Wow!

This has gone on long enough. We need a hotel Czar.

Textbook head and shoulders pattern forming on the S&P

Yeah, that worked SO WELL back in July.

Hotel News Now | Hotels News - Article

what you said, LBD - with a holy sh!t thrown in - here we are two freaking years in and the Year Over Year drop in occupancy rate now looks identical in magnitude to the Year Over Year drop that occurred twelve months ago

Yeah, that worked SO WELL back in July.

This time I PROMISE!!!

How does that go - "this signal works 100% about 2/3 of the time..."

GtG for awhile, I hope we hear from Christina. Thanks everyone.

EvilHenryPaulson wrote:

so will we find out what comes after stagflation this time?

Clusterfucation.

energyecon wrote:

What's your point on the price signal when I am explicitly viewing if from the producers' POV and the impact that near industry wide hedging has on the supply response (or lack thereof) to falling prices?

I should have made it explicit: I don't have an issue with your points on the suppliers response. Indeed, it's logical, and it's what I've witnessed elsewhere. As long as the suppliers have the cash flow originating from their hedges, they do not change output. This distorts the market price downward and leads to over-supply conditions. I don't think anyone can argue with that, and I should have made that more clear.

My thought was that--since suppliers hedged out everything they could as far into the future as they could--the price signal skewed to over-supply for an extended period. Normally this should have been checked by buyers coming in as the price fell, especially to lower levels, and hedging all of their consumption out as far into the future as possible. However, since large industrial users--those predispositioned to hedge--are only a portion of the buyers market, most users of natural gas are very price sensitive and reduce their consumption as soon as prices rise. If they all hedged, they would also be unaffected by upswings and price and would keep consumption unchanged.

My point, is that pervasive hedging should really just result in longer cycle times for high and low prices; however, since natural gas hedging is predominantly on the production side, the upswings would be brief and the troughs would be extended.

albrt wrote:

And I make a point of never trading unless I am going to make a profit so you should do the same thing immediately.

I require a flowchart.

I have a reservation in Pavlovegas-adjacent for a $10 room in a hotel-casino, next week. It's hell on RevPAR #'s

What's next?, Motel 6 starts charging $6 for a room again...

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

Motel 6 starts charging $6 for a room again...

It is rebranded as Motel 3 is more like it

Final thoughts from the last thread.

1. Zouaves were the names given to some volunteer early Civil War regiments, so named because they wore red uniforms copied off of "dashing" french army uniforms of the period. This trend died (figuratively and literally) by 1863.
2. Anarchist health care = bullet
3. Fer cryin' out loud, Gabyjan, you're writing online. You type and we'll supply the timing.

so will we find out what comes after stagflation this time?

demographics reversing the misallocation of wealth (I hope)

noob goldberg wrote:

This distorts the market price downward and leads to over-supply conditions

That was one of your original points last thread, which sparked my thought on supplier hedging in natural gas markets. Thanks for making your thoughts explicit on the rest of the story.

Interesting observation on the user hedging, what we have is something like a "Coase Corollary" - due to the relatively small volumes used by a large number of retail consumers, requisite skills and access costs, etc. the costs for individual consumers to hedge are much higher per unit (or the proudcts are unsatisfactory in the case of EHP and UNG )

sheeeeeeit, where's our pseudo-Nobel!

im very glad to report that

the giant blood sucking squid

and our other wall street overlords

have secured significant doses of H1N1 vaccine for their top people

ahead of high risk groups like pregnant mothers

who are waiting in line at NYC hospitals

from newsweek

New York Businesses Get H1N1 Vaccine - BusinessWeek

energyecon
you probably already know, but the transcanada NG pipepline is increasing transportation fees 50% because of reduced volumes, and they are regulated to have a maximum 9% rate of return. they didn't sign long term contracts so they were the first carrier dumped apparently

Hotel RevPAR--Xeno's paradox in action

,rad mock,

Putsch yourself in their position.

energyecon wrote:

Interesting observation on the user hedging, what we have is something like a "Coase Corollary" - due to the relatively small volumes used by a large number of retail consumers, requisite skills and access costs, etc. the costs for individual consumers to hedge are much higher per unit.

I'd share the podium with you, if only for the free champagne. I'm a bit of a reception whore.

But I really liked your thoughts on the Coase corollary. If I had my way, Ron would be presented to economics students within the first few weeks of Economics 101, instead of being relegated to the end of some sparsely-attended 4th year technical course.

dude, the check is 50/50 as well !

I'm surprised HOG is up today...

Whiskey wrote:

So, why is communism so much worse than capitalism? I forgot.

In communism 'we pretend to work and they pretend to pay us'... in capitalism it is the reverse order.

Whiskey said so remind me how is capitalism better than communism?

i despise communism about as much as i despise laissez fair (totally free) market capitalism

i believe in a regulated market system that rewards entrepreneurs and professionals handsomely

but as well taxes progressively to ensure that the "utility functions" of society are provided (ie good public schools, clean water, uncorrupted police and other public safety functions..the usual)

and opportunities for intra class mobility are maintained (im against the notion of legacy where by the children of the rich automatically get the best ... entrance into yale and harvard cause mummy and daddy went there and gave a bunch of money... for example without regard to their competitive Merritt)

Going forward, hotels build within the last decade or so are going to have poor salvage value added to their woes. It's hard to convert a hotel to low income housing when the hotel isn't near jobs.

But if the hotels retain their concierge service, people will know where to find the best brie and cake.

(walks back towards neutral corner...)

Origin:

1915–20; < G Putsch, orig. Swiss G: lit., violent blow, clash, shock; introduced in sense “coup” in standard G through Swiss popular uprisings of the 1830s, esp. the Zurich revolt of Sept. 1839

The market actiion makes me wonder if the Dukes have tomorrow's jobs report.

Yalt wrote:

Ahh...finally an explanation for yesterday's big upward move in ABK....

Ah yes, the "Bizarro World" school of investing. Bad news is good!

which could mean run it up sell the news!

,rad pavel,

Perhaps the indians knew what they were doing, selling it for $24?

Sorry for the duplicate - that was meant to be another story.

NOTaREALmerican wrote:

Communism removes the incentive for honest work and saving as the rewards are shared by the amoral scumbags that run society and the lazy. Unlike capitalism.

Capitalism promotes the incentive for dishonest work and credit as the rewards are taken from the moral sheep that graze on the society's lawns?

In the unlikely event of a meteor strike of that size, it'd be even more unlikely to occur over an urban area.

Unless Goldman held puts on the insurers.

mock turtle wrote:

i despise communism about as much as i despise laissez fair (totally free) market capitalism

i believe in a regulated market system that rewards entrepreneurs and professionals handsomely

These are three abstractions that don't actually exist.

Eric wrote:

Unless Goldman held puts on the insurers.

Hah!

I just googled, for the fun of it. 3% of the earth's land surface is apparently 'urban', and water covers almost 71% of the earth.

Therefore it's 3% of 29%. I'll put that fairly low on my list of 'things to keep me up at night'.

homedad43 wrote:

What do you call a man with no arms or legs hanging on a wall? Art.

What do you call a man with no arms or legs who invested everything in a McMansion in 2005? F*cked.

splat wrote:

That sounds like a title for a show on the 'History Channel' ( aka. the new tabloid what-if-godzilla-attacked-portland-and-fired-laser-from-his-eyes channel ).

Okay, I LOL'd pretty hard at that.

I love 'History', but their stock dropped precipitously with "Nostradamus 2012".

What do you call a man with no arms or legs who works for Goldman? Dick.

noob goldberg wrote:

I love 'History', but their stock dropped precipitously with "Nostradamus 2012".

Makes you wonder about the other "History" they depict, doesn't it?

No arms no legs at the bottom of a pool? Dwayne.

What do call a man with no arms no legs no head and no body?

yagij wrote:

Capitalism promotes the incentive for dishonest work and credit as the rewards are taken from the moral sheep that graze on the society's lawns?

Unless we're an "ism" believer. Then we know that most people are honest (and above average) and this will never happen.

Corporation?
edit: L inc?

Maria's plugging it in . . . . . .

(eastern U.S. brownout...............)

sm_landlord wrote:

Makes you wonder about the other "History" they depict, doesn't it?

Nah, it all seems legit.

Makes you wonder about the other "History" they depict, doesn't it?

A good view of 'History' is that it's His Story, usually written by the victors with a healthy dash of propaganda made real. It often gets more interesting decades after the real events when the truth really starts to come out.
~splat

Hitler's Dream Bungalow was a pretty suspect show.

The series "Pets of the Third Reich" was one of their best.
~splat

Stasi files, anyone?

Gabyjan:

See? Jokes here aren't that difficult.

Love the Dwayne and Dick remarks, BTW.

Pay problem parents not to breed - mayor

followed soon by tax credits for castration...

Later folks.

Vonbek777 wrote:

Pay problem parents not to breed - mayor

Talk about solving the wrong problems...

Vonbek777 wrote:

Pay problem parents not to breed - mayor

This is number #2 on the list of things a politician should never intentionally say, right behind 'Hitler was a personal hero of mine' and right before 'I'm going to have to raise property taxes to pay for my new private jet'.

noob goldberg wrote:

This is number #2 on the list of things a politician should never intentionally say, right behind 'Hitler was a personal hero of mine'.

Is Hitler such a touchy subject in New Kiwiland? What did the Nazis do to them?

And now for something completely different...rsj posts on-topic!

Where I am we are having a very strong 2 months. Sunday through thursday is busier than the weekends. We sell out at least one of those nights, and always are above 80 percent occupancy for those nights. weekends? Not so good. I think it is a mix of business travelling and the Great Migration of the Retired.

OOh ooh we had a documentary film crew stay last night. snagged the last non-smoking doubles we had. So on that little datapoint alone I would venture to guess that the independent film industry is alive and chugging along!!

yagij wrote:

Is Hitler such a touchy subject in New Kiwiland? What did the Nazis do to them?

Nothing. It's just that the rest of the world hates Hitler and the Kiwi's are notorious bandwagon jumpers.

noob goldberg wrote:

It's just that the rest of the world hates Hitler and the Kiwi's are notorious bandwagon jumpers.

It isn't like they are promoting the extermination of other people's people. They aren't storming into Australia to wipe out their aborigines. I think you are just showing some disrespect to a fellow member of the Crown's loyal subjects.
.
Besides less Kiwis there means an easier time for me to immigrate there!

Vonbek777 wrote:

Pay problem parents not to breed - mayor

This is only a possible solutions when all racial and ethnic group trust each others motives and live in peace and harmony.

Yalt wrote:

The same thing he did to the US--gave them an excuse to send their kids halfway around the world to fight and die.

Did they really send their kids to die or send poorer, less influential kids to die, or was the policy of sending rich kids to school and poor kids to war only become policy after 1945?

yagij wrote:

I think you are just showing some disrespect to a fellow member of the Crown's loyal subjects.

You are correct. I also have relatives that live there, and any country willing to accept them deserves a bit of disrespect.

NEW YORK (AP) -- Criminal charges have been filed against 14 people, including attorneys and Wall Street professionals, in a widening $53 million insider trading case that has already snared one of the richest men in America, federal prosecutors said Thursday.
The actions raise to 20 the number of people who have been charged in the case first disclosed last month with the arrests of Galleon Group founder and hedge fund operator Raj Rajaratnam and five others.
At the time, U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara called the first arrests "a wakeup call for Wall Street."

From NJ.
My friend's kids had high temperature [102+]. Friend's wife calls the doctor. The person answering the phone at the doctor's office reads out symptoms that match swine flu. Friend's wife acknowledges symptoms. Person on the phone says they shouldn't come to the doctor's office because some state council has said so. Advices Tylenol and Mortrin over the phone.

Again, our pediatrician saw our kid. I think mine has swine flu but that won't make it to the official records because no tests were conducted.

There is a long tradition in the USA for sparing the offspring of the wealthy, though it used to require a transfer payment of some kind...

Big disclaimer...this is all chatter, nothing of substance, nothing official. Chatter is two Ukrainian news stations ran stories claiming an upper level official off record said pneumonic plague is 100% confirmed in Ukraine and is responsible for all but two of 60 deaths...the other 2 were H1N1. There is concern that some mutation has occurred, but everything will be called H1N1 as to not feed panic. The story is that the news stations reported this because of the clamp down happening with the new government proclamations. This is all speculation. I haven't found any actual links to the actual news stories...so take it with a grain of salt. This highly resembles what happened in Mexico...could all be fear and sensationalism...or not. That is why I am hoping for some more 'official' info else the wildfire will start to blaze. Just like in Mexico the death count spread is way out of line...60, 70. 88, 3000, 30,000....Pneumonic plague or mutated H1N1 or just plain ole H1N1...reading the link your provided this morning...Ukraine is well on the way to martial law so fears are probably way up.

energyecon wrote:

There is a long tradition in the USA for sparing the offspring of the wealthy, though it used to require a transfer payment of some kind...

I doubt this is unique to the US of A-

NOTaREALmerican wrote:

If you had connections you'd get a tough job like cataloging sites of possible Italian artifacts that should be avoided during a bombing attack. A tough job, but somebody had to do it.

Sweeeeeeeeeeet. I'm loving my country more and more as I get older...

In every town, small or large in NZ, there are 2 memorials.

The first one is quite elaborate, and comes in many shapes and forms utilizing stone and metal, with all the names of Kiwis that lost their lives in the Great War. You just can't imagine how decimated the country was, with so many men lost, compared to population.

The second one you'll see in the same towns are for WW2, and they are all much smaller usually, or an add-on to the WW1 memorials.

It's a country that's sick of war. How sick of war are they?

Earlier this century, they NZ Air Force fighter jets were looking a little long in the tooth, and they had a decision to make, buy new ones, or get rid of them.

They went with Plan B.

Vonbek777 wrote:

Ukraine is well on the way to martial law so fears are probably way up.

!

tncubsfan wrote:

Which one is it people?

The BEST answer is both. You should always live a fully duplicitous life.

Juvenal Delinquent wrote:

Earlier this century, they NZ Air Force fighter jets were looking a little long in the tooth, and they had a decision to make, buy new ones, or get rid of them.
.
They went with Plan B.

It will make smuggling into NZ easier! How will they force me out with no military? Muhahahahahaha!

UUP halted. Issues 100m new shares.

UUP Halted - Issuing 100,000,000 New Shares To Meet Onslaught Of 100 Quintillion New Dollars (Give Or Take) | zero hedge

Just keeps getting better and better doesn't it?

Ciao
MS

JD

no argument about the origins of putsch (i have no knowledge about that)

was just thinking about one of the more notorious that took place in germany under the auspices of hitlers brown shirts and lead to his incarceration, writing of mien kampf and then rise to power after the burning of the reichstag

and my larger point was...thanks but no thanks re that kind of "politics"

the black plague led to the economic miracle of the european renaissance, no?

Federal Bureau of Investigation - The Tampa Division: Department of Justice Press Release

TAMPA—United States Attorney A. Brian Albritton today announced the results of a nine-month-long Mortgage Fraud Surge investigation that has resulted in charges against more than 100 defendants and involves allegations concerning more than $400 million in loans procured by fraud and more than 700 properties.

Press Release: SEC Charges Wall Street Lawyers and Traders in $20 Million Insider Trading Scheme; 2009-236; Nov. 5, 2009

Washington, D.C., Nov. 5, 2009 — The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged a pair of lawyers for tipping inside information in exchange for kickbacks as well as six Wall Street traders and a proprietary trading firm involved in a $20 million insider trading scheme.

On the one hand there's a general prejudice towards assuming that things are worse than public officials will admit (in part that's a well-justified hangover from the Chernobyl experience); on the other hand there's also a general cynicism about officials making use of a crisis for political maneuvering as each side tries to push through changes that will consolidate its own power base.

But I can assure you that fears are way up.

If I get any anecdotal information that seems to be out of line with one extreme or the other I'll let you know; so far it's just better-informed and more complete versions of the same rumors we're getting here.

Something for everybody:

President Barack Obama:

"I am extraordinarily pleased and grateful to learn that the AARP and the American Medical Association are both supporting the health insurance reform bill that will soon come up to vote in the House of Representatives," Obama said in an unannounced visit to the White House briefing room.

The AMA, however, qualified its support of the bill. The organization's president, Dr. James Rohack, said the bill is not perfect, but it meets enough of the organization's goals to deserve its support. But he also said it's also critical for Congress to fix a Medicare payment formula that if left unchanged would lead to a 20 percent cut in fees to doctors next year.

sm_landlord wrote:

regulators' tough examinations are making banks reluctant to lend

I'll defer to Terry if he has a different opinion. Given that solvent banks aren't falling all over themselves to lend, I suspect it is a shortage of creditworthy borrowers who actually want or need to borrow.

This is part of deflation and deleveraging.

EvilHenryPaulson (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 11/5/2009 - 2:21 pm

the black plague led to the economic miracle of the european renaissance, no?

Yes. And it also gave Nostradamus something to do besides write obscure quatrains and calculate horoscopes.

EvilHenryPaulson wrote:

the black plague led to the economic miracle of the european renaissance, no?

Again, there is no (economics | demographics) problem that Death can't fix!

Next week's suggested color-coded home & land security levels:

Monday: Mauve
Tuesday: Taupe
Wednesday: Wisteria
Thursday: Tangerine
Friday: F.I.R.E. Engine Red

For those of you wondering...

Had our meeting. The problem was what I figured it was. Massive inventory underages. We have two weeks to get inventory under control or they are locking the doors and we are fired. Not fair because I don't over pour but I understand the why. I explained to my coworker after boss left that even if you only overpour a half shot every drink that is maybe 50 half shots a day or an entire bottle of whiskey a day you are pouring down the drain. She saw the light...

"Behold, the power of cheese!"

s/cheese/death/

Comrade Kristina wrote:

She saw the light...

Sounds like you got to prove NaRM's point about the American people.
.
You mean I'm not stealing OPM's cash when I overpour? It actually affects me?!

Apparatchick Kristina,

over pour = over poor

ah kristina at least there is time to re-train the heavy-handed. I was a bartender for a little bit, OJT was a waitress they wound up with opening and bam there I was...hahahaha. the first few weeks I had many drinks sent back because they were too strong. sigh. I was a bad bartender.

Yagij it may not even be that cut and dried. Sounds like she didnt even realize it was OPM, or affecting her, because, well, it was just a little itty bit!! No malice or slyness there---just a bit of obliviousness

There's nothing new, all the sites are in economic trance mode waiting.....

The bets have been placed and now the roulette ball is goin' round n round....

It's, it's....

Re: lease for deed. This must make the banks and the NAR very happy, as it will keep additional inventory off the market.

Hey Cinco,
glad to see from an earlier post that you plan on availing yourself of Medicare when you're old enough...you clearly have no problem with socialized medicine, if it benefits you.
And, since you've used your VA benefits, though they are not your first choice perhaps, you are an experienced user of socialized medicine, and found it good enough to look forward to Medicare.

maybe this time we can break 10,000...........

preparing for lift-off

For all you Gold Bugs:

Peter Brimelow
Is India clearing the way for gold 'moonshot'?
Commentary: India's IMF bullion purchase excites the gold bugs

fried wrote:

glad to see from an earlier post that you plan on availing yourself of Medicare when you're old enough...you clearly have no problem with socialized medicine, if it benefits you.
And, since you've used your VA benefits, though they are not your first choice perhaps, you are an experienced user of socialized medicine, and found it good enough to look forward to Medicare.

Usually trolls are a little more...subtle.

6/10 for intent, 3/10 for execution.

Cinco- not many times we agree but this is one of them. Although this time I feel less bad since my son is buying a house and will benefit from the credit.and is also a good example of why this is a shitty idea. he would have bought with or without the credit.

You have to think Maria is fed up with all of the foreplay today.

purchasing a house is a carry trade

here comes Dow 10K, and the market will opening soon.

Rally caps ready?

Commercial mortgage lending down 54%

Commercial mortgage lending down 54% - Washington Business Journal:

It really was obliviousness. I think it hit home when boss said: "It is stealing". I always thought it such but some people just see it as "doing a favor"....I felt bad for my boss, she didn't like having to say what she said. I might be biased because I am in line to take her job in a couple years when she retires (we have five liquor stores and two bars that she manages). She has recommended me as her predecessor when she retires. Irony alert: She's a Republican that won't retire until her Medicare kicks in because she couldn't afford the insurance premiums otherwise...

sm_landlord wrote:

here comes Dow 10K, and the market will opening soon.
Rally caps ready?

shit. that did not just happen.

good lord.

Where is the VOLUME!!!!!!!!!

Where is the VOLUME!!!!!!!!!

Who cares.... look at the pretty sparkly handle.

Oops.... better look quick!

10,000

.....that came and went pretty fast (Maria thinking).

mp wrote:

In reading these comments, I don't see any attempts at risk management, which is per usual. All I see is deck chair re-arrangement, per usual.

It's all deck-chair rearrangements. I have my finger on the Sell button, but what then? More concrete?

Lowest NYSE volume day since October 19.

Come bets, prop bets, all hardways...

Come bets, prop bets, all hardways...

And my favorite, when shooting from the dark side: "Two way Big Red!!!"

Shouldn't be too hard to wire the buy button to one of those as well.

I guess Volume does not matter oh well...just about to hit the sell button....good 2 days so far no complaints.....3 hours sleep in 2 days....but well worth the trip.

Nice pooch, Pavlov.

mp wrote:

Well, you're over-simplifying aren't you, which sounds cute, but isn't useful.

Which was an attempt at humorously stating that I don't have any really good idea about what to do next.

NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 11/5/2009 - 3:11 pm

Poor Mish. I wonder if he gets any sleep at night.

Life got much better when I started judging how I spend my waking hours on the ease and quality of sleep. It's surprising how much good intuition (a product of the b.s. machine or not) we actually have, and simply fail to listen to

barfly,
Find some macroeconomic studies and models that hypothesize that massive unsustainable government (and consumer) over-spending and borrowing, massive unemployment, rapid 'expected' devaluation of the national currency, contagion of these conditions, etc. has good outcomes for economies (and the global economy).

There's growing recognition that Obama made a huge political mistake, comparable to when John Kerry focused on Florida instead of Ohio in the last weeks of his 2004 campaign, by putting so much attention on backing a loser like Corzine and none on bringing down Bloomberg.

Two Obama fingers lifted in favor of Democrats in NYC would have crushed Bloomberg, as Bloomberg's own campaign admitted today in the NY Times. NY Democrats will not soon forget Obama's stupidity or political selfishness.

Also, I've been telling you for some time that where me and Timmy live, real estate taxes are more important than prices. There's a good article today in the NY Times about this, and how voters have had it with the trend in real estate taxes in these parts, where they are the highest in the nation.

- NY Times

OUR TOWNS; The Voters Barked. Now What? - NY Times

,rad mp,

I've done all I can do at my doomstead, I only hope that the observatory gets finished in time, before the rabble rebells.

rich wrote:

There's growing recognition that Obama made a huge political mistake

His biggest mistake was winning.

90 days of food and water will easily fit in a few garbage cans in the corner of the basement. It costs less than what the average person pays for an equivalent period of full coverage auto insurance. Think about it. If we kick the can another year, replace and donate to the foodbank. Expiration dates don't matter to them.

shill wrote:

U.S. Needs Hit Squads, ‘Manhunting Agency’

OMG. Seriously. OMG.

The economic 'majick' is working dryfly!

If we kick the can another year, replace and donate to the foodbank. Expiration dates don't matter to them.

That's a knee-jerk. It's not a planned response.

Plan Q however is to re-enlist in the army

Thereby increasing your personal risk.

Shill I started giggling at first. I was thinking of that old bugs bunny cartoon with that woman in the red dress yelling "oooh a Maaaaan" and then charging like a drunken buffalo.

Then I read the link and coldly thought...hm, if they do need hit teams then people like me who blend in and DO NOT look like everyone's internal vision of a miltary assassin or a Quentin T. Hot Chick Killer will be an asset, hmmmm?

Then a combinaiton of emotion and conscience kicked in and said to myself "self, whatinell are you thinking?"

Keep in mind I am an odd person who can be very cold and unempathetic at tiems, and then others and other topics can be normal.

broward wrote:

His biggest mistake was winning.

Didn't Harry Truman say (something like): When a Democrat acts like a Republican, the Republicans will win every time.

The Democratic Party couldn't take on the squid. They did what you'd expect the Republicans would do. The Democratic Party should be eliminated and replaced by a peasant Party.

(Disclaimer: I know it's imposable for either to actually happen).

The water bit might be more than a few depending on environmental requirements

My average water requirements, for example, are 1,282 gallons per week.

ida is a tropical storm again central pressure below 1000 but with a little bit of luck she will disapate.next briefing is at 4pm est.

Sweet been holding GLD all day, finally making a move...

some investor guy
why not enough chinese for a medium weathly country buy busineses and orphaned homes? or any of our debtors. y'all come on over.semi snark

yes. Indeed. balancing the things though, that is what I am trying to do. Old loans popped up to be paid, minimum wage job with few prospects (my choices/faults) and son to care for and fund.

AS a female the risk is slighlty mitigated since I will not be intentionally placed into a front-line combat situation and with judiciious selection of MOS risk can be further mitigated. However risk is elevated in today's battlefield since there really is no longer any solid Forward and rear areas and communication and support areas are really sweet targets---eh. like i said, Plan Q but really Plan Triple Z, but a possiblity.

That's a pretty large household...just sayin'

well throw in some laundry, dishwasher, actual showers instead of a sponge bath and ya get there right quick...
.
I would imagine there isn't any shop process water or garden water in there but maybe they are doing navy showers...

The difference between planning to survive and planning to live?

The difference between planning to survive and planning to live?

Exactly. As I've said before, I'm not a survivalist.

I'm a survivor.

hey gaby I left a reply on the unemployment thread.

I think all of us feel we have some personal risks mitigated in one way or another, but it sounds like you could head off the grid for an extensive or indefinite period.

Yes.

hydroponics

Greenhouse, actually.

cinco-x
my new hat is turban style and unwinds to fully protect your body with most protection on the head.im covered.

Thank you. You offered FM101-5 before, but I did not see those three pages.

Once you've identified the risks, determine what's required to mitigate them. Begin to balance the cost of mitigation against the loss associated with a given risk.

mp wrote:

Once you've identified the risks, determine what's required to mitigate them. Begin to balance the cost of mitigation against the loss associated with a given risk.

How did you evaluate infrastructure risks? Did you find probability tables, or arrive at your own?

How did you evaluate infrastructure risks? Did you find probability tables, or arrive at your own?

In terms of infrastructure risks such as water, gas, etc, I consider the consequential severity of their loss more significant than their probability of occurrence.

Also, this type of analysis forces one to look at hazards in new ways. For example, the problem of gasoline led me to investigate biodiesel, which led to the purchase of diesel-powered vehicles.

We have the capability to make biodiesel, which means that both diesel fuel and gasoline are no longer strategic materials to us.

In terms of water, we drilled a well.

mp wrote:

In terms of infrastructure risks such as water, gas, etc, I consider the consequential severity of their loss more significant than their probability of occurrence.

This makes sense. I appreciate you taking the time to provide your perspective and experiences, mp.

mp wrote:

The only conclusion I can come to from all of this is that everyone must have come to the conclusion that, if a systemic crash does occur, a personal plan won't mitigate the damage, so there's no need to bother.

you got it!