What will replace the spending financed by debt ? Are lenders going to get collective amnesia and forget what just happened. Are we really that stupid that we can be convinced once again that sub -prime can be converted to AAA via Wall Street alchemy? Have we changed a single thing that gave us a growing economy (GDP) but stagnant wages?
mi·rage (m2-räzhZ)
n.
A statistical phenomenon that creates the illusion of hope, often with inverted reflections indicating a far distant recovery, and results from distortion of markets by alternate layers of hot and cool government policies.
Interest rates could rise considerably, putting pricing pressure on homes, and dropping the number of refis to near zero. In addition, many currently affordable adjustable rate mortgages would have payments rise.
Most of the homes in the mod and alleged mod pipelines could go to REO, putting a lot of new inventory into the system.
Unemployment could get worse.
Parts of the US could recover, while others continue in recession. Huge numbers of people could have job offers where they would have to move a long distance. Many will just mail the keys to their bank. This is not an idle worry. If CA, NV, AZ, and FL have dropping prices, budget problems, and outward migration, other places like TX, NC, and VA might be pulling in even more new immigrants from other states.
Accounting scandals and people being indicted for lying to regulators and/or shareholders could scare remaining banks into being more careful on what they report. Loan mod programs and FDIC takeovers could suddenly change, in ways that might be difficult to predict. There might be much more pressure to try to sell off nonperforming loans.
Fannie, Freddie, and FHA underwriting standards might change, reducing the number of people who qualify.
Still no recovery in metrowest Boston housing prices above $400K. Still going down, mebbe 5% a year. It's relentless.
REOs are something we don't have much of in this area. We have a trickle of foreclosures over $400K, but nothing significant. Doesn't mean the market is healthy--far from it.
Higher house prices through moratoria just institutionalizes high inflation with probability one. The question is: when does the tidal wave hit?
Prob with NC, TX, etc., is that there are few jobs there. Immigration is not going to happen unless these states create more jobs.
Fact is, I have a lot more job opportunities in Boston because of all the 25-35 y.o. who left this past decade. Instead of competing with them all in NC for a finite and shrinking set of jobs, my opportunities are expanding because of the large number of boomers in Beantown.
Immigration is tough, and requires a lot of pieces to fall together just so.
We Are Doomed", possibly not as individuals but as a nation.
Curious what in your mind constitutes being "doomed as a nation" . It seems that on this board that extends from "mad max" to Americans having to accept a modest cut in their living standards.
Well, for starters the death of American optimism. From there anything is possible, but I think a slow and relentless grind for decades. For individuals we can elect to make the best of it, because I believe many of the best things in life are free. Yet materialism seems so ingrained in most people's lives I think many will have a hard time seeing what good is left in life and focus only on the bad.
On a separate subject- I urge people to read the book "in the graveyard of empires" by Seth Jones. It is scary that the strategy being proposed by McCrystal is virtually identical as that proposed by the Soviet Union after they invaded Afghanistan.
They offered us a price so reasonable, we didn't even
bargain. There were a few bells and whistles not
included, that the Honda had, which we didn't care about. They delivered the
car to the house after dark.
The only problem with that dealership is that is hard to actually
get on the lot! On a nice corner, but construction happening, and
we turned the wrong way twice.
The hub liked the way the car drove better than either the Honda or
the Fusion.
Glad the Honda dealer was so stupid and unreasonable;
he would've bought a not quite as nice car for lots more money.
I think he was irritated with me for getting verbally mad at them,
and possibly ruining a reasonable deal, but then was very happy.
the Ford people were very nice, but the new Fusion seems to have
problems that my old one doesn't.
I think most of us regular readers here at C.R. would agree that "We Are Doomed", possibly not as individuals but as a nation
No. Despite the the fact that every attempt to manage the credit crisis has succeeding in pushing us closer to the precipice we are not doomed. The most I've changed is moving from "we need to take our medicine and it is going to hurt" to "misdiagnosis means we are going to hurt more, it will cost more and take longer to get well."
P.S. It is no coincidence that I use a medical term when describing the mistakes we've made and continue to make.
The death of American optimism would indeed be tragic and would destroy the glue that holds this nation together. It would certainly challenge the notion of whether a multi-religious, multi- cultural country can hold. I find interesting that the rest of your definition is really spiritual in nature.
From today's Houston Chronicle: Big Oil's lean look fuels area jobs fear If cuts remain permanent, glory days may be over
By BRETT CLANTON
HOUSTON CHRONICLE
Nov. 7, 2009, 9:54PM 404 Error, No such article | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle
The thing is, if the dollar craters in any meaningful way, the service sector will start to add jobs - eventually (that's oil field services such as drilling, fraccing and the like).
They have taken the brunt of the impact so far, particularly the services related to the unconventional natural gas boom (read: shale gas). The downside for them is the insanely high level of natural gas storage that will take some time to work off, say 12-18 months...oilfield services related to liquids would begin to ramp right away...of course, the total numbers are not large enough to have a national impact, but they would definitely in TX.
crazyv, I see ECT speaking of anti-materialism and I don't think that has to be spiritual in nature.
People just need to find out what is really worthwhile in this life and leave the rest behind. There will be an adjustment period because a whole lot of attitudes need to be adjusted, but it will happen.
"we need to take our medicine and it is going to hurt" to "misdiagnosis means we are going to hurt more, it will cost more and take longer to get well."
It is a most apropos metaphor, Dawg - that is exactly how I talk about it with family who don't want to get into macro stats and the like (umm, all of them lol) - this whole thing is the result of not taking our medicine for a generation...
For individuals we can elect to make the best of it, because I believe many of the best things in life are free.
That's cute. The best things in life used to be free. I cannot even visit my local national forests with paying a fee. The illegal fee is waived on Veterans Day. The irony is lost on our overseers.
Well in the end isn't all about optimism and spirituality. Wasn't it the optimism of the American consumer that got us in this mess in the first place. Massive over consumption of things that offer the illusion of happiness. Houses stuffed to the rafters of unused and in many cases unpaid for stuff. As for my optimism, it was crushed during a thirteen year career working in the Federal Government. We are fooling ourselves if we look for the solution from government. If there is a solution it lies within ourselves, our spirit one might say.
volker,
re: trial modifications to permanent modifications
My take from hearing Treasury talk about this during the last TARP COP panel was that their goal was that 75% of trial modifications become permanent. The (I believe it was Herb Allison?) spoke about it was that they have no idea how many will become permanent, his floor was 50% when pressed by Elizabeth Warren but he was deathly afraid of quoting a number and spent like 10 minutes filibustering her.
He seemed to imply that Treasury would adjust this program to get 75% of the temporary modifications into permanent status. That's just my reading from his testimony. He was talking about how this is something never been done before, so there were few models on how to do it... but they would be monitoring and watching and have a goal of 75%.
Don't know if this shoot is or , but the
local fishwrap reports that so far in Brevard County, the percentage
of houses sold under 100k are now nearly equal to the percentage
sold under 100k in 2001. Bet that in 2010, that number will go to
2000 prices. That I think will be the bottom. This area was never,
ever as expensive as Miami.
My successful mod will be successful for so long as
there is no serious repair necessary for the house. Unless
it is caused by a hurricane and insurance pays for it.
Or, possibly until the 2% rate begins to go up 5 years from
now.
volker,
The way I heard; they will do everything they can to adjust and finagle the program so they get 75% of the temporary mods permanent. Of course the question is what is "permanent"? Ms. Warren was then asking, "How many of those permanent loans will not redefault after 5 years..." uhhhh... no answer for that.
Upthread someone commented that there will be regional green shoots--I doubt that can last. We are a divisive and divided populace--but one country. Either the disease gets you, or the cure will. We have neglected the problems for so long that gangrene has set in, and politicians are averse to perform the needed amputations.
sportsfan - what is truly going to be interesting/amusing is how many of the empty and discontented will be looking for their next cheap fix to replace that void of consumer capitalism. Faux asset appreciation allowed them to ignore the long-term horizon and the possibilities of failure and loss which now come forcefully to the front of their world.
I am going to guess GRQ schemes and mini-bubbles are going to abound for awhile.
The entire culture, especially the consumerism, has been crafted by the search for cash flow. Money going around and around was the prime goal. Research dedicated to finding what makes people buy, and how to make them buy when they don't want to. We are hoping for too much to believe the people will find a less material existence on their own.
So . . . the people will be led there, or somewhere else.
Personally I think things are a lot worse than most folk, even here can imagine. One of the failed banks in the UK hs £165BN(GBP) currently on loan against distressed assets. That is almost equal to the whole amount of QE the British government has made to date...that is just one bank(OK two if you count HBOS which was forced on Lloyds)...... Error Page
To try to get through, I said what if you guys won the
lottery and had bought all the houses, and bling you
wanted and were bored. Where would you go from
there? You could immerse yourself in art or music or
philosophy or literature. . . .
what is truly going to be interesting/amusing is how many of the empty and discontented will be looking for their next cheap fix to replace that void of consumer capitalism.
America offers all sorts of drugs, some of which are even legal. I suppose some of the empty and discontented will binge on one or another of them. I'm sure the pushers will try to elevate fads into mini-bubbles.
"It isn't so much about GRQ as it is about getting rich without effort."
Good point. There are ways to do that... Start rich and put large amounts of your money into very low risk assets or even interest-yielding bank accounts. Done.
Overextending yourself on a house with the expectation you will be able to live in it for 20 years of continuous appreciation then sell into a permanent market of buyers and retire to the Caymans... not so much.
In May 2009 Katner was still predicting price declines through 2010... "Khater said his firm is expecting national home prices to bottom out in late 2010". He was wrong then (the last six months have seen one of the broadest and strongest increases in inflation adjusted prices nationally in history), and he is wrong now. The reason REOs have declined is because smart people realized that buying at 20+% below replacement cost was a great deal, government regulations had only a minor effect on REO supply. The continued increase in defaults and 90 day lates is the result of mortgage modification polices that reward those that strategically default, it is a statistical anomaly and it is not resulting in more REOs.
"To try to get through, I said what if you guys won the lottery and had bought all the houses, and bling you wanted and were bored. Where would you go from there?"
That's the genius of American marketing, though. They've created so many ways to spend money and shown them to so many of us plebes through celebrity culture, mass media, etc that our wants are all but insatiable now. There is a materialistic lifestyle pattern for almost every level of income, and if you get a promotion or something, you just rise into the new level of spending.
lawyerliz
what you using? break points are grand isle to ms/al for now suppose to curve right later,
i think shes coming to visit me,she is not welcome,im taking the rug in now
I repeat the mods will be ok until a major repair is needed while
the house is still 'way underwater.
Agree 100%. And when the mod ajusts, which many are set up to do, the payment will be too high again. And at some point (I would think) people will figure out that paying on a house until you are 90 yrs old and having little equity makes no sense at all, especially if you can rent for much cheaper.
MYMV Here in Az our values have dropped to 1998 / 1999 levels and it looks like mid price properties are still dropping.
lawyerliz,
Are you talking about mods under HAMP? Are all mods now being put under the HAMP program? What did you mention about the 2 percent interest rate increase in 5 years?
If wealth concentrations for the top 2% return to levels not seen since the 70s, and the rest of us are still getting our asses kicked, I will entertain notions of this country's failure.
2% for 5 years, then 3, 4, 5, 5 1/4%. Equal or
better than rent for the next 6 years.
40 year term. His kids like the place and he
doesn't want to move.
After the Spoons place of origin, Is the Hyundai an American made car? How much of it is produced in the US? there should be a window sticker stating this and location of assembly. Just curious.
The death of American optimism is greatly exaggerated. Yesterday, it was sub-prime and ethanol. Today it is trial modifications and windmills. We are always chasing something. America always has room for improvement. There are many European who think that America is a big scam and that we can't get away with our lunatic desire for more and better. But we have, we do, we will.
They can adjust the interest rate and lenth of term all they want. Underwater by 30% to 50% is still underwater.
If you are 35 or 40 yrs old with a 40 yr mortgage .... That just doesn't work.
If you are 50% underwater, how long will it take (in a sane market) to get that 50% back?
I believe most Hyundai's are South Korean but they have plants in North America too... a ton of them (and KIA) come through the vehicle processing at Port Hueneme. BMW, Voilkswagon and some other companies bring their cars in this way too.
Of course I don't know if the imports are earmarked for the west coast, and if there are other places where the cars entry into the east coast.
If many of these trial modifications are successful - and become permanent
In my humble opinion true modification that can help home owners is the one which has principal-loan-reduction in it, otherwise it is all cosmetics and would not do much to alleviate the home owners problems.
Is principal-loan-reduction part of this trial modification program?
I thought Hyundai may have an assembly plant here but mostly wondered if they used any parts made here. Korea, China, whats the difference off shore means jobs and wealth gone.
No, maybe it just slipped my mind.... couldn't imagine someone tying the millstone to themselves.
RockyR,
Oh its clear. Us renters get to BOHICA. No one even mentions renters. It's all about crying about those poored unemployed who are getting foreclosed on. All these market forces that would help renters jump into true homeownership... well we just ignore those because its better to have a homedebtor paying a lot more than they should rather than someone rational paying something they can afford. .
Yes indeed. According my to my mortgage calculator monthly pyament onf $250K at 5% for 30 yrs= $1342 and for 40 yrs=1205. We are talking about only 12% smaller reduction in monthly payment, that is very small relief.
I'm not sure Koreans buy American goods... especially since we don't have a free trade plan ratified with them. Seems like the Asian companies are like 2-3 years ahead of us in technology... cell phones... etc. Korea has got an awesome internet infrastructure. Although the size of those countries is tiny compared to America.
I think we'd do best to focus on becoming the world's farmers; as the one advantage America has is land, land, land... so I have no idea why we've fueled a land bubble in the past 20 years as well. Farming conglomeration conspiracy or something?
China buys seven times more Buicks the Americans do. So we play in their yard also which seams to always be forgotten. No doubt things are out of balance but that has been growing long before China.
Report: 237 Millionaires in Congress Among the highlights: Two-hundred-and-thirty-seven members of Congress are millionaires. That’s 44 percent of the body – compared to about 1 percent of Americans overall. CRP says California Republican Rep. Darrell Issa is the richest lawmaker on Capitol Hill, with a net worth estimated at about $251 million. Next in line: Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.), worth about $244.7 million; Sen. Herb Kohl (D-Wis.), worth about $214.5 million; Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), worth about $209.7 million; and Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), worth about $208.8 million.
Until August of this year, the U.S. was the number one trading partner of South Korea, China now imports more goods than the U.S. but the Koreans still buy more goods from the U.S. than from China.
Of late, there's some loud clamoring with respect to the dollar carry trade and global asset Bubbles. Little doubt the "carry trade" (borrowing at low rates in the U.S. to play higher-yielding assets globally) is a meaningful source of global liquidity, although it should not be overstated in the context of rapid synchronized Periphery Credit growth. And, clearly, speculative excess has found its way to "developing markets" (some years ago I would write "liquidity loves inflation" to describe how financial flows inherently gravitate toward the inflating asset classes). But I would stress that a reasonable portion of this year's spectacular market gains are associated with a fundamentally-based revaluation of Periphery and commodity-based assets. There's more to this year's global market moves than mindless buying of risk assets and Bubble excess. Furthermore, I believe the Core-to-Periphery Dynamic is a secular trend that will prove less vulnerable to bursting Bubbles than others would contend. Safe Haven | About a Half Paradigm
Just because a secular trend is giving you a tail-wind doesn't mean you won't lose money in a bubble. House prices will rise... eventually. But it doesn't help the people who aren't able to make their mortgage payments now.
Government stimulus has so far cushioned the world’s largest economy from the harm caused by mounting unemployment, enabling increases in consumer and business spending that are drawing in products from overseas. Exports may also grow as expanding economies in Asia and Europe and a weak dollar drive demand for American goods, giving manufacturing a lift.
“The global economy is back on its feet,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. “U.S. consumers are coming back and the trade deficit is starting to push back out.”
A government report two days ago showed unemployment in October rose to 10.2 percent, the highest level in 26 years. The number of jobs lost since the recession began in December 2007 climbed to 7.3 million.
A collapse in world trade earlier this year brought the U.S. gap down to $26 billion in May, its lowest level since November 1999, as imports plunged even faster than exports.
Government Stimulus
The federal “cash for clunkers” auto trade-in program, which expired in late August, generated momentum in car sales and boosted demand for parts and supplies. Automakers are also beginning to rebuild inventories.
U.S. sales for South Korea-based Hyundai Motor Co. increased in September for the third month in a row, while Toyota Motor Corp. is boosting production of models such as Corollas and Camry sedans to rebuild U.S. inventory.
“Our inventories are continuing to recover with a very good pipeline as we move into the fourth quarter,” Robert Carter, Toyota’s North America sales chief, said on a conference call last month.
First-time tax credits for homebuyers have also helped boost sales of homes, in turn bolstering demand for imported construction materials and appliances.
I beg to differ Chris, US consumers aided by the Govt. are coming back...better...
GM sale in general are about 30%+ up in China YOY. I have read that in the recent past several times. Yes GM NA had a tough year But China did not and the Asian Pacific market management now answers to China first not Detroit. Looks like they are separating from NA. Maybe that is why Opel is so mad at GM refusal to sell Opel. They want to be disconnected with GM NA also. Things are changing and not in Americas favor.
Renters should congratulate themselves on the wise decisions that allow sound sleep. Don't focus on crumbs thrown to homeowners. The only intent of those crumbs is to keep the homeowners willing and able to painfully empty their pockets every month. All benefits flow to the banks.
None of us wins in this arguing.
...divided we fall. And fall. And fall.
GM sale in general are about 30%+ up in China YOY.
Are the cars sold in China cheaper? Cheaper built, lower EPA etc? Cheaper labor?
Just trying to understand why a country in which people earn less can afford more cars.
......it would be interesting to get pavel's take on this......
Yesterday, we visited a quarterly Methodist church sale here in town ......mostly yard sale stuff donations, baked goods, and such, and one of the old gals that work it every time stated the obvious - a LOT of work for the old ladies goes into these sales, but that she noticed the younger gals there have "dried up" over the last 20-years - after hearing this I did some digging on church attendance and found it was going down in most organized religions, up patterns for more diverse "fringe" churches, and UP in the categories of "atheist, agnostic, and "none of the above". If society loses the churches, society also loses the moral fabric, ethics, and any link to any positive nature. Surely the schools aren't teaching or alluding to morals, nor are many parents. THIS consortium of speakers is a good example - some here don't or won't speak of it and some downright "bad-mouth" the thought of any religious concepts. I find it very troubling to see the vast torrent of people getting unknowingly swept down a continually narrowing and steep canyon of an increasingly materialistic and hedonistic world looking for the "elusive ring".
And what does your calculator compare at 2% over 40 vs 30 years?
We ignore the 2nd.
The 2nd is mincemeat, chopped liver. We dare them to foreclose.
After 5 years of default--after the first pay us or else letter, the
Statute of Limitations runs. Of course, they could file foreclosure
and then the borrower stops paying the first. Or, settle for 1k or
something teensy weensy.
Well, it was. Until we gave GMAC, which helps fund GM a few billion dollars more. When GMAC first became a bank to get TARP funds, they "invested" in GM. Just another back door way to funel funds to GM.
Chinese tax incentives for car purchases make C4C look tiny. They are giving cars away in China; everybody is seeing the same big jump in sales. "The fun never ends... as long as the government is buying."
"Are the cars sold in China cheaper? Cheaper built, lower EPA etc? Cheaper labor?
Just trying to understand why a country in which people earn less can afford more cars."
despite the low median income there are still a few hundred million consumers in China who can afford cars and millions who can afford quite expensive cars.
Buick is seen as a quite high end car in China. When I was in Beijing in 2005 it was surprising to see the number of big American cars.
So at some point the 2nd just no longer exists? That means everyone should just stop paying the 2nd or HELOC. Doesn't doing a mod require that the 2nd is somehow handled? I am confused.
I find it very troubling to see the vast torrent of people getting unknowingly swept down a continually narrowing and steep canyon of an increasingly materialistic and hedonistic world looking for the "elusive ring".
BSR - I am in the rural midwest, and even here you can see a dearth of interest by younger folk in religion. But it isn't just religion, it is volunteer organizations, fraternal orders, municipal music/theater, in short almost anything that involves a community organization. It's going to be a very paranoid, very empty world of cold space, hard numbers and building a shrine to your narcissism or a personal kingdom for your immediate family, I'm afraid.
a LOT of work for the old ladies goes into these sales, but that she noticed the younger gals there have "dried up" over the last 20-years - after hearing this I did some digging on church attendance and found it was going down in most organized religions, up patterns for more diverse "fringe" churches, and UP in the categories of "atheist, agnostic, and "none of the above".
That trend has been occurring for 20+ years in the UMC, and many Methodist scholars and theologians have written about the UMC's problem in particular for even longer. I'm unsure how OT we want to take it, but I'll leave it there for now.
.
All of the established Protestant denominations of Christianity in the US have been in steady decline since the 70s. Many of the trends are due to changing demographics within that group--especially among congregations that are/were mostly Caucasian. Another problem has been the ongoing struggle between the Boomer leaders of the church and the younger members, and like in most organizations, the loudest and most determined party--in this case the Boomers--wins the fight. The youth (>30 crowd) just refuse to participate and go home. Some of them end up in other churches that offer more activities for people in that age range, and in the UMC, there is a large number of non-participants who are disenfranchised with the existing organizational issues of the UMC in particular.
.
Churches are social structures, and like other social orders such as the Lions Club, Exchange Club, and Rotary Club, they are being left behind because the new generation does not want to be involved for a variety of reasons.
ll - Did you ever get your pancakes made? Sorry if I missed it upthread but I was just thinking about making some in a bit, and ran across the comments...
BSR
very good points indeed!
and it wakes me from my intellectual slumber when someone has to hit me with a 2 by 4 with the truth.
...
Rajesh.
took the words out of my mouth, I was wondering what kind of cash China was doling out to pump those kind
of numbers.
It's going to be a very paranoid, very empty world of cold space, hard numbers and building a shrine to your narcissism or a personal kingdom for your immediate family, I'm afraid.
This is true from what I see. People have lost faith in too many things, with reason for allot of it. People used to trust neighbors, employers / employees, business contracts, gov (some at least). That seems to be sadly missing now.
I am very lucky that I do have friends, neighbors that I trust.
We were at a party last night for collage kids getting into business, doing student exchange etc. Everyone of them, every single one of them, related to the others as only a possible way to get ahead in the world. I found it both unsettling and ugly.
Cars made in other countries follow their safety and emissions requirement so yes they are considerably cheaper with out those items. The labor cost are far less as well. I doubt they have any real benefits like health and retirement. I picture China as the US in 1950 at the start of the surge in consumer manufacturing and consumption. They have a better long term customer base then the US who is played out.
yagij - We have become pretty stupid when it comes to social intelligence. It's a scary thought that mass culture has taken over a majority of the religious function of our society, but it is about the only commonality left in many cases. And the common worldview that binds its participants... well we know it all too well.
josap,
Heh. Relating to others is the only way to get ahead.
Connections, connections, connections. Young people aren't stupid. No matter how people want to hear about fairness, etc... the way to get jobs is through connections...
My particular class was Humanities, not theology; actually, I
would be more qualified (with some review of course) to teach
that. This was a public community college, and I could only
cover so much, especially considering there really is no such
discipline as "humanities".
I find mythology/theology extremely interesting, nearly always
got As in religion class. Theology was indeed for a while the
Queen of inquiry, but all the productive stuff got chopped off,
leave an increasingly dead end.
Catholicism even teaches (or they taught me; maybe they
changed their minds) that the "deposit of faith" was complete,
and there was no possible future public revelations to anticipate
altho private revelations, like to a saint were possible.
All of the established Protestant denominations of Christianity in the US have been in steady decline since the 70s.
In Europe, being religious is considered freakish. While rates of church attendance is down in the U.S. over previous periods, it is still much higher than in other developed countries. Only in places like Kenya and Brazil do you get more absolute growth in church attendance.
You could immerse yourself in art or music or
philosophy or literature. . . .
Our town voted for a dedicate property tax that we used to fund the book purchases by the public library.- I think you can tell a lot about a town from that.
Rajesh - I wish you would read what I said and not indulge in taking things out of context. For the record I said " the death of American optimism would indeed be tragic".
I have to say it is taking things out of context that makes intelligent discussion impossible. Politicians are so frightened that what they say will be taken out of context - as you have just done- that they end up saying nothing.
In Europe, being religious is considered freakish.
They also have socialized medicine and better worker protections. Odd dynamic, no?
.
I've run into missionaries from South Korea that were sent to the US in attempts to revitalize Christianity in one of the countries that helped bring it to S.Korea. Some of the largest mega-churches in the world are located in S.Korea.
ll - nice Now that is making me hungry -- sounds delicious, So I may have to break from the to throw some substantially-more humble flapjacks together.
Barfly,
I have been around here for several years. I think the human toll and uprooted families are uppermost in this community.
But we know the crumbs being tossed won't help the humans or their families.
However these young adults had no interest in anything else. One young woman said "I don't waste time seeing girl friends anymore. If I go out it is to a business group gathering." When seeing friends is viewed as a waste of time ....
I did not mean to imply that you believe that American optimism is dead. There are many people who do say that. It is those people that I think are mistaken.Certainly, "the death of American optimism would indeed be tragic", my argument is that is a very remote possibility that is not worth worrying about.
Our town voted for a dedicate property tax that we used to fund the book purchases by the public library.- I think you can tell a lot about a town from that.
Local cities here attach a 1% surtax on commercial developments that goes toward art in public places. If you book results are like our art results I hope you like Danielle Steele and "bodice ripper" pulp fiction.
One young woman said "I don't waste time seeing girl friends anymore. If I go out it is to a business group gathering." When seeing friends is viewed as a waste of time ....
Collectively, we made that bed, and collectively, we will lie in it. They learned these practices from somewhere, and to be honest, when has seeing friends helped land you that promotion?
In Medieval times the churches were tourist attractions,
as well as pious places. As they still are. See Canterbury
tales. All those relics were to attract the rubes, as well
as remind church-goers of the holiness of the saints.
The mass culture of any society is the common people, ideas, beliefs and events that people are exposed to that allow a basis for dialog across the whole society. 9/11 is an event that impacted almost everyone in the country. As a society, we need commentators to help interpret and accommodate the impact on our lives. In the past, many of those commentators were religious figures, but more recently there have been few with the stature to reach across community lines.
I think the human toll and uprooted families are uppermost in this community.
you wouldn't know it from a lot of the rather heartless comments made here, but you're right, not all feel that way. My apologies for generalizing. You must admit, though, that anti-union, anti-government, "lookin' out for #1", and the like attitudes is very present here, regardless of their effects on the larger population. I heard a whiff of it in YLSP's post, and had to say something.
Reality sucks and the physics of business are not emotional. Used properly it works far better the emotional decisions. Lead with you heart and you will most likely fail. I personally use emotion in my business dealing but it is last on the list of consideration. I look for a win, win in what I do and usually find it. Hard ball really works for both sides.
that is a very remote possibility that is not worth worrying about.
I think if we should have learned anything it is that remote possibilities are worth worrying about. I believe in American optimism and that is why I believe a sharp and quick cleansing of the system would have been preferable. Instead I fear that we may end up getting is death by a thousand cuts. Nothing will kill optimism more effectively than going through a period false dawns.Unfortunately that is what administration policy is going to give us.
Reality sucks and the physics of business are not emotional. Used properly it works far better the emotional decisions. Lead with you heart and you will most likely fail. I personally use emotion in my business dealing but it is last on the list of consideration. I look for a win, win in what I do and usually find it. Hard ball really works for both sides.
I think this is wrong. Business should be like a sport, play hard but fair. Football, boxing, etc are rough, but not like a brawl with knives and beer bottles. When people start trying to compete by screwing the other guy and not on quality and price, the whole thing breaks down.
Of course this is a hidden problem. We at CR all know that.
What will replace the spending financed by debt ? Are lenders going to get collective amnesia and forget what just happened. Are we really that stupid that we can be convinced once again that sub -prime can be converted to AAA via Wall Street alchemy? Have we changed a single thing that gave us a growing economy (GDP) but stagnant wages?
comrade kristina
you here? are you getting ready for IDA?
mi·rage (m2-räzhZ)
n.
A statistical phenomenon that creates the illusion of hope, often with inverted reflections indicating a far distant recovery, and results from distortion of markets by alternate layers of hot and cool government policies.
Lenders are doing a much higher rate of short sales. That helps the REO numbers.
What could go wrong with the current strategy?
Still no recovery in metrowest Boston housing prices above $400K. Still going down, mebbe 5% a year. It's relentless.
REOs are something we don't have much of in this area. We have a trickle of foreclosures over $400K, but nothing significant. Doesn't mean the market is healthy--far from it.
Higher house prices through moratoria just institutionalizes high inflation with probability one. The question is: when does the tidal wave hit?
"...If many of these trial modifications are successful - and become permanent..."
well, anecdotal evidence suggests this is not likely
crazyv wrote:
No. We have a new stupid assertion, that subprime can be converted to AAA government backed debt, in infinite quantities.
I think most of us regular readers here at C.R. would agree that "We Are Doomed", possibly not as individuals but as a nation.
some investor guy wrote:
This is a prescient observation.
Prob with NC, TX, etc., is that there are few jobs there. Immigration is not going to happen unless these states create more jobs.
Fact is, I have a lot more job opportunities in Boston because of all the 25-35 y.o. who left this past decade. Instead of competing with them all in NC for a finite and shrinking set of jobs, my opportunities are expanding because of the large number of boomers in Beantown.
Immigration is tough, and requires a lot of pieces to fall together just so.
ECT wrote:
Curious what in your mind constitutes being "doomed as a nation" . It seems that on this board that extends from "mad max" to Americans having to accept a modest cut in their living standards.
So you mean the millions of folks without jobs can't pay their mortgages? They can't just refi take out $100K in cash and use that to live off of?
If only we didn't have a massive shortage of mortgage brokers that could help these folks.
Well, for starters the death of American optimism. From there anything is possible, but I think a slow and relentless grind for decades. For individuals we can elect to make the best of it, because I believe many of the best things in life are free. Yet materialism seems so ingrained in most people's lives I think many will have a hard time seeing what good is left in life and focus only on the bad.
On a separate subject- I urge people to read the book "in the graveyard of empires" by Seth Jones. It is scary that the strategy being proposed by McCrystal is virtually identical as that proposed by the Soviet Union after they invaded Afghanistan.
During most of my adult life, I've thought the whole world was an illusion.
Doesn't that make me a Buddhist?
Ok. We bought a Hyundai.
The experience could not have been better.
They offered us a price so reasonable, we didn't even
bargain. There were a few bells and whistles not
included, that the Honda had, which we didn't care about. They delivered the
car to the house after dark.
The only problem with that dealership is that is hard to actually
get on the lot! On a nice corner, but construction happening, and
we turned the wrong way twice.
The hub liked the way the car drove better than either the Honda or
the Fusion.
Glad the Honda dealer was so stupid and unreasonable;
he would've bought a not quite as nice car for lots more money.
I think he was irritated with me for getting verbally mad at them,
and possibly ruining a reasonable deal, but then was very happy.
the Ford people were very nice, but the new Fusion seems to have
problems that my old one doesn't.
ECT wrote:
No. Despite the the fact that every attempt to manage the credit crisis has succeeding in pushing us closer to the precipice we are not doomed. The most I've changed is moving from "we need to take our medicine and it is going to hurt" to "misdiagnosis means we are going to hurt more, it will cost more and take longer to get well."
P.S. It is no coincidence that I use a medical term when describing the mistakes we've made and continue to make.
Yes.
sportsfan wrote:
It's not!?
The death of American optimism would indeed be tragic and would destroy the glue that holds this nation together. It would certainly challenge the notion of whether a multi-religious, multi- cultural country can hold. I find interesting that the rest of your definition is really spiritual in nature.
all levels in Brevard (space coast) County.
lawyerliz wrote:
Not yes. Not no. Just is. It is not a question anyone can answer for you nor a question you should ask yourself.
From today's Houston Chronicle:
Big Oil's lean look fuels area jobs fear
If cuts remain permanent, glory days may be over
By BRETT CLANTON
HOUSTON CHRONICLE
Nov. 7, 2009, 9:54PM
404 Error, No such article | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle
The thing is, if the dollar craters in any meaningful way, the service sector will start to add jobs - eventually (that's oil field services such as drilling, fraccing and the like).
They have taken the brunt of the impact so far, particularly the services related to the unconventional natural gas boom (read: shale gas). The downside for them is the insanely high level of natural gas storage that will take some time to work off, say 12-18 months...oilfield services related to liquids would begin to ramp right away...of course, the total numbers are not large enough to have a national impact, but they would definitely in TX.
Actually, in the last few months we have been spending 'way more than
we usually do.
Curtains, SIL vacation treats, elder tub (not installed yet), and
now car.
crazyv, I see ECT speaking of anti-materialism and I don't think that has to be spiritual in nature.
People just need to find out what is really worthwhile in this life and leave the rest behind. There will be an adjustment period because a whole lot of attitudes need to be adjusted, but it will happen.
lawyerliz wrote:
single handedly propping up your local economy
Rob Dawg wrote:
It is a most apropos metaphor, Dawg - that is exactly how I talk about it with family who don't want to get into macro stats and the like (umm, all of them lol) - this whole thing is the result of not taking our medicine for a generation...
Well, Dawg, the map is not the territory.
The D??? (Dau?) that can be perceived is not
the true Dxxx.
On the other hand, some of what we see and know is
true.
Hehe--which is which?
And all the stupid spin stuff is on top of that.
ECT wrote:
That's cute. The best things in life used to be free. I cannot even visit my local national forests with paying a fee. The illegal fee is waived on Veterans Day. The irony is lost on our overseers.
[We should know much more in Q1 when many of the trial modifications end]
They can be extended with the stroke of a pen by the chosen one... to save the suffering people.
sportsfan wrote:
There will be a large subset of folks that don't embrace it, but are embittered by it.
And there will be politicians that utilize those folks.
tao
Tao - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Tao
energyecon, you got me only by a nanosecond, but you did add a link, so you win.
Well in the end isn't all about optimism and spirituality. Wasn't it the optimism of the American consumer that got us in this mess in the first place. Massive over consumption of things that offer the illusion of happiness. Houses stuffed to the rafters of unused and in many cases unpaid for stuff. As for my optimism, it was crushed during a thirteen year career working in the Federal Government. We are fooling ourselves if we look for the solution from government. If there is a solution it lies within ourselves, our spirit one might say.
sportsfan wrote:
that in my book is what spiritual is all about- but to each his own
sportsfan wrote:
win what? sheesh! does everything have to be some kind of competition?
volker,
re: trial modifications to permanent modifications
My take from hearing Treasury talk about this during the last TARP COP panel was that their goal was that 75% of trial modifications become permanent. The (I believe it was Herb Allison?) spoke about it was that they have no idea how many will become permanent, his floor was 50% when pressed by Elizabeth Warren but he was deathly afraid of quoting a number and spent like 10 minutes filibustering her.
He seemed to imply that Treasury would adjust this program to get 75% of the temporary modifications into permanent status. That's just my reading from his testimony. He was talking about how this is something never been done before, so there were few models on how to do it... but they would be monitoring and watching and have a goal of 75%.
JP wrote:
Sad, but true. Perhaps their offspring can rise above it.
Don't know if this shoot is
or 
, but the
local fishwrap reports that so far in Brevard County, the percentage
of houses sold under 100k are now nearly equal to the percentage
sold under 100k in 2001. Bet that in 2010, that number will go to
2000 prices. That I think will be the bottom. This area was never,
ever as expensive as Miami.
The median house price is down 100k to 120k.
ECT wrote:
no, not even close
Give it some thought and you will agree that it was an intentional channeling of energies by our elected officials.
crazyv wrote:
Fair enough. I guess I extrapolated spiritual to religious and that wasn't accurate on my part.
YLSP wrote:
It's good to have goals, goals lead to ambition.
volker, it's all just a game. That's why I'm a sports fan.
I should go look at what Wiki has to say about Tao.
or to rephrase lawyerliz, "the way that can be spoken of is not the constant way."
My successful mod will be successful for so long as
there is no serious repair necessary for the house. Unless
it is caused by a hurricane and insurance pays for it.
Or, possibly until the 2% rate begins to go up 5 years from
now.
Will go on hurrevac & check on Ida.
I like the map is not the territory.
volker,
The way I heard; they will do everything they can to adjust and finagle the program so they get 75% of the temporary mods permanent. Of course the question is what is "permanent"? Ms. Warren was then asking, "How many of those permanent loans will not redefault after 5 years..." uhhhh... no answer for that.
Upthread someone commented that there will be regional green shoots--I doubt that can last. We are a divisive and divided populace--but one country. Either the disease gets you, or the cure will. We have neglected the problems for so long that gangrene has set in, and politicians are averse to perform the needed amputations.
Weird track forecast.
Tried to do link. Oh, well.
sportsfan - what is truly going to be interesting/amusing is how many of the empty and discontented will be looking for their next cheap fix to replace that void of consumer capitalism. Faux asset appreciation allowed them to ignore the long-term horizon and the possibilities of failure and loss which now come forcefully to the front of their world.
I am going to guess GRQ schemes and mini-bubbles are going to abound for awhile.
lawyerliz wrote:
Stormpulse / Hurricanes, severe weather, tracking, mapping
The entire culture, especially the consumerism, has been crafted by the search for cash flow. Money going around and around was the prime goal. Research dedicated to finding what makes people buy, and how to make them buy when they don't want to. We are hoping for too much to believe the people will find a less material existence on their own.
So . . . the people will be led there, or somewhere else.
The hurrevac track is slightly different.
I have it readed to paste, but don't know how.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
And once again Casey Serin fails sooner and more spectacularly in his position as trend leader. [Island 2012 is moribund.]
It isn't so much about GRQ as it is about getting rich without effort.
Liz, just try pasting the link into your post. KCoop's software will figure out a title from the link.
Anyway, nice day here... :dayo:
Personally I think things are a lot worse than most folk, even here can imagine. One of the failed banks in the UK hs £165BN(GBP) currently on loan against distressed assets. That is almost equal to the whole amount of QE the British government has made to date...that is just one bank(OK two if you count HBOS which was forced on Lloyds)...... Error Page
I'm absolutely gobsmacked.
Welcome low a.
actually that's not necessarily the case.
After hurricane Andrew, I had to replace virtually everything I
owned, nearly. I got shopped out. To an extent, I still
am. I got bored with it.
I hit control v and nothing happened.
Apropos of nothing...
The job descriptions for "Community Organizer," and "Rabble Rouser" aren't that far apart.
Both are descended from demagogue.
You could look it up.
YLSP wrote:
there, I fixed it
I taught Humanities for a while.
To try to get through, I said what if you guys won the
lottery and had bought all the houses, and bling you
wanted and were bored. Where would you go from
there? You could immerse yourself in art or music or
philosophy or literature. . . .
YLSP wrote:
they'll need to take a page out of the docsters and the medical practitioners
Any cancer survivor beyond X days/months/years after treatment etc.
Do I have to save the image I clicked on and then paste?
Maybe I didn't actually save it? Maybe hurrivac is proprietary
and doesn't want viewers to do that?
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
America offers all sorts of drugs, some of which are even legal. I suppose some of the empty and discontented will binge on one or another of them. I'm sure the pushers will try to elevate fads into mini-bubbles.
"It isn't so much about GRQ as it is about getting rich without effort."
Good point. There are ways to do that... Start rich and put large amounts of your money into very low risk assets or even interest-yielding bank accounts. Done.
Overextending yourself on a house with the expectation you will be able to live in it for 20 years of continuous appreciation then sell into a permanent market of buyers and retire to the Caymans... not so much.
I clicked on ? and all I got was gibberish to the effect
that foxfire couldn't connect to local host.
Maybe my view is too simple.
We have too much stuff. The stuff we have is mostly cheap crap.
We buy bigger and bigger crappy houses to put our cheap stuff in.
Makes us look good for the neigbors I guess.
I repeat the mods will be ok until a major repair is needed while
the house is still 'way underwater.
In May 2009 Katner was still predicting price declines through 2010... "Khater said his firm is expecting national home prices to bottom out in late 2010". He was wrong then (the last six months have seen one of the broadest and strongest increases in inflation adjusted prices nationally in history), and he is wrong now. The reason REOs have declined is because smart people realized that buying at 20+% below replacement cost was a great deal, government regulations had only a minor effect on REO supply. The continued increase in defaults and 90 day lates is the result of mortgage modification polices that reward those that strategically default, it is a statistical anomaly and it is not resulting in more REOs.
Does the address bar show on the top, lliz? (the http://etc.etc.com) - that is what you want to copy and paste
The natives are restless. Off to make pancakes.
"To try to get through, I said what if you guys won the lottery and had bought all the houses, and bling you wanted and were bored. Where would you go from there?"
That's the genius of American marketing, though. They've created so many ways to spend money and shown them to so many of us plebes through celebrity culture, mass media, etc that our wants are all but insatiable now. There is a materialistic lifestyle pattern for almost every level of income, and if you get a promotion or something, you just rise into the new level of spending.
Chopped apples or bananas? Or both?
lawyerliz
what you using? break points are grand isle to ms/al for now suppose to curve right later,
i think shes coming to visit me,she is not welcome,im taking the rug in now
Stormpulse / Hurricanes, severe weather, tracking, mapping
Main track is missing NO.
One forecast model (NOGAPS) goes right over NO.
The top of what?
lawyerliz wrote:
Agree 100%. And when the mod ajusts, which many are set up to do, the payment will be too high again. And at some point (I would think) people will figure out that paying on a house until you are 90 yrs old and having little equity makes no sense at all, especially if you can rent for much cheaper.
MYMV Here in Az our values have dropped to 1998 / 1999 levels and it looks like mid price properties are still dropping.
Hurrevac.
What the hub uses. Gets it free at home.
Bill Moyers Journal . THE GOOD SOLDIER | PBS
lawyerliz,
Are you talking about mods under HAMP? Are all mods now being put under the HAMP program? What did you mention about the 2 percent interest rate increase in 5 years?
If wealth concentrations for the top 2% return to levels not seen since the 70s, and the rest of us are still getting our asses kicked, I will entertain notions of this country's failure.
2% for 5 years, then 3, 4, 5, 5 1/4%. Equal or
better than rent for the next 6 years.
40 year term. His kids like the place and he
doesn't want to move.
LL,
After the Spoons place of origin, Is the Hyundai an American made car? How much of it is produced in the US? there should be a window sticker stating this and location of assembly. Just curious.
crazyv wrote:
The death of American optimism is greatly exaggerated. Yesterday, it was sub-prime and ethanol. Today it is trial modifications and windmills. We are always chasing something. America always has room for improvement. There are many European who think that America is a big scam and that we can't get away with our lunatic desire for more and better. But we have, we do, we will.
I am too. The sticker wasn't on the car when they brought it around!!
Will ask the hub. Remember my motto was anywhere but China.
They can adjust the interest rate and lenth of term all they want. Underwater by 30% to 50% is still underwater.
If you are 35 or 40 yrs old with a 40 yr mortgage .... That just doesn't work.
If you are 50% underwater, how long will it take (in a sane market) to get that 50% back?
Pancakes, dammit, pancakes.
JD wrote:
Bull. CS20:
Feb 2009 143.11
Aug 2009 146.00
Not even remotely close to past periods of appreciation.
My guy has a 150k 2nd mtg to ignore, so first is less underwater.
Pancakes!
lawyerliz wrote:
The large Hyundai model is made in Alabama. They also have a factory in Canada making the mid-sized model. Small cars are still made in Korea.
What happens to the 2nd Liz?
what second liz?
I believe most Hyundai's are South Korean but they have plants in North America too... a ton of them (and KIA) come through the vehicle processing at Port Hueneme. BMW, Voilkswagon and some other companies bring their cars in this way too.
Of course I don't know if the imports are earmarked for the west coast, and if there are other places where the cars entry into the east coast.
If many of these trial modifications are successful - and become permanent
In my humble opinion true modification that can help home owners is the one which has principal-loan-reduction in it, otherwise it is all cosmetics and would not do much to alleviate the home owners problems.
Is principal-loan-reduction part of this trial modification program?
Wow; I didn't realize the loan mods were making 40 year mortgages... that's ridiculous!
Rajesh wrote:
I think the "How" is the problem.
I thought Hyundai may have an assembly plant here but mostly wondered if they used any parts made here. Korea, China, whats the difference off shore means jobs and wealth gone.
YLSP wrote:
you really didn't, in your heart of hearts, believe they were engaged in doing the right thing, did you?
Stormpulse / Hurricanes, severe weather, tracking, mapping
volker the viking wrote:
Who is to say it isn't the right thing? At least it isn't as long as many Japanese mortgages!
trial modifications? federal government subsidies to keep people in homes they could never afford? what about those of us who played by the rules?
Counterpointer posted this YouTube vid last night
YouTube - Gene Burnett - Jump You F*#kers (A Song For Wall Street)
what's odd in the vid is that damn sign 'Jump You F**kers'
also was used by me in my slam at TARP almost one year
ago YouTube - What's Wrong with America? Saving Scum like Indian Beggar Pandit & Citibank by Uncle Sugar. Revolt!
....
sorry for pimping my vid... hey given its content it did record 3000 hits,
take that Pandit!
must be the vodka talking...
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
Koreans buy American goods. The Chinese bury the money in their backyard.
crazyv wrote:
Government stimulus financed by Fed printing.
No, maybe it just slipped my mind.... couldn't imagine someone tying the millstone to themselves.
RockyR,
Oh its clear. Us renters get to BOHICA. No one even mentions renters. It's all about crying about those poored unemployed who are getting foreclosed on. All these market forces that would help renters jump into true homeownership... well we just ignore those because its better to have a homedebtor paying a lot more than they should rather than someone rational paying something they can afford. .
Yes indeed. According my to my mortgage calculator monthly pyament onf $250K at 5% for 30 yrs= $1342 and for 40 yrs=1205. We are talking about only 12% smaller reduction in monthly payment, that is very small relief.
I'm not sure Koreans buy American goods... especially since we don't have a free trade plan ratified with them. Seems like the Asian companies are like 2-3 years ahead of us in technology... cell phones... etc. Korea has got an awesome internet infrastructure. Although the size of those countries is tiny compared to America.
I think we'd do best to focus on becoming the world's farmers; as the one advantage America has is land, land, land... so I have no idea why we've fueled a land bubble in the past 20 years as well. Farming conglomeration conspiracy or something?
China buys seven times more Buicks the Americans do. So we play in their yard also which seams to always be forgotten. No doubt things are out of balance but that has been growing long before China.
Report: 237 Millionaires in Congress
Among the highlights: Two-hundred-and-thirty-seven members of Congress are millionaires. That’s 44 percent of the body – compared to about 1 percent of Americans overall. CRP says California Republican Rep. Darrell Issa is the richest lawmaker on Capitol Hill, with a net worth estimated at about $251 million. Next in line: Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.), worth about $244.7 million; Sen. Herb Kohl (D-Wis.), worth about $214.5 million; Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.), worth about $209.7 million; and Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), worth about $208.8 million.
wow. optimism on cr. perhaps the next leg down really is right around the corner!
Freedom from stress is not free.
YLSP wrote:
Until August of this year, the U.S. was the number one trading partner of South Korea, China now imports more goods than the U.S. but the Koreans still buy more goods from the U.S. than from China.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
Cite?
Rajesh wrote:
Remember the Korean War? The Koreans really do hate China.
Doug Noland a couple of days old
RD,
At this moment I can't quit remember what newspaper I read the other day that stated it. Still looking for it.
they won't be playing by the rules again....
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Don't blame the sharks; they can't help it.
tg wrote:
Just because a secular trend is giving you a tail-wind doesn't mean you won't lose money in a bubble. House prices will rise... eventually. But it doesn't help the people who aren't able to make their mortgage payments now.
Found it, My memory was off on the math but still pretty good ratio.
DESIGN | BUICK LACROSSE; How New Buicks Took Shape in China - NY Times
Lobbyist Ben
the article only cites the number of cars sold in 2009... I would expect there is a huge divergence from what
was sold in '08 and '07.
It's all about crying about those poored unemployed who are getting foreclosed on.
yeah, like they had anything to do with becoming unemployed -
because its better to have a homedebtor paying a lot more than they should rather than someone rational paying something they can afford. .
do you even listen to yourself?
wa-first 5 years are at 2%....that should change that figure....
Trade Gap Probably Widened, Imports Grew: U.S. Economy Preview - Bloomberg.com
Government stimulus has so far cushioned the world’s largest economy from the harm caused by mounting unemployment, enabling increases in consumer and business spending that are drawing in products from overseas. Exports may also grow as expanding economies in Asia and Europe and a weak dollar drive demand for American goods, giving manufacturing a lift.
“The global economy is back on its feet,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. “U.S. consumers are coming back and the trade deficit is starting to push back out.”
A government report two days ago showed unemployment in October rose to 10.2 percent, the highest level in 26 years. The number of jobs lost since the recession began in December 2007 climbed to 7.3 million.
A collapse in world trade earlier this year brought the U.S. gap down to $26 billion in May, its lowest level since November 1999, as imports plunged even faster than exports.
Government Stimulus
The federal “cash for clunkers” auto trade-in program, which expired in late August, generated momentum in car sales and boosted demand for parts and supplies. Automakers are also beginning to rebuild inventories.
U.S. sales for South Korea-based Hyundai Motor Co. increased in September for the third month in a row, while Toyota Motor Corp. is boosting production of models such as Corollas and Camry sedans to rebuild U.S. inventory.
“Our inventories are continuing to recover with a very good pipeline as we move into the fourth quarter,” Robert Carter, Toyota’s North America sales chief, said on a conference call last month.
First-time tax credits for homebuyers have also helped boost sales of homes, in turn bolstering demand for imported construction materials and appliances.
I beg to differ Chris, US consumers aided by the Govt. are coming back...better...
GM sale in general are about 30%+ up in China YOY. I have read that in the recent past several times. Yes GM NA had a tough year But China did not and the Asian Pacific market management now answers to China first not Detroit. Looks like they are separating from NA. Maybe that is why Opel is so mad at GM refusal to sell Opel. They want to be disconnected with GM NA also. Things are changing and not in Americas favor.
Renters should congratulate themselves on the wise decisions that allow sound sleep. Don't focus on crumbs thrown to homeowners. The only intent of those crumbs is to keep the homeowners willing and able to painfully empty their pockets every month. All benefits flow to the banks.
None of us wins in this arguing.
...divided we fall. And fall. And fall.
.
....isn't theology ever even suggested anymore?
yeah! and that opel sale was part of rescue package..contracts are no longer valid in the US..they are walked on and then swept away
BSR - nope, God is dad...
low ambition..we have fallen and no clapper is going to bring in the rescue team...
Allah akbar, god hates fags, etc.
Lots of theology going around.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
Are the cars sold in China cheaper? Cheaper built, lower EPA etc? Cheaper labor?
Just trying to understand why a country in which people earn less can afford more cars.
The only intent of those crumbs is to keep the homeowners willing and able to painfully empty their pockets every month.
the intent of those crumbs is to prevent the uprooting of ever more families. But around here the human toll seems to be considered negligible.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Then, we should be studying sociology instead?
......it would be interesting to get pavel's take on this......
Yesterday, we visited a quarterly Methodist church sale here in town ......mostly yard sale stuff donations, baked goods, and such, and one of the old gals that work it every time stated the obvious - a LOT of work for the old ladies goes into these sales, but that she noticed the younger gals there have "dried up" over the last 20-years - after hearing this I did some digging on church attendance and found it was going down in most organized religions, up patterns for more diverse "fringe" churches, and UP in the categories of "atheist, agnostic, and "none of the above". If society loses the churches, society also loses the moral fabric, ethics, and any link to any positive nature. Surely the schools aren't teaching or alluding to morals, nor are many parents. THIS consortium of speakers is a good example - some here don't or won't speak of it and some downright "bad-mouth" the thought of any religious concepts. I find it very troubling to see the vast torrent of people getting unknowingly swept down a continually narrowing and steep canyon of an increasingly materialistic and hedonistic world looking for the "elusive ring".
And what does your calculator compare at 2% over 40 vs 30 years?
We ignore the 2nd.
The 2nd is mincemeat, chopped liver. We dare them to foreclose.
After 5 years of default--after the first pay us or else letter, the
Statute of Limitations runs. Of course, they could file foreclosure
and then the borrower stops paying the first. Or, settle for 1k or
something teensy weensy.
They aren't even calling him any more.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Well, it was. Until we gave GMAC, which helps fund GM a few billion dollars more. When GMAC first became a bank to get TARP funds, they "invested" in GM. Just another back door way to funel funds to GM.
Hoocoodanode?
Congratulations to the BFF Poll winners this week!
The number of "failed" banks was five (5).
Here are the winners:
ArtVandelay22
Broke Not Broken
Nanoo-Nanoo
NGBROI
noob goldberg
OiCu812
picosec
pythia
Rajesh
sporkfed
steelhead
Terry
yagji
Thank you to all who participated!
A new "rule" of the BFF Poll is that voting is automatically closed upon the first announced "failure" for that week.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
Chinese tax incentives for car purchases make C4C look tiny. They are giving cars away in China; everybody is seeing the same big jump in sales. "The fun never ends... as long as the government is buying."
"Are the cars sold in China cheaper? Cheaper built, lower EPA etc? Cheaper labor?
Just trying to understand why a country in which people earn less can afford more cars."
despite the low median income there are still a few hundred million consumers in China who can afford cars and millions who can afford quite expensive cars.
Buick is seen as a quite high end car in China. When I was in Beijing in 2005 it was surprising to see the number of big American cars.
lawyerliz wrote:
So at some point the 2nd just no longer exists? That means everyone should just stop paying the 2nd or HELOC. Doesn't doing a mod require that the 2nd is somehow handled? I am confused.
Black Star Ranch wrote:
God bless you.
BSR - I am in the rural midwest, and even here you can see a dearth of interest by younger folk in religion. But it isn't just religion, it is volunteer organizations, fraternal orders, municipal music/theater, in short almost anything that involves a community organization. It's going to be a very paranoid, very empty world of cold space, hard numbers and building a shrine to your narcissism or a personal kingdom for your immediate family, I'm afraid.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Interest in community organizations doesn't start to climb until the fourth or fifth year of a depression.
At the modification session, they didn't bring up the 2nd (to my surprise)
so I sure as heck didn't.
Black Star Ranch wrote:
That trend has been occurring for 20+ years in the UMC, and many Methodist scholars and theologians have written about the UMC's problem in particular for even longer. I'm unsure how OT we want to take it, but I'll leave it there for now.
.
All of the established Protestant denominations of Christianity in the US have been in steady decline since the 70s. Many of the trends are due to changing demographics within that group--especially among congregations that are/were mostly Caucasian. Another problem has been the ongoing struggle between the Boomer leaders of the church and the younger members, and like in most organizations, the loudest and most determined party--in this case the Boomers--wins the fight. The youth (>30 crowd) just refuse to participate and go home. Some of them end up in other churches that offer more activities for people in that age range, and in the UMC, there is a large number of non-participants who are disenfranchised with the existing organizational issues of the UMC in particular.
.
Churches are social structures, and like other social orders such as the Lions Club, Exchange Club, and Rotary Club, they are being left behind because the new generation does not want to be involved for a variety of reasons.
ll - Did you ever get your pancakes made? Sorry if I missed it upthread
but I was just thinking about making some in a bit, and ran across the comments...
BSR
very good points indeed!
and it wakes me from my intellectual slumber when someone has to hit me with a 2 by 4 with the truth.
...
Rajesh.
took the words out of my mouth, I was wondering what kind of cash China was doling out to pump those kind
of numbers.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
This is true from what I see. People have lost faith in too many things, with reason for allot of it. People used to trust neighbors, employers / employees, business contracts, gov (some at least). That seems to be sadly missing now.
I am very lucky that I do have friends, neighbors that I trust.
We were at a party last night for collage kids getting into business, doing student exchange etc. Everyone of them, every single one of them, related to the others as only a possible way to get ahead in the world. I found it both unsettling and ugly.
Cars made in other countries follow their safety and emissions requirement so yes they are considerably cheaper with out those items. The labor cost are far less as well. I doubt they have any real benefits like health and retirement. I picture China as the US in 1950 at the start of the surge in consumer manufacturing and consumption. They have a better long term customer base then the US who is played out.
yagij - We have become pretty stupid when it comes to social intelligence. It's a scary thought that mass culture has taken over a majority of the religious function of our society, but it is about the only commonality left in many cases. And the common worldview that binds its participants... well we know it all too well.
josap,
Heh. Relating to others is the only way to get ahead.
Connections, connections, connections. Young people aren't stupid. No matter how people want to hear about fairness, etc... the way to get jobs is through connections...
My particular class was Humanities, not theology; actually, I
would be more qualified (with some review of course) to teach
that. This was a public community college, and I could only
cover so much, especially considering there really is no such
discipline as "humanities".
I find mythology/theology extremely interesting, nearly always
got As in religion class. Theology was indeed for a while the
Queen of inquiry, but all the productive stuff got chopped off,
leave an increasingly dead end.
Catholicism even teaches (or they taught me; maybe they
changed their minds) that the "deposit of faith" was complete,
and there was no possible future public revelations to anticipate
altho private revelations, like to a saint were possible.
yagij wrote:
In Europe, being religious is considered freakish. While rates of church attendance is down in the U.S. over previous periods, it is still much higher than in other developed countries. Only in places like Kenya and Brazil do you get more absolute growth in church attendance.
lawyerliz wrote:
Our town voted for a dedicate property tax that we used to fund the book purchases by the public library.- I think you can tell a lot about a town from that.
crazyv
I think I would like the people in your town.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
not true. Religion just participates less in the mass culture function of our society.
Pancakes!!! With cinnamon and chopped bananas and a little
chopped apple, and blueberries, kamut health food store mix,
maple syrup and bilberry jam.
Rajesh - I wish you would read what I said and not indulge in taking things out of context. For the record I said " the death of American optimism would indeed be tragic".
I have to say it is taking things out of context that makes intelligent discussion impossible. Politicians are so frightened that what they say will be taken out of context - as you have just done- that they end up saying nothing.
Cool.
Rajesh wrote:
They also have socialized medicine and better worker protections. Odd dynamic, no?
.
I've run into missionaries from South Korea that were sent to the US in attempts to revitalize Christianity in one of the countries that helped bring it to S.Korea. Some of the largest mega-churches in the world are located in S.Korea.
Josap- we also voted a dedicated tax to pay for parks.
ll - nice
Now that is making me hungry -- sounds delicious, So I may have to break from the 
to throw some substantially-more humble flapjacks together.
Cool squared.
Barfly,
I have been around here for several years. I think the human toll and uprooted families are uppermost in this community.
But we know the crumbs being tossed won't help the humans or their families.
At least make 'em with whole grain flour, and add
several eggs. Surely you have cinnamon?
It's not hard to finely chop an apple.
YLSP
I agree that connections help.
However these young adults had no interest in anything else. One young woman said "I don't waste time seeing girl friends anymore. If I go out it is to a business group gathering." When seeing friends is viewed as a waste of time ....
Rajesh - so what is the "mass culture function of our society" exactly?
crazyv wrote:
I did not mean to imply that you believe that American optimism is dead. There are many people who do say that. It is those people that I think are mistaken.Certainly, "the death of American optimism would indeed be tragic", my argument is that is a very remote possibility that is not worth worrying about.
crazyv wrote:
Local cities here attach a 1% surtax on commercial developments that goes toward art in public places. If you book results are like our art results I hope you like Danielle Steele and "bodice ripper" pulp fiction.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Making money?
ll - no apples -- oranges, tangerines, and a couple of bananas. yes on cinnamon.
josap wrote:
Collectively, we made that bed, and collectively, we will lie in it. They learned these practices from somewhere, and to be honest, when has seeing friends helped land you that promotion?
In Medieval times the churches were tourist attractions,
as well as pious places. As they still are. See Canterbury
tales. All those relics were to attract the rubes, as well
as remind church-goers of the holiness of the saints.
And the passion plays, etc etc.
Oh, no, MERS!!
yagij wrote:
Acquiring debt & related bobbles. Who needs to actually make money or the things it buys? Passe.
Chop us that banana and add it.
RockyR wrote:
Why do you hate 'Merica?
lawyerliz wrote:
IMAX of the Middle Ages.
dry -
how truly postmodern!
energyecon wrote:
No, you're a MINO! ('Merican In Name Only)
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
The mass culture of any society is the common people, ideas, beliefs and events that people are exposed to that allow a basis for dialog across the whole society. 9/11 is an event that impacted almost everyone in the country. As a society, we need commentators to help interpret and accommodate the impact on our lives. In the past, many of those commentators were religious figures, but more recently there have been few with the stature to reach across community lines.
passion plays - Easy to find, just fall asleep some night when Cinemax is still on. We still got lotsa high culture.
yagij wrote:
I think the human toll and uprooted families are uppermost in this community.
you wouldn't know it from a lot of the rather heartless comments made here, but you're right, not all feel that way. My apologies for generalizing. You must admit, though, that anti-union, anti-government, "lookin' out for #1", and the like attitudes is very present here, regardless of their effects on the larger population. I heard a whiff of it in YLSP's post, and had to say something.
"rather heartless comments"
Reality sucks and the physics of business are not emotional. Used properly it works far better the emotional decisions. Lead with you heart and you will most likely fail. I personally use emotion in my business dealing but it is last on the list of consideration. I look for a win, win in what I do and usually find it. Hard ball really works for both sides.
Rajesh wrote:
I think if we should have learned anything it is that remote possibilities are worth worrying about. I believe in American optimism and that is why I believe a sharp and quick cleansing of the system would have been preferable. Instead I fear that we may end up getting is death by a thousand cuts. Nothing will kill optimism more effectively than going through a period false dawns.Unfortunately that is what administration policy is going to give us.
~
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sun, 11/8/2009 - 9:44 am reply Ignore user JD wrote:
(the last six months have seen one of the broadest and strongest increases in inflation adjusted prices nationally in history)
Bull. CS20:
Feb 2009 143.11
Aug 2009 146.00
Not even remotely close to past periods of appreciation.
It's November 8th where I live. The data may not be public knowledge yet, but September and October had very strong price increases.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
I think this is wrong. Business should be like a sport, play hard but fair. Football, boxing, etc are rough, but not like a brawl with knives and beer bottles. When people start trying to compete by screwing the other guy and not on quality and price, the whole thing breaks down.