Construction Spending increases in September
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Mon, 11/02/2009 - 7:28am (183 comments)
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good newwqs?
This should be good for 600 on the Dow.
Cit news is backward looking.
All the private contruction came from residential....how much do to subsidy. We know all the public expenditures were taxpayer induced. Without the help of the taxpayer I don't believe we would be jumping up and down on this number.
Anecdotally my neighborhood has been swarming with REO and flip construction. What I don't see is a single new stick anywhere. It is all fix and finish activity.
Heaven knows we need more residential construction......not nearly enough houses out there!
That bottom graph is between a rock and a hard place, grim.
26 minutes from pig to pig! Going to be a speedy Monday!
So....much....bacon....
(leftover slop from last thread...)
Larry Summers strikes me as an award winning milk cow, that produces a dozen gallons a day, but somehow manages to knock over 13 of them.
CBC News - Calgary - Real estate market in recovery: CMHC
Prices always go up, dontcha know?
All the super rich who waited for lot prices to crater are building their bankerdomes.
What Summers said about women in science--or lack of--was not worthy of the anger it produced. It's a strange time when saying something inquisitive gets you into more trouble than screwing up a country's economy.
I've heard of what goes on in the Gulag Hockeypelago, high-sticking of values, and other frozen water-boarding techniques that you claim aren't torture, but do it anyway.
Just say no the Great White North
Residential spending looks pretty L-shaped to me. Even when inventory clears up, there's not much there, demographically, to push it up again. Every year that does by, the boomers get older, and spend less. The generation coming up is smaller. By the time the economy shows signs of life, maybe in 5 years, that trend will be well entrenched.
The slow down in Canada in general, and Alberta in particular has not been nearly as pronounced as the states. House prices took about a 10% hit 2 years ago and have been creeping up ever since.
Rob Dawg wrote:
High labor content though - directly into locals pockets.
Farmers grow crops even when the markets tell them that they will lose money at harvest. They do this because they believe that the only way you can make money is to have crop in the bin ready to rush to market when prices strengthen. The delay between planting and harvesting means that if you wait until prices are favourable to grow crops before planting them, you might run the risk of having prices back in the dumper by the time you're ready to harvest. The only time farmers break this cycle of planting while market prices are below the cost of production is when they run out of money and no one will lend them another penny.
I see a lot of similarities between agriculture and the CRE market right now. I should add that farmers who operate in this fashion are perennially broke.
Has anybody else noticed what seems like perfectly ok streets being ripped up and re-done in the past few months, on account of stimulus money being spent on shovel-ready jobs?
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
If you can think of a better way of extracting information from n'er-do-wells then by throwing ice cubes at their heads, I'm all ears.
Boot-save to the head!
(and a beauty)
noob goldberg (profile) wrote on Mon, 11/2/2009 - 10:45 am
I see a lot of similarities between agriculture and the CRE market right now. I should add that farmers who operate in this fashion are perennially broke.
s/perennially broke/given yearly subsidies/
FTFY
Deja vu....
Construction Spending increases in August
The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during August 2009 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $941.9 billion, 0.8 percent (±1.8%) above the revised July estimate of $934.6 billion.
Today's "increase" was to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $940.6 billion.
August's "increase" to $941.9 billion was from July's initial estimate of $958 billion.
Monthly increases all the way down.
At least the size of the downward monthly revisions is getting smaller. Maybe that's a green shoot.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Farmers ask for a little bit every year. Wall Street saves up and asks for 100 years-worth all at once.
But I should add that it's very hard to target subsidies to the people whom we would all consider to be 'farmers'.
I've noticed in a poorer state that roads/improvements are piece meal. Our road suck because of harsh winters really requiring 4wd as necessity rather than a luxury. We have a major bridge closure from NY into VT and no estimates on when it will be open again. The big push was in natgat lines being expanded into suburban areas outside VTs largest city by population. One bridge that was closed did get repaired by stimulus funds with out of state contracted workers. It was in dire, dire need but did not provide the same in traffic flows as the other bridge now closed south of this area.
Home weatherization projects are so stupid, I can't even begin to tell of how misplaced and misallocated it is.
dryfly wrote:
Yes but you forget where I live. Local pockets means straight to Western Union and on to Hermisillo.
It never ceases to amaze what people think are valuable "improvements" to residential properties. Exceeded only by how much value they imagine those improvements add.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
The subsidies become 'capitalized' in land prices - the more subsidy you provide the higher the land prices go until the farmers aren't profitable anymore - even existing farmers who bought cheaper get trapped - they tend to refi up to the higher valuations in 'bad years' to cover losses... they never make enough in the good years to pay it back down. Its insidious. Won't change either - the biggest beneficiaries of farmer indebtedness are banks [shock - surprise] and equipment producers.
Mother of all carry trades faces an inevitable bust By Nouriel Roubini
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/2/2009 - 10:50 am
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
s/perennially broke/given yearly subsidies/
Farmers ask for a little bit every year. Wall Street saves up and asks for 100 years-worth all at once.
...They ask every year, but some years are luckier than others - It's good to be king.
Though the masses grow distrustful and think them inefficient and expensive bureaucracies, Wall Street likes governments so much it thinks everyone should own one.
ISM = Inspired Stock Manipulations
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
LMAO!
Rob Dawg wrote:
You got a problem with lawn trolls!?
Here are CR's headlines on this topic for the past several months:
Construction Spending increases in September
Construction Spending increases in August
Construction Spending in July
Construction Spending Increases Slightly in June
Constructon Spending Declines in May
But here are the initial seasonally adjusted monthly estimates on which those headlines were based:
April: $968.7 billion
May: $968.7 billion
June: $965.7 billion
July: $958 billion
August: $941.9 billion
September: $940.3 billion
What's funny about this is that the only month the headline called a decrease was the only month the number didn't go down.
dryfly wrote:
Quoted for truth. This is always the outcome of a direct-payment subsidy, and you'd be shocked how many times I've had to explain why simply shovelling money to a sector as a direct payment will have nasty undesirable outcomes.
However, even if a subsidy could be envisioned that avoided the capitalization issue, it's incredibly difficult to figure out who should get it. The label 'farmer' is about as generic as 'homeowner', and just as difficult to design policy for.
Since the government can't figure out who needs the money and who doesn't--and the sector carries a lot of weight in terms of rural votes--they just shovel money at it until the whining becomes bearable. It's the same in every developed country.
So if the state and local agencies subsidize a new project with millions in grants and tax breaks, in the interest of taking credit for "new jobs", is that still 'private" non-residential construction spending? I mean, I know any financial gains will be private...
noob goldberg wrote:
No0b,
Ever check this out?
Ludwig von Mises Institute - Homepage
Seems like you might appreciate it-
I don't see it here in socal, one of the option arm bubble capitols of the nation. With a new tax increase, UE 12/22% and businesses continuing to flee the state it's not happening. I do see large expenditures on CRE "for sale or lease" billboards springing up like green shoots.
dryfly (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/2/2009 - 10:53 am
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
The subsidies become 'capitalized' in land prices - the more subsidy you provide the higher the land prices go until the farmers aren't profitable anymore - even existing farmers who bought cheaper get trapped - they tend to refi up to the higher valuations in 'bad years' to cover losses... they never make enough in the good years to pay it back down. Its insidious. Won't change either - the biggest beneficiaries of farmer indebtedness are banks [shock - surprise] and equipment producers.
Yes indeed - These sorts of socialist policies are laced with catch-22's and unintentionally create lots of perverse incentives if allowed to persist. You'd think we would learn, but free money never loses its appeal, nor does the delusion of an omnipotent government.
Well the neighbor and I will be stimulating the economy to the tune of roughly $10k. I came home Friday night and noticed some spray paint on my sidewalk. Saturday I decided to try and figure out what it was all about and followed the markings around the corner to my neighbors house.
His wife was home when the marks were made - it turns out one of neighbors was unhappy with the condition of the sidewalks and called the county. The county decided that several flags were indeed trip hazards and marked the offending sections of sidewalk. If the neighbor and I don't take care of it ourselves the county will do it at the rate of $135/section.
Admittedly there are a few sections that are raised up due to tree roots - trees planted by the county - but they marked sections that were lifted no more than in inch. The part that really annoys me is that there is plenty of sidewalk on the same block that is in just as bad if not worse shape - if the county is going to ding us for ours they should survey the entire neighborhood.
I'm thinking its payback by the women who I confronted after watching her fail to clean up after her dog numerous times.
Oh well - I'll have a chance to see how desperate contractors in my area are for work - when I was a bit younger and did masonry for a living we charged $75 per flag/section - that was 20 years ago. I'm hoping to get it done for @ $100/flag.
Cinco-X wrote:
I'm a recovering Austrian, Cinco
Knowing that a policy is undesirable is different than explaining to a group of angry farmers/homeowners/bankers that you aren't going to give them money to ease their hurt. I've found that strong ideologies don't tend to last very long in the public policy arena. To survive any length of time demands pragmatism.
Note that construction spending includes renovations, major repairs (new roofs), replacement of major systems (including water heaters), etc.
If you look at the link below, you can see spending on new residential construction was relatively flat, but overall spending was up, so almost all the increase m-o-m was from Improvements.
http://www.census.gov/const/C30/privsa.pdf
This does not surprise me at all.
What would be amazing is the stimulus we would get in this country if the banks were forced/allowed to liquidate all their REOs. The private residential construction boom from investors and new owners upgrading their housing would generate an enormous number of jobs, at least in the short term.
Instead we allow our housing stock to decay, all to help save the banks.
noob - For every page of Austrian propaganda you subjected yourself to, read a page of Keynesian/Monetarist propaganda. It worked for me.
That's not "socialism"--it's government intervention.
Mike, what about concrete grinding? That's the common practice here in CA; I'm thinking it would be a lot cheaper.
Mel - Government intervention of any kind is a 'socialistic policy' by nature. You can't legislate freedom without giving up control.
Socialism is not government intervention. Is paying insurers more to handle medicare patients also socialism? It's analogous to subsidizing farmers.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Once I figured out that Ludwig was never subjected to people shouting and holding placards, or grown men telephoning in tears because they are about to lose their livelihoods due to circumstances beyond their control, the deprogramming went quickly.
OT: I've performed my Act o' Futility today and written letters to my Senator critters (I'm in the SE US, remember) in regards to Republicans For Rape.
.
Is it an act with little value? Maybe.
Will it change anything? Probably not.
Will I even get a coveted form letter response that has nothing to do with my letter? Possibly?
.
However I am reminded of a non-fiction story about a woman who spent every day cleaning her house and polishing her silverware during the worse parts of the GD. At that time, caring about appearances for social events that would never happen and about having a presentable home that no one would visit was just as much an Act of Futility, but it allowed the woman to maintain some such of dignity and pose in the face of a soul-crushing environment.
.
I am just as cynical as anyone else here, but I might as well go down swinging in support of what I believe instead of just boycotting what I don't support.
http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2009/10/22/BubbleWillBurst/
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/2/2009 - 11:14 am
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
noob - For every page of Austrian propaganda you subjected yourself to, read a page of Keynesian/Monetarist propaganda. It worked for me.
Once I figured out that Ludwig was never subjected to people shouting and holding placards, or grown men telephoning in tears because they are about to lose their livelihoods due to circumstances beyond their control, the deprogramming went quickly.
That would do the trick I suppose. We are human, after all. And if you're not, and consider compassion a weakness to be exploited, there are prestigious and lucrative ways your prejudices can be exploited to serve the ruling class.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Detroit (and other cities) have plenty of hovel-ready jobs.
Here you go, JD, some validation for your irrational fear of the Great White North:
Canada -- Red Tape Country.
Apparently we're being a giant pain in the ass to the poor Dutch, who want nothing more than a venue for their athletes and citizens to get hammered in during the Olympics.
zephyrum wrote:
Thanks for the tip. I'll have to check it out.
Treasury $2.4B pump to CIT - wiped out == PRINTED MONEY!
noob goldberg wrote:
Are you "In the public policy arena"!?
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Even if you hold on to those ideological foundations, there are always methods of rationalizing those sorts of programs. Like "I'm going to support this subsidy because it's attached to long-term programs that will minimize this type of problem in the future". Except the long-term provisions are usually gutted, or are mangled by bureaucrats, or aren't embraced by the target audience and go no where. And so the cycle repeats itself until you end up with the 2008 US Farm Bill (and similar legislation in Canada).
Cinco-X wrote:
Yes, I'm a lobbyist.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Sure, but don't forget to read Mish as well-
Keynesian Model Broken Beyond Repair The Keynesian and Monetarist models are broken beyond repair. It is amazing that so much love exists for a man whose ideas have been thoroughly discredited on many occasions.
Keep on keeping on. I've done such acts of futility. But the dignity you talk about is gone I think for far, far too many to make no such delusional attempts at it. That is the enraging part the consequences of bailing out an elite class whose egos eclipse that of the galaxy we reside in. Dignity is a mind game that was mutated into a consumers game that left all too many empty without a never ending supply of credit to feed what was lacking and unfulfilled, aspects of dignity and self worth they could not even identify.
Oh sorry philosophical ramblings over.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Ideally, freedom ends where where somebody else's nose begins. We need a certain amount of legislation to ensure that everyone's freedoms and rights are equally protected.
,rad noob,
As I am between 49.97% and 50.03% Canadian extraction once removed, I am familiar with your maple-leaf red tape measure shots against those wanting to go Dutch.
Are they expecting trouble with their clogs?
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
It's true, I've been pushing for mandatory bill-splitting for years now. The practice of riding on the expense account of the most well-heeled person at the table has got to end. It's like a hidden tax on being rich, and I'll have none of it.
FYI:
Health Care Reform
42% Support Health Care Reform After Release of Pelosi's Version
jd
not here(south ga) the streets that needed fixing got fixed,of course most was via of the splost tax.
Uncle Ar wrote:
Well I assume that's what they're worried about, which is why they are subjecting all of the Dutch's sinks and drains to strict Canadian standards. We can't have any clogs at the Olympics.
noob goldberg wrote:
Where do you live? I thought it was a hidden tax on China? Hu's money are you spending at the table?
.
D'oh. I forgot.
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/2/2009 - 11:23 am
Except the long-term provisions are usually gutted, or are mangled by bureaucrats, or aren't embraced by the target audience and go no where.
We aren't predisposed to be good at long-term thinking - evolution didn't see the need (with the exception of mate selection, but we've screwed that up too) and neither does present society outside the ruling class (because they need to protect what they have). And of course the politicians are short-time horizon creatures to begin with, and bureaucrats carve out what they can from the parasitocracy.
Greenspan, while head of the Fed,
For once, uncryptically said,
"Regulate not
While the market is hot!",
And kept spiking the Kool-Aid instead.
Wall St. threw up a cheer;
To them it was perfectly clear:
It was full steam ahead,
Until black turned to red,
And exuberance then turned to fear.
Who knows how long it will last?
It's hard to compare to the past.
From what we can see
Our future to be,
We need to do something fast.
And now it's anyone's guess
Just how we'll get through this mess,
But one thing we know,
We have far to go
Before we escape our duress.
~
Geithner looked weak yesterday on MtP.
Did his best to not give clear answers (Gregory did a poor job asking questions - nothing about CRE or TBTF??) and hid behind the 'most economists say ...' a few times. But I about fell out when he said his big worry was that banks were going to over correct and not take enough risk.
The guy that orders surf & turf after everybody else had ordered spaghetti, is hardly neutral when it comes to going Dutch.
Am I missing something here, or did they forget there is a year 2010 coming up?
Ford surprises with $1B profit; sees profit in '11 - Yahoo! Finance
Well, wait for the October auto sales numbers tomorrow, and I think you'll get your answer.
My guess is that 2010 will be tough for the autos, as C4C brought in sales that should have occurred organically in Q409 through Q210.
tncubsfan wrote:
Nope; it takes a long time to turn the steamship around-
bearly wrote:
Not quite: The treasuries still exist, but the obligation from CIT to Treasury does not.
So the money supply just dropped by 2.3B on sunday.
No One wrote:
Ah......this must be why they're pumping the market today....
Crickets Chirping.
cinco-x
sorry not a steamship, it is a very very large super tanker
No One wrote:
Well, wait for the October auto sales numbers tomorrow, and I think you'll get your answer.
Ah......this must be why they're pumping the market today....
News flash: Obama cancels auction of US government on "BTE" news, awards no bid outsourcing contract to his top contributor Goldman Sachs
http://www.miaminewtimes.com/content/printVersion/1960193
gabyjan wrote:
I think you get the point
It looks as if our rent-a-czar Karzai comes with unlimited milage.
"gabyjan (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/2/2009 - 9:44 am
reply ignore user
cinco-x
sorry not a steamship, it is a very very large super tanker"
with a leaking hull and a captain called Hu and a guy sitting in the crows nest called Geithner and j6p American shovelling coal down below.
Obama speaking, Blinking more often and avoiding looking straight into the camera. May be teleprompters location. May be some of the things on it makes him uneasy too look people in the eyes any longer while reading it.
Asking why wallstreet is pumping the market is akin to asking why a dog licks it's balls.
When does the second Stealfromus errr I mean stimulus kick in?
A new phase of a development project - which I drive past occasionally - was started recently in West Sacramento. So, somebody is getting loans and has enough hopium to keep building. Life goes on....
poic wrote:
conventional answer: because it can
real answer: because it feels good
poic wrote:
Are we still talking about Ford!?
shill wrote:
Well, you're slightly paraphrasing the headline, but that is quite an interesting article:
JD
"It looks as if our rent-a-czar Karzai comes with unlimited mileage. """
but sadly with no collateral damage insurance
I'm thinking more like the crew rowing on the "Deez" in Waterworld
No One wrote:
Wait until all the C4C autos hit the wholesale used channel. Nothing kills new car sales like a massive oversupply of late model used vehicles with marked to market cost bases. The industry is ruthless and brutally honest.
Obama is stuttering.................were
Rob Dawg wrote:
But at least the ISM numbers are up as car-makers feverishly try to rebuild depleted lot stock.
That's
, right?
noob goldberg wrote:
I wouldn't be surprised if this were simply a precursor to socialized banking. Clever-
noob goldberg wrote:
Interesting post. A good summary of what WILL happen. It's funny to see the small banks still thinking they can influence anything. The best thing they could do now would be figure-out how to unload their operations on the government too. Fascism and socialism are inevitable and the people who win, in either of these systems, are those that run the best scams early in the game.
having a brain fart, was GMAC a tbtf 19?
Nothing kills new car sales like a massive oversupply of late model used vehicles with marked to market cost bases.
They'll just get the administration to change the mark-to-market rules for them
energyecon wrote:
Royal Dutch Shell wants to talk to you.
[Whacky RBOB and nat gas futures today eh?]
"I wouldn't be surprised if this were simply a precursor to socialized banking. Clever-"
about time. Screw wall street. Banking should be a utility for the benefit of main street.
Cinco-X
Camden Fine should be sitting pretty, 5000 community banks under his assoc?
take a chapter from the S&L playbook in say '82...
think about those community banks and 6 degrees of separation...
who do you know work for the Big 19?
EDIT
I mean how many people actually know people at the Big 19 outside of the big cities?
Hadn't checked yet, thanks for the heads up - so we are down almost 3% on natural gas - what is RBOB up to?
Eric wrote:
I can just see Timmay in there bidding off his webcam feed as the cars roll by every 20 seconds with his index finger swollen from pressing buy, buy, buy!
poic wrote:
Well, I don't think you'll get THAT kinda socialism. You're going to get REAL Merican socialism. Socialism for the worthy.
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/2/2009 - 12:01 pm
You're going to get REAL Merican socialism. Socialism for the worthy.
Yankee doodle went to town riding on a crony...
,rad Duke,
It seems like the best lose-lose deal would be to see if he can do any better than Benjamins and vice versa.
Karzai couldn't do much worse, and Benjamins could learn how to look dashing in the emperors new clothes...
I can just see Timmay in there bidding off his webcam feed as the cars roll by every 20 seconds with his index finger swollen from pressing buy, buy, buy!
I don't think Timmay actually needs to come to work any more, or look at anything on a weebcam.
They've just propped a brick up over the "Buy" button, keeping it held down.
Citi has a 3-handle again.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
I'm still not convinced that Psalms 37:11 is wrong; as long as they can find a way to hold on to capital, they might survive the failure of the biggest TBTF of all...
Psalms 37:11 -- But the meek shall inherit the earth.
Basel Too wrote:
What is this "handle" thing? Like a love handle? Three rolls?
energyecon wrote:
Nobody wanted to hold into the weekend and now it is bouncing around. I'm thinking epic bull/bear fight. Too many people with what were long positions last year "needing" a higher price and the resources to move the market and on the other side actual delivery takers who are able to just not buy for now.
noob goldberg wrote:
All that intensive "smart amoral scumbag" ninja training, ... Out the window in one weekend?! Did a liberal get to you? What HAPPENED?
noob goldberg wrote:
The part that was too tattered to read on the scrolls: ... "after
is done with it and no one would want it anyway."
Basel Too wrote:
Yup. Here.
Rob Dawg wrote:
If I learned anything from the Simpsons, it's that you can get one of those little drinking birds to hit the key for you and save the effort.
umop apisdn:
thanks. so it looks like they're first of the TBTF to double-dip after the success of the stress test.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
My kid got a fever of a 102 over the weekend, which makes me all maternal and liberal.
Don't worry, it's only Monday. I'll be back to kicking puppies before hump-day.
And history suggests that everyone else just takes it away from them. Being meek and mild isn't all it's cracked up to be.
sdtfs wrote:
You have to admit tho, it's one of the longest running jokes in history. I bet that Sheriff Moral Hazard and the three treasury boyz have a side-splitting laugh over that line occasionally.
NotA realAmerican
handle means that the price is say 3 dollars and change if it's sporting a 3 handle or if a 2 handle 2 dollars and changer...
"and that's Trader Talk with Bob Pisani on CNBC"
....
one thing I've never mentioned on this blog is that I'm considered by many to be a good hoofer...
and I guess they're right in some respects... it was that or the stairmaster at the gym...
about 6 weeks ago I went out with my latest object of desire but she decided to bring her sister
and friend, of course the friend was sporting a 3 or maybe 4 handle.. I found out when
you do a blind spin those handles help out a lot to inform the fingertips otherwise I
drop her (I've got my pride) .. for another time
Suppose everybody had their own remote control guillotines in the 1790's?
The problems that we face today
Are unlikely to soon go away.
From the wars to the banks
We all can give thanks
To the "leaders" who led us astray.
All across the political divide
They're finding it harder to hide,
As the people awake
And are starting to take
A dim view of all those who lied.
Stocks are up ~ 1%. Woohoo! Unfortunately, oil is up 2%. Boohoo!
We're getting poorer. All in a vain attempt to preserve the value of fraudulent bank credit.
sdtfs wrote:
No no, of course not. I see I'm being misunderstood here.
Smaller firms (the meek), whether banks, manufacturing companies, or whatever, have a hard time competing with highly-leveraged and sophisticated multinationals. However, if the system seizes, even for a short while, it would be an extinction-level event for multinational dinosaurs.
However, banks, factories, and retailers of smaller sizes, with closer relationships, could capitalize on this hiccup and grab larger market shares. Much like mammals could replace reptiles within nature's hierarchy.
It doesn't mean the meek would stay meek; quite frankly, I'm convinced this is nothing more than a 100-year cycle that has been going on for centuries. Every time the older generation who experienced these conditions dies off we resume repeating the same old mistakes.
Duke of Con Dao wrote:
Can someone translate this please?
looks like
may be landing a few punches on 
3 or 4 handle == 300 or 400 pounds?
Duke of Con Dao wrote:
It's very clear that we should offer to pay cash for clunkers to Karzai to get the hell out of Afghanistan. There is no democracy there to stabilize, and nothing but a civil war for us to get in the middle of.
My best for a speedy recovery for your young one. NRA
3 or 4 handle == 300 or 400 pounds?
So, thin by American standards?
In the twisted mind of Benjamin Bernanke, preserving the value of fraudulent credit and faux wealth IS saving the eCONomy.
Exactly how is increasing the weight of a giant debt anchor around the neck of our eCONomy going to improve the economic circumstances of the majority?
Bernanke is covering up his own incompetence. He is doing the bidding of his fraudulent banking masters.
Jonathan wrote:
Sounds big for a Cambodian woman, and are we sure it was a woman. Wasn't his girlfriend's sister's friend? Coulda' been a guy, right? And what's a blind spin of those handles mean?
I like to watch hefty heifers lurch their way into humungous SUV's that require them to lift and jerk about 373 pounds of womanhood, up into the drivers seat...
It only looks as if they are wearing 1930's era dictator-pants.
CincoX
I blame it one Dancing with the Stars... women drink a bit too much and think they're a ballroom dancer and
start doing crazy turns usually and wobbly heels, my job is to never allow them to plop to the floor on their bottoms..
and I have thrown out my back a few times to prevent this... (3 or 4 is equal to the rolls on their waste or back,
read it like a blind man to braille)
noob goldberg wrote:
Ah, THAT kinda meek. Let's hope you are right.
Conversely, we might be still be in the "accent of the giant squid dinosaur age" too. We could end-up with our squid, the Euro squid, an Asian squid (or two) all fighting it out for world domination, and all living off their respective peasants. With a few small rodent countries living in evolutionary niches, waiting for the killer-squid asteroid to hit.
JimPortlandOR wrote:
A typical liberal nay-sayer. Don't you want to spread freedom and democracy throughout the world? I'm sure REAL Mericans still do.
Duke of Con Dao wrote:
LOL. How's things there in Cambodia now? Also, do you ever make it to Burma (Myanmar?)
Excess reserves climbing through the roof ... ~$250B increase the last two months . At the rate of ascent might be over $1trillion already. Something about to hit the fan?
FRB: H.3 Release--Aggregate Reserves of Depository Institutions--December 3, 2009
shill wrote:
That was noob's kid. Luckily for humanity, I don't have any.
shill wrote:
When I left this morning he was already looking a thousand times better. There's nothing more simultaneously amazing and frustrating than the immune system of a 2 year-old.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Hmm, Just think if we had an "American Idol" type guillotine... Who would be voted off first?
For the next twelve months, real GDP will grow by 1% according to my model, which would have outperformed every single of the 50 or economists polled by the Wall Street Journal in the past few years. See http://raphaelkahan.blogspot.com/2009/11/gdp-forecast-update.html
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/2/2009 - 12:19 pm
However, banks, factories, and retailers of smaller sizes, with closer relationships, could capitalize on this hiccup and grab larger market shares. Much like mammals could replace reptiles within nature's hierarchy.
Very interesting choice for comparisons, reptile versus mammal. Mammals are parental, emotionally-driven herd animals with altruistic impulses/instincts. Reptiles have little sense of history or community, wantonly overexploit their environment, are present-focused, for the most part have no maternal/paternal behavior, and being "cold-blooded" speaks for itself.
3 or 4 handle?
I would guess a woman of 30 to 49 years.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
I do hold this view as well, but I repress it in favour of more optimistic day-dreams. That dream is a waking nightmare.
For the next twelve months, real GDP will grow by 1% according to my model,
Do you have a model B?
,rad NOT,
Don't be so hard on yourself, you're all you've got.
Cinco-X
time to leave cambodia for a breather... might make it to Burma but I'm a bit tired of the 3rd world struggle right now...
(the handle thing was rolls of fat... nobody here weighs more than 150 as a woman, that is a rarity who happened to
be in my party that time plus I had to pick up the check - whisky and cokes for everyone!!!
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
In the world of gambling and metaphors, it's better to be lucky than good. My use of that metaphor was far more flippant than that, but you've made a believer out of me.
Eric (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/2/2009 - 12:35 pm
For the next twelve months, real GDP will grow by 1% according to my model,
Do you have a model B?
Our economy is a model T, and you can have any color you want as long as it's black.
Roubini Still Partying With Hot Chicks Even Though Market Has Rebounded
increased loan loss reserves? now, that's clearly inflationary.
sm_landlord wrote:
Roubini has poor grammar. He must have been drunk:
http://cache-07.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/7/2009/11/500x_Nouriel_-_hanged_out.jpg
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/2/2009 - 12:37 pm
In the world of gambling and metaphors, it's better to be lucky than good. My use of that metaphor was far more flippant than that, but you've made a believer out of me.
I exaggerate slightly the characteristics and there are exceptions, but as a whole... it would seem nature has arranged for truth to be staring us in the face.
Pick your squid - hey don't blame me, I voted for Cthulhu!
Cthulhu - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Raphael wrote:
A 1% GDP would be pretty bad, but would still be worth some green-shoots. It might be possible for squid's government to keep stimulatin' and result in a 1% GDP. Hu knows. It's up to Hu, really.
energyecon wrote:
Hmmm. Did you notice the spelling of this: Ct Hu l Hu. Coincidence?
energyecon (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 11/2/2009 - 12:41 pm
Pick your squid - hey don't blame me, I voted for Cthulhu!
Cthulhu - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Me too... we need that Cthulhu -> squid -> GS meme to spread.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Our economic situation is quite exaggerated and, although there will be exceptions, I think, on the whole, you're correct.
Anecdotal, from a recent British traveler in Spain:
"For what it's worth the Spanish economy seemed in a more depressed state than that of UK - people out of work, working without pay etc etc largely due to construction being at a standstill. But surely that bubble had to burst some time? "
Aayatollahs and the revolutionary guards are not pleased!
O/T: Very cool shower that I must have
Count Formaldehyde is like a poor man's James Bond, shaken-not stirred.
Oh man, is there some way we can get the fundies all het up about that? You know, like the subliminal devil worshipper stuff that they find in text books and such...
energyecon wrote:
I'll never be able to look at the word "Cthulhu" without thinking of the "Margin Call of Cthulhu".
That is the most clever fantastic avatar I have ever seen, so completely appropriate for the time and place in which it was used.
Sombody go wake up Timmah, the chump pump is faltering...
sm_landlord wrote:
I think that's why Roubini will never be accepted as a true doomer. He's got perspective. Doom no doom, he parties on. He probably even knows he's gonna die and it doesn't really matter what his predictions are. THAT in it self, would keep him from being a full member of the secret society of doomers.
Ahhh, 'more folds than an origami convention' as I would say.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Tell me the shower water doesn't run through those slats into the hot-tub below? Because that'd just be icky.
And where's the latrine?
EDIT: And yes, it wasn't obvious from my post, but uber-cool.
Lassie just got picked up by the pound, how nice of them to be a scarecrow buyer of our instruments of debt, when nobody else wants them?
I don't think that is a hot tub, just a bath tub with jets. Hot tubs need chemical attention.
I imagine the latrine is in another room just as large with its own wall of videoscreens.
energyecon wrote:
Now THAT is an idea!!!! GS is really the devil. This would be a great idea to get started.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
That's probably the one thing I got really excited over! It'd be fantastic to shower at the top of Victoria falls, or take a crap on the middle of an Aircraft Carrier deck. Think of the possibilities!
Hu and only HU, the saving grace if all US consumers go belly up, with Wallstreet ladened with soup kitchens.
But but but, GS is our Government Mamma right now.
MaryAnn wrote:
MaryAnn, how is it you end up popping up after every
after everyone is gone?
And I totally read your first comment as "Wall Street ladled with soup kitchens", which made no sense but somehow made me smile.
I think 'ladle' is a seriously funny word.
MaryAnn wrote:
Government Squid.