Exactly how many recoveries have been accompanied by the Federal Reserve and Congress indiscriminately throwing half of the GDP at it?

How many have been accompanied by our largest demographic group suffering a catastrophic loss in net worth and income?

Biden's econ. advisor Bernstein said all of this quarter's GDP growth was due to govt. stimulus. Roemer said earlier that stimulus bounce to GDP would peak 3rd qtr and have very little effect in the 4th qtr. or next year.

It was the BEA who is wrong on inventories. No way did they add 0.9% to GDP. It's not consistent with anything out there.
It's the preliminary report. They just applied the traditional seasonal production/depletion patterns on to the current cycle. If auto sales had surged 30% during a regular August all on their own, they might have been right. It all came from inventory. Wait until they get the real figures in over the next 2 months. The inventory is a complete guess based on end sales for preliminary reports.
For that matter I think they overstated imports just by extrapolating from volumes.
If the BEA was right, we would have achieved positive job growth by the end of September. But that didn't happen. Because inventories are not yet rebuilding. Which is what we see in all the regional industry surveys.

This is exactly what I'd expect a recovery to look like.

That's exactly what the man behind the curtain was hoping you'd say.

CR,
I'm not calling anyone out to defend these figures. I do trust the BEA, and am happy for them to stick with consistent methodology until we revert to a stable economy.
I'm just jumping ahead where I think it is warranted, because the lack of net inventory build is supported by a very broad range of indicators. There were significant revisions on GDP growth contribution composition earlier this year, and I would definitely expect to see the same even if I end up being wrong.
To me the biggest story lines are the reported swings in inventory and imports, or at least the ones most deserving of re-visiting in the advance and final reports.

Mish: Disposable personal income decreased $20.4 billion (0.7 percent) in the third quarter... Real disposable personal income decreased 3.4 percent

I can't deny SOME of the indicators show a bit of recovery. But much of the indicators are full of holes or deliberate pumping. But, CR, let's say you are correct that the direction MAY be indicative. It is like the little engine that could, except the weight of train may be greater than the motive power of the engine. The economy is thinking/trying to say I think I can, but the hill isn't surmounted yet, and the train may roll back down the hill and become a runaway.

The BEA puts out a report that explains the process from advance estimate to final: very interesting article

But you already know how that works; more for self education

Some research on accuracy of estimates: SpringerLink - Journal Article

"both the advance and final current quarterly estimates are found to do a reliable job of measuring GDP and GDI around cyclical peaks, but a less reliable job around cyclical troughs, the declines preceding the troughs are overstated and the upturns after the troughs are understated."

I just spoke w/ my credit card companies to notify them of my recent change of address...

Interestingly, at the end of the call they each tried to sell me credit-fraud insurance. Neither tried to get me to move balances over from other credit cards, like they used to always do.

I ask again, where does credit contraction usually fit into an "Immaculate Recovery"? Before, During, or After?

A declining population means fewer babies, more old people. Japan is giving you a preview of what that's going to look like.

The only other way is to kill all the middle aged off in a huge war and then pop out a bunch of babies.

planet would be better off ... I don't want to have to look at yet more housing...

In other words, you want it because you would be better off.

Pellice wrote:

I don't want to have to look at yet more housing developments, strip malls, "shops and restaurants."

So why are you still looking at them? There are plenty of empty places left in just this country. They are the cheapest places to live, too. Me thinks perhaps you want to see wide open spaces from the comfort of your modern home. You want civilization for you, without the trappings of civilization?

TJ and the Bear,

Forget the Q on Q income numbers. The yoy numbers are even worse. Private incomes are down ~ 7% from 2007!

The costs of preserving all this fraudulent credit issued by bonus seeking bankers is going to ruinous for the majority.

Bernanke should be fired immediately. What he is doing is a crime.

Spot On!

CR wrote: Much was made yesterday of Goldman Sachs Q3 GDP forecast of 2.7%. My understanding is the reason the forecast was a little low was because they underestimated changes in private inventories. Goldman forecast this boost would happen in Q4, so they will probably revise down their Q4 forecast.

The coefficient for the bonus that sets the PCE of the modeler who made this forecast has certainly been reduced to reflect this error. GS is nothing if not Darwinian.

poic wrote:

Bernanke should be fired immediately.

Obama fire his biggest fund raiser?

forgot to mention non-durable goods. huge spike. Can anyone provide color on that?

You want civilization for you, without the trappings of civilization?

Bingo. That's what I was trying to say. You said it a lot better.
No one wants refineries, gas wells, nukes, etc. And yet everyone wants the ability to travel, a warm lighted house, and a/c.

Double-digit housing appreciation will return to Orange County next year

"Major koolaid spill in the OC -- full story at 5!"

poic wrote:

I didn't write that, Angry Saver did.

Sorry poic. There must be crossed wires somewhere. Maybe in my head, but my screen still shows that you did.

What some people don't realize is that 80 years ago when we started the current system post GD 1.0 we started as a ponzi system. The outcome was baked in the cake from day one.

Debt based ponzi systems require the creation of ever increasing amounts of debt to service the current debt. Debt based ponzi systems collapse when they stop growing.

The reason why Geithner and Bernanke say there isn't any plan B is because there really isn't any plan B. We either get the current debt based ponzi system going again and running for another few decades or we crash and burn.

I'm all for cleaning up the mess, all for sending people to jail. But at least understand the above about our system.

and we should begin by ending oldster entitlement policies like Prop 13, Social Security payouts to the wealthy, and the tax exempt status of govt bonds - right Dawg?

Was in a meeting with a company that assists our company with UI claims - most states trust funds are insolvent, they in turn are borrowing from the government - and the FUA has been insolvent for 6 months - recently borrowed $6+ billion to be able to keep up with the rate of requests coming in from the states. If these loans are not paid back within 2 years, employers are looking at a fairly significant increase to FUTA rates - on top of a possible increase in the FUTA taxable wage base from $7000 per employee to $9000+.

Any thought on what, (if any) problems this additional expense on employers will cause?

HollywoodHack wrote:

and we should begin by ending oldster entitlement policies like Prop 13, Social Security payouts to the wealthy, and the tax exempt status of govt bonds - right Dawg?

It's only fair because the youngest have suffered the most from expensive housing policies, tuitition+fees increasing 4x the rate of inflation, the outsourcing of entry level jobs, the decline in real income for the majority of the population, and the worst job market on record

poic,

If it all crashes then do we get a reboot with 80 years before the next one?

I am attempting to be...I don't know what. Actually, this may be a good thing. Rebuild for the coming climate and resource changes. The old model does not work now and it sure won't work in 30 years.

HollywoodHack wrote:

and we should begin by ending oldster entitlement policies like Prop 13, Social Security payouts to the wealthy, and the tax exempt status of govt bonds - right Dawg?

Nah. I'm loathe to establish tiered citizenship categories. I do think tax exempt status should be applied evenly. Where's that pesky interstate commerce clause when it actually applies?

don't forget the state income tax rate and abandoned school districts requiring tuition spent elsewhere, yet another layer of many punishments on young families, at least here in CA.

but my ire against the '47-'61 "worst generation" for utterly destroying the country has largely dissipated - I've personally seen so many destroyed in the past year by their horrible decisions, personally and collectively.

I should have read the thread before commenting.

"No so. Credit money systems do NOT have to be ponzi schemes. Ours is, but it isn't designed that way. And credit money systems CAN deflate without collapsing. Real capital will remain after a the ponzi debt deflates. Admittedly, a lot of innocents would discover that their investment vehicles were actually shams."

But ours is as should be very apparent now.

"Admittedly, a lot of innocents would discover that their investment vehicles were actually shams."

which is GD 2.0 with all that it entails. I really think you under-estimate that drastic affects that would result to our country.

EHP,

I didn't know Canada waited that long to publish theirs. I have always wondered why the US was so quick when so much of the hard data isn't even available for 2 months or more after the quarter end, but you are right, so many want something to hang a hat on when it comes to the US economy.

Rob Dawg wrote:

The answer to too much government intervention is not more intervention.

The answer to stupid intervention might be smarter intervention. But that doesn't seem to be on the table, so I'll concede for now.

Look at how all the doomy weather posters have melted away in the radiance of recovery.

I liken this situation to Apollo 13's mid-course correction.

They're still pushing buttons and pulling levers.

If they screw up, and they easily could, this economy will head off into interplanetary space.

albrt wrote:

The answer to stupid intervention might be smarter intervention.

NWIH with the "leaders" we have.

@ Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 5:00 pm
People have no clue. All the major actions taken to date have one common purpose - to preserve the value of fraudulently issued credit. They can't preserve the value of the credit via inflation so they do it with the full faith and credit of the people....What a sham.

Yes I agree and it's a cryin shame....

EHP,

I embrace your doominess. It is far less cryptic than mps. Your doom has real meat on the bones

poic,

Prior to abandoning the gold standard during GD1, there were many periods of deflation. Infact, the overall trend for more than 100 years was deflation. And gold is an asset just like a house, a car or a factory. SOme of the deflations were price based like we have now in computers and electronic. Some were credit deflations which hurt the wealthy, the banks and the speculators.

The fed is supposed to enhance growth and employment. It does neither. The Fed is there to preserve fraudulent bank credit. I believe the majority would be better off (in short order) if the burden of ponzi debt were allowed to deflate. For one thing, houses would be more affordable. That affordability would come at the expense of creditors that made bad loans. But the majority would benefit. As it stands now, Bernanke is protecting the creditors by making the majority pay more for houses.

LOL let's have a off.

poic
It is my hope to one day visit Hungary and open a Hippopotamus exhibit

HollywoodHack
Sometimes the best thing you can do is to let someone finish their own mistake

EHP,

Sorry. I am turning away from your vision of doom. poic is much more persuasive and has a doomier doom than your brand of doom.

"Sorry. I am turning away from your vision of doom. poic is much more persuasive and has a doomier doom than your brand of doom."

Actually I think we'll limp along for a good few decades IMO. And I live in California where the streets run pink with koolaid from dawn to dusk.

Approaching orbital insertion at Uranus, Captain. What do we do now?

If that happens, put your head between your legs and kiss your ass goodbye.

EHP,

I sense a disturbance in your doomfield. Don't let your call on the GDP get you down. We all make mistakes and yours was to the doomside were all is forgiven.

nova,
You have outed me as a non-doomer. I just try to run from port to starboard ahead of the crowd

Two points:

1. This number will be revised down as the full September data comes in, the first revision will probably be to 3.1% growth.
2. This set a high bar for Q4, I was predicting near 0% growth but now expect it to be nearer to -0.5%.

RGE - U.S. Real GDP Growth: Should We Really Get Excited?

Ahhh no not really

...the slow descent into squalor.

Never underestimate the power of squalor.

The descent into squalor is going to make somebody a lot of money.

The descent into squalor is going to make somebody a lot of money.

Already has.

We scorched a lot of earth and sea to live large these past 5 or 6 decades. I can't help but think that is where the true black swan lurks.

Re: system crashes.

My brothers girlfriend left Thailand to go to England after the currency crash to try to make money to help her parents.

Tons of formerly middle class very quickly became lower class. Many rich people became middle class/lower class overnight.

It took a good 5 years minimum for things to stabalize.

Big jump in prostitution, homelesness etc..,

re: Shell
They did say that 'most' of their oil & gas was sold 6 months ahead of time. Given the fairly responsive decreases in gasoline consuumption to price increases, there ought to be a tsunami of oil by December

Neville Chamberlain was a manager and a bureaucrat. He wouldn't have been remembered if the context of his leadership was stable.
We have today many nurses, when all we need a single doctor to operate

3Q2009:

• 10.1T in consumer expenditures = 90K per household when we know that average household income = 65K. Spending is 1.35X income

4Q1995:

• 5T in consumer expenditures = 50K per household when average household income = 45K. 1.11X income.

So if we go back to the same ratio of 1.11X of spending to income (and that is still overspending), GDP would decline by around 1.5 to 2 trillion.

mp wrote:

truck driver coffee,

I don't need information that badly.

nova - what is the apocalypse story going to do if things do turn upwards?

He'll write stories about people who slip on piles of pony skittles.

What we're experiencing now is the slow but steady decline of a civilization, characterized by ethical & moral decay, corruption, polarization, etc.

TJ, I think you're absolutely right. I have those Gibbons' books about the decline & fall of the Roman empire. Someday I hope to read them. (After I read the book Byz mentioned, Barbarians at the Gates about RJR Nabisco, so far that's pretty interesting.) I think there'd be a lot of similarities.

Maybe if we want to know the future, we just need to read about Rome.

Yeah, but you CR, have NOT extended your blue bars.

Or I could go back to writing bad poetry and worse blues music.

Just got a book on Hadrian, and perforce Trajan.

Great Roman Emperors--as emperors go.

Unemployment problems. Military adventurism.

A lot sounds very familiar.

And neither created a dynasty, neither had kids, 'cause they were
both gay.

lawyerliz wrote:

And neither created a dynasty, neither had kids, 'cause they were both gay.

However the era of adopted Caesars was one of their strongest eras post Augustus. The fact that caesars were adopting men who had proven themselves through their merits and not through nepotism was a big reason for that era's growth and stability.

BTW, nova, I had to get rid of my guineas. The neighbor was after them with a bb gun. I guess they can grate on neighbors' nerves. Just for future reference. Otherwise, I got really attached to them - they're great birds.

Still have a few chicken hens in there. I'll get a nice loud rooster in the spring to really tick the neighbors off.

barfly wrote:

I'd much prefer a crash.
What we're experiencing now is the slow but steady decline of a civilization, characterized by ethical & moral decay, corruption, polarization, etc

Bad news. The corruption and moral decay is basically 100% complete, and now we're going to get a crash on top of it. We'll find out how resilient cynical adolescents with no practical skills (meaning most Americans between ages 10 and 75) can be.

albrt wrote:

The corruption and moral decay is basically 100% complete

Impossible.

I haven't slept with Dawg or Liz yet.

We'll find out how resilient cynical adolescents with no practical skills (meaning most Americans between ages 10 and 75) can be.

They'll shape up just fine. Some of them will look just dandy in their paramilitary organizations uniforms.

broward wrote:

I haven't slept with Dawg and Liz yet.

There, fixed it for ya

albrt, I didn't write that part. TJ did. Perhaps I should have spelled that out. My response followed in the two lines under that quote.

Got yunguns that need tucking.

OK, 90% complete.

But capitalism helped us focus on wiping out the most economically important 90% of our moral and cultural capital first, so my model doesn't give too much weight to the vestigial 10% that is basically just prudishness.

I prefer "Cloaks of Increasing Squalor", but that is just me.

lawyerliz wrote:

Should we be flattered or mad

You're right.
It was wrong to include you and Dawg in the same sentence.

If there is a god there will be a . And soon.

albrt (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 8:43 pm

Bad news. The corruption and moral decay is basically 100% complete, and now we're going to get a crash on top of it. We'll find out how resilient cynical adolescents with no practical skills (meaning most Americans between ages 10 and 75) can be.

I'd have to disagree, in fact I think we have a lot further to go in corruption and moral decay. We've only rotted the foundation and infrastructure so far in addition to hollowing out our industrial base as well as undermining liberal education. There is so much left to fall! We're seeing only the beginning of moral hazard... wait until bad faith REALLY takes off, regret and anger at being duped/screwed intensifies, and suicide rates spike as people seek desperately for an escape hatch to life.

The Celts are playin' great liz! Oh, not those Celts...

Bad news. The corruption and moral decay is basically 100% complete

I think when Mothers are selling their daughters on street corners and the White House is using POW's from Gitmo as torches to light parties -- then we will be getting close. Until then all I can say is the one word that crushes all good in its path. All that is bright. All that smells of summer days and cotton sundresses.

TRUMP

Why? I don't mind being in the same sentence with you.

if there was no one to hear it?

Let me be very clear. I would NOT much prefer a crash. It was TJ and the Bear who said that.

How long do we wait in a not-a- condition before
faith would be lost?

yagij wrote:

Sounds like Jesusland annexed your part of Canada.

When commenters on Canada's national television/radio station website start referencing Bilderberg/Illuminati/NWO in all seriousness, like it's actually an appropriate rationale for not wanting to take a fucking vaccine, it indicates to me that it's time to unplug the Internet for a while. Insanity.

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

if there was no one to hear it?

OT TIME!
.
A woman calls today and asks if lawyers at my firm handle "domestic assault". I ask a lawyer what I should do with the caller since I know that no one wants to touch a domestic violence case for any love of money. I get the information I need and tell the caller that she should head down to the county lockup and fill out the paperwork for a petition to get protection order ex parte. Then she corrects me and tells me that it isn't for her. It is for her son. Apparently he got in a fight with his girlfriend that consistent of nothing but "shouting and walking near each other" but the over-zealous cops arrested the college-aged boy anyway.
.
It made me proud to be an American. Who says the kids today are coddled?

lawyerliz wrote:

Why? I don't mind being in the same sentence with you.

Mutual I'm sure. I'm a little cranky, dinner is late and I'm ready to move on is all.

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

You need to sign on to Millenialism or Chiliasm for sure. You get the Rupture and the infidels burn in hellfire for their bad deeds.

No, no, no! You miss understand. I want to remain safe and financially secure so I can get cheap stuff buy hot daughters from their mothers and live like the despot I always dreamed to be. I don't need any of that EotW and Coming of the Savior stuff ruining the MOMO.

If yer thinking about buying gold, best not wait until after Halloween:

The Golden Truth: If You Are Looking To Buy Gold, I Wouldn't Wait Past Halloween:

Persian?

nova wrote:

Assyrian?

Persian? Egyptian? Deze Nuts?

I know! The NRA - the first version for bowmen

Yancey Ward wrote:

and the dead Chris Farley.

Nothing that Tu Pac and his 10+ CDs post-mortum can't numb.

nova wrote:

Assyrian?

That's what google tells me, but I don't trust it.

I don't want to be head of the Fed. Jeebus reading the bible 4 or 5 times paid off.

ok Jim - what is the oldest word in the English language?

nova wrote:

ok Jim - what is the oldest word in the English language?

Prostitute. Oh, wait...nevermind.

noob goldberg wrote:

That's what google tells me, but I don't trust it.

Always trust google...

The assyrians got their asses busted by the Babylonians, Medes, and Cimmerians, with the fall of Nineveh in 619 BCE (in modern Iraq). A much more interesting fall story than Rome. They ruled from Iran to Turkey, and down into Egypt's doorstep.

The F word? (lol)

yagij (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 9:02 pm

No, no, no! You miss understand. I want to remain safe and financially secure so I can get cheap stuff buy hot daughters from their mothers and live like the despot I always dreamed to be. I don't need any of that EotW and Coming of the Savior stuff ruining the MOMO.

Dammit man, that was my strategy! The EOTW babble just reduces competition. I always wanted a harem!

Mine?

If there's one market in the world I've learned to watch as a canary in the coal mine for the global stock market (and leveraged speculation), it's Taiwan. Look what it's done the last week or two. Then, watch what it does today, after a very strong lead from the U.S. market. For a long time, the Taiwan market has been a hedge fund casino.

RUN!

nova wrote:

ok Jim - what is the oldest word in the English language?

Second try: Derivatives?

[later folks. teevee time in PST.]

Its abyss!!!!!!!!!

JimPortlandOR wrote:

A much more interesting fall story than Rome. They ruled from Iran to Turkey, and down into Egypt's doorstep.

I find it intriguing how ancient empires managed to control such vast swaths of geography for so long while facing those barriers to real-time communication, transportation, and administration. A true feat, if you ask me.
.
.
.
nova wrote:

I have used that countless times to pick up hot chicks at the Holiday Inn buffet

I can't think of a pick-up line with the word abyss in it that wouldn't get me slapped:

"Hey baby, when I saw you reach under the sneeze guard for those croutons, I was definitely admiring your _______"

"When I look into your eyes, all I can see is an endless dark _______"

"Why don't we pack up these flapjacks into a doggy bag and see what kind of _______ we can fall into".

It certainly is.

This reminds of the four different types of orgasm.

Acceptance Yes, yes, yes!

Denial No, no no!

Religious Oh God Oh god!

Fake Oh (insert name of whoever you are making fun of at the time)...

Comrade Kristina wrote:

This reminds of the four different types of orgasm.

You forgot number five:

The S&M ball-gag orgasm: Mphhgg! Mphhgg! MMPRGHMMRRGG!

It wasn't Victoria, but it was some noblewoman, now
I forget who.

Abyss???

noob goldberg wrote:

The S&M ball-gag orgasm: Mphhgg! Mphhgg! MMPRGHMMRRGG!

Post of night!
bye for now

TJ, your notion smacks of an unrealistic idealism. It wouldn't even be OK if there were only adults involved.

That Fred graph means what.

10% of each dollar lent is going to money hell.

Or, dead. Dead electrons, now there is a graph.

Bargaining and anger are understood to be the
background static.

lawyerliz wrote:

Bargaining and anger are understood to be the background static.

In my house, the bargaining and anger stage is called 'foreplay'.

CR,
I am a long time subscriber to the monthly, and a long time reader (has it been 3 years??) but you have gone off the deep end. Sharp, clear, and biting insight was your best value, but now you poo poo data that is government influenced heavily as if it was real information. I am saddened by this. At a time when we need the most voices with the clearest signal, you want to play "now may be a time to play a recession is ending" game and I have nothing left to say. Thanks for the great times, thanks for the graphs, but shame on you for playing the game. So very sad.

barfly wrote:

TJ, your notion smacks of an unrealistic idealism.

Geez, I thought only diehard liberals were subject to unrealistic idealism.

Read a little history barfly and you'll find it's not a notion. Besides, how you can prefer a slow descent into hell instead of a brief round trip is beyond me.

EconomicDisconnect wrote:

At a time when we need the most voices with the clearest signal, you want to play "now may be a time to play a recession is ending" game and I have nothing left to say.

I disagree. The recession almost certainly did end, at least when looking at a subset of metrics. CR is simply being honest with that assessment. He is also being honest with his assessment of the headwinds facing the economy in 2010.

If you want someone to spoon-feed you rhetoric, I can name a few other economics blogs that might better fill that void. But I think I speak for quite a few when I say that I appreciate CR's reticence to wax rhetorically. It's refreshing.

barfly wrote:

I can't imagine what useful purpose would be served that would outweigh the deleterious effects of allowing the world's largest economy to crash.

That's just it -- it's going to crash anyway, you just seem bent on enjoying the descent, whereas I'd prefer to get it over with and (to borrow another lefty favorite) MOVE ON.

Again, if the slow decline works so damned well why aren't we all Romans???

TJ and The Bear wrote:

Again, if the slow decline works so damned well why aren't we all Romans???

Do Christians count?

Must be British. Here in the states we say "refusal to sling bullshit".

If a recession is officially ended when certain measurements meet
certain points, well, ok.

But that would be like calling hurricane Andrew a 4, not a cat 5, which
was done for a while for political reasons, then it turned into a 5.

If Andrew wasn't a 5, than nothing would be a 5.

They've changed some metrics some, ok, but it really is in the experience
of nearly everybody still a mess. If you want to call it something else, ok,
but I don't see that things have gotten better except in a phony, temporary
sort of way.

"A full-on crash does not perpetuate the gross misallocation of resources. The government and lobbyists do not get to pick and choose winners and losers. "

By and large the same amoral scum pre-crash end up in the same positions post crash.

Atleast that was what happened in Thailand in the 90s and China post ww2, though post Communism obviously was a whole different ball of wax.  I have a feeling you'd be dismayed by who ended up in power post crash US.  Same financier group IMO unless we went total mad max.

BIDU?

lawyerliz wrote:

BIDU?

bidu.com

many of us have a pretty good idea of whats coming

but none of us knows for sure.... or exactly what

and that makes it all the more terrifying

like being in a cell in a dungeon

and we can hear down the hall the screams and the horror as people are dismembered

we dont know exactly what is being done but we know what it amounts to

and

the sounds come closer

halloween doth approach

noob goldberg wrote:

My words-per-minute decreases dramatically at that point.

You must have a colon 9000m long and a high-fibre diet to match to type that much...

noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 9:52 pm

Until I get really angry, at which point I commence flinging feces. My words-per-minute decreases dramatically at that point.

You must have sh!tty aim.

Like this isn't really hellfire because it's 14,900 degrees instead of
15,000?

Nitey nite.

Give up time. Bloodlust? You are nuts. Just want reality, thats it, thats all. Maybe your kind of fodder is here. I leave you to it.

lawyerliz wrote:

Like this isn't really hellfire because it's 14,900 degrees instead of 15,000?

Exactly. It's still awful warm.

Enjoy your evening, Liz. I'm heading to bed as well.

TJ, I'm sure you're well aware that unrealistic idealism isn't limited to diehard liberals. Your own reading of history should bear that out. Second, a "slow descent into hell" is a rather hyperbolic construction. Third, any comparison to the Romans, or any other empire, is totally bogus. We just have a difference of opinion as to how the recession should be handled, and so far I'm satisfied with the way things are going. You aren't. We aren't going to change each other's minds. I heard an interesting quote the other day, "We're all Keynesians in foxholes".

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

Are you sure "progression" is the word to use there?

It works. "Regression" may make sense here, but you are progressing to a simpler time, and regressing out of a more advanced time.

"I don't know what you need, but I doubt you'll find it here. There are certainly other forums that will cater to your bloodlust."

For a small yearly fee you too can go postal 24x7 at tickerforum.

Order now and you'll get for a free modified keyboard delivered to your doorstep.

One touch button for nuclear bomb icon.
Function keys have been modified: 

F1=bold
F2=double size font
F3=triple size font
F4 auto inserts "the us may be fled but china is fked worse"
F9 auto inserts "everything is going down hill because of them people"

albrt (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 9:57 pm

we've just lost most of the practical and social skills that we need to function as an advanced society or to adapt smoothly to a somewhat less advanced society.

The foundation has been pulled from under the social pyramid, turning it into a giant game of jenga. The descent to amorality is still in its early days, except for those advanced civilization folk NaRm is so fond of mentioning.

Blackhalo wrote:

Is it so wrong to want those who benefited the most from engineering the crisis to get some level of justice? I mean come on, Madoff and even Lay are such a small fry in comparison.

Not in the slightest. But would it boost the stature of CR to play judge and jury on the main page and entertain those types of theories?

We've all, at one time or another, lined up various players in this charade and convicted them of gross treason, or worse, in the comments. And that's the place for that type of analysis.

The main blog at CR is the place for rational analysis of the data at hand and neutral reporting of stories, IMHO.

poic wrote:

For a small yearly fee you too can go postal 24x7 at tickerforum.

That's it! We need a KD-izer! For people that need a little more drama and stress out of CR's posts, we can run it through an online KD-izer and present it in a way that more people may approve!!

Speaking of "stress", Asia is all today and the Yen is getting stronger... again

I appreciate the thoughts, Jonathan. I haven't had that type of reaction to a vaccine yet, and I'll look a bit more closely before we make an appointment for the kids.

Yeah, I'm not some crank. haha. This happened back in 97. And seriously, a spastic left arm for only certain movements. Kinda like that chick who can't walk forwards. I never pieced it together until recently. I had no reason to suspect the vaccinations, just never realized the weird stuff happened post a bunch of vaccinations.

Dunno, what is in the current flu meds, but read up on squalene. The reason it's there is to 'stimulate' the immune system into producing more antibodies for a smaller / cheaper amount of vaccine. They may be using something else, but that's roughly what adjuvant means.

My overall view is that screwing with the immune system may not be the wisest course, bearing in mind the massive swathe of auto-immune / nervous system disorders such as vasculitis, MS, rheumatoid arthritis etc. etc.

Good Luck. I wouldn't like to be making that decision for others right now.

TJ, I think the government is doing all it can to prevent social unrest, which is my main concern. I don't see how letting the economy crash could be anything but dangerous and destructive. You seem to imagine some glorious Phoenix rising from the ashes. I picture, rather, a long, drawn out struggle to regain anything resembling normalcy. I prefer the soft landing approach now underway. I think our chances of recovery are better this way. At least our social infrastructure remains intact.

I could care less about C4C, or FTHB, or even TARP, for that matter. I think ARRA, with its myriad programs, is a good thing. I wish it could be implemented faster, though. Jobs are priority one, imo, and I don't see private business picking up the slack. Getting health care insurance off the backs of business is a good thing, imo. I'm all for anything we can do to reduce our dependence on foreign oil, too.

Basel Too wrote:

They don't have faith, they've just never been foreclosed on. They are stupid and they are callous, and they don't mind it when people become disheartened. They don't even notice.

Interesting article. The demographics may be the "Its the economy stupid" of the 2010s.

barfly wrote:

TJ, I think the government is doing all it can to prevent social unrest, which is my main concern.

That and keep their 'elite friends' above the fray - safe. That is their real constituency. But the only way they keep the elites safe is to keep the rest of us unwashed barbarians from eating them. That is only done if bellies are full and roofs overhead for most of us.