OT: I was worried that we (the people) didn't own enough of GMAC (34.5%). good thing they're asking for at least $2.8 billion more in taxpayer cash. whew!
I've been on it for a week or two - long at 9.75. Fully expected it to hit 6's so I did not get as long as I wanted to. Oh well - this is in the gambling account.
Other than a few custom homes (you can get GREAT deals) new home construction has completely stopped in my locale. Can not compete with REO's selling for more than half off.
Here in NYC, the Department of Buildings counts 454 stalled condo construction projects...but a new report counts 601 in just half a dozen neighborhoods...including stalled sites and vacant, unsold units in newly built buildings. Lots of inventory, lots of half-built sites.
Yes, winter is slower. But with the extiontion addition of move up buyers I expect many of them will buy sooner rather than later. What I want to see with the "move up" buyers is if they will be moving up or down. In my area I can now buy a house at 1/2 of what our current mortgage is, so why not get lower payments?
With the extention you have till June 30th to close escrow, which families will like.
I'm actually thinking about it. I have great hopes that my prodigal TWM will finally come home from the wars.
Daddy's waitin'.
RWM is a short R2000 ETF that is straight short - not levered 2:1 so the downside is not as great - tradeoff being the upside is not as juicy as TWM once the market cracks.
I'm thinking of it too. But then I think of poor poic and his bloody battle with SRS, and I restrain myself.
Someone posted a great idea the other night, which is just to buy OTM options, and immediately write them off as bad trades. You could have got rich with puts on SRS...
josap: In the current environment, my bet would be down that is IF they can get a buyer for their unit. I think that will be the wrinkle. I am hopeful that families will be ale to get out of this mess with their skin, teeth and at least a little savings intact. Those high square-footage homes are gonna be a killer as I think energy prices are going to be a big deal in a 2008 redux next year, but then again, I could be all wet-I go swimming a lot.
They probably weren't aware that you can't use lawn mowers for trimming hedges, either.
If you do what I do it works just fine. I put it on its side, rev it up, and then I grab the handle and have my two-year-old grab the front wheels. He was a little scared at first, but I told him to man up and getter done.
Was aware and made money in both last year, as well as SKF. Did about two-thirds of the money in RWM and a third in TWM at that point. I'm still down in the TWM since the damned R2k didn't crack like I thought but slowly making it back.
I am thinking there will be more "move down" buyers than "move up" buyers.
After they get an ok on the new house, how many will just walk from the old higher mortgage. In areas where most people are underwater I think this will happen allot. All they need to do is submit a lease for the current underwater house. Lots of fraud opportunities with this one.
by next summer we'll have a bigger and better tax credit.
i should expand on this thought
the govt can't let the homebuyer credit lapse.
thus they extend it for now,
then they'll really extend it for next summer.
everybody knows winter is slow for home sales. so we just gotta get through until May.
Then the fireworks can really begin.
I have to admit, I'm surprised because I never knew that there was this much money in the entire world.
Pixels indeed.
OT : Someone inquired (and someone posted) about the C-S 10 (20?) compared to Gold. Below is for 2009 for CS-10 & CS-20. I've included some previous Januaries for reference. For the price of Gold, I used the price via the London Fix on the first trading day of each month.
..................CSXR.....SPCS20R
01-2000......0.355.....0.355
01-2004......0.391.....0.364
01-2007......0.346.....0.316
01-2008......0.232.....0.213
01-2009......0.181.....0.167
02-2009......0.168.....0.156
03-2009......0.162.....0.149
04-2009......0.163.....0.151
05-2009......0.171.....0.158
06-2009......0.156.....0.145
07-2009......0.166.....0.154
08-2009......0.165.....0.152
.
Below is an example of the data used to calculate January, 2009
01-2009......874.50.....157.96.....146.35
And GDP expectation is STILL +3.0% even though I've already seen news reports claiming expected is 2.5%.
I forget the current Canadian GDP expectation numbers for 2010, but they're for sure positive. And then Export Development Canada came out with a report yesterday that said that if the Canadian Dollar stays around $0.95 for an extended period we'd probably see a 3% decline in Canadian GDP. Of course, a higher dollar means cheaper shopping excursions into the USA, so most of the great unwashed are ecstatic about the current exchange rate.
OT: To Cinco. Um-the SO is experiencing a come to jesus time regarding the economy. Uh, he isn't rolling his eyes or impatient now. It was a big A change in our health care coverage that came in the snail-mail that woke him up. I then owned up to the pension stuff I knew, he was silent and sober.
i should expand on this thought
the govt can't let the homebuyer credit lapse.
True of a lot of things. They can't pull back on stimulus, they can't let interest rates rise, they can't raise taxes, they can't balance the budget....One little misstep, and it all comes crashing down. Better to wait for another administration to come a long before they let that happen.
LOL. Haven't told my boys to "man up" yet. "Suck it up", but not "man up".
In reality I'm having a hard time figuring out when to treat him like a baby and when to treat him like a little boy. Being a parent is a hell of a lot harder than becoming one.
OT: To Cinco. Um-the SO is experiencing a come to jesus time regarding the economy. Uh, he isn't rolling his eyes or impatient now. It was a big A change in our health care coverage that came in the snail-mail that woke him up. I then owned up to the pension stuff I knew, he was silent and sober.
I'd prescribe internet porn and anti-depressants. That should cheer him up
BTW, it's 10:45 EST. Is he usually "not" sober at this time
A lot of data coming out this week and next. So far the trend hasn't been too kind for the bullz.
Now that we are on the downslope of peak fiscal stimulus the next few months should be interesting.
Xmas is going to be ugly and a lot of small businesses will have no choice (cash/credit exhausted) but to throw in the towel at the beginning of the year.
OT: To Cinco. Um-the SO is experiencing a come to jesus time regarding the economy. Uh, he isn't rolling his eyes or impatient now.
This is almost identical to the experience I had with my wife. She's got an economics degree, and was not remotely charitable toward the thesis, so it was a bit of a challenge.
By the end of it, she said I wasn't being pessimistic enough.
A lot of data coming out this week and next. So far the trend hasn't been too kind for the bullz.
Yeah, the appreciation of the Yen finally stalled and is running the risk of strengthening against the USD by a full Yen. What is an exporting economy's CB gonna do if they can't keep their currency artificially weak?!
Yeah, the appreciation of the Yen finally stalled and is running the risk of strengthening against the USD by a full Yen. What is an exporting economy's CB gonna do if they can't keep their currency artificially weak?!
It's good to finally see a strong technical bounce in the USD. We should take bets on the top of INX. I'd say at least 77.50, if not 78.
Xmas sales are gonna be awful because there is more to the story than just UE. My little testimonial is going to a Rite Aid to pick up a card for someone and the xmas stuff was right next to the halloween stuff. CREEPY.
.......everyone seems surprised that mortgage fraud, insider trading, ponzi schemes, and tax fraud has increased substantially over the past 2-years - Why? The FedGov is doing it or at best allowing it to happen.........the rationale ranges from, "it must be OK" to "Screw 'em"!.......The looting has increased at ALL levels
Current house payment is 1200.00 mo. Loan is $200,000.00 Value is $160,000.00
New house is 600.00 mo. Loan is $80,000.00, Value is $96,000.00 at close of escrow and $80,000.00 a year from now. You are at 0 equity rather than -$40,000.00
When you apply for the new loan you lease out the old house. If you lease the house for $900.00 mo you are still ahead $300.00 a month.
$1200.payment - 900. rent = -300 + 600 new loan = 900. out the door rather than 1200.
BSR: And they led the way, n'est pas? Shifts on the magnitude of tectonic plates to the financial system with never-ending game changers for the schmucks just trying to keep it together. Stagnant to declining wages, yoy double-digit and unrecognized inflation, easy/cheap credit with abusive terms and overly complex/unrevealed ways to screw the participants that finally extended into Core economic engines for main street. All they while they look at you with eyes made of stone saying they didn't realize it? PUH-LEEEZE.
This is almost identical to the experience I had with my wife. She's got an economics degree, and was not remotely charitable toward the Dooooooooooooooom!!! thesis, so it was a bit of a challenge.
My wife is still in the "not remotely charitable" phase. She's all "yeah, that stuff is happening to other people", not understanding how interconnected everything is.
noob:If you do what I do it works just fine. I put it on its side, rev it up, and then I grab the handle and have my two-year-old grab the front wheels. He was a little scared at first, but I told him to man up and getter done.
I hope you've got that kid on a ladder, otherwise how do you get the higher stuff?
The only other thing I've learned so far about parenthood is that every time I realize he's acquired a new skill or reached another development level, I also realize that he's been gaming me with it for at least a week, and probably a couple of months.
For example, at 9 months old he started waking up in the middle of the night, crying. It took us over a week to figure out that he wasn't sick, or having bad dreams, but in fact had figured out that crying brought daddy into the room, and he just wanted to visit.
You'd think we'd be intelligent enough to remember this with the second, but apparently kids really are smarter than their parents, and we fall for each trick again with the new baby.
I wonder if a lot of the allegations of mortgage fraud are simply efforts by the powers-that-be to make promises and then avoid paying when the time comes. Yell about fraud and then when everybody files for their credit, you simply slap a "hold" and then an "audit" on their account. Whether they look like they committed fraud or not.
That way, you can avoid paying out the tax credit, while still retaining the stimulus effect (and numbers massage for the prior quarters). Remember, not everyone "monetized" the credit and so are planning on collecting when they file after the first of the year. I predict much wailing and gnashing of teeth from lots of people that qualify perfectly legitimately as they are accused of fraud, lying on loan docs, etc. If they ever manage to run the IRS gauntlet, the dollar will have devalued further, so the .gov pays out $8k in further-devalued currency.
The .gov does this sort of thing all the time ... what one agency promises, another takes away.
MOSCOW (AP) -- Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said Wednesday that Russia is considering selling gold on world markets to cash in on high prices as the government faces its first budget deficit in a decade.
Kudrin's remarks follow a report last week that the Gokhran precious metals depository was planning to sell up to 50 metric tons, or 1.6 million ounces, of gold in London by the end of the year.
I predict much wailing and gnashing of teeth from lots of people that qualify perfectly legitimately as they are accused of fraud, lying on loan docs, etc.
Another unintended consequence of auditing every return with a FTHB credit is that it takes away resources to police other areas of our glorious 170,000 page tax code. Game theory suggests playing a more aggressive tax strategy if you are not claiming the credit.
Another unintended consequence of auditing every return with a FTHB credit is that it takes away resources to police other areas of our glorious 170,000 page tax code. Game theory suggests playing a more aggressive tax strategy if you are not claiming the credit.
If your internet connection just slowed dramatically, it's probably due to the NSA. You're not supposed to say that out loud !
That said, it's a very insightful point.....not that I would ever consider doing it
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote at - 7:51 am
".....My little testimonial is going to a Rite Aid to pick up a card for someone and the xmas stuff was right next to the halloween stuff. CREEPY. "
you think thats creepy!...just wait till next year...Christmas sales starting before easter
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 10/28/2009 - 10:02 am
You'd think we'd be intelligent enough to remember this with the second, but apparently kids really are smarter than their parents, and we fall for each trick again with the new baby.
Sounds remarkably like the markets... must be another unconscious behavioral dynamic at work.
"I'm thinking of it too. But then I think of poor poic and his bloody battle with SRS, and I restrain myself."
PBS just contacted me. Something about being interviewed for a show about history's great battles. How you survived, impact on the family, survivors guilt etc...
Yell about fraud and then when everybody files for their credit, you simply slap a "hold" and then an "audit" on their account. Whether they look like they committed fraud or not.
Why do you guys get all the even though your currency is getting stronger !
Actually, starting October 20 our currency began backing off, from peaking at almost 0.98 CAD/USD to now below 0.93. It doesn't sound like much, but it bodes well for manufacturing capacity in Ontario if we can keep it below 0.94.
Actually, starting October 20 our currency began backing off, from peaking at almost 0.98 CAD/USD to now below 0.93. It doesn't sound like much, but it bodes well for manufacturing capacity in Ontario if we can keep it below 0.94
I was just snarking anyway. Good luck to our friends in the GWN-
PBS just contacted me. Something about being interviewed for a show about history's great battles. How you survived, impact on the family, survivors guilt etc...
Don't they usually wait until the war is over for that?!
PBS just contacted me. Something about being interviewed for a show about history's great battles. How you survived, impact on the family, survivors guilt etc...
Make sure Will Lyman--the voice of Frontline--narrates it. I could listen to that man narrate an 8 hour paint drying documentary.
Game theory also predicts one possible outcome is the .gov caught between two equally angry groups:
1) Group 1 shouts: "Hey, .gov, why are you spending all this money we don't have! You are reckless, corrupt, and you make things worse!"
2) Group 2 shouts: "Hey, .gov, give me the money you promised when you enacted the 'rescue programs' and bailout bills! You promised, I relied, your feckless delays are making things worse, so GIVE ME MY EFFING MONEY!"
Groups 1 and 2 may be somewhat opposed to each other, but both are damn sure set to play against the .gov. Like in Risk, when the guy in Europe and the guy holed up in Australia get together to whack the guy split up between Asia and North America.
By the way, the extended and expanded homebuyers credit is not a done deal yet - the Senate is still fighting over the bill to extend the unemployment benefits, as Republicans have proposed ACORN and eVerify amendments to the underlying bill and the Senate is taking debate up again today - the amendment to extend and expand the credit has not been voted on yet.
actually just finished reading that.......well not all the attachments.....but the only thing I can add is that it only represents the information that is already available (from many sources). I can only imagine what the real story (and exposure) is.
It tells me that we're really only going to end up with 2-3 actual banks in the long term.
I fully expect C to get folded into JPM or GS (at least the good parts-if there are still any left).
"gabyjan (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 10/28/2009 - 8:36 am
reply ignore user
probably doing just fine,a lot better than most of the country"
that's cause he's strong mentally and everyone knows this is just a mental recession.
When does the blood funnel turn its attention to Bank of America?
Seriously, I just don't know what to think about burning roughly a months new housing supply every month for the last 6 months on weak sales volume. I can't refute what is being reported but I just don't trust the inventory numbers.
Etrade isn't doing so hot either. I saw an SEC ruling on them last year, front running trades, delaying trades, etc. no news on it. I sent it to Bloomberg and others asking how is this not in the public interest to report? No bites. I thought that 30d <$2/share you get booted off the exchange??
OK, I know I'm a little late on this, but presuming for the sake of argument here that we think that the homebuyer tax credit is going to do something beneficial:
I'm on the sidelines and have been since 2007. If I had wanted to buy in 2009, I would not have gotten the credit because I've only been renting since 2007 thereby missing "first time buyer" requirement. Also my income doesn't work with this. Now it is being extended to "move-up" buyers, but I haven't been in the same place for five years and my income is still too high.
Now, stay with me here. I can afford to buy at this point- something. However there is a tax credit jacking up the market, one that I can't get. People who have lower income probably can't afford something decent around here even with the credit.
So, again, assuming for the sake of argument that this is going to get some houses sold in 2010 and that is a good thing - exactly who is going to get off the fence here? The requirements have ruled out anyone in a position to buy yet put a caution out there that the bottom isn't going to be permitted yet.
I don't see how this works at any level or given any set of assumptions. Even if I weren't a housing skeptic of some sort, this would firm up our decision to rent for another year.
I think all you stock jockeys one way or the other are crazy gamblers. I'm still 100% in long Treasuries and I will be until I see a reason for inflation to actually occur, the dollar to permanently drop, or the dividend yield on stocks is higher than that of long Treasuries to compensate me for the additional risk. I know many of you think the conditions for one of these already exist, but I humbly disagree.
China will not change their peg. We're adjusting through deflation and the stomach of the American voter for bailouts has turned, if you will.
First? Nemo
OT: I was worried that we (the people) didn't own enough of GMAC (34.5%). good thing they're asking for at least $2.8 billion more in taxpayer cash. whew!
This can't be a suprise.
Tax credit is over if you plan to close escrow on time.
Now people are waiting for the extention to start.
Sales will pick up in Jan.
is there a relationship between mortgage applications decreasing and new home sales decreasing?
yes.
Okay, who jumped on the SRS/SKF train today?
MegaBanks... "Too big to fail"
McMansions... "Too big to fall"
josap wrote:
But isn't the winter traditionally SLOW for sales?
Can haz more stimulus?
noob goldberg wrote:
I've been on it for a week or two - long at 9.75. Fully expected it to hit 6's so I did not get as long as I wanted to. Oh well - this is in the gambling account.
Other than a few custom homes (you can get GREAT deals) new home construction has completely stopped in my locale. Can not compete with REO's selling for more than half off.
Here in NYC, the Department of Buildings counts 454 stalled condo construction projects...but a new report counts 601 in just half a dozen neighborhoods...including stalled sites and vacant, unsold units in newly built buildings. Lots of inventory, lots of half-built sites.
Survey finds 601 troubled condo projects - Crain's New York Business
My ads coldwell banker and century 21. No ads for glod today.
Okay, who jumped on the SRS/SKF train today?
I'm actually thinking about it. I have great hopes that my prodigal TWM will finally come home from the wars.
Daddy's waitin'.
With non-instant grits.
Yes, winter is slower. But with the extiontion addition of move up buyers I expect many of them will buy sooner rather than later. What I want to see with the "move up" buyers is if they will be moving up or down. In my area I can now buy a house at 1/2 of what our current mortgage is, so why not get lower payments?
With the extention you have till June 30th to close escrow, which families will like.
homedad43 wrote:
I'm thinking of it too. But then I think of poor poic and his bloody battle with SRS, and I restrain myself.
Okay, who jumped on the SRS/SKF train today?
I own two slices, 500 @ 9.93 on 10/8, and 500 @ 9.8376 yesterday.
thanks for that article...wowzer.
homedad43 wrote:
RWM is a short R2000 ETF that is straight short - not levered 2:1 so the downside is not as great - tradeoff being the upside is not as juicy as TWM once the market cracks.
Just a FYI.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
I've got one for making real money on fantasy stock trading. Talk about irony
noob goldberg wrote:
Someone posted a great idea the other night, which is just to buy OTM options, and immediately write them off as bad trades. You could have got rich with puts on SRS...
None of those time-decay double shorts... but did put a bear spread on VNO when it took out that 60 support.
Crude oil inventory up 800k barrels, gasoline inventory build of 1.7 million barrels. Should pressure crude oil lower.
Pomerantz Files Class Action On Behalf of Investors in ProShares' UltraShort Financials Fund --- SKF - AOL Money & Finance
Just saw this. Apparently filed by someone who got a bit burned...
They probably weren't aware that you can't use lawn mowers for trimming hedges, either.
yay.... i'm double short crude =)
homedad43 wrote:
LOL!
Buy OTM options, and immediately write them off as bad trades.
.
Not every seed sprouts, but you gotta buy the sack.
josap: In the current environment, my bet would be down that is IF they can get a buyer for their unit. I think that will be the wrinkle. I am hopeful that families will be ale to get out of this mess with their skin, teeth and at least a little savings intact. Those high square-footage homes are gonna be a killer as I think energy prices are going to be a big deal in a 2008 redux next year, but then again, I could be all wet-I go swimming a lot.
homedad43 wrote:
If you do what I do it works just fine. I put it on its side, rev it up, and then I grab the handle and have my two-year-old grab the front wheels. He was a little scared at first, but I told him to man up and getter done.
I hate it when news sources revise the expected number after the fact. Durable goods didn't beat.
Bloomberg.com:
Economic Calendar
And GDP expectation is STILL +3.0% even though I've already seen news reports claiming expected is 2.5%.
Mike in LI:
Thanks.
Was aware and made money in both last year, as well as SKF. Did about two-thirds of the money in RWM and a third in TWM at that point. I'm still down in the TWM since the damned R2k didn't crack like I thought but slowly making it back.
I'm just crotchety on this particular purchase.
the tax credit will staunch but not stop the bleeding.
by next summer we'll have a bigger and better tax credit.
I'm waiting for my $16,000 credit.
josap wrote:
On the other hand; this should "push out" demand in Nov. and Dec. of '09
Yipes Cinco!
Oxtail wrote:
I heard that
has decided to roll GDP back by a percent or so......I guess they don't want folks to think (realize) that they're greedy-
Nanoo
I am thinking there will be more "move down" buyers than "move up" buyers.
After they get an ok on the new house, how many will just walk from the old higher mortgage. In areas where most people are underwater I think this will happen allot. All they need to do is submit a lease for the current underwater house. Lots of fraud opportunities with this one.
i should expand on this thought
the govt can't let the homebuyer credit lapse.
thus they extend it for now,
then they'll really extend it for next summer.
everybody knows winter is slow for home sales. so we just gotta get through until May.
Then the fireworks can really begin.
I have to admit, I'm surprised because I never knew that there was this much money in the entire world.
Pixels indeed.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
You say that like it's a bad thing! I guess they didn't want to divert any money from Xmas retail sales
I told him to man up and getter done.
LOL. Haven't told my boys to "man up" yet. "Suck it up", but not "man up".
When are you gonna give him some chewin' tobacco?
OT
: Someone inquired (and someone posted) about the C-S 10 (20?) compared to Gold. Below is for 2009 for CS-10 & CS-20. I've included some previous Januaries for reference. For the price of Gold, I used the price via the London Fix on the first trading day of each month.
..................CSXR.....SPCS20R
01-2000......0.355.....0.355
01-2004......0.391.....0.364
01-2007......0.346.....0.316
01-2008......0.232.....0.213
01-2009......0.181.....0.167
02-2009......0.168.....0.156
03-2009......0.162.....0.149
04-2009......0.163.....0.151
05-2009......0.171.....0.158
06-2009......0.156.....0.145
07-2009......0.166.....0.154
08-2009......0.165.....0.152
.
Below is an example of the data used to calculate January, 2009
01-2009......874.50.....157.96.....146.35
Oxtail wrote:
I forget the current Canadian GDP expectation numbers for 2010, but they're for sure positive. And then Export Development Canada came out with a report yesterday that said that if the Canadian Dollar stays around $0.95 for an extended period we'd probably see a 3% decline in Canadian GDP. Of course, a higher dollar means cheaper shopping excursions into the USA, so most of the great unwashed are ecstatic about the current exchange rate.
OT: To Cinco. Um-the SO is experiencing a come to jesus time regarding the economy. Uh, he isn't rolling his eyes or impatient now. It was a big A change in our health care coverage that came in the snail-mail that woke him up. I then owned up to the pension stuff I knew, he was silent and sober.
can one get a new FHA mortgage if the existing one is underwater?
really interesting from Todd Harrison article on hedge funds and their future
After the anger, the future of hedge funds Todd Harrison - MarketWatch
Yearning to Learn wrote:
True of a lot of things. They can't pull back on stimulus, they can't let interest rates rise, they can't raise taxes, they can't balance the budget....One little misstep, and it all comes crashing down. Better to wait for another administration to come a long before they let that happen.
homedad43 wrote:
In reality I'm having a hard time figuring out when to treat him like a baby and when to treat him like a little boy. Being a parent is a hell of a lot harder than becoming one.
FHA is in the red sans countrywide. So, I'm not sure. NINJAs going through?
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
I'd prescribe internet porn and anti-depressants. That should cheer him up
BTW, it's 10:45 EST. Is he usually "not" sober at this time
.....no prob. He'll tell ya.........
A lot of data coming out this week and next. So far the trend hasn't been too kind for the bullz.
Now that we are on the downslope of peak fiscal stimulus the next few months should be interesting.
Xmas is going to be ugly and a lot of small businesses will have no choice (cash/credit exhausted) but to throw in the towel at the beginning of the year.
lol I keep telling him we have a
compared with the rest of the worlds population. and we do. Everything is relative.
Mortgage Fraud - it's what's for breakfast:
Mortgage Fraud Is Surging Again
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
This is almost identical to the experience I had with my wife. She's got an economics degree, and was not remotely charitable toward the
thesis, so it was a bit of a challenge.
By the end of it, she said I wasn't being pessimistic enough.
black dog wrote:
Yeah, the appreciation of the Yen finally stalled and is running the risk of strengthening against the USD by a full Yen. What is an exporting economy's CB gonna do if they can't keep their currency artificially weak?!
yagij wrote:
It's tough when the world's largest economy is deliberately trying to tank it's own currency-
Why buy a house when you can rent for $179-per-month a gated storage facility and call it home?
It takes 3inch thick steel armor to look at the stuff and not channel Linda Blair, sometimes I just have to take a DEEP BREATH and remind myself.
Did anyone else notice how Yahoo! Finance stopped listing the 52 week highs/lows of the indexes and major ETFs?
Another piece of the media propaganda puzzle.
Cinco-X wrote:
If the Japanese want to be in the driver's seat and hollow out their own economy, I may be inclined to let them.
The first-time homebuyer credits (2008, 2009) came too soon, of course, but...a credit could be useful (instead of a problem) if designed more cleverly. It needs to start later, be modest, and attenuate gradually, etc.
Finding the Dream: The Right Way to Structure Cash For Clunkers and Other Incentives
yagij wrote:
It's good to finally see a strong technical bounce in the USD. We should take bets on the top of INX. I'd say at least 77.50, if not 78.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Her role is to remind me that even though it affects us, we have a life to live irrespective of the world around us. She's far more grounded than I.
Xmas sales are gonna be awful because there is more to the story than just UE. My little testimonial is going to a Rite Aid to pick up a card for someone and the xmas stuff was right next to the halloween stuff. CREEPY.
.......everyone seems surprised that mortgage fraud, insider trading, ponzi schemes, and tax fraud has increased substantially over the past 2-years - Why? The FedGov is doing it or at best allowing it to happen.........the rationale ranges from, "it must be OK" to "Screw 'em"!.......The looting has increased at ALL levels
noob goldberg wrote:
---Truer words were never spoken.
this is the problem when you openly state your goal, and it's a dumb one. (TBTF)
When my head spins and I have a bad case of vertigo-I have to step back and play with my dog that doesn't know what a SIV is.
Second hardily with HomeGnobe regarding parenthood.
Basel
This is just an example.
Current house payment is 1200.00 mo. Loan is $200,000.00 Value is $160,000.00
New house is 600.00 mo. Loan is $80,000.00, Value is $96,000.00 at close of escrow and $80,000.00 a year from now. You are at 0 equity rather than -$40,000.00
When you apply for the new loan you lease out the old house. If you lease the house for $900.00 mo you are still ahead $300.00 a month.
$1200.payment - 900. rent = -300 + 600 new loan = 900. out the door rather than 1200.
BSR: And they led the way, n'est pas? Shifts on the magnitude of tectonic plates to the financial system with never-ending game changers for the schmucks just trying to keep it together. Stagnant to declining wages, yoy double-digit and unrecognized inflation, easy/cheap credit with abusive terms and overly complex/unrevealed ways to screw the participants that finally extended into Core economic engines for main street. All they while they look at you with eyes made of stone saying they didn't realize it? PUH-LEEEZE.
My wife is still in the "not remotely charitable" phase. She's all "yeah, that stuff is happening to other people", not understanding how interconnected everything is.
I hope you've got that kid on a ladder, otherwise how do you get the higher stuff?
HomeGnome wrote:
The only other thing I've learned so far about parenthood is that every time I realize he's acquired a new skill or reached another development level, I also realize that he's been gaming me with it for at least a week, and probably a couple of months.
For example, at 9 months old he started waking up in the middle of the night, crying. It took us over a week to figure out that he wasn't sick, or having bad dreams, but in fact had figured out that crying brought daddy into the room, and he just wanted to visit.
You'd think we'd be intelligent enough to remember this with the second, but apparently kids really are smarter than their parents, and we fall for each trick again with the new baby.
Uncle Ar wrote:
I don't spend money on fancy things like ladders. We just stack the broken milk crates we found behind the mall.
I wonder if a lot of the allegations of mortgage fraud are simply efforts by the powers-that-be to make promises and then avoid paying when the time comes. Yell about fraud and then when everybody files for their credit, you simply slap a "hold" and then an "audit" on their account. Whether they look like they committed fraud or not.
That way, you can avoid paying out the tax credit, while still retaining the stimulus effect (and numbers massage for the prior quarters). Remember, not everyone "monetized" the credit and so are planning on collecting when they file after the first of the year. I predict much wailing and gnashing of teeth from lots of people that qualify perfectly legitimately as they are accused of fraud, lying on loan docs, etc. If they ever manage to run the IRS gauntlet, the dollar will have devalued further, so the .gov pays out $8k in further-devalued currency.
The .gov does this sort of thing all the time ... what one agency promises, another takes away.
Sure, it's evil, but what did you expect?
For the glod bugs in here.
Russia considering gold sale
MOSCOW (AP) -- Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said Wednesday that Russia is considering selling gold on world markets to cash in on high prices as the government faces its first budget deficit in a decade.
Kudrin's remarks follow a report last week that the Gokhran precious metals depository was planning to sell up to 50 metric tons, or 1.6 million ounces, of gold in London by the end of the year.
Russia considering gold sale - Yahoo! Finance
Not to worry, the Chinese will buy it ALL with a kickback and it will never go on the open market.
from the post
"There were 7.5 months of supply in September - significantly below the all time record of 12.4 months of supply set in January."
(supply of new homes that is)
so in 9 months we worked off 5 months of supply
ok i understand completely
what?
9850 must be a set-point for some program trading. Seems every time the DJIA crosses it, a buyer steps in-
threetorches wrote:
Another unintended consequence of auditing every return with a FTHB credit is that it takes away resources to police other areas of our glorious 170,000 page tax code. Game theory suggests playing a more aggressive tax strategy if you are not claiming the credit.
and there is no manual either.
teh boyz gots algorithmz!
Mr Slippery wrote:
If your internet connection just slowed dramatically, it's probably due to the NSA. You're not supposed to say that out loud !
That said, it's a very insightful point.....not that I would ever consider doing it
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote at - 7:51 am
".....My little testimonial is going to a Rite Aid to pick up a card for someone and the xmas stuff was right next to the halloween stuff. CREEPY. "
you think thats creepy!...just wait till next year...Christmas sales starting before easter
Cinco-X wrote:
That's certainly not the case in Toronto. The TSX has shed 600 points, or about 5%, in the past two days.
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 10/28/2009 - 10:02 am
You'd think we'd be intelligent enough to remember this with the second, but apparently kids really are smarter than their parents, and we fall for each trick again with the new baby.
Sounds remarkably like the markets... must be another unconscious behavioral dynamic at work.
noob goldberg
she's right you arent and either am i when i think about it.
noob goldberg wrote:
Canada must need a PPT Czar.
sm_landlord wrote:
Or a
noob goldberg wrote:
Why do you guys get all the
even though your currency is getting stronger !
"I'm thinking of it too. But then I think of poor poic and his bloody battle with SRS, and I restrain myself."
PBS just contacted me. Something about being interviewed for a show about history's great battles. How you survived, impact on the family, survivors guilt etc...
In other news, CitiBank is getting shown the door again today on high volume.
Edit to add: Last time this happened, the media reports it was because of the looming end to the homebuyer credit...so now why?
threetorches wrote:
Remember, a bigger govt. is our friend......
So just send the IRS the front page of the closing docs. What would be so hard about that?
Cinco-X wrote:
Actually, starting October 20 our currency began backing off, from peaking at almost 0.98 CAD/USD to now below 0.93. It doesn't sound like much, but it bodes well for manufacturing capacity in Ontario if we can keep it below 0.94.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Ummmm.... because of the looming renewal of the HBC?
quite the post over at reggie middletons blog
found by way of zero hedge hat tip
http://boombustblog.com/
reggie says that the dollar carry trade is sowing the seeds of the next crisis and reggie quotes roubinis analysis as support
noob goldberg wrote:
I was just snarking anyway. Good luck to our friends in the GWN-
The unexpected (NSA) has been revised Hoocoodanode (SA) latest results pointing towards told ya so.
poic wrote:
Don't they usually wait until the war is over for that?!
poic wrote:
Make sure Will Lyman--the voice of Frontline--narrates it. I could listen to that man narrate an 8 hour paint drying documentary.
Game theory also predicts one possible outcome is the .gov caught between two equally angry groups:
1) Group 1 shouts: "Hey, .gov, why are you spending all this money we don't have! You are reckless, corrupt, and you make things worse!"
2) Group 2 shouts: "Hey, .gov, give me the money you promised when you enacted the 'rescue programs' and bailout bills! You promised, I relied, your feckless delays are making things worse, so GIVE ME MY EFFING MONEY!"
Groups 1 and 2 may be somewhat opposed to each other, but both are damn sure set to play against the .gov. Like in Risk, when the guy in Europe and the guy holed up in Australia get together to whack the guy split up between Asia and North America.
Citigroup: Good night and good luck. GS: Liver and Fava beans tastes great.
By the way, the extended and expanded homebuyers credit is not a done deal yet - the Senate is still fighting over the bill to extend the unemployment benefits, as Republicans have proposed ACORN and eVerify amendments to the underlying bill and the Senate is taking debate up again today - the amendment to extend and expand the credit has not been voted on yet.
Anyone see that GS just downgraded GDP estimate to 2.7%?
Coldwell might want to move into igloos.
there are 511 guests online.
i have no ads. oh i hit refresh,nope nothing.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
It would be interesting to know who the short-sellers are?
golden sacks with their very,very fast computers?
I'm just making this stuff up as I go along, they are my best guess and maybe some other 'primary dealers'.
gabyjan wrote:
I assumed so, but it'd be nice to know for sure. Perhaps grounds for treason when martial law is declared?
mock-
actually just finished reading that.......well not all the attachments.....but the only thing I can add is that it only represents the information that is already available (from many sources). I can only imagine what the real story (and exposure) is.
It tells me that we're really only going to end up with 2-3 actual banks in the long term.
I fully expect C to get folded into JPM or GS (at least the good parts-if there are still any left).
Ciao
MS
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Several independent pieces of anecdata indicating big problems in its CC business.
"survivors guilt "
"But they look like civilians, sir."
"I said take those people under fire," the Colonel told him.
He did. He had to. Bodies flew up into the air.
Treason! not me!!!!!
Terry: Arent the two in the bill together or did I misread that?
gabyjan wrote:
Not you. They grays running GS!
"golden sacks"
Please. "Slacks."
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Do I dare ask where that quote is from?
Treason? Where is Phil Gramm now?
poic-
Goes hand in hand with Morgan's earnings downgrade(s)-almost the entire market- two day's before the end of the quarter.
Ciao
MS
Just 4% Trust Reporters More Than Themselves on What’s Good for America
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Any chance he's on the Board of Directors? Wouldn't surprise me-
"Do I dare ask where that quote is from?"
From someone who told me the story years ago. A real person and a real situation, but I have no right to use his name.
He said he kept dreaming about the bodies flying up into the air. Paranoid then, and a hard drinker.
thank you. um not them either,because they are the "right"side.paulson made certain of that and W said sure okay
noob goldberg wrote:
Nova?
Guess not.....
soory pavel
golden sacks is how i think of them.
gabyjan wrote:
Things change; where are those guys now?
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
An amendment to add the extended and expanded credit has been proposed by Issakson (sp?), but that amendment has not been voted on yet.
"Treason? Where is Phil Gramm now? "
Is he not still conducting black-hole experiments over at UBS?
Ciao
MS
Maury: Arent they all taking pretty big hits in CCs? Wonder if people will make flying toys out of the maxed out ones that will resemble jingle mail.
Only in his mind...
Not Nova. No one you're likely to know.
probably doing just fine,a lot better than most of the country
mock turtle wrote:
Yeah, looks like a Tim Burton movie in every store I've been in.
We should consider combining the two holidays. Make the Zombie Jesus myth explicit.
Maury the Credit Responsibility Panda wrote:
OMG...I snorted coffee out my nose on that one! LOL
"gabyjan (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 10/28/2009 - 8:36 am
reply ignore user
probably doing just fine,a lot better than most of the country"
that's cause he's strong mentally and everyone knows this is just a mental recession.
energyecon wrote:
Wiki says he's still there, but it may be out of date-
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Yeah. And look at BAC's chart too. It's given up 4 points in the last two weeks of trading.
terry
dod and isakson started off on a extended credit then reid somehow got in it. so who knows. and it was with extended ue benefits. who knows
gabyjan wrote:
Are they going to try and attach the public option to it as well?
When does the blood funnel turn its attention to Bank of America?
Seriously, I just don't know what to think about burning roughly a months new housing supply every month for the last 6 months on weak sales volume. I can't refute what is being reported but I just don't trust the inventory numbers.
Etrade isn't doing so hot either. I saw an SEC ruling on them last year, front running trades, delaying trades, etc. no news on it. I sent it to Bloomberg and others asking how is this not in the public interest to report? No bites. I thought that 30d <$2/share you get booted off the exchange??
OK, I know I'm a little late on this, but presuming for the sake of argument here that we think that the homebuyer tax credit is going to do something beneficial:
I'm on the sidelines and have been since 2007. If I had wanted to buy in 2009, I would not have gotten the credit because I've only been renting since 2007 thereby missing "first time buyer" requirement. Also my income doesn't work with this. Now it is being extended to "move-up" buyers, but I haven't been in the same place for five years and my income is still too high.
Now, stay with me here. I can afford to buy at this point- something. However there is a tax credit jacking up the market, one that I can't get. People who have lower income probably can't afford something decent around here even with the credit.
So, again, assuming for the sake of argument that this is going to get some houses sold in 2010 and that is a good thing - exactly who is going to get off the fence here? The requirements have ruled out anyone in a position to buy yet put a caution out there that the bottom isn't going to be permitted yet.
I don't see how this works at any level or given any set of assumptions. Even if I weren't a housing skeptic of some sort, this would firm up our decision to rent for another year.
noob goldberg wrote:
Buy now or be priced out...
...
...Wait a minute...
I think all you stock jockeys one way or the other are crazy gamblers. I'm still 100% in long Treasuries and I will be until I see a reason for inflation to actually occur, the dollar to permanently drop, or the dividend yield on stocks is higher than that of long Treasuries to compensate me for the additional risk. I know many of you think the conditions for one of these already exist, but I humbly disagree.
China will not change their peg. We're adjusting through deflation and the stomach of the American voter for bailouts has turned, if you will.
I may borrow some of it.
muffin top, you miss the big picture.
this is not necessarily about keeping sales numbers high
it is about keeping PRICES as high as possible.
everything"works" if we keep prices high, even if sales volume is low. that is, as long as we continue the foreclosure moratoria.
we just can't let a bunch of sales/foreclosures lower the stated valuations of these assets.
no sale= no mark to market=no change in valuation.
sale=new market price=potential change in valuation.
thus, the goal is to keep SALES prices as high as possible.