Though this quarter’s Market Tightness Index is improved compared to last quarter, it still indicates higher vacancies and lower rents.
Gregg Easterbrook would advise Mr. Obrinsky to store this phrase in his AutoText feature to facilitate its copy-and-pasting into NMHC press releases for the foreseeable future.
I now have one vacancy and another one coming (notice given). Interestingly, both tenants are moving up to larger, more expensive places.
So now I get to find out what the market looks like for 1/1s locally.
Energyecon, your chart rocks. Any chance you could add those two little comment boxes again, before I shamelessly forward it to a bunch of colleagues? It was very helpful to see where May and August were on that ugly line.
The salvage year guy needs to focus on selling into the spare parts business. I have been looking for parts for months and can't find what I'm looking for. If the salvage yards would even bother to post their inventory on the web or something...
He already sliced the cars he has and sold what parts he could. Granted the engine and transmission is toast and only worth anything as scrap. Maybe this sector could use some tightening of their inventory management procedures, but I think they just expected to gut the car for the secondary market and sell the scrap to China. Now, no one is repairing their cars and China isn't buying scrap. D'oh.
So now I get to find out what the market looks like for 1/1s locally.
My wishful thought for the day:
Wouldn't it be great if all signed apt. lease contracts had to be published (web and/or newspaper) with enough info so that we didn't have to guess at HOW MUCH the landlords are inflating their asking prices above what they have already signed up for? Rent negotiations are tough when the renter has no data (but the owners do) and the owners lie like unfaithful spouces (or the MSM/Fed/Treasury).
Is occupancy decline like a heart rate decline? Going from 90 beats/min -> 60 beats/min is bad, but in this analogy, it is a good thing that it is now only falling from 60 beats/min -> 50 beats/min.?
Wouldn't it be great if all signed apt. lease contracts had to be published (web and/or newspaper) with enough info so that we didn't have to guess at HOW MUCH the landlords are inflating their asking prices above what they have already signed up for?
In my city, all actual rents are published by the city on their web site. It's part of the rent control regime.
I don't know how much delay there is, but I have to file within a short period of time after renting out a unit.
Michele Bachmann is 'far more dangerous...' - crazyv
-Not a fan of Republicans due to Bush-Cheney fiasco but on what policy positions is Bachmann a nazi?
*questioned Iraq troop surge
*opponent of Federal bailout programs
*supports nuclear strike on Iran as an option
*against public option
*opposes minimum wage increases
Is it this one?
*against same sex marriage
Mel (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 2:10 pm
I had family survive--there were no Germans--Austrians --that didn't know the truth by 1940--none. They were very happy to steal Jews' property and to round them up for capture. Remember, after the war, they didn't give this loot back for some 25 years. Also, all Europeans realized what, and why it was going on. The death of Jews was not the reason for any country to go to war--but the elimination of them was still a goal after the war. Hence, the survivors were sent packing to Israel--without money or acceptance--and refused permission to return to their former property. History gets revised--and distorted--I believe the people with numbers on their arms. Final rant--no air force deemed it prudent to bomb the rail lines leading to the "camps." The fucking pigs went along with the slaughter.
OK, I'll give the rise to people taking advantage of one of two things: The homeowner buyer credit and/or better offerings elsewhere in rentals. But again I think the first time homebuyer credit occludes the real story which is job losses that continue to remain ugly despite the rosy GDP report today that borders on pathological lying territory (before it was just selective truth telling).
The media is doing just a horrible, horrible job reporting about the millions unemployed, where they are and how they are coping. That is the story behind these numbers and as we saw today with the UE numbers, it isn't improving.
Without fancy charts, derivative calculus, one can derive the said truth from congressional spaghetti throwing. If there is recovery and we are out of recession, then why must we continue and expand a homebuyer tax credit to include the 'move up crowd'. eh? If the economy is expanding then why are the UE numbers still over 500K week over week over week over week with more and more falling off the rolls as their benefits run out.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure it out even without the inside information, a degree in economics or GS telling us how its is. This is nothing more than candy/sugar high for the stock market which, after all, is the US economy and totally representative of We da people.
Rep. Brad Sherman, Democrat of CA, said the new 'systemic risk' administration plan would be the 'greatest transfer of money from the U.S. Treasury to Wall St. in U.S. history' and institutionalize Too Big To Fail with 'permanent unlimited bailout authority.' (NY Times)
-Not a fan of Republicans due to Bush-Cheney fiasco but on what policy positions is Bachmann a nazi?
I don't know about Nazi, but she does make for some fun quotes:
"No one that I know disagrees with natural selection — that you can take various breeds of dogs ... breed them, you get different kinds of dogs," she said. "It's just a fact of life. ... Where there's controversy is (at the question) 'Where do we say that a cell became a blade of grass, which became a starfish, which became a cat, which became a donkey, which became a human being?' There’s a real lack of evidence from change from actual species to a different type of species. That's where it's difficult to prove." - Michele Bachmann quoted in the Stillwater Gazette, September 29, 2003.
noob,
yeah she's apparently not buying darwinian 'theory'...her proposed 'controversial' evolutionary chain-of-events is interesting...donkey to human being...maybe democrats
There’s a real lack of evidence from change from actual species to a different type of species. That's where it's difficult to prove." - Michele Bachmann quoted in the Stillwater Gazette, September 29, 2003.
Of course, she's correct about the lack of direct evidence; we can only "infer" the origin of the species from the fossil record. This is still the case despite the advances in DNA technology, etc. Evolution is still classified as a theory.
Full disclosure: I do not believe in Creationism or Intelligent Design, and also feel that Evolution or some variant of it is probably correct. I'm simply stating the fact that Evolution has not been "proved" once and for all, and is still a theory.
eah she's apparently not buying darwinian 'theory'...her proposed 'controversial' evolutionary chain-of-events is interesting...donkey to human being...maybe democrats
That's the problem with Nazies. They ruined a perfectly good macho symbol AND the word "Fascist", that describes a human "ism" that is the most common political structure on the planet - worship of nobility. Now everybody has to stumble around trying to figure out ANOTHER word to use for "peasants that worship the powerful", or "peasants that worship those that already have the power", or "peasants that worship the worthy".
To: FEDGov
** Top Secret **
Operation "Screw the Shorts" commenced at 8:30am.
GDP bunker buster took out main resistance groups.
Wire-traffic on CR indicates pockets of resistance in flyover country as well as a hot-spot somewhere up North in Canada.
Pomo drones on stand-by for your orders.
LOL; Two days of "right sizing" blown away with a single round.
For example, if spot gold is trading at $1050 and March 2010 Gold Futures are trading at $1075 they would sell the March futures that would obligate them to sell gold at 1075/oz when that contract expires in March.
If gold spot in March is lower than 1075 - they will have made money on their hedge. If it is higher then they are forced to sell gold cheaper than spot for a loss.
I should have clarified, I recognize how hedging works. What I was asking was why would they go through the $5.4 billion expense of buying out their delivery contracts unless they thought it would help them benefit from a future run-up in price? What is their long-term price target?
I guess what I'm saying is, they just when through the expense to allow themselves to sell on the spot market. If the price starts falling, when do they start re-establishing the hedges? When gold is $900? $800? Whatever level their hedging program will kick back in at is the amount they are going to lose in addition to the $5.4 billion bath they just took.
My point is that unless they're forecasting to hit $1500 or something even higher, this could be a very expensive way of shutting the barn door after the horses are long gone.
I do not believe in Creationism or Intelligent Design, and also feel that Evolution or some variant of it is probably correct. I'm simply stating the fact that Evolution has not been "proved" once and for all, and is still a theory.
I can't believe my grenade hit Cinco. Sorry dude, I should have watched where I was throwing.
Seriously if you are trading in this market, never short going into a POMO. All that liquidity has to go somewhere and that "somewhere" is into equities--or a large chunk of it.
"Final rant--no air force deemed it prudent to bomb the rail lines leading to the "camps." "
FWIW, trains especially locomotives were considered high value targets and were high on the list of "targets of opportunity".
Rail lines were very difficult to bomb with the degree of accuracy of the day, and usually resulted in little or no damage that was often easily repairable.
Taking out a locomotive had a bigger long term consequence.
If it was known the train wasn't carrying POW's, once the locomotive was taken out the train was strafed to destroy arms and equipment.
But IMHO we could have and should have done more than what we did, but those decisions were made with limited information and with limited resources to act with.
The 'peasants' worship celebrities and star athletes...
Yeah. very true. A fascist peasants and a socialist peasant would worship THEIR nobility (and both celebrities and athletes). Very true. So, I guess I'm complaining about the loss of the word that describes a society run by corporate nobility (the Mussolini Fascism thing) and the peasants that worship them.
I'm a peasant under glass, getting served at a dinner for GS execs. I don't worship or believe so perhaps one of my bones will adhere to the larynx of one of the eaters of the dead. A girl can dream.
White House already attacking this mornings AP report on over counting of stimulus jobs.
"Our twenty-day review wraps up today and we can say with confidence that the full set of reports going up tomorrow – corrected versions of the reports posted on October 15th, and many more new reports being posted for the first time now -- are far sharper than the initial ones you saw two weeks ago. In fact, our review process had already caught four out of five items that AP's misleading story cites as “over-counting” jobs. With every review of the reports, with every call to the person filing them to confirm them, the information has gotten better and better – and we are looking forward to their public posting tomorrow. It will be a historic moment for government transparency" The White House Blog | The White House
"Seriously if you are trading in this market, never short going into a POMO. All that liquidity has to go somewhere and that "somewhere" is into equities--or a large chunk of it."
I haven't traded this market for months now. Sitting on 3 lonely short positions for months and long ky as a hedge.
He's one of many high profile fund managers to speak publicly of his bullish views on the gold price and gold mining companies. I wonder if anyone has access to his fund letters or further commentary.
My point is that unless they're forecasting to hit $1500 or something even higher, this could be a very expensive way of shutting the barn door after the horses are long gone.
Gotcha.
What I was asking was why would they go through the $5.4 billion expense of buying out their delivery contracts unless they thought it would help them benefit from a future run-up in price? What is their long-term price target?
I'd check to see if the CEO's nephew is a commodities broker looking to earn the commish on their hedge short covering trade.
I don't worship or believe so perhaps one of my bones will adhere to the larynx of one of the eaters of the dead. A girl can dream.
Well, there's dumbass peasants and just-peasants. The dumbasses are the believers in THEIR nobility and keep voting for THEIR party over and over and over and over again, expecting things will be different next time (like sports fans).
I just saw that Paul Tudor Jones made some positive remarks on gold: Gold Price Blog: Intra-day Gold Price News.
Why do you keep spamming here? No one is going to visit your site.
Instead of parroting, why don't you let us know what original insights you have into the market, the price of , and what the hell we could replace the word 'fascist' with?
With every review of the reports, with every call to the person filing them to confirm them, the information has gotten better and better – and we are looking forward to their public posting tomorrow. It will be a historic moment for government transparency"
I don't really have anything else to say besides this administration has had 10 months, and all I've seen Wall-Street & RE while UE insurance coverage goes "buh-bye!" and UE goes
I'd check to see if the CEO's nephew is a commodities broker looking to earn the commish on their hedge short covering trade.
I have a feeling it's even less logical than that. I figure they probably started the process of developing a white paper that discussed the method of evaluating the option of initiating a study on how they could take advantage of the current (2007) run-up in gold prices. And after three consultants submitted bids, which had to be vetted, and then approved. And after the intern, his boss, her boss, the VP of research, the VP of administration, the CFO, and then the CEO all signed off, it went to the board for discussion. That whole process finally finished last week.
The capacity of systems evolves to match demand. Anything else would be "inefficient." Economic systems have very high inertia. Any rapid change in the demand is going to stress the system, possibly to the breaking point.
Congress often mandates step or impulse-function changes in demand, with either ignorance or the expectation that systems are elastic enough to respond.
hey noob, relax mister, no need to use foul language. I have posted stories from several sites, and shared my ideas on several things. and if you actually took the time to check out some of the things I've posted you would know this instead of trying to attack me.
Thinking about Michele Bachman made me wonder why the Right & Far Right are getting so paranoid...it's the crashing economy for Main St. and all the gold commercials...and I think it was/is the War On Terror and Islamophobia where the Right(and Left) media works up fear in the population to promote and implement War policies...
In all honesty, the salvage yard guy was rather stupid to commit to buying so much scrap metal from multiple dealerships. It doesn't take too much foresight to realize that cars across the country were going to be scrapped at the exact same time, and even if demand hadn't slowed down, you were talking a one time glut that would take a while to process. Apparently, he thought it was going to be a quick flip, easy cash deal, and instead, when everyone is doing the same thing, the value of said thing goes through the floor.
.
Hoocoodanode?
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 1:40 pm
merchants of fear wrote:
The 'peasants' worship celebrities and star athletes...
Yeah. very true. A fascist peasants and a socialist peasant would worship THEIR nobility (and both celebrities and athletes). Very true. So, I guess I'm complaining about the loss of the word that describes a society run by corporate nobility (the Mussolini Fascism thing) and the peasants that worship them.
Huxley's "scientific dictatorship"? I guess we can just call it reality.
Michelle Bachmann was on a rant a couple weeks ago about school health clinics being "sex clinics" where your children will be wisked away and given forced abortions while masturbating to gay porn...or some such nonsense. She's a complete loon and one has to wonder how she managed to get elected.
Got a flyer today from a payday loan store that's having its grand opening here in the 'hood--it has a coupon for "25% off your first payment" and there's "no credit check." Out of curiosity I googled them and found this....
I guess I'm out of touch--do people really have loans out at a half dozen different payday loan stores for $500 or so each? Doesn't seem like a viable long term plan and I doubt that this is just somebody trying to get themselves through a short-term rough patch (although they may have thought so when they started).
I'd love to get the APR on one of these, but I'd have to give them an e-mail address and I'm not even willing to give up my yahoo account for it. Bad enough to be on their slow-mail list....
I know what you're saying and I agree to some extent; however, evolution (genetic mutation and natural selection) is a theory that describes the factual process by which organisms change and adapt to their surroundings. This is analogous to the theory of General Relativity which describes the factual process of gravity. The theories might change or even be thrown out completely, but the factual processes they attempt to explain are still facts.
poic
I ordered the attack last night, was surprised by how high they reported prelim GDP though.
I didn't think they would set the hurdle for Q4 so high by imputing in the simplest way possible the normal SA inventory change onto C4C time. Inventory alone ought to subtract 2.4% from gdp growth after revisions, but then again they overstated imports as well. I stick by 2.61% Q3 gdp.
Actually, it may help the rest of us if those folks try to defy the Theory of Gravity. Once they can do it, I'll grant 'em permission to defy the Theory of Evolution too.
Even Newton's Laws of Motion are still theories. It doesn't mean they do not perfectly (or nearly perfectly) describe how bodies behave when subjected to a force (or forces).
My lungs are killing me. I have to huff so deeply on the Dow 10k bong to get any feeling of a high right now. Bernanke put some pretty rotten weed in there.
If the Fed does continue its talk of fighting deflation, this could cause the dollar to further sell off and the gold price to rise, as discussed here: Deflation fighting and the gold price
I think this is especially true for gold, as today's news that European central banks have agreed to renew the Central Bank Gold Agreement and sell less gold should provide a further lift to the gold price, as discussed here: Gold price steady on renewal of CBGA
Whatever contribution this guy is making to PCE, it's short-lived.
Reminds me of something I saw in Knoxville a couple of years ago--a payday loan store had a sign in front that said "your first loan free." It's like giving away heroin--they know once you get started you'll never be able to stop.
TCA
Newton's Laws do accurately describe the physics. They are just incomplete for cases of extreme scale. Imprecise in some cases perhaps, but they are accurate.
An earlier wave of Right 'paranoia' came during the Savings and Loan collapse where many farms were going under...
Unfortunately, the Right might be the only ones capable of changing things. It wouldn't be for the better (imo), but it would be "change" you can really SEE (as oppose to believing in).
"I would argue that gravity and evolution are observed facts. "
There are observed phenomena called 'gravity' and 'evolution.' I would not be surprised if enfolding theories of both were still to come. I just read yesterday about some cosmological observations which seem to present some anomalies in General Relativity.
Any of you grouchy bears get queasy when you see the advertisements on CNBC for the SuperFund investments ? I mean, what planet do the boneheads that run that operation live on ? Where I live Superfund == TOXIC WASTE.
Amazing.
There is nothing wrong with the DJIA. Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are controlling transmission. If we wish to make it louder, we will bring up the volume. If we wish to make it softer, we will tune it to a whisper. We will control the horizontal. We will control the vertical. We can roll the image, make it flutter. We can change the focus to a soft blur or sharpen it to crystal clarity. For the next hour, sit quietly and we will control all that you see and hear. We repeat: there is nothing wrong with your internet. You are about to participate in a great adventure. You are about to experience the awe and mystery which reaches from the inner mind to... The Wall*Street Limits.
Full disclosure: I do not believe in Creationism or Intelligent Design, and also feel that Evolution or some variant of it is probably correct. I'm simply stating the fact that Evolution has not been "proved" once and for all, and is still a theory.
The older and more cynical I get, the more I see us as some kind of cosmic joke, and/or science project of super intelligent aliens.
I cannot believe that we're alone (discounting the oil floating around the lens of the NASA uv camera!)
I have a feeling it's even less logical than that. I figure they probably started the process of developing a white paper that discussed the method of evaluating the option of initiating a study on how they could take advantage of the current (2007) run-up in gold prices. And after three consultants submitted bids, which had to be vetted, and then approved. And after the intern, his boss, her boss, the VP of research, the VP of administration, the CFO, and then the CEO all signed off, it went to the board for discussion. That whole process finally finished last week.
"I would argue that gravity and evolution are observed facts. "
There are observed phenomena called 'gravity' and 'evolution.' I would not be surprised if enfolding theories of both were still to come. I just read yesterday about some cosmological observations which seem to present some anomalies in General Relativity.
You can disprove general relativity in any number of quick thought experiments. It isn't universal relativity after all.
Besides; Dow 10k. Reality denied. It's right there in front of us.
The future, pavel. And the past. At the top of any major political campaigns, and deep in the think-tanks. The rest is window-dressing and pageantry.
And by "scientist" doesn't necessarily mean a dude in a white over-coat. Some people are born knowing how to manipulate dumbasses. If you – as a dumbass manipulator - can give a good prediction of the future behavior of your control-dumbass-group, that would make one a scientist. All science is supposed to be is a way of predicting the future with repeatable experiments.
Faux News is just a laboratory then.
As are any liberal-progressive-socialist-democratic websites or conservative-fascist-rightwingnut-republican website with its control-group of dumbasses.
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 2:22 pm
If you – as a dumbass manipulator - can give a good prediction of the future behavior of your control-dumbass-group, that would make one a scientist. All science is supposed to be is a way of predicting the future with repeatable experiments.
+1. It's not pleasant to think about, but it's as close as I've been able to get to the truth.
edit: and when behaviors arise that make things unpredictable... you try to re-condition that behavior to something you CAN predict.
TCA
you edited your post, I replied to one that said Newton's theories were explicitly not accurate. I don't mind that you corrected yourself, but I would like it if you disclosed that in the context of trying to correct my correction
Hence, the survivors were sent packing to Israel--without money or acceptance--and refused permission to return to their former property.
That issue has to do with property rights & title to real property. Although I'm not excusing or rationalizing the behavior of Austria or Germany in any way. Two of my mother's close relatives were not able to obtain visas to anywhere accepting Jewish people before the war started (and the borders closed, making departure much more difficult). One of them had owned a home in Baden, a small town not far from Vienna. That house was apparently sold (by whom I'm not sure) to someone. After the war, my mother's parents were given an opportunity to get the house--but they would've had to pay whatever the purchasers had paid. They declined. Don't know where the right & wrong of that situation lies. Reparations payment ($$ payment, etc.) & litigation concerning that continues.
Don't forget that other nations failed to help --just as they fail to help other persecuted people today. One of the problems Jews (or anyone else trying to leave Naziland or occupied territories) had was finding a nation-state that would let them enter legally. In the US, only the rich/famous got asylum, everyone else (including my mother & her family) had to have a sponsor, and even then, the State Dept. took so long to process applications that many people who did have sponsors died in the camps or were shot, gassed, whatever, anyway.
The 'law of gravity' is just another 'theory' to be refuted as it has been...nothing is certain in science or the scientific method...so 'evolution' is game for challenges...in 'junk science' especially today's scientific knowledge based on repeated test evidence can simply become Myth tommorrow with media memes...
shill
It's to be expected. This bounce will run its course over 2-3 weeks. At which point maybe yields are edging higher, then all the commodities and emerging markets lead the way down which means USD up, which means US markets down
I donno. If something is a "theory" or not doesn't matter. What matters is whether the "theory" can make predictions (reasonably) and can handle observations of past phenomena (reasonably).
I define reasonably as when there are "enough" other people - people that sound rational to me - that agree on the observations.
The more people that agree, the less I think of it as "a theory".
No problem. It's certainly not important. My original reply was going to include a form of the 2nd law which takes a change of mass into consideration but then I thought better of it.
TCA, sportsfan
I genuinely retract the statement. In my mind I read the word accurate. Maybe it's a sign of needing some more coffee than anything else. I shouldn't have been such a dink in the first place over specific wording of a tangential topic. edit: changed coffee more to more coffee, lol
The media is doing just a horrible, horrible job reporting about the millions unemployed, where they are and how they are coping.
The media is unemployed.
So much of news is regurgitated from a centralized core of producers even at the local level. Macroeconomic stats have nothing J6P can relate to or is interested in. Unemployment needs to be seen at the local, tangible level and all the news seems interested in is cherry-picking a few human interest stories that reach viewers but simultaneously assure them that, hey, at least that isn't me.
NaRm,
Scientific debate...For example, used to be a skyscraper on fire wouldn't collapse or if it did, it wouldn't be at the speed of gravity. Now all those assumptions based on time-tested theories is bunk...nothing is certain anymore in science...so maybe Creationism has a shot...
There are many millions of persecuted groups of people around the world.
A very small percentage are uniformly rounded up, gassed, shot, tortured, raped and forced to perform slave labor.
Not all genocides are identical. Why do you bring up the Palestinians in this context?
had lunch at the Olive Garden today. was dead, so i was in and out in 25 minutes. of course, I was at the OG because the PF Chang's across the street had a 20-minute wait...
I heard several people this morning on financial news say, "Why is the dollar down if things are turning around and GDP is up?"
The answer is that it is how GDP is up that is driving the dollar down. The more we have to borrow to make GDP positive, the worse it is for the dollar, our debt and interest on debt and our ability to keep getting loans.
Scientific debate...For example, used to be a skyscraper on fire wouldn't collapse or if it did, it wouldn't be at the speed of gravity. Now all those assumptions based on time-tested theories is bunk...nothing is certain anymore in science...so maybe Creationism has a shot...
...shipping those ugly-assed beans halfway around the world for you. We have standards, you know.
Why not? How else are you going to funnel revenue to your energy companies knowing that the use of oil and gasoline are on the decline? Seems like a win-win in paying to ship the beans to hungry people. Farms get paid. Energy companies get paid. Logistic companies get paid. Congresscritters/PMs get paid.
.
Those tar sands need support too, eh?
The answer is that it is how GDP is up that is driving the dollar down. The more we have to borrow to make GDP positive, the worse it is for the dollar, our debt and interest on debt and our ability to keep getting loans.
What is GDP at when measured in gold or oil vs. dollars?
Operation Dow 10k has encountered some resistance.
We have located resistance fighters by triangulating via tin-foil hats.
Request permission to start operation "Rip out bear entrails".
CIT just did (another) belly-flop. somebody must have gotten a preview of the bondholder vote due a midnight. somehow i don't think the Nov 3 bonds are getting repaid at par either way,,,
whatever your local price was last April/May is where gasoline needs to be today to keep up where the spot price of crude oil
oil will be down by December, but sales were never going to be great to begin with. one of those lose-lose situations
" What is GDP at when measured in gold or oil vs. dollars?
Broken Record: how about in a weighted basket of all liquid tangibles. There is no perfect index, but you still aim to approach perfection. "
For the purpose of what GDP is being used for which is smoke and mirrors to increase consumer confidence it's immaterial what GDP is versus gold, oil, wheat etc..
J6P doesn't care about anything other than GDP is going up = good, 401k going up = good. And the government knows that.
1 currency now,
Why do I mention Palestinians?
In azurite's comments she mentioned...
*property rights
*occupied territories
*persecuted people
I could say mention other groups but Palestinians came to mind in this context in today's events.
oil will be down by December, but sales were never going to be great to begin with. one of those lose-lose situations
Out of curiousity, EHP, what's your gas price doing in Van? Ontario is terrible; price increases are seriously out-pacing the run-up in both oil and the dollar, which makes my ; It was 101.2/litre a couple days ago.
My definition of adequate liquidity to warrant inclusion in the 1 world index is currently anything that trades more often on Earth than Martian rocks.
Bucky getting hammered against AUD. Clearly the boat is rocking to port, and all the money is flowing into stocks. Mid November, we will rock to s'board, and the money will flow back to USD and T's.
Bucky getting hammered against AUD. Clearly the boat is rocking to port, and all the money is flowing into stocks. Mid November, we will rock to s'board, and the money will flow back to USD and T's.
When I used to drive tanker trucks I could always tell which ones had a wide open tank and which ones had good baffles.
What this market needs are some good liquidity baffles to keep this sloshing from getting out of hand.
A couple of comments on hedging. The cost of production is very important to a futures hedger. Even if a company loses money on the hedge( buying back a short position at a price higher than the price at which the futures was originally sold), the company may still make money if the cost of goods sold is higher than the cost of production plus the loss on the hedge. Many hedgers run into trouble if the price of the futures sale is below the cost of production because the producer is locking in a loss. However sometimes it better to lock in a small loss than not hedge and incur a large loss if prices continue to drop.
My WAG is that the gold producer is buying back his hedges for some of the following reasons: The short hedges have been pretty consistantly losing money. The cost of production is substantially below the present cash price so that the company will still make adaquate profits even if the price of gold drops somewhat from the present price. The company is bullish on the future price if gold.
It will be real interesting when J6P opens his quarterly statement and discovers that a 70% increase in his account doesn't come close to backfilling the 50% decrease from previous quarters. It might even arrive at the same time he finds out his ARM is adjusting upward. You know, right about when the X-mas bills show up in the stack with the new property tax rate notice.
I currency now,
As you said there are many more atrocities in history...Ukranian genocide 1932-33, Armenian genocide 1915-16, Cambodian genocide, Vietnamese genocide...but OT here.
"It will be real interesting when J6P opens his quarterly statement and discovers that a 70% increase in his account doesn't come close to backfilling the 50% decrease from previous quarters."
You know, right about when the X-mas bills show up in the stack with the new property tax rate notice.
And the pink slip? Is January not the worst month historically for layoffs? But of course UE will be down once all those slackers from last year get kicked off the back end.
The cost of production is substantially below the present cash price so that the company will still make adaquate profits even if the price of gold dops somewhat from the prosent price.
This doesn't make sense to me. They're paying (if I understand their hedge correctly) market prices to buy out their contracts. So if the price of gold stays completely flat (hypothetically), it's irrelevant right now whether or not they buy out their hedges or maintain them. It's exactly the same profit.
If they buy them out and the price goes up, their margin becomes the difference between what they bought their hedges out for, say $1030, and the new price. At $1050, they made $20. If the price goes down, they lose.
I completely agree that anyone hedging has to--first and foremost--lock in a price that exceeds their cost of production. Cost of production, for a commodity producer, is the most important profitability metric.
It just looks like a giant gamble, because I would have assume their previous hedges would have locked in their selling at a price exceeding cost of production (logically) and now they've removed that protection for a 50/50 shot at making more money (or losing a bunch of money) because they're completely exposed to price movements.
Eric I'm thinking of entering the main event at Foxwoods next week. Never played a 10k. You won't hear my results here, though, as I cling to some semblance of anonymity.
Commandant Bachman made Ben and Timmy meekly swear allegiance to the almighty dollar a few months ago after Timmy told the Chinese it may be negotiable some day. There are still some crazies here who think a global hard currency which renders the money-changers impotent is talk of treason. They don't know if its Commie or pro-free market Capitalist, so they just blame the Jews, as always.
Can you send me a link to "Darwin's Law of Evolution"?
No, because Darwin's, still standing, theory of evolution, is a hypothesis that explains the mechanics of the observed, fact of evolution. And it will continue to stand until someone comes up with a better model that explains the observed facts of evolution and then THAT would become the new theory of evolution. If you hurry and come up with a better explanation, it could be Cinco-X's theory of evolution. However, your grasp of the scientific method, leads me to believe that is not likely.
Did you know that Newton's "Law" of Gravity was disproven, and modified by Einstein's Theory of relativity, and that theory itself has shown to be lacking? And yet any two objects of substantial mass and proximity, still tend to attract. But you can go test weather gravity is a fact, or not, it by jumping off a bridge, any time you like.
Science, by it's nature proposes theories, to explain observed facts in order to predict future behavior. Law/Theory is mostly semantics.
Noob, you're right, but the company is bullish on the price of gold. If they buy back their hedges now and the price rises they probably wil make more money. So that's what they are doing. As you say, if they are wrong they will make less money. Also, if their cost of production is near the present price, they would probably be less inclined to gamble on the price rise.
One OT comment: sometimes miners have escalating wage provisions in their contracts if the price of gold rises. If so, company profits may be less than you would otherwise expect.
I should mention that I did some commercial hedging when I was a retail broker years ago(think General Sherman and Atlanta...), but now do futures spreads.
I should mention that I did some commercial hedging when I was a retail broker years ago(think General Sherman and Atlanta...), but now do futures spreads.
Thanks for the comment, traderwalt, appreciated. I think we're both in the same place; I just didn't know if there was something that made hedging gold any different than hedging wheat, or corn. It appears the principles are pretty much the same, which helps my understanding of Barrick's decision.
Although I don't necessarily think I agree with it. It still seems to be a big gamble in my mind.
Related to that, an alternative explanation would be that this story is only partially accurate, and the $5.4 billion is not designed to completely end hedging, but to somehow replace delivery contracts with some sort of option strategy that protects their cost of production but exposes them to some additional market upside. But I haven't read that anywhere.
Noob, just for the record, I was commenting generally. I don't know anything, I mean, anything about any particular company's hedging strategy, or business plan or anything else about them.
Noob, just for the record, I was commenting generally. I don't know anything, I mean, anything about any particular company's hedging strategy, or business plan or anything else about them.
Me as well, traderwalt! It's what we do here: hypothesize about private rationales for publicly-observable behaviour. I would never expect a Barrick exec to chime in with his or her reasoning, but you never know who might be reading CR and have had similar experiences with another company in another life...
Nemo lives, I hope.
Ski jumps also stop falling off as quickly ... at a point right before the edge.
Sometimes they even turn up a bit first.
Just one more hit on the Dow 10k bong pipe and I promise I will stop.
Get out of the markets, Ben!
Though this quarter’s Market Tightness Index is improved compared to last quarter, it still indicates higher vacancies and lower rents.
Gregg Easterbrook would advise Mr. Obrinsky to store this phrase in his AutoText feature to facilitate its copy-and-pasting into NMHC press releases for the foreseeable future.
mook
so you can fall futher
One little bit of local color on apartments:
I now have one vacancy and another one coming (notice given). Interestingly, both tenants are moving up to larger, more expensive places.
So now I get to find out what the market looks like for 1/1s locally.
poic wrote:
Like dude, this is sooooo cool. I see green-shoot man.
Energyecon, your chart rocks. Any chance you could add those two little comment boxes again, before I shamelessly forward it to a bunch of colleagues? It was very helpful to see where May and August were on that ugly line.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
YouTube - Feeling Groovy by Paul Simon and Art Garfunkel
He already sliced the cars he has and sold what parts he could. Granted the engine and transmission is toast and only worth anything as scrap. Maybe this sector could use some tightening of their inventory management procedures, but I think they just expected to gut the car for the secondary market and sell the scrap to China. Now, no one is repairing their cars and China isn't buying scrap. D'oh.
sm_landlord wrote:
My wishful thought for the day:
Wouldn't it be great if all signed apt. lease contracts had to be published (web and/or newspaper) with enough info so that we didn't have to guess at HOW MUCH the landlords are inflating their asking prices above what they have already signed up for? Rent negotiations are tough when the renter has no data (but the owners do) and the owners lie like unfaithful spouces (or the MSM/Fed/Treasury).
Is occupancy decline like a heart rate decline? Going from 90 beats/min -> 60 beats/min is bad, but in this analogy, it is a good thing that it is now only falling from 60 beats/min -> 50 beats/min.?
The data looks worse on the QoQ charts. Bet those boxes will be farther apart too.
Mike,
A reply for you got
Comment by energyecon from thread 'Hotel RevPAR Off 14 Percent'
JimPortlandOR wrote:
In my city, all actual rents are published by the city on their web site. It's part of the rent control regime.
I don't know how much delay there is, but I have to file within a short period of time after renting out a unit.
There, I Fixed It: Epic Kludges + Jury Rigs
pretty funny, though OT
Michele Bachmann is 'far more dangerous...' - crazyv
-Not a fan of Republicans due to Bush-Cheney fiasco but on what policy positions is Bachmann a nazi?
*questioned Iraq troop surge
*opponent of Federal bailout programs
*supports nuclear strike on Iran as an option
*against public option
*opposes minimum wage increases
Is it this one?
*against same sex marriage
The government herding people into being homeowners should take care of any improvement.
NotARealMerican-
comment re "Good Germans."
Available on DVD, the film "The Nasty Girl." Highly recommended.
merchants of fear
it would be against her support of nuclear strike on iran as an option
dont know it would be against same sex marriage.
Yancey, could you elaborate a bit more on why you don't think it would be called a 'hedge' in Barrick's case? I'm dense today...
Mel (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 2:10 pm
I had family survive--there were no Germans--Austrians --that didn't know the truth by 1940--none. They were very happy to steal Jews' property and to round them up for capture. Remember, after the war, they didn't give this loot back for some 25 years. Also, all Europeans realized what, and why it was going on. The death of Jews was not the reason for any country to go to war--but the elimination of them was still a goal after the war. Hence, the survivors were sent packing to Israel--without money or acceptance--and refused permission to return to their former property. History gets revised--and distorted--I believe the people with numbers on their arms. Final rant--no air force deemed it prudent to bomb the rail lines leading to the "camps." The fucking pigs went along with the slaughter.
OK, I'll give the rise to people taking advantage of one of two things: The homeowner buyer credit and/or better offerings elsewhere in rentals. But again I think the first time homebuyer credit occludes the real story which is job losses that continue to remain ugly despite the rosy GDP report today that borders on pathological lying territory (before it was just selective truth telling).
The media is doing just a horrible, horrible job reporting about the millions unemployed, where they are and how they are coping. That is the story behind these numbers and as we saw today with the UE numbers, it isn't improving.
Without fancy charts, derivative calculus, one can derive the said truth from congressional spaghetti throwing. If there is recovery and we are out of recession, then why must we continue and expand a homebuyer tax credit to include the 'move up crowd'. eh? If the economy is expanding then why are the UE numbers still over 500K week over week over week over week with more and more falling off the rolls as their benefits run out.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure it out even without the inside information, a degree in economics or GS telling us how its is. This is nothing more than candy/sugar high for the stock market which, after all, is the US economy and totally representative of We da people.
/end rant.
Rep. Brad Sherman, Democrat of CA, said the new 'systemic risk' administration plan would be the 'greatest transfer of money from the U.S. Treasury to Wall St. in U.S. history' and institutionalize Too Big To Fail with 'permanent unlimited bailout authority.' (NY Times)
Nightstand Cowboy only got 1 night's rest. There's a special DOW 10K booster button on it that might get tripped again this week.
gabyjan,
Yes the 'nuclear strike on Iran' qualifies as 'insane'.
Thanks energyecon,
I caught that - I typically hang around too long in pigged threads...
cinco, that site is the
definitely be passing that one along...
Folks are being fiscally raptured out of their domiciles, but where'd they go?
merchants of fear wrote:
I don't know about Nazi, but she does make for some fun quotes:
noob goldberg wrote:
Was this quote an answer to a question, or just random rambling?
Ok, never mind. I get it now. She's an idiot. I had to read it a few time. Never heard of her before today.
energyecon wrote:
Glad'ja like it-
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
It was from a completely partisan website called dumpbachmann.blogspot.com
I got no horse in this race, so I just like to throw grenades and watch the carnage.
noob
thread about hedging
I left a comment for you at the end of the
Just more of his Satanic Babbling (TM)
noob,
yeah she's apparently not buying darwinian 'theory'...her proposed 'controversial' evolutionary chain-of-events is interesting...donkey to human being...maybe democrats
noob goldberg wrote:
Of course you DO! Everybody can bet on the horses!
A couple of mysterians are showing up here later on today. Both college grads, one Ivy League degree-no jobs-big student loan bills-1 lhassa apso.
sdtfs,
Is opposition to Federal bailout programs 'Satanic babbling'?
noob goldberg wrote:
Of course, she's correct about the lack of direct evidence; we can only "infer" the origin of the species from the fossil record. This is still the case despite the advances in DNA technology, etc. Evolution is still classified as a theory.
Full disclosure: I do not believe in Creationism or Intelligent Design, and also feel that Evolution or some variant of it is probably correct. I'm simply stating the fact that Evolution has not been "proved" once and for all, and is still a theory.
To: FEDGov
** Top Secret **
Operation "Screw the Shorts" commenced at 8:30am.
GDP bunker buster took out main resistance groups.
Wire-traffic on CR indicates pockets of resistance in flyover country as well as a hot-spot somewhere up North in Canada.
Pomo drones on stand-by for your orders.
Nice spike in bond yields today. Look out below
Do you agree the world/universe is billions of years old--and that is not "still a theory?"
merchants of fear wrote:
That's the problem with Nazies. They ruined a perfectly good macho symbol AND the word "Fascist", that describes a human "ism" that is the most common political structure on the planet - worship of nobility. Now everybody has to stumble around trying to figure out ANOTHER word to use for "peasants that worship the powerful", or "peasants that worship those that already have the power", or "peasants that worship the worthy".
Jeezzz, Nazies: I hate those guys!
poic wrote:
LOL; Two days of "right sizing" blown away with a single round.
Mike in Long Island wrote:
I should have clarified, I recognize how hedging works. What I was asking was why would they go through the $5.4 billion expense of buying out their delivery contracts unless they thought it would help them benefit from a future run-up in price? What is their long-term price target?
I guess what I'm saying is, they just when through the expense to allow themselves to sell on the spot market. If the price starts falling, when do they start re-establishing the hedges? When gold is $900? $800? Whatever level their hedging program will kick back in at is the amount they are going to lose in addition to the $5.4 billion bath they just took.
My point is that unless they're forecasting
to hit $1500 or something even higher, this could be a very expensive way of shutting the barn door after the horses are long gone.
nar
how bout suck ups?
gabyjan wrote:
Needs the "ism" extension tho. Suckism? I donno.
Cinco-X wrote:
I can't believe my grenade hit Cinco. Sorry dude, I should have watched where I was throwing.
suckupism
poic wrote:
Seriously if you are trading in this market, never short going into a POMO. All that liquidity has to go somewhere and that "somewhere" is into equities--or a large chunk of it.
NaRm,
The 'peasants' worship celebrities and star atheletes...
Make that athletes or sports stars...media provides the images of worship...escapism is better for most than political debate
merchants of fear
the "peasants(except gabyjan)" worship celebrities and star atheletes....there fixed it for you.
"Final rant--no air force deemed it prudent to bomb the rail lines leading to the "camps." "
FWIW, trains especially locomotives were considered high value targets and were high on the list of "targets of opportunity".
Rail lines were very difficult to bomb with the degree of accuracy of the day, and usually resulted in little or no damage that was often easily repairable.
Taking out a locomotive had a bigger long term consequence.
If it was known the train wasn't carrying POW's, once the locomotive was taken out the train was strafed to destroy arms and equipment.
But IMHO we could have and should have done more than what we did, but those decisions were made with limited information and with limited resources to act with.
merchants of fear wrote:
Yeah. very true. A fascist peasants and a socialist peasant would worship THEIR nobility (and both celebrities and athletes). Very true. So, I guess I'm complaining about the loss of the word that describes a society run by corporate nobility (the Mussolini Fascism thing) and the peasants that worship them.
Squid-ism
I'm a peasant under glass, getting served at a dinner for GS execs. I don't worship or believe so perhaps one of my bones will adhere to the larynx of one of the eaters of the dead. A girl can dream.
The allies were not ignorant--they had many spies behind enemy lines. BTW, no resistance force sabotaged those rail lines either.
Yep, so that means anything goes! It's a even battle on the plains of rationality.
dumberisn
White House already attacking this mornings AP report on over counting of stimulus jobs.
"Our twenty-day review wraps up today and we can say with confidence that the full set of reports going up tomorrow – corrected versions of the reports posted on October 15th, and many more new reports being posted for the first time now -- are far sharper than the initial ones you saw two weeks ago. In fact, our review process had already caught four out of five items that AP's misleading story cites as “over-counting” jobs. With every review of the reports, with every call to the person filing them to confirm them, the information has gotten better and better – and we are looking forward to their public posting tomorrow. It will be a historic moment for government transparency"
The White House Blog | The White House
"Seriously if you are trading in this market, never short going into a POMO. All that liquidity has to go somewhere and that "somewhere" is into equities--or a large chunk of it."
I haven't traded this market for months now. Sitting on 3 lonely short positions for months and long ky as a hedge.
I just saw that Paul Tudor Jones made some positive remarks on gold: Gold Price Blog: Intra-day Gold Price News.
He's one of many high profile fund managers to speak publicly of his bullish views on the gold price and gold mining companies. I wonder if anyone has access to his fund letters or further commentary.
The hoi calamaroi
noob goldberg wrote:
Gotcha.
I'd check to see if the CEO's nephew is a commodities broker looking to earn the commish on their hedge short covering trade.
well so much for the bonds spiked look out below warning
One of the arms of the squid wants to get longer...
Breitbart.tv » Recession Hits the Porn Industry
I'm really shocked....no , really
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Well, there's dumbass peasants and just-peasants. The dumbasses are the believers in THEIR nobility and keep voting for THEIR party over and over and over and over again, expecting things will be different next time (like sports fans).
You're just-a-peasant.
jturner wrote:
Why do you keep spamming here? No one is going to visit your site.
Instead of parroting, why don't you let us know what original insights you have into the market, the price of
, and what the hell we could replace the word 'fascist' with?
Paranoia commercial break-
'Buy your gold where I buy mine.'
black dog wrote:
poic wrote:
Can I call in a strike on myself? In a fit of insanity I just opened a GS short.
'Buy your gold where I buy mine.'
My parrot buys his from Long John ---- hey wait!
" Pomo drones on stand-by for your orders.
Can I call in a strike on myself? In a fit of insanity I just opened a GS short. "
No need. They look onto tin-foil hats by default.
Edmunds predicts auto sales over 10million for Oct.
October Is Year's Best Non-Clunker Month for Car Sales, Edmunds.com Forecasts - Auto Observer
Good news, unless you recall that during the bubble years, sales were 15-16 million annually.
Mike in Long Island wrote:
I have a feeling it's even less logical than that. I figure they probably started the process of developing a white paper that discussed the method of evaluating the option of initiating a study on how they could take advantage of the current (2007) run-up in gold prices. And after three consultants submitted bids, which had to be vetted, and then approved. And after the intern, his boss, her boss, the VP of research, the VP of administration, the CFO, and then the CEO all signed off, it went to the board for discussion. That whole process finally finished last week.
The capacity of systems evolves to match demand. Anything else would be "inefficient." Economic systems have very high inertia. Any rapid change in the demand is going to stress the system, possibly to the breaking point.
Congress often mandates step or impulse-function changes in demand, with either ignorance or the expectation that systems are elastic enough to respond.
It shouldn't be surprising when they can't.
noob goldberg wrote:
No prob. Being anal retentive is sorta a prerequisite for being an engineer. Sometimes I just can't help myself
Ladies & Gentlemen, this is your captain speaking...
We have unexpectedly run out of gas mid-air, and I was wondering if anybody brought some with them in their 1 ounce carry-on allowance?
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Well......you're obviously not from the PPT are you -
hey noob, relax mister, no need to use foul language. I have posted stories from several sites, and shared my ideas on several things. and if you actually took the time to check out some of the things I've posted you would know this instead of trying to attack me.
Thinking about Michele Bachman made me wonder why the Right & Far Right are getting so paranoid...it's the crashing economy for Main St. and all the gold commercials...and I think it was/is the War On Terror and Islamophobia where the Right(and Left) media works up fear in the population to promote and implement War policies...
picosec wrote:
In all honesty, the salvage yard guy was rather stupid to commit to buying so much scrap metal from multiple dealerships. It doesn't take too much foresight to realize that cars across the country were going to be scrapped at the exact same time, and even if demand hadn't slowed down, you were talking a one time glut that would take a while to process. Apparently, he thought it was going to be a quick flip, easy cash deal, and instead, when everyone is doing the same thing, the value of said thing goes through the floor.
.
Hoocoodanode?
Meant Bachmann...German?
Cinco-X wrote:
Surely you jest...
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 1:40 pm
merchants of fear wrote:
The 'peasants' worship celebrities and star athletes...
Yeah. very true. A fascist peasants and a socialist peasant would worship THEIR nobility (and both celebrities and athletes). Very true. So, I guess I'm complaining about the loss of the word that describes a society run by corporate nobility (the Mussolini Fascism thing) and the peasants that worship them.
Huxley's "scientific dictatorship"? I guess we can just call it reality.
,rads,
As goes scrap metal prices, so goes the nation...
Michelle Bachmann was on a rant a couple weeks ago about school health clinics being "sex clinics" where your children will be wisked away and given forced abortions while masturbating to gay porn...or some such nonsense. She's a complete loon and one has to wonder how she managed to get elected.
Got a flyer today from a payday loan store that's having its grand opening here in the 'hood--it has a coupon for "25% off your first payment" and there's "no credit check." Out of curiosity I googled them and found this....
I have 8 loans at current:
I guess I'm out of touch--do people really have loans out at a half dozen different payday loan stores for $500 or so each? Doesn't seem like a viable long term plan and I doubt that this is just somebody trying to get themselves through a short-term rough patch (although they may have thought so when they started).
I'd love to get the APR on one of these, but I'd have to give them an e-mail address and I'm not even willing to give up my yahoo account for it. Bad enough to be on their slow-mail list....
I know what you're saying and I agree to some extent; however, evolution (genetic mutation and natural selection) is a theory that describes the factual process by which organisms change and adapt to their surroundings. This is analogous to the theory of General Relativity which describes the factual process of gravity. The theories might change or even be thrown out completely, but the factual processes they attempt to explain are still facts.
No, they are quite serious. Of course gravity is only a "theory" as well. You can defy it at your own risk though
"Huxley's "scientific dictatorship"? I guess we can just call it reality."
Rule by scientists? Where?
poic
I ordered the attack last night, was surprised by how high they reported prelim GDP though.
I didn't think they would set the hurdle for Q4 so high by imputing in the simplest way possible the normal SA inventory change onto C4C time. Inventory alone ought to subtract 2.4% from gdp growth after revisions, but then again they overstated imports as well. I stick by 2.61% Q3 gdp.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Actually, it may help the rest of us if those folks try to defy the Theory of Gravity. Once they can do it, I'll grant 'em permission to defy the Theory of Evolution too.
The APR @ a payday loan place in Hurricane, Utah, was 305%
I knew it was a Canadian that did this!
Comrade Kristina wrote:
I would argue that gravity and evolution are observed facts. The theories, are yet to be disproved explanations, of how and why those facts work.
Even Newton's Laws of Motion are still theories. It doesn't mean they do not perfectly (or nearly perfectly) describe how bodies behave when subjected to a force (or forces).
My lungs are killing me. I have to huff so deeply on the Dow 10k bong to get any feeling of a high right now. Bernanke put some pretty rotten weed in there.
poic
but of course, how else could we tease oil to $100 per barrel before unleashing the greatest oversupply in history
An earlier wave of Right 'paranoia' came during the Savings and Loan collapse where many farms were going under...
jturner wrote:
Fair enough...
My mistake, obviously. Sorry to have misinterpreted your intentions.
Thanks, that's about what I figured.
Whatever contribution this guy is making to PCE, it's short-lived.
Reminds me of something I saw in Knoxville a couple of years ago--a payday loan store had a sign in front that said "your first loan free." It's like giving away heroin--they know once you get started you'll never be able to stop.
pavel.chichikov (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 2:10 pm
"Huxley's "scientific dictatorship"? I guess we can just call it reality."
Rule by scientists? Where?
The future, pavel. And the past. At the top of any major political campaigns, and deep in the think-tanks. The rest is window-dressing and pageantry.
TCA
Newton's Laws do accurately describe the physics. They are just incomplete for cases of extreme scale. Imprecise in some cases perhaps, but they are accurate.
merchants of fear wrote:
Unfortunately, the Right might be the only ones capable of changing things. It wouldn't be for the better (imo), but it would be "change" you can really SEE (as oppose to believing in).
The
gets the actual weed.
You just get seeds and stems.
I think it's obvious that wall street loves the very puublic Pelosi plan (VPPP). Keep em coming Nancy. We love you!
"I would argue that gravity and evolution are observed facts. "
There are observed phenomena called 'gravity' and 'evolution.' I would not be surprised if enfolding theories of both were still to come. I just read yesterday about some cosmological observations which seem to present some anomalies in General Relativity.
Any of you grouchy bears get queasy when you see the advertisements on CNBC for the SuperFund investments ? I mean, what planet do the boneheads that run that operation live on ? Where I live Superfund == TOXIC WASTE.
Amazing.
oh, sooooo close to 10k.
There is nothing wrong with the DJIA. Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are controlling transmission. If we wish to make it louder, we will bring up the volume. If we wish to make it softer, we will tune it to a whisper. We will control the horizontal. We will control the vertical. We can roll the image, make it flutter. We can change the focus to a soft blur or sharpen it to crystal clarity. For the next hour, sit quietly and we will control all that you see and hear. We repeat: there is nothing wrong with your internet. You are about to participate in a great adventure. You are about to experience the awe and mystery which reaches from the inner mind to... The Wall*Street Limits.
RockyR wrote:
I can see 10K from my house.
oh, sooooo close to 10k.
got to save some ammunition for tomorrow...
RockyR wrote:
Who knew POMO gave the DOW MOMO to which the plebes yelled "NONO!" and the aristocrats cheering "GOGO!"?
"The future, pavel. And the past."
That's like Lewis Carroll's ' jam every other day - yesterday and tomorrow.
jturner: post something original or interesting or go away. You may be the first to go on my "ignore" [intentionally]
The older and more cynical I get, the more I see us as some kind of cosmic joke, and/or science project of super intelligent aliens.
I cannot believe that we're alone (discounting the oil floating around the lens of the NASA uv camera!)
You've got seeds?
Then you're not quite down to your last bullet.
noob goldberg wrote:
And you are probably not far from the truth...
"I can see 10K from my house. "
I got a hot stock tip. Go long symbol PALIN.
noob, isn't it convenient how you left out these as well. quit wasting your time with this stuff:
Comment by jturner from thread 'New Home Sales Decrease in September'
Comment by jturner from thread 'House Prices: Stress Test and Price-to-Rent'
Comment by jturner from thread 'AIA: Architectural Billings Index Shows Contraction'
Bloomberg: FDIC Failed to Limit CRE Loans | Hoocoodanode?
Comment by jturner from thread 'Bank of America Still Struggling'
Comment by jturner from thread 'Retail Sales Decrease in September'
pavel.chichikov wrote:
You can disprove general relativity in any number of quick thought experiments. It isn't universal relativity after all.
Besides; Dow 10k. Reality denied. It's right there in front of us.
poic wrote:
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
And by "scientist" doesn't necessarily mean a dude in a white over-coat. Some people are born knowing how to manipulate dumbasses. If you – as a dumbass manipulator - can give a good prediction of the future behavior of your control-dumbass-group, that would make one a scientist. All science is supposed to be is a way of predicting the future with repeatable experiments.
Faux News is just a laboratory then.
As are any liberal-progressive-socialist-democratic websites or conservative-fascist-rightwingnut-republican website with its control-group of dumbasses.
Are we down to defending your anonymous blog life now?
Yes. Which is why I stated "nearly perfectly". Relativistic effects are usually ignored.
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 2:22 pm
If you – as a dumbass manipulator - can give a good prediction of the future behavior of your control-dumbass-group, that would make one a scientist. All science is supposed to be is a way of predicting the future with repeatable experiments.
+1. It's not pleasant to think about, but it's as close as I've been able to get to the truth.
edit: and when behaviors arise that make things unpredictable... you try to re-condition that behavior to something you CAN predict.
The older and more cynical I get, the more I see us as some kind of cosmic joke, and/or science project of super intelligent aliens."
Who was it who thought that we are 'property'? He was a collector of anomalies, and I can't remember his name.
"I cannot believe that we're alone"
I don't think we are.
uhoh. KD shut his site down. No comments for a few days. Got sick of the trashing going back and forth.
jturner wrote:
No, it wasn't done for convenience, it was a deliberate attempt at deceiving all of the readers here and painting you as single-minded gold bug.
This is probably self-evident by now, but I'm not a very nice person.
TCA
you edited your post, I replied to one that said Newton's theories were explicitly not accurate. I don't mind that you corrected yourself, but I would like it if you disclosed that in the context of trying to correct my correction
Hence, the survivors were sent packing to Israel--without money or acceptance--and refused permission to return to their former property.
That issue has to do with property rights & title to real property. Although I'm not excusing or rationalizing the behavior of Austria or Germany in any way. Two of my mother's close relatives were not able to obtain visas to anywhere accepting Jewish people before the war started (and the borders closed, making departure much more difficult). One of them had owned a home in Baden, a small town not far from Vienna. That house was apparently sold (by whom I'm not sure) to someone. After the war, my mother's parents were given an opportunity to get the house--but they would've had to pay whatever the purchasers had paid. They declined. Don't know where the right & wrong of that situation lies. Reparations payment ($$ payment, etc.) & litigation concerning that continues.
Don't forget that other nations failed to help --just as they fail to help other persecuted people today. One of the problems Jews (or anyone else trying to leave Naziland or occupied territories) had was finding a nation-state that would let them enter legally. In the US, only the rich/famous got asylum, everyone else (including my mother & her family) had to have a sponsor, and even then, the State Dept. took so long to process applications that many people who did have sponsors died in the camps or were shot, gassed, whatever, anyway.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Like housing prices going, down?
The 'law of gravity' is just another 'theory' to be refuted as it has been...nothing is certain in science or the scientific method...so 'evolution' is game for challenges...in 'junk science' especially today's scientific knowledge based on repeated test evidence can simply become Myth tommorrow with media memes...
Imagine the possibility of an entire universe chock full of superintelligent, technologically-advanced species that make
look like schoolboys.
No wonder we are conditioned to relegate aliens to myth.
Blackhalo (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 2:28 pm
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
you try to re-condition that behavior to something you CAN predict.
Like housing prices going, down?
Maybe. All that matters is forcing predictability. Even if the behaviors are terrible. You can make money off that.
Today's market was brought to you by 'Hook, Line and Sinker.'
Now back to your regularly scheduled program
You've got seeds?
Then you're not quite down to your last bullet.
True enough.... you're not really desperate until you're scraping resin and smoking that.
Or so I've heard.
azurite,
correct - For example, who wants to help the Palestinians today?
EHP, I never edited that post. The "nearly perfectly" statement was always there. Perhaps you missed it before, but it was there.
shill
It's to be expected. This bounce will run its course over 2-3 weeks. At which point maybe yields are edging higher, then all the commodities and emerging markets lead the way down which means USD up, which means US markets down
did somebody mention seeds? Mustard seeds?
TCA
maybe I'm dreaming then, I'll retract my statement and take your word for it
"I don't think we are."
Thanks Pavel.
http://www.simulation-argument.com/
"Damnit!! Every time we run the simulation, the
wins!! Stupid humans."
I donno. If something is a "theory" or not doesn't matter. What matters is whether the "theory" can make predictions (reasonably) and can handle observations of past phenomena (reasonably).
I define reasonably as when there are "enough" other people - people that sound rational to me - that agree on the observations.
The more people that agree, the less I think of it as "a theory".
I'd just like to note that this whole 'evolution is just a theory' thing going on in this thread? Yeah, it's my fault.
Between that and pushing around poor jturner, I should really just give up for the day.
EHP, TCA's non-editing is verifiable from the time stamp on the post and the one that follows it. FWIW.
KD got a cease & desist from the squid. (Just kidding.)
The media is unemployed.
No problem. It's certainly not important. My original reply was going to include a form of the 2nd law which takes a change of mass into consideration but then I thought better of it.
Where's the volume???
Volume party of 5 your table is ready! Volume party of 5 your table is ready.
We should send him a free voucher for
at Olive Garden.
It doesn't match yesterday but NYSE volume isn't bad by recent standards--it's the fourth biggest day of October.
noob goldberg wrote:
I'm starting to think EVERYTHING is your fault....
You might be Moral Hazards himself ! Or, one of the three treasury boyz.
KD shut posting down soon after it was posted that various threads had degenerated into
China is fked
No the US is fked
Race baiting masquerading as joking
etc...
TCA, sportsfan
I genuinely retract the statement. In my mind I read the word accurate. Maybe it's a sign of needing some more coffee than anything else. I shouldn't have been such a dink in the first place over specific wording of a tangential topic. edit: changed coffee more to more coffee, lol
rich (profile) wrote on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 2:38 pm
The media is doing just a horrible, horrible job reporting about the millions unemployed, where they are and how they are coping.
The media is unemployed.
So much of news is regurgitated from a centralized core of producers even at the local level. Macroeconomic stats have nothing J6P can relate to or is interested in. Unemployment needs to be seen at the local, tangible level and all the news seems interested in is cherry-picking a few human interest stories that reach viewers but simultaneously assure them that, hey, at least that isn't me.
NaRm,
Scientific debate...For example, used to be a skyscraper on fire wouldn't collapse or if it did, it wouldn't be at the speed of gravity. Now all those assumptions based on time-tested theories is bunk...nothing is certain anymore in science...so maybe Creationism has a shot...
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Don't you have faith to believe someone did?
This bounce will run its course over 2-3 weeks
If gas continues the path of the last two weeks (up 24 cents locally) it will be another ding in xmas sales.
noob goldberg wrote:
How about those discolored beans?
merchants of fear wrote:
I'd still rather live in an engineered built building as opposed to a faith-based one. (a monty-python skit - again).
There are many millions of persecuted groups of people around the world.
A very small percentage are uniformly rounded up, gassed, shot, tortured, raped and forced to perform slave labor.
Not all genocides are identical. Why do you bring up the Palestinians in this context?
had lunch at the Olive Garden today. was dead, so i was in and out in 25 minutes. of course, I was at the OG because the PF Chang's across the street had a 20-minute wait...
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Whoa, you sound like my wife. Maybe you are my wife...uh, hi honey, what are you doing on CR?
noob goldberg wrote:
Well, I'm not. But don't forget the milk!
noob goldberg wrote:
Well, we are talking to Not a REAL 'merican. Does she have dual-citizenship?
KD shut posting down soon after it was posted that various threads had degenerated into
Now, it's his printing press, so he can do what he wants, but......
KD shutting something down for being too obnoxious is funny.
yagij wrote:
Eat all you want, but there's no way I'm shipping those ugly-assed beans halfway around the world for you. We have standards, you know.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
I'm kind of fond of modern antibiotics, developed to deal with the evolved pathogens, that are now penicillin resistant...
Of course one could always attempt to pray away modern TB.
I heard several people this morning on financial news say, "Why is the dollar down if things are turning around and GDP is up?"
The answer is that it is how GDP is up that is driving the dollar down. The more we have to borrow to make GDP positive, the worse it is for the dollar, our debt and interest on debt and our ability to keep getting loans.
Scientific debate...For example, used to be a skyscraper on fire wouldn't collapse or if it did, it wouldn't be at the speed of gravity. Now all those assumptions based on time-tested theories is bunk...nothing is certain anymore in science...so maybe Creationism has a shot...
Must resist...
I say go for it
TCA wrote:
Yes, that is advisable.
noob goldberg wrote:
Why not? How else are you going to funnel revenue to your energy companies knowing that the use of oil and gasoline are on the decline? Seems like a win-win in paying to ship the beans to hungry people. Farms get paid. Energy companies get paid. Logistic companies get paid. Congresscritters/PMs get paid.
.
Those tar sands need support too, eh?
shill wrote:
HA!!!! And we wonder why congress is like it is...
shill wrote:
What is GDP at when measured in gold or oil vs. dollars?
yagij wrote:
But think of the poor buyers. I don't care how hungry they are, who in their right mind would eat ugly discoloured beans?
It's inhumane, like making them wear donated clothes made of crushed velvet, and I'll have no part of it.
Blackhalo (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/29/2009 - 2:47 pm
Of course one could always attempt to pray away modern TB.
Just pray it hits an enemy tribe instead of you. Doubly efficient use of prayer.
To: FedGov
** Top Secret **
Operation Dow 10k has encountered some resistance.
We have located resistance fighters by triangulating via tin-foil hats.
Request permission to start operation "Rip out bear entrails".
CIT just did (another) belly-flop. somebody must have gotten a preview of the bondholder vote due a midnight. somehow i don't think the Nov 3 bonds are getting repaid at par either way,,,
Broken Record: how about in a weighted basket of all liquid tangibles. There is no perfect index, but you still aim to approach perfection.
"Broken Record: how about in a weighted basket of all liquid tangibles. There is no perfect index, but you still aim to approach perfection."
I'm using martian rocks in my calculations. They're pretty stable in price over the centuries so a good metric.
whatever your local price was last April/May is where gasoline needs to be today to keep up where the spot price of crude oil
oil will be down by December, but sales were never going to be great to begin with. one of those lose-lose situations
Basel Too wrote:
Great, let me guess who the lender of last resort is...
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
It just seems absurd to me to say that GDP (in dollars) is up, when the dollar is down.
COME ON 10K.
ONE TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
" What is GDP at when measured in gold or oil vs. dollars?
Broken Record: how about in a weighted basket of all liquid tangibles. There is no perfect index, but you still aim to approach perfection. "
For the purpose of what GDP is being used for which is smoke and mirrors to increase consumer confidence it's immaterial what GDP is versus gold, oil, wheat etc..
J6P doesn't care about anything other than GDP is going up = good, 401k going up = good. And the government knows that.
1 currency now,
Why do I mention Palestinians?
In azurite's comments she mentioned...
*property rights
*occupied territories
*persecuted people
I could say mention other groups but Palestinians came to mind in this context in today's events.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Out of curiousity, EHP, what's your gas price doing in Van? Ontario is terrible; price increases are seriously out-pacing the run-up in both oil and the dollar, which makes my
; It was 101.2/litre a couple days ago.
My definition of adequate liquidity to warrant inclusion in the 1 world index is currently anything that trades more often on Earth than Martian rocks.
Your turn to perfect it.
Eric wrote:
Will they be throwing 10K, 3.0 hats out at the exchange?
" COME ON 10K.
ONE TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! "
Bernanke says "1T bet it all on red".
2.28 freaking cents. AUDUSD .89 -> .91
Bucky getting hammered against AUD. Clearly the boat is rocking to port, and all the money is flowing into stocks. Mid November, we will rock to s'board, and the money will flow back to USD and T's.
So sickening.
noob goldberg wrote:
Can't we just color 'em like we do with beef or salmon?
poic wrote:
As long as he does not notice gas, big screens, movie tickets and food going up faster? And, oh, yeah, which way are those wages headed?
Bernanke says "1T bet it all on red".
I must confess that I only got rid of half my SRS position a few weeks ago.
My short CRE, long KY synthetic index is looking good right now.
Jonathan wrote:
When I used to drive tanker trucks I could always tell which ones had a wide open tank and which ones had good baffles.
What this market needs are some good liquidity baffles to keep this sloshing from getting out of hand.
yagij wrote:
The people, the clothes, or the beans?
"some good liquidity baffles "
So that's what American J6P is called now.
noob goldberg wrote:
I was thinking more along the lines of a match.
A couple of comments on hedging. The cost of production is very important to a futures hedger. Even if a company loses money on the hedge( buying back a short position at a price higher than the price at which the futures was originally sold), the company may still make money if the cost of goods sold is higher than the cost of production plus the loss on the hedge. Many hedgers run into trouble if the price of the futures sale is below the cost of production because the producer is locking in a loss. However sometimes it better to lock in a small loss than not hedge and incur a large loss if prices continue to drop.
My WAG is that the gold producer is buying back his hedges for some of the following reasons: The short hedges have been pretty consistantly losing money. The cost of production is substantially below the present cash price so that the company will still make adaquate profits even if the price of gold drops somewhat from the present price. The company is bullish on the future price if gold.
It will be real interesting when J6P opens his quarterly statement and discovers that a 70% increase in his account doesn't come close to backfilling the 50% decrease from previous quarters. It might even arrive at the same time he finds out his ARM is adjusting upward. You know, right about when the X-mas bills show up in the stack with the new property tax rate notice.
noob goldberg wrote:
Start with the beans, then the clothes if necessary. Everyone knows that "whitey is alrighty"
Looks like I need a Gold Star going forward on tickerforum if I want to do any China bashing.
Sigh... Race baiting used to be free on that site. Now that it's been pointed out there's race baiting going on KD starts charging for it.
I suspect a transaction tax might help. AKA Tobin tax.
Joseph Stiglitz calls for Tobin tax on all financial trading transactions - Telegraph
Or we could just continue to allow the
to churn worthless liquidity into valuable commissions and bonuses.
I currency now,
As you said there are many more atrocities in history...Ukranian genocide 1932-33, Armenian genocide 1915-16, Cambodian genocide, Vietnamese genocide...but OT here.
"It will be real interesting when J6P opens his quarterly statement and discovers that a 70% increase in his account doesn't come close to backfilling the 50% decrease from previous quarters."
Dawg, you're thinking too logically.
Here's all I hear. "My 401K is up"
Up over what? "Just up"
Rob Dawg wrote:
And the pink slip? Is January not the worst month historically for layoffs? But of course UE will be down once all those slackers from last year get kicked off the back end.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Darkness, darkness, be my Zillow.
Blackhalo wrote:
Can you send me a link to "Darwin's Law of Evolution"?
A double
How interesting.
traderwalt wrote:
This doesn't make sense to me. They're paying (if I understand their hedge correctly) market prices to buy out their contracts. So if the price of gold stays completely flat (hypothetically), it's irrelevant right now whether or not they buy out their hedges or maintain them. It's exactly the same profit.
If they buy them out and the price goes up, their margin becomes the difference between what they bought their hedges out for, say $1030, and the new price. At $1050, they made $20. If the price goes down, they lose.
I completely agree that anyone hedging has to--first and foremost--lock in a price that exceeds their cost of production. Cost of production, for a commodity producer, is the most important profitability metric.
It just looks like a giant gamble, because I would have assume their previous hedges would have locked in their selling at a price exceeding cost of production (logically) and now they've removed that protection for a 50/50 shot at making more money (or losing a bunch of money) because they're completely exposed to price movements.
Eric I'm thinking of entering the main event at Foxwoods next week. Never played a 10k. You won't hear my results here, though, as I cling to some semblance of anonymity.
Commandant Bachman made Ben and Timmy meekly swear allegiance to the almighty dollar a few months ago after Timmy told the Chinese it may be negotiable some day. There are still some crazies here who think a global hard currency which renders the money-changers impotent is talk of treason. They don't know if its Commie or pro-free market Capitalist, so they just blame the Jews, as always.
Ooh, sorry ... river is the
2.
Don't feel sorry for
, though - they took in 3x the pot in prop bets.
Saved by the
TCA wrote:
NO! Newtons "Laws" are laws, hence the name "Newtons Laws of Motion". Seriously-
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Once the can of beans have been opened, they can never be resealed.
Cinco-X wrote:
No, because Darwin's, still standing, theory of evolution, is a hypothesis that explains the mechanics of the observed, fact of evolution. And it will continue to stand until someone comes up with a better model that explains the observed facts of evolution and then THAT would become the new theory of evolution. If you hurry and come up with a better explanation, it could be Cinco-X's theory of evolution. However, your grasp of the scientific method, leads me to believe that is not likely.
Did you know that Newton's "Law" of Gravity was disproven, and modified by Einstein's Theory of relativity, and that theory itself has shown to be lacking? And yet any two objects of substantial mass and proximity, still tend to attract. But you can go test weather gravity is a fact, or not, it by jumping off a bridge, any time you like.
Science, by it's nature proposes theories, to explain observed facts in order to predict future behavior. Law/Theory is mostly semantics.
Noob, you're right, but the company is bullish on the price of gold. If they buy back their hedges now and the price rises they probably wil make more money. So that's what they are doing. As you say, if they are wrong they will make less money. Also, if their cost of production is near the present price, they would probably be less inclined to gamble on the price rise.
One OT comment: sometimes miners have escalating wage provisions in their contracts if the price of gold rises. If so, company profits may be less than you would otherwise expect.
I should mention that I did some commercial hedging when I was a retail broker years ago(think General Sherman and Atlanta...), but now do futures spreads.
traderwalt wrote:
Thanks for the comment, traderwalt, appreciated. I think we're both in the same place; I just didn't know if there was something that made hedging gold any different than hedging wheat, or corn. It appears the principles are pretty much the same, which helps my understanding of Barrick's decision.
Although I don't necessarily think I agree with it. It still seems to be a big gamble in my mind.
Agreed, unless they know something that we don't.
traderwalt wrote:
Related to that, an alternative explanation would be that this story is only partially accurate, and the $5.4 billion is not designed to completely end hedging, but to somehow replace delivery contracts with some sort of option strategy that protects their cost of production but exposes them to some additional market upside. But I haven't read that anywhere.
second that.......
I suppose I can't prove to you that the sun will come up in the east tomorrow, but hey, it's just a theory, right.....
Puhleeese........
Noob, just for the record, I was commenting generally. I don't know anything, I mean, anything about any particular company's hedging strategy, or business plan or anything else about them.
traderwalt wrote:
Me as well, traderwalt! It's what we do here: hypothesize about private rationales for publicly-observable behaviour. I would never expect a Barrick exec to chime in with his or her reasoning, but you never know who might be reading CR and have had similar experiences with another company in another life...
Thanks for the exchange!
and you tend bar????