I'm just amazed that the NAR keeps complaining ... when the number of sales and commissions are above normal levels. They were so spoiled during the bubble that they don't realize this is a pretty decent year.
The key for the economy is a recovery in single family investment (and also multifamily investment). These will pickup once the number of excess housing units is worked down.
The key for the economy is a recovery in single family investment (and also multifamily investment).
Hrm.
.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
These will pickup once the number of excess housing units is worked down.
I understand the relationship between these two statements, but I'm lacking a firm understanding about how that is suppose to happen with falling wages and rising UE and rising BK and falling social safety nets...
And Brokers' commissions are slightly above average (2009 was a solid year for agents).
I never realized one could stretch the definition of "investment" to include outrageous fees paid to parasitic middlemen. How ... err ... enlightening.
One of the new local subdivisions dropped their prices from $90k to $70k, for probably about a 1400 sqft house. They must have sold a few, since there has recently been a few more framed, with guys working.
This is super low-end though, even for this neighborhood.
rsj: Honestly [student loans] really are forevah, evn more so than those darn diamonds.
the silence from higher-ed administrators with respect to student loan burdens is deafening. guess they're too busy raising tuition and raking in multi-million dollar salaries...
I haven't been reading this blog that long, but does CR ever take a vacation? Like several days without posting? I don't envy him the pressure of having to update this blog all the time.
In Phoenix Metro the best selling houses are $80,000. to $100,000. People want their tax credit but don't want any more debt than what the gov will help pay for. You can get a 3/2 rehabed, 1200 to 1400sq ft in a decent area for $100,000. now.
CR has probably installed T1 in his bankerdome just off the John Muir Trail running off geothermal energy near Devil's Postpile. He'll be posting even if only cockroaches are left to read the chart porn.
My plan is to be a "move down" buyer using the tax credit. Should cut the payments by 2/3rds.
You know how much house I can get here for how little now. We seem to be at 1998 prices.
Pay someone $1mn one year, and $999,999 the next and they will complain more than if they had been paid $1mn and just lost a dollar bill during the year. Not to mention a lot of people became realtors, or started websites aimed at self-serve, because it had been such a lucrative field so there is more competition for that decent year of money. It could also be more work with the agency-only model of mortgage origination, but non-agency was insignificant a decade ago so that's probably not a justified complaint -- especially given the relaxed attitude at agencies today compared to one decade ago. Maybe it's just the adjustment from a credit-flush lifestyle to the self-funded household model. The realtors I know of certainly make a point of having a car leased for 3 years which is intended to impress clients. Maybe it says more about how the government is spending money than it does about what realtors feel they need
The Federal government will just buy up the trillion dollar student loans outstanding and .monetize it. Those student loans for 150k won't look so bad when a 4year of college costs 350k
Citizen AllenM
Could you tell us the rough time line of events? The big holdup with HAMP seems to have been getting all the necessary documents in, and I'm wondering around when we might expect the peak of the approval bulge to pass, which could then be used to guesstimate how many modifications are approved.
EHP, I also get the impression that the commission dollars are not evenly distributed. For example, there's a two man team in my area who seem to have a lock on FHA financing bank REO's. They're selling 75 houses a month.
Oh, I have plenty left to work on- the 2nd on my rental is next, followed by the first.
So far underwater that I will pay only 20 cents on the dollar to clear, and then I want 3% on the first.
Should cut my monthly by 60%.
The credit cards are pretty low already- so I will sit on them unless I get laid off, if that happens I will get positively medieval on them.
So, go ahead and lay me off, I will crush my creditors!!
Where did all the condo oversupply come from, if multi-family Residential investment has been so low for so long? (Looking at the purple line on CR's chart.)
Investment in multi-family structures is down because of the 'credit freeze' but also they could be a bad investment as renters can get smoking deals on single family homes so why live in (or purchase) an apartment building and deal with the high turnover and vacancy rate problems...rental over supply gives renters more choices and better rental rates...
I ain't no lawyer- and if they disbarred every lawyer in AZ who ever walked away from a mortgage, there would be a shortage of lawyers- tons of them did it during the early 90s when the S&Ls went bust.
Of course the ethics bunch likes to scare you, but look at all the lawyers screwing the common man and say they are really held to a higher standard. Put it this way, I sometimes read the disciplinary reports, and they are mighty lenient with their own.
AllenM, yes I understand you will pay the full amount due, just with at a different rate and maturity date. I was just curious if there would be any ramifications with your employer since I understood that to be a government entity of some sort.
By "T gen" do you mean Translational Genomics Research Institute? If so, what was broken?
Today's coincident economic indicators only confirm what leading ones foretold already ~9 months ago. And the latter ones now foretell even stronger growth 9 months from the here and now. I hope nobody is foolish enough to bet on a renewed downturn here. Are there any bets out there when the last bear straw, the UE numbers will start turning around. My best gues is either December or January will be the definite turnaround.
MfO
Same maturity- 26 years left to run at the new 3.75% rate.
sportsfan wrote:
AllenM, yes I understand you will pay the full amount due, just with at a different rate and maturity date. I was just curious if there would be any ramifications with your employer since I understood that to be a government entity of some sort.
Uh, no ramifications. I can go broke and they wouldn't care. I can't tell you how much lunchroom advice I have given to folks getting divorced about bk- state employees here are poor.
Tgen is owed about 30 million from a gov contract that we are deadbeating on right now.
Mork
will you hang around this time or do you only talk to yourself? From the last time I responded, I'm only curious as to hear your reasoning on what happens next. LEI aren't enough because they have been increasing in divergence when they ought to have been narrowing
Um, the now $3 stock with tons of cash run by V.P.
Original provider, and holder of the bag- may have been securitized, but the primary was Bank Investment Co.
The details are very plain- I will post after paperwork is signed and returned.
Today's coincident economic indicators only confirm what leading ones foretold already ~9 months ago. And the latter ones now foretell even stronger growth 9 months from the here and now. I hope nobody is foolish enough to bet on a renewed downturn here. Are there any bets out there when the last bear straw, the UE numbers will start turning around. My best gues is either December or January will be the definite turnaround.
Then why is the Obama administration considering another round of stimulus?
Do your models compute why they think they need this package?
Hmmm?
Or are you just datadriving and praying the models work today?
btw, the latest twist in the GM TARP ordeal is sure to make YLSP go nuts. What's the deal with the $1.1B purchase of a Delphi parts unit, using a taxpayer loan, just sell it off?
G.M. said it received $1.7 billion last month from a escrow account financed by the Treasury Department to buy an interest in the reorganized Delphi, which spent four years mired in Chapter 11 protection before successfully exiting last month.
It received $1.1 billion to spend on its acquisition of Delphi’s global steering business, which G.M. has said it planned to sell.
"Stimulus" has become a bad word, like "tax". Why don't they just say they want to spend $700 billion on things the public wants and needs which the market is not providing (make-work jobs are not such a thing).
AllenM, thanks for the info. BTW, I had no plans to do business with that public entity, but I have been following the stories about the problems there. Some day there will opportunities there for the taking.
But then, as you say, "Someday this war's gonna end... "
I don't have a time clock on either of those events.
Where did all the condo oversupply come from, if multi-family Residential investment has been so low for so long? (Looking at the purple line on CR's chart.) **
In my co-ordinates, it's old people who can't handle the yard work anymore. There was a short supply here not long ago. Now they can't sell their houses to move into maintenance free places. It's especially hard on those folks and families who need to sell to move directly into assisted living facilities.
Here's a sobering sign that companies are robbing the future to pay for short-term profits: Over the past year, U.S. employment of scientists and engineers—the people who create the next generation of products and make the U.S. more competitive over the long term—has fallen by 6.3%, according to a BusinessWeek tabulation of unpublished data. Yet overall employment has fallen only 4.1%. "There are really bright people who are struggling to find a job," says Josh Albert, managing director at Klein Hersh International, an executive search firm for life scientists.
(AP) CHICAGO — Nearly half of all U.S. children and 90 percent of black youngsters will be on food stamps at some point during childhood, and fallout from the current recession could push those numbers even higher, researchers say.
. (snip)
"Your neighbor may be using some of these programs but it's not the kind of thing people want to talk about," Rank said.
.
The analysis was released Monday in the November issue of Archives of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine. The authors say it's a medical issue pediatricians need to be aware of because children on food stamps are at risk for malnutrition and other ills linked with poverty.
.
"This is a real danger sign that we as a society need to do a lot more to protect children," Rank said.
Snarking aside, Dad & Mom are broke/unemployed/tapped out. The government is digging a hole to China to speed up the process of procuring Hu's USDs. Who do these academics think will "protect children" when the entire society is broke? More importantly, who is going to give them their next grant?!
oh, I thought you meant the penny stock TGEN. Like we need to turn into a penny stock board.
Come to think of it, many stocks may be pennies in the future.
re: condo oversupply
the distribution of condos is much more concentrated, while SFHs are spread across the country. that would be my guess for the difference in scale conflicting with oversupply.
perhaps also more flipping on condos, as the average actual cost to build is lower than that of a SFH.
A theoretical only loosely based on Allen Ms coup.
Old:
Balance $200k, Rate 6.95%, Term 26y, Payment $1220/mo
New:
Balance $200k, Rate 3.75%, Term 26y, Payment $1000/mo
Assume the property is worth $180k and value remains constant. How long until LTV drops to 100%?
Ans: 4 years to get to zero.
yogi
What about AIG or GE or Citigroup or the Federal Reserve w/ Maiden Lane I, II, III
we must be careful about referring to which company has lost the most money in history these days
There is no "oversupply". That's nonsense. There are only owners unwilling to accept a loss. Oversupply is rotting fruit or fish. When the condos have rotted before their time, you can use "oversupply".
Denninger's latest rant on Bair misses the mark. First of all, he doesn't even go to the FDIC site and bother to read her speech in total. Secondly, he once again fails to realize that the regulators, are all under Congressional oversight and will get booted out if they, or Sheila do anything that is against the will of Congress. It's not the will of Congress to fail a ton of banks, especially when everyone considers this situation a financial crises that is temporary.
I had a chance to listen to the recent TARP COP panel. The focus was on HAMP, and small business/small banking loans. It sounds like the Treasury is going to embark on a TARP-like program for community banks to help get small business lending going. Treasury guy up there was talking that they were going to ask the small/community banks for a business plan and show their intent prior to giving them TARP money. I don't know if they've already announced further details; but that was his intent, there's going to be some program that gives help thorugh the small/community banks, since those banks lend to small businesses. However; there will be strings and they will ensure that the money goes back into the economy is lent and there will be metrics to show this.
The other interesting thing was that Elizabeth Warren absolutely killed him on the HAMP program and how many people will go from the temporary loan modification to permanent loan modifications and then how many of those permanent loans won't re-default in 5 years. It sounded like he didn't have a model for how many of these temporary modifications (which were 3 months, but now have been extended to 5 months) were converting to permanent. He kept dodging the question, and she kept repeating, "You guys, have to have models. You've been looking at data for months!" It was like 10 minutes of him not divulging what their models were telling... and basically he just said, their goal is that 75% of the people on the HAMP make it to permanent loan modification... but it sounds like the expected success rate is 50% to start out and they will work to get 75%.
So is Treasury reimbursing those who take write-downs on HAMP or something? There was some talk about the 120k per foreclosure cost... how does this work in places where homes aren't even worth that much?
There are a number of Congressional committe meetings I've converted to MP3 for my own personal use and I promise I'll put up something on rapidshare so that others can hear the meetings if they so choose. Two more I want to capture from this month are this Senate Banking committee on Dark Pools and market structure, as well as the Financial Regulation meeting from the House Oversight committee.... so expect me to link something to rapidshare in a couple of days... just in case others are interested (GPO site lags by 8-10 months or so... so whats the poin tof waiting for the printed transcript?).
yogi
There are more homes than households. There is an oversupply until that is remedied by average household sizes shrinking, and population growth. Not enough capital to buy the home + pay the ongoing costs to be used as vacation homes either. Price does help spur household formation, but there is an oversupply to which it will take years for the market to react to once it gets non-manipulated signals from current prices.
A bid using hypothetical comment profiles to convince 'defending the basic status quo' types to break on through to the other side of 'the sick and tired' and ask for the monetary system, endless bailout/stimuli/endless expensive wars to be STOPPED...(All caps for occasional emphasis.)
Status quo defenders of more of the same:
~focus on trivia & minutiae
~isolationist (isolate a small problem and make it the Big Problem)
~use a lot of anecdotal conversation or idle conversation that has no apparent 'solutions' or 'new ideas'
(But of course idle chat or banter is typical on econ blogs discussion topics and threads but I'm referring to strategies maybe to argue or invalidate the 'sick and tired' rants where people had had it and want it BS to just stop and call for civil action!)
~belligerance
~silent treatment of certain topics and criticism of the Powers That Be
VARIOUS EXAMPLES OF ABOVE:
'Yeah that Neel Kashkari from GS is the worst kind of Squidcreature!!!! Yuk!!!'
'Yeah...that GS, like Taibbi says, IS THE Evil Squid...horrible, HORRIBLE...I tell you...just the absolute scum of the Earth!!!'
'Gee...I just saw three homeless men eating a dead squirrel that they cooked with a match and a pile of newspaper in a shopping cart...the World Is About To End As We Know It...Oh My Gawd!!!!
The Reserve Bank of India, or RBI, is buying 200 tonnes of gold from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), nearly half of what the fund plans to sell.
pfizer is in the news promoting the obama healthcare spending package, for everyone still hoping he wasn't a sell out like every other
not the first time for this case, or the only lament but it's topical
The Reserve Bank of India, or RBI, is buying 200 tonnes of gold from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), nearly half of what the fund plans to sell.
Someone help me read between the lines. Is the IMF liquidating its positions because it needs the currency? Are the BRIC folks getting the in exchange for their cooperation with the IMF's goals? With all of the goldbug hating on the 'net, why are the big boys moving around so much in such large quantities? See London -> HK move. IMF's liquidation. etc.
EVERY time I see statistics of children who are either homeless, living on food stamps or receiving free meals at school, I am shocked and saddened. It's pretty bad when I am grateful to be a child of depression era orphans. That sounds bad. I love them to death and have learned so much from them. Maybe our childrens' children will benefit like many of us have. I just hope to heck that we don't have that flood of orphans that my parent's generation experienced.
It sounds like the Treasury is going to embark on a TARP-like program for community banks to help get small business lending going.
recently had a coffee shop that's been in business 20 years close its doors. reason? bank wouldn't loan $4K to replace a stove that malfunctioned. The $4K loan wasn't the killer, the bank wasn't that shaky. problem was that the small business didn't have the requisite documentation to qualify for a loan; never needed that level of documentation before. easy access to credit cards and the home ATM created very sloppy business
personal green shoots. got back home yesterday and business at the car wash is booming. turns out several of the new-fangled laser washes closed down, driving business my way. now i just need a silver quarter sorter. thanks for the poster that pointed out that pre-1965 quarters have ~$3 in silver content. over the years, i've collected pre-1950s just for novelty's sake, and have about 20 pickle jars worth....
well yeah
the price is set and it takes time for demand + supply to realign. and sometimes the price signal is manipulated by intermediate hoarding or liquidation
that's how I see most markets anyways
read in the Hockey News profile of Shane Doan, who through his volunteer work learned the average age of homeless people in Phoenix AZ was 9 years old. I don't know if that is a real statistic, but the reference was to a cool school that aimed to reduce barriers to homeless families/children from attendance (showers, washer/dryer on site. supplies provided. most kids there are in similar situations)
Many of the 'sick & tired' of the public tend to blame out-of-control or unresponsive government or the entrenched, unaccountable central monetarists (bankers) for the disintegrating clustermess.
The status quo defenders who promote or tolerate more of the same failed government over-spending policies (& 'fear tactic' increased stimulus spending sales pitches) tend to blame maybe the 'sick and tired' (& indebted and/or insolvent) for their own mess or blame some trivial or lower level aspect of government or monetary policy for the random, accidental, or Black Swan cluster f**k...
No that is where I am lost. Does the IMF really need the money, and they have no other way to get fiat except through liquidating their PM reserves? That is bad sh^t crazy unless they think they are cashing out on a high and will get it back on a low? I don't mean to be dense, but I really don't think I understand the dynamic playing out here.
yogi
you could house literally all the homeless, and there would still be supply leftover
what's more, even if you dropped the prices to zero tomorrow, the houses would not all be filled immediately. Utilities, taxes, maintenance, transporation... not to mention all the other considerations deciding where one chooses to live. it's an over supply.
I am absolutely sympathetic to the point you brought up, but the proper way to describe it is a waste.
a waste of money on an expensive housing policy, while neglecting all the important areas of government's responsibility
culture of debt and easy access to credit. "Extend and pretend" has been on Main Street far longer than Wall Street.
TheState.com 404 Sales had been down by double digits in the past few months. But [owner Thomas] Meihls said the final blow for the coffee shop was his inability to get a bank loan to replace a $4,000 stove that did not pass inspection from the city fire marshal.
"A couple of years ago, they'd call you, 'Can I give you money?'" Meihls said. "This year, I need money, and it's just, 'No. Don't even come in the office and fill out the application.' "
Does the IMF really need the money, and they have no other way to get fiat except through liquidating their PM reserves?
Basically, yes and yes, but the real issue is that they have been talking about selling one particular batch of 400 tonnes for many, many years. I cheer the day they sold half of it. I wish they would sell the other half tomorrow, perhaps to China, so I don't have to hear about this any more.
like everything else, i'm sure there's some substitution towards hand washing, but it's pretty surprising how many apartments or HOAs prohibit hand washing. not to mention, it's a pain in the butt. additionally, people are skimping in other ways first. for example, not washing for as long or not getting the foam brush. but based on the numbers, i think substitution is working in my favor.
the reference was to a cool school that aimed to reduce barriers to homeless families/children from attendance (showers, washer/dryer on site. supplies provided. most kids there are in similar situations)
Not to be a hater, but what exactly is the goal for educating these homeless children? I know something has to be done, but we have no quality employment opportunities for HS grads as it is. Would these children be prepped for university studies? Who will pay for college? How will it work out if they remain transient? How will they affect the children already suffering who weren't so far behind the 8-Ball of Life?
.
I applaud the effort and the goal, and for the record, I may just be having a dense moment tonight. As times get tougher and resources get tighter, do we fight even harder to ensure no child is left behind, or is it since children are left behind, we must try not to add to the pack?
I know but I would think Benny could just print out a few extra billions for the IMF and be done with it. It would be like selling your PM stash when you still have other assets or a credit card or Uncle Joe.
yagij,
I don't know those details, name is Thomas J. Pappas School for homeless children.
Are you being facetious? If not, I'm willing to venture a few guesses
Are you being facetious? If not, I'm willing to venture a few guesses
The cynic in me is thinking along the lines of keeping them off the streets and out of trouble as much as possible until they are adults and move into the Big Kids' Institution Rotation. It wasn't until I found myself in a group of teachers that I was hit with the idea that year-round school is more of a way to keep the "bad kids" off the streets longer than helping children learn and grow. Of course, the talking points would never touch that line of thinking publicly.
.
If you are talking about a boarding school approach to education, I can understand that process. Provide a home for those who have no home and give them the chance to learn and make something of themselves. If it is just a way to help them return to a public school without risking the stigma of being transients, good luck with that. I was heckled for not wearing the right kind of shoes and came from a good family. I cannot imagine what it would be like trying to fit in with a real hard background.
but the proper way to describe it is a waste.
a waste of money on an expensive housing policy, while neglecting all the important areas of government's responsibility
+10
So is Treasury reimbursing those who take write-downs on HAMP or something? There was some talk about the 120k per foreclosure cost... how does this work in places where homes aren't even worth that much?
I've been struggling to understand what is going on, but from the following Forbes article, it looks like whatever it is is costing taxpayers money...
Fannie Mae ( FNM - news - people ), Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae buy back delinquent or fraudulent loans from securities pools, and that pace should ramp up, analysts predicted.
The purchases result in prepayments.
'For the next prepay report, lower coupons -- 4-1/2s through 5-1/2s -- should continue to slow due to abated refinancing activities, while higher coupons -- 6-1/2s and above -- should speed up on higher buyouts,' Barclays said. Also, as loan terms are altered under the federal mortgage modification program, known as HAMP, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would typically buy those mortgages out of bond pools, resulting in a prepayment.
So HAMP is essentially a pre-screen and buyout of agency and non-agency loans into Fannie/Freddy pools?
yagij
I think you are expecting the homeless children to be thieving, drug using, runaways.
A lot of them might be 10 year olds mostly living in a car with their parents who lost their jobs and house
Even if they were runaways by choice, they might have good reasons and I'm going to assume any kid in that school is there of their own free will because it sounds like it is oversubscribed.
Being homeless does not indicate they are problem children to put it simply
Please don't be either a hater or have any more dense moments. Have you seen the studies where PUBLIC prep schools admit students by lotteries instead of previous academic success and have equally terrific results? You touched a nerve. Just because you're homeless doesn't mean you're worthless.
Ehp, I know we have too many houses by just about any intelligent measure. You know I support more central planning of the aggregate number of houses built than we have now. My preferred mechanism would be forcing the losses from the bubble on the toxic paper holders.
The long term damage from mal-investment in houses will be real. Economic policy is a matter of semantic framing of the issue. I insist that a "housing crisis" is not enough shelter, especially for innocent children or unlucky people willing and able to work.
Any small business that has been in business for 25 years should have 4K sitting around. It's like the banks paying out all the money in bonuses. (I'm so jaded now, I can't tell if this was a snark or not.)
Feckless Ness
An elephant's stream would be powerful enough to knock you over, make you hit your head on the ground, and then forget that you were ever in a pissing contest with an elephant
Anyone know if Delaware's tax-dodge-friendly regulation ever comes up as a topic for the local public? I'm pretty sure every other top haven's citizens are informed about the rules
Tax-dodge-friendly regulation is the reason that State exists. It is not something that is questioned. (Edit: but really it's more about corporate governance and liability issues than about taxes.)
But props for them for being the first to ratify the Constitution.
Yagij: whether you believe no child should be "left behind" is your business.
Whether you think homeless children have the same potential if given an equal shot is also your business, but more open to rational/statistical inquiry.
All I'll say now is that "free" City College of New York at one time had more Nobel Prize laureates than any other institution.
I'm biased, since I believe the greatest genius the US has ever produced was homeless for many years. (Ask a Scandinavian whom they think is the greatest US genius...)
Coming to in a puddle of elephant piss didn't jog your memory?
I'm just wondering why the IMF would sell if it didn't have to. I don't know how the IMF works, but that yellow stuff is shiny and pretty and somebody at IMF must be drooling and saying "my precious" and not wanting to sell. They must have analysts who think the price will continue to climb. So what's the incentive to sell now? Or am I ?
The IMF / central banks sell gold when there is turmoil to stem a run out of currency and into assets, which would reduce the effectiveness/control of central banks' monetary policies. They did it during 1997/1998, and the introduction of the Euro among others. They also sell it to raise money without depressing a given currency
From the story it sounds like they were already losing money. Then when they needed $4k more for the stove, they decided to just cut their loses instead of sinking another $4k into a money losing business. The really sad stories are the ones about the small business owners who max out all their credit cards trying to keep their business afloat when they should have just let go months before.
also
they have enough gold on hand to sell enough covered calls into the market to knock the stuffing out of anyone, or even just by renting the gold to someone else who does the same. very insidious even before JPM took a 78% market share in gold trading with HSBC taking up the rest
If a small business doesn't use its leverage to renegotiate a lease or borrow money against 20 years of goodwill or savings, then I don't have too much sympathy either.
The IMF would seemingly be acting to keep I from teaming up with RC in calling for a new reserve currency. Haven't heard anything from B, but game theory says bricks are stronger than paper bazookas.
My BIL bought into a coffee shop with not much record keeping, I told my sister it was losing money. Why did I say this? Because in my experience with closing down small businesses, when you think you're growing or making money, it's a pleasure to do the books. When you dread keeping the books,...it's because you know what it's going to look like.
When the gold sale was proposed in early 2007, the 12.97 million ounces of gold that would be sold had an estimated value of $6.6 billion.
At around $1053, that 12.97 million ounces (403.3 tonnes) is worth about $13.6 billion today, or more than twice what it was worth when the sale was first proposed.
The really sad stories are the ones about the small business owners who max out all their credit cards trying to keep their business afloat when they should have just let go months before.
Actually the really sad stories are guys who took HELOCs out on their homes to keep empty buildings current on the debt before losing them anyway.
India is buying gold from the IMF to get rid of U.S. dollars?
Well, since rich is here I'd also say that perhaps more of their citizens are thinking of wearing a few more bracelets as a hedge against the future. Or perhaps the Indian bank needs to replenish their stores?
Or perhaps the Indian bank needs to replenish their stores?
I cannot think of a better way for the government in India to display its strength (and wisdom) to its citizens. If this were being done solely for domestic political consumption, it would be a brilliant stroke.
At the current market value of $1,054 an ounce, or per 28.5g, RBI would need to spend about $7.4 billion to buy 200 tonnes of gold. With this, its gold reserve will rise to $17.716 billion, or roughly 6.20% of the total reserves.
According to a report by the Associated Press dated 20 September, India, along with China and Russia, had evinced interest in buying IMF-held gold.
At a total holding of 103.4 million ounces, or 3,217 tonnes, IMF is the third largest official holder of gold after the US and Germany.
IMF’s total holding at historical price is valued at about $9.2 billion on its balance sheet. At market prices, as of 28 August, the fund’s total gold holdings were worth $98.8 billion.
Maybe someone will book a bonus on the appreciation, eh? Who taxes the IMF's capital gains...
One parting shot and then I'm off to bed. Sure would like to know who Mork from Ork is shilling for. (No offense to comrade shill.) MfO's profile shows 9 whole days on Hoocoodanode. Surely kcoop or Nemo's monkey or one of our other IT types could spider-bot back to MfO's URL and ID him. I'm guessing he's one of Timmay's.
India has a lot of leftover money from it's policy of neutralizing speculative capital inflows
instead of keeping those reserves in USTs, they are keeping it in gold which through rent pays a higher interest rate
at the same time they are 'doing their part' to fund the IMF so it can loan money to Pakistan and keep it from imploding, among other clients
at $6.7bn, it's a small deal probably intended as a stepping stone in the world of optics
maybe they are even trying to support the domestic jewelery industry somehow
I don't know
The other thing I should have mentioned is that in Australia property taxes are usually levied on the land value without regard to the structure(s) on the land. (The word used here is 'improvements'.)
The unintended consequence - any Georgists out there please take note - is that governments have a massive incentive to raise land values (and keep them raised).
On the flip side Australia has vast expanses of pretty ordinary agricultural land, and a vocal lobby in rural areas to keep taxes low. The agriculturalists don't, however, object to huge windfall profits from land sales after re-zoning.
So, we tend to see fairly strict regulations but a ready political ear for development proposals.
That said, property taxes here seem to me to be much lower than in parts of the US. My brother pays about $1500 a year on a house valued at over $600K.
Perhaps this is because things like public education are administered at the State level (and most welfare at the Federal level).
Mork lives with Sebastian in a rental unit owned by the dude in the Inland Empire who kept on carping about deflationistas washing up on the rocky shores.
Did you see that PK gave props to Mish for discrediting ECRI's bullishness?
Yes, I sure did. The difficult thing is that there does seem to be some kind of recovery going on. Even if it is stimulus led. Nice that PK reads Mish. Must make him choke with Mish's bad attitude to state employees...
I'm really interested to see and hear how people think things will develop, bullish or not. I did notice that cash held by the TBTF is increasing hand over fist, like 20% increases QoQ. It's hard for me to understand where the liquidity is coming from to drive stocks up, if the banks are sitting on increasingly large piles of USD...
yogi
member central banks to the imf just keep it all in their own vaults, and on their books record it as a separate account available on demand to the imf, and for the imf to call on that money the member central bank must give its assent. the imf is just a formal structure for central banks to operate independently in cooperation as I understand it
The interesting thing is that short of bankerdome eventually Sebastian will be right. His methods will start working again when the economy resumes operating normally. That was his only serious error; believing this was a normal recessionary cycle.
I'm really interested to see and hear how people think things will develop, bullish or not.
Keynesian policies can only work when the recession is psychological and not balance sheet driven. They bought themselves a temporary spike and that's all they'll get.
According to this, the IMF holds no physical gold reserves. Anyone know differently?
That blogger doesn't know 'for sure' either. It's not like the IMF publishes the locations of its vaults.
If you want to believe the blogger's statement that the IMF has no physical gold, all I can say is that it could be out on lease. With that much physical, why wouldn't an owner want to make a return on holding it?
If you then believe that just creates paper gold, let me direct to the various ETFs who have taken paper gold to a whole new level.
Keynesian policies can only work when the recession is psychological and not balance sheet driven. They bought themselves a temporary spike and that's all they'll get.
Sounds reasonable to me. Real recoveries seem like they often start when people stop hiding and start borrowing again, both to consume, and to start and expand businesses. And at some GDP growth delta, the process 'lights off' and becomes self-sustaining.
I'm sure that's what the $787 billion was intended to do.
If you then believe that just creates paper gold, let me direct to the various ETFs who have taken paper gold to a whole new level.
Many ETFs are backed by swaps collateralized with random financial assets and the faith that counterparties will be able to cover their pledges, while they charge ongoing fees and make no guarantees on any slippage. Futures / paper gold is much better than etf non-gold gold
Jonathan, did you see the latest ContraryInvestor piece? The first two charts illustrate the massive & ongoing credit destruction we're experiencing. There's no green shoots to be found in that data -- none.
why wouldn't an owner want to make a return on holding it?
And why not pledge it to a whole bunch of suckers... Are they all going to call at once?
And when they all call at once, "Sorry, it's at Fort Knox. We don't have those keys. Sorry, the window's closed now..."
The problem with recovery this time is that recoveries occur when people take advantage of opportunity. Between credit and outsourcing and regulation this time there is going to be a lot less opportunity to go around.
So how much you want to wager that the FED has counted their share of the 400 tons more than once on the books?
I don't believe the Fed owns any gold, but rather that the gold reserves of the U.S. are owned by the Treasury, with a small part being allocated to the Mint on an annual basis.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York maintains a vault that lies 80 feet (24 m) below street level, resting on Manhattan bedrock[1]. By 1927, the vault contained ten percent of the world's official gold reserves. Currently, it is reputedly the largest gold repository in the world (though this cannot be confirmed as Swiss Banks do not report their gold stocks) and holds approximately 5,000 metric tons of gold bullion ($160 billion as of March 2008), more than Fort Knox. The gold is owned by many foreign nations, central banks and international organizations. The Federal Reserve Bank does not own the gold but serves as guardian of the precious metal, which it protects at no charge as a gesture of goodwill to other nations.
maybe he just didn't like paypal? I still have not given them my trust yet
the whole point I was trying to make was that I don't support squelching dissenting opinions. I think it's fair to use Sebastian as a symbolic inverse hoocoodanode sentiment
If I only wanted to hear what would happen, it would be a lonely community. Could just use a mirror and do that by video conference.
So long as people are consistent, and willing to participate in a dialogue/polite argument then I have no qualms. Spammers are in the former, and disruptively rude people are in the latter.
Futures / paper gold is much better than etf non-gold gold
Never quite thought of it that way, but I would agree that ETF paper gold is a lower quality paper than other forms of paper gold. Wow, paper gold that's not worth the paper it's not printed on. That's a whole new level.
EHP
how many homeless children have you known in your lifetime... answer, I bet, zero.
I've know about a half dozen and their development curve wasn't something you'd wish on
your enemy... just sayin'.
Incidentally and OT, houses can be a giant PITA. We had a widow spider (black body with white marking, probably a black widow, only 5% lethal!) out on the back earlier, and something is knocking shit over in the roof space. I feel a pest control visit coming on...
I don't ever care to "squelch dissenting opinions". I just get annoyed when someone steps in with a thoroughly discredited piece of "conventional wisdom" and acts like the Commentariat are clueless. Those are trolls, and I think you nailed MfO accordingly.
And why not pledge it to a whole bunch of suckers... Are they all going to call at once?
And when they all call at once, "Sorry, it's at Fort Knox. We don't have those keys. Sorry, the window's closed now..."
Yes, yogi, everyone is a liar, everyone is a fraud, nothing spoken is real, no one is dependable, it's all an illusion.
Jonathon,
The intentional Crash will not be denied or prevented. It's textbook. It's inevitable because of cause-and-effect.
Check the relevant research on financial crises and currency crises.
While not disputing the facts,..you really were pretty abrasive leading up to that. As far as I can recall, it was surprising because it was the only time he actually insulted someone, other than a few spats with CR,...and he had plenty of provocation from others far worse than that.
my rule of thumb is that if they've been on the street for 5 years or more
the chances of re-hab are slim to none... some years ago I once spent a lot of time and treasure
trying to do a Pygmalion on one such person and after all that time I doubt if I changed a damn thing...
very frustrating when you see no progress or realized you were being played...
I'm a pretty young guy and it seems like all the recoveries I can really remember have been fueled by debt and bubbles. In our economy's current state, it's hard for me to even see how we get out of here without blowing another huge bubble. The obstacles seem so much greater than anything that's come before. Or perhaps things just looked easier in hindsight.
That's why I'm addicted to reading financial blogs now. What we're going through will be studied in textbooks for the rest of my life and I want to know what's going on as it's happening.
the member nations have pledged the gold and imf holds paper and balance sheet entries
heres just one of several para that taken together leave little doubt
"These concerns about IMF gold sales were recognized in 1975 in a joint bipartisan statement by Senator Ribicoff (D-Conn.) and Senator Taft (R-Ohio):
Either the gold belongs to the IMF, or it belongs to the member states,
which contributed the gold in proportion to their quotas. In either case,
the profits should be distributed to the member nations in proportion
to their quotas. "
Duke of Con Dao
I have known people who were temporarily homeless, and those currently homeless. Some good people in a bad situation, some evil junkies.
You're right on the main point though that I don't know any homeless children personally.
I have no problem with standing by my point that being homeless does not make someone a bad person or stupid. If the kid is working hard and all it takes to get him in the classroom is free laundry so he isn't too embarrassed to attend, why not?
Behavioral problems affect both rich and poor children, and it would be best to handle that as an issue itself.
I never said there wasn't correlation between homelessness and other problems. Just that homelessness itself should not be a cause of a child not getting the opportunity of education.
For what it's worth, the school(s) for homeless children were being run by charitable donation and closed shortly after they ran out of money 2 years ago.
what a sad story. Trend analysts had forecast in 2008 that US will live on food stamps in the not so distant future. Things have already strated to happen.
This really hurts my head (and heart). I seem to remember that childhood obesity is a wide spread problem. So the half that aren't on food stamps are over eating?
One other 'defender of the status quo'/more of the same crowd 'wildcardplay' may be intentionally over the top types who ridiculously support monetary policy/stimulus/bailout government-economy measures and will incite some 'pseudo-debate' between the 'sick & tired' crowd and the standard status quo gatekeepers. Makes for blog drama with no real substance.
I love life. I enjoyed watching 3-card monty before they shut it down and/or the tourists wised up. Those guys had talent and skill. The game was less rigged the the FED's, though. You could turn over the card with your own hand.
$2 quadrillion...
OT went to school with Ribicoff's grandson. Became a sound technician, not a banker.
This really hurts my head (and heart). I seem to remember that childhood obesity is a wide spread problem. So the half that aren't on food stamps are over eating?
I used to know a little about electronics. On thing was that when a circuit overheats, more current flows, it heats up more, more current flows, etc., until it destroys itself. Not sure if this is specific to amplifiers. Called 'Thermal Runway'.
Crossed my mind the other day that the Farming-Food-Industrial-Complex has discovered how to trip the human 'Thermal Runway' that winds up in food addiction and obesity.
It hard to believe that say Seb or Mork from Ork are for real.
Reminds me of the Jim Nabors 'character' in Gomer Pyle or the Tom Hank's Forrest Gump 'character'.
Very entertaining but unbelievable.
JP, food stamps aren't a direct cause of obesity, but they are correlated. The link is that aid recipients are more likely to purchase processed crap food because they also lack proper kitchen/food prep and storage facilities.
1 Currency
Abe Ribicoff's grandson? was he a banker before he became a Senator?
...
EHP
your point well taken. guess I see homelessness and eventual runaway as a jumping off point.
agree. no child should be denied school. like I said earlier the 'feral aspect' once set in too deep
is hard to eliminate.
also, turning a pathological liar into more or less an honest person seems to me at least impossible
unless you're willing to do a Clockwork Orange on them...
One Currency,
Yeah...but will some type of 'last standing lender of last resort' Evil Squidish Biggest Bank on Earth 'control' the 'one currency now' somehow??????
that the wright b was an econometric model forecasting recessions...or uh the business cycle
and sebastian had great faith in the efficacy of that model
i agree with Rob Dawg that had the business cycle been in any way, conventional, the model may likely have worked
indeed, i believe if applied conventionally keynesian approach works
problem is we never did what keynes said...
government was supposed to run counter cyclical budgets...accumulate surpluses during fat times
and run deficits during downturns
our federal government has been on a debt binge thru-out so yeah i guess keynes wuz wrong, kinda sorta
i agree with my friends on the right here (yeah im a lefty) all this deficit spending is just drawing one more white line of credit meth on the fed mirror
Anyone interested in practicing their lecturing? I don't speak good, and in order to ascend to the political class it is necessary for those on the bottom to develop the skills, such as speaking in public. I propose we have a "CR Commetariat Lecture Series"; where commentariat so inclined prepare and give pretend lectures to large groups of people on various subjects. After 3 weeks of collecting lectures we use 2 weeks or so for everyone to listen to the lectures, vote for winners and make comments on the subject matter.
Denninger's comments made me look at the lecture series Bair spoke at; they had an archive of speeches that goes back into the 1960s. Robert F Kennedy talking about the Vietnam war in 1968; Reagan giving a speech in 1971 which spoke to me a little bit. Perhaps this project is a bit ambitious... I'd like to participate in toastmasters but don't have the time during the day.
All the lectures given in University and colleges seem to be given by the elites. The power of the Internet and blogosphere has the ability for the underclass to speak to the elites and spread ideas that don't come from the top.
Just a thought I had... we could use something like rapidshare to easily share files...
Duke of Con Dao
I know first hand what those descents into the abyss look like. Glad that we came to a common understanding.
restated; Not so much outwardly saving others, but reducing barriers through introspection of the system
YLSP,
'The power of the internet and the blogosphere...'
Yes...one can review the research...look at speeches...investigations...public reports with lots of blacked out sections...but the internet can be a tool for discovery... just stay off the hoax sites and misinfo sites...go the the Ivory Tower and the Ivy league on the computer...enter the world of higher learning...where our leaders don't seem to go...
"This really hurts my head (and heart). I seem to remember that childhood obesity is a wide spread problem. So the half that aren't on food stamps are over eating?"
Lots of fat poor kids, but they can be malnourished because they live on starchy, fatty foods. Nasty processed food is more expensive than lean meat and fresh veggies in the suburbs, but good food is more expensive or not available in many bad areas. Add in parents that don't know any better or are stressed out from working two jobs, etc.
Also, junk food is an accessible pleasure. There's a great passage in "Down and Out in Paris and London" about well-meaning do-gooders expecting poor people to eat carrots and brown bread, instead of white toast and tea.
Born in New Britain, Connecticut to Polish-Jewish immigrants Abraham A. Ribicoff, a factory worker, and Rose Sable Ribicoff, he attended local public schools. His relatively poor parents valued education and insisted that all his earnings from part-time boyhood jobs go toward his future schooling. After high school, he worked for a year at a nearby factory of the G. E. Prentice Company in order to earn additional funds for college. He enrolled at New York University in 1928, then transferred to the University of Chicago after the Prentice Company made him the Chicago office manager. While in Chicago, Ribicoff coped with school and work schedules and was permitted to enter the university's law school before finishing his undergraduate degree.
...
Ribicoff served as editor of the University of Chicago Law Review in his third year and received an LL.B. cum laude in 1933, being admitted to the Connecticut bar the same year.
...
Generally liberal in his outlook, he surprised many by opposing a $32 million appropriation for the construction of a dam in Enfield, Connecticut, arguing that the money was better spent on military needs and foreign policy initiatives such as the Marshall Plan.
In 1952 he made an unsuccessful bid for election to fill a vacancy in the United States Senate, losing to Prescott Bush.
...
When Kennedy became president, Ribicoff was offered his choice of cabinet posts in the new administration. He reportedly turned down the position of attorney general, fearing that as a Jew he might create needless controversy within the emerging civil rights movement, and instead chose to be secretary of health, education and welfare (HEW). Although he did manage to secure a revision of the 1935 Social Security Act that liberalized requirements for aid-to-dependent-children funds from Congress, Ribicoff was unable to gain approval for the administration's medicare and school aid bills. Eventually he tired of attempting to manage HEW, whose very size made it, in his opinion, unmanageable.
in order to ascend to the political class it is necessary for those on the bottom to develop the skills, such as speaking in public.
The real trick is in not joining the political class but having their ear. There's no way to teach influence and the mantle can prove every bit as distasteful as a life in politics can be for many.
At the 1968 Democratic National Convention, during a speech nominating George McGovern, he went off-script, saying, "With George McGovern as President of the United States, we wouldn't have to have Gestapo tactics in the streets of Chicago." Many conventioneers, having been appalled by the response of the Chicago police to the simultaneously occurring anti-war demonstrations, promptly broke into ecstatic applause. As television cameras focused on an indignant Chicago Mayor Richard J. Daley, lip-readers throughout America claimed to have observed him shouting, "Fuck you, you Jew son of a bitch." Defenders of the mayor would later claim that he was calling Ribicoff a faker. Ribicoff spent the remaining years of his Senate career fighting for such liberal issues as school integration, welfare and tax reform, and consumer protection.
OT
speaking of the Chicago anti-war riots or whatever they're called years ago I was briefly acquainted with a guy who owned a bar
up near Columbia... seems during that riot he ended up killing someone, accidentally or not, I'm not sure. he was a student at Columbia College at the time and charges were never pressed by Chicago, from what I understand Columbia was involved to some extent.
the source was his business partner and long time friend... even 18 years after the event he looked like he could easily snap my neck...
I was hinting that the Ribicoff family did not get rich from "public service". There are bad lawyers and doctors, but the cliche in my culture is not to study to become a banker.
Now comedian is a noble calling, and I'll bet you all the dollars I have Al Franken had higher test scores in school than Gore/Bush/Kerry/Reagan [it came up earlier].
68
the democratic convention
mayor richard daley yelling "fuck you" clearly to be seen on TV
as the police and anti war protesters went at it in streets
was in highschool at the time and had classmates who went on to serve in vietnam
most were drafted, some volunteered, some didnt come back
thats why we dont have a draft anymore
without a draft most parents and young people say hey its not my war
no chance ill forced to fight
and so they let the deciders decide what ever they want
Sebastian is free not to pay on a bet [assuming that to be the fact], but his reputation suffers, and mock is right to hound him about his lies or insults. Sebastian can always challenge the record. From the failed trade, I know I can take mock's word and not Sebastian's, which I would have predicted from the content of their comments anyway.
yeah Al Franken...
I use to see him at Riverside Park at 73rd with his kid, lived close by, and a former friend of mine use to
do computer training for his wife... (wonder how that worked out for her?)
no doubt he got some high test scores but I never thought
he was such a great comedian - always wondered why they kept him on SNL so long,
perhaps he's a master at the in-fighting behind closed doors, who knows ...
what was his partner's name when they first appeared on SNL in '75?
what circuit of comedy hell is he playing these days?
The funniest elected official I know is Governor Paterson. Sad that he's stuck in a no-win crisis. He actually sounded a public alarm against kicking the can last week, in announcing the record acceleration of New York's deficit. (A record for ANY State)
Franken and Davis were OK on the original snl, but Franken was probably best as a writer.
"Rush Limbaugh Is a Big Fat Idiot" is not hyperbole.
It sorta makes sense in a sick way to stiff or greatly cut all the unfunded government liabilities or financial claims that are outstanding now and give all the money to Big Banks and maybe even Big Foreign Banks...that would at least explain the intentional Crashing of the system...the fact that financial claims then could not be paid...and the nation destroyed...and massive 'profit-taking' from a generation ready to retire with savings transferred to elites...makes sense...in a global financial conspiracy novel...
Anyone interested in practicing their lecturing? I don't speak good, and in order to ascend to the political class it is necessary for those on the bottom to develop the skills, such as speaking in public. I propose we have a "CR Commetariat Lecture Series"; where commentariat so inclined prepare and give pretend lectures to large groups of people on various subjects. After 3 weeks of collecting lectures we use 2 weeks or so for everyone to listen to the lectures, vote for winners and make comments on the subject matter.
"If they dare to come out in the open field and defend these wasteful bailouts as a good thing, we shall fight them to the uttermost, having behind us the producing masses of the nation and the world. Having behind us the commercial interests and the laboring interests and all the toiling masses, we shall answer their demands for another stimulus by saying to them, you shall not press down upon the brow of savers this crown of thorns. You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of debt."
1 Currency
I agree with you on Franken, he's really a writer... one reason why I never opened that book was it's off putting title, not that I would open a book by Rush...
as for Patterson have they been able to get him not to run again? wasn't that the Obama plan?
Just game theory at work. The old barons threatened to take their riches and relocate in the face of high taxes to fund the New Deal. Their bluff was called. Does Jamie Dimon make something the Chinese can't? (David X Li is back home in China right now, probably not a big bonus)
Taxes may be low in Paraguay, but the cost of doing business...
How Reliable Is the M-16 Rifle? - At War Blog - NYTimes.com
if anyone missed it there's an interesting article on the M-16 rifle
......
Few issues are more personal to soldiers than the question of whether they can trust their rifles. And few rifles in history have generated more controversy over their reliability than the American M-16 assault rifle and its carbine version, the M-4..."
also, read some of the comments below it like:
4) "You didn’t mention the critical advantages of the M-16 and M-4 - they are lightweight and extremeley accurate. I fought in the invasion of Iraq with the Third Battallion, Fifth Marines, and I can tell you firsthand that after we crossed the Euphrates, we were ambushed nearly every day, often by superior numbers. The main reason we consistenltly stomped our attackers was simple - we hit what we were aiming at and they didn’t. The forces opposing us (Republican Guard, Saddam Fedayeen, and foreign mercerenaries and terrorists) were generally brave, tactically sound, and well armed, they just couldn’t deliver killing shots even in a perfectly executed ambush. Part of the difference in ability was training, but part of it was the inherent inaccuracy of the AK-47. Even the Russians switched over to a round sized similar to .223 long ago with the AK-74. .223 weapons, and especially the M-16 and M-4, are simply much easier to fire accurately in the heat of combat due to their light weight, low recoil, and ease of use. Tweaking the round and rifle itself may be a good idea, I’ll leave that to the experts, but I highly doubt that any move away from .223 would be advisable." Colin
Paterson is running, despite Obama's alleged support for Cuomo. We'll see what Obama's support does for GS's Corzine in NJ tomorrow... Sadly, I like Corzine as a Governor, and can't stand his opponent, whose only promise is to cut taxes.
Paterson is a lot of things Obama isn't, candid being my favorite. Fully capable of coming right out with "I can't see those clothes on the emperor..." We New Yorkers still have a sense of humor. Unfortunately, he's in a no-win.
To their critics, the M-16 and M-4 are ill-suited for Afghanistan and Iraq. Unlike the Kalashnikov rifles carried by insurgents, they are too sensitive to sand and fine dust, they say. They overheat quickly and in the worst battles are prone to fail.
I hope we're smart enough to booby-trap the weapons we sell with a chip or something.
That kind of secrecy I can support. If the cryptologists sell out, we're fucked anyway.
For example, in the early 20th century an American scientist, Gilman Drew, decided to investigate squid’s priorities: hunger or sex. He put a hungry Loligo male in an aquarium with a female. The male subsequently demonstrated where his priorities lay, first mating with the female, and then killing and eating her.
Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- UBS AG, Switzerland’s largest bank, reported a fourth consecutive quarterly loss after a charge to reflect an improvement in the company’s own debt outweighed a rebound in trading revenue.
Of course I want that Nobel to get girls, but I ain't buying any genetic component to behavior other than a general encouragement to diversify for its own sake. Women also want men who provide for 18 years or so, even if they're tempted to sneak off for different genes.
Kucinich is no Machiavelli and Madoff might be getting more than he wants.
the article I cited in the NY Times
How Reliable Is the M-16 Rifle?
is worth the read but what is even more interesting is the hundred or so comments that follow,
if American isn't a gun culture I don't know what is!
.....
you like Corzine but seem to dislike Bloomie... Corzine bought his way into office and probably became
gov. cause if you hang around in the Senate too long you have no shot at the presidency....
EDIT:
someone here shoots a mauser and there was an interesting take on that gun in one of the comments,
Can't really find any more detail on this. I think the take-away message is that the non-bank business model is broken. Without access to cheap deposits, one can't survive in this world.
Watched the lions on PBS yesterday. I hadn't known that the alpha male battle is more complicated than it appears. The females may help the pride's king fight off rival males. It can depend on whether the females stay united, which can depend on how many have their own cubs, and whether they accept their status as aunts.
It's in the group's interest to minimize lethal fights, so sometimes the females will just let the chips fall, knowing that the usurper(s) will likely kill their cubs. But the North American lion is extinct, and lion population is determined much more by human planning than survival of some genetic strain.
According to the periodic table of finance bloggers, Calculated Risk is Thorium, atomic number 90.
Pure thorium is a silvery-white metal. When contaminated with the oxide, thorium slowly tarnishes in air, becoming gray and finally black. When thorium faces reality it becomes a permabear.
Thorium dioxide has the highest melting point (3300 °C) of all oxides. Hence, it can withstand the hypernova bomb as well as hyperinflation.
Thorium decays very slowly, its half-life is comparable to the age of the Universe. Therefore, it can survive the very end of the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar.
I like Corzine based only on what I know of his record versus his opponent (saw some debates, which included an independent who smelled like a John Anderson splitter stooge all the way).
I don't begrudge anyone the right to spend their "hard-earned" money on their own campaign, although I dispute that either has added value in proportion to their wealth. My complaint against Bloomberg is more that he spat in the face of the electoral process by changing term-limits he had supported when they were put to referendum.
Also, although claiming to be a life-long Democrat, he ran as a Republican twice because it was easier to get elected. I think he's an "Independent" this time, having spent $15,000/hour. The money was made by latching onto His news service is good and I trust much of the information, if not the headlines. Homelessness is up, and he said last week that Wall Street bonus revenue was good for the City. So was Madoff's charity, for a time.
By the way, I see his company profits going to zero as information gets cheaper.
1 Currency
I agree, the switch on term limits made me sick, for that he needs a taste of humble pie - DEFEAT!
as for his company I do agree with you but it's going to be a long time coming... he'll come up with some value
added service - always thought that the fees they charged for real time market data were aburd (last time I had
any direct experience was exactly 5 years ago...)
....
right now I'm trying to decide what town to move back to NYC or LA, lived in LA '80-81 and might give it
a shot - I'd really like to work in the 'Business' , yes, I understand it involves a certain amount of selling out -
whether or not they'd take me is another thing...
I once read that it was believed that Nixon never had sex as President, even with his wife.
Einstein did fine, maybe even leveraging his FBI Peacenik outlaw cred.
Duke did you catch last year's "Il Divo"? Superb, and cleverly stylized rather than realist, since the guy's still Senator For Life. If you're going to do docudrama, make it art: nothing ever comes close to actual documentary footage. ["Basterds" was a lot of fun, but way over the top. Thought QT ran out of ideas, so he defied convention just to show he could]
1 currency
I started as a writer (prose) and remain as such before branching into scripts (more of a craft) but directing is fascinating in that sometimes who can re-write a scene on the fly and it becomes a bit like painting unlike say prose writing...
....
I've only edited for exactly 16 months just to teach myself the mechanics...
I'm glad I did cause it taught me a great appreciation of what can be done in post ...
Annie Hall was completely made by Ralph Rosenblum and Woody in post, they
had miles of film and fashioned the story line out of it (originally, was more along the lines
of Manhattan Murder Mystery)
film editing I really get into... but I hate prose editing because it's endless,
footage in the can forces an endpoint....
as fer 'basterds' I've only scene maybe 30% of it since my copy is crap
what I saw so far is riffing off other movies... perhaps you're right
QT's out of ideas, I doubt we'll see anything out of him great for awhile
if ever, perhaps he needs to taste the bitter ashes of defeat a few times
instead of having enablers like the Weinsteins around (Don Kings of the biz)
As did Chaplin, Kubrick. Sometimes the genius is in extending the scene beyond all convention. I thought Mike Myers did a nice job of overkill in the first "Austin Powers". Kubrick probably went too long on occasion.
Agree with the ironic quote about avoiding the award-winning editor, though.
Woody and Spike have great seats to the Knicks, didn't have to sell out much. Less can be more. Of course, the Knicks haven't beaten the Lakers since Clyde...
Mayor Mike will stop traffic for you, and so far he'll let you speak your mind... Almost time to try to dump the arrogant $%^&#
it's been some years not but the film project I was involved with in the City after we
had the footage my director went thru 3 editors over 2 years, still ended up not so good,
why? the problem was with the script and his refusal to make changes (although he
did use my re-write of the 2nd act), either you have the stuff or you don't and no great editor
can conjure it up for you...
don't get me wrong, I do have one NYC story about central park that originally started out as a short story ,
I think I finished it about 7 years ago and sent it to say a dozen top magazines, of course it was rejected...
but some editor sent me a hand written note and said while it wasn't right for Esquire I should get it into
other hands...
[I just started re-writing that story by adding a green based CDS scam as a coda]
Walked/jogged through the Park today. Looks better than ever. I've even come to terms with the fences since my local diamond used to have too much broken glass and no grass. I could tell you some stories...
Wall Street put up a lot of cash (my father's classmate Richard Gilder a big chunk) and didn't privatize much. (Still can't understand why there are lots of free tennis courts, a bowling green, horse path, two ice rinks and a beach volleyball pit but only a couple of neglected hoops courts, no paddleball to speak of --a latin favorite at other parks).
Without it I would leave the City. Van Cortland in the Bronx is probably as beautiful, and underused.
Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Lloyds Banking Group Plc will receive 31.3 billion pounds ($51 billion) from the U.K. taxpayer in their second bailout.
The Treasury will inject 25.5 billion pounds into RBS, for a total of 45.5 billion pounds, making it the costliest bailout of any bank worldwide. Lloyds will raise 21 billion pounds from investors, with the government providing 5.8 billion pounds.
The rescue, which follows the 37 billion pounds the two lenders received last year, will bring the government closer to full ownership over RBS, while Lloyds will escape government control by raising money from institutional investors. In return for state aid, the banks will sell assets and accept limits on pay. The two banks said they won’t pay cash bonuses to workers earning more than 39,000 pounds a year.
The story is listed as news not opinion, but I don't think Lloyds has the "private" commitments yet. Wonder if they've insured themselves...
Hope all that discouraged banker "talent' doesn't come to New York. We were making some slight progress.
I also have a dumb question about glod. The IMF is selling gold in the market, Russia is and other nations are. This will crucify the dollar no?
apologies if this was posted earlier.
By Thomas Kutty Abraham and Kim Kyoungwha
Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- India, the world’s biggest gold consumer, bought 200 tons from the International Monetary Fund for $6.7 billion as central banks show increased interest in diversifying their holdings to protect against a slumping dollar.
The transaction, equivalent to 8 percent of world annual mine production, was the IMF’s first such sale in nine years and propels India to the ninth-biggest government owner globally, according to figures from London-based research company GFMS Ltd. The country previously held 358 tons, the data show. The news was a “surprise because everybody was talking about China being the buyer,” said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com.
“The fall in the U.S. dollar seems to be pushing all the central banks to strengthen their portfolio with gold,” said N.R. Bhanumurthy, professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in New Delhi. “Gold is a safe store of value compared to the U.S. dollar.”
Gold for immediate delivery was little changed at $1,059.72 an ounce at 5:41 p.m. in Singapore and was about $11 below its record $1,070.80 an ounce reached Oct. 14. India purchased the gold at an average price of about $1,045 an ounce, according to an IMF official on a conference call.
....Sustained Demand
“The most important thing is that people want gold even at these prices,” said Ghee Peh, head of mining research, with UBS AG in Hong Kong. “There’s good support for prices for now” from the IMF’s disposal of bullion, he said. .... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVn9hwIfhdyk&pos=7#
It was discussed upthread. I try not to trade on daily "news", but I've been trying to hedge exposure the dollar since Bear Stearns. I think China and Russia have also.
I don't know if the RBI takes physical delivery or paper.
I'm talking to myslef! lol. Yup RBS is a primary dealer.
The primary dealers form a worldwide network that distributes new U.S. government debt. For example, Daiwa Securities and Mizuho Securities distribute the debt to Japanese buyers. BNP Paribas, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and RBS Greenwich Capital (a division of the Royal Bank of Scotland) distribute the debt to European buyers. Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup account for many American buyers. Nevertheless, most of these firms compete internationally and in all major financial centers.
Nanoo^2: I also have a dumb question about glod. The IMF is selling gold in the market, Russia is and other nations are. This will crucify the dollar no?
Nanoo, this will just goose the parallel asset bubbles that have formed over the last six months to one year. Specifically metals and oil are being inflated by money trying to find a safe place to nap.
(edit: delete spurious article block)
Cat litter might be a safe store of value too. But there's not enough gold in the world to solve this problem. I expect parallel large-scale asset bubbles to inflate and pop, maybe not even at the same time. And then a recycle back to the dollar when stress gets too large.
In Sonoma County the jumbo market seems completely quiet.
Price at these sales volumes is NaN; not a number. Divide by zero.
I wonder how, without move-up buyers or some mass inflation in wages, jumbo-priced houses anywhere but serial bubble-towns* could ever sell.
= oil towns (Houston), government towns (D.C.)
Add in the declining demographic bulge of monied boomers trying to sell their second homes and there is significant price pressure downwards. I think houses within, say, 50% of the jumbo threshold are vulnerable to significant price drops.
I expect parallel large-scale asset bubbles to inflate and pop, maybe not even at the same time. And then a recycle back to the dollar when stress gets too large.
And thus a currency crisis in the making and that 'mother of all carry trades' unwinding? Evil Henry Paulson posted about Aramco changing facilities out of NYMEX, All these little bits adding up to something which is hidden from the peasants to prevent panic attacks?? I'm shocked too at the news of really rich Middle East countries having difficulties, like Dubai. I suppose they also bought into the paradigm in spades and now find themselves challenged like everyone else (maybe save China but who knows)... oil, gold, wheat...commodities at large in for a dose of reality sooner rather than later? I get confused as the relationships between commodities, $$s is quite perverse.
No idea whether the RBS deal affects the primary dealer relationship in any way. Ben doesn't want me to have that kind of information as it could spook markets.
I don't know if the British taxpayer will appreciate being told she must buy UST's if no one else does. Not that that could ever have been enforced against any foreign bank, whoever signed the papers. Wonder if the FED is holding TALF MBS from RBS...it's all just speculation. Still got my TBT hedge in my alpha soup bets.
I bet it won't affect it as they will reorganize and keep that unit sheltered for obvious reasons. If Europe follows suit, then we're gonna be talking some turkey. Then its the race to the bottom and who blinks first. A good friend and I have been discussing this for sometime, my bet is the UK leads everyone down but I'm no guru or zombie....
I don't wish hardship on Dubai, but they should be planting trees not towers. My father was invited to Saudi Arabia and was struck by how little wealth they displayed in architectural structures. We may have too many, especially in my concrete jungle, but as a country we've had a grain surplus forever. If we have to burn some of the corn to fuel the truck, maybe the farmers can claw back some wealth from the bankers.
I'll take good land and water as the basis for rebuilding an economy over any weight in gold. Oil's days are numbered.
There's also the demand side of "jumbo" RE market. If health care passes and more doctors are trained and work, the result will be more high end people to buy high end RE. Shouldn't this lessen the decline of top tier RE prices a little?
If health care passes and more doctors are trained and work
What makes you think the law of supply and demand will suddenly cease to function?
When the doctors' bonuses get out of proportion to their perceived value added, we'll train more bankers.
I'm willing to stomach the oversupply of doctors through mal-investment better than banker/homeowner welfare.
The market these days reminds me of Niven's stepping discs, and the mass swarming behavior people displayed when presented with the opportunity to herd.
It may be that in the market we've managed to connect with some long-dormant modality of swarming. Similar to the gregarious form of locusts.
In other news, how does CNBS stay in business running a grand total of 10 ads? No wonder they have to sell that steaming heap to a cable company. Serves 'em right. Put Joe on the help desk.
Maybe this is obvious, but I'm amazed that most people get freaked out by medical problems, especially the big C, they don't care how much it costs and they don't want a good doctor; they want the absolutely best doctor on the earth to treat them. (Although a separate question, how would they really know if their doctor is the "best"?)
They will also accept paying medical insurers absorbent mark ups as long as the treatment works. And medical people will get these fees even when the treatment doesn't work. The situation seems a little different from the usual supply and demand situation. Perception and fear matter.
No way
Speaking of a confused herd...
That's okay... markets love uncertainty.
They have the best drugs that money can buy after all...
I'm just amazed that the NAR keeps complaining ... when the number of sales and commissions are above normal levels. They were so spoiled during the bubble that they don't realize this is a pretty decent year.
The key for the economy is a recovery in single family investment (and also multifamily investment). These will pickup once the number of excess housing units is worked down.
best to all
It is back on, I just got an offer for a junk mail 5k loan from citi. I have not seen one of those in years.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
But that seems to be an ever evolving and increasing number does it not? Are we close to my 4.2m number yet?
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Hrm.
.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
I understand the relationship between these two statements, but I'm lacking a firm understanding about how that is suppose to happen with falling wages and rising UE and rising BK and falling social safety nets...
And Brokers' commissions are slightly above average (2009 was a solid year for agents).
I never realized one could stretch the definition of "investment" to include outrageous fees paid to parasitic middlemen. How ... err ... enlightening.
Anyone know where exactly I can find the absolute numbers for the broker commissions?
When did CR quit sleeping?
One of the new local subdivisions dropped their prices from $90k to $70k, for probably about a 1400 sqft house. They must have sold a few, since there has recently been a few more framed, with guys working.
This is super low-end though, even for this neighborhood.
I hope this won't be the entire recovery.
rsj: Honestly [student loans] really are forevah, evn more so than those darn diamonds.
the silence from higher-ed administrators with respect to student loan burdens is deafening. guess they're too busy raising tuition and raking in multi-million dollar salaries...
I haven't been reading this blog that long, but does CR ever take a vacation? Like several days without posting? I don't envy him the pressure of having to update this blog all the time.
In Phoenix Metro the best selling houses are $80,000. to $100,000. People want their tax credit but don't want any more debt than what the gov will help pay for. You can get a 3/2 rehabed, 1200 to 1400sq ft in a decent area for $100,000. now.
CR is a Bot financed by Goldman Sachs
Comrade Rally Monkey wrote:
The enemy of your enemy is your
's friend.
GS is not our enemy...
I personally have been to parties at homes sponsored by gs employess....they frequently have open bars.
Mod paperwork is in the house!!!
I haz bailout!!!
A 22% drop in my monthly nut!!!
No drop in principle, but a sweet drop in the interest rate to 3.75 fixed for the next 26 years.
Still underwater, but now I can join the big banks in extend and pretend!!!
W00T!
Now to sit back and wait until we get some inflation.
Someday this war's gonna end...
CR has probably installed T1 in his bankerdome just off the John Muir Trail running off geothermal energy near Devil's Postpile. He'll be posting even if only cockroaches are left to read the chart porn.
Comrade Rally Monkey wrote:
Umm... you also being visited by Xenu?
Good news AllenM
My plan is to be a "move down" buyer using the tax credit. Should cut the payments by 2/3rds.
You know how much house I can get here for how little now. We seem to be at 1998 prices.
okay then
Citizen AllenM wrote:
Getting a bailout... dropping a nut...
.
Seems apt.
AllenM
Are you going after the CCs next?
Get them to write some off maybe. Once you get all this done you should give lessons.
A better metric from NAR's point of view would be per-capita income.
Pay someone $1mn one year, and $999,999 the next and they will complain more than if they had been paid $1mn and just lost a dollar bill during the year. Not to mention a lot of people became realtors, or started websites aimed at self-serve, because it had been such a lucrative field so there is more competition for that decent year of money. It could also be more work with the agency-only model of mortgage origination, but non-agency was insignificant a decade ago so that's probably not a justified complaint -- especially given the relaxed attitude at agencies today compared to one decade ago. Maybe it's just the adjustment from a credit-flush lifestyle to the self-funded household model. The realtors I know of certainly make a point of having a car leased for 3 years which is intended to impress clients. Maybe it says more about how the government is spending money than it does about what realtors feel they need
Congrats, AllenM!
Comrade Rally Monkey wrote:
Okay, that explains a lot.
Yep AllenM
You got some
. Good for you.
Hope lots of people get their
too. Seems to be the only way to stay even in this economy.
The Federal government will just buy up the trillion dollar student loans outstanding and .monetize it. Those student loans for 150k won't look so bad when a 4year of college costs 350k
CR is a Bot financed by Goldman Sachs
I always wondered if our deflationist who cannot be named actually worked for The Fed.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Nothing wrong with that approach. Realtors know had to make a commitment and stand by it.
Great news, AllenM.
BTW, do public employees in your field get a black mark with their employer after walking away from a financial obligation?
sportsfan wrote:
Black mark? Sounds like politician material to me! Bold! Risk-taker! Maverick (In honor of AZ)
Okay, that explains a lot.
lol
Citizen AllenM
Could you tell us the rough time line of events? The big holdup with HAMP seems to have been getting all the necessary documents in, and I'm wondering around when we might expect the peak of the approval bulge to pass, which could then be used to guesstimate how many modifications are approved.
EHP, I also get the impression that the commission dollars are not evenly distributed. For example, there's a two man team in my area who seem to have a lock on FHA financing bank REO's. They're selling 75 houses a month.
this xenu is fascinating!
In AZ we get extra points for not living in our cars. This place is a total mess.
sn,
I have a
reply to you about local Australian factors in the previous thread.
yagij wrote:
No, seriously, a lawyer, for example, could lose his or her license for walking away while having the ability to pay.
Depending on the type of public employment, that could be an issue.
(Yes, I realize you were joking.)
Oh, I have plenty left to work on- the 2nd on my rental is next, followed by the first.
So far underwater that I will pay only 20 cents on the dollar to clear, and then I want 3% on the first.
Should cut my monthly by 60%.
The credit cards are pretty low already- so I will sit on them unless I get laid off, if that happens I will get positively medieval on them.
So, go ahead and lay me off, I will crush my creditors!!
Yeeha!
Riding the credit bomb down like Col. Kong!!!
Someday this war's gonna end...
Those charts make one thing very clear: any recent perceived 'uptick' is well within the realm of random noise.
Walk away? I am still paying them all that I borrowed.
Just at a much more reasonable rate, mind you.
I still have lost a large pile of money if I sell or walk away.
My employer is essentially walking away from contracts right and left- just search T gen and broken contract.
Government in Arizona is the biggest deadbeat- we are essentially going to the pawnshop to keep the lights on right now.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Citizen allenM congrats!! Also you have the rights to a neato name for a game for htis decade---Crush Your Creditors!! TM
Wholesome fun for the whole family on those back-to -basic entertainment nihgts.
Non HAMP
Jumbo loan.
Spouse dinked around with them starting in Feb.
Got blown off four times. Still made all payments- was even told to miss payments to start process- refused to ding credit unnecessarily.
I wrote a letter Aug 24th that said I will walk away unless we get some action pronto- addressed to high mgmt.
Got assigned to executive mortgage team, and then it just took two months with no more lost paperwork.
That is all.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Don't just ask for a pony. Ask for a boat. "Me upon my pony on my boat..."
Question for the board.
Where did all the condo oversupply come from, if multi-family Residential investment has been so low for so long? (Looking at the purple line on CR's chart.)
Am I missing something here?
AlleyCat wrote:
That is one of my fav songs ever!!!
a lawyer, for example, could lose his or her license for walking away while having the ability to pay.
i wonder what the suddenly Keynesian, ex-"law and economics" judge and scholar Richard Posner's take on this is. he legitimized the efficient breach.
ozajh wrote:
There were allot of apartments converted to condos.
Investment in multi-family structures is down because of the 'credit freeze' but also they could be a bad investment as renters can get smoking deals on single family homes so why live in (or purchase) an apartment building and deal with the high turnover and vacancy rate problems...rental over supply gives renters more choices and better rental rates...
I ain't no lawyer- and if they disbarred every lawyer in AZ who ever walked away from a mortgage, there would be a shortage of lawyers- tons of them did it during the early 90s when the S&Ls went bust.
Of course the ethics bunch likes to scare you, but look at all the lawyers screwing the common man and say they are really held to a higher standard. Put it this way, I sometimes read the disciplinary reports, and they are mighty lenient with their own.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Friday the 13th next week. Anyone afraid of Bernanke waking you up in the middle of the night, emptying your wallet while saying "ki ki ki ma ma ma"
AllenM, yes I understand you will pay the full amount due, just with at a different rate and maturity date. I was just curious if there would be any ramifications with your employer since I understood that to be a government entity of some sort.
By "T gen" do you mean Translational Genomics Research Institute? If so, what was broken?
Basel Too wrote:
Poser's opinion? What's ok for me is not ok for you?
AllenM,
Is it possible for you to say who holds your loan, and whether or not they were the original provider?
(You're about to get bombarded with queries, I suspect. Maybe CR would allow you to put all the details you can reveal into a Guest Post.)
Today's coincident economic indicators only confirm what leading ones foretold already ~9 months ago. And the latter ones now foretell even stronger growth 9 months from the here and now. I hope nobody is foolish enough to bet on a renewed downturn here. Are there any bets out there when the last bear straw, the UE numbers will start turning around. My best gues is either December or January will be the definite turnaround.
MfO
Thanks, josap. You already know I think you're swell. I'm not much into country, but I love Lyle even when he is country.
Basel Too wrote:
I don't know. Can a corporation be found guilty of moral turpitude? I think not.
Morals only exist at the human level and, as we all know, not all persons are human.
Same maturity- 26 years left to run at the new 3.75% rate.
sportsfan wrote:
Uh, no ramifications. I can go broke and they wouldn't care. I can't tell you how much lunchroom advice I have given to folks getting divorced about bk- state employees here are poor.
Tgen is owed about 30 million from a gov contract that we are deadbeating on right now.
We will pay someday, but not today!
Someday this war's gonna end...
ozajh -- thanks for the reply. everything you posted was news to me. very interesting.
in other news:
FT.com / Global Economy - IMF sells 200 tonnes of gold to India central bank
I've been discovered! Oh well ...
best to all
Citizen AllenM wrote:
Not the public Tgen? It's nowhere on the balance sheet.
Mork
will you hang around this time or do you only talk to yourself? From the last time I responded, I'm only curious as to hear your reasoning on what happens next. LEI aren't enough because they have been increasing in divergence when they ought to have been narrowing
Um, the now $3 stock with tons of cash run by V.P.
Original provider, and holder of the bag- may have been securitized, but the primary was Bank Investment Co.
The details are very plain- I will post after paperwork is signed and returned.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Mork from Ork wrote:
Then why is the Obama administration considering another round of stimulus?
Do your models compute why they think they need this package?
Hmmm?
Or are you just datadriving and praying the models work today?
Someday this war's gonna end...
btw, the latest twist in the GM TARP ordeal is sure to make YLSP go nuts. What's the deal with the $1.1B purchase of a Delphi parts unit, using a taxpayer loan, just sell it off?
U.S. to Allow G.M. to Use Federal Loans to Invest in Delphi - NY Times
The federal government has granted General Motors permission to use $2.8 billion in borrowed money to help its former parts division, the Delphi Corporation, G.M. said in a regulatory filing on Monday.
G.M. said it received $1.7 billion last month from a escrow account financed by the Treasury Department to buy an interest in the reorganized Delphi, which spent four years mired in Chapter 11 protection before successfully exiting last month.
It received $1.1 billion to spend on its acquisition of Delphi’s global steering business, which G.M. has said it planned to sell.
"Stimulus" has become a bad word, like "tax". Why don't they just say they want to spend $700 billion on things the public wants and needs which the market is not providing (make-work jobs are not such a thing).
Just search the arizona republic and see the details of the lawsuit in their full glory.
AllenM, thanks for the info. BTW, I had no plans to do business with that public entity, but I have been following the stories about the problems there. Some day there will opportunities there for the taking.
But then, as you say, "Someday this war's gonna end... "
I don't have a time clock on either of those events.
In my co-ordinates, it's old people who can't handle the yard work anymore. There was a short supply here not long ago. Now they can't sell their houses to move into maintenance free places. It's especially hard on those folks and families who need to sell to move directly into assisted living facilities.
The GDP Mirage - BusinessWeek
Here's a sobering sign that companies are robbing the future to pay for short-term profits: Over the past year, U.S. employment of scientists and engineers—the people who create the next generation of products and make the U.S. more competitive over the long term—has fallen by 6.3%, according to a BusinessWeek tabulation of unpublished data. Yet overall employment has fallen only 4.1%. "There are really bright people who are struggling to find a job," says Josh Albert, managing director at Klein Hersh International, an executive search firm for life scientists.
OT: Save The Children!
Half of US kids will get food stamps, study says
Snarking aside, Dad & Mom are broke/unemployed/tapped out. The government is digging a hole to China to speed up the process of procuring Hu's USDs. Who do these academics think will "protect children" when the entire society is broke? More importantly, who is going to give them their next grant?!
Citizen AllenM wrote:
oh, I thought you meant the penny stock TGEN. Like we need to turn into a penny stock board.
Come to think of it, many stocks may be pennies in the future.
re: condo oversupply
the distribution of condos is much more concentrated, while SFHs are spread across the country. that would be my guess for the difference in scale conflicting with oversupply.
perhaps also more flipping on condos, as the average actual cost to build is lower than that of a SFH.
Nope, a quasi private institute here in Az.
Well
the family is going to bed, and so am I.
Bailouts are the American way!
Someday this war's gonna end...
Good luck Allen.
Does Dick Fuld have a black mark?
His company lost the most in history. Corporate BK allowed them to walk away.
Big law firms dissolve just to get out of a lease when rents deflate. Should all the partners be disbarred?
A theoretical only loosely based on Allen Ms coup.
Old:
Balance $200k, Rate 6.95%, Term 26y, Payment $1220/mo
New:
Balance $200k, Rate 3.75%, Term 26y, Payment $1000/mo
Assume the property is worth $180k and value remains constant. How long until LTV drops to 100%?
Ans: 4 years to get to zero.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
I'd love to see that day. Trapping Big Law partners within the confines of The Law is like herding greased cats on crack, err... catnip.
yogi
What about AIG or GE or Citigroup or the Federal Reserve w/ Maiden Lane I, II, III
we must be careful about referring to which company has lost the most money in history these days
Good nite guys, work is over for the day and voting is tomrorrow in VA so see ya see ya!
To paraphrase a question somebody posed to you yesterday, "what do they call the Wright B model on Ork?"
There is no "oversupply". That's nonsense. There are only owners unwilling to accept a loss. Oversupply is rotting fruit or fish. When the condos have rotted before their time, you can use "oversupply".
Denninger's latest rant on Bair misses the mark. First of all, he doesn't even go to the FDIC site and bother to read her speech in total. Secondly, he once again fails to realize that the regulators, are all under Congressional oversight and will get booted out if they, or Sheila do anything that is against the will of Congress. It's not the will of Congress to fail a ton of banks, especially when everyone considers this situation a financial crises that is temporary.
I had a chance to listen to the recent TARP COP panel. The focus was on HAMP, and small business/small banking loans. It sounds like the Treasury is going to embark on a TARP-like program for community banks to help get small business lending going. Treasury guy up there was talking that they were going to ask the small/community banks for a business plan and show their intent prior to giving them TARP money. I don't know if they've already announced further details; but that was his intent, there's going to be some program that gives help thorugh the small/community banks, since those banks lend to small businesses. However; there will be strings and they will ensure that the money goes back into the economy is lent and there will be metrics to show this.
The other interesting thing was that Elizabeth Warren absolutely killed him on the HAMP program and how many people will go from the temporary loan modification to permanent loan modifications and then how many of those permanent loans won't re-default in 5 years. It sounded like he didn't have a model for how many of these temporary modifications (which were 3 months, but now have been extended to 5 months) were converting to permanent. He kept dodging the question, and she kept repeating, "You guys, have to have models. You've been looking at data for months!" It was like 10 minutes of him not divulging what their models were telling... and basically he just said, their goal is that 75% of the people on the HAMP make it to permanent loan modification... but it sounds like the expected success rate is 50% to start out and they will work to get 75%.
So is Treasury reimbursing those who take write-downs on HAMP or something? There was some talk about the 120k per foreclosure cost... how does this work in places where homes aren't even worth that much?
The way I understand it, there's not an oversupply, merely a lack of motivated buyers.
sdtfs wrote:
So, IOW, there's plenty of unmotivated buyers?
There are a number of Congressional committe meetings I've converted to MP3 for my own personal use and I promise I'll put up something on rapidshare so that others can hear the meetings if they so choose. Two more I want to capture from this month are this Senate Banking committee on Dark Pools and market structure, as well as the Financial Regulation meeting from the House Oversight committee.... so expect me to link something to rapidshare in a couple of days... just in case others are interested (GPO site lags by 8-10 months or so... so whats the poin tof waiting for the printed transcript?).
yogi
There are more homes than households. There is an oversupply until that is remedied by average household sizes shrinking, and population growth. Not enough capital to buy the home + pay the ongoing costs to be used as vacation homes either. Price does help spur household formation, but there is an oversupply to which it will take years for the market to react to once it gets non-manipulated signals from current prices.
A bid using hypothetical comment profiles to convince 'defending the basic status quo' types to break on through to the other side of 'the sick and tired' and ask for the monetary system, endless bailout/stimuli/endless expensive wars to be STOPPED...(All caps for occasional emphasis.)
Status quo defenders of more of the same:
~focus on trivia & minutiae
~isolationist (isolate a small problem and make it the Big Problem)
~use a lot of anecdotal conversation or idle conversation that has no apparent 'solutions' or 'new ideas'
(But of course idle chat or banter is typical on econ blogs discussion topics and threads but I'm referring to strategies maybe to argue or invalidate the 'sick and tired' rants where people had had it and want it BS to just stop and call for civil action!)
~belligerance
~silent treatment of certain topics and criticism of the Powers That Be
VARIOUS EXAMPLES OF ABOVE:
'Yeah that Neel Kashkari from GS is the worst kind of Squidcreature!!!! Yuk!!!'
'Yeah...that GS, like Taibbi says, IS THE Evil Squid...horrible, HORRIBLE...I tell you...just the absolute scum of the Earth!!!'
'Gee...I just saw three homeless men eating a dead squirrel that they cooked with a match and a pile of newspaper in a shopping cart...the World Is About To End As We Know It...Oh My Gawd!!!!
Yes, those rich foreigners, like those Canadians and,...uh, well I forget, but all those potential buyers of Florida condos.
EHP you and I know full well AIG will pay back the taxpayer with a profit.`
I'm still going with dark horse ICE Trust as the baddest loser of all time.
The Reserve Bank of India, or RBI, is buying 200 tonnes of gold from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), nearly half of what the fund plans to sell.
Jesse's Café Américain: Reserve Bank of India Buys 200 Tonnes of the IMF's Gold
pfizer is in the news promoting the obama healthcare spending package, for everyone still hoping he wasn't a sell out like every other
not the first time for this case, or the only lament but it's topical
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Non-manipulated price signals. I think my head just
Until there are no homeless children or veterans, I will not use the term oversupply of housing. I don't care who has title and who pays the taxes.
Disclosure: I'm not currently short homebuilders, but I might be soon.
shill wrote:
Someone help me read between the lines. Is the IMF liquidating its
positions because it needs the currency? Are the BRIC folks getting the 
in exchange for their cooperation with the IMF's goals? With all of the goldbug hating on the 'net, why are the big boys moving around so much 
in such large quantities? See London -> HK move. IMF's liquidation. etc.
EVERY time I see statistics of children who are either homeless, living on food stamps or receiving free meals at school, I am shocked and saddened. It's pretty bad when I am grateful to be a child of depression era orphans. That sounds bad. I love them to death and have learned so much from them. Maybe our childrens' children will benefit like many of us have. I just hope to heck that we don't have that flood of orphans that my parent's generation experienced.
It sounds like the Treasury is going to embark on a TARP-like program for community banks to help get small business lending going.
recently had a coffee shop that's been in business 20 years close its doors. reason? bank wouldn't loan $4K to replace a stove that malfunctioned. The $4K loan wasn't the killer, the bank wasn't that shaky. problem was that the small business didn't have the requisite documentation to qualify for a loan; never needed that level of documentation before. easy access to credit cards and the home ATM created very sloppy business
personal green shoots. got back home yesterday and business at the car wash is booming. turns out several of the new-fangled laser washes closed down, driving business my way. now i just need a silver quarter sorter. thanks for the poster that pointed out that pre-1965 quarters have ~$3 in silver content. over the years, i've collected pre-1950s just for novelty's sake, and have about 20 pickle jars worth....
well yeah
the price is set and it takes time for demand + supply to realign. and sometimes the price signal is manipulated by intermediate hoarding or liquidation
that's how I see most markets anyways
read in the Hockey News profile of Shane Doan, who through his volunteer work learned the average age of homeless people in Phoenix AZ was 9 years old. I don't know if that is a real statistic, but the reference was to a cool school that aimed to reduce barriers to homeless families/children from attendance (showers, washer/dryer on site. supplies provided. most kids there are in similar situations)
I must be insane but I don't understand how a coffee shop that has been in one location for 20 years would need to borrow money to survive.
Twenty pickle jars? My God you're rich! You know how much Black Star will pay for a pickle jar?
yagij...follow the money
or in this case follow the 
Basel is your business subject to competition from hand washers?
The Political Battle lines...
Many of the 'sick & tired' of the public tend to blame out-of-control or unresponsive government or the entrenched, unaccountable central monetarists (bankers) for the disintegrating clustermess.
The status quo defenders who promote or tolerate more of the same failed government over-spending policies (& 'fear tactic' increased stimulus spending sales pitches) tend to blame maybe the 'sick and tired' (& indebted and/or insolvent) for their own mess or blame some trivial or lower level aspect of government or monetary policy for the random, accidental, or Black Swan cluster f**k...
shill wrote:
No that is where I am lost. Does the IMF really need the money, and they have no other way to get fiat except through liquidating their PM reserves? That is bad sh^t crazy unless they think they are cashing out on a high and will get it back on a low? I don't mean to be dense, but I really don't think I understand the dynamic playing out here.
yogi
you could house literally all the homeless, and there would still be supply leftover
what's more, even if you dropped the prices to zero tomorrow, the houses would not all be filled immediately. Utilities, taxes, maintenance, transporation... not to mention all the other considerations deciding where one chooses to live. it's an over supply.
I am absolutely sympathetic to the point you brought up, but the proper way to describe it is a waste.
a waste of money on an expensive housing policy, while neglecting all the important areas of government's responsibility
culture of debt and easy access to credit. "Extend and pretend" has been on Main Street far longer than Wall Street.
TheState.com 404
Sales had been down by double digits in the past few months. But [owner Thomas] Meihls said the final blow for the coffee shop was his inability to get a bank loan to replace a $4,000 stove that did not pass inspection from the city fire marshal.
"A couple of years ago, they'd call you, 'Can I give you money?'" Meihls said. "This year, I need money, and it's just, 'No. Don't even come in the office and fill out the application.' "
yagij wrote:
Basically, yes and yes, but the real issue is that they have been talking about selling one particular batch of 400 tonnes for many, many years. I cheer the day they sold half of it. I wish they would sell the other half tomorrow, perhaps to China, so I don't have to hear about this any more.
As for the need, they do lend in fiat, you know.
No, India's central bank has decided to sell 200 gold-tonnes of dollars to the IMF.
like everything else, i'm sure there's some substitution towards hand washing, but it's pretty surprising how many apartments or HOAs prohibit hand washing. not to mention, it's a pain in the butt. additionally, people are skimping in other ways first. for example, not washing for as long or not getting the foam brush. but based on the numbers, i think substitution is working in my favor.
i guess i provide an inferior good.
But the IMF is not being paid in Dollars??...but will agree something does not pass the smell test.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Not to be a hater, but what exactly is the goal for educating these homeless children? I know something has to be done, but we have no quality employment opportunities for HS grads as it is. Would these children be prepped for university studies? Who will pay for college? How will it work out if they remain transient? How will they affect the children already suffering who weren't so far behind the 8-Ball of Life?
.
I applaud the effort and the goal, and for the record, I may just be having a dense moment tonight. As times get tougher and resources get tighter, do we fight even harder to ensure no child is left behind, or is it since children are left behind, we must try not to add to the pack?
Tons of cash??
Hasn't there been talk of more big write-downs coming for the excremental nickname.
(Maybe you're part of them, in fact.
)
sportsfan wrote:
I know but I would think Benny could just print out a few extra billions for the IMF and be done with it. It would be like selling your PM stash when you still have other assets or a credit card or Uncle Joe.
I hear you Alley Cat.
"Foreman says these jobs are going boys and they ain't coming back to your hometown, your hometown..."
It's the rustbelt in the 80's for RRE builders.
yagij,
I don't know those details, name is Thomas J. Pappas School for homeless children.
Are you being facetious? If not, I'm willing to venture a few guesses
Basel Too wrote:
That is very sad, especially for a business located in the capitol and near the university.
I'm shocked the city wouldn't help . . . unless the owner just wants to throw in the towel.
Re TARP for community banks:
2 local banks started 3-4 years ago...$78M and $154M in assets
So far in 09, increased deposits $17.9M and $16.2M
Increased loans $10.6M and $8.7M
They have the capital to lend and have reserved at 1.4% and 1.94%
No borrowers...
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
The cynic in me is thinking along the lines of keeping them off the streets and out of trouble as much as possible until they are adults and move into the Big Kids' Institution Rotation. It wasn't until I found myself in a group of teachers that I was hit with the idea that year-round school is more of a way to keep the "bad kids" off the streets longer than helping children learn and grow. Of course, the talking points would never touch that line of thinking publicly.
.
If you are talking about a boarding school approach to education, I can understand that process. Provide a home for those who have no home and give them the chance to learn and make something of themselves. If it is just a way to help them return to a public school without risking the stigma of being transients, good luck with that. I was heckled for not wearing the right kind of shoes and came from a good family. I cannot imagine what it would be like trying to fit in with a real hard background.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
yagij wrote:
Not exactly.
MF to Proceed with Limited Sales of Gold
This has literally been planned for years.
YLSP wrote:
I've been struggling to understand what is going on, but from the following Forbes article, it looks like whatever it is is costing taxpayers money...
Rising U.S. mortgage rates brake bond prepayments - Forbes.com
So HAMP is essentially a pre-screen and buyout of agency and non-agency loans into Fannie/Freddy pools?
yagij
I think you are expecting the homeless children to be thieving, drug using, runaways.
A lot of them might be 10 year olds mostly living in a car with their parents who lost their jobs and house
Even if they were runaways by choice, they might have good reasons and I'm going to assume any kid in that school is there of their own free will because it sounds like it is oversubscribed.
Being homeless does not indicate they are problem children to put it simply
The folks at the IMF must not think gold is going to appreciate much more, hey? Not sure I'd agree.
Please don't be either a hater or have any more dense moments. Have you seen the studies where PUBLIC prep schools admit students by lotteries instead of previous academic success and have equally terrific results? You touched a nerve. Just because you're homeless doesn't mean you're worthless.
Good night. Meow.
Feckless Ness wrote:
I can't remember the last time I got into a pissing contest with an elephant
Ehp, I know we have too many houses by just about any intelligent measure. You know I support more central planning of the aggregate number of houses built than we have now. My preferred mechanism would be forcing the losses from the bubble on the toxic paper holders.
The long term damage from mal-investment in houses will be real. Economic policy is a matter of semantic framing of the issue. I insist that a "housing crisis" is not enough shelter, especially for innocent children or unlucky people willing and able to work.
C'mon, EHP. I think that's something you'd remember.
Any small business that has been in business for 25 years should have 4K sitting around. It's like the banks paying out all the money in bonuses. (I'm so jaded now, I can't tell if this was a snark or not.)
Feckless Ness
An elephant's stream would be powerful enough to knock you over, make you hit your head on the ground, and then forget that you were ever in a pissing contest with an elephant
Anyone know if Delaware's tax-dodge-friendly regulation ever comes up as a topic for the local public? I'm pretty sure every other top haven's citizens are informed about the rules
EHP, don't know much about an elephant's stream.
Tax-dodge-friendly regulation is the reason that State exists. It is not something that is questioned. (Edit: but really it's more about corporate governance and liability issues than about taxes.)
But props for them for being the first to ratify the Constitution.
Yagij: whether you believe no child should be "left behind" is your business.
Whether you think homeless children have the same potential if given an equal shot is also your business, but more open to rational/statistical inquiry.
All I'll say now is that "free" City College of New York at one time had more Nobel Prize laureates than any other institution.
I'm biased, since I believe the greatest genius the US has ever produced was homeless for many years. (Ask a Scandinavian whom they think is the greatest US genius...)
Coming to in a puddle of elephant piss didn't jog your memory?
I'm just wondering why the IMF would sell if it didn't have to. I don't know how the IMF works, but that yellow stuff is shiny and pretty and somebody at IMF must be drooling and saying "my precious" and not wanting to sell. They must have analysts who think the price will continue to climb. So what's the incentive to sell now? Or am I
?
Don't worry Yagij, I'm on your side. Please tell me which side it is.
Feckless Ness wrote:
What was the incentive for Gordon Brown to sell England's gold at the absolute bottom?
Their stove broke down and they didn't buy the extended warranty.
Didn't that ever happen to you? If you have the warranty, you call up Circuit City and they will bring you a new one right over.
The IMF / central banks sell gold when there is turmoil to stem a run out of currency and into assets, which would reduce the effectiveness/control of central banks' monetary policies. They did it during 1997/1998, and the introduction of the Euro among others. They also sell it to raise money without depressing a given currency
From the story it sounds like they were already losing money. Then when they needed $4k more for the stove, they decided to just cut their loses instead of sinking another $4k into a money losing business. The really sad stories are the ones about the small business owners who max out all their credit cards trying to keep their business afloat when they should have just let go months before.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
I don't get the connection, TJ. Except to say that the Shrub refilled the U.S.'s oil reserves at the absolute top, price-wise.
also
they have enough gold on hand to sell enough covered calls into the market to knock the stuffing out of anyone, or even just by renting the gold to someone else who does the same. very insidious even before JPM took a 78% market share in gold trading with HSBC taking up the rest
Feckless Ness wrote:
No connection, just that authorities make boneheaded financial moves for political reasons.
p.s.: The SPR wasn't "re-filled", it was simply a continuation of the long-term program that filled at a specified rate regardless of price.
If a small business doesn't use its leverage to renegotiate a lease or borrow money against 20 years of goodwill or savings, then I don't have too much sympathy either.
The IMF would seemingly be acting to keep I from teaming up with RC in calling for a new reserve currency. Haven't heard anything from B, but game theory says bricks are stronger than paper bazookas.
Do I understand this correctly - India is buying gold from the IMF to get rid of U.S. dollars?
My BIL bought into a coffee shop with not much record keeping, I told my sister it was losing money. Why did I say this? Because in my experience with closing down small businesses, when you think you're growing or making money, it's a pleasure to do the books. When you dread keeping the books,...it's because you know what it's going to look like.
At around $1053, that 12.97 million ounces (403.3 tonnes) is worth about $13.6 billion today, or more than twice what it was worth when the sale was first proposed.
Oxtail wrote:
Actually the really sad stories are guys who took HELOCs out on their homes to keep empty buildings current on the debt before losing them anyway.
Well, since rich is here I'd also say that perhaps more of their citizens are thinking of wearing a few more bracelets as a hedge against the future. Or perhaps the Indian bank needs to replenish their stores?
sdtfs wrote:
I cannot think of a better way for the government in India to display its strength (and wisdom) to its citizens. If this were being done solely for domestic political consumption, it would be a brilliant stroke.
Jesse's
Maybe someone will book a bonus on the appreciation, eh? Who taxes the IMF's capital gains...
One parting shot and then I'm off to bed. Sure would like to know who Mork from Ork is shilling for. (No offense to comrade shill.) MfO's profile shows 9 whole days on Hoocoodanode. Surely kcoop or Nemo's monkey or one of our other IT types could spider-bot back to MfO's URL and ID him. I'm guessing he's one of Timmay's.
Feck, it's belived that MfO is the ECRI business cycle dude.
U.S. Construction Prospect [sic] Brighten
India has a lot of leftover money from it's policy of neutralizing speculative capital inflows
instead of keeping those reserves in USTs, they are keeping it in gold which through rent pays a higher interest rate
at the same time they are 'doing their part' to fund the IMF so it can loan money to Pakistan and keep it from imploding, among other clients
at $6.7bn, it's a small deal probably intended as a stepping stone in the world of optics
maybe they are even trying to support the domestic jewelery industry somehow
I don't know
Perusing the news on health-care I noticed that the Republicans idea for affordable health-care is pools for people with pre-existing conditions.
I had to look into one of those in California a few years ago due to a pre-existing condition. $1000 for me or $1500 for myself and my spouse.
Yep, another "affordable" health-care solution there.
sn,
The other thing I should have mentioned is that in Australia property taxes are usually levied on the land value without regard to the structure(s) on the land. (The word used here is 'improvements'.)
The unintended consequence - any Georgists out there please take note - is that governments have a massive incentive to raise land values (and keep them raised).
On the flip side Australia has vast expanses of pretty ordinary agricultural land, and a vocal lobby in rural areas to keep taxes low. The agriculturalists don't, however, object to huge windfall profits from land sales after re-zoning.
So, we tend to see fairly strict regulations but a ready political ear for development proposals.
That said, property taxes here seem to me to be much lower than in parts of the US. My brother pays about $1500 a year on a house valued at over $600K.
Perhaps this is because things like public education are administered at the State level (and most welfare at the Federal level).
Jonathan wrote:
Did you see that PK gave props to Mish for discrediting ECRI's bullishness?
Awww, killjoy. I want something much more cloak and dagger!
Mork lives with Sebastian in a rental unit owned by the dude in the Inland Empire who kept on carping about deflationistas washing up on the rocky shores.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
I don't believe anyone does. The unrealized appreciation belongs to its member countries.
I have heard, though, that the IMF tends to 1099 its executives and directors.
back off
I like Sebastian. Not for his viewpoints, but how he would be true to himself and engage others
"I have heard, though, that the IMF tends to 1099 its executives and directors. "
Does turbo-tax accept those types of forms?
when americans really start to hurt
when all hopium seems to be lost
when the tax base that supports social security and
the military industrial complex begins to melt like the north pole
when the roads are made more of pot holes than asphalt
when people start choosing to turn off lights and put on winter coats in their house
to conserve a little money for food
then... and only then
may we hear the people banter about that infamous word
that word that signifies the last desperate hope of drowning proles pawns and discarded working class
ta...ta...tar....tarra...tarri...tarriffs
but you shall have none for your masters have decided
and besides it matters not because soon
very soon
the elite will have no need of you
for digitized and robotic production processes will replace even skilled employees and more
even prostitutes
hopefully, at least the occupation of warrior will be left to you
placing your life on the line to protect the imperium which grinds you under the heel
ehp,
come on, sebastian could be a hoot sometimes. I actually miss him, he was good natured and could razz back and forth a bit.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
He was a good sport who stuck to his guns.
According to this, the IMF holds no physical gold reserves. Anyone know differently?
The Great Depression of 2006: US to Sell Gold Reserves
have some halloween candy. it will cheer you up
poic wrote:
I don't use it myself, but I understand there have been malfunctions in years past.
TJ wrote:
Yes, I sure did. The difficult thing is that there does seem to be some kind of recovery going on. Even if it is stimulus led. Nice that PK reads Mish. Must make him choke with Mish's bad attitude to state employees...
I'm really interested to see and hear how people think things will develop, bullish or not. I did notice that cash held by the TBTF is increasing hand over fist, like 20% increases QoQ. It's hard for me to understand where the liquidity is coming from to drive stocks up, if the banks are sitting on increasingly large piles of USD...
yogi
member central banks to the imf just keep it all in their own vaults, and on their books record it as a separate account available on demand to the imf, and for the imf to call on that money the member central bank must give its assent. the imf is just a formal structure for central banks to operate independently in cooperation as I understand it
1 currency now -yogi
i have read the same..imf holds little or no gold
but physical gold is pledged to it and held on behalf of the imf by the bigger member nations
imf irrational monetary fund
aka international #other puckers
The interesting thing is that short of bankerdome eventually Sebastian will be right. His methods will start working again when the economy resumes operating normally. That was his only serious error; believing this was a normal recessionary cycle.
Jonathan wrote:
Keynesian policies can only work when the recession is psychological and not balance sheet driven. They bought themselves a temporary spike and that's all they'll get.
Impossible Missions Force?
YouTube - Mission: Impossible Opening Montage 1
So how much you want to wager that the FED has counted their share of the 400 tons more than once on the books?
FED GC Aguilar was just asked under oath if they had all the glod they claimed. He hesitated before saying yes. That pause was priceless.
The sincere but wrong keep us honest. The shills who don't care keep us fighting.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
That blogger doesn't know 'for sure' either. It's not like the IMF publishes the locations of its vaults.
If you want to believe the blogger's statement that the IMF has no physical gold, all I can say is that it could be out on lease. With that much physical, why wouldn't an owner want to make a return on holding it?
If you then believe that just creates paper gold, let me direct to the various ETFs who have taken paper gold to a whole new level.
So the 'real' question is does the RBI demand physical delivery or does it take another FRN piece of paper co-signed by the IMF?
Note to self: IMF is selling 200 tonnes of Gold to India for $1,045 an ounce. Note timing, quantity, and price.
my recollection is that sebastian denied the coming recession all thru 2006 and 07....and even more than 3 months into it
i bet him 50$ on these pages , publicly...a trip to the tip jar at CR that Bills prediction of december 08 as the start date was correct
sebastian publicly called me a liar saying he wouldnt take the bet because even if he was right, i would go back on my word and not pay up
i took that as an insult
to prove him wrong i immediately donated 50 to CR and posted the paypal receipt in the comments
i challenged him to do the same and he refused
sebastian and his so called model wright B ? is that what it was called...never did face reality
TJ wrote:
Sounds reasonable to me. Real recoveries seem like they often start when people stop hiding and start borrowing again, both to consume, and to start and expand businesses. And at some GDP growth delta, the process 'lights off' and becomes self-sustaining.
I'm sure that's what the $787 billion was intended to do.
sportsfan wrote:
Many ETFs are backed by swaps collateralized with random financial assets and the faith that counterparties will be able to cover their pledges, while they charge ongoing fees and make no guarantees on any slippage. Futures / paper gold is much better than etf non-gold gold
Jonathan, did you see the latest ContraryInvestor piece? The first two charts illustrate the massive & ongoing credit destruction we're experiencing. There's no green shoots to be found in that data -- none.
Global deflationary collapse with hyperinflation headfake = dollar up & gold down?
merchants of fear wrote:
Read a recent article that states a headfake always precedes such a major move. Had some interesting charts & data to support it, too.
And why not pledge it to a whole bunch of suckers... Are they all going to call at once?
And when they all call at once, "Sorry, it's at Fort Knox. We don't have those keys. Sorry, the window's closed now..."
The problem with recovery this time is that recoveries occur when people take advantage of opportunity. Between credit and outsourcing and regulation this time there is going to be a lot less opportunity to go around.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
I don't believe the Fed owns any gold, but rather that the gold reserves of the U.S. are owned by the Treasury, with a small part being allocated to the Mint on an annual basis.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
mock turtle wrote:
I never did get an explanation of what the wright model B was supposed to be.
mock glad you stayed- don't miss him... although
's advocates are fun.
sportsfan wrote:
That's not goodwill: Whoever has the gold, makes the rules.
maybe he just didn't like paypal? I still have not given them my trust yet
the whole point I was trying to make was that I don't support squelching dissenting opinions. I think it's fair to use Sebastian as a symbolic inverse hoocoodanode sentiment
If I only wanted to hear what would happen, it would be a lonely community. Could just use a mirror and do that by video conference.
So long as people are consistent, and willing to participate in a dialogue/polite argument then I have no qualms. Spammers are in the former, and disruptively rude people are in the latter.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Never quite thought of it that way, but I would agree that ETF paper gold is a lower quality paper than other forms of paper gold. Wow, paper gold that's not worth the paper it's not printed on. That's a whole new level.
EHP
how many homeless children have you known in your lifetime... answer, I bet, zero.
I've know about a half dozen and their development curve wasn't something you'd wish on
your enemy... just sayin'.
Thanks, will take a look.
Incidentally and OT, houses can be a giant PITA. We had a widow spider (black body with white marking, probably a black widow, only 5% lethal!) out on the back earlier, and something is knocking shit over in the roof space. I feel a pest control visit coming on...
maybe mp will lend his wife out!
EHP,
I don't ever care to "squelch dissenting opinions". I just get annoyed when someone steps in with a thoroughly discredited piece of "conventional wisdom" and acts like the Commentariat are clueless. Those are trolls, and I think you nailed MfO accordingly.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Yes, yogi, everyone is a liar, everyone is a fraud, nothing spoken is real, no one is dependable, it's all an illusion.
You must really not enjoy life very much.
Jonathon,
The intentional Crash will not be denied or prevented. It's textbook. It's inevitable because of cause-and-effect.
Check the relevant research on financial crises and currency crises.
And speculative attacks. Almost forgot.
While not disputing the facts,..you really were pretty abrasive leading up to that. As far as I can recall, it was surprising because it was the only time he actually insulted someone, other than a few spats with CR,...and he had plenty of provocation from others far worse than that.
the thing about mork, and others on both sides, is their strident tone of "i'm right and you all don't know anything."
I'd be happy to see their links and arguments but for some reason, he (and they) never respond to queries directly.
He's a drive-by troll.
yogi sees 'one currency now' may actually happen!
blinkered wrote:
Excellent observation.
my rule of thumb is that if they've been on the street for 5 years or more
the chances of re-hab are slim to none... some years ago I once spent a lot of time and treasure
trying to do a Pygmalion on one such person and after all that time I doubt if I changed a damn thing...
very frustrating when you see no progress or realized you were being played...
I'm a pretty young guy and it seems like all the recoveries I can really remember have been fueled by debt and bubbles. In our economy's current state, it's hard for me to even see how we get out of here without blowing another huge bubble. The obstacles seem so much greater than anything that's come before. Or perhaps things just looked easier in hindsight.
That's why I'm addicted to reading financial blogs now. What we're going through will be studied in textbooks for the rest of my life and I want to know what's going on as it's happening.
reading the entire doc gives a clear impression that the imf doesn really own any gold, let alone physically possess it
"Joint Economic Committee Study, United States Congress, 1999"
IMF Gold Sales in Perspective
the member nations have pledged the gold and imf holds paper and balance sheet entries
heres just one of several para that taken together leave little doubt
"These concerns about IMF gold sales were recognized in 1975 in a joint bipartisan statement by Senator Ribicoff (D-Conn.) and Senator Taft (R-Ohio):
Either the gold belongs to the IMF, or it belongs to the member states,
which contributed the gold in proportion to their quotas. In either case,
the profits should be distributed to the member nations in proportion
to their quotas. "
Oxtail wrote:
Although we will certainly see more bubbles, the big ones have already been blown.
Duke of Con Dao
I have known people who were temporarily homeless, and those currently homeless. Some good people in a bad situation, some evil junkies.
You're right on the main point though that I don't know any homeless children personally.
I have no problem with standing by my point that being homeless does not make someone a bad person or stupid. If the kid is working hard and all it takes to get him in the classroom is free laundry so he isn't too embarrassed to attend, why not?
Behavioral problems affect both rich and poor children, and it would be best to handle that as an issue itself.
I never said there wasn't correlation between homelessness and other problems. Just that homelessness itself should not be a cause of a child not getting the opportunity of education.
For what it's worth, the school(s) for homeless children were being run by charitable donation and closed shortly after they ran out of money 2 years ago.
what a sad story. Trend analysts had forecast in 2008 that US will live on food stamps in the not so distant future. Things have already strated to happen.
fresbee
Investing Contrarian
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Relevant to the OT:
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
This really hurts my head (and heart). I seem to remember that childhood obesity is a wide spread problem. So the half that aren't on food stamps are over eating?
One other 'defender of the status quo'/more of the same crowd 'wildcardplay' may be intentionally over the top types who ridiculously support monetary policy/stimulus/bailout government-economy measures and will incite some 'pseudo-debate' between the 'sick & tired' crowd and the standard status quo gatekeepers. Makes for blog drama with no real substance.
I love life. I enjoyed watching 3-card monty before they shut it down and/or the tourists wised up. Those guys had talent and skill. The game was less rigged the the FED's, though. You could turn over the card with your own hand.
$2 quadrillion...
OT went to school with Ribicoff's grandson. Became a sound technician, not a banker.
Now is a good time. Open-source, fully transparent. I advocate it in the name of reducing transaction costs, a burden on honest free trade.
JP wrote:
I used to know a little about electronics. On thing was that when a circuit overheats, more current flows, it heats up more, more current flows, etc., until it destroys itself. Not sure if this is specific to amplifiers. Called 'Thermal Runway'.
Crossed my mind the other day that the Farming-Food-Industrial-Complex has discovered how to trip the human 'Thermal Runway' that winds up in food addiction and obesity.
It hard to believe that say Seb or Mork from Ork are for real.
Reminds me of the Jim Nabors 'character' in Gomer Pyle or the Tom Hank's Forrest Gump 'character'.
Very entertaining but unbelievable.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
I'm in. Unfortunately, I'm sure it'll succeed like all the other transparency items we've seen recently, i.e. the FED, the guvmint, squidles, etc.
Obesity is very well correlated to the amount of time spent in a car
the housing bubble caused suburbia which caused obesity
is there an official standard set of rules for X degrees of separation to the _____ bubble yet?
could put kevin bacon out of work
JP, food stamps aren't a direct cause of obesity, but they are correlated. The link is that aid recipients are more likely to purchase processed crap food because they also lack proper kitchen/food prep and storage facilities.
1 Currency
Abe Ribicoff's grandson? was he a banker before he became a Senator?
...
EHP
your point well taken. guess I see homelessness and eventual runaway as a jumping off point.
agree. no child should be denied school. like I said earlier the 'feral aspect' once set in too deep
is hard to eliminate.
also, turning a pathological liar into more or less an honest person seems to me at least impossible
unless you're willing to do a Clockwork Orange on them...
One Currency,
Yeah...but will some type of 'last standing lender of last resort' Evil Squidish Biggest Bank on Earth 'control' the 'one currency now' somehow??????
just wondering
JP
i may well be wrong here but recall that
that the wright b was an econometric model forecasting recessions...or uh the business cycle
and sebastian had great faith in the efficacy of that model
i agree with Rob Dawg that had the business cycle been in any way, conventional, the model may likely have worked
indeed, i believe if applied conventionally keynesian approach works
problem is we never did what keynes said...
government was supposed to run counter cyclical budgets...accumulate surpluses during fat times
and run deficits during downturns
our federal government has been on a debt binge thru-out so yeah i guess keynes wuz wrong, kinda sorta
i agree with my friends on the right here (yeah im a lefty) all this deficit spending is just drawing one more white line of credit meth on the fed mirror
Duke,
The 'behavioral treatment' in Clockwork Orange actually didn't work...'viddy it well'...
Anyone interested in practicing their lecturing? I don't speak good, and in order to ascend to the political class it is necessary for those on the bottom to develop the skills, such as speaking in public. I propose we have a "CR Commetariat Lecture Series"; where commentariat so inclined prepare and give pretend lectures to large groups of people on various subjects. After 3 weeks of collecting lectures we use 2 weeks or so for everyone to listen to the lectures, vote for winners and make comments on the subject matter.
Denninger's comments made me look at the lecture series Bair spoke at; they had an archive of speeches that goes back into the 1960s. Robert F Kennedy talking about the Vietnam war in 1968; Reagan giving a speech in 1971 which spoke to me a little bit. Perhaps this project is a bit ambitious... I'd like to participate in toastmasters but don't have the time during the day.
All the lectures given in University and colleges seem to be given by the elites. The power of the Internet and blogosphere has the ability for the underclass to speak to the elites and spread ideas that don't come from the top.
Just a thought I had... we could use something like rapidshare to easily share files...
Don't despair, they doubted the Euro would survive.
No one thought Ebay, Pay-Pal, Amazon, etc., would be reliable.
Linux, Mozilla...
I'm talking about no central bank involvement. 100% optional. Your gold and dollars remain what they are.
Duke of Con Dao
I know first hand what those descents into the abyss look like. Glad that we came to a common understanding.
restated; Not so much outwardly saving others, but reducing barriers through introspection of the system
Yogi,
Uh...Ok...sounds good...
in order to ascend to the political class it is necessary for those on the bottom to develop the skills, such as speaking in public.
someone forgot to tell W, though i guess being born a Bush more than made up for his lack oratory skills (and overall intelligence).
edit: glossed over "on the bottom," which definitely wouldn't describe W's political status.
YLSP,
'The power of the internet and the blogosphere...'
Yes...one can review the research...look at speeches...investigations...public reports with lots of blacked out sections...but the internet can be a tool for discovery... just stay off the hoax sites and misinfo sites...go the the Ivory Tower and the Ivy league on the computer...enter the world of higher learning...where our leaders don't seem to go...
"This really hurts my head (and heart). I seem to remember that childhood obesity is a wide spread problem. So the half that aren't on food stamps are over eating?"
Lots of fat poor kids, but they can be malnourished because they live on starchy, fatty foods. Nasty processed food is more expensive than lean meat and fresh veggies in the suburbs, but good food is more expensive or not available in many bad areas. Add in parents that don't know any better or are stressed out from working two jobs, etc.
Also, junk food is an accessible pleasure. There's a great passage in "Down and Out in Paris and London" about well-meaning do-gooders expecting poor people to eat carrots and brown bread, instead of white toast and tea.
Since you asked: Wiki
YLSP wrote:
The real trick is in not joining the political class but having their ear. There's no way to teach influence and the mantle can prove every bit as distasteful as a life in politics can be for many.
YLSP
i appreciated your observations about KARL D and his un balanced rant against sheila B over at ticker
i think you nailed it...and your observations about hamp and a tarp like program for community based institutions etc
as for the lecture series idea...i like to hear others present...im not that knowledgeable that i can spout more than a few lines
i rely heavily on web searches and getting educated by the commentariat...id have to think about it
1 Currency
my dim memory of him was politician / lawyer that's why I didn't get the grandson-banker thing...
someone had to bring up prescott bush,
good night before the godwin
Oxtail,
If the last Bubble sucked and the one before that sucked...why would the next one (The Really Big Bubble) be one we gotta have?
OT
speaking of the Chicago anti-war riots or whatever they're called years ago I was briefly acquainted with a guy who owned a bar
up near Columbia... seems during that riot he ended up killing someone, accidentally or not, I'm not sure. he was a student at Columbia College at the time and charges were never pressed by Chicago, from what I understand Columbia was involved to some extent.
the source was his business partner and long time friend... even 18 years after the event he looked like he could easily snap my neck...
mock - no one is required to bet.
I was hinting that the Ribicoff family did not get rich from "public service". There are bad lawyers and doctors, but the cliche in my culture is not to study to become a banker.
Now comedian is a noble calling, and I'll bet you all the dollars I have Al Franken had higher test scores in school than Gore/Bush/Kerry/Reagan [it came up earlier].
squidward wrote:
No,but he did say that he didn't believe that someone who made the bet would actually pay, or that the person would weasel out. It was an insult.
68
the democratic convention
mayor richard daley yelling "fuck you" clearly to be seen on TV
as the police and anti war protesters went at it in streets
was in highschool at the time and had classmates who went on to serve in vietnam
most were drafted, some volunteered, some didnt come back
thats why we dont have a draft anymore
without a draft most parents and young people say hey its not my war
no chance ill forced to fight
and so they let the deciders decide what ever they want
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Of all the comedians you had to use him? That's picking the bottom of the barrel.
A prime example of my open source system at work.
Sebastian is free not to pay on a bet [assuming that to be the fact], but his reputation suffers, and mock is right to hound him about his lies or insults. Sebastian can always challenge the record. From the failed trade, I know I can take mock's word and not Sebastian's, which I would have predicted from the content of their comments anyway.
squidward said
mock - no one is required to bet.
you are absolutely right
but,
he could have said , hey mock i think you are not so smart and are dead wrong but i ant gonna bet
and that would have been fine
but what he said was that he would have accepted my bet if he thought i would keep my word
BUT he felt sure i was lying and that after i lost the wager i wouldnt keep my end of the deal
...
ive made lots of mistakes in life...im not proud, but,
i do my very best to keep my word,
maybe ive over reacted to this...hmmm im the fool again? maybe
yeah Al Franken...
I use to see him at Riverside Park at 73rd with his kid, lived close by, and a former friend of mine use to
do computer training for his wife... (wonder how that worked out for her?)
no doubt he got some high test scores but I never thought
he was such a great comedian - always wondered why they kept him on SNL so long,
perhaps he's a master at the in-fighting behind closed doors, who knows ...
what was his partner's name when they first appeared on SNL in '75?
what circuit of comedy hell is he playing these days?
The funniest elected official I know is Governor Paterson. Sad that he's stuck in a no-win crisis. He actually sounded a public alarm against kicking the can last week, in announcing the record acceleration of New York's deficit. (A record for ANY State)
Franken and Davis were OK on the original snl, but Franken was probably best as a writer.
"Rush Limbaugh Is a Big Fat Idiot" is not hyperbole.
It sorta makes sense in a sick way to stiff or greatly cut all the unfunded government liabilities or financial claims that are outstanding now and give all the money to Big Banks and maybe even Big Foreign Banks...that would at least explain the intentional Crashing of the system...the fact that financial claims then could not be paid...and the nation destroyed...and massive 'profit-taking' from a generation ready to retire with savings transferred to elites...makes sense...in a global financial conspiracy novel...
"If they dare to come out in the open field and defend these wasteful bailouts as a good thing, we shall fight them to the uttermost, having behind us the producing masses of the nation and the world. Having behind us the commercial interests and the laboring interests and all the toiling masses, we shall answer their demands for another stimulus by saying to them, you shall not press down upon the brow of savers this crown of thorns. You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of debt."
1 Currency
I agree with you on Franken, he's really a writer... one reason why I never opened that book was it's off putting title, not that I would open a book by Rush...
as for Patterson have they been able to get him not to run again? wasn't that the Obama plan?
Just game theory at work. The old barons threatened to take their riches and relocate in the face of high taxes to fund the New Deal. Their bluff was called. Does Jamie Dimon make something the Chinese can't? (David X Li is back home in China right now, probably not a big bonus)
Taxes may be low in Paraguay, but the cost of doing business...
How Reliable Is the M-16 Rifle? - At War Blog - NYTimes.com
if anyone missed it there's an interesting article on the M-16 rifle
......
Few issues are more personal to soldiers than the question of whether they can trust their rifles. And few rifles in history have generated more controversy over their reliability than the American M-16 assault rifle and its carbine version, the M-4..."
also, read some of the comments below it like:
4) "You didn’t mention the critical advantages of the M-16 and M-4 - they are lightweight and extremeley accurate. I fought in the invasion of Iraq with the Third Battallion, Fifth Marines, and I can tell you firsthand that after we crossed the Euphrates, we were ambushed nearly every day, often by superior numbers. The main reason we consistenltly stomped our attackers was simple - we hit what we were aiming at and they didn’t. The forces opposing us (Republican Guard, Saddam Fedayeen, and foreign mercerenaries and terrorists) were generally brave, tactically sound, and well armed, they just couldn’t deliver killing shots even in a perfectly executed ambush. Part of the difference in ability was training, but part of it was the inherent inaccuracy of the AK-47. Even the Russians switched over to a round sized similar to .223 long ago with the AK-74. .223 weapons, and especially the M-16 and M-4, are simply much easier to fire accurately in the heat of combat due to their light weight, low recoil, and ease of use. Tweaking the round and rifle itself may be a good idea, I’ll leave that to the experts, but I highly doubt that any move away from .223 would be advisable." Colin
Paterson is running, despite Obama's alleged support for Cuomo. We'll see what Obama's support does for GS's Corzine in NJ tomorrow... Sadly, I like Corzine as a Governor, and can't stand his opponent, whose only promise is to cut taxes.
Paterson is a lot of things Obama isn't, candid being my favorite. Fully capable of coming right out with "I can't see those clothes on the emperor..." We New Yorkers still have a sense of humor. Unfortunately, he's in a no-win.
Are they all laser-sighted?
My speech...
'It Can't happen Here.'
I guess he was responding to this:
The last non-bank small to mid size business lender went down in Japan. About $2 billion in liabilities.
Lender Lopro files for protection | The Japan Times Online
I hope we're smart enough to booby-trap the weapons we sell with a chip or something.
That kind of secrecy I can support. If the cryptologists sell out, we're fucked anyway.
Can't find what they claimed in assets. Wonder who had a piece, who hedged their piece with what counterparty...
Does a hungry squid start eating its eggs?
Love that Goog.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Still won't work.
The Dark Triad (What's Wrong with the World)
"It's the narcissistic, psychopathic Machiavellian who gets the girls"
People are good at believing themselves to be the exception to the rule.
Do
get tangled in their own tentacles?
Of course I want that Nobel to get girls, but I ain't buying any genetic component to behavior other than a general encouragement to diversify for its own sake. Women also want men who provide for 18 years or so, even if they're tempted to sneak off for different genes.
Kucinich is no Machiavelli and Madoff might be getting more than he wants.
the article I cited in the NY Times
How Reliable Is the M-16 Rifle?
is worth the read but what is even more interesting is the hundred or so comments that follow,
if American isn't a gun culture I don't know what is!
.....
you like Corzine but seem to dislike Bloomie... Corzine bought his way into office and probably became
gov. cause if you hang around in the Senate too long you have no shot at the presidency....
EDIT:
someone here shoots a mauser and there was an interesting take on that gun in one of the comments,
Can't really find any more detail on this. I think the take-away message is that the non-bank business model is broken. Without access to cheap deposits, one can't survive in this world.
Watched the lions on PBS yesterday. I hadn't known that the alpha male battle is more complicated than it appears. The females may help the pride's king fight off rival males. It can depend on whether the females stay united, which can depend on how many have their own cubs, and whether they accept their status as aunts.
It's in the group's interest to minimize lethal fights, so sometimes the females will just let the chips fall, knowing that the usurper(s) will likely kill their cubs. But the North American lion is extinct, and lion population is determined much more by human planning than survival of some genetic strain.
According to the periodic table of finance bloggers, Calculated Risk is Thorium, atomic number 90.
Pure thorium is a silvery-white metal. When contaminated with the oxide, thorium slowly tarnishes in air, becoming gray and finally black. When thorium faces reality it becomes a permabear.
Thorium dioxide has the highest melting point (3300 °C) of all oxides. Hence, it can withstand the hypernova bomb as well as hyperinflation.
Thorium decays very slowly, its half-life is comparable to the age of the Universe. Therefore, it can survive the very end of the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar.
The Periodic Table of Finance Bloggers The Reformed Broker
I like Corzine based only on what I know of his record versus his opponent (saw some debates, which included an independent who smelled like a John Anderson splitter stooge all the way).
I don't begrudge anyone the right to spend their "hard-earned" money on their own campaign, although I dispute that either has added value in proportion to their wealth. My complaint against Bloomberg is more that he spat in the face of the electoral process by changing term-limits he had supported when they were put to referendum.
Also, although claiming to be a life-long Democrat, he ran as a Republican twice because it was easier to get elected. I think he's an "Independent" this time, having spent $15,000/hour. The money was made by latching onto
His news service is good and I trust much of the information, if not the headlines. Homelessness is up, and he said last week that Wall Street bonus revenue was good for the City. So was Madoff's charity, for a time.
By the way, I see his company profits going to zero as information gets cheaper.
"It's the narcissistic, psychopathic Machiavellian who gets the girls"
Don't we narcissistic, sociopathic Machiavellians get any love?
1 Currency
I agree, the switch on term limits made me sick, for that he needs a taste of humble pie - DEFEAT!
as for his company I do agree with you but it's going to be a long time coming... he'll come up with some value
added service - always thought that the fees they charged for real time market data were aburd (last time I had
any direct experience was exactly 5 years ago...)
....
right now I'm trying to decide what town to move back to NYC or LA, lived in LA '80-81 and might give it
a shot - I'd really like to work in the 'Business' , yes, I understand it involves a certain amount of selling out -
whether or not they'd take me is another thing...
I once read that it was believed that Nixon never had sex as President, even with his wife.
Einstein did fine, maybe even leveraging his FBI Peacenik outlaw cred.
Duke did you catch last year's "Il Divo"? Superb, and cleverly stylized rather than realist, since the guy's still Senator For Life. If you're going to do docudrama, make it art: nothing ever comes close to actual documentary footage. ["Basterds" was a lot of fun, but way over the top. Thought QT ran out of ideas, so he defied convention just to show he could]
You want to write, direct, or edit, mainly?
1 currency
I started as a writer (prose) and remain as such before branching into scripts (more of a craft) but directing is fascinating in that sometimes who can re-write a scene on the fly and it becomes a bit like painting unlike say prose writing...
....
I've only edited for exactly 16 months just to teach myself the mechanics...
I'm glad I did cause it taught me a great appreciation of what can be done in post ...
Annie Hall was completely made by Ralph Rosenblum and Woody in post, they
had miles of film and fashioned the story line out of it (originally, was more along the lines
of Manhattan Murder Mystery)
film editing I really get into... but I hate prose editing because it's endless,
footage in the can forces an endpoint....
as fer 'basterds' I've only scene maybe 30% of it since my copy is crap
what I saw so far is riffing off other movies... perhaps you're right
QT's out of ideas, I doubt we'll see anything out of him great for awhile
if ever, perhaps he needs to taste the bitter ashes of defeat a few times
instead of having enablers like the Weinsteins around (Don Kings of the biz)
As did Chaplin, Kubrick. Sometimes the genius is in extending the scene beyond all convention. I thought Mike Myers did a nice job of overkill in the first "Austin Powers". Kubrick probably went too long on occasion.
Agree with the ironic quote about avoiding the award-winning editor, though.
Woody and Spike have great seats to the Knicks, didn't have to sell out much. Less can be more. Of course, the Knicks haven't beaten the Lakers since Clyde...
Mayor Mike will stop traffic for you, and so far he'll let you speak your mind... Almost time to try to dump the arrogant $%^&#
it's been some years not but the film project I was involved with in the City after we
had the footage my director went thru 3 editors over 2 years, still ended up not so good,
why? the problem was with the script and his refusal to make changes (although he
did use my re-write of the 2nd act), either you have the stuff or you don't and no great editor
can conjure it up for you...
don't get me wrong, I do have one NYC story about central park that originally started out as a short story ,
I think I finished it about 7 years ago and sent it to say a dozen top magazines, of course it was rejected...
but some editor sent me a hand written note and said while it wasn't right for Esquire I should get it into
other hands...
[I just started re-writing that story by adding a green based CDS scam as a coda]
Walked/jogged through the Park today. Looks better than ever. I've even come to terms with the fences since my local diamond used to have too much broken glass and no grass. I could tell you some stories...
Wall Street put up a lot of cash (my father's classmate Richard Gilder a big chunk) and didn't privatize much. (Still can't understand why there are lots of free tennis courts, a bowling green, horse path, two ice rinks and a beach volleyball pit but only a couple of neglected hoops courts, no paddleball to speak of --a latin favorite at other parks).
Without it I would leave the City. Van Cortland in the Bronx is probably as beautiful, and underused.
The story is listed as news not opinion, but I don't think Lloyds has the "private" commitments yet. Wonder if they've insured themselves...
Hope all that discouraged banker "talent' doesn't come to New York. We were making some slight progress.
Isn't RBS one of the primary dealers for the fed? What now?
I also have a dumb question about glod. The IMF is selling gold in the market, Russia is and other nations are. This will crucify the dollar no?
apologies if this was posted earlier.
By Thomas Kutty Abraham and Kim Kyoungwha
The two banks said they won’t pay cash bonuses to workers earning more than 39,000 pounds a year.
We hope the details are sufficiently complicated to preclude the obvious:
Salary: 1 pound
Bonus: N! Bazillion pounds
On a cross of glod.
It was discussed upthread. I try not to trade on daily "news", but I've been trying to hedge exposure the dollar since Bear Stearns. I think China and Russia have also.
I don't know if the RBI takes physical delivery or paper.
I'm talking to myslef! lol. Yup RBS is a primary dealer.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primary_dealer
Thanks yogi...(I picture you like Yogi Bear-ultimately huggable
Apologies for not reading up...too much reading to do, so little time.
Nanoo^2: I also have a dumb question about glod. The IMF is selling gold in the market, Russia is and other nations are. This will crucify the dollar no?
Nanoo, this will just goose the parallel asset bubbles that have formed over the last six months to one year. Specifically metals and oil are being inflated by money trying to find a safe place to nap.
(edit: delete spurious article block)
Cat litter might be a safe store of value too. But there's not enough gold in the world to solve this problem. I expect parallel large-scale asset bubbles to inflate and pop, maybe not even at the same time. And then a recycle back to the dollar when stress gets too large.
In Sonoma County the jumbo market seems completely quiet.
Price at these sales volumes is NaN; not a number. Divide by zero.
I wonder how, without move-up buyers or some mass inflation in wages, jumbo-priced houses anywhere but serial bubble-towns* could ever sell.
Add in the declining demographic bulge of monied boomers trying to sell their second homes and there is significant price pressure downwards. I think houses within, say, 50% of the jumbo threshold are vulnerable to significant price drops.
NervousRex wrote:
And thus a currency crisis in the making and that 'mother of all carry trades' unwinding? Evil Henry Paulson posted about Aramco changing facilities out of NYMEX, All these little bits adding up to something which is hidden from the peasants to prevent panic attacks?? I'm shocked too at the news of really rich Middle East countries having difficulties, like Dubai. I suppose they also bought into the paradigm in spades and now find themselves challenged like everyone else (maybe save China but who knows)... oil, gold, wheat...commodities at large in for a dose of reality sooner rather than later? I get confused as the relationships between commodities, $$s is quite perverse.
One could argue in a digital age there is enough glod in the world. The question may more be the enviornmental cost.
No idea whether the RBS deal affects the primary dealer relationship in any way. Ben doesn't want me to have that kind of information as it could spook markets.
I don't know if the British taxpayer will appreciate being told she must buy UST's if no one else does. Not that that could ever have been enforced against any foreign bank, whoever signed the papers. Wonder if the FED is holding TALF MBS from RBS...it's all just speculation. Still got my TBT hedge in my alpha soup bets.
I bet it won't affect it as they will reorganize and keep that unit sheltered for obvious reasons. If Europe follows suit, then we're gonna be talking some turkey. Then its the race to the bottom and who blinks first. A good friend and I have been discussing this for sometime, my bet is the UK leads everyone down but I'm no guru or zombie....
and NervousRex: My nickname is Nan. So apropos!
I don't wish hardship on Dubai, but they should be planting trees not towers. My father was invited to Saudi Arabia and was struck by how little wealth they displayed in architectural structures. We may have too many, especially in my concrete jungle, but as a country we've had a grain surplus forever. If we have to burn some of the corn to fuel the truck, maybe the farmers can claw back some wealth from the bankers.
I'll take good land and water as the basis for rebuilding an economy over any weight in gold. Oil's days are numbered.
There's also the demand side of "jumbo" RE market. If health care passes and more doctors are trained and work, the result will be more high end people to buy high end RE. Shouldn't this lessen the decline of top tier RE prices a little?
What makes you think the law of supply and demand will suddenly cease to function?
When the doctors' bonuses get out of proportion to their perceived value added, we'll train more bankers.
I'm willing to stomach the oversupply of doctors through mal-investment better than banker/homeowner welfare.
The market these days reminds me of Niven's stepping discs, and the mass swarming behavior people displayed when presented with the opportunity to herd.
It may be that in the market we've managed to connect with some long-dormant modality of swarming. Similar to the gregarious form of locusts.
In other news, how does CNBS stay in business running a grand total of 10 ads? No wonder they have to sell that steaming heap to a cable company. Serves 'em right. Put Joe on the help desk.
Maybe this is obvious, but I'm amazed that most people get freaked out by medical problems, especially the big C, they don't care how much it costs and they don't want a good doctor; they want the absolutely best doctor on the earth to treat them. (Although a separate question, how would they really know if their doctor is the "best"?)
They will also accept paying medical insurers absorbent mark ups as long as the treatment works. And medical people will get these fees even when the treatment doesn't work. The situation seems a little different from the usual supply and demand situation. Perception and fear matter.