Maybe we should just suck it up and admit this ain't no recovery?

NM, still trying to digest the chart.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Maybe we should just suck it up and admit this ain't no recovery?

Dawg, just do what the rest of us have done and redefine what you consider to be a 'recovery'.

Re: "Maybe we should call this a "job loss" recovery?"

How bout we call this reality and then use some truth and say there is no recovery and that in aggregate, things are getting worse every day!

dr munch wrote:

The genius healthcare plan will ship more jobs overseas.

How does the current bill, affect what seems largely inevitable anyway?

I prefer to call this the recoveryless recovery....

,rad Windward,

It was stunning, there were veins of oak trees with 22k gold-looking leaves, from around 4,500 to 6,000 feet, the ones in the distance looking like so many gold nuggets stuck in the middle of the deciduous...

There is a jobs recovery underway.

Employment Engineering: Firing those who Work with Their Hands. Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate Jobs Protected by Bailout Structure. Other Sectors Dealing with Depression Trends.

Given the 8 million jobs officially lost in this recession, a mere 600,000 came from the finance, insurance, and real estate industries. This is the sector that is largely responsible for the housing bubble and the entire finance mess yet it is not taking a major cut as it should. Why? The bailouts are targeted in protecting many of these Wall Street paper pushers. In fact, you can see that in the last month it actually added jobs.

The Jobless recovery was due to asset bubbles and consumption that fed off the asset bubbles I think holiday sales take another tumble from last year.

immediate goal: How do we kick the economic issue past mid term elections?

rb wrote:

There is a jobs recovery underway.

Employment Engineering: Firing those who Work with Their Hands. Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate Jobs Protected by Bailout Structure. Other Sectors Dealing with Depression Trends.

Now, we just need to wait for that to trickle down...

And my own personal finances are having a cashless recovery.

It's not hard to fix. I just replace all the -'s with +'s, and recolor all the red to green.

Voila. Instant cashless recovery.

The new rule is there are no rules.

Looking to the year over year changes in EMRATIO, the peak rate of decline on a year over year basis occurred 36% of the way through the 44 month sequence of consecutive year over year declines in the 2001 recession...we are now in the 29th month of year over year declines in the current recession, and at a new record (again) for the rate of year over year decline.

So some very simple extrapolation - assuming that the October number is the peak year over year decline, we divide 29/.36 = 80.5, and subtract the 29 and get 51.5 of remaining months of year over year declines in EMRATIO - if the experience this time is no better or worse than the 2001 recession, we could expect to see year over year improvement in EMRATIO around January, 2014.
energyecon: EMRATIO - Continued negative acceleration Year Over Year

and actually somewhat on-topic...

energyecon (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 11:23 am

How about if that tends to make income zero except for government transfer payments via the loss of manufacturing jobs?

Yeah, that's a problem, isn't it? I guess we should have thought of that. On the other hand, we make the folks in third-world nations that took them a lot better off and they have a lot more stable lives (at least temporarily). It's also grand for the execs and politicos, and anyone who lives off passive income generated in the tertiary financial economy.

Imagine a super duper computer that executes trades generating the entire GDP of a country. The computer is quite efficient and requires only 1% of the population to manage it. GDP keeps growing at 5% per annum (huzzah!), but 99% of the population are unemployed.

Specificly, where was the recovery? Wallstreet? Mainstreet?

HomeGnome wrote:

Geez noob, I don't want you in my bunker.

As long as you don't attract the attention of 'The Man', I'm okay.

But you can have my after you pry it from my cold, dead hands.

The recovery will continue until the morale improves

Ok will send after I get off the Bart. Am thinking of taking a few video clips on my phone as well. The biotech campus on the other side of highway 84 has "only" 1.8 million sq feet of space still available. Better get in before it all gets rented out.

hahahahaha - ouch

Average banker bonus at GS, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley = $250,000.00

rb - excellent link above. Thanks!

HomeG,

Every penny of that treasure should go to the unemployed!

Monday morning optimism broken by CR's post.

Then energyecon shatters what little is left after regrouping.

Think I'll leave the house and pretend to get some work done anyway.

That way the boss can pretend to pay me.

Have a great day, folks.

Agreed.

crazyv wrote:

If I am right than extrapolating what happened in the last go around will depend crucially on consumer debt expanding.

Good lord, I hope not. Then we're all screwed.

jd-

To give you an example of one of my neighbors...it's a family of four that live in a rented house. Husband is/was in the CAD business and lost his job last year. Two young kids one of which is school aged..the other not. It gets a little weird here....the husband has been in Massachusetts(we're in San Diego) since early August (looking for work apparently) and only sends back about $500 a month for the rest of his family....meanwhile the wife and kids are living in a home with 2 years of delinquent prop. taxes (the landlord is in default) and he has decided to just stay away and let the wife deal with all of the problems associated with bringing up two kids while mom doesn't work. Honestly I don't know how she does it....nevermind that "dad" can somehow stay away from his kids for that long period.

I've spoken to the wife....had her and the kids over several times for dinner and for someone who takes great pains to try and raise the kids correctly and with manners-sorely lacking IMO with most-....she is just oblivious to all things financial. I really do not know how she keeps it together.

I thought I had problems until I started speaking to the people in the neighborhood.

Ciao
MS

Lefty,
The only thing worse than being miserable is being wet and miserable. Good old Ranger sunshine

Comment by Leftys Liquors Lubricants and Tarp and Bank from thread 'Fed's Bullard: Inflation Outlook Uncertain'

"Maybe market activity is actually a giant promotion for the movie."

That would be some press agent.

This job recovery will be similar to the 2001 recession: instead of tech jobs we had FIRE jobs. Those who were in the cubicles during both job booms will know why:
.com boom - I (a sysadmin) sat next to a PHP programmer making $75k/yr. I knew the fit was hitting the shan when I had to help her write code to read/write a browser cookie (literally 5 lines of code). If she was making $75k and was this worthless, something was very, very wrong with the job market.

FIRE boom - Again working as a sysadmin (freelance this time around) I met more HS dropout loan officers making $8-10k/mo than I could count. When I stopped and asked myself 'why are these dbags with ZERO training or experince making more than an IT professional w/ 15yrs experience?' I realized something was very, very wrong with the job market.

Both 'job recoveries' are similar: too many people w/o any actual skills. Those will have a hard time finding work. Theres only so many bar tenders needed.

noob - I agree. Santa is bringing that movie for the kids and I can't wait.

Believe me when I say that bartending is a skilled position.

I think the conventional language of economics needs to be amended. Right now the implicit assumption is that economic activity is either declining or increasing. However due to seasonal variation, and exogenous impulses even if the data is accurate and timely the margin of error is too large to decide between positive or negative for a significant band around 0%.

I want to see it be a ternary choice. Positive, neutral, negative.

I'm completely on board with saying economic activity (trade, production) stabilized and would rank as neutral during this summer. Then it does appear to have gone above that band and solidly positive for 1 quarter (appear because the uncertainty on preliminary data is so high right now) , but 1 quarter by itself means nothing because it is normal to have one quarter of growth within a recession, and it is very doubtful fixed investment and inventory stockpiling will offset the planned decreases in Q4.

If Q4, Q1 are positive then this summer would be declared the end of the recession... but that misses the point. If Q4, Q1 were negative then it would be called an interrupted decline. Aggregate economic activity cannot be simultaneously growing and shrinking at the same time, with one eventually chosen depending on a future outcome. We need to recognize this neutral band for what it is. A stepping stone that leads to more than one path.
The recession does not get dated back to the time when economic activity topped out. It gets marked from the decline on.

So either the term recovery should be dropped in favor of "not a recession" to reflect that it covers both stagnant and growth periods, or there should be 3 terms so that recovery and growth can properly be synonymous.

"People should be, frankly, happy ..." - Lord Blankcheck, Master and Commander of

Well, let's break out the party hats and rock&roll, hallelujah! Strike up the band, and let's get that ticker-tape parade down the canyon of heros scheduled, because FRANKLY, by Glod, people should be happy! Winter's a-comin' and the ski slopes are opening up, and the 2010 Rivas are lookin' prime!

dafox wrote:

Both 'job recoveries' are similar: too many people w/o any actual skills. Those will have a hard time finding work. Theres only so many bar tenders needed.

Or, even worse, a large number of people who think that real, tangible work (and manual labor of any sort) is beneath them. My college professor friends tell me horror stories of the expectations of the next generation. I would go insane in their jobs.

Dawg wrote:

Maybe we should just suck it up and admit this ain't no recovery?

Yes, there hardly seems to be any point in comparing 'recovery' when there manifestly is no such thing (if recovery is defined as net jobs added, or return to former levels of employment). A stimulus / export induced bounce in GDP hardly constitutes a 'recovery'.

Perhaps the post by CR might make more sense as 'Continuing Job Losses post Technical Recession End'.

That said, continuing job losses are really important. Important measures might be:

• peak losses after GDP 'turn', as shown in post
• cumulative job losses after GDP 'turn'

We are still losing jobs at a hell of a rate, which do not look to be being picked up in the establishment survey, though they are being picked up in the household survey.

CR, do these charts look any worse if the birth/deaths are stripped out?

edit: sorry CR, I missed the doomier parts of your post. should have known.

So threetorches, is that snark or no snark?

The most interesting thing about the two graphs in the post are the jobless recoveries of the past 3 recessions (2009, 2001, and 1991) are the worst of all the post-WWII recessions and getting worse in terms of recovery time (2009 probably longer recovery time than 2001 which had a longer recovery time than 1991)

Given the 8 million jobs officially lost in this recession, a mere 600,000 came from the finance, insurance, and real estate industries. This is the sector that is largely responsible for the housing bubble and the entire finance mess yet it is not taking a major cut as it should. Why? The bailouts are targeted in protecting many of these Wall Street paper pushers. In fact, you can see that in the last month it actually added jobs.

This doesn't factor in the millions of 1099 workers in FIRE who are out of work

I believe the mortgage becomes payable immediately. The estate if it has money can pay it off or else they have to sell the house with thre proceeds used to payoff the mortgage and the balance going back to the estate.

When the homeowner dies, the mortgage matures and must be paid
off. Any monthly payment stops. If they're not handed the property
or money, they foreclose. Don't think POA would have done any good.

Did she stash some of the proceeds away?

You can pull out the whole thing, get monthly payments, or any combination.

He should sell immediately, if there is any equity. Only son? Will?
Other assets?

Or like everybody else I know /snark/ just move in and stay there until
he is kicked out.

Interest accrues on the amount disbursed.

Here are the birth/death adjustments:
Fake Jobs 

Just to reiterate:

End of Recession ≠ Beginning of Recovery.

fwiw, NBER on recession dating, the 4 keys:

The committee places particular emphasis on two monthly measures of activity across the entire economy:
(1) personal income less transfer payments, in real terms and
(2) employment. In addition, the committee refers to two indicators with coverage primarily of manufacturing and goods:
(3) industrial production and
(4) the volume of sales of the manufacturing and wholesale-retail sectors adjusted for price changes.

They will definitely take their 18 months or more before declaring the recession over.
It's going to be an awkward decision because election-congress might pass some emergency stimpacks in the first half of next year

CalculatedRisk wrote:

One column assumes the official recession ended in June 2009

Can't we just assume the recession ended when Phil Gramm told us we were whiners?

Hate to beat the dead but perhaps End of Recession = Beginning of Depression

ac, agree! Got popcorn?

EvilHenryPaulson wrote:

(1) personal income less transfer payments, in real terms and
(2) employment.

(1) energyecon: Yep, its that bad
(2) energyecon: EMRATIO - Continued negative acceleration Year Over Year

next!

So whose data is right? Sorry for the length but the point is...CLEAR AS MUD in who reports what about something relatively simple I would think. One says people are going to lower priced meals, while the other shows same store sales of fast food chains declined.

Diners Plan to Spend 20% Less on Restaurant Meals, Study Finds
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601093&sid=aaf17OBUZwrc#

By Courtney Dentch

Nov. 9 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumers plan to spend an average of $11.49 on restaurant meals in the next 12 months, according to a survey released today, down almost 20 percent compared with a March poll.

Most consumers plan to eat out as frequently in the coming year as they did in the past year, according to the survey by restructuring company AlixPartners LLP.

“Folks are starting to return to the restaurant industry slightly, but they’re looking for lower prices,” Adam Werner, a director in the firm’s food service practice, said in a telephone interview. “The customer sentiment improvement hasn’t translated into the restaurant space yet.”

Restaurants including Brinker International Inc.’s Chili’s Grill & Bar and DineEquity Inc.’s Applebee’s Neighborhood Grill and Bar have been offering discounts to win consumers. They’re seeking more diners amid an economic slowdown that has people looking for ways to save money on eating out.

The percentage of people dining out at least weekly rose to 63 percent from 52 percent in March, according to AlixPartners.

Fine-dining restaurants have been hit the worst as diners move to less expensive restaurants, fast-food chains and even convenience-store foods, Werner said. Southfield, Michigan-based AlixPartners surveyed 1,000 consumers for the study.

> Last Updated: November 9, 2009 00:01 EST

Then this:

LOS ANGELES/CHICAGO (Reuters) – McDonald's Corp (MCD.N) said sales at established U.S. restaurants fell 0.1 percent in October, as expected, but its stock ticked up 1.6 percent after sales from the rest of the world buoyed overall results.

.......

Last week, Wendy's/Arby's said sales at established Wendy's restaurants in North America fell 0.1 percent in the latest quarter, pressured in part by the company getting out of the breakfast game in about 300 restaurants. Such sales fell 9 percent at Arby's existing North American locations.

Burger King's system-wide same-restaurant sales fell 4.6 percent in the United States and Canada for the September quarter.

........
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091109/bs_nm/us_mcdonalds

MB, your story about the absent dad takes us back to the last Great Middle Class Shedding of the early '80s. This is what prolonged recessions do to families. They often don't "break up" so much as they simply collapse and decay. Passable marriages become bad, bad marriages cease to be, with or without actual divorce. "Had a wife and kids in Baltimore, Jack/I went out for a ride and I never went back..." Takes a long time to play out. I know one couple who have been living in different states for 17 years. Never did get divorced. Except now it's playing out with college-educated white collar workers, not just blue-collar factory workers.

energyecon wrote:

(1) energyecon: Yep, its that bad
(2) energyecon: EMRATIO - Continued negative acceleration Year Over Year
next!

Careful there energycon,
You might end up with somebody from the govt. accusing you of having a bad attitude. You don't want to be on the list with FoxNews now do you?

They just closed one of the two Wendys in our area.

noob goldberg wrote:

and although I've never been comfortable with them

Curious - why?

Comrade Kristina wrote:

They just closed one of the two Wendys in our area.

I was interested to read over the weekend that McDonald's was shutting down operations in Iceland. They import their beef patties from Germany and, given the exchange rate on the kroner these days, they're too expensive. The Icelanders are going for locally-sourced fast foods instead. The future?

Mission

The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States. It was founded by Congress in 1913 to provide the nation with a safer, more flexible, and more stable monetary and financial system. Over the years, its role in banking and the economy has expanded.
Today, the Federal Reserve's duties fall into four general areas:

• conducting the nation's monetary policy by influencing the monetary and credit conditions in the economy in pursuit of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates
• supervising and regulating banking institutions to ensure the safety and soundness of the nation's banking and financial system and to protect the credit rights of consumers
• maintaining the stability of the financial system and containing systemic risk that may arise in financial markets
• providing financial services to depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign official institutions, including playing a major role in operating the nation's payments system

See? Nothing about the dollar. Good thing with the Yen a 90 and the euro at 1.50. Still. anyone here want to give them some grades on what they claim are their duties?
1 maximum employment
2 stable prices
3 moderate long-term interest rates
4 supervising and regulating banking institutions to ensure the safety and soundness of the nation's banking and financial system
5 protect the credit rights of consumers
6 maintaining the stability of the financial system
7 containing systemic risk

A few less fast "food" restaurants is NOT a bad thing.

energyecon wrote:

keeerist, promise me you will save the second to last round for me cinco if they threaten to lock me up with that crew!

Totalitarianism makes for even stranger bedfellows, huh! BTW, did you catch the SNL spoof on FoxNews on Saturday? Pretty funny, even to me

Blockbuster with large footprint with 'closing' sign in Sunnyvale. Defunct business model?

noob goldberg wrote:

Yeah, I mentioned this last week. It's been for at least a week now.

I'm pretty sure the bars were extending through September, and possibly mid October. Possibly a CR fan working there, but the St Louis Fed has no official fandom policy and if it did then it is being under utilized (eg cash 4 home transactions)

Outsider wrote:

The entire menu will be Filet-of-Fish?

That was my thought, but apparently they managed to scrounge up a beef-like substance from somewhere. Probably extended with cod

Maybe the globe will start culturally becoming less and less like America and more and more like itself.

Could Uncle Sam Steal Your 401k?

Could Uncle Sam Steal Your 401k?

crazyv wrote:

Curious - why?

Mostly due to my own personal ignorance. As far as I could see, it looked like a scam whereby the home 'owner' would receive a payout for up to 40% of the value of the home, which would become due as soon as they passed away. This is fine, but if the home couldn't sell, or couldn't get sell for enough to cover the value of the loan, then what happens.

It just seemed like a really convoluted way to get money. Either sell the house, or take out a HELOC. Why go through the bother of having a little bit paid out every month?

EvilHenryPaulson wrote:

It's too early in the week for a conspiracy theory, can anyone explain to me the St Louis Fed's FRED service monkeying around with the recession dates?

Well, the 2010 elections are 51 weeks away-

Or maybe, US business will reach its realm of bliss - it will become and remain profitable without needing the US consumer.

SNAFU wrote:

Blockbuster with large footprint with 'closing' sign in Sunnyvale. Defunct business model?

Exactly; IIRC, Netflix is big in the burgeoning online movie rental business, which will probably be the new model. That, or sharing old DVDs between you and your friends-

yakety-sax wrote:

Anything to get ahead without actually working.

Who says knifing your coworkers in the back isn't hard work!

Mrs. Gnome and I really like the Netflix service.
---I'm not a paid endorser; yet!

Mrs. Kravitz reporting here to say my neighbor still has someone living in a small/older RV in his driveway.

How well do those things heat? Because NE winters are harsh.

LoserBeachBum wrote:

Kansas is going to be a tough sell?

Native Americans? Casinoland?

apparently Red Box was eating NetFlix's lunch. Then the studios did or wanted to delay the time Red Box could get the rentals because they were blamed for cannibalizing dvd sales. but yeah, Blockbuster is defunct. Their last business model was a target-esh attempt at becoming some kind of REIT

barfly - or Bank of America at $3-4. If only wecoodanode.

Cinco-X (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 12:07 pm

I doubt these folks have "mild" schizophrenia, assuming that such a thing is possible. It's much more likely they suffer from a variant of Narcissistic Personality Disorder.

A mild NPD is part and parcel of our cultural norm now. It makes us far more susceptible to advertising and political propaganda.

Put a sweater on.

Maybe I am missing something but what is it that is actually recovering? The stock market? House prices? Gold? In my view from the street we are still in a recession/depression and we need some totally out-of-the-box changes to see any real improvement. This is the time for the administration to to increase its focus on gnerating new jobs for a sustainable economy and stop propping up the old guard like banks and car companies.

Regarding unqualified people getting jobs and keeping them... I suggest everyone read "Snakes in Suits".

Good suggestion; but this has been the bulk of our economy for a long time, now. Anyone who actually does "work" in a modern office setting is a loser.
It's all about "networking" and "contacts" and "face time" and the art of looking busy while actually scanning job postings for your "move up" position elsewhere.

IBGYBG, baby. Oh, and wherever you go, which I am guessing will be the break-room or the rest-room or your car for a nap, make sure you carry a big file folder with you, just stuffed full of paperwork. Some of which is probably that short story you've secretly been working on, but whatever.

Oh, and walk fast. And don't just PRESS the elevator button - really MASH IT, twice, and look at your watch, and then MASH IT AGAIN.
Hold your cellphone up to your ear, and say things like, "Yeah, I'm on my way up right now - I got sidetracked in recevables, and then they needed me over in you-know-where again ... yes, again; yes, same stuff as last time ... WHERE IS THE DAMN ELEVATOR?!!"

zpaiss, it's just a mental depression...

Outsider, yeah, listening to the doomers here had me convinced these companies had no future - if only I had been more willing to take a chance, like rich - oh well...

I'm expecting the 2010 jobless recovery to outpace the 2009 model.

Cinco-X (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/9/2009 - 12:30 pm

The incomes and portfolios of the folks that really matter, aka TPTB-

The speculative financial economy, in other words. Not that it's a great surprise, given that trillions has been dedicated to keeping it propped up, most of which will never reach the real economy except in trickles.

has netflix been hurt by the reduction in US postal service?

zpaiss wrote:

Maybe I am missing something but whatis it that is actually recovering?

zpaiss, productivity is up and that at the expense of general unemployment is fine with the Obama adminstration.

Alec MacGillis -- Why aren't President Obama's job-creation efforts more direct? - washingtonpost.com

"I think we got the Recovery Act right," Larry Summers, the president's chief economic adviser, said in an interview. "The primary objective of our policy is having more work done, more product produced and more people earning more income. It may be desirable to have a given amount of work shared among more people. But that's not as desirable as expanding the total amount of work."

CR,
could you please differentiate, or clarify, whether you mean neutral or recovery in your posts

Amen, splat.
Amen.

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

The speculative financial economy, in other words. Not that it's a great surprise, given that trillions has been dedicated to keeping it propped up, most of which will never reach the real economy except in trickles.

We're seeing trickle down in action.. ie. it doesn't.
~splat

digital will eventually take over physical but the DVD has a few more years as a delivery device. Content on digital sucks because the studios keep it that way.....why kill off the golden goose while it still lays eggs?

No one company will get an advantage over another......studios like that you can set up a digital service and get virtually the same deal (license-wise) as the bog boys (Itunes, NFLX etc). This is the most important thing they learned from watching the music business kill itself with "exclusive deals".

Ciao
MS

Cinco-X wrote:

I'm an old fart that still watches network TV (no cable), so I'm really not one to ask-

Welcome To Popcorn Hour

Combine that with peer to peer sharing and it is all over for the physical.

If spending government-granted money really were a benefit to the economy, why not simply increase the amounts endlessly?

If you don't think they're already doing that, you're not paying attention.

In a press conference today, the President claimed that the latest extension of unemployment benefits will not only help the unemployed, but the overall economy as recipients spend the money. If spending government-granted money really were a benefit to the economy, why not simply increase the amounts endlessly? Why limit the benefits to the unemployed? Let's make this recovery a real barn burner: send out million-dollar checks to everyone!

Using your brain will get you nowhere in politics or economics.

These fields are simply about telling people what they want to hear in order to facilitate power grabs.

Nothing more.

The priority in this recession is to find jobs for unemployed houses.

or support your public library and get them there. My guess is that if people contributed $20 to their public library for the acquisition of DVD's it would work really well. Sort of a DVD co-operative. I think the whole co-operative model is something that should be explored more.

Pavel,

Very nice, and timing ios great as we are in midst of full rut... had a 4 pt'r run through a glass door at a local elem school scaring the crap out of 4 boys, ran back out and within 10 minutes hit by a bus on the local road...

noob, what blog attracts smart, active investors. Mish's did for a while, and now has many fewer. CR was the academic's dream a few years ago. Now, it's the blue light special crowd's happy home. I'm odd man out and as I'm active and my posted-in-real-time track record speaks well enough that all tables are open to me, I am seeking a forum. Where do you not like to go because it's too nerdy or too focused on position explanation and justification.

I think there needs to be a marketing campaign. "GOLD, it's the next big bubble."

I really love one of the gold ads currently running:

"Gold has never gone to zero".

Pretty sure LEH, GM, FRE and FNM haven't either, but there's not a whole lot of difference between "down 99%" and "zero".

Blackhalo wrote:

I'm an old fart that still watches network TV (no cable), so I'm really not one to ask-

It amazes me that people still catch cable- talk about wasting money to watch garbage.

MS wrote:

Bottom line is that the world doesn't have an appetite for US debt....this remains the last true bastion of available "capital" that can be taken over to fund the ever growing lack of CB participation in our debt issue.

Why worry, when Citi and BofA with their giant capital reserves are right under the Fed's thumb...?

Can't find the link now, but it has been posited that the reverse repos will be used to force treasuries into these wards of the state, for real cash dollars for uncle.

Actually, I think Internet piracy is probably hurting Blockbuster a lot (maybe Netflix too). Entire crystal-clear versions of movies like Inglorious Basterds and District 9 were posted to Youtube less than a week after they were in theaters. When caught, people just pull 'em down and post 'em again under a different account... And of course, digital copies are available on torrents and such.

ac wrote:

Let's make this recovery a real barn burner: send out million-dollar checks to everyone!
BTW that's coming.

$50k loaves of bread too-

but I think it is a safe bet that the Dollar will continue to fall...

in todays world tha means go long on dollar then

cclt - the bio-tech company? Good call. Thanks for the heads-up!

In the 1990s the U.S. economy created a net 22 million jobs, or 2.2 million a year.
From 2000 to the end of 2007, the rate plunged to 900,000 a year.
From 2008 to present the rate is negative ??? so the jobless recovery continues as the stock market rises.
Net Net: the continuing dysfunctional economic system dependent on increasing debt, faux GDP growth, ponzi schemes and bubbles with politicians kicking the can down the road is is very bad news for about 95% of Americans.

Million-dollar checks are NOT coming in the near future IMHO, not to the little people anyway. We're inessential and will be provided for materially by the governmental transfer programs existing and those which are going to exist, and eventually even our ability to participate in the big casino will be curtailed in favor of mandatory "safe" investments for the proletariat. Of course most of us won't have jobs anyway...

zero hedge is the /. of financial blogs.

Help me get this straight. I don't read up on every ridiculous new scam plan anymore. Is the Fed now going to force treasuries on zombie banks in exchange for all kinds of collateral including stocks? Also, are these instruments taken in repo exchange going to be traded at some former value like is happening with mortgages and MBS?

If there is a market crash I'm sure lots of banks will trade their shares in real businesses and assets for their former value in treasuries.

I see the treasuries being worth a lot less for some pretty unavoidable reasons. This makes the whole repo deal the biggest scam yet. Forcing the bailees to eat scat and die.

Well.. if the 'smart' corporate executive class wasn't so keen on off-shoring every US based job thet can find, even the skilled ones, and didn't abuse the H1B visa system until it has become a joke, we'd probably have some hope of adding jobs.

As it stands now welcome to the new jobless economy.
~splat

NOTaREALmerican wrote:

/. ? Current directory? Home directory?

Slashdot.

SNAFU wrote:

How is ungovernable any worse than what is passing for governance now? It just enriches .1% of the population. The rest withers. Empirically irrefutable.
Op-Ed Columnist - Paranoia Strikes Deep - NYTimes.com

Krugmans views sound, well, a little paranoid to me

If this happens to America as a whole, as it all too easily could, the country could become effectively ungovernable in the midst of an ongoing economic disaster.

Maybe so, but those who wish to govern are going to have a hard time justifying it when you have an economic disaster in the wake of the aggressive government activism of the Bush and Obama presidencies.

east west bancorp, the one that took over the failed california bank, is up 51% today. thanks FDIC and taxpayers!!

East West Bancorp, Inc. - Google Finance

Spunkmeyer wrote:

It's encouraging to me that you say that because you've described their particular college demographic pretty well. Small, liberal arts, and very expensive. Very few callouses on any hands, so far as I can tell.

Yah. My department hires work-study students for office work;and we had a hard time getting many applicants even for that -- until last year, when we got 50 for 3 positions, including a few with actual work experience. (In my generation, nearly everybody had work experience at that age.) So now that money's getting tighter in some families more of them are willing to work at our jobs, which are moderately difficult and require a certain degree of organization; but few qualify.

splat wrote:

I'm no fan of CA republicans but if it wasn't for them the state legislature would have managed to tax the rest of the state out of existence.

Agree. The same with prop 13. Without that we'd have taxes like NY & NJ. Politicians are either smart whores or dumb whores, but the result is the same: American government exists to take tax money and give it to their buddies.

splat wrote:

I'm no fan of CA republicans but if it wasn't for them the state legislature would have managed to tax the rest of the state out of existence.

Churchill was something of a pariah until Britain discovered they really needed him. Of course, and soon as the war was over, it was back to the Labor Party-

ac wrote:

aggressive government activism of the Bush and Obama presidencies

Activism on issues that don't matter. Both parties prime-directive is to protect the assets of the top 1%. Which is why both Parties are owned by the same people and the "issues" fought over are meaningless.

"...our jobs, which are moderately difficult and require a certain degree of organization; but few qualify."

A real indictment of the present college student's high school education.

dum luk wrote:

When the Dollar Rallies, the Market Will Crash by Mike Whitney

From the article:

"Everyone who watches the market has noticed the inverse correlation of stocks to the dollar. When the dollar fades, stocks soar. And when the dollar strengthens, stocks plunge. Eventually, the dollar will reverse-course and stage a comeback, probably when Bernanke stops his printing operations. That will trigger the next severe correction which will burst bubbles across all asset classes."

Bernanke is living under the impression that policy-makers in the 30's were to aggressive in tightening monetary conditions. What he'll soon learn is that it'll always be too early. No matter how long he delays, the end result will be a severe realignment. Followed shortly thereafter by Stimulus Program #14 through #22.

Nostalgia for Communism, 20 Years After - Economy * Europe * News * Story - CNBC.com

Nostalgia for Communism, 20 Years After

...Yes, it appears many in the old Soviet bloc like this capitalism thiny when it is good, but now that is is not, some would like a mulligan...

The dollar has dropped about 13 percent against a basket of currencies from its major trading partners in the past seven months. Meanwhile, the MSCI All-Countries World Index of global equities has gained about two-thirds since March and sugar has soared 90 percent this year. The euro has risen 15 percent against the dollar in the past nine months and traded today at $1.4996 at 10:41 a.m. in London, up 1 percent on the day.

U.S. Federal Reserve policy makers, at the end of a two-day policy meeting on Nov. 4, reiterated their intention to keep interest rates “exceptionally low” for “an extended period.”

IMF Signals Low U.S. Rates Funding ‘Carry Trade’ (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

You can't stop the bullshit, you can only hope to contain it to the mainstream media.

As GS goes so goes the nation.

You could look it up.

I doubt that. The government can always govern.

It just depends how socially unacceptable is it to implement the tried and trusted methods of ultimate authority

1. Shooting people who disagree
2. Gulags
3. Re-education centers
4. 'Disappearances', often into 2 or 3

Many former communist states remained in power for decades utilizing such simple but effective methods.
~splat

splat wrote:

I think there needs to be a marketing campaign. "GOLD, it's the next big bubble."

Kind of what I counted on, years ago. Gold is the only truly cynical investment I've ever made.

And as I've discussed before, when J6P starts to pile in, I'm leavin'.

When the Dollar Rallies, the Market Will Crash by Mike Whitney

Ben B. has a Very effective host of tools available to prevent a dollar rally. So, I suspect that it is not likely.

I actually think the markets will tank before the dollar strengthens. Simply because this is the only way that the system makes good on it's leverage capabilities. It makes no sense at all but when you pile out of equity's you have to convert them into some form of payment.....

Just sayin'

Ciao
MS

Blackhalo wrote:

Ben B. has a Very effective host of tools available to prevent a dollar rally. So, I suspect that it is not likely.

If it's a panic-driven market crash, none of his tools will prevent that. It's just money sloshing around the tank, with no discernible baffles to buffer the undulations.

EDIT: And I don't think one will happen before the other; I've always pictured the relationship to be more dynamic, but more likely than not occurring simultaneously.

The massive govi stimulus is a huge distortion.

pavel.chichikov wrote:

most methods are acceptable to most people

Yes. Most people just want normalcy and to worship their nobility and to hear happy thoughts from the nobility's sycophants. Generally, the peasants view the dissenters as the enemy NOT the government that is screwing them. LOVE IT OR LEAVE IT HIPPY, AND GET A HAIRCUT!!!

Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:

Diners Plan to Spend 20% Less on Restaurant Meals, Study Finds

Maybe this change can explain why Google's search terms were up for words like "restaurant"!

"this market is GrrrrrreaT!"

Great for oil, which should make Mr. Putin happy - btw, an officer, not an 'agent.'

the baboons are being fed copious amounts of cinnabons(stimuli) ....they're quite content not to rip our faces just yet.

Searches for 'restaurant coupons' show a fairly startling surge...

Google Trends: restaurant coupons

mal wrote:

Passable marriages become bad, bad marriages cease to be, with or without actual divorce. "Had a wife and kids in Baltimore, Jack/I went out for a ride and I never went back..." Takes a long time to play out. I know one couple who have been living in different states for 17 years. Never did get divorced. Except now it's playing out with college-educated white collar workers, not just blue-collar factory workers.

If you want anecdotes, I have 'em for you!

Jonathan wrote:

YouTube - Talk by Naomi Wolf - The End of America

The unintended consequences of huge government, resulting in a concentration of loot, resulting in a concentration of smart-amoral-scumbags, resulting in the end of democracy. This should have been fixed 50 years ago. But, socialism and fascism are the only viable political systems for the world's most powerful countries (regardless of who they are) so the Naomi Wolf’s of the world are just dreaming.

And, sadly, try explaining this to a big-government Socialist (aka Progressives, Democrat, "new-liberal", whatever) or Fascist ("conservative", Republican, whatever). Both assume the other side will never win again and subsequently capture their fantasy government programs.

If you want a government that's 30% of the GDP instead of 70% of the GDP that makes you an "anarchist". Likewise if you want individuals to be protected against corporate monopolies.

An awful lot of employment was jobbed out to the lowest bidder long ago, as if it's coming back?

Recovering a debt body is never a pleasant task.

mock turtle wrote:

maybe the us economic needs to go to some 12 step meetings

Na. It's best to go with the self-delusion and duplicity which has work so well in getting the country through the previous 50 years. Why change what is working.

maybe the us economic needs to go to some 12 step meetings

Sending the Unabankers to rehab using a "19 step meeting" hasn't really worked...

Anybody who believes we really have 10.2% unemployment is either a fool or an economic charlatan. The real unemployment is between 17.5% and 22.5%. The Great Depression unemployment was at least 25%. We're that close folks.

Moreover, checkout the latest Misery Index:
We're going to eclipse the early 1980s readings (and we have zero percent interest rates compared to 20%+ under Volker!)

The United States Unemployment Rate

Quite the big toe growing in that misery index.....big toe.

Financial/currency crisis Dollar decline...
'Worries about record deficits, run up as the U.S. borrowed hundreds of billions to stimulate an economy wrecked by financial crisis has further diminished foreign demand for U.S. assets making it likely the dollar will weaken further.
Central banks lead subtle shift away from dollar
| Reuters

i've got a trillion dollar question?

In what year will the interest on the national debt surpass $1 triiiiillllllllll1,000,000,000,000nnnnn ?

Likewise, I will never forget watching the elderly woman in support hose being wanded at the airport. Made her lift her arms, poor thing could barely do it. Humiliating and so absurd it was almost surreal.

Yeah, we now have Federal mall-cops, the retarded with badges who fail to find the dummy devices during effectiveness tests. It's the DMV of security. Oh dear, this'll probably get me on another of 'the lists'.
~splat

Financial/currency crisis 'expectations' which lead to acceleration of actual financial/currency crisis decline...
Naomi Wolf - 'The End of America'

splat wrote:

It's arguable that internet electronic sales directly killed Circuit City.

I don't know... I think the Internet offered better customer service.

ac wrote:

Everybody knows what's wrong

I'm not sure they DO know it's wrong. Most people have no clue what makes an "economy" work. What capitalism is supposed to look like. What "winning" the war on drugs (or any other "war", for that matter) would look like. To be a successful "media person" you FIRST need to have duplicity. You've actually got to believe the lie. Then you need self-delusion to turn the lie into truth.

Self-delusion and duplicity make the world work. Being a leader amongst humans is just proving you've mastered your own self-delusion and duplicity to the point that the peasants can't tell you're a scumbag.

SPIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIKE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

rather than putting as much money as possible into as few pockets as possible.

again, what's the argument for not taxing the hell out of them?

PROGRESS REPORT ON THE ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL ACTIONS OF THE LONDON, WASHINGTON AND PITTSBURGH G20 SUMMITS PREPARED BY THE UK CHAIR OF THE G20

http://www.g20.org/Documents/20091107_progress_report_standrews.pdf

Meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, United Kingdom

http://www.g20.org/Documents/2009_communique_standrews.pdf

Somebody must have hurled some more dollars.

Solid Treasury auction.

Just buyin' em, so they can sell them back to Ben tomorrow, pocket a few bips, and pay bonuses.

TAKE THE MARKET ON THAT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

csco selling $5bil in debt! nothing but good news.... 25% margins clearly not enough....must expand...need cash for acquisitions!

booooyaaahahhhahahah