Anyone care to speculate why the markets surged, with the Dow up almost 147 points, and then faltered and are falling. Are most investors looking for a way out while the markets are up? That would indicate a complete lack of confidence and a belief that things ARE going to get worse.
Every hedge fund and prop trading desk on Wall St. is trying to lock in gains and a huge year end bonus. The thing is, everyone can't fit through the exits.
Timmay heard that Lassie just got picked up by the pound, how nice of them to be a scarecrow buyer of our instruments of debt, when nobody else wants them?
I always like adding a graph ... I think this was positive for employment, but I'm not sure it is sustainable. And it doesn't mean a huge increase in jobs - more likely just few or no job losses in manufacturing in October.
I'm wondering how much is one-time auto related too.
I thought the ISM report was very positive. No holes to poke in it. That being said, there is not a lot of time for the private sector to build up any momentum before other GDP factors subtract from growth.
Interesting that it seems suppliers consistently deem 30% of their customers' inventories being "too low", it might be the early signs of what became known as a new normal. Or just a defensive posture for those planning further cuts/closings.
Wow. Since I was first, I feel obliged to comment on the topic now... grave responsibility. Seems like a statistical blip to me more than anything else, not that I have special knowledge. I just don't see any real manufacturing returning without some sort of major shift in current policies and mindset. And TPTB are totally invested in the cheapest labor they can find, be it overseas or by lowering the standard of living of the working class in the first world to where we are competitive with Chinese and Indian peasants.
Our Government added $1.9 trillion to the national debt over the past 12 months. Additionally, the Fed added ~ $1.3 trillion to its balance sheet. And after all that, all we get is a few measly bounces in random economic indicators.
I think it's all borrowed time. Not a recovery at all, but a further impoverishment via more non-economic debt.
I'm wondering how much is one-time auto related too.
I'm curious about the impact of the auto-related component when it retracts. Where I grew up, in the heart of the Canadian manufacturing district, a good number of companies derive their income from auto companies, auto company suppliers, or their suppliers. And even those that are diversified might still collect 50% of their income from one of those tiered suppliers. It's all connected and, given enough leverage involved, there is little difference between losing 30% of your revenue and losing 100%, except the number of months you can last before shuttering.
We'll see, but given that we're probably going to have an election up here in the next 4-12 months, it could easily change the political fortunes of the ruling party.
Angry Saver,
Do government employees not spend their $? I see what you're saying, but we are in unconventional times. I would rather they have spent a $4tn lump sum, and then had a clear path of progress. Now we have a pot of lukewarm coffee. Little flavor, too cold and too warm at the same
time -- all in all very unsatisfying and a waste of inputs
Well truthfully, what I would have considered the best course of action would be to do wholesale debt renegotiation, with the 2 primary goals being to leave a functional system (I consider debt slavery to be disfunctional) and not to reward irresponsible behavior. Something like affixing a clause to all loans that cuts principal for all deflation beyond 2% and increases to principal for all inflation above 4%.
EHP, yes, I know it isn't flat. My generalization was just a generalization with a little hyperbole thrown in for good measure. It seems clear to me, however, that substantial manufacturing will not return until either the cost of labor rises elsewhere (won't happen in any significant way) or working class wages fall in the first world. Of course, the asteroid could hit or the Alpha Centaurians invade and make it all academic.
CR-
I assume that you went to the effort of separating pre- and post-1989 for a reason; but then didn't make a distinction when fitting a straight line to the data in total.
The green dots represent a period that manufacturing employment has had a negative bias. Based on your chart I'm guessing that it has largely to do with automation. When the ISM index is < 50 there is economic pressure to dump employees. When it is >50, they find that they are able to run the machines a little harder with the manpower that they currently have.
It looks like when the index has been >50, there is essentially zero increase in employment over the last 20 years.
It seems clear to me, however, that substantial manufacturing will not return until either the cost of labor rises elsewhere (won't happen in any significant way) or working class wages fall in the first world.
If only there was some way to significantly lower peoples' housing costs.
Here is the problem with this analysis. Hours worked at all time low. No need to hire anybody for the most part. Just increase hours. Yes, the relationship is there, but I bet if you put a third access in regarding the capacity utilization rate or hours worked level, you'd see that we arent yet in the phase of adding workers. (aside from c4c related auto jobs temporarily brought back.)
aClem
It's more clear to me with the perspective that manufacturing in the US -- well the entire OECD minus Korea, Mexico -- has been on the decline for decades. Until this point that the economy was only sustainable through import seller-financing. So I think manufacturing will become a more important, and better compensated relative to the rest of the US economy. That doesn't mean manufacturing wages must fall, but that the cost of living for manufacturing employees must fall. There's a lot of overpaid dead weight who could be sacrificed to make that possible.
China is facing some very large adjustments that I don't think enough people appreciate. Expecting the last big trend to be the next big trend is generally where forecasts go wrong.
Cash for clunkers blip ? I was under the impression that C4C drew down existing inventory rather than spur more new manufacturing.
Is there any supporting analysis on which manufacturing sectors actually added the jobs ? Defense, burger flipping, aeronautic ?
~splat
but that the cost of living for manufacturing employees
of course, one of many aspects of our deep-rooted idiocy is that we're spending tens of billions with the continued first-time homebuyer tax break to make sure that housing in flyover land isn't affordable, and that the truly crappy parts of the coast where this program actually supports prices (and where manufacturing labor could also be housed) also stay significantly above affordability for an $18/hr wage.
NR, rising wages in '3rd world' and/or falling wages in the '1st.'
Ah. got it. In my perfect world, I'd have to go with your door number 3. Any country that doesn't provide jobs for it's average and below average people - at wages that provide a decent living - is just asking for trouble.
Of course, we're WAY beyond that now, but if I were King that's what I'd try to address.
Well truthfully, what I would have considered the best course of action would be to do wholesale debt renegotiation, with the 2 primary goals being to leave a functional system (I consider debt slavery to be disfunctional) and not to reward irresponsible behavior.
EHP,
That would have been preferable to taking on trillions in public debt to preserve the value of fraudulent credit. Credit which is primarily the wealth of the top 1/10th of one percent.
That said, there is no solution. No magic bullet that will undo the damage. The cardinal sin was allowing too much bad debt to pollute the system. Bernanke, Greensham, the Fed and the banksters need to be held accountable not rewarded. Holding them accountable would go a long way to preserving faith in our political system, capitalism and our Country's founding priciples.
picosec, I felt things had changed, and I just picked 20 years randomly. The range for the ISM employment index is much narrower (it has really been much above 50 for the last 20 years) - in the old days it was at 60 and 70!
The equation is for all of the data. If you use the equation for the last 20 years - you are right - this suggests employment is still declining, but by far less than the 50K per month we've seen.
splat
Around August, or maybe July even, during the early clunkers days auto manufacturers upped production that would be consistent with 12mn USA SAAR auto sales. So inventory should have grown in October. There will be enough inventory for extended winter plant shutdowns. So add that on to the list of double-dip guarantors
Yeah. Compete. THAT was the mantra 30 years ago when it was just those UNION LOSERS getting out-sourced. I still remember being so thrilled about screwing THOSE LAZY UNION BASTARDS when I was a young Republican. I can still feel that, that, meanness. It was glorious!
EHP, I am a big fan of yours and out of my league in any discussion of this sort. Nevertheless, being foolhardy, I will continue. I can't argue that lower cost of living would allow lower wages and therefore a possible return of manufacturing, to some degree. I see it as more of a political problem, though. Not to get too deep into the doo doo, but those who have the real power have no interest in where things are made right now, just as long as they (TPTB) do well. If this means lowering costs at home or off-shoring, or some combination of the two, they will follow the profit.
Obviously, things are not one dimensional and I have never felt China or India was going to replace the 1st world in terms of standard of living. My own feeling, and it's just a feeling, is that we are ALL headed downward, at different speeds with lots of bumps and turns. The current situation is a collapsing house of cards. What comes next is nothing I can predict, other than it won't be all that swell for most on the planet.
If there is no solution, there is no problem but the one in our minds
I would rather say "there's no easy way out"
EHP,
We either let the bad debt deflate or we make the majority that do not benefit from it pay for it over many years. Again, the damage is done. The bell can't be unrung. There is no solution, only outcomes (bad and worse imo).
Bernanke, Greensham, the Fed and the banksters need to be held accountable not rewarded.
If congress wanted to do anything productive, it'd be to work with the State of New York to remove the statute of limitations from fraud, professional malpractice, and breach of contract, or at least make sure that a person involved in any sort of corporate fraud within Wall Street could be held liable 20 years in the future. Then commission a special 'evidence collecting task force' to drive around and visit all banks receiving (or who have received) money from the TARP and subsequent federal programs.
They don't have to even do anything, just look like they're doing something, and that should be enough to cause half the Wall Street crooks to die from worry ulcers within a year or two.
Meta-observation.
First thanks to CR for all he does.
This latest correlation, and r0.48 is pretty convincing, unfortunately illustrates what I was talking about when I said, "flying the instruments and not the airplane." The data tell us what should happen but we are flying someplace where the instruments have never been tested.
Wow. Makes me glad I never readjusted my withholding after flatlining it early this year as a hedge against my '08 refund showing up as an IOU. I was likely to owe a bit come April. This should come close to evening things out.
If congress wanted to do anything productive, it'd be to work with the State of New York to remove the statute of limitations from fraud, professional malpractice, and breach of contract, or at least make sure that a person involved in any sort of corporate fraud within Wall Street could be held liable 20 years in the future. Then commission a special 'evidence collecting task force' to drive around and visit all banks receiving (or who have received) money from the TARP and subsequent federal programs.
"stocks advanced early after a trio of positive surprises economic reports, but gave up those gains after Jon Greenlee, associate director of the Fed's Division of Banking Supervision and Regulation, said U.S. banks are at risk of large new loan losses, particularly on commercial property."
It's always been the people who would stand up for the constitution that mattered. Same goes for every symbol
Yeah, you're right there. I can remember many people agreeing that it WAS just a piece of paper. How sad. I guess it does take a well informed electorate (with some brains) to actually have a constitutional government after all. The citizens can't just let things run on auto-pilot and expect anything other than eventually hitting a mountain. (continueing with the airplane analogies here).
And I should have added, Chicago, that I think this is an important question. But this--changing of the statute of limitations--could simply be argued as necessary due to the complex nature of financial transactions these days. It's no longer a simple matter of flipping through a few sets of books. Now it's gigabytes-worth of data and reams of emails just to figure out which shell companies have been set up to do what. The justice system is merely responding to these changing conditions.
If only there was some way to significantly lower peoples' housing costs.
867 people/acre in tenements, one toilet/floor w/probably 20-25 people/floor, lower east side of NYC in the 1900's Probably some part of Chicago & Boston. That kind of housing tends to be less expensive than a McMansion for 2 or 3.
Anyone visiting NYC MUST visit the Lower East Side Tenement Museum. I was there in 1999 and was incredibly moved, and I don't get emotional very easily.
It's much better known now so check into making reservations well in advance.
Try not to think of Geithner as a "person" with "thoughts."
The construct known as "Geithner" doesn't function the way a person or a dog or a lizard or a horse functions - it is not "alive" anymore than your desktop computer is alive.
That way lies madness, and you will consistently misunderstand its role in implementing the power structure that is shaping up.
I'm sensing a level of doom that might be exceeding the safe standards (as specified in optimistic Patriotic Particles per Member).
Let's all have some patriotic optimism to offset the doom level, before things get out of hand.
Don't forget, we've got the world's best and most stable democracy in the ENTIRE whole wide world, and we have that because of Freedom, Democracy and Freedom.
What's weird is that the TSX in Toronto is down severely while commodities are flat, or even strengthening.
More importantly, the Canadian $ is getting absolutely brutalized again this week. Which makes me smile, because a) I'm a forex sadist, and b) a high dollar hurts commodity exporters, so brief reprieve might help with their adjustments.
i'm not saying they're stupid, far from it
but if they were so aware of consequences of various kinds, why did the system nearly collapse?
or was the near collapse another conspiracy?
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The sharp headwinds facing U.S. banks are far from over, a Federal Reserve official said Monday, suggesting the difficulties in the commercial and residential loan markets are far from over.
"Two years into a substantial economic downturn, loan quality is poor across many asset classes and ... continues to deteriorate," said Jon Greenlee, associate director of the Fed's division of banking supervision and regulation.
Appearing before a U.S. House panel in Atlanta, Greenlee said the U.S. banking system is "far from robust." Foreclosures and losses from residential mortgages are expected to remain elevated, while sizable credit losses are a real possibility for many firms. The healing process is just beginning, Greenlee said.
"It will take some time for the banking industry to work through this current set of challenges and for the financial markets to fully recover," he said in prepared remarks.
One key area of concern for regulators is the commercial real estate market. There has been increasing agitation that falling real estate prices and the problems in the residential housing market could cause commercial real estate portfolios to sour for firms, potentially leading to more bank failures.
"The losses will place continued pressure on banks' earnings, especially those of smaller regional and community banks that have high concentrations of CRE loans," Greenlee said.
Regulators took steps Friday to address the issue, releasing new guidance that will allow banks to consider commercial loans as "performing" even if the property backing the loan has fallen in value. The goal of the change is to encourage banks to rework troubled commercial loans, avoding costly defaults.
Greenlee, discussing commercial market conditions, noted that the prices of existing properties have declined sharply from recent highs "and will likely decline further."
"Some large regional and community banking firms that have built up unprecedented concentrations in CRE loans will be particularly affected by emerging conditions in real estate markets," he said.
nullpointer,
I would like to believe that, and it is in fact what my gut still tries to tell me, but my father who has worked with the 'highest' levels of government in both the congressional and executive branches, says intelligence is not the primary factor, it is who you know and if you can be 'trusted' to play the game. He actually views this as an 'evil of necessity' since such incompetence prevents the government from moving rapidly on any issue...conspiracies are the comfort fairy tales people like myself cling to, because the ugly truth is too much to handle. Life is high school and small town politics at every level.
but if they were so aware of consequences of various kinds, why did the system nearly collapse?
or was the near collapse another conspiracy?
Being aware of consequences is different than predicting - with certainty - what WILL happen WHEN. The skill of these people is in capturing the government over the last 30 years, not what has happened THIS year. The individual participants have different levels of skill and SOME aren't going to be able to keep the looting process going (looting measured - NOT in bonuses - but in the total percentage of the country's wealth owned by the nobility).
These people are mix of players and nobility. But, the game isn't the individual banks, or players, or bonuses; it is who OWNS the country, and how much of if they do own.
they know exactly what they are doing, and are fully aware of any "unintended" consequences
Well, they might be smart but they're not at the deity level.
You're proposing that they're smart enough to pop the hood, stick on their super-engineer hats, and determine the causal linkage between every gear, sprocket, cam, injector, wire, transistor, and hose.
I picture them more as a set of smart doctors attempting to do a spinal-cord transplant on a conscious patient. Not only is the procedure untested, we don't even have enough supporting evidence to know what to cut, what to suture, or how to even attach the cord to the brain stem.
The probability of success is 0. The doctors might know this (or at least guess this) so they tell the family they're going to do their best and give them 50/50 odds. They then walk into the surgery knowing they are almost certainly going to kill the patient.
The media is cheering because so far the doctors have cut open the patient's back, moved the muscle, and are working on opening the spinal column.
"Yay, he's still alive, and when they're done he'll walk again! It'll be an immaculate recovery!"
(how's that for the most muddled metaphor of the day?)
They didn't create the cow. They didn't build up the herd. They just milked it and as the cows got old they sold them to McD's. Now we are running out of cows. They are not creators and they will be gone with the herd. Someday, in a few generations the herd will be fat and they will be back
The sales pich may be introuble...maybe 3000 banks with some kind of seroius CRE default problems?
What is this 'merchants of fear'(MoF) thing? Well most MoF and their sales team, the Defenders of the Status Quo(DoSQ) sell 'bad' over-priced, inneffective products and services with a 'fear sales pitch'(possibly with tricky stats)...
And I should have added, Chicago, that I think this is an important question. But this--changing of the statute of limitations--could simply be argued as necessary due to the complex nature of financial transactions these days. It's no longer a simple matter of flipping through a few sets of books. Now it's gigabytes-worth of data and reams of emails just to figure out which shell companies have been set up to do what. The justice system is merely responding to these changing conditions.
If RICO is used, I think some of these issues are resolved:
In recognition of the unique nature of RICO's pattern of racketeering activity requirement, the United States Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit undertook an effort to formulate a completely original accrual rule for civil RICO claims. In Bivens Gardens Office Bldg., Inc. v. Barnett Bank of Florida, Inc., 906 F.2d 1546 (11th Cir. 1990), cert. denied, 500 U.S. 910 (1991), the Eleventh Circuit agreed with the Keystone court in that the simple "discovery of injury" rule failed "to recognize that an injury to a plaintiff from a single predicate act does not evolve into a RICO injury until a 'pattern' of racketeering activity has developed." Id. at 1553. The Eleventh Circuit, however, was also critical of Keystone's "last predicate act" rule because it enabled a plaintiff to sit back and wait for a defendant's last predicate act before filing an action, even though the plaintiff could be wholly aware of its injury and the defendant's pattern of racketeering activity for decades before bringing its claim. Rather than adopting either the "discovery of injury" rule or the "last predicate act" rule, the Eleventh Circuit developed and adopted the "discovery of injury and pattern" rule:
If RICO is used, I think some of these issues are resolved:
That's interesting Cinco, thanks. Although it seems to be critical of the plaintiff bringing a last-ditch motion, as opposed to expressly extending the amount of time necessary for discovery.
But I'm no lawyer, and I didn't even stay at a holiday inn express last night
No way I'm first...
This is just a normal, run-of-the mill recession so all the historic correlations still hold.
Down goes Frazier?
CR thanks for the insightful analyses and your patience with all of us in the commentariat...
Anyone care to speculate why the markets surged, with the Dow up almost 147 points, and then faltered and are falling. Are most investors looking for a way out while the markets are up? That would indicate a complete lack of confidence and a belief that things ARE going to get worse.
Anyone?
Chump pump failure.
Frazier might have a very hard time getting back up this round--it's not a phantom punch that is flooring him.
shill wrote:
It's the devil squid. I'm sure of it.
Down goes Frazier?
Every hedge fund and prop trading desk on Wall St. is trying to lock in gains and a huge year end bonus. The thing is, everyone can't fit through the exits.
Timmay heard that Lassie just got picked up by the pound, how nice of them to be a scarecrow buyer of our instruments of debt, when nobody else wants them?
shill,
The movements today were 100% in sync with what USD was doing against the AUD.
Open with FXA (AUD) up 90c.
Currently FXA decaying back to up 14c. (Dollar strengthening)
CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust - Google Finance
We're a puppet of the FX market.
I always like adding a graph ... I think this was positive for employment, but I'm not sure it is sustainable. And it doesn't mean a huge increase in jobs - more likely just few or no job losses in manufacturing in October.
I'm wondering how much is one-time auto related too.
best to all
I thought the ISM report was very positive. No holes to poke in it. That being said, there is not a lot of time for the private sector to build up any momentum before other GDP factors subtract from growth.
Interesting that it seems suppliers consistently deem 30% of their customers' inventories being "too low", it might be the early signs of what became known as a new normal. Or just a defensive posture for those planning further cuts/closings.
shill - When everyone has a horse in the race all the horses have to win together
cthulhu sighting:
Japanese fishing trawler sunk by giant jellyfish - Telegraph
I think Jesse answered my question
Jesse's Café Américain
Wow. Since I was first, I feel obliged to comment on the topic now... grave responsibility. Seems like a statistical blip to me more than anything else, not that I have special knowledge. I just don't see any real manufacturing returning without some sort of major shift in current policies and mindset. And TPTB are totally invested in the cheapest labor they can find, be it overseas or by lowering the standard of living of the working class in the first world to where we are competitive with Chinese and Indian peasants.
Comrade Elmer Fudd wrote:
Wow, Something in the news?
I just love that roadkill-looking bottom graph...
EHP,
Our Government added $1.9 trillion to the national debt over the past 12 months. Additionally, the Fed added ~ $1.3 trillion to its balance sheet. And after all that, all we get is a few measly bounces in random economic indicators.
I think it's all borrowed time. Not a recovery at all, but a further impoverishment via more non-economic debt.
all the indexes going
intraday
aClem
The world isn't flat, income will not evenly distribute within any sub-category while being stable. somewhat related article from today: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/White+Spot+burgers+translate+well+Hong+Kong/2170841/story.html
CalculatedRisk wrote:
I'm curious about the impact of the auto-related component when it retracts. Where I grew up, in the heart of the Canadian manufacturing district, a good number of companies derive their income from auto companies, auto company suppliers, or their suppliers. And even those that are diversified might still collect 50% of their income from one of those tiered suppliers. It's all connected and, given enough leverage involved, there is little difference between losing 30% of your revenue and losing 100%, except the number of months you can last before shuttering.
We'll see, but given that we're probably going to have an election up here in the next 4-12 months, it could easily change the political fortunes of the ruling party.
Community Bank of Florida Bad Loans Grow 28%
Community Bank of Florida bad loans grow 28% - South Florida Business Journal:
Comrade Elmer Fudd wrote:
Vast numbers of Giant Jellyfish. The GS devil squid. Ct-Hu-l-Hu. There's definately something going on here.
Angry Saver,
Do government employees not spend their $? I see what you're saying, but we are in unconventional times. I would rather they have spent a $4tn lump sum, and then had a clear path of progress. Now we have a pot of lukewarm coffee. Little flavor, too cold and too warm at the same
time -- all in all very unsatisfying and a waste of inputs
Well truthfully, what I would have considered the best course of action would be to do wholesale debt renegotiation, with the 2 primary goals being to leave a functional system (I consider debt slavery to be disfunctional) and not to reward irresponsible behavior. Something like affixing a clause to all loans that cuts principal for all deflation beyond 2% and increases to principal for all inflation above 4%.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Interesting comment:
Cynthia is more blunt about doing business in China. “We don’t need the headache,” she said. “My children are from Canada, they are too trusting.”
EHP, yes, I know it isn't flat. My generalization was just a generalization with a little hyperbole thrown in for good measure. It seems clear to me, however, that substantial manufacturing will not return until either the cost of labor rises elsewhere (won't happen in any significant way) or working class wages fall in the first world. Of course, the asteroid could hit or the Alpha Centaurians invade and make it all academic.
I've got a hot date with a 1,200 year old, at her place.
See ya~
CR-
I assume that you went to the effort of separating pre- and post-1989 for a reason; but then didn't make a distinction when fitting a straight line to the data in total.
The green dots represent a period that manufacturing employment has had a negative bias. Based on your chart I'm guessing that it has largely to do with automation. When the ISM index is < 50 there is economic pressure to dump employees. When it is >50, they find that they are able to run the machines a little harder with the manpower that they currently have.
It looks like when the index has been >50, there is essentially zero increase in employment over the last 20 years.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
120 handle dude.
The jobs that were shipped overseas
Were transferred with relative ease.
With very few constraints
The only complaints
Came from the losers of these ~
If only there was some way to significantly lower peoples' housing costs.
is this affected by the Cash 4 Clunkers program?
Comrade Elmer Fudd wrote:
Nice volumes on that downward slide-
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
What's the number of handles in which individual ones become imperceptible?
Oh, I should have added a third option... industrial policy. Open fire, free traders.
Here is the problem with this analysis. Hours worked at all time low. No need to hire anybody for the most part. Just increase hours. Yes, the relationship is there, but I bet if you put a third access in regarding the capacity utilization rate or hours worked level, you'd see that we arent yet in the phase of adding workers. (aside from c4c related auto jobs temporarily brought back.)
aClem wrote:
I missed something. 3rd option? What was the first two. I looked back on your comments but don't see the other two.
,rad NOT,
People tell me it'll never work, this ultimate May to December romance...
aClem
It's more clear to me with the perspective that manufacturing in the US -- well the entire OECD minus Korea, Mexico -- has been on the decline for decades. Until this point that the economy was only sustainable through import seller-financing. So I think manufacturing will become a more important, and better compensated relative to the rest of the US economy. That doesn't mean manufacturing wages must fall, but that the cost of living for manufacturing employees must fall. There's a lot of overpaid dead weight who could be sacrificed to make that possible.
China is facing some very large adjustments that I don't think enough people appreciate. Expecting the last big trend to be the next big trend is generally where forecasts go wrong.
Why, isn't she evergreen?
NR, rising wages in '3rd world' and/or falling wages in the '1st.'
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Live for the moment. That's always my advice (which I never personally follow).
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Look where they had to source ingredients from. China was probably lower on that list than Ethiopia
TARP Diem!
Cash for clunkers blip ? I was under the impression that C4C drew down existing inventory rather than spur more new manufacturing.
Is there any supporting analysis on which manufacturing sectors actually added the jobs ? Defense, burger flipping, aeronautic ?
~splat
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
I did, and now I have children.
Even Obama is not buying it:
Obama: Hiring last to come as economy rebounds - Yahoo! Finance
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
of course, one of many aspects of our deep-rooted idiocy is that we're spending tens of billions with the continued first-time homebuyer tax break to make sure that housing in flyover land isn't affordable, and that the truly crappy parts of the coast where this program actually supports prices (and where manufacturing labor could also be housed) also stay significantly above affordability for an $18/hr wage.
aClem wrote:
Ah. got it. In my perfect world, I'd have to go with your door number 3. Any country that doesn't provide jobs for it's average and below average people - at wages that provide a decent living - is just asking for trouble.
Of course, we're WAY beyond that now, but if I were King that's what I'd try to address.
word
Well truthfully, what I would have considered the best course of action would be to do wholesale debt renegotiation, with the 2 primary goals being to leave a functional system (I consider debt slavery to be disfunctional) and not to reward irresponsible behavior.
EHP,
That would have been preferable to taking on trillions in public debt to preserve the value of fraudulent credit. Credit which is primarily the wealth of the top 1/10th of one percent.
That said, there is no solution. No magic bullet that will undo the damage. The cardinal sin was allowing too much bad debt to pollute the system. Bernanke, Greensham, the Fed and the banksters need to be held accountable not rewarded. Holding them accountable would go a long way to preserving faith in our political system, capitalism and our Country's founding priciples.
picosec, I felt things had changed, and I just picked 20 years randomly. The range for the ISM employment index is much narrower (it has really been much above 50 for the last 20 years) - in the old days it was at 60 and 70!
The equation is for all of the data. If you use the equation for the last 20 years - you are right - this suggests employment is still declining, but by far less than the 50K per month we've seen.
best wishes
splat
Around August, or maybe July even, during the early clunkers days auto manufacturers upped production that would be consistent with 12mn USA SAAR auto sales. So inventory should have grown in October. There will be enough inventory for extended winter plant shutdowns. So add that on to the list of double-dip guarantors
Free Trade is seen as the way
To humble all labor today.
If you can't compete
Then you just don't eat,
Much less have a warm place to stay ~
If there is no solution, there is no problem but the one in our minds
I would rather say "there's no easy way out"
barfly wrote:
Yeah. Compete. THAT was the mantra 30 years ago when it was just those UNION LOSERS getting out-sourced. I still remember being so thrilled about screwing THOSE LAZY UNION BASTARDS when I was a young Republican. I can still feel that, that, meanness. It was glorious!
nothing so thrilling as self-righteous indignation ~
EHP, I am a big fan of yours and out of my league in any discussion of this sort. Nevertheless, being foolhardy, I will continue. I can't argue that lower cost of living would allow lower wages and therefore a possible return of manufacturing, to some degree. I see it as more of a political problem, though. Not to get too deep into the doo doo, but those who have the real power have no interest in where things are made right now, just as long as they (TPTB) do well. If this means lowering costs at home or off-shoring, or some combination of the two, they will follow the profit.
Obviously, things are not one dimensional and I have never felt China or India was going to replace the 1st world in terms of standard of living. My own feeling, and it's just a feeling, is that we are ALL headed downward, at different speeds with lots of bumps and turns. The current situation is a collapsing house of cards. What comes next is nothing I can predict, other than it won't be all that swell for most on the planet.
barfly wrote:
And the feeling of superiority. THAT was great too.
(Edit: sigh... I miss the good ol' daze. Life was simpler then)
9700 tested and held! DOW 36,000, here we come!
Monty Hall snuck in just before Alan Thicke, both early invaders from the Gulag Hockeypelago...
YouTube - Let's Make A Deal: 2 funny contestants
California Grabs 10% More From Taxpayers' Paychecks
TaxProf Blog: California Grabs 10% More From Taxpayers' Paychecks
looks like
slipped out of 
grasp
1:17p Citigroup shares fall 6%, drop under $4
Will C become a penny stock again?
Twenty ChiNext stocks drop by daily limit
FT.com / Markets / Asia-Pacific - Twenty ChiNext stocks drop by daily limit
If there is no solution, there is no problem but the one in our minds
I would rather say "there's no easy way out"
EHP,
We either let the bad debt deflate or we make the majority that do not benefit from it pay for it over many years. Again, the damage is done. The bell can't be unrung. There is no solution, only outcomes (bad and worse imo).
Monty Hall problem - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Funny, that.
And the feeling of superiority. THAT was great too.
the only way to make yourself feel big is to make others feel small ~
Angry Saver wrote:
If congress wanted to do anything productive, it'd be to work with the State of New York to remove the statute of limitations from fraud, professional malpractice, and breach of contract, or at least make sure that a person involved in any sort of corporate fraud within Wall Street could be held liable 20 years in the future. Then commission a special 'evidence collecting task force' to drive around and visit all banks receiving (or who have received) money from the TARP and subsequent federal programs.
They don't have to even do anything, just look like they're doing something, and that should be enough to cause half the Wall Street crooks to die from worry ulcers within a year or two.
That is why the government pushed No Adult Left Behind. How's that working?
Meta-observation.
First thanks to CR for all he does.
This latest correlation, and r0.48 is pretty convincing, unfortunately illustrates what I was talking about when I said, "flying the instruments and not the airplane." The data tell us what should happen but we are flying someplace where the instruments have never been tested.
Wow. Makes me glad I never readjusted my withholding after flatlining it early this year as a hedge against my '08 refund showing up as an IOU. I was likely to owe a bit come April. This should come close to evening things out.
Cough " VIX " cough.
Would this even pass a constitutionality test?
Flying under the hood whilst financial instrument training, is dangerous when crash-test dummies are all too real...
Wow, what a roller coaster.... guess a little after lunch indigestion.. little early for Jacob Marley to be visiting?
Would this even pass a constitutionality test?
take the no child left behind route. you want money? then change your laws.
Would this even pass a constitutionality test?
It's cute that you think that still matters.
Chicago Dude wrote:
What would the squid want, tho; THAT is the real test.
,rad V777,
No man, it's the other Marley~
(swerves all over keyboard-just missing a vowel, obviously under the influence...)
Constitutions have never mattered. It's always been the people who would stand up for the constitution that mattered. Same goes for every symbol
Chicago Dude wrote:
Probably not. A man can dream. Maybe if we refer to it as the Wall-Street Gang-Rape bill we might have better odds.
.. little early for Jacob Marley to be visiting?
maybe, but it's never too early for Bob Marley to be visiting
YouTube - Bob Marley - Work [05]
what would gee-ess (
) do?
"stocks advanced early after a trio of positive surprises economic reports, but gave up those gains after Jon Greenlee, associate director of the Fed's Division of Banking Supervision and Regulation, said U.S. banks are at risk of large new loan losses, particularly on commercial property."
ya think?
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Yeah, you're right there. I can remember many people agreeing that it WAS just a piece of paper. How sad. I guess it does take a well informed electorate (with some brains) to actually have a constitutional government after all. The citizens can't just let things run on auto-pilot and expect anything other than eventually hitting a mountain. (continueing with the airplane analogies here).
Dow 9,729.51 +16.78 (0.17%)
Thank goodness about Ford! We would be down 100 points if they didn't report record "manufactured" profits in manufacturing?
GOT GOLD? Because they don't "manufacture" a lot of gold these days, and that's good!
Choppy choppy! Mr. Market calling Benny's bluff? Gotta tank the dollar to keep the good ship Lollipop afloat any longer....
Did anyone catch Turbo Tax Tim on Meet the Press? I swear hid forehead has grown.
Comrade Elmer Fudd wrote:
List of Texas ratios for all US banks - The Sovereign Speculator
I think Federations sound much cooler than Republics fwiw
Central Banks Will Become Net Buyers of Gold, WGC CEO Says
Central Banks Will Become Net Buyers of Gold, WGC CEO Says - Bloomberg.com
Chicago Dude wrote:
And I should have added, Chicago, that I think this is an important question. But this--changing of the statute of limitations--could simply be argued as necessary due to the complex nature of financial transactions these days. It's no longer a simple matter of flipping through a few sets of books. Now it's gigabytes-worth of data and reams of emails just to figure out which shell companies have been set up to do what. The justice system is merely responding to these changing conditions.
I'm booking a room for a non-weekend night to a Pavlovegas-adjacent casino-hotel in a couple of weeks, for the princely sum of $10.
Everything you'd expect in a $75 room, they might be a little desperate for reinforcement to come back over the green-felt table?
For some reason Sloop John B by the Beach Boys is rattling around my brain today. Another fitting metaphor I guess.
Federations, I like it. Peoples Republic...sounds good but always tastes bad
Blood Funnel
Anyway VIX is telling you to step aside or ride the tiger. No thanks. The petroleum commodities are beginning to doubt the recovery.
Did anyone catch Turbo Tax Tim on Meet the Press? I swear hid forehead has grown.
Comes of constantly slapping yourself saying; "How could I have been so stupid?"
If only there was some way to significantly lower peoples' housing costs.
867 people/acre in tenements, one toilet/floor w/probably 20-25 people/floor, lower east side of NYC in the 1900's Probably some part of Chicago & Boston. That kind of housing tends to be less expensive than a McMansion for 2 or 3.
Selling the Lower East Side - The End of the Immigrant Era *
*
ouch GDX getting whomped on.
I thought it was from all the 'apply directly to forehead' Headon.
Mrs Market, can 9,600 come out and play?
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
What are you referring too? A new name for the country?
The North American Squid Federation?
The North American Squid Federation?
Then Managers would be tentacles and we would be....suckers.
Eric wrote:
Yes but only for a little while. 9500 and all the other smaller handles get a turn soon.
Anyone visiting NYC MUST visit the Lower East Side Tenement Museum. I was there in 1999 and was incredibly moved, and I don't get emotional very easily.
It's much better known now so check into making reservations well in advance.
Geithner's forehead conceals all the advanced micro-processors installed by Paulson's boyz down at the Pentagon.
Then Managers would be tentacles and we would be....suckers.
We would be chum.
Rob Dawg wrote:
That presumes a degree of self awareness- I am not sure they think they have been stupid
Rob Dawg wrote:
It's that damned futures/spot convergence thing again.
If only we could find a way to keep that from having to happen at the end of every contract, life would be peachy.
That presumes a degree of self awareness- I am not sure they think they have been stupid
It is only a matter of time before they stand proudly on stage at the Kennedy Center and receive the MEDAL OF FREEDOM!
Thank you for saving America!
Thank you for saving America!
we had to destroy it to save it
Timmy, you're doing a heck of a job.
Try not to think of Geithner as a "person" with "thoughts."
The construct known as "Geithner" doesn't function the way a person or a dog or a lizard or a horse functions - it is not "alive" anymore than your desktop computer is alive.
That way lies madness, and you will consistently misunderstand its role in implementing the power structure that is shaping up.
Tim Geithner is doing his best,
Working non-stop, without rest,
To prop up the banks
And getting no thanks
As you, by now, may have guessed ~
number one most amusing trend here (well, on all blogs actually) is people assuming geithner, paulsen, summers, rubin, bernanke etc are dumb
welp! my call for a rally today was right for the first 2 hours!
The PPT boys are really stepping on the pedal today to keep the market from reversing. Just look at the skid marks === " == " === ==== "
I'm sensing a level of doom that might be exceeding the safe standards (as specified in optimistic Patriotic Particles per Member).
Let's all have some patriotic optimism to offset the doom level, before things get out of hand.
Don't forget, we've got the world's best and most stable democracy in the ENTIRE whole wide world, and we have that because of Freedom, Democracy and Freedom.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Look at the macro-economy then wonder why
Eric wrote:
What's weird is that the TSX in Toronto is down severely while commodities are flat, or even strengthening.
More importantly, the Canadian $ is getting absolutely brutalized again this week. Which makes me smile, because a) I'm a forex sadist, and b) a high dollar hurts commodity exporters, so brief reprieve might help with their adjustments.
nullpointer wrote:
Or the Frat Boy for that matter.
nullpointer wrote:
I would characterize them as criminally dogmatic in the face of contrary evidence.
The Saudis Abandoned the NYMEX peg last week
Rob Dawg wrote:
Or, the only possible result of a survival of the fittest society? The faces of the looting class that has won.
you dont get to that level of power by being an idiot
they know exactly what they are doing, and are fully aware of any "unintended" consequences
each and every decision is deliberate, and calculated
I would characterize them as criminally dogmatic in the face of contrary evidence. - RD
the pot calling the kettle black?
i'm not saying they're stupid, far from it
but if they were so aware of consequences of various kinds, why did the system nearly collapse?
or was the near collapse another conspiracy?
Fed Official: US Banks `Far From Robust'
Fed Official: US Banks `Far From Robust' - WSJ.com
Comrade Elmer Fudd wrote:
no. they are not dumb, just incompetent. there is a big difference.
and vetted by the Vampire Squid two days before it is public knowledge!
They didn't count on the foreigners turning off the money spigot to the US so quickly.
yeah, it nearly spiraled out of control
that being said, they aren't about to give up the keys to the Cadillac
Musical interlude for the Hula Hula Boys of Summers...
YouTube - Warren Zevon Performs Hula Hula Boys (Live)
WWCD?
barfly wrote:
Are you sure about that?!
you dont get to that level of power by being an idiot
I've got to disagree with that.
Exhibit A - GWB
nullpointer,
I would like to believe that, and it is in fact what my gut still tries to tell me, but my father who has worked with the 'highest' levels of government in both the congressional and executive branches, says intelligence is not the primary factor, it is who you know and if you can be 'trusted' to play the game. He actually views this as an 'evil of necessity' since such incompetence prevents the government from moving rapidly on any issue...conspiracies are the comfort fairy tales people like myself cling to, because the ugly truth is too much to handle. Life is high school and small town politics at every level.
Comrade Elmer Fudd wrote:
Being aware of consequences is different than predicting - with certainty - what WILL happen WHEN. The skill of these people is in capturing the government over the last 30 years, not what has happened THIS year. The individual participants have different levels of skill and SOME aren't going to be able to keep the looting process going (looting measured - NOT in bonuses - but in the total percentage of the country's wealth owned by the nobility).
These people are mix of players and nobility. But, the game isn't the individual banks, or players, or bonuses; it is who OWNS the country, and how much of if they do own.
or was the near collapse another conspiracy
is the financial sector stronger or weaker now?
if you are still standing, i reckon things worked out pretty well
shine on you jamie dimon, indeed
I assume WWCD = "What Would Cthulhu Do?"
nullpointer wrote:
Well, they might be smart but they're not at the deity level.
You're proposing that they're smart enough to pop the hood, stick on their super-engineer hats, and determine the causal linkage between every gear, sprocket, cam, injector, wire, transistor, and hose.
I picture them more as a set of smart doctors attempting to do a spinal-cord transplant on a conscious patient. Not only is the procedure untested, we don't even have enough supporting evidence to know what to cut, what to suture, or how to even attach the cord to the brain stem.
The probability of success is 0. The doctors might know this (or at least guess this) so they tell the family they're going to do their best and give them 50/50 odds. They then walk into the surgery knowing they are almost certainly going to kill the patient.
The media is cheering because so far the doctors have cut open the patient's back, moved the muscle, and are working on opening the spinal column.
"Yay, he's still alive, and when they're done he'll walk again! It'll be an immaculate recovery!"
(how's that for the most muddled metaphor of the day?)
Exhibit A - GWB
Pretty sure he was just Cheney and Haliburton's puppet.
RockyR wrote:
Only incompetent if the concentration of wealth decreases. Don't confuse league's owners with the game being played or the players on the field.
They didn't create the cow. They didn't build up the herd. They just milked it and as the cows got old they sold them to McD's. Now we are running out of cows. They are not creators and they will be gone with the herd. Someday, in a few generations the herd will be fat and they will be back
west of the fields wrote:
He got better grades than the Nobel winner he beat for the Presidency. Be careful not to mistake torque for horsepower.
west of the fields wrote:
A front for the peasants. A brilliant move on the nobility's part.
Indeed. It was just hard to see Cheney's lips move when W talked, mainly because the sun always dimmed whenever Cheney would come out of hiding.
The sales pich may be introuble...maybe 3000 banks with some kind of seroius CRE default problems?
What is this 'merchants of fear'(MoF) thing? Well most MoF and their sales team, the Defenders of the Status Quo(DoSQ) sell 'bad' over-priced, inneffective products and services with a 'fear sales pitch'(possibly with tricky stats)...
More coffee!
noob goldberg wrote:
If RICO is used, I think some of these issues are resolved:
merchants of fear wrote:
I thought it was from "Thank you for smoking". Oh, wait, that was the Merchants of Death.
Cinco-X wrote:
That's interesting Cinco, thanks. Although it seems to be critical of the plaintiff bringing a last-ditch motion, as opposed to expressly extending the amount of time necessary for discovery.
But I'm no lawyer, and I didn't even stay at a holiday inn express last night
picosec,
I agree. CR should do a second order fit of the green data which would have a horizontal asymtote to the zero employment line. Not good news.