Typical denial, the smart companies are preparing for the down phase, the stupid ones continue to be....well stupid.
I bet after the "slow season" begins later this year, those "optimistic" builders will be either cutting back in desperation or finding another profession.
"Nationwide median prices will probably fall at least 20% before the break is over. It will take a 35% fall to return prices to their long-run link to the Consumer Price Index"
His hair is gone where his gamma-ray-bombarded tin foil hat is worn.
"Nearly three-quarters of ... homeowners surveyed ... werent worried that there will be a downturn in the housing market"
So the sellers don't think prices should drop.... no surprise - sellers never believe prices will drop much or for long, which is why housing price drops are so long and drawn out. The real question is whether there are enough new buyers who agree with the existing homeowners on this point, and the survey doesn't seem to address that...
I've mentioned this on this blog before, but based on Orange County, CA history it takes a few years of declines before homeowners get worried about the housing market.
The total number of houses in the U.S. is far in excess of 36 million. I could not quickly find a reliable number. (I used those with internet access in 2000.)
Consider: Over 74,000 zip codes; at least 3305 counties.
Stormy, just to add - this is a fairly typical number to survey for a small (+/- 3%) margin of error. Here are a couple of examples:
WaPo:
"A total of 1,202 randomly selected adults were interviewed Oct. 30-Nov. 2 for this survey. Margin of sampling error for the overall results is plus or minus three percentage points."
From the WSJ:
"Harris Interactive conducted this telephone survey in the U.S., between May 5-8, 2006, among a nationwide cross section of 1,003 adults. Figures for age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, income and region were weighted where necessary to align with population proportions. In theory, with probability samples of this size, one can say with 95% certainty that the overall results have a sampling error of +/- 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult population had been polled with complete accuracy."
CR-
KB Homes just shut their Inland Empire (Riverside/San Bernardino) office
Lennar, Taylor Woodrow, and Centex closed their San Diego offices a few weeks ago.
Typical denial, the smart companies are preparing for the down phase, the stupid ones continue to be....well stupid.
I bet after the "slow season" begins later this year, those "optimistic" builders will be either cutting back in desperation or finding another profession.
Here's Gary "I'm the other" Shilling doing the Doom Skootin' Boogie:
Implosion - Forbes.com
"Nationwide median prices will probably fall at least 20% before the break is over. It will take a 35% fall to return prices to their long-run link to the Consumer Price Index"
His hair is gone where his gamma-ray-bombarded tin foil hat is worn.
"Nearly three-quarters of ... homeowners surveyed ... werent worried that there will be a downturn in the housing market"
So the sellers don't think prices should drop.... no surprise - sellers never believe prices will drop much or for long, which is why housing price drops are so long and drawn out. The real question is whether there are enough new buyers who agree with the existing homeowners on this point, and the survey doesn't seem to address that...
I've mentioned this on this blog before, but based on Orange County, CA history it takes a few years of declines before homeowners get worried about the housing market.
Staticians, please:
The survey is of 1000 houses.
The total number of houses in the U.S. is far in excess of 36 million. I could not quickly find a reliable number. (I used those with internet access in 2000.)
Consider: Over 74,000 zip codes; at least 3305 counties.
Now, is a survey of 1000 houses reliable?
Stormy, yes its a sufficient number if properly selected.
BR, I agree - it will take some time before the word really gets out.
PW, thanks for the update. This is just the beginning ...
Best to all.
Stormy, just to add - this is a fairly typical number to survey for a small (+/- 3%) margin of error. Here are a couple of examples:
WaPo:
"A total of 1,202 randomly selected adults were interviewed Oct. 30-Nov. 2 for this survey. Margin of sampling error for the overall results is plus or minus three percentage points."
From the WSJ:
"Harris Interactive conducted this telephone survey in the U.S., between May 5-8, 2006, among a nationwide cross section of 1,003 adults. Figures for age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, income and region were weighted where necessary to align with population proportions. In theory, with probability samples of this size, one can say with 95% certainty that the overall results have a sampling error of +/- 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult population had been polled with complete accuracy."
Best Regards.
What can I say? I Pulte da fools who are banking on home price appreciation.
Thanks, CR.
It's all in the details: "...if properly selected..."