I like looking at the 1m dollar homes for sale that are also for rent at $3300 a month...

cr writes: "Since OER is the largest component of CPI, this will apply downward pressure on CPI for some time."

more of the inflation we're not having

Yeah, the was so thick and heavy even I couldn't stand it.

picosec wrote:

That was too much doom for a beautiful Sunday evening.

doom? what doom? we haven't seen doom, yet.

CIT was involved in factoring?

Isn't resorting to factoring the kiss of death?

nova wrote:

I like looking at the 1m dollar homes for sale that are also for rent at $3300 a month...

Then you'll love my neighbor. $1.8m asking, $4500/mo lease:

1332 Fairway Dr, Camarillo, CA 93010 | MLS# 90014145

Doesn't help that the house across the street just sold for half that.

picosec wrote:

That was too much doom for a beautiful Sunday evening.

The opposite of doom is hopium. Only real-estate agents and politicians live in a hopium filled haze. (and cub fans).

CR posted:

This is good news for renters, but this will also lead to more apartment defaults, higher default rates for apartment CMBS, and more losses for small and regional banks.

More good news for renters and savers. Lower rents lead to FEWER defaults by renters. Some win some lose with every new price level.

And if it isn't obvious that my tongue is firmly in cheek: I've been a broken record that small businesses need to revert to having 6-9 months operating cash in the bank.

Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sun, 11/1/2009 - 5:40 pm

* reply
* Ignore user

nova wrote:

I like looking at the 1m dollar homes for sale that are also for rent at $3300 a month...

Then you'll love my neighbor. $1.8m asking, $4500/mo lease:

1332 Fairway Dr, Camarillo, CA 93010 | MLS# 90014145

Doesn't help that the house across the street just sold for half that.

((1,800,000 * 0.05% )/12) * 0.6 (40% tax rate) = 4500/month. Am I right?

BTW:
Since OER is the largest component of CPI

Am I remembering correctly that OER is based on a survey of what current owners think they can rent for?

And yet, the doom continues.

I'm outta here.

CUL8R

PS - cclt - In my case, John Santos w/ Orestes Vilató, who will light up the room!

lawyerliz wrote:

Those a nice upper middle class houses

Sensational Las Posas Estate residence that has been totally remodeled to provide an exquisite estate.

Nikkei is -2.76%

Not a good start to the week.

TJ and The Bear wrote:

Who publishes those statistics

The Census Bureau does an annual report based on Postal Change of Address requests. But if you sneak out in the middle of the night with no forwarding address they can't keep track of you.

SNAFU wrote:

((1,800,000 * 0.05% )/12) * 0.6 (40% tax rate) = 4500/month. Am I right?

We have a seriously sour flip. He bought 18 months ago for $855k. So his carrying costs are $4k/mo plus the ~$250k in renovation. It's just some idiot thinking it's 2005. Probably thinks by listing at $1,889,000 some bottom feeder will low ball at $1.4m and bail out his sorry ass.

Lots of living with relitives, getting a room mate going on in Phx.

Low wages vs still too high house prices. Rents have been going down allot as well. Off about 20% in the last year or so.

Well, goddess knows how they'd describe my house, which is
also a pretty middle class house, sightly smaller inside and
only2 car garage (which has stuff in it, never had a car in it).

For that money, here, you can get a house directly on the ocean,
bigger, exquisite, yadda yadda on that size lot or bigger. And
have money left over.

TJ and The Bear wrote:

Unless everyone's moving out of the country -- or under a bridge -- the average household size has to be growing significantly. Who publishes those statistics and when?

ACS every two years with a year for the data to come out. American Community Survey (ACS)

lawyerliz wrote:

CIT was involved in factoring?
Isn't resorting to factoring the kiss of death?

No more so that running out of cash to pay your payroll-

As usual, the highest paid white people were for charging rent.

i must win in business
i must win when i mow the lawn
if i do not win i am not in control
so i must win
again and again
i don't need more but i must have it
more more
when the game gets old i must win
i must win
everyone else must lose
because i must win
we have met the weapon of mass destruction
and it is us

The farmers are going to love this

By Tony C. Dreibus, Madelene Pearson and Jeff Wilson

Nov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Wheat’s steepest weekly drop since December may be just the start of a fourth-quarter slump as the biggest harvests on record turn this year into the worst for prices since 1990.

Wheat will decline 13 percent to $4.30 a bushel in Chicago by the end of December, according to Emmanuel Jayet, head of agricultural-commodities research at Societe Generale in Paris. Prices had staged the biggest October rally in at least 50 years, rising 26 percent to $5.7475 on Oct. 23, after rain delayed U.S. planting. Last week’s 9.8 percent drop shows the gains were “overdone,” Jayet said.

I worked for a non-profit that on payday everyone raced to the bank to cash their check, You never knew if they had deposited enough to cover all the payroll.

Thanks

Japan is tanking because exporters are falling on the weak dollar. That means a rally in the US. This market is all about liquidity, nothing more, nothing less.

A few miles south of me they would list that cabin at $400k and describe it as "Living Green in Marin"

nova wrote:

Tom,
My favorite of the day was a 1 bedroom cabin that needed work. Water was from a spring. Bathroom was an outhouse for $160,000

I got one of those too: 12 TABLE Mtn, Wrightwood, CA 92397

$150,000. Best part is it a grandfathered cabin on forest land you don't own the lot.

Our roommate goes to the bank on payday to cash her check, for the last couple of months - no funds in the account. it usually clears a day or two later.

She has been looking for a new job, but not much out there.

Byz wrote, in part:

"...so i must win
again and again
i don't need more but i must have it
more more
when the game gets old i must win
i must win
everyone else must lose
because i must win..."

And they say that potlatch societies are irrational.

I'm not sure why we have to restate the obvious over and over. In every business cycle, house prices bottom before rental rates. This is true with or without the first time homebuyer tax credit. It is as natural as GDP bottoming before the UE rate. The real interesting question is when rental rates will bottom out in this cycle (now that house prices already have). That would be a good discussion, also benefitting potential multi-housing investors in this blog. My best guess is that rental rates will hit rock-bottom in Q3 or Q4 2010. That would be the investment opportunity of a lifetime for rental RE IMO.
MfO

You think this business cycle is like the others, Morksie?

Not bad creditcrim

Morksie is a .

nova,

Way OT - the Freya riff was a nice Halloween WTF - I think she will tell you where she wants you to take her...thanks for the stories.

josap wrote:

Rents have not stopped falling. Wages are falling. Jobs are decreasing.

Jeezz. What is WITH the doom here?

Wages won't fall forever. Jobs will come back.

(Note: We had WAY to much doom on the last pig. This pig needs more optimism to offset the previous doom. Otherwise, we'll have a surplus of doom. We're not sure what happens when there's a doom surplus, but we're not going to take any chances by NOT addressing the problem immediately)

lawyerliz wrote:

Morksie is a troll

WHAT? So, anybody that's NOT a doomer is a troll. That's something CNBC would say about a doomer.

NOTaREALmerican wrote:

Jobs will come back.

You believe in Reincarnation, huh? What's going to happen to Bill Gates then?

Mork from Ork wrote:

Not exactly. This first quarter of positive GDP growth is much stronger than after the 2001 and 1990 recessions. I expect the recovery to be much sharper than the ones following last two ones and certainly much much much sharper than the mainstream expects now.

Sure, it could happen. Especially if we have a 1+T dollar deficit for a few more years.

Rajesh wrote:

What's going to happen to Bill Gates then?

He's going to come back as a member of the Illuminati. The pre-enlightenment state.

Not a Real

You are on a roll.

Pavel, I consider you to be pretty darned smart. No snark.

NOTaREALmerican wrote:

This pig needs more optimism to offset the previous doom.

When I walked out this morning, I was whistling a little tune and noticing all the pretty colors of the trees. All the while, Disney birds were swirling about my head. And I said to myself: Self, I'd pay twice as much for my current rental, because where else will I find Disney birds? It's different here.

I too think the doom is a little excessive tonight. The dollar's fall will set up a nice rally tomorrow. In the short term, things will improve; we have pumped trillions into the economy. The medium and long term trends are a bit more iffy.

Proposal aims to curb raids on 401(k)s

Good Banks Fed Toxic Waste And Turned Into Zombies - The International Forecaster

I see same doom as under Carter / early Reagan administrations. Then everybody foretold nothing but doom either. A few years later DJIA almost tripled and GDP rose 50+%, making the deficits much more bearable. If anything, prophets of doom are stronger no only to be at least as much wrong now as they were then.
MfO

Mork,

Please integrate the current state of (personal income - govt social benefits to persons):
energyecon: Yep, its that bad
and
the acceleration of the decline of EMRATIO:
energyecon: EMRATIO - return to cliff diving?
.
...into your thesis regarding a "rocket V" recovery...thanks in advance

Lovely Yentervention this eve.

Mork from Ork wrote:

making the deficits much more bearable.

That's the great thing about deficits. Nobody really cares. As know long as you know Hu doesn't care, I'm sure we won't either. Ya know, I'm thinking if Hu don't care, the market can hit 20k.

Mork:

Reagan's economic miracle was based on creating huge, unsustainable deficits. We are now reaching the logical conclusion, where government spending comes completely divorced from revenue. The long term consequences of running the printing presses full speed indefinitely will be born out over the next few years.

mp wrote:

I don't see a lot of doom, but I do see a lot of failure to address reality.

Reality is overrated, really. Probably nothing really bad WILL happen. We'll just be like Japan.

nikki follows the s&p, not the other way around.

Nuke wrote:

unsustainable deficits.

Bah, don't listen to that. Just WAY too much doom. Nobody knows really. Hu's to say we can't have twice the deficit we've got now?

Reality is overrated, really.

It's overrated if you're not the one signing the checks.

The business cycle upturn is much more broadbased and way too strong to be only based on stimulus money. The stimulus money has not even been mostly paid out yet as it is still tangled up in the usual burocracy. And besides: csince when do CR bloggers believe the politicians BS like: "Only thanks to your all-wise government and its stimulus money have we saved you and the economy." We all know that governments never get anything right. And then you guys in earnest want to credit governemnt with this recovery??? You might as well believe in Santa Claus then. Honestly, the stimulus has almost nothing to do with this recovery.
MfO

Actually, I'll have whatever mork had.

The business cycle upturn is much more broadbased and way too strong to be only based on stimulus money.

What bus did you come in on?

Did you sit next to Sebastian?

Wrong - see the first link above - personal income less government transfers has gone negative year over year for the first time in this recession since the recession of 1948...
edit: here is the link again
energyecon: Yep, its that bad

"Pavel,would wise be a better adjective? I think both apply to you."

Tom, anyone who's survived to be as old as I am without turning into a stuffed parrot has to have been lucky. I count my blessings, and assume they're undeserved.

Mork:

C4F, Feds MBS purchases, QE, FHA loans, support for Freddie and Fannie...

All these interventions have had an effect in propping up demand for cars and houses.

The biggest effect of stimulus money has been in preventing local and state government layoffs.

Yes, I do believe pumping trillions into the economy has an effect.

Mork from Ork wrote:

Honestly, the stimulus has almost nothing to do with this recovery.

You might be on to something there. The top 10% are doing ok now. And, for the last 30 years or so, those are the only ones that matter. The peasants won't really mind having less, they'll just burn the money on stupid stuff anyway. So, IF you are right - which I think you are - we'll see high-end German automotive-iron having increased sales again this month.

yore = yesteryear.

Pavel, your compassion and humility shows that you're smart. They help you to interact with people on a more gentle level and therefore in a more sustainable way. Your love and use of language shows that you're smart, as is obvious to anyone with eyes to see. And your fear of God shows that you're smart, although I only use that tern as a figure of speech. I doubt you actually fear God, Himself. Shall I go on? Smart may not be the right word, though, as Tom Stone suggests, above. Anyway, you get my drift. Much love to you and yours.

energyecon wrote:

energyecon: Yep, its that bad

But, this doesn't separate out the worthy people. If you include the peasant, well sure it will go down. I think Mork (and myself now) know that the people that MATTER are having their incomes rising - which is what historically spurs dynamic economic growth.

"Much love to you and yours."

Barfly, love to you and your loved ones.

Nov 1. (Bloomberg) Monday, November 2, 2009 will begin Gucci's Non-Bag release. The Non-bag is a non-descript cloth container to carry a Gucci bag in. It will have minimal brand markings for the wealthy who no longer wish to flaunt it. Spokesperson Bruse Towepi said "Of course the bag will be marked so people, our clients, will know what it really is." The Non-bag is expected to retail for $7,000 at selected locations.

I understand that kind of luck.

Energyecon: This is the rear-view mirror only. Personal income is a lagging indicator and will only bottom out after the recession. Looking at PI now makes as much sense as for the CDO sellers in 2007 stating that in earlier years everything was fine, so it's going to be fine looking forward too. The art is to find leading indicators that work, both for the general economy and also for CDOs. But I think we do ourselves the same disservice ignoring the recovery now as we did by ignoring the downturn before. And by all means it's clear this was the sharpest recession since the GD. Hence PI also fell really really bad. I want to say it's good to mention this for past developments, but it's wrong to imply and forward-looking value here.
MfO

Tiny
In the wine
Make me happy
Make me feel fine

Tiny
Make me warm all over
With a feeling that I'm gonna
Love you till the end of time

I agree there must be an exit from this excessive level of government spending and intermingling with the economy. Sadly, the health-care bill still shows the opposite of that right now. But you're right we have to start talking about an exit strategy right now.
MfO

This is a balance sheet recession, why do you cling to the view that it will behave like an inventory recession? If you are looking for a consumer led recovery, PI and employment will lead, not lag and they continue into the crapper resulting in additional credit impairment.

Will 'the landlords' become the government?
Anyway, debunking the bunk...
Interlocking...cooperation...links...networks. Imagine how this sounds. Financial cooperation theory. Financial network theory. Financial links theory.
Doesn't sound as ominous and out there as 'conspiracy theory'.
Most Financial cooperation is out in the open. Maybe not the details.
Conspiracy theory is a conversation or analysis stopper.
So call this kind of earnest analysis 'financial networks' theory.

NOTaREALmerican wrote:

It's an excellent discriminator.

see Blazing Saddles by Mel Brooks

pavel.chichikov wrote:

There's a scenario beyond our understanding, in which we are players. We are not the Author.

you been reading too much Kafka

Mork:

I am not arguing that we won't have a short term recovery. I am arguing that it based on huge amounts of free money channeled to unproductive and politically favored sectors of the economy. This shit never works in the long term. You can't on the one hand point to improvements in the C/S index and then state that the stimulus is not driving growth. The increases in C/S are based on abnormally low rates, generous lending by government agencies, and tax credits. All of which were engineered by the government.

Mork from Ork wrote:

But I think we do ourselves the same disservice ignoring the recovery now as we did by ignoring the downturn before.

Well, my batting average is .500 here (to wit, downturn not ignored but rather anticipated) - I see a ledge formed by government liquidity that is not setting the foundation for sustainable recovery - much less an explosive expansion...

volker be nice

Your argument has absolutely no basis in fact.

1. So, I work for ______________ and I am here to spread the news.
2. I will be back later to ___________ my ___________.

Good night all. Old man, early to bed.

Good night, Pavel. Sleep well.

Nah, your tired early 'cause it's no longer daylight savings time.

Morksie is a . I have been told it's unwise to feed them.

It's just some idiot thinking it's 2005. Probably thinks by listing at $1,889,000 some bottom feeder will low ball at $1.4m and bail out his sorry ass.

Welcome to pretty much every listing in west LA. 900k and under = bidding wars! Hot Market! Buy Now! People in LA are morons! 1 million and up? Dead.

lawyerliz wrote:

I have been told it's unwise to feed them.

What is a troll? Somebody who argues for the sake of arguing?

Mork,

This is a tough crowd to awaken to the sunshine. I salute your try and look forward to more. Do you think I should buy Ford or commodities?

NOTaREALmerican wrote:

What is a troll? Somebody who argues for the sake of arguing?

Then I confess: I'm a troll.
But mostly I'm a smartass. Or more accurately, a smartass wannabe.

Edit: And I can't wait for kcoop to create a :smartass: icon.

energyecon wrote:

It's just about all stimulus money...

Exactly and I wouldn't even have a problem with this if it helped reduce personal debt. But it doesn't.

nova wrote:

Do you think I should buy Ford or commodities?

I think you missed the pitch for Multi-Family housing earlier. He needs to sharpen the message to make sure it doesn't get lost.

JBR wrote:

Welcome to pretty much every listing in west LA. 900k and under = bidding wars! Hot Market! Buy Now! People in LA are morons! 1 million and up? Dead.

This is Orkian phenomena which can't be "explained" by doomer economics. It IS possible that maybe Paul Wolfich (sp?) was right. Perhaps America's can create its own reality.

Exactly why it seems difficult to see a recovery, as the overall amount of leverage is increasing, not decreasing - just being shovelled over onto the public balance sheet - the whole thing started teetering because the incomes couldn't support the debt IMNSHO.

Since the toxic waste went everywhere and is held everywhere...the Squid waste is 'international'. The taxpayers have been made into a funding source or a resistant Squid partner or leg. One financial 'theory' may be that the world and all other financial entities and institutions revolve around GS or 'the Squid'. This may be a 'bunk' theory.

Thank you, Nova. But based upon my understanding of the business cycle I am not acting heroically. I am buying a home right now and will ook at rentals next year because it is an excellent chance and risk/reward ratio. In 2004/2005 everybody was buying homes because it was "totally safe" and everybody did it. That's the wrong moment in time. Compare that with now~ people are scared left and right and see the next downturn just around the corner. Not only in this blog, but in the mainstream media. You might say CR blog has gone mainstream. And it's understandable. We have gone through an awful recession and stock market crash. There are very few acting now and you have to defend your actions everywhere. Have your 401k in stocks? Are you crazy? Did you not see what happened last year? Buy a house right now? There are way too many foreclosures. Etc. etc. It's a complete turnaround from recent past. Then you had to defend yourself for renting.

OK, got to bring the kids to bed now. Have a great night altogether.
MfO

merchants of fear wrote:

One financial 'theory' may be that the world and all other financial entities and institutions revolve around GS or 'the Squid'.

I think the world has multiple squids. Competing to be the one squid that rules over all (special note: I don't think the squid itself gets any supermodels).

nova wrote:

I don't know how to turn bullish.

With enough prozac, you could.

mp

Not sure what to think of her, though I may have got a little insight from Der Untergang. I think she was lost.

Byzantine_Ruins wrote:

fiat systems spread the debasement across every extant unit.

But that's very egalitarian, don't you think?

Haha. The worst job I ever had was working for Fred Camner,
the later head of Bankunited, when he was a law partner for
an S & L run by a family which didn't go broke, but sold the
S & L. Ran into an atty who worked there too--early 80s. We
cheered the demise of BankU. More than 25 years and we both
still felt that way.

Apparently it's "Toy with the Troll" night at CR.

NaRm,
This 'arguing' from MoF put in as 'comments' is just an attempt to debunk some 'merchants of fear' theories and attacks on earnest analysis on financial network theory and financial deception theory. The trend in public has been misinformation, narrow focus, blaming the victims, spreading obvious misleading 'theories', simplistic labeling, emotionalism, attempts to silence worthwhile inquiry lines. Fun is made in a blanket way at a certain approach labeled as 'tinfoil' of which most of it is...but not all financial network analysis is bunk.

But that is just it - comparing it with now, we have bidding wars for LA real estate, we have excessive levels of bullishness (the most recent example being the crowing in WSJ about 4Q2009 being 'the Waterloo' for the bears), and in general high levels of complacency because 'the recession is over' - on the basis of sentiment, almost everything happening right now contradicts your thesis, Mork.

And then you guys in earnest want to credit governemnt with this recovery??? You might as well believe in Santa Claus then. Honestly, the stimulus has almost nothing to do with this recovery.
MfO

Silly Mork. OF COURSE we dont think govt or stimulus led to this recovery. We do not think that there IS A RECOVERY, of the stimulated or regular variety.

Next time Monk is here, I need to ask for chart porn.
I like charts.

Rajesh (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sun, 11/1/2009 - 10:09 pm

But that's very egalitarian, don't you think?

Until they get to the part where they destroy confidence in every extant unit of the currency rather than just the ones that are lead washed with tin and declared silver for the purposes of paying taxes? Yes , it's genius. At some point I feel like the external creditors may object, however.

There IS a one quarter artificial boost. We're not crazy.

I am underwhelmed.

Byzantine_Ruins wrote:

the external creditors may object,

We have the global reserve currency and so far the Martians haven't objected.

True story. I had no money. I mean no money. I was 16 and living in a shelter. I got a job working construction. Skilled work with a hammer. I had no clue. I tried. They took me off that and told me to sweep up. An hour later the foreman comes out and says "Get in the truck. I am going to take you back." In the truck as we were driving I ask if I was fired? "Yep." I burst out crying. I am in my 50's and I have only cried once since.

I hope I, and anyone else never has to feel that fear and failure. Too bad. I think that is as much of a dream as everything is going to be okay.

TJ and The Bear wrote:

Non-trolls lurk, learn and better arm themselves before taking controversial positions.

His position is only controversial on HERE. Not amognst the REAL Mericans. Many of the over 40's are slowly talking themselves into happiness. THAT is normal thing to do for humans.

TJ and The Bear wrote:

Put simply, a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll just found that 58% of the public believe the economic recession still has a ways to go

And 42% are NOT trolls. Dumbasses probably, but not trolls.

NOTaREALmerican wrote:

By the way, Eva Braun was a Gucci client."

and Coco Chanel spent WW2 at the Ritz, with her Nazi officer lover...

Well we got Mork now,how long 'til Mindy shows up?

Well after all the media rah, rah, rah, I am glad to see a majority is
believing their lying eyes.

I've felt bad, but not that bad. One of my students years ago,
told us how he had lived in the woods for a while.

Funny thing is NaRM, I'm planning on a home purchase next quarter, but I expect it will be a way to improve my quality of life (that will most likely be a loser as an investment) - because, hey life goes on...

How are you code Otis?

Not only in this blog, but in the mainstream media. You might say CR blog has gone mainstream. And it's understandable. We have gone through an awful recession and stock market crash. There are very few acting now and you have to defend your actions everywhere. Have your 401k in stocks? Are you crazy? Did you not see what happened last year? Buy a house right now? There are way too many foreclosures.

Being a contrarian on this blog puts you squarely in the mainstream. I know people who don't have the first clue about what's going on who believe home prices can only ever go up who want to "get in at the bottom" like you do. Just sayin'...

My apologies if this has been already discussed to death

Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- The chief executive officers of 28 of the largest U.S. banks have been summoned to meet with supervisors at Federal Reserve banks to discuss new rules on compensation, said a person familiar with the matter.
The Fed this month said it will review the largest banks to ensure compensation doesn’t create incentives for the kinds of risky investments that brought the global financial system to the edge of collapse, prompting bailouts of firms including Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc.
By summoning bank chiefs, the Fed is sending a message that it wants the pay reviews taken seriously, said Kevin Petrasic, an attorney at Washington law firm Paul Hastings and a former special counsel at the Office of Thrift Supervision.
“It starts with the CEO,” Petrasic said. “It is not subtle at all to tell the most highly compensated people in the organization, ‘Okay we are starting with you.’”
Chief executives at the Nov. 2 meetings will be briefed on so-called horizontal reviews used by regulators to compare banks and identify those where pay practices differ significantly from the norm, the person said. Among the topics to be covered will be how banks will share information with supervisors.
...
“The government wants to fan out the basic principles of reducing risky behavior and compensation design that supports that, such as stock payments over cash, clawbacks, pay tied to long-term performance,” said David Schmidt, a senior consultant for New York-based compensation firm James F. Reda & Associates.
While the Fed’s proposed guidelines will apply to banks it supervises across the nation, the largest firms will have to describe plans to bring their practices into alignment. The central bank may take enforcement action against banks where compensation or risk-management practices threaten “safety and soundness” and no prompt measures are taken to address them, according to Fed’s proposed guidance.

Has anyone seen a coherent argument as to why compensation reform should be a cornerstone of the reform? Lehman has all of its compensation in stock cliff-vested in 5 years - it does not get more long-term and risk-sensitive, but still did not help all that much.

I view it as distracting populism at its worst (instead of, say, discussing Glass-Steagall), but maybe I am missing something here...

Ah yes, the "free TV" days, kinda gives you a warm secure feeling.

http://www.last.fm/music/William+Shatner/_/Common+People

Nova nova nova of course life will be good----considering the alternative, life is almost always good. Just change your attitude. Will you need to re-adjust your expectations? sure. will you need to learn new skills and ways of viewing family, society and the world? yupppers, you betcha. You will need to change, but it will still be good. Kids still grow up, couples still pair off, babies still get born, society re-forms and becomes what is needed at the time....Know what you need? You need a more Mandalorian way of looking at the world.

Mandalorian - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Clan oriented totally Pro-family sociopaths.

MrM

I view it as distracting populism at its worst (instead of, say, discussing Glass-Steagall)

Agreed.

rsj,

I thank you.

"a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll just found that 58% of the public believe the economic recession still has a ways to go"

and of course NBC denies the poll...

There are currently 52 users and 348 guests online

Hey folks, I know I don't post all that much (largely due to timezone differences) but maybe it's time some of you drew up a chair . . .

Well, off to dinner....

Fun as always.

MfO,

"and will ook at rentals next year"

Maybe you really are from Ork.

Never Again II wrote:

desire is the cause of suffering

Desire can be a motivator as well.
Knowing how much is enough is more the key to contentment. IMO

Seeing Ron Paul's bill Crash and Burn is not a good sign for transparency so the tinfoil industry and 'merchants of fear' industry is going to really cash in on gold coin sales, gun & ammo sales, survival gear sales, pandemic flu scare products, etc. plus more confusing tinfoil theories will be manufactured and marketed (for profit) as the Crash occurs in the dark and 'manufactured' confusion of non-transparency...IMHO anyway...

I commented on a pre foreclosure yard sale yesterday. I saw the furniiture on craigslist, and they also listed the ceiling fans and garage door opener. Today, I kid not, they list 300 retaining wall bricks, "must remove and haul away". Inland Empire.

It is for most of us, but I think on a class basis some folks are never going to have the experience...and cannot understand/empathize

and those people we don't consider truly human, do we? I mean, not in the regular sense of the word.

The Four Noble Truths

Asia down big and US Futures all green? JPY under 90. This does not portend a pleasant Monday.

It wasnt the worst job I had because it was a bad job; it was the worst job I ever had because I was so totally inept and dangerous at it and it was not a good fit, I knew that the first day but I needed the money so bad I kept coming in and trying( and bleeding hahahaha). I wasnt mad.

NaRm will probably mock me about this butI reached a point due to that job about not being mad about work, or dismayed or embarrassed. just do your best and dont cheat at it and it will be alllll good. Be pleased at your actions, not the job itself. makes no sense, but it helps me. No job is too low for respect.

PS I write NaRm and think that CR is the alternate Cheers. Everyone Knows our name here and NaRm is the equivalent to Norm. hehehehe.

And to be honest...these are obvious 'connections'...central bank investors<>Fed<>Treasury<>GS/JPM<>taxpayers.
The part with all the 'mystery' that generates so much 'tinfoil' is the 'central bank investors' part of the links or inter-relatedness because this is not public information and so it generates more curiousity and interest than it would if it was a 'known entity'...just as when the Warren Commission stuff was locked up not to be released 'til a lot later...this just generates more suspicion, interest, speculation in the public...transparency will curtail to some extent the spread of the tinfoil industry and even legitimate research and also the continuous efforts apologists who try and explain non-transparrency and the connections or non-connections so it is palatable...

But the squid is an easy icon to grasp.

"I would like you to be right."

Well now you are scaring me. I often say, "me being wrong is always an option"

Harsh contrast to "Failure is not an option"

It's not true even for NASA, so one should always consider the possibility and have a plan B.

In regards to jobs, I think this scenario IS the plan B, and "returning to normal" the plan A so maybe we need a plan C just in case.

There very may well be the "next big thing" that becomes a big employer, but I bet nobody knows what it will be, just like before.

Energy infrastructure, especially nuclear, the only source that can change things in a really big way.
Better modes of transportation, to get us out of the "one person per vehicle" paradigm.

Hang Seng just took a 1000 point swing
my bad- give it time.

CaptainMorgan wrote:

I 'm not old enough to have been in the workforce during the 70's, but I have heard all the stories and catch phrases "had to have experience to push a broom".

Nobody at the time knew that Intel, Microsoft, Apple, etc would become big employers. I bet their were a few who "believed in" those companies, but somebody probably believed in pets.com also.

Without the PC, we would not have internet providers, and would not have down loadable MP3's and MP3 players.

There very may well be the "next big thing" that becomes a big employer, but I bet nobody knows what it will be, just like before.

America will go on in some form or another, and people will still continue to prosper and better their situation.

:: ::

'The next big thing' is typically a result of or driven by innovation waves. These waves typically run something like 40 years peak to peak... or trough to trough... one just peaked sometime in the late 90's early 00's and we are in the downward part of that wave now. This stuff isn't gospel or 100% self-fulfilling prophecy but seems to happen that way - Schumpeter was the economist most responsible for first observing this. Read up on him if you have more interest.

Anyway if that is so - we got minimum 10-15 years of sluggish economy to claw through until the 'next big thing'. In a down phase environment the recessions are severe and the 'recoveries' lame... once to the other side & into the up phase of the next innovation wave... the recessions are mild & the recoveries booming if not bubbly.

I would expect a lot of price pressure, poor earnings & weak job market. Similar to the 70s or if really bad - the 30s.

Again - no law of nature - just seems to hold up 'sort of'.

barfly wrote:

Better modes of transportation, to get us out of the "one person per vehicle" paradigm.

Why? What's wrong with POV centric mobility?

@josap,

The Hang Seng is the main Hong-Kong share index, their equivalent of the S&P 500.

(Currently about 20K, so a 1000 point move is equivalent to 50 on the S&P.)

Risk is prolly very specific to specific loans/groups of loans.

So, yeah, if somebody is making a big commission to make
specific stupid loans, that needs to be addressed. Except why
wasn't it already, long ago?

NaRm - 'The peasants won't really mind having less. They'll just burn the money on stupid stuff anyway.'
Yeah, like rent, food, and gas. I have to remember what noob told me - 'Oh, don't be so serious'.
Next week in the stock market...how will the 'pump' stay on?

LL,

I was just thinking the same.

Hurray for the gov't. What did she do?

Why? What's wrong with POV centric mobility?

if you've ever experienced Seattle rush hour traffic, you'd know what was wrong ~

Posting very slow. Back to work tomorrow.

Nitey-nite.

for everyone.

Rob, it's the noise and pollution, too. The highways are a dull roar at all times, and the smell is so bad, and then there's all the accidents. It's just an antiquated mode of travel. We can do better.

Rob, I guess you'd call it the "externalities". Talk about your misallocated capital.

"Saudi Arabia has decided to drop the WTI contract as the benchmark pricing unit for its oil. It is substituting a contract called the Argus Sour Crude Index, which will track the price in the physical market of a basket of U.S. gulf coast crudes, including Mars, Poseidon, and Southern Green Canyon."

barfly wrote:

The highways are a dull roar at all times, and the smell is so bad, and then there's all the accidents.

Remember the transportation in Minority Report? Quiet, non-polluting, selective high-speed coordinated auto-guidance.

The future still isn't trains & buses, since people don't all live at one station and work at the next.

dryfly,

As to last night’s discussion, I don’t think that FOREX transmission into domestic prices is neither fast enough nor effective enough to relieve the personal/private debt problems.

This paper’s conclusion is that pass through coefficient for the U.S. is somewhere between 0.2 to 0.5:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/833/ifdp833.pdf

... This paper documents a sustained decline in exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices,
from above 0.5 during the 1980s to somewhere in the neighborhood of 0.2 during the last
decade. This decline in the pass-through coefficient is robust to the measure of foreign prices
that is included in the regression (i.e., CPI versus PPI), whether the estimation is done in levels
or differences, and whether U.S. prices are included as an explanatory variable. ...

Given the fact that imports are approximately 14% of GDP, with such a transmission coefficient the effect of a FOREX adjustment on domestic debt levels via inflation is too small to significantly counteract deflationary pressures. Therefore, unless Fed policy suddenly gains traction or the government can inflate to a much larger degree, I still believe that devaluation will be the most likely course of action.

I should note that such pressures are also quite evident in Europe including Germany and not just the example I gave last night (Spain).

Another dynamic that should not be discounted is what is happening in China. Yes, there are inflationary pressures but what is amazing is the story I posted a few days ago:

Asia Times Online :: China News, China Business News, Taiwan and Hong Kong
News and Business.

*... An explosive report released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) in September said earnings of graduates were now at par and even lower than those of migrant laborers. The news came as a blow to many high-aspiring parents and youngsters in a country that has for centuries prided itself on cultivating elite Confucian intelligentsia. ...
*
In a connected world, this has tremendous implications on worldwide personal income, likely for years to come. It cannot see FOREX moves significant enough to correct these imbalances. If we do then I don’t think the financial system will survive them.

As I have mentioned here many times before, I am also convinced that automation/artificial intelligence will have an even greater impact on pay scales, especially in high wage countries but increasingly also in low wage countries like China. Sophisticated computing equipment is nowadays a pure commodity item. And, to borrow a Broward phrase, I am convinced that work is finite.

To counteract these pressures will take an extremely determined government. Otherwise we end up in a highly unpleasant downward spiral. Devaluation, as difficult as it is to execute and make palatable, might just become the only viable option, potentially even in the HOPE to force the exchange rate lower.

I just thought I'd report that today was a beautifully-sunny one, where I got to finish long-overdue outdoor chores and putter around to my heart's content. I took the boy tricker-treating, handed out candy to smiling children, and watched a couple of movies with the missus.

Now I'm putzing around on the computer and listening to Postal Service (who you might remember from the UPS White Board commercials). I couldn't be more optimistic.

I avoided thinking about the coming months for an entire weekend and I gotta say, ignorance is bliss. I can see why it's so damned seductive.