How could anyone think we are anywhere close to a bottom in housing prices?
I just read an article (NY Times) a day or so ago about how we're now at 2003 prices. And that meant we were back to pre-bubble levels. HA! The bubble started in either 2001, or 1999 depending on how you measure (and the area). The "economist" quoted also said that homes are more affordable now than they have been in more than 20 years. Um...what about in 2002, you moron?
That's quite a hockey stick you got there.
Are we still expecting the Option ARMs to start kicking in next year?
Did Credit Suisse ever update their famous graph?
"San Francisco-based Pacific National Bank is being eyeballed for takeover by federal authorities, according to several sources in the Silicon Valley and San Francisco commercial real estate industry.
The bank has sought to raise additional equity capital but has been unable, according to one source. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was expected to take control as early as this afternoon."
pavel.chichikov (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 10/30/2009 - 4:34 pm
"Unfortunately, there's no way to rationally discuss morality anymore."
Not entirely, but that a discussion of morality has become harder to organize coherently is an indication that evil is objectively real, not subjective and only personally defined.
Evil is at least as real as death or taxes, and they affect everyone.
From the graph, it had been more or less 0.5% until mid-2007. Then all heck broke loose.
Notice the graph was super-steady at 0.5% until 2003, then started slowly increasing.
The lenders do too. If a HAMP loan is in trial (and we've heard 500,000 are in the trial period), it is still considered delinquent until it reaches permanent status.
pico,
fwiw
finance application counts are trending below last month across our 3K dealer network...sept number or a little better is my guess on car numbers
ROFLOL. Someone just sent me that article ... it sounds likely, but I'd just classify it as rumor until the FDIC announces it. According to the article they are around a $2 billion asset bank.
BTW, the FDIC released their C&D list today ... it was pretty long, and I think Surferdude has a lot of work to do!!!
"The bank, which reported assets of $2.1 billion at midyear, has been in the news in recent weeks following a decision by the Hines company and the California Public Employees’ Retirement System to walk away from the Watergate office complex in Emeryville. CalPERS and Hines, via their National Office Properties LP, borrowed $152 million from Pacific National for the acquisition in 2006. The loan, which was refinanced in 2008, had not been paid down at the time of default, according to commercial real estate research firm Real Capital Analytics.
Pacific National is also a lender against Moffett Towers, the 1.8 million square-foot speculative office complex built by San Francisco’s Jay Paul Co. in Sunnyvale. The development has been completed for months but has failed to retain a single tenant."
Here are the recent numbers if you want to run an analysis on the 2nd derivative:
Just looking at that graph: Electrical engineers would extrapolate the "slew rate". It might make sense too, if the system is so overwhelmed that the rate of adding loans to the delinquency pile is constant.
"San Francisco-based Pacific National Bank is being eyeballed for takeover by federal authorities, according to several sources in the Silicon Valley and San Francisco commercial real estate industry."
I hope the FDIC doesn't have to use the Bay Bridge to get to any of the branches.
""San Francisco-based Pacific National Bank is being eyeballed for takeover by federal authorities, according to several sources in the Silicon Valley and San Francisco commercial real estate industry."
And to think I almost bit on their 2% CDs. They have a branch in the middle of Freakmont, CA
According to the article they are around a $2 billion asset bank.
Is that a lot? My sense of perspective is totally out of whack. With trillions for bailouts and backstops, hundreds of quadrillions of derivatives written, is a billion a big deal anymore?
Snark or no snark?
Danny wrote:
The "economist" quoted also said that homes are more affordable now than they have been in more than 20 years.
Remember, the dollar has lost something like 23% of it's value since 2000... so in real terms, maybe?
Sorry, doesn't that mean that houses are MORE expensive now? I mean that sort of inflation only means houses are cheaper if real wages are going up.
I have been waiting patiently for this, but don't expect the early defaults to alter it much.
I figured it would be skewed by the bailout/workout/whatever.
Also, I think Wamu or someone disclosed some new information on the reset periods of a bunch of loans...
Sorry, doesn't that mean that houses are MORE expensive now? I mean that sort of inflation only means houses are cheaper if real wages are going up.
No, it means the houses are less expensive in inflation-adjusted dollars. Just because wages haven't gone up doesn't mean that the dollar hasn't lost value. And it's hard to say how they figured affordability, but if they include interest rates in the calculation, it can appear that houses are more affordable even if they are more expensive, ignoring the dollar devaluation.
"The servant is really a slave in the old-fashioned way. They have no chains, but chains aren’t needed. Where will they go? If they leave us, they must serve another. Most middle-class families have servants. In India, middle-class means ‘not poor’, and so even families with an income of Rs10,000 a month have servants. This keeps the wages low. And in India there is no problem with the supply of unemployed illiterates."
........THIS is the way of the NEW Recovery.........lots of job growth.
liz,
I'm pretty sure that a 'thesis' proposing that many bubble/busts (both national & international') were caused by preceding policies and thus were at least 'allowed'. I think there would be some support for this 'thesis'. Call that what you want...'moral hazard' or 'idiocy' the results are 'inevitable' when a certain sequence of economic/finance/political policies and events are followed. Simple cause-and-effect variables may be at work in Big Busts & currency devaluations. The 'public' labeling of this process can be inflamatory and maybe misleading to some extent by over-simplification and black-and-white thinking.
Hey, you are forgetting that the world is flat. We don't need jobs like THAT any more. Mericans are ALL knowledge workers now! We're not a bunch of LOSER regular workers.
Pacific National is also a lender against Moffett Towers, the 1.8 million square-foot speculative office complex built by San Francisco’s Jay Paul Co. in Sunnyvale. The development has been completed for months but has failed to retain a single tenant.
I would never let this happen to my speculative office complex.
First, I wouldn't tell people it is speculative.
Second, I would get at least one tenant, even at no rent, just so reporters couldn't write that I didn't get a single tenant.
No need to overintellectualize it - maximum 'homeownership' and the economic stimulus provided by MEW and explosive price appreciation were explicit political goals. Asset inflation is fun on the way up. Politicians like a fat, happy electorate because a fat, happy electorate tends to like their current politicians.
Pacific National is also a lender against Moffett Towers, the 1.8 million square-foot speculative office complex built by San Francisco’s Jay Paul Co. in Sunnyvale.
Within the context of that sentence, the word speculative is redundant at least thrice over.
Looks like they should have followed the condo builder's play book: Build, sell first-most desireable unit to a close associate, set comps - create demand, price and sell remaining units,sell first unit at inflated price and bail.
I am trying to understand the implications of these higher default rates on the interest rate a lender should charge if it wants to stay solvent despite the losses due to these defaults.
Does a 4% increase in the default rate (from a usual 0.5% to 4.5%) and assuming a 75% recovery rate on the collateral, does it imply that the interest rate on new customers would be higher by 4%*(1-0.75) = 1%?
I am assuming, the lender is going to try to recoup these losses from future customers.
Does that make sense. I know this is very simplistic but I am just looking for a very basic approach.
I'm guessing that they felt if they cut the first tenant a price break, they would have to give that price to anyone else. Which would blow their pro formas out of the water. So it sits empty.
That Register site that was linked is great. From a quick skim, it would appear that Calpers is in for quite a few more haircuts just from the Bay area CRE.
Looks like they should have followed the condo builder's play book: Build, sell first-most desireable unit to a close associate, set comps - create demand, price and sell remaining units,sell first unit at inflated price and bail.
Here in the peoples republic of MA, a certain number of units are reserves for low cost housing, so you're instantly 5-10% filled.
The Mortgage Bankers Association, which lost money in its last fiscal year, has decided to put its Washington headquarters up for sale, 14 months after occupying the $100 million building. The property, which has proven to be a white elephant for the financially strapped trade group almost from the instant it was purchased in May 2008, is listed with Holliday Fenoglio Fowler, a national commercial brokerage firm. No asking price was mentioned in a letter this morning to the MBA membership. According to the letter, the decision to unload the structure at 1331 L Street was deemed by the MBA board to be "in the best interest" of the association, which will continue to lease "a substantial portion" of space as its HQ through 2020. According to the letter, the decision to buy the building in the first place was made by three different member-led task forces. But the letter did not say what many observers believe: that the decision cost former President Jonathan Kempner his job after a decade as the MBA's chief operating officer. That the MBA has been unable to lease much space to other tenants in what was described as "one of the most severe recessions in a century" was sited as a major reason for the sale. "The board concluded that continued ownership...was economically imprudent and over the long term would impair MBA's ability to continue to provide our members with MBA's full range of services," the letter said.
And in India there is no problem with the supply of unemployed illiterates. - RD
IIRC, the flip side of this system is sort of feudal. The "master" is supposed to take care of the servant in sickness, old age, etc. And if you've ever read novels about houses with servants, the whole thing is a complicated, manipulative PITA.
The servant cannot:
• Eat the same food that we eat, unless there is food left over
• Eat from the same vessels
• Sit on our furniture - When the family watches television, the servant may also watch, but must sit on the floor.
• Sleep on a bed (they sleep on the floor)
• Use air-conditioning
• Use the toilets we do
Servants’ quarters are highlighted when property is marketed, and having one in your flat is a fine thing. South Bombay, the most civilised part of India, has buildings which have elevators marked: ‘Servants not allowed’.
......where do you think the illiterate kids will work after graduation? It's kind of like moving back home, except it's someone elses home with lots of chores.........
IQ scale -
Moron ~ 50-69
Imbecile ~ 20-49
Idiot ~ Below 20
As bad as our administrators, big investors, and policy makers are...do you see how this 'common' thesis or meme as to why our economy is collapsing following a long line of other national economies collapsing...might be a tough nut to crack with any legitimate support...
And if you've ever read novels about houses with servants, the whole thing is a complicated, manipulative PITA
I'm thinking the new REAL Merican survival-of-the-fittest servant model might be different tho. I say we: use `em, and discard 'em. Sure they have rights, but not a right to MY hard earned money. If they don't like it, I'd just say to them: WHY DON'T YOU GET A JOB YOU LOSERS!!! I DON'T GET WELFARE, I WORK FOR A LIVING.
Jay Paul bought in at the end of the Dot Com crash but actually excaped the crash and made a killing.... (He made the tech companies prepay their rent) When he sold some of his properties it was a cash cow.....
Something tells me this crash isnt the same for him.....
(I worked on one of his projects in San Diego, massive, 100MM just for the dirt, a million an acre...)
I'd like to see the chart arranged by quintiles - Seriously Delinquent, Mostly Delinquent, Teen-like Delinquent, Absurdly Delinquent, Inconceivably Delinquent. It would be a public service.
Probably hard to graduate (with advanced degrees) from Ivy League Universities with an IQ of moron, imbecile, or idiot...even if one cheats on occasion...
Look at this article, especially the literacy map (scroll down). There are many densely populated areas where the literacy is very high, especially the North East and Kerala. Also, look at the fertility rate-- just 2.72 per woman. That's pretty good for a developing country. That's one of many reasons why there is such growth there.
The statements in the article are misleading. Of course there are class distinctions between the masters and the servants-- they are most likely different castes. If you look closer, there is severe caste discrimination all over the society, as well as gender discrimination. It's a mistake to read one article and take it literally, especially if you try to do a one-to-one comparison between America and India. Their society was at an almost medieval level until fairly recently-- by our standards at least.
merchants of fear (profile) wrote on Fri, 10/30/2009 - 5:42 pm
Probably hard to graduate (with advanced degrees) from Ivy League Universities with an IQ of moron, imbecile, or idiot...even if one cheats on occasion...
Undergraduates who go through a 'normal' application process (i.e. no legacy ties etc) are definitely not in that category, the majority are very gifted students. We shouldn't look to the Ivies/elites as a problem of intelligence -- the reality of why the people that get there, get there is a much deeper issue than drafting mental moron legacies. They are selecting people to occupy particular social echelons and circles of political and economic power in the future, and far more interested in socializing them to the realities of the ruling class than educating them.
I'm staying home and doling out Halloween candy at the door. Wife and kids are out. Due to voluminous supply of candy, I've put in a roasting pan. Some local college kids came to the door and I answered it with the lid on the pan. Told them that I forgot to buy candy but I do have some fresh Turkey in the pan...who wants a drumstick?
"San Francisco-based Pacific National Bank is being eyeballed for takeover by federal authorities, according to several sources in the Silicon Valley
and San Francisco commercial real estate industry.
Ok, while a rumor, its starting to feel like Friday.
Ok, I was surprised at the amount of ! Ok, we hung out today with another family (we have every other Friday off at work), so it was about kids and a great day enjoying the weather and pretty much ignoring economics.
HALLOWEEN STORMS: Last night, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) near Earth tilted south, an orientation that weakens our planet's magnetic defenses against solar wind.
East Coast US. But the localities here are celebrating on Friday night. Who knows why...
They do that in the college town I live in too. Bugs the hell out of me. This year is the "offical" day, however. They usually only move it when it's on weekday night. I always go out on Halloween to avoid the little monsters.
'Theynode' is the most unpopular 'thesis' that will trigger retaliatory blurbs, closure of topic, and the charge of 'insanity'...but 'Theyalloweditnode' also is extremely unpopular is some of the blogosphere...so basically the 'idiotdidn'tnode' is the prevailing 'consensus' in proper blogging forums. Then there's the over-the top forums that mix global conspiracy, UFOs, and UN pandemic 'humanrace' genocide'.
Do you see how there is no really good 'thesis' available with supported evidence to explain serial political/economic collapses?
They are selecting people to occupy particular social echelons and circles of political and economic power in the future, and far more interested in socializing them to the realities of the ruling class than educating them.
What is the textbook for that class?
I must have missed it, as I attended a public university.
ResistanceIsFeudal,
Yeah using the best minds for building huge unsustainable bubbles may be a process...and when all else fails hire a Watergate-type crew...LOL
"I'd like to see the chart arranged by quintiles - Seriously Delinquent, Mostly Delinquent, Teen-like Delinquent, Absurdly Delinquent, Inconceivably Delinquent. It would be a public service."
I have some of that data - let's just say the Inconceivably Delinquent bucket is the largest.
But, I am sure if those borrowers just get a lower interest rate, all will be fine. We'll just tack all those missed payments onto the balance, put them even deeper into debt slavery.
Do you see how there is no really good 'thesis' available with supported evidence to explain serial political/economic collapses?
What about the historically normal "greedy" thesis. The "smart amoral scumbags" stuffing their faces with loot until they burst. Leaving only THE "smartest amoral scumbag" left standing - in the debris of the other exploded ones - to start the game over again. It's my own personal "exploding smart amoral scumbag" thesis.
Regarding the "idiot" thesis. This always bugged me about The Frat boy in Chief. Idiots don't get to be president, regardless of how well connected they are. He was an intellectual lightweight tho.
The pattern is when someone tries to link some possibly 'informative' economic research, the blogger risks being thrown into the 'UFO/alien', (simplistic labeling) 'global conspiracy' crowd while maybe ignoring the actual series of cited research links by top economists.
merchants of fear (profile) wrote on Fri, 10/30/2009 - 6:02 pm
ResistanceIsFeudal,
Yeah using the best minds for building huge unsustainable bubbles may be a process...and when all else fails hire a Watergate-type crew...LOL
Hehe, yes, exactly. It's not conscious evil so much as simple greed that leads to a perception of conscious evil. The thought never occurred to many that their path to "get-rich-quick" means a lot of other people "get-poorer-faster", at least not until they were way too far inside the game.
sm_landlord -- public uni educated academic mongrel here
There's Kondratieff and Martin Armstrong. They were respectively killed and permanently jailed without trial by the respective governments of their day. Perhaps TPTB don't enjoy speculation on these subjects.
"HALLOWEEN STORMS: Last night, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) near Earth tilted south, an orientation that weakens our planet's magnetic defenses against solar wind."
The thought never occurred to many that their path to "get-rich-quick" means a lot of other people "get-poorer-faster", at least not until they were way too far inside the game.
That's why amoral would be superior to "moral with enough compensating duplicity and self-delusion". Being amoral would free the brain from extraneous work, allowing the attached human to rise to THE ultimate level of "smart amoral scumbag" enlightenment.
Some local college kids came to the door and I answered it with the lid on the pan. Told them that I forgot to buy candy but I do have some fresh Turkey in the pan...who wants a drumstick? Some of them actually believed me.
They were just as stupid 20 years ago. I have an excellent memory, and I live in a college town. Endless chances for comparison.
And the college students of 20 years ago are the mid-career bankers and financiers and real estate agents of today. No surprises there.
I, too, am leaning to a West Coast BFF. Too late for any other TZ except Mountain, and even there it's near the end.
If there is an 'evil' component in this Clustermess, it's in the fallout or results of bubble 'profits'...you know 'The Grapes of Wrath...the insensitivity of organized and cooperative 'Group Narcissism'...but this is the realm of abnormal psychology. And as you know law enforcement investigation principles look for 'conspiracies'...most crime is a cooperative effort...not that anything happened is a 'crime'...it's all been built on the Law & regulation and lack of it(deregulation)...but making laws or deregulating is a cooperative effort...
But of the $1.05 billion in clean-energy grants handed out by the government since Sept. 1, 84 percent – a total of $849 million – has gone to foreign wind companies. Spanish utility company, Iberdrola S.A., alone has collected $545 million through its American subsidiary...... Investigations | Wind Energy Funds Going Overseas | Investigative Reporting Workshop
Wow, ... this is really F'ing fun.... sitting here waiting for Fed employees to be honest and do something like regulate crooked bankers.... yah, like that's gonna happen...
HALLOWEEN STORMS: Last night, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) near Earth tilted south, an orientation that weakens our planet's magnetic defenses against solar wind.
Pavel-- I saw that before, and I like this quote: "If you look at the data and sort of cherry-pick a micro-trend within a bigger trend, that technique is particularly suspect."
He was talking about the idea of global cooling, of course, but I would say that the whole global warming scare is arguable a cherry-picked micro-trend.
And the funny thing about trends is, they're trends until they're not.
"If you look at the data and sort of cherry-pick a micro-trend within a bigger trend, that technique is particularly suspect."
Sounds like CNBS with green-shoots. Hmmm, I wonder if there could be any similarity in people, motives (manipulation of their dumbasses), and political philosophies. naaaa....
Maybe we could pay people from India and China (Russia too) to regulate our banking system? Maybe we should be thinking outside the box and outsource the Treasury to China...
October 30, 2009
Madoff: SEC Never Thought It Was a Ponzi Scheme
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Filed at 6:57 p.m. ET
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Bernard Madoff was apparently convinced that it never even occurred to Securities and Exchange Commission staff he was running a Ponzi scheme, despite the agency's numerous probes of his business.
A document released Friday details a prison interview conducted in June by the SEC inspector general in which Madoff says he had the impression that ''it never entered the SEC's mind that it was a Ponzi scheme.''
The details emerged in a summary of Inspector General David Kotz's interview with Madoff at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in New York, released along with hundreds of other documents related to Kotz's extensive investigation of the SEC's failure to detect Madoff's fraudulent scheme for 16 years.
SEC, a truly exalted agency! Cox, GW, what's the difference, morons!
When the hell are we gonna learn? I'd rather pay a bit more and do domestic.
As I recall, there aren't any domestic manufacturers that make the right equipment for big wind farms. The countries that have been handing out big subsidies have the manufacturers.
Santelli is yelling about 'dollar devaluation' at the 'pro-Fed apologist'.
Questioning the data~
'Who believes there's been 600,000 jobs saved?' - Santelli
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 10/30/2009 - 6:21 pm
Being amoral would free the brain from extraneous work, allowing the attached human to rise to THE ultimate level of "smart amoral scumbag" enlightenment.
Truly. Luckily consciousness, evolution, or the unseen foot of dumb luck has arranged it so that becoming amoral takes a lot of work on the self/psyche, except for those "gifted" enough with a pathological degree of psychopathy plus sufficient intelligence to "naturally" predate upon normal society.
When the hell are we gonna learn? I'd rather pay a bit more and do domestic.
You know how the UNIONIZED labor drives up prices! The lazy bastard don't want to work for Chinese wages LET THEM STARVE. And when they're out of work, you know what I'd say: GET A JOB YOU LAZY BUMS. I DON'T GET WELFARE, I WORK FOR A LIVING.
It's those unions that ruined this great and glorious nation. Unions and those people that expect more money than they deserve.
In jail, Madoff is peddling the 'idiot thesis' that SEC didn't know there was a ponzi and it never even occured to this government regulatory agency'.
Is this where the 'idiot thesis' is coming from?
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 10/30/2009 - 4:32 pm
* reply
* Ignore user
homedad43 wrote:
When the hell are we gonna learn? I'd rather pay a bit more and do domestic.
You know how the UNIONIZE labor drives up prices! The lazy bastard don't want to work for Chinese wages LET THEM STARVE. And when they're out of work, you know what I'd say: GET A JOB YOU LAZY BUMS. I DON'T GET WELFARE, I WORK FOR A LIVING.
...and a get a haircut, you hippie! There fixed it for ya!
Great, call the NY Fed and ask for Tim Geithner and get some 23 yo dude in Mumbai.
How could things be any different? If anything the kid in Mumbai wouldn't have had the balls to help steal a few trillion -- we'd still be talking millions!
So is it some kind of a sign when a guy I ride the train with tells me that he bought Iraqi dinars? This same guy bought GM and scoffed when I suggested BK was in their immediate future. He said, "they'll never let GM go bankrupt." or something to that effect.
"Did you ever tell her you were going out to find a cable stretcher? "
Oh yeah and a guy (who later became a good friend) in University asked me about a big scar on my elbow from a bike accident. I explained in a very serious voice how I got nicked by a shark while swimming off the coast in Yugoslavia but managed to make it back into the boat despite the copious loss of blood.
A year later while having dinner at his house I had to explain that it was a joke when he brought the story up with his mother.
It was well known that I was a joker there. Unfortunately months later I heard her warning very seriously about these issues to another co-worker.
I like it. I had a co-worker who was a hunt n peck typer. He was out for a few days and I took the opportunity to pop a few keys off his keyboard and re-arrange them. The "m" and "n" were swapped, as were a few others. He came back to work and by 10:30 still unable to log in was certain someone had reset his password. He called the help desk to have them reset it and he still couldn't log in. At the point where they were sending someone to help him in person another co-worker who knew what I had done burst out laughing and gave me up.
Another one I'm kind of proud of involved a nice Cutter and Buck windbreaker we were giving out to customers. One of the customers was a bit large so we took a medium sized pullover and sewed a XXL tag into it. When he came to pick it up we suggested that they ran a little small and he should try it on. He got it over his head and not much further - very much looked like a sausage escaping from the casing. He more than anybody got a good laugh out of it - if I hadn't known him really, really well I wouldn't have done this.
nakedcapitalism has this actual quote from Rosner.
"Rosner’s actual language is somewhat over-the-top:
If leadership won’t add such language [reigning in the TBTFs], call your elected official and ask how much they actually receive when they agree to put on the kneepads."
In electronics it's well known that semi-conductor integrated circuits are manufactured using 'magic smoke' because as has been proven many times by a tech, when you short an IC smoke comes out and the device stops working. Thus proving that 'magic smoke' powers modern computer chips.
~splat
I wrote a program and added a few pop-ups that were triggered by certain common user errors. Or maybe just had them popup on a radom basis... Anyways, I was working for the US District Court.
They would say something like:
WARNING! WARNING!
YOU HAVE VIOLATED PROTOCOL ALPHA
PLEASE REMAIN SEATED> THE US MARSHALLS HAVE BEEN DISPATCHED!
A year later while having dinner at his house I had to explain that it was a joke when he brought the story up with his mother.
My Dad had a sebaceous cyst removed from his face in the late '50s before he met my Mom. When she asked about it, he told her he got it in a knife fight. In the early '70s, she repeated this story to their best "couple" friends; unfortunately, they already knew it was from a surgical procedure, not a knife fight. That was good for more than a few laughs
sm_landlord (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 10/30/2009 - 6:30 pm
As I recall, there aren't any domestic manufacturers that make the right equipment for big wind farms. The countries that have been handing out big subsidies have the manufacturers.
Wind farms are a major growth area -- there are an amazing number of them going up, as is noticeable in industrial demand for power equipment and projects (since very little else is moving forward). They require a lot of power, surprisingly enough. Ethanol plants took off in much the same way several years back, sprouting up like weeds.
Jerry Brown was a pi**-poor governor the LAST time out the gate - what makes him think he'll do a better job THIS time? More wisdom? Dumber legislators? No one else want the job?........I still remember a long time ago when he was courting Linda Ronstadt, and the two of them were running around in their "all-togethers" below us in the Holly Hills........the old man used to call him up.........
Glad I didnt buy one of their CDs last week as we drove by the branch.
U.S. Bank to take over Pacific NationalOctober 30, 2009 7:17 PM ET
U.S. Bank will take over Pacific National Bank once federal regulators take control of the struggling San Francisco institution Friday evening, a source close to bank management has confirmed.
The move appears to be part of a larger takeover of Pacific National parent company FBOP Corp. and its eight bank subsidiaries. Regulators have been collecting bids for the Illinois-based banking company. As of early this week, bidders had been told their offers were insufficient. It is unclear if U.S. Bancorp, based in Minneapolis, subsequently raised its offer.
Earlier this month, Pacific National's difficulties were highlighted in a report that listed it among the nation’s most undercapitalized banks.
Pacific National had been attempting to raise $1 billion in new capital, but was unsuccessful.
Many of Pacific National's troubles reflect large holdings in stock of Fannie Mae, a government sponsored funder of home mortgages. That stock is now effectively worthless.
When you subsidize the crap out of any BS 'green technology' people jump on the subsidies bandwagon to make a buck no matter how crap and impractical it really is.
~splat
Now I see that San Diego National and Pacific National are part of the same parent corp.
All together, that will be a pretty hefty whale for the deposit fund to eat.
Get ready for three beers at 6:00 pm PST.
Prosperan Bank’s capital levels have fallen to critical levels. In the enforcement action, regulators said it must have a Tier 1 capital ratio, which determines how well it can sustain losses, of 10 percent. The bank's second quarter call report, which was updated in September, said its Tier 1 capital level was only 1.1 percent. The bank has also lost $9.6 million in the first six months of 2009.
So, is FDIC just sort of saying fuck it, we don't care, or what?
Just had a meeting with my contractor. He had to lay off his whole crew, who went to a framer, but then they got laid off again. The work I can give them is only about 3 days, little things. Evidently that's all that's going on. But he still has hope that things will turn around, and I agreed with him for mercy's sake. It's all very sad.
I still remember a long time ago when he was courting Linda Ronstadt, and the two of them were running around in their "all-togethers" below us in the Holly Hills........the old man used to call him up.........
Better then than now; I understand she's put on a little weight
As of Sept. 30, Fort Lauderdale-based Valley Bank’s had a Tier 1 capital ratio of 8.24 percent and a total risk-based capital ratio of 10.91 percent. The bank has lost $918,000 in the first nine months of this year. It had $138.1 million in assets and 3.78 percent of its loans were noncurrent on Sept. 30.
Henson said he’s confident his three banks will meet those capital requirements. He said the parent company would add capital to the Fort Lauderdale bank if necessary.
I had a co-worker who was a hunt n peck typer. He was out for a few days and I took the opportunity to pop a few keys off his keyboard and re-arrange them. The "m" and "n" were swapped, as were a few others. He came back to work and by 10:30 still unable to log in was certain someone had reset his password
Mike next time first start a rumour that layoffs are about to start...
If they are taking FBOP down, that is a $14 billion holding company:
Cal National Bank Los Angeles $5.6 billion
Park National Bank Chicago 3.8 billion
San Diego National Bank San Diego, California 2.4 billion
Pacific National Bank San Francisco, California 1.3 billion
North Houston Bank Houston, Texas 326 million
Madisonville State Bank Madisonville, Texas 183 million
Bank USA Phoenix, Arizona 138 million
Community Bank of Lemont Lemont, Illinois 96 million
Citizens National Bank Teague, Texas 64 million
splat (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 10/30/2009 - 6:49 pm
When you subsidize the crap out of any BS 'green technology' people jump on the subsidies bandwagon to make a buck no matter how crap and impractical it really is.
~splat
Yep. A majority of those ethanol plants have shut down or are looking at conversion options. Folks were getting large dividend checks in the heydays, which are of course gone. There is a market of course, but it is much, much smaller than presently anticipated (with copious amounts of hopium and changium). IMHO it will become a small, very specialized niche within a decade absent massive subsidies.
Um...yeah. "FBOP, worth an estimated $18 billion...evidence is piling up that federal regulators have decided not to extend a Sept. 30 deadline for FBOP to increase its capital levels, and will soon seize the company’s eight banks in California, Arizona, Illinois and Texas."
"FBOP, which is entirely owned by Chicago billionaire Michael Kelly"...correction "was owned"
While the loss for the quarter was a disappointment, the mark to market accounting issue or OTTI charge did not impact capital, and the loan loss provision does not reflect any deterioration in our overall loan portfolio. Unfortunately, values of collateral in some markets continue to fall, and we added appropriate reserves relating to these four previously identified non-performing loans," stated President and CEO, Mike Cahill
while it might be fashionable to beat up on Indian programmers- the Indian banking system in some instances is way ahead of the United States e.g. the banks all have virtual keyboards for logging in online, often have two tiers of security one for just looking at the account and a second level if you actually want to move funds, and what I like best- every time there is some activity in your bank or credit card account there is a text message sent to your cell phone.
It's October! They're just finding out now?!
Nemo!
yeah, they run late ... this is the September report, and includes the August delinquencies. I have to check the date every time - I get so confused!
best wishes
I'll guess a pig in 30 minutes ... but you never know with the FDIC.
best to all
How could anyone think we are anywhere close to a bottom in housing prices?
I just read an article (NY Times) a day or so ago about how we're now at 2003 prices. And that meant we were back to pre-bubble levels. HA! The bubble started in either 2001, or 1999 depending on how you measure (and the area). The "economist" quoted also said that homes are more affordable now than they have been in more than 20 years. Um...what about in 2002, you moron?
Looks to me like they just grabbed the global warming graph
That's quite a hockey stick you got there.
Are we still expecting the Option ARMs to start kicking in next year?
Did Credit Suisse ever update their famous graph?
That is a beautiful polynomial curve.... just sayin'.....
They forgot to say unexpectedly.
Here is a rumor ...
RTRE pacific national bank fdic
"San Francisco-based Pacific National Bank is being eyeballed for takeover by federal authorities, according to several sources in the Silicon Valley and San Francisco commercial real estate industry.
The bank has sought to raise additional equity capital but has been unable, according to one source. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was expected to take control as early as this afternoon."
We probably won't see a peak in this graph until six months after unemployment peaks, early 2011.
Looks to me like that 2nd derivative is decreasing tho. (I only measured by holding up my keyboard in front of the monitor, so I could be wrong).
Danny wrote:
Remember, the dollar has lost something like 23% of it's value since 2000... so in real terms, maybe?
Rajesh wrote:
Nemo what?!
We 'Ne-mo' BFF.....
Terry wrote:
The global warming graph shows temps decreasing for the last 10 years.
Nemo said he would be out of town.
pavel.chichikov (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 10/30/2009 - 4:34 pm
"Unfortunately, there's no way to rationally discuss morality anymore."
Not entirely, but that a discussion of morality has become harder to organize coherently is an indication that evil is objectively real, not subjective and only personally defined.
Evil is at least as real as death or taxes, and they affect everyone.
There is but one answer.
HOOCOODANODE?
nades wrote:
+1
Here are the recent numbers if you want to run an analysis on the 2nd derivative:
Jan-08 1.06%
Feb-08 1.10%
Mar-08 1.15%
Apr-08 1.22%
May-08 1.30%
Jun-08 1.36%
Jul-08 1.45%
Aug-08 1.57%
Sep-08 1.72%
Oct-08 1.89%
Nov-08 2.13%
Dec-08 2.42%
Jan-09 2.77%
Feb-09 2.96%
Mar-09 3.15%
Apr-09 3.42%
May-09 3.68%
Jun-09 3.94%
Jul-09 4.17%
Aug-09 4.45%
Enjoy!
So Fannie includes HAMP in deliq list but the lenders don't?
Or am I confused?
From the graph, it had been more or less 0.5% until mid-2007. Then all heck broke loose.
Notice the graph was super-steady at 0.5% until 2003, then started slowly increasing.
The lenders do too. If a HAMP loan is in trial (and we've heard 500,000 are in the trial period), it is still considered delinquent until it reaches permanent status.
best wishes
Is there an ETF that tracks this? Looks like money to be made going long.
Up is good, right?
C
It's a good thing the Fed is only buying AAA rated GSE paper as part of its quantitative diseasing program.
Thanks CR.
Thought I read something about that, maybe the lenders keep the loan at full value until it forcloses.
CR- You're teasing us with a Pacific time zone bank.
Cruel!
pico,
fwiw
finance application counts are trending below last month across our 3K dealer network...sept number or a little better is my guess on car numbers
wait? So people who don't have job can't pay their mortgage?
Color me shocked.
ROFLOL. Someone just sent me that article ... it sounds likely, but I'd just classify it as rumor until the FDIC announces it. According to the article they are around a $2 billion asset bank.
BTW, the FDIC released their C&D list today ... it was pretty long, and I think Surferdude has a lot of work to do!!!
best to all
"The bank, which reported assets of $2.1 billion at midyear, has been in the news in recent weeks following a decision by the Hines company and the California Public Employees’ Retirement System to walk away from the Watergate office complex in Emeryville. CalPERS and Hines, via their National Office Properties LP, borrowed $152 million from Pacific National for the acquisition in 2006. The loan, which was refinanced in 2008, had not been paid down at the time of default, according to commercial real estate research firm Real Capital Analytics.
Pacific National is also a lender against Moffett Towers, the 1.8 million square-foot speculative office complex built by San Francisco’s Jay Paul Co. in Sunnyvale. The development has been completed for months but has failed to retain a single tenant."
Hosed by CALPERS...
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Just looking at that graph: Electrical engineers would extrapolate the "slew rate". It might make sense too, if the system is so overwhelmed that the rate of adding loans to the delinquency pile is constant.
I hope the FDIC doesn't have to use the Bay Bridge to get to any of the branches.
""San Francisco-based Pacific National Bank is being eyeballed for takeover by federal authorities, according to several sources in the Silicon Valley and San Francisco commercial real estate industry."
And to think I almost bit on their 2% CDs. They have a branch in the middle of Freakmont, CA
BWHAHAHAHA!!!! That chart really made me laugh.
....if THAT bank goes down, that'll do it - them having 18 branches, right?
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Is that a lot? My sense of perspective is totally out of whack. With trillions for bailouts and backstops, hundreds of quadrillions of derivatives written, is a billion a big deal anymore?
Snark or no snark?
Cinco-X wrote:
I suppose if a great shill like George Wills thinks so, it must be true.
Climate Shifts » Blog Archive » George Will: wrong about climate change
Disclaimer: Doesn't give a rat's butt about climate-change one way or tother. I'll be dead before it affects me.
Don't go trick-or-treating for real estate this year:
The Golden Truth: Happy Halloween! Here's Some Spooky Quotes From Smart Investors:
"Did Credit Suisse ever update their famous graph?"
I have been waiting patiently for this, but don't expect the early defaults to alter it much.
sm_landlord wrote:
Sorry, doesn't that mean that houses are MORE expensive now? I mean that sort of inflation only means houses are cheaper if real wages are going up.
Well, if Pacific National Bank doesn't go down this week, next week's a certainty. Gonna be lawn chairs in front of their offices tomorrow AM.
Added Note: Since they're open for another 3 hours, set up your lawn chair concession right now.
CaptainMorgan wrote:
I figured it would be skewed by the bailout/workout/whatever.
Also, I think Wamu or someone disclosed some new information on the reset periods of a bunch of loans...
CaptainMorgan wrote:
Yeah. I forgot about that. Maybe a nice link to to have would be CR's top 10 pop charts. Kinda like a DJ of economic charts.
Maybe with some music links to go with the charts.
Danny wrote:
No, it means the houses are less expensive in inflation-adjusted dollars. Just because wages haven't gone up doesn't mean that the dollar hasn't lost value. And it's hard to say how they figured affordability, but if they include interest rates in the calculation, it can appear that houses are more affordable even if they are more expensive, ignoring the dollar devaluation.
........THIS is the way of the NEW Recovery.........lots of job growth.
Lets look on the bright side:
More than half are current.
liz,
I'm pretty sure that a 'thesis' proposing that many bubble/busts (both national & international') were caused by preceding policies and thus were at least 'allowed'. I think there would be some support for this 'thesis'. Call that what you want...'moral hazard' or 'idiocy' the results are 'inevitable' when a certain sequence of economic/finance/political policies and events are followed. Simple cause-and-effect variables may be at work in Big Busts & currency devaluations. The 'public' labeling of this process can be inflamatory and maybe misleading to some extent by over-simplification and black-and-white thinking.
Guess she's offline...
Black Star Ranch wrote:
Hey, you are forgetting that the world is flat. We don't need jobs like THAT any more. Mericans are ALL knowledge workers now! We're not a bunch of LOSER regular workers.
Cramer just read his teleprompter and said 'booyaah'!
I would never let this happen to my speculative office complex.
First, I wouldn't tell people it is speculative.
Second, I would get at least one tenant, even at no rent, just so reporters couldn't write that I didn't get a single tenant.
merchants of fear wrote:
Does he ever say anything else?
No need to overintellectualize it - maximum 'homeownership' and the economic stimulus provided by MEW and explosive price appreciation were explicit political goals. Asset inflation is fun on the way up. Politicians like a fat, happy electorate because a fat, happy electorate tends to like their current politicians.
'Buy Buy Buy!'
rich wrote:
Which is probably why they're bankrupt, and you're not.
Pacific National is also a lender against Moffett Towers, the 1.8 million square-foot speculative office complex built by San Francisco’s Jay Paul Co. in Sunnyvale.
Within the context of that sentence, the word speculative is redundant at least thrice over.
Looks like they should have followed the condo builder's play book: Build, sell first-most desireable unit to a close associate, set comps - create demand, price and sell remaining units,sell first unit at inflated price and bail.
The great american debt revolt is just beginning!
yuan wrote:
Perhaps: Mortgage Payments Declined in Third Quarter - Real Time Economics - WSJ
I am trying to understand the implications of these higher default rates on the interest rate a lender should charge if it wants to stay solvent despite the losses due to these defaults.
Does a 4% increase in the default rate (from a usual 0.5% to 4.5%) and assuming a 75% recovery rate on the collateral, does it imply that the interest rate on new customers would be higher by 4%*(1-0.75) = 1%?
I am assuming, the lender is going to try to recoup these losses from future customers.
Does that make sense. I know this is very simplistic but I am just looking for a very basic approach.
I'm guessing that they felt if they cut the first tenant a price break, they would have to give that price to anyone else. Which would blow their pro formas out of the water. So it sits empty.
That Register site that was linked is great. From a quick skim, it would appear that Calpers is in for quite a few more haircuts just from the Bay area CRE.
FoamFinger1 wrote:
Here in the peoples republic of MA, a certain number of units are reserves for low cost housing, so you're instantly 5-10% filled.
this is funny
MBA Puts Headquarters Up for Sale
The Mortgage Bankers Association, which lost money in its last fiscal year, has decided to put its Washington headquarters up for sale, 14 months after occupying the $100 million building. The property, which has proven to be a white elephant for the financially strapped trade group almost from the instant it was purchased in May 2008, is listed with Holliday Fenoglio Fowler, a national commercial brokerage firm. No asking price was mentioned in a letter this morning to the MBA membership. According to the letter, the decision to unload the structure at 1331 L Street was deemed by the MBA board to be "in the best interest" of the association, which will continue to lease "a substantial portion" of space as its HQ through 2020. According to the letter, the decision to buy the building in the first place was made by three different member-led task forces. But the letter did not say what many observers believe: that the decision cost former President Jonathan Kempner his job after a decade as the MBA's chief operating officer. That the MBA has been unable to lease much space to other tenants in what was described as "one of the most severe recessions in a century" was sited as a major reason for the sale. "The board concluded that continued ownership...was economically imprudent and over the long term would impair MBA's ability to continue to provide our members with MBA's full range of services," the letter said.
National Mortgage News
And in India there is no problem with the supply of unemployed illiterates. - RD
IIRC, the flip side of this system is sort of feudal. The "master" is supposed to take care of the servant in sickness, old age, etc. And if you've ever read novels about houses with servants, the whole thing is a complicated, manipulative PITA.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Unbelievable (well, not really, but you know what I mean).
The servant in the Indian family, News - City - Mumbai Mirror,Mumbai Mirror
......where do you think the illiterate kids will work after graduation? It's kind of like moving back home, except it's someone elses home with lots of chores.........
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
I think the word you are looking for is "inconceivable."
IQ scale -
Moron ~ 50-69
Imbecile ~ 20-49
Idiot ~ Below 20
As bad as our administrators, big investors, and policy makers are...do you see how this 'common' thesis or meme as to why our economy is collapsing following a long line of other national economies collapsing...might be a tough nut to crack with any legitimate support...
rich wrote:
But that is deflationary!
Ok.. new tip for bad economic news, just say in a loud clear voice:
"Clearly, this is a trailing indicator of the on-going recovery."
~splat
The 'idiot' thesis is not 'valid'.
scone wrote:
I'm thinking the new REAL Merican survival-of-the-fittest servant model might be different tho. I say we: use `em, and discard 'em. Sure they have rights, but not a right to MY hard earned money. If they don't like it, I'd just say to them: WHY DON'T YOU GET A JOB YOU LOSERS!!! I DON'T GET WELFARE, I WORK FOR A LIVING.
Remember, the dollar has lost something like 23% of it's value since 2000...
close, 18.66%
- Wolfram|Alpha
Jay Paul bought in at the end of the Dot Com crash but actually excaped the crash and made a killing.... (He made the tech companies prepay their rent) When he sold some of his properties it was a cash cow.....
Something tells me this crash isnt the same for him.....
(I worked on one of his projects in San Diego, massive, 100MM just for the dirt, a million an acre...)
I'd like to see the chart arranged by quintiles - Seriously Delinquent, Mostly Delinquent, Teen-like Delinquent, Absurdly Delinquent, Inconceivably Delinquent. It would be a public service.
C
Probably hard to graduate (with advanced degrees) from Ivy League Universities with an IQ of moron, imbecile, or idiot...even if one cheats on occasion...
@ RD
Look at this article, especially the literacy map (scroll down). There are many densely populated areas where the literacy is very high, especially the North East and Kerala. Also, look at the fertility rate-- just 2.72 per woman. That's pretty good for a developing country. That's one of many reasons why there is such growth there.
The statements in the article are misleading. Of course there are class distinctions between the masters and the servants-- they are most likely different castes. If you look closer, there is severe caste discrimination all over the society, as well as gender discrimination. It's a mistake to read one article and take it literally, especially if you try to do a one-to-one comparison between America and India. Their society was at an almost medieval level until fairly recently-- by our standards at least.
Demographics of India - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Folks here are smart. Everyone has been expecting this. ........everyone. Nuf said..
Counterpointer said:
Seriously C, I think we should go even further....perhaps open up a new kind of spying employment...
"Seriously Delinquent,just bought a new 2010 Hummer, parties @ location every weekend. Good food too!"
rosethorn wrote:
Just a slight detour on them making that perpetual 8% annual rate of return they'll need to pay those benefits out.
IQ range ~
Borderline deficiency - 70-80
Cramer's fans may be in this range...(just kidding).
merchants of fear (profile) wrote on Fri, 10/30/2009 - 5:42 pm
Probably hard to graduate (with advanced degrees) from Ivy League Universities with an IQ of moron, imbecile, or idiot...even if one cheats on occasion...
Undergraduates who go through a 'normal' application process (i.e. no legacy ties etc) are definitely not in that category, the majority are very gifted students. We shouldn't look to the Ivies/elites as a problem of intelligence -- the reality of why the people that get there, get there is a much deeper issue than drafting mental moron legacies. They are selecting people to occupy particular social echelons and circles of political and economic power in the future, and far more interested in socializing them to the realities of the ruling class than educating them.
OT, but not much hope for our future.
I'm staying home and doling out Halloween candy at the door. Wife and kids are out. Due to voluminous supply of candy, I've put in a roasting pan. Some local college kids came to the door and I answered it with the lid on the pan. Told them that I forgot to buy candy but I do have some fresh Turkey in the pan...who wants a drumstick?
Some of them actually believed me.
homedad43 wrote:
Are you in a different time-zone? Halloween is tomorrow where I'm at.
Especially if these college kids think Halloween is tonight, as opposed to tomorrow night.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Ok, while a rumor, its starting to feel like Friday.
Ok, I was surprised at the amount of
! Ok, we hung out today with another family (we have every other Friday off at work), so it was about kids and a great day enjoying the weather and pretty much ignoring economics.
Got
?
Neil
LOL! Or in the personals: "Seriously Delinquent, seeks Prudent Saver for longterm yin-yang match. Experience with bail bondsmen a plus".
C
derek wrote:
they were probably just lost, and had the munchies.
East Coast US. But the localities here are celebrating on Friday night. Who knows why...
Yep, they may be doing some informal pharmaceutical research as part of their college education.
Shoulda asked if they wanted to trade weed for a drumstick.
"IQ range ~
Borderline deficiency - 70-80
Cramer's fans may be in this range...(just kidding). "
That high? Surely you jest.
I would rather take a 2x4 multiple times to the head than watch Jim the clown Cramer.
Homedad,
I think this can only be attributed to a disruption in the time-space continuum due to the Large Hadron Collider.
HALLOWEEN STORMS: Last night, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) near Earth tilted south, an orientation that weakens our planet's magnetic defenses against solar wind.
homedad43 wrote:
They do that in the college town I live in too. Bugs the hell out of me. This year is the "offical" day, however. They usually only move it when it's on weekday night. I always go out on Halloween to avoid the little monsters.
'Theynode' is the most unpopular 'thesis' that will trigger retaliatory blurbs, closure of topic, and the charge of 'insanity'...but 'Theyalloweditnode' also is extremely unpopular is some of the blogosphere...so basically the 'idiotdidn'tnode' is the prevailing 'consensus' in proper blogging forums. Then there's the over-the top forums that mix global conspiracy, UFOs, and UN pandemic 'humanrace' genocide'.
Do you see how there is no really good 'thesis' available with supported evidence to explain serial political/economic collapses?
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
What is the textbook for that class?
I must have missed it, as I attended a public university.
ResistanceIsFeudal,
Yeah using the best minds for building huge unsustainable bubbles may be a process...and when all else fails hire a Watergate-type crew...LOL
"I'd like to see the chart arranged by quintiles - Seriously Delinquent, Mostly Delinquent, Teen-like Delinquent, Absurdly Delinquent, Inconceivably Delinquent. It would be a public service."
I have some of that data - let's just say the Inconceivably Delinquent bucket is the largest.
But, I am sure if those borrowers just get a lower interest rate, all will be fine. We'll just tack all those missed payments onto the balance, put them even deeper into debt slavery.
It's 4pm on the left coast, no FDIC bank heist today?
sm_landlord wrote:
The Theory of the Leisure Class - Google Books
Ok, that does it, I hereby sanction CIT as a failed friggn bogus bank and that means one important thing ..... it's
time! Feel free to join in!
Last week was the Southeast and Midwest - today General Bair attacks the Mountain West and the Pacific coast . . .
merchants of fear wrote:
What about the historically normal "greedy" thesis. The "smart amoral scumbags" stuffing their faces with loot until they burst. Leaving only THE "smartest amoral scumbag" left standing - in the debris of the other exploded ones - to start the game over again. It's my own personal "exploding smart amoral scumbag" thesis.
Regarding the "idiot" thesis. This always bugged me about The Frat boy in Chief. Idiots don't get to be president, regardless of how well connected they are. He was an intellectual lightweight tho.
maybe they gave everyone a break because it's Halloween.
The pattern is when someone tries to link some possibly 'informative' economic research, the blogger risks being thrown into the 'UFO/alien', (simplistic labeling) 'global conspiracy' crowd while maybe ignoring the actual series of cited research links by top economists.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
What about indescribably delinquent. Wasn't that a candy bar?
This article documents Mumbai 2009 or Merica 2019.
NaRm,
'Profit motive' sounds better than 'Greedy'...
merchants of fear (profile) wrote on Fri, 10/30/2009 - 6:02 pm
ResistanceIsFeudal,
Yeah using the best minds for building huge unsustainable bubbles may be a process...and when all else fails hire a Watergate-type crew...LOL
Hehe, yes, exactly. It's not conscious evil so much as simple greed that leads to a perception of conscious evil. The thought never occurred to many that their path to "get-rich-quick" means a lot of other people "get-poorer-faster", at least not until they were way too far inside the game.
sm_landlord -- public uni educated academic mongrel here
albrt (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 10/30/2009 - 6:04 pm
sm_landlord wrote:
What is the textbook for that class?
The Theory of the Leisure Class - Google Books
LOL, good choice. I have a copy right here on my shelf, actually, right next to Mills' "The Power Elite"
There's Kondratieff and Martin Armstrong. They were respectively killed and permanently jailed without trial by the respective governments of their day. Perhaps TPTB don't enjoy speculation on these subjects.
A little music while we wait on Ms Bair:
YouTube - KIDS HALLOWEEN MUSIC-The Great Pumkin Waltz
"The global warming graph shows temps decreasing for the last 10 years."
Or this:
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
"HALLOWEEN STORMS: Last night, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) near Earth tilted south, an orientation that weakens our planet's magnetic defenses against solar wind."
Earth chauvinism.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
That's why amoral would be superior to "moral with enough compensating duplicity and self-delusion". Being amoral would free the brain from extraneous work, allowing the attached human to rise to THE ultimate level of "smart amoral scumbag" enlightenment.
homedad43 wrote:
They were just as stupid 20 years ago. I have an excellent memory, and I live in a college town. Endless chances for comparison.
And the college students of 20 years ago are the mid-career bankers and financiers and real estate agents of today. No surprises there.
I, too, am leaning to a West Coast BFF. Too late for any other TZ except Mountain, and even there it's near the end.
If there is an 'evil' component in this Clustermess, it's in the fallout or results of bubble 'profits'...you know 'The Grapes of Wrath...the insensitivity of organized and cooperative 'Group Narcissism'...but this is the realm of abnormal psychology. And as you know law enforcement investigation principles look for 'conspiracies'...most crime is a cooperative effort...not that anything happened is a 'crime'...it's all been built on the Law & regulation and lack of it(deregulation)...but making laws or deregulating is a cooperative effort...
Investigations | Wind Energy Funds Going Overseas | Investigative Reporting Workshop
But of the $1.05 billion in clean-energy grants handed out by the government since Sept. 1, 84 percent – a total of $849 million – has gone to foreign wind companies. Spanish utility company, Iberdrola S.A., alone has collected $545 million through its American subsidiary...... Investigations | Wind Energy Funds Going Overseas | Investigative Reporting Workshop
The third brick wrote:
Link, please?
Pavel-- I saw that before, and I like this quote: "If you look at the data and sort of cherry-pick a micro-trend within a bigger trend, that technique is particularly suspect."
He was talking about the idea of global cooling, of course, but I would say that the whole global warming scare is arguable a cherry-picked micro-trend.
And the funny thing about trends is, they're trends until they're not.
Well, I guess the FDIC team has trick or treating duties too.
Wonder what they're dressed as tonight? Themselves?
But there is the 'trickery' and 'ponzis' that require cooperation...
The regulators missed it...
Dead Shtick wrote:
Sounds like CNBS with green-shoots. Hmmm, I wonder if there could be any similarity in people, motives (manipulation of their dumbasses), and political philosophies. naaaa....
Outsider wrote:
Wonder what they're dressed as tonight? Themselves?
If they do hit any banks, they should definitely dress as Zombies.
Doc:
Yeah, read that a Chinese company will be providing the turbines for a large windfarm here in US.
When the hell are we gonna learn? I'd rather pay a bit more and do domestic.
sm_landlord wrote:
Unless they hit a zombie bank... We wouldn't even notice them.
The NYC marathon this Sunday used to be in September, then October.
They had no political agenda, only bad PR from runners dropping dead in the heat.
Zombies are a big Halloween meme here as a matter of fact. Lots of kids with white pasty faces and blood.
Seriously.
homedad43 wrote:
Maybe we could pay people from India and China (Russia too) to regulate our banking system? Maybe we should be thinking outside the box and outsource the Treasury to China...
SEC, a truly exalted agency! Cox, GW, what's the difference, morons!
homedad43 wrote:
As I recall, there aren't any domestic manufacturers that make the right equipment for big wind farms. The countries that have been handing out big subsidies have the manufacturers.
Great, call the NY Fed and ask for Tim Geithner and get some 23 yo dude in Mumbai.
Santelli is yelling about 'dollar devaluation' at the 'pro-Fed apologist'.
Questioning the data~
'Who believes there's been 600,000 jobs saved?' - Santelli
Not just the Chinese cashing in on green energy.
Cashing In: German Energy Giants Eager for US Green Transformation - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 10/30/2009 - 6:21 pm
Being amoral would free the brain from extraneous work, allowing the attached human to rise to THE ultimate level of "smart amoral scumbag" enlightenment.
Truly. Luckily consciousness, evolution, or the unseen foot of dumb luck has arranged it so that becoming amoral takes a lot of work on the self/psyche, except for those "gifted" enough with a pathological degree of psychopathy plus sufficient intelligence to "naturally" predate upon normal society.
homedad43 wrote:
You know how the UNIONIZED labor drives up prices! The lazy bastard don't want to work for Chinese wages LET THEM STARVE. And when they're out of work, you know what I'd say: GET A JOB YOU LAZY BUMS. I DON'T GET WELFARE, I WORK FOR A LIVING.
It's those unions that ruined this great and glorious nation. Unions and those people that expect more money than they deserve.
merchants of fear wrote:
Santelli had better be careful, or he'll get CNBC slammed on the White House web site tomorrow.
In jail, Madoff is peddling the 'idiot thesis' that SEC didn't know there was a ponzi and it never even occured to this government regulatory agency'.
Is this where the 'idiot thesis' is coming from?
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 10/30/2009 - 4:32 pm
* reply
* Ignore user
homedad43 wrote:
When the hell are we gonna learn? I'd rather pay a bit more and do domestic.
You know how the UNIONIZE labor drives up prices! The lazy bastard don't want to work for Chinese wages LET THEM STARVE. And when they're out of work, you know what I'd say: GET A JOB YOU LAZY BUMS. I DON'T GET WELFARE, I WORK FOR A LIVING.
Sm_landlord:
Thanks for ruining a perfectly good rant with facts. And now I can't even have a beer since I've been munching on chocolate.
Zombies are a big Halloween meme here as a matter of fact. Lots of kids with white pasty faces and blood.
Seriously.
Well, popcap games does have that Plants vs. Zombies hit game out right now. I hear it's pretty addicting. Not that I would know, of course.
homedad43 wrote:
How could things be any different? If anything the kid in Mumbai wouldn't have had the balls to help steal a few trillion -- we'd still be talking millions!
Hey the banner says I can open a NRE rupee accout at ICICI Bank....wo ho
Yeah, saw that rupee account too. Wonder if the statements smell like curry?
call the NY Fed and ask for Tim Geithner and get some 23 yo dude in Mumbai.
I'll bet on the dude from Mumbai 'cause he has prolly never heard of GS
sm_landlord wrote:
Welcommen to Amerika!
Well, this is a "dead" crowd.
Heh heh.
Back to enviously watching the kids monge their milk duds now, which I can't do anymore without the risk of serious dental work. Good evening to all.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Is the FDIC unionized?
Don't confuse the issue with facts, I just want to get to the truth.... <- somewhat stolen from Stephen Colbert
~splat
Speaking of believing anything.
Years ago I worked as a sysadmin at a small company. I was moving around someone's network connection and warned her of the following:
1) Make sure there are no bends in the cable because just like a water hose that could cause your network connection to speed up and then down.
2) When you unplug the cable make sure you put your thumb over the end so that no bits leak out.
It was well known that I was a joker there. Unfortunately months later I heard her warning very seriously about these issues to another co-worker.
homedad - gotta love curries...mmm!
So is it some kind of a sign when a guy I ride the train with tells me that he bought Iraqi dinars? This same guy bought GM and scoffed when I suggested BK was in their immediate future. He said, "they'll never let GM go bankrupt." or something to that effect.
Doc Holiday wrote:
Aren't all government employees? Besides them military, of course.
homedad43 wrote:
Sorry. Here:
Big Reds go great with chocolate.
poic wrote:
Did you ever tell her you were going out to find a cable stretcher?
In breaking news that violates the Dawg win conventions, Jerry Brown was just elected the next Governor of California.
Well me tinks it will be a failed BFF
But might as well have a beer anyway.
I went long on utilites today
"Big Reds go great with chocolate"
Edit: Big Redheads go great with chocolate - and this goes either way (lol)
Ok, It's official, it's still time for a
and a toast to outsourcing FDIC!! 
Rob Dawg wrote:
I thought he was going to run for dogcatcher next, after being Mayor of Oakland.
"Did you ever tell her you were going out to find a cable stretcher? "
Oh yeah and a guy (who later became a good friend) in University asked me about a big scar on my elbow from a bike accident. I explained in a very serious voice how I got nicked by a shark while swimming off the coast in Yugoslavia but managed to make it back into the boat despite the copious loss of blood.
A year later while having dinner at his house I had to explain that it was a joke when he brought the story up with his mother.
I try not to make those sorts of jokes anymore.
"When you unplug the cable make sure you put your thumb over the end so that no bits leak out"
poic - you owe me a new keyboard...barley everywhere
sm_landlord wrote:
No. His plan is to seek lower offices.
Maybe the whole FDIC thing is all about hookers and blow? Maybe they are unable to put the right package deal together this weekend?
poic wrote:
Old joke that TV engineers used to try: warn people not to put their finger over the end of a loose video cable. Could get serious video burns.
poic wrote:
I like it. I had a co-worker who was a hunt n peck typer. He was out for a few days and I took the opportunity to pop a few keys off his keyboard and re-arrange them. The "m" and "n" were swapped, as were a few others. He came back to work and by 10:30 still unable to log in was certain someone had reset his password. He called the help desk to have them reset it and he still couldn't log in. At the point where they were sending someone to help him in person another co-worker who knew what I had done burst out laughing and gave me up.
Another one I'm kind of proud of involved a nice Cutter and Buck windbreaker we were giving out to customers. One of the customers was a bit large so we took a medium sized pullover and sewed a XXL tag into it. When he came to pick it up we suggested that they ran a little small and he should try it on. He got it over his head and not much further - very much looked like a sausage escaping from the casing. He more than anybody got a good laugh out of it - if I hadn't known him really, really well I wouldn't have done this.
nakedcapitalism has this actual quote from Rosner.
"Rosner’s actual language is somewhat over-the-top:
If leadership won’t add such language [reigning in the TBTFs], call your elected official and ask how much they actually receive when they agree to put on the kneepads."
RE: BFF
There's still time for a SoCal Trifecta.
In electronics it's well known that semi-conductor integrated circuits are manufactured using 'magic smoke' because as has been proven many times by a tech, when you short an IC smoke comes out and the device stops working. Thus proving that 'magic smoke' powers modern computer chips.
~splat
I wrote a program and added a few pop-ups that were triggered by certain common user errors. Or maybe just had them popup on a radom basis... Anyways, I was working for the US District Court.
They would say something like:
WARNING! WARNING!
YOU HAVE VIOLATED PROTOCOL ALPHA
PLEASE REMAIN SEATED> THE US MARSHALLS HAVE BEEN DISPATCHED!
poic wrote:
My Dad had a sebaceous cyst removed from his face in the late '50s before he met my Mom. When she asked about it, he told her he got it in a knife fight. In the early '70s, she repeated this story to their best "couple" friends; unfortunately, they already knew it was from a surgical procedure, not a knife fight. That was good for more than a few laughs
cinco-x lol good one
sm_landlord (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 10/30/2009 - 6:30 pm
As I recall, there aren't any domestic manufacturers that make the right equipment for big wind farms. The countries that have been handing out big subsidies have the manufacturers.
Wind farms are a major growth area -- there are an amazing number of them going up, as is noticeable in industrial demand for power equipment and projects (since very little else is moving forward). They require a lot of power, surprisingly enough. Ethanol plants took off in much the same way several years back, sprouting up like weeds.
Jerry Brown was a pi**-poor governor the LAST time out the gate - what makes him think he'll do a better job THIS time? More wisdom? Dumber legislators? No one else want the job?........I still remember a long time ago when he was courting Linda Ronstadt, and the two of them were running around in their "all-togethers" below us in the Holly Hills........the old man used to call him up.........
Glad I didnt buy one of their CDs last week as we drove by the branch.
U.S. Bank to take over Pacific NationalOctober 30, 2009 7:17 PM ET
U.S. Bank will take over Pacific National Bank once federal regulators take control of the struggling San Francisco institution Friday evening, a source close to bank management has confirmed.
The move appears to be part of a larger takeover of Pacific National parent company FBOP Corp. and its eight bank subsidiaries. Regulators have been collecting bids for the Illinois-based banking company. As of early this week, bidders had been told their offers were insufficient. It is unclear if U.S. Bancorp, based in Minneapolis, subsequently raised its offer.
Earlier this month, Pacific National's difficulties were highlighted in a report that listed it among the nation’s most undercapitalized banks.
Pacific National had been attempting to raise $1 billion in new capital, but was unsuccessful.
Many of Pacific National's troubles reflect large holdings in stock of Fannie Mae, a government sponsored funder of home mortgages. That stock is now effectively worthless.
When you subsidize the crap out of any BS 'green technology' people jump on the subsidies bandwagon to make a buck no matter how crap and impractical it really is.
~splat
BF's on the left coast today?
Big Local Bank Faces Federal Takeover: Sources |
NBC San Diego
San Diego Business Journal Online - business news for San Diego, California
Now I see that San Diego National and Pacific National are part of the same parent corp.
All together, that will be a pretty hefty whale for the deposit fund to eat.
Get ready for three beers at 6:00 pm PST.
Ok WTF about a shitty possibility or a story that hints @
Regulators crack down on Prosperan Bank, Maple Bank - Minneapolis / St. Paul Business Journal:
Prosperan Bank’s capital levels have fallen to critical levels. In the enforcement action, regulators said it must have a Tier 1 capital ratio, which determines how well it can sustain losses, of 10 percent. The bank's second quarter call report, which was updated in September, said its Tier 1 capital level was only 1.1 percent. The bank has also lost $9.6 million in the first six months of 2009.
Just had a meeting with my contractor. He had to lay off his whole crew, who went to a framer, but then they got laid off again. The work I can give them is only about 3 days, little things. Evidently that's all that's going on. But he still has hope that things will turn around, and I agreed with him for mercy's sake. It's all very sad.
Linda Ronstadt was awesome once. A very long time ago...
Black Star Ranch wrote:
Better then than now; I understand she's put on a little weight
Catch'a next week-
Her cousin was my CO
Valley Bank target of cease and desist order - South Florida Business Journal:
As of Sept. 30, Fort Lauderdale-based Valley Bank’s had a Tier 1 capital ratio of 8.24 percent and a total risk-based capital ratio of 10.91 percent. The bank has lost $918,000 in the first nine months of this year. It had $138.1 million in assets and 3.78 percent of its loans were noncurrent on Sept. 30.
Henson said he’s confident his three banks will meet those capital requirements. He said the parent company would add capital to the Fort Lauderdale bank if necessary.
....
I had a co-worker who was a hunt n peck typer. He was out for a few days and I took the opportunity to pop a few keys off his keyboard and re-arrange them. The "m" and "n" were swapped, as were a few others. He came back to work and by 10:30 still unable to log in was certain someone had reset his password
Mike next time first start a rumour that layoffs are about to start...
nove - given your old employeer this is funny
If they are taking FBOP down, that is a $14 billion holding company:
Cal National Bank Los Angeles $5.6 billion
Park National Bank Chicago 3.8 billion
San Diego National Bank San Diego, California 2.4 billion
Pacific National Bank San Francisco, California 1.3 billion
North Houston Bank Houston, Texas 326 million
Madisonville State Bank Madisonville, Texas 183 million
Bank USA Phoenix, Arizona 138 million
Community Bank of Lemont Lemont, Illinois 96 million
Citizens National Bank Teague, Texas 64 million
The Socialist coast is grabbing all the FDIC $ this BFF, no wonder they didn't close anything in Eastern and Central time zones.
splat (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 10/30/2009 - 6:49 pm
When you subsidize the crap out of any BS 'green technology' people jump on the subsidies bandwagon to make a buck no matter how crap and impractical it really is.
~splat
Yep. A majority of those ethanol plants have shut down or are looking at conversion options. Folks were getting large dividend checks in the heydays, which are of course gone. There is a market of course, but it is much, much smaller than presently anticipated (with copious amounts of hopium and changium). IMHO it will become a small, very specialized niche within a decade absent massive subsidies.
Um...yeah. "FBOP, worth an estimated $18 billion...evidence is piling up that federal regulators have decided not to extend a Sept. 30 deadline for FBOP to increase its capital levels, and will soon seize the company’s eight banks in California, Arizona, Illinois and Texas."
"FBOP, which is entirely owned by Chicago billionaire Michael Kelly"...correction "was owned"
Sheila thinks they have an image prob over at FDIC:
The article requested is no longer available.
No dead banks yet?
StreetInsider.com - Tower Financial Corporation Reports Third Quarter Results
While the loss for the quarter was a disappointment, the mark to market accounting issue or OTTI charge did not impact capital, and the loan loss provision does not reflect any deterioration in our overall loan portfolio. Unfortunately, values of collateral in some markets continue to fall, and we added appropriate reserves relating to these four previously identified non-performing loans," stated President and CEO, Mike Cahill
LL
Just BoA
""FBOP, which is entirely owned by Chicago billionaire Michael Kelly"...correction "was owned""
further correction, former billionaire
lawyerliz wrote:
lawyerliz wrote:
Rumor has it FBOP is going down - 8 banks and $18 bilion in assets - many on left coast so they will wait for the takedown
Yeah, right.
The restaurant we ate at was nearly full--but on a Friday nite, usually the bar
area is full and people are sitting outside with pagers.
FBOP: "I'm not dead yet! I'm getting better."
while it might be fashionable to beat up on Indian programmers- the Indian banking system in some instances is way ahead of the United States e.g. the banks all have virtual keyboards for logging in online, often have two tiers of security one for just looking at the account and a second level if you actually want to move funds, and what I like best- every time there is some activity in your bank or credit card account there is a text message sent to your cell phone.
had it not been Chinese , it probably would have been an Indian company or a Danish.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Finding out who buys it may be very informative. FDIC? Green energy lobbyists? A nameless foreign investor?