Today reminds me of when I used to trade TASR.....seems like they had a split every month (not really but it made for action like this).....like the hedge fund who sold out his entire position just before lunch and then came back after an intra-day split was announced and could just only sit and cry about it. I forgot who it was but I remember it well.
Re: Rosethorn
I kind of think of it the other way, and I think recent news supports this view. There will be less and less ability to support JP bond sales, forcing JP gov't bond rates to rise. This will mess with the JP government's ability to pay back obligations, or borrow further. Beyond there, kind of a crap shoot. Printing could occur, or austerity. Either way, bad things await.
There's a tiny clue in the FED statement that hints about watching for another clue. The below max in agency debt the Fed plans to buy of $175 billion versus the max of $200 billion is a baby step in draining funds that the Fed spoon fed to directed sections of the market during the height of the financial crisis.
It will be interesting to see if the Fed sterilizes this drain with $25 billion in Treasury security purchases. Or does the Fed really believe it can pull this money from the markets? Stay tuned. This might provide some insight into how the Fed will handle any further drains of the special funding.
ill ballpark that as a -300k jobs, plus 25k for manuf, and 25k for govt, from stimulus, netting out another quarter million jobs lost for OCT...anyone want to take the under?
I wonder how many cagey Argentineans exchanged their paper money for the barbarous at about this time 8 years ago, when it was available @ just 300 Pesos per ounce?
scone, there is a wide variation, but the center would be a small increase in manufacturing employment (instead of losing 50,000 jobs per month), more than offset by about an extra 80,000 or so lost service sector jobs. But remember there is a lot of variability - but anyone revising their employment forecast up because of the first report should probably revise it back down because of the service report.
noob goldberg, yeah - the manufacturing employment report was everywhere - and for good reason - but I couldn't find a single article pointing out it was offset by this report.
But it raises the question of what is happening to the underground economy? IS it weaker based on the assumption that a lot of folks involved in that are part of the discretionary income economy or is it stronger as more people have decided to work off the books? I lean towards the former.
a small increase in manufacturing employment (instead of losing 50,000 jobs per month), more than offset by about an extra 80,000 or so lost service sector jobs.- CR
I'm thinking the manufacturing jobs pay better than the service jobs, on average, so you'd need a bigger loss of service jobs to match manufacturing, dollar for dollar. Which affects spending, local taxes, etc.
ummm.... aren't there way more people employed in the service sector than manufacturing, so you would expect employment to be more highly correlated with service sector employment than manufacturing - don't need a graph to understand that
the numbers should have no impact no the co-relation. It would be like saying that an indicator in the US will work better than it does in Sweden because we have more people employed.
...the October improvement in manufacturing employment will be more than offset by a decline in service employment. - CR
What percentage of non-farm payrolls do these (manufacturing and service sector) represent? I'm always surprised that we still have as many employed in manufacturing these days.
Everybody keeps talking about what a difficult the job the Fed has. I actually think that they have easiest job that they have had in years. They can impact the most important rate - long term rates without ever having to use the most politically charged rate (Fed funds) . The level at which they bleed of their assets gives them a degree of flexibility and opacity that they have never had. Plus with all the reporting delays and obfuscation we might not even know that they had done anything until much after the fact.
manufacting employment + service employment + govt employment = total employment
if for example 50% of employment is service and only 20% is manufacturing than a 10% percentage change in service employment will have a bigger impact on total employment than a 10% change in manufacturing employment.
The level at which they bleed of their assets gives them a degree of flexibility and opacity that they have never had. - C
True, but they're convinced the markets will go totally ape shit freak out if they "show their work." Which is probably true. Look at the weirdness that happened today, based on a total non-event. They clearly have this "you can't handle the truth" attitude, and I'm not sure they aren't right. OTOH, their method of handling the problem does not work, because peeps think there's some sort of mysterious Illuminati thing going on. So they can't win. The markets are going to get massively hysterical on every little thing, like people who have post-traumatic stress disorder.
BTW those bloggers should really identify who those people are at Treasury....based on what I've read it sure seems they are not going to get any favors. Maybe they are enamored with being picked for deprogramming the "misconceptions" but those meetings are never going to go anywhere. Roast Beef notwithstanding....
scone - in the end it's the old man shaking his fist at the tide as it washes away his seaside McMansion...
We can argue all day about whether or not it was a predictable event and he should have built there in the first place, but I think we can all agree that he's an idiot if he starts rebuilding on the exact same spot.
Democratic turnout collapsed. This is a base problem, and this is what Democrats better take from tonight:
… If you water down reform in favor of Blue Dogs and their corporate benefactors, you will lose votes…
If you forget why you were elected — … financial services … reform — you will lose votes.
...
People elected Obama in the hope that he would be different from Bush. But in the most important ways, he is just continuing Bushand Clinton’s (think repeal of Glass-Steagall) worst policies.
Scone- that is precisely why their job is easier when and if they ever want to tighten conditions. The markets will freak out and do the Feds work for them and the Fed can throw up its hands say " who me- I didn't do anything" . Doing think the politicians will be able to figure out the nuances. Contrast this with 2004 where the Fed tried to tighten but long term interest rates came down. (We can argue whether that was because the Fed telegraphed its moves and was so predictable).
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 11/4/2009 - 4:20 pm
noob goldberg wrote:
all agree that he's an idiot if he starts rebuilding on the exact same spot.
Unless he gets that sweet disaster insurance deal. Then, I'd say rebuild. What the hell.
He's an idiot if he starts rebuilding on the exact same spot and keeps the house. On the other hand, he can sell that house to a sucker/buyer, after taking out an insurance policy for 10-20x the actual value of the house.
He's an idiot if he starts rebuilding on the exact same spot and keeps the house. On the other hand, he can sell that house to a sucker/buyer, after taking out an insurance policy for 10-20x the actual value of the house.
I love you guys. In an amoral, scumbag sort of way, of course.
Guest Post: Will the Democrats Lose in 2010 (or 2012) Because They Won’t Pass Real Financial Reforms? « naked capitalism
In my more idealist moments (usually after a few glasses of wine) I think about how nice it would be if one of the two major parties imploded. But, then I remember their dumbasses....
Scone- that is precisely why their job is easier when and if they ever want to tighten conditions. The markets will freak out and do the Feds work for them and the Fed can throw up its hands say " who me- I didn't do anything" .- c
I can't see that at all. The Fedsters, banksters, politicians, etc. have a vested interest in the status quo. These guys are patently working for "stability" at all costs. Literally, at all costs. And they are gambling that they can control the situation and its consequences.
I work in manufacturing. And I don't believe for a second that manufacturing employment in increasing. The dual mantra in American industry right now is to cut costs by cutting labor and cut costs by outsourcing. It seems like our corporate masters don't even consider growth as a viable plan - instead it's all about increasing margins by cutting and chopping.
I'll also note that our factory is scheduled to close permanently in a few months. So a lot of people I know are looking for a future job. The only manufacturing companies that are hiring at all are in the food processing and medical implement industries. The rest seem to be in dismantle mode.
In my more idealist moments (usually after a few glasses of wine) I think about how nice it would be if one of the two major parties imploded. But, then I remember their dumbasses....
Did you mean they're, or their? Both are true, but I just want to know how to answer.
But this thread is about co-relation between ISM and the BLS number. Just because the service sector employs more people doesn't mean that co-relation service ISM /BLS services payroll is going to be tighter than the manufacturing ISM vis a vis the BLS manufacturing number.
Your comment would be right if CR was comparing total employment (services plus manufacturing) to the ISM services and ISM manufacturing. I don't beleive he did that.
MS,
I think perhaps Treasury was trying to guage how well informed the bloggers were re: what was going on. I haven't seen too many blogs actually focus on the work Congress is doing; ie. commitee hearings and questions of Congressmen.
For example, last week there was a hearing on Market Structure, Dark Pools, High Frequency Trading, etc. I saw Zerohedge link to the live stream but I didn't see any comprehensive analysis on the results. I've listened to about half of it and I think I've learned a lot about "dark pools" liquidity, etc. There is a concern among institutional traders (ie. hedge/pension funds) that dark pools have a function to move the market without their trades getting front-run.... and they are concerned if there is a large institutional trade, the market will get that information and front-run with it. It seems to me the problem would be front-running; or, why should the market not know about large moves by people in dark pools that provide "information" to the market? It sounded like the SEC might force more "dark pool" transparency, which seemed to be the issue rather than the existence or size of dark pools (although the SEC sounded like they wanted to limit the size of dark pools).
On high frequency trading there was a lot of talk; and some confusion on the terms. Some people thought of "high frequency trading" as providing liquidity to the market. My takeaway; was that it depends on your definition of HFT. There was one witness who was talking about HFT in terms of traders putting in lots of orders and also canceling lots of orders. I don't know where I saw an article (Zerohedge?) but I think someone wrote a piece how this type of action gives an indication of "false liquidity"... and there might not be interest at all if the cancellation outweighs the orders that get executed.
All in all; I don't think I've seen any blogger give a comprehensive report on this meeting... when the whole hearing is available online via stream (and you can convert it to mp3 overnight if necessary).
So what these two surveys are telling you is that there's an inventory rebuild going on in the supply side of the economy in anticipation of increased demand, but the demand side isn't showing signs of increased demand. This should end well...
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 11/4/2009 - 2:25 pm
SNAFU wrote:
Guest Post: Will the Democrats Lose in 2010 (or 2012) Because They Won’t Pass Real Financial Reforms? « naked capitalism
In my more idealist moments (usually after a few glasses of wine) I think about how nice it would be if one of the two major parties imploded. But, then I remember their dumbasses....
You know NaRm, I think come 2012, there may be a real chance that a third party candidate may win the WH. The independent vote will decide. Implosion may happen, with or without dumb asses.
Btw., we need an icon for amoral scumbag, or just use the ?
a- their ability to act which I think is easier and b - their willingness to act . I fully agree that their willingness to act is in question which is why the inflationists have the better argument.
I think we are well within the range of 'noise' with these employment stats. In other words, they tell us nothing except that we have not had a gigantic drop or increase.
This is true of almost all stats lately - house prices, sales, GDP, profit levels...
I haven't seen too many blogs actually focus on the work Congress is doing;
Oddly enough, yesterday, my yoga instructor was fairly pissed off about "the banking mess" after she'd been reading Huffingtion Post (sp) for the last few days. She knows I'm "in banking" and was asking me some good questions about was is "going on". Perhaps the peasants are getting wind that somethings not right in Oz.
I fully agree that their willingness to act is in question which is why the inflationists have the better argument. - C
That's interesting, I would have said just the opposite. Which almost suggest we're at a fork in the decision tree. But then, as far as I can see the unwind is so massive, and the demographics look so bad going forward, that no amount of pump will stop the slide, aka Japan.
Manufactuerers got talked into increasing inventories and some consumers got talked into spending money they didn't have, such as cash for clunkers.
Suckers all.
here is the question- are independents deserting Obama because
a. They are worried about his spending and left leaning agenda (MSM view) or
b. They were looking for a different kind of politics - one in which the special interests didn't get to determine everything, the banksters didn't run everything and the average Joe caught a break. Since none of that has happened they have gone home and back to guns, gods and gays.
If both parties are going to be kleptocracies might as well hang out with the old crowd. Ironically this was IMO what he was trying to get at with his famous clinging to guns and god comment.
Binko (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 11/4/2009 - 4:25 pm
I work in manufacturing. And I don't believe for a second that manufacturing employment in increasing. The dual mantra in American industry right now is to cut costs by cutting labor and cut costs by outsourcing. It seems like our corporate masters don't even consider growth as a viable plan - instead it's all about increasing margins by cutting and chopping.
Sorry to hear it - the only good news here is that the cost-cutting is both an obvious and temporary fix. If we manage to hollow out completely any chance at moving toward (back to?) a manufacturing base to replace some of the lost FIRE, services, and tertiary eCONomy it will fall to bureaucracy bloat and social programs to keep us fed and off the streets.
Which is why he is so much more dangerous than Bush. His eloquence makes us put our guard down and distracts from actually looking at what he has done. According to his advisers- major accomplishment the "hate crimes law". While I certainly believe that there are certain acts that go beyond violence to the individual and are an attack on our democracy e.g. killing a policeman , Supreme Court justice and people in direct contrast to what the values of the Republic are - I don't think that it is anywhere near an even trade given his handouts to the financial institutions. Progressives are brain dead if they can;t figure that out.
So the stock futures are up on the promised low interest rate environment? And the home buyer credit gets pushed off to next week. "We're in for some chop."
'...some sort of mysterious Illuminati thing going on...
'Oh you mean the 'hoax' & 'rabble rousing' sites selling gold & survival gear...'Illuminati' is a term in some historical accounts...what we have is done pretty much in the open by people we see on TV...don't have the accounting of bailout money maybe...but the interest rates moves both up & down are in the public eye and in the public record as are many economic 'moves'...the obvious policies that result in dollar devaluation can be seen...cite the links you are referring to when you say 'Illuminati'...and we can see if they are legit sites and/or sources
They were looking for a different kind of politics - one in which the special interests didn't get to determine everything, the banksters didn't run everything and the average Joe caught a break. Since none of that has happened they have gone home and back to guns, gods and gays.
By independent, that would mean the 30% of the non Party dumbasses (the fix 70% split between the Republicrats).
The independent peasants are just bouncing off the only three choices they have. The Democrats (which the tried and are now disillusioned with), which only leaves the Republicans or not voting. The guns gods & gay peasants are probably not independents; they are the true-political-believer Republican dumbass hardcore - roughly 35%.
Conspiracies are common. They are prosecuted on a regular basis throughout the world resulting in many convictions.
9/11 was a successful conspiracy.
The assassination of Lincoln was a successful conspiracy.
Enron was a conspiracy.
Madoff was a conspiracy.
They are all around you!
If Obama turns out to be a widely recognized failure as prez, there will be societal costs for a few years to come, methinks. There was a lot more riding on this presidency than just another dem admin.
Progressives are brain dead if they can;t figure that out.
You can't convince a true-believer of anything that his brain can process. The brain is just a BS generator AND reality filter. It takes reality, twists it to match the existing BS and throws out the conflicting reality.
'Secrecy is killing the country.'
Monetary interest rate & money supply policies and Treasury 'stimulus' spending policies that are unsustainable are not working...haven't worked for other countries that have tried it...and end up in financial crises, currencies, deflation, bubble/bust cycles, currency/financial crises contagion, etc.
But it'd be nice to know where 'bailout' money went for sure...
"Which is why he is so much more dangerous than Bush."
hey lets talk after obama starts two wars and throws two fbi agents off his ranch for warning him about impending attacks
bush said , "ok you have covered your ass, now get offa my ranch"
look im as angry as anybody here about obama being in bed with the bankstas
to color his entire administation on this one addmittedly earthshaking issue, is to be guilty of simplistic thinking
and i know from reading your usually intelligent posts you are not...simplistic
at a press conference in st louis about 5 years ago bush hinted that worrying about whether or not the world immolates over global conflict may not be a concern cause after all armageddon is Gods will
Clearly, the Fed is using word processor boilerplate to say as little as possible from month to month, changing a word here, or a word there. They know the markets will be completely and pointlessly roiled by a misplaced semi-colon, so they try to make the statement as empty of real content as possible.
He's just a politician for the peasants. The squid decides what actions to take in the best interests of the nobility.
Au contraire, mon frere. Obama is a product of the elite classes. He may not have been "to the manor born", but he was adopted and nurtured by the liberal elite (overseas private schools, Harvard Law, etc.). All you have to do is look at the gargantuan amount of Wall Street $$$ behind his campaign,that will tell you everything you need to know about this guy.
Everything else about Obama is window dressing. The american public, the majority of which is slow but not stupid, is gradually figuring this out. The only people that will be left standing beside Obama in 12 months are the 20-30% hard-core delusional left-wingers... they believe in rainbows and unicorns and are completely disconnected from reality anyway so you can't take them seriously
The U.S. spending 'big bubble' growing now, continued sharp deflation in mant industries, and rapid U.S. dollar devaluation being stalked by currency speculators is happening before our very eyes...the 'dark forces' is an internet meme to make this thing more complicated and mysterious that it really is...
hey lets talk after obama starts two wars and throws two fbi agents off his ranch for warning him about impending attacks
You know, these "details" are correct (maybe) but that's not the point. The Dems win based on scaring you into voting for them. In the long long long long term (say 10 years) the ONLY think that matters is WHO get's the loot (other than Hu). The rest is all noise.
American citizens should have something in common beyond two parties scaring the hell out of them that the OTHER party will win. Beyond the constitution and who gets the loot, i'm not sure anything else matters.
Obama wont be rockin the lifeboats...he packed up the banksters on them with all the life preservers, and stayed aboard the Titanic. He's also out of signal flares, and the one ship that saw the last one is being chartered by Dick Fuld.
Yah, in theory. I wouldn't know tho, everything my brain as ever thought was BS.
LOL, very nice. Well it would seem we're trying to change the wrong thing then. If we were able to change the brain so it knows truth and stops reasoning on the basis of bullshit, it would start to interpret reality correctly. Curious thought.
'V' is a fictional conspiracy sci-fi saga but some people will think it's real...or like reality.
Better for folks to watch that as they lose their pensions & homes rather than something based in reality...
So, the OTHER party has nothing to do with this? Of course, I know the answer. You're the true-believer on the OTHER side.
What "other" party?? It's been a one-party system in this country since 1913, at least. You can call them Republicrats or Demopublicans, don't make no difference.
Good evening, Eastern Front. Allow me first to apologize for this interruption. I do, like many of you, appreciate the comforts of every day routine- the security of the familiar, the tranquility of repetition. I enjoy them as much as any bloke. But in the spirit of commemoration, thereby those important events of the past usually associated with someone's death or the end of some awful bloody struggle, a celebration of a nice holiday, I thought we could mark this November the 5th, a day that is sadly no longer remembered, by taking some time out of our daily lives to sit down and have a little chat. There are of course those who do not want us to speak. I suspect even now, orders are being shouted into telephones, and men with guns will soon be on their way. Why? Because while the truncheon may be used in lieu of conversation, words will always retain their power. Words offer the means to meaning, and for those who will listen, the enunciation of truth. And the truth is, there is something terribly wrong with this country, isn't there? Cruelty and injustice, intolerance and oppression. And where once you had the freedom to object, to think and speak as you saw fit, you now have censors and systems of surveillance coercing your conformity and soliciting your submission. How did this happen? Who's to blame? Well certainly there are those more responsible than others, and they will be held accountable, but again truth be told, if you're looking for the guilty, you need only look into a mirror. I know why you did it. I know you were afraid. Who wouldn't be? War, terror, disease. There were a myriad of problems which conspired to corrupt your reason and rob you of your common sense.
poic, what he (and many others) voted for was something entirely different from what we received. TARP money was supposed to get the banks lending again, not to be hoarded for their own purposes. Is that his fault?
If we were able to change the brain so it knows truth and stops reasoning on the basis of bullshit, it would start to interpret reality correctly. Curious thought.
But impossible. Living in a semi-psychotic, duplicitous, self-delusional state appears to be "normal" for large segments of the human population. It makes morals and social-structure much easier for the brains to handle. Always works for me, anyway.
The less the Fed says, the more the statement gets parsed for minutely small word changes, which is a negative feedback loop right there. (And it's only going to get worse as the 24/7 blogger cycle goes on. Gotta grab those eyeballs and earn the ad revenues.) The more people talk, the less gets said. Feh.
What "other" party?? It's been a one-party system in this country since 1913, at least. You can call them Republicrats or Demopublicans, don't make no difference.
Ok, as long as we're NOT accusing one "side" of the common party. Lots of one-sided LIBERAL bashing. LIBERAL are just nice dumbasses. "Conservatives" mean dumbasses. Each has their party, sycophants to guide them, and a nobility to worship. Each Party has a lock on 35% of the population.
apparently you've forgotten what the alternative was ~
I'm beginning to wonder how bad McCain could possibly have been. He definitely would have been a one termer, and might have focused on the economy instead of all this other stuff.
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 11/4/2009 - 5:02 pm
But impossible. Living in a semi-psychotic, duplicitous, self-delusional state appears to be "normal" for large segments of the human population. It makes morals and social-structure much easier for the brains to handle. Always works for me, anyway.
Yeah, you can't win this game and you can't quit playing. What kinda gin joint they runnin' here in Casino Naturae?
He definitely would have been a one termer, and might have focused on the economy instead of all this other stuff.
He can "focus" on the economy all he want. Until the squid problem is addressed there is no solution. You've got have a functional democracy first. And VOTING isn't a democracy. A democracy usually means a orderly change of POWER.
"poic, what he (and many others) voted for was something entirely different from what we received. TARP money was supposed to get the banks lending again, not to be hoarded for their own purposes. Is that his fault?"
Well you had pointed out it was before his time. I'm simply pointing at that as far as I remember the time-line both McCain and Obama were in the thick of the whole negotiations.
There was a whole lot of hoopla about McCain leaving the campaign trail to go to DC to get the ball rolling and then Obama jumped into the fray as well.
My point being it wasn't just GWB handling the tarp negotiations as far as I'm aware.
To 'save' the U.S. economy (and global economy) by letting the dollar spin into uncharted waters of a possible 'crisis' devaluation and government insolvency is one of these quagmires or puzzles that one can't make any sense of.
Save the big banks but lose the dollar to rapid devaluation and let the deficit spin out of control by more 'stimulus/bailouts'.
Doesn't make sense any more.
I think U.S. military funding might be at risk in this 'financial/currency crisis' scenario unfolding not in the shadows but in the open!
Just called to see whether a publication had gone out to finish a quiet title suit.
It was---in a box of files somewhere. I have some hope that it is not in a random file
box (actually loose paper box), but one devoted to Publishing in a local paper.
In case you were wondering, or not, the PODS option is about half the price of a full service move, something like 12k rather than 25k, from Oregon to New Hampshire. They certainly seem to have a good business plan.
A client has a good friend who is very high up in B of A. She was saying, they weren't
making any loans, so how could they make any money to stay in business. This is 2 degree
of separation gossip, but this client is prolly faithfully repeating what the friend said.
Here's what we would have had to look forward to, if McCain had been able...
AND, it's NOT McCain or Obama. We elect the ENTIRE Party. This obsession with THE Dear leader in Merica is crazy too. The Party is what's important, NOT the individual.
Concur. With what's going to come re currency devaluation, there's no way that we can have a funded military to the extent that we've had it. Look at the Soviet military and the Potemkin force that they became. I can only hope that the senior staff is giving serious consideration to how we rationally and safely wind down the commitments without things going BOOM.
but when it comes to the bankstas...they seem to own most of the prominent politicians
NOT just the bankstas, it starts at local politics. Developers purchase politicians, and the market of "smart amoral scumbags" picks who goes up the food chain. Those at the top, proved themselves at ALL levels.
Ok here is a nifty Liz scam for Dade County. You can file bk every 180 daze.
It's taking more than 180 days to schedule a Sale on the Courthouse steps which
is now inside the Courthouse.
Soooo, you wait til the last minute before the sale is scheduled, file bk, get kicked
out of bk ('cause after all, you don't wanna make the payments), get rescheduled
for sale after 180 days, file bk. Wash rinse repeat.
I see Bloomberg is blaming the end of day fall on the House passing the Expedited CARD Act. Given that the Udall bill (the companion bill in the Senate) has not even been scheduled for debate by the Senate Banking Committee yet, it will all become moot, as Dodd has only scheduled two weeks of hearings in November and he wants to take up his regulatory reform bill then. If any bill has legs, it will be Dodd's bill to freeze changes in finance charges until the original effective date of the CARD Act in February.
Personally I think the ongoing Wars need to be escalated or they need to get out because one of the problems in Vietnam was limping along half-assed for so long...and this is what's starting to happen now...so if the dollar tanks...raising troop levels and sending more needed resources (to Win) may be more of a challange as the dollar devalues and stimulus/bailout money goes to the too Big To Fail banks, etc...national priorities are screwed up now...getting out of the U.S. military occupations that are dragging on forever may not be a bad thing as the U.S. currency devalues quickly...and the nation teeters on bankruptcy...
......I have had to listen about politics since I was 6. Much of what I heard I dismissed, but still remembered. The early 50s had communists under every rock and branch of government. The National Council of Churches, the John Birch Society, The American Communist Party, Get the US Out of the UN, and since; countless wars that tried to camouflage themselves as "police actions" or "skirmishes", two Presidents impeached (Nixon quit before he actually was impeached), no more gold standard, no more rule of law, and no more amateur politicians - they're all mostly highly paid professionals now and all attorneys. Seeing the march forward, there is, quite simply, no fixing this mess. Anyone who thinks differently is seriously delusional. Regardless the number of pundits, graphs and experts saying otherwise.....The End Is Near Get prepared. There will be nothing worse than your last feeling of "Ohhhhh Shiiiiit!"
Yep. I'm secretly controlling you all with evil mind waves that zip through your laptop and eat your thoughts. In service to my alien reptilian masters.
Anywho, kinda signing off for some time. I'll be moving, and not posting much. Take care all, and keep your hats shiny! Bye!
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 11/4/2009 - 3:14 pm
* reply
* Ignore user
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Here's what we would have had to look forward to, if McCain had been able...
AND, it's NOT McCain or Obama. We elect the ENTIRE Party. This obsession with THE Dear leader in Merican is crazy too. The Party is what's important, NOT the individual.
O was just the wooden horse; the real reason we elected the horse, was to get Rahm E. in the white house and in power! imho!
Everything else about Obama is window dressing. The american public, the majority of which is slow but not stupid, is gradually figuring this out. The only people that will be left standing beside Obama in 12 months are the 20-30% hard-core delusional left-wingers... they believe in rainbows and unicorns and are completely disconnected from reality anyway so you can't take them seriously.
No, that's the soft inner skin. The hard core thinks Obama is a lightweight and is giving him a few more months. But as things get worse, they'll cut him loose and the "cracks in the Republican Party" meme will be as nothing...
The hard core thinks we should burn Wall Street, send health care execs out to work in inner city health clinics in blue-denim uniforms and Mao hats, and tax the upper classes to the bone for all rentier-style income. They don't let us out much.
McCain had known baggage in his incestuous relationship with the bankers. Voting for McCain would've been giving him the high 5 for the S&L failures. Keating 5 anyone?
i held small town small time local elected office and turned down envelopes of cash
Yeah, it's normal part of life. Peasant dumbasses NEVER believe their nobility is guilt tho. That's one place eurpeans have an advantage. Probably because of the war. They somewhat know that all politics and politician are scum. Plus, their dumbasses are spread around between more parties.
I doubt that public sentiment is going to permit escalation, especially as the public anger at the admin grows. Don't know for sure, but wonder if some of J6P are starting to draw the dots between the various government (in)actions and just losing faith in the anointed (appointed?) one.
OT - but volume on TWM (Ultra Short Small Cap) is up 42+% today. Methinks that others are starting to reload and pressure is building on R2K. I can only hope...
The hard core thinks we should burn Wall Street, send health care execs out to work in inner city health clinics in blue-denim uniforms and Mao hats, and tax the upper classes to the bone for all rentier-style income. They don't let us out much.
Rich if your lurking what is your opinion on PM's at this stage?
My opinion on PMs is to hold up to my targets, which is $20 on silver and $1,200 on gold, and then begin to lighten.
Remember that PMs are "stores of value" to millions of people around the world, especially in Asia. In general, Asians are a lot better PM traders than we are, even if they never went to college and just work all day in a rice paddy.
They will release their gold for currency to spend at some point, and I'm betting it's somewhere around $1,200. But I will probably hold some GLD above $1,200, just to stay in the game.
Silver is a little different, in that it's a thinner market, there's not as much above-ground stock, and there's consistent industrial demand apart from jewelry. In a bad economy, silver jewelry can gain on gold jewelry. So, I might hold silver a little higher above $20 just to see if the shorts get squeezed big. But my main buy-and-hold for silver is SLW. I just fundamentally believe in the company and what they are doing. The opportunity to control 40 million ounces of silver a year with almost no overhead or employees is pretty amazing. The acquisitions they are making look great, and they have the cash to fund them.
Yeah...this friggin' clusterme$$ may end up being a U.S. 'national security issue' and I'm an 'anti-war' type believer in most cases (unless we are attacked of course) but the troops need our support as they say and this is starting to sound dangerously precarious...fast policy action is needed to stop this insanity of historically 'failed' policies and prevent a U.S. dollar collapse or a national bankruptcy IMO...
The only people that will be left standing beside Obama in 12 months are the 20-30% hard-core delusional left-wingers.
The hard-core wingers won't be standing with him. Maybe Queen Michelle and their 2 princesses, oh and Gollum Sucks, CitiHeist, Bogusbank of Amerista, and JPRigormortis will be attending him. God Save the Court Jester
Merica is hopeless. It's the people that don't want democracy. It too difficult for them. I personally think this democracy stuff is just an aberration anyway, it's completely unnatural.
The squid system we have, and Hu has, is the natural system.
Out of curiosity, do you give any credence to the JPM/silver shorting that I'm reading here and there. Or do you place that more in the conspiracy theory mode?
We agree that it was important. Are you suggesting that there are no litmus tests that can be applied to a President or anybody else. That to draw line (whatever that line is) by which you judge somebody is "simplistic thinking". .
In my mind the financial crisis provided an opportunity of (a) leveling with the American people and working towards a new future (b) recreating the past. Obama elected the latter and with destroyed the entire basis on which I voted for him. Just the fact that he would choose to pay more attention to Geithner/Summers rather than Volcker/Warren is a clear indication of who has captured his mind. I can understand Obama nominating Geithner in November 2008 -it was important to give Wall Street somebody they knew. When he persisted with Geithner the tax evader he lost the moral high ground. In my mind setting aside land in Montana, Hate crimes and other tiny stuff can possibly make up for his failure to exact a price from the financial services industry.
As to Bush starting two wars- do you think it was not legitimate to go into Afghanistan? Even Iraq- although I don't agree with the decision I can understand how somebody could believe that it was the right thing to do. My bigger problems with both those wars is how they were conducted. It was the incompetence, the mismatching of strategic threat and resources.
left standing beside Obama in 12 months are the 20-30% hard-core delusional left-wingers..
I don't think you understand the politics of the left very well. They will have left him long before the "oh he is soooo nice , doesn't he make great speeches" crowd.
homedad,
Yes this mess just really hit me today and how serious it really is...the 'audit the fed' stuff is minutiae now as the dollar train to oblivion rolls down the tracks.
I wish I hadn't even read the relevant 'financial/currency crises contagion' research because I can see now the inevitability of this credit/currency destruction in the largest nation it has ever occured in...but the global economy is at risk of collapse here also...when I got off the 'hoax' nonsense sites and starting checking into some real research of past economic collapses...
I could see the similiarities in national economic/political declines...and it made it more real...what is going to actually happen...
leveling with the American people and working towards a new future
Perhaps, but no existing Party can level with the Merican people, because "the people" couldn't handle it. Politicians are MASTERS at knowing "the people" and using them (edit:) and aren't going to risk their current power for truth.
I can understand Obama nominating Geithner in November 2008
Obama didn't nominate Geathner, the Party did. Bush didn't start any wars. The Party did.
crazyv,
How is the continued U.S. 'military funding' going to go if the dollar and the U.S. economy goes into 'shock and awe' from deflationary forces and currency decline speculative attacks? Any ideas?
The ignore button is your friend. I haven't heard anybody disagree and I didn't start the topic. Only trying to finish it. In MY opinion, democracy in Merica is dead. We aren't. That's reality.
As to Bush starting two wars- do you think it was not legitimate to go into Afghanistan? Even Iraq- although I don't agree with the decision
Absolutely, the poppy production needed to be ramped-up to keep the poor and hopeless drugged. As for Iraq, well, that was to squelch Saddam's middle finger attempt of not accepting the dollar for oil. Oh and the MIC needed a war for profits. Haliburton/Cheney, Carlyle/Bush.......
i agree with almost (maybe all?) everything you said about litmus test obama and the bankstas
i have said so repeatedly here at hoocoodanode and i repeat obama has failed, and or is in bed, and or is held in the orbit of the bankstas oligarchy
as for the wars
yes the wars
if it is not plane to you here and now that bush's war in iraq was a lie, a mistake and a deed done as a matter of greed and ego, it is not for me to assume the mantle of one who might elucidate those ways
as for afghanistan...8 years ago we should have gone balls to the wall and hunted down and killed bin laden and wiped out his entire cadre
now the afghan people begin to see us as nothing more than latest on a long list of foreign invaders
we are hemorrhaging precious lives and money my friend...it cost over 1 million dollars a year to train place and maintain one us soldier in afghanistan
last year we were spending nearly 1/2 billion dollars per day in iraq in direct costs and maybe that much more in delayed costs (veterans medical benefits, equipment replacement ,interest on debt as the war in iraq was fought entirely on the credit card!)
bin laden is laughing in a cave somewhere in waziristan has we bleed men and money, bogged down in the GWOT
what the uck is the cia for if not to travel to afghanistan and wack those sobs...and 1/10th the cost and with the loss of far fewer lives
Is Obama just Bush's 3rd term or was Bush just Obama's pre-terms? I honestly don't see what GWB would have done different to date. That includes nominating an Hispanic woman to the Supreme Court (just not this Hispanic woman).
Yes absolutely and all the others who believed that garbage. The banks have acted exactly as I predicted they would. It takes an incredibly dumb man ( I don't believe that he is that) or a captive of the banks to have believed that. the in an uncertain economic environment with a bunch of questionable loans already on the books that banks would choose to double down. While you are teetering on the edge you don't decided to take on more risk to push you over- you walk back from the edge. The banks doing this are not venal just rational.
If Obama was really serious about kicking starting lending - he could have expanded the SBA ,allowed FNM/FRE to purchase corporate loans, he could have incorporated 5 new banks with a 50% government ownership. The 300Billion spent on the banks would have provided plenty of capital to start making loans.
Just because somebody who wants to borrow money is denied a loan doesn't mean that the banks are unwilling to make loans. The bigger problem is that there are few credit worthy borrowers around based on more realistic assessment of the economic risks. Unfortunately borrowers still want banks to behave in an irrational manner and lend to them even if the bank has little chance of being repaid. That is not a credit crunch.
NaRm,
It ain't really the 'natural system'...that's Social Darwinism which was supposedly discredited long ago although it has actually been institutionalized to some extent.
Government and even the economy can be structured (created) entities. It's a Myth that what we have is simply 'natural'(evolutionary)...it is man-made by laws and no laws (deregulation). It is manipulated and manufactured.
NOTaREALmerican- think another big difference the left is better informed but allows their heart to rule their head. The right is just outright ignorant.
Don't know if already posted:
House speeds up credit card reform act - Yahoo! Finance
I would guess this means lots and lots of rate hikes in the next 25 days.
No so good for J6P especially when China repegs.
There. Fixed that for ya.
Seriously, this is more China's problem than ours. As disposable cash drops and US savings increases the Chinese need their export economy to remain attractive to US consumers. I don't see them acting any more rashly than in small baby steps.
which was supposedly discredited long ago although it has actually been institutionalized to some extent.
Nothing in social "science" discredited in practice. Only in opinion. We're about to see just how "discredited" it really is as OUR squid and Hu's squid negotiate terms, with their peasants as collateral.
crazv,
The so-called 'right' is not ignorant about their pension declines, foreclosures, unemployment, loss of earnings, loss of dollar purchasing power, etc. and neither are people on the so-called 'left'...
One of my clients discovered that his interest rate had been raised to 15.9% he's on
the edge anyway. He called them up and told them that they'd better lower it to the 3.2%
that he was promised and credit the diff against principal. Or. He isn't paying.
Like gov't overtaxation producing less revenues, hiking up the interest rates may cause
fewer to pay.
pension declines, foreclosures, unemployment, loss of earnings
Yes, when THIS drowns out the fornicating harlots, the 5th male appendage, and global warming, there might be some changes. He Hu controls the loot, rules over all. It will be interesting too see how it comes about. I'm not seeing this YET tho.
I"s Obama just Bush's 3rd term or was Bush just Obama's pre-terms? I honestly don't see what GWB would have done different to date...."
ok heres a shoirt list
change in cafe standards
limiting strip and mountain top mining for coal
adhering to epa water and air quality standards
allowing doctors to prescribe medical marijuana and not prosecuting soft drugs as if they were schedule 1
efforts to get isreal to stop putting settlements in the west bank
efforts to get palestinians in gaza and west bank to reconcile under abbas
gay rights
an ed to the intermediary student loan banks that skimmed 2 or three percent profit on loans that were essentially gov money and default repayments guaranteed by taxpayers while bankstas cronies got guaranteed returns
a departure from the policy threatening ito invade another country pre-emptively when they have not attacked us first or are not immediately about to attack us ..
an end to using torture to coerce confessions from suspected enemy
efforts to close guantanamo and re settle the portion who were picked up and held there in error
regulation of the credit card industry
public option healthcare
i could go on and on
obama is not bush,,, maybe better in some ways...maybe worse...but not the same....face it
crazyv - I agree with much of what you say, especially with regard to a partially nationalized bank. My preference would have been for a fully nationalized bank, but with respect to the credit crisis you mentioned, the problem was credit for small business, as I recall, and I can just imagine the outcry if anything like nationalization had been attempted. The R's would have had a field day.
I think foreign policy is not like friendly golf game- you don't get mulligans. I agree with you Afghanistan is a lost cause now. However, both the wars I believe could have been prosecuted differently and we would have had a much better outcome. It is clear to me from reading several books written by people who actually understand the region that following the departure of the Taliban in 2001/2002 a well constructed aid and security package would have made all the difference. The people of Afghanistan were tired after 30 years of fighting and would have welcomed the US presence. Instead they got more of the same - shades of Obama supporters.
In Iraq - the same thing was true. Instead of standing by as the law and order situation broke down if the United States had assumed the responsibility that is was required to under the Geneva convention as the occupying power once again we would have built up good will with the Iraqi people. We forget now that 2003/2004 was actually quite quiet in Iraq. Our problem in Iraq was that we never had enough troops to keep the peace. I don't think that anybody has provided any evidence to indicate that Bush didn't believe that Iraq didn't have WMD's. I think they were absolutely convinced that they were there even if they had to fabricate evidence to convince the rest of the world.-sort of like the cop who knows the person is guilty but doesn't have the evidence. Not often that I agree with Cheney - but it is true that if Iraq did have nuclear weapons and there was a chance that they could fall into the hands of terrorists 9/11presented a completely different risk assessment. Up until that point terrorism was always in support of a political goal. Those political goals constrained the magnitude of the risk. 9/11 was nihilist attack designed to generate the maximum damage with no real political goal. If you recall even during the IRA bombings of Britain they often gave a warning to the authorities to minimize deaths. My problem is that if this was an existential threat to the United States why would you fight it with 135,000 troops. Much of the explosives used against us were from stockpiles that we didn't have enough troops to secure. One wonders what would have happened had they actually found WMD's
Clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right, here I am, Stuck in the middle with you.
I once worked for a company where that was the employee motto. They were experts in 'that f--ked up the last 4 times we tried it.. it just cant' f--k up THIS time !'
~splat
obama is not bush,,, maybe better in some ways...maybe worse...but not the same....face it
I agree 100%. But, if you blowup the financial system, it's ALL lost when the Fascist come roaring back with a vengeance. This is the one thing I simply do NOT understand about "the Progressives". The BIGGER you make the government and more bureaucratic it becomes, the MORE concentrated the loot gets, the easier it is for the smart amoral scumbags to capture it. Your ONLY defense against them is decentralization. But, Socialists (progressives) and Fascists both agree BIGGER is always better. Until the OTHER side get control.
Maybe some recombinant swine flu will cull the peasants (And I don't say this to be funny)...can you imagine the social welfare liability 'bubble' that is growing out of this economic decline...you talk about unfunded liabilities of government...a government that has given a lot of the money away already...the growing numbers of unemployed...if the dollar doesn't tank from the 'expectations' generated by the investment vultures, insiders cashing out, and the corporate raiders...it (the HAS to tank in trying to fund 'social welfare' for the 'lost generations' coming into the financial Crash...the babyboomers are going to go 'boom'!
Although the relationship is noisy, the decline in the non-manufacturing employment index suggests that the October improvement in manufacturing employment will be more than offset by a decline in service employment.
I would expect the ISM-services to be more 'job sensitive' - the service sector is a lot larger and more labor intensive than is mfg. and has been since the 80s. Bump in services activity means a big bump in services employment [see FIRE]. Drop in services activity means big drop in services employment. Big bump in mfg activity means a small bump in employment [see 'lights out factory']. They are geared differently... mfg has a lot more 'operational leverage' [capital per worker].
So we've gone through the post-agrarian age, the post-industrial age and now into the post-service-sector age... what comes next?
So we've gone through the post-agrarian age, the post-industrial age and now into the post-service-sector age... what comes next?
The Post-employment age. A large unemployable core who do not have specialized skills. The employed base becomes a minority section of society with extremely niche specialized skills which are impractical or cost-ineffective to offshore.
~splat
With McCain, there was always the chance that he would snap and go BullMoose on us. Obama's too smooth and he follows 's script too well. Things will only get interesting if Obama's popularity sinks low enough that Dems on the fringes feel safe to start unloading on the con job Wall Street is doing to our country.
Bush left the honorific for Obama and now you want to fault him for it? The new standards Obama signed were instigated by Bush in 2006. Besides he made some very smart changes to vehicle emissions and CAFE in 2004 with sulfur and weight exemptions. I don't know whether those were started in Carter or whenever.
Most of the things on your list have similar back stories although the strip mining bit is a true shame. How many days until Gitmo is closed?
Crazyv,
Once the U.S. took out Hussein (the old 'friend' of the U.S.)...the U.S. should have been done there...maybe there was weapons of MD or maybe there wasn't but Hussein was gone...what has staying achieved in reality...Iraq is still dangerour and unstable...the world is still dangerous...now there is Pakistan to worry about...it's like chasing a phantom...now you see it now you don't...the 'enemy' has been put into the 'minds' of Americans by selling the endless wars and occupations as a way to win against radical Islam...but in the end these expansionist policies perpetuate the resistance to occupations IMO...
dryfly - The reality age, complete with nasty sharp pointy teeth? Yeah, right. Don't you wish.
A major flight to alternate reality escapism, which will follow the disillusion that breaks when CONfidence in central banks (the last faith we have left) to manipulate the markets is challenged by repeated public failure. That's my take on the progression of anyway. Then maybe scientific dictatorship, a society where power runs experts and experts run everything.
once again much of what you say i agree with just above
but at the middle where you say "just like obama supporters"??? what that doesnt fit what do you mean huh
second disagreement...you are mistaken if you think that bush didnt know better about iraq and WMD
read treasury secretary oneills book "the price of loyalty" (suskind i think co authored)...this is a hard core conservative republican who says bush said from day one to his cabinet joint chiefs etc..."find me a way to get into iraq..." bush was thirsty for a war
in a series of interviews late 90s bush said point blank... i wont make the mistake my father did...im goin all the way in and be a big war time president cause that will give me the street cred to do what ever i want...words to that effect
splat (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 11/4/2009 - 6:07 pm
So we've gone through the post-agrarian age, the post-industrial age and now into the post-service-sector age... what comes next?
The Post-employment age. A large unemployable core who do not have specialized skills. The employed base becomes a minority section of society with extremely niche specialized skills which are impractical or cost-ineffective to offshore.
~splat
That and growth of any industry that allows you to find specialized expert X and connect him to arbitrary firm Y, or better yet, to transfer the knowledge base of X into a system that can be used by firm Y. And of course, a way for expert X to find firm Y, though I suspect that will become less and less common.
dryfly - we seem to be in the "info-tainment" age. Movies, video games, sports, singing and dancing contests, real fall of Rome bread and circuses stuff.
I call it the post-Warhol economy.
splat- nope, info-tainment cannot possibly support "full employment." For every Hannah Montana there are 300 million unemployed people standing around chewing gum.
The fact is there is going to have to be an unwinding and reduction in U.S. forces in the Middle East as the U.S. dollar and economy enter the Third World instability and insolvency that has allowed serial speculative attacks in the past 15 years or so on various 'emerging' nations...the bounty for speculators and investment vultures just keep getting bigger and bigger...asking for, promoting, or believing in U.S. troop surges now is not realistic and maybe even delusional...our priorities have been with bailing out the Too Big To Fail banks globally...that's the reality...
That and growth of any industry that allows you to find specialized expert X and connect him to arbitrary firm Y, or better yet, to transfer the knowledge base of X into a system that can be used by firm Y. And of course, a way for expert X to find firm Y, though I suspect that will become less and less common.
Yup, point employment, short term contract only for the skills as needed. Allows for the removal of investment in staff development and price competition between the providers of service X. Development of skills becomes an expense of the service provider.
~splat
threetorches (profile) wrote on Wed, 11/4/2009 - 6:15 pm
dryfly - we seem to be in the "info-tainment" age. Movies, video games, sports, singing and dancing contests, real fall of Rome bread and circuses stuff.
Yes. Saying "alternate reality escapism" was a little too forward, I guess.
Then maybe scientific dictatorship, a society where power runs experts and experts run everything.
Hey I don't know... I just asked the question - seriously.
My wife also has an MS in Mfg but applies the 'lean principles' to office operations [and that really is what services are]... we talk a lot about it. There is so much 'muda' in office operations you could fire 2/3 to 3/4s of the people in them today and not skip a beat IF the place was structured lean and its coming. Middle managers who are not also 'experts' in something are absolutely toast - just a matter of time.
It is really is coming people. Too much money on the table to not happen.
If you don't touch the product or sit in front of the paying customer or actually provide the service - you are probably unnecessary. As conjure would say - 'Have a nice day'.
So we've gone through the post-agrarian age, the post-industrial age and now into the post-service-sector age... what comes next?
As is so often the case Douglas Adams has the answer:
The History of every major Galactic Civilization tends to pass through three distinct and recognizable phases, those of Survival, Inquiry and Sophistication, otherwise known as the How, Why and Where phases.
For instance, the first phase is characterized by the question "How can we eat?", the second by the question "Why do we eat?" and the third by the question, "Where shall we have lunch?"
"...asking for, promoting, or believing in U.S. troop surges now is not realistic and maybe even delusional...our priorities have been with bailing out the Too Big To Fail banks globally...that's the reality..."
OTOH, the international situation is looking more and more uncertain. The matter of Iran is beginning to spill over into US-Russian relations in an ominous way. One hopes the powers will maintain control.
But I could be wrong about the opinions expressed above and the U.S. will go the route of complete militarization and more military adventurism in response to economic decline as has happened to other nations in the past facing hyperinflation or deflationary economic collapse...either way militarization may be a way to preserve the State in some form...
Middle managers who are not also 'experts' in something are absolutely toast - just a matter of time.
I've already witnessed this happening. The remaining staff were ALL experienced and had significant skills and background in at least 4 or more areas. The folks who were super-specialized in just one specific facet of the biz.. BOOM.. gone.
~splat
' The History of every major Galactic Civilization tends to pass through three distinct and recognizable phases, those of Survival, Inquiry and Sophistication, otherwise known as the How, Why and Where phases.
For instance, the first phase is characterized by the question "How can we eat?", the second by the question "Why do we eat?" and the third by the question, "Where shall we have lunch?" '
The fourth question - courtesy of a science fiction writer I read recently (first name Bruce) - What do they have that we want?
There's probably a fifth question: ' Whom do we eat for lunch?'
Crazyv,
If you take your premise on Iraq seriously, we should have gone into Iran, not Iraq. Iran's pursuit of nuclear was/is well-known; while even I suspected Saddaam had buried a few cans of WMD, not many believed this was a serious threat.
Not that I think we should have gone after Iran. But while dilly-dallying with a land under which oil was buried, not WMDs (remember "This war will pay for itself!"--Cheney), we got as our reward a nuclear Iran and North Korea. Would the outcome have been the same without the invasion? Maybe, maybe not. But it would have saved a chunk of money, although that pain in the rear Sadaam would still be around.
Listen, and understand. That squid is out there.
It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear.
And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are bankrupt.
Thanks Rob - I knew you'd have the answer though I thought it might be '42'.
That's a different answer, some say to the ultimate question. You know, like; "How many hungry manufacturers have you found who can wind my 2 1/2 axis over mandrel composite auto frames?"
WASHINGTON (AP) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. has agreed to a settlement worth more than $700 million over federal regulators' charges that it made unlawful payments to friends of public officials to win municipal bond business in Jefferson County, Ala.
The Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday announced the settlement with JPMorgan, which canceled interest-rate swap contracts with the county worth $700 million in March. The move lowers the county's bond debt to about $3.2 billion from $3.9 billion, but officials had no immediate comment on whether that was enough to help the county avoid filing what would be the largest municipal bankruptcy ever.
If my math is correct, the fine citizens of Jefferson County, AL owe about $4853 to a squid-like creature calling itself Jamie.
NaRA- the average unskilled types will make and consume illegal drugs, I thought that was clear by now? And after awhile they will become stock for the prosecution-and-prison industry.
That or they will join the military. Heck, why can't they do both? The rest of us will watch "Cops and War" on TV.
Yesterday, Elliot Spitzer said that the White House’s defense of the financial status quo will give Republicans powerful ammunition in the 2010 elections.
Democratic cheerleader Markos Moulitsas (the “Kos” behind Daily Kos) wrote the following about the Democratic losses in several state elections:
Democratic turnout collapsed. This is a base problem, and this is what Democrats better take from tonight:
… If you water down reform in favor of Blue Dogs and their corporate benefactors, you will lose votes…
If you forget why you were elected — … financial services … reform — you will lose votes.
Tonight proved conclusively that we’re not going to turn out just because you have a (D) next to your name, or because Obama tells us to. We’ll turn out if we feel it’s worth our time and effort to vote, and we’ll work hard to make sure others turn out if you inspire us with bold and decisive action.
The choice is yours. Give us a reason to vote for you, or we sit home.
People elected Obama in the hope that he would be different from Bush. But in the most important ways, he is just continuing Bushand Clinton’s (think repeal of Glass-Steagall) worst policies.
Both the Republican and Democratic party leadership have become lapdops for the big banks and the status quo. Neither are open to real reform or change.
The Democrats haven’t broken up the too big to fails. They haven’t restored Glass-Steagall. They haven’t really reigned in credit default swaps. They haven’t pushed for honest accounting or forced the giants to put their toxic SIV-hidden assets back on their books.
People are sick and tired of both parties’ catering to the big boys. Indeed, given last night’s election results and the Dems’ utter failure to institute any real financial reform, trend forecaster Gerald Calente’s prediction that a third party candidate will win the 2012 presidential election is sounding a little less crazy.
The bankruptcy courts ran night and day. We were that close to going out forever.
But there was one man who taught us to fight, to storm the wire of the camps, to smash those squid motherfuckers into junk. He turned it around. He brought us back from the brink. His name is CR. Your son, Sarah, your unborn son.
I always just hope there will be bi-lateral or multi-lateral weapons & military reduction programs from cost cutting and funding reductions...dream on...the theme in the 60's was that the generals were bumbling 'idiots'...the idiot theory...
Yeah, but we need to do it with out inconveniencing the above average "expert" people, say - having a nice evening out. Siege isn't a good concept. Have your people call my people, I think we can work on this.
" pavel - '...more and more uncertain.'
on U.S. - Russia relations.
Why... is Russia arming Iran? Or just backing them? "
Russia always threatens to arm Iran. But, to my understanding, the question is whether or not Russia will support a boycott of Iran.
There are also outstanding issues involving the Russian sphere of influence, which the West can in turn use as leverage. It's just been announced, for example, that the US will hold military exercise in the Baltic next year.
If WWIII is really looming as the neo-Lib and neo-Con 'hawks' presume...then STOP wasting all the friggin' fiat money on failed Big Banks and worthless toxic financial waste...please...
If WWIII is really looming as the neo-Lib and neo-Con 'hawks' presume...then STOP wasting all the friggin' fiat money on failed Big Banks and worthless toxic financial waste...please...
Unless "they" know isn't not going to be quite ww3, but just - maybe - Badistan squared; and they need enough loot to buy some quiet island someplace, like New Zealand. So, the squid is purposeful.
Pavel, I am afraid that region of the world is in for more troubled times ahead.
The recent turmoil in Iran, along with the Russian response to the Georgia situation, Russian control of European nat gas and energy supplies, our presence in Iraq, Afghanistan, and several of the other 'stans, it all adds up to a volatile and dangerous brew.
The biggest difference that I have observed between B/O is the energy. The last two were obsessed, one with war and one with sex. It appears history will tell us sex on the mind was much better than war on the mind.
Didn't you see those two semi's pass by? Our super secret spy agency (no, even MORE secret than the one you just thought of - as I'm working for them and monitoring your thoughts I know what you are thinking - anyway, we're) keeping track of these semi's now. They're in Iran. 5th & L street.
It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear.
And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are bankrupt.
Oh thank goodness. I'm almost there. What a relief.
"Pavel, I am afraid that region of the world is in for more troubled times ahead.
The recent turmoil in Iran, along with the Russian response to the Georgia situation, Russian control of European nat gas and energy supplies, our presence in Iraq, Afghanistan, and several of the other 'stans, it all adds up to a volatile and dangerous brew."
Listen, and understand. That squid is out there.
It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear.
And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are bankrupt...rinse and repeat
" It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear.
And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are bankrupt.
Oh thank goodness. I'm almost there. What a relief. "
If you're bankrupt it'll offer you cash for organs. It doesn't stop EVER.
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 11/4/2009 - 6:32 pm
pavel.chichikov wrote:
The siege of Leningrad.
Yeah, but we need to do it with out inconveniencing the above average "expert" people, say
That's easy - teach them that they are special, give them incomes and positions in society that reflect this notion, and a suprisingly large number of them will cease to care what happens to those who came from inferior wombs or made bad choices with their lives.
Mommy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Man, markets all dropping like a BRICK.
Eric wrote:
She's behind the woodshed with
, kicking the green out of 
.
66% R squared isn't that noisy for an economic series correlation
Kinda like rising oil prices negate the goodness of quantitative diseasing.
Today reminds me of when I used to trade TASR.....seems like they had a split every month (not really but it made for action like this).....like the hedge fund who sold out his entire position just before lunch and then came back after an intra-day split was announced and could just only sit and cry about it. I forgot who it was but I remember it well.
Today being the reverse of that.
Ciao
MS
Rich if your lurking what is your opinion on PM's at this stage?
If those surveys had been the other way around I am sure we would have people saying - who cares about manufacturing we are a service economy.
...the October improvement in manufacturing employment will be more than offset by a decline in service employment. - CR
How much more-- dollar for dollar?
I wonder why this ISM report isn't plastered all over the news, like the other one?
Re: Rosethorn
I kind of think of it the other way, and I think recent news supports this view. There will be less and less ability to support JP bond sales, forcing JP gov't bond rates to rise. This will mess with the JP government's ability to pay back obligations, or borrow further. Beyond there, kind of a crap shoot. Printing could occur, or austerity. Either way, bad things await.
Stocks dropping fast, S&P is now negative. The dollar is obviously still down. What the heck happened?
selling volume on the SPY is pretty heavy for the last 20 minutes or so...
Ciao
MS
What % of the service industry is covered by UE insurance?
Too bad eCONomists haven't used a scatter plot to check out the validity of the Philips curve.
We have way too much junk eCONomics.
There's a tiny clue in the FED statement that hints about watching for another clue. The below max in agency debt the Fed plans to buy of $175 billion versus the max of $200 billion is a baby step in draining funds that the Fed spoon fed to directed sections of the market during the height of the financial crisis.
It will be interesting to see if the Fed sterilizes this drain with $25 billion in Treasury security purchases. Or does the Fed really believe it can pull this money from the markets? Stay tuned. This might provide some insight into how the Fed will handle any further drains of the special funding.
ill ballpark that as a -300k jobs, plus 25k for manuf, and 25k for govt, from stimulus, netting out another quarter million jobs lost for OCT...anyone want to take the under?
I wonder how many cagey Argentineans exchanged their paper money for the barbarous at about this time 8 years ago, when it was available @ just 300 Pesos per ounce?
FOMC message was remarkably brief, less to parse and not much hope in it. Disappointment leading to a certain droopiness.
scone, there is a wide variation, but the center would be a small increase in manufacturing employment (instead of losing 50,000 jobs per month), more than offset by about an extra 80,000 or so lost service sector jobs. But remember there is a lot of variability - but anyone revising their employment forecast up because of the first report should probably revise it back down because of the service report.
noob goldberg, yeah - the manufacturing employment report was everywhere - and for good reason - but I couldn't find a single article pointing out it was offset by this report.
best wishes
What this tells me is that ISM is offset by 3 points with its neutral reading. ISM 53 = neutral.
crazyv (profile) wrote on Wed, 11/4/2009 - 3:50 pm
If those surveys had been the other way around I am sure we would have people saying - who cares about manufacturing we are a service economy.
Instead they get a little cognitive dissonance. I like it.
Yes, that's a good summary. I agree, there's no way to know how the govt will react, and that either path will be difficult.
shill-
That may go right along with the supposed test of the reverse repo. a few weeks ago.
It couldn't handle a "test" of 100B so we were told.
Who knows what they have planned...they act like they don't.
Ciao
MS
Well, so much for that rally.
The ones they sample - probably all of it.
But it raises the question of what is happening to the underground economy? IS it weaker based on the assumption that a lot of folks involved in that are part of the discretionary income economy or is it stronger as more people have decided to work off the books? I lean towards the former.
a small increase in manufacturing employment (instead of losing 50,000 jobs per month), more than offset by about an extra 80,000 or so lost service sector jobs.- CR
I'm thinking the manufacturing jobs pay better than the service jobs, on average, so you'd need a bigger loss of service jobs to match manufacturing, dollar for dollar. Which affects spending, local taxes, etc.
Those Argentineans that had a little foresight can now sell their barbarous for well over 3,000 Pesos today...
ummm.... aren't there way more people employed in the service sector than manufacturing, so you would expect employment to be more highly correlated with service sector employment than manufacturing - don't need a graph to understand that
the numbers should have no impact no the co-relation. It would be like saying that an indicator in the US will work better than it does in Sweden because we have more people employed.
...the October improvement in manufacturing employment will be more than offset by a decline in service employment. - CR
What percentage of non-farm payrolls do these (manufacturing and service sector) represent? I'm always surprised that we still have as many employed in manufacturing these days.
edit: rm-rf, jinx
Note: There is a limited amount of data for the ISM non-manufacturing index (only back to July 1997).
Because that's when we determined that making real stuff is for foreigners?
And that's ball game. Markets teensy bit up, except Nasdaq, which is prolly INTC gettin' a whoppin' from the Cuomo family.
FYI Kid Dynamite's World: A Sit Down With Senior Treasury Officials - Part I
This blogger has a very detailed write up of the "secret" blogger-Treasury meeting...worth a read.
Now...back to work
Everybody keeps talking about what a difficult the job the Fed has. I actually think that they have easiest job that they have had in years. They can impact the most important rate - long term rates without ever having to use the most politically charged rate (Fed funds) . The level at which they bleed of their assets gives them a degree of flexibility and opacity that they have never had. Plus with all the reporting delays and obfuscation we might not even know that they had done anything until much after the fact.
credit-
you get the feeling that it's now over?.......I'm certainly not betting on it but sometimes you get a feeling about where the big boys are....
and no I didn't use the force whoever that was yesterday...
Ciao
MS
Did someone break there nose or get a black eye today jostling for the exit?
rosethorn wrote:
Interesting. good link.
MS wrote:
You mean the stock run? The
run? Or something more sinister?
please correct me if I am wrong but employment is
manufacting employment + service employment + govt employment = total employment
if for example 50% of employment is service and only 20% is manufacturing than a 10% percentage change in service employment will have a bigger impact on total employment than a 10% change in manufacturing employment.
I believe close-of-business Friday is when the Fed has to file their motion with the appelate court over the FOIA lawsuit they lost vs. Bloomberg.
equities, bonds, anything related to paper...so in essence....most of 'it'.
Not all of it mind you....
Ciao
MS
The level at which they bleed of their assets gives them a degree of flexibility and opacity that they have never had. - C
True, but they're convinced the markets will go totally ape shit freak out if they "show their work." Which is probably true. Look at the weirdness that happened today, based on a total non-event. They clearly have this "you can't handle the truth" attitude, and I'm not sure they aren't right. OTOH, their method of handling the problem does not work, because peeps think there's some sort of mysterious Illuminati thing going on. So they can't win. The markets are going to get massively hysterical on every little thing, like people who have post-traumatic stress disorder.
What Gov't giveth Real economy taketh away
say hello to tropical storm Ida heading east looks like into the gom central pressure is below 1000brs
waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
scone - in the end it's the old man shaking his fist at the tide as it washes away his seaside McMansion of sand...
BTW those bloggers should really identify who those people are at Treasury....based on what I've read it sure seems they are not going to get any favors. Maybe they are enamored with being picked for deprogramming the "misconceptions" but those meetings are never going to go anywhere. Roast Beef notwithstanding....
Ciao
MS
bsr,
picture of roast beef on the wall from the last thread.
rofl.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
We can argue all day about whether or not it was a predictable event and he should have built there in the first place, but I think we can all agree that he's an idiot if he starts rebuilding on the exact same spot.
if she continues into the gulf they will be shuting down if they got anyone out there.hopefully she will just go away.
true confessions - advanced order for FAZ failed and I accidentally made money today
to accidents
MS wrote:
I believe the technical term for this is 'politics'.
Is the water warm enough in the gulf to keep her going north? Very late for any kind of major hurricane forming.
noob goldberg wrote:
Unless he gets that sweet disaster insurance deal. Then, I'd say rebuild. What the hell.
Do the Fedsters have to keep their personal investments in a blind trust?
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Only if his premiums stay the same. If they're increased to cover the higher risk, he's still an idiot.
EDIT: And, to draw this metaphor to a close, I'm not familiar with any 'Central Bank Disaster Insurance'. At least, none that are actuarially sound.
OT
Both the Republican and Democratic party leadership have become lapdops for the big banks and the status quo. Neither are open to real reform or change.
From Naked Capitalism!
Guest Post: Will the Democrats Lose in 2010 (or 2012) Because They Won’t Pass Real Financial Reforms? « naked capitalism
Nice!
Scone- that is precisely why their job is easier when and if they ever want to tighten conditions. The markets will freak out and do the Feds work for them and the Fed can throw up its hands say " who me- I didn't do anything" . Doing think the politicians will be able to figure out the nuances. Contrast this with 2004 where the Fed tried to tighten but long term interest rates came down. (We can argue whether that was because the Fed telegraphed its moves and was so predictable).
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 11/4/2009 - 4:20 pm
noob goldberg wrote:
all agree that he's an idiot if he starts rebuilding on the exact same spot.
Unless he gets that sweet disaster insurance deal. Then, I'd say rebuild. What the hell.
He's an idiot if he starts rebuilding on the exact same spot and keeps the house. On the other hand, he can sell that house to a sucker/buyer, after taking out an insurance policy for 10-20x the actual value of the house.
ben calls hank on phone
ben,.. hey hank i need some help here
hank, ...youre tellin me
ben, ...no really, what are you buyin lately
hank,.. you mean me personally or our friends at goldman
ben,.... you personally
hank...why do you want to know?
ben...well i dont know if this helicopter thing is gonna quite work out and uh i might need a little protection
hank..hey you need me to send some guys over from Xe?
ben...no not that kind of protection
hank...look ben ill answer your question with a question
ben...ok what
hank...is gold FDIC insured and is the fed long on gold?
ben...whattaya mean of course its not fdic insured...and you know damn well weve been trying to hold gold down
hank...ok theres your answer... , i mean look ben i hope you didnt buy all that bullshit you got told at the NY fed,
hank continues....remember what the maestro said, back in 66 and repeated 8 years ago...gold "is" money
'66 Greenspan article supports gold standard
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
I love you guys. In an amoral, scumbag sort of way, of course.
SNAFU wrote:
In my more idealist moments (usually after a few glasses of wine) I think about how nice it would be if one of the two major parties imploded. But, then I remember their dumbasses....
Scone- that is precisely why their job is easier when and if they ever want to tighten conditions. The markets will freak out and do the Feds work for them and the Fed can throw up its hands say " who me- I didn't do anything" .- c
I can't see that at all. The Fedsters, banksters, politicians, etc. have a vested interest in the status quo. These guys are patently working for "stability" at all costs. Literally, at all costs. And they are gambling that they can control the situation and its consequences.
I work in manufacturing. And I don't believe for a second that manufacturing employment in increasing. The dual mantra in American industry right now is to cut costs by cutting labor and cut costs by outsourcing. It seems like our corporate masters don't even consider growth as a viable plan - instead it's all about increasing margins by cutting and chopping.
I'll also note that our factory is scheduled to close permanently in a few months. So a lot of people I know are looking for a future job. The only manufacturing companies that are hiring at all are in the food processing and medical implement industries. The rest seem to be in dismantle mode.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Did you mean they're, or their? Both are true, but I just want to know how to answer.
noob goldberg wrote:
HA! I meant "their". But, you are right, there sure ARE.
I'll also note that our factory is scheduled to close permanently in a few months.- Binko
Sorry to hear that, man.
yes it will in terms of numbers of people .
But this thread is about co-relation between ISM and the BLS number. Just because the service sector employs more people doesn't mean that co-relation service ISM /BLS services payroll is going to be tighter than the manufacturing ISM vis a vis the BLS manufacturing number.
Your comment would be right if CR was comparing total employment (services plus manufacturing) to the ISM services and ISM manufacturing. I don't beleive he did that.
MS,
I think perhaps Treasury was trying to guage how well informed the bloggers were re: what was going on. I haven't seen too many blogs actually focus on the work Congress is doing; ie. commitee hearings and questions of Congressmen.
For example, last week there was a hearing on Market Structure, Dark Pools, High Frequency Trading, etc. I saw Zerohedge link to the live stream but I didn't see any comprehensive analysis on the results. I've listened to about half of it and I think I've learned a lot about "dark pools" liquidity, etc. There is a concern among institutional traders (ie. hedge/pension funds) that dark pools have a function to move the market without their trades getting front-run.... and they are concerned if there is a large institutional trade, the market will get that information and front-run with it. It seems to me the problem would be front-running; or, why should the market not know about large moves by people in dark pools that provide "information" to the market? It sounded like the SEC might force more "dark pool" transparency, which seemed to be the issue rather than the existence or size of dark pools (although the SEC sounded like they wanted to limit the size of dark pools).
On high frequency trading there was a lot of talk; and some confusion on the terms. Some people thought of "high frequency trading" as providing liquidity to the market. My takeaway; was that it depends on your definition of HFT. There was one witness who was talking about HFT in terms of traders putting in lots of orders and also canceling lots of orders. I don't know where I saw an article (Zerohedge?) but I think someone wrote a piece how this type of action gives an indication of "false liquidity"... and there might not be interest at all if the cancellation outweighs the orders that get executed.
All in all; I don't think I've seen any blogger give a comprehensive report on this meeting... when the whole hearing is available online via stream (and you can convert it to mp3 overnight if necessary).
ida
Tropical Weather : Weather Underground
direction of travel wnw the waters fine hopefully she will have to cross land. and she just gone away
Holy Sheeeet, Batman, it's a conspiracy!
List of conspiracy theories - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
So what these two surveys are telling you is that there's an inventory rebuild going on in the supply side of the economy in anticipation of increased demand, but the demand side isn't showing signs of increased demand. This should end well...
You know NaRm, I think come 2012, there may be a real chance that a third party candidate may win the WH. The independent vote will decide. Implosion may happen, with or without dumb asses.
?
Btw., we need an icon for amoral scumbag, or just use the
I've got travel so I'll listen into the hearing further while on the plane. I can probably put together some report tonight posted into the comments.
Scone- I think you are conflating two issues
a- their ability to act which I think is easier and b - their willingness to act . I fully agree that their willingness to act is in question which is why the inflationists have the better argument.
Obama equals "one and done."
He just hasn't figured that out yet. In 2010, he will.
Meanwhile, the real economy will continue to deteriorate due to the lack of something called LEADERSHIP.
I think we are well within the range of 'noise' with these employment stats. In other words, they tell us nothing except that we have not had a gigantic drop or increase.
This is true of almost all stats lately - house prices, sales, GDP, profit levels...
I think
would work fine for right now!
YLSP wrote:
Oddly enough, yesterday, my yoga instructor was fairly pissed off about "the banking mess" after she'd been reading Huffingtion Post (sp) for the last few days. She knows I'm "in banking" and was asking me some good questions about was is "going on". Perhaps the peasants are getting wind that somethings not right in Oz.
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 11/4/2009 - 4:24 pm
I love you guys. In an amoral, scumbag sort of way, of course.
In other words, a totally unemotional, narcissistic psychopath envy-respect kind of love. Who knew it would be so cold and empty?
I fully agree that their willingness to act is in question which is why the inflationists have the better argument. - C
That's interesting, I would have said just the opposite. Which almost suggest we're at a fork in the decision tree. But then, as far as I can see the unwind is so massive, and the demographics look so bad going forward, that no amount of pump will stop the slide, aka Japan.
Obama had a clear opportunity to make real changes.
He punted.
Manufactuerers got talked into increasing inventories and some consumers got talked into spending money they didn't have, such as cash for clunkers.
Suckers all.
here is the question- are independents deserting Obama because
a. They are worried about his spending and left leaning agenda (MSM view) or
b. They were looking for a different kind of politics - one in which the special interests didn't get to determine everything, the banksters didn't run everything and the average Joe caught a break. Since none of that has happened they have gone home and back to guns, gods and gays.
If both parties are going to be kleptocracies might as well hang out with the old crowd. Ironically this was IMO what he was trying to get at with his famous clinging to guns and god comment.
Speed wrote:
He's just a politician for the peasants. The squid decides what actions to take in the best interests of the nobility.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
I'm Canadian. We know cold and empty.
Parsing the F.O.M.C.,
It looks like the re-cov-er-y
Is tenuous, at best,
But who could have guessed
The extent of the lar-ce-ny?
Binko (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 11/4/2009 - 4:25 pm
I work in manufacturing. And I don't believe for a second that manufacturing employment in increasing. The dual mantra in American industry right now is to cut costs by cutting labor and cut costs by outsourcing. It seems like our corporate masters don't even consider growth as a viable plan - instead it's all about increasing margins by cutting and chopping.
Sorry to hear it - the only good news here is that the cost-cutting is both an obvious and temporary fix. If we manage to hollow out completely any chance at moving toward (back to?) a manufacturing base to replace some of the lost FIRE, services, and tertiary eCONomy it will fall to bureaucracy bloat and social programs to keep us fed and off the streets.
secrecy is killing the country
its oh so much easier to commit crimes in the dark
but our leaders scream,"we must have secrecy so we can protect you...its for your own good!"
It's beginning to look like this country needs a president who carries an MP5.
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 11/4/2009 - 4:40 pm
I'm Canadian. We know cold and empty.
Rural midwest. We live in cold and empty.
There's a bill currently in committee to allow multi-limbed invertebrates run for president.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Which is why he is so much more dangerous than Bush. His eloquence makes us put our guard down and distracts from actually looking at what he has done. According to his advisers- major accomplishment the "hate crimes law". While I certainly believe that there are certain acts that go beyond violence to the individual and are an attack on our democracy e.g. killing a policeman , Supreme Court justice and people in direct contrast to what the values of the Republic are - I don't think that it is anywhere near an even trade given his handouts to the financial institutions. Progressives are brain dead if they can;t figure that out.
So the stock futures are up on the promised low interest rate environment? And the home buyer credit gets pushed off to next week. "We're in for some chop."
'...some sort of mysterious Illuminati thing going on...
'Oh you mean the 'hoax' & 'rabble rousing' sites selling gold & survival gear...'Illuminati' is a term in some historical accounts...what we have is done pretty much in the open by people we see on TV...don't have the accounting of bailout money maybe...but the interest rates moves both up & down are in the public eye and in the public record as are many economic 'moves'...the obvious policies that result in dollar devaluation can be seen...cite the links you are referring to when you say 'Illuminati'...and we can see if they are legit sites and/or sources
crazyv wrote:
By independent, that would mean the 30% of the non Party dumbasses (the fix 70% split between the Republicrats).
The independent peasants are just bouncing off the only three choices they have. The Democrats (which the tried and are now disillusioned with), which only leaves the Republicans or not voting. The guns gods & gay peasants are probably not independents; they are the true-political-believer Republican dumbass hardcore - roughly 35%.
"There's a bill currently in committee to allow multi-limbed invertebrates run for president."
I thought it was already legal for multi-limbed inebriates to run for president.
scone wrote:
Conspiracies are common. They are prosecuted on a regular basis throughout the world resulting in many convictions.
9/11 was a successful conspiracy.
The assassination of Lincoln was a successful conspiracy.
Enron was a conspiracy.
Madoff was a conspiracy.
They are all around you!
Line by line Fed statement comparison and analysis:
Parsing the Fed: How the Statement Changed - Real Time Economics - WSJ
If Obama turns out to be a widely recognized failure as prez, there will be societal costs for a few years to come, methinks. There was a lot more riding on this presidency than just another dem admin.
crazyv wrote:
You can't convince a true-believer of anything that his brain can process. The brain is just a BS generator AND reality filter. It takes reality, twists it to match the existing BS and throws out the conflicting reality.
Mr Slippery wrote:
Don't forget the
's in my yard. They are STILL there and getting bigger.
NaRm - if the existing b.s. was actual honest-to-Glod truth, would the brain then become a truth generator?
I don't think that it is anywhere near an even trade given his handouts to the financial institutions.
if you're talking about TARP, those handouts were given out before he took office.
'Secrecy is killing the country.'
Monetary interest rate & money supply policies and Treasury 'stimulus' spending policies that are unsustainable are not working...haven't worked for other countries that have tried it...and end up in financial crises, currencies, deflation, bubble/bust cycles, currency/financial crises contagion, etc.
But it'd be nice to know where 'bailout' money went for sure...
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Yah, in theory. I wouldn't know tho, everything my brain as ever thought was BS.
failure as prez
The only hope I have left is that he'll realize he's a unatermer and start rocking the boat for reals.
Speed wrote:
After my third glass of wine, I think this too. But then I remember how to got to the top.
crazyv wrote
"Which is why he is so much more dangerous than Bush."
hey lets talk after obama starts two wars and throws two fbi agents off his ranch for warning him about impending attacks
bush said , "ok you have covered your ass, now get offa my ranch"
look im as angry as anybody here about obama being in bed with the bankstas
to color his entire administation on this one addmittedly earthshaking issue, is to be guilty of simplistic thinking
and i know from reading your usually intelligent posts you are not...simplistic
at a press conference in st louis about 5 years ago bush hinted that worrying about whether or not the world immolates over global conflict may not be a concern cause after all armageddon is Gods will
as dangerous indeed
Clearly, the Fed is using word processor boilerplate to say as little as possible from month to month, changing a word here, or a word there. They know the markets will be completely and pointlessly roiled by a misplaced semi-colon, so they try to make the statement as empty of real content as possible.
"if you're talking about TARP, those handouts were given out before he took office. "
That he had a big hand in if I remember correctly the history leading up to the initial bailouts.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Au contraire, mon frere. Obama is a product of the elite classes. He may not have been "to the manor born", but he was adopted and nurtured by the liberal elite (overseas private schools, Harvard Law, etc.). All you have to do is look at the gargantuan amount of Wall Street $$$ behind his campaign,that will tell you everything you need to know about this guy.
Everything else about Obama is window dressing. The american public, the majority of which is slow but not stupid, is gradually figuring this out. The only people that will be left standing beside Obama in 12 months are the 20-30% hard-core delusional left-wingers... they believe in rainbows and unicorns and are completely disconnected from reality anyway so you can't take them seriously
The U.S. spending 'big bubble' growing now, continued sharp deflation in mant industries, and rapid U.S. dollar devaluation being stalked by currency speculators is happening before our very eyes...the 'dark forces' is an internet meme to make this thing more complicated and mysterious that it really is...
I particularly like the one about Illuminati conspiring to create a New World Order with disguised reptilian aliens. It's kind of Time Lords meets V.
I don't know too much about the South Korean political system, but the one five year term thing really does have an appeal.
mock turtle wrote:
You know, these "details" are correct (maybe) but that's not the point. The Dems win based on scaring you into voting for them. In the long long long long term (say 10 years) the ONLY think that matters is WHO get's the loot (other than Hu). The rest is all noise.
American citizens should have something in common beyond two parties scaring the hell out of them that the OTHER party will win. Beyond the constitution and who gets the loot, i'm not sure anything else matters.
Obama wont be rockin the lifeboats...he packed up the banksters on them with all the life preservers, and stayed aboard the Titanic. He's also out of signal flares, and the one ship that saw the last one is being chartered by Dick Fuld.
Buckaroo Banzai wrote:
So, the OTHER party has nothing to do with this? Of course, I know the answer. You're the true-believer on the OTHER side.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
would the brain then become a truth generator
Yah, in theory. I wouldn't know tho, everything my brain as ever thought was BS.
LOL, very nice. Well it would seem we're trying to change the wrong thing then. If we were able to change the brain so it knows truth and stops reasoning on the basis of bullshit, it would start to interpret reality correctly. Curious thought.
Those are the mirror image 20% that still wants Cheney to run for President and thought GWB was some kind of intellectual.
'V' is a fictional conspiracy sci-fi saga but some people will think it's real...or like reality.
Better for folks to watch that as they lose their pensions & homes rather than something based in reality...
GDD9000 wrote:
It's closer to 30 or 35% on both sides tho. Which is why a 3rd party is impossible.
So has anyone figured out this puzzle? Crashing dollar = strong U.S. military.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
What "other" party?? It's been a one-party system in this country since 1913, at least. You can call them Republicrats or Demopublicans, don't make no difference.
Good evening, Eastern Front. Allow me first to apologize for this interruption. I do, like many of you, appreciate the comforts of every day routine- the security of the familiar, the tranquility of repetition. I enjoy them as much as any bloke. But in the spirit of commemoration, thereby those important events of the past usually associated with someone's death or the end of some awful bloody struggle, a celebration of a nice holiday, I thought we could mark this November the 5th, a day that is sadly no longer remembered, by taking some time out of our daily lives to sit down and have a little chat. There are of course those who do not want us to speak. I suspect even now, orders are being shouted into telephones, and men with guns will soon be on their way. Why? Because while the truncheon may be used in lieu of conversation, words will always retain their power. Words offer the means to meaning, and for those who will listen, the enunciation of truth. And the truth is, there is something terribly wrong with this country, isn't there? Cruelty and injustice, intolerance and oppression. And where once you had the freedom to object, to think and speak as you saw fit, you now have censors and systems of surveillance coercing your conformity and soliciting your submission. How did this happen? Who's to blame? Well certainly there are those more responsible than others, and they will be held accountable, but again truth be told, if you're looking for the guilty, you need only look into a mirror. I know why you did it. I know you were afraid. Who wouldn't be? War, terror, disease. There were a myriad of problems which conspired to corrupt your reason and rob you of your common sense.
poic, what he (and many others) voted for was something entirely different from what we received. TARP money was supposed to get the banks lending again, not to be hoarded for their own purposes. Is that his fault?
I'm just wondering if 'monetary policy' starts affecting 'national security' if the Fed 'independence' absolute will be harder to defend?
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
But impossible. Living in a semi-psychotic, duplicitous, self-delusional state appears to be "normal" for large segments of the human population. It makes morals and social-structure much easier for the brains to handle. Always works for me, anyway.
thx - one of my all time favorite movies..
The Dems win based on scaring you into voting for them.
apparently you've forgotten what the alternative was ~
And lots more parsing over at seeking alpha: Stock Market News, Opinion & Analysis, Investing Ideas -- Seeking Alpha
The less the Fed says, the more the statement gets parsed for minutely small word changes, which is a negative feedback loop right there. (And it's only going to get worse as the 24/7 blogger cycle goes on. Gotta grab those eyeballs and earn the ad revenues.) The more people talk, the less gets said. Feh.
Buckaroo Banzai wrote:
Ok, as long as we're NOT accusing one "side" of the common party. Lots of one-sided LIBERAL bashing. LIBERAL are just nice dumbasses. "Conservatives" mean dumbasses. Each has their party, sycophants to guide them, and a nobility to worship. Each Party has a lock on 35% of the population.
barfly wrote:
No. did it really matter.
barfly wrote:
I'm beginning to wonder how bad McCain could possibly have been. He definitely would have been a one termer, and might have focused on the economy instead of all this other stuff.
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 11/4/2009 - 5:02 pm
But impossible. Living in a semi-psychotic, duplicitous, self-delusional state appears to be "normal" for large segments of the human population. It makes morals and social-structure much easier for the brains to handle. Always works for me, anyway.
Yeah, you can't win this game and you can't quit playing. What kinda gin joint they runnin' here in Casino Naturae?
sm_landlord wrote:
He can "focus" on the economy all he want. Until the squid problem is addressed there is no solution. You've got have a functional democracy first. And VOTING isn't a democracy. A democracy usually means a orderly change of POWER.
Ooooooooo, more chart pron!!
Liz breathes heavily.
and might have focused on the economy instead of all this other stuff.
yeah, that would have been great.
Not.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
That's MY problem. I wish there's was drugs for this. I'd love to stop caring.
"poic, what he (and many others) voted for was something entirely different from what we received. TARP money was supposed to get the banks lending again, not to be hoarded for their own purposes. Is that his fault?"
Well you had pointed out it was before his time. I'm simply pointing at that as far as I remember the time-line both McCain and Obama were in the thick of the whole negotiations.
There was a whole lot of hoopla about McCain leaving the campaign trail to go to DC to get the ball rolling and then Obama jumped into the fray as well.
My point being it wasn't just GWB handling the tarp negotiations as far as I'm aware.
What Merican just said about change of power. Excellent thought.
NaRm: Comrade, the "squid" is not a problem. The "squid" is reality.
- Management
To 'save' the U.S. economy (and global economy) by letting the dollar spin into uncharted waters of a possible 'crisis' devaluation and government insolvency is one of these quagmires or puzzles that one can't make any sense of.
Save the big banks but lose the dollar to rapid devaluation and let the deficit spin out of control by more 'stimulus/bailouts'.
Doesn't make sense any more.
I think U.S. military funding might be at risk in this 'financial/currency crisis' scenario unfolding not in the shadows but in the open!
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Our glorious squid. All hail the squid!
Just called to see whether a publication had gone out to finish a quiet title suit.
It was---in a box of files somewhere. I have some hope that it is not in a random file
box (actually loose paper box), but one devoted to Publishing in a local paper.
In case you were wondering, or not, the PODS option is about half the price of a full service move, something like 12k rather than 25k, from Oregon to New Hampshire. They certainly seem to have a good business plan.
Here's what we would have had to look forward to, if McCain had been Abel.
sm_landlord
mccain?
with phill gramm as chief economic advisor! would have been bad and in bed with bankstas too
thats our problem...many differences between several dems and repubs on a vairety of issues
but when it comes to the bankstas...they seem to own most of the prominent politicians
Squid Brother is watching you....
~splat
A client has a good friend who is very high up in B of A. She was saying, they weren't
making any loans, so how could they make any money to stay in business. This is 2 degree
of separation gossip, but this client is prolly faithfully repeating what the friend said.
Scone == POD woman!!!
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
AND, it's NOT McCain or Obama. We elect the ENTIRE Party. This obsession with THE Dear leader in Merica is crazy too. The Party is what's important, NOT the individual.
Milking the CC debtors ?
~splat
MoF:
Concur. With what's going to come re currency devaluation, there's no way that we can have a funded military to the extent that we've had it. Look at the Soviet military and the Potemkin force that they became. I can only hope that the senior staff is giving serious consideration to how we rationally and safely wind down the commitments without things going BOOM.
mock turtle wrote:
NOT just the bankstas, it starts at local politics. Developers purchase politicians, and the market of "smart amoral scumbags" picks who goes up the food chain. Those at the top, proved themselves at ALL levels.
Portland makes 12th in the "most unemployed cities in America" race:
The 20 Most Unemployed Cities In America
NOTaREALmerican
i held small town small time local elected office and turned down envelopes of cash
Ok here is a nifty Liz scam for Dade County. You can file bk every 180 daze.
It's taking more than 180 days to schedule a Sale on the Courthouse steps which
is now inside the Courthouse.
Soooo, you wait til the last minute before the sale is scheduled, file bk, get kicked
out of bk ('cause after all, you don't wanna make the payments), get rescheduled
for sale after 180 days, file bk. Wash rinse repeat.
I see Bloomberg is blaming the end of day fall on the House passing the Expedited CARD Act. Given that the Udall bill (the companion bill in the Senate) has not even been scheduled for debate by the Senate Banking Committee yet, it will all become moot, as Dodd has only scheduled two weeks of hearings in November and he wants to take up his regulatory reform bill then. If any bill has legs, it will be Dodd's bill to freeze changes in finance charges until the original effective date of the CARD Act in February.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
A playbook that everyone's seen isn't all that useful.
lawyerliz wrote:
My zombie is making loans, but you have to be more worthy now. Tougher standards. You have to wrestle the loan officer too, best of 3 rounds.
Personally I think the ongoing Wars need to be escalated or they need to get out because one of the problems in Vietnam was limping along half-assed for so long...and this is what's starting to happen now...so if the dollar tanks...raising troop levels and sending more needed resources (to Win) may be more of a challange as the dollar devalues and stimulus/bailout money goes to the too Big To Fail banks, etc...national priorities are screwed up now...getting out of the U.S. military occupations that are dragging on forever may not be a bad thing as the U.S. currency devalues quickly...and the nation teeters on bankruptcy...
......I have had to listen about politics since I was 6. Much of what I heard I dismissed, but still remembered. The early 50s had communists under every rock and branch of government. The National Council of Churches, the John Birch Society, The American Communist Party, Get the US Out of the UN, and since; countless wars that tried to camouflage themselves as "police actions" or "skirmishes", two Presidents impeached (Nixon quit before he actually was impeached), no more gold standard, no more rule of law, and no more amateur politicians - they're all mostly highly paid professionals now and all attorneys. Seeing the march forward, there is, quite simply, no fixing this mess. Anyone who thinks differently is seriously delusional. Regardless the number of pundits, graphs and experts saying otherwise.....The End Is Near Get prepared. There will be nothing worse than your last feeling of "Ohhhhh Shiiiiit!"
Scone == POD woman!!! - LL
Yep. I'm secretly controlling you all with evil mind waves that zip through your laptop and eat your thoughts. In service to my alien reptilian masters.
Anywho, kinda signing off for some time. I'll be moving, and not posting much. Take care all, and keep your
hats shiny! Bye!
O was just the wooden horse; the real reason we elected the horse, was to get Rahm E. in the white house and in power! imho!
Buckaroo Banzai wrote:
No, that's the soft inner skin. The hard core thinks Obama is a lightweight and is giving him a few more months. But as things get worse, they'll cut him loose and the "cracks in the Republican Party" meme will be as nothing...
The hard core thinks we should burn Wall Street, send health care execs out to work in inner city health clinics in blue-denim uniforms and Mao hats, and tax the upper classes to the bone for all rentier-style income. They don't let us out much.
McCain had known baggage in his incestuous relationship with the bankers. Voting for McCain would've been giving him the high 5 for the S&L failures. Keating 5 anyone?
mock turtle wrote:
Yeah, it's normal part of life. Peasant dumbasses NEVER believe their nobility is guilt tho. That's one place eurpeans have an advantage. Probably because of the war. They somewhat know that all politics and politician are scum. Plus, their dumbasses are spread around between more parties.
splat (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 11/4/2009 - 5:13 pm
Squid Brother is watching you....
~splat
Yes. From inside.
MoF:
I doubt that public sentiment is going to permit escalation, especially as the public anger at the admin grows. Don't know for sure, but wonder if some of J6P are starting to draw the dots between the various government (in)actions and just losing faith in the anointed (appointed?) one.
OT - but volume on TWM (Ultra Short Small Cap) is up 42+% today. Methinks that others are starting to reload and pressure is building on R2K. I can only hope...
I'm laying off Calamari from now on...
~splat
Bob Dobbs wrote:
When are you running for office?
splat (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 11/4/2009 - 5:24 pm
I'm laying off Calamari from now on...
Once you squid, there is no going back.
NOTaREALmerican
NOT "all politicians are scum"...you are only part right
unfortunately there are a lot of scumbag politicians
enuf to uckup the system
not a reason to give in or give up
Yes. From inside.
Careful, or I'll go all inky on yo ass.
My opinion on PMs is to hold up to my targets, which is $20 on silver and $1,200 on gold, and then begin to lighten.
Remember that PMs are "stores of value" to millions of people around the world, especially in Asia. In general, Asians are a lot better PM traders than we are, even if they never went to college and just work all day in a rice paddy.
They will release their gold for currency to spend at some point, and I'm betting it's somewhere around $1,200. But I will probably hold some GLD above $1,200, just to stay in the game.
Silver is a little different, in that it's a thinner market, there's not as much above-ground stock, and there's consistent industrial demand apart from jewelry. In a bad economy, silver jewelry can gain on gold jewelry. So, I might hold silver a little higher above $20 just to see if the shorts get squeezed big. But my main buy-and-hold for silver is SLW. I just fundamentally believe in the company and what they are doing. The opportunity to control 40 million ounces of silver a year with almost no overhead or employees is pretty amazing. The acquisitions they are making look great, and they have the cash to fund them.
scone good luck on your move
Yeah...this friggin' clusterme$$ may end up being a U.S. 'national security issue' and I'm an 'anti-war' type believer in most cases (unless we are attacked of course) but the troops need our support as they say and this is starting to sound dangerously precarious...fast policy action is needed to stop this insanity of historically 'failed' policies and prevent a U.S. dollar collapse or a national bankruptcy IMO...
Buckaroo Banzai wrote:
The hard-core wingers won't be standing with him. Maybe Queen Michelle and their 2 princesses, oh and Gollum Sucks, CitiHeist, Bogusbank of Amerista, and JPRigormortis will be attending him. God Save the Court Jester
Agreed, that only applies to the elected ones.
~splat
mock turtle wrote:
Merica is hopeless. It's the people that don't want democracy. It too difficult for them. I personally think this democracy stuff is just an aberration anyway, it's completely unnatural.
The squid system we have, and Hu has, is the natural system.
A revolution without dancing is a revolution not worth having.
csco beat estimates after hours and said business spending is picking up.
The small cap momo riders may start piling in again which could hurt TWM.
Rich:
Out of curiosity, do you give any credence to the JPM/silver shorting that I'm reading here and there. Or do you place that more in the conspiracy theory mode?
Honestly can't get a handle on that one.
mock turtle wrote:
We agree that it was important. Are you suggesting that there are no litmus tests that can be applied to a President or anybody else. That to draw line (whatever that line is) by which you judge somebody is "simplistic thinking". .
In my mind the financial crisis provided an opportunity of (a) leveling with the American people and working towards a new future (b) recreating the past. Obama elected the latter and with destroyed the entire basis on which I voted for him. Just the fact that he would choose to pay more attention to Geithner/Summers rather than Volcker/Warren is a clear indication of who has captured his mind. I can understand Obama nominating Geithner in November 2008 -it was important to give Wall Street somebody they knew. When he persisted with Geithner the tax evader he lost the moral high ground. In my mind setting aside land in Montana, Hate crimes and other tiny stuff can possibly make up for his failure to exact a price from the financial services industry.
As to Bush starting two wars- do you think it was not legitimate to go into Afghanistan? Even Iraq- although I don't agree with the decision I can understand how somebody could believe that it was the right thing to do. My bigger problems with both those wars is how they were conducted. It was the incompetence, the mismatching of strategic threat and resources.
Buckaroo Banzai wrote:
I don't think you understand the politics of the left very well. They will have left him long before the "oh he is soooo nice , doesn't he make great speeches" crowd.
homedad,
Yes this mess just really hit me today and how serious it really is...the 'audit the fed' stuff is minutiae now as the dollar train to oblivion rolls down the tracks.
I wish I hadn't even read the relevant 'financial/currency crises contagion' research because I can see now the inevitability of this credit/currency destruction in the largest nation it has ever occured in...but the global economy is at risk of collapse here also...when I got off the 'hoax' nonsense sites and starting checking into some real research of past economic collapses...
I could see the similiarities in national economic/political declines...and it made it more real...what is going to actually happen...
NaRm - your defeatism is starting to wear a little thin. Isn't it time for you to go to the gym yet?
I played golf the other day and estimated that I'd make it in the hole by the end of the day.
I beat estimates.
crazyv wrote:
Perhaps, but no existing Party can level with the Merican people, because "the people" couldn't handle it. Politicians are MASTERS at knowing "the people" and using them (edit:) and aren't going to risk their current power for truth.
Obama didn't nominate Geathner, the Party did. Bush didn't start any wars. The Party did.
Evolution of leadership.
barfly wrote:
Reality is tough sometimes, sorry.
crazyv,
How is the continued U.S. 'military funding' going to go if the dollar and the U.S. economy goes into 'shock and awe' from deflationary forces and currency decline speculative attacks? Any ideas?
sm_landlord wrote:
What would have been Gramm's cure? Less regulation and lower taxes? I'm not sure that is a pill I would've wanted to swallow.
Reality is tough sometimes, sorry.
I think everyone here is totally familiar with your message by now. No sense overdoing it.
barfly wrote:
The ignore button is your friend. I haven't heard anybody disagree and I didn't start the topic. Only trying to finish it. In MY opinion, democracy in Merica is dead. We aren't. That's reality.
crazyv wrote:
Absolutely, the poppy production needed to be ramped-up to keep the poor and hopeless drugged. As for Iraq, well, that was to squelch Saddam's middle finger attempt of not accepting the dollar for oil. Oh and the MIC needed a war for profits. Haliburton/Cheney, Carlyle/Bush.......
crazyv
i agree with almost (maybe all?) everything you said about litmus test obama and the bankstas
i have said so repeatedly here at hoocoodanode and i repeat obama has failed, and or is in bed, and or is held in the orbit of the bankstas oligarchy
as for the wars
yes the wars
if it is not plane to you here and now that bush's war in iraq was a lie, a mistake and a deed done as a matter of greed and ego, it is not for me to assume the mantle of one who might elucidate those ways
as for afghanistan...8 years ago we should have gone balls to the wall and hunted down and killed bin laden and wiped out his entire cadre
now the afghan people begin to see us as nothing more than latest on a long list of foreign invaders
we are hemorrhaging precious lives and money my friend...it cost over 1 million dollars a year to train place and maintain one us soldier in afghanistan
last year we were spending nearly 1/2 billion dollars per day in iraq in direct costs and maybe that much more in delayed costs (veterans medical benefits, equipment replacement ,interest on debt as the war in iraq was fought entirely on the credit card!)
bin laden is laughing in a cave somewhere in waziristan has we bleed men and money, bogged down in the GWOT
what the uck is the cia for if not to travel to afghanistan and wack those sobs...and 1/10th the cost and with the loss of far fewer lives
Don't know if already posted:
House votes to speed up credit card reform act - Yahoo! Finance
I would guess this means lots and lots of rate hikes in the next 25 days.
CSCO...
"For the quarter ended October 24, revenue fell 13 percent from a year earlier to $9.0 billion. "
"Net profit was $1.8 billion, or 30 cents a share, compared with $2.2 billion, or 37 cents a share, a year earlier."
Share Price 11/5/2008 $17.39
Share Price 11/4/2009 $23.29
Revenue down, profit down, shares up. A good representation of our whole economy.
Revenue down, profit down, shares up. A good representation of our whole economy.
And dollar down, scale accordian-ly.
Is Obama just Bush's 3rd term or was Bush just Obama's pre-terms? I honestly don't see what GWB would have done different to date. That includes nominating an Hispanic woman to the Supreme Court (just not this Hispanic woman).
barfly wrote:
Yes absolutely and all the others who believed that garbage. The banks have acted exactly as I predicted they would. It takes an incredibly dumb man ( I don't believe that he is that) or a captive of the banks to have believed that. the in an uncertain economic environment with a bunch of questionable loans already on the books that banks would choose to double down. While you are teetering on the edge you don't decided to take on more risk to push you over- you walk back from the edge. The banks doing this are not venal just rational.
If Obama was really serious about kicking starting lending - he could have expanded the SBA ,allowed FNM/FRE to purchase corporate loans, he could have incorporated 5 new banks with a 50% government ownership. The 300Billion spent on the banks would have provided plenty of capital to start making loans.
Just because somebody who wants to borrow money is denied a loan doesn't mean that the banks are unwilling to make loans. The bigger problem is that there are few credit worthy borrowers around based on more realistic assessment of the economic risks. Unfortunately borrowers still want banks to behave in an irrational manner and lend to them even if the bank has little chance of being repaid. That is not a credit crunch.
NaRm,
It ain't really the 'natural system'...that's Social Darwinism which was supposedly discredited long ago although it has actually been institutionalized to some extent.
Government and even the economy can be structured (created) entities. It's a Myth that what we have is simply 'natural'(evolutionary)...it is man-made by laws and no laws (deregulation). It is manipulated and manufactured.
"And dollar down, scale accordian-ly. "
Dollar down very good for CSCO and other international companies.
No so good for J6P especially if China repegs.
Rob - straw man, Afghanistan (Hobrooke), mmj, extended benefits, health care (fwiw), etc.,
NOTaREALmerican- think another big difference the left is better informed but allows their heart to rule their head. The right is just outright ignorant.
JP wrote:
Senate has not scheduled debate on the bill
poic wrote:
For more than one reason too: The cash on their balance sheet is often offshore (in particular, Ireland iirc) for tax reasons.
poic wrote:
No so good for J6P especially when China repegs.
There. Fixed that for ya.
Seriously, this is more China's problem than ours. As disposable cash drops and US savings increases the Chinese need their export economy to remain attractive to US consumers. I don't see them acting any more rashly than in small baby steps.
merchants of fear wrote:
Nothing in social "science" discredited in practice. Only in opinion. We're about to see just how "discredited" it really is as OUR squid and Hu's squid negotiate terms, with their peasants as collateral.
Have your squid call my squid
poic wrote:
And again for csco: They manufacture very little, it's all thru Flex, etc. so repeg will hurt not just J6P
NervousRex wrote:
Talk to me when Barry announces the troop increase. Then we'll have a difference as GWB would have most likely not.
crazv,
The so-called 'right' is not ignorant about their pension declines, foreclosures, unemployment, loss of earnings, loss of dollar purchasing power, etc. and neither are people on the so-called 'left'...
One of my clients discovered that his interest rate had been raised to 15.9% he's on
the edge anyway. He called them up and told them that they'd better lower it to the 3.2%
that he was promised and credit the diff against principal. Or. He isn't paying.
Like gov't overtaxation producing less revenues, hiking up the interest rates may cause
fewer to pay.
merchants of fear wrote:
Yes, when THIS drowns out the fornicating harlots, the 5th male appendage, and global warming, there might be some changes. He Hu controls the loot, rules over all. It will be interesting too see how it comes about. I'm not seeing this YET tho.
My clients (who are all above average) are starting to be more and more
skeptical of what the media is saying.
NaRm,
The so-called 'peasants' are losing their value quickly as 'collateral'...
Lawyerliz: Like gov't overtaxation producing less revenues, hiking up the interest rates may cause fewer to pay.
Your Dawg bit my laugher curve.
merchants of fear wrote:
Squids LOVE peasants. It's the concept of owning them that they like. What's good is it to be a noble without some serfs to kick around.
NaRm,
True.
Rob Dawg wrote 3:42 pm
I"s Obama just Bush's 3rd term or was Bush just Obama's pre-terms? I honestly don't see what GWB would have done different to date...."
ok heres a shoirt list
change in cafe standards
limiting strip and mountain top mining for coal
adhering to epa water and air quality standards
allowing doctors to prescribe medical marijuana and not prosecuting soft drugs as if they were schedule 1
efforts to get isreal to stop putting settlements in the west bank
efforts to get palestinians in gaza and west bank to reconcile under abbas
gay rights
an ed to the intermediary student loan banks that skimmed 2 or three percent profit on loans that were essentially gov money and default repayments guaranteed by taxpayers while bankstas cronies got guaranteed returns
a departure from the policy threatening ito invade another country pre-emptively when they have not attacked us first or are not immediately about to attack us ..
an end to using torture to coerce confessions from suspected enemy
efforts to close guantanamo and re settle the portion who were picked up and held there in error
regulation of the credit card industry
public option healthcare
i could go on and on
obama is not bush,,, maybe better in some ways...maybe worse...but not the same....face it
crazyv - I agree with much of what you say, especially with regard to a partially nationalized bank. My preference would have been for a fully nationalized bank, but with respect to the credit crisis you mentioned, the problem was credit for small business, as I recall, and I can just imagine the outcry if anything like nationalization had been attempted. The R's would have had a field day.
Clowns to the left of me,
Jokers to the right, here I am,
Stuck in the middle with you.
Mock Turtle-
I think foreign policy is not like friendly golf game- you don't get mulligans. I agree with you Afghanistan is a lost cause now. However, both the wars I believe could have been prosecuted differently and we would have had a much better outcome. It is clear to me from reading several books written by people who actually understand the region that following the departure of the Taliban in 2001/2002 a well constructed aid and security package would have made all the difference. The people of Afghanistan were tired after 30 years of fighting and would have welcomed the US presence. Instead they got more of the same - shades of Obama supporters.
In Iraq - the same thing was true. Instead of standing by as the law and order situation broke down if the United States had assumed the responsibility that is was required to under the Geneva convention as the occupying power once again we would have built up good will with the Iraqi people. We forget now that 2003/2004 was actually quite quiet in Iraq. Our problem in Iraq was that we never had enough troops to keep the peace. I don't think that anybody has provided any evidence to indicate that Bush didn't believe that Iraq didn't have WMD's. I think they were absolutely convinced that they were there even if they had to fabricate evidence to convince the rest of the world.-sort of like the cop who knows the person is guilty but doesn't have the evidence. Not often that I agree with Cheney - but it is true that if Iraq did have nuclear weapons and there was a chance that they could fall into the hands of terrorists 9/11presented a completely different risk assessment. Up until that point terrorism was always in support of a political goal. Those political goals constrained the magnitude of the risk. 9/11 was nihilist attack designed to generate the maximum damage with no real political goal. If you recall even during the IRA bombings of Britain they often gave a warning to the authorities to minimize deaths. My problem is that if this was an existential threat to the United States why would you fight it with 135,000 troops. Much of the explosives used against us were from stockpiles that we didn't have enough troops to secure. One wonders what would have happened had they actually found WMD's
I once worked for a company where that was the employee motto. They were experts in 'that f--ked up the last 4 times we tried it.. it just cant' f--k up THIS time !'
~splat
mock turtle wrote:
I agree 100%. But, if you blowup the financial system, it's ALL lost when the Fascist come roaring back with a vengeance. This is the one thing I simply do NOT understand about "the Progressives". The BIGGER you make the government and more bureaucratic it becomes, the MORE concentrated the loot gets, the easier it is for the smart amoral scumbags to capture it. Your ONLY defense against them is decentralization. But, Socialists (progressives) and Fascists both agree BIGGER is always better. Until the OTHER side get control.
Maybe some recombinant swine flu will cull the peasants (And I don't say this to be funny)...can you imagine the social welfare liability 'bubble' that is growing out of this economic decline...you talk about unfunded liabilities of government...a government that has given a lot of the money away already...the growing numbers of unemployed...if the dollar doesn't tank from the 'expectations' generated by the investment vultures, insiders cashing out, and the corporate raiders...it (the
HAS to tank in trying to fund 'social welfare' for the 'lost generations' coming into the financial Crash...the babyboomers are going to go 'boom'!
What is it they say about Democracy and the dollar?
worst except for all the others...
We could use a revamp or reset, but not dead yet.
CR sez...
I would expect the ISM-services to be more 'job sensitive' - the service sector is a lot larger and more labor intensive than is mfg. and has been since the 80s. Bump in services activity means a big bump in services employment [see FIRE]. Drop in services activity means big drop in services employment. Big bump in mfg activity means a small bump in employment [see 'lights out factory']. They are geared differently... mfg has a lot more 'operational leverage' [capital per worker].
So we've gone through the post-agrarian age, the post-industrial age and now into the post-service-sector age... what comes next?
Happy
ing.
The Post-employment age. A large unemployable core who do not have specialized skills. The employed base becomes a minority section of society with extremely niche specialized skills which are impractical or cost-ineffective to offshore.
~splat
With McCain, there was always the chance that he would snap and go BullMoose on us. Obama's too smooth and he follows
's script too well. Things will only get interesting if Obama's popularity sinks low enough that Dems on the fringes feel safe to start unloading on the con job Wall Street is doing to our country.
mock turtle wrote:
Bush left the honorific for Obama and now you want to fault him for it? The new standards Obama signed were instigated by Bush in 2006. Besides he made some very smart changes to vehicle emissions and CAFE in 2004 with sulfur and weight exemptions. I don't know whether those were started in Carter or whenever.
Most of the things on your list have similar back stories although the strip mining bit is a true shame. How many days until Gitmo is closed?
Crazyv,
Once the U.S. took out Hussein (the old 'friend' of the U.S.)...the U.S. should have been done there...maybe there was weapons of MD or maybe there wasn't but Hussein was gone...what has staying achieved in reality...Iraq is still dangerour and unstable...the world is still dangerous...now there is Pakistan to worry about...it's like chasing a phantom...now you see it now you don't...the 'enemy' has been put into the 'minds' of Americans by selling the endless wars and occupations as a way to win against radical Islam...but in the end these expansionist policies perpetuate the resistance to occupations IMO...
dryfly - The reality age, complete with nasty sharp pointy teeth? Yeah, right. Don't you wish.
A major flight to alternate reality escapism, which will follow the disillusion that breaks when CONfidence in central banks (the last faith we have left) to manipulate the markets is challenged by repeated public failure. That's my take on the progression of
anyway. Then maybe scientific dictatorship, a society where power runs experts and experts run everything.
Crazyv
once again much of what you say i agree with just above
but at the middle where you say "just like obama supporters"??? what that doesnt fit what do you mean huh
second disagreement...you are mistaken if you think that bush didnt know better about iraq and WMD
read treasury secretary oneills book "the price of loyalty" (suskind i think co authored)...this is a hard core conservative republican who says bush said from day one to his cabinet joint chiefs etc..."find me a way to get into iraq..." bush was thirsty for a war
in a series of interviews late 90s bush said point blank... i wont make the mistake my father did...im goin all the way in and be a big war time president cause that will give me the street cred to do what ever i want...words to that effect
And the squid keeps rolling along....
splat (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 11/4/2009 - 6:07 pm
So we've gone through the post-agrarian age, the post-industrial age and now into the post-service-sector age... what comes next?
The Post-employment age. A large unemployable core who do not have specialized skills. The employed base becomes a minority section of society with extremely niche specialized skills which are impractical or cost-ineffective to offshore.
~splat
That and growth of any industry that allows you to find specialized expert X and connect him to arbitrary firm Y, or better yet, to transfer the knowledge base of X into a system that can be used by firm Y. And of course, a way for expert X to find firm Y, though I suspect that will become less and less common.
Expect a
The Senate has finally voted on the UE and homebuyer's credit extension - now to the House where it will be likely approved tomorrow.
EDIT: 98 voted in favor - 2 not voting.
dryfly - we seem to be in the "info-tainment" age. Movies, video games, sports, singing and dancing contests, real fall of Rome bread and circuses stuff.
I call it the post-Warhol economy.
splat- nope, info-tainment cannot possibly support "full employment." For every Hannah Montana there are 300 million unemployed people standing around chewing gum.
The fact is there is going to have to be an unwinding and reduction in U.S. forces in the Middle East as the U.S. dollar and economy enter the Third World instability and insolvency that has allowed serial speculative attacks in the past 15 years or so on various 'emerging' nations...the bounty for speculators and investment vultures just keep getting bigger and bigger...asking for, promoting, or believing in U.S. troop surges now is not realistic and maybe even delusional...our priorities have been with bailing out the Too Big To Fail banks globally...that's the reality...
Yup, point employment, short term contract only for the skills as needed. Allows for the removal of investment in staff development and price competition between the providers of service X. Development of skills becomes an expense of the service provider.
~splat
i gottag go do evening chores on the mini farm
(yeah i know i read LBD comments last nite about anybody who has less than 1000 acres aint for real
ok i admit it im a pansy farmer...but this is my hedge against the fall
crazyv and Rob Dawg and others can wack away at my p.o.v. while im gone and i will read it tonight
hey guys...we argued but kept it civil...best to ya
"i may not agree with what you have to say but i will fight to the death for your right to say it" patrick henry??
threetorches (profile) wrote on Wed, 11/4/2009 - 6:15 pm
dryfly - we seem to be in the "info-tainment" age. Movies, video games, sports, singing and dancing contests, real fall of Rome bread and circuses stuff.
Yes. Saying "alternate reality escapism" was a little too forward, I guess.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Hey I don't know... I just asked the question - seriously.
My wife also has an MS in Mfg but applies the 'lean principles' to office operations [and that really is what services are]... we talk a lot about it. There is so much 'muda' in office operations you could fire 2/3 to 3/4s of the people in them today and not skip a beat IF the place was structured lean and its coming. Middle managers who are not also 'experts' in something are absolutely toast - just a matter of time.
It is really is coming people. Too much money on the table to not happen.
If you don't touch the product or sit in front of the paying customer or actually provide the service - you are probably unnecessary. As conjure would say - 'Have a nice day'.
dryfly wrote:
As is so often the case Douglas Adams has the answer:
threetorches wrote:
I'm stealing that. Hope you don't mind.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Looks like Americans are REALLY changing their ways.
Cutting down on debt AND cutting fuel consumption.
dryfly wrote:
Less jobs for the average people again. I sure hope somebody figures out what to do with the average people.
"...asking for, promoting, or believing in U.S. troop surges now is not realistic and maybe even delusional...our priorities have been with bailing out the Too Big To Fail banks globally...that's the reality..."
OTOH, the international situation is looking more and more uncertain. The matter of Iran is beginning to spill over into US-Russian relations in an ominous way. One hopes the powers will maintain control.
Thanks Rob - I knew you'd have the answer though I thought it might be '42'.
The true
squid master of them all - Gallaxhar!
YouTube - Monsters vs aliens- tribute to Gallaxhar
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
You mean we can't send them all to Iraqistan?
Guest Post: Wall Street Journal Admits Economists Were Wrong, But Fails to Discuss their INCENTIVE for Being Wrong « naked capitalism
But I could be wrong about the opinions expressed above and the U.S. will go the route of complete militarization and more military adventurism in response to economic decline as has happened to other nations in the past facing hyperinflation or deflationary economic collapse...either way militarization may be a way to preserve the State in some form...
NaRm: Less jobs for the average people again. I sure hope somebody figures out what to do with the average people.
Simply tell us we are above average, and preferably: it is different this time.
I've already witnessed this happening. The remaining staff were ALL experienced and had significant skills and background in at least 4 or more areas. The folks who were super-specialized in just one specific facet of the biz.. BOOM.. gone.
~splat
' The History of every major Galactic Civilization tends to pass through three distinct and recognizable phases, those of Survival, Inquiry and Sophistication, otherwise known as the How, Why and Where phases.
For instance, the first phase is characterized by the question "How can we eat?", the second by the question "Why do we eat?" and the third by the question, "Where shall we have lunch?" '
The fourth question - courtesy of a science fiction writer I read recently (first name Bruce) - What do they have that we want?
There's probably a fifth question: ' Whom do we eat for lunch?'
"You mean we can't send them all to Iraqistan? "
The younger ones get sent to Irqaistan and the older ones to Wallystan.
Crazyv,
If you take your premise on Iraq seriously, we should have gone into Iran, not Iraq. Iran's pursuit of nuclear was/is well-known; while even I suspected Saddaam had buried a few cans of WMD, not many believed this was a serious threat.
Not that I think we should have gone after Iran. But while dilly-dallying with a land under which oil was buried, not WMDs (remember "This war will pay for itself!"--Cheney), we got as our reward a nuclear Iran and North Korea. Would the outcome have been the same without the invasion? Maybe, maybe not. But it would have saved a chunk of money, although that pain in the rear Sadaam would still be around.
Listen, and understand. That squid is out there.
It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear.
And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are bankrupt.
In 1979..
~splat
dryfly wrote:
A new policy would be: any job eliminated "wins" the employee a free ticket to Iraqistan, plus 30 days of free dental.
poic wrote:
I'm sure there is a connection there somewhere.
pavel.chichikov (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 11/4/2009 - 6:24 pm
There's probably a fifth question: ' Whom do we eat for lunch?'
Average people will be culled. Selling cannibalism is going to take some genius marketing though.
pavel - '...more and more uncertain.'
on U.S. - Russia relations.
Why... is Russia arming Iran? Or just backing them?
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
DUDE!! THIS has possiblities! If we can sell Buicks, we can do this. Merica LEADS the world in artful lying.
dryfly wrote:
That's a different answer, some say to the ultimate question. You know, like; "How many hungry manufacturers have you found who can wind my 2 1/2 axis over mandrel composite auto frames?"
Jefferson County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau
JPMorgan settles SEC 'pay-to-play' charges in Ala. - Yahoo! Finance
WASHINGTON (AP) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. has agreed to a settlement worth more than $700 million over federal regulators' charges that it made unlawful payments to friends of public officials to win municipal bond business in Jefferson County, Ala.
The Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday announced the settlement with JPMorgan, which canceled interest-rate swap contracts with the county worth $700 million in March. The move lowers the county's bond debt to about $3.2 billion from $3.9 billion, but officials had no immediate comment on whether that was enough to help the county avoid filing what would be the largest municipal bankruptcy ever.
If my math is correct, the fine citizens of Jefferson County, AL owe about $4853 to a squid-like creature calling itself Jamie.
Shine on you crazy Dimon.
RiF- just so; same thought!
NaRA- the average unskilled types will make and consume illegal drugs, I thought that was clear by now? And after awhile they will become stock for the prosecution-and-prison industry.
That or they will join the military. Heck, why can't they do both? The rest of us will watch "Cops and War" on TV.
"Selling cannibalism is going to take some genius marketing though."
The siege of Leningrad. The Soviet collectivization of the 30s. You'd be surprised what hunger will make people do.
By George Washington of Washington’s Blog.
Yesterday, Elliot Spitzer said that the White House’s defense of the financial status quo will give Republicans powerful ammunition in the 2010 elections.
Democratic cheerleader Markos Moulitsas (the “Kos” behind Daily Kos) wrote the following about the Democratic losses in several state elections:
Democratic turnout collapsed. This is a base problem, and this is what Democrats better take from tonight:
… If you water down reform in favor of Blue Dogs and their corporate benefactors, you will lose votes…
If you forget why you were elected — … financial services … reform — you will lose votes.
Tonight proved conclusively that we’re not going to turn out just because you have a (D) next to your name, or because Obama tells us to. We’ll turn out if we feel it’s worth our time and effort to vote, and we’ll work hard to make sure others turn out if you inspire us with bold and decisive action.
The choice is yours. Give us a reason to vote for you, or we sit home.
People elected Obama in the hope that he would be different from Bush. But in the most important ways, he is just continuing Bushand Clinton’s (think repeal of Glass-Steagall) worst policies.
Both the Republican and Democratic party leadership have become lapdops for the big banks and the status quo. Neither are open to real reform or change.
The Democrats haven’t broken up the too big to fails. They haven’t restored Glass-Steagall. They haven’t really reigned in credit default swaps. They haven’t pushed for honest accounting or forced the giants to put their toxic SIV-hidden assets back on their books.
People are sick and tired of both parties’ catering to the big boys. Indeed, given last night’s election results and the Dems’ utter failure to institute any real financial reform, trend forecaster Gerald Calente’s prediction that a third party candidate will win the 2012 presidential election is sounding a little less crazy.
The bankruptcy courts ran night and day. We were that close to going out forever.
But there was one man who taught us to fight, to storm the wire of the camps, to smash those squid motherfuckers into junk. He turned it around. He brought us back from the brink. His name is CR. Your son, Sarah, your unborn son.
I always just hope there will be bi-lateral or multi-lateral weapons & military reduction programs from cost cutting and funding reductions...dream on...the theme in the 60's was that the generals were bumbling 'idiots'...the idiot theory...
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Yeah, but we need to do it with out inconveniencing the above average "expert" people, say - having a nice evening out. Siege isn't a good concept. Have your people call my people, I think we can work on this.
" pavel - '...more and more uncertain.'
on U.S. - Russia relations.
Why... is Russia arming Iran? Or just backing them? "
Russia always threatens to arm Iran. But, to my understanding, the question is whether or not Russia will support a boycott of Iran.
There are also outstanding issues involving the Russian sphere of influence, which the West can in turn use as leverage. It's just been announced, for example, that the US will hold military exercise in the Baltic next year.
International tension builds over Iran. This, IMHO, is serious.
Where can you find a whale to eat
?.
RARE PHOTOS: Sperm Whale EATS Giant Squid
Well said! Nuff said
poic wrote:
A new name for an economist.
Dude, I'm not an economist, dude. They don't know anything, I'm a trend forecaster, dude.
If WWIII is really looming as the neo-Lib and neo-Con 'hawks' presume...then STOP wasting all the friggin' fiat money on failed Big Banks and worthless toxic financial waste...please...
Thank you.
The Iran sales job though has some distinct similiarities to the Iraq sales job...where's the weapons?
merchants of fear wrote:
Unless "they" know isn't not going to be quite ww3, but just - maybe - Badistan squared; and they need enough loot to buy some quiet island someplace, like New Zealand. So, the squid is purposeful.
Pavel, I am afraid that region of the world is in for more troubled times ahead.
The recent turmoil in Iran, along with the Russian response to the Georgia situation, Russian control of European nat gas and energy supplies, our presence in Iraq, Afghanistan, and several of the other 'stans, it all adds up to a volatile and dangerous brew.
The biggest difference that I have observed between B/O is the energy. The last two were obsessed, one with war and one with sex. It appears history will tell us sex on the mind was much better than war on the mind.
merchants of fear wrote:
Didn't you see those two semi's pass by? Our super secret spy agency (no, even MORE secret than the one you just thought of - as I'm working for them and monitoring your thoughts I know what you are thinking - anyway, we're) keeping track of these semi's now. They're in Iran. 5th & L street.
Time to break out my old "Ayatollah is an assohola" t shirt.
It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear.
And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are bankrupt.
Oh thank goodness. I'm almost there. What a relief.
Sorry, MaryAnn - Kosovo ring any bells? Things are never as simple as they may appear.
"Pavel, I am afraid that region of the world is in for more troubled times ahead.
The recent turmoil in Iran, along with the Russian response to the Georgia situation, Russian control of European nat gas and energy supplies, our presence in Iraq, Afghanistan, and several of the other 'stans, it all adds up to a volatile and dangerous brew."
I agree, threetorches.
The negative sales pitch and 'fear' close...the WMDs and 'terrorists' are 'everywhere'
Where are the WMDs?
'Don't worry THEY (the WMDs) are there somewhere...or will be...or could be...or hey you want 'em to attack America?'
With what...the WMD's they don't have yet.
'Yes'... 'Just be scared...of the Unknown if that works!'
Mr Slippery wrote:
There, fixed it for ya
" It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear.
And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are bankrupt.
Oh thank goodness. I'm almost there. What a relief. "
If you're bankrupt it'll offer you cash for organs. It doesn't stop EVER.
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 11/4/2009 - 6:32 pm
pavel.chichikov wrote:
The siege of Leningrad.
Yeah, but we need to do it with out inconveniencing the above average "expert" people, say
That's easy - teach them that they are special, give them incomes and positions in society that reflect this notion, and a suprisingly large number of them will cease to care what happens to those who came from inferior wombs or made bad choices with their lives.
curses
again!!!