if I remember correctly I think there was only one extension to UE benefits back in the early 1980s,
... does anyone have a different recollection of it?
so, with this extension it adds up to 18 months total ???
Went to the dentist today here in Silicon Valley. In talking with my dental hygenist I discovered that she bought a home in South San Jose in 2005 with her now-fiance. She must be about mid-to-late 20's.
They purchasaed right at the peak in her neighborhood. She says its lost 50% of its value. Bought with no money down. They've been making Interest Only payments.
I asked if they've thought about walking away. She responded that she's worried about the hit to her credit, and they're kind of attached because they did a bunch of remodeling.
Folks around them have walked away. Her friend, a RE agent has suggested she walk away (and presumably buy another home through him!).
I think that's the first poster-child for the housing bubble that I've met in person.
Government Stimulus Recipients frequent the parks and alleys that I do. They always are looking to trade their stamps for my services. Of course, I say no unless they are physically attractive, have brushed their teeth in the last three days, and don't have visible bumps on their privates. OK, sometimes I even say yes to those people who have bumps. Times are tough...
Meanwhile, the Democratic base, so energized last year, has lost much of its passion, at least partly because the administration’s soft-touch approach to Wall Street has seemed to many like a betrayal of their ideals.
As I see it , the UE rate will be ~= 10% thru 2010. Krugman is right, there is little O can do now to alter that course. He should have temporarily nationalized BAC and Citi and jump start lending!
The ate O's lunch!
thanks...
I forgot which party was in power in the early 80s {Reagan, a man blessed by good luck and thought myopically everyone else
had the same shot... at least Nixon knew first hand what the underbelly of American failure looked like - his dad}
and even the recession of the early 90s.
Underwater is like genital wrts. You are afflicted but it is the fault of that $40 transgender hooker who seduced you in Rio. Damn transgenders. Like the FBI and Delorean.
How with this hygienist feel 1-2-3 years from now with the home's value still 50% +/- underwater? And of course, that IO loan will reset sometime, and unless the economic situation is unchanged the mortgage interest rate is going to be somewhat higher than it is now.
He should have temporarily nationalized BAC and Citi and jump start lending!
the problem is the lack of credit-worthy borrowers (relative to 2006), at least for non-governmental lenders. the two credit sectors that are booming, FHA and student loans, have almost zero credit standards. next up is the return of subprime/leasing automobiles.
Hi MP. I clicked the rollover movie link you posted earlier. I will have to see all of it. Looked it up on imdb and one of the blurbs made me giggle. "if you like conspiracy and finance you will like this move and if you dont you wont" or something close to that.
I could tell she's considering walking away from the house. I bet she will as soon as they have to start paying off the principal, not just interest. For now, it might not be that much more than renting! Why move? I should have asked her that, being as nosy as I am...
Basel Too (profile) wrote on Thu, 11/5/2009 - 11:12 pm
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He should have temporarily nationalized BAC and Citi and jump start lending!
the problem is the lack of credit-worthy borrowers (relative to 2006), at least for non-governmental lenders. the two credit sectors that are booming, FHA and student loans, have almost zero credit standards. next up is the return of subprime/leasing automobiles.
I think jobs are created manly by small Business, and from what I gather from my banking buddies, lending to them have dried up immensely.
Well for what it's worth I've voted for 9.9, basically because I think TPTB will really be applying the fudge factors this time around. They must be desperate to keep it under 10 and avoid upsetting the first part of the shopping season.
I know 0.1% is statistically meaningless, but psychologically there's a HUGE difference between 9.9% and 10%.
Krugman writes in NY Times:
The fateful decision, early this year, to go for economic half-measures may haunt Democrats for years to come."
...
or better said by Napoleon, "if you're going to take Vienna, take Vienna, don't do it half-way."
at least Nixon knew first hand what the underbelly of American failure looked like - his dad
In '62, when Nixon was running for governor in California, his wife made a campaign appearance in Richmond, CA at the civic auditorium, which had a capacity of at least 1,000.
Anyway, only about half-a-dozen people showed up. I was one of them.
Pat was supposed to make a speech, but didn't. She came off the stage and asked everyone to sit together in the front row, which we did. She talked with us about anything and everything of interest to us. It was a real learning experience for me, but I know it upset her a great deal.
As you know, her husband was beaten badly in that one.
It is easy to fault decision makers now, Paul. But the book was written before they took office. All-in or do-nothing would ultimately have the same result. Failure.
Elvis (profile) wrote on Thu, 11/5/2009 - 11:19 pm
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It is easy to fault decision makers now, Paul. But the book was written before they took office. All-in or do-nothing would ultimately have the same result. Failure
That is true. It is also true that great opportunities are possible only with great problems. I am pretty sure, O had the mandate for trying course changing policies. Republican shenanigans aside.
Does anyone really think politics will let the number get above 10% any time soon?
BTW, really enjoyed the video from the last post, I think I'll be sending that to some friends.
(Un)Government Stimulus Recipient numbers are so unreliable it is proposterous. Like telling a man with an empty 40 gallon tank in his pick-up that 3 gallons is half full. He might believe it until he runs out of gas 30 miles down the road. Then he is angry and wielding a tire iron.
Vague and indiscreminate money throwing is a sign of a "Oh, Fu&k!" moment. Like the car falling off a cliff so he turns on the windshield wipers and honks the horn.
I don't know if that's really what he thinks or if that's what he says because he has to defend the administration. I have a feeling if Bush were still president and throwing all this money around, Krugman would be sounding like Mish. Unfortunately, he's the celebrity left wing economist so all he can really do is offer some mild criticism. It's obvious he reads CR and agrees with most of the stuff CR posts. He has to know this whole recovery is an expensive government sham. I just don't think he's willing to say it out loud right now because it would be seen as attacking Obama.
The thing that really gets me about PK is his whole Cheney "Deficits Don't Matter" thing. He truly believes that (a) everything can be fixed with monetization and (b) there will be no negative consequences whatsoever.
No no no Merchants of fear when Congress votes against 100 to one dissenteing constituents they get to feel like competent, learned STATESMEN guiding the poor misguided lower levels of people through the bad times cuz they know better and have the strength to rise above mob rule!!*
Please note the very thick and intense sarcasm and snark I meant to convey
when Congress votes against 100 to one dissenting constituents they get to feel like competent, learned STATESMEN guiding the poor misguided lower levels of people
I'll give them this though: They thought it would work.
I'll bet not one of them imagined throwing that much money at the problem wouldn't have solved it.
My guess is they were petrified of systematic colllapse. It was a closed session, wasn't it? Inside fear mongering (and maybe rightly so), won out. The problem is they should have reconsidered after they pissed themselves that day.
Now, if someone wanted to analyze Goldman's motives, they might start by looking at Rubin's history. It's interesting that, while good 'ole Bob was helping Hillary with her finances that his son was helping arrange Obama's.
"Noob,
When citizens write letters 100-to1 against something and Congress goes forward anyway...there's no excuse...
The sequence of events was actually:
100-1 against tarp.
Vote fails.
Market falls 600 odd points
90-10 for tarp (calls and letters literally switched right after the first vote and subsequent market collapse)
Vote passes
Market jumps a few hundred.
J6P breathes a sigh of relief
Market spends the next week following 700 points.
As soon as the market fell and people starting screaming for tarp to be passed I knew the battle was lost.
cuz they know better and have the strength to rise above mob rule!!*
I'm sure the desire to postpone the reckoning for the mess that they helped make, the upcoming election, and banksters promising to cut checks, did not hurt either.
UE rate will be ~= 10% thru 2010. Krugman is right, there is little O can do now to alter that course.
Well I suspect if/when we break double digits, that the pork will begin to fly. Stimpack II at a minimum. TARP voters I would think would be an easy target for any competent primary or general adversary.
To hear the software people talk about it, business intelligence was invented in 1981, but it has been around as long as long as there have been businesses.
One of the best examples of a business intelligence organization has been around almost two centuries.
Reuters.
It's all about what they call "information asymmetry" now. Reuter understood that a long, long time ago.
Humint. Thank you MP for looking. I appreciate it. I do understand though. I was being silly about walt disney and the its a small world comment. From what I understand the business community doesnt set foot into and out of foreeign countries without getting chatted up over a drink at least or a more formal debrief for the biggies. I heard that travel to russia was treated like that, and now china. India too I imagine. Sometimes the business person doesnt even know.
The theing about intel which you obviously know is that n0o matter what tech there is, no matter what signals generated, no matter what raw information is gathered without the right people with the right smarts and the right abilities to make rapid and correct connections and get the info to the people who need it most, it is all worthless. Humint makes the intel wheel turn.
no matter what raw information is gathered without the right people with the right smarts and the right abilities to make rapid and correct connections and get the info to the people who need it most, it is all worthless.
Back in the early 80s we had a nice executive exchange with Japanese counterparts. Their execs were industrial and process engineers and metalurgists. They wore shoes with soft heels that picked up in process alloys and heat treatments as they toured the floor feigning limited English. They sure learned a lot. Actually they didn't as we seeded the chips on the floor with misleading material but the point about information gathering and asymmetries should be clear.
no matter what raw information is gathered without the right people with the right smarts and the right abilities to make rapid and correct connections and get the info to the people who need it most, it is all worthless.
Or you can just guess correctly ahead of the data for 64 winning days out of 65.
Story about Walt Disney. My buddy went to Carnegie Tech where he met a guy who claimed his father roomed with Walt in college. In his father's senior year, Walt begged his father to go to California with him and help him build an amusement park. He didn't go. The rest is history.
Was at Disneyland yesterday. Fun, short lines, etc. Went to the ASIMO demo. Honda in 1950 made motors for bicycles. Today FCX and Hondajet and a robot that can actually run. GM? They have GMAC and an iPod jack in their Buicks.
. . . except that she never said it. What is particularly interesting to me is that two-hundred-odd years on, a lie circulated by her enemies is still believed and repeated. It was, as we know, tremendously effective then. It sways public opinion regarding a long-dead woman today.
A lie is a very powerful thing. This one is so good it still makes people furious.
Wow, my ad is get $250 in groceries free. Hoocoodanode? Busy day today. I enjoyed reading Yves report about Goldman getting vaccine and the subsequent comments this morning.
I'll be anxious to read about the UE numbers and how they will get massaged into something resembling a while in fact, the yoy ue is stunning.
I'm pretty upset and disturbed over the Ft. Hood shootings too. I think we'll see more of this sort of thing across the nation. Desperate people will do desperate things. Human nature is violent when people feel threatened, broadly I think people have been conditioned to believe it is their neighbor who is their enemy, rather than a realize the government was hijacked by big money interests who are now the ruling class. Their calculus allowed businesses to take out real benefits, real security in jobs including those who have advanced technical degrees, while sucking up more and more and more of disposable incomes that became smaller and smaller. Greedy, small minded IDIOTS.
Its amazing what people will do when they have little to nothing to lose. We shall see just how much more hate-mongering can divert eyes from where they should be focused.
Admit it CR, you do like Instapundit, and que posts to go up at ungodly hours, just to make us think you never sleep /snark
When Glenn Reynolds aka Instapundit was a second year law professor, he taught me torts, when he was a third year law professor I took some seminar from him and the small class met for beers a few times. He's a very, very bright guy.
good morning
i voted. i figured it would really be 10%(not my vote) but it would have to be revised upward like maybe in jan (isnt it usually 2 months when they figure out what anything really is?)
on my way here i found this,
Blackhalo,
I read Walt's wiki bio after I posted. It coulda' happened, or maybe I recall the story incorrectly. The story may be mostly true, but surely insignificant.
The U.S. unemployment rate could hit the psychologically important 10-percent mark Friday and investors are bracing for bad news from the October figures. On average, analysts expected another drop in nonfarm payrolls last month, with the jobless rate edging up to 9.9 percent.
But how does the U.S. rate stack up against others around the world? It's certainly not as bad as Spain's 18.3 percent, but is more than double Switzerland's 4 percent. Below is a table of the latest official unemployment rates from some of the world's major economies.
Country Unemployment Rate
US 9.8%
UK 7.9%
Euro Zone 9.6%
Japan 5.3%
Brazil 8.1%
New Zealand 6.5%
China 4.3%*
Spain 18.3%
Mexico 6.4%
Germany 7.7%
France 9.8%
Switzerland 4%
Netherlands 3.5%
When Glenn Reynolds aka Instapundit was a second year law professor, he taught me torts, when he was a third year law professor I took some seminar from him and the small class met for beers a few times. He's a very, very bright guy.
Two blogs I read all the time, Instapundit and CR - Glenn admits he has material set to go up at later hours or while he is traveling, to keep the blog fresh
(Reuters) – California Public Employees' Retirement System, knew it was paying uncompetitive rates on foreign-exchange trades as early as 2003, the Wall Street Journal said, citing a consultant who advised the largest U.S. public pension fund.
Last month, California's attorney general sued State Street Corp (STT.N), contending that State Street Bank and Trust overcharged Calpers and the California State Teachers' Retirement System for the costs of executing foreign currency trades since 2001.
State Street has denied any allegations of wrongdoing.
"We were hired in the third quarter of 2003 by Calpers to write a report on FX pricing from their custodians," Neil Record, chief executive of UK fund firm Record Currency Management (RECL.L), told the Journal.
"We submitted that report at the end of 2003 ... and we found uncompetitive pricing," the paper quoted Record as saying.
Record declined to tell the Journal the name of the banks that his firm audited.
Calpers declined to specifically comment to the paper on the issue. Reuters could not immediately reach the pension fund for comment regular U.S. business hours.
(Reporting by Ajay Kamalakaran in Bangalore; Editing by Lisa Von Ahn)
Consider that Obama is continuing the Bush policy of throwing massive amounts of money at Federal government jobs and student loans (to remove productive workers from the UI roles). This alone probably moves the IU numbers down at least 5%.
got a question. why is fanniemae d4l only using gross monthly income,why not net? if the cap on monthly rent is not more than 31%. you got some hidden expenses (fed state taxs fica etc) that you dont think about and also how many you claim on taxes has a bit to do with how much they deduct. your insurance plan has an affect on how much you pay also.
i think this might be trouble, not a true picture of income. sometimes 50 dollars or lack of it really mess you up
ewww, sorry for posting too much. Never fear, I gotta get outta here this morning.
I think this is just the start of what is the real picture and where we are going. CRE is a massive bomb counting down. This also paints the picture of unemployment, no? I don't think you can separate the two.
By Dan Levy
Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. commercial property market is far from recovery and needs job growth, sustained low interest rates and further government support, said GE Capital Real Estate Chief Executive Officer Ronald Pressman.
“We’re a long way from where we’d like to be,” Pressman said at the Urban Land Institute’s annual meeting in San Francisco yesterday. “The stakes are very big here.”
Defaults and late payments on property loans sold as commercial mortgage-backed securities jumped more than fivefold to 4.52 percent of the total in the third quarter from a year earlier, New York-based real estate researcher Reis Inc. said. About $26.6 billion of CMBS loans were 60 days or more past due.
Commercial real estate won’t stop falling for 18 to 24 months after the economy bottoms out, as the full effect of the recession hits landlords, Pressman said in an interview at the San Francisco event. The unemployment rate needs to drop to 5 percent to 6 percent before the property market rebounds, according to his presentation. Joblessness rose to 9.8 percent in September, the highest since 1983.
About $22 billion worth of transactions will be completed this year, or 5 percent of the 2007 market peak, Roy March, CEO of commercial brokerage Eastdil Secured, said at the same event. Deals are down 74 percent from 2008 for offices, 72 percent for apartment buildings and 60 percent for retail properties, he said.
Stores, apartment buildings and warehouses in the U.S. will set vacancy records before a recovery takes hold, according to a forecast by CB Richard Ellis Group Inc. Office vacancies will fall just short of the record set in 1991, it said.
Real estate was GE Capital’s only unit to record a third- quarter loss as the company scaled back lending and transactions.
“We think we’re early in the game as far as real estate markets reaching stability,” Pressman said.
The government’s Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility program, or TALF, has been a “strong, but not really effective” effort to jumpstart credit markets, Pressman said. The $787 billion stimulus package has helped create jobs.
ULI, based in Washington, is a global real estate organization with almost 34,000 members including heads of property firms, developers, bankers, architects, city planners and researchers.
Investment Question: Purchase of Gold at 1090 area.
Does anyone think that gold, now at its altime high, flat now for 48 hours, is a great buy here? Is it possible that this time it's different, that J6Pak just needs to look up from the latest schports entertainment and call his/her broker to go get into a gold fund, and they'll make money?
This moment is just like the moment right before the subprime collapse when every dumbass was positive that they too can make some of that money, too, as after all, they just needed to hold the house for just a little while, maybe a year, and they'd make hundreds of percent on their investment.
IMO, this market behavior is The Lure. The shorts are dead and liquidating. As soon as that's done, and the ignorant newbies are in, this market will drop 50 bucks in an hour or two. And as long as I'm not seeing the market opportunities, on a short term basis (as gold is going to The Great Doubling and then 3,4,5,6 and who knows after that), it won't matter what happens as to me there is risk, and nobody in their right mind assumes risk.
slumdog
come into my palor said the spider to the fly thats what the market is saying and dont think the fly is going to get tea and crumpets.hehehe
sorry parlor instead of palor. parlor
When the direction in a market is not clear to me, I step aside. The money that is made is what I call God's Money. I don't understand what's happening at that time; and I'm not a gambler. For me and probably for most people, there are rare windows of understanding, when all the prior study and independent thought result in an "Ah Ha" moment. Then, the risk is low.
Of course one could say there's no such thing as knowing. That's malarky. It's like the weather. Sometimes, you can sense what's next because the set up is the same... big dark clouds, background thunder, dropping barometer. Then, at that one moment, the watcher has a high probability understanding. The rest is "entertainment".
I'm sticking with my commodity plan of barter material and that all important TP since physical publications like Sears Robuck catalogs are mostly digital now and can't serve a second utility..
Shill, I left at 1085+ range. The sure, large move has occurred, 985-1085. Can you say now that the market will probably move from 1090 to 1190? I can't see it without a price adjustment. The breakaway gap of 10 at 1045 is real. And in all the times I've looked, about 5% of the time, those gaps become permanent, as in either 1-3 months before getting filled, or maybe 1% never get filled. Those are gamblers odds. I enter the market to make money, to be sure I can take what I want, because the fear once in a position is for me mind numbing. Long physicals is a comfort and then gold becomes like art on the wall, of no real value. Long market positions, unhedged, again they are what they are, and the goal is much higher; they're insurance. But the trading money is traded when the risk is low. I gotta "see" it before I take the risk. 1100 is not a meaningful move. Most times I've watched the small, easy move, the markets exploded in my positional hands. So, I won't do a thing until I know the newbies are wasted and the shorts have tapped out.
"Jobs! We don't need no stinking Jobs...Obama has our back."
I wish I could blame one man for the loss of jobs and the poor economy. I wish I didn't see an overarching system and decades of decisions that have gutted our manufacturing and bet the farm on an information/service economy dependent on foreign credit to exist. I wish I didn't see a special interest/corrupt/donation system that keeps on serving the short term interest of an election cycle or a need to make those quarterly numbers to feed salaries and bonuses. I wish I didn't see an education system that has failed our children in full view of their parents who can't accurately elucidate their vague feelings of unease that something is wrong but not clear on what.
I wish I had Shill's ease at assessing blame for the systemic failures I perceive all around and could crystallize it to one man's fault. Have a great day all, we create our own reality.
Agreed, but Gold is a buy and hold for me, I consider it a " Real " savings if you will, I play the Miners and Junior miners that is where I make my money. If one needs the cash sure sell your Gold and take the money and run. But I think too many are jumping on the " Cash for Gold " thinking. We have a long awaited upside coming in Metals, the boat has not even left the dock yet.
I wish I had Shill's ease at assessing blame for the systemic failures I perceive all around and could crystallize it to one man's fault. Have a great day all, we create our own reality.
Obama has our back..........where did say I was blaming anyone? Please refrain from putting words in my mouth it's very, Uncouth and Far left like.
It's the truth!
House Votes to Extend Jobless Benefits
No need to rush out and look for a job, just hang around the house, surf the net, check out CR a few times a day.
The House has approved a bill that will extend unemployment benefits for up to another 20 weeks to nearly 2 million people who have lost or are in danger of exhausting unemployment benefits.
There has been no comment from anyone in Congress re the drain in money from the economy that will occur as a result of the money needed to pay the unemployment benefits. None, nothing, Nada.
got a question. why is fanniemae d4l only using gross monthly income,why not net?
If real lending standards where used right now almost all RE sales would come to a complete stop, prices would immediately crater and the foreclosure rate would sky rocket. They are recycling foreclosures to slow the fall. The $8K is just another sucker program to make first time buyers the new generation of debt slaves. Government has become the enemy of the American Dream.
lobbyist ben dover
i plead early in morning,lack of coffee when i wrote that,altho re-re-re default kept popping up in my mind, just another one to join a long line.
thank you
you know we could start scoring their(gov)"efforts" i give this one an 8 to bring in more defaults
I'd imagine the hoi empolloi is worried they'll be sans-jobs soon, and employers know they can pick and choose from lengthy lists of aspiring applicants who are keenly aware of just how few jobs are out there, in the void.
However, IMO O lied when he made these promises.
1] Won't sign a bill with pork.
2] No lobbyists in the administration.
3] Something on the lines of Taxpayers should get a better deal than Warren Buffett.
4] Companies that outsource will be taxed.
5] Something about line by line review of the budget.
6] Tough Bank regulation.
...
I don't care about many other promises that have fallen apart. I see the above as important to me.
Median duration is up to 18.7 weeks - people out of work longer.
Aggregate hours declined - should impact consumer spending. Horrid Christmas retail season.
Black Friday today?
I thought we were just talking about increased employment in manufacturing???
As a reminder, we need to be adding 125K jobs a month to fully employ all those entering the workforce (just to keep the unemployment rate from moving higher).
WASHINGTON – The unemployment rate has surpassed 10 percent for the first time since 1983. Nearly 16 million people can't find jobs and employers cut a net total of 190,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department says.
We better ram through our health care bill before people have time to get @#$%&! about the unemployment numbers and realize the stimulus was a failure.
I'm sleepless with excitement!
Does it include the scenario without the desperate gov't pump everyday?
I'll be up early. Heck, I'm always up early ...
Good night to all
CalculatedRisk wrote:
I didn't think you slept.
Or ate.
Or breathed oxygen.
I'm really tired of the term "employment." Let's call it "Government Stimulus Recepient."
Tomorrow will be a chart-porn extravaganza!!!
Oh, and it'll be BFF to boot! Can we handle the excitement?!?
Elvis wrote:
It's the total Zombie Economy. Banks, homeowners, etc. -- everything's dead but still moving and feeding off the taxpayer.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Well on that happy note, I'm heading to bed.
Speaking of porn, will Maria B unbutton one or two ?
My prediction is that no matter what the numbers show.
UE number
hours worked
ratio of workers
...
Report will be spun positive and market will move up.
She'll nuzzle the nightstand cowboy against her buxom?
if I remember correctly I think there was only one extension to UE benefits back in the early 1980s,
... does anyone have a different recollection of it?
so, with this extension it adds up to 18 months total ???
poic wrote:
Yeah, numbers still deteriorating but at a slower pace.
IMHO the market's already topped, it's just bouncing around a while before it starts its terminal decline.
Duke of Con Dao wrote:
I've read 24.
OT anecdote:
Went to the dentist today here in Silicon Valley. In talking with my dental hygenist I discovered that she bought a home in South San Jose in 2005 with her now-fiance. She must be about mid-to-late 20's.
They purchasaed right at the peak in her neighborhood. She says its lost 50% of its value. Bought with no money down. They've been making Interest Only payments.
I asked if they've thought about walking away. She responded that she's worried about the hit to her credit, and they're kind of attached because they did a bunch of remodeling.
Folks around them have walked away. Her friend, a RE agent has suggested she walk away (and presumably buy another home through him!).
I think that's the first poster-child for the housing bubble that I've met in person.
Government Stimulus Recipients frequent the parks and alleys that I do. They always are looking to trade their stamps for my services. Of course, I say no unless they are physically attractive, have brushed their teeth in the last three days, and don't have visible bumps on their privates. OK, sometimes I even say yes to those people who have bumps. Times are tough...
TJ is correct. 24.
It is a Deadbeat Society.
I suspect that is not the case. It's just that it since it is becoming more public, people are more willing to talk about it now.
Perhaps the first to admit it?
I'm not so sure the market can always go higher, just cause of second derivative mojo.
As I see it , the UE rate will be ~= 10% thru 2010. Krugman is right, there is little O can do now to alter that course. He should have temporarily nationalized BAC and Citi and jump start lending!
ate O's lunch!
The
thanks...
I forgot which party was in power in the early 80s {Reagan, a man blessed by good luck and thought myopically everyone else
had the same shot... at least Nixon knew first hand what the underbelly of American failure looked like - his dad}
and even the recession of the early 90s.
Anyone 'invested' in GS? Just curious...
Very likely. I still maintain the Democrats will pay in 2010.
Underwater is like genital wrts. You are afflicted but it is the fault of that $40 transgender hooker who seduced you in Rio. Damn transgenders. Like the FBI and Delorean.
Upon further review...
How with this hygienist feel 1-2-3 years from now with the home's value still 50% +/- underwater? And of course, that IO loan will reset sometime, and unless the economic situation is unchanged the mortgage interest rate is going to be somewhat higher than it is now.
Just because I believe in making money doesn't mean I don't have any pride, or honor, anything like that.
I also wouldn't invest in a cat house, even if it was legal.
When are they going to fix the UE rate? If it's double digits, that's too high. Can't we put a multiplier in to bring it down?
He should have temporarily nationalized BAC and Citi and jump start lending!
the problem is the lack of credit-worthy borrowers (relative to 2006), at least for non-governmental lenders. the two credit sectors that are booming, FHA and student loans, have almost zero credit standards. next up is the return of subprime/leasing automobiles.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
hummm... GSR. Isn't that the abbrev. for Gun Shot Residue?
"John, what are these 10 pound bags of cocaine doing in the closet instead of in the living room for our friends?"
"I think the FBI put them there."
"Is that the same FBI who built your mechanically inept silver car?"
PK agrees with you, thus the reference to Anzio where the US commander took great casualties.
Hi MP. I clicked the rollover movie link you posted earlier. I will have to see all of it. Looked it up on imdb and one of the blurbs made me giggle. "if you like conspiracy and finance you will like this move and if you dont you wont" or something close to that.
picosec,
I could tell she's considering walking away from the house. I bet she will as soon as they have to start paying off the principal, not just interest. For now, it might not be that much more than renting! Why move? I should have asked her that, being as nosy as I am...
Saw a ZH comment that complainin' about bankstas is just 'populism'...everything has a label...
Profiting off the squid is definitely NOT de rigueur...
I think jobs are created manly by small Business, and from what I gather from my banking buddies, lending to them have dried up immensely.
The Democrats were destined to pay from the day they were elected. Something to do with inevitability and timing.
I beileve CR's euphemism for this was "pre-privatization."
Well for what it's worth I've voted for 9.9, basically because I think TPTB will really be applying the fudge factors this time around. They must be desperate to keep it under 10 and avoid upsetting the first part of the shopping season.
I know 0.1% is statistically meaningless, but psychologically there's a HUGE difference between 9.9% and 10%.
And it's
time if it happens to be 9.94 . . .
Krugman writes in NY Times:
The fateful decision, early this year, to go for economic half-measures may haunt Democrats for years to come."
...
or better said by Napoleon, "if you're going to take Vienna, take Vienna, don't do it half-way."
In '62, when Nixon was running for governor in California, his wife made a campaign appearance in Richmond, CA at the civic auditorium, which had a capacity of at least 1,000.
Anyway, only about half-a-dozen people showed up. I was one of them.
Pat was supposed to make a speech, but didn't. She came off the stage and asked everyone to sit together in the front row, which we did. She talked with us about anything and everything of interest to us. It was a real learning experience for me, but I know it upset her a great deal.
As you know, her husband was beaten badly in that one.
@Duke,
"if you're going to take Vienna, take Vienna, don't do it half-way."
I wonder if he felt the same about Russia.
What's the 'economic full-measure'? A quadrillion dollars?
It is easy to fault decision makers now, Paul. But the book was written before they took office. All-in or do-nothing would ultimately have the same result. Failure.
Ahh, yes. IO payments probably are comparable to rent.
Rollover was released shortly after The China Syndrome, which was another prescient film.
I saw it when it came out and would like to see it again, perhaps on DVD.
Anyway, it was a very plausible scenario then, even more so now.
ozajh wrote:
You betcha! If you listen, the echoes of the twisted and broken arms in the bureaucracy are resounding around DC.
It is like Cheney asking three times for the CIA to review the Iraq/Saddam link: "you'd better get aboard or the train will pass you by".
One thousand million million dollars is the 'whole enchilada'...needed for 'stimulus'...
IO payments are generally much less than rent from what I understand. No money down, Section 8 living in a nice neighborhood. The American Dream.
That is true. It is also true that great opportunities are possible only with great problems. I am pretty sure, O had the mandate for trying course changing policies. Republican shenanigans aside.
.
Paul Krugman is intellectually bankrupt. It's so painful to see him respected.
If the wisdom of crowds holds, CR's poll currently indicates about 9.97% UE. We'll see.
ozajh,
BTW, I totally remember the whole naming thing -- ajh / anotherajh -- when it happened. Seems like ancient history.
noob,
At the end of the last thread, I think you were gently letting the Congress persons 'off the hook'...
When you become a celebrity and your attentions are diverted other places, you lose your focus. And your ideas and predictions suffer.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Oz, Thanks for exposition; I always wondered why anyone would want "Another Raj" and how the Indian readers felt about that.
E. Thomas,
Krugman's earlier work basically predicted this clustermess indirectly...in other failed economies anyway...but U.S. is next...
Does anyone really think politics will let the number get above 10% any time soon?
BTW, really enjoyed the video from the last post, I think I'll be sending that to some friends.
The 'financial crises' work of macroeconomic theory and models can be used for 'formulas' maybe...a 'how to' of sorts...or 'how not to'...
Here's a link to a few clips from that film
YouTube - Financial crisis predicted in movie "Rollover"
Hume Cronyn and I must have shared the same tailor.
Pretty bad news if it comes out at 10.0%. They will use every fudge factor possible to pull it down.
I vote for 9.9% with all sorts of fudge in the fine print. It'll be the fudge packed U3 number.
Same with 'relevant' currency crises work (research)...
(Un)Government Stimulus Recipient numbers are so unreliable it is proposterous. Like telling a man with an empty 40 gallon tank in his pick-up that 3 gallons is half full. He might believe it until he runs out of gas 30 miles down the road. Then he is angry and wielding a tire iron.
But his position of solving the mess now rests on throwing money at the problem in a vague and indiscriminate way. It's fucking ridiculous.
Noob,
When citizens write letters 100-to1 against something and Congress goes forward anyway...there's no excuse...
E Thomas,
I agree...reeediculous!
The banks weren't saved...
Elvis wrote:
Right....let them eat cake. What happened to the last sovereign that said that?
Vague and indiscreminate money throwing is a sign of a "Oh, Fu&k!" moment. Like the car falling off a cliff so he turns on the windshield wipers and honks the horn.
I don't know if that's really what he thinks or if that's what he says because he has to defend the administration. I have a feeling if Bush were still president and throwing all this money around, Krugman would be sounding like Mish. Unfortunately, he's the celebrity left wing economist so all he can really do is offer some mild criticism. It's obvious he reads CR and agrees with most of the stuff CR posts. He has to know this whole recovery is an expensive government sham. I just don't think he's willing to say it out loud right now because it would be seen as attacking Obama.
Perfect mental image and analogy.
The thing that really gets me about PK is his whole Cheney "Deficits Don't Matter" thing. He truly believes that (a) everything can be fixed with monetization and (b) there will be no negative consequences whatsoever.
and (b) negative consequences can be controlled.
I think is closer.
I'll concede that, although the effective differences would be lost on him.
No no no Merchants of fear when Congress votes against 100 to one dissenteing constituents they get to feel like competent, learned STATESMEN guiding the poor misguided lower levels of people through the bad times cuz they know better and have the strength to rise above mob rule!!*
Still on unemployment?
If it ain't double digits it's doubletalk.
C
I'll give them this though: They thought it would work.
I'll bet not one of them imagined throwing that much money at the problem wouldn't have solved it.
What did the man with eight fingers say to the unruly crowd? "FU,"
They "hoped" it would work. Hope is a dangerous emotion.
My guess is they were petrified of systematic colllapse. It was a closed session, wasn't it? Inside fear mongering (and maybe rightly so), won out. The problem is they should have reconsidered after they pissed themselves that day.
A little factoid for those of you not aware. Most intelligence operations are privately funded by private interests with private objectives.
Some call it "the invisible hand."
Adam Smith would approve?
Most intelligent operations are privately funded by private interests with private objectives.
I think we knew that. Oh wait, you said "intelligence".
Probably, in consideration of the fact that "Wealth of Nations" was a policy study commissioned by the exchequer.
I should add that some folks call this kind of activity "giving history a nudge."
Leninists, usually.
C
If you are an expatriatriate employed as an exchequer and your ex-wife executed you, would your birth country exume your body to examine the evidence?
What, is Duke in trouble again?
C
My guess is it depends...
Time to go to my 7-11 shift. Later...
Now, if someone wanted to analyze Goldman's motives, they might start by looking at Rubin's history. It's interesting that, while good 'ole Bob was helping Hillary with her finances that his son was helping arrange Obama's.
It's a small world after all.
I guess.
It may be a small world but connections and opportunities increase the perception of size to damn near infinity. For some.
And just what did old Walt know, and when did he know it? Talk about private interests gathering intel.
Everybody who matters does it.
"Business Intelligence" comes from public sources like the trades, salesman interviews, memorandums of conversations.
It all gets digested, literally and figuratively.
"Noob,
When citizens write letters 100-to1 against something and Congress goes forward anyway...there's no excuse...
The sequence of events was actually:
100-1 against tarp.
Vote fails.
Market falls 600 odd points
90-10 for tarp (calls and letters literally switched right after the first vote and subsequent market collapse)
Vote passes
Market jumps a few hundred.
J6P breathes a sigh of relief
Market spends the next week following 700 points.
As soon as the market fell and people starting screaming for tarp to be passed I knew the battle was lost.
sdtfs wrote:
Like pissing on a forest fire.
rsj wrote:
I'm sure the desire to postpone the reckoning for the mess that they helped make, the upcoming election, and banksters promising to cut checks, did not hurt either.
poic wrote:
I vote for 9.9% with all sorts of fudge in the fine print.
I'll wager that the "fudge" is used up and that we are well into bullshit land by now.
SNAFU wrote:
Well I suspect if/when we break double digits, that the pork will begin to fly. Stimpack II at a minimum. TARP voters I would think would be an easy target for any competent primary or general adversary.
@rsj
I was looking for something that might help your understanding of business intelligence, but couldn't find anything appropriate.
Unfortunately, all of the stuff I found was oriented towards computer hardware, software, reports, etc., which is what I would expect.
The type of intelligence I'm referring to, which is the most powerful of all, requires good people.
To hear the software people talk about it, business intelligence was invented in 1981, but it has been around as long as long as there have been businesses.
One of the best examples of a business intelligence organization has been around almost two centuries.
Reuters.
It's all about what they call "information asymmetry" now. Reuter understood that a long, long time ago.
Humint. Thank you MP for looking. I appreciate it. I do understand though. I was being silly about walt disney and the its a small world comment. From what I understand the business community doesnt set foot into and out of foreeign countries without getting chatted up over a drink at least or a more formal debrief for the biggies. I heard that travel to russia was treated like that, and now china. India too I imagine. Sometimes the business person doesnt even know.
The theing about intel which you obviously know is that n0o matter what tech there is, no matter what signals generated, no matter what raw information is gathered without the right people with the right smarts and the right abilities to make rapid and correct connections and get the info to the people who need it most, it is all worthless. Humint makes the intel wheel turn.
Yup.
Have a good day/night.
rsj - hasn't changed much since Richard Hakluyt. Goog a little.
C
I will goog more counterpointer. but for now goodnite. have a great day everyone
Back in the early 80s we had a nice executive exchange with Japanese counterparts. Their execs were industrial and process engineers and metalurgists. They wore shoes with soft heels that picked up in process alloys and heat treatments as they toured the floor feigning limited English. They sure learned a lot. Actually they didn't as we seeded the chips on the floor with misleading material but the point about information gathering and asymmetries should be clear.
rsj wrote:
Or you can just guess correctly ahead of the data for 64 winning days out of 65.
Story about Walt Disney. My buddy went to Carnegie Tech where he met a guy who claimed his father roomed with Walt in college. In his father's senior year, Walt begged his father to go to California with him and help him build an amusement park. He didn't go. The rest is history.
Was at Disneyland yesterday. Fun, short lines, etc. Went to the ASIMO demo. Honda in 1950 made motors for bicycles. Today FCX and Hondajet and a robot that can actually run. GM? They have GMAC and an iPod jack in their Buicks.
. . . except that she never said it. What is particularly interesting to me is that two-hundred-odd years on, a lie circulated by her enemies is still believed and repeated. It was, as we know, tremendously effective then. It sways public opinion regarding a long-dead woman today.
A lie is a very powerful thing. This one is so good it still makes people furious.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Admit it CR, you do like Instapundit, and que posts to go up at ungodly hours, just to make us think you never sleep /snark
Wow, my ad is get $250 in groceries free. Hoocoodanode? Busy day today. I enjoyed reading Yves report about Goldman getting vaccine and the subsequent comments this morning.
I'll be anxious to read about the UE numbers and how they will get massaged into something resembling a
while in fact, the yoy ue is stunning.
I'm pretty upset and disturbed over the Ft. Hood shootings too. I think we'll see more of this sort of thing across the nation. Desperate people will do desperate things. Human nature is violent when people feel threatened, broadly I think people have been conditioned to believe it is their neighbor who is their enemy, rather than a realize the government was hijacked by big money interests who are now the ruling class. Their calculus allowed businesses to take out real benefits, real security in jobs including those who have advanced technical degrees, while sucking up more and more and more of disposable incomes that became smaller and smaller. Greedy, small minded IDIOTS.
Its amazing what people will do when they have little to nothing to lose. We shall see just how much more hate-mongering can divert eyes from where they should be focused.
burnside wrote:
Truth is the first casualty of war, never let truth get in the way of a good story, and the winners get to write history.
traderwalt wrote:
Something is not quite right with that story, as there was an awful lot of time and a world war, between Mickey Mouse and Disneyland.
Admit it CR, you do like Instapundit, and que posts to go up at ungodly hours, just to make us think you never sleep /snark
When Glenn Reynolds aka Instapundit was a second year law professor, he taught me torts, when he was a third year law professor I took some seminar from him and the small class met for beers a few times. He's a very, very bright guy.
OT Faber in Turkey
Investment guru urges Eastern-centric approach - Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review
good morning
i voted. i figured it would really be 10%(not my vote) but it would have to be revised upward like maybe in jan (isnt it usually 2 months when they figure out what anything really is?)
on my way here i found this,
Extended Homebuyer, Jobless Aid Passed by Congress (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Blackhalo,
I read Walt's wiki bio after I posted. It coulda' happened, or maybe I recall the story incorrectly. The story may be mostly true, but surely insignificant.
I don't believe it (particularly China) but fwiw:
Hackman wrote:
Two blogs I read all the time, Instapundit and CR - Glenn admits he has material set to go up at later hours or while he is traveling, to keep the blog fresh
and now for something completely different:
Consider that Obama is continuing the Bush policy of throwing massive amounts of money at Federal government jobs and student loans (to remove productive workers from the UI roles). This alone probably moves the IU numbers down at least 5%.
SNAFU wrote:
Completely agree. Obama teamed up with the
.
In NJ, i decided to go vote after O came to town.
Shoeshine boy says: Buy gold.
got a question. why is fanniemae d4l only using gross monthly income,why not net? if the cap on monthly rent is not more than 31%. you got some hidden expenses (fed state taxs fica etc) that you dont think about and also how many you claim on taxes has a bit to do with how much they deduct. your insurance plan has an affect on how much you pay also.
i think this might be trouble, not a true picture of income. sometimes 50 dollars or lack of it really mess you up
ewww, sorry for posting too much. Never fear, I gotta get outta here this morning.
I think this is just the start of what is the real picture and where we are going. CRE is a massive bomb counting down. This also paints the picture of unemployment, no? I don't think you can separate the two.
By Dan Levy
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601203&sid=auL5z.hdq7ko
Investment Question: Purchase of Gold at 1090 area.
Does anyone think that gold, now at its altime high, flat now for 48 hours, is a great buy here? Is it possible that this time it's different, that J6Pak just needs to look up from the latest schports entertainment and call his/her broker to go get into a gold fund, and they'll make money?
This moment is just like the moment right before the subprime collapse when every dumbass was positive that they too can make some of that money, too, as after all, they just needed to hold the house for just a little while, maybe a year, and they'd make hundreds of percent on their investment.
IMO, this market behavior is The Lure. The shorts are dead and liquidating. As soon as that's done, and the ignorant newbies are in, this market will drop 50 bucks in an hour or two. And as long as I'm not seeing the market opportunities, on a short term basis (as gold is going to The Great Doubling and then 3,4,5,6 and who knows after that), it won't matter what happens as to me there is risk, and nobody in their right mind assumes risk.
obama trains and GE Rail Overview: Engines, Diesel Locomotives, Trains, Traffic
slumdog
come into my palor said the spider to the fly thats what the market is saying and dont think the fly is going to get tea and crumpets.hehehe
sorry parlor instead of palor. parlor
Jobs! We don't need no stinking Jobs...Obama has our back.
We will break $1100 today on
$1090 seems to be the floor at the moment.
When the direction in a market is not clear to me, I step aside. The money that is made is what I call God's Money. I don't understand what's happening at that time; and I'm not a gambler. For me and probably for most people, there are rare windows of understanding, when all the prior study and independent thought result in an "Ah Ha" moment. Then, the risk is low.
Of course one could say there's no such thing as knowing. That's malarky. It's like the weather. Sometimes, you can sense what's next because the set up is the same... big dark clouds, background thunder, dropping barometer. Then, at that one moment, the watcher has a high probability understanding. The rest is "entertainment".
I'm sticking with my commodity plan of barter material and that all important TP since physical publications like Sears Robuck catalogs
are mostly digital now and can't serve a second utility..
Shill, I left at 1085+ range. The sure, large move has occurred, 985-1085. Can you say now that the market will probably move from 1090 to 1190? I can't see it without a price adjustment. The breakaway gap of 10 at 1045 is real. And in all the times I've looked, about 5% of the time, those gaps become permanent, as in either 1-3 months before getting filled, or maybe 1% never get filled. Those are gamblers odds. I enter the market to make money, to be sure I can take what I want, because the fear once in a position is for me mind numbing. Long physicals is a comfort and then gold becomes like art on the wall, of no real value. Long market positions, unhedged, again they are what they are, and the goal is much higher; they're insurance. But the trading money is traded when the risk is low. I gotta "see" it before I take the risk. 1100 is not a meaningful move. Most times I've watched the small, easy move, the markets exploded in my positional hands. So, I won't do a thing until I know the newbies are wasted and the shorts have tapped out.
"Jobs! We don't need no stinking Jobs...Obama has our back."
I wish I could blame one man for the loss of jobs and the poor economy. I wish I didn't see an overarching system and decades of decisions that have gutted our manufacturing and bet the farm on an information/service economy dependent on foreign credit to exist. I wish I didn't see a special interest/corrupt/donation system that keeps on serving the short term interest of an election cycle or a need to make those quarterly numbers to feed salaries and bonuses. I wish I didn't see an education system that has failed our children in full view of their parents who can't accurately elucidate their vague feelings of unease that something is wrong but not clear on what.
I wish I had Shill's ease at assessing blame for the systemic failures I perceive all around and could crystallize it to one man's fault. Have a great day all, we create our own reality.
Agreed, but Gold is a buy and hold for me, I consider it a " Real " savings if you will, I play the Miners and Junior miners that is where I make my money. If one needs the cash sure sell your Gold and take the money and run. But I think too many are jumping on the " Cash for Gold " thinking. We have a long awaited upside coming in Metals, the boat has not even left the dock yet.
Obama has our back..........where did say I was blaming anyone? Please refrain from putting words in my mouth it's very, Uncouth and Far left like.
It's the truth!
House Votes to Extend Jobless Benefits
No need to rush out and look for a job, just hang around the house, surf the net, check out CR a few times a day.
The House has approved a bill that will extend unemployment benefits for up to another 20 weeks to nearly 2 million people who have lost or are in danger of exhausting unemployment benefits.
There has been no comment from anyone in Congress re the drain in money from the economy that will occur as a result of the money needed to pay the unemployment benefits. None, nothing, Nada.
I smell a big rally. Stocks are only valued at 20x 2011 earnings.
gabyjan wrote:
If real lending standards where used right now almost all RE sales would come to a complete stop, prices would immediately crater and the foreclosure rate would sky rocket. They are recycling foreclosures to slow the fall. The $8K is just another sucker program to make first time buyers the new generation of debt slaves. Government has become the enemy of the American Dream.
Pass the coffee please.
lobbyist ben dover
i plead early in morning,lack of coffee when i wrote that,altho re-re-re default kept popping up in my mind, just another one to join a long line.
thank you
you know we could start scoring their(gov)"efforts" i give this one an 8 to bring in more defaults
Government has become the enemy of the American Dream.
Hey, many
employees are American!
Multi-million dollar bonuses,
flu shots, what more could you dream of?
,rads & apparatchicks,
I'd imagine the hoi empolloi is worried they'll be sans-jobs soon, and employers know they can pick and choose from lengthy lists of aspiring applicants who are keenly aware of just how few jobs are out there, in the void.
eric
being american
you sure about that? about many
I said many, not most or all.
Although I'd guess it's really "most", I have no evidence.
here we go..........................
Here piggy piggy?
Externalized Costs wrote:
No one should blame O for the current crisis.
However, IMO O lied when he made these promises.
1] Won't sign a bill with pork.
2] No lobbyists in the administration.
3] Something on the lines of Taxpayers should get a better deal than Warren Buffett.
4] Companies that outsource will be taxed.
5] Something about line by line review of the budget.
6] Tough Bank regulation.
...
I don't care about many other promises that have fallen apart. I see the above as important to me.
spoos dropping
long stops being run
short stops to be run in a minute....
10.2%
hat tip to nova on dow 10K @ 10%
-190k, 10.2%
THAT'S THE BOTTOM (getting my spin in early)
Revisions to proior months are positive. Funny, they don't look at that when it's negative.
Jim Cramer said it wouldn't go above 10%. Wrong again, Jimmy.
LOL, I'm dizzy.
Whoa.
U6 at 17.5%.
But it is a lagging indicator
October jobless rate surprises, up to 10.2%; nonfarm payrolls shed 190,000 jobs
brutal, esp the U6
god damn... ~1 in 5
I know, let's blame government for hiring too many people.
Gold climbing! $1100 today as predicted
We need another $1T stimulus to save another 650,000 jobs! Hurry or we will collapse!
does U-6 include all the unemployed workers that are jamming up college enrollment in record numbers?
Like clockwork.
YouTube - Five To One (Live Roundhouse London)
Median duration is up to 18.7 weeks - people out of work longer.
Aggregate hours declined - should impact consumer spending. Horrid Christmas retail season.
Black Friday today?
The good news is that there is still time to vote in the BFF Poll!
Have a good day.
Duh, if we cut taxes, we'll have more jobs. Duh.
$4 dollar too $1100
gold price
Large losses were seen in manufacturing,
I thought we were just talking about increased employment in manufacturing???
As a reminder, we need to be adding 125K jobs a month to fully employ all those entering the workforce (just to keep the unemployment rate from moving higher).
WOW! Look at Gold go!!!!!!!!!
Ding-Dong! The Economy is dead!
A reminder that mfg represents only 10% of the nations GDP now.
Nancy,
We better ram through our health care bill before people have time to get @#$%&! about the unemployment numbers and realize the stimulus was a failure.
SIncerely,
Barack