Green shoots?

some surprising unknown innovation

He means CDO^2s or something like that?

As I recall, the 80s recession was precipitated by Volcker raising rates to 17%. This recession was caused by Greenspan lowering rates to 1%. Different mechanisms entirely.

It's amazing how many people want the good old days of wild excess of 2007 to return. Well, not 100%. 70% of the wild excess will do. Isn't that normal? Aren't we all entitled to a nice big chunk of the all-time peak in wild excess?

1 currency now -yogi wrote:

It's the debt, stupid.

True, but also...

It's the squid, stupid.

Sailors only spend their own money and don't ask for bailouts. As a former drunken sailor, I take offense at the constant comparison to politicians.

Optimist.
100 USD oil and 2000 USD gold.

Pessimist:
50 CAD oil and 40,000 oz. Rupee gold..

Another factor that is different this time is the extent that FedGov is willing to thwart market clearing mechanisms. We are several hundred banks behind the curve. We are many hundreds of thousands of foreclosures short of what is necessary. We are several million jobs below basal employment conducive to recovery. And next up? Interfering with 17% of and one of the few stable portions of the economy; health care.

As a former sailor aka "squid" myself, I would have to say much of my money went up in smoke.

People don't elect governors to make a statement about federal policy. It's a rotten time to be an incumbent. Look at a lot of the CEOs. Sure they could have done something to lessen the effects on their companies, but a lot of this was set in motion before their tenure began. Yet we still have the replacement ritual, never-minding that if the CEO didn't follow the board's every jot, he would have been gone. Autocracy is much cleaner.

My short term bullishness is tempered by medium term and long terms pessimism. Keep in mind we are an empire in terminal decline. The global order built on our dominance is falling apart. The future is very uncertain.

It's been interesting ... must go curling

nova what most do not think about....if a credit card is 20% interest with money and inflation near zero, in some later inflationary environment that means of say 10% inflation, it means a 200% interest rate on those cc purchases

ONLY 49-48 WITH 24% IN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
BLOOMBERG MIGHT HAVE BLOWN $100 MILLION
GO GO GO GO GO GO GO

bANK fAILURE wrote:

one ping and one ping only....

Is it your intention to attack the United States?

Leonhardt forgot to mention droppings.

A recording of a recent Council On Foreign Relations symposium reveals attendees discussing ways and means of getting the public to take the H1N1 flu vaccine in spite of the mass resistance that has arisen due to questions over it’s safety.

The recording dates from October 16 when the CFR held a Symposium in New York entitled Pandemic Influenza: Science, Economics, and Foreign Policy. YouTube - Artificial scarcity and the anatomy of the 2009 Swine Flu

O's way is the way of the ; democrats are on the squids here on out.

nova what most do not think about....if a credit card is 20% interest with money and inflation near zero, in some later inflationary environment that means of say 10% inflation, it means a 200% interest rate on those cc purchases

It was a time when I didn't even understand what interest really was. It was all about the monthly payment.

The story is the voters may have gotten sick of Mike's saturation overkill

bANK fAILURE wrote:

one ping and one ping only....

I will live in Montana. And I will marry a round American woman and raise rabbits, and she will cook them for me. And I will have a pickup truck... maybe even a "recreational vehicle." And drive from state to state

Goodbye to the American dream.

Just to take the positive side of the economic ledger...

State unemployment fund projects a $27.3 billion deficit - Handling Hard Times : The Orange County Register

California's unemployment insurance trust fund is bleeding money with state officials estimating it will be $27.3 billion in the hole by the end of 2011, according to a new state forecast.

Volker: Too fast, Obama, to fast. These charts are laid out very specifically, so fast for so long. If we are off so much as a boatlength....

Obama: Goldman knows what its doing.

Don't worry the fix is in. Diebold will chose Bloomberg.

Jesus Christie, is there no GLOD?

I pulled a lever. Thompson's rep. checks the machine before and after. They watch the old lady read the numbers. Too close to call still.

josap wrote:

Houses were selling like hot cakes, increasing in value enough to flip the same place every 30 days for a proffit. People were buying cars using credit cards.

You claim this was the early 80s but it sounds eerily familiar....

mock turtle wrote:

"we are a long way from normal"

my therapist says abnormal is the normal. And normal is not the norm.

CFR video:

CFR Symposium on Pandemic Influenza: Science, Economics, and Foreign Policy - Council on Foreign Relations

A side note to deficit hawks: Don’t be distracted by a few billion here or there from stimulus. The real action is with health reform, which has the potential to save hundreds of billions of dollars over the long term — but only if Congress gets tough on wasteful medical spending.

Hilarious. Just like they cracked down of wasteful spending in the military.

Pandemic Influenza: Science, Economics, and Foreign Policy: Session Two: The Economics (Video) - Council on Foreign Relations

Pandemic Influenza: Science, Economics, and Foreign Policy: Session Three: Foreign Policy (Video) - Council on Foreign Relations

I bet you Leondharts house is decorated like CandyLand. This guy is such a doofus sometimes. I cant quite figure out why he has to put out these puff pieces, but they really make it hard for me to take him seriously.

CA is already doing it by forcing companies to withhold more money from worker's paychecks. Oh, you'll get it back later at tax time. Yeh. ...great, like, what if I need it NOW!!!??!?!

RE Bloomberg mayoral race:

Bloomberg Used Hidden Muscle to Try to Stop His Campaign Rivals at the Door - NY Times

"Mr. Sheekey, the mayor’s political guru, urged him to quickly send a warning to potential challengers. He suggested recruiting a high-profile attack dog for the campaign and disclosing it to the press. The choice was obvious: Howard Wolfson, the combative former communications director for Hillary Rodham Clinton’s presidential run.

Mr. Skyler suggested that the campaign be run by his best friend, Bradley Tusk, a former deputy to Gov. Rod R. Blagojevich of Illinois, who was leaving Lehman Brothers and eager to return to politics. Mr. Tusk spent weeks last fall helping Mr. Sheekey ram the term limits legislation through the City Council. "

Have your campaign run by Blago/Lehman tool...that is sheer genius. Narf!

Rob Dawg wrote:

And next up? Interfering with 17% of and one of the few stable portions of the economy; health care.

You gotta be kidding me. Stable? Health care is about to be thrown off a cliff, unless something changes.

"Health care is about to be thrown off a cliff, unless something changes."

Holy hypodermic Batman. The human race hasn't made it these 100,000 years with out it! We're doomed!

Leonhardt is smoking some good stuff

GOP gubernatorial wins in N.J. and Virginia are seen as a bad sign for President Obama.

O should not have bailed out the

Stiglitz: U.S. Paying for Not Nationalizing Banks
"We have this very strange situation today in America where we have given banks hundreds of billions of dollars and the president has to beg the banks to lend and they refuse. What we did was the wrong thing. It has weakened the economy and has increased our deficit, making it more difficult for the future." -- Joseph Stiglitz

The is going to turn and eat O

Oh? And when the last law was down, and the Goldman turned 'round on you, where would you hide, Obama, the laws all being flat? This country is planted thick with laws, from coast to coast, Man's laws, not God's! And if you cut them down, and you're just the man to do it, do you really think you could stand upright in the winds that would blow then?

I'd prefer if it went paisley and all wobbly.

Don't you understand people? The quicker the recovery, the easier it is for the button pushers to steal from it's citizens, as no one pays too close attention when you are drunk on koolaid.....we have already proved that.....IE: Go shopping.

A correction/crash, is bad for the powers that be, as out of work and miserable people pay more attention to the goings on....And the Government hates that.

Nemo wrote:

I am hoping for the total collapse of the current system so it can be replaced by something better.

It was, the Glass-Steagal Act of 1933

"Is there any reason why the American people should be taxed to guarantee the debts of banks, any more than they should be taxed to guarantee the debts of other institutions, including merchants, the industries, and the mills of the country?" Senator Carter Glass, Author of the Banking Act of 1933

And then the bankers via Rubin, Greenspan, and Clinton repealed the Act.
The bankers are banking on rinse and repeat into perpetuity....

Oh well. Stuck with man again.

Later. Going out to vomit in the street...

Well, we still have Mike Bloomberg to kick around some more...

Leonhardt could have used 1937 as an example instead of 1982. Hoocoodanode that by 1942 the USA would have full employment?

Christie Ousts Corzine as Republican Wins N.J. Governor’s Race - Bloomberg.com

Hell's yeah

JP

The UE package gave everyone who got laid off Cobra benefits for 9 mos i think.

Looks like Christie does work for . Hard to explain Corzine's loss otherwise.

Here from the Commonwealth of Virginia, I am trying to make sense of the size of the Republican victory. 67/33, that is huge. Deeds ran an abysmal campaign, but 67/33 ?!? The last two Governors were Democrats, and relatively moderate by national standards.

Tapping into the "buzz," I do not take this as rejection of Obama. Virginians always deal with state issues in their votes, and do not base their votes on national referenda. I do see, however, a strong sense of dismay with the Federal failures, including bailouts, and a significant anti-Federal stance, which only the Republicans espoused.

fried wrote:

If only it would happen here....

Chinese Trial Reveals Vast Web of Corruption...

Instead, what is happening here is going there:

China Approves a Disney Theme Park in Shanghai - NY Times

Rob Dawg wrote:

At this rate we might get a shocker in CA-10, Garamendi v Harmer

I know these guys. Hoping for other candidates.

I mostly agree. From my small corner of alexandria, it had a lot more to do with local discussion than national.

barfly

Just glad to see GS Alumni go down

rps wrote:

The bankers are banking on rinse and repeat into perpetuity

If you want to reduce banker income, pay off almost all your debt. Move deposits elsewhere, like equities or money market funds.

Terry wrote:

I am waiting to see the Fed's G-19 release this Friday to see how much further consumer credit contracted. This is the less optimistic view

That depends. If you actually are in favor of long term real economic growth, debt reduction is good.

it was 59/41. Still pretty bad.

JP wrote:

I mostly agree. From my small corner of alexandria, it had a lot more to do with local discussion than national.

But JP, here Alexandria went 67 / 33 the other way, for Deeds. Still the discussion was local? This is Alexandria, the rich playground of DC, there are only national discussions here.

some investor guy wrote:

Electing someone from a minor party, or an independent scares the living daylights out of the major parties.

In CA-10 the Rs are a minor party 18 point disparity.

We might see some E.P.I.C. candid dates ahead...

End Poverty in California movement - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Hard to optimistic with more job cuts coming..only those who swim with the squid are immune.

Another 1,700 jobs are to go at HSBC, bringing the total losses this year to 3,400.
HSBC said the cuts were the result of a restructuring of its branch network management, and the merging of several debt collection and debit and credit card operations.
From the Guardian, this evening.

Plantagenet,
My view of the Virginia election (from Manassas) is that the turnout of college kids and blacks was much lower than in 2008. Without Obama on the ticket or Bush in the White House to get them excited, most of these voters stayed home.

bearly wrote:

The GOP just got enough rocket fuel to power an "Impeach Obama" campaign

How does having Joe at the helm, improve the GOP's position? And it is going to take a hell of a lot of seats to get them anywhere close. And none of them that I am aware of in THIS election.

some investor guy wrote:

Move deposits elsewhere, like equities or money market funds.

I'm pretty sure they have their fingers in those pies too.

Obama's personally popularity is holding up even as voters increasingly turn away from his policies. But if the economy tanks next quarter like most of the people on this board think it will, we're going to be bombarded with Hoover comparisons. It would have been much better for him if he had not tried to prop it up with so much spending and handouts to the banks. The economy would have tanked sooner and he could have blamed it all on Bush. Now having crowed about saving the world from another depression, the next downturn is going to be laid at Obama's feet.

rps wrote:

And then the bankers via Rubin, Greenspan, and Clinton repealed the Act.
The bankers are banking on rinse and repeat into perpetuity....

Not even and honorable mention to Gramm (or Summers)? BTW looks pretty veto proof, so I'd not be too hard on Clinton.

"The bill that ultimately repealed the Act was introduced in the Senate by Phil Gramm (Republican of Texas) and in the House of Representatives by Jim Leach (R-Iowa) in 1999. The bills were passed by a Republican majority, basically following party lines by a 54-44 vote in the Senate[12] and by a bi-partisan 343-86 vote in the House of Representatives.[13] After passing both the Senate and House the bill was moved to a conference committee to work out the differences between the Senate and House versions. The final bill resolving the differences was passed in the Senate 90-8 (one not voting) and in the House: 362-57 (15 not voting). The legislation was signed into law by President Bill Clinton on November 12, 1999. "

Do you think that the IMF would sell me some gold? I've got an official currency that I created on my PC with a great pic of Ward Cleaver over the motto, "Because I said so, Dammit". If I print a couple reams worth of the things, I could mebbe get some gold...

It worked in Zimbabwe, it can work here.

sorry, it IS working here.

And one final note. I personally feel sorry for anybody who's having to do strategic plans and forecasts for health care, 'cuz it's nothing but science fiction at this point.

homedad43 wrote:

'cuz it's nothing but science fiction at this point

I'd argue that it's closer to pure fantasy than sci fi. Can Haz Skittle-Pooping ??

I told ya'll long ago - the plan was another bubble, the status quo bubble, and the plan is working !

Fears of a New Bubble as Cash Pours In - WSJ.com 

Meanwhile, in Philadelphia, 50,000 kids aren't sure how they'll get to school tomorrow.

mp wrote:

That would be a big mistake.

Agreed. But the political landscape is a bit different now and the "Contract with America" and Trickle Down, are going to be a tougher sell this time around. I await the (R) machine to come up with something even remotely credible, but so far, I don't see much but an already shrill, radical and marginalized entity becoming even more so, on a national level. Barring some new ideas from an unexpected direction, Rahm has done a tidy job of running and end-around on most hot-button issues.

Conjure and I still think it may be time to dabble in a little Realpolitik and find some southern evangelical group that would like some cash for Feldstiefeln and Blutfahnen.

Potentially huge payoff for very little down.
Wednesday, June 25, 2008, 11:48:59 PM

The idea could be gaining ground in some quarters.

Damn we must have done something wrong. Look how well Australian housing is doing...

Fears of a New Bubble as Cash Pours In - WSJ.com 

Australian real-estate markets also have heated up. After a Melbourne property-research firm recently predicted that average home prices will double over the next 12 years, a news report in Australia's Herald Sun said: "The staggering prediction shows the importance of buying a home as soon as you can afford it because the longer buyers delay, the more chance there is that their dream will slip out of their reach.

lol

Singapore home prices rose 15.8% in the third quarter, the fastest rate in 28 years.

15.8% in a quarter. Damn...

For the next twelve months, real GDP will grow by 1.1% according to my model, which would have outperformed every single of the 50 or so economists polled by the Wall Street Journal in the past few years. More on this here: http://raphaelkahan.blogspot.com/2009/11/gdp-forecast-update.html, and a discussion on the reasons here: http://raphaelkahan.blogspot.com/2009/10/2010-outlook.html