FOMC Statement: Low Rates for Extended Period
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Wed, 11/04/2009 - 11:23am (223 comments)
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The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.
translation: it's gonna suck for an extended period, unless you can borrow at ZIRP and lend at 30%
Foist! Er, perhaps not. Faust?
No worries about the dollar carry trade. Carry on!
My zombie bank rejoices.
"The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted."
That's a sop to the inflationista camp. Otherwise, it's a
Gold and Silver to the moon Alice!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Good. WF can keep the interest on its savings account @ 0.05%.
Summary: The Fed continues to studiously ignore its mandate to preserve the value of the dollar in favor of pursing the ultimately futile goal of preserving asset prices.
Basel Too wrote:
In other words CHANGE we can believe in!!
Well, I was wrong. Nothing at all that I can see.
Other than a quick divot in a few charts.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Or perhaps the goal is to divert attention while the nobility is lowering the lifeboats, and raiding the ship's safe.
And in other news:
"Delinquencies in commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) accelerated in October, according to a report from Barclays Capital (BarCap).
The 30-plus day delinquency rate jumped 41bps to 5.5% in October as current loans deteriorated and transferred to special servicers. For the past three months, delinquencies have grown an average of 34bps, and BarCap analysts expect the pace to increase through 2009 and into 2010."
CR,
Note: I doubt the Fed will raise rates for a long time.
Care to detail that? post 2010? later than that?
Extended period of time = another lost decade.
Is it best for me to learn to speak Zirp in Japanese or Spanish going forward?
translation: it's gonna suck for an extended period, unless you can borrow at ZIRP and plow that money into whatever speculative instruments happen to catch your eye, confident that the taxpayer will ultimately back your losses if you're wrong
Just a minor edit there for ya, Basel.
dafox wrote:
When the sun is a burnt out cinder?
Extended period of time = another lost decade.
Well, aren't we the reckless optimist all of a sudden.
fed cant raise rates,need more bad loans so prices can fall slowly. on the next go around. right?
So now my bet is the bill for UE benefits and extension/expansion of homebuyers credit will PASS today.
And that's ball game, minus some wobble in the markets as the news gets 'digested.'
Rob Dawg:
I agree with your last comment! It's like they need to keep the common man from grabbing the pitch forks, while they ransack whatever is left to be had.
and others are getting ready to take advantage of this last super bubble, short it out, and retreat back to their estates! 
So, what to invest in during a lost decade? What would an Anti-Warren do? NOT Warren, the anti version of Warren. In our alternate anti-hopium universe. I'm talking LONG TERM anti-growth investments. Buy and anti-hold.
rates to remain low until moral improves
Sorry, that was for NOTaREALmerican....
OT - Politics
Interesting analysis of the CA-10 Congressional race from yesterday's election:
The Seminal » CA-10: Today’s Neglected California Election
Also, a good slap at WaPo for calling NY-23 the only Congressional election this cycle.
The MSM just aren't reporting on it yet.
Hope everyone in the market is having a good day.
Later
angry saver
i gave it 30years(a score and a decade) youre giving another decade, 40 years?
"The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted."
Close your eyes now, children, go to sleep, off to dreamland now . . .
scone wrote:
...and all stops get taken out, in both directions.
Overlooked Addendum: Starting with the 2010 FOMC minutes all publications will be released in Kanji.
Yalt wrote:
Did you see TBT wiggle?
TBT Fund Quote - ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF Fund Quote - TBT Quote - TBT Fund Price
Or Elmer: baa-da-baa-da-baa-da DATS ALL FOLKS!
from another blog.
"The Fed said there was a limited availability of the securities" - Thats frekin huge. That means they are admitting that they own now pretty much all the MBS.
yalt-
just noticed that too.
Ciao
MS
GDD9000 wrote:
Foisted on your own petard?
poic wrote:
Pimpco finished unloading?
The damage has been done. Bernanke sat back and allowed bonus seeking bankers to poison the money supply with fraudulent credit.
We should bite the bullet and wipe out the bad debt immediately. If faux wealth vanishes so be it.
Bernanke can't do what is urgently required for many reasons. One is he would have to admit the utter incompetence of the fed. Another is his handlers (the banks, politicians and holders of faux wealth) would immediately run him out of town.
The majority are screwed. Fed independence is a ruse.
poic wrote:
That was a reference to agency debt, not MBS.
Oh, look, it's writing some sort of message! A....L....W....V....M....what can it mean? I'm sure it must have some deep significance???
What is the problem? Doves vs. hawks? Riddles and media/internet minutiae?
The dollar must go. Why? The answer must be found in the riddles and media/internet minutiae.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Will Nippon still be a sovereign nation then?
"That was a reference to agency debt, not MBS. "
There isn't much origination going on right now other than agency is there?
Angry Saver wrote:
But we're not "the majority". We're the anti-hopium vanguard. We should be able to anti-invest accordingly becuase WE are right.
looks like a little atrial fib on the DOW
Rob Dawg wrote:
Starting with the 2010 FOMC minutes all publications will be released in Hanzi.--there, fixed that for ya.
do we have the EKG market today?
Agency debt isn't mortgage-backed--it's money borrowed by the agencies themselves.
Comrade Elmer Fudd wrote:
I was just going to mention that! NASDAQ too-
yalt, so they're done buying everything the rest of the world needed to offload then?
Media 'Analysis' -
Media /some internet riddles & minutiae (disinfo) -
'This is a sweet spot. The stimulus is still strong. The economy continues to improve.'
looks like a little atrial fib on the DOW - CEF
Also Nasdaq, and S & P. But right now it looks like it's just a blip. It takes a while to digest a nothingburger. Lots of gas...
Cinco-X wrote:
Or for that matter, anything and everything tradeable.
It may look pointless, but not if you're the one pocketing the transaction fees/spreads.
NaRm,
I anti-invested over a decade ago. If you're going to panic, panic first.
Prisoner's dilemma - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
I am glad I am 95% bonds now...
Just waiting for the inevitable collapse
Dr. Bernanke we've got a pulse but it's weak, what should I do?
100cc's of Zirp intraveneously STAT!
Microsoft confirms 800 job cuts
Microsoft confirms 800 job cuts
Just waiting for the inevitable collapse
The collapse scenario is small imo. My out look remains unchanged - the opportunity to make money from money (at least at reasonable levels of risk) will continue to disappear.
Insane leverage has already made claims that can't be met. Bernanke is propping up the value of fraudulent credit. He's pledging future output to pay for past fraud.
A total rip-job.
Here's what's really moving the markets:
Investing: When baseball is more than just a game MarketWatch First Take - MarketWatch
The day to day gyrations are high noise. In a day trading world, it's a perpetual disconnect.
poic wrote:
I'm not sure I understand the question, poic. "Agency debt" is a pretty specific category--it's money borrowed by Fannie or Freddie to fund their operations, and it's quite separate from MBSs of every type.
I was hoping there was something in the compleat ubernerd posts on MBSs that explained the difference between MBS and agency debt, but I guess there isn't.
What the Fed said:
"Basically, the economy still sucks."
Why?
1. Job Losses continuing.
2. Credit tight to non-existent although billions spent to get it flowing again.
3. Housing prices in the dumps and still decreasing.
4. Businesses not spending.
5. Inventories are being cut back to match decreased sales volume.
6. Households forced to spend more because costs for food, energy and gas are increasing.
7. No one knows when in hell things are going to pick back up.
8. But we will continue to fight deflation by pumping massive amounts of liquidity into the markets.
Not even the one token vote against.
Time to go play musical tires again...bye and thanks all.
Gosh, just noticed that I have to find my DOW 10K hat
now, where is it?
stability
Multiple uses per usual. We've had 6 or 7 months of 'stability', when are we going to get the ballistic recovery the markets have priced in?
dafox, my view is late 2010 at the earliest, probably later. It is hard to forecast out more than a year ... but I don't see a rate increase in the next 12 months.
I've been endlessly amused by the people who think the Fed will tighten soon.
best wishes
With interest rates at close to ZIRP here, Cashman, Roubini, and oh so many more have talking nervously about the US dollar as the carry trade of the world. Funny, but I always thought that in order to have a carry trade OUT of a country, it took more than low interest rates. It actually took savings and creditor standing for the trade to have security, be stable, and become secular. What they are describing, we use to call capital flight and if it gets out of control, an inflationary depression.
yalt,
I was under the impression that China and others had owned a huge amount of FNM/FRE agency debt and started dumping it a year ago and the FED bought all of it.
We've got a pulse Dr. Bernanke.
What the Fed said: "Basically, the economy still sucks." - s
And since we have no idea what we're doing, we'll just continue with that. After all, we still have jobs!
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Just so long as you don't confuse people like me who say the Fed "needs" to raise rate soon with those sillies who think the Fed "will" raise rates soon.
Bernanke himself said it, all the ZIRP in the world ain't gonna fix the problem without strong political action to complement the monetary policy. but, as with japan, the political will simply isn't here.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default.htm
But in the short run, comprehensive economic reform will likely impose large costs on many, for example, in the form of unemployment or bankruptcy. As a natural result, politicians, economists, businesspeople, and the general public in Japan have sharply disagreed about competing proposals for reform. In the resulting political deadlock, strong policy actions are discouraged, and cooperation among policymakers is difficult to achieve.
In short, Japan's deflation problem is real and serious; but, in my view, political constraints, rather than a lack of policy instruments, explain why its deflation has persisted for as long as it has.
poic wrote:
That's one way to flood the market with dollars, i.e. try to trigger inflation.
The Committee will maintain deep, steady voices and continues to anticipate that conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally deep voices, and potentially throat clearing, for an extended period.
scone, you still here?
NYAG Cuomo's Antitrust Lawsuit Against Intel Alleges Billions in Bribes
NEW YORK V. INTEL CORP.
(U.S. Dist. Ct., Del., Nov. 4, 2009) - Accusing Silicon Valley's Intel of "bribery and coercion to maintain a stranglehold on the market," New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo filed an antitrust lawsuit against the chip-making giant.
China and Japan both held quite a bit.
What makes it confusing is that a lot of the reporting on foreign holdings of agency debt doesn't observe the distinction the Fed does between agency debt and agency-issued MBSs. I don't think Treasury's reports even do. So it's hard to know just what they've dumped.
But, yeah, "the limited availability of agency debt" probably means foreign holdings are minimal.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Hmmm.......The Fed raises rates, any anyone holding long, low interest notes gets creamed. Inflation takes off, and anyone holding long, low interest notes gets creamed.
When do they start just giving money away, no need to repay, here have some cash. Well doing that for folks other than Goldman Squid.
~splat
The Blue Plate Special @ Cagey B's, is an bottomless tureen of stone soup...
Decade at Bennie's continues! Pass the embalming fluid I am starting to sober up!
naw, that looked more like a PVC...
Rob, I think there is a clear difference. There is a debate on whether the Fed should raise rates, but I think the history of the Fed is pretty clear - they won't.
best wishes
I don't know what's most surprising.. that they only figured this out now, they've been doing this since the very early 90's.... or that they are actually trying to prosecute. I guess SOMEONE didn't get the campaign contributions in on time !
~splat
Mook wrote:
My word, I laughed hard at that.
The dollar just got kicked in the nads.
Cinco-X wrote:
I'm not sure that follows...unless they've borrowed short to lend long. I wouldn't expect long rates to go up, if that's what you meant to say.
DOW 6000 wrote:
I am almost 100% in bonds. No equities.
Doubling my
stake on this announcement. in my view, the FED HAS LOST CONTROL!!!!!! Balance sheet is out of line, and who knows whats going on behind the curtain w/ the primary dealers!
poic wrote:
Quick, everyone package up every little piece of crap they can into a new security so that we can get more cash from the fed.
Hurry, hurry, hurry!!!!
Come on Gold $4 dollars and bingo $1100
translation: it's gonna suck for an extended period, unless you can borrow at ZIRP and lend at 30%
Like citi? (has anyone said that yet?)
noob goldberg wrote:
Ever wish you could pay your taxes in illiquid securities? Bad idea, but I expect to see it floated at some point.
For those who don't speak fedspeak via Denniger:
FOMC In English - The Market Ticker
It's funny......up until you realize the gravity of it.
Ciao
MS
That fact that msnBS, cnBS and J6P American cannot piece together what "will maintain low rates for an extended period of time" says about the state of the economy and what it implies for unemployment going forward is pretty sad.
splat wrote:
1 Microsoft Corp $3,243,389 72% 27%
2 Google Inc $1,666,496 82% 18%
3 Cisco Systems $1,414,419 65% 35%
4 Hewlett-Packard $1,189,434 62% 37%
5 IBM Corp $1,110,943 74% 25%
6 Oracle Corp $940,923 72% 28%
7 Intel Corp $828,705 56% 44%
Almost 30 years ago people could get a loan, but @ close to 20%.
Today, most folks can't get a loan if they really need it, regardless of the interest rate.
Shill, Bernanke admitted to David Hale, a "noted" economist, that he had lost complete control in June, 2008. But I would have told David "but please don't tell anyone". Ha, Ha, Ha
Yalt wrote:
I'm not sure that follows...unless they've borrowed short to lend long. I wouldn't expect long rates to go up, if that's what you meant to say.
If you bought a 10yr. bond with an interest rate of 3%, and rates went to 4%, the immediate value of that bond would fall. However, if you held that bond, and inflation goes to 10%, the real return rate goes to to -6%
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
I can get a loan, but then again, I don't really need it. I still sometimes get those checks in the mail from my credit card company, wanting me to buy stuff on credit a different way.
Hmmm. Most folks not getting a loan would put the banks out of biz. Nah, most folks still can. Some can't.
Is that right?
I understand that, cinco. I just don't think the 10-year would necessarily go up if the fed raised (in fact, I suspect it would drop). Maybe I'm in the minority here, but if in some alternate universe the fed were to raise now they'd be guaranteeing some serious and lengthy deflation and there'd be a lot of demand for longer bonds.
volume gone now....
Ciao
MS
,rad some,
I too could easily get a loan, but I don't need one.
There's a few people like us, but most of the hoi ploy can only drool at the prospect...
MS wrote:
Fedspeak: Activity in the housing sector has increased over recent months.
English: Four year olds and cats are cashing the $8,000 homebuyer credit, as the IRS has recently disclosed. This of course supports housing.
Fedspeak: Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will support a strengthening of economic growth and a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.
English: Fraud always works for a while. We can buy trash MBS, for example, and by doing so make things look better than they are. We can also ignore the real capital position of the banks that are our under jurisdiction, including those really big ones that shorted Gold in the futures market at $1,000 and now are way underwater. Never mind that little man behind the curtain, I AM THE GREAT AND WONDERFUL OZ!
Most sharp responsible people won't barrow right now. The real "Buy Lamp" hasn't come on yet.
When will gold crack 1100? That would be a fun poll.
some investory guy..I'm about ready to pony up on chase for 15-25K at 1.99% until 1/2011
they play games by making all payments towards lowest percentage rate cash advance, while any current balance just grows at 11% until you pay low rate down......
I paid my balance and now am considering splurging on a diamond for the GF to end my single days...
Is it just me.. or is there just a little 'over exuberance' about gold right now ? or perhaps more importantly is that exuberance misplaced ?
~splat
Oooh CCLT! Make sure you fill us in so we can all congratulate you!
Whats a Loan?
I prefer the old fashion way, earn it, then invest it, and hopefully sit back and watch it grow....
For anyone who wants to know when the Fed will start raising rates, watch employment. It won't begin tightening until we've got monthly net job creation again for a quarter or two. Employment is a pretty slow-moving indicator, so a double-edged sword: It'll take a while to go positive again (a year, anyway, IMO), but we'll get a 3-6 month heads-up before the Fed starts raising rates. That would put it sometime in 2011.
Take full advantage of those ARMs in the meantime.
Sebastian
When will gold crack 1100? That would be a fun poll.
- Maybe by the end of the day!
Yalt wrote:
My original point was that we're screwed either way. BTW, I didn't say that the 10yr. bond would go up; I said "If you bought a 10yr. bond with an interest rate of 3%, and rates went to 4% [i.e. rates went up], the immediate value of that bond would fall".
It's just you, splat.
See those ads at top and bottom of this page? GOLD! GOLD! And everyone knows that the surefire path to riches is buy whatever the internet shills are hawking. It worked for penis extenders, it worked for real estate...it'll work this time too.
As far as I can tell, my zombie is still making loans. But, you've got to be more worthy now. Rumor is we actually expect the loans to be paid off at some point in the future.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
I'd have to pull the exact wording back out, but won't they be forced to credit payments toward the highest interest outstanding balance early next year? In that case, it could be pretty cool.
Outsider wrote:
But a short one; it's presently $6 away-
Show us the jobs, the Fed says
OK, true, you didn't specify which rate you meant. But your statement is only true if the ten-year rate went up. If you buy a 10yr bond with an interest rate of 3% and short-term rates go to 4% but the curve inverts so badly that the 10-year rate drops below 3, the immediate value of that bond would go up.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
If she's a really good woman, you'll have no regrets. BTW, it seems that credit problems before marriage are a good predictor of marital problems. Hope she is responsible.
damn, NaRM! I thought you were radio silent due to being whisked away to DC for final vetting as train czar...
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
No wonder your bank is a zombie
Sebastian wrote:
It appears to be more economic to take advantage of the legal system backup and stop paying your mortgage altogether.
scone, you still here? - n
Yes. Not a surprise. Cuomo wants a score to help his career, and antitrust is a popular one. If he did a smackdown on the banksters, I'd sit up and take notice. INTC is up on the news.
some investor guy wrote:
credit problems after marriage are also a good predictor of marital problems (though I suppose the prediction comes a bit late to help...)
I think it's interesting that real rates in Japan have risen 300 bps in the past year. Sounds like the BoJ is in big trouble. If they go down CBs all over the world may follow in their steps.
A Sebastian sighting! How fun!
The Fed doesn't have the luxury of acting on their own time table for much longer. Decisions will be forced upon them by external, global factors. Claiming what the Fed will or won't do one year from now is risky at best. Leaders of a dying, stagnant empire are always the last to know they are leading a dying and stagnant empire.
ac wrote:
Hu's got their backs.
some investor guy
Is that within the new credit card bill signed by congress? that would be great.....love it..
Out of work?
The Government is Hiring......again.
U.S. Needs Hit Squads, ‘Manhunting Agency’
U.S. Needs Hit Squads, ‘Manhunting Agency’: Spec Ops Report | Danger Room | Wired.com
Xe2
LMAO: my bottom ad from Capital One says two year CDs pay 2.3%. That assumes Cap One is still in biz in 2 years, right?
Take a name asswipe wrote:
Like Japan? In the short term, I'm more concerned about Japan, Spain, Mexico, maybe Italy.
Reprise post...after today's rate announcement...
Currency Crisis Contagion studies...
'We have strong evidence that currency crisis tend to spread along regional lines suggested by international trade...Countries tend to suffer speculative attacks after foreign competetors are attacked.'
Also...'When markets perceive that conditions such as high unemployment (or consumer weakness) or a weak banking system compromise the central bank's willingness to defend a currency peg.'
FRBSF: Economic Letter - How Do Currency Crises Spread? (8/28/98)
Policy outcomes...Growth in the money supply, gold price spikes, more dollar speculative attacks, devaluation of the dollar, currency crisis contagion...
shill wrote:
The only thing I fear more than a platoon of determined rangers is a squad of desperate cougars in fishnets and heavy makeup.
Take a name asswipe wrote:
These end-of-empire things take forever. Way to much normalcy in-between the steps down. I'd predict that everybody will be here in 3 years waiting for the official end-of-empire notice on CNN.
But a short one; it's presently $6 away-
$4 now. Pretty amazing.
What a headline! "Fed sticks to its script"
Let's analyze that: "script" is an old English word for worthless scraps of paper issued in lieu of good cash.
Greenspan was criticized for helping cause the bubble by not raising rates.
Put two and two together: Bernanke is printing worthless paper, "script", and this, too, will end badly in a year or so. Meanwhile the price of gold is skyrocketing.
GOT GOLD? Because the Fed is printing "script"!
And because the Fed and Bernanke have been so good at predicting crises and mitigating them, you can rest assured that they'll raise rates just in time to prevent rampant price inflation.
Savers and fixed income folks needn't worry.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
"Credit card companies will be required to apply excess payments to the highest interest balance first" Fact Sheet: Reforms to Protect American Credit Card Holders | The White House
Outsider wrote:
We're all fixated on a 1% change in
, but completely ignoring another -3.6% day for natural gas. $4 by the end of the week?
Outsider wrote:
$3 @14:21
shill wrote:
Due process is for losers-
they play games by making all payments towards lowest percentage rate cash advance
That's going to change very soon, it was one of the reforms passed.
I maxed out a Chase card at that 1.99% two year deals this summer, so that I could splat a shitload of cash into a SEP-IRA.
If someone said, on friday , we would have a HUGE M/A deal with Berkshire involved and the Fed continuing the cheap easy money (for the selected few) and the Dow would remain below 10k I would have laughed out-loud. Something else is afoot.....possible we get some other Fed announcement in a day or two.
In any case it signals to me that days like this (+1% or so) are distribution days......
Just a hunch.
Ciao
MS
JimPortlandOR wrote:
If it's FDIC insured, does it really matter?
$3...to Gold $1100
Or 30. I've got friends in the UK who only really, truly, finally understood that their empire was over in the last year or so. They thought London still had financial control, at least, and what else matters after all....
A few days back there were rumblings of dissatisfaction from the market about BoJ projected issuance:
Japan’s Bonds Drop a 4th Day After 20-Year Auction Demand Cools - Bloomberg.com
It seems that the new government will have to limit its borrowing for "stimulus" spending, as the demand for additional JGB's is limited.
some investory guy-
She worked for same employer for 25 years, 800+fica, no debt outside of home shes not underwater, chinese but speaks better english than 90% of pop.. plus she lets me hunt, surf, fish and hike with the boys...never calls me...
her only wish is a nice rock..no big marriage...
I'm doing it..probably honeymoon in Greece next year when flying over to see U2 in athens...
thinking of putting that on that cc card to celebrate the fed as the greatest....snark
Rob Dawg wrote:
Has anybody got that poll up yet?
noob goldberg wrote:
Glod is for dating. Natgas is for marrying. Yes, the real news is not just that natgas is getting a reality check but that oil is ignoring that same reality.
noob goldberg wrote:
-
is waiting to latch the blood funnel into Nat. Gas when winter starts and it gets cold out! This will be the next pump and dump, I may jump on soon...... What do you think?
Yalt wrote:
That's an interesting comment. Do you think this is being realized country wide? What class-level are your friends at?
I see Gold got to 1099.....
close enough for me...
Ciao
MS
Rob Dawg wrote:
Yes, and my wife is really unhappy about it, although it provides me endless hours of entertainment-
Git yer gold now or be priced out forever
gold price
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Ahhhh Now THAT is an interesting optimistic comment. A perfectly normal plan to be in Europe as the empire's end is being predicted.
Disclaimer: I'm paying for part of a trip next year to Italy now. I'm assuming our empire, its squid, and Italians will still be here.
Okay MS where's your source? Because mine still says 1096. Must be lagging data.
credit, congrats!
Make sure the rock isn't too big. Leaves bad gashes on your face after she gets angry (:
time to buy some dzzzzzzz....
$1097.60!!
I finally broke down recently and bought some long dated GLD calls sensing a possible momentum move here. I can't quite get myself to buy much of the real thing, but I figure the risk reward is good with the calls if gold does a moonshot. Not much to lose if it collapses.
Serious market question. Looking at the NAZ and SP hourly swings and the VIX are down? Options markets sleeping?
Getting rid of your barbarous now, is downright barbarous.
As if there is another Plan G...
credit, you know what Erma Bombeck said: I know I married too young. But when you're 40 and in love, who can tell you anything?
Live Market Quotes
HOD shows 1099.
Ciao
MS
notarealamerican-
if the shit hits the fan, might as well plug your nose and enjoy the breeze..
tickets are paid for...
Very well-off professionals. Lloyd's underwriters and brokers, mostly. From their perspective I'm not sure they were wrong--they were every bit as much on top of the world as the big WS firms.
That's odd. GTU not acting like holdings of Gold? Whereas GLD Is up by 1%... strange spread...
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
I agree. Real life is real, not numbers.
Serious market question. Looking at the NAZ and SP hourly swings and the VIX are down? Options markets sleeping?
Mr. Market up means Mr. VIX down, pretty much.
If it's FDIC insured, does it really matter?
It may not matter much, but maybe a little. If a bank fails, sure, you get your money back plus interest from the FDIC if you're under the insurance limits. But you may get your money back before the 2 years or be offered a lower interest rate. Or the new bank may honor the original terms of your CD.
Yeah, but what you're missing is...SRS just went GREEN!
It seems to me the scenario would work like this:
Ministry of Finance has to raise rates to sell enough debt
Yen spikes short term due to the interest rate differential, crushing exports more
Increased rates mean the increased interest cost can't be covered by new issuance
BoJ prints yen to cover debt burden; yen collapses as the market flees rapidly devaluing currency,
Eric wrote:
And look at JPM plunging through the lows of the day. Somebody finally read your post....
Well, after holding almost a year, I finally followed Rich and sold GDX. I may be early, but I have a nice fat profit and I mean to keep it.
Thanks, Rich.
" November 4, 2009
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is scheduled to travel to Japan on Nov. 10 for a two-day visit, during which he will meet with senior Japanese government officials, AP reported Nov. 4, citing a statement by the Treasury Department. On Nov. 12, Geithner will travel to Singapore to participate in an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum of finance ministers."
tncubsfan wrote:
Given the fundamental reports (yeah I know, how naive of me), it appears the
has already been pumping it for many weeks. Maybe this is finally the dump?
You misspelled "Fed" and "dollar."
I hadn't looked at this chart in a few eeeks, but the Baltic Dry Index is up about 50% in the last 5 or so weeks! Interesting. However, the index is down 72% from it's all time high of last May.
And yet AUY the gold miner is at the same place it was about 2 yrs. ago.
weeks
MS-
I agree on distribution...last couple days seemed setup to do just that...
Does the BoJ sell debt? I thought it was the Treasury equivalent?
So higher yen will lead to lower yen, basically?
Making my head hurt.
Outsider wrote:
Look at GG, then. Lots of differences between miners
Perhaps to beg them not to start selling Treasuries? I'm going to be watching the TIC data.
poic and outsider-thanks for the congrats..
True, inventory continues to build to near full capacity, but as you joked, that doesn't seem to matter very much. It could also be a constant process by
to pump and dump. Ultimately, I think they eye the past high prices and want to get it near that level again somehow! Is nat. gas. an easier commodity to manipulate than many others?
I certainly wouldn't rush into natty gas.....I've seen many articles abut how we have way too much domestically. Sure it could be based on discoveries and not actuality and I'm also aware that some of it is noise....but I wouldn't be making much of a rush to get into something that had a supply overhang like that.
100 years supply of natural gas - Google Search
Ciao
MS
Words read much too seldom.
Outsider wrote:
Your kids? Mine seem to know everything
Even GG appears to have been higher in mid-08 if my glance is correct. When has gold almost hit 1100 before? I know the miners don't exactly correlate, but I would've thought they'd be tracking a little closer.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
But keep your mouth closed-
tncubsfan wrote:
I have no idea. I usually defer to some of the other posters on this board for their expertise in the energy market. Like the poster with that in his name.
All time highs of amount of natural gas in storage, plus pricing above that suggested by yield curve...
supply
Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
.
the yield curve stuff is behind paywall
traderwalt wrote:
So nothing lost then?
CCLT - It isn't congrats until she says yes.
Outsider wrote:
Yes, miners got dumped along with almost all other stocks last fall. Some people seem to be going into the paper metal (GLD etc.) because it held up better in the crash. So the miners have some more catching up to do.
Good point. I edited...Ministry of Finance is the Treasury equivalent, that actually issues the govt debt. Bank of Japan sets short term interest rate targets.
My theory about yen movement is based on the idea that a rise in rates would attract money to Japan short term, but that over time the size of the government debt burden and the higher interest payments would require yen printing. I could be completely off base.
This just hit Bloomberg: Japan’s Bond Futures Fall as Fujii Signals Debt Supply to Rise - Bloomberg.com
"Japanese bonds fell after Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii said the government will likely use debt sales to meet a tax revenue shortfall, raising concern increased supply will overwhelm demand."
dying and stagnant not the same as dead as rotten, patience.
''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''
Maestro jr. losing his mojo. Statements that shoud get the pump monkeys chain f#cking causes a sell off, as his last statement did. He's in a box in the corner. The unwind caused by his failed policies will make many long for the stability of 2008.
Volume picking up again....musical chairs it would seem.
Ciao
MS
Nat. Gas draw-downs always occur during the winter months. This winter is supposed to be unusually cold, which may draw to supplies into a more normal, albeit higher, 5 year storage range. With a little media manipulation and the general run-up in commodities, I'd say Nat. Gas can be driven much higher during the winter. IMO
If the great unwashed public wanted to invest in the barbarous, they would most likely buy mining stocks, as opposed to the real thing.
Will there be an instance of mining stocks being woefully overvalued for a time, as they are about the only vehicular one can stick into a 401k?
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
It sure wouldn't surprise me if that happened.
From today's News from 1930
An interesting new use for old rail cars and locomotives has been discovered by an enterprising Midwestern showman: taking the old equipment and staging sensational train wrecks, to which he charges $1 a head admission. The first show netted over $16,000.
Some have suggested that watching the economy is like watching a train wreck. Here's a guy who made money on that premise.
Dollar snapback & market crash? How low would the dollar be by then?
Roubini is saying when IT unravels (this bubble)...everyone that's shorting dollars will try and get out of those positions at the same time and there'll be a stampede. (Marketwatch)
MOOOOOOOOOH! Booyaah!!
Will the exits get crowded in the stock market too when the Crash 'happens'?
MOOOOOOOOOOOOH! BooyaAAAAAAH!
shill at 1240
those 800 microsoft job cuts
are in addition to the 5000 they scheduled to eliminate last january (over an 18 month period
so my take on the story is that they upped 5k cuts to 5.8k and did the deed in half the projected time
translation , "we here at microsoft think the economy is seriously fuc&'d"
Microsoft confirms 800 job cuts
.
Just curious........isn't this kinda like putting a picture of a "roast beef sandwich" on the wall for when the appetite needs satisfying?
BS. They could indicate an irresponsible or immature love interest, but are often just an indicator of youth, poverty, and/or someone good at ripping off the man:
"You can garnish my fat you-know-what, MoFos! Unemployed grad student, so in your face! And stop calling' my iphone, Jack, cause I ain't got no money for your bill-collector ass!"
Could be a turn-on, if the attitude matches the drapes, or something like that.
fried,
you are welcome.
rosethorn, sometimes when you're a creditor nation like Japan, have bled your workers to the point they can't save anymore, ya gotta cash in some of those bonds and other assets you've accumulated around the world over the last 50 years, forget about exports, allow your currency to go up in value and your interest rates to stay down, and party like it's 1999. After all, they owe it to themselves. Ha,Ha,Ha
merchants of fear wrote:
I've appreciated Roubini in the past, but if he's attempting to predict that sort of market dynamic, I think he's gone off his rocker. The dollar is so inter-related with everything that I think it's incorrect to think of it as some bubble stock that will simply correct. The potential for a USD correction implicates every single market, which means it's as unpredictable as shooting a harpoon at a school of fish and predicting which way they'll swerve.
We have some gifted writers in the commentariat!
sportsfan wrote:
Looking at the map of CA-10, one is given to presume that it is full of dopey limousine liberals. I wouldn't draw any conclusions about the results of this election, my guess is, those people are so self-deluded that they will be the last to abandon Obama.
scone wrote:
Yes, but now we want to monitor the size and composition of your balance sheet. Unfortunately, due to Tools like Mel Watt, we aren't going to get that chance.
JimPortlandOR and Cinco-X,
I was speaking about what has happened to the terms of CDs at banks that have failed in the past few years. Nothing in life is without some kind of risk, as far as I'm concerned. For instance there's opportunity cost that you might lose if the rate is lowered. If you are worried about risks to CDs, go the the FDIC website or call them at their toll free number. Their information specialists are quite good in my estimation and answered my questions. One of their attorneys is also available to answer complicated legal questions, too. Again, try calling them or goggle fdic.
JPOR and Cinco-X,
Sorry I'm just getting back to you. I had to take Cleo, my dog, for a walk.