A Look Back at a the GM Sales Forecast
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Tue, 11/03/2009 - 4:38pm (129 comments)
in
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Still looking forward to the solar powered flying Hummers. Pretty sure that is what Obama promised when he took over GM.
Can GM be anything but dead sooner rather than later?
Conjecture for the day:
Warren buys a rail road, marketskeptic points out the coming food crisis, Copenhagen coming up fast and oil is expensive.
Coal is our future and RRs move it. The country produces food and the world needs it. RRs move it. US has many natural resources left to exploit. RRs move it. Oil is going up, up,up. RRs are cheaper. Using a deflating dollar to take a large chunk of Warren's money to buy a real productive asset is good sense. Climate accords will not be forthcoming since our need to use coal to fire our electric plants for the next decade is a lock. C'est la vie. Would be nice if Warren invested 20 billion in green energy production.
Halfway through "Snowball", my regard for Warren is mixed with a strong leaning towards not seeing him as the common man made good.. The man is the most artful performer of cloaking his true self I have ever examined. Long live his myth.
++++
Best read of the day for promoting rage(thought I was past that):
"If the practices of banks are at odds with the new rules, banks will be required to submit a plan for improvements. Bank regulators and officials will then discuss a timetable for the changes, making it likely that many reforms might not take effect until late next year at the earliest."
- NY Times
Nemo wrote:
Flying cars! Man, can you image people driving those? Rush hour would look like that scene from the Blue Brothers with cars crashing though buildings. In a month, every office building in the country would be demolished with flying Hummers sticking out of them.
CalculatedRisk wrote;
[GM] "Of course they weren't planning on going bankrupt!"
How could they not have known that they were about to go bankrupt?
I guess they figured that Uncle Sugar would be there, just like in the past.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
LOL! Great mental picture.
Any predictions of what the United States will be like in 10 years?
My guess is that 2009 will be remembered as the "good old days", as things will be much worse.
Cars last longer, people have less disposable income, demographics of the baby echo fading, psychological trend away from owning things, rising interest rates. I'll take the under for 2010. 11.2m vehicles. And no, I won't change that for black swans. Just one guess regardless of any market crash or C4C v2.0 whipsawing.
Pigged.
Speaking of highways and America's "future", I'm struggling to follow Warren Buffett's stated logic for buying BNI. While I think BNI is indeed a good investment, exactly what does it say about America's love affair with autos and our "vaunted" and sprawling highway and road system.
A bet on the future of America? That sounds a lot like when Buffett said Main St. and Wall St. were CONnected at the hip.
I'd say Warren is making a bet against America's future prosperity.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Gives a whole new meaning to CRE overhang.
Rob Dawg wrote:
At least every cube will have a "window" seat
PastTense wrote:
Oh yeah. Well, I'm 55 (visualize old-fart on a rocker) and I remember my first trip to Yellowstone.... (leans back)
Yup, was back in 70 or 71, not sure exactly when. Times were rough then. Talk amongst the kin about GAS shortages. How we never gonna drive to Yellowstone 'gyn. We set out, and followed a manure truck down Interstate 55, an ominous start to our trip.
thread music to go TU to : YouTube - If I Could Turn Back Time
From Redfin:
The Seller pulled out all the stops and made this home sparkle and shine! Sitting at the end of a caldas sac, across from a water filtered reservoir this beautiful retreat offers privacy and a country like setting.
Home, Sweet Home
3917 FIELD St, Oakland, CA 94605 | MLS# 40436870
BTW - Bought from bank 10 weeks ago.
Angry Saver wrote:
Is this turning into a train foamer site!
Jeez. Trains have nothing to do with passenger cars. Trains carry bulk materials in huge amounts and wholesale containers (trucks are retail transportation. Door to Door, trains wholesale truck transportation).
Warren isn't going to run passenger trains.
In a month, every office building in the country would be demolished with flying Hummers sticking out of them.
Two wrongs CAN make a right!
....In a now typical 10.5-mil car sales month, what percentages are sales to rental agencies, leasing agencies, and government purchases?
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Have you honestly tried to move 200+ Americans at one time? I think "bulk materials" is a compliment!
GM is slowly separating their world operation from NA. I think they are truly preparing for life after NA operations. I like the fact they did not sell off Opel/Vaxhaul to any of the buyers that came forward especially FIAT.
I don't think this forecast included bankruptcy.
In general I think this forecast (at least for the first few quarters) is pretty good. I just want to emphasize 10.5 million SAAR is a low number - not as bad as the low 9s earlier this year, but still below the replacement level.
best wishes
NaRm,
You missed the point. I'm saying WEB is betting on expensive oil and a falling dollar. Not exactly an endorsement of an eCONomy built around a sprawling road and highway system.
Why do we need to return to the long-term replacement level of 12.5 Million cars per year next year (2010) when we have had years and years above replacement, and only 1 below?
I'll take the below, for the 12.5 Million "replacement" number for 2010.
Rob Dawg, taking the under on forecasts has been the winning bet for several years - and might be for a while longer.
best wishes
Still haven't recognized that we're in the early stages of a depression? I'll give you a few more months. It is highly unlikely that auto sales will be up in 2010. Just as it was unlikely that they'd be up in 2009.
We've only kicked the can with QE and stimulus. Watch the illusion of recovery crumble....soon.
Angry Saver wrote:
Ah, perhaps. A falling dollar will kill inbound container traffic (as will the wider panama canal). But, an increase in fuel cost will hurt over-the-road trucking, so it's an interesting investment. I thing WEB is an optimist tho. He's investing for growth, not shrinkage. That's how his brain works.
Pigged....
warlock wrote:
Packet switched networks (which is transportation - the packet is the vehicle, goodput is the number of passengers, etc.), have lots of topology related inefficiencies, and in particular don't scale proportionally to traffic with large numbers of nodes.
I haven't been to the third world much, but I did spent some time in Thai cities other than Bangkok, where much of the in-town public transit was handled by private jitneys -- often just a pickup with a camper shell, a plank bench down each side of the bed, and a sign describing its general route or neighborhood. As the drivers were in it for the money, they tended to cluster where demand was greatest -- and spread out into other areas when the competition was too great. End result -- you could always catch one fairly easily, going to the general area you wanted to go to. Drop off directly at your destination was not uncommon. For longer distance travel to the 'burbs and nearby towns there were "regular" buses that left from stations and kept a schedule.
Aside from the rather startling safety issues (driver refueling truck with gasoline from plastic #1 containers riding on the floor beside him, etc. -- the system worked well. Thinking of all those jitneys as individual packets crossing a network is quite appealing, and probably somewhat accurate.
Well, Tuesday is hottie night at the health club, so I'm off to do some aerobics, yoga, and leering.
Later.
I don't understand the auto industry much but it seems to me that sales below the replacement level would spell the doom of a whole passel of suppliers, both large and small, eh? So doesn't that cause a vicious cycle?
Oh, and NOTaREALAmerican...at 55 you'd qualify as a whippersnapper in my book.
"Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- More Americans filed bankruptcy in October than in any month since changes to U.S. bankruptcy laws in 2005 ....The number of individuals filing bankruptcy rose 25 percent.......
Businesses also continued to struggle to pay creditors; corporate bankruptcies climbed about 30 percent from October 2008"
Skittles the Unicorn wrote:
Paging Dr. Dryfly. Dr. Dryfly commentariat consult on line CR...
rps,
All those bankruptcies could have been avoided if only Lehman hadn't failed and interupted the ponzi debt manufacturing supply chain.
We've GOT to get debt...I mean credit flowing again.
Angry Saver wrote:
One man's debt is another
asset.
Edit: every man's debt is another
asset.
Bob Dobbs~
I spent time in northern Thailand a long time ago, making aerial day trips to a variety of Southeast Asian countries, and I always found the tuk-tuk system of transportation to be an astonishingly effective method of moving people around.
picosec wrote:
I've been looking for one of those!
I'm perplexed by this sentence from Bloomberg: “Despite the recovery, several sectors remain in crisis,” Kurt M. Carlson, a bankruptcy lawyer at Chicago-based Much Shelist Denenberg Ament & Rubenstein P.C., said in an e-mail. “The real estate markets haven’t improved. Vacancy rates continue to climb. Those in manufacturing are cutting costs.”
A recovery for whom?, banker bonuses, gollum sucks, JP rigor-mortis, Bogusbank of America, and CitiHeist. The rest of us are living GDII
One man's debt is another
asset.
Rob Dawg,
It works great as long as misguided faith in the printing press holds. Me? I have serious doubts about the Fed's ability to prevent deflation. For one, I think there are limits to the amount of debt an economy can carry.
i thought the four-years-out cutesy charts in the economist holiday joke issue were bad, but these 2012 forecasts take it to a whole new level... it is one thing to be generally ignorant of demographics, but to be so violently oblivious is a special talent
HollywoodHack wrote:
Queue Upton Sinclair comment?
During WW II while the citizenry was using ration books to buy the necessities it would have been treasonous to speak out against the war and the use of resources to feed the war industry/effort. After WW II we switched over to empire and the use of the financial sector to wage war and usurp the world's resources. Currently the nation has run aground from a bitter defeat in our economic war against the world. Using the citizenry wealth to support the financial sector is akin to the same sort of sacrifice frequently required in our nation's history. Patriotism requires this surrendering of our children's future. For God, Goldman Sachs and Country!
PSA from the Ministry of Truth
'night-anger dissipated.
the farther out one goes, the easier forecasting gets. and the inverse is true, no one knows if the dow will close up or down 100 points by friday (except maybe a few folks at GS
)
the country will be older, poorer and frighteningly efficient. we're steadily becoming just another country in latin america in every sense, but most especially in terms of class stratification. there's no reason for that trend to change in the slightest.
HollywoodHack wrote:
Interestingly, an economy in 2012 that can support 16m vehicle rates won't have much use for the vehicles GM can be making by 2012. It's just plain old lose-lose for them recovery in sales or no.
Won't replacement of cars go down?
Fewer jobs, lower wages, people will only replace a car if it is nessisary, not a want but a need.
Cars last a long time now if you take care of them.
even that is just overthinking it.
both of these things are obvious enough to be seen from space.
Here's another log to throw onto the fire of how everything is AOK with USA.
Bloomberg: ...."The number of Army suicides has risen 37% since 2006, and last year, the suicide rate surpassed that of the U.S. population for the first time.......The Army hit a grim milestone last year when the suicide rate exceeded that of the general population for the first time: 20.2 per 100,000 people in the military, compared with the civilian rate of 19.5 per 100,000."
The question I have is whether Uncle
Warren quietly secured a nice friendly rating for his new company before he sold off a fat chunk of Moody's.
Or whether he has swaps written by one of his banks against his new company. Win-win
You inspired a visit to his wiki bio - who knew that Monrovia had indoor plumbing circa WW1?
no one factors in the army of unemployable PTSD kids coming home in future entitlement calculations - which should be a significant drag on what should be a decent pop in the early 80s boomlet babies when they hit peak earnings in ten years
yogi
If Bloomberg is dumped $100 to CR and $100 to KCoop. The rest of you
Oh wait, that railroad has been around a long time, they must not have any debt left.
I'm almost embarrassed to admit that I found out just today about a privately owned bank that has for its only clients all the 57 or so privately owned central banks of the world, plus the IMF. Could this be the source of the famous Bilderberger conspiracy theories?
Bank for International Settlements - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
barfly wrote:
BIS is not really a bank and it isn't privately owned. They are more of a club where the central bankers exchange stories of how they pillage the peasants.
Uncle Ponzi
'No hard feelings. Uncle?'
I did some i-net research a few months ago and found that on average 42 million used cars are sold each year, ~3x the number of new cars. So cars bought new, then sold as used typically have a lot of life left in them, enough to get sold two more times.
BTS | Table 1-17: New and Used Passenger Car Sales and Leases (Thousands of vehicles)
Ok....I want in ! the personalized smiley icon club....If csc has his own! I'm one of the most prlific posters here....
don't make me go and name all my aliases...
my request.... smiling extatic monkey with a baboons red ass....art shop, get to work
BIS has been one of the saner voices during the bubble years, pointing out the global imbalances and the asset price inflation they were causing. I wish the BIS economists had been brought in to replace Bubbles Bernanke at our Central Bank.
Actually, that would be Phyllis Schlafly, who is somehow still alive.
HollywoodHack wrote:
I believe GWB took care of that problem. Those PTSD kids don't qualify for entitlement as they had psych issues prior to enlistment.
I would imagine that the VA is indeed more tightfisted these days
It is owned by the member central banks, themselves, according to the article, but what I found particularly interesting was the backstory:
YouTube - Banking with hitler
warning: Godwin alert!
they do however keep 120 tons or so of gold lying around. maybe someone with a sense of humor at the front office took Lenin's challenge literally.
.
........or drive them only 20-miles a week!
OK, I'm just watching "V", and now it's all explained .... the Visitors have been here for years. They infiltrated business. The meltdown was part of their plan! Diana the reptile (I refuse to call her Anna) is just bringing up universal health care .... [ not kidding, this was just explained in the plot]
The
- it's all true ...
many cars will last for 150,000 miles if well cared for.
150 months avg driving time
that's 12 years (rounded off)
I don't see allot of new cars that are going to be needed.
Black Star Ranch wrote:
Or are only allowed to drive them 20 miles per week. A-B-C stickers anyone?
I'm wondering what the costs differential is of owning a horse vs a car......in the city?
Damn! Black helicopters coming in low over the ridge!
Truck in hay, build a stall, keep the flys down and reshoe often.
Plan an extra hour to get to work?
Oh and the city fines for keeping the horse can add up.
Handsome well spoken "Visitors" with murky background histories infiltrate every level and promise universal healthcare.
Where have i heard this before?
If everyone maintained their cars the same way airplanes are maintained, they'd all be driving '57 Chevys.
lest we forget, the original aired back when bankers first discovered the joy of MBS on a massive scale and the CEO/worker pay gap began to rocket....
And in better news:
Associated Press - November 3, 2009 8:25 PM ET
AUSTIN, Texas (AP) - A proposition to limit the government's powers of eminent domain is getting overwhelming support from Texas voters in early election returns.
Proposition 11 had 81 percent of the vote favoring it, and 19 percent against, as initial results were tallied.
I've got a garage turn into a stall for horse
Buy hay to feed horse
Neighbor kids brush horse for free as it's pretty cool as there's no horses in the neighborhood.
Insurance for horse covered in homeowners policy. I mean really it's a pet that takes me for walks....
What's the life span of a horse? 20 years or more?
The horse is my "vehicle" and pet so I can't see how the city can fine me
I'm onto something..........
I did a couple of posts on where I see America in 10 years based on my story line.
Gold is down
Rats are few
We are living in
a military coup
The US Is GM - Tom Davenport - HarvardBusiness.org
Drip drip drip....
If everyone maintained their cars the same way airplanes are maintained, they'd all be driving '57 Chevys.
I would rather have my 69 Toranado with its 4 MPG instead
rps
get the kid to do the pooper scooping too.
also buy oats, hay alone is not good.
find a good vet and someone who can put new shoes on the horse. Shoes wear out faster on pavement.
WASHINGTON – Republicans wrested political control of Virginia from the Democrats on Tuesday and New Jersey's unpopular Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine was fighting for his political life a** independent voters swung behind the GOP**** in both states. It was a troubling sign for President Barack Obama and his party heading into an important midterm election year.
Republican Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell's victory in Virginia over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds was a triumph for a GOP looking to rebuild after being booted from power in national elections in 2006 and 2008. It also was a setback for the White House in a swing state that was a crucial part of Obama's electoral landslide just a year ago.
In New Jersey, exit polls showed Corzine locked in a close race, with independents heavily favoring his Republican challenger Chris Christie in a three-way contest with independent Chris Daggett.
Jeebus, I had to clean up after a stable of horses. Those huge Morgan and Clydesdales make hipboots a must.
rps, you're going to learn the meaning of "eat like a horse". A friend of mine who had one had to get it re-shod every three months, at about $75 a pop.
Horses are fun to ride.
Keeping one in the back yard, not so much.
I plan on taking the horse to the park 3X's a day to leave um, er, heh people do it all the time with their dogs....c'mon who'd notice?
A clear and concise Buffett BNI assessment from a commentator at Zero Hedge.
by buzzsaw99
on Tue, 11/03/2009 - 19:08
119119
This all ties together in a great big credit circle jerk where da boyz manufacture lending volume. Buffett lends to GS, GE, etc.. AIG gives the banks billions in taxpayer $ then borrows at higher rates even though they are dead. Then Buffett borrows for an LBO of BNI which includes BRK stock. If I owned BNI I would sell my BRK as soon as I got it. This shit will end badly.
ROFL
Horses don't wait until you walk them.
It turns out that C4C failed on yet another level:
A Clunker of a Climate Policy: Scientific American
Jeebus, what are we coming to?
barfly wrote:
Is that per shoe or four shoes?
Is hay cheaper than gas?
I have not figured out why notArealMerican would want to 101st chairborn about 50-70 comments a day.
Here in the out back 20 miles might get you to the state highway! Many life 50 miles from nowhere. Cars will likely last 20-250K miles. Income will determine new car purchases. On that point I vote for low sale for a long time. Fiat is toast and GM will be a drag on the government dole until they figure out they can't pay legacy cost not dumped in the cooked BK.
mp wrote:
Cuba?
here's my new comment rule.
each day I can only make the square root of my age comments in a day.
thats 3, I got three more.
that was for all four shoes. The old shoes had to be removed, the hooves filed and then the shoes re-fitted. Takes a good farrier about an hour or so.
I'm thinking...(my spouse always considers that dangerous) about rounding up all them wild horses in the western states and bringing them to Chicago and leasing the vacant car lots to sell horses. I wonder if I can put a deal together with some venture capitalists? Maybe Buffet would be interested?
Thanks Cr!
I'm going to go with the under based off these reasons..
Consumer credit score destruction
ABS credit market dysfunctional
Subprime lending or secondary lenders no longer in business, leaving a big void in loan availability to this growing shopper segmentc
consumer debt levels high pushing Dti levels past underwriting guidelines
jobs...
I make my living based off credit within auto industry and its as ugly as I've seen in my 20 years of experience....emphasis added based off what I'm seeing
It is unlikely that 17 million will be reached again anytime soon. In fact 12 million could be the high for some time as a "new normal" takes hold in a more cre4dit constrained economy. As living standards drop, as they must after the binge, the number of cars per family will also have to drop. It will simply be too expensive to have 3 cars.
A slightly dated stat had 1.01 cars per US licensed driver! The corresponding figure in Canada (a similar lifestyle country) was only 0.70, or 1/3 fewer cars per person. A drop in US cars to the same level would over time give a roughly 12 million sales rate.
Of course if you look at Japan, the situation is much different. In Tokyo there are only 0.5 cars per household!
rps
you going to tell everyone that it is an irish wolfhound.
"Or are only allowed to drive them 20 miles per week. A-B-C stickers anyone?"
what's abc? A b**chin commie?
Interesting article from NakedCapitalism. If the republicans actually went this route (breaking up the banks) they could easily sweep to power in 2010 and 2012. I don't think they are smart enough, though. They'd probably go the stimulus route, only it would be geared to military spending.
Trouble Ahead: Can the Right Seize the Banking Reform Issue in 2010? « naked capitalism
Living with 1 or even zero cars is money in the bank. You just can't live out in the burbs.
OT: Pandemic Flu. It's time again to read the leading edge posts at Recombinomics | Elegant Evolution FluTrackers - Tracking Infectious Diseases since 2006 FLU Symptoms Influenza Cold Virus Swine Flu
Hemorrhagic flu is appearing in Ukraine. This is the no laughing matter, severe level of pandemic flu. Little is known but it's killing at the rates one expects from severe pandemic flu. No, it won't be here tomorrow. But this is a clear heads up. Watch the number of clusters, the cluster sizes, the frequency of new clusters forming, and the geographic spread. In about 2 weeks, we can tell if this is another "Mexico, March 2009".
Responsible heads up!.
Investigators found that more than 500 claimants of the tax credit nationwide were minors as young as 4, so the new measure will require applicants to be at least 18 years old. Homes cannot be acquired from relatives, and taxpayers must submit a settlement statement as proof of purchase, though officials acknowledge that could be a problem for those who file tax returns electronically.
Congress Agrees to Keep Homebuyers' Tax Credit - NY Times
Don't all flu viruses kill?
gabyjan wrote:
No, I'm gonna tell them I'm a cop and the city of chicago had to cut back on horse stables due to budget cuts and I have to keep the horse in my garage.
Re: h1n1 it's pretty bad in Montreal right now according to my brother in law.
A healthy 13 yo boy died 36 hours after contracting it. They are starting to give everyone vaccine doses in stages.
the morons didn't foresee this? hopeless idiots.
rps
Wild horses are a great idea. Find a good person to break and train them.
Will you sell saddles, bridles and blankets too?
The
is a equal opportunity corrupter, I am afraid. Not gonna happen.
Looks like Corzine is going down in NJ. Do you think his status as a GS alum has any bearing on the race, or is it just generalized voter rage at incumbents.
It sure feels like it. It knocked me on my butt for 2 days.
Duh, taxes are stoopid.
Vote Republican.
Probably already well-known to this board: Saddle makers were investments for widows and orphans up until the time that newfangled automobile came along.
yogi:
In some places, at some levels, taxes are stupid. There is only so much blood to be extracted from us turnips. I don't know about NJ, but in NYS we have reached the level where there isn't much left to take.
Good to see some stakes going thru the
with hopefully many more to follow 
Uncle Warren owns a fat piece of
josap,
I figure my business venture would qualify for Obama's green climate change bill : from Der Spiegel: Obama pledged $70 billion (€47 billion) in tax credits, grants and loan guarantees to transform the United States into a green powerhouse.
The blankets saddles, etc... would be the extras$$$$$, just like cars
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Right, because republicans are much more monetarily responsible than democrats. :eyeroll:
Bad news yogi, they all look the same to me. And I mean that in the most racist way possible, since political creatures seem to enjoy a good race.
Looks like the voters are saying screw off to the healthcare/bailout/spend-like-crazy lazy shiftless loser apologists.
with all the crap Warren eats at his advanced age I'm surprised he doesn't yet have hardening of the arteries with decreased blood flow to the brain !
How does a horse do on an emissions test? They will probably need a down stream exhaust scrubber system! Maybe they can pay an excessive emissions tax.
I watched the NJ debates. Some vote-splitter shill ran as an independent, agreeing with Corzine on almost everything.
Christie just kept to the mantra: "I'm going to lower taxes". Couldn't say how or what would be cut, although asked many times.
Newark will be on strike soon.
Yeah but Warren paid TOO DAMN MUCH for the railroad. I'm a Bershire shareholder and I think this is a stupid, overpriced purchase. He didn't have to pay that much. Might look good in 10 years though, at which point I might be dead.
Ben D
In Italy they had dippers on the carriage horses.
And Warren's purchase today had all the hallmarks of the sticksaves of 2008...
Remember when Warren was buying Bear Stearns? One of my best fades ever...
Yeah right.... how many NJ voters have gone to U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time
Until we have a viable populist 3rd party America will be owned by the
mp wrote:
Yep! I did my commercial multi in a '58 Travel Scare. err, Trouble Air, err
I put $1000 on the 2010 SAAR under (in 2010 dollars of course). Will be less than 11 million SAAR. Bank on it.
deanfv wrote:
Um, did it ever occur to you that Warren is living out his childhood dream of owning a train set? Santa forgot the train set when Warren was 6yrs. old and he NEVER FORGOT! Warren is 79yrs. old and he's reverting to his childhood wants. If I'm lucky, maybe he wanted horseys too!