told ya about the inventory draw downs = we haven't yet seen positive employment growth...
on another note, $10 per barrel = -0.4% of OECD GDP growth, so that's great news in a world of shrinking private credit
oh IMF, when will your dart board ever give the correct results, it's bound to happen eventually
Well, at least Wall St. bonuses are at record levels again. I can't wait to get trickled down on. The last two trickle down cycles made the majority so much wealthier.
We need a plot of oil, the dollar and wall st. bonuses.
I'd just like the UE'd to know that everything is fine at my zombie bank. So, WHY DON'T YOU LOSERS GET OFF YOUR BUTTS AND GET A JOB AND STOP LIVING OFF WELFARE YOU LOSERS!!!
forget U6
we're far enough off the trail that you need to rely on employment x hours worked / civilian population over 16
like a captain navigating the seven seas using the stars
So how does the increased cash flow to consumers from the high default rates compare to the decreased cash flow to consumers from the difference between employed income and unemployment benefits?
And if that does provide support to PCE, how much longer will it provide support to PCE, given the massive (and for the most part justified) credit tightening by banks?
If only there was some way to capture the number of Americans employed at minimum wage, the number employed at less than minimum wage because classified as "tipped," and the number now working on commission, hoping to sell someone (anyone) a widget at half-off for the holidays.
"So how does the increased cash flow to consumers from the high default rates compare to the decreased cash flow to consumers from the difference between employed income and unemployment benefits?"
Good question, I have brought that up before.
Rough numbers: 200K avg mortgage size, 6% rate = 1200mo P+I, call it 1400mo PITI incl unpaid HOA for condos, money not spent on upkeep, etc.
1400mo * 7.57MM delinquent mortgages = 10.6B in extra stimulus a month / 127.17B a year.
Most importantly, these are savings of after tax dollars.
Pretty significant stimulus.
EDIT: I should add, as I have been saying, not paying your mortgage IS the bailout for the average American. Some just don't realize it.
"I suspect this is what happens when you do all your business by phone rather than by email: you’re so comfortable with the fact that you’re not leaving any kind of paper trail, it becomes much easier to cross the line and abuse your position as the most powerful Treasury secretary in living memory to the benefit of your former firm. If the Moscow meeting wasn’t enough to precipitate some kind of Congressional investigation of Paulson, this should be."
I think Paulson feels that he can't be pursued for any of this. He was thinking "above the law? I AM THE LAW!" or something like that.
Oil is a funny thing, we all depend upon it greatly individually, yet none of us have any savings* put away in any quantities, other than what's in the gas tank of our cars.
I'm probably the exception to the rule, and I keep about 50 gallons on hand in the winter, but not the summer months.
Just for the record... I've been in a lot of places recently where UE is pretty low... So Dak, No Dak, Neb, Kan, Iowa & Minnesota.
MN is the highest w/ UE3 = 7.3%... even then MUCH lower 'outstate' where I frequent compared w/ the Twin Cities. Even Missouri which has higher UE overall has tighter labor markets in rural NW Missouri where I go.
Didn't somebody post these results in some kind of interactive format once - county by county? If so anyone know where that is? TIA.
Eric
That's just it, the market price for oil won't outlast me until February. I don't give a flip at what someone is willing to pay for oil they can't sell on to end demand. The higher it goes, the more goes into inventory, the less margin the inventory can withstand before taking losses.
Job losses are now a leading indicator because the economy is so highly leveraged now that each and every job loss does serious damage as witnessed by the non-stop, continuous bankruptcies of homeowners, businesses, and banks.
ghostface-
Any idea how much additional cash flow is provided by the credit card defaults?
Unlike the mortgage, on the defaulting credit card holder, the issuer can shut down the account very quickly. The old debt my be sunk cost, and available for other spending, but no new extensions will occur.
Thee dumbass unemployed people just need to either write up or down their loses and do as the banks are doing -- to heal themselves from self-inflected wounds; it's so F'ing easy ....
The third-quarter results included an accounting loss of $900 million, or 36 cents a share, from a rise in the value of the firm's debt. Writing up debt caused a loss of $2.3 billion in the second quarter, while writing it down brought a whopping $9.7 billion gain in the year-ago quarter.
Morgan Stanley stashed away about $5 billion in the third quarter for year-end bonuses, lifting its bonus pool to $10.9 billion. Goldman has set aside nearly $17 billion so far.
Morgan Stanley's consolidated net revenue in the quarter fell 52 percent to $8.7 billion, again reflecting the one-time accounting gains in the year-ago period.
1400mo * 7.57MM delinquent mortgages = 10.6B in extra stimulus a month / 127.17B a year.
Ghost,
To that I would subtract ~ $500 billion due to decreased MEW. I would also subtract another $500 billion due to reduced spending from consumers that are NOT delinquent but are underwater or have significantly reduced net worths.
Net, net, the housing/credit bust is a big negative for PCE. Consider, S&P 500 sales are down $1.52 trilliion over the past 12 months.
The US financial crisis is always and everywhere in support of Ponzi schemes and frauds perpetrated by a handful of bankers and their accomplices, a corruption of the political process and the media, facilitated by the wholesale weakening of the American mind.
A sophisticated financial tool that unfortunately all too often ends up in the hands of the unsophisticated.
Ahh, glad I am not of the unsophisticated type.
Serious though I have not owned a credit card in almost 12 years now...I like to keep my paycheck....opps knock at the door some black suit and tie types.
There's a lot of trust involved in financial instruments like these. Unfortunately trust in the financial system is what's been destroyed by the developments of the past two years; and it continues to be destroyed. Like so many other instruments, the ETFs will be fine until something stresses them. Then we find out if the promises they're based on are real or not. I don't blame people for steering clear of a proposition like that.
Bob put it better than I did in my response to Mike. In a stable financial and monetary environment, I think ETFs are the bees knees to give exposure to areas of your investment portfolio where spending time and energy tracking individual players or pieces would be risky and cost-prohibitive. However as Wall^Street continues to show us, putting your faith in them is definitely risky at best and devastating at worse because they already got paid regardless of what happens to your positions short or long.
.
No shared risk in that relationship and coming from a Family Law perspective, that situation can spell in human relationships.
I'll put it in context for everyone
for oil to be supported at $80 per barrel, the US retail gasoline would have to increase at least 24% from whatever your local price is today.
That is assuming that all the oil and distillates in inventory can remain there in perpetuity
Of course unemployment is low in those places.
There's no people there.
Percentage wise snarkster - and there are SOME people there... Minnie is about 5MM, Iowa about 4MM... NE, SD, ND & Kansas I'd guess at 5MM combined... so while a large area the population isn't that small - all combined it is comparable to one large metropolitan area exploded across the plains.
That is why I'm interested in more granular data - county by county. Know where it is? I saw a link to it [I think it was here] a few months back.
I'll put it in context for everyone
for oil to be supported at $80 per barrel, the US retail gasoline would have to increase at least 24% from whatever your local price is today.
EHP,
Any context should include the value of the dollar.
When you see reference to a new paradigm you should always, under all circumstances, take cover. Because ever since the great tulipmania in 1637, speculation has always been covered by a new paradigm. There was never a paradigm so new and so wonderful as the one that covered John Law and the South Sea Bubble — until the day of disaster.-- John Kenneth Galbraith
Angry Saver
That's the beauty of a commodity dependent on US consumption for 25% of total demand, already stored in the US, and on the books in terms of the USD
The US could adopt chicken s**t as its national currency, and that oil would still have to clear the market
I'm not sure I'd call them "people", but the reason unemployment is lower is that there's a minimum level you need to keep the 7-11s and McDonald's running for people passing through town.
If you are going to spend the winter cruising the highway through those states.. I pity you. And I've done enough of it to know.
Hell I love it - been doing it for 25 years now. I'd rather be running out and back [E-W] on US Hwy 30 or N-S on US Hwy 71 than stuck bumper to bumper on the NW Tollway out of Chicago ANY DAY winter or summer.
But it is an alternate reality to what I experience in the city for sure.
The US financial crisis is always and everywhere in support of Ponzi schemes and frauds perpetrated by a handful of bankers and their accomplices, a corruption of the political process and the media, facilitated by the wholesale weakening of the American mind.
I like Jesse, but the problem is simpler than this, because it's not JUST a US financial crisis.
The problem is political: How do the average people of a society (meaning the statistical majority of people) create a political system that can control/regulate/manage the smart-amoral-scumbags of society.
Personally, I don't think it's possible, which is why were all here right now watching the post-game-show of the end-of-democracy.
I'm not sure I'd call them "people", but the reason unemployment is lower is that there's a minimum level you need to keep the 7-11s and McDonald's running for people passing through town.
Boy we have become jaded lately haven't we? Besides some of those non-people are the nice folks serving you up whiskey at the pool hall - cut'em some slack alright?
there's plenty of shared risk, it's just at a more abstract, long-term level.
Not enough to calculate an impact for 95%. Academics can spend the years haggling over the abstract, long-term level. After all in the long run we all die. Everything returns to zero.
.
If I lost my shirt in GLD, I know other GLD owners lost their shirt, but the monkey brain stops there. The people who issued GLD got paid. If anyone actively sold me GLD, they got paid. The people who sold their shares got paid.
The two options are:
- Oil prices collapse, end the risk on trade
- Oil prices get passed on to end consumers, US consumption collapses, emerging markets collapse from wedge of input prices and decreased demand, end of risk on trade
We have less runway for inventory than there is for consumption, so I think that's where the story ends
True.
Bartender chicks in Richland were far too friendly on Monday.
Their eyes widening when I pulled out an actual $50 bill.
Must not get much cash out that way.
That's the beauty of a commodity dependent on a US consumer for marginal demand
EHP,
The thing is, I'm not sure the American CONsumer is the source of marginal demand going forward. OECD oil use has been falling for several years, yet overall demand (until the financial crisis hit) was rising. Plus, a lot of countries have huge reserves that are going into stimulus plans.
Longer term, I agree with you. But while governments are printing money and embarking on massive stimulus programs, I have doubts. Another thing to keep in mind is that world wide oil demand barely fell during the Great Depression (down a few % max IIRC).
Do cc's work as a financial product if everyone pays off their balance monthly?
Yes, the merchant pays the cartel price of $x + y% on every transaction, fees vary by card, charging a lower cash-only price is forbidden by the contract
I'd just like the UE'd to know that everything is fine at my zombie bank. So, WHY DON'T YOU LOSERS GET OFF YOUR BUTTS AND GET A JOB AND STOP LIVING OFF WELFARE YOU LOSERS!!!
That many UE here that it's worth making the statement? How are they paying for frivolities like net access?
The thing is, I'm not sure the American CONsumer is the source of marginal demand going forward.
I'm not talking about the distant future. You don't store oil above ground for years. I'm talking about demand needed to clear the market today. Stop trying to reconcile the weather outside your window today, with the farmer's almanac's forecast for a year from now.
We need money fast, right now. It's really time for our military to invade and takeover the banks of the Caribbean islands to confiscate the trillions of dollars that were stolen from the American taxpayers and buried there by our politicians, congressmen, and elites to evade taxation and jail time. Unfortunately, paying taxes is for the little people and petty theft is the main theme of prosecution and prison time.
The California unemployment rate actually declined a little tiny bit from last month:
California State Unemployment Rate | Department of Numbers
Does it matter?
Subtle bit of legerdemain going on in those numbers. The UE went from 12.3% to 12.2% month over month after revising last month up from 12.2% to 12.3%. Despite 10s of thousands new people added to the workforce there were fewer total jobs month over month. Got that? All the real numbers are worse. All of them.
My cousin in Idaho hasn't been able to find a job in over 18 months, even the 7-11 type jobs. Is he structurally unemployable if the only job he can hold is a seasonable bell ringer?
Did CA decline on secular grounds, that is it actually declined via re-employment? Or did it decline via chronic unemployment where people were simply dropped from rolls, and/or 1099 proliferation.
Put it another way, a remarkable number of people have been laid off at companies only to be 1099'd back. Companies purge the carry costs from their books and burden of carry costs (health insurance...) gets carried by the 1099 and they are removed from the survey's that businesses fill out regarding W2s. Win-Win right?
Yes, the merchant pays the cartel price of $x + y% on every transaction, fees vary by card, charging a lower cash-only price is forbidden by the contract
Yes, so instead they mark up the price when you use a CC. My local liquor store adds $1 to every CC purchase.
Perhaps it is cyclical, all you can do is metphorically keep cutting back the brush...
I hope so, I'm sure the people that believe in "human progress" hope so. However, I suspect that China has the political model that the US nobility will want to emulate for the future. The peasant dumbasses will never notice as long as they've got enough food, TV, and patriotic icons to keep them happy.
The problem is political: How do the average people of a society (meaning the statistical majority of people) create a political system that can control/regulate/manage the smart-amoral-scumbags of society.
energyecon,
That is why I favor a hard tether like gold to limit senseless credit expansion. Gold never limited productive credit expansion, despite what many believe. Gold did limit and force the liquidation of non-economic credit. Private credit backed by output did and could easily compete with gold as a means of exchange and store of value. It's the fraudulent credit that can't handle a gold standard.
Subtle bit of legerdemain going on in those numbers. The UE went from 12.3% to 12.2% month over month after revising last month up from 12.2% to 12.3%. Despite 10s of thousands new people added to the workforce there were few total jobs month over month. Got that? All the real numbers are worse. All of them.
Are illegal immigrants allowed to collect in CA, or do they just go back to college (at state expense)?
"The thing is, I'm not sure the American CONsumer is the source of marginal demand going forward. OECD oil use has been falling for several years, yet overall demand (until the financial crisis hit) was rising. Plus, a lot of countries have huge reserves that are going into stimulus plans."
Isn't China the largest auto market in the world now? i.e I thought last month they sold more cars than the US?
I have to admit, I turned down one serious job offer last week. And my previous offer in Seattle might have worked out if I'd dicked around with it but I'm just damn tired of being deceived. It's a bad way to start a job and I've had it happen too much in the past few years.
Just for the record... I've been in a lot of places recently where UE is pretty low... So Dak, No Dak, Neb, Kan, Iowa & Minnesota
Unfortunately, these states represent a small percentage of our nation's total population
I wonder what effect $81.28/bbl oil is going to have on the job situation.
ac,
I'm guessing Bernanke and the Fed believe inflation will increase velocity. I'm not sure that will be the outcome this time around as there are limits to the amount of debt an economy can carry. Today's debt levels are not even remotely close to the those of the 1970s. Key distinction imo.
I could be wrong, but I've heard rumors that most of the money isn't stored IN these banks - like in bags or anything. Most of the money is actually floating around the internet - virtual wealth that can be accessed by the smart-amoral-scumbags (who, being smart, would plan for this).
So, I suspect - should our glorious Armies invade the Caribbean - all we'd get would be some computers for our efforts.
Isn't China the largest auto market in the world now? i.e I thought last month they sold more cars than the US?
Their version of auto-stimulus was cutting the big purchase tax on engines under 0.8L, and that's where the sales came from. That was combined with a big cut to the price of gasoline. 2 more caveats: you can need 2 cars because of alternating days of license plate restrictions, there is no developed used car market yet.
Autos is one of 5 economic pillars they are trying to develop. It doesn't matter what demand is, they're going to hit their quotas
To answer your actual question, yes they sold the most monthly units since February when the stimulus started. Didn't check if C4C took the lead back.
I'm not positive how they account for sales though. I would think it is upon final sale / purchase tax, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was upon sale to the dealership.
Virginia and I'm sure other states experienced a one-time off decrease in UE in august due to an increase in enrollment.
Governor Kaine last month:
"While August is a transition month from summer to fall, Virginia's unemployment rate improved in part due to record fall enrollments in the Commonwealth's large and important higher education sector and the downstream impact of stimulus money spent on Virginia's military bases creating jobs for private sector contractors."
Tell me about it. My BIL lost his computer IT job (at a bank, of course) at the start of this mess, unable to find work in the Southern California job market. During this time, he has since had his hair go completely gray, and lost 25 lbs. I give his marriage at best a 50/50 chance of surviving this gap in employment.
Just one statistic among millions, I know, but when I hear about "record bonuses" at the banks, my blood boils.
I think most people have figured in MEW and lower spending from under water borrowers. I certainly hadn't figured in the stimulus from people not making their mortgage and other debt payments. It helps explain why even with a loss of 8MM jobs and loss of MEW an increase in the savings rate to 5% retail sales are only down about 6% year on year.
Whatever the number one has to figure that the "good news" is already in the economy. Either these folks are going to have to start making payments on the modifications or else they are going to get tossed from their homes and will have to start making payments on rentals.
Are you in the U.S.? That's explicitly forbidden by the merchant agreement.
It's easy to get around, you offer a discount for cash. Credit card price = $X but you get a 3.5% discount for cash. Nothing in the merchant agreements about not being able to offer a cash discount. It's standard-operating-practice for small retail.
~splat
Are you in the U.S.? That's explicitly forbidden by the merchant agreement.
Merchant, Schmerchant. They do it anyway. And I don't mind a bit, because their prices are 30% lower than their competition 5 blocks away, and I have the choice to pay in cash if I want.
Unfortunately, these states represent a small percentage of our nation's total population
I'm well aware of that - I don't live in those other places - I live here and the highly aggregated state numbers mean nothing in a very large region w/ lumpy demographics. In a region with a more homogeneous population distribution or a lot smaller area [say in the east] it works pretty well. Not in most of the country. Not out on the plains, mountain west or west coast. That's why I asked.
OT, but it shows I'm listening to the discussions here, and I want you guy's
opinion.
In the course of my foreclosure defenses, which started off simple-minded, and
have gotten fancier, I have been mulling the derivative situation and the postings
about hey, if you got paid because you bought credit default insurance, or some
other sort of protection, why should you be able to foreclose too, and this hypothetically
get paid twice.
And I have a foreclosure from a mtg originaled by WaMu, and taken over and
foreclosed by JPMorgan Chase. Didn't JPMorgan get a bunch of money from the
government to cover losses? If so, maybe they shouldn't get paid twice either?
If this is completely beyond the pale and totally frivolous, I won't use it, but it
seems to me if that's the case, my guy may owe the taxpayers something, and
not JPMorgan--not all of it anyway. The taxpayers aren't foreclosing, and we all know they will never
get any money.
Also, the mortgage was filed without a legal description!!! And they said they
lost the note, but now they claim they found the note. The mtg still has no
legal description.
That's like an address by the way. You can identify a parcel by legal, by tax folio No, or the like
or by address.
My affidavit sez they have to prove it's this property they mortgaged, since he bought
several at the time. This should be very easy to do, except they haven't done anything
since April, 2009.
Plus, I have a client who foolishly lent her credit to a scondrel (which was very
stupid and bad of course), but they agreed to stop hounding her for money,
and we wouldn't fight the foreclosure. Once again, nothing happened for
a very long time. The last payment was some time like June 2007. the scondrel,
who is still living there and was, way before she lent her credit, now has filed
a motion to set aside the summary judgment and this seems to have been
granted. So the lender is no closer to kicking anybody out then they were 2 1/2 years
ago!!!
Are illegal immigrants allowed to collect in CA, or do they just go back to college (at state expense)?
Don't ask, don't tell. The underground employment market is having interesting consequences. At first they stopped working and it didn't show up in the official numbers but now desperation is turning into labor predation. I have no comments, only observations.
record fall enrollments in the Commonwealth's large and important higher education
People who can't find work get a student loan and go to school. With grants, loans and scholorships you can keep a roof over your head and food on the table.
Some people are taking early SS or filing for disability.
Your BIL should cut bait and run from CA. DC market for IT is still brisk given his ability to get a clearance. He worked for a bank so they already pulled the financial + criminal record search on him and clearly it came clean.
This is a fantastic graph, CR. Something that surprised me is I expected more states to be currently at/near their max unemployment, but it appears that in the past, unemployment has been even worse than now. Even Michigan is not at its peak.
I wonder what it looks like if you use state employment (i.e. to remove the effects of people who have "stopped looking")?
Just one statistic among millions, I know, but when I hear about "record bonuses" at the banks, my blood boils.
Hey, come on, these people are the foundation of Merica, the honest hard-workin' bidness leaders of Merica (WHO WORK FOR A LIVING, AND DON'T EXPECT TO LIVE OFF WELFARE LIKE THESE UNEMPLOYED PEOPLE DO, NO) they work and pay taxes (TO LOSERS, WHO JUST LEACH OFF OF WELFARE - THAT'S WHAT'S WRONG WITH MERICA TODAY, ALL THESE PEOPLE ON WELFARE) so, remember bonuses are a sign of free-enterprise (AND FREEDOM AND DEMOCRACY AND EAGLES AND FLAGS AND SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST - GET A JOB YOU HIPPY!!!)
It's easy to get around, you offer a discount for cash. Credit card price = $X but you get a 3.5% discount for cash. Nothing in the merchant agreements about not being able to offer a cash discount. It's standard-operating-practice for small retail.
~splat
If the merchant agreement is at all similar to Canada, offering a lower non-CC price is explicitly forbidden. Probably just that no one has reported those stores, and they haven't been checked. If one day those stores get caught processing a fraudulent transaction, and they send an investigator out who sees the dual-pricing, they get kicked off the CC network
"Gambling is the root of our problems, and the quicker we stick a shiv into it, the bettor off we'll be.."
.....Wait a sec.........Without gambling we couldn't enjoy our weekly $9.61 mega-buffet-for-2 (including beverages) at our local Pahrump Nugget, open 7-days a week for your eating pleasure.......how was THAT, Jeremy?
quite right. take your gmat, apply for MS program that transitions nicely into a phd program. usuall the ms program will hold you for 2 years, then you transition into the phd program where you can count on another 6 years...8 years from now, and things just have to look better...right?
An internal congressional report questioning the ability of the Secret Service to continue fulfilling its duties was leaked to the Boston Globe. The report says the Secret Service is strained by a drastic increase in threats to President Obama, coupled with deep budget cuts. Some are speculating that the agency may need to relinquish all or part of its roles in protecting the country's financial machinery in order to focus resources on the protection of the president and other high-profile leaders.
3000 job cuts at Sun aren't going to help. We should start using the less politically charged phraseology instead of job losses or layoffs.
An organization I worked for preferred the term "transitioned from the organization". The CEO of that org was "transitioned" to other opportunities himself about 12 month later, fortunately his $1.5 mil payoff helped soften the blow of unemployment.
Don't ask, don't tell. The underground employment market is having interesting consequences. At first they stopped working and it didn't show up in the official numbers
I guess it may, to an extent, be showing up in the tax revenue shortfalls. Has the shortfall in state income taxes tracked that of the sales tax, or is there reason to believe that there is money being spent for which no income tax was paid?
The Days of 'Buy and Hold' Are Over, Says John Mauldin
Duh! After all the monkey business by the Fed and the bailout by the treasury? It is more like days of 'Buy and get ready to stampede' are here. When the stampede happens, it will be spectacular.
The few bullion dealers that will take credit cards for payment, have a sign in their retail stores, or words on the internet that says "All transactions based upon cash purchase price", and they ding you for around 5% more.
Seeing as the buy/sell spread is around $25 on a 1 oz gold coin, they have no alternative but to charge you more, when you whip out plastic fantastic to trade them for real money.
I have always wondered about the lender getting paid the mortgage insurance and forclosing to resell the property. Are they getting paid twice? Or does the lender only get the insurance for the differance between what was owed and what the property resold for?
In any case, I agree. Someone is getting paid twice and it isn't the tax payer who is fronting the money the Fed is using to buy up all the MBS, FHA etc etc.
“This has enormous psychological significance,” said Michael Woolfolk, a managing director at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. in New York. “It opens the way for further gains above $1.50, which is overwhelmingly market consensus.”
Huh, there's some zombie financial "machinery" about 30' away. Never noticed any guys with dark-glasses and ear-plugs in there (well, there's this one geek, but he's... hhhhmm).
The ultimate savings plan: Default on your McMansion (3100 mo savings) and go live with your parents. Default on your car loan (+400 mo) , ins (150 mo), and credit cards (+550 mo). So if you were a family of 3 making 90k a year and reduce your monthly outlays to just groceries, gas, and helping with the utilities at mom's place, you could possibly be bank rolling 5k a month? I think we have found our cash buyers. Talk about morale hazard
This is a fantastic graph, CR. Something that surprised me is I expected more states to be currently at/near their max unemployment, but it appears that in the past, unemployment has been even worse than now. Even Michigan is not at its peak.
'81-'83 was freaking horrific in Michigan and other 'rust belt' states. As were parts of the '70s - equally horrific. That was why I had a hard time last year with the folks from places like Florida & Cali & Arizona & Nevada saying it was the worst it has ever been... maybe there but not by rust belt standards it isn't... we are just now getting in sight of the peak... still not to the summit of Mt Rustbelt Suckiness. Hope ya got oxygen.
The few bullion dealers that will take credit cards for payment, have a sign in their retail stores, or words on the internet that says "All transactions based upon cash purchase price", and they ding you for around 5% more.
Seeing as the buy/sell spread is around $25 on a 1 oz gold coin, they have no alternative but to charge you more, when you whip out plastic fantastic to trade them for real money.
Similar as if you were shopping at the local Gun emporium, cash get the discount credit card gets the foot up the arse....no different really.
Looking at the monthly employment totals, it appears that this decline wasn't due to increasing employment. Employment declined M/M, but the labor force actually shrank a bit more. Thus the rate went down. Rob also pointed out there was a revision up of last months numbers.
they changed the way unemployment is figured years ago. So, no it is not as bad as it got before using different calculations. It isn't apples to apples.
Eric,
thanks, no discounts allowed in the CDN version http://www.visa.ca/en/merchant/products/vbv/pdf/merchantguidelines.pdf
so at least my memory isn't failing me
I wouldn't be surprised to see payment networks considered for anti-trust up here, and we have some of the weakest rules in the world
Coupled with the non-existent wage pressure due to global labor arbitrage...
energyecon,
There is LOTS of wage pressure. Unfortunately for over-indebted Americans, the pressure is to the downside. PPP makes no sense. it should be obvious where that trend is heading.
The Hoisington 3rd quarter review and outlook has been published.
Wow! Terrific link.....so far anyway-
The uncomfortable conclusion of Fisher’s
analysis is that major business cycle fluctuations are,
in fact, caused by over-indebtedness and the fall in
asset prices. Our present situation appears to mirror
the exact sequence of events that have occurred in
previous depressions. This suggests that our current
“great recession” may morph into a more serious
and elongated downward business cycle.
I give his marriage at best a 50/50 chance of surviving
I ditched mine in 2006, before the Crash really got started, and it still took three years.
I saved more money from 2006-2008 while paying for a divorce than I did in twelve years of marriage.
The study of money, above all other fields in economics, is one in which complexity is used to disguise truth or to evade truth, not to reveal it.-- John Kenneth Galbraith
my county put a CC surcharge on paying property taxes by credit card, unless you paid in person; so technically, it was an online/remote convenience charge. the reason was that the idiot services would pay their property taxes with their own rewards based cards...
Less is more these days as well, I would argue dryfly - the level of economic distress a given level of U-3 represents is greater due to structural changes in the economy (self-employeds etc.) also demonstrated by increased spread between U-3 and U-6 though that time series does not go back as far as the Mt. Rustmore dayz...
The Impossible Promise
The federal government’s promise to
extricate the U.S. economy from this recession
involves more spending (increasing public debt)
and more subsidies for consumers, such as car
rebates and home buying incentives (more private
debt). In other words, more debt is supposed to
solve the problem of over-indebtedness. The truth
is that this policy merely indentures its citizens
further without providing any income for repayment
of debt.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Don't ask, don't tell. The underground employment market is having interesting consequences. At first they stopped working and it didn't show up in the official numbers
I guess it may, to an extent, be showing up in the tax revenue shortfalls. Has the shortfall in state income taxes tracked that of the sales tax, or is there reason to believe that there is money being spent for which no income tax was paid?
There's so much cheating going on it is hard to tell. The games are extreme. If you are an illegal but still need a W-2 then you claim 13 dependents and pay little to no income tax anyway. thus losing them does do much for income tax revenues. The recent bump in sales tax 10.75% in places resulted in a decline in reported sales taxable transactions. Hoocoodanode. I'm sorry but 10.75% Sales and 9.4% income plus Federal income are creating a moral hazard. Usury removes any feeling of fairness and encourages more cheating.
Very roughly over the last year and this year CA has come up $60 billion short. This will not end well.
'81-'83 was freaking horrific in Michigan and other 'rust belt' states. As were parts of the '70s - equally horrific. That was why I had a hard time last year with the folks from places like Florida & Cali & Arizona & Nevada saying it was the worst it has ever been... maybe there but not by rust belt standards it isn't...
It's usually better when it happens to other people......
that's what I been trying to do but I haven't made it work yet (didn't default on my house, though). I almost took another consulting job last week at $100K and if I was flying out of Boise, I'd be banking at least $4K / month.
Although there isn't always an absolutely direct relationship between housing price doom and job loss doom. Look at the Carolinas, high unemployment, but not so bad in housing. The NorthWest is the same way. Look at Florida-- housing is radioactive, but unemployment is not as bad as it is here. The 2 dooms are not totally in lockstep.
From a fiscal policy perspective the outlook
for economic growth appears to be one of stagnation
for several years due to the size of the federal debt,
which is expected to rise 35.7% from 2008 levels
to 76.5% of GDP over the next ten years according
to the Office of Management and Budget (Chart 4).
This exercise in government spending is, of course,
an exact replica of the Japanese experience from
1989 to the present.
Usury removes any feeling of fairness and encourages more cheating.
The harder the rich (and boomers) try to keep their money, the faster it fades away.
You can either have a mythical pile of money that can't be redeemed or a relatively honest country.
I honestly don't see what's to be gained by converting the U.S. into Chindixico.
My SWAG is 20-30% of jobs will not come back. Figure in the down ward direction of wages a well.
But we have a lot of dogs. Dog walking jobs have been slashed. Surely we will return to the old number of dog walking jobs because the dogs haven't gone anywhere. I think Krugman once used that argument to justify the monster auto inventory rebuilding economic boost we are living through right now.
Has anyone else noticed a LOT of Real Estate and other commission paid workers spending a lot of time during working hours updating Facebook and playing game apps?
I think most of the would like to be working more...
as opposed to reading CR and other sensible distractions.
And, yes, some of my facebook friends work in real estate.
Hm, there's probably valuable socio-economic data to be extracted from use and time statistics of demographically indexed facebook apps ec
Merchant, Schmerchant. They do it anyway. And I don't mind a bit, because their prices are 30% lower than their competition 5 blocks away, and I have the choice to pay in cash if I want.
You think that might have anything to do with paying less in taxes for the same revenue? Glod Bless the cash economy.
U.S. V. ADAM JASINSKI
(U.S. Dist. Ct., Mass., Oct. 19, 2009) - Adam Jasinski, the winner of CBS's Big Brother reality TV show and publisher of a glossy addiction recovery magazine, was arrested by federal DEA agents in Boston and charged with having and trying to sell oxycodone a/k/a 'Oxy' a/k/a 'Hillbilly Heroin.' Instead of refusing to speak with federal agents without an attorney, a DEA agent maintains that Jasinski "waiv[ed] his Miranda Rights," and then admitted to using his $500,000 in Big Brother winnings to "purchase large quantities of pills" that he would re-sell up and down the East Coast. View Jasinski's charges
like Japan in tactics, not like Japan in the structure of the economy. When you are export heavy, you can zirp, keep reasonable unemployment levels, and kick the can. when your service-oriented and import-heavy, the can will kick you.
Greater Fool wrote:
Do cc's work as a financial product if everyone pays off their balance monthly?
Yes, the merchant pays the cartel price of $x + y% on every transaction
Do cc's work as a financial product if everyone pays off their balance monthly? Yes.
Do cc's work as a financial product if everyone pays off their balance monthly except a certain percentage who don't pay at all? Not so much. For that to work you also need a bunch of suckers making partial payments and incurring penalty fees.
I like to look at the national debt and deficits as a percentage of the private economy. Comparing debt & deficits to total GDP is misleading as the much of our GDP growth has been as a result of growth in Government.
For example, private sector income is down ~5%, way more than total income. That fact is largely hidden by the growth in government incomes.
The cost of bigger government and bailouts will be huge, but never actually reported.
Thanks for posting the report, I liked this one about how exports are gonna save us...
" The inflation outlook from the monetary and fiscal standpoint looks truly deflationary, yet some believe that dollar weakness will reverse this circumstance and create inflation. This is unlikely. First, our imports are about 13% of GDP, and even if the dollar were to halve in value, the price of imported goods would not only have to compete with U.S. producers, but also their price adjustment would have to offset the other 87% of factors included in the pricing indices."
Even there, the doom isn't "consistent." The California coast is still ridiculously expensive, compared to wages, and the state is in such trouble, you'd expect unemployment to be much higher than it is. Look at Arizona unemployment, somewhere around 9%. The only state of these 3 where housing and unemployment have both reached toxic levels: Nevada. Why is that? I have no idea. It's easy to see why Michigan has tanked, but for many of the other states, the explanation is not clear. At least to me.
If this is completely beyond the pale and totally frivolous, I won't use it.
I don't think it's frivolous at all. It is at least good background information as to why the judge should make them show the note, and I don't see any reason you can't send the bank an interrogatory asking who had an interest in the note and whether they had any kind of insurance or swap. Then request 56(f) relief until they respond. You might want to find a 2007 Wall Street Journal article or two on swap coverage and bailout to attach to the motion as background.
That many UE here that it's worth making the statement? How are they paying for frivolities like net access?
Public libraries. Some have wifi as well. Used it when a computer crashed before I realized I could get same access in much quieter environment in the county law library.
Surely Hans, Wu and Shou will continue to devalue their own currencies, making commodities the place to be. Gold 1100 and oil 100 can not be far off. Then of course we should see some inflation.
is it only me - but haven't we seen this movie before. A weakening dollar, spiking commodity prices particularly oil leading to a a real squeeze on indebted borrowers. If gasoline prices do move up from their current levels that once again maybe the straw that breaks the camels back.
Do cc's work as a financial product if everyone pays off their balance monthly?
Revenue to the bank comes from three sources (1) finance charges, (2) fees, and (3) interchange fees paid by merchants. If one of the three get squeezed, then the other two are adjusted to compensate.
Of course unemployment is low in those places.
There's no people there.
Percentage wise snarkster - and there are SOME people there... Minnie is about 5MM, Iowa about 4MM... NE, SD, ND & Kansas I'd guess at 5MM combined... so while a large area the population isn't that small - all combined it is comparable to one large metropolitan area exploded across the plains.
Using Electoral Votes as a proxy for population
Minnie == 10
Iowa == 7
NE == 5
Kansas == 6
SD == 3
ND == 3
This is using the 2000 Census allotments .
There's more people in fly-over country than you think.
This whole crisis is becoming sadly surreal. The government comes out with new positive statements each and every day and the media gleefully reports about them. Meanwhile the bankers are raking in the dough like never before. And the average Americans? Just give them more bread and circus. It has worked for millennia and will do so now. A large percentage of our citizenry (present company excluded) isn't capable of seeing how they have been robbed, duped, conned, fooled, and used.
Whatever was done to pull us out of the recession will eventually go down as the textbook case of exactly what not to do in a financial crisis of this kind. And poor Paul Volcker. He suggests we break up the banks and they treat him like a silly old uncle when he is in fact the wisest man in the room.
"nonfarm payroll employment decreased in 43 states and the District of Columbia "
we just need to remove more people from the labor force, make that unemployment rate look better.
NV = We try harder.........
Fourteen. That's the number of States with double digit UE.
told ya about the inventory draw downs = we haven't yet seen positive employment growth...
on another note, $10 per barrel = -0.4% of OECD GDP growth, so that's great news in a world of shrinking private credit
oh IMF, when will your dart board ever give the correct results, it's bound to happen eventually
CR's headline reminds me I better try to hold on to what little I have.
Later
Well, at least Wall St. bonuses are at record levels again. I can't wait to get trickled down on. The last two trickle down cycles made the majority so much wealthier.
We need a plot of oil, the dollar and wall st. bonuses.
Show me the U6!
I'd just like the UE'd to know that everything is fine at my zombie bank. So, WHY DON'T YOU LOSERS GET OFF YOUR BUTTS AND GET A JOB AND STOP LIVING OFF WELFARE YOU LOSERS!!!
In many ways, this is worse than Paulson’s meeting with Goldman’s board: in this case, Paulson is forcing Lehman to open its books fully to a direct competitor, for no obvious reason. And in this case it’s not at all obvious that Paulson got a sign off from Treasury’s general counsel before doing so.
TAKE THE MARKET ON THIS AWESOME NEWS !!!111!!!!!
forget U6
we're far enough off the trail that you need to rely on employment x hours worked / civilian population over 16
like a captain navigating the seven seas using the stars
I weep for Eric's calls, puts and spreads
/just joking
So how does the increased cash flow to consumers from the high default rates compare to the decreased cash flow to consumers from the difference between employed income and unemployment benefits?
And if that does provide support to PCE, how much longer will it provide support to PCE, given the massive (and for the most part justified) credit tightening by banks?
If only there was some way to capture the number of Americans employed at minimum wage, the number employed at less than minimum wage because classified as "tipped," and the number now working on commission, hoping to sell someone (anyone) a widget at half-off for the holidays.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Hopefully the captain isn't Jonas Grumby.
I'd like to see Nevada get the lead, as far as the amount of hoi unempolloied is concerned.
Gambling is the root of our problems, and the quicker we stick a shiv into it, the bettor off we'll be.
ha! oil over $80. rock on. where is ehp?
RockyR
I'm right here. Oil is a worse investment than a mcmansion right now. It will come to me in time
It will come to me in time
Insert obligatory "the market can remain irrational" comment here.
I just bought some USL this AM.
"So how does the increased cash flow to consumers from the high default rates compare to the decreased cash flow to consumers from the difference between employed income and unemployment benefits?"
Good question, I have brought that up before.
Rough numbers: 200K avg mortgage size, 6% rate = 1200mo P+I, call it 1400mo PITI incl unpaid HOA for condos, money not spent on upkeep, etc.
1400mo * 7.57MM delinquent mortgages = 10.6B in extra stimulus a month / 127.17B a year.
Most importantly, these are savings of after tax dollars.
Pretty significant stimulus.
EDIT: I should add, as I have been saying, not paying your mortgage IS the bailout for the average American. Some just don't realize it.
I completely agree with Salmon's conclusion:
"I suspect this is what happens when you do all your business by phone rather than by email: you’re so comfortable with the fact that you’re not leaving any kind of paper trail, it becomes much easier to cross the line and abuse your position as the most powerful Treasury secretary in living memory to the benefit of your former firm. If the Moscow meeting wasn’t enough to precipitate some kind of Congressional investigation of Paulson, this should be."
I think Paulson feels that he can't be pursued for any of this. He was thinking "above the law? I AM THE LAW!" or something like that.
Oil is a funny thing, we all depend upon it greatly individually, yet none of us have any savings* put away in any quantities, other than what's in the gas tank of our cars.
Just for the record... I've been in a lot of places recently where UE is pretty low... So Dak, No Dak, Neb, Kan, Iowa & Minnesota.
MN is the highest w/ UE3 = 7.3%... even then MUCH lower 'outstate' where I frequent compared w/ the Twin Cities. Even Missouri which has higher UE overall has tighter labor markets in rural NW Missouri where I go.
Didn't somebody post these results in some kind of interactive format once - county by county? If so anyone know where that is? TIA.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
I'llll defaaaaault for Christmas
You can count on meeeee
Eric
That's just it, the market price for oil won't outlast me until February. I don't give a flip at what someone is willing to pay for oil they can't sell on to end demand. The higher it goes, the more goes into inventory, the less margin the inventory can withstand before taking losses.
ghostface-
Any idea how much additional cash flow is provided by the credit card defaults?
Jobs will continue to lag with U6 at 20% because in general the U.S. business model is broken except of course for the banking oligarchs
Job losses are now a leading indicator because the economy is so highly leveraged now that each and every job loss does serious damage as witnessed by the non-stop, continuous bankruptcies of homeowners, businesses, and banks.
What's a Credit Card?
Of course unemployment is low in those places.
There's no people there.
"Any idea how much additional cash flow is provided by the credit card defaults? "
Sorry, not my field, I would guess it is significant, but I don't have any data.
I would add in auto/boat/rv payments into that stimulus as well - i would bet the repo men are busy these days and are a bit behind.
The thing about housing is, there are always delinquencies, just not at this level. at this level, this is true marginal stimulus.
U6 is official at 17%
Shadowstats has it at 21%
Inflation, Money Supply, GDP, Unemployment and the Dollar - Alternate Data Series
I agree that information on number of minimum wage, less than min with tips would be good to have. Colorado just lowered their minimum wage.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
A sophisticated financial tool that unfortunately all too often ends up in the hands of the unsophisticated.
Greater Fool wrote:
Unlike the mortgage, on the defaulting credit card holder, the issuer can shut down the account very quickly. The old debt my be sunk cost, and available for other spending, but no new extensions will occur.
How many Americans relied upon credit cards in the 1930's, when they were stony broke?
Not a single one...
The third-quarter results included an accounting loss of $900 million, or 36 cents a share, from a rise in the value of the firm's debt. Writing up debt caused a loss of $2.3 billion in the second quarter, while writing it down brought a whopping $9.7 billion gain in the year-ago quarter.
Morgan Stanley stashed away about $5 billion in the third quarter for year-end bonuses, lifting its bonus pool to $10.9 billion. Goldman has set aside nearly $17 billion so far.
Morgan Stanley's consolidated net revenue in the quarter fell 52 percent to $8.7 billion, again reflecting the one-time accounting gains in the year-ago period.
YouTube - Creep by The Pretenders
1400mo * 7.57MM delinquent mortgages = 10.6B in extra stimulus a month / 127.17B a year.
Ghost,
To that I would subtract ~ $500 billion due to decreased MEW. I would also subtract another $500 billion due to reduced spending from consumers that are NOT delinquent but are underwater or have significantly reduced net worths.
Net, net, the housing/credit bust is a big negative for PCE. Consider, S&P 500 sales are down $1.52 trilliion over the past 12 months.
Jesse's summation:
Jesse's Café Américain
Ahh, glad I am not of the unsophisticated type.
Serious though I have not owned a credit card in almost 12 years now...I like to keep my paycheck....opps knock at the door some black suit and tie types.
Is that a stagecoach I see in the distance?
Bob Dobbs wrote:
Bob put it better than I did in my response to Mike. In a stable financial and monetary environment, I think ETFs are the bees knees to give exposure to areas of your investment portfolio where spending time and energy tracking individual players or pieces would be risky and cost-prohibitive. However as Wall^Street continues to show us, putting your faith in them is definitely risky at best and devastating at worse because they already got paid regardless of what happens to your positions short or long.
in human relationships.
.
No shared risk in that relationship and coming from a Family Law perspective, that situation can spell
I'll put it in context for everyone
for oil to be supported at $80 per barrel, the US retail gasoline would have to increase at least 24% from whatever your local price is today.
That is assuming that all the oil and distillates in inventory can remain there in perpetuity
broward wrote:
Percentage wise snarkster - and there are SOME people there... Minnie is about 5MM, Iowa about 4MM... NE, SD, ND & Kansas I'd guess at 5MM combined... so while a large area the population isn't that small - all combined it is comparable to one large metropolitan area exploded across the plains.
That is why I'm interested in more granular data - county by county. Know where it is? I saw a link to it [I think it was here] a few months back.
Yes with John Wayne
New poll about foreign travel-
*dryfly wrote:
If you are going to spend the winter cruising the highway through those states.. I pity you. And I've done enough of it to know.
And then say goodbye to the recovery (or any hope of a recovery).
dryfly
Last BLS county mapped data is for August 2009
interactive county map (as of May 09)
- NY Times
...nonfarm payroll employment decreased in 43 states and the District of Columbia ...
Now, I'm guessing that adding in farm payroll would not make a big difference in the District of Columbia.
I'll put it in context for everyone
for oil to be supported at $80 per barrel, the US retail gasoline would have to increase at least 24% from whatever your local price is today.
EHP,
Any context should include the value of the dollar.
That's just it, the market price for oil won't outlast me until February. I
What's your position, futures or puts?
broward wrote:
Low population levels mean that each job loss is even more significant from a percentage standpoint-
There is no recovery without an improvement in employment as this is a balance sheet recession, not an inventory recession.
yagij wrote:
there's plenty of shared risk, it's just at a more abstract, long-term level.
In regards to ETF's...
Angry Saver
That's the beauty of a commodity dependent on US consumption for 25% of total demand, already stored in the US, and on the books in terms of the USD
The US could adopt chicken s**t as its national currency, and that oil would still have to clear the market
Is the Market still open or what?.....
http://images.huffingtonpost.com/2008-10-27-zombie1.jpg
dryfly wrote:
I'm not sure I'd call them "people", but the reason unemployment is lower is that there's a minimum level you need to keep the 7-11s and McDonald's running for people passing through town.
wally wrote:
Hell I love it - been doing it for 25 years now. I'd rather be running out and back [E-W] on US Hwy 30 or N-S on US Hwy 71 than stuck bumper to bumper on the NW Tollway out of Chicago ANY DAY winter or summer.
But it is an alternate reality to what I experience in the city for sure.
energyecon wrote:
I like Jesse, but the problem is simpler than this, because it's not JUST a US financial crisis.
The problem is political: How do the average people of a society (meaning the statistical majority of people) create a political system that can control/regulate/manage the smart-amoral-scumbags of society.
Personally, I don't think it's possible, which is why were all here right now watching the post-game-show of the end-of-democracy.
broward wrote:
Boy we have become jaded lately haven't we? Besides some of those non-people are the nice folks serving you up whiskey at the pool hall - cut'em some slack alright?
broward wrote:
Not enough to calculate an impact for 95%. Academics can spend the years haggling over the abstract, long-term level. After all in the long run we all die. Everything returns to zero.
.
If I lost my shirt in GLD, I know other GLD owners lost their shirt, but the monkey brain stops there. The people who issued GLD got paid. If anyone actively sold me GLD, they got paid. The people who sold their shares got paid.
Do cc's work as a financial product if everyone pays off their balance monthly?
This is interesting. Unemployment rates by county. Check out the difference in less than a year.
CAUTION: PDF files.
http://www.bls.gov/lau/maps/aacnrt.pdf
http://www.bls.gov/lau/maps/twmcort.pdf
broward wrote:
//Plonk//
/Just for the record... I've been in a lot of places recently where UE is pretty low... So Dak, No Dak, Neb, Kan, Iowa & Minnesota./
Roughly 14.2 Million combined population. or roughly the population of Virginia & New Jersey combined.
Reminder: CA + TX + NY + FL = 100 Million population.
yagij wrote:
Yep, it is that "getting paid" part that is tricky.
The two options are:
- Oil prices collapse, end the risk on trade
- Oil prices get passed on to end consumers, US consumption collapses, emerging markets collapse from wedge of input prices and decreased demand, end of risk on trade
We have less runway for inventory than there is for consumption, so I think that's where the story ends
The California unemployment rate actually declined a little tiny bit from last month:
California State Unemployment Rate | Department of Numbers
Does it matter?
josap wrote:
Touche. What about the people who issued it got paid. The rest of us are working our hustle in hopes of getting paid?
dryfly wrote:
True.
Bartender chicks in Richland were far too friendly on Monday.
Their eyes widening when I pulled out an actual $50 bill.
Must not get much cash out that way.
Stores pay a percent of sales for accepting the CCs.
So there is income, but I don't think much profit after expences. Not sure.
I'll ask the question once more...
Why aren't there Cash ETF's?
That's the beauty of a commodity dependent on a US consumer for marginal demand
EHP,
The thing is, I'm not sure the American CONsumer is the source of marginal demand going forward. OECD oil use has been falling for several years, yet overall demand (until the financial crisis hit) was rising. Plus, a lot of countries have huge reserves that are going into stimulus plans.
Longer term, I agree with you. But while governments are printing money and embarking on massive stimulus programs, I have doubts. Another thing to keep in mind is that world wide oil demand barely fell during the Great Depression (down a few % max IIRC).
Greater Fool wrote:
Yes, the merchant pays the cartel price of $x + y% on every transaction, fees vary by card, charging a lower cash-only price is forbidden by the contract
NaRM,
Perhaps it is cyclical, all you can do is metphorically keep cutting back the brush...
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
That many UE here that it's worth making the statement? How are they paying for frivolities like net access?
(Removed as duplication)
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
You can get ultra long/short Yen or Euro ETFs. Do they count?
Angry Saver wrote:
I'm not talking about the distant future. You don't store oil above ground for years. I'm talking about demand needed to clear the market today. Stop trying to reconcile the weather outside your window today, with the farmer's almanac's forecast for a year from now.
Mass. puts a number on its state layoffs: 726
The article requested is no longer available.
Show us what happened to the labor force - how many people got defined out of the UE rate to result in that drop as CA lost jobs?
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
What would you use to buy them? Gold?
We need money fast, right now. It's really time for our military to invade and takeover the banks of the Caribbean islands to confiscate the trillions of dollars that were stolen from the American taxpayers and buried there by our politicians, congressmen, and elites to evade taxation and jail time. Unfortunately, paying taxes is for the little people and petty theft is the main theme of prosecution and prison time.
I'm talking about an ETF that takes your Benjamins and stores them for you, because you don't trust yourself.
Bernard Guerrero wrote:
UE insureance, and severance of course. Plus the market has been kind of helpful and it is hard to daytrade without one.
Ben wrote:
Subtle bit of legerdemain going on in those numbers. The UE went from 12.3% to 12.2% month over month after revising last month up from 12.2% to 12.3%. Despite 10s of thousands new people added to the workforce there were fewer total jobs month over month. Got that? All the real numbers are worse. All of them.
I wonder what effect $81.28/bbl oil is going to have on the job situation.
My cousin in Idaho hasn't been able to find a job in over 18 months, even the 7-11 type jobs. Is he structurally unemployable if the only job he can hold is a seasonable bell ringer?
Ben,
Did CA decline on secular grounds, that is it actually declined via re-employment? Or did it decline via chronic unemployment where people were simply dropped from rolls, and/or 1099 proliferation.
Put it another way, a remarkable number of people have been laid off at companies only to be 1099'd back. Companies purge the carry costs from their books and burden of carry costs (health insurance...) gets carried by the 1099 and they are removed from the survey's that businesses fill out regarding W2s. Win-Win right?
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Yes, so instead they mark up the price when you use a CC. My local liquor store adds $1 to every CC purchase.
energyecon wrote:
I hope so, I'm sure the people that believe in "human progress" hope so. However, I suspect that China has the political model that the US nobility will want to emulate for the future. The peasant dumbasses will never notice as long as they've got enough food, TV, and patriotic icons to keep them happy.
The problem is political: How do the average people of a society (meaning the statistical majority of people) create a political system that can control/regulate/manage the smart-amoral-scumbags of society.
energyecon,
That is why I favor a hard tether like gold to limit senseless credit expansion. Gold never limited productive credit expansion, despite what many believe. Gold did limit and force the liquidation of non-economic credit. Private credit backed by output did and could easily compete with gold as a means of exchange and store of value. It's the fraudulent credit that can't handle a gold standard.
Denninger and others miss this key point.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Those instruments are called bonds and CDs.
Thanks Feckless - that was what I was looking for - tells me a lot more than the overly aggregate state numbers. Interesting.
How often do they update that?
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Like a money market fund?
OMG This guy can't even cheat and make a profit.
In Fraud Case, a Deal That Lost Millions - CNBC
sm_landlord wrote:
At least in Canada they cut-off merchants that they catch offering a separate price. They are allowed to have a minimum transaction amount though
When did the 1st ETF emerge out of the financial ooze... about 10 years ago or so?
dryfly wrote:
Dunno, but I want the over/under for when the entire state of MI goes black!
Rob Dawg wrote:
Are illegal immigrants allowed to collect in CA, or do they just go back to college (at state expense)?
"The thing is, I'm not sure the American CONsumer is the source of marginal demand going forward. OECD oil use has been falling for several years, yet overall demand (until the financial crisis hit) was rising. Plus, a lot of countries have huge reserves that are going into stimulus plans."
Isn't China the largest auto market in the world now? i.e I thought last month they sold more cars than the US?
Yes, so instead they mark up the price when you use a CC. My local liquor store adds $1 to every CC purchase.
Are you in the U.S.? That's explicitly forbidden by the merchant agreement.
I have to admit, I turned down one serious job offer last week. And my previous offer in Seattle might have worked out if I'd dicked around with it but I'm just damn tired of being deceived. It's a bad way to start a job and I've had it happen too much in the past few years.
dryfly wrote:
Just for the record... I've been in a lot of places recently where UE is pretty low... So Dak, No Dak, Neb, Kan, Iowa & Minnesota
Unfortunately, these states represent a small percentage of our nation's total population
I wonder what effect $81.28/bbl oil is going to have on the job situation.
ac,
I'm guessing Bernanke and the Fed believe inflation will increase velocity. I'm not sure that will be the outcome this time around as there are limits to the amount of debt an economy can carry. Today's debt levels are not even remotely close to the those of the 1970s. Key distinction imo.
steelhead wrote:
He's structurally unemployed if he has the skills to get a job but there are no jobs that match those skills. Also, how do you season a bell ringer>
Revise the previous numbers enough and you can make current numbers look encouraging! This game seems to get played quite often these days.
t r orwell wrote:
I could be wrong, but I've heard rumors that most of the money isn't stored IN these banks - like in bags or anything. Most of the money is actually floating around the internet - virtual wealth that can be accessed by the smart-amoral-scumbags (who, being smart, would plan for this).
So, I suspect - should our glorious Armies invade the Caribbean - all we'd get would be some computers for our efforts.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Their version of auto-stimulus was cutting the big purchase tax on engines under 0.8L, and that's where the sales came from. That was combined with a big cut to the price of gasoline. 2 more caveats: you can need 2 cars because of alternating days of license plate restrictions, there is no developed used car market yet.
Autos is one of 5 economic pillars they are trying to develop. It doesn't matter what demand is, they're going to hit their quotas
To answer your actual question, yes they sold the most monthly units since February when the stimulus started. Didn't check if C4C took the lead back.
I'm not positive how they account for sales though. I would think it is upon final sale / purchase tax, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was upon sale to the dealership.
College enrollment.
Virginia and I'm sure other states experienced a one-time off decrease in UE in august due to an increase in enrollment.
Governor Kaine last month:
"While August is a transition month from summer to fall, Virginia's unemployment rate improved in part due to record fall enrollments in the Commonwealth's large and important higher education sector and the downstream impact of stimulus money spent on Virginia's military bases creating jobs for private sector contractors."
Official Site of the Governor of Virginia
Rob Dawg wrote:
Tell me about it. My BIL lost his computer IT job (at a bank, of course) at the start of this mess, unable to find work in the Southern California job market. During this time, he has since had his hair go completely gray, and lost 25 lbs. I give his marriage at best a 50/50 chance of surviving this gap in employment.
Just one statistic among millions, I know, but when I hear about "record bonuses" at the banks, my blood boils.
I think most people have figured in MEW and lower spending from under water borrowers. I certainly hadn't figured in the stimulus from people not making their mortgage and other debt payments. It helps explain why even with a loss of 8MM jobs and loss of MEW an increase in the savings rate to 5% retail sales are only down about 6% year on year.
Whatever the number one has to figure that the "good news" is already in the economy. Either these folks are going to have to start making payments on the modifications or else they are going to get tossed from their homes and will have to start making payments on rentals.
It's easy to get around, you offer a discount for cash. Credit card price = $X but you get a 3.5% discount for cash. Nothing in the merchant agreements about not being able to offer a cash discount. It's standard-operating-practice for small retail.
~splat
Eric wrote:
Merchant, Schmerchant. They do it anyway. And I don't mind a bit, because their prices are 30% lower than their competition 5 blocks away, and I have the choice to pay in cash if I want.
t r orwell wrote:
I'm well aware of that - I don't live in those other places - I live here and the highly aggregated state numbers mean nothing in a very large region w/ lumpy demographics. In a region with a more homogeneous population distribution or a lot smaller area [say in the east] it works pretty well. Not in most of the country. Not out on the plains, mountain west or west coast. That's why I asked.
OT, but it shows I'm listening to the discussions here, and I want you guy's
opinion.
In the course of my foreclosure defenses, which started off simple-minded, and
have gotten fancier, I have been mulling the derivative situation and the postings
about hey, if you got paid because you bought credit default insurance, or some
other sort of protection, why should you be able to foreclose too, and this hypothetically
get paid twice.
And I have a foreclosure from a mtg originaled by WaMu, and taken over and
foreclosed by JPMorgan Chase. Didn't JPMorgan get a bunch of money from the
government to cover losses? If so, maybe they shouldn't get paid twice either?
If this is completely beyond the pale and totally frivolous, I won't use it, but it
seems to me if that's the case, my guy may owe the taxpayers something, and
not JPMorgan--not all of it anyway. The taxpayers aren't foreclosing, and we all know they will never
get any money.
Also, the mortgage was filed without a legal description!!! And they said they
lost the note, but now they claim they found the note. The mtg still has no
legal description.
That's like an address by the way. You can identify a parcel by legal, by tax folio No, or the like
or by address.
My affidavit sez they have to prove it's this property they mortgaged, since he bought
several at the time. This should be very easy to do, except they haven't done anything
since April, 2009.
Plus, I have a client who foolishly lent her credit to a scondrel (which was very
stupid and bad of course), but they agreed to stop hounding her for money,
and we wouldn't fight the foreclosure. Once again, nothing happened for
a very long time. The last payment was some time like June 2007. the scondrel,
who is still living there and was, way before she lent her credit, now has filed
a motion to set aside the summary judgment and this seems to have been
granted. So the lender is no closer to kicking anybody out then they were 2 1/2 years
ago!!!
Cinco-X wrote:
Don't ask, don't tell. The underground employment market is having interesting consequences. At first they stopped working and it didn't show up in the official numbers but now desperation is turning into labor predation. I have no comments, only observations.
black dog wrote:
People who can't find work get a student loan and go to school. With grants, loans and scholorships you can keep a roof over your head and food on the table.
Some people are taking early SS or filing for disability.
sm_landlord wrote:
Talk to Lefty, I hear he gives cash-back-at-closing.
(I've been told he'll take PayPal and Rolex watches, too...)
Can I haz $82 dollar Oil.
DCRogers,
Your BIL should cut bait and run from CA. DC market for IT is still brisk given his ability to get a clearance. He worked for a bank so they already pulled the financial + criminal record search on him and clearly it came clean.
This is a fantastic graph, CR. Something that surprised me is I expected more states to be currently at/near their max unemployment, but it appears that in the past, unemployment has been even worse than now. Even Michigan is not at its peak.
I wonder what it looks like if you use state employment (i.e. to remove the effects of people who have "stopped looking")?
DCRogers wrote:
Hey, come on, these people are the foundation of Merica, the honest hard-workin' bidness leaders of Merica (WHO WORK FOR A LIVING, AND DON'T EXPECT TO LIVE OFF WELFARE LIKE THESE UNEMPLOYED PEOPLE DO, NO) they work and pay taxes (TO LOSERS, WHO JUST LEACH OFF OF WELFARE - THAT'S WHAT'S WRONG WITH MERICA TODAY, ALL THESE PEOPLE ON WELFARE) so, remember bonuses are a sign of free-enterprise (AND FREEDOM AND DEMOCRACY AND EAGLES AND FLAGS AND SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST - GET A JOB YOU HIPPY!!!)
splat wrote:
If the merchant agreement is at all similar to Canada, offering a lower non-CC price is explicitly forbidden. Probably just that no one has reported those stores, and they haven't been checked. If one day those stores get caught processing a fraudulent transaction, and they send an investigator out who sees the dual-pricing, they get kicked off the CC network
.....Wait a sec.........Without gambling we couldn't enjoy our weekly $9.61 mega-buffet-for-2 (including beverages) at our local Pahrump Nugget, open 7-days a week for your eating pleasure.......how was THAT, Jeremy?
josap,
quite right. take your gmat, apply for MS program that transitions nicely into a phd program. usuall the ms program will hold you for 2 years, then you transition into the phd program where you can count on another 6 years...8 years from now, and things just have to look better...right?
/crickets/
Blackhalo wrote:
Ah, daytraders! Self-employed, eh?
OT: I think we covered this trend yesterday:
3000 job cuts at Sun aren't going to help. We should start using the less politically charged phraseology instead of job losses or layoffs.
An organization I worked for preferred the term "transitioned from the organization". The CEO of that org was "transitioned" to other opportunities himself about 12 month later, fortunately his $1.5 mil payoff helped soften the blow of unemployment.
~splat
Rob Dawg wrote:
I guess it may, to an extent, be showing up in the tax revenue shortfalls. Has the shortfall in state income taxes tracked that of the sales tax, or is there reason to believe that there is money being spent for which no income tax was paid?
The Days of 'Buy and Hold' Are Over, Says John Mauldin
Duh! After all the monkey business by the Fed and the bailout by the treasury? It is more like days of 'Buy and get ready to stampede' are here. When the stampede happens, it will be spectacular.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/358304/The-Days-Of-%27Buy-and-Hold%27-Are-Over-says-John-Mauldin?tickers=^dji,^gspc,di,SPY,xhb&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
The few bullion dealers that will take credit cards for payment, have a sign in their retail stores, or words on the internet that says "All transactions based upon cash purchase price", and they ding you for around 5% more.
Seeing as the buy/sell spread is around $25 on a 1 oz gold coin, they have no alternative but to charge you more, when you whip out plastic fantastic to trade them for real money.
I have always wondered about the lender getting paid the mortgage insurance and forclosing to resell the property. Are they getting paid twice? Or does the lender only get the insurance for the differance between what was owed and what the property resold for?
In any case, I agree. Someone is getting paid twice and it isn't the tax payer who is fronting the money the Fed is using to buy up all the MBS, FHA etc etc.
Dollar Slips Beyond $1.50 per Euro for First Time in 14 Months - Bloomberg.com
“This has enormous psychological significance,” said Michael Woolfolk, a managing director at Bank of New York Mellon Corp. in New York. “It opens the way for further gains above $1.50, which is overwhelmingly market consensus.”
yagij wrote:
Huh, there's some zombie financial "machinery" about 30' away. Never noticed any guys with dark-glasses and ear-plugs in there (well, there's this one geek, but he's... hhhhmm).
With salt and pepper, and a bit of nutmeg and cinnamon.
Pour some rum over him also. and send him to the Netherlands to get some milk or
cream poured on.
The ultimate savings plan: Default on your McMansion (3100 mo savings) and go live with your parents. Default on your car loan (+400 mo) , ins (150 mo), and credit cards (+550 mo). So if you were a family of 3 making 90k a year and reduce your monthly outlays to just groceries, gas, and helping with the utilities at mom's place, you could possibly be bank rolling 5k a month? I think we have found our cash buyers. Talk about morale hazard
X wrote:
'81-'83 was freaking horrific in Michigan and other 'rust belt' states. As were parts of the '70s - equally horrific. That was why I had a hard time last year with the folks from places like Florida & Cali & Arizona & Nevada saying it was the worst it has ever been... maybe there but not by rust belt standards it isn't... we are just now getting in sight of the peak... still not to the summit of Mt Rustbelt Suckiness. Hope ya got oxygen.
Similar as if you were shopping at the local Gun emporium, cash get the discount credit card gets the foot up the arse....no different really.
blackhat wrote:
Looking at the monthly employment totals, it appears that this decline wasn't due to increasing employment. Employment declined M/M, but the labor force actually shrank a bit more. Thus the rate went down. Rob also pointed out there was a revision up of last months numbers.
Source:
Bureau of Labor Statistics Data
Wait a minute. The chart says Oregon is above 12%, but we just went down to 11.5% in September. So is this data older than that?
State unemployment slides slightly to 11.5 percent
,rad NOTaREALmerican,
We have you cornered. Throw down your CAP-gun and come out peacefully.
The Hoisington 3rd quarter review and outlook has been published.
http://hoisingtonmgt.com/pdf/HIM2009Q3NP.pdf
x
they changed the way unemployment is figured years ago. So, no it is not as bad as it got before using different calculations. It isn't apples to apples.
You can offer cash discounts in the U.S.
http://usa.visa.com/download/merchants/rules_for_visa_merchants.pdf
Pages 9 through 12.
lawyerliz wrote:
I guess that's better than hanging him in a cool, dry garage for 2-3 weeks.
Coupled with the non-existent wage pressure due to global labor arbitrage...
Exactly Aug magically revised to 12.3% so they can show a .1% decrease instead of a flat UE.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
SEE, ANOTHER LIBERAL TAKING AWAY MY RIGHT TO BEAR ARMS!! FOR WHAT, JUST BECAUSE I'M PSYCHOTIC?!
WestSac_grrl wrote:
Why not use that magic to create jobs instead!?
Didn't somebody post these results in some kind of interactive format once - county by county? If so anyone know where that is? TIA.
- NY Times
Eric,
thanks, no discounts allowed in the CDN version http://www.visa.ca/en/merchant/products/vbv/pdf/merchantguidelines.pdf
so at least my memory isn't failing me
I wouldn't be surprised to see payment networks considered for anti-trust up here, and we have some of the weakest rules in the world
Coupled with the non-existent wage pressure due to global labor arbitrage...
energyecon,
There is LOTS of wage pressure. Unfortunately for over-indebted Americans, the pressure is to the downside. PPP makes no sense. it should be obvious where that trend is heading.
An interactive map of vanishing employment across the country. - By Chris Wilson - Slate Magazine
has the county data through June (so last updated in August)
also, Map: LA
(select the Counties tab at the top, only shows one state at a time. but current with unemployment % and 12 month change)
not recommended with CA's delta counties - might burn a hole in the monitor...
Another reason why the recovery is way off......way off!
Housing-related job sectors taking the big long-term hit
Housing-Related Job Sectors Taking the Big Long-Term Hit | Piggington's Econo-Almanac | San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis
So when are the green jobs going to start filling the employment gap ?
~splat
Mr Slippery wrote:
Wow! Terrific link.....so far anyway-
DCRogers wrote:
I ditched mine in 2006, before the Crash really got started, and it still took three years.
I saved more money from 2006-2008 while paying for a divorce than I did in twelve years of marriage.
barfly - that was one of them. I wish they'd update that every month... thanks.
my county put a CC surcharge on paying property taxes by credit card, unless you paid in person; so technically, it was an online/remote convenience charge. the reason was that the idiot services would pay their property taxes with their own rewards based cards...
splat wrote:
When we're all reduced to subsidence farming, apparently.
Whenever I see the words "green" or "organic", I add 50% to what it should have cost, if it wasn't.
Less is more these days as well, I would argue dryfly - the level of economic distress a given level of U-3 represents is greater due to structural changes in the economy (self-employeds etc.) also demonstrated by increased spread between U-3 and U-6 though that time series does not go back as far as the Mt. Rustmore dayz...
Mr Slippery wrote:
http://hoisingtonmgt.com/pdf/HIM2009Q3NP.pdf
More:
Cinco-X wrote:
There's so much cheating going on it is hard to tell. The games are extreme. If you are an illegal but still need a W-2 then you claim 13 dependents and pay little to no income tax anyway. thus losing them does do much for income tax revenues. The recent bump in sales tax 10.75% in places resulted in a decline in reported sales taxable transactions. Hoocoodanode. I'm sorry but 10.75% Sales and 9.4% income plus Federal income are creating a moral hazard. Usury removes any feeling of fairness and encourages more cheating.
Very roughly over the last year and this year CA has come up $60 billion short. This will not end well.
Thanks Mr. Slippery.
Very good read.
http://hoisingtonmgt.com/pdf/HIM2009Q3NP.pdf
hahaha - ouch! wage pressure in the context of the inflation discussion would be upwards, but your point is well taken...
dryfly wrote:
It's usually better when it happens to other people......
WestSac_grrl wrote:
that's what I been trying to do but I haven't made it work yet (didn't default on my house, though). I almost took another consulting job last week at $100K and if I was flying out of Boise, I'd be banking at least $4K / month.
Although there isn't always an absolutely direct relationship between housing price doom and job loss doom. Look at the Carolinas, high unemployment, but not so bad in housing. The NorthWest is the same way. Look at Florida-- housing is radioactive, but unemployment is not as bad as it is here. The 2 dooms are not totally in lockstep.
Yes, I found much to agree with in the Hoisington report.
My SWAG is 20-30% of jobs will not come back. Figure in the down ward direction of wages a well.
LEH returns to mortgage market, Aurora hiring...
They may not be firing on all cylinders, but at least there's smoke coming out tail pipe.
josap wrote:
Agreed! Here's more:
Rob Dawg wrote:
The harder the rich (and boomers) try to keep their money, the faster it fades away.
You can either have a mythical pile of money that can't be redeemed or a relatively honest country.
I honestly don't see what's to be gained by converting the U.S. into Chindixico.
The 2 dooms are not totally in lockstep.
Unless you are in AZ, CA or NV.
We are special.
Oil nearing $82 a barrel! I called this price spike at 10:30 ET.
Noob?
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
But we have a lot of dogs. Dog walking jobs have been slashed. Surely we will return to the old number of dog walking jobs because the dogs haven't gone anywhere. I think Krugman once used that argument to justify the monster auto inventory rebuilding economic boost we are living through right now.
Has anyone else noticed a LOT of Real Estate and other commission paid workers spending a lot of time during working hours updating Facebook and playing game apps?
I think most of the would like to be working more...
And, yes, some of my facebook friends work in real estate.
Hm, there's probably valuable socio-economic data to be extracted from use and time statistics of demographically indexed facebook apps ec
Latin America plans US dollar replacement
Latin America plans US dollar replacement
tncubsfan wrote:
If you can call when the Cubs will win the World Series, then we'll be impressed-
broward wrote:
As I've been trying to say here for YEARS - you can't eat the money.
You think that might have anything to do with paying less in taxes for the same revenue? Glod Bless the cash economy.
Meanwhile, in other news
Three years ago he would have flipped houses....
U.S. V. ADAM JASINSKI
(U.S. Dist. Ct., Mass., Oct. 19, 2009) - Adam Jasinski, the winner of CBS's Big Brother reality TV show and publisher of a glossy addiction recovery magazine, was arrested by federal DEA agents in Boston and charged with having and trying to sell oxycodone a/k/a 'Oxy' a/k/a 'Hillbilly Heroin.' Instead of refusing to speak with federal agents without an attorney, a DEA agent maintains that Jasinski "waiv[ed] his Miranda Rights," and then admitted to using his $500,000 in Big Brother winnings to "purchase large quantities of pills" that he would re-sell up and down the East Coast. View Jasinski's charges
cinco-x,
from except:
like Japan in tactics, not like Japan in the structure of the economy. When you are export heavy, you can zirp, keep reasonable unemployment levels, and kick the can. when your service-oriented and import-heavy, the can will kick you.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Do cc's work as a financial product if everyone pays off their balance monthly? Yes.
Do cc's work as a financial product if everyone pays off their balance monthly except a certain percentage who don't pay at all? Not so much. For that to work you also need a bunch of suckers making partial payments and incurring penalty fees.
Cinco-x,
I like to look at the national debt and deficits as a percentage of the private economy. Comparing debt & deficits to total GDP is misleading as the much of our GDP growth has been as a result of growth in Government.
For example, private sector income is down ~5%, way more than total income. That fact is largely hidden by the growth in government incomes.
The cost of bigger government and bailouts will be huge, but never actually reported.
,rad Slippery,
Thanks for posting the report, I liked this one about how exports are gonna save us...
" The inflation outlook from the monetary and fiscal standpoint looks truly deflationary, yet some believe that dollar weakness will reverse this circumstance and create inflation. This is unlikely. First, our imports are about 13% of GDP, and even if the dollar were to halve in value, the price of imported goods would not only have to compete with U.S. producers, but also their price adjustment would have to offset the other 87% of factors included in the pricing indices."
Cinco-X
Cubs world series? I'm hoping they win before I die and I'm in my 30's! I will say they will win in 2012, then the world will end
Boeing Posts $1.56 Billion Loss After 787, 747 Charge (Update5) - Bloomberg.com
the news out of boeing is scary. any further delays on the 787 risk the entire company.
If you can call when the Cubs will win the World Series, then we'll be impressed-
Calling THAT is easy. Never!
Some things just are.
Unless you are in AZ, CA or NV.- j
Even there, the doom isn't "consistent." The California coast is still ridiculously expensive, compared to wages, and the state is in such trouble, you'd expect unemployment to be much higher than it is. Look at Arizona unemployment, somewhere around 9%. The only state of these 3 where housing and unemployment have both reached toxic levels: Nevada. Why is that? I have no idea. It's easy to see why Michigan has tanked, but for many of the other states, the explanation is not clear. At least to me.
scone wrote:
Wages yes, but not assets. There's lots of old pilfered loot on the California coast. The "wages" are just the support staff.
shill wrote:
This won't end well.
At least we'll have one currency more ridiculous than the US dollar out there...
lawyerliz wrote:
I don't think it's frivolous at all. It is at least good background information as to why the judge should make them show the note, and I don't see any reason you can't send the bank an interrogatory asking who had an interest in the note and whether they had any kind of insurance or swap. Then request 56(f) relief until they respond. You might want to find a 2007 Wall Street Journal article or two on swap coverage and bailout to attach to the motion as background.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
SPY was launched Jan of 1993.
"Put it another way, a remarkable number of people have been laid off at companies only to be 1099'd back. "
You can't have 1099 workers on full time hours. There are laws against that.
*> Are you in the U.S.? That's explicitly forbidden by the merchant agreement. *
On my street, they only slow down when driving past a stop sign.
dryfly wrote:
So we should all buy farms?
shill wrote:
Surely Hans, Wu and Shou will continue to devalue their own currencies, making commodities the place to be. Gold 1100 and oil 100 can not be far off. Then of course we should see some inflation.
is it only me - but haven't we seen this movie before. A weakening dollar, spiking commodity prices particularly oil leading to a a real squeeze on indebted borrowers. If gasoline prices do move up from their current levels that once again maybe the straw that breaks the camels back.
Greater Fool wrote:
Revenue to the bank comes from three sources (1) finance charges, (2) fees, and (3) interchange fees paid by merchants. If one of the three get squeezed, then the other two are adjusted to compensate.
dryfly wrote:
Using Electoral Votes as a proxy for population
Minnie == 10
Iowa == 7
NE == 5
Kansas == 6
SD == 3
ND == 3
This is using the 2000 Census allotments .
There's more people in fly-over country than you think.
Is someone that works at a grow-house employed or unemployed ?
I prefer the phrase "transferred to the competition"
glad to report that the Hoosier state recently reported a DECLINE from 9.9% to 9.6%.
This whole crisis is becoming sadly surreal. The government comes out with new positive statements each and every day and the media gleefully reports about them. Meanwhile the bankers are raking in the dough like never before. And the average Americans? Just give them more bread and circus. It has worked for millennia and will do so now. A large percentage of our citizenry (present company excluded) isn't capable of seeing how they have been robbed, duped, conned, fooled, and used.
Whatever was done to pull us out of the recession will eventually go down as the textbook case of exactly what not to do in a financial crisis of this kind. And poor Paul Volcker. He suggests we break up the banks and they treat him like a silly old uncle when he is in fact the wisest man in the room.