Conveniently right before F goes into a prepackaged BK--allegedly? We can do it, but first, take over my liabilities and give me some of that sweet, sweet smack!
she did say a very parttime teen answering phones. Its a work ethic thing. If she was playing solitaire or messing around with google earth for example I would be more forgiving and not even notice it as long as she was doing her job satisfactorily. Porn however is a whole other ball of wax, particularly if she is a minor.
That situation takes you back to "Document. Document! DOCUMENT!!11!!"
.
I don't know the situation or the dynamics. Porn is a serious occupational offense, but I've known tons of people who have gotten slaps on the wrist for it or management just quietly blocks it at the point of entry. Firing every person who has ever looked at porn at work would result in quite a few men--and possibly a few women. I've seen it joked about in Dilbert and Pearls Before Swine.
.
As for work ethic, I won't snark, but I will say that fish rot from the head down, yes?
Ford was a client of a firm I worked for in the 1990s. I was always impressed with their financial savvy. If I had been asked in 1999 to guess which US automaker would be the least likely to go BK, I would have said Ford.
If I had been asked about the most likely foreign automaker to go BK, frankly, I was worried about Mazda.
I was thinking about the previous So Cal housing bubbles in the 1980's and 90's, and they were powerful for as long as they lasted, and strictly regional. I don't remember that many people buying 2-3-4 homes, like they did during this worldwide housing bubble.
Gold is in a short squeeze. I'll exit at 1084 through 1094, on 1/2 the short term trading position taken at 990-95.
The shorts are frightened and this next zing up will be their coup. Many entering here will get religion real fast as that $10 gap is under us, unattended to. This is day 1 after the gap. LT gold holdings are unaffected. Free ride to The Great Doubling, $2000, maybe 10 months out.
orwell, we're doing just fine. BTW, as my comment at Mish's today just disappeared, I figure I'm persona non grata. Who needs someone calling the market better than the blog host? Foolish. I expect soon enough to see the M on MSM as the foil. He's gotta make a buck, too. He's right, just not issuing investment timely advice for those who like the early stages of the moves, the low risk times.
Let's put it this way...most of readership here don't fall into the irresponsible crowd. You may be asking the correct question but in the wrong place IMO.
See dawg, you assume the bank is paying the bonus, but it is we, the sheeple.
I go with neither. Give A a reasonable flat fee for good advice (assuming it was, and you needed some). Pay B a salary for his time and suggest he should try to become a golf pro.
If I had been asked in 1999 to guess which US automaker would be the least likely to go BK, I would have said Ford.
Wow, talk about damning with faint praise!
Seriously, though, I'm with Nemo. I hope they're able to pull through without a BK. I just don't know whether they can scale down their fixed costs and retool their product line quickly ehough to survive in a world where auto sales of 10M a year are the "new normal".
I know virtually nothing about the auto industry ... but I have my doubts.
she did say a very parttime teen answering phones. Its a work ethic thing.
I'm a context matters kind of guy. I'm more likely to have a theoretical discussion about what should happen in the work place if porn is discovered, while making it clear that although I value other opinions, as the boss it's my decision. In other words I agree with the one chance philosophy. (After all, it was never stated explicitly was it? And you're talking to someone without any background in work ethics, aren't you? Blame society, Florida schools, whatever,...counsel for the the defense would bring up a few objections, ...have a talk to clear up those objections and move on.)
Sounds like Ford's gain came at others expense. From news release:
"Ford estimates its total market share in October was more than 15 percent – higher than a year ago and higher than its share in the first nine months of 2009. Ford’s October retail share was up for the 12th time in 13 months."
You may be asking the correct question but in the wrong place IMO.- MS
And nobody here ever games the market, buys into stuff they don't believe in, shorts, or posts while they're at work? Or cheats on taxes, doesn't give to charity, cheats on alimony and child support, squeezes their vendors, runs parallel accounting systems, hides profits from factors, etc. etc. There are a million ways to be less than saintly.
Even people who bought in 2002 with the expectation that housing prices would at least keep pace with inflation have bought into the system, even if they were "brainwashed" and co-opted. Are you telling me that no one here has never done any stuff like that? It's not the screw-ups per se, its the self-righteousness I have a problem with.
Not skillful enough, and promoting ignorance, and lacking awareness, and lacking wise action.
No. Being self-delusional and duplicitous is NOT lacking awareness or being ignorant. It is being a PURE scumbag. It is enlightenment. It is the ultimate wisdom.
I would have said Ford...especially with Nasser's penchant for overpaying on deals...they would have been set for a long time had that episode of management been denied control. They spent billions on Aston, Jaguar, F1 team and got back much less from those ah "investments".
No really, I have no culpability for the housing bubble, and made a reasonable effort to try to inform those around me about it.
However, because the firm I worked for also did mortgages and securitizations, I'll bet the pay and bonuses of most of the people working there were larger. That car I'm driving might be indirectly paid for in part by mortgage securitizations.
I was more directly the beneficiary of a lending environment for my institutional clients. It was part of the same easy credit environment.
Ford was a client of a firm I worked for in the 1990s. I was always impressed with their financial savvy. If I had been asked in 1999 to guess which US automaker would be the least likely to go BK, I would have said Ford.
In 1999, didn't Ford have that asshat Nasser that tried to turn it into an internet company?
Does it say anything about the sale of Volvo to a China unit as leading bidder? Poor Volvo, its been 'round the world. I also noted that Hummer got bought by a company in China. China likes building cars it seems. Pardon my laziness.
What was the point in branding their F1 team 'Jaguar'? Hundreds of millions of dollars spent ... for Jaguar? What a waste. They should have kept sponsoring Stewart Ford, where they would have gotten both better results and better brand exposure for Ford.
now you are just being silly. Are we all supposed to live our lives as a monk perhaps?
I'm sure you've done a few things as well. Let's not get a soapbox out and preach to the choir.
If you read my original response you'll see that I don't disagree entirely with you......but at this point it's a bit much to preach from the 'top.
Participating in a scam run by others is almost as good as running your own scam
No scam. No defaults among my clients, and I don't expect any. Still, the rates some of them were charged was absurdly low. I had one client who did an RFP for a fairly important service and was quoted the price of FREE. Talk about trying to buy market share. There was an arcane regulatory reason for it, but the bidder was willing to give away the service for several years to get the client in the longer term.
Actually they should have stuck to it's original racing mantra and continued with LeMans/Sportscars. They would have owned the place, much like Audi has.
Nasser was always the ruin of it's (ford's) racing program.
@ some investor guy- thanks. I'm not looking for a confessional from anybody. I'm just getting tired of the "we are perfect, they are evil" attitude. In fact, everybody I know was sucked into this vortex thinking it was "normal." I certainly would not have built a home in 2004 if I had certain knowledge of the future. But nobody does. It's easy to say "hoocoodanode" if you've really into this subject, but for most people, who don't follow economics and finance, it's been like a meteor striking the Earth. Even people who should have known just didn't take the time to find out. Does that make them evil?
Always disappointed with humanity. In your travels over the earth have you considered my servant Job?
(Errrr, I mean Pavel)
(Although not wishing Pavel any ill)
Oh, and if you can find 10 righteous men in D.C. I'll spare it. Otherwise I'm going to warm the globe up and inundate the earth.
(Yeah, I know I'm doing a little latter day editing of the OT)
Ms-Scone is a new Jimmy Swaggert convert...not worth the effort...
People get pissed when they see immorality rewarded. The longing for the past is generally an effort to recapture a "more moral time" - which never really existed. But, when people are younger thet are less wise (defintion: duplicitous and self-delusional) and - therefore - simply didn't recognize that the same scams have been run forever.
Too bad you were distracted from the topic of the last thread. The USA Today article suggested one of your favorite memes; cramming down principle to keep homes occupied and maintained.
Are we all supposed to live our lives as a monk perhaps?
I'm sure you've done a few things as well. Let's not get a soapbox out and preach to the choir.- MS
If you really read what I wrote, you'd see I'm not suggesting anyone is a saint. I'm saying that none of us are saints. None. None. Especially me-- that's why I'm bringing it up!
IMO, the self-righteousness is misplaced. And a little humility would go a long way, too.
Well, if GM and Chrysler's BK forced Ford's workers to do the same work with concessions, then they paid for some; and if Ford can can charge a premium because of C4C then the taxpayer paid for some; and if their salesmen extracted a better price through puffery then the buyer paid for some...etc.
There's always that faint hope that Ford has reinvented the wheel or built a better mousetrap. That would justify a bonus in any economic system.
Surprisingly.. Ford are producing some decent vehicles at the moment. Their biggest challenge will now be from the cost structures of the government sponsored auto-makers.
When the figures come out I expect to see Ford's growth came from eating into the marketshare of everyone else.
~splat
Most people are "scumbags" . "scumbags" = duplicitous with compensating self-delusion = wisdom = "morals". It's the formula for human happiness. Most people are happy.
HONG KONG -- Morgan Stanley has re-started the sale of its stake in China's first joint-venture investment bank, China International Capital Corp., a deal that could fetch more than $1 billion and would remove a major roadblock in the Wall Street firm's effort to build a bigger presence in China.
Morgan Stanley asked potential buyers to submit indicative first-round bids Tuesday for its 34.3% stake in CICC, according to people familiar with the situation. Expected bidders for the stake include several international private-equity firms, according to the people.
If consummated, the deal would be a major breakthrough for Morgan Stanley. ...
While we're (at least partially) on topic, can someone please explain to me why Ford hasn't taken the Lincoln nameplate back behind the shed and put it out of its misery yet?
For Glod's sake, the line has 7 different vehicles (trivia question: name 4 of them!) and yet total sales - of all 7 combined! - are less than 66,000 so far in 2009. That's less than the Econoline van has sold all by itself ... hell, I didn't even know Ford still made the Econoline!
I especially love this line from the sales chart: (sales # are 10/09, 10/08, % change)
Mark LT 1 379 -99.7
Alright, who bought the only Mark LT sold in all of America last month? Any budding investigative journalists out there?
Surprisingly.. Ford are producing some decent vehicles at the moment.
I just realized that is true. Automakers are going to have to produce cars that people want,...instead of trying to convince people that what people want is what they are making.
Ford's press release confuses me. They claim October to be up 21% from September sales, but September sales were reported as 114,655, only a 15% increase.
While we're (at least partially) on topic, can someone please explain to me why Ford hasn't taken the Lincoln nameplate back behind the shed and put it out of its misery yet?
Do they still have separate Lincoln/Mercury dealers? If not, then it's NBD. On the other hand, my Dad told me that Studebaker kept Packard around while it was killing innovative models like the Avanti, and this sort of thing hastened its demise.
Yea..ok.... I'm not the one tossing around labels.
"Silly" isn't a label then? Gosh, I never knew that.
But there is a point behind all this. Because people are imperfect and can't see the future clearly, and are not likely to change, it's probable that we'll see more disasters like this one in the future. And everyone will be a part of that. I don't think it's avoidable no matter how much econ one reads. It's just human nature to pursue short-term perceived self-interest, rather than long-term true self-interest. So I'm expecting several more nasty recessions in my lifetime.
Ford's press release confuses me. They claim October to be up 21% from September sales, but September sales were reported as 114,655, only a 15% increase.
Ford is both a brand and a company.
You are confusing all the brands that are under the Ford Motor Company umbrella with Ford-branded vehicles (which is only one of the brands under the Ford Motor Company umbrella).
for most people, who don't follow economics and finance, it's been like a meteor striking the Earth. Even people who should have known just didn't take the time to find out. Does that make them evil?
For your average person, it all looked like a fountain of free money. However, there were a number of people without formal training who were very suspicious. Regular people, some of whom had seen the TX bust of the 1980s, or the CA bust of the 1990s.
The people who should have known that I have an issue with fall into several groups. 1. Regulators. If you aren't looking for problems which can cause the amount of damage the housing and credit bubble did, what exactly was the purpose of regulation in 2003-2007? 2. If you were a risk manager, risk analyst, or similar role, why didn't your models include little foreseeable problems like home prices levelling out? Going down? Decreased availability of refinancing? 3. High level political staffers. This may sound like an odd group. However, many of them are well versed in economics and/or finance. It is usually a staffer or constituent that alerts a politician to big potential problems.
at ___ market share ~ US SAAR
10% ~ 15.89mn
15% ~ 10.59mn
20% ~ 7.94mn
Ford has around 16% I think (number is more volatile than it used to be), so that would make for ~ 9.94mn US SAAR auto sales
anything less than 12mn represents a depletion of shadow inventory, and the prior decade of 15-17mn US SAAR auto sales represented a surge in shadow inventory
cinco-lots of stand alone lincoln dealers..usually integrated with Jaguar, Mazda, Land Rover under same rooftop..
example...
Alvarez Jaguar Lincoln Mercury - Riverside area Lincoln Mercury Jaguar dealer in Riverside California. Ontario Jaguar Lincoln Mercury parts dealer. Anaheim Jaguar Lincoln Mercury dealer cars parts, Laguna Beach Jaguar Lincoln Mercury dealer cars parts, Ir
Hmmml.... haven't looked at a Ford since I switched to Mazdas in the mid-'90s. I guess this may be the result of those dealer agreements that everyone was talking about last Fall. I hope Ford doesn't need to file BK to get out from under them-
Oxtail, fwiw I said 2.61% ± 0.3% Q3 GDP and said any undershot on my part would be a direct subtraction from Q4 (either through govt spending, or net exports). I'm no god, and it was an educated armchair guess. At 3.5% they will have huge downward revisions because inventory added 0.9% when it certainly should have subtracted. Another 2 months before the numbers actually come in, so it's best to relax in anticipation
lawyer liz
left post beneath the pig and another thought underage porn thats a big no no.
threetorchs left post for you also, should read never instead of ever.get rid of anything on your computer,the only way is to smash the hard drive. and thats the only way i know of.
Boy, if Buffett is able to extract bonus wealth from private ownership of an entire railroad he had no part in designing, building, or operating history won't rhyme but it will be farce.
Well, if GM and Chrysler's BK forced Ford's workers to do the same work with concessions...
The Ford UAW workers are currently voting on a new labor contract with Ford that is exactly the same as the labor contract agreed to by GM and Chrysler UAW workers. Current voting tallies show that it has an approximately 0% chance of passing.
If you wanted a real-world example of the conflict of interest created when the UAW was given ownership stakes in GM and Chrysler, this is it. They are putting Ford at a competitive disadvantage.
Incidentally, Canadian workers are agreeing to the new contract - I would expect that they think this is a way to get Ford to build more cars there.
If you were a risk manager, risk analyst, or similar role
High level political staffers.
SIG
Agreed, these people "should have known, and could have known." But if you remember those go-go days, anybody who said "this gravy train is bullshit" was marginalized and silenced. How many people are going to resign their jobs and risk not getting another, to buck the groupthink? Most people are going to feed their families first, and go along with their social group, rather than risk getting shit on. Does that make them evil, or just normal, flawed human beings? I'm not saying they did right, I'm just saying I don't think I would have acted any better if I were in their shoes, knowing what they knew at the time, under their pressures.
IMO, if you really want a political and economic system that's bulletproofed against ordinary human screwups, it's going to be a long, difficult project. I can't imagine any system that some group of people couldn't destroy, given sufficient time.
I think every recession has had 1 quarter of positive growth during it. It's only natural that one of the longest in history would have the same even without government intervention
How many people are going to resign their jobs and risk not getting another, to buck the groupthink?
You are right. How many people are going to say the Weapons of Mass Delusion were BS? How many people on here are still "wise enough" to believe they did exist. How many people still think we can "win" the war on ___________ (fill in the blank).
(Edit:) How many people think we can simulate our way to prosperity.
Self-delusion and duplicity make the world go round.
can someone please explain to me why Ford hasn't taken the Lincoln nameplate back behind the shed and put it out of its misery yet?
I actually hope that Ford can fix Lincoln. They used to make nice cars. They just need to fire the idiot who thought it would be a good idea to make a front-wheel drive Lincoln, and go back to making cars that people want when they look at Lincoln.
Ford's press release confuses me. They claim October to be up 21% from September sales, but September sales were reported as 114,655, only a 15% increase.
I think I can answer my own question...
Ford claims credit for 4,437 Volvos as well, bringing the total to 136,920. The September number that I kept track of (114,655) must not have included any Volvos. It's interesting that their headline number excludes Volvos but their comparison stats include them.
..NOT the sharpest tools in the shed. The Smart people are on the scam side, where they should be.
I know of one ceo of HELOC division of big 19; she had boatloads of risk people, but she made her millions in fees selling HELOC contracts. When the finally the SHTF and the bank wrote off 1$B in late 2008, she quietly left the bank and joined another smaller bag soon after, richer by a scores of millions and awards . The bank had at least 100 risk and credit personnel actively involved in managing risk. But the scam flourished anyway, its the fees that swayed everybody and made millions for the scamsters. Unless we have claw back provisions, this will continue.
I think every recession has had 1 quarter of positive growth during it. It's only natural that one of the longest in history would have the same even without government intervention
This recession is so long and the y-o-y comparison so low that 2 quarters are likely. We'll still be in "a" recession end of 2010 but TPTB will have successfully diverted the issue to one of semantics.
Destroying a hard drive is not necessary, and a complete reformat and OS reinstall isn't always necessary either but it is often a simple way to deal with the problem. I would do this if I were you.
The problem with "deleting" data is that deleting just frees up the space for use later on, not actually removing the data.
There are programs that will write over all of the unused portions of the drive, which actually removes the data since it is overwritten with new data. I would probably do the reformat and OS reinstall but this is a decent option as well, but would do a good spyware and virus scan first.
FWIW, I do a reformat and reinstall when I get rid of old computers, but I don't have much sensitive information on mine. If I had financial information or business information, I would pull the hard drive after a reformat and drill it.
Interesting aside, local FBI found a laptop connected to a homicide a few years back and recovered images of the crime scene. The kicker is the laptop had been burned in a BBQ pit, and thrown in a lake. My thought was wow, good recovery job, and then, what idiot photographs their crime scene and saves the photos?
UAW should have had their pensions tied to Gm/Chrysler stock options bonds years ago. That way the taxpayer would have not had to bailout a large company all at once.
yogi
GM's Ontario plants consistently took the top 3 assembly plants for quality in North America. The better quality Ford cars come out of Mexico because they don't worry about investing in new robots/equipment that may replace a union job. I know what you mean to say, but it's irrelevant in this context.
Ford has been steering into a bankruptcy glidepath for some time. They will either get a sweet deal, and maybe avoid bankruptcy, or they will go into bankruptcy and get a sweet deal then. It's the same reason why the union is not giving concessions, you don't want to give away cards you can play at bankruptcy. Ford had great timing combined with a lot of hard work, but there is fundamentally no way they can compete with the legacy debt and dealerships. Maybe the Ford Foundation shouldn't have spent so much money on right wing dictators during the golden years, who knows, hindsight is 20/20. Even GM is likely to re-enter bankruptcy and the current creditors would get 70 ¢ on the $ according to Altman I believe.
"I think it was very significant that Paul Mercier, a senior central banker [from the European Central Bank] said official holders overall will no longer be net sellers of gold," said UBS analyst John Reade today, summing up the London Bullion Market Association's 2009 conference here in Edinburgh.
**
Given the Indian announcement overnight, that forecast's already true for this year. Central banks are now net buyers.**
On that time scale, I think he'll be remembered as someone who did well, but not spectacularly. His holdings are too big now to grow at a massive rate, but he'll probably hit a few more balls out of the park, and probably take some losses on similar size deals. Even if he doesn't do that well from now on, he'll still be remembered for his impressive record.
Ford has been steering into a bankruptcy glidepath for some time.
It would be silly for them NOT to go into BK. If everybody else has had their debt wiped out, Ford can't compete paying interest on pre-bubble accumulated debt. Wipe out the debt, and start from a clean slate.
Rob Dawg
I don't see Q4 being positive. The GDP workhorses of Net Exports and Government spending will very likely decline on net (remember state and local governments), and private fixed investment has been tracking net exports. Inventory is stabilized, but everyone seems content with a new normal of lower inventory. With contracting credit, it makes sense. The other components aren't ready to shoulder the burden. Q1Y2010 will be a bloodbath unless they formally start planning a new stimpack within the month, and then fast track it -- not going to happen in the current political environment, no crisis, no crisis-prevention
"How many people think we can simulate our way to prosperity."
I think you are on to something there, why stimulate the economy when you can simulate it.
Saddam sure made people think he had WMD, and I have wondered if he was delusional himself and believed he did or he was playing the punch the tar baby role.
If you were tasked with creating 1000 pounds of nasty compound X and only made 1 pound, would you admit it to Saddam, or put on a nasty demonstration with what you had to "prove" you had 1000 pounds?
Germany has socialized medicine and pensions so the state pays for the exploding medical and pension costs of the German car companies' employees. Also the unions over there have a much more cooperative relationship with the company.
I don't understand why Germany seems to be doing better, with their car plants and unions, than the USA?
What's their productivity compared to a US auto-worker ? I thought it was significantly higher but I can't find any metrics to back-up that claim, perhaps it's Deutsch auto-propaganda
~splat
I remember reading an article from Spiegel earlier this year about how 2010 is going to be a disaster for German carmakers because of their superC4C program there. Was that just sensationalism or was there something substantial there?
I see Warren Buffet over the next ten years as a captain who goes down with the ship sitting in the crows nest he will be able to stay above water for some time. You have to say that 30% or so of the US population will never really recover from this recession
Agreed. Although I don't understand why Germany seems to be doing better, with their car plants and unions, than the USA?
the workers are recorded as only working part-time and the German government pays a substantial portion of the difference between full-time, but in reality they are working full time and the employers were collecting subsidies. Election was on so it continued. Now with the Center-Right government, Merkel is up the creek to cut taxes and the deficit. That's a small part of it anyhow
In general though, corporate-union relations are completely different between the 2 countries.
Should be fun with German banking exposure to CMBS and ship loans. All the dangers we warned Werner about
My kid goes to a local private school. Of the 140 students about 22 are out. One preschooler has confirmed H1N1. My kid is on antibiotics with high temperature since Saturday. I don't understand why the schools are still open.
Of course my point is that it's the BK game that gives GM and Chrysler a competitive edge, nothing to do with who owns what. I was responding to Chicago dude above.
The twist with GM is that Obama appeared to be pro-union. Most of the time in history BK has worked to bust unions. It's a game of chicken, and management/ownership can usually live fine for years sitting idle. I've said all along Ford can't keep up without a miracle.
the workers are recorded as only working part-time and the German government pays a substantial portion of the difference between full-time, but in reality they are working full time and the employers were collecting subsidies. - EHP
Sound of jaw dropping. Kind of a permanent bailout there. Do governments subsidize car industries just on economic grounds, or because the skills have military applications?
scone wrote:
Do governments subsidize car industries just on economic grounds, or because the skills have military applications?
Would you accept "both" as an answer?
In a way there is a constant C4C in Germany. They have quite the inspection process for older vehicles. It's for road safety although since the autobahn's are so clogged with traffic now I don't see it being the same as it's original intention.
Pandemic Flu: The schools will not close. The knock on effect to the economy will be devastating. The mortality rate is tolerable as this pandemic is mild. Illness alone does not equate to societally destructive mortality rate of H5N1, 60% plus of those who are infected.
You Vill Vork for d'a Squid! This ain't duck and cover.
Keep your eyes open, however, for round two of this pandemic flu. The smart people are watching now and again for serious impacts of the next recombination. Will it arrive? Does day follow night? Nature has no vested interest in outcomes; they just happen. That will be the doozie. Meanwhile, if you don't have kids under age 35, you're okay. Under that, rug rats are at the highest risk, and then primary school kids.
So we have Zombie banks.. I guess now with Chrysler we have a Zombie car company too !
33% drop in sales (!!) they need to change their marketing slogan from "We're not dead yet" to "We're still twitchin'"
~splat
Oxtail
I accidentally hit discard. Here goes quick repost.
Germany was the original C4C country, their program was the largest too. Auto production is hugely important. From manufacturing all the way up to HQ service sector
Daimler, BMW, Opel, Porsche, Volkswagen, Audi ... all from a country of 60mn Wessies and 20mn Ossies
We will see how the lead balloon flies in 2010 for Germany
Chrysler hasn't been a car manufacturer for years. That was just a private equity bailout. The sooner it is shutdown, the healthier auto production in NA will be
Ah, I didn't see that Buffet BNSF purchase until now.
That's a good move especially IF the Government starts paying for rail-infrastructure projects over the next decade; which they are expected to do for “green reasons” and (of course) jobs jobs jobs. This could include electrification of high capacity routes coupled with an upgraded nationwide electrical distribution system with new nuke plants. BNSF has its LA to Chicago "transcontinental" route which would be a good “candidate” for a project like this. BNSF is probably best purchase of the big 5 US railroads.
Buffet will do alright with this one.
Rail will benefit as a cheaper alternative to long-haul trucking for "non-time sensitive" materials.
Which will be almost all materials, pretty soon! If time is money, we are all about to have a lot more time on our hands, and a lot less money in our pockets.
Trucks will evolve to handle mostly the "last-mile" trips.
Rail- When it absolutely, positively doesn't really have to be there any time in particular.
IIRC, the justification for agricultural subsidies and the interstate highway system all turned on military need. Which doesn't make much sense to me, if the whole system has an imported "critical path" item-- oil.
Rail- When it absolutely, positively doesn't really have to be there any time in particular.
Not as true as it used to be. BNSF is actually leader in guaranteed time delivery of containers for some very large truck shippers like UPS. The problem with railroads is their limited capacity for moving freight at different speeds. Coal and containers don't mix very well. Neither do passenger trains for the same reasons.
Silver will lag far behind . It will be used to barter and trade with and not necessarily a storage or wealth like Gold. Occasionally you will hear someone brag they have a "shinny" piece. That said silver coins for Christmas !
Pandemic Flu: The schools will not close. The knock on effect to the economy will be devastating. The mortality rate is tolerable as this pandemic is mild. Illness alone does not equate to societally destructive mortality rate of H5N1, 60% plus of those who are infected.
You Vill Vork for d'a Squid! This ain't duck and cover.
Keep your eyes open, however, for round two of this pandemic flu. The smart people are watching now and again for serious impacts of the next recombination. Will it arrive? Does day follow night? Nature has no vested interest in outcomes; they just happen. That will be the doozie. Meanwhile, if you don't have kids under age 35, you're okay. Under that, rug rats are at the highest risk, and then primary school kids.
Terry
Come on, they have a lock on the fridge in the glove box market. That's worth an extra $5,000 in maintenance per year. They poached those executives from a real estate marketing firm or something. There was a time when nobody knew granite counter tops were worth more than a new roof, and the Chrysler execs are the kinds of people who unlock that pricing power
The other difficult part about warning others of the doom-- you don't know which doom will flare up. At any given point there are N-possible dooms, but only some will actually come to pass. Which doom do you warn about, and/or hedge against, given limited time and resources? And not wanting to look like an idiot saying "the sky is falling" over every little thing, given that most of the dooms will die on the vine. I can't see how this is solvable. Thank God I'm not an economist.
I mean get out the power drill or drill press and drill a few holes in it, through the platters.
One common data recovery tactic is to physically remove the hard drive platters and install into a functioning drive, and this ensures that even if great efforts are taken, the drive is unrecoverable data wise. Yes, smashing the platters with a hammer works, but requires a pretty good beating to get to them and do enough damage.
It's an extreme move, but depending on what data you have, might make sense.
Note I just reformat and reinstall the OS and call it done, but I'm not running a business or have financial information on my hard drive.
Talked to a bullion brahmin with a retail store, and he told me the small people are sellers and the substantial people are buyers.
He emphasized once again the palatable look of fear in people's faces, until they do what the ancients only longed about, alchemy. Paper turned into gold.
Transmutation transportation tickets are still accepted as passage, for flights to quality...
I see but YOY Silver was at 20 bucks last March 08 and gold was at 1k. Look at where they are know. If we get runaway inflation I guess silver would be a better bet
Given the Indian announcement overnight, that forecast's already true for this year. Central banks are now net buyers.**
Historically this has to be the most bearish news for gold. Weren't these the same genius who sold most of their gold when it was trading close to its lows at around $300/oz
He emphasized once again the palatable look of fear in people's faces, until they do what the ancients only longed about, alchemy. Paper turned into gold.
I know. Doesn't it boggle the mind that nothing for something seems like a great thing?
Rob Dawg wrote:
Which version do you want? The coal fired or petroleum fired steam trains?
Nuclure steam trains. With a reactor IN the locomotive. High speed ones. What could go wrong?
It would have worked, except that the crew could only fly a single six month or one year mission before they hit their lifetime exposure limit to radiation.
If it were not for Fed and State subsidy of roadway, I do not think that would be the case.
VERY true. And any TRUE libertarian should be worshipping rail transportation in the US. The US and Canada have the only large scale private railroads that pay for their own infrastructure and pay dividends and interest WHILE completing with other modes of transportation which are completely subsidized.
I always (internally) laugh at the ignorance of pretend libertarians when the talk about transportation and all they can see is how EVIL Amtrak is. Amtrak is a fly on the butt of the transportation elephant. And private railroads are they only ones that make REAL libertarian profits.
Tim waiting for 2012 wrote:
Rail lines are expensive to maintain
Compared to highway? If it were not for Fed and State subsidy of roadway, I do not think that would be the case.
Which subsidies are those? Cite? Source? FHWA HM or HF series documents?
My kid is on antibiotics with high temperature since Saturday. I don't understand why the schools are still open.
Mine just broke his fever this morning, and is also on antibiotics. How a doctor and determine a child needs antibiotics after a cursory 30 second glance in his ears and throat escapes me. Medicine by statistical probability, I've been told.
Not a true as it used to be. BNSF is actually leader in guaranteed time delivery of containers for some very large truck shippers like UPS. The problem with railroads is their limited capacity for moving freight a different speeds.
I agree with this 100%. Rail can be very efficient.
I really just mean the time arbitrage between a dedicated truck hauling ass on the interstate, and a freight train chugging along at a pre-determined speed. With more time and less money, many more folks will begin to choose saving money over saving time.
Coal don't spoil, grain keeps just fine, and ultimately passengers, too, if you get right down to it. (Heresy!)
Note: I am not talking about BS high-speed titanium-plated death-rocket bullet train BS ... just slow, cheap, comfortable Orient Express kind of passenger travel. With food, and internet access, and maybe a mysterious murder, if you are lucky!
no that was the Brits.....Gordon Browne to be specific...
crazyv-
Never had a problem with Schwab (Execution sucks though.......) in over 18 years with an IRA....having said that I can't really speak to safety of any custodial account anywhere as where we are headed we've never been.
O easily carried virginia in 2008 - the first time it went for dem in a presidential election since 1964. A lot of independent voters and in the past 10 years went from a red to purple state. McDonnell - the republican - gonna win and it won't be close. McDonnell has been hammering Deeds incessantly on spending and taxes.
Might provide a bit of backbone to the R's when the next stimulus raises its head.
are we talking about the same thing- in a self directed IRA you get to hold many of the things that the IRS allows e.g. promissory notes mortgages, rental property etc instead of just mutual funds and stocks and bonds.
the once-grand roundhouse is home to hidden treasure -- three oil-fired steam locomotives owned by Portland taxpayers and maintained by volunteers. Two of the engines are in working order and among the six largest steam engines operating in the world.
I am not talking about BS high-speed titanium-plated death-rocket bullet train BS
Don't forget, the Europeans already have all these BS trains. And, the eastern US is as densly populated as europe. With passenger trains, it's just another socialist scam, BUT all passenger transportation is a scam on the taxpayer, so trains should't be excluded simply because they aren't part of the scam now.
Coal don't spoil, grain keeps just fine, and ultimately passengers, too, if you get right down to it. (Heresy!)
Grain is a pain in the ass, at least in Canada. A thousand little elevators, each wanting only a few cars, but spaced apart hundreds of miles geographically. Due to the Canadian duopoly, rail companies extract huge rents from farmers in Canada. I don't know about the USA, but the nature of grain by rail can't be a whole lot different.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Which subsidies are those? Cite? Source? FHWA HM or HF series documents?
Are you kidding?
Attributing Federal Highway Revenues to Each State
Whereinthehell do you think those "revenues" come from? Those aren't subsidies. In fact they are less than what are collected as use fees. You said subsidies.
Came by to drop an OT I have been thinking about a lot lately:
If people of limited means were able to legally trade their vegetables for say, a computer, then they would be able to partially exit the the fraudulent credit based dollar economy.
Barter can be organized by commodity where the commodity becomes the monetary unit within the community. Also barter classifieds organized by item, once sufficiently large, could easily match haves and wants.
Barter is the matching of haves and wants. Things can be easily paired online, eliminating the dollar in the transaction. Eliminating the dollar excludes dollar based credit from that part of the economy and excludes the evil bastards that engineered the current collapse. Also, when a need is met without cash it leaves more cash to save.
You don't have to look far to find a big example of a barter market. Currencies are a barter market. For example, exchange rates are expressed in units of another currency, "EUR/USD" means euros in dollars. Currently a euro costs about $1.47. You could have an "Apples/Oranges" barter pair where apples would be expressed in oranges. Perhaps, it takes two apples to equal an orange. The exchange rate expressed in oranges would be .5 or half an orange equals one apple. Imagine suggested barter pairs instead of asking prices on a craigslist or ebay type matching system. Imagine a kelly blue book type repository of common accepted values for barter pairs like "Toaster/Microwave"
A marketplace such as this would grow beyond any of our wildest imaginings. Look at e-bay, loook at craigslist. What these companies did was create a marketplace.
Grain is a pain in the ass, at least in Canada. A thousand little elevators, each wanting only a few cars, but spaced apart hundreds of miles geographically. Due to the Canadian duopoly, rail companies extract huge rents from farmers in Canada. I don't know about the USA, but the nature of grain by rail can't be a whole lot different.
Nice to know our airline, telecommunications, and banking sectors have good company in government chosen oligopolyland
with moves in PM's and Oil today I gather things are going to get a bit interesting very soon. Just a hunch but something is going on under the radar at the moment....not just the daily pressures that we all know and love...this feels like something different to me.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Which subsidies are those? Cite? Source? FHWA HM or HF series documents?
Gimmy a break here. This isn't even worth typing. Who do you thing builds all these roads. And why? The evil government.
An unworthy cop out. You aren't even going to try because you know you are on the losing end of this issue. You do not get break until you substantiate or retract the claim. It is a pernicious evil to let memes like subsidized roads gain a foothold.
I think the danger of swine flu is from secondary bacterial infections, so probably playing it safe with the kids
I wasn't complaining; for all I know he had a raging ear infection. It was, however, the absolute speed of that visit. I have never been in and out of any doctor's office in 3 minutes before. It was awesome.
Partially off topic,
Consumption hit a post war record high as a % of GDP in the 3Q, that is not a healthy development over the long term, meanwhile investments share was almost unchanged near record (as in off the charts) low as a share of GDP. I think some of you might find this of interest.
Coal don't spoil, grain keeps just fine, and ultimately passengers, too, if you get right down to it. (Heresy!)
The key to keeping passengers happy is the quality of their environment. The airlines aren't setup to keep you on a runway for hours on end, but spend a day or two straight on a cruise ship without getting off and it's a different story. If you complain on the cruise ship, you won't be happy on any mode of transport.
Many of the businesses I have worked for and with over inflate their sense of urgency when shipping, and much of it comes down to making up for bad planning and scheduling in the first place.
With food, and internet access, and maybe a mysterious murder, if you are lucky!
Give me a nice restaurant, a bar car, a comfy bed and it sounds better than taking a plane.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Whereinthehell do you think those "revenues" come from? Those aren't subsidies.
Gasoline tax as a % of revenue, is disproportionate to highway usage and road wear. Trucking gets a substantial "free ride" on US highways.
If you are saying that the allocation of attributable expense among different classes of users is imperfect then fine but you said subsidy.
The 20 p/e is based on the past, investments are based on the future.
Here's my quick take. It's a $34 billion dollar deal. BNI will earn ~ $2 billion/year less opportunity costs (or borrowing costs) of the money which are low. The deal is a money maker, but I don't foresee a huge rate of return. Certainly not the 21% that BRKA has had over the past 40 years. Closer to the 7% return seen over the past decade. More than anything, I think it highlights the grim future of making money from money - something that is no longer automatic.
One more point. If Buffet buysBNI by issuing BRKA stock, it tells you something about Buffett's views of future returns - LOW!
tim
i googled warren buffett clayton homes,
now im going to have to ask my sister why she hates warren,she worked for wrangler/vf ? does he eat companies?
with moves in PM's and Oil today I gather things are going to get a bit interesting very soon. Just a hunch but something is going on under the radar at the moment....not just the daily pressures that we all know and love...this feels like something different to me.
Do governments subsidize car industries just on economic grounds, or because the skills have military applications?
I wish I could conceive of that line as discernible. I imagine that an ill-fed, underpaid, disenfranchised workforce facing a future of poverty level wages if any, chronic under-supply of housing and lack of educational opportunity in a wealthy country, makes a miserable fighting force.
Now add in a nasty devaluation of their promised pension through currency manipulation...
Can Warren run all those robots at his age?
I'd rather not experiment with whether we can outsource all manufacturing and hope someone will sell us good jet fighter drones, or whether we can rely on slave labor at home like you know who.
What's their productivity compared to a US auto-worker ? I thought it was significantly higher but I can't find any metrics to back-up that claim, perhaps it's Deutsch auto-propaganda
I wasn't complaining; for all I know he had a raging ear infection. It was, however, the absolute speed of that visit. I have never been in and out of any doctor's office in 3 minutes before. It was awesome.
they get paid per procedure. If they can have a shorter visit with you, they can allow more time for the appointment where they have to inform someone they are diagnosed with breast cancer
Good analysis but I don't think we will even see 7% I say half that based on demographics but I see the way you paint it as a fixed income play with upside to raw material price exposure.
Do you reckon the hoi ploy is completely perplexed and in over their pretty little heads, in regards to trying to figure out the dismal science?
One thing i've noticed is the usual Hollywood talking heads that are good for a quote about most everything, have been rendered speechless and/or bankrupt.
That is one of the risks with H1N1, is the possiblity that in some areas the demand on the local ability to deliver medical services will be completely swamped, which results in an immediate decline of quality of care (what is the spare ICU capacity in your area?)...
Yeah, grain can be a pain, but in the US at least the "farmer's co-op" system helps reduce overhead. Farmers typically get the grain to a local depot from whence it moves by rail en masse to end users.
But if you are not particularly stressed for time, the train really can stop in every little piss-ant town all across the land. Just like they used to, before we all got in such a hurry. From the redwood forests, to the Gulf Stream waters, etc. etc.
And passengers who are not in any hurry can travel quite comfortably by rail, too. Aunt Sally will see me in Flo-ridy when I get there, and I have Go-To-Meeting.com when I need to see someone in a hurry about some high-falutin' business matter.
(Passenger air is so doomed, when lots of people have all the time in the world and very little money in their pockets.)
I don't know about the USA, but the nature of grain by rail can't be a whole lot different.
Changing quickly the US, but slowly in Canada. The small grain elevators in the US and Canada were dependent on railroads in - what the industry calls - "loose car railroading". A few cars parked at each elevators. This is a money losing proposition for railroads. Way too much labor and lost-loaded-car time.
The US railroads are now giving bulk-train rates for trains of 50+ cars. This requires huge elevators, with the newer ones being able to load th train while moving - just like the big coal mines. The small guys are complaining, but the politicians are - of course - owned by the bigger fish so they (the peasants) have less clout.
Your Central Pacific railroad, only in the last 10 years was able to get out of the (famous) "Crows Nest" agreement which fixed grain rates moving over the Rockies from middle provinces at rates set in early 1900's (like 0.02 / ton-mile - I'm working from memory).
That is one of the risks with H1N1, is the possiblity that in some areas the demand on the local ability to deliver medical services will be completely swamped, which results in an immediate decline of quality of care (what is the spare ICU capacity in your area?)...
Wedding season in India starts in Feb. Inability of middle class to buy 10 tolas of gold could cause a stir. Indian government could be planning to control local gold price in an attempt to appease population.
nope, just that you have repeatedly asserted that the reserves (barrels in the ground) of the USA are the same as in the '70s and upon being shown that is not the case, you fall back (aka, cop out) to the R/P ratio...which actually makes my case, which at all times has been about the decline in production rates...
Nice to know our airline, telecommunications, and banking sectors have good company in government chosen oligopolyland
Indeed. I'm avoiding rhetorical slams to them, because this is an exceptionally complex issue, involving reams of legislation and regulation. But it does boil down to the fact that the government is trying to manage the western duopoly, and failing.
Any further analysis would probably start with the Crow Rate, if you're really interested this issue. Email me privately if you're curious, and I'll send some info.
I understand that there something about consumption that makes some of us uncomfortable. But (a) to the extent we import more than we used and even if we had balanced trade would not this itself lead to higher consumption relative to GDP, (b) manufacturing is more efficient and requires less capital investment again skewing the consumption numbers (c) what we consume is less "hard" once again requiring less investment and may even be supported by activities that fall within the consumption category.
IMO its not the level of consumption that matters but rather how much of it is financed with debt.
Your Central Pacific railroad, only in the last 10 years was able to get out of the (famous) "Crows Nest" agreement which fixed grain rates moving over the Rockies from middle provinces at rates set in early 1900's (like 0.02 / ton-mile - I'm working from memory).
That has decimated cattle production in British Columbia
the allocation of attributable expense among different classes of users is imperfect then fine but you said subsidy.
Yeah, I would call the interstate highway system a big fat subsidy. Not that we don't benifit as a nation from that, but a rose by any other name is still a rose.
Some people say Buffet got his head attached to an absolute zero DNA supercomputer and he needs the train lines to latch on to the entire country and suck its electrons dry.
That has decimated cattle production in British Columbia
Yeah, I bet it did. I think the railroad "negotiated" the expiration of the agreement in exchange for building a new tunnel under the Rockies someplace. It might be the longest tunnel in North America now. (again, working from memory). They spent a bundle on it. And, I think, all privately funded. CP is private. CN used to be a semi-government but I think it's private now too.
(Edit. They needed the tunnel to export coal out of your new port in Vancover. Which is a huge bulk export terminal. The tunnel was a pure engineering calculation. Tunnel cost - lifting a train X feet. Civil engineering at its best. )
noob goldberg
do you know if we're getting a discount from Glaxo Smith Cline because the vaccine ordered is 1 month behind schedule and at half the volumes promised? I have a feeling we're paying full price for vaccine that will be delivered after flu season judging by the government's silence on the problem
"The Treasury invited a small group of bloggers for a “discussion” with senior officials on Monday. Initially, the meeting was to be background, which is a sort of journalistic “FYI but you can’t use it” but we were told at the meeting that we could discuss the meeting as long as remarks were not attributed to particular individuals.
None of us knew in advance how many attendees there would be; there were eight of us at a two-hour session, Interfluidity, Marginal Revolution, Kid Dynamite’s World, Across the Curve, Financial Armageddon, Accrued Interest, and Aleph (and of course, others may have been invited who had scheduling conflicts)"
Your Central Pacific railroad, only in the last 10 years was able to get out of the (famous) "Crows Nest" agreement which fixed grain rates moving over the Rockies from middle provinces at rates set in early 1900's (like 0.02 / ton-mile - I'm working from memory).
Yeah, but they never gave back the land, did they?
I don't think we will even see 7% I say half that based on demographics but I see the way you paint it as a fixed income play with upside to raw material price exposure.
Tim 2012,
It looks better than 3.5% to me. Initially, I thought it was partially a bet against a falling dollar, something Buffett forecasts. But after thinking about it, I think it is a bet on a falling dollar. A falling dollar will cause oil to rise and push cargo onto rails.
In any event, I'm quite certain it's not a 20%/ year investment. I'm also quite certain we will see the death of Buffett before we see the death of the dollar.
I intentionally left out the 10y move as I don't even pretend to know what is going on in that neck 'o' the woods. I know what it should say but the other moves are more relevant in my view. They can move the 10 y around despite the other things that "should" affect it.
Of course, if you live in one of the cities that tore out railroad beds to install roller-blading paths, you will just have to walk to Aunt Sally's in Flo-ridy.
Sorry.
Do you reckon the hoi ploy is completely perplexed and in over their pretty little heads, in regards to trying to figure out the dismal science? - JD
I'm not sure anyone has it figured out, including economists. If there were one best system, or even several good systems which interacted well, we would not be having these problems. OTOH it's only been a few thousand years since the invention of complex societies with money, division of labor, etc. Maybe it takes 20,000 years to evolve something that is creative, yet stable.
Rob Dawg wrote:
It is a pernicious evil to let memes like subsidized roads gain a foothold.
No need to even comment. You can live in your libertarian fantasyland all you like. Enjoy.
You made an assertion that POV road transportation is subsidized. This is not true. The FHWA has data going back to 1929 that absolutely track revenue and expenditures at all levels of government that disprove your assertion. It is contemptuous of the readers to act as if this is my fantasy.
Do you think that the diagnosis was wrong? Training, knowledge, background, also understanding how much leeway they have. Wouldn't you respect a car mechanic who could diagnose your problem in a few seconds and didn't waste time on simple matters?
I have no idea how Ford is making money but I wish them all the luck in the world. Still, they kind of remind me of the Erie-Lackawanna Railroad circa 1971... in a dying industry, somehow still keeping their heads above water, but only one calamity away from going under.
jimportlandOR
you are lucky to have them. southern railroad(now the ns) used to run steam trains dont think they do it more. and that steam engine is gorgous.
funny thing when i was little i was scared to death of steam engines.
Not a true as it used to be. BNSF is actually leader in guaranteed time delivery of containers for some very large truck shippers like UPS. The problem with railroads is their limited capacity for moving freight a different speeds.
I agree with this 100%. Rail can be very efficient.
Perhaps the biggest problem with railroads is that they can't deliver directly to many businesses. As such, union labor is required to load, unload, and then reload onto trucks for local delivery. Hence, it becomes more expensive to use the "more efficient" rails. Ironic, huh?
Of course, if you live in one of the cities that tore out railroad beds to install roller-blading paths,
Some light-rail is going back on some of those trail. It was a good "rail bank" idea, actually. If they didn't build a bike-trail, there'd be houses now. It's too bad they didn't rail-bank the railroads they closed in LA in the 50's and 60's. Much of the LA light rail is build under what at one time was rail-right-of-way (Pacific Electric) but was reused for highways or buildings.
Do you think that the diagnosis was wrong? Training, knowledge, background, also understanding how much leeway they have. Wouldn't you respect a car mechanic who could diagnose your problem in a few seconds and didn't waste time on simple matters?
Speaking for myself, I didn't question him. I took my boy home and started him on antibiotics. If I thought I could self-diagnose I wouldn't have taken him to the doctor's in the first place.
But it was still the fastest appointment I've ever had.
I'm not advocating its continuation, but just sharing that I had heard first hand about the resulting conversion of slaughterhouses.
As for public/private. They are public entities in my mind. CN has in its corporate charter that its HQ must be in Montreal, and the CN tower was built with the handover only being in relatively recent memory. CN and CP didn't pay a dime for their lands, they were given rail ROW and then massive tracts of lands to pay for building the network. They are effectively unregulated, and can get away with any kind of crash/spill. BC Rail was sold to CN rail in a scam of government/lobbyist/kickback corruption.
The best way to handle the conflicts of interest against a free/efficient/effective market is to separate infrastructure/networks from service providers/operators. Ultimately that's where we'll end up because the failings of the existing market structure keep coming up, and for historical reasons there should be no expectation that the current exploitative system should continue.
anyways, neat talking about Canadian railways. I'm logging off for a while
A logger sells a truckload of timber for £100.
His cost of production is 4/5 of the price.
What is his profit?
Teaching Maths In 1980
A logger sells a truckload of timber for £100.
His cost of production is 80% of the price.
What is his profit?
Teaching Maths In 1990
A logger sells a truckload of timber for £100.
His cost of production is £80.
How much was his profit?
Teaching Maths In 2000
A logger sells a truckload of timber for £100.
His cost of production is £80 and his profit is £20.
Your assignment: Underline the number 20.
Teaching Maths In 2005
A logger cuts down a beautiful forest because he is selfish and inconsiderate and cares nothing for the habitat of animals or the preservation of our woodlands.
Your assignment: Discuss how the birds and squirrels might feel as the logger cut down their homes just for a measly profit of £20.
Teaching Maths In 2009.
A logger is arrested for trying to cut down a tree in case it may be offensive to Muslims or other religious
groups not consulted in the felling licence.
He is also fined £100 as his chainsaw is in breach of Health and Safety legislation as it deemed too dangerous and could cut something. He has used the chainsaw for over 20 years without incident however he does not have the correct certificate of competence and is therefore considered to be a recidivist and habitual criminal.
His DNA is sampled and his details circulated throughout all government agencies.
He protests and is taken to court and fined another £100 because he is such an easy target.
When he is released he returns to find Gypsies have cut down half his wood to build a camp on his land. He tries to throw them off but is arrested, prosecuted for harassing an ethnic minority, imprisoned and fined a further £100.
While he is in jail the Gypsies cut down the rest of his wood and sell it on the black market for £100 cash.
They also have a leaving barbecue of squirrel and pheasant and depart leaving behind several tonnes of rubbish and asbestos sheeting.
The forester on release is warned that failure to clear the fly tipped rubbish immediately at his own cost is an offence.
He complains and is arrested for environmental pollution, breach of the peace and invoiced £12,000 plus VAT for safe disposal costs by a regulated
government contractor.
Your assignment: How many times is the logger going to have to be arrested and fined before he realises that he is never going to make £20
profit by hard work, give up, sign onto the dole and live off the state for the rest of his life?
Teaching Maths In 2010
A logger doesn't sell a lorry load of timber because he can't get a loan to buy a new lorry because his bank has spent all his and their money on a derivative of securitised debt related to subprime mortgages in Alabama and lost the lot with only some government money left to pay a few million pound bonuses to their senior directors and the traders who made the biggest losses.
The logger struggles to pay the £1,200 road tax on his old lorry however, as it was built in the 1970 it no longer meets the emissions regulations and he is forced to scrap it.
Some Bulgarian loggers buy the lorry from the scrap merchant and put it back on the road.
They undercut everyone on price for haulage and send their cash back home, while claiming unemployment for themselves and their relatives.
If questioned they speak no English and it is easier to deport them at the government's expense.
Following their holiday back home they return to the UK with different names and fresh girls and start again.
The logger protests, is accused of being a bigoted racist and as his name is on the side of his old lorry he is forced to pay £1,500 registration fees as a gang master.
The Government borrows more money to pay more to the bankers as bonuses are not cheap.
The parliamentarians feel they are missing out and claim the difference on expenses and allowances.
Yeah, I would call the interstate highway system a big fat subsidy. Not that we don't benifit as a nation from that, but a rose by any other name is still a rose.
It was intended for military purposes, but it's existence helped trigger the move away from the rails. FWIW, I believe that 2 out of every 5 miles of interstate highway needs to be straight enough to serve as a runway in wartime-
If you are saying that the allocation of attributable expense among different classes of users is imperfect then fine
Perfection is a
I heard Afghanistan may get its first railroad. ---But things have been going so nicely with camels.
The question is not whether we'll ever find a perfect mechanism for allocating capital to transportation projects of any kind. Its what mechanism we use to make an imperfect decision. I vote for the vote. I guarantee you some will gain and some will lose whether a railroad is built or not.
I'm also pretty sure that no one is left who thinks that allowing anyone with financing to build a personal railroad between his vacation homes is the American way.
As such, union labor is required to load, unload, and then reload onto trucks for local delivery
NA!! Dude, that's like 50's stuff. When railroads were RETAIL transportation. Railroads are now wholesale. The trucks move containners from the business to terminals which are collected and moved on trains.
Railroads are still retail in bulk movements; coal, commodities, grain, etc.. But containners are where it's at now. BNSF leads in this, btw.
We are saved!
Just signed in and I'm first?
Guess not.
Hope the sole remaining U.S. carmaker actually makes it.
Conveniently right before F goes into a prepackaged BK--allegedly? We can do it, but first, take over my liabilities and give me some of that sweet, sweet smack!
That situation takes you back to "Document. Document! DOCUMENT!!11!!"
.
I don't know the situation or the dynamics. Porn is a serious occupational offense, but I've known tons of people who have gotten slaps on the wrist for it or management just quietly blocks it at the point of entry. Firing every person who has ever looked at porn at work would result in quite a few men--and possibly a few women. I've seen it joked about in Dilbert and Pearls Before Swine.
.
As for work ethic, I won't snark, but I will say that fish rot from the head down, yes?
Ford was a client of a firm I worked for in the 1990s. I was always impressed with their financial savvy. If I had been asked in 1999 to guess which US automaker would be the least likely to go BK, I would have said Ford.
If I had been asked about the most likely foreign automaker to go BK, frankly, I was worried about Mazda.
yagij wrote:
Btw, those of us at zombie banks have outstanding work ethic (just a reminder to anybody who doubts why you are paying your taxes).
Quantity is job 1.
GDP numbers not even a week old and already they're starting to revise down:
JPM, Merrill see weaker GDP after factory report - MarketWatch
Let's see if we hit EHP's 2.62 number when all is said and done.
Or was it 2.71? Don't remember anymore!
For some reason, I couldn't find the article CR linked so I can't answer this question: How much were sales for fleets?
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
I figured you were going to write how "work ethics" are for THOSE OTHER PEOPLE!
2.6% sounds like the GDP number for next year.
yagij wrote:
I forgot.
I WORK FOR A LIVING, I DON'T WATCH PORN ALL DAY AND EXPECT TO GET PAID FOR IT!!!! (But, only because they track it).
,rad CR,
I was thinking about the previous So Cal housing bubbles in the 1980's and 90's, and they were powerful for as long as they lasted, and strictly regional. I don't remember that many people buying 2-3-4 homes, like they did during this worldwide housing bubble.
Scones says..
Yes, that's kind of the response I imagined-- "I have done no wrong, it's all the other guys fault." I find that unlikely in the extreme
I find your bullshit extreme....
Here is moral number 1 for the last 30 years AND the new Merica of the future:
Moral #1 (the Prime Directive): If you're not running a scam in a corrupt society, you aren't going to be successful. Deal with it.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
iPhone internet package FTW?
Oxtail wrote:
To the surprise of no one. When was the last time the guberment released a report that wasn't later revised for the worse?
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Moral #2: To be a successful "scumbag" you must have ample duplicity and self-delusion. Both of which are the keys to a successful life.
Ah, the ignore button. Thanks, kcoop!
Gold is in a short squeeze. I'll exit at 1084 through 1094, on 1/2 the short term trading position taken at 990-95.
The shorts are frightened and this next zing up will be their coup. Many entering here will get religion real fast as that $10 gap is under us, unattended to. This is day 1 after the gap. LT gold holdings are unaffected. Free ride to The Great Doubling, $2000, maybe 10 months out.
orwell, we're doing just fine. BTW, as my comment at Mish's today just disappeared, I figure I'm persona non grata. Who needs someone calling the market better than the blog host? Foolish. I expect soon enough to see the M on MSM as the foil. He's gotta make a buck, too. He's right, just not issuing investment timely advice for those who like the early stages of the moves, the low risk times.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Who do I have to pay off to be left the hell alone, live my pitiful paltry amazingly boring life out and retain just a shred of dignity??
pigged..
scone-
Let's put it this way...most of readership here don't fall into the irresponsible crowd. You may be asking the correct question but in the wrong place IMO.
Ciao
MS
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Dignity: See moral #2.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Good insight-- you need to be smart enough to do the con, but dumb enough to ignore the consequences.
Nemo wrote:
Probably not, since the Govt. Motors has the implicit backing of the USG; how do you compete on that playing field-
adornosghost wrote:
NOT "dumb enough". Wise enough.
I go with neither. Give A a reasonable flat fee for good advice (assuming it was, and you needed some). Pay B a salary for his time and suggest he should try to become a golf pro.
Work is useful if it adds value. Useful to whom?
If I had been asked in 1999 to guess which US automaker would be the least likely to go BK, I would have said Ford.
Wow, talk about damning with faint praise!
Seriously, though, I'm with Nemo. I hope they're able to pull through without a BK. I just don't know whether they can scale down their fixed costs and retool their product line quickly ehough to survive in a world where auto sales of 10M a year are the "new normal".
I know virtually nothing about the auto industry ... but I have my doubts.
notarealamerican,
umm I didn't write that, it was the saintly scribe named Scone...
whom I'm sure partaked in most of the bubble fraud since he seems to accuse all here of doing it...
I'm a context matters kind of guy. I'm more likely to have a theoretical discussion about what should happen in the work place if porn is discovered, while making it clear that although I value other opinions, as the boss it's my decision. In other words I agree with the one chance philosophy. (After all, it was never stated explicitly was it? And you're talking to someone without any background in work ethics, aren't you? Blame society, Florida schools, whatever,...counsel for the the defense would bring up a few objections, ...have a talk to clear up those objections and move on.)
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
One must learn from the wise people.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Ok, I'll revert to my dharma background-- Not skillful enough, and promoting ignorance, and lacking awareness, and lacking wise action.
Sounds like Ford's gain came at others expense. From news release:
"Ford estimates its total market share in October was more than 15 percent – higher than a year ago and higher than its share in the first nine months of 2009. Ford’s October retail share was up for the 12th time in 13 months."
NEW PRODUCTS DRIVE FORD’S OCTOBER SALES, SHARE GAINS | Ford Motor Company Newsroom
You may be asking the correct question but in the wrong place IMO.- MS
And nobody here ever games the market, buys into stuff they don't believe in, shorts, or posts while they're at work? Or cheats on taxes, doesn't give to charity, cheats on alimony and child support, squeezes their vendors, runs parallel accounting systems, hides profits from factors, etc. etc. There are a million ways to be less than saintly.
Even people who bought in 2002 with the expectation that housing prices would at least keep pace with inflation have bought into the system, even if they were "brainwashed" and co-opted. Are you telling me that no one here has never done any stuff like that? It's not the screw-ups per se, its the self-righteousness I have a problem with.
black dog wrote:
Me likey
adornosghost wrote:
No. Being self-delusional and duplicitous is NOT lacking awareness or being ignorant. It is being a PURE scumbag. It is enlightenment. It is the ultimate wisdom.
mook-
I would have said Ford...especially with Nasser's penchant for overpaying on deals...they would have been set for a long time had that episode of management been denied control. They spent billions on Aston, Jaguar, F1 team and got back much less from those ah "investments".
Ciao
MS
Scone,
No really, I have no culpability for the housing bubble, and made a reasonable effort to try to inform those around me about it.
However, because the firm I worked for also did mortgages and securitizations, I'll bet the pay and bonuses of most of the people working there were larger. That car I'm driving might be indirectly paid for in part by mortgage securitizations.
I was more directly the beneficiary of a lending environment for my institutional clients. It was part of the same easy credit environment.
BMW's profit skids 74% as buyers shun luxury cars.
How do you say ouch in German?
some investor guy wrote:
In 1999, didn't Ford have that asshat Nasser that tried to turn it into an internet company?
some investor guy wrote:
Participating in a scam run by others is almost as good as running your own scam.
(Edit: it shows wisdom).
(Edit2: I work for a zombie. The ultimate scam. I'm still here. I'm wise)
(Edit3: Wise = duplicity + compensating self-delusion = "morality")
rps wrote:
I thought ABS was supposed to eliminate skids
Every self respecting techie knows that you surf pron on your iPhone and post regular crap to CR on your work computer.
Geeez...
Does it say anything about the sale of Volvo to a China unit as leading bidder? Poor Volvo, its been 'round the world. I also noted that Hummer got bought by a company in China. China likes building cars it seems. Pardon my laziness.
MS wrote:
What was the point in branding their F1 team 'Jaguar'? Hundreds of millions of dollars spent ... for Jaguar? What a waste. They should have kept sponsoring Stewart Ford, where they would have gotten both better results and better brand exposure for Ford.
BMW's profit skids 74%
Apparently the bankers are using their bonuses on Porsches instead.
Porsche U.S. October sales up 15.1% to 1,642 units - MarketWatch
scone-
now you are just being silly. Are we all supposed to live our lives as a monk perhaps?
I'm sure you've done a few things as well. Let's not get a soapbox out and preach to the choir.
If you read my original response you'll see that I don't disagree entirely with you......but at this point it's a bit much to preach from the 'top.
Ciao
MS
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Ms-Scone is a new Jimmy Swaggert convert...not worth the effort...
noVa-
Actually they should have stuck to it's original racing mantra and continued with LeMans/Sportscars. They would have owned the place, much like Audi has.
Nasser was always the ruin of it's (ford's) racing program.
Ciao
MS
@ some investor guy- thanks. I'm not looking for a confessional from anybody. I'm just getting tired of the "we are perfect, they are evil" attitude. In fact, everybody I know was sucked into this vortex thinking it was "normal." I certainly would not have built a home in 2004 if I had certain knowledge of the future. But nobody does. It's easy to say "hoocoodanode" if you've really into this subject, but for most people, who don't follow economics and finance, it's been like a meteor striking the Earth. Even people who should have known just didn't take the time to find out. Does that make them evil?
Always disappointed with humanity. In your travels over the earth have you considered my servant Job?
(Errrr, I mean Pavel)
(Although not wishing Pavel any ill)
Oh, and if you can find 10 righteous men in D.C. I'll spare it. Otherwise I'm going to warm the globe up and inundate the earth.
(Yeah, I know I'm doing a little latter day editing of the OT)
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
People get pissed when they see immorality rewarded. The longing for the past is generally an effort to recapture a "more moral time" - which never really existed. But, when people are younger thet are less wise (defintion: duplicitous and self-delusional) and - therefore - simply didn't recognize that the same scams have been run forever.
@Laywer Liz-
Too bad you were distracted from the topic of the last thread. The USA Today article suggested one of your favorite memes; cramming down principle to keep homes occupied and maintained.
slumdog you called it yesterday
Are we all supposed to live our lives as a monk perhaps?
I'm sure you've done a few things as well. Let's not get a soapbox out and preach to the choir.- MS
If you really read what I wrote, you'd see I'm not suggesting anyone is a saint. I'm saying that none of us are saints. None. None. Especially me-- that's why I'm bringing it up!
IMO, the self-righteousness is misplaced. And a little humility would go a long way, too.
Well, if GM and Chrysler's BK forced Ford's workers to do the same work with concessions, then they paid for some; and if Ford can can charge a premium because of C4C then the taxpayer paid for some; and if their salesmen extracted a better price through puffery then the buyer paid for some...etc.
There's always that faint hope that Ford has reinvented the wheel or built a better mousetrap. That would justify a bonus in any economic system.
Surprisingly.. Ford are producing some decent vehicles at the moment. Their biggest challenge will now be from the cost structures of the government sponsored auto-makers.
When the figures come out I expect to see Ford's growth came from eating into the marketshare of everyone else.
~splat
scone wrote:
Most people are "scumbags" . "scumbags" = duplicitous with compensating self-delusion = wisdom = "morals". It's the formula for human happiness. Most people are happy.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125725014385125105.html
Note to self: Consider taking a language course.
What market?
western Europe, US their primary markets are in a L shaped recovery.
scone wrote:
humility shows a lack of self-delusions. It would NOT be wise. Therefore, most people NEVER show humility.
While we're (at least partially) on topic, can someone please explain to me why Ford hasn't taken the Lincoln nameplate back behind the shed and put it out of its misery yet?
For Glod's sake, the line has 7 different vehicles (trivia question: name 4 of them!) and yet total sales - of all 7 combined! - are less than 66,000 so far in 2009. That's less than the Econoline van has sold all by itself ... hell, I didn't even know Ford still made the Econoline!
I especially love this line from the sales chart: (sales # are 10/09, 10/08, % change)
Mark LT 1 379 -99.7
Alright, who bought the only Mark LT sold in all of America last month? Any budding investigative journalists out there?
Scone-
Yea..ok.... I'm not the one tossing around labels. Give it a rest already.
Ciao
MS
Quick Poll
Will buffet be remembered as the great bottom caller or the great bag holder?
splat wrote:
See: Comment by black dog from thread 'Ford: U.S. Oct. sales rise 2.6%'
I just realized that is true. Automakers are going to have to produce cars that people want,...instead of trying to convince people that what people want is what they are making.
Mook wrote:
They discontinued the Mark LT for 2009, so that must have been a stray one.
He will be remembered as of the
Ford's press release confuses me. They claim October to be up 21% from September sales, but September sales were reported as 114,655, only a 15% increase.
Tim waiting for 2012 wrote:
Did Buffet call a bottom today? I can't find anything.
How do the Ford sales for October compare to last month? Looks like they cherry picked the best headline to me...
Mook wrote:
Do they still have separate Lincoln/Mercury dealers? If not, then it's NBD. On the other hand, my Dad told me that Studebaker kept Packard around while it was killing innovative models like the Avanti, and this sort of thing hastened its demise.
Yea..ok.... I'm not the one tossing around labels.
"Silly" isn't a label then? Gosh, I never knew that.
But there is a point behind all this. Because people are imperfect and can't see the future clearly, and are not likely to change, it's probable that we'll see more disasters like this one in the future. And everyone will be a part of that. I don't think it's avoidable no matter how much econ one reads. It's just human nature to pursue short-term perceived self-interest, rather than long-term true self-interest. So I'm expecting several more nasty recessions in my lifetime.
cinco-lots of stand alone lincoln dealers..usually integrated with Jaguar, Mazda, Land Rover under same rooftop..
example...
Alvarez Jaguar Lincoln Mercury - Riverside area Lincoln Mercury Jaguar dealer in Riverside California. Ontario Jaguar Lincoln Mercury parts dealer. Anaheim Jaguar Lincoln Mercury dealer cars parts, Laguna Beach Jaguar Lincoln Mercury dealer cars parts, Ir
Ford is both a brand and a company.
You are confusing all the brands that are under the Ford Motor Company umbrella with Ford-branded vehicles (which is only one of the brands under the Ford Motor Company umbrella).
Notice the difference when you go to Ford Motor Company: Cars, Trucks, SUVs, Hybrids, Parts - Ford and Ford - Cars, SUVs, Trucks & Crossovers | Ford Vehicles
DJIA rocketed up in the last 20 min., but volumes still low. I guess
saw it as a good opportunity to pump while nobody was looking-
scone wrote:
Are people arguing with you about THIS? This is like saying that bears poop in the woods.
THE BACKWARDS CHECK MARK RECOVERY IN REVENUES
THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST » » THE BACKWARDS CHECK MARK RECOVERY IN REVENUES
Buffett will be remembered for not flaunting his paper wealth.
Buy and hold loudly. Sell quietly. Leverage your myth. Grab that bailout.
Not being able to live a massively over extended lifestyle hurts the majority of BMW buyers. The 135i is REALLY nice BTW.
~splat
scone wrote:
For your average person, it all looked like a fountain of free money. However, there were a number of people without formal training who were very suspicious. Regular people, some of whom had seen the TX bust of the 1980s, or the CA bust of the 1990s.
The people who should have known that I have an issue with fall into several groups. 1. Regulators. If you aren't looking for problems which can cause the amount of damage the housing and credit bubble did, what exactly was the purpose of regulation in 2003-2007? 2. If you were a risk manager, risk analyst, or similar role, why didn't your models include little foreseeable problems like home prices levelling out? Going down? Decreased availability of refinancing? 3. High level political staffers. This may sound like an odd group. However, many of them are well versed in economics and/or finance. It is usually a staffer or constituent that alerts a politician to big potential problems.
Tim waiting for 2012 wrote:
Neither. He will make money in the long run based on shifts from highway to rail transport.
at ___ market share ~ US SAAR
10% ~ 15.89mn
15% ~ 10.59mn
20% ~ 7.94mn
Ford has around 16% I think (number is more volatile than it used to be), so that would make for ~ 9.94mn US SAAR auto sales
anything less than 12mn represents a depletion of shadow inventory, and the prior decade of 15-17mn US SAAR auto sales represented a surge in shadow inventory
Great answers for the quick poll.
Best name for gold miner goes to" I-AM GOLD"
the avg. repair order for service dept. at bmw dealer is $491....
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Hmmml.... haven't looked at a Ford since I switched to Mazdas in the mid-'90s. I guess this may be the result of those dealer agreements that everyone was talking about last Fall. I hope Ford doesn't need to file BK to get out from under them-
some investor guy wrote:
Regulators are no longer working for "the people" because NOBODY (Edit: except the peasants) believes in that crap anymore.
NOT the sharpest tools in the shed. The Smart people are on the scam side, where they should be.
See #1.
4 years free servicing + warranty is pretty good
With BMW service costs you wouldn't want to still have it at the end of that time.
~splat
Oxtail, fwiw I said 2.61% ± 0.3% Q3 GDP and said any undershot on my part would be a direct subtraction from Q4 (either through govt spending, or net exports). I'm no god, and it was an educated armchair guess. At 3.5% they will have huge downward revisions because inventory added 0.9% when it certainly should have subtracted. Another 2 months before the numbers actually come in, so it's best to relax in anticipation
lawyer liz
left post beneath the pig and another thought underage porn thats a big no no.
threetorchs left post for you also, should read never instead of ever.get rid of anything on your computer,the only way is to smash the hard drive. and thats the only way i know of.
Boy, if Buffett is able to extract bonus wealth from private ownership of an entire railroad he had no part in designing, building, or operating history won't rhyme but it will be farce.
scone wrote:
Often disagree with scone, on this one I am in violent agreement with her
The Ford UAW workers are currently voting on a new labor contract with Ford that is exactly the same as the labor contract agreed to by GM and Chrysler UAW workers. Current voting tallies show that it has an approximately 0% chance of passing.
If you wanted a real-world example of the conflict of interest created when the UAW was given ownership stakes in GM and Chrysler, this is it. They are putting Ford at a competitive disadvantage.
Incidentally, Canadian workers are agreeing to the new contract - I would expect that they think this is a way to get Ford to build more cars there.
Splat
Those free services from BMW are very stingy. Who changes their oil after 7500 miles and their transmission fluid once over 4 years?
oxtail
i think golden sacks said 2.17 or something like that,we'll see wont we.
SIG
Agreed, these people "should have known, and could have known." But if you remember those go-go days, anybody who said "this gravy train is bullshit" was marginalized and silenced. How many people are going to resign their jobs and risk not getting another, to buck the groupthink? Most people are going to feed their families first, and go along with their social group, rather than risk getting shit on. Does that make them evil, or just normal, flawed human beings? I'm not saying they did right, I'm just saying I don't think I would have acted any better if I were in their shoes, knowing what they knew at the time, under their pressures.
IMO, if you really want a political and economic system that's bulletproofed against ordinary human screwups, it's going to be a long, difficult project. I can't imagine any system that some group of people couldn't destroy, given sufficient time.
I think GS had 2.7% the same night I picked mine, but they posted first
+3% +2% blah blah
Japan had positive years (!) in the 90's look at them now.
I think every recession has had 1 quarter of positive growth during it. It's only natural that one of the longest in history would have the same even without government intervention
scone wrote:
You are right. How many people are going to say the Weapons of Mass Delusion were BS? How many people on here are still "wise enough" to believe they did exist. How many people still think we can "win" the war on ___________ (fill in the blank).
(Edit:) How many people think we can simulate our way to prosperity.
Self-delusion and duplicity make the world go round.
Mook wrote:
I actually hope that Ford can fix Lincoln. They used to make nice cars. They just need to fire the idiot who thought it would be a good idea to make a front-wheel drive Lincoln, and go back to making cars that people want when they look at Lincoln.
Why should it be the same? Ford workers have supposedly produced better cars, or was that all the financiers' work?
Japan had a 1.4% annual gdp growth rate in the 1990s
Tim waiting for 2012 wrote:
On what time scale?
I actually think choo-choos have a future in this country, as long as they stay with freight and don't try to get back into the passenger business.
GDP is a measurement of spending. It ignores the costs of spending (the added debt, currency purchasing power, etc).
We're getting poorer. No ifs, ands or buts.
Ford's press release confuses me. They claim October to be up 21% from September sales, but September sales were reported as 114,655, only a 15% increase.
I think I can answer my own question...
Ford claims credit for 4,437 Volvos as well, bringing the total to 136,920. The September number that I kept track of (114,655) must not have included any Volvos. It's interesting that their headline number excludes Volvos but their comparison stats include them.
..NOT the sharpest tools in the shed. The Smart people are on the scam side, where they should be.
I know of one ceo of HELOC division of big 19; she had boatloads of risk people, but she made her millions in fees selling HELOC contracts. When the finally the SHTF and the bank wrote off 1$B in late 2008, she quietly left the bank and joined another smaller bag soon after, richer by a scores of millions and awards . The bank had at least 100 risk and credit personnel actively involved in managing risk. But the scam flourished anyway, its the fees that swayed everybody and made millions for the scamsters. Unless we have claw back provisions, this will continue.
Ford sold 189,515 units in 2007 vs. 132,483 in 2009, so 30% lower than '07.
Ho Hum...$1085...........Happy Birthday Old Yella
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
This recession is so long and the y-o-y comparison so low that 2 quarters are likely. We'll still be in "a" recession end of 2010 but TPTB will have successfully diverted the issue to one of semantics.
re Warren Buffet - time frame is next 10 years.
Tim waiting for 2012 wrote:
Respectable performance this year as well. Wish I had more shares.
Destroying a hard drive is not necessary, and a complete reformat and OS reinstall isn't always necessary either but it is often a simple way to deal with the problem. I would do this if I were you.
The problem with "deleting" data is that deleting just frees up the space for use later on, not actually removing the data.
There are programs that will write over all of the unused portions of the drive, which actually removes the data since it is overwritten with new data. I would probably do the reformat and OS reinstall but this is a decent option as well, but would do a good spyware and virus scan first.
FWIW, I do a reformat and reinstall when I get rid of old computers, but I don't have much sensitive information on mine. If I had financial information or business information, I would pull the hard drive after a reformat and drill it.
Interesting aside, local FBI found a laptop connected to a homicide a few years back and recovered images of the crime scene. The kicker is the laptop had been burned in a BBQ pit, and thrown in a lake. My thought was wow, good recovery job, and then, what idiot photographs their crime scene and saves the photos?
Because ownership interest adds no incentive, just conflict of interest? Are you suggesting no one should be allowed to own the business they work at?
The UAW was not given anything. Their legal, negotiated, contracts were busted when the corporations just walked away from their obligations.
I think Buffett got a decent price. BNI makes good money every year.
Agree
UAW should have had their pensions tied to Gm/Chrysler stock options bonds years ago. That way the taxpayer would have not had to bailout a large company all at once.
yogi
GM's Ontario plants consistently took the top 3 assembly plants for quality in North America. The better quality Ford cars come out of Mexico because they don't worry about investing in new robots/equipment that may replace a union job. I know what you mean to say, but it's irrelevant in this context.
Ford has been steering into a bankruptcy glidepath for some time. They will either get a sweet deal, and maybe avoid bankruptcy, or they will go into bankruptcy and get a sweet deal then. It's the same reason why the union is not giving concessions, you don't want to give away cards you can play at bankruptcy. Ford had great timing combined with a lot of hard work, but there is fundamentally no way they can compete with the legacy debt and dealerships. Maybe the Ford Foundation shouldn't have spent so much money on right wing dictators during the golden years, who knows, hindsight is 20/20. Even GM is likely to re-enter bankruptcy and the current creditors would get 70 ¢ on the $ according to Altman I believe.
Freeware that cleans deleted files from your disk and makes them undetectable:
Eraser
For those in doubt here you go in a nut shell.......
Gold Jumps on India's 200-Tonne IMF Purchase, London Sees "Sea Change" in Market - Buy Gold Online with the Bullion Vault - GoldSeek.com
"I think it was very significant that Paul Mercier, a senior central banker [from the European Central Bank] said official holders overall will no longer be net sellers of gold," said UBS analyst John Reade today, summing up the London Bullion Market Association's 2009 conference here in Edinburgh.
Angy Saver
But was BNI worth paying 20 times earnings for?
Tim waiting for 2012 wrote:
On that time scale, I think he'll be remembered as someone who did well, but not spectacularly. His holdings are too big now to grow at a massive rate, but he'll probably hit a few more balls out of the park, and probably take some losses on similar size deals. Even if he doesn't do that well from now on, he'll still be remembered for his impressive record.
I posted earlier today, "Gold is in a short squeeze. I'll exit at 1084 through 1094, on 1/2 the short term trading position taken at 990-95."
Gold is at 1085+. I'm gone on part, and waiting for the rest, and will be out of 1/2 the position at or before the close today. Bingo!
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
It would be silly for them NOT to go into BK. If everybody else has had their debt wiped out, Ford can't compete paying interest on pre-bubble accumulated debt. Wipe out the debt, and start from a clean slate.
Ford has been steering into a bankruptcy glidepath for some time. - EHP
Agreed. Although I don't understand why Germany seems to be doing better, with their car plants and unions, than the USA?
scone wrote:
For the exact same reason German trains and Italian trains are so different. We're Italy. Germany is Germany.
Rob Dawg
I don't see Q4 being positive. The GDP workhorses of Net Exports and Government spending will very likely decline on net (remember state and local governments), and private fixed investment has been tracking net exports. Inventory is stabilized, but everyone seems content with a new normal of lower inventory. With contracting credit, it makes sense. The other components aren't ready to shoulder the burden. Q1Y2010 will be a bloodbath unless they formally start planning a new stimpack within the month, and then fast track it -- not going to happen in the current political environment, no crisis, no crisis-prevention
"How many people think we can simulate our way to prosperity."
I think you are on to something there, why stimulate the economy when you can simulate it.
Saddam sure made people think he had WMD, and I have wondered if he was delusional himself and believed he did or he was playing the punch the tar baby role.
If you were tasked with creating 1000 pounds of nasty compound X and only made 1 pound, would you admit it to Saddam, or put on a nasty demonstration with what you had to "prove" you had 1000 pounds?
Germany has socialized medicine and pensions so the state pays for the exploding medical and pension costs of the German car companies' employees. Also the unions over there have a much more cooperative relationship with the company.
What's their productivity compared to a US auto-worker ? I thought it was significantly higher but I can't find any metrics to back-up that claim, perhaps it's Deutsch auto-propaganda
~splat
I remember reading an article from Spiegel earlier this year about how 2010 is going to be a disaster for German carmakers because of their superC4C program there. Was that just sensationalism or was there something substantial there?
I see Warren Buffet over the next ten years as a captain who goes down with the ship sitting in the crows nest he will be able to stay above water for some time. You have to say that 30% or so of the US population will never really recover from this recession
scone wrote:
the workers are recorded as only working part-time and the German government pays a substantial portion of the difference between full-time, but in reality they are working full time and the employers were collecting subsidies. Election was on so it continued. Now with the Center-Right government, Merkel is up the creek to cut taxes and the deficit. That's a small part of it anyhow
In general though, corporate-union relations are completely different between the 2 countries.
Should be fun with German banking exposure to CMBS and ship loans. All the dangers we warned Werner about
Local flu update (NJ)-
My kid goes to a local private school. Of the 140 students about 22 are out. One preschooler has confirmed H1N1. My kid is on antibiotics with high temperature since Saturday. I don't understand why the schools are still open.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Well, at least the German banks stopped speculating on Hollywood Movies...
RE Bear
My understanding is that school 's lose funding every quarter if they close or kids call in sick.
Of course my point is that it's the BK game that gives GM and Chrysler a competitive edge, nothing to do with who owns what. I was responding to Chicago dude above.
The twist with GM is that Obama appeared to be pro-union. Most of the time in history BK has worked to bust unions. It's a game of chicken, and management/ownership can usually live fine for years sitting idle. I've said all along Ford can't keep up without a miracle.
Tim waiting for 2012 wrote:
Yup. Perverse incentive. Who runs the schools? Check.
the workers are recorded as only working part-time and the German government pays a substantial portion of the difference between full-time, but in reality they are working full time and the employers were collecting subsidies. - EHP
Sound of jaw dropping. Kind of a permanent bailout there. Do governments subsidize car industries just on economic grounds, or because the skills have military applications?
Breaking: Chrysler U.S. Oct sales drop 30.4% to 65,803 units
scone wrote:
Would you accept "both" as an answer?
sm_landlord wrote:
Strategic Manufacturing Reserve.
evil
i think you are right,i knew that there was a 2 and a 7 in theirs
ox-
In a way there is a constant C4C in Germany. They have quite the inspection process for older vehicles. It's for road safety although since the autobahn's are so clogged with traffic now I don't see it being the same as it's original intention.
See the section on "dekra" regarding auto's.
Technischer Überwachungsverein - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Ciao
MS
Only reason I know that is that I cut school 1/3 of the year and I was yelled at for costing the school money.
MS +1
they used to have the same thing in Japan. Keeping old cars costs thousands in fees. I think they still might have it
scone
not just automakers, it's a general program. Kurzarbeit Global Economy Matters: What Is The Real Level Of Unemployment In Germany And Japan? IMF has commented on it as a production subsidy instead of welfare
for himself and early momentum builders.
---OK I'll buy it now.
sm_landlord
i want steam trains.
Pandemic Flu: The schools will not close. The knock on effect to the economy will be devastating. The mortality rate is tolerable as this pandemic is mild. Illness alone does not equate to societally destructive mortality rate of H5N1, 60% plus of those who are infected.
You Vill Vork for d'a Squid! This ain't duck and cover.
Keep your eyes open, however, for round two of this pandemic flu. The smart people are watching now and again for serious impacts of the next recombination. Will it arrive? Does day follow night? Nature has no vested interest in outcomes; they just happen. That will be the doozie. Meanwhile, if you don't have kids under age 35, you're okay. Under that, rug rats are at the highest risk, and then primary school kids.
So we have Zombie banks.. I guess now with Chrysler we have a Zombie car company too !
33% drop in sales (!!) they need to change their marketing slogan from "We're not dead yet" to "We're still twitchin'"
~splat
Oxtail
I accidentally hit discard. Here goes quick repost.
Germany was the original C4C country, their program was the largest too. Auto production is hugely important. From manufacturing all the way up to HQ service sector
Daimler, BMW, Opel, Porsche, Volkswagen, Audi ... all from a country of 60mn Wessies and 20mn Ossies
We will see how the lead balloon flies in 2010 for Germany
CaptainMorgan wrote:
The kind that are doing it for emotional or psychological reasons and not the kind of who just do a job discretely and disappear in the night.
Mythbusters proved a lead balloon can fly so we will need a new analogy
~splat
Chrysler hasn't been a car manufacturer for years. That was just a private equity bailout. The sooner it is shutdown, the healthier auto production in NA will be
Ah, I didn't see that Buffet BNSF purchase until now.
That's a good move especially IF the Government starts paying for rail-infrastructure projects over the next decade; which they are expected to do for “green reasons” and (of course) jobs jobs jobs. This could include electrification of high capacity routes coupled with an upgraded nationwide electrical distribution system with new nuke plants. BNSF has its LA to Chicago "transcontinental" route which would be a good “candidate” for a project like this. BNSF is probably best purchase of the big 5 US railroads.
captainmorgan
what do you mean "drill it" ?
silver up almost a dollar in the last 6 hours!? am i reading that graph right
Kitco Silver
now where did i bury those coins again...7 paces left of the birdbath behind the garden hmmm
hi ho silver....away
But can a derivativable fly?
Buffet will do alright with this one.
Rail will benefit as a cheaper alternative to long-haul trucking for "non-time sensitive" materials.
Which will be almost all materials, pretty soon! If time is money, we are all about to have a lot more time on our hands, and a lot less money in our pockets.
Trucks will evolve to handle mostly the "last-mile" trips.
Rail- When it absolutely, positively doesn't really have to be there any time in particular.
mock turtle wrote:
The gray mare is just a shadowy form that provides some people with the haunting feeling of saving wealth - JD (would've said it)
@ EHP - thanks, I've bookmarked it.
Would you accept "both" as an answer? - SL
IIRC, the justification for agricultural subsidies and the interstate highway system all turned on military need. Which doesn't make much sense to me, if the whole system has an imported "critical path" item-- oil.
gabyjan wrote:
Shades of London's Black Fog.
Which version do you want? The coal fired or petroleum fired steam trains?
Rail lines are expensive to maintain
Two words Warren "Clayton Homes"
CNN breaking news alert: "Chrysler says October vehicle sales fell 30% from a year ago, a little stronger than expectations."
stronger than expectartions!
Tim wf 2012,
That makes sence. Thanks.
At least two teachers are expecting. I don't know how they feel about this.
steam trains !! A return to the golden age of rail !!
~splat
threetorches wrote:
Not as true as it used to be. BNSF is actually leader in guaranteed time delivery of containers for some very large truck shippers like UPS. The problem with railroads is their limited capacity for moving freight at different speeds. Coal and containers don't mix very well. Neither do passenger trains for the same reasons.
The expectation was they'd sell nothing
~splat
That's why I love this board. I learn so much about stuff I never thought about before. Appreciate all the info you guys post on here every day.
IMO
Silver will lag far behind
. It will be used to barter and trade with and not necessarily a storage or wealth like Gold. Occasionally you will hear someone brag they have a "shinny" piece. That said silver coins for Christmas 
!
http://i220.photobucket.com/albums/dd87/actuellecowgirl/AhJeezNotThisShitAgain1.jpg
threetorches wrote:
Yeah, "Just in Time" doesn't have to mean "Right this Minute", as Fedex would have you believe.
I'm looking forward to reading an analysis of how the "Just in Time" fad worked out in this depression.
Maybe Dryfly will write a book someday.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Nuclure steam trains. With a reactor IN the locomotive. High speed ones. What could go wrong?
I'd be interested to know if anyone thinks the rising PMs may be related to contracting USD liquidity.
Huge supply of non-prepaid treasuries coming, banks sitting on reserves... Is the USD increasing on 'scarcity'?
does anybody have knowledge of or experience with a self directed IRA ?
Terry
Come on, they have a lock on the fridge in the glove box market. That's worth an extra $5,000 in maintenance per year. They poached those executives from a real estate marketing firm or something. There was a time when nobody knew granite counter tops were worth more than a new roof, and the Chrysler execs are the kinds of people who unlock that pricing power
Rob Dawg wrote:
Nuclear.
Edit: Darn, NaRM beat me to it.
Tim waiting for 2012 wrote:
Compared to highway? If it were not for Fed and State subsidy of roadway, I do not think that would be the case.
Tim-
% wise I have to disagree.....look at the paper products today. GLD up 2.1X% SLV 4.2X%
Ciao
MS
What happens if China blows up:
10 Ways A China Blow-Up Will Slam America
The other difficult part about warning others of the doom-- you don't know which doom will flare up. At any given point there are N-possible dooms, but only some will actually come to pass. Which doom do you warn about, and/or hedge against, given limited time and resources? And not wanting to look like an idiot saying "the sky is falling" over every little thing, given that most of the dooms will die on the vine. I can't see how this is solvable. Thank God I'm not an economist.
I mean get out the power drill or drill press and drill a few holes in it, through the platters.
One common data recovery tactic is to physically remove the hard drive platters and install into a functioning drive, and this ensures that even if great efforts are taken, the drive is unrecoverable data wise. Yes, smashing the platters with a hammer works, but requires a pretty good beating to get to them and do enough damage.
It's an extreme move, but depending on what data you have, might make sense.
Note I just reformat and reinstall the OS and call it done, but I'm not running a business or have financial information on my hard drive.
sm land
Atomic Train - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Talked to a bullion brahmin with a retail store, and he told me the small people are sellers and the substantial people are buyers.
He emphasized once again the palatable look of fear in people's faces, until they do what the ancients only longed about, alchemy. Paper turned into gold.
Transmutation transportation tickets are still accepted as passage, for flights to quality...
crazyv-
Yes....what specifically are you asking for though?
Ciao
MS
rob dawg
lets go for coal fired.hehehehehe
MS
I see but YOY Silver was at 20 bucks last March 08 and gold was at 1k. Look at where they are know. If we get runaway inflation I guess silver would be a better bet
shill wrote:
Historically this has to be the most bearish news for gold. Weren't these the same genius who sold most of their gold when it was trading close to its lows at around $300/oz
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
I know. Doesn't it boggle the mind that nothing for something seems like a great thing?
shill wrote:
Holy Hell. When is the last time the shiny stuff made a 3% move like this?
California sells $908 million in taxable bonds
Tic,Tic,Tic,Tic,Tic,
who is a reliable custodian and how does one make sure they don't rip you off.?
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
YouTube - Supertrain Opening Credits
With millions of UE Americans maybe we should bring back the pony
express. or bicycles el camino's whatever the hell you wanted to ride in. 
Tim waiting for 2012 wrote:
Have you seen this one:
Nuclear aircraft - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
It would have worked, except that the crew could only fly a single six month or one year mission before they hit their lifetime exposure limit to radiation.
Blackhalo wrote:
VERY true. And any TRUE libertarian should be worshipping rail transportation in the US. The US and Canada have the only large scale private railroads that pay for their own infrastructure and pay dividends and interest WHILE completing with other modes of transportation which are completely subsidized.
I always (internally) laugh at the ignorance of pretend libertarians when the talk about transportation and all they can see is how EVIL Amtrak is. Amtrak is a fly on the butt of the transportation elephant. And private railroads are they only ones that make REAL libertarian profits.
Blackhalo wrote:
Which subsidies are those? Cite? Source? FHWA HM or HF series documents?
REBear wrote:
Mine just broke his fever this morning, and is also on antibiotics. How a doctor and determine a child needs antibiotics after a cursory 30 second glance in his ears and throat escapes me. Medicine by statistical probability, I've been told.
Atomic Train would have worked too but we need all the radioactive material for MRI's for the elderly.
sm_landlord wrote:
and they would have radiated everybody below the flight. There was no way to properly shield the reactor and have it light enough to put on a plane.
I agree with this 100%. Rail can be very efficient.
I really just mean the time arbitrage between a dedicated truck hauling ass on the interstate, and a freight train chugging along at a pre-determined speed. With more time and less money, many more folks will begin to choose saving money over saving time.
Coal don't spoil, grain keeps just fine, and ultimately passengers, too, if you get right down to it. (Heresy!)
Note: I am not talking about BS high-speed titanium-plated death-rocket bullet train BS ... just slow, cheap, comfortable Orient Express kind of passenger travel. With food, and internet access, and maybe a mysterious murder, if you are lucky!
no that was the Brits.....Gordon Browne to be specific...
crazyv-
Never had a problem with Schwab (Execution sucks though.......) in over 18 years with an IRA....having said that I can't really speak to safety of any custodial account anywhere as where we are headed we've never been.
Ciao
MS
Hopium will take a hit today.
O easily carried virginia in 2008 - the first time it went for dem in a presidential election since 1964. A lot of independent voters and in the past 10 years went from a red to purple state. McDonnell - the republican - gonna win and it won't be close. McDonnell has been hammering Deeds incessantly on spending and taxes.
Might provide a bit of backbone to the R's when the next stimulus raises its head.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Are you kidding?
Attributing Federal Highway Revenues to Each State
are we talking about the same thing- in a self directed IRA you get to hold many of the things that the IRS allows e.g. promissory notes mortgages, rental property etc instead of just mutual funds and stocks and bonds.
gabyjan wrote:
How many cities OWN three steam locomotives (two of which still operate; third is being restored)?
the once-grand roundhouse is home to hidden treasure -- three oil-fired steam locomotives owned by Portland taxpayers and maintained by volunteers. Two of the engines are in working order and among the six largest steam engines operating in the world.
SP 4449: Handsome dude!
SPS 700: "He's so pretty, so pretty"
I think the danger of swine flu is from secondary bacterial infections, so probably playing it safe with the kids
threetorches wrote:
Don't forget, the Europeans already have all these BS trains. And, the eastern US is as densly populated as europe. With passenger trains, it's just another socialist scam, BUT all passenger transportation is a scam on the taxpayer, so trains should't be excluded simply because they aren't part of the scam now.
Blackhalo
AMTRAK - defense rests
BNSF might get the highspeed rail stimulus for Portland - Seattle - Vancouver rail because they are the only game in town for that link
threetorches wrote:
Grain is a pain in the ass, at least in Canada. A thousand little elevators, each wanting only a few cars, but spaced apart hundreds of miles geographically. Due to the Canadian duopoly, rail companies extract huge rents from farmers in Canada. I don't know about the USA, but the nature of grain by rail can't be a whole lot different.
Blackhalo wrote:
Whereinthehell do you think those "revenues" come from? Those aren't subsidies. In fact they are less than what are collected as use fees. You said subsidies.
Tim waiting for 2012 wrote:
Chump change. Not much of a defense.
crazyv-
perhaps not.....I don't have anything other than the latter in mine. Sorry for the confusion.
Ciao
MS
Came by to drop an OT I have been thinking about a lot lately:
If people of limited means were able to legally trade their vegetables for say, a computer, then they would be able to partially exit the the fraudulent credit based dollar economy.
Barter can be organized by commodity where the commodity becomes the monetary unit within the community. Also barter classifieds organized by item, once sufficiently large, could easily match haves and wants.
Barter is the matching of haves and wants. Things can be easily paired online, eliminating the dollar in the transaction. Eliminating the dollar excludes dollar based credit from that part of the economy and excludes the evil bastards that engineered the current collapse. Also, when a need is met without cash it leaves more cash to save.
You don't have to look far to find a big example of a barter market. Currencies are a barter market. For example, exchange rates are expressed in units of another currency, "EUR/USD" means euros in dollars. Currently a euro costs about $1.47. You could have an "Apples/Oranges" barter pair where apples would be expressed in oranges. Perhaps, it takes two apples to equal an orange. The exchange rate expressed in oranges would be .5 or half an orange equals one apple. Imagine suggested barter pairs instead of asking prices on a craigslist or ebay type matching system. Imagine a kelly blue book type repository of common accepted values for barter pairs like "Toaster/Microwave"
A marketplace such as this would grow beyond any of our wildest imaginings. Look at e-bay, loook at craigslist. What these companies did was create a marketplace.
America, Fkkk yeah!
Rob Dawg wrote:
Gimmy a break here. This isn't even worth typing. Who do you thing builds all these roads. And why? The evil government.
noob goldberg wrote:
Nice to know our airline, telecommunications, and banking sectors have good company in government chosen oligopolyland
sm_landlord wrote:
Wind turbines! perpetual motion machines. speed of train turns turbine, turbine provides speed.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Gasoline tax as a % of revenue, is disproportionate to highway usage and road wear. Trucking gets a substantial "free ride" on US highways.
yajig said
"The gray mare is just a shadowy form that provides some people with the haunting feeling of saving wealth"
sometimes when climbing up a down escalator its hard to know if you are even standing still...let alone making any progress
but i do know this
not now, not maybe even today or this week...but to a near certainty someday soon...the dollar is toast
and id rather take my chances with the BRICC* currencies and / or PMs as part of a strategy of diversification (not all in..never)
rather than hold all savings and investments dollar denominated
our leaders have effed the dollar and not by accident
(my nomenclature the second C is for oh canada)
with moves in PM's and Oil today I gather things are going to get a bit interesting very soon. Just a hunch but something is going on under the radar at the moment....not just the daily pressures that we all know and love...this feels like something different to me.
Ciao
MS
BlackHalo
Okay I meant to say Greyhound v. Amtrak . Who makes money????
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
An unworthy cop out. You aren't even going to try because you know you are on the losing end of this issue. You do not get break until you substantiate or retract the claim. It is a pernicious evil to let memes like subsidized roads gain a foothold.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
I wasn't complaining; for all I know he had a raging ear infection. It was, however, the absolute speed of that visit. I have never been in and out of any doctor's office in 3 minutes before. It was awesome.
Partially off topic,
Consumption hit a post war record high as a % of GDP in the 3Q, that is not a healthy development over the long term, meanwhile investments share was almost unchanged near record (as in off the charts) low as a share of GDP. I think some of you might find this of interest.
The Shape of GDP
Rob Dawg wrote:
Tell me about the US petroleum reserves again...
MS
What do you think it might be the 10 year is acting funny too. Volume really tailed off.
The key to keeping passengers happy is the quality of their environment. The airlines aren't setup to keep you on a runway for hours on end, but spend a day or two straight on a cruise ship without getting off and it's a different story. If you complain on the cruise ship, you won't be happy on any mode of transport.
Many of the businesses I have worked for and with over inflate their sense of urgency when shipping, and much of it comes down to making up for bad planning and scheduling in the first place.
Give me a nice restaurant, a bar car, a comfy bed and it sounds better than taking a plane.
Blackhalo wrote:
If you are saying that the allocation of attributable expense among different classes of users is imperfect then fine but you said subsidy.
But was BNI worth paying 20 times earnings for?
Tim, 2012,
The 20 p/e is based on the past, investments are based on the future.
Here's my quick take. It's a $34 billion dollar deal. BNI will earn ~ $2 billion/year less opportunity costs (or borrowing costs) of the money which are low. The deal is a money maker, but I don't foresee a huge rate of return. Certainly not the 21% that BRKA has had over the past 40 years. Closer to the 7% return seen over the past decade. More than anything, I think it highlights the grim future of making money from money - something that is no longer automatic.
One more point. If Buffet buysBNI by issuing BRKA stock, it tells you something about Buffett's views of future returns - LOW!
tim
i googled warren buffett clayton homes,
now im going to have to ask my sister why she hates warren,she worked for wrangler/vf ? does he eat companies?
Use the Force MS
Rising because the denominator is falling faster than numerator. Is that what you meant?
I wish I could conceive of that line as discernible. I imagine that an ill-fed, underpaid, disenfranchised workforce facing a future of poverty level wages if any, chronic under-supply of housing and lack of educational opportunity in a wealthy country, makes a miserable fighting force.
Now add in a nasty devaluation of their promised pension through currency manipulation...
Can Warren run all those robots at his age?
I'd rather not experiment with whether we can outsource all manufacturing and hope someone will sell us good jet fighter drones, or whether we can rely on slave labor at home like you know who.
splat wrote:
I doubt it.
noob goldberg wrote:
they get paid per procedure. If they can have a shorter visit with you, they can allow more time for the appointment where they have to inform someone they are diagnosed with breast cancer
How about the 1 year return?
1YearChg +7.40 +75.59%
Angry Saver
Good analysis but I don't think we will even see 7% I say half that based on demographics but I see the way you paint it as a fixed income play with upside to raw material price exposure.
Do you reckon the hoi ploy is completely perplexed and in over their pretty little heads, in regards to trying to figure out the dismal science?
One thing i've noticed is the usual Hollywood talking heads that are good for a quote about most everything, have been rendered speechless and/or bankrupt.
That is one of the risks with H1N1, is the possiblity that in some areas the demand on the local ability to deliver medical services will be completely swamped, which results in an immediate decline of quality of care (what is the spare ICU capacity in your area?)...
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Anybody heard from Werner lately?
Yeah, grain can be a pain, but in the US at least the "farmer's co-op" system helps reduce overhead. Farmers typically get the grain to a local depot from whence it moves by rail en masse to end users.
But if you are not particularly stressed for time, the train really can stop in every little piss-ant town all across the land. Just like they used to, before we all got in such a hurry. From the redwood forests, to the Gulf Stream waters, etc. etc.
And passengers who are not in any hurry can travel quite comfortably by rail, too. Aunt Sally will see me in Flo-ridy when I get there, and I have Go-To-Meeting.com when I need to see someone in a hurry about some high-falutin' business matter.
(Passenger air is so doomed, when lots of people have all the time in the world and very little money in their pockets.)
noob goldberg wrote:
Changing quickly the US, but slowly in Canada. The small grain elevators in the US and Canada were dependent on railroads in - what the industry calls - "loose car railroading". A few cars parked at each elevators. This is a money losing proposition for railroads. Way too much labor and lost-loaded-car time.
The US railroads are now giving bulk-train rates for trains of 50+ cars. This requires huge elevators, with the newer ones being able to load th train while moving - just like the big coal mines. The small guys are complaining, but the politicians are - of course - owned by the bigger fish so they (the peasants) have less clout.
Your Central Pacific railroad, only in the last 10 years was able to get out of the (famous) "Crows Nest" agreement which fixed grain rates moving over the Rockies from middle provinces at rates set in early 1900's (like 0.02 / ton-mile - I'm working from memory).
http://onni.jkl.fi/~lauri/kuvia/not_this_shit_again.jpeg
gaby
Not sure but WB said he regretted buying Clayton so he is probably wringing every loose cent from operations to recoup losses.
Wedding season in India starts in Feb. Inability of middle class to buy 10 tolas of gold could cause a stir. Indian government could be planning to control local gold price in an attempt to appease population.
nope, just that you have repeatedly asserted that the reserves (barrels in the ground) of the USA are the same as in the '70s and upon being shown that is not the case, you fall back (aka, cop out) to the R/P ratio...which actually makes my case, which at all times has been about the decline in production rates...
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Indeed. I'm avoiding rhetorical slams to them, because this is an exceptionally complex issue, involving reams of legislation and regulation. But it does boil down to the fact that the government is trying to manage the western duopoly, and failing.
Any further analysis would probably start with the Crow Rate, if you're really interested this issue. Email me privately if you're curious, and I'll send some info.
I see the Gold and Oil moves but gotta believe the printing press is still powerful enough to squash them at least one more time.
Rob Dawg wrote:
I guess nuclear fired is out of the question, huh?
REBear
Good point but I think the Rupee has been getting stronger right?
Rob Dawg wrote:
No need to even comment. You can live in your libertarian fantasyland all you like. Enjoy.
Nothing says billion dollar business empire like manufactured homes.
Someone must have spiked WB's sasparilla.
I understand that there something about consumption that makes some of us uncomfortable. But (a) to the extent we import more than we used and even if we had balanced trade would not this itself lead to higher consumption relative to GDP, (b) manufacturing is more efficient and requires less capital investment again skewing the consumption numbers (c) what we consume is less "hard" once again requiring less investment and may even be supported by activities that fall within the consumption category.
IMO its not the level of consumption that matters but rather how much of it is financed with debt.
crazyv
take their eldest as a good will gesture.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
That has decimated cattle production in British Columbia
Tim waiting for 2012 wrote:
Why?
There they are selling the Treasury to fund a weak dollar and a strong stock!
!0 year yield is down almost 10 points and 2 years is 5 points....in a single day...unusual!
Is it the last Bull BID to control the market???
energyecon wrote:
I'm Canadian. The words 'spare capacity' does not coexist with 'health care' in Canada.
threetorches
dont forget about piggy-backs
Rob Dawg wrote:
Yeah, I would call the interstate highway system a big fat subsidy. Not that we don't benifit as a nation from that, but a rose by any other name is still a rose.
Some people say Buffet got his head attached to an absolute zero DNA supercomputer and he needs the train lines to latch on to the entire country and suck its electrons dry.
Being old time Banker I remember the adage about never taking collateral that has to be fed
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Yeah, I bet it did. I think the railroad "negotiated" the expiration of the agreement in exchange for building a new tunnel under the Rockies someplace. It might be the longest tunnel in North America now. (again, working from memory). They spent a bundle on it. And, I think, all privately funded. CP is private. CN used to be a semi-government but I think it's private now too.
(Edit. They needed the tunnel to export coal out of your new port in Vancover. Which is a huge bulk export terminal. The tunnel was a pure engineering calculation. Tunnel cost - lifting a train X feet. Civil engineering at its best. )
Taking Mr. Market on that GM news.......
Go auto makers go!
noob goldberg
do you know if we're getting a discount from Glaxo Smith Cline because the vaccine ordered is 1 month behind schedule and at half the volumes promised? I have a feeling we're paying full price for vaccine that will be delivered after flu season judging by the government's silence on the problem
Re-animator training?
Interesting: Curious Meeting at Treasury Department « naked capitalism
"The Treasury invited a small group of bloggers for a “discussion” with senior officials on Monday. Initially, the meeting was to be background, which is a sort of journalistic “FYI but you can’t use it” but we were told at the meeting that we could discuss the meeting as long as remarks were not attributed to particular individuals.
None of us knew in advance how many attendees there would be; there were eight of us at a two-hour session, Interfluidity, Marginal Revolution, Kid Dynamite’s World, Across the Curve, Financial Armageddon, Accrued Interest, and Aleph (and of course, others may have been invited who had scheduling conflicts)"
That is really strange.
noob goldberg:
Mine was prescribed Tami flu after a minute.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Yeah, but they never gave back the land, did they?
rosethorn wrote:
Roast Beef to keep the bloggers from informing the masses and getting them riled up?
I don't think we will even see 7% I say half that based on demographics but I see the way you paint it as a fixed income play with upside to raw material price exposure.
Tim 2012,
It looks better than 3.5% to me. Initially, I thought it was partially a bet against a falling dollar, something Buffett forecasts. But after thinking about it, I think it is a bet on a falling dollar. A falling dollar will cause oil to rise and push cargo onto rails.
In any event, I'm quite certain it's not a 20%/ year investment. I'm also quite certain we will see the death of Buffett before we see the death of the dollar.
rosethorn wrote:
Mmmmm, roast beef.
Tim-
I intentionally left out the 10y move as I don't even pretend to know what is going on in that neck 'o' the woods. I know what it should say but the other moves are more relevant in my view. They can move the 10 y around despite the other things that "should" affect it.
Ciao
MS
Of course, if you live in one of the cities that tore out railroad beds to install roller-blading paths, you will just have to walk to Aunt Sally's in Flo-ridy.
Sorry.
noob goldberg wrote:
Finders keepers dude!!!
Do you reckon the hoi ploy is completely perplexed and in over their pretty little heads, in regards to trying to figure out the dismal science? - JD
I'm not sure anyone has it figured out, including economists. If there were one best system, or even several good systems which interacted well, we would not be having these problems. OTOH it's only been a few thousand years since the invention of complex societies with money, division of labor, etc. Maybe it takes 20,000 years to evolve something that is creative, yet stable.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
I hear a lot of noise, EHP, but nothing of substance as of yet. It's also outside of my network, so I'm not directly in that loop.
However, we may have a vote on the gun registry thing this afternoon, which would make the news tonight.
BBC NEWS | Europe | Panic in Ukraine over swine flu
Swine Flu in Poland | Krakow Post
(see the Slovakia and Bulgaria comments in article)
Afghanistan declares H1N1 emergency, shuts schools
| Reuters
Supervisors Declare Flu Emergency - Health News Story - KCRA Sacramento
City Declares Health Emergency Over H1N1 | Philly | 10/30/2009
Questioning the CDC 36,000 Deaths from Seasonal Flu Figure
CDC - Seasonal Influenza (Flu) - Weekly Report: Influenza Summary Update
Latest CDC stats - week 42 (previous 12 year range ILI % patient visits at 0.9%-1.3%, currently 8%)
noob goldberg wrote:
Is that a good thing, or a bad thing?
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
You made an assertion that POV road transportation is subsidized. This is not true. The FHWA has data going back to 1929 that absolutely track revenue and expenditures at all levels of government that disprove your assertion. It is contemptuous of the readers to act as if this is my fantasy.
Table 2007 HDF -
Highway Statistics 2007 -
FHWA
Cinco-X wrote:
It's a reality.
AS - Imports aren't telling me there will be any increases in demand any time soon
MS - Yeah its hard to trust any move
Do you think that the diagnosis was wrong? Training, knowledge, background, also understanding how much leeway they have. Wouldn't you respect a car mechanic who could diagnose your problem in a few seconds and didn't waste time on simple matters?
here's the real reason that Berkshire bought BNI
Baby Berkshire split may put shares in S&P 500 - MarketWatch
part of plan....
I have no idea how Ford is making money but I wish them all the luck in the world. Still, they kind of remind me of the Erie-Lackawanna Railroad circa 1971... in a dying industry, somehow still keeping their heads above water, but only one calamity away from going under.
For the EL, it was a flood.
jimportlandOR
you are lucky to have them. southern railroad(now the ns) used to run steam trains dont think they do it more. and that steam engine is gorgous.
funny thing when i was little i was scared to death of steam engines.
threetorches wrote:
Perhaps the biggest problem with railroads is that they can't deliver directly to many businesses. As such, union labor is required to load, unload, and then reload onto trucks for local delivery. Hence, it becomes more expensive to use the "more efficient" rails. Ironic, huh?
Warren knows that the Railroads are part of the FEMA camp transport system.
threetorches wrote:
Some light-rail is going back on some of those trail. It was a good "rail bank" idea, actually. If they didn't build a bike-trail, there'd be houses now. It's too bad they didn't rail-bank the railroads they closed in LA in the 50's and 60's. Much of the LA light rail is build under what at one time was rail-right-of-way (Pacific Electric) but was reused for highways or buildings.
sdtfs wrote:
Speaking for myself, I didn't question him. I took my boy home and started him on antibiotics. If I thought I could self-diagnose I wouldn't have taken him to the doctor's in the first place.
But it was still the fastest appointment I've ever had.
I'm not advocating its continuation, but just sharing that I had heard first hand about the resulting conversion of slaughterhouses.
As for public/private. They are public entities in my mind. CN has in its corporate charter that its HQ must be in Montreal, and the CN tower was built with the handover only being in relatively recent memory. CN and CP didn't pay a dime for their lands, they were given rail ROW and then massive tracts of lands to pay for building the network. They are effectively unregulated, and can get away with any kind of crash/spill. BC Rail was sold to CN rail in a scam of government/lobbyist/kickback corruption.
The best way to handle the conflicts of interest against a free/efficient/effective market is to separate infrastructure/networks from service providers/operators. Ultimately that's where we'll end up because the failings of the existing market structure keep coming up, and for historical reasons there should be no expectation that the current exploitative system should continue.
anyways, neat talking about Canadian railways. I'm logging off for a while
Teaching maths in 1970
A logger sells a truckload of timber for £100.
His cost of production is 4/5 of the price.
What is his profit?
Teaching Maths In 1980
A logger sells a truckload of timber for £100.
His cost of production is 80% of the price.
What is his profit?
Teaching Maths In 1990
A logger sells a truckload of timber for £100.
His cost of production is £80.
How much was his profit?
Teaching Maths In 2000
A logger sells a truckload of timber for £100.
His cost of production is £80 and his profit is £20.
Your assignment: Underline the number 20.
Teaching Maths In 2005
A logger cuts down a beautiful forest because he is selfish and inconsiderate and cares nothing for the habitat of animals or the preservation of our woodlands.
Your assignment: Discuss how the birds and squirrels might feel as the logger cut down their homes just for a measly profit of £20.
Teaching Maths In 2009.
A logger is arrested for trying to cut down a tree in case it may be offensive to Muslims or other religious
groups not consulted in the felling licence.
He is also fined £100 as his chainsaw is in breach of Health and Safety legislation as it deemed too dangerous and could cut something. He has used the chainsaw for over 20 years without incident however he does not have the correct certificate of competence and is therefore considered to be a recidivist and habitual criminal.
His DNA is sampled and his details circulated throughout all government agencies.
He protests and is taken to court and fined another £100 because he is such an easy target.
When he is released he returns to find Gypsies have cut down half his wood to build a camp on his land. He tries to throw them off but is arrested, prosecuted for harassing an ethnic minority, imprisoned and fined a further £100.
While he is in jail the Gypsies cut down the rest of his wood and sell it on the black market for £100 cash.
They also have a leaving barbecue of squirrel and pheasant and depart leaving behind several tonnes of rubbish and asbestos sheeting.
The forester on release is warned that failure to clear the fly tipped rubbish immediately at his own cost is an offence.
He complains and is arrested for environmental pollution, breach of the peace and invoiced £12,000 plus VAT for safe disposal costs by a regulated
government contractor.
Your assignment: How many times is the logger going to have to be arrested and fined before he realises that he is never going to make £20
profit by hard work, give up, sign onto the dole and live off the state for the rest of his life?
Teaching Maths In 2010
A logger doesn't sell a lorry load of timber because he can't get a loan to buy a new lorry because his bank has spent all his and their money on a derivative of securitised debt related to subprime mortgages in Alabama and lost the lot with only some government money left to pay a few million pound bonuses to their senior directors and the traders who made the biggest losses.
The logger struggles to pay the £1,200 road tax on his old lorry however, as it was built in the 1970 it no longer meets the emissions regulations and he is forced to scrap it.
Some Bulgarian loggers buy the lorry from the scrap merchant and put it back on the road.
They undercut everyone on price for haulage and send their cash back home, while claiming unemployment for themselves and their relatives.
If questioned they speak no English and it is easier to deport them at the government's expense.
Following their holiday back home they return to the UK with different names and fresh girls and start again.
The logger protests, is accused of being a bigoted racist and as his name is on the side of his old lorry he is forced to pay £1,500 registration fees as a gang master.
The Government borrows more money to pay more to the bankers as bonuses are not cheap.
The parliamentarians feel they are missing out and claim the difference on expenses and allowances.
You do the maths.
Blackhalo wrote:
It was intended for military purposes, but it's existence helped trigger the move away from the rails. FWIW, I believe that 2 out of every 5 miles of interstate highway needs to be straight enough to serve as a runway in wartime-
Perfection is a
I heard Afghanistan may get its first railroad. ---But things have been going so nicely with camels.
The question is not whether we'll ever find a perfect mechanism for allocating capital to transportation projects of any kind. Its what mechanism we use to make an imperfect decision. I vote for the vote. I guarantee you some will gain and some will lose whether a railroad is built or not.
I'm also pretty sure that no one is left who thinks that allowing anyone with financing to build a personal railroad between his vacation homes is the American way.
noob goldberg wrote:
Good reality or bad?
Cinco-X wrote:
NA!! Dude, that's like 50's stuff. When railroads were RETAIL transportation. Railroads are now wholesale. The trucks move containners from the business to terminals which are collected and moved on trains.
Railroads are still retail in bulk movements; coal, commodities, grain, etc.. But containners are where it's at now. BNSF leads in this, btw.
Mr Slippery
yes the YOY returns on silver are very nice too
in the future...who knows, nothings for sure
but i guess we are poised for take off
it might not be a straight line
powerful forces want to squash it, but viewed as an insurance policy where the premiums are not just a bunch of canceled checks at the end of the year
well alright
Poic +1 but WTF was that?