The report suggests the first sector to recover will be apartments as "people who were forced to move back in with their parents seek their own places as soon as they find jobs".
And maybe nursing homes as people who were forced to move back in with their kids?
(EDIT: oops, phone rang and I hit "save" instead of "discard" as I left the computer. message repaired.)
Will the real leader please stand up. Michael Moore? Marcy Kapture? Ralph Nader?
There are ten million Americans waiting for someone to give us a date to march on Washington.
We need publicly funded campaigns. no more Pay to Play. Insist that your congressman support HR1826 and Senate bill S752; the Fair Elections Now Act.
I’M MAD AS HELL AND I’M NOT GONNA TAKE IT ANYMORE!
We all know the pirating business is booming. When looking for a scallywag to join your crew, what credentials and skill sets do you want? Moreover, how do I get you my resume? As you will see, I have a history of pillaging, sword fighting, and scoundelry, so I believe I could be an asset to your ship.
Driving through Westwood Village (West LA near UCLA and Wilshire) last night I was shocked at the extent of storefront devastation. It made a nice bookend to my past decade of wondering how those places ever made rent nevermind payroll.
The report suggests the first sector to recover will be apartments as "people who were forced to move back in with their parents seek their own places as soon as they find jobs".
Quick update for those interested: Unconfirmed reports of 2 dead in the Orlando shooting. The shooter was a former employee as a transportation engineer laid off 2 years ago for 'performance issues'. Last I heard, he still hasn't been found.
"Nemo, I thought this was a pretty optimistic post!"
it is...what you are sayin is
after the four drillings and fillings
the two extractions
the root canal
and finally deep cleaning with those long metal probes of the roots,
and then the polishing with that glodfull awful fluoride chemical
we will be and feel all better
"The report suggests the first sector to recover will be apartments as "people who were forced to move back in with their parents seek their own places as soon as they find jobs".
After they find a job? Uhoh gonna be a loooong time to recovery then.
Unless we get that snap-back hiring that last happened during the 80s.
Oh wait we're a service based economy now not production based and the last 2 recessions proved the jobs don't come back.
Hmm, jobless recovery and the first sector to recover will be apartments as soon as people find jobs.
The excess inventory of homes built during the boom will require about a 12 year period of sustained "underbuilding" to get supply and demand back to equilibrium. However, bulldozing would accelate the period.
Why do they need apartments when the landscape will be littered with spacious, abandoned luxury homes. "Let's see. Section 8 housing or that mansion? I'll take the mansion."
“Help-wanted advertising is contracting,” reports John Williams of Shadowstats, with one of his preferred employment metrics. “The Conference Board’s newspaper help-wanted advertising index for September (a leading indicator to October’s employment report) fell to a new record low of 9, from the prior low of 10 that had held for the preceding four months. This new 58-year low is a very negative signal for background employment conditions.
You can't look at your happitimes trading screen and not see natgas -10% in three days and not know what is coming even if you can never know when it is coming to the stuff you trade.
I'm telling you people. In the next presidential election, "bulldozing" will be the key campaign buzzword for the eventual victor.
Both candidates in the next election will be receiving significant campaign contributions from the financial sector. Bulldozing would force ever financial institution with an affected CRE or RE loan to recognize the losses on their financial statements. This would render them instantly insolvent.
There isn't a chance in hell any candidate will make this a pillar of their campaign platform.
noob,
The gov't pays for the foreclosures then bulldozes them. The banks get their money. Good times. Perhaps this is why you won's be our next president.
I was recently exposed to a novel idea + EARTH - TOO BIG TO FAIL
It was based on the idea that we could come up with a trillion dollars to save the the too big to fail banks. But when it comes to GHG we talk about the economic impact. I don't think there is any doubt that the banksters have caused a greater decline in GDP than sensible GHG regulation will. There is also no doubt that the science supporting the premise that the big banks were too big to fail is a lot weaker than the science behind climate change. Plus the consequences of climate change are more severe and enduring than the consequences of too big to fail banks.
If Incomes are Down, Where is the Economic Spending coming from? Industrial Production Still Lower, Credit Contraction, and Average Work Week at Record Low. Wells Fargo Considering Converting Option ARMs to Interest Only Loans.
Market's up because Wall Street threw out a bunch of upgrades today. Who cares about double digit unemployment when Wall Street thinks this is a favorable entry point for GE?
Bank of America announced they are exiting FFELP as of December 5th
This is the end of government student lending. Big guys are getting out. Should be interesting for next school year. The private loans CAN be defaulted on. I know what I'd be doing if I were a student.
As I noted yesterday, I talked this week to a senior commercial loan officer of a regional (based in virginia) and he was seeing leases reworked with 20% reduction in rent.
An interesting take on the employment report by MaxedOutMama:
Now I believe the household survey, because last quarter's FUT basically bore it out. Further, the best fit between WIET and household is for some government hiring, because the MoM losses slowed, and on average government jobs pay much better than private industry.
Now I have been pretty much ignoring the establishment survey, because once its index of weekly earnings started to diverge strongly from WIET receipts, I figured it had become too unreliable for use. Nominal is nominal, and when establishment shows average private weekly earnings going up, but nominal FICA tax receipts are going down, I gave up on that data.
When the team is punting on first down, you know you are bad.
My last year of college we couldn't find a punter who could consistently kick the ball past the line of scrimmage--or maybe more to the point we had trouble finding a long snapper who could get the ball to the punter before the rush got there.
When the team has to go for it on fourth and 20 from their own 2, you know you are bad.
Checking in from RE land in metrowest Boston. Slow to dead. Wellesley actually had an OK October, but other towns not so much. It's tough out there; sellers are pulling their hair out from what I hear.
Too bad there are 5 families with average head of household age at 55 for every 3 families with head of household aged 30.
An astute reader noticed that the BLS press release says that 190,000 jobs were lost from payroll employment, but the number of unemployed persons increased by 558,000. What's up with that?
so just bulldoze properties owned by the FHA, GSEs, and the FRB.
Destroying the property linked to an MBS would result in a destruction of the value of the MBS, which would hit financial institutions that hold them, right? Even though the GSE owns them, it's packaged and sold (or was packaged and sold) to Wall Street, which would mean that unless the government fronted the value of the property, it would have to be realized on the value of the MBS.
And if the government was going to spend billions on buying up junky homes to destroy them, how do you think that's going to play on the news? Can you not hear most homeowners saying "why isn't the government just giving me the money, instead of paying off the bank for that crappy house?"
crazyv (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 11/6/2009 - 11:18 am
EvilHenryPaulson - you are confusing the payroll and household survey. The bench mark revisions don't effect the household survey and that is used to calculate the unemployment rate. BTW which is why I think it is a better measure than the payroll number.
thanks for correcting me! I have been wrong in saying that more than once. I had assumed the unemployment rates used a blend of the CPS and CES data
We've actually been hunting for a ~1k sq ft space in that area. (90024/64) Lot's of space for lease, but LL's aren't lowering rates. You know, 'cuz it's different here in LA! We can wait... In other news, there are about 3 or4 new restaurants (adding to the 900 or so that are already here) scheduled to open on W 3rd street. No recession here.
Very few people ever site TrimTabs, which uses FICA and Withholding taxes to estimate employment. They've been tracking closer to the household survey (-286K) this month. It's hard to say who is right, since your biases will push you to the number that best suits your pre-disposition towards the economy.
"..you not hear most homeowners saying "why isn't the government just giving me the money, instead of paying off the bank for that crappy house?"
No. They would scream (in a tortured, mournful way) "That crappy house needs to die! It caused me so much heartache! Good riddance, you home from hell!"
Didn't have anybody who could kick a 115-yard field goal, either.
I mis-remembered, though--it was freshman year. I just looked up the results on the school's website to see if it was as bad as I thought it was. We lost games by 55-0, 56-0. 55-0, 35-0, 28-0 and 42-0.
Which was a good year. One of our coaches had a career record of 1-48.
"I'm serious--if you hold SRS for six months you're going to get killed even if the underlying stocks collapse. "
Only true during the great reflation/manipulation phase.
When there was less government interference and collusion back a year ago I successfully held SRS for multi-month periods.
Funny how that doesn't work when save real-estate values at all costs is the mantra and REITS are allowed to count stock dispersal as dividends and selectively prevent buy-in on new stock floats.
Price decay due to volatility. 2% up and down alternating over 10 days leaves you down 2%. It's worse the higher the vol, and the vol is higher due to the leverage.
I wouldn't even afford to wash them. Just stand them up in the corner each evening. Had to cut back on water and detergent at that time due to the hardship fed.gov was imposing on me.
On the bright side atleast I don't have to worry about those pesky capital gain taxes I was looking at from the previous six months.
My brokerage account turned into a poor mans delta neutral fund.
HomeGnome (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 11/6/2009 - 3:52 pm replyIgnore user One ping only.
excellent... you know my grandfather used to take me fishing on a river much like this one..... 0 or better " hmm, realistically i give our chances ......one in three."
Right now I am eating a stuff Cornish game hen with a light gravy, new potatoes, and a vegetable medley. Tasty. Still shocked I can get that here in Tahiti.
They just opened an upscale bistro in a low rent strip mall by my house. There it is, nestled between a Chinese take-out place and a drycleaners. The triumph of optimism over common sense.
We've given up on the West Side. Preparing to move elsewhere.
Sadly, the clients we serve are afraid to leave the confines of the westside. Terrified of all those poor people west of, oh... Beverly Glen. So we wait... where you looking to move to?
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Outstanding consumer debt fell at a 7.2% annual rate in September, the eighth consecutive decline, the Federal Reserve reported Friday. Consumer credit fell by $14.8 billion to $2.46 trillion in September, down 4.7% compared with a year ago. Outstanding credit can fall if consumers pay off balances, or if lenders write off bad loans. The decline in September was led by another huge drop in revolving debt, such as credit cards, which fell $9.9 billion to $889 billion, or a 13.3% annual rate. Nonrevolving debt -- such as auto loans, student loans and other personal loans -- fell $4.9 billion to $1.57 trillion, or a 3.7% annual rate.
"Heading into 2009, metropolitan Seattle was rated No. 1 for commercial and multifamily-housing investment among the nation's top 50 markets in the annual forecast prepared by the Urban Land Institute, a growth think tank, and the accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers."
"The report's thumbnail forecast for Seattle says the recession and bank troubles will "harpoon" the local market next year."
The fed is about 75% of the way through their announced $1.45 trillion mortgage purchase sham. At a 4.5% interest rate, the Fed will be collecting ~ $65 billion in interest payments that used to flow to banks and investors. That's a LOT of $$$$$.
Here's the worst of it. After the losses are out of the system, the Fed will hand that gravy train back over to Wall St.
I'm of the opinion, we don't need Wall St. ever again in the mortgage market. Let the GSE's and the fed handle it, but with iron clad lending rules - 20% down and 36% DTI max.
I we are taking the risk of the losses, let's keep the future gains too. Force banks and Wall St. to find productive endeavors to deploy capital. Inflating property is negative value added.
nearly 20,000 returns for people who may not have actually purchased homes; thousands for people who already owned homes; 3,200 taxpayers who could not prove they were in the country legally; and an unspecified number of IRS employees wrongly applying for the credit.
I believe you mean Organ Grinder. The monkey is fed the organs of the wayward circus clowns that the serial killer Organ Grinder killed. Tastes funny to the monkey.
See? Oh, 10 years ago this street was hardware stores, auto repair, antique/book stores, tattoo parlors, and a few places to eat. LA MEW built it to what it is now...
nearly 20,000 returns for people who may not have actually purchased homes; thousands for people who already owned homes; 3,200 taxpayers who could not prove they were in the country legally; and an unspecified number of IRS employees wrongly applying for the credit.
All sheer speculation and moralistic media and covert .gov outrage-mongering.
The effect will be to terrify people who can legitimately claim the credit into not claiming it, and to unlawfully and shamefully delay payment to those who do claim it by stamping a big fat "HOLD: potentially fraudulent" sticker on the file.
Bought a house? Don't forget to claim your credit ... and hire a tax attorney, cause your ass is getting audited!
All part of the conspiratorial efforts by our .gov to announce program after program while avoiding ever actually cutting a check.
Last time we talked about it, I think I said something like see, eg, HAMP, SCHIP, unemployment bennies, food stamps, etc. etc. etc.
"Sorry, ma'am, your child doesn't qualify for the health care program. You lived in a different county for two months out of the last fiscal year, and you made over $150 last month selling your plasma."
Still a ton of stuff going up in Seattle.
I am still amazed.
Two block-sized areas in downtown Kirkland are now fenced and under construction and the local mall is completely gutted and under renovation. In downtown Seattle around Lake Union, Paul Allen has multiple office/restaurant buildings under construction, the entire area is torn up and many new buildings are open now.
stunning, really, as you drive by the homeless people on every block.
"Calculated Risk"? More like Calculated Buzz Kill.
Nemo, I thought this was a pretty optimistic post!
best wishes
I'll drink to that!
Really? I thought it was rather downbeat. If your posts were muffins then this would be a high
fiber bran post.
I'm demanding a 5% rent break for bullet holes.
The report suggests the first sector to recover will be apartments as "people who were forced to move back in with their parents seek their own places as soon as they find jobs".
And maybe nursing homes as people who were forced to move back in with their kids?
(EDIT: oops, phone rang and I hit "save" instead of "discard" as I left the computer. message repaired.)
Will the real leader please stand up. Michael Moore? Marcy Kapture? Ralph Nader?
There are ten million Americans waiting for someone to give us a date to march on Washington.
We need publicly funded campaigns. no more Pay to Play. Insist that your congressman support HR1826 and Senate bill S752; the Fair Elections Now Act.
I’M MAD AS HELL AND I’M NOT GONNA TAKE IT ANYMORE!
Will the real leader please stand up!!!
HomeGnome, where is the most overbuilt CRE in cola? is it the harbison retail industrial complex?
Got swined.
CaptainMorgan,
We all know the pirating business is booming. When looking for a scallywag to join your crew, what credentials and skill sets do you want? Moreover, how do I get you my resume? As you will see, I have a history of pillaging, sword fighting, and scoundelry, so I believe I could be an asset to your ship.
Those family "boarders" may stay put longer this time around, plus out-migration is now a factor, too.
Driving through Westwood Village (West LA near UCLA and Wilshire) last night I was shocked at the extent of storefront devastation. It made a nice bookend to my past decade of wondering how those places ever made rent nevermind payroll.
G. L. Monahan wrote:
Too late. This needed to be addressed 30 years ago. We're just watching the Great Democracy Experiment Post Game Show. Democracy lost in a thriller.
Good for employment, bad for blogs.
Dunno, Basel.
But the HorribleSun area sounds about right.
But, alas, Total Wine is there so I must go from time to time.
Optimistic or no, it is excellent analysis, the best out there.
Here, here!
I'll drink to that!
(I don't want noob feeling all alone...)
Abysmal is the right adjective for most economic thinks today.
,rads y apparatchicks,
Happy dooming...
I hear the wilderness calling my name and I must go~
Quick update for those interested: Unconfirmed reports of 2 dead in the Orlando shooting. The shooter was a former employee as a transportation engineer laid off 2 years ago for 'performance issues'. Last I heard, he still hasn't been found.
I figured you had indoor plumbing on the doomstead.
Oh well.
CR said to nemo
"Nemo, I thought this was a pretty optimistic post!"
it is...what you are sayin is
after the four drillings and fillings
the two extractions
the root canal
and finally deep cleaning with those long metal probes of the roots,
and then the polishing with that glodfull awful fluoride chemical
we will be and feel all better
see a positive story
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Armed semi-psychotic self-delusional duplicitous humans running around in public. Gee, what could go wrong?
"The report suggests the first sector to recover will be apartments as "people who were forced to move back in with their parents seek their own places as soon as they find jobs".
After they find a job? Uhoh gonna be a loooong time to recovery then.
Unless we get that snap-back hiring that last happened during the 80s.
Oh wait we're a service based economy now not production based and the last 2 recessions proved the jobs don't come back.
Hmm, jobless recovery and the first sector to recover will be apartments as soon as people find jobs.
The excess inventory of homes built during the boom will require about a 12 year period of sustained "underbuilding" to get supply and demand back to equilibrium. However, bulldozing would accelate the period.
There are ten million Americans waiting for someone to give us a date to march on Washington.
Senator M. Bachmann called for a march on Washington. Does that work for ya?
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 11/6/2009 - 2:18 pm
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
The shooter was a former employee as a transportation engineer laid off 2 years ago for 'performance issues'.
Armed semi-psychotic self-delusional duplicitous humans running around in public. Gee, what could go wrong?
At least they weren't in finance.
Why do they need apartments when they can stay home and pay market rate rent?
I was living in Atlanta when that day-trader went postal.
Elvis wrote:
I assume there's a heavy layer of snark in this assertion.
.
.
.
HomeGnome wrote:
Yeah, I'm going to go walk around outside for a bit. I'm not buzzed, it's just made me very sleepy.
Why do they need apartments when the landscape will be littered with spacious, abandoned luxury homes. "Let's see. Section 8 housing or that mansion? I'll take the mansion."
CR-
"unavoidable bloodbath" is optimistic?
Nanoo-Nanoo (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 11/6/2009 - 2:20 pm
I was living in Atlanta when that day-trader went postal.
That's what I had in the back of my mind, actually, when I first heard the news.
HomeGnome wrote:
Market = optimism (+3% annual increase) + (self-delusion - doom) + squid duplicity. Doom is winning today. Squid must be tired (zero).
barfly wrote:
No, she's a nutjob (and, a Representative, not a Senator.) Fox News et. al. are the mouthpiece of the modern day Father Coughlins.
I refuse to associate my fact-based grievences with people who want to make the birthplace of the President a "point of view."
I'm telling you people. In the next presidential election, "bulldozing" will be the key campaign buzzword for the eventual victor.
poic wrote:
I'm seeing snap back hiring.
Of course you all don't live in Asia
We have development based upon favorable demographics here. It's quite a novelty.
From Agora's 5 Minute Forecast:
“Help-wanted advertising is contracting,” reports John Williams of Shadowstats, with one of his preferred employment metrics. “The Conference Board’s newspaper help-wanted advertising index for September (a leading indicator to October’s employment report) fell to a new record low of 9, from the prior low of 10 that had held for the preceding four months. This new 58-year low is a very negative signal for background employment conditions.
HomeGnome wrote:
You can't look at your happitimes trading screen and not see natgas -10% in three days and not know what is coming even if you can never know when it is coming to the stuff you trade.
Elvis wrote:
Both candidates in the next election will be receiving significant campaign contributions from the financial sector. Bulldozing would force ever financial institution with an affected CRE or RE loan to recognize the losses on their financial statements. This would render them instantly insolvent.
There isn't a chance in hell any candidate will make this a pillar of their campaign platform.
FBI roundup: Nov. 5
Federal Bureau of Investigation - The Atlanta Division: Department of Justice Press Release
Federal Bureau of Investigation - The Atlanta Division: Department of Justice Press Release
Federal Bureau of Investigation - The Jacksonville Division: Department of Justice Press Release
Federal Bureau of Investigation - The Chicago Division: Department of Justice Press Release
these folks certainly have gloomy times ahead ~
so just bulldoze properties owned by the FHA, GSEs, and the FRB.
It just keeps getting better and better:"
Sunoco announces pension freeze, end to post-retirement medical benefits, 3Q loss
Sunoco announces pension freeze, end to post-retirement medical benefits, 3Q loss - Philadelphia Business Journal:
Spunkmeyer wrote:
I'd love for someone to fly me to Kenya for the point of view. I hear it's beautiful there.
Yes. It could be worse. This could be a leading sector ...
best wishes
noob,
The gov't pays for the foreclosures then bulldozes them. The banks get their money. Good times. Perhaps this is why you won's be our next president.
I predict a glut of nice granite being sold on e-bay already cut to fit kitchen counter-tops along with great deals on chandeliers.
Basel Too (profile) wrote on Fri, 11/6/2009 - 3:28 pm replyIgnore userso just bulldoze properties owned by the FHA, GSEs, and the FRB.
Now you're talking...
Basel Too wrote:
Let's just shorten that to "bulldoze the FHA, GSEs, and the FRB".
pigged
I was recently exposed to a novel idea + EARTH - TOO BIG TO FAIL
It was based on the idea that we could come up with a trillion dollars to save the the too big to fail banks. But when it comes to GHG we talk about the economic impact. I don't think there is any doubt that the banksters have caused a greater decline in GDP than sensible GHG regulation will. There is also no doubt that the science supporting the premise that the big banks were too big to fail is a lot weaker than the science behind climate change. Plus the consequences of climate change are more severe and enduring than the consequences of too big to fail banks.
(and, a Representative, not a Senator.)
you're right. My bad.
Elvis wrote:
jobs jobs jobs. Noob is one of them Canadian socialists tho, that disqualifies him automatically.
If Incomes are Down, Where is the Economic Spending coming from? Industrial Production Still Lower, Credit Contraction, and Average Work Week at Record Low. Wells Fargo Considering Converting Option ARMs to Interest Only Loans.
If Incomes are Down, Where is the Economic Spending coming from? Industrial Production Still Lower, Credit Contraction, and Average Work Week at Record Low. Wells Fargo Considering Converting Option ARMs to Interest Only Loans.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
You know what I'm going to say don't you? :darkhelmet:
It's ok to punt on 3rd down, you know.
Market's up because Wall Street threw out a bunch of upgrades today. Who cares about double digit unemployment when Wall Street thinks this is a favorable entry point for GE?
Elvis wrote:
I'm pretty sure it's because I wasn't born in, nor do I have citizenship in, the United States of America.
Bank of America announced they are exiting FFELP as of December 5th
This is the end of government student lending. Big guys are getting out. Should be interesting for next school year. The private loans CAN be defaulted on. I know what I'd be doing if I were a student.
REITs are down, in the past 2 weeks has been a traders paradise.
When the team is punting on first down, you know you are bad.
Uhh, won't that be most of them? (Residential, at least.)
linkie please?
"I'm pretty sure it's because I wasn't born in, nor do I have citizenship in, the United States of America."
Convienent excuse.
Despite (or perhaps because of) the fact that the NYTimes is upset about this, it might actually be a
goodbye-to-reforms-of-2002: Personal Finance News from Yahoo! Finance
As I noted yesterday, I talked this week to a senior commercial loan officer of a regional (based in virginia) and he was seeing leases reworked with 20% reduction in rent.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
This was from a corporate e-mail. I'll see if I can find something offical. (Not the I don't true MY own zombie, of course).
Maybe the Buffalo Bills could try this.
Go Saints!
"he was seeing leases reworked with 20% reduction in rent."
Tip of the iceberg...
no worries, it will probably come out later (one would hope).
Bob Dobbs,
I just saw this on WaPo ... reading through it now... re our earlier thread...
Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry - Newt Gingrich: States' experience should guide health reform - washingtonpost.com
An interesting take on the employment report by MaxedOutMama:
Now I believe the household survey, because last quarter's FUT basically bore it out. Further, the best fit between WIET and household is for some government hiring, because the MoM losses slowed, and on average government jobs pay much better than private industry.
Now I have been pretty much ignoring the establishment survey, because once its index of weekly earnings started to diverge strongly from WIET receipts, I figured it had become too unreliable for use. Nominal is nominal, and when establishment shows average private weekly earnings going up, but nominal FICA tax receipts are going down, I gave up on that data.
MaxedOutMama
two of my tenants got october and november "free" as part of a 60 month renewal. other than the free rent, no other reductions or concessions...
Time to go knock over a gas station for lunch money.
I assume from this post that SRS will now skyrocket.
To 11.
Over the next six months.
Elvis wrote:
My last year of college we couldn't find a punter who could consistently kick the ball past the line of scrimmage--or maybe more to the point we had trouble finding a long snapper who could get the ball to the punter before the rush got there.
When the team has to go for it on fourth and 20 from their own 2, you know you are bad.
,rad HG,
It takes quite a lot to rankle the feathers of a LSBF, but that left a mark.
It's been a season of come from ahead losses, with a few wins, somehow.
Checking in from RE land in metrowest Boston. Slow to dead. Wellesley actually had an OK October, but other towns not so much. It's tough out there; sellers are pulling their hair out from what I hear.
Too bad there are 5 families with average head of household age at 55 for every 3 families with head of household aged 30.
Some day this war is going to end...
Only if there's a 10:1 reverse split.
Juvenal,
razzing you about the bills takes away some of the pain of being a Cleveland Indians fan...
"My last year of college we couldn't find a punter who could consistently kick the ball past the line of scrimmage"
Maybe you should have just tried to kick field goals.
" I assume from this post that SRS will now skyrocket.
To 11.
Over the next six months. "
I'll always knew my SRS would double at some point. I just didn't factor in being down 80% before the double
Only if there's a 10:1 reverse split.
Why do you hate my trading account so much?
I laugh, because you're probably right.
Jesse brings up a great point here
Jesse's Café Américain
??????????????????????????
???????????????????????????
Only down 80%? You bought low.
Eric is laughing instead of weeping.
WTF!?!
Whenever I meet somebody with the initials SRS, I kick them. And then I kick their kids. Bastards.
Yalt wrote:
Or that new GSE, Commie May (from a few days ago).
Basel Too wrote:
Destroying the property linked to an MBS would result in a destruction of the value of the MBS, which would hit financial institutions that hold them, right? Even though the GSE owns them, it's packaged and sold (or was packaged and sold) to Wall Street, which would mean that unless the government fronted the value of the property, it would have to be realized on the value of the MBS.
And if the government was going to spend billions on buying up junky homes to destroy them, how do you think that's going to play on the news? Can you not hear most homeowners saying "why isn't the government just giving me the money, instead of paying off the bank for that crappy house?"
well the LA attny general finally decided to raid the ACORN HQ's......
If they had anything negative in their posession and hadnt removed it by now with all the threats, shame on them...
HomeGnome wrote:
Not a Browns fan? Good idea.
Go Saints!
thanks for correcting me! I have been wrong in saying that more than once. I had assumed the unemployment rates used a blend of the CPS and CES data
Orlando shooter is in custody.
We've actually been hunting for a ~1k sq ft space in that area. (90024/64) Lot's of space for lease, but LL's aren't lowering rates. You know, 'cuz it's different here in LA!
We can wait... In other news, there are about 3 or4 new restaurants (adding to the 900 or so that are already here) scheduled to open on W 3rd street. No recession here. 
G. L. Monahan wrote:
Howard Beale/M&M callabo?
noob goldberg at 1228
"I'd love for someone to fly me to Kenya for the point of view. I hear it's beautiful there."
hey, on your way could you
stop by honolulu on the way and check out the two birth announcements that hit the papers in august of 1961
HomeGnome wrote:
Alive? How unusual.
Very few people ever site TrimTabs, which uses FICA and Withholding taxes to estimate employment. They've been tracking closer to the household survey (-286K) this month. It's hard to say who is right, since your biases will push you to the number that best suits your pre-disposition towards the economy.
Blackhalo wrote:
2-2, including the Ft. Hood shootings.
"..you not hear most homeowners saying "why isn't the government just giving me the money, instead of paying off the bank for that crappy house?"
No. They would scream (in a tortured, mournful way) "That crappy house needs to die! It caused me so much heartache! Good riddance, you home from hell!"
mock turtle wrote:
Why would I stop in Honolulu on the way to Keyna? It's like in the completely wrong direction...
THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST » » ASSET REFLATION TAKES OVER THE RECOVERY TRADE
Didn't have anybody who could kick a 115-yard field goal, either.
I mis-remembered, though--it was freshman year. I just looked up the results on the school's website to see if it was as bad as I thought it was. We lost games by 55-0, 56-0. 55-0, 35-0, 28-0 and 42-0.
Which was a good year. One of our coaches had a career record of 1-48.
JBR wrote:
We've given up on the West Side. Preparing to move elsewhere.
I'm serious--if you hold SRS for six months you're going to get killed even if the underlying stocks collapse.
Latest Observations:
Date 2009-06 2009-07 2009-08 2009-09 2009-10
Value 751.364 732.996 765.857 860.073 994.734
St. Louis Fed: Series: EXCRESNS, Excess Reserves of Depository Institutions
Yalt wrote:
Which is why Vassar shouldn't have played football when it was an all girls school.
JBR wrote:
Same in the college town I live in near Sacramento.
People have to eat. You cannot lose money owning a restaurant.
Vassar went coed? You mean those are guys?
One ping only.
"I'm serious--if you hold SRS for six months you're going to get killed even if the underlying stocks collapse. "
Only true during the great reflation/manipulation phase.
When there was less government interference and collusion back a year ago I successfully held SRS for multi-month periods.
Funny how that doesn't work when save real-estate values at all costs is the mantra and REITS are allowed to count stock dispersal as dividends and selectively prevent buy-in on new stock floats.
The Captain is fighting the Americans.
Elvis wrote:
LOL
Elvis wrote:
No, it's why they should have played us.
I just found an old article in Time that'll give an idea of what it looked like from the other side. Funny stuff.
A Quaker Beating - TIME
Yalt wrote:
Why is that?
(disclaimer: I don't have any)
Was this your brown shorts phase, poic?
if you hold SRS for six months you're going to get killed
Yeah, yeah..... I know all about the decay and the tracking and the games.
it's 2% of the capital in my trading account. It's an option which never expires.
I'm not losing much sleep over it.
Elvis wrote:
thanks for the warning
Noob
touche!
Price decay due to volatility. 2% up and down alternating over 10 days leaves you down 2%. It's worse the higher the vol, and the vol is higher due to the leverage.
"Was this your brown shorts phase, poic?"
Lol yes!!
I wouldn't even afford to wash them. Just stand them up in the corner each evening. Had to cut back on water and detergent at that time due to the hardship fed.gov was imposing on me.
On the bright side atleast I don't have to worry about those pesky capital gain taxes I was looking at from the previous six months.
My brokerage account turned into a poor mans delta neutral fund.
OT,
How To Tell If Your ETF Is About To Close - Features
Maria B shouts for more batteries STAT!
HomeGnome (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 11/6/2009 - 3:52 pm replyIgnore user One ping only.
excellent... you know my grandfather used to take me fishing on a river much like this one..... 0 or better " hmm, realistically i give our chances ......one in three."
Right now I am eating a stuff Cornish game hen with a light gravy, new potatoes, and a vegetable medley. Tasty. Still shocked I can get that here in Tahiti.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Yup. The pre-market action has not been healthy. [keeping fingers crossed]
Elvis wrote:
That's squab that is cut to look like a small chicken.
That's weird Elvis.
I always took you as a "Sizzler" type.
JBR:
They just opened an upscale bistro in a low rent strip mall by my house. There it is, nestled between a Chinese take-out place and a drycleaners. The triumph of optimism over common sense.
"That's weird Elvis.
I always took you as a "Sizzler" type. "
When I mentioned Elvis at Starbucks this morning the barrista said "All fizzle no sizzle".
Nuke wrote:
Who is funding all these restaurants tho?
Did they mention the restraining order as well?
To Maria B. with best wishes.
Nighstand Cowboy Up
sm_ll wrote:
Sadly, the clients we serve are afraid to leave the confines of the westside. Terrified of all those poor people west of, oh... Beverly Glen.
So we wait... where you looking to move to?
Probably a feathered rat. Still good. Plus, Sizzler does not operate here in Tahiti.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
I always thought they called that "quail".
poic wrote:
I always wondered about that. "Barista." Why? "Monkey Grinder" was already taken?
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Outstanding consumer debt fell at a 7.2% annual rate in September, the eighth consecutive decline, the Federal Reserve reported Friday. Consumer credit fell by $14.8 billion to $2.46 trillion in September, down 4.7% compared with a year ago. Outstanding credit can fall if consumers pay off balances, or if lenders write off bad loans. The decline in September was led by another huge drop in revolving debt, such as credit cards, which fell $9.9 billion to $889 billion, or a 13.3% annual rate. Nonrevolving debt -- such as auto loans, student loans and other personal loans -- fell $4.9 billion to $1.57 trillion, or a 3.7% annual rate.
Business & Technology | Seattle loses ground as top site for commercial real-estate investors | Seattle Times Newspaper
"Heading into 2009, metropolitan Seattle was rated No. 1 for commercial and multifamily-housing investment among the nation's top 50 markets in the annual forecast prepared by the Urban Land Institute, a growth think tank, and the accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers."
"The report's thumbnail forecast for Seattle says the recession and bank troubles will "harpoon" the local market next year."
Cue photo of 9 story empty office building.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Why is everything about bestiality with you?
You need help, dude.
The fed is about 75% of the way through their announced $1.45 trillion mortgage purchase sham. At a 4.5% interest rate, the Fed will be collecting ~ $65 billion in interest payments that used to flow to banks and investors. That's a LOT of $$$$$.
Here's the worst of it. After the losses are out of the system, the Fed will hand that gravy train back over to Wall St.
I'm of the opinion, we don't need Wall St. ever again in the mortgage market. Let the GSE's and the fed handle it, but with iron clad lending rules - 20% down and 36% DTI max.
I we are taking the risk of the losses, let's keep the future gains too. Force banks and Wall St. to find productive endeavors to deploy capital. Inflating property is negative value added.
14.8 billion means were even on fannie request for 15 billion more...
4-Year-Old Got First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit, Panel Told -- Politics Daily
nearly 20,000 returns for people who may not have actually purchased homes; thousands for people who already owned homes; 3,200 taxpayers who could not prove they were in the country legally; and an unspecified number of IRS employees wrongly applying for the credit.
I believe you mean Organ Grinder. The monkey is fed the organs of the wayward circus clowns that the serial killer Organ Grinder killed. Tastes funny to the monkey.
Angry Saver wrote:
What, you mean actually work for their money? What are you, some kind of socialist?
Me and the Pig are on the same page this afternoon.
Beer Me!
JBR;
About 50 miles west by northwest.
market is defying gravity again..I smell sell off coming....
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Isn't
supposed to move with the other commodities? The ones all getting hammered the past few days?
It seems off on its own lately.
True. However, the area where these are opening is special!
West Third Street Business Association - Home
See? Oh, 10 years ago this street was hardware stores, auto repair, antique/book stores, tattoo parlors, and a few places to eat. LA MEW built it to what it is now...
I'm still wondering who is lending money to restaurants? Wouldn't you generally need a business loan to open up a restaurant?
Isn't
supposed to move with the other commodities?
Not really. Gold's monetary aspect makes it not a commodity.
sm_landlord wrote:
Fair enough. This link is strong enough to withstand the general group trend, usually?
All sheer speculation and moralistic media and covert .gov outrage-mongering.
The effect will be to terrify people who can legitimately claim the credit into not claiming it, and to unlawfully and shamefully delay payment to those who do claim it by stamping a big fat "HOLD: potentially fraudulent" sticker on the file.
Bought a house? Don't forget to claim your credit ... and hire a tax attorney, cause your ass is getting audited!
All part of the conspiratorial efforts by our .gov to announce program after program while avoiding ever actually cutting a check.
Last time we talked about it, I think I said something like see, eg, HAMP, SCHIP, unemployment bennies, food stamps, etc. etc. etc.
"Sorry, ma'am, your child doesn't qualify for the health care program. You lived in a different county for two months out of the last fiscal year, and you made over $150 last month selling your plasma."
Don't need student loans if you don't got jobs.
broward wrote:
People keep apply tho. So far this year, private student loans are up. Might be the last lending bubble out here.
Basel Too wrote:
60 month renewal?
that's not a rental, that's a mortgage.
Dude.
See, money to the people is inflationary. In the "bad" way. Can't have that.
Money to banks is fuel for the economic lift-off!
Prosperity, Ho!
Still a ton of stuff going up in Seattle.
I am still amazed.
Two block-sized areas in downtown Kirkland are now fenced and under construction and the local mall is completely gutted and under renovation. In downtown Seattle around Lake Union, Paul Allen has multiple office/restaurant buildings under construction, the entire area is torn up and many new buildings are open now.
stunning, really, as you drive by the homeless people on every block.