Frederick E. Croxton's figures, taken in Buffalo, show what was happening in such [manufacturing] communities: out of 14,909 persons of both sexes willing and able to work, his house-to-house canvassers found in November, 1932, that 46.3 per cent were fully employed, 22.5 per cent were working part time, and as many as 31.2 per cent were unable to find jobs.
SINCE YESTERDAY was a book written in 1939. So he had some hindsight, but not a lot.
I don't like the NYTimes. At best I'm ambivalent when they do a good job of using their resources (graphics, legal, investigative reporting)
I have seen what their reporters are paid. Yet not ONE mention of employment diffusion
I still don't forgive them for employing Ben Stein, among other erosion of the public space. What were they thinking ?!
There's a condo complex that went Ch 11 in my neck of the woods, buttoned up but not anywhere near completion. Turns out they failed to pay property taxes(less than $200), so I decided to pay it. Now I just gotta figure out how to break in and have mail delivered for the next 2 years and I got a shot at adverse possession. Now I just gotta pay next year's prop. taxes($20k+) and I either get 16% interest on my payment or a $1mm+ property for pennies on the dollar.
re: 1980s, the economists' block in contemplating us unemployment
to start: ~6% +/- 0.3% for full employment
July 1980 maxima 7.8%
April 1981 minima: 7.2%
November 1982 maximum: 10.8%
josap
U6 is from household survey, the CPS.
CES, which is where the nonfarm payroll numbers comes from, is the one that finds it fun to net add about 2mn small business jobs temporarily that never did exist
I still don't forgive them for employing Ben Stein, among other erosion of the public space. What were they thinking ?!
And that Judith Miller Pentagon Promoting War Machine WMD propaganda routine, that duped only those incapable of critical thought, which was most of the US population.
They were always the mouth piece for the elite, but that was pathetic,
The NYT has lost all credibility.
Being one of the 10.2% as of 3 weeks ago I will report the following:
I’m an architect and worked in a large international firm. Our office here in NY was a healthy and vibrant 50 on 9/01/08 right before the Wall St. tsunami hit and as of the last go around had been whittled down to 13. The writing was on the wall for myself way back in March, but being as prudent as possible the partners tried to keep as many of us as they could for as long as they could. The whole time things kept getting more and more grim- 10% pay cuts went around and then increased benefit burdens etc… and of course, we were asked to take a lot of vacation- not only because there was less and less work to bill, but to reduce the financial liability the firm had in carrying over the excess/unused vacation time. This is a pertinent point to Barry’s post here-32 hours was more like my typical week this summer and remains so for those remaining.
Why is there no work?
No lending.
Developers cannot get loans for future projects. Of course, in our absurdly overbuilt state right now there seems little need for new real estate, and this seems only just, but the fact that some of our better clients with (to my knowledge) sterling reputations were having trouble was quite disturbing.
Meanwhile, I wistfully look forward to that first unemployment check of $405.00 while I figure out what to do next with my 25 years of experience. I’d volunteer to design the GWBush presidential library but Bob Stern already (shamelessly) took that commission. I don’t think W fans would appreciate my version- and yes- I blame this whole mess on Bush successfully reaching the fruition of Reaganism- the current income tax rates are absurdly slanted towards the top %.
"U-6 was a prestigious position for a captain in the German Navy during the years running up to the war, and her commanders were all First World War veterans. However, once war began, it was painfully clear that U-6 and her sisters were not capable of competing with other nations' larger and faster boats...
In the summer of 1944, with fuel and resources in short supply and the reputation of the type II boats plummeting following a number of fatal accidents, U-6 was removed from service and laid up at Gotenhafen with a skeleton crew to perform maintenance. There she remained until May 1945, when a demolition team blew her up at her berth to prevent her falling into enemy hands."
It's not us. It's the monster. The bank isn't like a man.
Yes, but the bank is only made of men.
No, you're wrong there quite wrong there. The bank is something else than men. It happens that every man in a bank hates what the bank does, and yet the bank does it. The bank is something more than men, I tell you. It's the monster. Men made it, but they can't control it.
So 2M jobs that don't really exist, 800,000 projected adjustment so far this year of additional jobs lost is a rounded 3 million more people out of work.
The real number is quite a bit higher than they are telling us about.
And that doesn't count full time employees that have had a 10% to 20% cut in wages.
one of the Canadian banks has an "Employment Quality Index". Instead of assuming the mix of jobs doesn't change, it tries to track that change in mix by looking at incomes, full or part time, benefits, etc http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/eqi-cda-20091102.pdf
The recent reports have indicated a second wave is beginning. The first ones fired were the lowest on the totem pole. Now they're coming for those with experience, higher pay, more benefits, etc. Whether it be in pay cuts or firings. Then any new jobs are the most basic while good quality positions are under hiring freezes
edit: there is one chart that shows the US version of their employment quality index
Those with experience, higher pay, more benefits, etc. are capable of organizing and mobilizing when idle. Something good will come of all this - probably later than sooner.
Quality has gone down further in the US due to increased health care costs passed on to employees, reduction of 401k matching by employers and in some cases working more hours for the same salary.
josap,
before things got crazy I said to watch EMRATIO, duration of unemployment over any other. the unemployment rate is very sensitive to error with both a volatile numerator and denominator
econompicdata has been doing a very handy set of charts for a few months now EconomPic: Civilian Hours per Week Cliff Dive Continues
my favorite is emratio x average weekly hours. simplistic but robust
If you promise not to kick me out, I'll move in to stand guard when you aren't in and send mail to your unit from my unit. I'm fairly quiet. I do have one cat though, if that isn't an issue. I could use the rent free.
If you're gonna squat to gain adverse possession in my state, you have to demonstrate "notorious" habitation: lights on at night, regular mail delivery(and collection), paying the property taxes. I'm doing it as a gag for now, but the property situation is so FUBAR that I actually could pull it off. Considering the upside, it's worth taking a punt for now.
you just described seniority, who is more likely to riot if laid off -- and this is an honest question -- by age decade? I think you may be right. someone in their 40s has a lot more to lose in terms of possessions and socially because they have kids to look after
I think the oldest / highest compensated would be less likely to riot -- at first -- because they'll just treat it as a temporary early retirement
economists like u3 because they feel the high of 10.8% in the 1983 gives them an upper boundary. a safety blanket they can use to console themselves over something they inadvertently admit a lack of understanding. it also strikes a personal note for the majority of the profession based on graduation rates and academic tenure
BG CIBC World Markets - Economics & Strategy
but be very skeptical of anything CIBC says. they are the stupidest Canadian bank, yet that doesn't necessarily transfer over to the economics reports in general
"economists like u3 because they feel the high of 10.8% in the 1983 gives them an upper boundary. a safety blanket they can use to console themselves over something they inadvertently admit a lack of understanding."
Economy always bounces up, it must, it will, any minute now, keep the faith! 99.9999 percent consumer economy is possible, we can do it!
Experienced folks will have the means, network, focus, and dedication to a cause. Riots are disorganized, but if you can harness the energy with clear thinking and purpose, you can accomplish something.
There are alot of houses that sit vacant, no for sale sign on them in Phx Metro. Bet you could almost have your pick. I don't think the banks are doing any vacancy checks.
Experienced folks will have the means, network, focus, and dedication to a cause. Riots are disorganized, but if you can harness the energy with clear thinking and purpose, you can accomplish something.
You know how quickly and effectively kids my age can organize?
I don't think that is the limiting factor. I think it has to be the popular idea that anything is better than the present alternative.
as communicated by the lyrics of this song GREG MACPHERSON - THE COMPANY STORE LYRICS
He stated "buttoned up but not anywhere near completion" therefore he would be the entire tenant board.
If that's the case, picking locks isn't too difficult but he might just want to order a net set of keys from the manufacturer.
Then, get a security-like outfit and regularly check up on the place. Bonus points for keeping a logbook of patrols.
I don't want to put a nickel in now, nor do I want to even if I pulled it off. Straight arbitrage play, pick it up for under 10 cents on the dollar, flip it for 25 cents.
TJ & the Bear
posted a letter from a laid off architect:
in the letter he wrote - " I’d volunteer to design the GWBush presidential library but Bob Stern already (shamelessly) took that commission."
... back in the 80s I had the pleasure or displeasure to know Robert Stern. I once asked another world famous architect why Stern came off as a complete A-hole? his answer - "cause Bob's got a pear shaped body."
....
The new benchmark is a sign of just how much damage financial crises tend to inflict. A recent book by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff, two economists, found that over the last century the typical crisis had caused the jobless rate in the country where it occurred to rise for almost five years. By that standard, the jobless rate here would continue rising for two more years, through the end of 2011.
In my state, no. To do adverse possession in 2 years requires occupation
So is there even an address attached to this project site to get mail? Are you planning on taking a camper or trailer over there if you're not going to put any money into making it livable? And is it B&E if you can just cut the chain links and swap your lock for the one that is there?
edit:: later you go back with the key and enter with witnesses.
Econ 553 - Krugman's 'currency crisis discussion' reading list...
Roubini is on Krugman's reading list...maybe be good to look at each of these papers more closely again one at a time...I don't think it's a waste of time or just some 'nighttime theory'...it's very relevant to what's happening to the U.S. economy today... Crisis on my mind - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com
Hey Basel if you are still around. I saw in the earlier thread you were thinking of enlisting. I have been thinking of re-enlisting lately. I have noodled around the goarmy.com site and called a local recruiter and will be getting more info for myself. the goarmy site was fun because they have little 'career guide' sections to help you look and see what may fit you. My top 3? Combat arms, Medical and emergency, and aviation. Too bad they dont have a question on that particular questionairre about gender. This bloodthirsty girl will never be on the frontlines. Good luck with your choices. id say ignore the bearded one. Sometimes it does suck in the military but your way of facing it and attitude in dealing with it determines wether you wind up like bearded spock or nuke. and also, c'mon, it was the friggin navy!! of course it was suckage city for him, the navy truly sucks, especially when compared to the Army.
thanks for posting that letter from that architect. back in the 80s I worked for a couple of big names
on a commercial condo conversion deal and through them I met quite a few of the luminaries in the
field. a very fine profession but as remember (a friend later headed Richard Meier's German Unit)
the compensation wasn't all that fantastic but it was the practice that made up for it in its workload
and the lifestyle that followed.
... might be sometime before that guy sees another job in his field. at least we know that the top UE in NY is 405 a month, I don't think that amount has budged since I was last on it in '05.
Under Reagan they started taxing UE benefits. Consider how far 1,620 a month goes in NYC?
Say you're lucky and have a rent controlled 1 bed apt. at around 1100-1250 a month and you've
got maybe 450 left? the TimeWarner bill with Net clocks in at 110 bucks.
.........
Krugie is snide about Samuelson, but there's a germ of a point in there that currency crises are generally studied lumpily. For instance, it wasn't entirely accidental that 5 years after the Asia/Russian crisis, the academic lag had meant a decent amount of data was in on dynamics and policy response, and hey presto another threat was pressing in Argentina. Goes with the 10-11 year bust and mid-point test theory.
This time it'll be enitrely different. We'll still be in the hole at the year 5 mark.
Check out an informed comment to Krugman about that (currency crises) 'reading list' article link above...
'As a former IMF staff member (1966-1989)...it is not rocket science to figure out that an ever increasing ratio of world paper 'wealth' for real output is unsustainable. But, once the inevitable happens, those in authority will feign surprise and assert it could not have been foreseen'.
- Gunnar Tomasson
That is the 'hoocoodanode' moment ('feign surprise and assert it could not have been foreseen'.)
EHP
I lived in NYC from the early 80s until about 4 years ago. I remember the recession of '91-92
cause that's when I got my rent stabilized studio off CPW on west 71st (sadly, I screwed up and let that go in '05)
that was the only time I ever
saw For Rent signs hanging from buildings. My current plans will soon take me back to NYC cause
that's where the publishers are and I need to get back in the loop... I hope there will be opportunities to
pick up a new rental at a good price - I'll even part with say 10-12k in key money to get a rent stabililzed place,
although that might not be enough.
I suspect that in the short term there should be a fair amount of supply of at market apts that you might get a
good deal on on a 2 year lease.
I saw that comment there too. It has me confused as to what comments do and don't get censored.
I think they allow informed comments, so long as they only support what the author wrote in the original article. They also allow uninformed comments of any kind
Indeed, broward. Observe the moral certitude of Dick Cheney.
In other news, the by-now standard dance prior to G20 meetings has begun, with most parties obfuscating their lack of cooperation and ambition, or throwing chaff in the face of the credulous:
rsj: i remember you mentioning that you were thinking about re-enlisting. hmmm. combat arms? no, you won't see me near a firearm anytime soon. good luck!
mof
I did not say those comments were anything but informed. That was the confusing part of why they made it past the censors. I then reasoned that informed comments are allowed so long as they only support the article, and proffer no corrections or contradictory evidence.
IMO comments by Gunnar Tomasson in the Krugman blog seem odd as if he's carrying a chip
or is trying to claim credit for something he did 13 years ago...
I know C meant the Cheney comment in jest but it's probably absurdly apprpriate. The odds are good that this eventually comes down to violence. The 10% tax holding in CA is beyond any reasonable justification.
broward
I didn't say kids my age were going to be on the vanguard of anti-government action.
I said kids my age could organize and accomplish goals as good or better than those with the most workplace seniority. That it wasn't a difference in organizational abilities that would lead to riots or protests or demonstrations.
Which is what you just finished repeating by the way.
Then I went on to question what age decade might be most likely to be on that vanguard, and idly speculated that 40somethings might be the most motivated.
So, please do be more careful about projecting what you think I think onto my posts
I said kids my age could organize and accomplish goals as good or better than those with the most workplace seniority.
There sure seems to be more of a collective mentality in the younger generation. Must be all those non-competitive, everybody's a winner kind of playground games. Collaboration instead of hierarchy. Whether that leads to better organization and accomplishment rather depends on the goal, though.
Duke - goog the guy and it looks like he's got his patter down to about 10 paragraphs - an interview with Icelandic tv and some other snips in Q1 this year all say much the same thing. So, Krugie's comment thread was from Oct 08, and thus we can conclude that Mr Tomasson did not have anything new or useful to say over that period.
He's a mises.org author too.
Guess that makes it conclusive.
But there was a funny onward link from one of the snips:
Then I went on to question what age decade might be most likely to be on that vanguard, and idly speculated that 40somethings might be the most motivated.
In this case (revolution and general mayhem), life stages might always trump generational motivation. Twenties: Less to lose, more idealistic, more optimistic, and more to gain.
edit: darn, josap beat me to it from the other side.
This reminds me of an old movie - The Andromeda Strain. They had to pick somebody for a quick and dangerous job and selected the single male because he had the strongest survival instinct. Great movie.
Where you are in life does make a differance in how you react to stress. Has in my life.
Now in my mid 50s I'm just trying to figure out how to take things a bit easier, really think about how I want to spend any retirement years I might accually get.
current crop of 40somethings,...they're just whiners.
A woman I work with is mid 40s, never married. Her parents still pay for her vacations, health insure, gym membership and cell phone. She earns about 50k a yr and says she doesn't have any money, but doesn't know where it all goes. Makes me nuts.
in the letter he wrote - " I’d volunteer to design the GWBush presidential library but Bob Stern already (shamelessly) took that commission."
... back in the 80s I had the pleasure or displeasure to know Robert Stern. I once asked another world famous architect why Stern came off as a complete A-hole? his answer - "cause Bob's got a pear shaped body.
I'm a Yale School of Architecture grad. We were completely depressed when he pulled all of the strings to become Dean. I can't name anyone who particularly wanted him.
Had people asking me about California's new withholding this week. My coworkers are complaining, but they are acquiescing. Not changing their withholding allowances even though they can.
Feckless
I believe the choice of that guy in the Andromeda Strain was based on the 'Odd Man Hypothesis'
at least it was in the Crichton book. and they also made a good movie out of it...
Which is Worse
interesting ... did you ever study under mario gandelsonas by chance ... I think the god of architecture (pushed paul goldebergers career) was gone up there at Yale by your time.
Bob Stern is a nasty piece of work, IMO.
....
did you finally grow tired of Paul Rudolphs Architecture building?
did you finally grow tired of Paul Rudolphs Architecture building?
I graduated (1998) 3 months before Stern took over. I was a lecturer for the undergrads in Art History and we all used to shred Stern's work in our lectures. Guess I left in time.
The problem with the Rudolph building, which many of us liked aesthetically was that there were real heating issues in the winter. There has been a recent renovation, and I'm not sure if that has been corrected.
BTW, Duke, since we're off-topic, I'm headed to Bangkok and SE Asia over the upcoming holiday. Any recommendations on where to visit? Angkor sounds like it is getting touristy. Luang Prabang and Hue sound interesting.
My partners and I flipped a house where one of the feral Mexican Red Head flocks roosts in winter (summer they disperse into smaller groups or pairs). We did not disclose that at twilight, it was hard to hold a decent conversation because of all the squawking and caterwauling. At that time there were maybe a hundred, but the flock may have split because I've seen another group a few miles away. At least they weren't conures,...some of those have piercing screeches.
I wouldn't mind visiting an exotic developing country. Like Britain; get this the government there just renationalized the railway
It helps that your foreign currency goes a long way, so you can afford to make plans as you go
Which is Worse...
I would not blow off Angkor for Luang Prabang and esp. not Hue.
as I said previously Angkor, you need at least 3 days there, Phnom Penh is good for 2 maybe 3.
and if you bypass the beaches in Thailand then Shianouk has some nice beaches, not Thai level...
or some of the beaches in Vietnam like Na Trang.
I wouldn't mind visiting an exotic developing country. Like Britain
Isn't the problem there the foreign language issue? And somehow I just assumed if your currency had the ruling monarch's visage, it wouldn't be quite as foreign. But I realize that I must have been mistaken, since Bahamanian currency is tied to the dollar.
I wouldn't mind visiting an exotic developing country. Like Britain
Isn't the problem there the foreign language issue? And somehow I just assumed if your currency had the ruling monarch's visage, it wouldn't be quite as foreign. But I realize that I must have been mistaken, since Bahamanian currency is tied to the dollar.
There are some Chelsea fans I can seriously not understand WTF they are saying.
There are some Chelsea fans I can seriously not understand WTF they are saying.
I am told they speak English in the Virgin Islands. I am glad someone told me, because while listening to someone from the islands, I would have never guessed it was English. Oh, and it was straight English, not pidgin or slang or creole, just a peculiar pronunciation pattern.
My Congressman sent me a letter re: FDIC prepayments:
- FDIC says this proposed move is within their powers (well duh!)
- WIth more bank failures looming federal officials are considering another special assessment and borrowing money from Treasury; banking industry prepay might be a middle ground (argh! the law shows preference for these two approaches and precludes any approach FDIC might come up with).
He didn't seem responsive to what I was saying, but I'm not sure he had the right background. It is nice to get Congressional response on federal issues.
I think I mentioned it the other night but whereas I was able to escape
jury duty in NYC for 24 years out here in Cambodia my luck caught up with me,
well, if that's what you could call it... I was Shanghai-ed out of a 'hostess' bar by the
gendarmerie at 4:20 am and frog marched
in shackles to the local constabulary.
where the corrupt judge under pressure from a NGO (Les Enfants sans l'avocats)
sentenced me to Genocide Jury Duty starting the moment the
special tribunal reconvenes...
YLSP
wrote: "He didn't seem responsive to what I was saying, but I'm not sure he had the right background. It is nice to get Congressional response on federal issues."
I get these stupid emails from my CONgressman (finally used the 'CON") and when I reply the ping back message
is something like 'you've been denied access due to security concerns... something like that...
...
Good job YSLP (sorry, it's a mental tick, my first cologne in the 70s was YSL by Yves Saint Laurent. it was a more upmarket version of Hai Karate)
actually, it was more like to quarter to six when the gendarmerie showed up... hey, might be kids on the line here!
Which is Worse, no problem, just as long as you don't over stay your visa by say 90 days or more...
genocide jury duty ain't that bad, check it... per diem is picked up by the United Nations
...
Coop, we need a graphic for Tequila!
duke
This reminds me of an old movie - The Andromeda Strain. They had to pick somebody for a quick and dangerous job and selected the single male because he had the strongest survival instinct. Great movie.
Not my recollection, just the opposite, in fact. The reasoning, called Robbie's Single Man Hypothesis, was that in a sticky situation, where survival was questionable, a famliy man would hesitate, believing his first responsibility is to his family, not the community. And both would be lost.
StickyDownside
I thought it was called Odd man Hypothesis ... my bad.
but you're right, people who were married and perhaps had
a family would choose wrongly, hence Chrichton's Odd Man
moniker. back to waisting away in Tequilaville
Thanks to EHP for the EconomPic hours/wk and eye candy graphs. The second chart is consistent with BLS numbers. Best quote in this thread is FDIC "penny wise and pound foolish is a policy". KUDOES. REBear. I'm actually sympathetic to Bair. She is doing the best she can under extreme circumstances. She isn't responsible for the policy or problems leading up to this gigantic mess. She is also fighting with Geithner, publicly. Her agency was made a relic in 1999 and previously in '95? when Glass-Steagall was abandoned.
I found the mea culpa of the former CitiBank exec regarding pushing for the restructuring of banking interesting but not particularly compelling. These very smart people apparently skipped history at their Ivy League Colleges. What a bunch of BOZOs.
I was commenting on treasury's attempt to save taxpayers couple of billion. If tax credits cannot be sold, Fannie will get money from the treasury (taxpayer) anyways. I don't understand the point of this whole exercise.
Thanks Duke and REBear: I was attempting to be succinct in posting and totally mangled it. Thats what I get for not getting enough before fleshing out thoughts. I knew what you were referring to REBear-just messed it up and to Duke, that was in reference to Reed in this article: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=albMYVE7D578
Do either of you know or anyone here about paying property taxes for the Fannie swap deed for lease deal? I'm trying to find any info about it. I know that govt doesn't have to pay property taxes and that Fannie is in Conservatorship: Does that make them govt? Will they be required to pay property taxes and any BACK taxes owned on property that they take the deeds on?
Other questions I have about that: Is this voluntary and what are the estimated units that is projected to take the deal? Thanks in advance for any info. I'm woefully illiterate about this stuff. What is the structure too and how is the now operating in the red FHA connected to F/F if at all. I remember reading that Countrywide is servicing FHA loans but don't have a link or evidence.
One reason I ask the question about the Fannie loans is that local and state govts are already stressed with evaporating tax revenues, I wonder if this will exacerbate the problem or help it?
" To fully put into perspective today’s data, look at the current level of consumer credit (doesn’t include mortgages, the biggest chunk of consumer credit) relative to GDP. As of Q3, it totaled 17.2% of GDP vs 17.8% at the end of ‘08 , 16.9% at year end ‘00, 15.1% at year end ‘95, 13.8% at year end ‘90 and 11.7% at year end ‘82 just as that economic expansion began."
...This is from Barry's blog, but what is interesting is that in this time of huge U-6 under/unemployment, that consumer credit is already SO much higher than 1982. It means very few have the ability to strap on more credit to prime the economic pump. It appears to me the government is trying to stimulate water to come from a dry well....
No good solutions for a general collapse beyond economic band aids.
We're putting band-aids on major arterial bleeders and a fractured liver, the patient is in shock and needs a transfusion. Even if imminent death is avoided, the patient will be chronically ill and anemic requiring continued hospitalization and close attention/transfusions. Problem is, a shortage of donors for blood. Leeches and vampire are exacerbating the blood loss and profound anemia. We're practicing second century medicine.
The social consequences of what is happening today will mean a paradigm shift in attitudes/actions for generations.
Nanoo-Nanoo
wrote: Do either of you know or anyone here about paying property taxes for the Fannie swap deed for lease deal?
can't help you there but if you ever want to know
what evidence can and can not be introduced in a worldwide tribunal
dealing with crimes against humanity (or 'jus cogens' to the cognoscenti)
I'm here for ya!
N-N, I think that bankers realize it takes political power to ensure that they get bailed out next time just like the last time and they amassed that political clout. Also, this allowed them to pick the regulators who would allow them to profit from the bubble, too . It's most of the rest of us who were clueless, ignorant of banking history, and who are powerless to prevent it from happening again.
The real question is what happens when more and more boomers liquidate their retirement funds early to deal with a lack of income today?
Who is going to be buying stocks and saving money?
Or should I joke Hu? But China is not our market- I suspect we are far more impinged that most believe.
The really funny part is the business community doesn't understand how things are changing, and how workers are now angry at Wall Street, and the banks, especially the banks.
The daft credit card changes seem designed to provoke resentment by the common man, and will ensure their hatred long outlives this event.
I suspect the fundamental changes coming in US society are going to last the rest of my life, and the destruction of debt has consequences far beyond what we sometimes consider reasonable.
Where did the jobs go?, from FT via yves: "CDSs are “anti-social”, he goes on, because those who buy credit insurance often have an incentive to see companies fail. Rather than merely hedging their risks, they are actively hoping to profit from the demise of a target company. This strategy became prevalent in recent years and remains so, as holders of these so-called “basis packages” buy both the debt itself and protection on that debt through CDSs"
The parable of the scorpion and the frog illustrates Wall St as the scorpion and we are the frogs. Wall St in their quest of greed has destroyed our once great nation.
Thanks everyone. Traderwalt, govt was hijacked sometime ago under the radar of most people as we were too busy working and MSM was consolidated and owned by billionaires acting as editors and slaves to those almighty ad-revenues.
The biggest lie was that of the "Contract with America" liberalizing business/banking while their rhetoric cover was that of conservatives preserving family life and the middle class. We see how that worked out.
I listened to my grandmother who I honor as often as possible...she did teach me as she got through GDI with small children and extended family of 8 successfully. I'm grateful to her every day.
rps
wrote: The parable of the scorpion and the frog illustrates Wall St as the scorpion and we are the frogs. Wall St in their quest of greed has destroyed our once great nation...
...
brings to mind a great filmic retelling of that parable in the movie The Crying Game .. now,
back to serious business...
another shot of Tequila!
and
duke
So rather than the old school corporate raiders of the '80s destroying solid companies, it morphed and ruined entire countries as their wealth bought politicians, regulators and legislators. AND it is apparent still in the so-called health care reform which is a GIGANTIC GIFT to the insurance industry-no matter which version gets passed. I'm so angry about it, I compelled to break the china and crystal to get any relief.
Wall St, CONgress, International banks/globalization, and Trade Rivals greatest fear; US CONsumers evolve into US Citizens.
American Revolution, part deux
Step 1. stop cc's for purchases, use cash/checks
Step 2. avoid foreign-made items
Step 3. live within your means and SAVE.
hey, RPS
I thought that the 1st and 2nd Rule of Fight Club was: Never Talk about Fight Club!
(must be the tequila talkin', oops I did it again...)
dukester
rps
the hardest step on the list will #2.google your favorite product excluding food(except hersey's)and you will probably find it is not made in the usa. we just dont make much of anything anymore. pity.
The new "fear" tactics to keep the peasantry caged. Britain did it via the Stamp Act of 1765 as they tried to stop Thomas Paine and others publishing "incendiary" literature against the Crown.
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots & tyrants. It is it's natural manure T. Jefferson
"...here survival was questionable, a famliy man would hesitate, believing his first responsibility is to his family, not the community. And both would be lost."
It's been a hypothesis of mine for some time that one of the reasons for priestly celibacy in the Latin Rite is because celibate men are not so easily intimidated.
except most of those guys are stupid to know what they should be rioting about. Half will get 2/3 will get agitated about gays or guns and the other 1/3 will probably get agitated some owl or the other. Meanwhile what they should agitated about will get lost.
Rps- lets assume for the sake fo the argument that holders of CDS want the company to fail. However, they have very little power to actually make that happen other in the terminal stages where they can vote against a restructuring. IMO this line of argument is no different that arguing that short sellers cause a company to fail.
I personally don't see anything wrong with CDS or any of the myriad of financial instruments. The problem is that they should never have been done in any institution that is deemed to big to fail, supported with tax payer funds or linked to those institutions via repos etc. The interesting thing through the amazing volatility that we had is that no major regulated futures firm went under- much less any exchange.
which is a GIGANTIC GIFT to the insurance industry-
Pity that the morons on the Democratic side can't understand that. A mandate that every body must buy insurance, government subsidies for everybody to buy insurance without a robust and well crafted Public option plan to avoid adverse selection is nothing more than giving the insurance companies more sheep to fleece. That Obama will not stand up for the public option while pushing this pigs slop is proof positive that he just a corporate stooge in some kind of disguise.
Who needs jobs when you have asset appreciation?
To be honest, I feel "marginally attached" to my employment, but I am pretty sure I am not counted in U-6.
Comment from earlier today
Frederick E. Croxton's figures, taken in Buffalo, show what was happening in such [manufacturing] communities: out of 14,909 persons of both sexes willing and able to work, his house-to-house canvassers found in November, 1932, that 46.3 per cent were fully employed, 22.5 per cent were working part time, and as many as 31.2 per cent were unable to find jobs.
SINCE YESTERDAY was a book written in 1939. So he had some hindsight, but not a lot.
I like Rogoff and Reinhardt for the nitty gritty work they have provided us.
Plus they sound like a superhero duo
My assets just got detached from one bank and re-attached to another tonight. I'm in the zombie ethers right now.
hey, wasn't david leonhardt playing the optimist the other day?
I don't like the NYTimes. At best I'm ambivalent when they do a good job of using their resources (graphics, legal, investigative reporting)
I have seen what their reporters are paid. Yet not ONE mention of employment diffusion
I still don't forgive them for employing Ben Stein, among other erosion of the public space. What were they thinking ?!
I see.
you cannot destroy the enemy, friend.
I see your face, I hear your voice.
when you take your love away from me,
its just like murder...
too soon
have yu changed for the better?
I can't believe any of you haven't said it already.
HOOCOODANODE?
There's a condo complex that went Ch 11 in my neck of the woods, buttoned up but not anywhere near completion. Turns out they failed to pay property taxes(less than $200), so I decided to pay it. Now I just gotta figure out how to break in and have mail delivered for the next 2 years and I got a shot at adverse possession. Now I just gotta pay next year's prop. taxes($20k+) and I either get 16% interest on my payment or a $1mm+ property for pennies on the dollar.
The NYT piece may be the first time J6P hears of U6.
The reaction might be interesting.
Does U6 count small business owners that have closed the doors?
YouTube - My Funny Valentine
re: 1980s, the economists' block in contemplating us unemployment
to start: ~6% +/- 0.3% for full employment
July 1980 maxima 7.8%
April 1981 minima: 7.2%
November 1982 maximum: 10.8%
1982-07-01 9.8
1982-08-01 9.8
1982-09-01 10.1
1982-10-01 10.4
1982-11-01 10.8
1982-12-01 10.8
1983-01-01 10.4
1983-02-01 10.4
1983-03-01 10.3
1983-04-01 10.2
1983-05-01 10.1
1983-06-01 10.1
1983-07-01 9.4
the current run up in the unemployment rate started at
2007-03-01 4.4%
josap
U6 is from household survey, the CPS.
CES, which is where the nonfarm payroll numbers comes from, is the one that finds it fun to net add about 2mn small business jobs temporarily that never did exist
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
And that Judith Miller Pentagon Promoting War Machine WMD propaganda routine, that duped only those incapable of critical thought, which was most of the US population.
They were always the mouth piece for the elite, but that was pathetic,
The NYT has lost all credibility.
Nothing found for Blog 2009 11 Some-quick-thoughts-about-jobs #comment-232864
Paul S Says:
November 6th, 2009 at 9:57 pm
Being one of the 10.2% as of 3 weeks ago I will report the following:
I’m an architect and worked in a large international firm. Our office here in NY was a healthy and vibrant 50 on 9/01/08 right before the Wall St. tsunami hit and as of the last go around had been whittled down to 13. The writing was on the wall for myself way back in March, but being as prudent as possible the partners tried to keep as many of us as they could for as long as they could. The whole time things kept getting more and more grim- 10% pay cuts went around and then increased benefit burdens etc… and of course, we were asked to take a lot of vacation- not only because there was less and less work to bill, but to reduce the financial liability the firm had in carrying over the excess/unused vacation time. This is a pertinent point to Barry’s post here-32 hours was more like my typical week this summer and remains so for those remaining.
Why is there no work?
No lending.
Developers cannot get loans for future projects. Of course, in our absurdly overbuilt state right now there seems little need for new real estate, and this seems only just, but the fact that some of our better clients with (to my knowledge) sterling reputations were having trouble was quite disturbing.
Meanwhile, I wistfully look forward to that first unemployment check of $405.00 while I figure out what to do next with my 25 years of experience. I’d volunteer to design the GWBush presidential library but Bob Stern already (shamelessly) took that commission. I don’t think W fans would appreciate my version- and yes- I blame this whole mess on Bush successfully reaching the fruition of Reaganism- the current income tax rates are absurdly slanted towards the top %.
About U6:
"U-6 was a prestigious position for a captain in the German Navy during the years running up to the war, and her commanders were all First World War veterans. However, once war began, it was painfully clear that U-6 and her sisters were not capable of competing with other nations' larger and faster boats...
In the summer of 1944, with fuel and resources in short supply and the reputation of the type II boats plummeting following a number of fatal accidents, U-6 was removed from service and laid up at Gotenhafen with a skeleton crew to perform maintenance. There she remained until May 1945, when a demolition team blew her up at her berth to prevent her falling into enemy hands."
Scary...
It's not us. It's the monster. The bank isn't like a man.
Yes, but the bank is only made of men.
No, you're wrong there quite wrong there. The bank is something else than men. It happens that every man in a bank hates what the bank does, and yet the bank does it. The bank is something more than men, I tell you. It's the monster. Men made it, but they can't control it.
So 2M jobs that don't really exist, 800,000 projected adjustment so far this year of additional jobs lost is a rounded 3 million more people out of work.
The real number is quite a bit higher than they are telling us about.
And that doesn't count full time employees that have had a 10% to 20% cut in wages.
Whoa Speed, are you trippin
??
one of the Canadian banks has an "Employment Quality Index". Instead of assuming the mix of jobs doesn't change, it tries to track that change in mix by looking at incomes, full or part time, benefits, etc
http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/eqi-cda-20091102.pdf
The recent reports have indicated a second wave is beginning. The first ones fired were the lowest on the totem pole. Now they're coming for those with experience, higher pay, more benefits, etc. Whether it be in pay cuts or firings. Then any new jobs are the most basic while good quality positions are under hiring freezes
edit: there is one chart that shows the US version of their employment quality index
alex, why do you have to break in? seems you can just mail delivered with a change of address.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Sounds about right. Those are the people you'd typically want to hold through a recession so as to come out the other side fairly intact.
Those with experience, higher pay, more benefits, etc. are capable of organizing and mobilizing when idle. Something good will come of all this - probably later than sooner.
EHP great charts. Good read, thanks,
Quality has gone down further in the US due to increased health care costs passed on to employees, reduction of 401k matching by employers and in some cases working more hours for the same salary.
josap,
before things got crazy I said to watch EMRATIO, duration of unemployment over any other. the unemployment rate is very sensitive to error with both a volatile numerator and denominator
econompicdata has been doing a very handy set of charts for a few months now
EconomPic: Civilian Hours per Week Cliff Dive Continues
my favorite is emratio x average weekly hours. simplistic but robust
If you promise not to kick me out, I'll move in to stand guard when you aren't in and send mail to your unit from my unit. I'm fairly quiet. I do have one cat though, if that isn't an issue. I could use the rent free.
If you're gonna squat to gain adverse possession in my state, you have to demonstrate "notorious" habitation: lights on at night, regular mail delivery(and collection), paying the property taxes. I'm doing it as a gag for now, but the property situation is so FUBAR that I actually could pull it off. Considering the upside, it's worth taking a punt for now.
Jebuus EHP, that last chart scared me.
Even though I see my friends and neighbors dealing with the reality of no, low, slow jobs - that chart is like a hammer coming down.
Speed wrote:
you just described seniority, who is more likely to riot if laid off -- and this is an honest question -- by age decade? I think you may be right. someone in their 40s has a lot more to lose in terms of possessions and socially because they have kids to look after
I think the oldest / highest compensated would be less likely to riot -- at first -- because they'll just treat it as a temporary early retirement
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
That's interesting ... what website was the pdf link from?
economists like u3 because they feel the high of 10.8% in the 1983 gives them an upper boundary. a safety blanket they can use to console themselves over something they inadvertently admit a lack of understanding. it also strikes a personal note for the majority of the profession based on graduation rates and academic tenure
even if you don't want to commit a felony by breaking and entering, you can still adverse possess the property ex-building itself, no?
BG
CIBC World Markets - Economics & Strategy
but be very skeptical of anything CIBC says. they are the stupidest Canadian bank, yet that doesn't necessarily transfer over to the economics reports in general
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
I agree. Once parents hear "Daddy I'm hungry." all hell will break loose.
"economists like u3 because they feel the high of 10.8% in the 1983 gives them an upper boundary. a safety blanket they can use to console themselves over something they inadvertently admit a lack of understanding."
Economy always bounces up, it must, it will, any minute now, keep the faith!
99.9999 percent consumer economy is possible, we can do it!
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Thanks
josap
You mean "Daddy I'm hungry and sick with Swine Flu because Goldman Sachs got their vaccines administered first"
We are living in some really screwed up times.
I could rant, but that won't solve anything.
In my state, no. To do adverse possession in 2 years requires occupation, when it comes to non occupancy it takes 10.
Experienced folks will have the means, network, focus, and dedication to a cause. Riots are disorganized, but if you can harness the energy with clear thinking and purpose, you can accomplish something.
Alexei
Do it the smart™ way. Bribe the head of the tenant board
Two years isn't that long.
There are alot of houses that sit vacant, no for sale sign on them in Phx Metro. Bet you could almost have your pick. I don't think the banks are doing any vacancy checks.
Speed wrote:
Oh ... so there's a catch.
EHP,
He stated "buttoned up but not anywhere near completion" therefore he would be the entire tenant board.
OT - Tiger is kicking ass in Singapore right now.
Tiger?
The whole complex (a couple of hundred units) is empty, nothing beyond concrete and roughed in plumbing. There's easier places, but none so tempting.
Speed wrote:
You know how quickly and effectively kids my age can organize?
I don't think that is the limiting factor. I think it has to be the popular idea that anything is better than the present alternative.
as communicated by the lyrics of this song
GREG MACPHERSON - THE COMPANY STORE LYRICS
How much cash do you want to put in the place to make it livable now and saleble later?
That may be the real problem.
Woods.
ok, thanks
Really now, josap... how many Tigers do you know?
TJ and The Bear wrote:
If that's the case, picking locks isn't too difficult but he might just want to order a net set of keys from the manufacturer.
Then, get a security-like outfit and regularly check up on the place. Bonus points for keeping a logbook of patrols.
A few interesting, but bleak articles on Canadian (un)employment on the CIBC site.
Thanks EHP ... I guess.
I don't want to put a nickel in now, nor do I want to even if I pulled it off. Straight arbitrage play, pick it up for under 10 cents on the dollar, flip it for 25 cents.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Woods, hurricains, Tamils. couple of chicks at the bar.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Maybe he thought it was prawn prices.
josap wrote:
Those are "cougars". Leave'em alone; they're waiting for Broward.
josap wrote:
Those are cougars.
TJ & the Bear
posted a letter from a laid off architect:
in the letter he wrote - " I’d volunteer to design the GWBush presidential library but Bob Stern already (shamelessly) took that commission."
... back in the 80s I had the pleasure or displeasure to know Robert Stern. I once asked another world famous architect why Stern came off as a complete A-hole? his answer - "cause Bob's got a pear shaped body."
....
TJ and The Bear wrote:
need a new key board
Ah ... too slow.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
TIGER WILLIAMS
duh, what kinds of programs do you watch on your tv box eh?
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Canadians... sheesh!
Tiger Williams was one of my role models ... but I turned out ok anyways.
Tiger Williams has done a lot more ass kicking than tiger woods so of course I assumed it was Dave and not Eldrick
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Really. I wonder if they will even take a gold in Vancouver.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Case in point
Uhhh, I just got back on,...anything worth going back for on the last three threads?
Blackhalo wrote:
Not taking the bait.
sdtfs wrote:
BBF was 5. Unemployment sucks.
The usual.
josap wrote:
I won this week! Woo hoo!
Damn!
BG
cute puppy on your blog, what breed is it?
So is there even an address attached to this project site to get mail? Are you planning on taking a camper or trailer over there if you're not going to put any money into making it livable? And is it B&E if you can just cut the chain links and swap your lock for the one that is there?
edit:: later you go back with the key and enter with witnesses.
Basset Hound/mutt
Econ 553 - Krugman's 'currency crisis discussion' reading list...
Roubini is on Krugman's reading list...maybe be good to look at each of these papers more closely again one at a time...I don't think it's a waste of time or just some 'nighttime theory'...it's very relevant to what's happening to the U.S. economy today...
Crisis on my mind - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com
The picture is actually from google images, but the actual dog is almost identical.
The x-ray is the real deal.
merchants of fear wrote:
nighttime theory = timothy geithner
Hey Basel if you are still around. I saw in the earlier thread you were thinking of enlisting. I have been thinking of re-enlisting lately. I have noodled around the goarmy.com site and called a local recruiter and will be getting more info for myself. the goarmy site was fun because they have little 'career guide' sections to help you look and see what may fit you. My top 3? Combat arms, Medical and emergency, and aviation. Too bad they dont have a question on that particular questionairre about gender. This bloodthirsty girl will never be on the frontlines.
Good luck with your choices. id say ignore the bearded one. Sometimes it does suck in the military but your way of facing it and attitude in dealing with it determines wether you wind up like bearded spock or nuke. and also, c'mon, it was the friggin navy!! of course it was suckage city for him, the navy truly sucks, especially when compared to the Army. 
You're a good person, BG.
• Empirical impact of fiscal stimulus, Determining the size of the fiscal multiplier | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists
compares open + closed, rich + poor economies
• Estimated loss of output / cost of current downturn, Financial crises are different! | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists
time to start treating this as a financial crisis and accept the ramifications
thanks for posting that letter from that architect. back in the 80s I worked for a couple of big names
on a commercial condo conversion deal and through them I met quite a few of the luminaries in the
field. a very fine profession but as remember (a friend later headed Richard Meier's German Unit)
the compensation wasn't all that fantastic but it was the practice that made up for it in its workload
and the lifestyle that followed.
... might be sometime before that guy sees another job in his field. at least we know that the top
UE in NY is 405 a month, I don't think that amount has budged since I was last on it in '05.
Under Reagan they started taxing UE benefits. Consider how far 1,620 a month goes in NYC?
Say you're lucky and have a rent controlled 1 bed apt. at around 1100-1250 a month and you've
got maybe 450 left? the TimeWarner bill with Net clocks in at 110 bucks.
.........
thanks for the link to the Kman post merchants of fear, would not have seen it otherwise
Duke
what expectations would you lay out for NYC RRE from here onward?
Krugie is snide about Samuelson, but there's a germ of a point in there that currency crises are generally studied lumpily. For instance, it wasn't entirely accidental that 5 years after the Asia/Russian crisis, the academic lag had meant a decent amount of data was in on dynamics and policy response, and hey presto another threat was pressing in Argentina. Goes with the 10-11 year bust and mid-point test theory.
This time it'll be enitrely different. We'll still be in the hole at the year 5 mark.
C
EHP - the 2nd link 'Financial crises are different' reminded me of something - in past financial crises there was a lender of last resort US/IMF/WB.
What's the lender of last resort when the US banking system implodes?
Sure EHP, your welcome for the link...
Check out an informed comment to Krugman about that (currency crises) 'reading list' article link above...
'As a former IMF staff member (1966-1989)...it is not rocket science to figure out that an ever increasing ratio of world paper 'wealth' for real output is unsustainable. But, once the inevitable happens, those in authority will feign surprise and assert it could not have been foreseen'.
- Gunnar Tomasson
That is the 'hoocoodanode' moment ('feign surprise and assert it could not have been foreseen'.)
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
Yeah, been asking that question for years now. Nobody seems to have an answer.
Hmmm ...
EHP
I lived in NYC from the early 80s until about 4 years ago. I remember the recession of '91-92
cause that's when I got my rent stabilized studio off CPW on west 71st (sadly, I screwed up and let that go in '05)
that was the only time I ever
saw For Rent signs hanging from buildings. My current plans will soon take me back to NYC cause
that's where the publishers are and I need to get back in the loop... I hope there will be opportunities to
pick up a new rental at a good price - I'll even part with say 10-12k in key money to get a rent stabililzed place,
although that might not be enough.
I suspect that in the short term there should be a fair amount of supply of at market apts that you might get a
good deal on on a 2 year lease.
must sleep now.
good night, morning, afternoon to you all.
I saw that comment there too. It has me confused as to what comments do and don't get censored.
I think they allow informed comments, so long as they only support what the author wrote in the original article. They also allow uninformed comments of any kind
1AM? Ugh.
you just live in the wrong timezone
Twelve threads today. Uncle. UN-CLE!
EHP,
Check 'Krugman' reading list comments by Gunnar Tomasson and Andres Carbacho-Burgos...informed?
Nytol.
Hey, I don't do bestiality.
EHP, don't underestimate the attributes of age.
You gain a certain moral clarity and perspective.
Ulysses Grant and George Patton, for instance.
Indeed, broward. Observe the moral certitude of Dick Cheney.
In other news, the by-now standard dance prior to G20 meetings has begun, with most parties obfuscating their lack of cooperation and ambition, or throwing chaff in the face of the credulous:
BBC NEWS | Business | G20 summit tries to tackle rifts
C
rsj: i remember you mentioning that you were thinking about re-enlisting. hmmm. combat arms? no, you won't see me near a firearm anytime soon. good luck!
mof
I did not say those comments were anything but informed. That was the confusing part of why they made it past the censors. I then reasoned that informed comments are allowed so long as they only support the article, and proffer no corrections or contradictory evidence.
Counterpointer wrote:
Moral certitude and moral clarity - not the same thing, obviously.
Doesn't that just leave the Salvation Army then?
broward
don't underestimate my estimation of the attributes of age
re-read the post that you are following-up to
IMO comments by Gunnar Tomasson in the Krugman blog seem odd as if he's carrying a chip
or is trying to claim credit for something he did 13 years ago...
Organization != action
I know C meant the Cheney comment in jest but it's probably absurdly apprpriate. The odds are good that this eventually comes down to violence. The 10% tax holding in CA is beyond any reasonable justification.
broward wrote:
I gather you mean in an organized way. People are already acting out. More hate speech, domestic violence, homicide/suicide, etc.
broward
I didn't say kids my age were going to be on the vanguard of anti-government action.
I said kids my age could organize and accomplish goals as good or better than those with the most workplace seniority. That it wasn't a difference in organizational abilities that would lead to riots or protests or demonstrations.
Which is what you just finished repeating by the way.
Then I went on to question what age decade might be most likely to be on that vanguard, and idly speculated that 40somethings might be the most motivated.
So, please do be more careful about projecting what you think I think onto my posts
I'm still awake.
Thought I would check back in.
I said kids my age could organize and accomplish goals as good or better than those with the most workplace seniority.
There sure seems to be more of a collective mentality in the younger generation. Must be all those non-competitive, everybody's a winner kind of playground games. Collaboration instead of hierarchy. Whether that leads to better organization and accomplishment rather depends on the goal, though.
Isn't it usually 20 something males that are more prone to violence?
No jobs, hate living at home, no cash for dates, no future to look forward to.
Seems to me that would be the age group to riot and protest.
Duke - goog the guy and it looks like he's got his patter down to about 10 paragraphs - an interview with Icelandic tv and some other snips in Q1 this year all say much the same thing. So, Krugie's comment thread was from Oct 08, and thus we can conclude that Mr Tomasson did not have anything new or useful to say over that period.
He's a mises.org author too.
Guess that makes it conclusive.
But there was a funny onward link from one of the snips:
Children Borrowing Money From Glitnir
Mr Jonsson said Glitnir should have told him borrowing money in the name of his children was illegal...
Did all the tards get sent from Denmark to Iceland way back when?
C
In this case (revolution and general mayhem), life stages might always trump generational motivation. Twenties: Less to lose, more idealistic, more optimistic, and more to gain.
edit: darn, josap beat me to it from the other side.
You rang?
Oh, and that current crop of 40somethings,...they're just whiners.
And probably having mental recessions too.
C
This reminds me of an old movie - The Andromeda Strain. They had to pick somebody for a quick and dangerous job and selected the single male because he had the strongest survival instinct. Great movie.
sdtfs, sorry. I just type faster
Where you are in life does make a differance in how you react to stress. Has in my life.
Now in my mid 50s I'm just trying to figure out how to take things a bit easier, really think about how I want to spend any retirement years I might accually get.
sdtfs wrote:
A woman I work with is mid 40s, never married. Her parents still pay for her vacations, health insure, gym membership and cell phone. She earns about 50k a yr and says she doesn't have any money, but doesn't know where it all goes. Makes me nuts.
Duke of Con Dao wrote:
I'm a Yale School of Architecture grad. We were completely depressed when he pulled all of the strings to become Dean. I can't name anyone who particularly wanted him.
Training the birds how to boot up the computer. (I'm guessing at least two,...a Moluccan and a Double Yellow Amazon.)
Had people asking me about California's new withholding this week. My coworkers are complaining, but they are acquiescing. Not changing their withholding allowances even though they can.
The two Sun Conurs I have may out live me.
I hope they never learn how to turn on the computer.
They have pulled off a key or two though.
Feckless
I believe the choice of that guy in the Andromeda Strain was based on the 'Odd Man Hypothesis'
at least it was in the Crichton book. and they also made a good movie out of it...
Thanks, Duke. You prompted me to read an interesting Wiki explanation.
Which is Worse
interesting ... did you ever study under mario gandelsonas by chance ... I think the god of architecture (pushed paul goldebergers career) was gone up there at Yale by your time.
Bob Stern is a nasty piece of work, IMO.
....
did you finally grow tired of Paul Rudolphs Architecture building?
My neighbor's (Amazon?) parrot has attracted some feral conures. It's starting to sound like Telegraph Hill around here.
Duke of Con Dao wrote:
I graduated (1998) 3 months before Stern took over. I was a lecturer for the undergrads in Art History and we all used to shred Stern's work in our lectures. Guess I left in time.
The problem with the Rudolph building, which many of us liked aesthetically was that there were real heating issues in the winter. There has been a recent renovation, and I'm not sure if that has been corrected.
BTW, Duke, since we're off-topic, I'm headed to Bangkok and SE Asia over the upcoming holiday. Any recommendations on where to visit? Angkor sounds like it is getting touristy. Luang Prabang and Hue sound interesting.
My partners and I flipped a house where one of the feral Mexican Red Head flocks roosts in winter (summer they disperse into smaller groups or pairs). We did not disclose that at twilight, it was hard to hold a decent conversation because of all the squawking and caterwauling. At that time there were maybe a hundred, but the flock may have split because I've seen another group a few miles away. At least they weren't conures,...some of those have piercing screeches.
I wouldn't mind visiting an exotic developing country. Like Britain; get this the government there just renationalized the railway
It helps that your foreign currency goes a long way, so you can afford to make plans as you go
in reply to Comment by gabyjan from thread 'Bank Failure #120: United Commercial Bank, San Francisco, California' [sub:Treasury's attempt to save tax payers 2.5B]
gabyjan wrote:
They save 2.5B using their left hand but give away 250B in their right.
'Penny Wise Pound Foolish' is a policy!
Which is Worse...
I would not blow off Angkor for Luang Prabang and esp. not Hue.
as I said previously Angkor, you need at least 3 days there, Phnom Penh is good for 2 maybe 3.
and if you bypass the beaches in Thailand then Shianouk has some nice beaches, not Thai level...
or some of the beaches in Vietnam like Na Trang.
Isn't the problem there the foreign language issue? And somehow I just assumed if your currency had the ruling monarch's visage, it wouldn't be quite as foreign. But I realize that I must have been mistaken, since Bahamanian currency is tied to the dollar.
sdtfs wrote:
There are some Chelsea fans I can seriously not understand WTF they are saying.
Duke-
Much appreciated, thanks.
I am told they speak English in the Virgin Islands. I am glad someone told me, because while listening to someone from the islands, I would have never guessed it was English. Oh, and it was straight English, not pidgin or slang or creole, just a peculiar pronunciation pattern.
My Congressman sent me a letter re: FDIC prepayments:
- FDIC says this proposed move is within their powers (well duh!)
- WIth more bank failures looming federal officials are considering another special assessment and borrowing money from Treasury; banking industry prepay might be a middle ground (argh! the law shows preference for these two approaches and precludes any approach FDIC might come up with).
He didn't seem responsive to what I was saying, but I'm not sure he had the right background. It is nice to get Congressional response on federal issues.
I think I mentioned it the other night but whereas I was able to escape
jury duty in NYC for 24 years out here in Cambodia my luck caught up with me,
well, if that's what you could call it... I was Shanghai-ed out of a 'hostess' bar by the
gendarmerie at 4:20 am and frog marched
in shackles to the local constabulary.
where the corrupt judge under pressure from a NGO (Les Enfants sans l'avocats)
sentenced me to Genocide Jury Duty starting the moment the
special tribunal reconvenes...
Duke,
Two things in your favor:
YLSP
wrote: "He didn't seem responsive to what I was saying, but I'm not sure he had the right background. It is nice to get Congressional response on federal issues."
I get these stupid emails from my CONgressman (finally used the 'CON") and when I reply the ping back message
is something like 'you've been denied access due to security concerns... something like that...
...
Good job YSLP (sorry, it's a mental tick, my first cologne in the 70s was YSL by Yves Saint Laurent. it was a more upmarket version of Hai Karate)
YLSP wrote:
Replies to topics which they don't support is redundant and wide off the mark.... and of course, the reply button will not work.
"sentenced me to Genocide Jury Duty starting the moment the
special tribunal reconvenes... "
Seriously? Wow, start with "I just love your country, Vietnam"
http://www.schiffforsenate.com/ [website] is dead. Hope its not a cyber attack again.
Duke of Con Dao wrote:
The 4:20 part sounds cool but everything else seems bad. I assume if I'm not on a resident visa I'm subject to that (excepting the 420 part).
actually, it was more like to quarter to six when the gendarmerie showed up... hey, might be kids on the line here!
Which is Worse, no problem, just as long as you don't over stay your visa by say 90 days or more...
genocide jury duty ain't that bad, check it... per diem is picked up by the United Nations
...
Coop, we need a graphic for Tequila!
duke
This reminds me of an old movie - The Andromeda Strain. They had to pick somebody for a quick and dangerous job and selected the single male because he had the strongest survival instinct. Great movie.
Not my recollection, just the opposite, in fact. The reasoning, called Robbie's Single Man Hypothesis, was that in a sticky situation, where survival was questionable, a famliy man would hesitate, believing his first responsibility is to his family, not the community. And both would be lost.
Well, I've been in a lot of sticky situations, and I'm good 'n lost.
EHP - Thanks for this EconomPic: Civilian Hours per Week Cliff Dive Continues -- agree the graph of EMRATIO * HPW is meaningful and shocking.
StickyDownside
I thought it was called Odd man Hypothesis ... my bad.
but you're right, people who were married and perhaps had
a family would choose wrongly, hence Chrichton's Odd Man
moniker.
back to waisting away in Tequilaville
"genocide jury duty ain't that bad, check it... per diem is picked up by the United Nations"
UN Police escorting you? I'd play this one every time they show up:
"bad boys
bad boys
what you want
what you gonna do
when sheriff john brown
come for you
tell me
what you gonna do. "
Thanks to EHP for the EconomPic hours/wk and eye candy graphs. The second chart is consistent with BLS numbers. Best quote in this thread is FDIC "penny wise and pound foolish is a policy". KUDOES. REBear. I'm actually sympathetic to Bair. She is doing the best she can under extreme circumstances. She isn't responsible for the policy or problems leading up to this gigantic mess. She is also fighting with Geithner, publicly. Her agency was made a relic in 1999 and previously in '95? when Glass-Steagall was abandoned.
I found the mea culpa of the former CitiBank exec regarding pushing for the restructuring of banking interesting but not particularly compelling. These very smart people apparently skipped history at their Ivy League Colleges. What a bunch of BOZOs.
tequila!
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
It wasn't about Bair.
I was commenting on treasury's attempt to save taxpayers couple of billion. If tax credits cannot be sold, Fannie will get money from the treasury (taxpayer) anyways. I don't understand the point of this whole exercise.
UPDATE 2-US Treasury to block sale of Fannie Mae tax credits
| Reuters
Fannie Mae Plus Goldman Plus Tax Credits Plus U.S. Treasury Add Up to Big Mess -- Seeking Alpha
Thanks Duke and REBear: I was attempting to be succinct in posting and totally mangled it. Thats what I get for not getting enough
before fleshing out thoughts. I knew what you were referring to REBear-just messed it up and to Duke, that was in reference to Reed in this article: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=albMYVE7D578
Do either of you know or anyone here about paying property taxes for the Fannie swap deed for lease deal? I'm trying to find any info about it. I know that govt doesn't have to pay property taxes and that Fannie is in Conservatorship: Does that make them govt? Will they be required to pay property taxes and any BACK taxes owned on property that they take the deeds on?
Other questions I have about that: Is this voluntary and what are the estimated units that is projected to take the deal? Thanks in advance for any info. I'm woefully illiterate about this stuff. What is the structure too and how is the now operating in the red FHA connected to F/F if at all. I remember reading that Countrywide is servicing FHA loans but don't have a link or evidence.
One reason I ask the question about the Fannie loans is that local and state govts are already stressed with evaporating tax revenues, I wonder if this will exacerbate the problem or help it?
Consumer Credit continues downward trend | The Big Picture
" To fully put into perspective today’s data, look at the current level of consumer credit (doesn’t include mortgages, the biggest chunk of consumer credit) relative to GDP. As of Q3, it totaled 17.2% of GDP vs 17.8% at the end of ‘08 , 16.9% at year end ‘00, 15.1% at year end ‘95, 13.8% at year end ‘90 and 11.7% at year end ‘82 just as that economic expansion began."
...This is from Barry's blog, but what is interesting is that in this time of huge U-6 under/unemployment, that consumer credit is already SO much higher than 1982. It means very few have the ability to strap on more credit to prime the economic pump. It appears to me the government is trying to stimulate water to come from a dry well....
B in T
Alex Witt asking on MSNBC- Where are the jobs?
Not here, a simple answer for a simple question.
Looking to Obama for saving jobs is quite humorous.
Krugman proposed a new CCC- might as well get it up and running soon, we will have a lot of make work programs in the next decade.
I have given up hope on not recreating the 1930s- I find it comical that we struggle so mightily against the tide.
I also consider the news to be nearly worthless.
I have been reading the news from 1930 blog and wonder if someone will read the news from 2009 in 2075 and think plus ca change.
No good solutions for a general collapse beyond economic band aids. I think our period of stability will end soon, back to the soup!
Someday this war's gonna end...
Citizen AllenM wrote:
We're putting band-aids on major arterial bleeders and a fractured liver, the patient is in shock and needs a transfusion. Even if imminent death is avoided, the patient will be chronically ill and anemic requiring continued hospitalization and close attention/transfusions. Problem is, a shortage of donors for blood. Leeches and vampire
are exacerbating the blood loss and profound anemia. We're practicing second century medicine.
The social consequences of what is happening today will mean a paradigm shift in attitudes/actions for generations.
Nanoo-Nanoo
wrote: Do either of you know or anyone here about paying property taxes for the Fannie swap deed for lease deal?
can't help you there but if you ever want to know
what evidence can and can not be introduced in a worldwide tribunal
dealing with crimes against humanity (or 'jus cogens' to the cognoscenti)
I'm here for ya!
none of it matters as long as they keep the stock market at DOW 10k.
N-N, I think that bankers realize it takes political power to ensure that they get bailed out next time just like the last time and they amassed that political clout. Also, this allowed them to pick the regulators who would allow them to profit from the bubble, too . It's most of the rest of us who were clueless, ignorant of banking history, and who are powerless to prevent it from happening again.
Like Potemkin villages, don't you?
The real question is what happens when more and more boomers liquidate their retirement funds early to deal with a lack of income today?
Who is going to be buying stocks and saving money?
Or should I joke Hu? But China is not our market- I suspect we are far more impinged that most believe.
The really funny part is the business community doesn't understand how things are changing, and how workers are now angry at Wall Street, and the banks, especially the banks.
The daft credit card changes seem designed to provoke resentment by the common man, and will ensure their hatred long outlives this event.
I suspect the fundamental changes coming in US society are going to last the rest of my life, and the destruction of debt has consequences far beyond what we sometimes consider reasonable.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Where did the jobs go?, from FT via yves:
"CDSs are “anti-social”, he goes on, because those who buy credit insurance often have an incentive to see companies fail. Rather than merely hedging their risks, they are actively hoping to profit from the demise of a target company. This strategy became prevalent in recent years and remains so, as holders of these so-called “basis packages” buy both the debt itself and protection on that debt through CDSs"
The parable of the scorpion and the frog illustrates Wall St as the scorpion and we are the frogs. Wall St in their quest of greed has destroyed our once great nation.
Thanks everyone. Traderwalt, govt was hijacked sometime ago under the radar of most people as we were too busy working and MSM was consolidated and owned by billionaires acting as editors and slaves to those almighty ad-revenues.
The biggest lie was that of the "Contract with America" liberalizing business/banking while their rhetoric cover was that of conservatives preserving family life and the middle class. We see how that worked out.
I listened to my grandmother who I honor as often as possible...she did teach me as she got through GDI with small children and extended family of 8 successfully. I'm grateful to her every day.
rps
wrote: The parable of the scorpion and the frog illustrates Wall St as the scorpion and we are the frogs. Wall St in their quest of greed has destroyed our once great nation...
...
brings to mind a great filmic retelling of that parable in the movie The Crying Game .. now,
back to serious business...
another shot of Tequila!
and
duke
So rather than the old school corporate raiders of the '80s destroying solid companies, it morphed and ruined entire countries as their wealth bought politicians, regulators and legislators. AND it is apparent still in the so-called health care reform which is a GIGANTIC GIFT to the insurance industry-no matter which version gets passed. I'm so angry about it, I compelled to break the china and crystal to get any relief.
Holy crapola!
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/11/bloggers-right-to-free-speech-and-use.html
Wall St, CONgress, International banks/globalization, and Trade Rivals greatest fear; US CONsumers evolve into US Citizens.
Wall St, CONgress, International banks/globalization, and Trade Rivals greatest fear; US CONsumers evolve into US Citizens.
Step 1. stop cc's for purchases, use cash/checks
Step 2. avoid foreign-made items
Step 3. live within your means and SAVE.
Wall St, CONgress, International banks/globalization, and Trade Rivals greatest fear; US CONsumers evolve into US Citizens.
American Revolution, part deux
Step 1. stop cc's for purchases, use cash/checks
Step 2. avoid foreign-made items
Step 3. live within your means and SAVE.
hey, RPS
I thought that the 1st and 2nd Rule of Fight Club was:
Never Talk about Fight Club!
(must be the tequila talkin', oops I did it again...)
dukester
I have double vision from the caffeine. How do I get rid of it?
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
It wasn't a lie, you heard it wrong, it's "Contract ON America."
rps...thanks for a much needed laugh. I was in Newts congressional district at the time. I can't believe anyone still listens to him.
rps wrote:
Channel Duke and tequlia shots.
Thanks for the laugh regarding the CONTRACT. I was in Newts congressional district at the time, I can't believe he still gets face-time.
rps
the hardest step on the list will #2.google your favorite product excluding food(except hersey's)and you will probably find it is not made in the usa. we just dont make much of anything anymore. pity.
rps
lay off the caffeine for a bit
good morning to all
The new "fear" tactics to keep the peasantry caged. Britain did it via the Stamp Act of 1765 as they tried to stop Thomas Paine and others publishing "incendiary" literature against the Crown.
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots & tyrants. It is it's natural manure T. Jefferson
rps
i would much rather use ink like jefferson ,like to keep my blood.
The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots & tyrants. It is it's natural manure T. Jefferson
If you win (like Jefferson), you get to be quoted and revered. If you don't, they make you live in a cave in Pakistan.
"I hope where ever you are or where ever you're going, you will have a very special day" Mister Rogers
It's a beautiful day in my neighborhood and I'm outta here
Good Morning All!
Congratulations to the BFF Poll winners this week!
The number of "failed" banks was five (5).
Here are the winners:
ArtVandelay22
Broke Not Broken
Nanoo-Nanoo
NGBROI
noob goldberg
OiCu812
picosec
pythia
Rajesh
sporkfed
steelhead
Terry
yagji
Thank you to all who participated!
A new "rule" of the BFF Poll is that voting is automatically closed upon the first announced "failure" for that week.
Have a great weekend, everyone!
"...here survival was questionable, a famliy man would hesitate, believing his first responsibility is to his family, not the community. And both would be lost."
It's been a hypothesis of mine for some time that one of the reasons for priestly celibacy in the Latin Rite is because celibate men are not so easily intimidated.
except most of those guys are stupid to know what they should be rioting about. Half will get 2/3 will get agitated about gays or guns and the other 1/3 will probably get agitated some owl or the other. Meanwhile what they should agitated about will get lost.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
I don't think so - for state tax purposes. E.g. GNMA debt is not exempt from state taxes so I would think the same would apply to FNMA.
Rps- lets assume for the sake fo the argument that holders of CDS want the company to fail. However, they have very little power to actually make that happen other in the terminal stages where they can vote against a restructuring. IMO this line of argument is no different that arguing that short sellers cause a company to fail.
I personally don't see anything wrong with CDS or any of the myriad of financial instruments. The problem is that they should never have been done in any institution that is deemed to big to fail, supported with tax payer funds or linked to those institutions via repos etc. The interesting thing through the amazing volatility that we had is that no major regulated futures firm went under- much less any exchange.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Pity that the morons on the Democratic side can't understand that. A mandate that every body must buy insurance, government subsidies for everybody to buy insurance without a robust and well crafted Public option plan to avoid adverse selection is nothing more than giving the insurance companies more sheep to fleece. That Obama will not stand up for the public option while pushing this pigs slop is proof positive that he just a corporate stooge in some kind of disguise.
For those of you who did not see them yesterday, here are two fairly extensive write-ups I did on the employment report.
Weak Employment Report
More on Unemployment Duration