nearly 20,000 returns for people who may not have actually purchased homes; thousands for people who already owned homes; 3,200 taxpayers who could not prove they were in the country legally; and an unspecified number of IRS employees wrongly applying for the credit.
They just opened an upscale bistro in a low rent strip mall by my house. There it is, nestled between a Chinese take-out place and a drycleaners. The triumph of optimism over common sense.
We call it the dopamine pathways, pronounced "dope-em-in"
The fed is about 75% of the way through their announced $1.45 trillion mortgage purchase sham. At a 4.5% interest rate, the Fed will be collecting ~ $65 billion in yearly interest payments that used to flow to banks and investors. That's a LOT of $$$$$.
Here's the worst of it. After the losses are out of the system, the Fed will hand that gravy train back over to Wall St.
I'm of the opinion, we don't need Wall St. ever again in the mortgage market. Let the GSE's and the fed handle it, but with iron clad lending rules - 20% down and 36% DTI max.
If we are taking the risk of the losses, let's keep the future gains too. Force banks and Wall St. to find productive endeavors to deploy capital. Inflating property is negative value added.
As I said in the other thread, isn't supposed to have at least some passing correlation with the other commodities? Because it seems off on its lonesome the past few days. Like it's one a nice walk down the beach with while all the other commodities have hauled off into the woods and brutally beaten by .
Writing off debt makes sense when the credit card is issued to a 3 year old Texan girl who will unlikely pay off the $37,000 debt she incurred at various drinking and stripping establishments in the Greater Metroplex Area.
** takes multiple kicks to rib and crotch from steel toed Wall Street hench-men **
** raises eyes to heaven and promises to never again gamble on sds, qid, srs or skf **
H.3 Aggregate Reserves of Depository Institutions and the Monetary Base
Uh, is it just me or do I see a tiny glimpse of white between the grey bar and the top of that blue line? Like maybe the fed is predicting an end to the recession?
Or did they already do that while I was away on business?
Where is the money coming from? This from Bank of America's Q3 earnings: "Credit-loss provisions swelled 81%, while the net charge-off rate was up at 4.13% from 1.84% a year earlier and 3.64% in the second quarter."
I imagine the decline in outstanding consumer credit is defaults getting wiped off creditors books. The massive increases in BKs and FCs, auto reposessions... Has to be it. Sure isn't getting paid off with record UE. This has nothing to do with paying down debt.
Which ones are the bandwagon commodities these days?
I can take a guess, glancing at the ads on this page:
Goldline International, Inc.
Invest in gold bullion with Blanchard & Company, the gold standard for the intelligent investor
Sprott Money--gold and silver maple ready to ship
Something smells and this is likely being played out across the nation but....we must preserve those smart masters of the universe, their smart people, bonuses or ELSE! This is starting to sound a bit like that Alabama bond problem.
Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Wall Street firms that sold mortgage- backed securities to a $30 billion pool run by the state of Florida for local governments are under investigation for fraud by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Credit Suisse Group AG may have misled officials overseeing Florida’s Local Government Investment Pool in 2007 when they sold the securities without disclosing “the risk and liquidity of investments,” the SEC said in an Oct. 17, 2008, letter to the State Board of Administration that runs the pool.
The SEC sought testimony and documents as part of its so- called formal inquiry, according to a letter and subpoena sent to the State Board. Assets in the pool, now known as Florida Prime, plunged to less than $6 billion in the weeks after it disclosed in November 2007 that it held $2.2 billion of below- investment-grade securities. The mortgage-backed bonds were the same kind that led financial institutions worldwide to take $1.7 trillion in losses and writedowns.
“Everybody’s glad it’s being looked into,” said Jeannie Garner, director of financial services for the 400-member Florida League of Cities in Tallahassee, Florida. “There’s been no resolution.”
"Q: How do you make a small fortune in SRS?
A: Start with a large fortune."
I thought it was take the proceeds from your successful trades in QID and SDS (that obviously proved you knew what you were doing) and plough them into SRS and SKF.
And then after you successfully traded SRS and SKF a few times continue your trades in SRS/SKF.
Of course this is all hypothetical, I never did anything like that in reality.
I'm not so sure about that. The people I know that have reached the point of prioritizing bills put the credit card bills right at the top, not only ahead of the mortgage (who cares) but even ahead of utilities. You can buy a little time with the utilities before they cut you off, but the CC companies hit you with the punitive rate immediately and if you're trying to use the cards to cash flow you just can't afford what that does to your monthly payment.
An amazing amount being held in reserve (rather than loaned out or invested) which I suspect is to provide some shelter for coming losses in RRE and CRE. But then again, I could be all wet. The contraction in credit is the story here I do believe.
Personally, I don't see people spending less but they SAY they are.
I went and got my glasses adjusted at the eye-glass place in the downtown of the small college town I live in near Sac. The name had changed, so I thought they changed owners. I asked the sales-person, and she said that the owner changed the name because they were trying to market to a different clientele (students, previous high-end yuppies). She said that the entire downtown was "dead" (imo, meaning retail dead, as restaurants still seem ok, at least on weekends). So, people might be spending less too and paying off the balances. Who knows.
An amazing amount being held in reserve (rather than loaned out or invested) which I suspect is to provide some shelter for coming losses in RRE and CRE. But then again, I could be all wet. The contraction in credit is the story here I do believe.
I doubt it will provide much shelter. If it's not being loaned, it's not helping companies and consumers maintain their economic activity, therefore causing more defaults, therefore enhancing the economic contraction, therefore demanding more reserves.
If only there was a word to describe this process.
"Consumer Credit Declines" means the Ponzi scheme is unwinding...
So TPTB must add to the base of the credit pyramid scheme, using our future earnings taken without our consent. And they also reassure us with happy talk so that we believe the base of the credit pyramid is solid and will only grow...
ShortCourage (profile) wrote on Fri, 11/6/2009 - 3:27 pm
"Consumer Credit Declines" means the Ponzi scheme is unwinding...
So TPTB must add to the base of the credit pyramid scheme, using our future earnings taken without our consent. And they also reassure us with happy talk so that we believe the base of the credit pyramid is solid and will only grow...
Yes, but the pyramid of credit is actually upside down... layers of increasing degrees of bullshit/hot-air balanced precociously on precious little of anything underneath... behold the black magick of leveraged debt instruments!!
I'm actually surprised that it's down this much, since it DOESN'T include mortgage debt. This means that the HELOCer and serial REFIers have finally had to cut back. And since they weren't going to cut back until nobody would lend them, they've gotten to their limit.
Several articles I have read have pointed out that loans come first and reserves second not the other way around.
If so we could be in a world of hurt going forward. Reserves and paying interest on reserves is simply to fill a huge black hole in bank balance sheets.
Everything that I am reading about CRE and CC losses point to the above being true.
several people i know used the tax credit to pay off their credit cards, so in essence, public debt -> consumer revolving instead of the mortgage debt.
Interesting that Australia put their stimulus dollars in the hands of consumers, invested in infrastructure, and raised their prime rate twice in the past 60 days with another increase likely Dec. 1. Their economy is on fire, with low unemployment & inflation and appears now completely decoupled from the US
With the gold price hitting $1,100 today, CGR had a decent earnings release this morning even though it did post a small net loss: Claudes Gold Production Rises and Costs Decline In my opinion now may be a decent time to add to a long position in this name. The junior gold mining company reported an 83% increase in gold production for the quarter, a 16% reduction in cash costs, and reiterated its 2009 gold production forecast. It also provided a positive update on its Madsen project, where it derives quite a bit of leverage to the gold price due to this exploration project.
The House Financial Services Committee this week approved an amendment to the Investor Protection Act of 2009 to allow most companies to never comply with the law [Sarbanes-Oxley], and mandating a study to see whether it would be a good idea to exempt additional ones as well.
Dude, if I had that much money, I wouldn't be living with my parents.
if I remember right it was a minimum of $100K or so to buy some points.
That was almost ten years ago, though.
Probably around $1M now, in US dollars.
Well the way I understand things as the ARE...Sarbanes-Oxley is just part of the larger problem of the Basal II accord which relaxed capital requirements among other things. Internationally, reform is needed, not just in the USA. Without it, then the imbalances which led up to this massive mess will only be exacerbated. This must also be extended to, JMHO, international trade agreements via the WTO, another massive thorn in the side of any recovery here or elsewhere.
"Australian and NZ both have point-based systems that are weighted against age, though"
Actually Iceland is not doing not-so-bad. That is much better than soon-to-be-really-bad. Fresh sea air will make you stronger and their little population needs more diversity anyway
Public service announcement for anyone thinking of going long. Now would be a good time. After staring at a low volume drift higher with ever weakening RSI for 3 days now, I've given up fighting the urge to buy index puts. I figure it's sexier than just lighting my money on fire but just as efficient.
barfly - Well they require J6P, as the perfect consumer. He is the base and the only thing real in the whole inverted pyramid. That's why it is so vital to keep him buying, consuming, and in a mortgage and car loan. The entire system's stability requires J6P to behave as a predictable consumer even though it despises him and his sad, average existence. Stop buying, minimize consumption, and that system collapses of itself.
I imagine the decline in outstanding consumer credit is defaults getting wiped off creditors books. The massive increases in BKs and FCs, auto reposessions... Has to be it. Sure isn't getting paid off with record UE. This has nothing to do with paying down debt.
It would be better news if it in fact was being paid down. If it is write offs as you suggest then unless the banks suffer amnesia it probably means a permanently lower level of debt rather than a pause that allows re-borrowing. However, personal consumption in September did decrease by 47Billion so a reduction of 14 billion from current period cash flow is certainly possible.
Actually, if companies had bothered to have their books in order and done a decent job of setting up their ERP systems; Sarbox wouldn't have been that hard to comply with. All of the companies that made multiple acquisitions and never bothered to integrate their systems or botched their ERP setups; would have had a hard time.
Stop buying, minimize consumption, and that system collapses of itself.
The system has to maintain equilibrium.
Has to.
That's where the Libertarians fall apart.
All they understand is one side - "make stuff".
Can't everybody making stuff all the time.
Somebody has to buy and use it.
RiF - sure, that's why they shipped all our jobs overseas, and downsized every other way they could, putting us in the most severe wage competition we've seen in our lifetime. Yeah, they need us, alright.
And still the ol timers rock in their chairs on the stoop muttering about expatriation...
Looks like it's too late, man.
I read through the Australian immigration policy docs and it clearly specifies "18 to 45" for "occupational immigration".
The unexpected side effect of global national retirement policies.
Actually, if companies had bothered to have their books in order and done a decent job of setting up their ERP systems; Sarbox wouldn't have been that hard to comply with.
I watched a small public company blow millions on an Oracle ERP system, trying to comply with Sarbox. The resulting system barely worked after over a year of effort, and made it very difficult to do business.
"RiF - sure, that's why they shipped all our jobs overseas, and downsized every other way the could, putting us in the most severe wage competition we've seen in our lifetime. Yeah, they need us, alright."
That's the problem when every company focuses on just their own economic welfare.
How does a company increase profitability? Outsource jobs, automate and cut to the bone.
What happens to a 70 percent consumption based economy that is approximately 20% of the world GDP when every company does the above?
'I'm sorry' Citigroup was ever born, co-founder says | Money & Company | Los Angeles Times
Amazing. ... said Reed. "When you’re running a company, you do what you think is right for the stockholders. Right now I’m looking at this as a citizen."
Interesting line from the article: "We learn from our mistakes," said Reed. "When you’re running a company, you do what you think is right for the stockholders. Right now I’m looking at this as a citizen."
broward - not too late for me, I'm outta Dodge already.
Actually, I wonder if there's money to be made pushing for pension portability... Eg. take what's left of yr 401k or cash up before the dollar tanks, and take it somewhere with bigger purchasing power.
barfly (profile) wrote on Fri, 11/6/2009 - 4:00 pm
RiF - sure, that's why they shipped all our jobs overseas, and downsized every other way the could, putting us in the most severe wage competition we've seen in our lifetime. Yeah, they need us, alright.
It's love/hate and an abusive, complicated relationship. But we are the predictable variable, the dupe that enables their entire financial pyramid, and that in turn is what they depend on to live in luxury above the rest of us. Our only "payoff" is a moderately more sophisticated lifestyle enabled by easy access to personal credit that gets used for more consumption.
That's unfortunate...I'm sure there are many similar occurrences. It's an issue with the ERP/accountant sales pitches. The problem is that accounting firms have an interest in convincing management to go for the most complex "solution", which generates massive billing hours for the accountants and the Oracle people.
How does a company increase profitability? Outsource jobs, automate and cut to the bone.
What happens to a 70 percent consumption based economy that is approximately 20% of the world GDP when every company does the above?
You're getting the answer now.
Yes. "They" seem to never be able to stop at the point where they would have gotten away with it. That's the tragic part. It almost worked.
Exactly. They seldom are. Another Libertarian fantasy. At least the Socialists and Fascists aren't confuses who's supposed to be on top of the pyramid, but only the Fascist can implement their fantasy..
So the demi-Gods are prepared to offer up Citi as a sacrificial lamb to appease the dark chaos swirling outside the temple grounds, huh?
Short that b***h into the ground. Sounds like we just lost one more chair ... better hope the music keeps playing!
Even in tough times, it's good to be a lawmaker: According to a report released this week by the Center for Responsive Politics, there are 237 millionaires serving in Congress, according to 2008 figures.
That's a slight decline from the previous year, when there were 239 millionaires in the House and Senate. But it still reflects the fact that the average lawmaker is far wealthier than his or her typical constituent. While about one percent of Americans are millionaires, 44 percent of those serving in Congress can claim as much.
We've proven beyond any shadow of a doubt we are the best shoppers on the planet for snakeoil, bad mortgages, cheap crap, frankenfood and overpriced goods for 'acceptance' of our peers whoever they are. Shop til you drop and CHARGE (it)!! Haven't heard that rally cry for awhile now.
Keeping up with the Jone's now means converting your ARM into a squid like projection. Botox parties are now include an infusion directly into BRAINS.
All the money printing comes to naught because the credit channels are broken - or as Krugman said, "any changes in the money supply are offset one for one by changes in velocity." So massive pumping has very little effect on prices or GDP.
Of course, some of the cash that has been pumped into the economy will eventually end up in the hands of people who want to buy something besides financial assets. Then we get to find out whether Bernanke can use the broken credit channels to siphon money out of the economy any more effectively than he can pump it in. Or to mix metaphors, if the string is broken it might not matter whether he is pushing or pulling.
Actually, I wonder if there's money to be made pushing for pension portability... Eg. take what's left of yr 401k or cash up before the dollar tanks, and take it somewhere with bigger purchasing power.
Problem is most Americans don't have any notion of the dollars value relative to other currencies. They are about to be educated in a most unpleasant fashion.
"They" need us to scrap amongst ourselves for an ever dwindling supply of jobs, so they can keep an ever bigger cut of the pie. That's all. Otherwise, we're nothing to them.
Obviously, the real issue isn't whether a Citi co-founder now thinks we would be better off without it ...
the question is, who is this message aimed at, and why are they telling them now?
Obviously, the real issue isn't whether a Citi co-founder now thinks we would be better off without it ...
the question is, who is this message aimed at, and why are they telling them now?
A libertarian patriot's lament. He noticed his flag-pin and had some guilt, probably after a nice bottle of wine.
Nanoo-Nanoo (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 11/6/2009 - 4:13 pm
We've proven beyond any shadow of a doubt we are the best shoppers on the planet for snakeoil, bad mortgages, cheap crap, frankenfood and overpriced goods for 'acceptance' of our peers whoever they are. Shop til you drop and CHARGE (it)!! Haven't heard that rally cry for awhile now.
Keeping up with the Jone's now means converting your ARM into a squid like projection. Botox parties are now include an infusion directly into BRAINS.
The only part of nature that's really left to exploit is human psychology. It should be pretty clear by now that it is already a pretty sophisticated business. Don't forget your "peers" now include sports stars and celebrities, plus any Jane or Joe UnAverage that HGTV can serve up.
Obviously, the real issue isn't whether a Citi co-founder now thinks we would be better off without it ...
the question is, who is this message aimed at, and why are they telling them now?
It seems to me that seeking personal redemption can be a powerful motive, having watched Arthur Levitt apologize for really no personal benefit other than his conscience on the Frontline episode about Brooksley Born.
Citi's stock value kind of speaks for itself ... what I don't know much about is the amount and quality of Citi's debt and derivative exposure and off-balance-sheet activities.
Any of those big shredder trucks pulling up outside headquarters late at night in the last couple of weeks?
if the string is broken it might not matter whether he is pushing or pulling.
Quoted of course from what bugeyes wrote.
I would enjoy hearing from albrt as to what Kman meant, and how he sees this taking on a life of its own, outside the arena where Bombs Away Ben, et alia can control it.
As I said in the other thread, isn't In glod we trust supposed to have at least some passing correlation with the other commodities? Because it seems off on its lonesome the past few days.
Gold has one unique characteristic that other commodities don't, which is as a perceived safe haven and constant medium of exchange in times of general turmoil. So, when gold diverges significantly from other commodities, it means there's turmoil...somewhere.
Krugman said, "any changes in the money supply are offset one for one by changes in velocity."
As much as one for one? If he can prove that he deserves his Memorial Prize. If he can't he's talking out his arse and needs to just plain old admit he threw good money after bad.
I must say in my travels throughout Asia in the last 5 years I've been very impressed with their ability to pickup our mindless consumption patterns, use of credit cards, middle class living beyond their means etc..
Given enough time and growth of salaries there's a huge mindless consumption class waiting to be pillaged by Wall Street.
But it's going to take years until they make up for world-wide consumption that the US currently comprises.
I won't buy their crocodile tears until they start divesting themselves from their ill-gotten gains in a big way. I'm not holding my breath, though. We're just going to have to take it from them. Period.
RIF: Psychology (another very imperfect science) is being exploited directly and indirectly. Had your SSRI today, are your kids ADD needing meds or are they really just bright and bored stiff? Marketeers will use all sorts of psychological devices to entice us to buy, like odors, sounds, lighting, colors and product placement on shelves. That in and of itself is BIG business. Those devices used for that 'impulse' buy is utilized everywhere including the grocery store where the sugary sweet cereals are placed where kiddies can grab them/see them.
Somalia is great if you happen to be a warlord or pirate. Less good if you're anyone else. How is that so different than the U.S. where a tiny elite holds all the wealth and power? In fact their system is better in that one becomes a warlord based largely on merit.
I am not sure what he meant, ultimately, but I think he is suggesting that demand is more of a problem than money supply in a liquidity trap. As far as I can tell he does not believe that the liquidity genie will be hard to get back into the bottle, ala the I-Tulip Ka-Poom model.
I think he just means the right side of the equation does not respond much to changes on the left side. It isn't literally one for one, since one factor is measured in trillions and the other is usually in single digits. But for all I know when the Fed is pumping money into the banks and then paying the banks to park the money in treasuries it could be greater than "one to one," meaning less money moving through the real economy than if nothing was done at all.
the mea culpa is his recognition of his part in the "great damage". Maybe he should return his multi-millions, too.
Details via Bloomberg:
Reed’s Compensation
From 1997 to 1999, Reed received salary and bonuses totaling $23.4 million, according to Citigroup filings. In 2000, he received a retirement bonus of $5 million, filings show. Citigroup provides him with an assistant and a New York office, for which he pays taxes, he said.
It won't end well, as we all agree. I'm just trying to get a gauge or a read of how you, or any other thoughtful observer, sees it playing out. Not in extremis, rather, wish to hear something more thoughtful.
I see gold ads all over the Internet, not just econ-related sites. I hear gold ads on conservative and air america radio stations. I see gold ads on most TV stations.
I love , but there may be a bit too much euphoria building.
edit: it is still not a bad buy at this level if your time frame is 5-10 years, but I think we see a sharp correction within 6 months.
Citi's stock price is singularly a consequence of a Dick Bove buy call. Its fascinating how someone so wrong so often is listened. to. He has an uncanny ability to be consistently wrong.
Boy has the Fed re-ignited risk appetite, or what?
These are the ttm PE ratios of my shorts:
AAPL = 31
AMZN = 74
CRM = 121
GOOG = 36
HPQ = 17
IBM = 13 (What's wrong with them?!)
PCLN = 37
JWN = 23
URBN = 31
WFMI = 43
On average, a PE ratio of nearly 45 for these stocks. Wow, just wow. And keep in mind that these are stocks that, in general, did not suffer dramatic earnings drops. Not yet anyways.
OT: LL-esque Moment
.
We have a client in the middle of a divorce. Mother of multiple children. Been married for the past 17 years. Finds out via discovery that her husband has been paying child support--via wage garnishment--to 2 different women for 2 different children. Apparently it can affect some of her child support/alimony 'cause other women beat her to the trough.
.
It isn't RE/Foreclosure , but it made my day.
Easy to understand economics: You can't get a modification if you don't have a job.
Advanced economics: '...central banks don't supply the money supply, they only control the monetary base...
The bottom line is that when you're in a liquidity trap, focusing on nominal magnitudes doesn't clarify matters; It obscures them'.
- Paul Krugman, 'The Conscience of a Liberal', Nov. 6, 2009
Came by just to drop this jem on you doom jockeys:
"I can remember one occasion, taking a shower with my wife while high, in which I had an idea on the origins and invalidities of racism in terms of gaussian distribution curves. It was a point obvious in a way, but rarely talked about. I drew the curves in soap on the shower wall, and went to write the idea down. One idea led to another, and at the end of about an hour of extremely hard work I found I had written eleven short essays on a wide range of social, political, philosophical, and human biological topics." - Carl Sagan.
As to the 4 year old--4 year olds, being human beings, can take title to property.
The problem is, getting it out again. And did the 4 year old sign the mortgage?
Title holders have to sign mtges!! 4 year olds are not 18 year olds!!
So if the lender wants to foreclose, the 4 year old has a defense!! Plus, the
lender might, depending on the state, have to set up a guardianship with a guardian
to protect his or her interests, and have somebody to serve.
One thing that amuses me is when somebody generalizes "Asians," which currently compromise 60% of the population of the world. How do people manage to have a general understanding of 4 billion people, perhaps on the basis of having an Asian spouse? "My travels throughout Asia" and "their ability" indeed. Ah well, I'm getting a bit too snarky. Nap time.
Writing off debt makes sense when the credit card is issued to a 3 year old Texan girl who will unlikely pay off the $37,000 debt she incurred at various drinking and stripping establishments
Can someone please explain (again) why its important to our country that GS makes $100 million a day - and that we needed to give them $15 billion or so so they may continue to do that.
Can someone please explain (again) why its important to our country that GS makes $100 million a day - and that we needed to give them $15 billion or so so they may continue to do that.
They bought the government, fair and square.
If you had paid for some politician, wouldn't you want him to stay bought?
I guess our Fed/Treasury has created a system where they are forced to make all their deals with acknowledged pathological liars and crooks. Difficult to imagine how that could possibly work out in the govt's favor.
By Asian countries I mean having visited China,Singapore,Hong Kong,, Thailand , Vietnam.
Plus what my Indian co-workers/friends tell me about the spending patterns back in India.
Plus hearing from my brother living in Thailand and having visited on multiple occasions almost every country surrounding Thailand (Cambodia, Malaysia and a few others).
That's quite a wide swathe of Asia where I've seen first-hand or heard second hand about general consumption trends.
Increase in consumption, increase in use of credit cards, drastic difference in spending patterns between the younger and the older generation.
Just passing on what I heard and/or observe first hand.
The consumer doesn't need private credit when the gov't is spending on credit for us. Just need more of C4C and housing credit programs and such. There. Problem solved.
I'm not saying that gold is in a bubble, but the whole rich, smart people as a reason for why it's not in a bubble doesn't cut the mustard for me.
Let me try a different way of saying it. As confidence in the future of paper money declines, gold goes up. Gold is only in a bubble if there's relatively high gold price and also relatively high confidence in the future of paper money.
Let's say you are a hedge fund manager who made $10 million last year. And you look at the front page of today's NY Times and see...uh, oh, there could soon be 1,000 people like me indicted for insider trading. And you're watching the dollar tank and thinking...how is this $10 million gonna help me buy real financial security, in a land with no extradition treaty far, far away?
The JUNIOR Senator means the odds of it getting traction is SLIM to NONE. He is btw a card carrying socialist, cue Seinfeld: "not that there is anything wrong with that".
"After growing somewhat frustrated with the feasibility of doing large-scale reverse repurchase agreements with non-traditional counterparties, the Federal Reserve has begun to focus more on doing these reserve-draining operations with the primary dealer community when the time comes, Market News International understands.
The Fed has been informed by dealers that they would be willing to enter into very sizable amounts of reverse repos with the Fed, if asked to do so, provided they could get some relief from Tier I capital constraints, MNI also understands."
Can someone please explain (again) why its important to our country that GS makes $100 million a day - and that we needed to give them $15 billion or so so they may continue to do that.
Because of free enterprise, and democracy. It people like you - people trying to stir-up class-warfare - that don't realize it takes the hard-working honest bidness leaders of Merica (PEOPLE THAT WORK FOR A LIVING, AND PAY TAXES, UNLIKE THOSE LAZY WELFARE QUEEN) leaders that take risks and get rewarded for those risk, proving every day that capitalism and Merica are the best in the entire whole-wide-world, a world that envy us because risk taking bidness leaders are taking risks and getting honest and just reward - because they take risks - and people like YOU communists want to take their hard-earned profits AND GIVE THEM TO THOSE WELFARE QUEENS AND THOSE UNEMPLOYED LOSER THAT EXPECT TO RECEIVE UNEMPLYMENT FOREVER, GET A JOB YOU HIPPIES.
ps. Bernie, if your staff is reading this, please come to CA and take Fienstien's seat. Extra points if "someone's" rogue staffer curbs her on the way out.
As confidence in the future of paper money declines, gold goes up.
I think confidence in paper money will continue to decline, but I also think a whole lot of promised paper money (credit) is going to vanish, leaving less paper money in proportion to gold (not counting paper gold).
Fair enough. I definitely value your contributions here, but sometimes the generalizations (perhaps not from you, but from others) seem a bit much. Thx for the background.
Being as I'm somewhat naive - does the $100 million GS "earns" everyday come out of the pockets of our citizenry or from somewhere else? Is it a zero sum game whereby GS basically sucks it out of us.
Never mind how many banks are going to fail today. How many households are going to fail today? That's the imporant number. Who cares about the dumb banks.
How are you factoring in the relationship of paper gold to physical? Because I'd speculate that as a whole lot of paper money disappears, a huge amount of paper gold will follow.
The relationship between paper money and REAL gold however, is what really matters. And that is (either temporarily, or longer term depending on your outlook) linked to paper gold for the moment and manipulated by the Fed and other primary dealers.
The statistic I've seen cited is that the ratio of paper gold to physical is approximately 100x.
I sold "high" in 2005 thinking I would buy "low". Two years to early it seems and VT is anything but cheap. Fortunately the last year has proven me correct. That and the urgency of NYC no longer had any appeal. Vt is pretty sane and in balance in a lot of ways. Vt should move to Europe.
Is it a zero sum game whereby GS basically sucks it out of us
It is true that Goldman Sachs produces no net value for the economy, and instead simply skims all the economic value out of everyone else's economic activity. In that sense it is a zero sum game.
But the reason apparently smart people keep buying into it is because they are like Crazy Eddie - they believe they can lose money on every transaction, but make it up on velocity. If only the Goldman Sachs employees get several shoeshines a day and tip well, the employment problems will be solved.
The taxpayer has their back......Frig up, The US Taxpayer has their back. Their traders probably are in Vegas, risk means nothing, The US Taxpayers have their back.
Let's say you are a hedge fund manager who made $10 million last year. And you look at the front page of today's NY Times and see...uh, oh, there could soon be 1,000 people like me indicted for insider trading. And you're watching the dollar tank and thinking...how is this $10 million gonna help me buy real financial security, in a land with no extradition treaty far, far away?
Gold ain't gonna help you with that. $10mm in gold is 23 bullion bars, not really gonna fit in your suitcase. Do you'll have to ship them along with your other posessions in an intermodal container. cue all the hassles.
Say you just say screw it, I'll just wire the money bit by bit. Congratulations, you're now guity of bundling!!
$10mm in large carat precious stones is fungible, readily portionable & concealable. Of course you actually have to know your stones and where to buy them cheaply, but such is life.
Of course, you could buy real assets using shell corporations routed through Nevada and Panama.......
"How do people manage to have a general understanding of 4 billion people, perhaps on the basis of having an Asian spouse? "My travels throughout Asia" and "their ability" indeed. Ah well, I'm getting a bit too snarky. Nap time."
Not sure about Asia generally, but there's definitely a Chinese culture and most Chinese people's attitudes (self-consciously) reflect it. You really see this once you learn the language well enough that they'd rather speak Chinese with you, and you start getting their "Chinese personality."
It's different from the U.S., where everyone tries to be a beautiful, unique snowflake.
Also, most of the U.S. China experts seem to have the baseline assumptions that inside every Chinese person is an American, trying to get out, and China is progressing towards multicultural liberal democracy. This is crap, IMO, as a meaningful level of interaction with actual Chinese people makes clear, let alone spending any time over there.
So, yeah, having a Chinese spouse, traveling there, etc gives you meaningful insight into the culture.
Clearly, people are spending with their cash from savings. Right?
Let them eat cake.
4-Year-Old Got First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit, Panel Told -- Politics Daily
nearly 20,000 returns for people who may not have actually purchased homes; thousands for people who already owned homes; 3,200 taxpayers who could not prove they were in the country legally; and an unspecified number of IRS employees wrongly applying for the credit.
don't bet against the US consumer.... Or is it BET AGAINST THE US CONSUMER
And just in time for the Holiday Shopping Season!
I smell 'iiiiiinnnnnnflation'.
Wait, what?
Nuke (profile) wrote on Fri, 11/6/2009 - 3:02 pm
JBR:
They just opened an upscale bistro in a low rent strip mall by my house. There it is, nestled between a Chinese take-out place and a drycleaners. The triumph of optimism over common sense.
We call it the dopamine pathways, pronounced "dope-em-in"
SO what are the percentages?
30% paid/ 70% Write Off
40% paid/ 60 Write off
The fed is about 75% of the way through their announced $1.45 trillion mortgage purchase sham. At a 4.5% interest rate, the Fed will be collecting ~ $65 billion in yearly interest payments that used to flow to banks and investors. That's a LOT of $$$$$.
Here's the worst of it. After the losses are out of the system, the Fed will hand that gravy train back over to Wall St.
I'm of the opinion, we don't need Wall St. ever again in the mortgage market. Let the GSE's and the fed handle it, but with iron clad lending rules - 20% down and 36% DTI max.
If we are taking the risk of the losses, let's keep the future gains too. Force banks and Wall St. to find productive endeavors to deploy capital. Inflating property is negative value added.
market defying gravity...sell off imminent....
sell off imminent....
Mr. Market is waitng for me to reload my puts.
Then it's off to 12,000..................
14.8 billion consumer credit contraction wiped out in one day by fannie 15 billion treasury grab...
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
As I said in the other thread, isn't
supposed to have at least some passing correlation with the other commodities? Because it seems off on its lonesome the past few days. Like it's one a nice walk down the beach with 
while all the other commodities have hauled off into the woods and brutally beaten by 
.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Hucoodanode?
Check this out!!
H.3 Aggregate Reserves of Depository Institutions and the Monetary Base
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EXCRESNS?cid=123
Writing off debt makes sense when the credit card is issued to a 3 year old Texan girl who will unlikely pay off the $37,000 debt she incurred at various drinking and stripping establishments in the Greater Metroplex Area.
"isn't
supposed to have at least some passing correlation with the other commodities?"
Not really. The monetary aspect makes it very different. You're just thinking about the results of everyone blindly jumping into commodities recently.
** takes multiple kicks to rib and crotch from steel toed Wall Street hench-men **
** raises eyes to heaven and promises to never again gamble on sds, qid, srs or skf **
This should help the restaurants I spoke of in the
thread.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Uh, is it just me or do I see a tiny glimpse of white between the grey bar and the top of that blue line? Like maybe the fed is predicting an end to the recession?
Or did they already do that while I was away on business?
Where is the money coming from? This from Bank of America's Q3 earnings: "Credit-loss provisions swelled 81%, while the net charge-off rate was up at 4.13% from 1.84% a year earlier and 3.64% in the second quarter."
Not all consumer credit improvement is equal.
It isn't gambling. It is investing. Poor investing, but investing nevertheless. And less. And less.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Even looks odd to me. But, probably nothing.
sm_landlord wrote:
Most of the commodities I watch, the softs, have been pretty flat over the past few months. Which ones are the bandwagon commodities these days?
I imagine the decline in outstanding consumer credit is defaults getting wiped off creditors books. The massive increases in BKs and FCs, auto reposessions... Has to be it. Sure isn't getting paid off with record UE. This has nothing to do with paying down debt.
noob goldberg wrote:
Well, up until the last week of October, it was all of the metals. Since then, the monetary metals are moving past the industrial metals.
noob goldberg wrote:
I can take a guess, glancing at the ads on this page:
Goldline International, Inc.
Invest in gold bullion with Blanchard & Company, the gold standard for the intelligent investor
Sprott Money--gold and silver maple ready to ship
** raises eyes to heaven and promises to never again gamble on sds, qid, srs or skf **
Q: How do you make a small fortune in SRS?
A: Start with a large fortune.
(always heard that in reference to either horse racing or yachting)
Something smells and this is likely being played out across the nation but....we must preserve those smart masters of the universe, their smart people, bonuses or ELSE! This is starting to sound a bit like that Alabama bond problem.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aBNETIsfwHm8&pos=3
.......
Credit is old school
(after first maxing it out and then walking away)
Now that you can live in your house for free and get 20% of your income from DC everyone is awash with cash.
Cuing the empty 9 story Seattle office building
Guess Paul Allen has extra money
So, when will the next stimulus come?
Check out World Political Economy for more analysis: wpeconomy.com.
Book on consumers rebuilding balance sheets... See CH 7
I'm going to shave.
When I return, I want to see the $$$ amount that is attributed to write downs.
TIA
Nanoo-Nanoo,
What's your point with regards to reserves?
Hours worked x Employment:Population via EconomPic: Civilian Hours per Week Cliff Dive Continues
astonishing
"Q: How do you make a small fortune in SRS?
A: Start with a large fortune."
I thought it was take the proceeds from your successful trades in QID and SDS (that obviously proved you knew what you were doing) and plough them into SRS and SKF.
And then after you successfully traded SRS and SKF a few times continue your trades in SRS/SKF.
Of course this is all hypothetical, I never did anything like that in reality.
bearly wrote:
I'm not so sure about that. The people I know that have reached the point of prioritizing bills put the credit card bills right at the top, not only ahead of the mortgage (who cares) but even ahead of utilities. You can buy a little time with the utilities before they cut you off, but the CC companies hit you with the punitive rate immediately and if you're trying to use the cards to cash flow you just can't afford what that does to your monthly payment.
bearly lol
An amazing amount being held in reserve (rather than loaned out or invested) which I suspect is to provide some shelter for coming losses in RRE and CRE. But then again, I could be all wet. The contraction in credit is the story here I do believe.
bearly wrote:
Personally, I don't see people spending less but they SAY they are.
I went and got my glasses adjusted at the eye-glass place in the downtown of the small college town I live in near Sac. The name had changed, so I thought they changed owners. I asked the sales-person, and she said that the owner changed the name because they were trying to market to a different clientele (students, previous high-end yuppies). She said that the entire downtown was "dead" (imo, meaning retail dead, as restaurants still seem ok, at least on weekends). So, people might be spending less too and paying off the balances. Who knows.
I looked at that book bearly recommended.
The 2009 version just has a single page in Chapter 7.
"See chapter 11"
Chapter 11 says see addendum section "Government Malfeasance.".
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
I doubt it will provide much shelter. If it's not being loaned, it's not helping companies and consumers maintain their economic activity, therefore causing more defaults, therefore enhancing the economic contraction, therefore demanding more reserves.
If only there was a word to describe this process.
POIC!
We're joined at the hip! ('cept I didn't dabble in QID)
Ritholtz with some unemployment chart porn: Even More Unemployment Charts | The Big Picture
"Consumer Credit Declines" means the Ponzi scheme is unwinding...
So TPTB must add to the base of the credit pyramid scheme, using our future earnings taken without our consent. And they also reassure us with happy talk so that we believe the base of the credit pyramid is solid and will only grow...
That's going to make it difficult for tax receipts at all levels to keep up with govt spending, obviously.
I am getting at least one (and usually two) credit applications in the mail every day.
" POIC!
We're joined at the hip! ('cept I didn't dabble in QID) "
I told you that was all hypothetical. You got no proof that I did those trades.
Elvis wrote:
Not really.
She's got fifty or sixty years to pay it back.
Much better prospect than trying to squeeze it out of Boomers who will die off much sooner.
ShortCourage (profile) wrote on Fri, 11/6/2009 - 3:27 pm
"Consumer Credit Declines" means the Ponzi scheme is unwinding...
So TPTB must add to the base of the credit pyramid scheme, using our future earnings taken without our consent. And they also reassure us with happy talk so that we believe the base of the credit pyramid is solid and will only grow...
Yes, but the pyramid of credit is actually upside down... layers of increasing degrees of bullshit/hot-air balanced precociously on precious little of anything underneath... behold the black magick of leveraged debt instruments!!
What do you get when you have Rising Unemployment and Declining Consumer Credit?
Analysts pumping Amazon.com, and sending it to another all-time high!
75 x ttm earnings? No problem!
must.stay.above.10k
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Fri, 11/6/2009 - 12:22 pm
Nanoo-Nanoo,
What's your point with regards to reserves?
I know what I see; "liquidity trap"
Push on the string Ben, PUSH on the string.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
check out the h3 agregate reserves of dep institutions...
yeah them bums is hoarding cash and not lending for a variety of reasons...
not the least of which is that since
the emergency economic stabilization act of 2008
the fed now pays interest on excess reserves
what? you say ? isnt that contrary to the stated purpose of getting banks lending again
well whos there to lend to and besides
its much more fun to play pocket pool with the circle jerk of money that the banks "pretend" to invest with the fed
and "earn" interest
and isnt it sweet some of that money that "earns" interest
they got buy trading in junk at a fed window
if only ronald reagan were still alive so he could meet in person the real welfare queens
I'm actually surprised that it's down this much, since it DOESN'T include mortgage debt. This means that the HELOCer and serial REFIers have finally had to cut back. And since they weren't going to cut back until nobody would lend them, they've gotten to their limit.
Go, go, go! Rocketing into the close...
Actually, what's in the rocket's tank? Someone add water?
C
Several articles I have read have pointed out that loans come first and reserves second not the other way around.
If so we could be in a world of hurt going forward. Reserves and paying interest on reserves is simply to fill a huge black hole in bank balance sheets.
Everything that I am reading about CRE and CC losses point to the above being true.
C- bull urine.
several people i know used the tax credit to pay off their credit cards, so in essence, public debt -> consumer revolving instead of the mortgage debt.
yep pump is here
The less optimistic view of Treasury’s handling of the crisis « naked capitalism
An interesting comparison of Bush to Obama, at the bottom.
Using the tax credit to pay off your credit cards is stupid. They should have just walked away from that credit card debt. Losers.
Consumer credit may be declining, but the government is more than taking its place.
You WILL borrow.
Interesting that Australia put their stimulus dollars in the hands of consumers, invested in infrastructure, and raised their prime rate twice in the past 60 days with another increase likely Dec. 1. Their economy is on fire, with low unemployment & inflation and appears now completely decoupled from the US
RBA Says Australian GDP to Grow Faster, Rates to Rise (Update4) - Bloomberg.com
With the gold price hitting $1,100 today, CGR had a decent earnings release this morning even though it did post a small net loss: Claudes Gold Production Rises and Costs Decline In my opinion now may be a decent time to add to a long position in this name. The junior gold mining company reported an 83% increase in gold production for the quarter, a 16% reduction in cash costs, and reiterated its 2009 gold production forecast. It also provided a positive update on its Madsen project, where it derives quite a bit of leverage to the gold price due to this exploration project.
goodbye-to-reforms-of-2002: Personal Finance News from Yahoo! Finance
The House Financial Services Committee this week approved an amendment to the Investor Protection Act of 2009 to allow most companies to never comply with the law [Sarbanes-Oxley], and mandating a study to see whether it would be a good idea to exempt additional ones as well.
Consumer credit sounds so 00's...bygone era soon.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
The dollar pump is confusing everything.
needs to get over there.
Yes. Astonishingly good in that all these people now have so much more time to shop. No wonder the Dow is at 10K!
I may revisit the expatriation concept.
Australian and NZ both have point-based systems that are weighted against age, though.
Markar wrote:
The Aussies cheat by by producing stuff that the world wants to buy. No fair!
broward wrote:
Sadly yes, but money counts too. If you have enough, pick NZ.
Barney Frank creating yet another asinine "policy". Time for another strongly worded email to my Congresspeople.
Dude, if I had that much money, I wouldn't be living with my parents.
if I remember right it was a minimum of $100K or so to buy some points.
That was almost ten years ago, though.
Probably around $1M now, in US dollars.
I know what I see; "liquidity trap"
Push on the string Ben, PUSH on the string.
Byz,
Reserves were nothing of note in the 1970s yet we had inflation. Reserves are not what causes inflation.
Well the way I understand things as the ARE...Sarbanes-Oxley is just part of the larger problem of the Basal II accord which relaxed capital requirements among other things. Internationally, reform is needed, not just in the USA. Without it, then the imbalances which led up to this massive mess will only be exacerbated. This must also be extended to, JMHO, international trade agreements via the WTO, another massive thorn in the side of any recovery here or elsewhere.
"Australian and NZ both have point-based systems that are weighted against age, though"
Actually Iceland is not doing not-so-bad. That is much better than soon-to-be-really-bad. Fresh sea air will make you stronger and their little population needs more diversity anyway
The Aussies cheat by by producing stuff that the world wants to buy. No fair!
True, and just about the only thing we produce is debt which no one in the world wants to buy
Well save the Chinese who also bought the largest mining operation in Australia last year, IIRC.
Day after day it is said,
Our future looks pretty dead.
The oligarch's plan
Is to grab all they can,
While joe sixpack gets kicked in the head ~
About two hours left to vote in the BFF Poll this week.
fundamentals of CRE and UE are sound
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
barfly wrote:
HA!!! And keeps asking for more.
I won't pop-up shop at my own risk this holiday season.
Love your stuff barfly, speaking of...the chart of the Dow today looks like how I walk after 4 martini's.
How is gold not a bubble right now?
the chart of the Dow today looks like how I walk after 4 martini's
Ah, the joys of city living..... don't have to drive home after four martinis.
Public service announcement for anyone thinking of going long. Now would be a good time. After staring at a low volume drift higher with ever weakening RSI for 3 days now, I've given up fighting the urge to buy index puts. I figure it's sexier than just lighting my money on fire but just as efficient.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
SarBox turned out to be an expensive subsidy to accountants and IT consultants that accomplished nothing except to waste money.
How is gold not a bubble right now?
"It's different this time".
We've got the lochness formation on the DOW today.
wow.
It appears to be heavily weighted against age now.
Over 45, forget it.
Australia Skilled Immigration Points Calculator
I've given up fighting the urge to buy index puts
Duration / strike?
I own June 85s and 97s on SPY.
barfly - Well they require J6P, as the perfect consumer. He is the base and the only thing real in the whole inverted pyramid. That's why it is so vital to keep him buying, consuming, and in a mortgage and car loan. The entire system's stability requires J6P to behave as a predictable consumer even though it despises him and his sad, average existence. Stop buying, minimize consumption, and that system collapses of itself.
Like I said last week...
A year ago nobody wanted to go into the weekend long.
Now, no one wants to go into it short.
Woo Hoo!
Operation "Screw the Shorts" successfully commended at 12:53 PM.
Proceeding according to plan.
bearly wrote:
It would be better news if it in fact was being paid down. If it is write offs as you suggest then unless the banks suffer amnesia it probably means a permanently lower level of debt rather than a pause that allows re-borrowing. However, personal consumption in September did decrease by 47Billion so a reduction of 14 billion from current period cash flow is certainly possible.
And still the ol timers rock in their chairs on the stoop muttering about expatriation...
Time to sh!t or get off the pot, guys.
Before we pull up the ladder behind us.
C
Actually, if companies had bothered to have their books in order and done a decent job of setting up their ERP systems; Sarbox wouldn't have been that hard to comply with. All of the companies that made multiple acquisitions and never bothered to integrate their systems or botched their ERP setups; would have had a hard time.
SPY March 95s mostly. Plus one OEX November 470 for gambling purposes.
Ok, HAL, bring'er in nice and easy on 10010.
C
My understanding is that Sarbanes Oxley added a significant cost ( in the millions) to companies planning to go IPO.
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote:
If the US dollar is coming to an end, it's not.
If the rest of the world doesn't mind us devaluing the dollar, it is.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
The system has to maintain equilibrium.
Has to.
That's where the Libertarians fall apart.
All they understand is one side - "make stuff".
Can't everybody making stuff all the time.
Somebody has to buy and use it.
RiF - sure, that's why they shipped all our jobs overseas, and downsized every other way they could, putting us in the most severe wage competition we've seen in our lifetime. Yeah, they need us, alright.
Counterpointer wrote:
Looks like it's too late, man.
I read through the Australian immigration policy docs and it clearly specifies "18 to 45" for "occupational immigration".
The unexpected side effect of global national retirement policies.
Let me get my post ready.
"Stocks finish near highs of the day as traders overlooked weak employment report and focused on [fradulent] brokerage upgrades"
broward wrote:
Somalia is the best example of the Libertarians' wet dream: limited government and unregulated free enterprise. How's that working out for everybody?
Mea Culpa of the century
Citigroup founder sorry it was ever born
'I'm sorry' Citigroup was ever born, co-founder says | Money & Company | Los Angeles Times
rosethorn wrote:
I watched a small public company blow millions on an Oracle ERP system, trying to comply with Sarbox. The resulting system barely worked after over a year of effort, and made it very difficult to do business.
"RiF - sure, that's why they shipped all our jobs overseas, and downsized every other way the could, putting us in the most severe wage competition we've seen in our lifetime. Yeah, they need us, alright."
That's the problem when every company focuses on just their own economic welfare.
How does a company increase profitability? Outsource jobs, automate and cut to the bone.
What happens to a 70 percent consumption based economy that is approximately 20% of the world GDP when every company does the above?
You're getting the answer now.
Markar wrote:
Amazing. ... said Reed. "When you’re running a company, you do what you think is right for the stockholders. Right now I’m looking at this as a citizen."
horah!
"You could potentially immigrate to Australia under the Skilled - Independent category based on the criteria you entered."
Markar wrote:
Interesting line from the article: "We learn from our mistakes," said Reed. "When you’re running a company, you do what you think is right for the stockholders. Right now I’m looking at this as a citizen."
I had no idea the two were mutually exclusive.
Sounds like some serious Frankensteinian creator's guilt.
broward - not too late for me, I'm outta Dodge already.
Actually, I wonder if there's money to be made pushing for pension portability... Eg. take what's left of yr 401k or cash up before the dollar tanks, and take it somewhere with bigger purchasing power.
C
barfly wrote:
They do.
The gigantor empire of $$$$ is worthless if we stop buying stuff.
Worthless for everybody
We are now all Donald Trump.
oh, well.
I read through the Australian immigration policy docs and it clearly specifies "18 to 45" for "occupational immigration".
You have to bring in lots of money and prove you can support yourself if you are older
barfly (profile) wrote on Fri, 11/6/2009 - 4:00 pm
RiF - sure, that's why they shipped all our jobs overseas, and downsized every other way the could, putting us in the most severe wage competition we've seen in our lifetime. Yeah, they need us, alright.
It's love/hate and an abusive, complicated relationship. But we are the predictable variable, the dupe that enables their entire financial pyramid, and that in turn is what they depend on to live in luxury above the rest of us. Our only "payoff" is a moderately more sophisticated lifestyle enabled by easy access to personal credit that gets used for more consumption.
Ok, HAL, bring'er in nice and easy on 10010.
Is that in binary? 18 seems a little low even for me.
this clearly a sign of a robust recovery.
s for everyone!
Spunkmeyer wrote:
Why would they be compatible?
CNBC 'Closing Bell' Reporting -
Not a bad day in the stock market despite the 'weak employment' or 'jobless recovery'...
Elvis has.... left the country!
That's unfortunate...I'm sure there are many similar occurrences. It's an issue with the ERP/accountant sales pitches. The problem is that accounting firms have an interest in convincing management to go for the most complex "solution", which generates massive billing hours for the accountants and the Oracle people.
Now, btw. Later..
poic (profile) wrote on Fri, 11/6/2009 - 4:03 pm
How does a company increase profitability? Outsource jobs, automate and cut to the bone.
What happens to a 70 percent consumption based economy that is approximately 20% of the world GDP when every company does the above?
You're getting the answer now.
Yes. "They" seem to never be able to stop at the point where they would have gotten away with it. That's the tragic part. It almost worked.
ille_vir wrote:
Exactly. They seldom are. Another Libertarian fantasy. At least the Socialists and Fascists aren't confuses who's supposed to be on top of the pyramid, but only the Fascist can implement their fantasy..
Let's see if I can still read between the lines:
So the demi-Gods are prepared to offer up Citi as a sacrificial lamb to appease the dark chaos swirling outside the temple grounds, huh?
Short that b***h into the ground. Sounds like we just lost one more chair ... better hope the music keeps playing!
Bubblisimo Gerkinov wrote 1:52 pm
How is gold not a bubble right now?
go to kitco
Kitco - Gold Precious Metals - Buy Gold Sell Gold, Silver,
Platinum - Charts, Graphs, Prices, Quotes, Gold Stocks, Mining Stocks,
bullion dealers
scroll down till you see the graph of one year gold on the right side
click just below that, on the 5 year graph link
check out the slope and decide ,
given what you know about inflation 3 or 4 years ago
and present destruction of the US dollar
whether or not things look frothy
then ask yourself why india and china are accumulating gold
and what thee end of us dollar hegemony might mean
finally... to help you decide
flip a coin...
preferable a gold coin if you have one
Even in tough times, it's good to be a lawmaker: According to a report released this week by the Center for Responsive Politics, there are 237 millionaires serving in Congress, according to 2008 figures.
That's a slight decline from the previous year, when there were 239 millionaires in the House and Senate. But it still reflects the fact that the average lawmaker is far wealthier than his or her typical constituent. While about one percent of Americans are millionaires, 44 percent of those serving in Congress can claim as much.
---CBS News
We've proven beyond any shadow of a doubt we are the best shoppers on the planet for snakeoil, bad mortgages, cheap crap, frankenfood and overpriced goods for 'acceptance' of our peers whoever they are. Shop til you drop and CHARGE (it)!! Haven't heard that rally cry for awhile now.
Keeping up with the Jone's now means converting your ARM into a squid like projection. Botox parties are now include an infusion directly into BRAINS.
HomeGnome wrote:
1%. That can't be right, can it?! Is that by income?
Paul Krugman discussed this today
Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com
All the money printing comes to naught because the credit channels are broken - or as Krugman said, "any changes in the money supply are offset one for one by changes in velocity." So massive pumping has very little effect on prices or GDP.
Of course, some of the cash that has been pumped into the economy will eventually end up in the hands of people who want to buy something besides financial assets. Then we get to find out whether Bernanke can use the broken credit channels to siphon money out of the economy any more effectively than he can pump it in. Or to mix metaphors, if the string is broken it might not matter whether he is pushing or pulling.
albrt wrote:
A good visual tho.
Counterpointer wrote:
Problem is most Americans don't have any notion of the dollars value relative to other currencies. They are about to be educated in a most unpleasant fashion.
"They" need us to scrap amongst ourselves for an ever dwindling supply of jobs, so they can keep an ever bigger cut of the pie. That's all. Otherwise, we're nothing to them.
albrt wrote:
BRAVO!
Commercial break
'Buy your Gold where I buy mine!'
Obviously, the real issue isn't whether a Citi co-founder now thinks we would be better off without it ...
the question is, who is this message aimed at, and why are they telling them now?
threetorches wrote:
A libertarian patriot's lament. He noticed his flag-pin and had some guilt, probably after a nice bottle of wine.
I'll take anyone silly enough to still own Citi's stock and this is your final obtuse warning- for $500 Alec.
I just polled a Double Digit Doozy
I'm not proud of myself.
Nanoo-Nanoo (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 11/6/2009 - 4:13 pm
We've proven beyond any shadow of a doubt we are the best shoppers on the planet for snakeoil, bad mortgages, cheap crap, frankenfood and overpriced goods for 'acceptance' of our peers whoever they are. Shop til you drop and CHARGE (it)!! Haven't heard that rally cry for awhile now.
Keeping up with the Jone's now means converting your ARM into a squid like projection. Botox parties are now include an infusion directly into BRAINS.
The only part of nature that's really left to exploit is human psychology. It should be pretty clear by now that it is already a pretty sophisticated business. Don't forget your "peers" now include sports stars and celebrities, plus any Jane or Joe UnAverage that HGTV can serve up.
threetorches wrote:
It seems to me that seeking personal redemption can be a powerful motive, having watched Arthur Levitt apologize for really no personal benefit other than his conscience on the Frontline episode about Brooksley Born.
Citi's stock value kind of speaks for itself ... what I don't know much about is the amount and quality of Citi's debt and derivative exposure and off-balance-sheet activities.
Any of those big shredder trucks pulling up outside headquarters late at night in the last couple of weeks?
albrt wrote:
Quoted of course from what bugeyes wrote.
I would enjoy hearing from albrt as to what Kman meant, and how he sees this taking on a life of its own, outside the arena where Bombs Away Ben, et alia can control it.
Prior thread...
NaRm - '...the real problem is the nobility's control of the government...'
Forgot to high five ya.
the mea culpa is his recognition of his part in the "great damage". Maybe he should return his multi-millions, too.
Gold has one unique characteristic that other commodities don't, which is as a perceived safe haven and constant medium of exchange in times of general turmoil. So, when gold diverges significantly from other commodities, it means there's turmoil...somewhere.
I agree that certainly it is possible he is sincere in his pensive and reflective musings.
But timing is often more important than content in such matters.
albrt wrote:
As much as one for one? If he can prove that he deserves his Memorial Prize. If he can't he's talking out his arse and needs to just plain old admit he threw good money after bad.
rich wrote:
you are becoming a master of the understatement
I reckon there have been more than one discussion in trading rooms and boardroom suites where some spit ended up on each others chin.
And the announcement was basically, "Lately I have been imagining a world without Citi ..."
I must say in my travels throughout Asia in the last 5 years I've been very impressed with their ability to pickup our mindless consumption patterns, use of credit cards, middle class living beyond their means etc..
Given enough time and growth of salaries there's a huge mindless consumption class waiting to be pillaged by Wall Street.
But it's going to take years until they make up for world-wide consumption that the US currently comprises.
I won't buy their crocodile tears until they start divesting themselves from their ill-gotten gains in a big way. I'm not holding my breath, though. We're just going to have to take it from them. Period.
I made a few coin in SRS today. Just saying.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Which is what politics and religion really is. Now advertising for our corporate masters.
RIF: Psychology (another very imperfect science) is being exploited directly and indirectly. Had your SSRI today, are your kids ADD needing meds or are they really just bright and bored stiff? Marketeers will use all sorts of psychological devices to entice us to buy, like odors, sounds, lighting, colors and product placement on shelves. That in and of itself is BIG business. Those devices used for that 'impulse' buy is utilized everywhere including the grocery store where the sugary sweet cereals are placed where kiddies can grab them/see them.
"Imagine there's no Citi
It's easy if you try
For the billions that they owe us
Taxpayers wish them all to fry..."
C
/sorry John.
"I made a few coin in SRS today. Just saying. "
Bet you lost a few coin as well on that beast in the past
I know I did.
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 11/6/2009 - 4:29 pm
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
The only part of nature that's really left to exploit is human psychology.
Which is what politics and religion really is. Now advertising for our corporate masters.
Yes indeed. Another in a growing and long line of Sad, sad truths...
YouTube - The End of the Innocence
Somalia is great if you happen to be a warlord or pirate. Less good if you're anyone else. How is that so different than the U.S. where a tiny elite holds all the wealth and power? In fact their system is better in that one becomes a warlord based largely on merit.
volker the viking wrote:
I am not sure what he meant, ultimately, but I think he is suggesting that demand is more of a problem than money supply in a liquidity trap. As far as I can tell he does not believe that the liquidity genie will be hard to get back into the bottle, ala the I-Tulip Ka-Poom model.
Well, well, FAZ vol still holding above 100m daily. Price isn't doing jack though.
Bloomberg.com:
Personal Finance
C
Y'all hear about the Florida atty with the huge (but not in Madoff's league)
ponzi scheme?
The problem with Xmas pop-up shopping is...when people go to the store on December 26 to take stuff back, the store is empty.
The $25 Billion Dollar Secret
A 25 Billion Dollar Secret: The NY Fed, Goldman & The AIG Cover-Up - Home - The Daily Bail
Friedman and Geithner are BASTARDS
That wasn't you, was it, Liz?
Rob Dawg wrote:
I think he just means the right side of the equation does not respond much to changes on the left side. It isn't literally one for one, since one factor is measured in trillions and the other is usually in single digits. But for all I know when the Fed is pumping money into the banks and then paying the banks to park the money in treasuries it could be greater than "one to one," meaning less money moving through the real economy than if nothing was done at all.
barfly wrote:
Details via Bloomberg:
Reed’s Compensation
From 1997 to 1999, Reed received salary and bonuses totaling $23.4 million, according to Citigroup filings. In 2000, he received a retirement bonus of $5 million, filings show. Citigroup provides him with an assistant and a New York office, for which he pays taxes, he said.
Because rich, smart people want to get their hands on it.
And they don't want you to know who they are or where their gold is going.
Or where they're going soon, when you're still sitting here holding the bag.
Yeah, I'm surprised the guy came back after disappearing. Guess he couldn't get a Paraguayan visa.
albrt wrote:
if past is prologue...
It won't end well, as we all agree. I'm just trying to get a gauge or a read of how you, or any other thoughtful observer, sees it playing out. Not in extremis, rather, wish to hear something more thoughtful.
Perhaps a guest post from you.
rich wrote:
G. Gordon Liddy?
Nah, I'm smart enought to take the money and run!
Mr Slippery just sold a little gold.
I see gold ads all over the Internet, not just econ-related sites. I hear gold ads on conservative and air america radio stations. I see gold ads on most TV stations.
I love
, but there may be a bit too much euphoria building.
edit: it is still not a bad buy at this level if your time frame is 5-10 years, but I think we see a sharp correction within 6 months.
the mea culpa
He can get together with Greenspan and shed a tear.
Citi's stock price is singularly a consequence of a Dick Bove buy call. Its fascinating how someone so wrong so often is listened. to. He has an uncanny ability to be consistently wrong.
volker the viking wrote:
Sorry, little or no insight, other than not being able to see any very good outcomes. Keeping my eyes open and my bases covered as best I can.
"Because rich, smart people want to get their hands on it.
And they don't want you to know who they are or where their gold is going.
Or where they're going soon, when you're still sitting here holding the bag. "
You mean like the rich, smart people buying up tech pre-boom or cre pre-boom or mbs pre-boom?
I'm not saying that gold is in a bubble, but the whole rich, smart people as a reason for why it's not in a bubble doesn't cut the mustard for me.
On taxes, we all agree:
Tax everyone else, but me.
I could care less
That our schools are a mess,
And all other services should be free.
Death to Citi!! (the corporation) Tear it to shreds and dump salt into their servers.
Cramer needs to have a special banking stock-tips section on his show just for Dick Bove.
Cramer can dress up and act like a clown and Dick Bove can give his clown banking stock calls.
Boy has the Fed re-ignited risk appetite, or what?
These are the ttm PE ratios of my shorts:
AAPL = 31
AMZN = 74
CRM = 121
GOOG = 36
HPQ = 17
IBM = 13 (What's wrong with them?!)
PCLN = 37
JWN = 23
URBN = 31
WFMI = 43
On average, a PE ratio of nearly 45 for these stocks. Wow, just wow. And keep in mind that these are stocks that, in general, did not suffer dramatic earnings drops. Not yet anyways.
crazyaces wrote:
I'm hopeful this will be addressed when the economic crisis is over.
OT: LL-esque Moment
, but it made my day. 
.
We have a client in the middle of a divorce. Mother of multiple children. Been married for the past 17 years. Finds out via discovery that her husband has been paying child support--via wage garnishment--to 2 different women for 2 different children. Apparently it can affect some of her child support/alimony 'cause other women beat her to the trough.
.
It isn't RE/Foreclosure
Easy to understand economics: You can't get a modification if you don't have a job.
Advanced economics: '...central banks don't supply the money supply, they only control the monetary base...
The bottom line is that when you're in a liquidity trap, focusing on nominal magnitudes doesn't clarify matters; It obscures them'.
- Paul Krugman, 'The Conscience of a Liberal', Nov. 6, 2009
Shave Rubin's head, clawback his payoffs and parade him naked thru
row. Then banish him from these shores! He can take O'neil with him.
albrt wrote:
perhaps CR might stumble across someone for a guest post, even a series of posts.
I'm without credentials, but others are not.
Came by just to drop this jem on you doom jockeys:
"I can remember one occasion, taking a shower with my wife while high, in which I had an idea on the origins and invalidities of racism in terms of gaussian distribution curves. It was a point obvious in a way, but rarely talked about. I drew the curves in soap on the shower wall, and went to write the idea down. One idea led to another, and at the end of about an hour of extremely hard work I found I had written eleven short essays on a wide range of social, political, philosophical, and human biological topics." - Carl Sagan.
l8r t8rs
Okay, I'll fess up. Where it stands right now, I've both made and lost big money on SRS over the last year and a half.
For every dollar I've lost on SRS, I've made about two.
I can't say the same about EEV. For every dollar I've made on EEV, I've probably lost two.
The difference is timing. They both suck as investments. Once I get out of double shorts this time, I'm out of them for good.
As to the 4 year old--4 year olds, being human beings, can take title to property.
The problem is, getting it out again. And did the 4 year old sign the mortgage?
Title holders have to sign mtges!! 4 year olds are not 18 year olds!!
So if the lender wants to foreclose, the 4 year old has a defense!! Plus, the
lender might, depending on the state, have to set up a guardianship with a guardian
to protect his or her interests, and have somebody to serve.
What fun!!! I hope I get one of those!
One thing that amuses me is when somebody generalizes "Asians," which currently compromise 60% of the population of the world. How do people manage to have a general understanding of 4 billion people, perhaps on the basis of having an Asian spouse? "My travels throughout Asia" and "their ability" indeed. Ah well, I'm getting a bit too snarky. Nap time.
They grow up so fast these days...
~splat
You say that now but the allure is often too strong.
doom jockeys
---I like it!
Can someone please explain (again) why its important to our country that GS makes $100 million a day - and that we needed to give them $15 billion or so so they may continue to do that.
OTISHERTZ
Can someone please explain (again) why its important to our country that GS makes $100 million a day - and that we needed to give them $15 billion or so so they may continue to do that.
They bought the government, fair and square.
If you had paid for some politician, wouldn't you want him to stay bought?
moved to vermont,
Yes, concerning GS that would be U.S. economic policy which is independent from 'politics'...
To all public co's with questionable results. It was an awesome piece of 'seen to be doing something' govt. legislation.
~splat
I guess our Fed/Treasury has created a system where they are forced to make all their deals with acknowledged pathological liars and crooks. Difficult to imagine how that could possibly work out in the govt's favor.
did anyone catch or post this?
Petition: U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (Vermont)
Petition to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner
Too Big to Fail is Too Big to Exist
ille_vir
By Asian countries I mean having visited China,Singapore,Hong Kong,, Thailand , Vietnam.
Plus what my Indian co-workers/friends tell me about the spending patterns back in India.
Plus hearing from my brother living in Thailand and having visited on multiple occasions almost every country surrounding Thailand (Cambodia, Malaysia and a few others).
That's quite a wide swathe of Asia where I've seen first-hand or heard second hand about general consumption trends.
Increase in consumption, increase in use of credit cards, drastic difference in spending patterns between the younger and the older generation.
Just passing on what I heard and/or observe first hand.
rich wrote:
"never trust a junkie"
YouTube - Ministry - Just One Fix (live Sphinctour 1996)
It helps fund the 3rd party in congress, the Kleptocrats .
~splat
Vermont,
That is econ policy that is independent from the 'political will' of The People (kind of 'politics')...
Timmah doesn't read the pathetic mewings of the LITTLE PEOPLE.
~splat
The consumer doesn't need private credit when the gov't is spending on credit for us. Just need more of C4C and housing credit programs and such. There. Problem solved.
Let me try a different way of saying it. As confidence in the future of paper money declines, gold goes up. Gold is only in a bubble if there's relatively high gold price and also relatively high confidence in the future of paper money.
Let's say you are a hedge fund manager who made $10 million last year. And you look at the front page of today's NY Times and see...uh, oh, there could soon be 1,000 people like me indicted for insider trading. And you're watching the dollar tank and thinking...how is this $10 million gonna help me buy real financial security, in a land with no extradition treaty far, far away?
The JUNIOR Senator means the odds of it getting traction is SLIM to NONE. He is btw a card carrying socialist, cue Seinfeld: "not that there is anything wrong with that".
Difficult to imagine how that could possibly work out in the govt's favor.
how else to make a profit?
You sure?
I know someone who bought AAPL in the 80s and just sold in the 160s. She got out early but is still one happy camper.
I'm still holding my AMZN that I bought in 98' >; )
better a jockey than a junkie.
Reverse Repo Failure Confirmation, Primary Dealers Want Exemption From Tier One Capital Requirements To Do Reverse Repos | zero hedge
"After growing somewhat frustrated with the feasibility of doing large-scale reverse repurchase agreements with non-traditional counterparties, the Federal Reserve has begun to focus more on doing these reserve-draining operations with the primary dealer community when the time comes, Market News International understands.
The Fed has been informed by dealers that they would be willing to enter into very sizable amounts of reverse repos with the Fed, if asked to do so, provided they could get some relief from Tier I capital constraints, MNI also understands."
Ummm....
The guy with the multiple kids--see--here is evolution in action!!
Where ya been, Code Otis?
moved to vermont because wrote:
Because of free enterprise, and democracy. It people like you - people trying to stir-up class-warfare - that don't realize it takes the hard-working honest bidness leaders of Merica (PEOPLE THAT WORK FOR A LIVING, AND PAY TAXES, UNLIKE THOSE LAZY WELFARE QUEEN) leaders that take risks and get rewarded for those risk, proving every day that capitalism and Merica are the best in the entire whole-wide-world, a world that envy us because risk taking bidness leaders are taking risks and getting honest and just reward - because they take risks - and people like YOU communists want to take their hard-earned profits AND GIVE THEM TO THOSE WELFARE QUEENS AND THOSE UNEMPLOYED LOSER THAT EXPECT TO RECEIVE UNEMPLYMENT FOREVER, GET A JOB YOU HIPPIES.
I believe that the Kleptocrats are the ONLY party in congress. The Republicans and Democrats are merely factions within the party.
Oh, what the heck difference does it make?
I've been hanging out with the handicapped.
True but a girl has to find hope where she can!
ps. Bernie, if your staff is reading this, please come to CA and take Fienstien's seat. Extra points if "someone's" rogue staffer curbs her on the way out.
Maybe you still are.
We are handicapped in believing our lying eyes!!
rich wrote:
I think confidence in paper money will continue to decline, but I also think a whole lot of promised paper money (credit) is going to vanish, leaving less paper money in proportion to gold (not counting paper gold).
Fair enough. I definitely value your contributions here, but sometimes the generalizations (perhaps not from you, but from others) seem a bit much. Thx for the background.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
You know I picture you as Archie Bunker, right?
"I've been hanging out with the handicapped. "
You've been hanging with Elvis?
Less than an hour left to vote in the BFF Poll!
Being as I'm somewhat naive - does the $100 million GS "earns" everyday come out of the pockets of our citizenry or from somewhere else? Is it a zero sum game whereby GS basically sucks it out of us.
Never mind how many banks are going to fail today. How many households are going to fail today? That's the imporant number. Who cares about the dumb banks.
So why did you move to Vermont? I moved to Vermont too.
GS is the great vampire
...all it knows how to do is SUCK.
United Security Bank. Sparta GA
i miss carl sagan
Eric wrote:
Sure is tempting though. Tough to fight the Fed. What do they do next?
Nice Bear.
BFF Poll is closed!
does the $100 million GS "earns" everyday come out of the pockets of our citizenry or from somewhere else?
apparently, every transaction made every day everywhere in the world makes money for GS.
Mr. Slippery,
How are you factoring in the relationship of paper gold to physical? Because I'd speculate that as a whole lot of paper money disappears, a huge amount of paper gold will follow.
The relationship between paper money and REAL gold however, is what really matters. And that is (either temporarily, or longer term depending on your outlook) linked to paper gold for the moment and manipulated by the Fed and other primary dealers.
The statistic I've seen cited is that the ratio of paper gold to physical is approximately 100x.
Wow, a failure before I even headed out to Merritt Island.
beginning early today.
barfly wrote:
Must be nice to be able to front run ever trade and have a direct line to all of the policymakers.
I sold "high" in 2005 thinking I would buy "low". Two years to early it seems and VT is anything but cheap. Fortunately the last year has proven me correct. That and the urgency of NYC no longer had any appeal. Vt is pretty sane and in balance in a lot of ways. Vt should move to Europe.
Must be nice to be able to front run ever trade and have a direct line to all of the policymakers.
who said there's no such thing as free money?
moved to vermont because wrote:
It is true that Goldman Sachs produces no net value for the economy, and instead simply skims all the economic value out of everyone else's economic activity. In that sense it is a zero sum game.
But the reason apparently smart people keep buying into it is because they are like Crazy Eddie - they believe they can lose money on every transaction, but make it up on velocity. If only the Goldman Sachs employees get several shoeshines a day and tip well, the employment problems will be solved.
The taxpayer has their back......Frig up, The US Taxpayer has their back. Their traders probably are in Vegas, risk means nothing, The US Taxpayers have their back.
join the club- when did you move and from where
Gold ain't gonna help you with that. $10mm in gold is 23 bullion bars, not really gonna fit in your suitcase. Do you'll have to ship them along with your other posessions in an intermodal container. cue all the hassles.
Say you just say screw it, I'll just wire the money bit by bit. Congratulations, you're now guity of bundling!!
$10mm in large carat precious stones is fungible, readily portionable & concealable. Of course you actually have to know your stones and where to buy them cheaply, but such is life.
Of course, you could buy real assets using shell corporations routed through Nevada and Panama.......
First Annual Carl Sagan Day
Carl Sagan Day
Marijuana Uses - Dr. Lester Grinspoon's Marijuana Uses
I've got some puts on GS because if I make money out of this mess, I want to be able to tell people I made it betting against the squid.
"How do people manage to have a general understanding of 4 billion people, perhaps on the basis of having an Asian spouse? "My travels throughout Asia" and "their ability" indeed. Ah well, I'm getting a bit too snarky. Nap time."
Not sure about Asia generally, but there's definitely a Chinese culture and most Chinese people's attitudes (self-consciously) reflect it. You really see this once you learn the language well enough that they'd rather speak Chinese with you, and you start getting their "Chinese personality."
It's different from the U.S., where everyone tries to be a beautiful, unique snowflake.
Also, most of the U.S. China experts seem to have the baseline assumptions that inside every Chinese person is an American, trying to get out, and China is progressing towards multicultural liberal democracy. This is crap, IMO, as a meaningful level of interaction with actual Chinese people makes clear, let alone spending any time over there.
So, yeah, having a Chinese spouse, traveling there, etc gives you meaningful insight into the culture.