Government being the number 1 job creator for the foreseeable future FTW. Speaking of my bro called me last night talking about finding a government job! He works for Johnson and Johnson btw, I was afraid to ask!
Planned job reductions at major U.S. corporations declined for the third month in a row in October, falling to the lowest level since March 2008, according to a monthly tally compiled by outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas.
Bleedover from overnight thread and I got pigged...
Re: Blogger meeting with Treasury
It would be far better for the blogosphere if those who were at this meeting met a number of key Senators/Representatives or their staffs.
I have an idea for a "financial reform". Any bank that writes a loan has to hold it on their books for 50% of the term prior to securitization. It's not direct underwriting reform (which some Republicans have been against)
Re: End of TARP as part of Unemployment
I wonder if Reid cut a deal to have this debate later? I hate how Congress deliberates, they bring this to the floor... and then deals are cut behind the eyes of the public. I actually have no problem with the "unrelated" bills being attached to UE. Its part of Congressional horse-trading, and besides; its not like Congress won't pass the (un)popular housing credit.
Oh, and I saw a headline that said something like "GOP blocks Unemployment extension..." my butt! At any time Reid could've brought the bill to the floor, and allowed the amendments that the R's wanted to attach. Simply, he could've allowed the amendments to be voted up or down. However, he didn't do that; probably because a number of D's might support the amendments.... who the hell knows right now. It is true this will go back to the House to reconcile the changes the Senate made. I bet he wasted a week avoiding amendments the Democrats don't want. But to blame it on the GOP is funny.
The Associated Press said thousands of people gathered outside the former American Embassy to mark the day it was seized in 1979, triggering a hostage crisis that endured for 444 days.
..... For weeks, hard-liners have been warning the opposition not to take advantage of the occasion for anti-government protests, and in recent days there have been fresh threats from the police, the Revolutionary Guard, and prosecutors. No rallies would be permitted except the state-sanctioned ones outside the old embassy and anyone chanting anything except “death to America” would be arrested."
you couldn't make this stuff up if you wanted to....
Its abundantly clear that our government works for corporations and not the people.
Score 1 for the real estate lobby and home builders, 0 for responsible people who don't want to take other peoples lunch
Perhaps we do need a new government. I wish our elected officials would actually work for us.
I'll be calling my congressman today to find out where he stands. Both he and my senators are democratic so they probably will be supporting reid. I guess its more important to support your senate buddy than work for the long term good of the citizens.
Due to cost cutting measures to improve stakeholder value and based on poor performance, the "consensus" has been let go. Reduction in Force, if you will.
RE: TARP
The ironic thing now, is that now that the big banks have been helped and bailed out the TARP is being re-focused onto small businesses and ostensibly "Main Street". The CPP is going to be wound down; it seems like the only programs going forward are going to be the HAMP and the "small business/small banks" program. The meme from the elites is that this the economy has turned the corner from "risk due to large systemic failures" and the new unemployment and foreclosures are due to the "effects of the economy". I fail to see how this distinguishes anything for those losing their homes.
When Assistant Treasury person Herb Allison was asked how he's going to measure economic recovery I think he had three simple metrics: unemployment, and two others which escape me (forclosures maybe?)... obviously the one I remember is the bigger driver.
If we could now get a repeat of what happened in NY-23 in a traditional Democratic district perhaps then we will be able to identify the center of American policies - which would then make governing much easier.
Deflation in Japan is not news, but I haven't seen the 3 year prediction before:
The Bank of Japan expects deflation to persist here for three years.
In its half-yearly economic outlook report released last Friday, the central bank said it expects the core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food prices, to drop 1.5% in the fiscal year ending in March, a steeper slide than its July forecast for a 1.3% fall. Core CPI will likely slip 0.8% next fiscal year and 0.4% in the year after that, the bank's outlook report said.
M,
Its always been that way. Look at who is represented in Congress and how they get there. It always seems like whenever I'm reading Congressmen bios it goes something like this.... "Congressman X graduated with a BS from prestegious university... he graduted with a JD from prestegious university 2-3 year later... after serving on the staff of Congressman Y he made a run for Congress and won".
If we had a Congress of "Congressman X worked for a company for 10 years and was head of marketing..." I'm sure we'll have a more pragmatic Congress; but right now their basically working to write the laws that favor the elites or corporations.
The FTHB credit was added to this bill to gain Republican support; although in the end I doubt many Republicans end up voting for it. I don't know if there was an agreement on whether to take the funds from unspent stimulus money or to make it "new spending". I suppose we'll all see today when the Senate votes on the amendments. Its nice to know the "fiscal responsible" party is willing to give up that principle to benefit the homebuilders and real estate interests...
If we had a Congress of "Congressman X worked for a company for 10 years and was head of marketing..." I'm sure we'll have a more pragmatic Congress; but right now their basically working to write the laws that favor the elites or corporations.
Bullshit.
When I lived in Geneva Illinois, our congress-critter was Bill Foster. He was a scientist (used to work at Fermi labs).
Looks like the rally continues (by rally, I mean everything, worldwide, that can be traded). My green shoot is I got off of double shorts, and I only have single shorts, brown shorts, and gold.
One more note on TARP. I was perusing the TARP transaction sheets:
Bank United was given HAMP funds. Curious as that was one of the banks that failed earlier this year. It kind've irks me that a failed bank would be given taxpayer money after causing a $4B hit to the DIF fund I believe. They were given $93M for HAMP...
Looks like the rally continues (by rally, I mean huge amounts of artificially created liquidity, sloshing around the globe desperately seeking another bubble to blow).
Did a drive-by of the homeless tent-city nearest to me yesterday, and it looks like their wheels got repo'd, as in I saw around 20 shopping carts purloined from the nearest supermarket (8/10's of a mile away) being herded up by a rustler with a flatbed truck and 240 horses.
It's funny, as the figures are revised to improve the picture for September, EMRATIO a leg down (-0.4%), let's see if there is a revision there. Also started looking at the periods without an increase in EMRATIO (month over month change of zero or less) and we set a new record there, 20 consecutive months of no increases. The previous record of 17 months was held from Dec-73 to Apr-75...
OT: Pandemic Flu. At this point, the next big sock to the economy will be the developments in The Ukraine.
Stats:
Total infections:478,456
Total hospitalizations:24,003
Total deaths:81
5% hospitalization. Think "overwhelmed."
Mortality is not yet clear. Watch this to see if it's worth doing anything but attending party after party for the next few months before this strain of H1N1 pandemic flu visits the US.
Some exposed medical staff have kicked the bucket, which is a very bad sign.
The H1N1 soap opera is starting its second act; do not be fooled by the UN WHO announcement expected shortly on this. They have a tendancy to downplay everything until everything is so prevalent it can't be denied.
Check your Relenza supply.
As there are now expanding quarantines in The Ukraine, we now watch what happens next in Poland and countries to the west. A few weeks, and we'll have our next big story. Diving economies. Confusion. and???
"9:00a BREAKING Treasury to auction record $81 bln next week"
"9:00a Treasury to auction $25 bln in 10-yr notes"
"9:00a Treasury to auction $40 bln 3-yr notes"
This is the way we monetize our debt... monetize our debt... monetize our debt...
This is the way we monetize our debt... monetize our debt... monetize our debt...
...so early in the morning!
Hey I thought Ben said he was not going to DO THAT! On national TV even... you liar!
OT: Gold
We're watching the fiat-holding frogs in the pot, boiling. It's amazing. Gold has told them repeatedly, get out. They feel safe in the pot. Buh Bye.
Those holding piles of fiat, as do I but for my continuing commitments calling on the stuff, the ones who think they are guarding your wealth by staying in cash ans short term treasuries, imo, they are as stupid as was my primary school drop out dad; well intentioned, frightened, loyal, kind, obedient, underserved, tragic. My message to them, as I so wish I could have shared with my father, more convincingly as I was then just entering my teens, "Wake up. Understand reality. If necessary, hit your head against a steel pole and end up in the hospital. You need some time to think. You're dead meat. Your store of value is being ravaged. You will lose half your life savings simply by holding treasuries."
The alternative, for the frightened and uneducated is camping out on one's fiat. One of my buddies has $3 million in ST Treasuries. My proposal to discuss this weekend is to do him a favor and borrow say $1/2 millionto $1 million from him, secured with gold, and pay him 3% for the year and give him half the gold rise as an offset against the 3%. I'll make him a deal he cannot refuse. Very smart, yes?? He will freak; but then he may smell the fact that I'll shoulder the risk and then say, hey, I can't lose.
One year of rescuing that nice guy stubborn, frightened man may be all it takes to get him to see the reality of the realty.
The USD is now at 76.10 and going which way??? Hint, "Up" is not in the vocabulary.
Stimulus II, the great state bail-out is definately coming sooner rather than later. A long, hard, winter will see this stimulus passed around March of 2010 IMO.
What I found very interesting was that only 20% to 50% of unemployed get any benifits.
With 7 M people out of work, only 3M get benifits, how do they manage?
*The Bank of Japan expects deflation to persist here for three years.
In its half-yearly economic outlook report released last Friday, the central bank said it expects the core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food prices, to drop 1.5% in the fiscal year ending in March, a steeper slide than its July forecast for a 1.3% fall. Core CPI will likely slip 0.8% next fiscal year and 0.4% in the year after that, the bank's outlook report said.*
Interesting... this means they must expect deflation on a global scale. They could hardly expect deflation in Japan whilethere is inflation elsewhere in the world.
josap
i dont know,social services,family ...i dont know. i really just hope that they are not to proud to ask for what help there is, especially if they have kids.
volker
thats wishful thinking really wishful thinking besides they havent tried everyTHING else,so how can they do the right thing? putting cash in the hands of the consumer!
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 11/4/2009 - 9:42 am
I guess it sounds nicer to say employment decreased only 200k than it does to say; "500k fewer Americans working than want to work."
"want to work" ... I love this expression, confusing want with need again (politician double-speak, that is, not you). I "want" a million dollars and a named Skittles. We can easily create 200k make-work government jobs paid for with money we don't have, but nothing will get done that anyone but ourselves is willing to pay for.
Sikh separatists a few years back, used Canada as their base, did they not?
EvilHenryPaulson would know more about that, as I'm pretty sure that was in the BC/Vancouver area. Tamils are generally based near Toronto; the associated cities of Mississauga and Brampton are generally the targets for new immigrants.
mike in long island
sorry to listen in but that tape is that the old market tape. volume is that the old market volume, are you saying what i think you are saying? that the market needs some way faster computers stat?
Eric and MS - do either of you remember when the tape would omit the first digit or two aka the handle when the tape could't keep up with the volume?
I'm not that old. I started in the industry in 1995.
Of course, back then, NYSE stocks still only traded in eighths (12.5 penny spread, minimum!) and NASDAQ hadn't quite stomped on the bid rigging ("Chinese market") scandal yet, so those stock traded in quarters (or worse).
I remember people mentioning it but I never saw it personally. I actually wish they kept fractions....people sucked at math and couldn't figure those out so we gave them "shiny decimals..mafs are hard"
If they give comsumers cash - they will pay down debt. Which is bad for the banks.
Not going to happen.
Banks are worried about people walking away from debt, but they also have another big vulnerability. People with money might start paying off all their loans. There are a number of people now looking at a negative spread. They have money in treasuries, cds, checking accounts, etc. They also have outstanding debt, usually with a higher yield. Any credit card debt is a no brainer. They can let their auto loans mature, or if they don't have a low interest incentive loan, they can pay off early. Even people without any spare cash can just stop borrowing new money. This is a big medium term worry for banks.
If you want a wildly popular new proposal that's hard to administer, allow tax deductions for principal paydown for a year. The problem is making sure people haven't just taken out a new loan somewhere else to paydown the old one.
I remember people mentioning it but I never saw it personally. I actually wish they kept fractions....people sucked at math and couldn't figure those out so we gave them "shiny decimals..mafs are hard"
Who pockets the spread on rounding errors? That could add up to some serious change!
Gaby - first congrats. Second- I'm talking about past practice. It used to be that when it got busy - trades were reported where digits were omitted - for ex 72 3/8ths went to the tape as 2 3/8ths.
How about the argument that we owe some of the debt to ourselves. What a joke. Just watch the government try and reclaim some of the money and see how much purchasing power that argument has. Kind of like trying to pry the ill gotten gains back from the financial industry - ain't going to happen.
You'd think people would get fed up. There's always plenty of money for wars, bailouts and special interests, but never enough for the common good.
with the moves in PM's yesterday I have a funny feeling that someone had some "ears" at the FOMC meeting yesterday......I really don't think that the IMF sale to India amounts to much but I find it highly suspicious that the move coincided with start of that meeting.
The Foreword from "My Adventures With Your Money" (1913)
You are a member of a race of gamblers. The instinct to speculate dominates you. You feel that you simply must take a chance. You can't win, yet you are going to speculate and continue to speculate-- and to lose. Lotteries, faro, and horse-race betting being illegal, you play the stock game. In the stock game the cards (quotations or market fluctuations) are shuffled and riffled and STACKED behind your back, AFTER the dealer (the manipulator) knows on what side you have placed your bet, and haven't got a chance...
Of course, back then, NYSE stocks still only traded in eighths (12.5 penny spread, minimum!) and NASDAQ hadn't quite stomped on the bid rigging ("Chinese market") scandal yet, so those stock traded in quarters (or worse).
What's good enough for the NASDAQ, is good enough for farmer's markets:
Alot of farmers on the government dole have been weaned. No doubt they won't be included in the unemployment stats.
From AP: 3 million acres taken out of conservation program
".......More than 3.4 million acres nationwide were taken out of the program (Conservation Reserve Program) in September when the owners' contracts expired. Most of them were in Texas, Colorado and Kansas, but hundreds of thousands of acres also came out in Montana and the Dakotas....
farmers received annual rental payments on 10-, 15- and 20-year contracts. With payments averaging $51 per acre per year, the program cost about $2 billion in fiscal year 2008.....
Land auctions are already drawing farmers eager to expand their holdings. Govert said land he bought in 1950 for $55 an acre now sells for nearly $900 an acre, and a recent auction averaged as much as $1,100 an acre.
In some areas, change is in the air — literally. Thick plumes of smoke rise from thousands of acres where native grasses are being set afire in preparation for tilling.....
"You have all these acres coming out (of CRP) when the bottom has come out of the grain market."
Land auctions are already drawing farmers eager to expand their holdings. Govert said land he bought in 1950 for $55 an acre now sells for nearly $900 an acre, and a recent auction averaged as much as $1,100 an acre.
If you plotted the price of farmland against the value of direct payments to farmers, I'm fairly certain you would find it illuminating.
If you compared the current situation against the situation in 1977-1980, it would be eerily similar.
"Paying off debt."
With the benefit of much hindsight that is the dumbest thing you could have done
I assume you are talking about paying down a mortgage on an underwater house. Here is my preferred order: high interest credit cards, student loans (because they are almost impossible to get rid of otherwise), car loans without incentives.
You might or might not want to pay down your mortgage ahead of schedule. It depends on whether it is far underwater, and what the interest rate is. If you are sitting near a LTV cutoff for refi at a lower rate and your current loan(s) are recourse, step up and pay the money to reduce principal and do a refi.
The only green BHO believes in is $$$$. Another pledge to protect the climate taken off the respirator. Say bye bye to: "Over 3.4 million acres of habitat for quail, pheasant, prairie chickens and other wildlife and established filter strips and forested buffers to protect streams, lakes and rivers from sedimentation and agricultural runoff."
Maf is hard lol. I was okay with eighth's and teenies. Where I had to stop and think a bit was when the etf's began trading in 32nds and 64ths.
Fwiw - more pennies as of Monday past - 75 more options added to the penny pilot with another 225 behind those rolling out in 3 more
tranches in the next 3 qtrs.
Say bye bye to: "Over 3.4 million acres of habitat for quail, pheasant, prairie chickens and other wildlife and established filter strips and forested buffers to protect streams, lakes and rivers from sedimentation and agricultural runoff."
BHO had nothing to do with acres out of the CRP. It's the way the program was originally structured. Paying farmers to not use their land, with the provision they leave it in the reserve for a set period of time.
Once that time expired, farmers were free to cancel those acres and pull them out of the reserve, and not get paid for them. Blame grain prices, not BHO.
Many of those far underwater will end up walking. Paying on a property that will never reach the principal owed doesn't make much sense. Unless there is principal reduction with a mod allot of debt owners will walk. The odds increase of course with job loss, illness or relocation.
it has nothing to do with my house. I bought way before this bubble commenced.....it's a personal thing. Look at the system....did they or will they pay off debt?
Slumdog, I would say taking care of your health comes first. Your concerns about the swine flu are justified. As bad and widespread as the virus is now as it resonates around the world among people and pigs, it could easily mutate into something that the world is not ready for.
from AP: "But even as some farmers expand, many worry about the effect on commodity markets when there's already a global grain glut."
The farmers blame who's currently in office and that's BHO.
Many farmers in 2006 and 2007 watched helplessly as grain prices skyrocketed, knowing full well they had committed hundreds of acres of land to a program for a few dollars instead of using it to grow grain and making $500 or more an acre.
So they're trying to not repeat that error, and they'd prefer to lose money over not being able to make money. They're being irrational.
I would not be too bullish on the price of wheat/corn/soys in the next few years. But over the next 12 months, I think the weather and current depleted stocks could make for a very active spring/summer. We'll see.
Nov. 3: India has buried a shame in gold but reaped a worry in grain.
...
A few hours after the pride-pumping disclosure came another announcement: the summer rice production in India could slip by 15 million tonnes, prompting state agencies to keep import proposals ready.
The country has rice stocks of over 15 million tonnes and 29 million tonnes of other food grain but the forecast today was a sobering reminder of how India still remains a slave to the monsoon.
...
A few hours after the pride-pumping disclosure came another announcement: the summer rice production in India could slip by 15 million tonnes, prompting state agencies to keep import proposals ready.
The country has rice stocks of over 15 million tonnes and 29 million tonnes of other food grain but the forecast today was a sobering reminder of how India still remains a slave to the monsoon.
If there's one thing in which it's better to be safe than sorry and build up strong reserves, it's food.
We can do without a shiny new toaster if things get rough, but if we have a drought or major economic interruption that interferes with food production, we'd be screwed.
crisis over
Genocide Jury Duty
The skydiver whose parachute has failed to open has reached terminal velocity, and is enjoying an updraft.
Government being the number 1 job creator for the foreseeable future FTW. Speaking of my bro called me last night talking about finding a government job! He works for Johnson and Johnson btw, I was afraid to ask!
Go for throttle up on employment, Challenger.
ADP Numbers are out........................................ ( Cricket Chirping )
This is definitely a green shoot though.
Ipecac inspired?
biochemist wrote:
near term events will serve as a broad spectrum spray against any spread
Does this include the Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) recent report of 8000 more layoffs?
Bleedover from overnight thread and I got pigged...
Re: Blogger meeting with Treasury
It would be far better for the blogosphere if those who were at this meeting met a number of key Senators/Representatives or their staffs.
I have an idea for a "financial reform". Any bank that writes a loan has to hold it on their books for 50% of the term prior to securitization. It's not direct underwriting reform (which some Republicans have been against)
Re: End of TARP as part of Unemployment
I wonder if Reid cut a deal to have this debate later? I hate how Congress deliberates, they bring this to the floor... and then deals are cut behind the eyes of the public. I actually have no problem with the "unrelated" bills being attached to UE. Its part of Congressional horse-trading, and besides; its not like Congress won't pass the (un)popular housing credit.
Oh, and I saw a headline that said something like "GOP blocks Unemployment extension..." my butt! At any time Reid could've brought the bill to the floor, and allowed the amendments that the R's wanted to attach. Simply, he could've allowed the amendments to be voted up or down. However, he didn't do that; probably because a number of D's might support the amendments.... who the hell knows right now. It is true this will go back to the House to reconcile the changes the Senate made. I bet he wasted a week avoiding amendments the Democrats don't want. But to blame it on the GOP is funny.
YLSP wrote:
not funny as in haha, funny as in funny business as usual
The Associated Press said thousands of people gathered outside the former American Embassy to mark the day it was seized in 1979, triggering a hostage crisis that endured for 444 days.
..... For weeks, hard-liners have been warning the opposition not to take advantage of the occasion for anti-government protests, and in recent days there have been fresh threats from the police, the Revolutionary Guard, and prosecutors.
No rallies would be permitted except the state-sanctioned ones outside the old embassy and anyone chanting anything except “death to America” would be arrested."
you couldn't make this stuff up if you wanted to....
If the government increased subsidies for productive work, rather than holding risky assets, there would be rising employment.
You know, earned income credit, a Federal pickup of social security contributions for a period of time, building wind and solar. That sort of thing.
Re: extension of housing tax credit.
Its abundantly clear that our government works for corporations and not the people.
Score 1 for the real estate lobby and home builders, 0 for responsible people who don't want to take other peoples lunch
Perhaps we do need a new government. I wish our elected officials would actually work for us.
I'll be calling my congressman today to find out where he stands. Both he and my senators are democratic so they probably will be supporting reid. I guess its more important to support your senate buddy than work for the long term good of the citizens.
Newstroika = Restructuring of the old media by advertising attrition.
Due to cost cutting measures to improve stakeholder value and based on poor performance, the "consensus" has been let go. Reduction in Force, if you will.
RE: TARP
The ironic thing now, is that now that the big banks have been helped and bailed out the TARP is being re-focused onto small businesses and ostensibly "Main Street". The CPP is going to be wound down; it seems like the only programs going forward are going to be the HAMP and the "small business/small banks" program. The meme from the elites is that this the economy has turned the corner from "risk due to large systemic failures" and the new unemployment and foreclosures are due to the "effects of the economy". I fail to see how this distinguishes anything for those losing their homes.
When Assistant Treasury person Herb Allison was asked how he's going to measure economic recovery I think he had three simple metrics: unemployment, and two others which escape me (forclosures maybe?)... obviously the one I remember is the bigger driver.
If we could now get a repeat of what happened in NY-23 in a traditional Democratic district perhaps then we will be able to identify the center of American policies - which would then make governing much easier.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_H2DePAZe2gA/SvEt9xSO7EI/AAAAAAAAKPU/7mgCbBIXBO4/s1600-h/goldlongterm.PNG
$1275 / $1300 is the target folks according to Jesse
Deflation in Japan is not news, but I haven't seen the 3 year prediction before:
The Bank of Japan expects deflation to persist here for three years.
In its half-yearly economic outlook report released last Friday, the central bank said it expects the core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food prices, to drop 1.5% in the fiscal year ending in March, a steeper slide than its July forecast for a 1.3% fall. Core CPI will likely slip 0.8% next fiscal year and 0.4% in the year after that, the bank's outlook report said.
Japan debt auction is gauge of supply fears - MarketWatch
this "recession" is very impressive in its duration.
do the adp job loss numbers get distorted by people "falling out of the workforce"?
M,
Its always been that way. Look at who is represented in Congress and how they get there. It always seems like whenever I'm reading Congressmen bios it goes something like this.... "Congressman X graduated with a BS from prestegious university... he graduted with a JD from prestegious university 2-3 year later... after serving on the staff of Congressman Y he made a run for Congress and won".
If we had a Congress of "Congressman X worked for a company for 10 years and was head of marketing..." I'm sure we'll have a more pragmatic Congress; but right now their basically working to write the laws that favor the elites or corporations.
The FTHB credit was added to this bill to gain Republican support; although in the end I doubt many Republicans end up voting for it. I don't know if there was an agreement on whether to take the funds from unspent stimulus money or to make it "new spending". I suppose we'll all see today when the Senate votes on the amendments. Its nice to know the "fiscal responsible" party is willing to give up that principle to benefit the homebuilders and real estate interests...
I'd like to see the numbers adjusted or otherwise, that plot how many people just can't find work, as in there is nothing out there...
Job Untouchables
If we had a Congress of "Congressman X worked for a company for 10 years and was head of marketing..." I'm sure we'll have a more pragmatic Congress; but right now their basically working to write the laws that favor the elites or corporations.
Bullshit.
When I lived in Geneva Illinois, our congress-critter was Bill Foster. He was a scientist (used to work at Fermi labs).
He still caved and voted for TARP.
Looks like the rally continues (by rally, I mean everything, worldwide, that can be traded). My green shoot is I got off of double shorts, and I only have single shorts, brown shorts, and gold.
One more note on TARP. I was perusing the TARP transaction sheets:
Bank United was given HAMP funds. Curious as that was one of the banks that failed earlier this year. It kind've irks me that a failed bank would be given taxpayer money after causing a $4B hit to the DIF fund I believe. They were given $93M for HAMP...
BREAKING
Treasury to auction record $81 bln next week
Great just great.....this would be Deflationary
Looks like the rally continues (by rally, I mean huge amounts of artificially created liquidity, sloshing around the globe desperately seeking another bubble to blow).
There ... fixed that for ya.
I don't know about all the lines and zig-zags, but I bet gold goes a Helluva lot higher than even THAT!
.
".....there is nothing out there..."
U-3 here is 15.8%................if they admit to THAT, you know it's really in the 30% range - there's nothing worse than a BBQ without meat.
Black Star Ranch wrote:
couple things about living clean and sober:
good morning
im a great grand mother!
need
LOL......Morning, volker, and CONGRATS gabyjan!!!
Congrats Gaby!!!
Hope mom and baby are doing well. And you get some rest, lots of fun play time with the new baby is on the way.
congrats also gaby......
I hope the little one has a "debt" card already....he/she will need it.
Ciao
MS
gabyjan wrote:
awwwwwwwww....
you're gonna need more than coffee
Did a drive-by of the homeless tent-city nearest to me yesterday, and it looks like their wheels got repo'd, as in I saw around 20 shopping carts purloined from the nearest supermarket (8/10's of a mile away) being herded up by a rustler with a flatbed truck and 240 horses.
Congrats to you and yours...and may I say you look great for your age
It's funny, as the figures are revised to improve the picture for September, EMRATIO a leg down (-0.4%), let's see if there is a revision there. Also started looking at the periods without an increase in EMRATIO (month over month change of zero or less) and we set a new record there, 20 consecutive months of no increases. The previous record of 17 months was held from Dec-73 to Apr-75...
oh my thank you guys
mom and baby boy are fine,
i think he get his debt card when he gets his social security card.
again thank you
good news about the baby, sorry about that COLA
OT: Pandemic Flu. At this point, the next big sock to the economy will be the developments in The Ukraine.
Stats:
Total infections:478,456
Total hospitalizations:24,003
Total deaths:81
5% hospitalization. Think "overwhelmed."
Mortality is not yet clear. Watch this to see if it's worth doing anything but attending party after party for the next few months before this strain of H1N1 pandemic flu visits the US.
Some exposed medical staff have kicked the bucket, which is a very bad sign.
The H1N1 soap opera is starting its second act; do not be fooled by the UN WHO announcement expected shortly on this. They have a tendancy to downplay everything until everything is so prevalent it can't be denied.
Check your Relenza supply.
As there are now expanding quarantines in The Ukraine, we now watch what happens next in Poland and countries to the west. A few weeks, and we'll have our next big story. Diving economies. Confusion. and???
What's the EMRATIO again?
shill
thank you and you may
12th percentile
thank you and the cola really dont bother me.
All government, of course, is against liberty.
H. L. Mencken
"9:00a BREAKING Treasury to auction record $81 bln next week"
"9:00a Treasury to auction $25 bln in 10-yr notes"
"9:00a Treasury to auction $40 bln 3-yr notes"
This is the way we monetize our debt... monetize our debt... monetize our debt...
This is the way we monetize our debt... monetize our debt... monetize our debt...
...so early in the morning!
Hey I thought Ben said he was not going to DO THAT! On national TV even... you liar!
LL,
It is the broadest measure of employment - total civilian jobs over total population - no denominator games (or harder to play anyways lol):
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EMRATIO/
.
edit: the rate of change YoY accelerated downwards in September
energyecon: EMRATIO - return to cliff diving?
now on topic
In Face of Bankrupt Trust Funds, Virginia Cuts Unemployment Benefits, Nevada Weighs Options - ProPublica
gabyjan,
The real reason behind second stimulus.
GMAC Reports Third-Quarter Loss Tied to Loan Defaults (Update4) - Bloomberg.com
shill
we are not supposed to remember what they said and it always confuses them when we do.
ylsp
? explain please
thank you ylsp
1909: Carriage, Horse, Reins
2009: Newspapers, Radio, TV
,rad gabyjan the great,
Congrats~
OT: Gold
We're watching the fiat-holding frogs in the pot, boiling. It's amazing. Gold has told them repeatedly, get out. They feel safe in the pot. Buh Bye.
Those holding piles of fiat, as do I but for my continuing commitments calling on the stuff, the ones who think they are guarding your wealth by staying in cash ans short term treasuries, imo, they are as stupid as was my primary school drop out dad; well intentioned, frightened, loyal, kind, obedient, underserved, tragic. My message to them, as I so wish I could have shared with my father, more convincingly as I was then just entering my teens, "Wake up. Understand reality. If necessary, hit your head against a steel pole and end up in the hospital. You need some time to think. You're dead meat. Your store of value is being ravaged. You will lose half your life savings simply by holding treasuries."
The alternative, for the frightened and uneducated is camping out on one's fiat. One of my buddies has $3 million in ST Treasuries. My proposal to discuss this weekend is to do him a favor and borrow say $1/2 millionto $1 million from him, secured with gold, and pay him 3% for the year and give him half the gold rise as an offset against the 3%. I'll make him a deal he cannot refuse. Very smart, yes?? He will freak; but then he may smell the fact that I'll shoulder the risk and then say, hey, I can't lose.
One year of rescuing that nice guy stubborn, frightened man may be all it takes to get him to see the reality of the realty.
The USD is now at 76.10 and going which way??? Hint, "Up" is not in the vocabulary.
Stimulus II, the great state bail-out is definately coming sooner rather than later. A long, hard, winter will see this stimulus passed around March of 2010 IMO.
Over $3B In Default Swaps Pacts Triggered By CIT Bankruptcy - WSJ.com
this is not good,and is that an understatement?
thinking about it ,its only 3b so that shouldnt matter that much. i mean its not like its money.
jd
thank you
What are the highest probabilties for what will be in Stim II?
Where's the free money?
most likely massively under-reported (CIT CDS)..however I think the real story is what % of these actually have a payout.
CIT is now CITGQ BTW
Ciao
MS
I hear funds are limited, so Big Gov has cut a deal to give everybody a free 30 day supply of Enzyte, a fistful stimulus package.
Juvvie D
that Challenger quip ... ouch!
....
must get back to writing American Diaspora - Go East Young Man, No, Really East
....
Get out those 10k hats, boys and girls!!!
Miners and junior miners list for anyone interested:
Junior Gold Mining Investment Spreadsheet.xls
Take a romp back in time about 100 years ago, when fraud was the basis for mining stocks, or vice versa.
"My Adventures With Your Money"
The protagonist was a contemporary with Livermore, an interesting read...
gaby, great map.
What I found very interesting was that only 20% to 50% of unemployed get any benifits.
With 7 M people out of work, only 3M get benifits, how do they manage?
I have an obvious glitch in my S&P 500 quote....says it's down 810.0x
wishful thinking....
Ciao
MS
maybe, re stim II, they'll send some cash direct to consumer.......nah!
Hopefully the bubble is back from resting today.
*The Bank of Japan expects deflation to persist here for three years.
In its half-yearly economic outlook report released last Friday, the central bank said it expects the core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food prices, to drop 1.5% in the fiscal year ending in March, a steeper slide than its July forecast for a 1.3% fall. Core CPI will likely slip 0.8% next fiscal year and 0.4% in the year after that, the bank's outlook report said.*
Interesting... this means they must expect deflation on a global scale. They could hardly expect deflation in Japan whilethere is inflation elsewhere in the world.
This is what happens when you're so nice you can't say 'no':
CBC News - British Columbia - Tamil Tigers look to regroup in Canada: expert
You end up a couch-surfing target for all your useless 'friends'.
rally over?
MS
flash forward
josap
i dont know,social services,family ...i dont know. i really just hope that they are not to proud to ask for what help there is, especially if they have kids.
I guess it sounds nicer to say employment decreased only 200k than it does to say; "500k fewer Americans working than want to work."
I have an obvious glitch in my S&P 500 quote....says it's down 810.0x
Wall street trader humor:
"Bad tick.... you know it always goes there!"
volker
thats wishful thinking really wishful thinking besides they havent tried everyTHING else,so how can they do the right thing? putting cash in the hands of the consumer!
duke
write the manual. I'm ready to expatriate. And i'm working on my five finger palm exploding palm technique so I should fit right in, right?
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 11/4/2009 - 9:42 am
I guess it sounds nicer to say employment decreased only 200k than it does to say; "500k fewer Americans working than want to work."
named Skittles. We can easily create 200k make-work government jobs paid for with money we don't have, but nothing will get done that anyone but ourselves is willing to pay for.
"want to work" ... I love this expression, confusing want with need again (politician double-speak, that is, not you). I "want" a million dollars and a
If they give comsumers cash - they will pay down debt. Which is bad for the banks.
Not going to happen.
So what are some good investment ideas, besides gold...SRS (ultrashort real esate)?
Sikh separatists a few years back, used Canada as their base, did they not?
,rad noob,
Watch out for Dave 'the Tamil Tiger' Williams up over in the Gulag Hockeypelago, eh?
this stim will help the states,whereas state taxes havent been paid and the fed if anything is owed,and children if child support is owed.
Eric and MS - do either of you remember when the tape would omit the first digit or two aka the handle when the tape could't keep up with the volume?
Holy smokes. we might hit 12T this week. The official debt as of:
11/02/2009 11,974,737,715,216.11
Debt to the Penny (Daily History Search Application)
Check out this fluff piece:
in-october-signs-of-life-at-retailers: Personal Finance News from Yahoo! Finance
They must be writing about some other parallel earth that we can't see
BT - eh, at this point, what's another Trillion or two matter? it's chump change.
SNAFU wrote:
EvilHenryPaulson would know more about that, as I'm pretty sure that was in the BC/Vancouver area. Tamils are generally based near Toronto; the associated cities of Mississauga and Brampton are generally the targets for new immigrants.
mike in long island
sorry to listen in but that tape is that the old market tape. volume is that the old market volume, are you saying what i think you are saying? that the market needs some way faster computers stat?
Stay away from SRS.
Although I guess the market has priced in large expectations of a CRE govt bailout (or the Fed $1.5T is enough?).
Eric and MS - do either of you remember when the tape would omit the first digit or two aka the handle when the tape could't keep up with the volume?
I'm not that old. I started in the industry in 1995.
Of course, back then, NYSE stocks still only traded in eighths (12.5 penny spread, minimum!) and NASDAQ hadn't quite stomped on the bid rigging ("Chinese market") scandal yet, so those stock traded in quarters (or worse).
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Real Tamils usually have more teeth.
So what are some good investment ideas, besides gold...SRS (ultrashort real esate)?
How about gold miner's? Or gold ETFs? That's two other choices for you.
I remember people mentioning it but I never saw it personally. I actually wish they kept fractions....people sucked at math and couldn't figure those out so we gave them "shiny decimals..mafs are hard"
Ciao
MS
WBIR.com | Knoxville, TN | stimulus Tennessee budget
More obvious "news" on the home front.......
Deflation: European PPI Plunges 7.7%
Deflation: European PPI Plunges 7.7%
josap wrote:
Banks are worried about people walking away from debt, but they also have another big vulnerability. People with money might start paying off all their loans. There are a number of people now looking at a negative spread. They have money in treasuries, cds, checking accounts, etc. They also have outstanding debt, usually with a higher yield. Any credit card debt is a no brainer. They can let their auto loans mature, or if they don't have a low interest incentive loan, they can pay off early. Even people without any spare cash can just stop borrowing new money. This is a big medium term worry for banks.
If you want a wildly popular new proposal that's hard to administer, allow tax deductions for principal paydown for a year. The problem is making sure people haven't just taken out a new loan somewhere else to paydown the old one.
MS (profile) wrote on Wed, 11/4/2009 - 9:55 am
I remember people mentioning it but I never saw it personally. I actually wish they kept fractions....people sucked at math and couldn't figure those out so we gave them "shiny decimals..mafs are hard"
Who pockets the spread on rounding errors? That could add up to some serious change!
Gaby - first congrats. Second- I'm talking about past practice. It used to be that when it got busy - trades were reported where digits were omitted - for ex 72 3/8ths went to the tape as 2 3/8ths.
Basel too,
How about the argument that we owe some of the debt to ourselves. What a joke. Just watch the government try and reclaim some of the money and see how much purchasing power that argument has. Kind of like trying to pry the ill gotten gains back from the financial industry - ain't going to happen.
You'd think people would get fed up. There's always plenty of money for wars, bailouts and special interests, but never enough for the common good.
Slumdog wrote:
Paying off debt.
with the moves in PM's yesterday I have a funny feeling that someone had some "ears" at the FOMC meeting yesterday......I really don't think that the IMF sale to India amounts to much but I find it highly suspicious that the move coincided with start of that meeting.
FWIW.
Ciao
MS
The Foreword from "My Adventures With Your Money" (1913)
George Graham Rice
Eric wrote:
What's good enough for the NASDAQ, is good enough for farmer's markets:
Farmers' Market price deals halted
If you can't trust farmer's market prices for apples, what can you trust?
/snark
Alot of farmers on the government dole have been weaned. No doubt they won't be included in the unemployment stats.
From AP: 3 million acres taken out of conservation program
".......More than 3.4 million acres nationwide were taken out of the program (Conservation Reserve Program) in September when the owners' contracts expired. Most of them were in Texas, Colorado and Kansas, but hundreds of thousands of acres also came out in Montana and the Dakotas....
farmers received annual rental payments on 10-, 15- and 20-year contracts. With payments averaging $51 per acre per year, the program cost about $2 billion in fiscal year 2008.....
Land auctions are already drawing farmers eager to expand their holdings. Govert said land he bought in 1950 for $55 an acre now sells for nearly $900 an acre, and a recent auction averaged as much as $1,100 an acre.
In some areas, change is in the air — literally. Thick plumes of smoke rise from thousands of acres where native grasses are being set afire in preparation for tilling.....
"You have all these acres coming out (of CRP) when the bottom has come out of the grain market."
"Paying off debt."
With the benefit of much hindsight that is the dumbest thing you could have done. I know I did it.....stupidest thing I ever did.
Ciao
MS
But they have a stricter version of game misconduct.
mike
thank you and thanks for answering my question. but that must have made reading really interesting..
Gabyjan! Congratulations! Wow! Lots of fun for you ahead.
morning everyone, in and out today as its winter tire change season for us.
Gabyjan, enjoy this special time its so fleeting. Live the moment!
"Paying off debt."
With the benefit of much hindsight that is the dumbest thing you could have done. I know I did it.....stupidest thing I ever did.
MS,
Over priced house?
rps wrote:
If you plotted the price of farmland against the value of direct payments to farmers, I'm fairly certain you would find it illuminating.
If you compared the current situation against the situation in 1977-1980, it would be eerily similar.
thank you nanoo
i think im still getting use to it,great grand ! wow.
up, up and away...............
MS wrote:
I assume you are talking about paying down a mortgage on an underwater house. Here is my preferred order: high interest credit cards, student loans (because they are almost impossible to get rid of otherwise), car loans without incentives.
You might or might not want to pay down your mortgage ahead of schedule. It depends on whether it is far underwater, and what the interest rate is. If you are sitting near a LTV cutoff for refi at a lower rate and your current loan(s) are recourse, step up and pay the money to reduce principal and do a refi.
If you are far underwater, don't pay early.
The only green
BHO believes in is $$$$. Another pledge to protect the climate taken off the respirator. Say bye bye to: "Over 3.4 million acres of habitat for quail, pheasant, prairie chickens and other wildlife and established filter strips and forested buffers to protect streams, lakes and rivers from sedimentation and agricultural runoff."
Maf is hard lol. I was okay with eighth's and teenies. Where I had to stop and think a bit was when the etf's began trading in 32nds and 64ths.
Fwiw - more pennies as of Monday past - 75 more options added to the penny pilot with another 225 behind those rolling out in 3 more
tranches in the next 3 qtrs.
ISM down to 50.6
rps
it is bush3
rps wrote:
BHO had nothing to do with acres out of the CRP. It's the way the program was originally structured. Paying farmers to not use their land, with the provision they leave it in the reserve for a set period of time.
Once that time expired, farmers were free to cancel those acres and pull them out of the reserve, and not get paid for them. Blame grain prices, not BHO.
some investor guy wrote:
Many of those far underwater will end up walking. Paying on a property that will never reach the principal owed doesn't make much sense. Unless there is principal reduction with a mod allot of debt owners will walk. The odds increase of course with job loss, illness or relocation.
it has nothing to do with my house. I bought way before this bubble commenced.....it's a personal thing. Look at the system....did they or will they pay off debt?
It's an opinion and nothing more...
Ciao
MS
Blame grain prices, not BHO.
from AP: "But even as some farmers expand, many worry about the effect on commodity markets when there's already a global grain glut."
The farmers blame who's currently in office and that's BHO.
Slumdog, I would say taking care of your health comes first. Your concerns about the swine flu are justified. As bad and widespread as the virus is now as it resonates around the world among people and pigs, it could easily mutate into something that the world is not ready for.
rps wrote:
Many farmers in 2006 and 2007 watched helplessly as grain prices skyrocketed, knowing full well they had committed hundreds of acres of land to a program for a few dollars instead of using it to grow grain and making $500 or more an acre.
So they're trying to not repeat that error, and they'd prefer to lose money over not being able to make money. They're being irrational.
I would not be too bullish on the price of wheat/corn/soys in the next few years. But over the next 12 months, I think the weather and current depleted stocks could make for a very active spring/summer. We'll see.
Talking about grain production:
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1091104/jsp/frontpage/story_11697358.jsp
Nov. 3: India has buried a shame in gold but reaped a worry in grain.
...
A few hours after the pride-pumping disclosure came another announcement: the summer rice production in India could slip by 15 million tonnes, prompting state agencies to keep import proposals ready.
The country has rice stocks of over 15 million tonnes and 29 million tonnes of other food grain but the forecast today was a sobering reminder of how India still remains a slave to the monsoon.
...
SNAFU wrote:
If there's one thing in which it's better to be safe than sorry and build up strong reserves, it's food.
We can do without a shiny new toaster if things get rough, but if we have a drought or major economic interruption that interferes with food production, we'd be screwed.
Could you expound on that a little? Because CRE won't go any lower, or because it tracks the wrong index, or what?
good morning
im a great grand mother!- Gabyjan
Congratulations!