“The overhang of impending foreclosures and the continued rise in unemployment rates will impact home prices negatively in the coming months,” New York-based Moody’s said.
Have they found the original notes and executed the assignments for all those impending foreclosures yet?
The cost of production is substantially below the present cash price so that the company will still make adequate profits even if the price of gold drops somewhat from the present price.
This doesn't make sense to me. They're paying (if I understand their hedge correctly) market prices to buy out their contracts. So if the price of gold stays completely flat (hypothetically), it's irrelevant right now whether or not they buy out their hedges or maintain them. It's exactly the same profit.
If they buy them out and the price goes up, their margin becomes the difference between what they bought their hedges out for, say $1030, and the new price. At $1050, they made $20. If the price goes down, they lose.
I completely agree that anyone hedging has to--first and foremost--lock in a price that exceeds their cost of production. Cost of production, for a commodity producer, is the most important profitability metric.
It just looks like a giant gamble, because I would have assume their previous hedges would have locked in their selling at a price exceeding cost of production (logically) and now they've removed that protection for a 50/50 shot at making more money (or losing a bunch of money) because they're completely exposed to price movements.
CR - is there any data out there yet on the additional losses being experienced caused by the delays imposed by the state foreclosure moratoriums and work-out requirements?
Darkness, darkness, be my zillow,
Take my price, and let me sleep.
In the coolness of your data,
In the silence of your deep.
Darkness, darkness, has me yearning,
For a price that cannot be.
Keep me my mind from constant turning,
Toward the deals it cannot see,
Deals it cannot see,
Deals it cannot see.
Darkness, darkness, long and lonesome,
Ease the day that brings the pain.
I have found the cliff of value,
I have known the depth of fear.
Darkness, darkness, be my blanket,
Cover me with endless night,
Take away the pain of knowing,
Fill my bankruptcy with light,
Bankruptcy with light,
Bankruptcy with light.
Darkness, darkness, be my zillow,
Take my deed, and let me sleep.
In the scorching of your desert,
In the silence of your deep.
Darkness, darkness, be my blanket,
Cover me with endless night,
Take away the pain of knowing,
Pack my car, and travel light,
Pack and travel light,
pack and travel light.
When the Fed is forced to raise rates the FB rush for the exits will be epic. The only reason defaults have been so low is because we've been skating through the reset/recast period at the same and lower payments.
Well, it took a double- to kill that fantastic last thread full of beans, Palestine, KD, scrap metal, gold-bugs, the theories of evolution and gravity, a spectacular ramp-job on the Street in the face of continued job losses, and a GDP print buoyed by over one trillion in new .gov spending.
TCA wrote:
Even Newton's Laws of Motion are still theories.
NO! Newtons "Laws" are laws, hence the name "Newtons Laws of Motion". Seriously guys; it isn't that hard
The firm will boost its loss projections by “significant” amounts for prime-jumbo, Alt-A, option adjustable-rate and subprime mortgages backing bonds issued between 2005 and 2008
Boy, I sure am glad Moody's is so far out ahead of the curve on this stuff.
Otherwise, you know, folks on the Street might have lost a lot of money investing in those RMBS.
Tune in next week when they downgrade Bear and Lehman due to an "uncertain profit outlook."
When the Fed is forced to raise rates the FB rush for the exits will be epic. The only reason defaults have been so low is because we've been skating through the reset/recast period at the same and lower payments.
It's a time-tested strategy better known as "hoping the economy runs out of cans before the Fed runs out of kickin' feet."
geez, those nutty folks at Moody's are talking like unemployment could be a leading indicator or something:
“The overhang of impending foreclosures and the continued rise in unemployment rates will impact home prices negatively in the coming months,” New York-based Moody’s said.
sm_landlord,
Great Youngbloods song. Album also has 'Ride the Wind'...and 'Quicksand'.
The kid across the street from us back in the early '70s claimed he'd been a door gunner across from a rhythm guitarist from the Youngbloods. I have no way to verify the veracity of his statement. He's dead now; he came back after shooting himself in the foot, and spent most of his remaining years incarcerated for various offenses.
Noob, I answered your comment on the previous thread.
Thanks for the comment, traderwalt, appreciated. I think we're both in the same place; I just didn't know if there was something that made hedging gold any different than hedging wheat, or corn. It appears the principles are pretty much the same, which helps my understanding of Barrick's decision.
Although I don't necessarily think I agree with it. It still seems to be a big gamble in my mind.
Seriously, a scientific "theory" is the highest level of achievement. It means that predictions have been made, tested, and independently verified. A "hypothesis" is of lesser standing. Calling something "just a theory" is the highest compliment.
Terry, I don't know what is causing the larger than expected losses. I'd think with the recent boost to prices that foreclosure losses would be less than expected.
American consumers are starting to focus on quality over quantity.
"If it comes down to a difference of 10 cents or less, she'll go for the name-brand item. But there are a few items her family simply won't give up, like Kellogg's Pop-Tarts.
"The off-brand is nothing like the real brand," she said."
C inco-X wrote:
Can you send me a link to "Darwin's Law of Evolution"?
No, because Darwin's, still standing, theory of evolution, is a hypothesis that explains the mechanics of the observed, fact of evolution.
Blackhalo,
This was precisely my point! I guess this means your understanding of the scientific method is no better than mine. LOL
Edit: BTW, evolution is either a hypothesis or a fact. In reality, the only "facts" we have are the fossil record, the results of scientific experiments in genetics, our understanding of the operation of DNA and such, etc. The one fact we still need is to see a species created as a result of the forces implied by the Theory of Evolution. Until then, it's a theory. It's really just not that hard to understand.
I don't know what is causing the larger than expected losses. I'd think with the recent boost to prices that foreclosure losses would be less than expected.
That might be the case if the homes stayed in good condition. If they are neglected or plundered, having them stay out of foreclosure longer will increase losses.
Any food afficiando knows the difference. Shame on your noob!
Shhhh! As far as my family is concerned, there is only one kind of bread, ketchup, pasta, ice cream, and spaghetti sauce. You go and start spoiling them, and there'll be hell to pay.
Will the Fed be forced to raise rates? Maybe we're trapped in a near-permanent low-rate environment because of the obvious pain from raising rates. I think high unemployment means we cannot raise rates for the foreseeable future. The long-term consequences are grim but I don't see the US taking the near-term punishment.
That might be the case if the homes stayed in good condition. If they are neglected or plundered, having them stay out of foreclosure longer will increase losses.
I just put up exactly one of those situations on my blog. The Bank owned is sad and they are clear about "as is." The second who is attempting a short sale shows pride of ownership. If it doesn't short sale it can expect a similar fate before it eventually changes hands.
You'll make us eat Wonder Bread with Kraft cheese-food slices?
According to my family, Wonder Bread is made with mouse droppings and kraft cheeze slices are made from broccoli. It's store brand all the way, in the noob house.
a new view that property prices won’t bottom until next year’s third quarter
Just another WAG. I remember an interview just about this time last year between maria and ken lewis. Lewis's prediction was for housing to start appreciating by H2 of this year.
Until the overhang gets addressed and jobs/income stabilize I don't see the point in making predictions.
According to my family, Wonder Bread is made with mouse droppings and kraft cheeze slices are made from broccoli. It's store brand all the way, in the noob house.
My kids will proudly tell you the bread at the outlet store with the black stripe price is the good stuff.
TCA wrote:
Newton's "Laws" of motion are approximations. Damn good ones, but still approximations.
Yep pretty good for most purposes, excepting the quantum or near-luminal... not something you come across everyday.
Actually, they're 100% correct until you approach the speed of light; they can be considered special cases of Einstein's theory.
My guess from late last year was March 2011, but with all the can kicking, the bottom could be pushed out further.
We've had multiple foreclosure moratoriums, multiple home tax credits, foot dragging by banks and the FDIC, accounting rule changes, etc. Could be a while before the market is allowed to correct.
Well, using this definition, I could argue that the theory of General Relativity is a law and not a theory because it can be succinctly stated with the Einstein Field Equations (if you can understand them) and has been proven correct in every single instance in which it has been tested (more so than Newton's Laws of Motion). But regardless of how accurate it is, it is still a theory. The distinction between theory and law is not so easy to make.
And anyway, your use of the word "theory" regarding evolution was to make the point that evolution had not been proven. Theories can be as accurate as laws, and in some cases, even more so.
I disagree. We can observe the facts of evolution in action, and the Theory of Evolution is there to explain it. Evolution happens, it is an observed fact.
For any interested, I added a plot to the update on (personal income - govt social benefit transfers) to normalize by making the year over year change a percent...so it is still pretty bad but with much better context! energyecon: Yep, its that bad
These three laws hold to a good approximation for macroscopic objects under everyday conditions. However, Newton's laws (combined with Universal Gravitation and Classical Electrodynamics) are inappropriate for use in certain circumstances, most notably at very small scales, very high speeds (in special relativity, the Lorentz factor must be included in the expression for momentum along with rest mass and velocity) or very strong gravitational fields. Therefore, the laws cannot be used to explain phenomena such as conduction of electricity in a semiconductor, optical properties of substances, errors in non-relativistically corrected GPS systems and superconductivity. Explanation of these phenomena requires more sophisticated physical theory, including General Relativity and Relativistic Quantum Mechanics.
1 currency now,
So you believe a 'global hard currency' would work and the Right-wing paranoia is unjustified. Is it only the Right who are questioning a global currency?
How much of a 'haircut' would national currencies take when a 'global hard currency' is introduced by a global monetary authority?
What is the downside to a One World Currency? Why would people be afraid of it? Or 'paranoid' of it if that is the case?
I disagree. We can observe the facts of evolution in action, and the Theory of Evolution is there to explain it. Evolution happens, it is an observed fact.
To kcoop: Can we get our word filter functionality? You can even just do a JS function to hide and give us the option to read it, but srsly, we need HCN to evolve where these discussions can be stopped after 2 or 3 threads.
I could argue that the theory of General Relativity is a law and not a theory because it can be succinctly stated with the Einstein Field Equations (if you can understand them) and has been proven correct in every single instance in which it has been tested (more so than Newton's Laws of Motion).
Plus, it does not explain motion very well at the Quantum level...
Too bad about the Swiss collider being on the fritz. I guess we'll have to wait a little longer for more data to come up with a Universal theory of motion...
I disagree. We can observe the facts of evolution in action, and the Theory of Evolution is there to explain it. Evolution happens, it is an observed fact.
You'll get added to the Republician "purge" list with satan inspired statements like that
~splat
TCA,
But the fact is there is a debate among hundreds of scientists and engineers about building collapses. The debate and related testing could have huge ramifications for insurance companies and whether workers would even want to work in a high rise building.
And anyway, your use of the word "theory" regarding evolution was to make the point that evolution had not been proven. Theories can be as accurate as laws, and in some cases, even more so.
Now that wasn't that hard, was it? You are correct about the difference between the two being difficult to discern, but as far as General Relativity goes, many of the effects that distinguish it from Newton's "Law" of Gravity only occur at or near the speed of light, and it's difficult to get things of any size up to those speeds, and as such, it's difficult (at this time nearly impossible) to actually verify these effects in experiments. Some have been. Time dilation was observed decades ago using airplanes and cesium clocks (or some form of atomic clock), and we've seen gravitational lenses in space. However, until we can accelerated a clock or some other measuring/recording device to a substantial fraction of the speed of light, we won't be able to truly confirm it and give it the status of a law. At least I think that the current hold up-
"“The Fed also happens to be exiting the Treasury market at a good time,” Goncalves added. “Other markets, such as equities, which performed well due to the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet are retreating and that will provide a backstop for the Treasury market.”"
There it is...long T's, short everything else. Not to mention the explicit statement that Fed has been propping equities.
Cinco-X wrote:
BTW, evolution is either a hypothesis or a fact.
I disagree. We can observe the facts of evolution in action, and the Theory of Evolution is there to explain it. Evolution happens, it is an observed fact.
The only "facts" are the fossil record, etc. Can you show me a "fact of evolution in action" please? That's not the same as natural selection, since natural selection has yet to produce a new species.
“The fourth quarter will be the Waterloo of the bears,” said E. William Stone, who oversees $102 billion as chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia. “We are in economic recovery both in the U.S. and globally, so you will eventually see revenue growth because you are seeing the recovery hold.”
yagij,
Zero Hedge has alternate threads for spin-off discussions. OT is a thread reality. Who defines if a topic OT is germaine or not? Just wondering how narrow a topic becomes before it's insulated from a larger perspective.
If you want to hear about one world government/global currency, check out Jesse's Café Américain and as I continue to read him, he gives conspiracy theory a highly respectable sound.
EnergyEcon:
Thanks for the superb chartwork. I'm forwarding your CDC chart to my wife, who's keenly sensitive to the Swine Flu situation. She tells me that if I get sick, I'll live in my van until I either recover or die trying. In the Murphy's Law department, my three kids got their swine flu misting on Tuesday afternoon. That night, I discovered that the son of the family with whom we ate on Sunday night had swine flu.
Jeezzz. All this Theory vs. Law debate is just to mask the "My deity is omnipotent" debate "and it (the deity) never told me about this Law so it must be a theory" nonsense.
AND, as it all boils down to “the people with real deities” vs. “the people with no deities” vs. “the people with slightly less-than real deities”, it's pointless to talk about Theories vs. Law (except for the fun of poke others, which is fun).
"CR - is there any data out there yet on the additional losses being experienced caused by the delays imposed by the state foreclosure moratoriums and work-out requirements?"
Every extra month delinquent adds about 0.5% - 1% to severity from foregone interest, expenses, etc., depending on interest rate, loan size, etc.
Figure the moratoriums have added 6-12 months to the foreclosure timeline, you get 3 - 12% extra severity.
OT topics will increase website traffic. When Roubini narrowed discussion parameters(like war funding is not an economic topic), it seemed his comment count went down. Same with Mish as his 'moderation' became more strict about wandering OT too far.
AND, as it all boils down to “the people with real deities” vs. “the people with no deities” vs. “the people with slightly less-than real deities”, it's pointless to talk about Theories vs. Law (except for the fun of poke others, which is fun).
natural selection has yet to produce a new species.
Speciation is just arbitrary semantics. Evolution is mutation and selection amongst a great enough population and/or over enough time. It is always incremental. Where you draw the line between species is subjective.
"In biology, evolution is change in the genetic material of a population of organisms from one generation to the next. Though changes produced in any one generation are normally small, differences accumulate with each generation and can, over time, cause substantial changes in the population, a process that can result in the emergence of new species.[1] The similarities among species suggest that all known species are descended from a common ancestor (or ancestral gene pool) through this process of gradual divergence."
noob-Shhhh! As far as my family is concerned, there is only one kind of bread, ketchup, pasta, ice cream, and spaghetti sauce. You go and start spoiling them, and there'll be hell to pay.
you need to tell your kid to man up, drink some budweiser and like it.
Anyone who doubts that evolution is a suitable accurate description of reality should not be using modern antibiotics.
There are plenty of books describing evolution. But FIRST, you've got to get past the internal deity not knowing about the concept. The brain of a believer (in deities or ism's) will filter the information to match the existing stories in the brain.
interesting, though i'm guessing October is a low expense month or something to that effect. Thirty seven more years of this, and we'll have the national debt paid off.
total national debt as of:
10/01/2009: 11,920,519,164,319.42
10/28/2009: 11,893,668,881,089.01
"Corporate bonds yield 5.9 percent on average, down from 10.3 percent in March, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. index data. Borrowers have sold $1.11 trillion in U.S. corporate bonds in 2009, the fastest pace on record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg."
Dat true...so far. But he also talked about BoA writeoffs complete by Q1-09 based on housing so I don't think he was expecting any depreciation after H2.
I disagree. We can observe the facts of evolution in action, and the Theory of Evolution is there to explain it. Evolution happens, it is an observed fact.
The theory of evolution is also based on the 'theory' that the earth is more than 6000 years old. Intelligent Design, now that is scientific law. /snark
TCA,
See you can have a discussion about scientific theory without getting angry,,,
Yes, but not about skyscrapers catching on fire and collapsing at free fall speed suddenly disproving centuries of scientific experiment...
TCA,
Nothing was disproven by the events of 9/11 at the WTC. It's just that no one ever looked at the effect of a plane loaded with enough fuel to fly across the country hitting it. A minor oversight.
AIG Draw on Fed Line Reaches Five-Month High After ILFC Loan
By Hugh Son and Susanna Ray
Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc.’s draw from a Federal Reserve credit line rose to the highest in five months after the insurer had to prop up its airplane- leasing unit with a $2 billion loan.
AIG owes $44.8 billion on the line, about $6 billion more than at the end of September, according to Federal Reserve data released today. The insurer extended the credit to International Lease Finance Corp. to help repay the unit’s obligations under a five-year line with banks that expired this month, the plane business said in a filing Oct. 19. AIG Fed Debt Rises to Five-Month High on Commercial Paper, ILFC - Bloomberg.com
Cinco-X wrote:
natural selection has yet to produce a new species.
Speciation is just arbitrary semantics. Evolution is mutation and selection amongst a great enough population and/or over enough time. It is always incremental. Where you draw the line between species is subjective.
Charles Darwin's On the Origin of Species, published on Thursday 24 November 1859, is a seminal work of scientific literature considered to be the foundation of evolutionary biology.
Quite - the historic storyline would seem to fit the bulls as the French - a formerly triumphant conqueror, who had been crushed, breaks out on goes on a rampage only to be broken decisively at Waterloo...
'Evolution of H5N1 Influenza Viruses...'
Evolution in a lab...
'Inactivated influenza vaccines are manufactured from reassortant viruses...'
'These candidate vaccine strains...were generated by a reverse genetic approach...'
So the ten year price has gone down about by about 15% since Fed T purchases started but prices of corporates doubled in the same time frame? Something doesn't compute.
TCA,
Nothing was disproven by the events of 9/11 at the WTC. It's just that no one ever looked at the effect of a plane loaded with enough fuel to fly across the country hitting it. A minor oversight.
Dude, this thread is already so far off-topic (unless the More in the title is a catch-all). I refuse to even go there.
As long as we are going off topic, how about some news on our failing state and municipal governments. For all those who believe in the FDIC, SS, Medicare trust funds, I offer you this news from NYS.
A new report by NY state comptroller Thomas DiNapoli entitled "Highway Robbery: State's ailing road and bridges robbed; State siphoned money to pay for operations and debt service" tells you all you need to know about just how prosperous the ailing economy really is. According to DiNapoli, "only one-third of the money in the Highway and Bridge Trust Fund has actually been used to pay for highways and bridges. The rest has been siphoned off to pay for debt service on back-door borrowing and to fund operational costs for the DMV and the state Department of Transportation."
I love when folks talk about "shoring up" the SS trust funds. That cash has already been spent of bike trails, food stamps, aircraft carriers and office furniture.
I love when folks talk about "shoring up" the SS trust funds. That cash has already been spent of bike trails, food stamps, aircraft carriers and office furniture.
Won't it work the other way when we rob Paul to pay Peter?
“It’s a tug-of-war,” said Michael Binger, a Minneapolis- based fund manager at Thrivent Asset Management, which oversees about $60 billion. “We’ve had a stronger-than-expected GDP number and corporations are running more efficiently. But I don’t see the government reversing the stimulus measures or the Fed changing language or indicating higher interest rates any time soon. The unemployment rate is still very high.”
Looking at the chart from earlier today, showing income - gov subsidy, leads me to believe that the GDP numbers are a bunch of hooey. I wonder how the GDP numbers stack up, if one only looks at unsubsidized industries. Not to mention the fact that while GDP is up the dollar is down and a rising GDP is often a side effect of a falling dollar. I suspect that if Japan, China and Euro decide to maintain/restore parity next quarter, that it is not the Bears who will be on the wrong side of Waterloo.
"I guess we'll have to wait a little longer for more data to come up with a Universal theory of motion..."
Data just sit there. It is the mysterious human mind that constructs systems and finds confirming patterns in the data, then generates predictions to confirm the systems.
q? can we stop comparing this to the great depression crash? the market is up over 55% since March and it shows no serious signs of slowing down. we'll have to restart the comparison at the next crash.
Highway Robbery: State’s Ailing Roads & Bridges Robbed of 65 Percent of Highway & Bridge Trust Fund Money
That's an old California trick. First the gasoline tax was for highways, then for "transportation", then for whatever the pols need money for at the moment.
My guess is accounting tricks to avoid exceeding the debt ceiling. Although, according to Naked Capitalism, it doesn't matter because money is a construct of the government, so governments can never go broke (or something).
"Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve increased its estimated value of investment portfolios acquired in the rescue of American International Group Inc., reversing potential losses to taxpayers.
The net holdings of three corporations set up by the Fed for the mortgages and securities it took on in bailing out AIG and Bear Stearns Cos. rose by $4.35 billion, or 7.1 percent, to $65.5 billion, the Fed said today in a quarterly revaluation of the assets. The Bear Stearns investments fell by $116 million to $26.3 billion, while the two AIG portfolios gained $4.46 billion to $39.2 billion, the central bank said.
Loans and interest due to the Fed on the deals totaled $65.1 billion, the Fed said. "
"My guess is accounting tricks to avoid exceeding the debt ceiling. Although, according to Naked Capitalism, it doesn't matter because money is a construct of the government, so governments can never go broke (or something)."
From what I hear the USG has the former head of the Zimbwabe Central Bank on retainer.
Although, according to Naked Capitalism, it doesn't matter because money is a construct of the government, so governments can never go broke (or something).
It was, governments can't default. If the debt is created in their own currency.
That's an old California trick. First the gasoline tax was for highways, then for "transportation", then for whatever the pols need money for at the moment.
The cycle of government, next they need to raise the tax to pay for the failing roads, and the increase will again be "dedicated". I remember when the lottery was supposed to only be for education.
"Highway Robbery: State's ailing road and bridges robbed; State siphoned money to pay for operations and debt service" tells you all you need to know about just how prosperous the ailing economy really is. According to DiNapoli, "only one-third of the money in the Highway and Bridge Trust Fund has actually been used to pay for highways and bridges. The rest has been siphoned off to pay for debt service on back-door borrowing and to fund operational costs for the DMV and the state Department of Transportation."
From the quote you supply, it would seem that the money hasn't even been spent on non-highway/rr infrastructure, like bike trails, but on paying interest & operating costs. Or that NYC's been doing what many people in the US have been doing--using what income they have to service debt & so have less $$ available to save or pay for durable goods or repairing & maintaining themselves (preventive medical & dental care,education for kids or adults) or what they already own.
For NYC, that's unfortunately often business as usual. When I lived there, some of the bridges were in such bad shape after years of neglect, that forced closure was threatened. I was told that all the buildings of Queens College-CUNY (now owned by SUNY) were assessed at $0 in the late 70's, so the city could stop doing maintenance. Students & faculty were still using them though.
Hard to believe there aren't plenty of other cities in the US that have played the same game. My impression is that many people in the US got some kind of amnesia or something about the need for maintenance of infrastructure during the 50's--when the US built so much stuff: national highway system, schools, more & more skyscrapers, huge suburbs . . .. It was as if we'd always be building new, so there was never going to be a need to repair anything and since you can't see sewers, etc, then how could people realize they need maintenance, repair & replacement? Maybe it was an always present trend that just became dominant--some US history I've read suggested that people in the US regarded land differently then people in France, England & Italy did, it was just a source of capital here--so you could exhaust land in the south by growing cotton or rice, and just move on, and that's what some people did. Oh, does this neighborhood seem to be getting tawdry & old? Oh, well, I'll just move further out to that nice new neighborhood w/the new mall . . ..
That's an old California trick. First the gasoline tax was for highways, then for "transportation", then for whatever the pols need money for at the moment.
Dawg-win's Rule Violation: Any failed position supported by reference to the failed state of California is automatically considered FAIL. Since California is synonymous with FAIL, any position of failure supported by using California as an example is cyclical by its very nature.
Aren't people selling/leasing toll roads to private companies? Works for me (I avoid toll roads)
Mayor Daley leased the skyway, In 2005, Chicago agreed to lease the 7.8-mile Chicago Skyway to MIG-Cintra for $1.8 billion. **Goldman Sachs **advised the city on the 99-year lease agreement.
Mitch Daniel's outdid Daley and handed over Indiana Toll Road system. a $3.8 billion lease of the Indiana Toll Road to a private, Spanish/Australian consortium which would assume all costs and revenues for 75 years. **Goldman Sachs **was Indiana's financial adviser on the deal.
Money missing?
'On Sept. 10, (2001) Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld declared war. Not on terrorists, 'the adversay's closer to home...'
CBS News 2002 link cited above
Dawg-win's Rule Violation: Any failed position supported by reference to the failed state of California is automatically considered FAIL. Since California is synonymous with FAIL, any position of failure supported by using California as an example is cyclical by its very nature.
I'm a little confused, but I think I get it, except for the cyclical part. Apologies for violating Dawgwin's rule. There must be a lot of those violations, though
My impression is that many people in the US got some kind of amnesia or something about the need for maintenance of infrastructure during the 50's
Most government funded transportation infrastructure in the US was built for purposes OTHER THAN simply moving stuff around. Usually it was built at the direction of lobbyists for the benefit of private interests (shockingly): land development needs road & dams, airlines need airports & traffic-control, ships/barges needs waterways & dams. Once the infrastructure was in place, the lobbying efforts generally moved to other project or capacity improvements in-place. The beneficiaries of the transportation infrastructure are generally like renters, they don't care about maintenance as long as it doesn't fall down completely. Owners would probably care, if they thought the company that owned the infrastructure needed it to survive into the future.
Hard to believe there aren't plenty of other cities in the US that have played the same game. My impression is that many people in the US got some kind of amnesia or something about the need for maintenance of infrastructure during the 50's...
Perhaps part of the problem was just that. With so much new stuff, the maintenance part of the infrastructure, is such a long way off people forget about it and it is tomorrow's problem. So, you end up with a maintenance infrastructure bubble, that the public having gotten used to the maintenance free living, want to put off even longer. Perhaps building derivative ponzi schemes instead. If true, China should be in for one heck of a bust, 40 years from now...
I'm a little confused, but I think I get it, except for the cyclical part. Apologies for violating Dawgwin's rule. There must be a lot of those violations, though
It's still in the drafting phase in committee. However its complicated and verbose nature seems apt when compared to the subject at hand.
What is the downside to a One World Currency? Why would people be afraid of it? Or 'paranoid' of it if that is the case?
First of all Homedad, 1 world currency has nothing to do with one world government. My model open-source currency would be 100% optional and have zero capacity to interfere with any local government taxing or confiscating power. Talk to another revolutionary for that.
The downside is that cheaters/currency printers/deadbeats/ponzis/money changers/pigmen/arbitrageurs would no longer prosper.
This will bankrupt many FIRE people who sincerely thought they were making an honest living or fortune by adding value. Millions of people will be wiped out financially, but the net gain to the world's billions of people from a reliable store and measure of purchasing power will be immeasurable.
The reason there is one US currency and not 50, and one Euro, a Forex, a Comex, etc. is the invisible hand working its timeless magic to force transaction costs to approach zero.
You're confused because "cyclical" should have been "circular".
Circular reasoning should be an Economic crime punishable by a reduction in your Pundit Credibility Index Rating, to be established concurrently with the hard money index.
NEW YORK (AP) -- MetLife Inc. on Thursday reported a loss for the third quarter, driven by $1.4 billion in investment losses.
**
The investment losses were primarily related to complex **investments known as derivatives, which are used to hedge a number of risks, including changes in interest rates and foreign currencies. Excluding derivatives, net realized investment losses actually declined 24 percent from the second quarter (better than expected I guess).
for those of you who did not see them earlier here are my writeups for the day:
GDP came in at a stronger than expected 3.5% for the 3Q, first I look at the growth rates for the different parts of GDP
Initial claims were basically flat, falling by just 1000, but continuing claims plunged by 148,000. The big question is which door aree people leaving the room through, the lady or the tiger. Extended claims also fell by 71,000
The market loved the GDP news and the Dow gained almost 200 points. I do have some serious questions about the sustainability of the growth, as inventory rebuild added 0.94 of the gowth points and consumer spending on Durable goods added 1.47 points. That was greatly helped by the Cash for clunkers program and that will not be repeated in the 4Q
Circular reasoning should be an Economic crime punishable by having a reduction in your Pundit Credibility Index Rating
Okay, Dawg-win's Rule shall affect your PCIR rating, and it should be circular, not cyclical. Either way, use of CA to support FAIL is redundant because CA is FAIL and doesn't add any data or insight to your comment.
Okay, Dawg-win's Rule shall affect your PCIR rating, and it should be circular, not cyclical. Either way, use of CA to support FAIL is redundant because CA is FAIL and doesn't add any data or insight to your comment.
OK, so you and Yogi will be making the necessary additions to the Glossary for these new terms?
Iowa Republicans wince at Palin fee
Jonathan Martin – Thu Oct 29, 6:06 am ET
A conservative Iowa group’s effort to lure Sarah Palin to its banquet next month has had an unintended effect: Rather than exciting conservatives about the prospect of a visit from the former Alaska governor, the group’s plan to raise a six-figure sum to bring her to the state has GOP activists recoiling at the thought of paying to land a politician's speaking appearance. Iowa Republicans wince at Palin fee - Yahoo! News
The reason NYS bridges are in such poor shape is because tolls are diverted to transit subsidies. This isn't even a secret. NYCTA actually lists bridge tolls as "farebox revenue" for the purposes of qualifying their transit operations for Federal matching funds.
Yes indeed. The National Highway Defense Program. Almost put the freight railroads out of business. And did completely kill off the short-distance privately owned passenger train. Biggest mistake the railroad industry made was not allowing themselves to go bankrupts and setting up a scam to offload their rail infrastructure to the government. The railroad management actually believed in free-enterprise, and couldn't comprehend the future when faced with reality in the 50's. Dumbasses.
Pwnzi, I said almost the exact same thing to my cousin yesterday, whose gambling money I manage. Dick Fuld seemed to be surprised when he said he was playing "whack-a-mole", and even more surprised when he became the mole.
The failure of the too-big will be epic, but everyone's exposure is unique. Buildings don't collapse when the title-holders implode.
Then I look at the contributions each part of GDP had to the overall growth rate
Inventory investment is the "worst" type of GDP growth, since large increases in one quarter are usually reversed in the next quarter -- or in this case, large declines being reversed upwards.
Just out of curiosity, how is this growth any worse than flipping houses?
The reason NYS bridges are in such poor shape is because tolls are diverted to transit subsidies. This isn't even a secret. NYCTA actually lists bridge tolls as "farebox revenue" for the purposes of qualifying their transit operations for Federal matching funds.
Same as Golden Gate transit is subsidized from the Bay bridge tool fees. It's all one big happy socialist pot of loot now.
Biggest mistake the railroad industry made was not allowing themselves to go bankrupts and setting up a scam to offload their rail infrastructure to the government.
The pundit index acronym will be improved, in classic Talmudic style, but OK.
The open-source currency, like all currencies, is only backed by the honesty and reliability of the users in the aggregate. But the data and algorithm are shared by hundreds of millions of global users, like Mozilla. Or you can throw your lot in with Ben, Jacques, the G-8, the G-20,...
They tried to make it up to the railroads with the Peacekeeper program. It seems that a small number were deployed, but not nearly enough to save the railroads.
That was just small potatoes. The entire military thing was a scam on the part of the land development interests and the trucking industry. Free-enterprise and transportation have completely never existed. It could be claimed that from 1910 - 1945 the US railroads were the best privately run (ie for real profit) transportation entities that ever existed. They owned everything from track to vehicles. They owned California and many other states too.
The Golden Gate Bridge, Highway and Transportation District (District) operates the Golden Gate Bridge, Golden Gate Transit and Golden Ferry with just four funding sources: bridge tolls, transit fares, government grants, and advertising/concessions. Transit fare increases assist the District in meeting operating expenses, which assists the District in to continuing provide its public transit services.
If 1/3 of the residential construction growth in the GDP report was due to realtor fees what again was the problem with Bush Junior trying to have burger flipping jobs counted as production jobs?
making the necessary additions to the Glossary for these new terms?
Dawg-win's Rule:
The state of California is synonymous with FAIL, and any example between FAIL and California is automatic FAIL for the commenter due to circular reasoning. Such a contribution does not add any real data or insight to the stated position. See FAIL.
Dirk van Dijk wrote:
Then I look at the contributions each part of GDP had to the overall growth rate
Inventory investment is the "worst" type of GDP growth, since large increases in one quarter are usually reversed in the next quarter -- or in this case, large declines being reversed upwards.
Cinco, good point, although flipping existing houses really doesnt add that much to measured GDP growth, New housing is historically a powerful driver of the economy, but not used houses
Just out of curiosity, how is this growth any worse than flipping houses?
The reason why Barrick bought out their hedges is because the market appetite for gold stocks is huge right now. They raised more money than needed to buy out the hedges if I remember.
Quit giving those Hawkeye Rednecks crap - they aren't 'cheap' they are just 'thrifty'... and used to having pol's like Palin come and talk & talk & talk for :::FREE::: ... at every Quik Trip and grain elevator from Decorah to Red Oak... for only say 18-20 months every four years. They've been conditioned.
Can we get an update on the CIT situation? They tanked today in the midst of the crazy rally.
Two things I saw in press - they got a $4.5 billion loan from their creditors, and the unofficial word is that their swap offer failed. So they got a transfusion but they are still hemmoraging with a bunch of bonds coming due next week.
boost to prices? I know CS does not count distressed sales. I did not think OFHEO did either as they just built off what Case and Shiller proposed in their 1989 paper
For all we know, price birfucation increased due to banks selecting lower offers from those with cash in hand
right?
The Golden Gate Bridge, Highway and Transportation District (District) operates the Golden Gate Bridge, Golden Gate Transit and Golden Ferry with just four funding sources: bridge tolls, transit fares, government grants, and advertising/concessions.
Thanks. i collect the most egregious examples. This one is up there with Dallas counting carpool lane occupants as ridership.
Breaking News from YLSP
While perusing the Congressional Record yesterday I noticed that Senator Thune and Senator Bennet are attempting to kill the TARP extension through an amendment to the unemployment bill. Anyone who looks through yesterdays Congressional Record can see the interchange on TARP between Thune, Bennett as well as Dodd. The amendment would be short, only 4 lines.
I suggest the blogosphere take note and put pressure on Reid and Thune and other Democratic Senators (the Rs have already said they want to end the TARP and I think its the Ds who need persuasion). When I have more time I'll post further information. Additionally a number of interesting things were said by Dodd regarding TARP.
Senators originally wanted to limit the bill to $250B. They noted it was only possible to spend ~ $50B per month.
Bennett who suggested that Congress approve in $50B increments.
Paulsen said that he needed $700B for a big headline; $250B or $350B would not be enough to make Wall St. happy.
Dodd has 500 pages of notes taken during the crafting of the TARP legislation. I doubt he would share, but I find it interesting.
Additionally its clear that the use of TARP funds for car companies, AIG and otherwise may not square with Congressional intent (that seems to be the R position).
There may be more, I didn't read the interchange closely other than this.
There would be 10 more D's needed to block a potential filibuster. The 39 (or is it 38?) R's and Thune are onboard. I think Senator Byrd and some other D's may have been against the legislation to start with.
So far I've yet to see anyone mention Senators may be voting on ending TARP. I suggest we all attempt to pressure Congress to take up this cause and end it. Obviously this won't affect the money already spent. Additionally, I think it might solve some of the "debt ceiling" issues re: FDIC and DIF fund issues that Bair is having... and her ability to borrow money from Treasury (which she'll deny).
Shame that no one else has picked up on this story; am I the only person who pays attention to the Congressional Record? Or would the ending of TARP spell some bad joojoo on Wall Street?
dryfly wrote:
used to having pol's like Palin come and talk & talk & talk for :::FREE:::
Is even she resigned to cashing in on her celebrity, rather than parlaying it into a WH run? Perhaps a future reality show is more fitting.
I posted a link a few days ago; her book has dropped in price to about $5. That didn't take long
Shame that no one else has picked up on this story; am I the only person who pays attention to the Congressional Record? Or would the ending of TARP spell some bad joojoo on Wall Street?
Didn't Nanoo-Nanoo post something from it this morning? You two could form a reading club....
Cinco-X wrote:
I posted a link a few days ago; her book has dropped in price to about $5. That didn't take long
Needed more pictures - and plastic wrap - would have sold just fine.
Maybe if she had a "members only" website! She a pretty hot cougar. Actually prettier than Tina Fey, who I've always found attractive-
pwnzi-
'...insurance companies...have the same problem...namely insolvency.'
Thus the importance of some kind of 'bailout' healthcare plan for insurance companies and/or the 'public option' to keep the medical industry solvent in a major downturn or Crash.
The current toll on the Golden gate bridge is $6.00. That to drive your car the 1.7 miles across.
If it was "free" traffic would be backed-up to Santa Rosa every morning. In 1976 there was actually open land along 101 in marin county. The problem with transportation is getting people to pay for the incremental costs. When the GG bridge was built there were commuter trains in Marin (privately owned, that goofy free-enterprise thing, with private ferries to SF). When the bay-bridge was built there was private (for profit) commuter trains in Oakland and the east-bay. The socialist bridges put all that out of business. Now, we're all socialists. The law of unintended consequences applies to everybody.
Nobody wants the socialist camel’s nose under the great free-enterprise tent, unless they are benefiting from it.
I posted a link a few days ago; her book has dropped in price to about $5.
Wow! Talk about missing your target audience, by a mile. She should have gone on Beck and Rush and spent a little time with them off-air talking business methods. Instead she's doing Oprah?
Regarding the question on food stamps - gee, isn't it always like this - the answer is not only no, but hell no!
in 2009 = 1:9 =11%
in 2006 = 1:11=9%
in 2000 = 1:16= 6%
2006 and 2009 not that different. How about 2001-2002, when we were in a recession? 2000 was then very end of the "longest peacetime expansion" since WWII, and not long after welfare reform, so it's probably not very representative. As DF said, '82 would be interesting too-
Wow! Talk about missing your target audience, by a mile. She should have gone on Beck and Rush and spent a little time with them off-air talking business methods. Instead she's doing Oprah?
Cinco-X,
I read all the threads from this back to the GDP and the overnight thread. I didn't see anyone else comment.
mock turtle linked to a naked capitalism commentary called something like "Permanent TARP".
If I'm incorrect than someone can correct me and point out where anyone else in any news organization (aside from Congressional Record) has pointed out that Senators want to attach a kill TARP amendment to the UE benefits.
I seem to recall Congress halving Paulson's original ransom note for $1,500 BB, letting the bastard grumble 'I told you it wasn't enough' when they come for more.
YLSP,
How would Congressional 'ending of TARP' jive with admin's new 'systemic' plan which could 'institutionalize' bailouts giving Treasury more authority?
Unfortunately like a talk-show-radio caller I'm going to have to read whatever comments follow off the air.
The discussion can be found in the October 28, Senate Congressional Record under this item:
15 . UNEMPLOYMENT COMPENSATION EXTENSION ACT OF 2009--MOTION TO PROCEED -- (Senate - October 28, 2009)
Senators want to attach a kill TARP amendment to the UE benefits.
What and kill the administrations working slush fund, and be in accordance with the Constitutions separation of powers? That seems a tad too sensible to be coming out of Congress...
poic (profile) wrote on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 5:17 pm
Talk about a beans'n'bunkers echo chamber now.
Wait until they have to start eating the beans. That thunder you're hearing isn't ... well, not exactly.
Beaners in a bunker should be limited to one person (with maybe a dog or two). And the emissions should be burned off 'frat style' to keep the air safe.
"Now if paying members were the only ones who could read it - THAT would be progress. "
Sigh... try as I might I STILL get suckered into going on there and pushing for things like
a balanced discussion on issues
perhaps both sides might be to blame for the pickle that China/US are currently in (VERY bad to suggest this one particularly)
there's a difference between joking and race-baiting
You know minor things like that.
.....
Standard "libtard" claptrap as far as they are concerned.
Mr. President, it has been a little over a year since a group of us met in the Foreign Relations Committee room headed by the distinguished Senator from Connecticut, Mr. Dodd, to talk about the financial crisis we were facing and how we would deal with that. We came out of that meeting, held a press conference where we sounded perhaps more optimistic than we should have at the time about having a solution to that problem. And out of that has come now a name that is well known throughout the country called TARP. We did not call it that at the time.
But we talked it through in a completely bipartisan and substantive way and voted for the rescue package that came out of that discussion. I voted for that package. I voted for the original disbursement of TARP. I stand by that vote a year later. It was the right vote, the right situation, the right time, and the right thing to do.
But I will share now some of the thoughts that went into my participation in that particular meeting and some of the things that came out of it. In anticipation of the meeting, I called some people whose judgment I trust and discussed this. I was told Treasury cannot physically push $700 billion out the door. You cannot sign that many contracts. That is far too much money.
The suggestion I made was: Why don't we give them $50 billion, because I was told that is the most they could spend in any one month. Why don't we give them $50 billion for 5 months or $250 billion and see how it works before we buy into the $700 billion number that Secretary Paulson was talking about.
No, Secretary Paulson let us know he had to have $700 billion as the headline. He could not calm down the markets, the international markets, unless he had a number that big. We talked it over in that room and came up with this solution, which I think was a good one. We would give them a $700 billion headline, because we authorized $700 billion, but we actually only gave him $350 billion and said he would have to come back to the Congress for the second 350.
Also in that group--and it was not by any means my suggestion or anyone else's suggestion--it was overwhelmingly the consensus: We have to put some controls in here. We have a congressional oversight committee that we created. We have to create an inspector general. I remember one of the members of the group saying: I do not trust any Treasury Secretary, no matter how bright he is, with $700 billion and absolutely no reporting or transparency or control situation.
One of the things that was discussed and that I thought was put in the bill was that when the money starts to come back--because, understand, TARP was not a bailout program in the sense that we gave money to people never to recover anything. It was a program where we were acquiring things, either acquiring collateral or acquiring stock. When the money starts to come back, it will be used to pay down the national debt. If we are going to expend $700 billion to stabilize the system, when the $700 billion comes back, it goes to reduce the debt that was created when it went out. That was my understanding of the agreement we made.
Well, I voted for the TARP and I voted for the first $350 billion. After we came to the second tranche, the second $350 billion, listening to the inspector general and listening to what the congressional oversight committee had to say, and looking at how well the first $350 billion had worked in stabilizing the situation and getting us past the panic we were facing, I voted against the second $350 billion because I was afraid it would turn into somewhat of a bailout fund that could be used for things other than acquiring assets that could be liquidated and bring money back to the Treasury. That is indeed what has happened, because much of the money went for things very different than that which we were talking about in that room that morning.
The amendment I will offer to the bill, when we get on the bill, will be to sunset TARP at the end of this year. This is where we are. Treasury is sitting on about $370 billion in the TARP fund right now. The recession certainly is not over and the challenge in our economy is still there with tremendous force. But the crisis we were facing when we had that meeting is over, and Treasury, to deal with that kind of a crisis, no longer needs that money.
The fear I have is that Treasury is starting to recycle the money and it is not going to pay down the national debt. It has become something of a slush fund to say: All right, if we have a circumstance here where we wish to spend some money, we cannot get it from the Congress, let's take it out of the TARP.
If there is a situation over here where we think it might be helpful, and we cannot get the Congress to support us, let's take it out of the TARP. The temptation, sitting on $370 billion, to spend that money, is overwhelming.
When Secretary Geithner came before the Banking Committee or the Joint Economic Committee--I am sorry, I cannot, with my memory right now, put the exact committee to it--the question arose about repaying the national debt rather than recycling the money. He said the lawyers from the Treasury Department had looked at the act of Congress, and they made it clear we in the Congress had made it clear the money could be recycled, it could be relent, it could go out again. That came as a great surprise to me because I thought the conversation we had in that room, as the bill was being written, made it clear the money had to go to pay down the national debt. But I am not in a position to sue the Treasury and argue with their lawyers, and even if we did over the actual meaning of what was in the bill, it would take so many years to adjudicate there is no point in it.
I really love the point about suing Treasury over the meaning over the bill.
Your analysis of "private" versus "socialist" large transportation projects, such as even the smallest "private" commuter train line, suffers from the semantic thought-terminating false dichotomy.
Find me a "private" train line that paid all of its noise, injury, pollution, environmental beauty and infinite other external costs before it paid bonuses and dividends.
"How would Congressional 'ending of TARP' jive with admin's new 'systemic' plan which could 'institutionalize' bailouts giving Treasury more authority?"
If a TARP falls in the forest and no-ones around did it really fall?
Cinco-X,
I read all the threads from this back to the GDP and the overnight thread. I didn't see anyone else comment.
I thought someone did this morning in regards to some house bill. Maybe it was you? There was some discussion about whether something was extended, and CR said it turns out it wasn't, and then there was a link and a particular HR bill mentioned, but I couldn't find that bill when I searched the page. This was the home page to which they linked: THOMAS (Library of Congress)
Find me a "private" train line that paid all of its noise, injury, pollution, environmental beauty and infinite other external costs before it paid bonuses and dividends.
Jeezz. I would never claim it did. I'm not a liberal or a socialist, so I'm just comparing them to the same standard that would be used for most transportation "project" in the US.
JimPortlandOR (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 5:37 pm
Beaners in a bunker should be limited to one person (with maybe a dog or two). And the emissions should be burned off 'frat style' to keep the air safe.
I'd reconsider the dogs, personally... I loved my childhood pet, a cocker spaniel, dearly, but she had canine 'emissions' that would bring tears to your eyes -- even in our big, open living room with vaulted ceilings.
Dawg, should the major areas of CA be included in Dawg-win's Rule?
In all seriousness I don't like the rule. The C State is like a sixth of the US by many measures. This board is infested with its residents. Our ever patient host is even from the place that shall not be named. So much of what happens elsewhere happens there first or twice as large. If it can pull out of its death spiral we can learn from it.
If we just take away the food stamps, cash for clunkers, transit subsidies, unemployment benefits, free school lunches, and free flu vaccines, joe sixpack would be incentivized to get his lazy ass back to work making those luxury jets and yachts for the masters of the universe.
We might need a one-time $3000 billion stimulus to jump-start everything, payable directly to banker talent. But then total capitalist libertarian chaos, we promise.
We might need a one-time $3000 billion stimulus to jump-start everything, payable directly to banker talent. But then total capitalist libertarian chaos, we promise.
We might need a one-time $3000 billion stimulus to jump-start everything, payable directly to . But then total capitalist libertarian chaos, we promise.
"I'd reconsider the dogs, personally... I loved my childhood pet, a cocker spaniel, dearly, but she had canine 'emissions' that would bring tears to your eyes -- even in our big, open living room with vaulted ceilings."
Cats beat dogs on that metric hands down. I've had the unfortunate pleasure of comparing that type of emission from both animals.
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 5:43 pm
So much of what happens elsewhere happens there first or twice as large. If it can pull out of its death spiral we can learn from it.
I can't see Cali not becoming a mirror of a third-world state, emptying out the middle class almost entirely, leaving the extremely wealthy, the merely rich, the social-parasite remnants of the middle class now living off UE, food stamps, subsidized housing and other entitlements and the truly destitute, plus a bunch of illegals. The failed state model, basically, writ large, is what I'd bet on if I were a betting outsider.
Don't misunderstand me, I'm for clawing back TARP I 100% at libor + GLD adjustment to nominal dollars, with sharper claws than Barofsky seems to be using.
Public option for public banking. Gambling legal, but no bailout.
I had two Lab puppies years ago, and the neighbor cat loved to taunt them. The cat started coming over the fence to crap in my yard, and the pups were intimidated from 6 weeks old until about 6 months.
Well, the tide changed: The pups turned into dogs, and that cat never came over the fence again.
I can't see Cali not becoming a mirror of a third-world state, emptying out the middle class almost entirely, leaving the extremely wealthy, the merely rich, the social-parasite remnants of the middle class now living off UE, food stamps, subsidized housing and other entitlements and the truly destitute, plus a bunch of illegals. The failed state model, basically, writ large, is what I'd bet on if I were a betting outsider.
There's still an awful lot of talent (human capital) in the middle class in CA. If they pack up and move away, then all bets are off..........
RIF
Still, I bet I can find 30mn Chinese who would be willing to jump on the ships their government is building as obscene make-work projects for the voyage to California.
Besides, it looks like things might be so far gone that the system in Cali purges itself. That would be good news, because the marker of failed states are not the problems but the ways in which they stubbornly persist
I can't see Cali not becoming a mirror of a third-world state, emptying out the middle class almost entirely,
I'd bet that the middle class departees would be from bay area and LA/SD. The central valley and inland empire middies will be there until there are sand dunes like Namibia, and maybe after.
dryfly
1982 peaked at 9.7% (22mn / 231mn)
today it's at 11.1% (35mn / 304mn), it's record breaking
edit: updated figures using energyecon's precise numbers
My knee jerk response was at first that maybe the criteria with which you get approved for FS might be more lax now than then... but I doubt it. I bet it has to do with the wider distribution of pain now than then. In the 80s a lot of the West & SE basically skated through while Rust Belt & Farm States got crushed.
Granted back then the SE & West was less populated than the RB, NE & even Farm States. But after a couple decades of migration... the West & SE have a lot more people and the Rust Belt & Farm States a lot less... so even though it isn't as bad in Rust Belt as it was in '82 - even for Detroit - there is nowhere in the US sans No Dak that isn't feeling it.
'Beans 'n' bunkers' mentality comes and goes following monetary policies...
The 1980's -
Savings & Loan fiasco...Over 1000 savings and loans failed from 'junk bonds' and monetary expansion...books by Harry Browne on deflation and 'How To Survive' were popular in earlier recent downturns...and Browne always said the Big One was coming again...survivalism has been a recurrent theme...
Noob, they now have Kirkland store-brand beer at Costco. I have a case in the closet on hand for emergencies but have not tried it yet. A variety pack no less. Homedad have you?
Cinco-X (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 5:53 pm
There's still an awful lot of talent (human capital) in the middle class in CA. If they pack up and move away, then all bets are off..........
Yes, exactly, and a goodly number of them are young and fairly mobile. Not that the state won't have a "service" economy to make sure the remaining folks get their fillet mignons, lattes, and Big Macs, and their garbage hauled away, but there will be a much smaller demand, thus a lot fewer employed, and most of the lower- to middle-class wage earners will simply stop working or go cash-basis underground as the combination of oppressive taxes and rising benefits eventually balance out what they would make in their regular jobs.
f they pack up and move away, then all bets are off..........
Nobody is going anywhere.
The US is no worse run than Italy. CaLi is like Greece. People live here for the same reason they do Italy and Greece. Good weather, good food, good wine.
The US is moving into happy socialist land now. It will never change or become more "free-enterprise". The peasants don't want it, the nobility doesn't want it. Italy has been around for a long time, stumbling around, getting by.
Good enough for the Italians, it's good enough for the Mericans. The ONLY thing that can unbalance a country, long-term, is over-population. We're no where near as populated as India yet.
JimPortlandOR (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 6:01 pm
splat wrote:
Where can they move to ? Another failing state ?
Hey, North Dakota is doing great!
Its neighbor to the south has a thriving FIRE sector which is now a large part of SD's economy. Riding the real estate, finance/insurance and health care bubbles, and saying "it's different here".
As a young Californian, I've never seriously considered moving out of the state until this year. I've actually lived in other parts of the country, but moved back here because I prefer it. Now watching this whole mess unfold I've started entertaining the idea of moving. The question is where. If I can figure out a way to finance it, an international move would be tempting.
picosec
The thing with GDP is that they got inventory all wrong. It added 0.9% to GDP, it should have subtracted over 1.5%. Blame it on the seasonal pattern for production/inventory depletion being completely inadequate for describing this year's wild swings.
For that matter, they understated GDP growth by overstating the price of imports.
This GDP report should have heavy revisions. more of my comments @
Not sure how young, and this topic has been covered before, but if you can stomach leaving your family move to New Zealand. It's THE last under-populated, un-spoiled, place on the planet with a western-style government, and honest cops and decent weather (plus good wine). If you don't leave today, you will kick yourself for the rest of your life. The US is doomed (as a democracy).
Double
!
process be evolving?! 
.
Could the
So, Moody's is predicting further market decline? That is a contrary indicator, if there was ever one.
Poor Cramer with his swing and a miss on his call for a decline coming in the market.
One of the best fades out there right now.
Have they found the original notes and executed the assignments for all those impending foreclosures yet?
traderwalt wrote:
This doesn't make sense to me. They're paying (if I understand their hedge correctly) market prices to buy out their contracts. So if the price of gold stays completely flat (hypothetically), it's irrelevant right now whether or not they buy out their hedges or maintain them. It's exactly the same profit.
If they buy them out and the price goes up, their margin becomes the difference between what they bought their hedges out for, say $1030, and the new price. At $1050, they made $20. If the price goes down, they lose.
I completely agree that anyone hedging has to--first and foremost--lock in a price that exceeds their cost of production. Cost of production, for a commodity producer, is the most important profitability metric.
It just looks like a giant gamble, because I would have assume their previous hedges would have locked in their selling at a price exceeding cost of production (logically) and now they've removed that protection for a 50/50 shot at making more money (or losing a bunch of money) because they're completely exposed to price movements.
CR - is there any data out there yet on the additional losses being experienced caused by the delays imposed by the state foreclosure moratoriums and work-out requirements?
Poor Cramer with his swing and a miss on his call for a decline coming in the market.
He's not alone. Today hurt. Ouch!
With apologies to Jessie Colin Young:
Darkness, darkness, be my zillow,
Take my price, and let me sleep.
In the coolness of your data,
In the silence of your deep.
Darkness, darkness, has me yearning,
For a price that cannot be.
Keep me my mind from constant turning,
Toward the deals it cannot see,
Deals it cannot see,
Deals it cannot see.
Darkness, darkness, long and lonesome,
Ease the day that brings the pain.
I have found the cliff of value,
I have known the depth of fear.
Darkness, darkness, be my blanket,
Cover me with endless night,
Take away the pain of knowing,
Fill my bankruptcy with light,
Bankruptcy with light,
Bankruptcy with light.
Darkness, darkness, be my zillow,
Take my deed, and let me sleep.
In the scorching of your desert,
In the silence of your deep.
Darkness, darkness, be my blanket,
Cover me with endless night,
Take away the pain of knowing,
Pack my car, and travel light,
Pack and travel light,
pack and travel light.
When the Fed is forced to raise rates the FB rush for the exits will be epic. The only reason defaults have been so low is because we've been skating through the reset/recast period at the same and lower payments.
Further house price declines...and in other news, admin plan to limit Fed (but give Treasury complete power). Bait and switch.
Well, it took a double-
to kill that fantastic last thread full of beans, Palestine, KD, scrap metal, gold-bugs, the theories of evolution and gravity, a spectacular ramp-job on the Street in the face of continued job losses, and a GDP print buoyed by over one trillion in new .gov spending.
I'm surprised we didn't get three-
ed.
poic wrote:
He's playing baseball? I thought he was doing some sort of avant guard interpretive dance...
" Poor Cramer with his swing and a miss on his call for a decline coming in the market.
He's not alone. Today hurt. Ouch! "
Atleast you're not make you're crap calls on TV again and again replete with bozo hats, buzzers and various other PT and Barnum paraphenelia.
TCA wrote:
Even Newton's Laws of Motion are still theories.
NO! Newtons "Laws" are laws, hence the name "Newtons Laws of Motion". Seriously guys; it isn't that hard
Comment by Cinco-X from thread 'NMHC Quarterly Apartment Survey: Occupancy Continues to Decline, but Pace Slows'
sm_landlord,
Great Youngbloods song. Album also has 'Ride the Wind'...and 'Quicksand'.
The firm will boost its loss projections by “significant” amounts for prime-jumbo, Alt-A, option adjustable-rate and subprime mortgages backing bonds issued between 2005 and 2008
Boy, I sure am glad Moody's is so far out ahead of the curve on this stuff.
Otherwise, you know, folks on the Street might have lost a lot of money investing in those RMBS.
Tune in next week when they downgrade Bear and Lehman due to an "uncertain profit outlook."
When the Fed is forced to raise rates the FB rush for the exits will be epic. The only reason defaults have been so low is because we've been skating through the reset/recast period at the same and lower payments.
It's a time-tested strategy better known as "hoping the economy runs out of cans before the Fed runs out of kickin' feet."
geez, those nutty folks at Moody's are talking like unemployment could be a leading indicator or something:
Noob, I answered your comment on the previous thread.
So when exactly does a theory become a law?
Newton's "Laws" of motion are approximations. Damn good ones, but still approximations.
merchants of fear wrote:
The kid across the street from us back in the early '70s claimed he'd been a door gunner across from a rhythm guitarist from the Youngbloods. I have no way to verify the veracity of his statement. He's dead now; he came back after shooting himself in the foot, and spent most of his remaining years incarcerated for various offenses.
"geez, those nutty folks at Moody's are talking like unemployment could be a leading indicator or something:"
Impossible. Kudblow personally told me between puffs on the mustard seed gong we were sharing that unemployment is a trailing indicator.
TCA wrote:
At the same time a person becomes an "expert"
TCA wrote:
When the Bureau of Law and Theory Department says so.
TCA wrote:
It is what it is....
traderwalt wrote:
Thanks for the comment, traderwalt, appreciated. I think we're both in the same place; I just didn't know if there was something that made hedging gold any different than hedging wheat, or corn. It appears the principles are pretty much the same, which helps my understanding of Barrick's decision.
Although I don't necessarily think I agree with it. It still seems to be a big gamble in my mind.
The double pig is just a theory.
Seriously, a scientific "theory" is the highest level of achievement. It means that predictions have been made, tested, and independently verified. A "hypothesis" is of lesser standing. Calling something "just a theory" is the highest compliment.
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 3:23 pm
TCA wrote:
So when exactly does a theory become a law?
When the Bureau of Law and Theory Department says so.
But what if they are just another damned lobbyist group?
Terry, I don't know what is causing the larger than expected losses. I'd think with the recent boost to prices that foreclosure losses would be less than expected.
best to all
American consumers are starting to focus on quality over quantity.
"If it comes down to a difference of 10 cents or less, she'll go for the name-brand item. But there are a few items her family simply won't give up, like Kellogg's Pop-Tarts.
"The off-brand is nothing like the real brand," she said."
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Not all lobbyist organizations are Satanic Babblers.
Just ours.
poic wrote:
Just wait until the choice is toast, or toast.
Blackhalo wrote:
Blackhalo,
This was precisely my point! I guess this means your understanding of the scientific method is no better than mine. LOL
Edit: BTW, evolution is either a hypothesis or a fact. In reality, the only "facts" we have are the fossil record, the results of scientific experiments in genetics, our understanding of the operation of DNA and such, etc. The one fact we still need is to see a species created as a result of the forces implied by the Theory of Evolution. Until then, it's a theory. It's really just not that hard to understand.
" poic wrote:
"The off-brand is nothing like the real brand," she said."
Just wait until the choice is toast, or toast. "
There's toast and then there's Wonder bread (the upper echelon).
Any food afficiando knows the difference. Shame on your noob!
CalculatedRisk wrote:
That might be the case if the homes stayed in good condition. If they are neglected or plundered, having them stay out of foreclosure longer will increase losses.
poic wrote:
Shhhh! As far as my family is concerned, there is only one kind of bread, ketchup, pasta, ice cream, and spaghetti sauce. You go and start spoiling them, and there'll be hell to pay.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
I haven't been tracking - did the price boost just impact the lowest end of the market, or did it "trickle up" to the mcmansion level?
noob goldberg wrote:
Very nice... I would laugh, if my mom did not think he was genius and investing on his every word.
noob goldberg wrote:
You'll make us eat Wonder Bread with Kraft cheese-food slices?
Will the Fed be forced to raise rates? Maybe we're trapped in a near-permanent low-rate environment because of the obvious pain from raising rates. I think high unemployment means we cannot raise rates for the foreseeable future. The long-term consequences are grim but I don't see the US taking the near-term punishment.
TCA wrote:
Yep pretty good for most purposes, excepting the quantum or near-luminal... not something you come across everyday.
some investor guy wrote:
I just put up exactly one of those situations on my blog. The Bank owned is sad and they are clear about "as is." The second who is attempting a short sale shows pride of ownership. If it doesn't short sale it can expect a similar fate before it eventually changes hands.
Third quarter of 2010 eh? The folks at Moody's must be uber-smart.
yagij wrote:
According to my family, Wonder Bread is made with mouse droppings and kraft cheeze slices are made from broccoli. It's store brand all the way, in the noob house.
a new view that property prices won’t bottom until next year’s third quarter
Just another WAG. I remember an interview just about this time last year between maria and ken lewis. Lewis's prediction was for housing to start appreciating by H2 of this year.
Until the overhang gets addressed and jobs/income stabilize I don't see the point in making predictions.
noob goldberg wrote:
My kids will proudly tell you the bread at the outlet store with the black stripe price is the good stuff.
Blackhalo wrote:
Actually, they're 100% correct until you approach the speed of light; they can be considered special cases of Einstein's theory.
buzzsaw99 wrote:
My guess from late last year was March 2011, but with all the can kicking, the bottom could be pushed out further.
We've had multiple foreclosure moratoriums, multiple home tax credits, foot dragging by banks and the FDIC, accounting rule changes, etc. Could be a while before the market is allowed to correct.
Well, using this definition, I could argue that the theory of General Relativity is a law and not a theory because it can be succinctly stated with the Einstein Field Equations (if you can understand them) and has been proven correct in every single instance in which it has been tested (more so than Newton's Laws of Motion). But regardless of how accurate it is, it is still a theory. The distinction between theory and law is not so easy to make.
And anyway, your use of the word "theory" regarding evolution was to make the point that evolution had not been proven. Theories can be as accurate as laws, and in some cases, even more so.
TCA,
See you can have a discussion about scientific theory without getting angry,,,
Cinco-X wrote:
I disagree. We can observe the facts of evolution in action, and the Theory of Evolution is there to explain it. Evolution happens, it is an observed fact.
For any interested, I added a plot to the update on (personal income - govt social benefit transfers) to normalize by making the year over year change a percent...so it is still pretty bad but with much better context!
energyecon: Yep, its that bad
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newton's_laws_of_motion
I thought he was a TV clown without the makeup and funny nose ! You mean people take his financial advice ???
~splat
TCA,
See you can have a discussion about scientific theory without getting angry,,,
Yes, but not about skyscrapers catching on fire and collapsing at free fall speed suddenly disproving centuries of scientific experiment...
Lewis's prediction was for housing to start appreciating by H2 of this year.
Which it did.
If you look at the right numbers.
1 currency now,
So you believe a 'global hard currency' would work and the Right-wing paranoia is unjustified. Is it only the Right who are questioning a global currency?
How much of a 'haircut' would national currencies take when a 'global hard currency' is introduced by a global monetary authority?
What is the downside to a One World Currency? Why would people be afraid of it? Or 'paranoid' of it if that is the case?
You mean people take his financial advice ???
You can play the Don't Pass.
Blackhalo wrote:
To kcoop: Can we get our word filter functionality? You can even just do a JS function to hide and give us the option to read it, but srsly, we need HCN to evolve where these discussions can be stopped after 2 or 3 threads.
You can always buy the made-in-china brand fortified with real mecury and 7 other heavy metals.
~splat
TCA wrote:
You should learn to keep a more open mind, TCA. Scientists aren't as smart as they think they are.
EDIT:
TCA wrote:
Plus, it does not explain motion very well at the Quantum level...
Too bad about the Swiss collider being on the fritz. I guess we'll have to wait a little longer for more data to come up with a Universal theory of motion...
TCA,
But the fact is there is a debate among hundreds of scientists and engineers about building collapses. The debate and related testing could have huge ramifications for insurance companies and whether workers would even want to work in a high rise building.
TCA wrote:
Now that wasn't that hard, was it? You are correct about the difference between the two being difficult to discern, but as far as General Relativity goes, many of the effects that distinguish it from Newton's "Law" of Gravity only occur at or near the speed of light, and it's difficult to get things of any size up to those speeds, and as such, it's difficult (at this time nearly impossible) to actually verify these effects in experiments. Some have been. Time dilation was observed decades ago using airplanes and cesium clocks (or some form of atomic clock), and we've seen gravitational lenses in space. However, until we can accelerated a clock or some other measuring/recording device to a substantial fraction of the speed of light, we won't be able to truly confirm it and give it the status of a law. At least I think that the current hold up-
So I'm guessing the "buy now or be priced out forever" mantra has lost a bit of steam.
You can play the Don't Pass.
I thought about it, but the pit boss bore a remarkable resemblance to a
and his tentacles kept knocking over my chips.
I'm pretty sure he was palming a few of them in the process, too.
From the Bloomberg piece CR linked:
"“The Fed also happens to be exiting the Treasury market at a good time,” Goncalves added. “Other markets, such as equities, which performed well due to the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet are retreating and that will provide a backstop for the Treasury market.”"
There it is...long T's, short everything else. Not to mention the explicit statement that Fed has been propping equities.
Blackhalo wrote:
The only "facts" are the fossil record, etc. Can you show me a "fact of evolution in action" please? That's not the same as natural selection, since natural selection has yet to produce a new species.
Is he talking about ABBA?
“The fourth quarter will be the Waterloo of the bears,” said E. William Stone, who oversees $102 billion as chief investment strategist at PNC Wealth Management in Philadelphia. “We are in economic recovery both in the U.S. and globally, so you will eventually see revenue growth because you are seeing the recovery hold.”
Someone earlier was asking about Paul Tudor Jones and
Here is his third-quarter letter: Tudor Third-Quarter Letter
And some discussion:
FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » Paul Tudor Jones ♥ gold
Seeing Next Boom, Tudor Goes for Gold - DealBook Blog - NYTimes.com
nova wrote:
You ass, that'll be in my head for the rest of the night!
yagij,
Zero Hedge has alternate threads for spin-off discussions. OT is a thread reality. Who defines if a topic OT is germaine or not? Just wondering how narrow a topic becomes before it's insulated from a larger perspective.
You ass, that'll be in my head for the rest of the night!
Man, the echo must be awesome in there
Merchants of Fear:
If you want to hear about one world government/global currency, check out Jesse's Café Américain and as I continue to read him, he gives conspiracy theory a highly respectable sound.
EnergyEcon:
Thanks for the superb chartwork. I'm forwarding your CDC chart to my wife, who's keenly sensitive to the Swine Flu situation. She tells me that if I get sick, I'll live in my van until I either recover or die trying. In the Murphy's Law department, my three kids got their swine flu misting on Tuesday afternoon. That night, I discovered that the son of the family with whom we ate on Sunday night had swine flu.
Gotta love it.
Anybody who thinks the Fed is through purchasing Ts deserve the consequences of that particular worldview.
Treasury Dept mantra: "Buy all you want. We can always make more."
Jeezzz. All this Theory vs. Law debate is just to mask the "My deity is omnipotent" debate "and it (the deity) never told me about this Law so it must be a theory" nonsense.
AND, as it all boils down to “the people with real deities” vs. “the people with no deities” vs. “the people with slightly less-than real deities”, it's pointless to talk about Theories vs. Law (except for the fun of poke others, which is fun).
nova wrote:
For years I've been balling up tissues and jamming them up my nose and in my ears to address that precise concern.
Cinco-X wrote:
Anyone who doubts that evolution is a suitable accurate description of reality should not be using modern antibiotics.
noob,
I use shaving cream. Just jam the end into a nostril and press. Plus, your head will smell good for days
"CR - is there any data out there yet on the additional losses being experienced caused by the delays imposed by the state foreclosure moratoriums and work-out requirements?"
Every extra month delinquent adds about 0.5% - 1% to severity from foregone interest, expenses, etc., depending on interest rate, loan size, etc.
Figure the moratoriums have added 6-12 months to the foreclosure timeline, you get 3 - 12% extra severity.
Rough figures, but you get the picture.
OT topics will increase website traffic. When Roubini narrowed discussion parameters(like war funding is not an economic topic), it seemed his comment count went down. Same with Mish as his 'moderation' became more strict about wandering OT too far.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Now, is that something Ron Paul would have said?
homedad43,
Ask her about this from the latest (until tomorrow) CDC FluView report -
the whole report
CDC - Seasonal Influenza (Flu) - Weekly Report: Influenza Summary Update
and this cumulative hospitalizations per 10,000 segmented by age groups
EIP Influenza Laboratory-Confirmed Cumulative Hospitalization Rates, 2009-10 and Previous 3 Seasons
Okay, who's lining up for their
?
Zenith 42 in. (Diagonal) Class 720p 600Hz Plasma HD Television ENERGY STAR®
Sear's version of Chrysler's "K" car.
Thx Homedad,
I'll check it out...
“The fourth quarter will be the Waterloo of the bears"
Oh, I'm fully expecting it to be.
But then again, I'm of English descent.
Cinco-X wrote:
Speciation is just arbitrary semantics. Evolution is mutation and selection amongst a great enough population and/or over enough time. It is always incremental. Where you draw the line between species is subjective.
"In biology, evolution is change in the genetic material of a population of organisms from one generation to the next. Though changes produced in any one generation are normally small, differences accumulate with each generation and can, over time, cause substantial changes in the population, a process that can result in the emergence of new species.[1] The similarities among species suggest that all known species are descended from a common ancestor (or ancestral gene pool) through this process of gradual divergence."
Evolution - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
you need to tell your kid to man up, drink some budweiser and like it.
"Can you show me a "fact of evolution in action" please? "
Me selling my SRS.
JP wrote:
There are plenty of books describing evolution. But FIRST, you've got to get past the internal deity not knowing about the concept. The brain of a believer (in deities or ism's) will filter the information to match the existing stories in the brain.
Here is a pointless link: Amazon.com: Your Inner Fish: A Journey into the 3.5-Billion-Year History of the Human Body (9780375424472): Neil Shubin: Books
you need to tell your kid to man up, drink some budweiser and like it.
Bud Lite for the under 5 crowd please
interesting, though i'm guessing October is a low expense month or something to that effect. Thirty seven more years of this, and we'll have the national debt paid off.
total national debt as of:
10/01/2009: 11,920,519,164,319.42
10/28/2009: 11,893,668,881,089.01
Debt to the Penny (Daily History Search Application)
Mook wrote:
Is Waterloo of the Bears a good or bad thing for bears?
JP wrote:
Then we would really get to see evolution in action...
Also,
"Corporate bonds yield 5.9 percent on average, down from 10.3 percent in March, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. index data. Borrowers have sold $1.11 trillion in U.S. corporate bonds in 2009, the fastest pace on record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg."
That is one big pile of mispriced...something. .
If you look at the right numbers.
Dat true...so far. But he also talked about BoA writeoffs complete by Q1-09 based on housing so I don't think he was expecting any depreciation after H2.
Uncle Ar wrote:
What, name-brand beer? Have you not heard a word I've said?
Okay,
, really gotta run now.
The theory of evolution is also based on the 'theory' that the earth is more than 6000 years old. Intelligent Design, now that is scientific law. /snark
rosethorn wrote:
Just like the outcome of the Battle of Waterloo it depends on which side you are on.
Basel Too wrote:
No wonder they are going to extend FTHB and UE Insurance! They discovered there was some change hiding in the budgetary couch.
TCA wrote:
TCA,
Nothing was disproven by the events of 9/11 at the WTC. It's just that no one ever looked at the effect of a plane loaded with enough fuel to fly across the country hitting it. A minor oversight.
For anyone else who wants to buff up their recall on the Battle of Waterloo:
Battle of Waterloo - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
energyecon wrote:
I just want to know who the bears are?
AIG Draw on Fed Line Reaches Five-Month High After ILFC Loan
By Hugh Son and Susanna Ray
Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc.’s draw from a Federal Reserve credit line rose to the highest in five months after the insurer had to prop up its airplane- leasing unit with a $2 billion loan.
AIG owes $44.8 billion on the line, about $6 billion more than at the end of September, according to Federal Reserve data released today. The insurer extended the credit to International Lease Finance Corp. to help repay the unit’s obligations under a five-year line with banks that expired this month, the plane business said in a filing Oct. 19.
AIG Fed Debt Rises to Five-Month High on Commercial Paper, ILFC - Bloomberg.com
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
I am confused in this analogy too. Who plays the French, the Bulls or the Bears?
Cinco-X wrote:
Depends what stories are already up there in the brain tho.
Blackhalo wrote:
On the Origin of Species
C'mon! It's not that hard.
Excerpt:
Blackhalo wrote:
The tax payer
Blackhalo,
Quite - the historic storyline would seem to fit the bulls as the French - a formerly triumphant conqueror, who had been crushed, breaks out on goes on a rampage only to be broken decisively at Waterloo...
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 3:58 pm
I use shaving cream. Just jam the end into a nostril and press. Plus, your head will smell good for days
Would this make my nose smell better, or just make it smell better?
'Evolution of H5N1 Influenza Viruses...'
Evolution in a lab...
'Inactivated influenza vaccines are manufactured from reassortant viruses...'
'These candidate vaccine strains...were generated by a reverse genetic approach...'
So the ten year price has gone down about by about 15% since Fed T purchases started but prices of corporates doubled in the same time frame? Something doesn't compute.
TCA,
Nothing was disproven by the events of 9/11 at the WTC. It's just that no one ever looked at the effect of a plane loaded with enough fuel to fly across the country hitting it. A minor oversight.
Dude, this thread is already so far off-topic (unless the More in the title is a catch-all). I refuse to even go there.
rosethorn wrote:
Stop thinking so hard. Why don't you try some of Benny Bucko's
? It will take the edge off.
As long as we are going off topic, how about some news on our failing state and municipal governments. For all those who believe in the FDIC, SS, Medicare trust funds, I offer you this news from NYS.
A new report by NY state comptroller Thomas DiNapoli entitled "Highway Robbery: State's ailing road and bridges robbed; State siphoned money to pay for operations and debt service" tells you all you need to know about just how prosperous the ailing economy really is. According to DiNapoli, "only one-third of the money in the Highway and Bridge Trust Fund has actually been used to pay for highways and bridges. The rest has been siphoned off to pay for debt service on back-door borrowing and to fund operational costs for the DMV and the state Department of Transportation."
Highway Robbery: State’s Ailing Roads & Bridges Robbed of 65 Percent of Highway & Bridge Trust Fund Money
I love when folks talk about "shoring up" the SS trust funds. That cash has already been spent of bike trails, food stamps, aircraft carriers and office furniture.
Nuke wrote:
Won't it work the other way when we rob Paul to pay Peter?
link to above
Lab viruses...are created in labs from existing viruses...
http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/512017_3
medscape Today article on Avian flu viruses
Looking at the chart from earlier today, showing income - gov subsidy, leads me to believe that the GDP numbers are a bunch of hooey. I wonder how the GDP numbers stack up, if one only looks at unsubsidized industries. Not to mention the fact that while GDP is up the dollar is down and a rising GDP is often a side effect of a falling dollar. I suspect that if Japan, China and Euro decide to maintain/restore parity next quarter, that it is not the Bears who will be on the wrong side of Waterloo.
yagij:
It depends on the resale value of a slightly used interstate.
"I guess we'll have to wait a little longer for more data to come up with a Universal theory of motion..."
Data just sit there. It is the mysterious human mind that constructs systems and finds confirming patterns in the data, then generates predictions to confirm the systems.
Now, is that something Ron Paul would have said?
Sounds more like Rumsfeld and his "known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns."
Wtc dust need to be tested...answers may be there.
I zillowed my old home. It's still holding steady when compared to martian rocks.
Nuke wrote:
Aren't people selling/leasing toll roads to private companies? Works for me (I avoid toll roads)
q? can we stop comparing this to the great depression crash? the market is up over 55% since March and it shows no serious signs of slowing down. we'll have to restart the comparison at the next crash.
Speculation is fun for blogs though.
Nuke wrote:
That's an old California trick. First the gasoline tax was for highways, then for "transportation", then for whatever the pols need money for at the moment.
Basel Too wrote:
how in the hell did THAT happen?
Rocky:
My guess is accounting tricks to avoid exceeding the debt ceiling. Although, according to Naked Capitalism, it doesn't matter because money is a construct of the government, so governments can never go broke (or something).
Rocky perhaps something to do with this?
"Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve increased its estimated value of investment portfolios acquired in the rescue of American International Group Inc., reversing potential losses to taxpayers.
The net holdings of three corporations set up by the Fed for the mortgages and securities it took on in bailing out AIG and Bear Stearns Cos. rose by $4.35 billion, or 7.1 percent, to $65.5 billion, the Fed said today in a quarterly revaluation of the assets. The Bear Stearns investments fell by $116 million to $26.3 billion, while the two AIG portfolios gained $4.46 billion to $39.2 billion, the central bank said.
Loans and interest due to the Fed on the deals totaled $65.1 billion, the Fed said. "
Rumsfeld wanted to know where $2 trillion went. The unknown.
"My guess is accounting tricks to avoid exceeding the debt ceiling. Although, according to Naked Capitalism, it doesn't matter because money is a construct of the government, so governments can never go broke (or something)."
From what I hear the USG has the former head of the Zimbwabe Central Bank on retainer.
The Full Story Of How Tim Geithner Secretly Bailed Out Wall Street And Screwed The Taxpayer Last Fall
yagij wrote:
They will eventually get you boxed in...
Not hooey, so much as akin to booking debt as revenue (govt borrowings spent as stimulus)
poic wrote:
It was, governments can't default. If the debt is created in their own currency.
energyecon wrote:
Yes, this is also my concern.
Blackhalo wrote:
I'm in a state that doesn't have any toll roads. They will have to sell other things first.
"It was, governments can't default. If the debt is created in their own currency."
You call it tomatoe, I call it tomato.
sm_landlord wrote:
The cycle of government, next they need to raise the tax to pay for the failing roads, and the increase will again be "dedicated". I remember when the lottery was supposed to only be for education.
Can we get an update on the CIT situation? They tanked today in the midst of the crazy rally.
'The War On Waste'
The War On Waste - CBS Evening News - CBS News
Nuke wrote:
From the quote you supply, it would seem that the money hasn't even been spent on non-highway/rr infrastructure, like bike trails, but on paying interest & operating costs. Or that NYC's been doing what many people in the US have been doing--using what income they have to service debt & so have less $$ available to save or pay for durable goods or repairing & maintaining themselves (preventive medical & dental care,education for kids or adults) or what they already own.
For NYC, that's unfortunately often business as usual. When I lived there, some of the bridges were in such bad shape after years of neglect, that forced closure was threatened. I was told that all the buildings of Queens College-CUNY (now owned by SUNY) were assessed at $0 in the late 70's, so the city could stop doing maintenance. Students & faculty were still using them though.
Hard to believe there aren't plenty of other cities in the US that have played the same game. My impression is that many people in the US got some kind of amnesia or something about the need for maintenance of infrastructure during the 50's--when the US built so much stuff: national highway system, schools, more & more skyscrapers, huge suburbs . . .. It was as if we'd always be building new, so there was never going to be a need to repair anything and since you can't see sewers, etc, then how could people realize they need maintenance, repair & replacement? Maybe it was an always present trend that just became dominant--some US history I've read suggested that people in the US regarded land differently then people in France, England & Italy did, it was just a source of capital here--so you could exhaust land in the south by growing cotton or rice, and just move on, and that's what some people did. Oh, does this neighborhood seem to be getting tawdry & old? Oh, well, I'll just move further out to that nice new neighborhood w/the new mall . . ..
sm_landlord wrote:
Dawg-win's Rule Violation: Any failed position supported by reference to the failed state of California is automatically considered FAIL. Since California is synonymous with FAIL, any position of failure supported by using California as an example is cyclical by its very nature.
yagij wrote:
Mayor Daley leased the skyway, In 2005, Chicago agreed to lease the 7.8-mile Chicago Skyway to MIG-Cintra for $1.8 billion. **Goldman Sachs **advised the city on the 99-year lease agreement.
Mitch Daniel's outdid Daley and handed over Indiana Toll Road system. a $3.8 billion lease of the Indiana Toll Road to a private, Spanish/Australian consortium which would assume all costs and revenues for 75 years. **Goldman Sachs **was Indiana's financial adviser on the deal.
Money missing?
'On Sept. 10, (2001) Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld declared war. Not on terrorists, 'the adversay's closer to home...'
CBS News 2002
link cited above
Only if the bears are playing to role of Lord Wellington, it was a pretty good battle for him.
~splat
What's a trillion here and a trillion there?
" Is Waterloo of the Bears a good or bad thing for bears?
Only if the bears are playing to role of Lord Wellington, it was a pretty good battle for him.
~splat "
Hmm, Beef Wellington. I never here anyone liking Bear Wellington?
Is there a connection there? Or am I just on acid.
Less and less when you monetize your way out of debt...
~splat
yagij wrote:
I'm a little confused, but I think I get it, except for the cyclical part. Apologies for violating Dawgwin's rule. There must be a lot of those violations, though
Meanwhile: Lawmakers Find A Way To Outfox 4-Year Old Tax Cheats - Dealbreaker - A Wall Street Tabloid - Business News Headlines and Financial Gossip
I think you mean a tautology, no?
azurite wrote:
Most government funded transportation infrastructure in the US was built for purposes OTHER THAN simply moving stuff around. Usually it was built at the direction of lobbyists for the benefit of private interests (shockingly): land development needs road & dams, airlines need airports & traffic-control, ships/barges needs waterways & dams. Once the infrastructure was in place, the lobbying efforts generally moved to other project or capacity improvements in-place. The beneficiaries of the transportation infrastructure are generally like renters, they don't care about maintenance as long as it doesn't fall down completely. Owners would probably care, if they thought the company that owned the infrastructure needed it to survive into the future.
azurite wrote:
Perhaps part of the problem was just that. With so much new stuff, the maintenance part of the infrastructure, is such a long way off people forget about it and it is tomorrow's problem. So, you end up with a maintenance infrastructure bubble, that the public having gotten used to the maintenance free living, want to put off even longer. Perhaps building derivative ponzi schemes instead. If true, China should be in for one heck of a bust, 40 years from now...
sm_landlord wrote:
It's still in the drafting phase in committee. However its complicated and verbose nature seems apt when compared to the subject at hand.
First of all Homedad, 1 world currency has nothing to do with one world government. My model open-source currency would be 100% optional and have zero capacity to interfere with any local government taxing or confiscating power. Talk to another revolutionary for that.
The downside is that cheaters/currency printers/deadbeats/ponzis/money changers/pigmen/arbitrageurs would no longer prosper.
This will bankrupt many FIRE people who sincerely thought they were making an honest living or fortune by adding value. Millions of people will be wiped out financially, but the net gain to the world's billions of people from a reliable store and measure of purchasing power will be immeasurable.
The reason there is one US currency and not 50, and one Euro, a Forex, a Comex, etc. is the invisible hand working its timeless magic to force transaction costs to approach zero.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Possibly little-known factoid: Some of the national highways were built where and how they were for the purpose of deploying mobile ICBMs.
Also, in funding budgets, M&O is just not sexy like pouring concrete to build new stuff that can have someone's name hung on it...
merchants of fear wrote:
Pretty soon you be talking about some real money...?
You're confused because "cyclical" should have been "circular".
Circular reasoning should be an Economic crime punishable by a reduction in your Pundit Credibility Index Rating, to be established concurrently with the hard money index.
NEW YORK (AP) -- MetLife Inc. on Thursday reported a loss for the third quarter, driven by $1.4 billion in investment losses.
**
The investment losses were primarily related to complex **investments known as derivatives, which are used to hedge a number of risks, including changes in interest rates and foreign currencies. Excluding derivatives, net realized investment losses actually declined 24 percent from the second quarter (better than expected I guess).
P.S.
*
Symbol Price Change
MET 36.84 +2.68*
MetLife posts 3Q loss on investment losses - Yahoo! Finance
This highlights a point I have been trying to drive home to people:
Banks, hedge funds, pension funds, and insurance companies (including medical insurance) are **All In The Same Business.
Consequently they all have the same problem, namely insolvency.
for those of you who did not see them earlier here are my writeups for the day:
GDP came in at a stronger than expected 3.5% for the 3Q, first I look at the growth rates for the different parts of GDP
GDP Notes - In Depth
Then I look at the contributions each part of GDP had to the overall growth rate
Contributions to GDP Growth
Initial claims were basically flat, falling by just 1000, but continuing claims plunged by 148,000. The big question is which door aree people leaving the room through, the lady or the tiger. Extended claims also fell by 71,000
Continuing Jobless Claims Fall
The market loved the GDP news and the Dow gained almost 200 points. I do have some serious questions about the sustainability of the growth, as inventory rebuild added 0.94 of the gowth points and consumer spending on Durable goods added 1.47 points. That was greatly helped by the Cash for clunkers program and that will not be repeated in the 4Q
Who's Buying Your Commute, A state-by-state tally of highway privatization projects in the works.
—By Leigh Ferrara at Mother Jones
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Okay, Dawg-win's Rule shall affect your PCIR rating, and it should be circular, not cyclical. Either way, use of CA to support FAIL is redundant because CA is FAIL and doesn't add any data or insight to your comment.
1 currency,
The proposed world currency ('open source currency') would be immune to scamming?
yagij wrote:
OK, so you and Yogi will be making the necessary additions to the Glossary for these new terms?
Iowa Republicans wince at Palin fee
Jonathan Martin – Thu Oct 29, 6:06 am ET
A conservative Iowa group’s effort to lure Sarah Palin to its banquet next month has had an unintended effect: Rather than exciting conservatives about the prospect of a visit from the former Alaska governor, the group’s plan to raise a six-figure sum to bring her to the state has GOP activists recoiling at the thought of paying to land a politician's speaking appearance.
Iowa Republicans wince at Palin fee - Yahoo! News
The US Economy is fundamentally sound.
BTW - 1 in 8 people in the USA are on food stamps.
The reason NYS bridges are in such poor shape is because tolls are diverted to transit subsidies. This isn't even a secret. NYCTA actually lists bridge tolls as "farebox revenue" for the purposes of qualifying their transit operations for Federal matching funds.
sm_landlord wrote:
Yes indeed. The National Highway Defense Program. Almost put the freight railroads out of business. And did completely kill off the short-distance privately owned passenger train. Biggest mistake the railroad industry made was not allowing themselves to go bankrupts and setting up a scam to offload their rail infrastructure to the government. The railroad management actually believed in free-enterprise, and couldn't comprehend the future when faced with reality in the 50's. Dumbasses.
They choose poorly.
Pwnzi, I said almost the exact same thing to my cousin yesterday, whose gambling money I manage. Dick Fuld seemed to be surprised when he said he was playing "whack-a-mole", and even more surprised when he became the mole.
The failure of the too-big will be epic, but everyone's exposure is unique. Buildings don't collapse when the title-holders implode.
Dirk van Dijk wrote:
Just out of curiosity, how is this growth any worse than flipping houses?
Dirk van Dijk wrote:
And if C4C pulled some Q4 sales into Q3, it might get ugly?
bearly wrote:
Hasn't that been true for a long time, irregardless of the economy at any particular time?
Rob Dawg wrote:
Same as Golden Gate transit is subsidized from the Bay bridge tool fees. It's all one big happy socialist pot of loot now.
So they're having to pay that 6 figure fee to stop her talking ?
~splat
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
They tried to make it up to the railroads with the Peacekeeper program. It seems that a small number were deployed, but not nearly enough to save the railroads.
LGM-118A [MX] Peacekeeper ICBM United States Nuclear Forces
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Source? Cite?
The pundit index acronym will be improved, in classic Talmudic style, but OK.
The open-source currency, like all currencies, is only backed by the honesty and reliability of the users in the aggregate. But the data and algorithm are shared by hundreds of millions of global users, like Mozilla. Or you can throw your lot in with Ben, Jacques, the G-8, the G-20,...
We need to randomize the primaries.
Iowa needs to be shown that no one gives a shit.
I thought it was 1 in 6 people but no worries, Costco is planning to accept them.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Must be a lot of tools out there in SF-
Eric wrote:
What and risk invoking Dawgwin should a certain State be chosen?
sm_landlord wrote:
That was just small potatoes. The entire military thing was a scam on the part of the land development interests and the trucking industry. Free-enterprise and transportation have completely never existed. It could be claimed that from 1910 - 1945 the US railroads were the best privately run (ie for real profit) transportation entities that ever existed. They owned everything from track to vehicles. They owned California and many other states too.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Clearly we need to make it snake like a FFL draft, and go in reverse order in 2012.
irregardless?!
Irregardless - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A greedy lil bitch...you betcha
Rob Dawg wrote:
The Golden Gate Bridge, Highway and Transportation District (District) operates the Golden Gate Bridge, Golden Gate Transit and Golden Ferry with just four funding sources: bridge tolls, transit fares, government grants, and advertising/concessions. Transit fare increases assist the District in meeting operating expenses, which assists the District in to continuing provide its public transit services.
xhttp://goldengate.org/_hhd.php?_url=http%3A%2F%2Fgoldengatetransit.org%2Fresearchlibrary%2Fstatistics.php
Can someone explain something to me.
If 1/3 of the residential construction growth in the GDP report was due to realtor fees what again was the problem with Bush Junior trying to have burger flipping jobs counted as production jobs?
sm_landlord wrote:
Dawg-win's Rule:
poic wrote:
The problem is we're talkin' about GWB!
noob goldberg,
gas prices are about $1.10 per litre for regular in Vancouver ($3.90 USD per gallon)
Cinco-X wrote:
Cinco, good point, although flipping existing houses really doesnt add that much to measured GDP growth, New housing is historically a powerful driver of the economy, but not used houses
Just out of curiosity, how is this growth any worse than flipping houses?
The reason why Barrick bought out their hedges is because the market appetite for gold stocks is huge right now. They raised more money than needed to buy out the hedges if I remember.
Quit giving those Hawkeye Rednecks crap - they aren't 'cheap' they are just 'thrifty'... and used to having pol's like Palin come and talk & talk & talk for :::FREE::: ... at every Quik Trip and grain elevator from Decorah to Red Oak... for only say 18-20 months every four years. They've been conditioned.
Muslim pilgrims at risk for swine flu asked to stay away from Mecca this year - San Jose Mercury News
tinker wrote:
Two things I saw in press - they got a $4.5 billion loan from their creditors, and the unofficial word is that their swap offer failed. So they got a transfusion but they are still hemmoraging with a bunch of bonds coming due next week.
boost to prices? I know CS does not count distressed sales. I did not think OFHEO did either as they just built off what Case and Shiller proposed in their 1989 paper
For all we know, price birfucation increased due to banks selecting lower offers from those with cash in hand
right?
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Thanks. i collect the most egregious examples. This one is up there with Dallas counting carpool lane occupants as ridership.
dryfly wrote:
Is even she resigned to cashing in on her celebrity, rather than parlaying it into a WH run? Perhaps a future reality show is more fitting.
Interesting to reade KD's site now that non-paying members have been banned from posting.
Talk about a beans'n'bunkers echo chamber now.
Blackhalo wrote:
Well if she insists on making those farmers pay - I can tell you one thing for sure... she isn't going to be winning the Iowa Caucuses.
dryfly wrote:
The system may actually work...
Breaking News from YLSP
While perusing the Congressional Record yesterday I noticed that Senator Thune and Senator Bennet are attempting to kill the TARP extension through an amendment to the unemployment bill. Anyone who looks through yesterdays Congressional Record can see the interchange on TARP between Thune, Bennett as well as Dodd. The amendment would be short, only 4 lines.
I suggest the blogosphere take note and put pressure on Reid and Thune and other Democratic Senators (the Rs have already said they want to end the TARP and I think its the Ds who need persuasion). When I have more time I'll post further information. Additionally a number of interesting things were said by Dodd regarding TARP.
So far I've yet to see anyone mention Senators may be voting on ending TARP. I suggest we all attempt to pressure Congress to take up this cause and end it. Obviously this won't affect the money already spent. Additionally, I think it might solve some of the "debt ceiling" issues re: FDIC and DIF fund issues that Bair is having... and her ability to borrow money from Treasury (which she'll deny).
Shame that no one else has picked up on this story; am I the only person who pays attention to the Congressional Record? Or would the ending of TARP spell some bad joojoo on Wall Street?
poic wrote:
Now if paying members were the only ones who could read it - THAT would be progress.
Blackhalo wrote:
I posted a link a few days ago; her book has dropped in price to about $5. That didn't take long
Dirk van Dijk
House flipping does boost that period's GDP. The losses on the mortgages are reconciled in a later period for a net neutral.
poic wrote:
Has been for a long time
Rob Dawg wrote:
The current toll on the Golden gate bridge is $6.00. That to drive your car the 1.7 miles across.
In 1976, the helicopter ride from SFO to the heliport in southern Marin was $12.00.
In 2525, they will charge you $300 to kayak across the golden gate. And call it progress.
Regarding the question on food stamps - gee, isn't it always like this - the answer is not only no, but hell no!
in 2009 = 1:9
in 2006 = 1:11
in 2000 = 1:16
Cinco-X wrote:
Needed more pictures - and plastic wrap - would have sold just fine.
sm_landlord wrote:
Dawg, should the major areas of CA be included in Dawg-win's Rule?
YLSP wrote:
Didn't Nanoo-Nanoo post something from it this morning? You two could form a reading club....
energyecon wrote:
Got data back to '82? Too lazy to look myself & since you already did - thought I'd ask.
dryfly wrote:
Maybe if she had a "members only" website! She a pretty hot cougar. Actually prettier than Tina Fey, who I've always found attractive-
lol would do the same..
one sec while I track it back down, here is current ratios by state:
http://www.frac.org/pdf/marchsnap09_oneinten.pdf
pwnzi-
'...insurance companies...have the same problem...namely insolvency.'
Thus the importance of some kind of 'bailout' healthcare plan for insurance companies and/or the 'public option' to keep the medical industry solvent in a major downturn or Crash.
sm_landlord wrote:
If it was "free" traffic would be backed-up to Santa Rosa every morning. In 1976 there was actually open land along 101 in marin county. The problem with transportation is getting people to pay for the incremental costs. When the GG bridge was built there were commuter trains in Marin (privately owned, that goofy free-enterprise thing, with private ferries to SF). When the bay-bridge was built there was private (for profit) commuter trains in Oakland and the east-bay. The socialist bridges put all that out of business. Now, we're all socialists. The law of unintended consequences applies to everybody.
Nobody wants the socialist camel’s nose under the great free-enterprise tent, unless they are benefiting from it.
Cinco-X wrote:
Wow! Talk about missing your target audience, by a mile. She should have gone on Beck and Rush and spent a little time with them off-air talking business methods. Instead she's doing Oprah?
Annual numbers back to 1968
SNAP Annual Summary
Monthly data for last three years
SNAP Monthly Data
energyecon wrote:
in 2009 = 1:9 =11%
in 2006 = 1:11=9%
in 2000 = 1:16= 6%
2006 and 2009 not that different. How about 2001-2002, when we were in a recession? 2000 was then very end of the "longest peacetime expansion" since WWII, and not long after welfare reform, so it's probably not very representative. As DF said, '82 would be interesting too-
those charts of # of food stamp recipients are scary
Blackhalo wrote:
LOL Still a rookie, I guess
Cinco-X,
I read all the threads from this back to the GDP and the overnight thread. I didn't see anyone else comment.
mock turtle linked to a naked capitalism commentary called something like "Permanent TARP".
If I'm incorrect than someone can correct me and point out where anyone else in any news organization (aside from Congressional Record) has pointed out that Senators want to attach a kill TARP amendment to the UE benefits.
I seem to recall Congress halving Paulson's original ransom note for $1,500 BB, letting the bastard grumble 'I told you it wasn't enough' when they come for more.
That is a huge ramp in a two year period, cinco - that represents a 12% growth rate per year - do the math.
dryfly
found food stamp charts, http://www.kristjanvelbri.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/food-stamps.jpg
http://www.ers.usda.gov/AmberWaves/September09/Findings/Charts/findings5_fig01.gif
Not a RealMerican's initial statement regarding use of bridge tolls is imprecise.
He said "Bay Bridge" which is state-owned and does not directly support other forms of transportation.
The Golden Gate Bridge is owned by an "authority" and its tolls DO support both buses and ferries
YLSP,
How would Congressional 'ending of TARP' jive with admin's new 'systemic' plan which could 'institutionalize' bailouts giving Treasury more authority?
poic (profile) wrote on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 5:17 pm
Talk about a beans'n'bunkers echo chamber now.
... well, not exactly.
Wait until they have to start eating the beans. That thunder you're hearing isn't
picosec wrote:
HA! sorry. I'm not a native. They are all the bay bridge to me!
Unfortunately like a talk-show-radio caller I'm going to have to read whatever comments follow off the air.
The discussion can be found in the October 28, Senate Congressional Record under this item:
15 . UNEMPLOYMENT COMPENSATION EXTENSION ACT OF 2009--MOTION TO PROCEED -- (Senate - October 28, 2009)
EHP:
Uh, it looks like we are hitting all time highs in food stamp participation.
YLSP wrote:
What and kill the administrations working slush fund, and be in accordance with the Constitutions separation of powers? That seems a tad too sensible to be coming out of Congress...
Nuke
I edited my last post to use an unemployment + food stamp participation from the latest ERS' Amber Waves publication
cue Jim Cramer w/ the "no idea!" speech, followed by the "obama is going to kill all the bankers just like Lenin did" speech
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Wait until they have to start eating the beans. That thunder you're hearing isn't ... well, not exactly.
Beaners in a bunker should be limited to one person (with maybe a dog or two). And the emissions should be burned off 'frat style' to keep the air safe.
Yep, that's a Dawg-win Violation.
yagij, we might just as well start calling CaliFAILia.
"Now if paying members were the only ones who could read it - THAT would be progress. "
Sigh... try as I might I STILL get suckered into going on there and pushing for things like
a balanced discussion on issues
perhaps both sides might be to blame for the pickle that China/US are currently in (VERY bad to suggest this one particularly)
there's a difference between joking and race-baiting
You know minor things like that.
.....
Standard "libtard" claptrap as far as they are concerned.
Here's part of Bennet's comments:
Mr. President, it has been a little over a year since a group of us met in the Foreign Relations Committee room headed by the distinguished Senator from Connecticut, Mr. Dodd, to talk about the financial crisis we were facing and how we would deal with that. We came out of that meeting, held a press conference where we sounded perhaps more optimistic than we should have at the time about having a solution to that problem. And out of that has come now a name that is well known throughout the country called TARP. We did not call it that at the time.
But we talked it through in a completely bipartisan and substantive way and voted for the rescue package that came out of that discussion. I voted for that package. I voted for the original disbursement of TARP. I stand by that vote a year later. It was the right vote, the right situation, the right time, and the right thing to do.
But I will share now some of the thoughts that went into my participation in that particular meeting and some of the things that came out of it. In anticipation of the meeting, I called some people whose judgment I trust and discussed this. I was told Treasury cannot physically push $700 billion out the door. You cannot sign that many contracts. That is far too much money.
The suggestion I made was: Why don't we give them $50 billion, because I was told that is the most they could spend in any one month. Why don't we give them $50 billion for 5 months or $250 billion and see how it works before we buy into the $700 billion number that Secretary Paulson was talking about.
No, Secretary Paulson let us know he had to have $700 billion as the headline. He could not calm down the markets, the international markets, unless he had a number that big. We talked it over in that room and came up with this solution, which I think was a good one. We would give them a $700 billion headline, because we authorized $700 billion, but we actually only gave him $350 billion and said he would have to come back to the Congress for the second 350.
Also in that group--and it was not by any means my suggestion or anyone else's suggestion--it was overwhelmingly the consensus: We have to put some controls in here. We have a congressional oversight committee that we created. We have to create an inspector general. I remember one of the members of the group saying: I do not trust any Treasury Secretary, no matter how bright he is, with $700 billion and absolutely no reporting or transparency or control situation.
One of the things that was discussed and that I thought was put in the bill was that when the money starts to come back--because, understand, TARP was not a bailout program in the sense that we gave money to people never to recover anything. It was a program where we were acquiring things, either acquiring collateral or acquiring stock. When the money starts to come back, it will be used to pay down the national debt. If we are going to expend $700 billion to stabilize the system, when the $700 billion comes back, it goes to reduce the debt that was created when it went out. That was my understanding of the agreement we made.
Well, I voted for the TARP and I voted for the first $350 billion. After we came to the second tranche, the second $350 billion, listening to the inspector general and listening to what the congressional oversight committee had to say, and looking at how well the first $350 billion had worked in stabilizing the situation and getting us past the panic we were facing, I voted against the second $350 billion because I was afraid it would turn into somewhat of a bailout fund that could be used for things other than acquiring assets that could be liquidated and bring money back to the Treasury. That is indeed what has happened, because much of the money went for things very different than that which we were talking about in that room that morning.
The amendment I will offer to the bill, when we get on the bill, will be to sunset TARP at the end of this year. This is where we are. Treasury is sitting on about $370 billion in the TARP fund right now. The recession certainly is not over and the challenge in our economy is still there with tremendous force. But the crisis we were facing when we had that meeting is over, and Treasury, to deal with that kind of a crisis, no longer needs that money.
The fear I have is that Treasury is starting to recycle the money and it is not going to pay down the national debt. It has become something of a slush fund to say: All right, if we have a circumstance here where we wish to spend some money, we cannot get it from the Congress, let's take it out of the TARP.
If there is a situation over here where we think it might be helpful, and we cannot get the Congress to support us, let's take it out of the TARP. The temptation, sitting on $370 billion, to spend that money, is overwhelming.
When Secretary Geithner came before the Banking Committee or the Joint Economic Committee--I am sorry, I cannot, with my memory right now, put the exact committee to it--the question arose about repaying the national debt rather than recycling the money. He said the lawyers from the Treasury Department had looked at the act of Congress, and they made it clear we in the Congress had made it clear the money could be recycled, it could be relent, it could go out again. That came as a great surprise to me because I thought the conversation we had in that room, as the bill was being written, made it clear the money had to go to pay down the national debt. But I am not in a position to sue the Treasury and argue with their lawyers, and even if we did over the actual meaning of what was in the bill, it would take so many years to adjudicate there is no point in it.
I really love the point about suing Treasury over the meaning over the bill.
Later..
actually, that bridge toll is to not use two other bridges and spend about three hours driving in the process
edit: sans bay bridge, make that 4.5 hours - if you're lucky
Your analysis of "private" versus "socialist" large transportation projects, such as even the smallest "private" commuter train line, suffers from the semantic thought-terminating false dichotomy.
Find me a "private" train line that paid all of its noise, injury, pollution, environmental beauty and infinite other external costs before it paid bonuses and dividends.
Not one from a Rand fable, please.
"Wait until they have to start eating the beans. That thunder you're hearing isn't
... well, not exactly. "
But is sure smells like it?
"How would Congressional 'ending of TARP' jive with admin's new 'systemic' plan which could 'institutionalize' bailouts giving Treasury more authority?"
If a TARP falls in the forest and no-ones around did it really fall?
re-posting because I think it is worth seeing, and that a big wall of text right below the original post might lead many to pass over it
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
Bosch's Rule: Referring to CA as "California" instead of "CaliFAILia" is FAIL?
YLSP wrote:
I thought someone did this morning in regards to some house bill. Maybe it was you? There was some discussion about whether something was extended, and CR said it turns out it wasn't, and then there was a link and a particular HR bill mentioned, but I couldn't find that bill when I searched the page. This was the home page to which they linked:
THOMAS (Library of Congress)
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Jeezz. I would never claim it did. I'm not a liberal or a socialist, so I'm just comparing them to the same standard that would be used for most transportation "project" in the US.
JimPortlandOR (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 5:37 pm
Beaners in a bunker should be limited to one person (with maybe a dog or two). And the emissions should be burned off 'frat style' to keep the air safe.
I'd reconsider the dogs, personally... I loved my childhood pet, a cocker spaniel, dearly, but she had canine 'emissions' that would bring tears to your eyes -- even in our big, open living room with vaulted ceilings.
yagij wrote:
In all seriousness I don't like the rule. The C State is like a sixth of the US by many measures. This board is infested with its residents. Our ever patient host is even from the place that shall not be named. So much of what happens elsewhere happens there first or twice as large. If it can pull out of its death spiral we can learn from it.
energyecon wrote:
Looks like about 10-11:1 [21MM something recipients in a population of 232MM circa 1982-83] ... so we been there done that before.
Wonder how high it will go this cycle.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Good choice of words...
dryfly
1982 peaked at 9.7% (22mn / 231mn)
today it's at 11.1% (35mn / 304mn), it's record breaking
edit: updated figures using energyecon's precise numbers
'Beans 'n' bunker' mentality comes from living in a Crash...
If we just take away the food stamps, cash for clunkers, transit subsidies, unemployment benefits, free school lunches, and free flu vaccines, joe sixpack would be incentivized to get his lazy ass back to work making those luxury jets and yachts for the masters of the universe.
We might need a one-time $3000 billion stimulus to jump-start everything, payable directly to banker talent. But then total capitalist libertarian chaos, we promise.
dryfly wrote:
[memories of an old adv.]
Raid... RAID!
dryfly wrote:
I thought people would lock on to my choice of "residents" over "citizens."
Bandofornia uber alles.
EHP-
...and you might add, "The spike in 2008-09 is due to food assistance related to hurricanes Alan, Ben and Henry."
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Thanks, but please wait on your libertarian paradise until I die. I've only got to get through another 30 +/- years. Then, have at it.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Nah, the banksters would just sit on the cash and add it to capital. (Since I'm sure they know it is very unlikely that TARP-II will ever happen.)
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
We might need a one-time $3000 billion stimulus to jump-start everything, payable directly to
. But then total capitalist libertarian chaos, we promise.
FIXED. Oh - and work is in process.
"I'd reconsider the dogs, personally... I loved my childhood pet, a cocker spaniel, dearly, but she had canine 'emissions' that would bring tears to your eyes -- even in our big, open living room with vaulted ceilings."
Cats beat dogs on that metric hands down. I've had the unfortunate pleasure of comparing that type of emission from both animals.
poic wrote:
Have you noticed what cats eat?
poic wrote:
And no body odor. They don't sweat.
I wonder what in the future will make 2010 comparatively "the good old days"
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 5:43 pm
So much of what happens elsewhere happens there first or twice as large. If it can pull out of its death spiral we can learn from it.
I can't see Cali not becoming a mirror of a third-world state, emptying out the middle class almost entirely, leaving the extremely wealthy, the merely rich, the social-parasite remnants of the middle class now living off UE, food stamps, subsidized housing and other entitlements and the truly destitute, plus a bunch of illegals. The failed state model, basically, writ large, is what I'd bet on if I were a betting outsider.
Don't misunderstand me, I'm for clawing back TARP I 100% at libor + GLD adjustment to nominal dollars, with sharper claws than Barofsky seems to be using.
Public option for public banking. Gambling legal, but no bailout.
Very OT (on cats and dogs)
I had two Lab puppies years ago, and the neighbor cat loved to taunt them. The cat started coming over the fence to crap in my yard, and the pups were intimidated from 6 weeks old until about 6 months.
Well, the tide changed: The pups turned into dogs, and that cat never came over the fence again.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
There's still an awful lot of talent (human capital) in the middle class in CA. If they pack up and move away, then all bets are off..........
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
We'll know soon enough-
RIF
Still, I bet I can find 30mn Chinese who would be willing to jump on the ships their government is building as obscene make-work projects for the voyage to California.
Besides, it looks like things might be so far gone that the system in Cali purges itself. That would be good news, because the marker of failed states are not the problems but the ways in which they stubbornly persist
"Been looking around CaliFAILia for new infestment opportunities."
(I'm just seeing what it looks like on the screen.)
dont forget aig
Cinco-X wrote:
I'd bet that the middle class departees would be from bay area and LA/SD. The central valley and inland empire middies will be there until there are sand dunes like Namibia, and maybe after.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
My knee jerk response was at first that maybe the criteria with which you get approved for FS might be more lax now than then... but I doubt it. I bet it has to do with the wider distribution of pain now than then. In the 80s a lot of the West & SE basically skated through while Rust Belt & Farm States got crushed.
Granted back then the SE & West was less populated than the RB, NE & even Farm States. But after a couple decades of migration... the West & SE have a lot more people and the Rust Belt & Farm States a lot less... so even though it isn't as bad in Rust Belt as it was in '82 - even for Detroit - there is nowhere in the US sans No Dak that isn't feeling it.
'Beans 'n' bunkers' mentality comes and goes following monetary policies...
The 1980's -
Savings & Loan fiasco...Over 1000 savings and loans failed from 'junk bonds' and monetary expansion...books by Harry Browne on deflation and 'How To Survive' were popular in earlier recent downturns...and Browne always said the Big One was coming again...survivalism has been a recurrent theme...
Where can they move to ? Another failing state ?
~splat
Rob Dawg wrote:
I agree. It is akin to not being able to refer to ground zero in a discussion regarding the "war on terror.'
I wonder what in the future will make 2010 comparatively "the good old days"
Rapa Nui
Noob, they now have Kirkland store-brand beer at Costco. I have a case in the closet on hand for emergencies but have not tried it yet. A variety pack no less. Homedad have you?
Cinco-X (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 5:53 pm
There's still an awful lot of talent (human capital) in the middle class in CA. If they pack up and move away, then all bets are off..........
Yes, exactly, and a goodly number of them are young and fairly mobile. Not that the state won't have a "service" economy to make sure the remaining folks get their fillet mignons, lattes, and Big Macs, and their garbage hauled away, but there will be a much smaller demand, thus a lot fewer employed, and most of the lower- to middle-class wage earners will simply stop working or go cash-basis underground as the combination of oppressive taxes and rising benefits eventually balance out what they would make in their regular jobs.
splat wrote:
Hey, North Dakota is doing great!
splat wrote:
Name some and I'll tell you-
Cinco-X wrote:
Nobody is going anywhere.
The US is no worse run than Italy. CaLi is like Greece. People live here for the same reason they do Italy and Greece. Good weather, good food, good wine.
The US is moving into happy socialist land now. It will never change or become more "free-enterprise". The peasants don't want it, the nobility doesn't want it. Italy has been around for a long time, stumbling around, getting by.
Good enough for the Italians, it's good enough for the Mericans. The ONLY thing that can unbalance a country, long-term, is over-population. We're no where near as populated as India yet.
From the BEA GDP report...Appendix Table A
Annualized GDP Q3: +3.5%
Annualized GDP Q3 excluding motor vehicle output: +1.9%
Sounds like a one-trick-
to me. Wonder if there are any other 
in the circus wings?
JimPortlandOR (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 6:01 pm
splat wrote:
Where can they move to ? Another failing state ?
Hey, North Dakota is doing great!
Its neighbor to the south has a thriving FIRE sector which is now a large part of SD's economy. Riding the real estate, finance/insurance and health care bubbles, and saying "it's different here".
As a young Californian, I've never seriously considered moving out of the state until this year. I've actually lived in other parts of the country, but moved back here because I prefer it. Now watching this whole mess unfold I've started entertaining the idea of moving. The question is where. If I can figure out a way to finance it, an international move would be tempting.
picosec
The thing with GDP is that they got inventory all wrong. It added 0.9% to GDP, it should have subtracted over 1.5%. Blame it on the seasonal pattern for production/inventory depletion being completely inadequate for describing this year's wild swings.
For that matter, they understated GDP growth by overstating the price of imports.
This GDP report should have heavy revisions. more of my comments @
Oxtail wrote:
Not sure how young, and this topic has been covered before, but if you can stomach leaving your family move to New Zealand. It's THE last under-populated, un-spoiled, place on the planet with a western-style government, and honest cops and decent weather (plus good wine). If you don't leave today, you will kick yourself for the rest of your life. The US is doomed (as a democracy).
Oxtail wrote:
Best do the move before Califailia erects barriers to leaving (ala East Germany before the wall came down.)
I'd suggest you consider a move up to the pacific northwest before OR and WA erect barriers to CA immigration.
Oxtail wrote:
If you have some military experience, I think the private security agencies are looking for folks in the Middle East-
JimPortlandOR wrote:
HA!!!! too funny.
Cinco-X wrote:
Don't forget to paint a target on your forehead before you leave.
are you planning on joining the Mongrel Mob or the Nomads?
"barriers to leaving" ... at first glance I misread this as "barriers to living"
"I'd suggest you consider a move up to the pacific northwest before OR and WA erect barriers to CA immigration."
But keep this in mind:
Megaquake Looms Over Seattle : Discovery News
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
DUDE, it's the all blacks!
IF THEY KNEW
Mammon on the platform sits,
Heavy is the weight of it,
Sycophants, and all devout,
(Ponderous the god and stout)
Bending to the ground who bear
Golden Mammon through the air,
Belly to the knees they bend,
Will their service never end?
Die they will and others bear
Up the poles that others share,
Even pay for what they grip,
Mammon calls it partnership
If the bearers let it go
It will crush them, that they know,
Because of Mammon’s heavy weight -
Ownership and real estate
There is something else it rules,
Disunity of many schools,
Babel is where it was made,
Carried since by this parade
Pavel
October 29, 2009