banks also expected to raise minimum required credit scores and to raise annual fees, respectively, for nonprime borrowers.
The survey also included two questions on interest rate practices for credit card loans. A net fraction of about 35 percent of banks expected to increase the use of risk-based pricing, and about 30 percent expected to increase the use of variable interest rates and decrease the use of fixed interest rates.
FRB: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey: October 2009
nice touch, Carnegie libraries in danger of closing in Pittsburg
greatest nation on earth?
shill wrote:
Self-destructive lunacy, fair share my *ss.
Would you like some seed corn with that?
sm_landlord wrote:
"If you don't give me more money I'll stop paying." "OMG! No! Anything but that!"
It is really quite obvious. The banks cannot stop lending extending to their pretending dependings.
ravenstahl's a 30-year old idiot. doesn't have the balls to tax the holders of wealth, but instead wants to tax individuals subsisting basically on debt.
Some thoughts for the inflationistas to ponder:
In this case the question is:
Why would the primary dealers demand relief from Tier Capital requirements in order to engage in reverse repos with The Fed, when they were recipients of the original "excess reserves" that occurred when the money was printed in the first place?
The answer is simple: those "excess reserves" no longer exist, having been sucked into the vortex of debt deflation.
Previously
w10949 wrote:
TPTB aren't unemployed-
"Hope" left my vocabulary about thirty years ago.
They are going to reap a goddamned whirlwind.
sheez. ravenstahl's still only 29.
Basel Too wrote:
And you thought he was one of those evil boomers, right?
The folks in Pittsburgh ain't wrapped too tight.
Pitt, CMU, Duquesne and like aren't cheap schools. Good luck with that.
But the key is the underfunded pension plan, that's what.
Philly's transit system, SEPTA, went on sudden strike last week despite agreeing to most things. Heard on news last night that the union's really asking for a full audit of the authority's pension plan.
And now some lights are starting to come on.
mp wrote:
How old were you? Did you lose it completely, or flop around between "isms" for awhile?
Cinco-X wrote:
shill (profile) wrote on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 3:12 pm
Ravenstahl proposes 1% tax on higher ed students
A village idiot who recently breezed to re-election through the local democratic political machine and will be mayor until he dies.
No, that's when I found it.
kidbuck wrote:
The difference?
Someone just comes along and introduces things like 'lending standards' and it ruins the whole market. How can you be expected to hit targets for # of loans made if you can't just give the money away to anyone ?
~splat
They are going to reap a goddamned whirlwind.
sounds like conjure speak
If I'm reading the report correctly, it looks like it got tougher to get a prime mortgage, but they've relaxed the standards for non-traditional mortgages. I'm guessing that non-traditional includes FHA.
Credit contracts and standards tighten following a worldwide decade-long frenzy of abuse and an orgy of easy money? This is a surprise and something we could never have predicted. The idea that banks wouldn't choose to make loans in order to lose money is just unthinkable.
Fed isn't going to even begin unwinding the alternative liquidity measures while monetary velocity is declining.
Today's announced layoffs:
November 9 , 2009
The Center for Disability Services in Albany - Budget Cuts = Possible Layoffs
Vodafone ( International ) - More Layoffs Expected
University of Nebraska - 300+ Layoffs?
City of Ketchikan - 23 Possible Layoffs
Pfizer - 600
Star Tribune - 100
Nortel Networks in Richardson - 56
Hedge Fund Ran By Red Sox Owner - Slashes 1/4 of Staff
Conway Layoffs Cut Deep
Sanford Corporation Start Layoff at its Janesville Plant - Jan. 2010
US Lawyer Job Cuts the Worse for 30 Years
Finnair ( International ) - Cuts Capacity 12% = Layoffs Possible
City of Grand Rapids - up to 150 Layoffs, Jan. 1
Creekside Mushrooms - 260
Update: Cooley Dickinson Hospital - Layoffs Today
Houston "Big Oil" - Creating Job Layoff Fears
==================================================
Today's Store closings
November 9 , 2009
Kmart in Danville Closing
Gebtans & Orlando Clothiers in Detroit
Pfizer closing 6 out of 20 R&D Sites
St. Vincent de Paul Thrift Store
Update: Aurora Pharmacy in Merrill Closed
UI Medical Laboratories ? Closing Tool Repair Center
National City closing 15 Branches
Simple Elegance Bridal and Formal Wear
Country's Life in Warwick
United Postal Service Possibly Closing Office in South Syracuse
Daily Job Cuts - Layoff News , Job Layoffs 2009 , Bankruptcy, Store closings and other Business Economy News
Pigged from the last thread on heat in the RV.
Haralambos (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 10:21 pm
* edit
* reply
I am no expert, but be careful with the exhaust CO vs CO2 and ventilation. There are a fair number of deaths each year here in Europe due to the ventilation issue and poorly maintained heaters or exhaust problems.
It is pretty amazing that they are still tightening lending standards. You'd think they would have tightened like crazy last year ...
As far as demand weakening - I'm not surprised. With so much slack in the economy, there is little reason to borrow.
best to all
*Rather, TBTF aren't unemployed. *
Too Bloated to Feed ? or Too Buggered to Finance
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
I think that the idea was for the holders of the securitized debt to lose money, not the originators....
The troubles with tribbles, except this isn't a Star Trek fantasy, it's the water supply of Pavlovegas being threatened...
Quagga mussels a toxic threat to Lake Mead - Monday, Nov. 9, 2009 | 2 a.m. - Las Vegas Sun
w10949 wrote:
Nope! They're doing just fine....bonuses for everybody!
Haralambos wrote:
indeed CO2 detectors are the latest gadget
homedad43 (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 3:18 pm
But the key is the underfunded pension plan, that's what.
Police union, fireman's union, promised moon, stars, 40 acres and mule... when they retire.
Come out today, vote for people who cut deals with them payable in 20 years.
People who cut deals go to ancestors, catch skyhook, sneak off and leave sub-30 idiot to hold bag. Why fund that shit? You need the liquidity to lose your shirt in interest rate swaps and anyway, it is tomorrow's problem.
Then, God bless the union man as he sucks you dry.
heres why demand for capital will be decreasing in the usa
check this video out
it is most excellent...satirical, but not
its short
didnt know at the end if i should laugh or cry
at the onion ...by way of financial armageddon
Financial Armageddon: The 'Real' Reason Unemployment Is Rising
Spent Saturday AM with some kids doing service project. Spoke with elderly gent who's selling his house to go to a retirement community. His house (@$184K) sold quickly to a young couple using the tax credit. His comments:
I'm also seeing more real estate auctions in my town now. But all for properties that could get $200-250K and upwards.
shill wrote:
Pfizer to shutter six out of 20 R&D sites - MarketWatch
This economy is going to auger in and make an enormous smoking crater. It's just a matter of when.
Does anyone not see this as something of a problem right on the horizon of our 'recovery' ? That's not just an extend and hope.... that's a standing on the observation deck watching the iceberg get closer and wondering if you have time for another quick run through the buffet.
~splat
How much tighter can you get than not lending any money
at all.
Rolling over stuff you are stuck with doesn't count.
the key is the underfunded pension plan
i think they meant overlooted pension plan...
mp wrote:
And how high the DOW jumps on the news: Investors optimistic as Economy craters.
This economy is going to auger in and make an enormous smoking crater. It's just a matter of when.
And the youngsters, not having a clue of what's going on, will all throw their hands in the air and yell "WHEEEEEEEE!"
Ravenstahl, though probably an idiot individually, is doing only what is to be expected from a macro perspective
You see a bubble, you milk that bubble for all it's worth. There is no other sail on the boat catching any tailwind, except some exports. The federal government diesel prop isn't sure how much fuel they have left
We'll be seeing more of that for emerging markets before this is all over
Cinco-X wrote:
Too Bonused to Fear
splat wrote:
Investors hungry for bargains as Iceberg approaches.
Wow! DJIA averaging about +100pts. per day over the last 5 days. WTF!?
One other conversation this weekend.
Folks own a rental storage facility and they're seeing a big uptick in late payments. They don't get the economics but their boots-on-ground sense is that things are getting worse, despite the DJIA.
Cinco-X (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 2:24 pm
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
The idea that banks wouldn't choose to make loans in order to lose money is just unthinkable.
I think that the idea was for the holders of the securitized debt to lose money, not the originators....
You think so? I had always just assumed banks were run by greedy morons, not that their risk models had taken into account the effect of government subsidies and securitization to limit their own exposure to downside risk.
Cinco-X wrote:
Trying to stall out at the highest possible altitude.
homedad43 wrote:
Storage facility operator told me last weekend that people are downsizing to smaller units. Can't afford the high rent. But they're not lowering rents. Yet.
I'm struggling a bit to reconcile this:
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Shares of credit-card companies rose Monday, a move one analyst attributed to comments made last week regarding the potential end of the credit downturn.
with this:
"There are families not eating at the end of the month,” said Stephen Quinn, executive vice president and chief marketing officer at Wal-Mart Stores, and “literally lining up at midnight” at Wal-Mart stores waiting to buy food when paychecks or government checks land in their accounts.
Maybe COF's underwritten really really well and none of those people who can't eat at the end of the month are carrying sizable balances.
Or maybe COF's wrong.
More American Workers Outsourcing Own Jobs Overseas | The Onion - America's Finest News Source
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
I think the plan was to take crappy loans and sell them in packages that looked safe to unsuspecting, naive buyers. Perhaps the banks thought that they were safe? It certainly easy to look back and say it's obvious that they weren't. On the other-hand, I wonder how anyone really believed that you could take a bunch of grade-B paper, mash it all together, and then come out with grade-A paper. Baffling to me; were they really that dumb, or were they lying?
Yalt:
Especially in light of Advanta's bankruptcy. Or perhaps it's just cheering for the survivors.
somebody just knocked the wind out of gold and silver
and all the while every major currency rose against the dollar
except the JPY
see kitco for the graph
gold and silver graphs etc on right margin going down
currency all the way at the bottom
Kitco - Gold Precious Metals - Buy Gold Sell Gold, Silver,
Platinum - Charts, Graphs, Prices, Quotes, Gold Stocks, Mining Stocks,
bullion dealers
homedad43 wrote:
Why do people expect market indices to correlate with economic activity? They're liquidity driven; every piece of bad economic news means less liquidity for ordinary people and more liquidity for market traders.
sm_landlord wrote:
Will it end in a cross spin, a dive, or the falling leaf? Got
?
I think the plan was to get paid
dolla dolla bills y'all
Cinco-X wrote:
Or was it a corporate culture of a morally corrupt society? Or was it a corporate culture of never questioning authority?
This economy is going to auger in and make an enormous smoking crater. It's just a matter of when.
Thread 'music'
lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 3:33 pm
You okay?
You evidently didn't get the memo.
The US economy hit the iceberg last year.
mp wrote:
Is this the part where the hull is crushed between two large icebergs?
mp wrote:
Fist Class to the lifeboats... Steerage, please stand by...
Rex Nutting weighs in:
Banks tighten credit on companies, consumers - MarketWatch
This economy is going to auger in and make an enormous smoking crater.
feeling a little cranky today?
China's Premier Warns Obama to Get America's Deficit to an "Appropriate Size"
over at tech Ticker
Who will blink first? Big Ben or Big Wen?
EvilHenryPaulson (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 2:37 pm
I think the plan was to get paid
dolla dolla bills y'all
Like taking candy from a baby, and just as laudable. But, hey, you got the candy, didn't you?
SNAFU wrote:
Neither, they are passengers in the same car
Cinco-X wrote on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 12:31 pm
Wow! DJIA averaging about +100pts. per day over the last 5 days. WTF!?
remember decoupling everybody
well decoupling was wrong during the first 4 or 5 miles of this marathon
yeah roubini wuz right to begin with
but soon he will be wrong and the world will decouple
multinational corporations whill have freed themselves
of us workers
of us taxes
will have wrung all the consumption they can thru credit they can
and will only need the usa for the armies it can muster
to protect their interests around the world with american blood
see
one reason why the stock market is rising
gues post at naked capitalism by g washington
Guest Post: One Reason that the Stock Market is Rising While Unemployment is Soaring « naked capitalism
Blackhalo wrote:
Freudian?
Signs of 'gold-bug-ism in an 'expected' financial/currency crash...
-'...but of course few here care to bother to learn.'
-'...a hot air forum to entertain me.'
-'...so I may thumb my nose at the commentators.'
-"...comments are worthless.'
(Slumdog, most people don't really care precisely why and how this clusterf!!k is really happening and they even may have trouble with focusing on *who is mostly responsible for this global financial/currency' crash...)
I'm watching a video of a guy trying to sell a 1 oz CML for it's face value $50, to the So Cals, but they want no part of the action @ 1/22nd of it's value...
YouTube - Man tries to sell $1100 one ounce gold coin for $50; no takers.
No, not really.
No more so than usual, while I watch a bunch of geniuses destroy something it took 250 years to build.
From the linked report:
So no plant needed, continue running down inventories, low A/R.
These are the exact things, driven by increased consumption, that have formerly pulled us out of recession.
Blackhalo wrote:
Good news, everybody! Free ice on the main deck!
Assume Crash Positions wrote:
Must be, I did not even notice it until I looked at it for the third time.
I obviously misread the report...
For prime residential mortgages, 25% of banks tightened and 2% eased. For nontraditional mortgages, 30% tightened and none eased.
For home equity loans, 32% of banks tightened and none eased.
merchants of fear (profile) wrote on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 2:42 pm
Signs of 'gold-bug-ism in an 'expected' financial/currency crash...
-'...but of course few here care to bother to learn.'
-'...a hot air forum to entertain me.'
-'...so I may thumb my nose at the commentators.'
-"...comments are worthless.'
Hubris is Lucifer's favorite sin. Just doing God's work.
I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United Companies of America and
to the Empire for which it stands: one nation under Christian God,
indivisible, invincible, indestructible, with liberty and justice for all economically viable.
action's gonna be fun when we get this sucker open..............
OMG. The dial really does go to "11." And the VIXs are down. Climbing on to a higher branch before jumping is not a sustainable policy.
A good site that shows inflation in food prices (and the ways companies try to hide it (smaller sizes, packaging etc.):
The
Food Timeline--historic food prices
When this new super bubble crashes we're going to look back on 1929 and 2008 as good times.
mock turtle wrote:
To me, "knock the wind out" of gold means taking it back below 900. But I'm not a trader.
as the titanic began to list
im gonna guess
there were extraordinary deals to be had on food, and liquor and maybe even the addmiralty suite was probably going for less than half price
i heard the captain was even authorized to accept any "reasonable" offer tendered for purchase of the ship
That will, I should imagine, change.
And sooner, rather than later.
The dial really does go to "11." And the VIXs are down.
VIX is always down when the market is up. (Well, for most values of "always").
Surprise "up" days are good, dontcha know......
Bob Dobbs wrote:
From Kitco:
Gold Price Change due to Weakening of US Dollar +10.60
Gold Price Change due to Predominant Selling -4.10
Gold Price: Total Change +6.50
Rob Dawg wrote:
Does the volume dial go into the negative numbers?
Bob Dobbs
i kinda agree...just being colorful
im a believer (believer, yeah i think thats the right word)
in the value of the yellow metal during the foreseeable future
anddthere will be some up drafts, and down drafts too along the way
Chainsaw wrote:
For home equity loans, 32% of banks tightened and none eased.
If you believe Denninger then the reason they are tightening is they don't have the cash to actually lend....its all been gobbled up at the speed of light by the losses that have not yet seen the light of day. I'm stunned by the market action at 1091 SPX. I'm watching it and I can't get my head round the whole mess.
It appears all the Fed's liquidity is being sucked into the banking black hole, where money gets destroyed. The event horizon right now is the stock market, which will also get sucked into the black hole, sooner or later. Can't fight it, but I'm completely on the sidelines here, watching with an almost bemused sense of impending doom.
merchants of fear wrote:
DNFT
Yalt wrote:
Maybe if you do your arithmetic with modulo 11.
..and the recovery in GDP is the financial equivalent of Hawking's radiation
~splat
Today's market action feels like the last scene of Thelma & Louise. Time to hold hands and floor it.
splat wrote:
Is that when matter's energy is expelled as it's temperature drops to absolute zero and its structure collapses on itself?
If you had halfway decent credit (say a 750 FICO) and could get a $50k loan on your home you owe free and clear-that in theory is worth $500k, how much would it cost you nowadays?
Lowest NYSE volume day since October 19 (I think it's the fourth day in a row I've been able to say that). The whole upward move the last several days has been on low and steadily decreasing volume.
splat wrote:
emitting hopium particles
More bad news about the good news:
economists-seek-to-fix-a-defect-in-data-that-overstates-the-nations-vigor: Personal Finance News from Yahoo! Finance
""What we are measuring as productivity gains may in fact be changes in trade," said William Alterman, assistant commissioner for international prices at the Bureau of Labor Statistics."
Oops!
Yalt wrote:
Perhaps all of the reasonable smaller investors have decided to leave, and
can pump the market using HFT to its hearts content?
BATS Exchange || Market Data Tools
Shark Investing - Volume Charts
Yalt wrote:
Given the market is held up on Hopium does that mean we're running out of buyers and when we get to that point the world will stop spinning. Maybe then we'll see a new stimulus brought out where unemployed folk get 5K a week to day trade. C4DT
Federal Reserve says stressed banks are on track
Fed: Stressed banks are on track
Fed: Stressed banks raised $77 billion in 7 months
GMAC in talks with Treasury about TARP access: Fed
Ho-hum.
I'm just catch up, so here's a carryover from previous thread.
Blockbuster plans to close about 20% of their 4100 domestic stores. At an estimated 5000 ft^2 per store that's 4 million ft^2 more Main Street space vacant.
If/when(?) the Blockbuster retail store model fails completely, that's 20 million ft^2 (about 3/4 of a square mile), all at street level.
CBOE Equity P/C Ratio
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Nice tool. Unfortunately, it doesn't tell you who's buying and who's selling. If it did, we'd know for sure WTF was going on. That's probably why it doesn't
picosec wrote:
I think the consensus was that this would only affect average peasant LOSERS, but because REAL Mericans are all above-average this didn't matter.
cinco-x - 'DFNT' Directional non-force technique?
I just think U.S. economic policies and central banking policies have caused this mess along with the TBTF pump and dump and many look at the squid whatever that is as the cause...
Does the 'squid' include central banking policies as the cause of dangerous economic cycles? Gold bugs like slumdog look at gold prices so they are focused on that most of the time.
The dollar is tanking because of central banking and U.S. economic policies IMO. It just appears to be the case. The squid is Big.
Rarely has a company's name had such hidden meaning about it's real motives...
Worry not though, we can turn all the vacant locations into dog washes~
Don't forget day spas and no grunting gyms!
4th quarter is historically the worse performing time-period for indexes (S&P/DOW). That volume is decreasing relative to prior quarters, and indexes up, signals crash and burn. --bh
Is there room for a homemade soap store?
Maybe there is a continued 'consensus' attitude in many econ/finance observors that the central banking policies/U.S. economic policies and
reason to be should be given the benefit of the doubt...
merchants of fear wrote:
Private message for you; check your e-mail.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
There are already too many of those... those and do-it-yourself pottery shops.
sm_landlord wrote:
A clear understanding of the obvious... Next up > 3.5 X loan to income ratios, are not sustainable?
This isn't about Goldman.
Goldman will be wiped off the financial landscape by the first shock wave.
It will be over in a matter of hours.
Meanwhile, we will be war gaming our current risk assessment this weekend.
Conjure promises to be a cruel host.
It should be, as CR likes to say, "interesting."
sm_landlord wrote:
Both might be good skills to have after the crash
w10949 wrote:
Not so sure on this. It could be the explanation for many lenders. But such a widespread group? If the losses were really eating up all available cash, newly established lenders would grow like weeds.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Speaking of which, has anybody been following this story?
ESSAY; The Collider, the Particle And a Theory About Fate - NY Times
A pair of otherwise distinguished physicists have suggested that the hypothesized Higgs boson, which physicists hope to produce with the collider, might be so abhorrent to nature that its creation would ripple backward through time and stop the collider before it could make one.
...
Dr. Nielsen and Dr. Ninomiya have proposed a kind of test: that CERN engage in a game of chance, a “card-drawing” exercise using perhaps a random-number generator, in order to discern bad luck from the future. If the outcome was sufficiently unlikely, say drawing the one spade in a deck with 100 million hearts, the machine would either not run at all, or only at low energies unlikely to find the Higgs.
,rad mp,
I was talking about Blockbuster leaving all those gaping holes in consumerdom, but it works for AUman, as well.
energyecon wrote:
While some of this would have happened anyway with the CC losses and capital needs, many prime borrowers can thank Barney and Chris Dodd for making their credit costs higher and credit less available, especially the samll businesses that rely on their credit cards to finance inventory.
Cinco-X wrote:
I have to wonder how many times people have to be hit by 2X4 before they get it. Repeat after me- no co-relation between economic conditions and the level of the market. Fund managers get paid when their funds do well. They are not allowed to go short so the alternative is to be in cash or buy stocks. Hard to get paid if you are returning investors 0% that they can do without you. So the only alternative is to buy. If they all do it then they all make money.(reminds of the Japanese convertible market in the 80s) If and when it blows up no problem just shuffle the decks fund manager A goes to work for fund B and repeat.
The media depends on advertising from these folks so everybody sings Kumbaya together. The bread will always fall buttered side up .
I wonder if the treasury boyz do have a plan-b? Does the Big O ask them for a plan-b?
Or, do they see this ending in the same way the "war on drugs" people see an ending? Or the "perpetual war on trrrrrr" people see an ending?
Yalt wrote:
I thought that something could only jump backwards from our reality into a parallel reality that would disallow the possibility of changing this reality which has already occurred for the inhabitants of this reality.
Time to lay off the
splat wrote:
and the recovery in GDP is the financial equivalent of Hawking's radiation
emitting hopium particles
sm_landlord
More bad news about the good news:
""What we are measuring as productivity gains may in fact be changes in trade," said William Alterman, assistant commissioner for international prices at the Bureau of Labor Statistics."
ok...ok...ok...
so let me see if i get it
what youre sayin is
if i sell a widget to mp for a dollar
and he sells it to rob dawg for 2
and rob dawg sells the widget to evilhenrypaulson for 3$
and he sells it to shill for 4
and on and on down the 'users" list,
uh um i mean associates
are you tryin to tell me we aint generated to effing GDP
no way
that just aint right
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Bet most of this is related to CC lending CR - many were waiting to see what the competiton did before finalizing their own plans to implement the CARD Act
mock turtle wrote:
Is this any worse than including resales of older homes in the GDP?
Terry
the survey asks diffusion type questions by category, FRB: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey--Table
1--October 2009
it's about much more than credit cards, it's about trying to regain balance sheet solvency from a very large gap
mp wrote:
Even though they're a bank holding company? I'm skeptical, though I must admit that there's a bit of an apres moi, la deluge feel to them giving away so much in bonuses seemingly without need.
Yalt wrote
"A pair of otherwise distinguished physicists have suggested that the hypothesized Higgs boson, which physicists hope to produce with the collider, might be so abhorrent to nature that its creation would ripple backward through time and stop the collider before it could make one."
dont worry
i have it from a good source
time travel has already been invented
in the future
Questions for you banker types: What does extending a CRE loan entail? How is this different/worse than re-financing? Would refinancing require a re-appraisal?
EHP, Not necessarily. A trader can give his order to another broker to execute in the futures market. For instance if GS gives the order to BoA, it looks like BoA is buying or selling, but it's really for a GS account. Also you don't know whether the trade is for the house (in this case, either GS or BoA) or is for one of their funds or hedge fund.
Terry wrote:
Previously whenever opportunities to exploit consumer financial spreads occurred TPTB closed ranks and prevented it. Foiling Walmart's entry into banking was possibly their last stand. I pray for a Costco model; limited inventory, uniform policies and volume with short supply channels.
Cinco-X wrote:
Same stuff, different day.
Or howzabout opening up defunct Blockbuster locations, with Newtiques.
What's a Newtique?
The crap you got for xmas (pick a year, any year) that you never used, that sits in a closet or garage, forlorn and unwanted.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
1st Gen Zune.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Regifting will be big this year. Not good news for retailers, unless they are selling wrapping paper. Even some of that may be recycled.
Whiskey (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 3:19 pm
I'm skeptical, though I must admit that there's a bit of an apres moi, la deluge feel to them giving away so much in bonuses seemingly without need.
Given the timing and (quite predictable) public sentiment, my first thought about the bonuses/profits issue handling was - do they know something we don't know? And of course the answer is yes, but we don't know what that thing is that they know
traderwalt
Are you sure you're replying to me? I only posted the link to BATS volume with no comments
traderwalt wrote:
That was my screw up, not EHP's-
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
A corner white-elephant store? White elephant gift exchange - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
mp and whiskey debated:
Goldman will be wiped off the financial landscape by the first shock wave.
It will be over in a matter of hours.
Even though they're a bank holding company?
let me fix that for ya
should read
even though they are a blank holding company
there now isnt that better?
Travelcenters of America Earnings
TA is a big truckstop operator. Get a load of the year over year numbers, particularly fuel sales. Not a heck of a lot diesel being pumped into big trucks last quarter. No trucks=No Stuff.
If we didn't have enough to worry about already.
Last night 60 minutes:
"Can you imagine your life without electric power?" Retired Admiral Mike McConnell asked correspondent Steve Kroft.
...
"If I were an attacker and I wanted to do strategic damage to the United States, I would either take the cold of winter or the heat of summer, I probably would sack electric power on the U.S. East Cost, maybe the West Coast, and attempt to cause a cascading effect. All of those things are in the art of the possible from a sophisticated attacker," McConnell explained.
"Do you believe our adversaries have the capability of bringing down a power grid?" Kroft asked.
"I do," McConnell replied.
Asked if the U.S. is prepared for such an attack, McConnell told Kroft, "No. The United States is not prepared for such an attack."
Cyber War: Sabotaging the System - 60 Minutes - CBS News
mp wrote:
I mean no insult or offense when I say this, mp, but you remind me of a James Bond villain. I read what you write and imagine you stroking a white cat while you say it. Again, no offense intended... I just find it a humorous association inside my head.
They tore down a k mart across the street from
a major mall years ago (sat vacant for years then),
still nothing. Merritt Island. I rather think developers should
pay for bonds to remediate trashed land into parks or
something if stuff stays vacant for long enough.
As if that would ever happen.
mp - GS will be wiped out in the first shockwave...
After the GS 'banking' company 'insiders' raid it and dump in time after the pump...a shell like AIG will 'exist' for the taxpayers...the 'good' assets will be drained...probably
It won't matter, but you don't see that.
I've work to do. Have a good day.
Extending the loans makes a lot more sense than refinancing them (assuming the borrowers cannot reach the modified terms and conditions that would be required to refi).
I realize there are a few know-it-alls posting here who like to kick the 'extend and pretend' meme, but there's a reason that 70% to 75% of the banks extended more than 25% of their loans while only 15%-20% refinanced those maturing loans.
They are actually running banks to make a profit. Know-it-alls posting on CalculatedRisk aren't.
Bd...that's such old news...
Give me 19 guys in a room... and in 3 hours i can hatch a plan that would bring the country to it's knees...
no...no,, totally impossible...i did'nt mean that...not possible
You're close. The cat is black and has a white tip at the end of its tail.
Have a good day.
sf - and to stay in business, at least until the next quarter
A pair of otherwise distinguished physicists have suggested that the hypothesized Higgs boson, which physicists hope to produce with the collider, might be so abhorrent to nature that its creation would ripple backward through time and stop the collider before it could make one.
Baguette Dropped From Bird's Beak Shuts Down The Large Hadron Collider (Really) | Popular Science
See the picture.
mp said ..i have work to do
mock turtle chasing after mp and yelling
hey mp...mp...wait for me..ill help mix the concrete
mp wrote:
Is Conjure a miniature version of you?
The Panic of '73 is looking more and more like this debacle...
Panic of 1873 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Banker's bonuses: 40% bigger this year
Banker's bonuses: 40% bigger this year - Nov. 9, 2009
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
How low will CRE rents have to go to fill those stores with something else?
so does that meen mp is kinda like dr, NO?
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Old news
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
True enough, but staying in business beats the heck out of going out of business, so that should be a goal.
black dog wrote:
I hope this guy isn't a mouth-piece for the "smart grid" industry. I don't know that he is, but having a "smart grid" would solve this problem (along with global-warming, the middle-east, and the heartbreak of psoriasis if the smart-grid people are to be believed)
Layoffs Hit EA Studios Including Tiburon, Black Box, Redwood Shores, Mythic
Gamasutra - News - Report: Layoffs Hit EA Studios Including Tiburon, Black Box, Redwood Shores, Mythic
Yet REITs are up today:
REITs help pace Monday's rally - MarketWatch
TBTF are 'vehicles' to transfer money..
sportsfan wrote:
You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table.
There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealin's done.
sportsfan (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 3:31 pm
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
and to stay in business, at least until the next quarter
True enough, but staying in business beats the heck out of going out of business, so that should be a goal.
Absolutely no disagreement here. It would be difficult to run a business that had going out of business as its goal. Morally, I mean. Uh-oh.
...to themselves...
EHP, sorry my mistake.
sm_landlord wrote:
There is no price including "less than free" that will entice me back into commercial space for my business activities. I cannot believe I am alone. It's informal and under the radar and Sched C until breakout or nothing.
Econ Theory doesn't have to be complicated...
Demand for loans? There is plenty of demand, just no qualified borrowers.
It would be difficult to run a business that had going out of business as its goal.
it's actually pretty easy. just ask the LBO boys from the 1980s and the PE guys from the 2000s. debt + fat management fees + BK.
sucks for the employees though.
w10949 wrote:
Ran out of buyers long ago--it's just fund managers playing ping pong.
mp wrote:
It's an intriguing idea, that Goldman is stupid enough to blow a hole in their balance sheet so big the Feds can't fill it. It makes sense, given all of the messianic nonsense coming from the top, like a cult that started as a scam that then evolved when the con artists at the top started believing their own lies.
Alert! Pissing match to ensue:
You said on Bloomberg that Nouriel Roubini did not do his homework regarding the asset bubbles about which he is now warning. Can you explain what homework he did not do?
Jim: All of it. How can you talk about a bubble when assets such as silver are 70% below their all-time high? Same for coffee, sugar, cotton, natural gas, and many more. I have a problem talking about a bubble when assets are this depressed from their all-time highs.
Did I read the America's TravelCenters financial statment correctly, that revenues are down MORE THAN 50% YOY?!
Basel - yes, I agree. I amended my original statement to make the intent more obvious.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Rumor has it that cities are about to start sharing data with the state FTB. Just say'in.
for a while there, Paulson had transformed capital losses at a bank into assets good for paying taxes
Whiskey wrote:
Stupidity? It may well be rational economic behavior.
Ida reduced to tropical storm.
i kind of like what stanford did with its endowment, shedding most of its illiquid, and impossible to valuate, PE stakes.
MaryAnn wrote:
So much for UNG and USO tomorrow.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
What happened!? I was reading, and it all just disappeared! Did you accidentally disclose some confidential info? Are you really just working for TPTB?
sm_landlord wrote:
Rumor has it that cities are about to start admitting to sharing data with the state FTB.
There. Fixed that for ya.
I don't trade equities, but it's fair to say the fixed income products I trade should be seeing increased demand if this rally in risky assets, particularly in emerging markets, is real. The past week was extremely quiet in terms of real flow, which seriously leads me to believe this rally extension is totally on fumes. Still not inclined to fight it though, even though the break (when it does come), could be incredibly quick and severe.
Whiskey wrote:
Ghosts of Jim and Tammy Faye Baker?
'Messianic nonsense' is a distraction to what's going on...
Blackhalo, RiF,
All I'm saying is that in my mind it makes sense to extend a current loan than to foreclose just because the loan has reached a somewhat arbitrary maturity date. It's not like the lenders will do better being owners and trying to sell into this market.
Will some of those extended loans fail next year? Probably. Will CRE prices be lower if the lenders become owners next year and try to sell? Probably. Still, it's all a matter of the numbers. On balance I think they will do better doing what they're doing.
Now, for the ultimate doomers, there is no way they can do better because it will all crash and nothing will survive. If that really is the case, though, what difference would it make what they do right now? (That's just a rhetorical question.)
Did I read the America's TravelCenters financial statment correctly, that revenues are down MORE THAN 50% YOY?!
Yes, in the 9 months to Sep, 2009 is down 10% in fuel volumes, but 50% in fuel sales revenue, against 2008.
Hence the giant ass losses.
Yalt wrote:
Reverse improbabilty drive
Yay, plus 200. Partay!!! Hookers and blow for everyone!
REITs are up something fierce. SPG and VNO are up over 5% on the day. It is truly astounding what 0% interest rates and infinite liquidity can do.
At this rate, the event horizon will come very quickly indeed. Now where did I put my black swan?
sportsfan wrote:
Sounds a lot like knife catching to me.
Grappling with these blind spots, nearly all of the 80 experts at the conference, which was sponsored by the Upjohn Institute and the National
thanks sm_landlord, from your link:
ever wonder what % of stuff in storage units long term is pure dumpster material......
directional non force technique????