Thats the night the lights went out in georgia
Thats the night that they screwed an innocent man
Dont trust your wealth to no back woods southern realtor
Cause the mortgage broker in the towns got your ass in his hand
Extraordinary indeed - thanks for tracking this down and posting it. The speed of the turn 'round is as startling as apparantly unexpected. BtW - as a related indicator Northeast marinas (think 2nd home) all have slips still available when for the past five years or so they've usually booked up with excess by Jan. (including '00 and '01).
Have you any feel for the size of the downturn in real estate related spending, direct and indirect, that's likely ? All MEW related monies go away of course but what about construction and related ?
The guy was "working" 3 months to sell 2 houses. What kind of job it is? Picking his nose all the day long? Most people would do anything but just don't go and work on real job. No wonder China is passing us in the left lane.
Thanks for finding and posting!! Finally, someone from the real estate biz in Atlanta publicly acknowledging that the market here isn't "different" from everywhere else. People keep telling me they think Atlanta's different, but I've noticed prices dropping, more homes on the market, and foreclosures are high nationally since the rate of creative loans taken out the past few years is about 40%. It is interesting that Sonny's market is in the Alpharetta/Roswell area and is still doing poorly since that's where the majority of high-paying tech jobs are. That says a lot.
We almost bought a house last year but backed out. We lost half our earnest money even though I thought there was a bit of collusion ("fraud") going on between our realtor, mtg broker, and appraiser. Now I feel justified in our actions. At this point, we're willing to rent and wait. We're saving more money anyway as we have fixed expenses by not owning.
Some GDP data just came out and you can check Dean Baker's GDP Bytes for a feel on construction related investment:
Residential investment fell at a 6.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, subtracting 0.4 percentage points from GDP growth. This decline is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, as housing construction remains more than 25 percent above its trend levels
I am very bearish on the housing market. However, I wonder what your opinion is on Houston? Could the oil industry buoy real estate there despite the tide lowering across the remainder of the US? BTW, I do not live, own, or do business in Houston.
It's interesting that Atlanta didn't have a "speculative run-up in housing prices," but is still being socked by the national real estate slow-down. That doesn't seem quite fair. It's amazing how quickly the housing market has hit the wall; the dates on Sonnypage's posts are startling.
Paul, I really don't know anything about the Houston market. Sorry I can't help.
Holly W., Surprisingly Atlanta had some of the highest rates of nontraditional mortgages. Even though prices didn't go sky high, it appears there was plenty of excessive leverage.
Just yesterday, we spoke to a realtor here in our Philly burbs, a guy I thought was a pretty straight-shooter, and he assured me the market HERE wouldn't ever go down because:
1) The economy is 'great' here
2) we didn't have a big run-up in prices like CA and FL (oh really?)
and finally (I swear to god)
3) "it's different here"
Oh, but when pressed he also mentioned that yes, ummm, ahhh, inventory is 50% higher than last year.
I saw Mish's missive this morning and almost sent it to the him, but then figured oh, why bother? He'll find out soon enough.
I just got done reading that piece - extraordinary.
Thats the night the lights went out in georgia
Thats the night that they screwed an innocent man
Dont trust your wealth to no back woods southern realtor
Cause the mortgage broker in the towns got your ass in his hand
Extraordinary indeed - thanks for tracking this down and posting it. The speed of the turn 'round is as startling as apparantly unexpected. BtW - as a related indicator Northeast marinas (think 2nd home) all have slips still available when for the past five years or so they've usually booked up with excess by Jan. (including '00 and '01).
Have you any feel for the size of the downturn in real estate related spending, direct and indirect, that's likely ? All MEW related monies go away of course but what about construction and related ?
The guy was "working" 3 months to sell 2 houses. What kind of job it is? Picking his nose all the day long? Most people would do anything but just don't go and work on real job. No wonder China is passing us in the left lane.
Thanks for finding and posting!! Finally, someone from the real estate biz in Atlanta publicly acknowledging that the market here isn't "different" from everywhere else. People keep telling me they think Atlanta's different, but I've noticed prices dropping, more homes on the market, and foreclosures are high nationally since the rate of creative loans taken out the past few years is about 40%. It is interesting that Sonny's market is in the Alpharetta/Roswell area and is still doing poorly since that's where the majority of high-paying tech jobs are. That says a lot.
We almost bought a house last year but backed out. We lost half our earnest money even though I thought there was a bit of collusion ("fraud") going on between our realtor, mtg broker, and appraiser. Now I feel justified in our actions. At this point, we're willing to rent and wait. We're saving more money anyway as we have fixed expenses by not owning.
DaveL,
Some GDP data just came out and you can check Dean Baker's GDP Bytes for a feel on construction related investment:
Residential investment fell at a 6.3 percent annual rate in the second quarter, subtracting 0.4 percentage points from GDP growth. This decline is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, as housing construction remains more than 25 percent above its trend levels
CR-
I am very bearish on the housing market. However, I wonder what your opinion is on Houston? Could the oil industry buoy real estate there despite the tide lowering across the remainder of the US? BTW, I do not live, own, or do business in Houston.
It's interesting that Atlanta didn't have a "speculative run-up in housing prices," but is still being socked by the national real estate slow-down. That doesn't seem quite fair. It's amazing how quickly the housing market has hit the wall; the dates on Sonnypage's posts are startling.
Paul, I really don't know anything about the Houston market. Sorry I can't help.
Holly W., Surprisingly Atlanta had some of the highest rates of nontraditional mortgages. Even though prices didn't go sky high, it appears there was plenty of excessive leverage.
Best Wishes.
Just yesterday, we spoke to a realtor here in our Philly burbs, a guy I thought was a pretty straight-shooter, and he assured me the market HERE wouldn't ever go down because:
1) The economy is 'great' here
2) we didn't have a big run-up in prices like CA and FL (oh really?)
and finally (I swear to god)
3) "it's different here"
Oh, but when pressed he also mentioned that yes, ummm, ahhh, inventory is 50% higher than last year.
I saw Mish's missive this morning and almost sent it to the him, but then figured oh, why bother? He'll find out soon enough.