CRE: Liberty Property Trust Conference Call Comments

in

Liberty. Property. Trust.

How could you go wrong?

Nemo, you sure read fast

do I take this to mean the U.K. CRE market and the US CRE markets have 'decoupled'

Wait a minute, they are publicly traded?

Sign me up!

Went to the dentist today. I got the hygienist talking (not very difficult with this one, only the topic selection is difficult to control - talking) about "the economy". Her sister moved into her house in January. The sister has an underwater condo in LA. Sister worked for a house builder as an interior-designer but there no jobs now. She's paying the condo out of UE benefits. She's thinking about going the "just stop paying" route, but doesn't want to ruin her credit rating. She (the sister) takes pride in never having missed a credit payment of any kind, and can't figure out what to do. She currently going to school for "computers".

I assume housing prices will stay up until UE runs out.

The bigger question NRA, was she a looker? Big smile

She's thinking about going the "just stop paying" route, but doesn't want to ruin her credit rating. She (the sister) takes pride in never having missed a credit payment of any kind, and can't figure out what to do.

So another words she actually owns nothing?

CRE: Liberty Property Trust

Damn, CR you owe me a new irony detector! Mine only used to go to eleven.

Maybe. but both are reporting a pickup in leasing, but the vacancy rates are so high rents are still falling in the U.S. (and probably in the U.K. for new leases)

Remember that U.K. article just said they weren't giving out across-the-board rent concessions on existing contracts any more. There are just one step above as bad as it gets.

best wishes

Pigged

Just have the treasury and the Fed write a check for $250K to everyone. If that doesn't work as stimulus, then nothing will. Can we, at least, agree on that?

11% cap rates - I'm sure that is all priced into the huge run up in the CREIT's.

Just relabel the dial. Mine goes to 12!

best wishes

"I think it's even conceivable that we have one or two more months of job losses."

  • Conceivable? Are you kidding me! It's going to be a long slog this winter and we will see job losses until at least spring of 2010. And I know that's being optimistic Needs More Cowbell

"Failure to launch" is one thing, "refusal to launch" is another.

As a businessman, I refuse to be a bullet sponge. There is too much systemic risk out there that isn't being addressed.

Until that time, the mp organization is "weapons tight."

shill wrote:

The bigger question NRA, was she a looker?

Not bad, but two kids and talks way way WAY too much.

So another words she actually owns nothing?

She, like most people, doesn't know that tho.

Yancey Ward wrote:

ust have the treasury and the Fed write a check for $250K to everyone. If that doesn't work as stimulus, then nothing will. Can we, at least, agree on that?

Works for me. Hu might not like it tho.

Get Out of Bonds -- Fast!

Get Out of Bonds -- Fast!-Minyanville

Not bad, but two kids and talks way way WAY too much.

Let me guess....blond Smile

CalculatedRisk wrote:

Just relabel the dial. Mine goes to 12!

It's very special YouTube - Spinal Tap - 11

[damn! Pigged on my link find of the hour]

doublegood doublefun OT: (well, maybe some 'stimulus')

Get ready for more -- a lot more -- of Levi Johnston.

The hockey-playing dad to Sarah Palin's grandson, Johnston, 19, is ready for his Playgirl close-up. And while a date has yet to be set for his nude photo shoot, his manager Tank Jones told Usmagazine.com today, "it will be early November" in New York.

And Playgirl readers shouldn't expect many artfully placed pillows in the photos. Jones confirms to Us that full-frontal shots are planned for the shoot -- and that Bristol Palin's ex isn't nervous about exposing himself.

"He's pumped! He's ready to shock the world. The hell with fifteen minutes," Jones told Us over the phone. "As a matter of fact, when I picked him up, he came out the house naked. I said 'not now!'"

Johnston himself took the phone for a moment to chime in, telling Us: "I just get naked. That's what I do."

The new employment cure: Full Monty in a non-porn mag.

Excellent, mp, an entree for a transport link:

VIX and More: Breaking Down the Weakness in Transports

Green shoots in empty boxcars for buyers, renters and bandos to match accommodation with purchasing power.

C

Gov. David Paterson's call for the Legislature to return for a special budget-cutting session on Nov. 10 may be well-timed: It will likely come as the state enters what finance experts call a month-to-month "negative cash flow"situation for the first time in recent memory

For effin sake DP, would ya pick up the phone and cal Goldman already....sheeezus...Can I be Governor?

shill wrote:

Let me guess....blond

Philosophically, like totally.

Comrade Rally Monkey wrote:

Gov. David Paterson's call for the Legislature to return for a special budget-cutting session on Nov. 10 may be well-timed: It will likely come as the state enters what finance experts call a month-to-month "negative cash flow"situation for the first time in recent memory

After seeing Cali do the IOU earlier this year I immediately changed my W4 with holding for NYS - sorry Dave, you'll have to wait until tax time to get my money...

My own company is shedding office space and moving me from an office to a cubicle.

Liberty. Property. Trust. These are my new watchwords.

Philosophically, like totally.

Grade

Nemo wrote:

Liberty. Property. Trust. These are my new watchwords.

It actually sounds like they are being realistic about what's going on with their business.

There is no tactical advantage in pressing forward with any kind of business investment in this environment, when I could easily get blown away by a stalled economy or yet another "recession."

Sure, industrial production is picking up, but that isn't because Mom and Pop are rushing out to the store.

IMO, this is an inventory build, nothing more, until someone proves otherwise.

mp wrote:

The mp organization is "weapons tight."

Don't spend until you see the red of their balance sheet!

ahhh jeez mike...the dollar empire is dead... it won't matter that you never pay...that's how bad it is...

that's not very boooyahahhahahhahhah, now is it? i need a new handle

Nemo wrote:

My own company is shedding office space and moving me from an office to a cubicle.

Liberty. Property. Trust. These are my new watchwords.

Higher CRE vacancies leading to deflating office space, with excess housing supply leading to higher foreclosures. The invisible hand at work.

from CR's post

"I think it's even conceivable that we have one or two more months of job losses. Our guess earlier this year was that we might hit 8 million jobs lost and we're at 7.3 so far, and jobs might not go positive until the beginning of next year, and I think you're going to see modest job numbers. You know, the kind of numbers that, you know, don't even keep up with population growth. "


i just love this country!...what an economy

gdp growth while 8 plus million un employed

now that true efficientcy

no mis-allocation of capital here

8 million...enough to man a small army...or several small armies

ok more people than all the soldiers in the army of the peoples republic of china

wasnt it marx who said the capitalist will compete to make and sell the rope we will use to hang them with.... or to that effect

Rate Of Bank Charge Offs Surpasses That Set During Great Depression:

http://newsusa.myfeedportal.com/item.php?itemid=1124177

And about the $250k checks, let us think for a moment what position we would be in if this was the case. Probably a lot better off than we are now. Sure we would have some inflation but this mess has gone beyond fixing.

What chapter are we in?

Comrade Rally Monkey wrote:

ahhh jeez mike...the dollar empire is dead

I don't think that is written in stone yet. And among friends and family I am the one known as being overly pessimistic...

Don't spend until you see the red of their balance sheet!

I'm saying I'm not doing anything unless I see "once in a lifetime" opportunities.

I'm seeing a few, but not many.

Home prices rise in most major cities in August

can we get a letterman top ten rewrite on this headline...?

I'll start: 10)Your governement made your home and mortgage more expensive for you
9) The lowest tenth of society were finally swindeled into homeownership
8 )

Comrade Rally Monkey wrote:

..the dollar empire is dead...

That depends; if we take everyone else down with us, we might still end up being better positioned than the rest in the long run. I'm not sure if China, etc. can manage w/o a market like ours to dump onto.

It takes employment increases to begin to put new seats -- new bodies in seats in offices. And given that the September job number still was a negative 263,000, that is to say we have yet to see a positive monthly job number, it just feels like that, that hiring aspect is a ways off, and once it starts, and we talked a little bit about this in some prior calls we think there is some amount of shadow space in the market, that is really manifesting itself in, you know, sort of every fifth desk in an office building is empty because of hiring freezes and job cuts over the last year and a half. So even when companies begin to hire we think they're going to first fill that desk before they need new space.

If he thinks there's slack in offices - he should walk factories & warehouses more - we could probably produce twice what we do now & sit on it for months with the space under roof we have now [factories & warehouses combined].

mp wrote:

Don't spend until you see the red of their balance sheet!

I'm saying I'm not doing anything unless I see "once in a lifetime" opportunities.

I'm seeing a few, but not many.

Prices are still too high - people are sitting on 'capacity' rather then sell at 'distressed prices'... the panic is over now the wait begins.

Rally....RECKEN this sucker went down?

Frustrated borrowers starting to hit back...

"The two allegedly sought loan modification assistance from the victims but believed that nothing was being done and wanted their money back," a statement from the district attorney's office said.
Davila-Morales added that the couple, according to investigators, believed they had been swindled.

Torture charged in L.A.-area mortgage rescue case
| Reuters

Cinco-X wrote:

That depends; if we take everyone else down with us, we might still end up being better positioned than the rest in the long run. I'm not sure if China, etc. can manage w/o a market like ours to dump onto.

The dollar isn't dead until Hu says its dead. So far no word.

Final Hour of Trading...first a Sprott analysis...
Dead Government Walking-
'...confidence eventually erodes until investors just stop lending.' (Which comes after the banks stop lending.)
Sprott Surreality Check Part Two: Dead Government Walking | zero hedge 

Space under roof in North America is easily twice what is needed to produce twice what we make now. Yes, IMO, 4x.

mock turtle wrote:

8 million...enough to man a small army...or several small armies

8 million new people to despise! GET A JOB YOU LOSERS! I'M NOT ON WELFARE, I WORK FOR A LIVING. AND GET A HAIRCUT YOU HIPPY!!!!

Democrats reach agreement to extend and pretend again with the homebuyer tax credit. FANTASTIC! Corruption rules again, just as I was losing faith in Dear Barney.

"Liberty. Property. Trust."

What are three cultural values that are becoming extinct for individuals, Alex?

dryfly wrote:

Prices are still too high - people are sitting on 'capacity' rather then sell at 'distressed prices'... the panic is over now the wait begins.

We've been here before methinks.

ndk wrote:

FANTASTIC!

Actually, this is good news. I'm really getting sick of a lingering decline.

mp wrote:

Sure, industrial production is picking up, but that isn't because Mom and Pop are rushing out to the store.

IMO, this is an inventory build, nothing more, until someone proves otherwise.

And you can almost measure it w/ your own eyes - are the shelves & big box isles turning over? Are the auto dealer lots turning over? Doesn't look like it to me.
:: ::
Won't really know until Spring either - when the 'lawn & garden season' is well under way - if no pull through by then we'll be back in the crapper 'officially'.

You know, lately I've been seeing a lot of "boosterism."

I'm not going to "push the button" on a project that requires a five-year commitment--sometimes more--until I know it can move forward in a reasonably stable environment.

To do otherwise is just downright stupid.

shill wrote:

Get Out of Bonds -- Fast!

A new pole. Are you an inflationesta, deflationesta, or other?

Where are said polls located?

Iran opens exchange to trade oil, products-ISNA

Iran opens exchange to trade oil, products-ISNA
| Reuters

Funny I did not see this on FOX or in my local Rag.

Snort all ya want D, more of this activity and you'll have him to kick around longer than Tricky Dick...

Grayson causes another ruckus
Republicans are trying to tar and tie President Obama with the latest eyebrow-raising remarks from a Florida congressman.

Representative Alan Grayson called a senior Federal Reserve adviser a "K Street whore" in a radio interview last month that is now circulating on Capitol Hill.

Grayson was objecting to opposition to more government oversight from Linda Robertson, a former Enron lobbyist now working for Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, and was referring to K Street, where many lobbyists have their offices in the nation's capital.

"Here I am the only member of Congress who actually worked as an economist, and this lobbyist, this K Street whore, is trying to teach me about economics," Grayson said.
Grayson causes another ruckus - Political Intelligence - A
national political and campaign blog from The Boston Globe - Boston.com


NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 10/27/2009 - 2:09 pm

A new pole. Are you an inflationesta, deflationesta, or other?

I believe in 'flation... beyond that, your guess is as good as mine (but not as good as Vampire Squid from Hell's)

As far as equities are concerned, as I said here last week, "fasten your seatbelts."

I remain convinced of that.

There's high volatility ahead.

Who gets laid off first: Dasher, Dancer, Prancer, Vixen, Comet, Cupid, Donner, Blitzen, or Rudolf?

shill wrote:

Where are said polls located?

In the land of many polls: Are you a: | Hoocoodanode?

mp wrote:

I'm not going to "push the button" on a project that requires a five-year commitment--sometimes more--until I know it can move forward in a reasonably stable environment.

The only way to go is 'bootstrap' in this environment - do everything via sweat equity & cash flow the growth. I'm working w/ a company doing that now... hell the owners are not only running the shop - they are also making some of the parts, doing the admin work, driving the delivery truck, cleaning the bathrooms & doing construction [redoing the QA lab]. I call them at 11PM they are still there quoting, ordering, sweeping... call back at 7AM and they are there again. They can't even pay themselves every month let alone employees to do all of that - as as owners they are the last in line. I keep telling them - that's how you dig out of a recession... an order at a time, a new program at a time, a new employee at a time.

The Resignation Letter of Foreign Service Officer Matthew Hoh...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/hp/ssi/wpc/ResignationLetter.pdf

ok

you asked for it

top ten reasons why home prices are going up

10 those damn banks keep buying reo s from each other

9 house flipper is no longer a four letter word

8 goldman executives now need a summer, winter and spring home to get away from the fall in new york city

7 i used to invest in prepaid debticards but extra homes just edged that out

6 i getting in on the ground floor of the next bubble

5 if we dont buy these homes then the chinese will

4 the 8k dollars were just to good to pass up

3 i bought a house got 8 k sold it to my inlaws they got 8 k and theyre selling it to the grand kids for an additional 8k...love this country

2 whtay ya mean the shiller index whent up...i thought i was buying at the bottom

1 and the number one reason so many people are buying homes and boosting the price

im spending my dollars now on RE and stocks before a dollar wont buy a bag of shit

NYSE Euronext Halts ING Groep Shares in Europe on Trading Surge
By Nandini Sukumar

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- ING Groep NV stock was suspended in Europe today after a “huge concentration” of orders overwhelmed computers on the Euronext system. Trading will resume tomorrow, according to exchange owner NYSE Euronext.

More than 99 million shares in the biggest Dutch financial- services company changed hands before a computer problem halted the stock at 4:30 p.m. in Amsterdam, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Volume was almost six times the daily average for the last six months, the data show.

Trading jumped in Amsterdam-based ING after it agreed yesterday to sell its insurance units and raise 7.5 billion euros in a rights issue to secure European Union approval for a government bailout. The stock tumbled 6.1 percent to 8.98 euros in Europe after plunging 18 percent yesterday in trading that exceeded 91 million shares.
NYSE Euronext Halts ING Groep Shares in Europe on Trading Surge - Bloomberg.com

shill wrote:

The Resignation Letter of Foreign Service Officer Matthew Hoh...

Bah... Obviously, NOT a team player. Which means, not a REAL Merican. REAL Mericans never question.

LOVE IT OR LEAVE IT, HIPPY! AND GET A HAIR CUT!!!

dryfly wrote:

the panic is over now the wait begins.

Don't panic, but if you do panic, panic first?
.
Sounds like the business world is an a high-stakes poker match. Bail before the recovery, and you are the 'goat for not having the spine. Bail after the bailing begins, and you are the 'goat for not foreseeing the obvious. Sounds like business is in the same position as the Fed and everyone else.
.
Maybe that situation is what makes a "depression"...

Remember that U.K. article just said they weren't giving out across-the-board rent concessions on existing contracts any more. There are just one step above as bad as it gets.

I personally.. think that story is the worst piece of BS propaganda straight from the desk of Gordon 'is-a-moron' Brown. From all my contacts in the UK the business environment is getting worse. I quite literally just finished taking to a friend who runs an office catering biz for various cross section of business clients. She's regaled me with stories of her clients cutting staffing, one company going from 3 floors in an office block to 1 etc. Also a corporate solicitor ( aka. attorney ) who specialized in HR law being busy as all hell making sure the T's and crossed and I's are dotted of termination notifications, there are some who are of the opinion European law will eventually outlaw the firing of workers. The UK folks I know are making the worst doomers here seem like hopium addicts Wink
~splat

I see Bill Gross has called the top for us: Pimco's Gross calls top of rally in risky assets - MarketWatch

"The six-month rally in risk assets -- while still continuously supported by Fed and Treasury policymakers -- is likely at its pinnacle," Gross wrote in his monthly market commentary.

yagij - a lot of it I think is due to Hedgies & PE types who bought in at much higher valuations w/ OPM & can't get out without admitting to their principals & investors how badly they got smoked. And the Hedgies & PE folks have every incentive to stretch it out as long as they can considering they were paid 2&20 do this... still getting the '2' even if there are currently no gains to attach the '20' to.

What a crooked scam...

Gross says, "Sold to You, Ben":

Gross, manager of the Pimco Total Return Fund (PTTRX 10.88, -0.02, -0.18%) , the world's largest bond fund, has been busy unwinding exposure to mortgage-related securities. He dumped roughly $30 billion of such assets in September, leaving his fund with its smallest portion of mortgage holdings in more than four and a half years.

How much did the Federal Reserve buy in September, again?

European Central Bank (Eurosystem) Opinion, October 2009-
'on the issuance of special government bonds to credit institutions.'
1.1 Purpose
'In particular, eligible credit institutions to which the special government bonds have been allocated are to come under an obligation to use the proceeds of the liquidity raised for the granting of credit to domestic households and small and medium businesses...'
(Damage control or too little too late to unlock 'credit freeze' for consumers and small/medium businesses.)
http://www.ecb.int/ecb/legal/pdf/en_con_2009_78.pdf

dryfly wrote:

The only way to go is 'bootstrap' in this environment - do everything via sweat equity & cash flow the growth. I'm working w/ a company doing that now... hell the owners are not only running the shop - they are also making some of the parts, doing the admin work, driving the delivery truck, cleaning the bathrooms & doing construction [redoing the QA lab]. I call them at 11PM they are still there quoting, ordering, sweeping... call back at 7AM and they are there again. They can't even pay themselves every month let alone employees to do all of that - as as owners they are the last in line. I keep telling them - that's how you dig out of a recession... an order at a time, a new program at a time, a new employee at a time.

Okay, first I'm stealing that verbatim.

Now, the cynical. How do they compete with all their peers with any number of tax, credit, subsidy advantages? I'm not going to lay my life on the line to prove proof of concept only to see my vision co-opted by muni/state/fed choice of winners.

Wisdom Speaker wrote:

I see Bill Gross has called the top for us: Pimco's Gross calls top of rally in risky assets - MarketWatch

"The six-month rally in risk assets -- while still continuously supported by Fed and Treasury policymakers -- is likely at its pinnacle," Gross wrote in his monthly market commentary.

But skies the limit for bonds - right?

mock turtle wrote:

3 i bought a house got 8 k sold it to my inlaws they got 8 k and theyre selling it to the grand kids for an additional 8k...love this country

rips his chest hair out with frustration, goes Incredible Hulk green and screams AAUUUUUUUUUGH

This is so stupid. We're introducing legislation to handle failures of large institutions because we wouldn't allow market discipline to do it. We're introducing legislation to sweeten the prospects of buying homes because the other 263 subsidies just weren't juicy or exploitable enough. We forced FASB to change its accounting rules because the market was being too cruel.

I wish, wish, WISH we were as capitalistic and enterprise oriented as Communist China. Instead we've got a corporatocracy of idiots buying off other elected idiots. AAauughh!

I don't know if anyone here follows DELL. This is only based on my observations. I really think this company must be going through some huge internal changes. Either that, or they just want to self destruct the PC sales end. It has all the feel of a company breaking apart.

Besides my earlier problems...

This is the time of the year when we do our big purchases. I call my account rep, just got an email from her yesterday, her phone is disconnected with no forwarding. I call back to the "Team" receptionist who then sends me to the wrong person. They in turn put me on hold forever and then disconnect me....

This has been going there for over a year. It just never gets better...

I like this Gold and Silver dip, I think I'll buy.

dryfly wrote:

But skies the limit for bonds - right?

I'd have to read what he originally wrote, instead of the MarketSpin article... but I suspect you know that I know, and I know that you know, that longer-term bonds are also risk assets. Especially zeros! Nothing like having to wait for 20-40 years to get your money...

FIFO. Dasher is Dooooooooooooooom!!!

I don't know if anyone here follows DELL

Didn't the company get flooded with MBA 'geniuses' a few years back that were going to leverage the brand integrity and provide 'value'. aka. fak the company up as quickly as possible.
~splat

IRS Sets Up Special Unit to Traget Super-Rich

Anyone earning over $50k/year right ?
~splat

Hi, guys, I hope I will get a 10% discount on my rent.

Got up at 5am for Aries, didn't go off, could have for a few minutes, but
then a ship got in the area, then weather, etc, etc. Will try again tomorrow.

we took a quilt and I took a pillow and slept under the stars for a couple
of hours. No bugs, pleasant breeze perfect temp.
SIL and hub say I snore. Noooooooo!

I think DELL is having problems selling PC's at the number they need/want too. They Jjust bought Perot Sys so I think they may be trying to do an IBM and quit doing hardware

dryfly wrote:

a lot of it I think is due to Hedgies & PE types who bought in at much higher valuations w/ OPM & can't get out without admitting to their principals & investors how badly they got smoked. And the Hedgies & PE folks have every incentive to stretch it out as long as they can considering they were paid 2&20 do this

Again, maybe this dynamic is what makes a "depression". The hedgies & PE folks are sitting tight and holding their breaths. If one of them blinks, then there will be a shortage of red ink as the losses mount. I'm almost thankful I don't have enough money to find myself locked into one of their transactions... Puzzled

ndk wrote:

wish, wish, WISH we were as capitalistic and enterprise oriented as Communist China.

It's that democracy thing that's gotten in the way.

shill wrote:

IRS Sets Up Special Unit to Traget Super-Rich

Willie Sutton's old saying comes to mind.


ndk (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 10/27/2009 - 2:28 pm

I wish, wish, WISH we were as capitalistic and enterprise oriented as Communist China. Instead we've got a corporatocracy of idiots and buying off other idiots. AAauughh!

Who is Joan Guilt? This is anti-life, and you know where anti-life leads...

Dell can't seem to decide which pipeline they want. The margins in hardware are so ruthless, it is hard to support a sales force, but you can't get in at a lot of companies without one. HP has so many of the locals locked and seems to treat their vendors well. Dell hasn't found a way to make their vendors money selling their product, so they are SOL in a large market.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Now, the cynical. How do they compete with all their peers with any number of tax, credit, subsidy advantages?

I can't speak for dry's company, but I can speak for mine: Those tax, credit ,and subsidies advantages makes a company slower and less hungry. Fear of hunger forces a company to run in directions that other companies don't notice, or pickup on crumbs that others think are too small.

Related: A number of folks asked me why we don't apply for SBIR (etc). My answer is: I have never met a company that started writing gov't grants who ended up with something other than gov't-grant-writing as their core competency.

Final item: I firmly believe that internal corporate turf wars is a screaming sign of overstaffing, and there needs to be a layoff. If employees are begging to have somebody else do some job or another cuz their plate is full, then you are probably just one person shy of the right employee number.

nova wrote:

They Jjust bought Perot Sys so I think they may be trying to do an IBM and quit doing hardware

I agree with your thought process, and I think Dell will get hung out to dry if they try it. IBM for all its faults is sitting on a treasure trove of development and ideas. Dell knows how to contract out to 3rd world countries and get the most use out of the cheapest grade of plastic...

Rob Dawg wrote:

Now, the cynical. How do they compete with all their peers with any number of tax, credit, subsidy advantages? I'm not going to lay my life on the line to prove proof of concept only to see my vision co-opted by muni/state/fed choice of winners.

State doesn't even know they are there. That's the way they like it too. All their IP is proprietary inside the shop basic know how - nothing they have to report via patent office so just keep it to themselves & they'll be fine...

Secondly this strategy is 'low cost'... even the Asians are having trouble beating their prices. You might ask how they eventually 'win' - well they are running at about 40% capacity... and basically cash flow neutral now. There are some machines they need now to improve capability [banks looked at their cost structure & gave them the 'go' for them - should be on the floor next week]... Then in about six months we'll need a couple additional machines for additional capacity... but again we'll be fully cost competitive AND profitable when we need them.

Lastly - we've booked the orders [that was my job] and now is roll out. Took longer than we hoped but its happening. Someday I might write this up as a case study - its been that much of an eye opener for me as well as for them [the owners are Gen Xers and had no idea what a real recession looked like or how to dig out - they'll be pros at this stuff by the end of this year].

So Dawg - when you going to be making those composite parts? Need sales in the Midwest?

NOTaREALmerican wrote:

It's that democracy thing that's gotten in the way.

Being pickled in zombie bank embalming fluids seems to have -- uh, interesting effects on a psyche. My own organization is going zombie right now thanks to a combo monopolistic love affair between Google and Obama and indiscriminate government grants. I see you as an extremely disturbing vision of my future self. Thank you, 'Merican Juju from the future.

Obama & Google (a love story) - Oct. 22, 2009

shill wrote:

Resignation Letter of Foreign Service Officer Matthew Hoh.

For those who didn't follow the link, Hoh explains that he's resigning from the foreigh service in Afghanistan (after having served in Iraq in both military and civilian capacities) because our effort there isn't showing any signs of being able to achieve the stated goals. And he's right, but undoubtedly the stated goals are not the true, "double secret" goals. I've been reading a very interesting book ("The next 100 years") which postulates that the true aim of U.S. activities in Iraq and Iran is geopolitical, in the deep realpolitik sense, to destabilize the Islamic world. According to this book, we don't want to win; we even don't want there to be a unified winner. What we actually want is to keep them all tangled up fighting amongst themselves.

Lenovo didn't make much out of their purchase of IBM's personal division, at least in the US. Given their price points, I would think they would be able to take over the micro to small business segment. Of course you need the servicing organization on the ground (see HP) to get that done.

One gem from that Sprott article is

The real shocker that we discovered some time ago is that the FDIC ‘funds’ were never even held in a segregated bank account – the fees collected from the banks are accounted for as a part of the government’s general revenues that go towards military spending, bailouts, interest costs and other government programs. The FDIC ‘fund’ merely
consisted of IOU’s from the general revenues accounts.

I guess we shouldn't be surprised. Social security monies are run like this. I guess it might account for why we had a quiet couple of BFFs... Dooooooooooooooom!!!

I think you are right about DELL. I also don't think it is going to work out. Like a lot of others, they were good for awhile and then they lost it.

Jonathan wrote:

Social security monies are run like this.

Well, the "new normal" is that accounting just gets in the way of reality. Looks like the government was way ahead of the game on this one. Just throw all the loot into one huge pile and a use what you need.

I can't find the polls.

I think that when you say you are putting the loot in a big
pile what is really happening is that there is not loot anymore.
Sheila B. said, according to my fishwrapper that she had never
taken a cent from Treasury.

lawyerliz wrote:

I can't find the polls.

Under "Toys" on the blue toolbar. Between "Calculated Risk" & FAQ.

Wisdom Speaker wrote 12:41 pm

I've been reading a very interesting book ("The next 100 years") which postulates that the true aim of U.S. activities in Iraq and Iran is geopolitical, in the deep realpolitik sense, to destabilize the Islamic world. According to this book, we don't want to win; we even don't want there to be a unified winner. What we actually want is to keep them all tangled up fighting amongst themselves.


exactly
and
as
portrayed
in the movie
syriana
most excellent

remember the real reason we invaded iraq

saddam was our boy when we backed him attacking the iranians..8 year war killed 3 million

and he was selling with petro dollars

but when he got frisky with the isreallis and talked about denominating oil in other currencies

he was dead

lawyerliz wrote:

I think that when you say you are putting the loot in a big
pile what is really happening is that there is not loot anymore.

But, that's only if you use old-school Accounting rules. With the new Gangsta Accounting rules, you're not outa loot until Hu says ya are.

This is the major reason we are in the area at all:

Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The world needs a police force ( so it thinks)...unfortunately we are it.
Ciao
MS

dryfly wrote:

they'll be pros at this stuff by the end of this year

Are they ready to sell out? Sounds like they will command a high price from PEs wanting to loot, err... "maximize" the value of their operations.

mock turtle wrote:

What we actually want is to keep them all tangled up fighting amongst themselves.

Worked for England. There's always got to be ONE Empire in the world. When there's a world-wide male-5th-appendage void some country will step up to fill it (the void - with their 5th-appendage). There's not much point in complaining about males acting like males. If it wasn't us, it would be somebody else.

If it wasn't us, it would be somebody else.

Well, we can rule out Tibet I think

Testimony - Tarullo, State of the banking industry, Oct. 14, 2009
Community and small banks-
'These banks - with assets of $10 billion or less representing almost 7000 banks...reported a $2.7 billion loss in the 2nd quarter...More than one in four of these banks reported a net loss...Earnings at these banks were also substantially affected by the FDIC special assessment during the 2nd quarter.'
(Live by the FDIC...die by the FDIC.)
FRB: Testimony--Tarullo, State of the banking industry--October 14, 2009

Speaking of accounting gimmicks, the FDIC FAQ on Pre-payment that came out today. page is a joke.

"8. Isn’t this the same as borrowing from the industry without charging interest?

Some may view borrowings and prepayment of assessments as conceptually similar, but there are some important differences. A borrowing would be voluntary and require the DIF to pay interest. Prepaid assessments would be mandatory and there would be no interest component."

Laughing out loud Thanks for clearing that up, US government.

But skies the limit for bonds - right?

Dryfly,

I'll eat a bug if pensions can squeeze 8% long term returns out of a market with bonds yielding less than 5% and stocks that are over-valued by ~ 25%.

Inflating is a LOT harder than most think.

MS,
Yeah but we aren't 'policing' the opium...

OT

I drive by few car dealers everyday here in the OC (SoCal).

I noticed recently that the dealer lots are not full. I remember that the new and used cars filled up every spare space pretty much just few weeks ago but now the lots look very sparce. One dealer has a 4 story parking structure and it used to be full but now at least one of the floor seems completely empty (they have a big sign covering up most of the floor so I can't really tell)....

nova wrote:

Well, we can rule out Tibet I think

On the other hand, no one thinks much of Mongolia right now either, or Greece, and yet they both had their big turn way back when... One of the key lessons of geopolitics from the book I mentioned is that, every 20 years, the world changes in ways no one anticipated 20 years prior. Nothing but Black Swans! But nevertheless, I agree with you about Tibet...

Still can't find toys to vote in inflation polls.

Liz feels stupid.

We have lots of bugs here in Florida.

which type would you like to try?

lawyerliz wrote:

Still can't find toys to vote in inflation polls.

Give this a try:
Polls | Hoocoodanode?

Edit: FYI toys is in the blue bar at the top of your screen (if you have the newish layout. Don't know about the old traditional one.)

lawyerliz wrote:

Still can't find toys to vote in inflation polls.

It's named poorly: Are you a: | Hoocoodanode?

So, I see Elmo! has just given Its not easy being green another Vampire Squid from Hell . But I'm wondering, how many distribution days do the markets have to post, before Its not easy being green gives up and the overdue 15-20% correction sets in? The 200-day averages are a long way down from here...

Oh, read your post again. No bugs for you!

NaRm,
Military 'jargon' is...'we gotta a big ____, we might as well swing it.'

merchants of fear wrote:

Military 'jargon' is...'we gotta a big ____, we might as well swing it.'

Yup. Just one of the 4-f's of male life. It will never change. It's swingin' on wall street, swingin' in the middle-east. Swingin everywhere da males are eyein' each other.

Angry Saver wrote:

I'll eat a bug if pensions can squeeze 8% long term returns out of a market with bonds yielding less than 5% and stocks that are over-valued by ~ 25%.

AS - I was thinking it was Pimco talking their book - saying stocks are over-valued but not bonds - no way... they are both 'risk assets' depending one what you own & leverage. My opinion is that the long bond is as over-valued as the S&P 500.

Jermey Grantham's latest missive is one of the most scathing indictments of our financial system and its architects that I have read.

Warning : Do not read if you suffer from depression or an unnaturally sunny disposition.

THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST » » WILL IGNORING THE MISTAKES OF THE PAST RESULT IN A 20 YEAR BEAR MARKET?

(apologies if already posted.)

When common stocks yield appreciably more in dividends than do Treasuries, to compensate me for the risk I'm taking on, I'll care about the equity market. Until then, it's a casino for people who like to draw lines on graphs.

But doing the math, at 8 million doses per week, we will have 120 million doses around the end of January-first week of February, which is when the average peak % of outpatient visits for ILI (Influenza Like Illness) occurs...though this is not the average flu season (the current rate of % ILI is 7.1%, which for week 41 would be a 44 sigma event were we to apply a normal distribution like say, a Wall St analyst would):

US swine flu vaccine outlook improving, CDC says
By MIKE STOBBE (AP) – 47 minutes ago

ATLANTA — More than 22 million doses of swine flu vaccine are available now, and most Americans should soon find it easier to get their dose, U.S. health officials said Tuesday.

"We're beginning to get to significant increases in the availability," said Dr. Thomas Frieden, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, at a briefing.

Last week there were just 14 million doses on hand, despite predictions that as many as 120 million doses would be ready by mid-October. The slow supply trickle has frustrated Americans, who have stood in line for hours in some parts of the country.
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