ATA Truck Tonnage Index Declines in September
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Mon, 10/26/2009 - 7:29am (159 comments)
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What tanked the markets?
No need for the NAFTA super highway from Mexico to Canada
ATA Truck Tonnage Index Declines in September-
Bob Costello's name is ringing bells in my head but I can't remember. Sounds like this is mixed picture to me, unrevealing.
Continuing the recession discussion:
We currently have record-breaking peacetime deficits and "extend and pretend" covering the entire financial sector. Under those circumstances a recession is almost impossible. I don't expect a further leg down until those wear off; late 2010 for the stimulus and probably about the same time for extend and pretend. So, a big downleg starting then, probably a bit late as the politicians will tweak it so as not to happen early enough to influence the election.
edit: until then, very tepid growth, accompanied by asset bubbles from all the liquidity.
Oxtail wrote:
Someone needs to do a re-write of Black Friday
Oxtail wrote:
Wow, that is quite the sudden change in sentiment... Dollar moving up abruptly too.
Something at ING maybe?
Somebody get the paddles stat!!!
I can't get a pulse on Frazier and pupils are non responsive.
I'm thinking your number have to be off by several orders of magnitude-
Cinco-x,
Think again.
Re: Bangledesh. More than 156 million people packed into an area the size of Iowa!
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bg.html
~ 4 people/acre.
Fair Economist wrote:
They didn't do very well tweaking before the 2008 election. I think there will be a lot of negative news between now and March.
currency intervention........and we may have another outside day. Yea THAT'S a sure sign of stabilization.
Ciao
MS
Ummmmmm. No. Expediency ≠ statistically defensible practices. It's nice that they recognize and try to account for survivor's bias but while I don't have a better suggestion I also know a poor assumption when I see one. I also suspect that their survey base is weighted towards the larger, more established businesses that have already been through the fire a few times.
I don't expect a further leg down until those wear off; late 2010 for the stimulus and probably about the same time for extend and pretend.
Fair Economist.
Good points. We are currently "benefitting" from one of the biggest stimulus packages in history. But the markets should dicount the future . I believe they will.
Angry Saver wrote:
Saw your reply on the last thread, but couldn't reproduce the results; I calculated 1.78 per acre from the numbers on the CIA factbook page. Must be using the wrong conversion for acres/sq.mile- Thanks...
I must say I'm surprised, since I always thought they were packed in there @$$-to-@$$, elbow-to-elbow-
Frazier rebranded as Glass Joe.
Could this be why: Bond chaos?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atZat.tLctw0
What's the comp for a few other countries?
Context might help. 4 people / acre ... hmmm.
Can't you feed 6 people from a really good acre of land? Assuming the land is dry / farmed out, 4 people per acre sounds like it's way above the carrying capacity of the land.
US density 0.05/acre. Yes, 4/acre is cheek by jowl.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Hmmm....I thought that bonds went up when the market went down, as money from the stock markets got transferred into the bond markets. Maybe not, or maybe it's the consequence of excessive leverage.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
I guess I would not expect a dollar rally in the face of a bond surprise. Except in the event of Fed intervention and even then, printing dollars to buy bonds seems like it should devalue the currency.
Cinco-X wrote:
I think (not sure) thats a bingo.
I guess this is a "Truckless Recovery."
Jonathan wrote:
Bangladesh is at the delta of the Ganges, so the soil should be continually replenished, but the Ganges might be so polluted that this benefit is negated. On the Equator, they should be able to get in many crops per year, depending on what they grow. However, my recollection from years back was that their big export was hemp for making manilla rope (or something like that), so the soil might not be suitable for food production, Additionally, they get a lot of ocean storms blowing in, and excessive salt accumulation might be a problem.
Citigroup and BoA are getting crushed today on high volume, something afoot?
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Remember there are states out West that are very lightly populated, and that sorta skews the average-
Density by itself is not THE key factor to poverty and surviva, I don't think. Don't HongKong, Mimbai, Shangai , NYC, Singapore and other big cities have higher than 4/acre density? Its the lack of Capital, isn't it?
Sanity? They deserve to be crushed like filthy cock roaches.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Mish says Citi's goin' down like Frazier and he's referencing KD article from last week. Don't know about BoA-
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Not sure, but several press organizations are reporting new legislation to be introduced to reign in TBTF banks and put them under greater oversight.
What are your inputs for the land productivity? Capital equipment, fertilizer and pesticide inputs will all have huge impacts on the productivity of the land...additionally, the labor intensive approach would seem likely to yield lower net calories (as you burned a bunch of them working the land by hand during the season)...
Comrade Kristina wrote:
I think cockroach is one word. But I like your spelling better.
Terry wrote:
Grater oversight! LOL, we can only hope, and the rest of them should be put under greater oversight
I'd love to know whose selling in those volumes....maybe a shot in the dark is GS?
Freudian slip?
Fair Economist wrote:
A bond strike could throw a damper on things sooner than late 2010 - that is if the bond vigilantes can find some spine and stand up to the worlds central banks. Interest rates start running away then even stimulus can't plug that hole. Not expecting it just saying it is possible.
Ahhh it's the return of the
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
With the American Banker's Association convention going on in Chicago, maybe one of the keynotes said someting that scared people.
energyecon wrote:
I'm not arguing with the CIA Factbook; just registering a bit of surprise. As Rob has stated, 4/acre is "cheek by jowl".
I really wonder about Mish sometimes. There's no way the Feds are going to let Citi fail, even if they have to just print money and not record it (which they already have a track record for doing). Mish is too desperate for the Flaming Sword of Justice to wreak havoc of Evil Doers.
SNAFU wrote:
All this is assuming you are going to have 85 million barrels of oil a day forever, as oil is what makes survival on this level possible.
I heard there were protests planned for the event, I haven't checked the news today, wonder how many turned out.
Anyone lived thru a NYC garbage strike? The worse was the Chinese restaurants, after about a week. The rats, they will always be with you.
So do we end up closing flat or up 100?
Cinco-X wrote:
Remember there are States back east that are very heavily populated and that sorta skews the average-
The US can feed itself to the point of obesity. Bangladesh cannot come close to sustainable agricultural output. We know the 4/ac is to high and that 0.05/ac is not.
Clearly things are far more complex than described but this isn't the place to debate exurban nations.
Leftys Liquors Lubricants and Tarp and Bank wrote:
My daughter complains about going into Boston's China Town even now, especially the smelly alley off Peach street near the Rainbow Cafe. 10 days w/o garbage pickup must've been horrendous-
According to Marketwatch, the IRS is going to audit each return that claims the homebuyers tax credit due to massive fraud:
Home-buyer tax-credit refunds delayed for months TaxWatch - MarketWatch
Just one datapoint:
Health Care Reform 57% Say Health Care Plan Will Increase Costs, 53% Say It Will Reduce Quality of Care, 45% Favor Passage
One other thing regarding the 'recovery' meme'... the Chi Fed & ATA say the same thing - the pipeline is filling again though not very fast [makes sense given companies ERP systems which can track inventory & draw down from mine to store shelves - at lest in theory any way]... the key will be [as CR put it]...
If the shelves don't empty the recovery will stop dead in its stimulated tracks. It needs 'pull through'... you can't assume you can build it and they will come any more. Never really could except for the MEW heyday years.
energyecon wrote:
Even if you could get subsistence farmers to produce at an equivalent level as industrial farmers (which is highly unlikely, and would demand huge caloric inputs), without support programs subsistence farmers hold on to a large portion of their harvest to feed their families, use for next years seed, and as a hedge against future productivity problems. Since this saved harvest isn't stored to the standards of industrial storage, it will spoil, be eaten by rats/mice, and generally lose value over time.
Be wary of productivity claims for subsistence farmers; those guys market only whats absolutely necessary and keep the rest, simply because they need to hedge their risk. Without credit, insurance, and similar infrastructure, subsistence agriculture is not an engine for growth.
Mr Slippery wrote:
That would be delicious. And chilling on claiming the credit, if it comes with an audit.
Stocks turn lower as rising dollar hits oil prices Stocks give up early gains as rising dollar hurts commodity prices; tech manages small gains
Will more bankers commit suicide, or go to jail?
Picower, Sued by Madoff Trustee, Died of Heart Attack (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
"Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Jeffry Picower, the philanthropist alleged to have withdrawn more than $7.2 billion from Bernard Madoff’s investment company, was found dead yesterday at his mansion in Palm Beach, Florida, according to police. He was 67.
Picower’s wife, Barbara, told dispatchers she found him “at the bottom of their swimming pool” at their oceanfront estate shortly after noon, Palm Beach police said. He was taken to Good Samaritan Hospital, where he was pronounced dead about 80 minutes later. Police are investigating the cause of death.
“There is going to be an autopsy done,” said Sue Jaffe, a receptionist at the Palm Beach County Medical Examiner’s Office. “I believe it’s going to be done this morning. It’s under investigation.”
My friend owns a pallet business and saw a considerable uptick through the summer, peaking in Sept. Oct was "ugly" as in, "we are in trouble, ugly".
dryfly wrote:
This bears repeating. It won't only be the kids waiting expectantly for Christmas this year.
Eventually Citi will be put into JPM or GS. Of course it will be backstopped by you and me.
That's how the playbook has been used....park the crap somewhere else for a time until it has to go into the next "bucket".
BTW I am absolutely amazed at the strength in AMZN......says alot for programmed buying doesn'y it?
Ciao
MS
City, BoA, Chase, Wells,... are the topic of TBTF in Congress. Lots of chatters on how to break them up over the weekend. It was the hawkish bravado of some Fed President a while back on exit strategy that sets the stage for this run-up. Now it's the resolution on TBTF that will reset the market and sets up another run. The traders from Goldman, Chase,... need to make some money.
Cinco-I don't buy it. I think its bonds at the core. Oil/dollar and decoupling from fundamentals and at unsupportable levels on speculative positions. We'll see, who knows, this is one sick economy thats still in the ICU on a ventilator-bad alpha waves too.
Wow! There's been almost a 200pt turnaround on the DJIA today
'ing
Happy
It's probably for show.
Judging from the last crash, the only way the Feds are gonna restart the bubble is with a lot more fraud.
Words != actions.
TPTB have made it clear. Shorting will be punished. Any shorting. Shorting == crimethink.
In the local paper here it was said he was in very poor health so it really could just be an old guy that had serious health problems drowned in his pool.
Legend
P&I Production and Income
EU&H Employment, Unemployment, and Hours
C&H Personal Consumption and Housing
SO&I Sales, Orders, and Inventories
Dates P&I EU&H C&H SO&I CFNAI CFNAI-MA3
2009:03 -0.98 -1.39 -0.61 -0.39 -3.36 -3.33
2009:04 -0.41 -0.85 -0.62 -0.28 -2.16 -2.67
2009:05 -0.65 -0.97 -0.53 -0.30 -2.44 -2.66
2009:06 -0.33 -0.74 -0.50 -0.22 -1.80 -2.13
2009:07 0.39 -0.36 -0.49 0.05 -0.42 -1.56
2009:08 0.49 -0.61 -0.38 -0.14 -0.65 -0.96
2009:09 0.27 -0.53 -0.52 -0.03 -0.81 -0.63
P&I, and C&H decreased MoM, along with the MoM CFNAI. This shows C4C and FTHB wearing out without engaging the inventory cycle. SO&I was negative in for the second month in a row in September.
Expect Q3 GDP to be sub 2%, if it is above 2% then expect a harsher reversal in Q4 due to reversal of exports/government gdp growth and/or gdp revisions due to inventory. It's pretty much impossible to have 3% GDP with this amount of inventory depletion. Private Fixed Investment should be flat, PCE was all taken up by inventory.
So we'll have flat/declining exports and government spending in Q4, and they have been carrying GDP all year long. Inventories will be lower, private fixed investment might be modestly positive (year end budget spend, windows 7, ... at least the QoQ declines are probably done). But PCE will probably be flat or negative coming off of C4C and FTHB, credit cards are being canceled, ...
That says to me that those 'recovery' plans every business has on their shelf, are going to stay on the shelf during Q4. We can already see this in retail with lean inventories and low seasonal hiring. So if we don't bring on those recovery plans, and start rebuilding inventories in Q4 that is terrible news. Government spending will be falling as stimpack spends less each month, and state&local governments get around to cutting 20% of their budgets.
Meanwhile, housing prices shouldn't do to well due to the sales mix, and the 7mn+ foreclosure pipeline, that banks have hinted they are planning to liquidate this winter as they give up on HAMP. If house prices are falling, it won't matter if the NBER says the recession is over. We're either in for a long recession with a lull in the middle, or it will be a double dip. It's possible that the inventory + fixed investment cycle can still be engaged, but even if that happens the recession would resume within 18 months (of that cycle beginning, not the recession date)
it really could just be an old guy that had serious health problems drowned in his pool.
After shooting himself in the back of the head, five times.
Rate This Game Changer (Current Rank: 1)
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
I rarely believe the MSM when they pronounce the "reasons" the market rose or sunk on a given day. That was merely pasted as an FYI for those interested.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Well respectfully, I'm not sure we ever really got the first part of the V completed, technically if one believes fed numbers I suppose. For main street, I say its a "J".
deanfv wrote:
Has this been unusual for his business? Stores begin stocking for Xmas in August, so you'd think there'd be a fall off in shipments by Oct.
actually jute- for making bags and rope.
Their big problem being essentially the delta for two major rivers is the rising sea levels.
Yeah, I'm just too chatty from too much coffee. I'll get pigged before 1pm. lol. I have a late lunch date with the husband later though.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
I'd suggest the mirror image of a "J"
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
FWIW - I talk w/ a petty large number middle managers at a wide variety of mfg firms and none of them expect a real recovery if by that you mean return to 2006 levels. What they expect is they've made all the cuts they need to make to remain cash flow positive & maybe even show a little earnings. The 'recovery meme' is media hype... I know of no company internally expecting to hire a lot or expand a lot UNLESS they take it out of the hide of their competition [some I know are doing exactly that as their competition goes T/U]... YMMV.
I forget thesource, but not all that long ago a respected economist said it would be lower case: wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww
MS wrote:
You don't think both of those firms would turn down taking Citi as a whole? My guess it they might take pieces.
Cinco-X wrote:
The MSM media will often provide the same reason for the market going up and down. Truth is more buyers than sellers or vice versa is not sufficient for them so they are seeking a co-relation where none exists and which only gives the perception of analysis. e.g. if stocks went down because bond yields went up- that doesn't explain why bond yields went up.
what the hell is happening today? market rolled over, treasuries are down, dollar up modestly, oil down. we're looking a little wobbly.
Nanoo-Nanoo (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 10/26/2009 - 11:17 am
I forget thesource, but not all that long ago a respected economist said it would be lower case: wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww
the look: wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww
the feeling: OwOwOwOwOwOwOwOwOwOwOwOwOwOwOwOwOwOwOw
dryfly wrote:
Any of those firms looking to take share from foreign manufacturers? Has the value of the dollar changed enough?
My guess it they might take pieces.
Exactly. GS will get the tasty morsels. JoeSixPack will get the burning bag of dogshit that remains (via the FDIC).
"they will take pieces"
Most likely that is when the "good bank-bad bank" plans get put into play. Of course we will get stuck with the bad bank. See Maiden Lane
Ciao
MS
MS wrote:
Two birds, one stone: BAC + C = BACCstoped TBTF that is also TTTF.
And the OwOwOwies Eric-spot on.
Now who's wearing the tinfoil?!
Iceland’s McDonald’s Corp. restaurants will be closed at the end of the month after the collapse of the krona eroded profits at the fast-food chain, McDonald’s franchise holder Lyst Ehf said.
McDonald’s in Iceland, which imports most of the ingredients it uses in its meals, will shut after costs doubled over the past year, Lyst said in an e-mailed statement today. The franchise holder said it doesn’t expect the situation to change in the short term.
McDonald’s Closes in Iceland After Krona Collapse (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Dryfly,
recalling 500 workers? In the fine print another 2500 were reclassified as being relationship severed.
Did you see the CAT
broward wrote:
I can't see how tinfoil is going to stop five bullets. We're going to have to start fashioning ourselves Kevlar helmets. With some sort of silvery lining.
I pulled this narrative off of TOS:
"The Euro dropped nearly a percent from peak following dollar-bullish comments from one of China's senior central bankers. As reported by Reuters, the comments helped to reduce concern over a planned expansion of Euro and Yen purchases over dollars for the country's foreign exchange reserves. That plan was deemed to be "long term" and aimed at avoiding the creation of short-term dollar volatility. As the Euro fell and the dollar rose, commodities and stocks dropped in tight correlation. The Euro is currently coming up off the lows of the session."
As for Citi => Mish might be on to something but for all the wrong reasons... instead of market forces working & justice upheld... how about the gov break up Citi a la AIG and show they mean 'business' with the breaking up of a TBTF bank?... That of course would only be the PR message because in reality the pieces would all be gobbled up by BOA, JPM and of course...the
. So the message should be clear - TBTF still holds EXCEPT that if there are even bigger TBTF then you could be 'assimilated'... banking regulation The Borg would approve of.
Ah-HAH! Bond sale ON.
I did my part to stimulate the economy. Our nanny starts work today. While getting the paperwork in order, I was pleasantly surprised that both the IRS and Illinois make it really easy to transmit all the required taxes and withholding needed for legal employment.
As for higher-paying employment, I know that a few places here have started hiring again. But it's all knowledge-based. Software and lawyers and such. You are plain screwed if you work in a factory.
some investor guy wrote:
Domestically - ABSOLUTELY - it happening now. Export into markets they both contest... not so much.
And it is ALL the dollar - 100% dollar weakness driven.
Cinco-X wrote:
It's pretty obvious a lot of the articles are pre-written and then the blanks are filled in later. I love when Yahoo puts up a headline like "Market rises because of upbeat jobs data" when the market is green, then when it goes red it just changes the article to read "Market down despite upbeat jobs data". You know they're really lazy when you read a headline like "Market down because of upbeat jobs data".
dryfly wrote:
With the current exchange rate volatility, I think anyone contemplating developing a new export program into a foreign country would be nuts. However, if there are already existing channels in place, I could see expansion as the exchange rate becomes favourable.
But that's my thesis, and I'm open to criticism.
That's got to be one of the few places where McDs imports most ingredients. I've noticed that all over Europe they have prominent advertising in the restaurants bragging about the high percentage of ingredients purchased from domestic farmers.
Pretty good strategy. Not only is it a currency hedge, but it makes it really hard for the anti-globalists to protest against them and it surely has to be really popular with local farmers who have been losing ground for decades.
Wow! Went from 8 to 1 in about a week. Good writing and good comments, evidence based, hardly any hate mongering by the commentariats, whats not to like!
Yes I did. There will be a lot more of that. Some call back and a lot more permanently severed. Most companies perm 100% right away then hire back new if they need to restaff - make previous hires reapply. Cat & Deere & CHN can't so that due tot he union contract... so perm them indefinitely and then wait for the new contract to make it so.
The 'recovery' will be from a deep valley to a plateau well below the previous summits. At least as far out as I can see. For once 'right sizing' really is the appropriate terminology for what is going on.
I agree noob - 100%.
Nanoo-Nanoo
A recession is a period of ongoing decline, anything flat and up is not considered recession. So think of it as the negative side of a smoothed first derivative.
dryfly
Good points. How could I forget the slack capacity and employment in place.
Still, I imagine throughout the economy there are big and small companies with cash to spend and a perception that now is the cheap time buy something. If everybody else stopped cutting, while they started spending out of savings then it shouldn't take a lot to tip the balance towards a positive economic cycle. Even a simple return to full time work would be a huge boost to the economy right now.
To me, the biggest problem is that the government spending will be declining much more than anyone else is willing to increase their spending. Then the follow-up impact of a lower GDP number.
BoA is down over 6%, something is smelling funny. Wonder what F/F are doing? Could this have something to do the the FHA loans since Countrywide is doing those loans now? BoA/Countrywide=FHA+GSE= Bonds? This is getting into calculus I'm not well schooled in.
YouTube - JIM the Realtor @ Cali Crack House (Jim TV ) featuring Fat Joe & Li'l Wayne
.....
I've seen some here question why the R's are blocking unemployment extension? On this mornings "Washington Journal" a caller asked the same question of Rep. Issa (R). He gave the following rationale:
1) Republicans want to take the funds from stimulus money or TARP money
2) The current bill excludes some states from getting the extended benefit. They want to ensure all 50 states are covered. Why should someone in CA get the extension, but someone in Tenessee (or other low unemployment state) get the extension?
vibe is changing, at least anecdotally.
Been to several munchkin birthdays now, where the birthday baby asked for cash donations to charity rather than more chinese plastic crap - mums were pretty blunt that they didn't need any more semi-disposable crap, there'd be one or two "big family presents" and no more toys. Thank you very much.
Also had several munchkins of our acquaintance decline having a party and instead having a smaller scale "service oriented event". ie small number of friends doing an activity, not a party with lots of people cakes and games etc.
Surprised me. Especially in our crowd.
On the other hand the best "quality toy store" around shut, they were bounced out of their location just before xmas '08 and never recovered from moving to a worse location.
Mall owner wanted higher rent and "better leasee". Storefront has been vacant for almost 10 months now, and an adjacent store just closed up - lost the foot traffic from the toy store.
Christmas will be Old School this year for a lot of people.
If we're going to play stock tip board today, does anybody know what happened to Monsanto this morning?
dryfly wrote:
You really think they're gonna tinker with this fragile thing over "moral hazard"?
I'm pretty doubtful.
Does the Federal Deficit include all the money given to the banksters or only the estimated loss of the money given? If the former does anybody have a number for what it would have been excluding the money given.
Chicago Dude wrote:
That probably happened over concerns about Mad Cow disease and use of hormones, etc. in US beef production. At one point, I think the EU had shut off beef imports from the US, or was at least threatening to do so-
just another lurker wrote:
Commodities are being smashed. Corn down almost 4%.
All the ag stocks are down.
Cinco-X wrote:
I have not been to Bangladesh (E Bengal) but have spent a fair amount of time in W Bengal (India, mostly in Kolkata) and the land there is very fertile, sort of the equivelent of the land in the Miss Delta). The pop density is very high, even with a near total lack of high rise buildings. I think the tallest building in Kolkata is about 20 stories (Tata Steel). Mostly cheek by jowel in very dense single story slums.
noob goldberg wrote:
Headline: Stocks/Commodities/Bonds/Dollars/Trinkets (pick one) are lower due to profit-taking by investors.
I think all states are eligible to get it if they made certain changes to their unemployment rules- like including part time workers. Some states don't want to take on the additional burden of doing that -their argument is that it creates greater future liabilities. The alternative is that it increases the cost on their corporate buddies who will now have to pay more for part time work.
As somebody who believes in efficient markets I think all benefits should be indexed to hours worked rather than this artificial drawing of lines in the sand. That way there is no external reason to prefer part time over full time employees.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Not cheap enough yet - I know people trying to buy both equipment & distressed firms and both are no longer on sale. Once the panic subsided there was market stalemate... almost like high end real estate last year. If you aren't forced to sell the equipment or assets - you sit tight. There is enough liquidity in place to make the sit a little less painful.
These companies are NOT good stewards of those assets either... they sit on them & mismanage. I've seen it up close & in person. And they will NOT be expanding and hiring - just sitting tight until somebody offers them their exit price or conditions force a decision.
Meanwhile the buyers I know refuse to buy at prices that would then make them non-competitive as well.
Stalemate. It's the operational side of your '1990s Japan - USA Style 2000s Redux'. It sucks. Markets won't clear anytime soon - the Hedgies & PEs sitting on a lot of these assets just plain don't have to budge.
Ah, there's always some silver lining...
Cinco-X wrote:
Europeans have an attachment to their farmers that is very different from North Americans. They remember being hungry during WWI and II, and do whatever necessary to maintain their local productive capacity.
However, this is a pretty common McDonalds policy, from what I've been told. When it comes to meat, most people are comfortable with domestic, and begin getting squeamish with imports.
crazyv wrote:
Deficit includes TARP, and whatever payouts to BofA and C on their 10%/90% loss sharing agreements minus $350bn of QE. It does not include the FDIC guaranteed debt, nor the established but unaccounted for Maiden Lane losses the Federal Reserve is holding, nor the repos where the Federal reserve accepts toilet paper with AAA written on it and gives out short term cash.
just as an FYI Bloomberg says banks are down and the market down on worry that the homebuyer tax credit is ending.
broward wrote:
Not saying it will but it sure could - AIG is already in 'run off'... Citi is almost there now too if reports are accurate... so why not sacrifice them & make a nice PR picture op to soothe angry J6Ps?
It isn't noon here yet; is it too early to start drinking heavily?
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Is the sun over the yardarm?
dryfly wrote:
This might be the result of excessive leverage. No one wants to take a check to the deal when they're the sellers-
EHP is the two trillion in "loans" to as yet to be named parties included in that?
I think it's close 'nuff for gubmint work
noob goldberg wrote:
True enough; seems I recall in the mid-'70s that McD's had been importing Argentinian beef, and there was an uproar here about that. Too bad; it's pretty good stuff-
Example of long-term strategic moves by companies with tons of cash laying around...
Apple is building a second flagship retail store here in Chicago, only this one is not in the touristy area. The property is right next to a subway station, separated only by a bus turnaround lane that the CTA hasn't used in a couple decades. Yesterday details of a deal came out at the city counsel meeting. Apple will turn the bus turnaround lane into a landscaped plaza that leads people exiting the subway station right to their store entrance. They will also completely renovate the subway station (sorely needed) using their architect and it will blend in perfectly with their new store.
Apple will pay $4 million and the city will pick up the rest of the tab.
What does Apple get? Permission to use the station lobby to run Apple promotions and the right of first refusal on all advertising and signage in the station. So they can replace any advertising they don't like with an Apple ad. Apparently this is an indefinite agreement. Talk about a sweet deal for $4 million.
Semi-related: Newspaper circulation drop accelerates April-Sept - Yahoo! Finance
Not surprising, as 50% of content is reprint of wire service pieces.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
C'mon Kristina! You're too pretty to ruin your looks w/ alcohol
rosethorn wrote:
And at least some of the better stuff seems to be "stolen" from bloggers.
just another lurker wrote:
i'd like to say "reality", but we all know that's not true.
Time to go change the oil in my car and head to the library.
Maybe at the library I'll invent some sort of mechanism to remove and replace the DOW 10K hat from Cashun's head, so his arm doesn't get so tired.
Nice to see Wall*St still busily waging the war against J6P and the US Public in general. I mean, driving oil straight up gets a lot of smiles on CNBC, like it's a wonderful benefit to society. They deserve all the praise Obama can heap on them.
Cinco-X wrote:
That and having to report back to your 'principals' you've blown up their investment - not when you can continue to extract 2 & 20.
The 'Effing Market' is as broken as government ever was... someday people will realize this but not until the assets rundown to the point they are worthless & the Hedgies & PEs have extracted all the 2 & 20 available.
Oh well - got work to do - catch up w/you all later.
dryfly
I didn't necessarily mean in manufacturing, there are still lots of businesses that do well. Maybe buy some CRE space, upgrade the computers, buy some nice office furniture at auction
Most of the businesses that are doing well though are probably doing so only with gains in market share. Be that a cobbler/seamstress against retail, Costco vs Macy's, Hyundai vs Mercedes, or anything ad-powered on the internet vs newspapers, tv.
I tried to use "sanity" to explain Citi and BAC but that is too much to hope for.
wow, McDonald's makes the story of the day
It was Australian beef.
I was working at a McDonald's at the time, many jokes about kangaroo meat.
Chicago Trib is so desperate for subscription numbers that we subscribe for 3 days a week for $1 a week. Get the food ads on Wednesday and the coupons on Sunday. The rest we throw straight into the recycling bin. It's well worth the cost (to us)!
bearly wrote:
So what do we really have: socialism-for-the-giants, fascism or an economy which calls itself “capitalism” but which allows looting?
Ultimately, it doesn’t matter. They are just different brand names for the same basic type of economy. All three systems allow giant businesses which are friendly to the government to keep enormous private profits but to pass the losses on to the government and ultimately the citizens.
Guest Post: Capitalism, Socialism or Fascism? « naked capitalism
off for a lunch date-thanks for another really engaging discussion everyone:
bearly wrote:
Kristina,
I assume you're referring to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet? A repo is a loan where the Fed gives cash for a specified period, holds the collateral, and at the end of the period gets cash + 0.01% APR back. A lot is tied up in Agency MBS and debt right now, as for the parties they are the primary dealers. What we don't know is who borrowed how much with what exact collateral.
Many people are underestimating the loss of MEW in respect to consumer's psychology.
I've had a discretionary income based retail biz for 20 years. In my line I have a lot of interaction with the customer and not just ringing up the sale. Not only is the MEW crowd extinct but they tended to make the most margin friendly and impulse oriented purchases. I've mentionned this before but I think consumer's mentality towards spending changes depending on whether it comes from MEW or earned income. The MEW crowd (from my observations - late 20's to 40's, shiny new rides and tract homes purchased this decade. Want it all NOW.) tended to want the more expensive item and cost didn't play much of a role. Whereas, the ones spending from earned income made more value oriented purchases.
Imo the MEW crowd never expected to actually pay for their purchases with earned income - just keep refinancing or selling and squaring up with everyone. And until we can get 'free' money flowing again the economy will just bump along as far as flat/declining wages, job losses, contracting consumer credit and government spending can carrry us.
Thank you, Noob.
Husband gives me flack when my IRA underperforms his 401k.
on the late night thread I made a point about how Jim the Realtor seems to have a fascination with
Scarface & coke or in some instances crack, at least that's my read on his YouTube offerings... finally,
I offer my final installment YouTube - JIM the Realtor @ Cali Crack House (Jim TV ) featuring Fat Joe & Li'l Wayne
which marries Jim's musings on Real Estate with those of Fat Joe and Li'l Wayne...
(I'll grade myself a B- on it)
Thanks for clarifying EHP. I was referring to the ZIR loans the Fed was making last year that Bloomberg sued over to try and get names on.
Duke,
Have you ever thought of doing satire?
black dog wrote:
Psychology? Try pocketbook. MEW topped out at $200bn per quarter. That's $222 for each and every American citizen, per month. A rate equivalent to 50 new Nimitz class aircraft carriers per year (I guess 1980s dollars). The reason why the economy crapped out is because credit stopped growing. Credit had grown so much and for so long, that it wasn't appreciated how much of everyone's own income (and the appreciation of their assets) was dependent on someone else borrowing more money.
ehp, that just sounds like a really, really nasty spell of deflation to me.
Kristina,
The Fed is still making those loans.
The issue is that it is never supposed to incur any losses, and that collateral was restricted to US Treasuries. They not only expanded the collateral, they also took it on with premiums to actual market value. So they basically broke the rules, while technically being legal, at least until we find out the specific collateral they took on.
EHP, I recall our joking that they were accepting
at the Fed Window last year, correct?
Off topic:
VIDEO: Legalizing Marijuana: Times They Are A-Changin’ - George's Bottom Line
I personally don't think this will work. Too many "independents" out there who will continue to sell under the table. Why buy gubmint regulated swag (which will probably be crap) when you can get better, tax free stuff for less. The black market infrastructure is already in place.
RockyR
Bernanke will rock the boat over to inflation if its the last thing he does, and the boat will keep on rolling until it just capsizes from the other direction of what would have happened. That boat is the USD, not Americans. Americans will still produce real income, to purchase real things, and life will go on with a new common denominator of value. At least that is the doom scenario.
nova,
satire? of course, now all I need to find is a paymaster...
one test of passion is the willingness to do it for free over and over again
which happens to be my case...
Kristina
I don't recall that joke, but it would be more like they lent out 2 squirrels for every 1 squirrel of collateral. Which I don't think they can defend when push comes to shove. So the whole thing will be covered up with some kind of presidential decree
black dog wrote:
It is exactly for that reason that the stock market will retain a bid - from every sell off level. The acceptance of realistic asset valuations (i.e. no free money) will also require an acceptance that living standards in the future will be permanently lower. The failure of that latter acceptance is what allow TPTB and every con artist the opportunity to fleece the sheep. It is also what is driving most people on this blog crazy most of whom I presume have always lived within their means.
@EHP
I agree with what you're saying but the source of $$'s (either credit or income) dictates how (or if) they will be spent.
@crazyv
When homeownership was nearing 70% many consumers in the lower 80% of wage earners had a source of $$'s for spending. How many consumers in the lower 80% own enough stock to make a difference in their spending habits?
broward wrote:
If I recall correctly that was a problem for Jack in the Box...