Didn't you see the left hand of the government and the right hand of the government extend both middle fingers and cross them like so...and you get your V. Better?
"Some larger stimulus-funded building activity should be coming online over the next several months, partially offsetting the steep decline in private commercial construction," Baker said.
Main Street is broke, so the Gov spends. But it is all our money to repay in the end.
JP said on a few threads ago in regard to Martin Armstrong...
[JD: The more I read of that Huygen's article, the more out-to-lunch the author appeared. If that article is representative, then the author qualifies as a crank.]
JP,
I know nothing about waves & cycles and don't really figure them into my analysis, which tends to lean heavily on the historical.
Martin's story is amazing. He was jailed on contempt of court charges for 7 years, and then was sentenced to 5 years, but no credit for time served. This was a man whose views were courted all over the world by the high & mighty.
CR:
your blog, your rules. I don't mind. I'm happy you post at all.
on a side note, if there are two posts you want up back to back, perhaps join them into one?
The decreased architectural billing could be combined with decreased mortgage originations (IMO)
the discussion of the two can dovetail pretty well.
heck, we manage to combine discussions of Fed Lending Facilities with squirrel recipes!
RD,
Didn't you see the left hand of the government and the right hand of the government extend both middle fingers and cross them like so...and you get your V. Better?
The finger? Feels more like the entire fist from this end.
A friend that owns a coin shop, had his wife send exactly $200 worth of scrap gold to 3 different 'cash for gold' concerns, to see what they would pay, and then the offer was rejected and the goods sent back. Here were the offers:
1) 23% of spot price
2) 32% of spot price
3) 17% of spot price
Now that I have a bit of experience, I'm beginning to think the squirrel mania is highly overrated. Starting last Spring I began hav-a-harting my local squirrels to parts elsewhere to keep them from stripping the bird feeders clean and devastating the garden.
I got only NINE over the course of the entire Summer. That's not a significant protein source as far as I can see.
Now pigeons - they're everywhere and thick as a rug out under the feeders.
I believe the most efficient squirrel recipe that takes advantage of the meager protein source is to simply stew it. While the squirrel is stewing, you hunt for bigger game. Squirrel is starving food, just above eating bark.
I'd guess that China and other countries that courted him, weren't interested in his charisma, but his knowledge, which is currently valued @ zero, but once commanded a high price, when he wasn't being held prisoner.
A measure of inquiries for new projects, however, rose to 59.1, its highest in two years -- "an encouraging sign," said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker.
That sounds like a solid indicator. A graphic of a big, steamy dog pile would be nice to have on here.....
Last night on CNBS Kudlow had a report that Coke profit was all foreign profit when they pulled of the total NA lost money especially with the drop in the dollar. The reality of an "L" is here. Kind of surprised they even show this being the cheerleader of BS.
My Apologies in advance, Had a medical procedure and will be groggy for a few days from pain killers.
Yeah, sales at big companies are way down. But what about sales at small businesses, the engine of job growth in our eCONomy? Well, let's check.
From the NFIB (small bus assoc):
Although third quarter real Gross Domestic Product growth will likely be
over three percent (a stunning improvement from the six percent shrinkage
in the first quarter, the surge has not shown up on Main Street as of yet.
Reported capital spending was at a survey-low level (started in 1973).
More firms plan more inventory reductions than plan to invest, and more
owners plan to trim their workforce than plan to increase employment.
Quarterly reports on sales reveal 41 percent experiencing declines
compared to 21 percent reporting quarterly gains. Quarterly profit trends
are the worse in survey history, with 50 percent reporting declines
compared to 14 percent reporting gains.
A few notes before I have to go and pretend like I care, a.k.a. "work":
1) agree very strongly with mp on manufactoring being the only productive endeavor to get us out of our current economic decline--that is having a well articululated manufactoring policy that is longterm and that is implemented consistently over a decade, at least.
2) I doubt that is where we are headed until all other vices, strange rituals, satanic oaths, blood rites are tried, and then when we've enjoyed 30% inflation, 18% unemployment, we'll re-tact the HMS America--but, that re-tact will take 10 years at least of steady progress toward making and exporting useful things.
3) It is unlikely that multiple adminisrations and multiple waves of congress/senate can sustain such a policy.
4) It is more likely that we'll muddle in the right direction eventually (see #2), but without a sustained effort, continue to decline, just decline less relative to instant puniary a la Weimar.
5) I noted a nice piece in the economist about MBA schools still going strong, and threw up in my mouth.
If you're going to rent [little] kids, make sure they're the underprivileged kind. They're really cheap and great workers. For five bucks a head and pizza, half a dozen of them will load a forty-yard dumpster in six hours. And the best part you'll hear nary a whimper of complaint. Your only managerial task will be breaking up the fight over who gets the shovels and who gets the brooms.
OK, free money for all those struggling folks earning less than 300k....
Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The $8,000 homebuyer tax-credit should be extended beyond next month’s expiration and expanded to more borrowers to buoy housing sales, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd said.
Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat, and Senator Johnny Isakson, a Georgia Republican and former Realtor, urged colleagues to extend the credit through next June and to expand it to all couples earning $300,000 or less.
A S -
I agree on the trouble that small businesses are having. My employer, a small retail chain, has seen sales recover slightly to where we are "up" over last year, when sales fell off a cliff, but are down from 2 years ago. We've also had to reduce hours, cut inventories and slash margins to get people in the door. With that being said, I'm pretty sure we're actually doing better than most of the competition.....
OK, free money for all those struggling folks earning less than 300k....
You obviously missed Bwaney Fwank's remarks; this isn't about helping home buyers. It's about supporting home prices. He stated in effect that this was the "policy"-
Well who needs the dollar, I buy my stuff with credit cards.
Ya I was a debit card freak up until 2 years ago, I realized that the Digital foot print thing is not a good thing. Call me paranoid. Cash and Cash only.
How long before the news reports on people who bought physical gold and found out it, and they, were fools?
NEWS TEAM 7
A nice, white, suburban couple. She has brown hair, a bleached teeth smile, and could lose about 10 lbs. He is while, balding, and used to work in IT. They have 2 kids under 10 years old and a beagle.
suit: What tipped you off?
wife: Well, after Bobby here, (Places hand on his thigh. Gives tight smile) was laid off from the county we were running short on cash so we took it to the "Gold" place.
suit: Yes?
wife: Sniffle. "They told us it was lead with gold paint!"
suit: And then what happened?
hubbie: We took it to three more places. They all said the same thing! I mean, I was in shock! It was heavy like gold and yellow! How could we have known!
Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat, and Senator Johnny Isakson, a Georgia Republican and former Realtor, urged colleagues to extend the credit through next June and to expand it to all couples earning $300,000 or less.
Dodd is a douche. This all turning into "taking each others' laundry."
Chris Dodd's father was a U.S. Senator. He left the Senate in disgrace after a scandal. It's only a matter of time until Chris follows in his father's footsteps.
Friends of freakin Angelo. Dodd is a shameless idiot.
How long before the news reports on people who bought physical gold and found out it, and they, were fools?
NEWS TEAM 7
A nice, white, suburban couple. She has brown hair, a bleached teeth smile, and could lose about 10 lbs. He is while, balding, and used to work in IT. They have to kids under 10 years old and a beagle.
suit: What tipped you off?
wife: Well, after Bobby here, (Places hand on his thigh. Gives tight smile) was laid off from the county we were running short on cash so we took it to the "Gold" place.
suit: Yes?
wife: Sniffle. "They told us it was lead with gold paint!"
suit: And then what happened?
hubbie: We took it to three more places. They all said the same thing! I mean, I was in shock! It was heavy like gold and yellow! How could we have known!
Where did they purchase it? " Dowe, Cheatem, and How " ?
"Raj Rajaratnam, the billionaire founder of Galleon Group charged last week by federal prosecutors with insider trading, told investors he will liquidate his hedge funds. Galleon, which managed about $3.7 billion, said it was exploring various alternatives for the business, according to a letter sent to investors today. New York-based Galleon has been approached by unidentified parties interested in buying the firm and an undetermined amount of its assets, according to a person familiar with the firm. "
It's amazing how naive or uninformed the media (Bloomberg here) can be.
Hedge funds are unique capitalist structures. They are organized as partnerships of LLCs. All of their assets are divided among partners or members. When the funds liquidate (e.g., give money back to investors) there are virtually no assets left.
There are people ("the team") that goes somewhere else and starts new fund(s). But hedge funds don't pay each other to buy and sell teams or people. There's a lot of flux in hedge fund people right now, mainly because so many funds are under water, and it's more profitable to close down and start up something new than to try to get back up to high water.
Well who needs the dollar, I buy my stuff with credit cards.
best comment in some time.
Lefty: how long have you been a bank holding company? I missed that.
On a side note, I am STILL a willing counterparty to all of Lehman's trades (I think I'm the last one left).
since you're now a BHC, you interested in a CDS or a hoopajoop on my Lehman trades?
the contract can be in credit cards. that goes without saying.
but we only accept those credit cards that are tied to housing equity.
From our good friends at Wells Fargo..... This is good news???
Assets no longer collecting interest climbed 28 percent to $23.5 billion as of Sept. 30 from the second quarter, the company said. The cost of loans written off as uncollectible jumped about 17 percent from the second quarter to $5.1 billion, the company said.
I like collecting postcards. Yeah, I know. I bought in Europe from pretty much the same group of sellers. For a number of years I would mail cash in dollars. About 2 or 3 years ago they quit taking it in cash unless I paid a little extra. Then they started refusing dollars.
but we dont want to buy a house, we have a house besides if we did we would have to put the wheels back on and take them off of the new house. way to much trouble.
You can add Bob Sinche to economists predicting that they will let the FTHB tax credit expire. He says it has had whatever effect it was going to have and extending it would not be worth the cost (political cost that is).
Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Wells Fargo & Co., the nation’s largest home lender, posted a record third-quarter profit by limiting loan defaults and wringing savings out of Wachovia Corp.
Profit almost doubled to $3.24 billion, or 56 cents a diluted share, from $1.64 billion, or 49 cents, a year earlier, San Francisco-based Wells Fargo said today in a statement. The average estimate of 24 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was 39 cents a share.
Forex markets are exciting this morning. All of the "Canadian $ suffering due Bank of Canada smack-talk" headlines written last night are already obsolete.
Pershing buys 9.5% of Corrections Corporation of America
“We’re in with two feet,” Ackman said today at the Value Investing Congress in New York. “You’ve got a real estate company, in our opinion, with the government as a tenant. We think this is a business that has very significant growth. It’s going to do well in any economic environment, as long as people commit crimes and as long as we punish them.”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Does any other country think of it's penal system as an investment vehicle?
tncubsfan
explain yourself,i understand oil going up but im not sure about crude (Not enough) and im certainly not sure about gas draw down(used more?)
But the most brilliant propagandist technique will yield no success unless one fundamental principle is borne in mind constantly and with unflagging attention. It must confine itself to a few points and repeat them over and over. Here, as so often in this world, persistence is the first and most important requirement for success. From Mein Kampf -- AH
The American Petroleum Institute said crude stocks rose 3.8 million barrels, more than the forecast. Traders will be looking to Energy Information Administration figures at 1430 GMT (2:30 p.m. EDT) for confirmation.
How convenient, "investors" are "bullish" only to the point where the prior days losses are erased...A $20T financial mechanism, with millions of global participants that operates with such coordination...
Predicably pour in at the open to immediately erase the losses, then stop "buying" just as the prior days losses are eliminated. Now it will remain "range-bound," spiking higher with every attempt to move lower.
The legalized fraud continues unchecked as the Ponzi scheme continues to entertain the world...
Henry Hill: You're a pistol, you're really funny. You're really funny.
Tommy DeVito: What do you mean I'm funny?
Henry Hill: It's funny, you know. It's a good story, it's funny, you're a funny guy.
[laughs]
Tommy DeVito: what do you mean, you mean the way I talk? What?
Henry Hill: It's just, you know. You're just funny, it's... funny, the way you tell the story and everything.
Tommy DeVito: [it becomes quiet] Funny how? What's funny about it?
GabyJan
tncubsfan
explain yourself,i understand oil going up but im not sure about crude (Not enough) and im certainly not sure about gas draw down(used more?)
Estimates were for a crude oil build of 3.8 million barrels and a draw of about 2 million barrels of refined gasoline. The EIA report today showed less of a crude build-up than expected and more of a gasoline draw, this market will likely see this as very bullish and push the price up.
In my opinion, outside of bizzaro world, a crude build should be seen as somewhat bearish, but the powers that be will mainly look at the gas draw as
Noob - What is Natgas doing? Am I missing something?
That is what the historical relationship suggests, and the ever more full liquid storage capacity...but with unlimited (until it is not) credit hosing down the markets it is not clear, particularly with the ahistoric levels of difference between the natural gas prices and oil prices which may reflect a reordering of their price relationship due to the excessive financialization of the oil futures market...but storage levels sure aren't telling the bullish price story that we see in the futures markets.
One thing that modern armies can't go to war without, is a substantial supply of oil.
Is it possible that the brobdingnagians of Wall*Street that are sitting on vast quantities of go-juice all over the ocean, are just a proxy for Big Gov?
what happens when the rest of the world gets bored instead of entertained?
Great idea keeping interest rates near zero so our major banks could make a fortune. The little issue about the dollar - well, we will worry about that in the next crash.
Noob - What is Natgas doing? Am I missing something?
It's climbing to ever higher and higher levels even as people can't figure out where to store it because demand is so low. Full storage plus weak demand usually means falling prices. But in this environment...apparently not.
This is like the six or seventh time those two have crossed in the last couple of years.
Odd factoid. The YTD Return for GLD (the Gold ETF) and SPY are roughly the same: 20%. From the March lows, 45-50%.
Another odd factoid. The CBOE Gold Index (^GOX) is up ~55% YTD.
For some reason, I find the valuations of GLD & SPY odd because it is still just paper and arguably no productive (revenue earning) assets in either of them. Will these two paper funds be able to continue mirroring each other?
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Will the time when ^GOX and GLD aren't moving in tandem be a sign of Paper Troubles (tm)?
For some reason, I find the valuations of GLD & SPY odd because it is still just paper and arguably no productive (revenue earning) assets in either of them.
Noob - I do believe natgas is over-priced based on the inventory levels we are seeing. I think the futures market is indeed looking at the surge in crude oil prices and natgas is an area where TPTB have room to run up the prices and make a killing. The fact that industrial utilization is in the crapper and storage is near full capacity doesn't seem to matter. The forward looking contracts are even more bullish with prices getting into the mid 6's. I'm sure TPTB see an avenue to get natgas up in the 9 - 11 range by mid winter. Articles and media reports of a "much colder than usual" winter on the east coast will fuel this run-up even more. Just some of my thoughts.
heh that is THE question - can it - we will never know - will it? nope...because the investments needed to sustain or in the dream case, increase global production simply are not occurring a this time...and when they do occur, the existing base production will have declined further so the hole to backfill before production can increase will be that much larger...others may disagree with that perspective, however...
That is what the historical relationship suggests, and the ever more full liquid storage capacity...but with unlimited (until it is not) credit hosing down the markets it is not clear, particularly with the ahistoric levels of difference between the natural gas prices and oil prices which may reflect a reordering of their price relationship due to the excessive financialization of the oil futures market...but storage levels sure aren't telling the bullish price story that we see in the futures markets.
I think I understand and agree with you; the 'financialization' of the oil futures market reflects my concerns with similar actions with other non-oil futures markets, like the soft commodities, where the strong connection between spot and futures markets starts breaking down.
(I knew I should've reviewed my comment before posting. Need coffee.)
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But Gold has some value. If you dissolve the underlying organization/corporation supporting GLD or SPY, you have toilet paper. Bankruptcy of those organizations can wipe you out. Having Gold or paper redeemable for Gold, you have the liability removed sans the revenue earning asset aspect.
I'm curious to see what the EIA natgas inventory report shows tomorrow? I'm guessing another build but a mauch smaller build than in previous weeks. It's been much colder in the south and east over the last week or so, maybe an increase in natgas usage. The market will react to the report bullishly because the storage build was less than in past weeks. That's what will be thrown out there to drive the long positions.
I was going to rag on 30yr fixed rate mortgages in America, because they are so much cheaper than in Canada (max term is 10yr, 80% LTV without mortgage insurance)
Then I did a brief, but frustrating, survey of other countries. UK, Germany, Spain, Japan, Australia... Sure they might individually have a max LTV or 30yr max term, but there are very low rates (puzzling for the EU, undercutting US mortgage rates), interest only, special rates for first time buyers ... Australia is just like California at bubble peak with all mortgages available like 106% LTV interest-only no documented income pick a payment
We human beans are capable of producing about 1/20th the energy that oil can do for us, so it's isn't all that surprising that the world's population is about 10x what it was before we got go-juice to do the work for us.
Somehow we lived without oil for around 40,000 years, and we'll be there again after a couple hundred years of living la vida crude...
Shill -
Everything is going to take off! The dollar is down, oil is about to hit $80 again, natgas is up, it should be a feeding frenzy today! The scam continues....
My shoeshine boy and I were talking this morning, and the little rascal told me I should be investing in gold, bless his little heart. I tipped him a tuppence, brushed off my straw hat, and went on my way.
My shoeshine boy and I were talking this morning, and the little rascal told me I should be investing in gold, bless his little heart. I tipped him a tuppence, brushed off my straw hat, and went on my way.
Not sure what it means, really.
It means buy more Silver...big returns coming in that market....get some while it is still on the cheap.
If you dissolve the underlying organization/corporation supporting GLD or SPY, you have toilet paper.
Have you actually read the SPY prospectus, annual report or statement of additional information prior to making this claim?
again, no per EIA current statistics - need to click on the "1.4" link on the bottom row under monthly - it will download a spreadsheet that gives you best estimate as of July, 2009 which is at a 7 month average rate of 83.7 MMBOD and and running ~2% behind last year. EIA - International Energy Data and Analysis
edit: BP is actual oil production, the EIA numbers include lease condensate, natural gas liquids, kicthen sink etc.
Alright....I'm about to sell my energy and commodity shorts, take my medicine, and go long? Maybe 2x gold? I think it's in the cards that a commodity bubble will continue to form, maybe I should stop thinking logically and jump on the bandwagon....Any thoughts?
The crazy thing about #79, is the neo-Goebbels have been advertising it heavily to their evangelically-minded audience for years, so on the face of it, anything that Sean, Rush or Glenn does seems tied into the idea that everything they say is ridiculous (99% of it is) and unfortunately, it's easy to smear it on the basis that they are cranks, but rarely is somebody completely wrong about everything, and this is the 1%, in which they got it right.
What happens when the only sizable group with any political cohesion also is the only people with real money?
I suspect we haven't seen the last of the the righty-tighty-gawdalmightys, politically.
Commodity exchanges and traders know that the disconnect between spot and futures markets is essential to a certain types of profitable trading. If commodity futures prices settled in cash, many of the trader's edges would disappear. Exchange profits would suffer too, in my estimation. (Index and currency futures already settle in cash and are an exception.)
Last week, Southwest states unequivocally that the worst was not behind them. Since they are the only consistently profitable airline, I'll take their analysis before any BS happy talk from failed companies like UAL and Continental. I still believe that the airlines will be the next industry bailed out, especially now that oil is screaming back towards 100.
(Re. CRE Re-Investment)..........I didn't realize Ray Nagin was STILL mayor of New Orleans......I thought he was ridden out of town on a blind horse.......maybe there IS hope for Jerry Brown again as Governor - California has as high a percentage of "that type of voter", correct?
Has anybody ever had just 1 grain of physical gold delivered to them from an ETF, in exchange for their money?
Not likely for several reasons. Once the gold is out of the vault it would have to be assayed to be put back in. Then you have storage costs - unless you're comfortable putting it under your bed. Feel free though. SPY can be redeemed in 50,000 share blocks for the stock basket. I don't know offhand what GLD creation/redemption baskets are but let's say they are the same. At today's GLD price of $103 you would need to be prepared to take delivery of a little over $5 million worth of gold. Not sure how much that would weigh but its more than I could probably carry lol.
I do know of people who have created/redeemed SPY shares - My response to yagij was with respect to SPY but since GLD is structured similarly I guess my reply is applicable to both.
ETN's are a different story - you bear the credit risk of the issuer. Look at what happened to the prices of Lehmans structured notes.
Have you actually read the SPY prospectus, annual report or statement of additional information prior to making this claim?
What part are you referring? That they will liquidate the fund if the Trust's NAV is below 350 million? The Fund will terminate by January 22, 2118 or the date 20 years after the death of the last survivor of eleven persons named in the Trust Agreement? What if they stop secondary trading markets? Then what?
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Paulson violated IRS Tax Code by decree, and you think we plebes are protected by some paper stating "Trust us"?
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Edit: I think we are coming from two separate PoVs in regards to the issue. You are coming from the past experience that the system works and will continue to work. I'm coming from the position that the Trust can be frozen through a variety of players, and as a holder of SPY, you can be left high and dry regardless of what the Prospectus states.
How long before the news reports on people who bought physical gold and found out it, and they, were fools?
That's why you should avoid ingots and stick with antiques with a known provenance.
Mine is in the shape of a falcon, sold to me by a very reputable fat man from Istanbul. I would recommend, however, security -- strange people have been loitering around my apartment ever since I purchased it -- so keep the number of people who know you have it at a strict minimum. I disguised mine with black enamel paint for a final layer of protection -- no-one would ever know its true value! Ha ha!
Paulson violated IRS Tax Code by decree, and you think we plebes are protected by some paper stating "Trust us
In that case you should be avoiding all stock transactions since shares are held in book entry form - unless you ask for certificates for every share you buy. There's and then there's - if we see that kind of breakdown it's Mad Max and you won't care if your stock is book entry or certificate form - unless you need TP.
Do Krugerrands, Maple Leafs or Eagles need to be assayed every time they change hands?
In the '80s, the answer for Krugerrands was no, and hence, they sold at a premium over bullion. I would assume that's true for the rest, but I don't know for sure-
you won't care if your stock is book entry or certificate form - unless you need TP.
As it turns out, you can wet the paper, roll bundles tightly together, and use them for firewood once they've dried. Might be a useful tip if you live in the city. It also produces less acid rain than doing the same with newsprint, FWIW-
In that case you should be avoiding all stock transactions since shares are held in book entry form - unless you ask for certificates for every share you buy.
I'm living in a time where the USG deficit has grown north of 1.4 trillion USD. The Fed is printing billions of USD per week. UE is hitting 30 year highs and climbing. I'm reminded that 90% of stock certificates owned in 1929 were worthless by 1939. Yes, I don't have faith in this current arrangement, and I only transfer weakening USD for paper shares (certificates preferred) to hedge against currency devaluation/inflation.
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I don't have faith that the SPY mechanism will last considering how badly it is used/abused by TBTF on Wall^Street. I do understand what the law is suppose to be, but I don't think it will play out that smoothly.
What is the current gold contract symbol and month? Is it december's contract? My yahoo tracking hasn't moved or updated the price since yesterday. Is it now gcz09.cmx?
OT2: Rob Dawg, I emailed you some stuff on La Loma, not sure if you got it.
I didn't pay attention because it was from: TEST ACCOUNT
I see it now, thanks. I think they have two water shares, That adds a lot of value IMO.
I'll be more careful in the future about using names. Sorry.
If Cali elects Jerry Brown then that show how reality disconnected the trolls are. As AG he didn't go after Country wide because his sister was on the board of directors! I ma sure old Mozillo will donate to Jerry's campaign fund quite nicely.
Do Krugerrands, Maple Leafs or Eagles need to be assayed every time they change hands?
Depends on time and place. At coin shows or shops. I have never had someone question the authenticity of my sovereign coins: silver or gold. However if we find ourselves using them in daily transactions with unknown people, I would say that you would have to be a fool not too. Fortunately for Gold, it is an expensive and risky operation to forge sovereigns. For Silver, the problem is getting the weight, density, and look right vs. sovereigns.
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Unfortunately, you will need scales to ensure people aren't shaving their coins.
Forex markets are exciting this morning. All of the "Canadian $ suffering due Bank of Canada smack-talk" headlines written last night are already obsolete.
Okay, after looking around it seems the CAD is one of the few making really dramatic moves today. Anyone else noticing their favourite forex pairs making strong moves? CAD has moved about a cent and a half in the past few hours and doesn't show any sign of slowing down. But this is against most other currencies, as opposed to just the USD or EUR, like normal.
Anybody watch 'warning' last night? I did. That trio of Rubin, Greenspan and Summers were one harmful clique. In the video, the power play and the meanness were palpable. Summers, Geithner and BB are still at it in this WH. If Sheila quits, then it is 'warning' all over again.
I suspect in the future being discovered in possession of a 'Vard class ring will carry the same social stigma as do klan robes.
I took a class in modern history and the prof was in the state dept in WWII - was a low level staffer at Yalta. He said there was a rumor floating about of the following exchange...
In a quiet moment between negotiations the big three were chatting and FDR pulled out his cigarette case for a smoke... it was engraved and so Churchill commented - 'who gave that to you?'... it was his classmates at Harvard. The engraving was to 'Dear Franklin'... Churchill had a similar bobble [cigar case or flask or something] - also engraved and citing his name... from one of his polo teams or social club... 'Dear Winston'...
Uncle Joe - not to be out done - pulled out his cigarette case... engraved to a 'Count So-and-So' a prominent official close to the Czar in St Petersburg prior to the December Revolution... he didn't venture to explain the connection or how it 'fell into his hands'. Didn't have to.
I think I'll go do something really dangerous to my health for lunch, like jump a skateboard across three busses while smoking a cigarette, all because I don't have to pay a penny for any healthcare-related costs.
I'm embarrassed by a lot of the ignorant talk on this board about GLD and SLV, the PM ETFs.
Here's what you mainly need to know: These ETFs are the most efficient way for most people to accumulate or sell off small amonts of gold or silver. There is bullion held in a vault that matches the value of assets in the ETF trust, that is the NAV. So, these ETFs really are the equivalent of a gold-backed currency. They trade spot-on every day at the London fixing prices of bullion, less their accumulated expenses, which are pretty reasonable and much less than you pay for coin or bullion brokerage, storage, etc.
You can buy and sell, as much as you want, at any time of the day for the brokerage charge. The spread between bid and ask is almost always a penny per share. Each share is worth one ounce of silver (SLV) or one-tenth ounce of gold (GLD). So, you can buy ten shares of GLD (one ounce of gold) in the morning at $1,050 and if bullion goes up $10, you can sell those ten shares in the afternoon for $1,060 less 10 cents. It doesn't get more liquid or efficient than that.
A lot of the GLD and SLV conspiracy theorists are just envious, because they still don't own any gold or silver. If they do own bullion or coins, they know they'll take a hit of 2-3% when they decide to sell. There's nothing wrong with bullion or coins for large amounts or buy-and-hold.
I think I'll go do something really dangerous to my health, like jump a skateboard across three busses while smoking a cigarette, all because I don't have to pay a penny for any health-related costs.
I think I'll go do something really dangerous to my health for lunch, like jump a skateboard across three busses while smoking a cigarette, all because I don't have to pay a penny for any healthcare-related costs.
Finally, a rational explanation of the popularity of hockey.
Actually, I'm thinking of taking a holiday in Florida for the winter, simply because many vacation/tourist destinations haven't figured out that the dollar is at par yet. So we get a relatively cheap vacation, plus a pile of 'Canadian-only' incentives designed for our previously weaker currency.
At least that's how it's worked for a few friends of mine, but I'm sure these loopholes are rapidly closing.
I think I'll go do something really dangerous to my health for lunch, like jump a skateboard across three busses while smoking a cigarette, all because I don't have to pay a penny for any healthcare-related costs.
And the state will pay for your support as a quad for the next 60 years. Wotta bargain!
Compare the size of a 1 troy ounce pure silver eagle coin and a 1 troy ounce pure gold buffalo coin. You'll notice that the silver coin is nearly twice as big in size, because gold is a very dense metal, specific gravity and all, etc.
I've never seen a fake Maple Leaf, Krugerrand, Eagle, or any other modern struck gold coin that was counterfeit, not one.
How long before we see signs like this in stores; "Avoid conversion fees. CAD accepted at par."
In Northern Vermont, they've had those signs for quite awhile.
Finally, a rational explanation of the popularity of hockey.
There's no rational explanation for the popularity of hockey.
The only reason it's played is because once in a while it's fulfilling to beat the living crap out of your friends. I have no idea why we watch professionals play it live or on TV.
Come on, give the peasants a break, most went to skool in Merica. Remember those ads where "they" were selling a hunk of steel as the "Amazing meat defroster" that allowed one to defrost meat in an "amazing" amount of time. I think the hunk of steel was about 20 bucks, and that was when 20 bucks meant something.
How long before we see signs like this in stores; "Avoid conversion fees. CAD accepted at par."
Near the border? You won't need signs - the word on the street of the 'official' [black market] exchange rate moves as fast as a Bloomie terminal. Seriously - especially places like Ft. Francis/Int'l Falls where people work both sides of the border and 'intermarriage' is rampant. Hard to find someone up there without family on both sides.
Those folks are pretty much indifferent to Washington & Ottawa alike [or even St. Paul or Toronto]... mountain high, emperor far away.
Farther away from the border? Sure a sign might help those not in the know.
How long before we see signs like this in stores; "Avoid conversion fees. CAD accepted at par."
Used to see the "USD accepted 1:1" signs all the time in the Caribbean protectorates using the Euro - St. Lucia, Aruba, etc. Started seeing them pop up in the summer of '03, when the Euro crossed over $1.10. They remained prevalent for years, and I was surprised to still see a lot of them up on our last trip to St. Lucia, in early '07, given that the Euro was ticking up near $1.35.
You don't see those signs up any more.
Though, given another couple of years at this pace, I guess we could expect "USD accepted 1:2" signs to start popping up. Woo-hoo!
I'm embarrassed by a lot of the ignorant talk on this board about GLD and SLV, the PM ETFs.
There's a lot of trust involved in financial instruments like these. Unfortunately trust in the financial system is what's been destroyed by the developments of the past two years; and it continues to be destroyed.
Like so many other instruments, the ETFs will be fine until something stresses them. Then we find out if the promises they're based on are real or not. I don't blame people for steering clear of a proposition like that.
I will send a copy of this to my wife the architect. She has nothing else to do today. Might as well read this.*
I was just talking about this index this morning at a jobsite meeting. I asked the contractor is he was looking at site-framed or panelized (an affordable housing project). He said he did not know of any large panelizer still in business in the state of Minnesota. We talked about work levels in architectural offices as a look-ahead... not pretty. I know one formerly very large firm where a few guys still go in from 8:00 to 1:00 four days a week... and of firms that have laid off 2/3 of all employees. I know of no firm looking at 2010 as a better year than 2009.
Holy rapid pigtastic post, CR!
Pigs are running fast this morning,
Vhere is the "V"? I vas promised a "V"!
I'll slow down ...
best to all
morning
got ads gold and path to my new home.
RD,
Didn't you see the left hand of the government and the right hand of the government extend both middle fingers and cross them like so...and you get your V. Better?
And good morning.
Rob, No "V" for you!
best wishes
"Some larger stimulus-funded building activity should be coming online over the next several months, partially offsetting the steep decline in private commercial construction," Baker said.
Main Street is broke, so the Gov spends. But it is all our money to repay in the end.
JP said on a few threads ago in regard to Martin Armstrong...
[JD: The more I read of that Huygen's article, the more out-to-lunch the author appeared. If that article is representative, then the author qualifies as a crank.]
JP,
I know nothing about waves & cycles and don't really figure them into my analysis, which tends to lean heavily on the historical.
Martin's story is amazing. He was jailed on contempt of court charges for 7 years, and then was sentenced to 5 years, but no credit for time served. This was a man whose views were courted all over the world by the high & mighty.
The repayment is in doubt? I was told we're gonna be repaid!
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Got 2 gold ads. I hear gold ads on the radio, on right and left leaning talk stations, even on classic rock stations.
gold, gold gold.
CR:
your blog, your rules. I don't mind. I'm happy you post at all.
on a side note, if there are two posts you want up back to back, perhaps join them into one?
The decreased architectural billing could be combined with decreased mortgage originations (IMO)
the discussion of the two can dovetail pretty well.
heck, we manage to combine discussions of Fed Lending Facilities with squirrel recipes!
,rad Slippery,
Can you think of any other item of value currently, in which the hoi ploy can sell immediately for cash, as in total liquidity?
I can't.
/can sell immediately for cash/
JD,
Do I have to mention squirrels?
Don't have squirls where I live, have to settle for squab.
blackhat
you know that there might be squirrels reading this or even posting!
CalculatedRisk wrote on Wed, 10/21/2009 - 6:22 am:
Fearless prediction for Feb 2010:
"Where is the "W"? I was pwomised a "W"!
blackhat wrote:
The finger? Feels more like the entire fist from this end.
.........in which the hoi ploy can sell.........
....again, excuse my ignorance........what is "hoi ploy"?
RD,
I believe your only consolation will be finding a class ring...
p.s.
A friend that owns a coin shop, had his wife send exactly $200 worth of scrap gold to 3 different 'cash for gold' concerns, to see what they would pay, and then the offer was rejected and the goods sent back. Here were the offers:
1) 23% of spot price
2) 32% of spot price
3) 17% of spot price
have a question
if banks to small to fail get a rescue will it be called a "sheet" they are too small for a great big tarp.
Now that I have a bit of experience, I'm beginning to think the squirrel mania is highly overrated. Starting last Spring I began hav-a-harting my local squirrels to parts elsewhere to keep them from stripping the bird feeders clean and devastating the garden.
I got only NINE over the course of the entire Summer. That's not a significant protein source as far as I can see.
Now pigeons - they're everywhere and thick as a rug out under the feeders.
"hoi polloi"
Greek for the great unwashed.
Over the past 12 months, sales at S&P 500 companies have declined $1,520,000,000,000.
Get used to the word trillion.
The booboise, the rabble, etc.
A S -
1.52 Trillion less in sales! Just remember, sales and revenue don't matter anymore.....just slash and burn earned "profits"
blackhat wrote:
I suspect in the future being discovered in possession of a 'Vard class ring will carry the same social stigma as do klan robes.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Their children, especially if they are unlikely to head to college.
Bosch,
I believe the most efficient squirrel recipe that takes advantage of the meager protein source is to simply stew it. While the squirrel is stewing, you hunt for bigger game. Squirrel is starving food, just above eating bark.
RD,
+10
I'm seeing a double U recovery, as in double-dip
UU
Here comes the Dollar down spike, followed by the gold and Silver spikes....yup wash, rinse, repeat.
we have doves out in the boonie,pigeons are for townies
jd
i raise you double to a triple
UUU
We have doves in the back yard, have to go to the mall for pigeons.
I will send a copy of this to my wife the architect. She has nothing else to do today. Might as well read this.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Pwomised by who? Bwaney Fwank?
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
There is no exclusion between being charismatic and being a crank. Some folks have made entire careers out of the combination.
(Now if only I could figure out how to be charismatic...)
Black Star Ranch wrote:
He's the Vietnamese guy in accounting-
Pwomised by who? Bwaney Fwank?
Yeah, yeah. He's gay. Get over it.
Jake: [fakes accent] How much for the little girl? How much for the women?
Father: What?
Jake: Your women. I want to buy your women. The little girl, your daughters... sell them to me. Sell me your children.
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
Not when you're accustomed to a 14oz steak; when you haven't eaten for a week, you'll be more appreciative-
jd
i'll sell you my children only if you understand that i have a no Return policy.
gabyjan wrote:
ROFL- I'll throw in mine as well; at least the older one anyway
JP,
I'd guess that China and other countries that courted him, weren't interested in his charisma, but his knowledge, which is currently valued @ zero, but once commanded a high price, when he wasn't being held prisoner.
Children are like stocks. Best rented for a week or two.
We had my nine year old nephew visit this past summer. Fun, but we were glad he was a rental.
cinco-x
the only problem is that you cant sell someone else's kids.
markets up, dollar mostly down, commodities clawing their way back up.......seems very familiar ...La La La La
gabyjan wrote:
Who said anything about selling?
I like the rental idea,...
I went on a 30 mile backpack with a 30 month old this summer, and his parents tagged along.
I love this one:
A measure of inquiries for new projects, however, rose to 59.1, its highest in two years -- "an encouraging sign," said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker.
That sounds like a solid indicator. A graphic of a big, steamy dog pile would be nice to have on here.....
cant you rent out someone else's kids?
edited for can instead of cant
Last night on CNBS Kudlow had a report that Coke profit was all foreign profit when they pulled of the total NA lost money especially with the drop in the dollar. The reality of an "L" is here. Kind of surprised they even show this being the cheerleader of BS.
My Apologies in advance, Had a medical procedure and will be groggy for a few days from pain killers.
tncubsfan,
Yeah, sales at big companies are way down. But what about sales at small businesses, the engine of job growth in our eCONomy? Well, let's check.
From the NFIB (small bus assoc):
Although third quarter real Gross Domestic Product growth will likely be
over three percent (a stunning improvement from the six percent shrinkage
in the first quarter, the surge has not shown up on Main Street as of yet.
Reported capital spending was at a survey-low level (started in 1973).
More firms plan more inventory reductions than plan to invest, and more
owners plan to trim their workforce than plan to increase employment.
Quarterly reports on sales reveal 41 percent experiencing declines
compared to 21 percent reporting quarterly gains. Quarterly profit trends
are the worse in survey history, with 50 percent reporting declines
compared to 14 percent reporting gains.
So far, the "surge" is not working.
We may get a New low on the dollar.
A few notes before I have to go and pretend like I care, a.k.a. "work":
1) agree very strongly with mp on manufactoring being the only productive endeavor to get us out of our current economic decline--that is having a well articululated manufactoring policy that is longterm and that is implemented consistently over a decade, at least.
2) I doubt that is where we are headed until all other vices, strange rituals, satanic oaths, blood rites are tried, and then when we've enjoyed 30% inflation, 18% unemployment, we'll re-tact the HMS America--but, that re-tact will take 10 years at least of steady progress toward making and exporting useful things.
3) It is unlikely that multiple adminisrations and multiple waves of congress/senate can sustain such a policy.
4) It is more likely that we'll muddle in the right direction eventually (see #2), but without a sustained effort, continue to decline, just decline less relative to instant puniary a la Weimar.
5) I noted a nice piece in the economist about MBA schools still going strong, and threw up in my mouth.
Have a great morning all.
Angry Saver wrote:
Zimbabwe or aren't we?
Well who needs the dollar, I buy my stuff with credit cards.
If you're going to rent [little] kids, make sure they're the underprivileged kind. They're really cheap and great workers. For five bucks a head and pizza, half a dozen of them will load a forty-yard dumpster in six hours. And the best part you'll hear nary a whimper of complaint. Your only managerial task will be breaking up the fight over who gets the shovels and who gets the brooms.
OK, free money for all those struggling folks earning less than 300k....
Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The $8,000 homebuyer tax-credit should be extended beyond next month’s expiration and expanded to more borrowers to buoy housing sales, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd said.
Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat, and Senator Johnny Isakson, a Georgia Republican and former Realtor, urged colleagues to extend the credit through next June and to expand it to all couples earning $300,000 or less.
A S -
I agree on the trouble that small businesses are having. My employer, a small retail chain, has seen sales recover slightly to where we are "up" over last year, when sales fell off a cliff, but are down from 2 years ago. We've also had to reduce hours, cut inventories and slash margins to get people in the door. With that being said, I'm pretty sure we're actually doing better than most of the competition.....
fried wrote:
You obviously missed Bwaney Fwank's remarks; this isn't about helping home buyers. It's about supporting home prices. He stated in effect that this was the "policy"-
Ya I was a debit card freak up until 2 years ago, I realized that the Digital foot print thing is not a good thing. Call me paranoid. Cash and Cash only.
How long before the news reports on people who bought physical gold and found out it, and they, were fools?
NEWS TEAM 7
A nice, white, suburban couple. She has brown hair, a bleached teeth smile, and could lose about 10 lbs. He is while, balding, and used to work in IT. They have 2 kids under 10 years old and a beagle.
suit: What tipped you off?
wife: Well, after Bobby here, (Places hand on his thigh. Gives tight smile) was laid off from the county we were running short on cash so we took it to the "Gold" place.
suit: Yes?
wife: Sniffle. "They told us it was lead with gold paint!"
suit: And then what happened?
hubbie: We took it to three more places. They all said the same thing! I mean, I was in shock! It was heavy like gold and yellow! How could we have known!
Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat, and Senator Johnny Isakson, a Georgia Republican and former Realtor, urged colleagues to extend the credit through next June and to expand it to all couples earning $300,000 or less.
Dodd is a douche. This all turning into "taking each others' laundry."
...unless we could export the houses.
and we have $1.50 euro
Chris Dodd's father was a U.S. Senator. He left the Senate in disgrace after a scandal. It's only a matter of time until Chris follows in his father's footsteps.
Friends of freakin Angelo. Dodd is a shameless idiot.
Where did they purchase it? " Dowe, Cheatem, and How " ?
Over the past 12 months, sales at S&P 500 companies have declined $1,520,000,000,000.
ah, now that explains the runup in the S&P.
It's amazing how naive or uninformed the media (Bloomberg here) can be.
Hedge funds are unique capitalist structures. They are organized as partnerships of LLCs. All of their assets are divided among partners or members. When the funds liquidate (e.g., give money back to investors) there are virtually no assets left.
There are people ("the team") that goes somewhere else and starts new fund(s). But hedge funds don't pay each other to buy and sell teams or people. There's a lot of flux in hedge fund people right now, mainly because so many funds are under water, and it's more profitable to close down and start up something new than to try to get back up to high water.
Anybody handing out ballcaps with THAT on it?
and we have $1.50 euro
Nice. From parity to 1/2 off in what? 8 years?
It was heavy like gold and yellow! How could we have known!
Damn! I'm gonna be rich! I have 800# of the heavy stuff I had no more use for until this morning. Now all I need is some yellow paint.
My ad says "Own Gold for $329.00/oz."
But while supplies last, you can get in on my special offer... ONLY $99.00 a pound !
The new ballcaps say:
Financial Underwater Crony Kapitalism Endangering Resources Substantially
and we have $1.50 euro
Well who needs the dollar, I buy my stuff with credit cards.
best comment in some time.
Lefty: how long have you been a bank holding company? I missed that.
On a side note, I am STILL a willing counterparty to all of Lehman's trades (I think I'm the last one left).
since you're now a BHC, you interested in a CDS or a hoopajoop on my Lehman trades?
the contract can be in credit cards. that goes without saying.
but we only accept those credit cards that are tied to housing equity.
From parity to 1/2 off in what? 8 years?
20% since march.
nova it's still got a dime to go before breaking new ground, so to speak. Said ground being the bottom of a ravine.
I'll take 3!!!
These stupid people deserve it. That is why one should only purchase Assayed 
From our good friends at Wells Fargo..... This is good news???
Assets no longer collecting interest climbed 28 percent to $23.5 billion as of Sept. 30 from the second quarter, the company said. The cost of loans written off as uncollectible jumped about 17 percent from the second quarter to $5.1 billion, the company said.
I like collecting postcards. Yeah, I know. I bought in Europe from pretty much the same group of sellers. For a number of years I would mail cash in dollars. About 2 or 3 years ago they quit taking it in cash unless I paid a little extra. Then they started refusing dollars.
shill, if you are buying 3, ask for a discount. At least free shipping.
I can haz 1,100 SPX?
In ur printin pres, debasin ur dollerz!
market is awful resilient this morning
but we dont want to buy a house, we have a house besides if we did we would have to put the wheels back on and take them off of the new house. way to much trouble.
state unemployment numbers out from the BLS... no surprises.
Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary
74.9 something today, perhaps?
anonymous b
why not the old robber barons bought and brought back rooms/houses. just number every piece put in containers
done deal
While supplies last, and in view of the immediate appeal, the Bulk Special is 12 pounds for only $999.00!
Be sure to include the code for your Free Shipping!
Code: DUMASS
Hurry Now! The phones are ringing off the hook, and the server temporarily crash due to demand.
Basel,
Might have been surprising for jobseekers in NY. September was pretty ugly for them for some reason.
CR, the chart shows shaded area ended 3rd qtr, does that mean green shoots party time Obama saved us all recession is over?
CR,
You can add Bob Sinche to economists predicting that they will let the FTHB tax credit expire. He says it has had whatever effect it was going to have and extending it would not be worth the cost (political cost that is).
Podcast posted here...
Bloomberg.com:
Bloomberg Podcasts
Century 21 seemed forward looking once upon a time, but they are so last century now.
Wells Fargo claims to have record earnings:
Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Wells Fargo & Co., the nation’s largest home lender, posted a record third-quarter profit by limiting loan defaults and wringing savings out of Wachovia Corp.
Profit almost doubled to $3.24 billion, or 56 cents a diluted share, from $1.64 billion, or 49 cents, a year earlier, San Francisco-based Wells Fargo said today in a statement. The average estimate of 24 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was 39 cents a share.
Wells Fargo Posts Record Third-Quarter Net Income, Stock Falls - Bloomberg.com
We have known for a while the dollar was going to tank.
What we do not know for sure (but will know in time) what are the long term effects.
I believe once the pitfalls of the "dollar tanking policy" are understood, we will test that 600 level on the S&P
In the meantime buy any basket index that deals in commodities.
Bove says Housing Market Has Bottomed.
Yay!
Forex markets are exciting this morning. All of the "Canadian $ suffering due Bank of Canada smack-talk" headlines written last night are already obsolete.
No one believes blustery Canadians.
Almost no private construction happened in the 1930's, and they didn't have 18 million empty homes to contend with, either.
s&p is 1096.97
gold is 1056..00
months ago there was something about the sp500 and gold doing something
what is it?
Pershing buys 9.5% of Corrections Corporation of America
“We’re in with two feet,” Ackman said today at the Value Investing Congress in New York. “You’ve got a real estate company, in our opinion, with the government as a tenant. We think this is a business that has very significant growth. It’s going to do well in any economic environment, as long as people commit crimes and as long as we punish them.”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Does any other country think of it's penal system as an investment vehicle?
Oil is going to shoot through the roof now! EIA shows less than expected crude build and more gas draw down than estimated. To The Moon!
gabyjan wrote:
This is like the six or seventh time those two have crossed in the last couple of years. Now, the DOW and
, that's a different story...
tncubsfan wrote:
This is bizarro world. It'll crash to $30. Just look at Natgas.
tncubsfan
explain yourself,i understand oil going up but im not sure about crude (Not enough) and im certainly not sure about gas draw down(used more?)
thanks noob
From this morning on Yahoo Finance:
How convenient, "investors" are "bullish" only to the point where the prior days losses are erased...A $20T financial mechanism, with millions of global participants that operates with such coordination...
Predicably pour in at the open to immediately erase the losses, then stop "buying" just as the prior days losses are eliminated. Now it will remain "range-bound," spiking higher with every attempt to move lower.
The legalized fraud continues unchecked as the Ponzi scheme continues to entertain the world...
GabyJan
tncubsfan
explain yourself,i understand oil going up but im not sure about crude (Not enough) and im certainly not sure about gas draw down(used more?)
Estimates were for a crude oil build of 3.8 million barrels and a draw of about 2 million barrels of refined gasoline. The EIA report today showed less of a crude build-up than expected and more of a gasoline draw, this market will likely see this as very bullish and push the price up.
In my opinion, outside of bizzaro world, a crude build should be seen as somewhat bearish, but the powers that be will mainly look at the gas draw as
Noob - What is Natgas doing? Am I missing something?
noob,
That is what the historical relationship suggests, and the ever more full liquid storage capacity...but with unlimited (until it is not) credit hosing down the markets it is not clear, particularly with the ahistoric levels of difference between the natural gas prices and oil prices which may reflect a reordering of their price relationship due to the excessive financialization of the oil futures market...but storage levels sure aren't telling the bullish price story that we see in the futures markets.
shill
what happens when the rest of the world gets bored instead of entertained?
One thing that modern armies can't go to war without, is a substantial supply of oil.
Is it possible that the brobdingnagians of Wall*Street that are sitting on vast quantities of go-juice all over the ocean, are just a proxy for Big Gov?
Great idea keeping interest rates near zero so our major banks could make a fortune. The little issue about the dollar - well, we will worry about that in the next crash.
energyecon,
Can the world ever produce more than 86 million barrels/day of oil (total liquids)?
tncubsfan wrote:
It's climbing to ever higher and higher levels even as people can't figure out where to store it because demand is so low. Full storage plus weak demand usually means falling prices. But in this environment...apparently not.
noob goldberg wrote:
Odd factoid. The YTD Return for GLD (the Gold ETF) and SPY are roughly the same: 20%. From the March lows, 45-50%.
Another odd factoid. The CBOE Gold Index (^GOX) is up ~55% YTD.
For some reason, I find the valuations of GLD & SPY odd because it is still just paper and arguably no productive (revenue earning) assets in either of them. Will these two paper funds be able to continue mirroring each other?
.
Will the time when ^GOX and GLD aren't moving in tandem be a sign of Paper Troubles (tm)?
yagij wrote:
Much the same could be said of gold bullion-
Angry Saver,
edit: sorry about that, read 82 instead of 92
(original: We already do with unconventional production)
How come there aren't Cash ETF's?
It's just as dumb as allowing somebody far, far away to be in charge of your finances, as far as holding metal is concerned...
Look at crude go!
Noob - I do believe natgas is over-priced based on the inventory levels we are seeing. I think the futures market is indeed looking at the surge in crude oil prices and natgas is an area where TPTB have room to run up the prices and make a killing. The fact that industrial utilization is in the crapper and storage is near full capacity doesn't seem to matter. The forward looking contracts are even more bullish with prices getting into the mid 6's. I'm sure TPTB see an avenue to get natgas up in the 9 - 11 range by mid winter. Articles and media reports of a "much colder than usual" winter on the east coast will fuel this run-up even more. Just some of my thoughts.
heh that is THE question - can it - we will never know - will it? nope...because the investments needed to sustain or in the dream case, increase global production simply are not occurring a this time...and when they do occur, the existing base production will have declined further so the hole to backfill before production can increase will be that much larger...others may disagree with that perspective, however...
energyecon wrote:
I think I understand and agree with you; the 'financialization' of the oil futures market reflects my concerns with similar actions with other non-oil futures markets, like the soft commodities, where the strong connection between spot and futures markets starts breaking down.
Global oil production increased by 380,000 b/d in 2008, or 0.4%, to 81.8 mb/d in 2008
source: BP statistical review
Oil production | Statistical Review 2009 | BP
Cinco-X wrote:
(I knew I should've reviewed my comment before posting. Need coffee.)
.
But Gold has some value. If you dissolve the underlying organization/corporation supporting GLD or SPY, you have toilet paper. Bankruptcy of those organizations can wipe you out. Having Gold or paper redeemable for Gold, you have the liability removed sans the revenue earning asset aspect.
I'm curious to see what the EIA natgas inventory report shows tomorrow? I'm guessing another build but a mauch smaller build than in previous weeks. It's been much colder in the south and east over the last week or so, maybe an increase in natgas usage. The market will react to the report bullishly because the storage build was less than in past weeks. That's what will be thrown out there to drive the long positions.
I was going to rag on 30yr fixed rate mortgages in America, because they are so much cheaper than in Canada (max term is 10yr, 80% LTV without mortgage insurance)
Then I did a brief, but frustrating, survey of other countries. UK, Germany, Spain, Japan, Australia... Sure they might individually have a max LTV or 30yr max term, but there are very low rates (puzzling for the EU, undercutting US mortgage rates), interest only, special rates for first time buyers ... Australia is just like California at bubble peak with all mortgages available like 106% LTV interest-only no documented income pick a payment
Gold just took off!
energyecon,
I see it the same way. We barely increased propduction from 2004 through 2008 despite soaring oil prices. That's telling imo.
WOW O WOW!!!! DXY at 75.07.. will it break intyo 74 today?
10:45 Currency: USD
Value
75.07
Change
-0.493
% Change
-0.652
High
75.72 Low
75.07 Open
75.57
We human beans are capable of producing about 1/20th the energy that oil can do for us, so it's isn't all that surprising that the world's population is about 10x what it was before we got go-juice to do the work for us.
Somehow we lived without oil for around 40,000 years, and we'll be there again after a couple hundred years of living la vida crude...
Shill -
Everything is going to take off! The dollar is down, oil is about to hit $80 again, natgas is up, it should be a feeding frenzy today! The scam continues....
My shoeshine boy and I were talking this morning, and the little rascal told me I should be investing in gold, bless his little heart. I tipped him a tuppence, brushed off my straw hat, and went on my way.
Not sure what it means, really.
Was there a POMO today? Maybe that would explain everything rising together (except, of course, the dollar).
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
You meant 6000 years, of course. But we'll forgive your error this one time.
It means buy more Silver...big returns coming in that market....get some while it is still on the cheap.
I am sure Rich will be by to agree and add.
POMO?? Excuse my ignorance
Permanent Open Market Operations
Federal Reserve Bank of New York - Permanent Open Market Operations
Permanent Open Market Operation. You know, printing money.
yagij wrote:
BREAKING
AMR Corp. Q3 loss $1.26 vs 12c EPS year ago
again, no per EIA current statistics - need to click on the "1.4" link on the bottom row under monthly - it will download a spreadsheet that gives you best estimate as of July, 2009 which is at a 7 month average rate of 83.7 MMBOD and and running ~2% behind last year.
EIA - International Energy Data and Analysis
edit: BP is actual oil production, the EIA numbers include lease condensate, natural gas liquids, kicthen sink etc.
Alright....I'm about to sell my energy and commodity shorts, take my medicine, and go long? Maybe 2x gold? I think it's in the cards that a commodity bubble will continue to form, maybe I should stop thinking logically and jump on the bandwagon....Any thoughts?
Hard to do all of that anointing without the oil.
The crazy thing about #79, is the neo-Goebbels have been advertising it heavily to their evangelically-minded audience for years, so on the face of it, anything that Sean, Rush or Glenn does seems tied into the idea that everything they say is ridiculous (99% of it is) and unfortunately, it's easy to smear it on the basis that they are cranks, but rarely is somebody completely wrong about everything, and this is the 1%, in which they got it right.
What happens when the only sizable group with any political cohesion also is the only people with real money?
I suspect we haven't seen the last of the the righty-tighty-gawdalmightys, politically.
Commodity exchanges and traders know that the disconnect between spot and futures markets is essential to a certain types of profitable trading. If commodity futures prices settled in cash, many of the trader's edges would disappear. Exchange profits would suffer too, in my estimation. (Index and currency futures already settle in cash and are an exception.)
shill:
Last week, Southwest states unequivocally that the worst was not behind them. Since they are the only consistently profitable airline, I'll take their analysis before any BS happy talk from failed companies like UAL and Continental. I still believe that the airlines will be the next industry bailed out, especially now that oil is screaming back towards 100.
Leftys Liquors Lubricants and Tarp and Bank wrote:
Hey Lefty, how's your co-branded card with Citi working out? Mine stopped working...
Citibank (NYSE: C) Cancels Exxon-Mobil (NYSE: XOM), Shell, and Conoco-Philips (NYSE: COP) Co-Branded Credit Cards without Warning - American Banking News
Japanese Yen 91.0950 ¥
Who buy $? BOJ?
Has anybody ever had as little as just 1 grain of physical gold delivered to them from an ETF, in exchange for their money?
(Re. CRE Re-Investment)..........I didn't realize Ray Nagin was STILL mayor of New Orleans......I thought he was ridden out of town on a blind horse.......maybe there IS hope for Jerry Brown again as Governor - California has as high a percentage of "that type of voter", correct?
Good luck with that.
..
there was a pomo this morning and one on the 29th...I think that is last one...
California politics is a jump ball right now. Jerry Brown looks likely but the skies are full of black swans.
11:13a
Fed buys $1.05 billion in Treasurys
Fed is still buying treasuries. Last spring they said they were going to stop
buying them. But the keep on coming back for more.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Not likely for several reasons. Once the gold is out of the vault it would have to be assayed to be put back in. Then you have storage costs - unless you're comfortable putting it under your bed. Feel free though. SPY can be redeemed in 50,000 share blocks for the stock basket. I don't know offhand what GLD creation/redemption baskets are but let's say they are the same. At today's GLD price of $103 you would need to be prepared to take delivery of a little over $5 million worth of gold. Not sure how much that would weigh but its more than I could probably carry lol.
I do know of people who have created/redeemed SPY shares - My response to yagij was with respect to SPY but since GLD is structured similarly I guess my reply is applicable to both.
ETN's are a different story - you bear the credit risk of the issuer. Look at what happened to the prices of Lehmans structured notes.
racial wrote:
I think they're talking about crude oil. Bear oils for lamps, etc. will still be around in limited quantities.
Mike in Long Island wrote:
What part are you referring? That they will liquidate the fund if the Trust's NAV is below 350 million? The Fund will terminate by January 22, 2118 or the date 20 years after the death of the last survivor of eleven persons named in the Trust Agreement? What if they stop secondary trading markets? Then what?
.
Paulson violated IRS Tax Code by decree, and you think we plebes are protected by some paper stating "Trust us"?
.
Edit: I think we are coming from two separate PoVs in regards to the issue. You are coming from the past experience that the system works and will continue to work. I'm coming from the position that the Trust can be frozen through a variety of players, and as a holder of SPY, you can be left high and dry regardless of what the Prospectus states.
SNAFU wrote:
When in doubt vote "BoJ"? when it comes to a weakening Yen in the face of an even weaker USD.
Do Krugerrands, Maple Leafs or Eagles need to be assayed every time they change hands?
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Per the GLD "decree", you need 250k of shares to make it happen, and then, you will have to jump through a few more hoops.
nova wrote:
That's why you should avoid ingots and stick with antiques with a known provenance.
Mine is in the shape of a falcon, sold to me by a very reputable fat man from Istanbul. I would recommend, however, security -- strange people have been loitering around my apartment ever since I purchased it -- so keep the number of people who know you have it at a strict minimum. I disguised mine with black enamel paint for a final layer of protection -- no-one would ever know its true value! Ha ha!
OT: I added a graphic regarding whether REO inventory is being built or reduced based on the DQ quarterly reports:
Effective Demand: DQ Foreclosure report and California Shadow Inventory
OT2: Rob Dawg, I emailed you some stuff on La Loma, not sure if you got it.
Galleon Group is winding down its hedge fund holdings, the company's embattled CEO Raj Rajaratnam said in a statement.
?
Since hedge funds do so much on leverage, does this me a shrinking money supply? I know $3.7Billion isn't that much in the grand scheme of things, but they'll also presumably be dumping a lot of whatever they're holding as well. A
yagij wrote:
In that case you should be avoiding all stock transactions since shares are held in book entry form - unless you ask for certificates for every share you buy. There's
and then there's 
- if we see that kind of breakdown it's Mad Max and you won't care if your stock is book entry or certificate form - unless you need TP.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
In the '80s, the answer for Krugerrands was no, and hence, they sold at a premium over bullion. I would assume that's true for the rest, but I don't know for sure-
DCRogers, smart moves. You ought to write a book about it. Maybe someone will make a movie out of it some day.
Thats right people. All you have to do is act like Pavlov's dog in order to make money in this market.
Mike in Long Island wrote:
As it turns out, you can wet the paper, roll bundles tightly together, and use them for firewood once they've dried. Might be a useful tip if you live in the city. It also produces less acid rain than doing the same with newsprint, FWIW-
DCRogers,
Funny. Make a great movie. I suggest "Black Swan" as a working title and staring Nick Cage.
Mike in Long Island wrote:
I'm living in a time where the USG deficit has grown north of 1.4 trillion USD. The Fed is printing billions of USD per week. UE is hitting 30 year highs and climbing. I'm reminded that 90% of stock certificates owned in 1929 were worthless by 1939. Yes, I don't have faith in this current arrangement, and I only transfer weakening USD for paper shares (certificates preferred) to hedge against currency devaluation/inflation.
.
I don't have faith that the SPY mechanism will last considering how badly it is used/abused by TBTF on Wall^Street. I do understand what the law is suppose to be, but I don't think it will play out that smoothly.
Galleon to Liquidate Funds; Said Approached on Assets
Galleon to Liquidate Funds; Said Approached on Assets (Update6) - Bloomberg.com
dcrogers, I owe you a beer, should I pick you up at you apt?
What is the current gold contract symbol and month? Is it december's contract? My yahoo tracking hasn't moved or updated the price since yesterday. Is it now gcz09.cmx?
Effective Demand wrote:
I didn't pay attention because it was from: TEST ACCOUNT
I see it now, thanks. I think they have two water shares, That adds a lot of value IMO.
I'll be more careful in the future about using names. Sorry.
If Cali elects Jerry Brown then that show how reality disconnected the trolls are. As AG he didn't go after Country wide because his sister was on the board of directors! I ma sure old Mozillo will donate to Jerry's campaign fund quite nicely.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Depends on time and place. At coin shows or shops. I have never had someone question the authenticity of my sovereign coins: silver or gold. However if we find ourselves using them in daily transactions with unknown people, I would say that you would have to be a fool not too. Fortunately for Gold, it is an expensive and risky operation to forge sovereigns. For Silver, the problem is getting the weight, density, and look right vs. sovereigns.
.
Unfortunately, you will need scales to ensure people aren't shaving their coins.
Russia's Central Bank Buys 400,000 Ounces of Gold in September
The Gold Cupboard is Bare at the U.S. Mint Once Again - Ed Steer's Gold & Silver Daily
nova wrote:
Here's another
noob goldberg wrote:
Okay, after looking around it seems the CAD is one of the few making really dramatic moves today. Anyone else noticing their favourite forex pairs making strong moves? CAD has moved about a cent and a half in the past few hours and doesn't show any sign of slowing down. But this is against most other currencies, as opposed to just the USD or EUR, like normal.
noob goldberg wrote:
USD/JPY is moving again at 0.50 Yen/USD. Volatility I could believe in!
Anybody watch 'warning' last night? I did. That trio of Rubin, Greenspan and Summers were one harmful clique. In the video, the power play and the meanness were palpable. Summers, Geithner and BB are still at it in this WH. If Sheila quits, then it is 'warning' all over again.
shill wrote:
Why was this fund not seized when its manager was indicted for insider trading?
I guess I'm asking why that headline doesn't read 'SEC to Liquidate Galleon Funds'.
Rob Dawg wrote:
I took a class in modern history and the prof was in the state dept in WWII - was a low level staffer at Yalta. He said there was a rumor floating about of the following exchange...
In a quiet moment between negotiations the big three were chatting and FDR pulled out his cigarette case for a smoke... it was engraved and so Churchill commented - 'who gave that to you?'... it was his classmates at Harvard. The engraving was to 'Dear Franklin'... Churchill had a similar bobble [cigar case or flask or something] - also engraved and citing his name... from one of his polo teams or social club... 'Dear Winston'...
Uncle Joe - not to be out done - pulled out his cigarette case... engraved to a 'Count So-and-So' a prominent official close to the Czar in St Petersburg prior to the December Revolution... he didn't venture to explain the connection or how it 'fell into his hands'. Didn't have to.
8:39 a.m. and 2 posts already. I can't keep up.
Great read on Fake Gold
Fake Gold?!
It's pig-inflation.
Oil!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Main-street has not a clue.
ot-Bernanke: Don't move up new credit card rules
Bernanke: Don't move up new credit card rules - MarketWatch
its will cost my associates some money...
yagij wrote:
The USD/CAD has fallen from 1.0582 to 1.0412 since 8AM this morning. At this rate it'll drop almost 2 cents before lunch.
shill wrote:
That is more informative than your usual comments.
noob goldberg wrote:
Does it make you more hungry for some American dishes?
dryfly wrote:
I didn't know he was standing close enough to catch it when it...fell.
Keep it simple for the noobs
yagij wrote:
From where I am today, I can throw a rock and hit the USA. But I forgot my passport, so I can't wander over for lunch.
shill wrote:
I appreciate your efforts.
noob goldberg wrote:
Might get a terrorist designation if you do that. Then you can have an all-expense paid trip to the USoA without your passport!
Englehard extruded 100 oz silver bars are the most common silver product to be found, with lead in the middle, having replaced the grey-mare within.
Caveat emptor, and stick with JM poured 100 oz'ers instead, ,rads.
noob goldberg wrote:
No cross border shopping for you then. You will pay that VAT and LIKE it!!!
yagij wrote:
'Throw a rock' is just a figure of speech, in this case referring to smuggling crack cocaine across the border. I'm not a terrorist, I'm a mule.
dryfly wrote:
I think I'll go do something really dangerous to my health for lunch, like jump a skateboard across three busses while smoking a cigarette, all because I don't have to pay a penny for any healthcare-related costs.
I'm embarrassed by a lot of the ignorant talk on this board about GLD and SLV, the PM ETFs.
Here's what you mainly need to know: These ETFs are the most efficient way for most people to accumulate or sell off small amonts of gold or silver. There is bullion held in a vault that matches the value of assets in the ETF trust, that is the NAV. So, these ETFs really are the equivalent of a gold-backed currency. They trade spot-on every day at the London fixing prices of bullion, less their accumulated expenses, which are pretty reasonable and much less than you pay for coin or bullion brokerage, storage, etc.
You can buy and sell, as much as you want, at any time of the day for the brokerage charge. The spread between bid and ask is almost always a penny per share. Each share is worth one ounce of silver (SLV) or one-tenth ounce of gold (GLD). So, you can buy ten shares of GLD (one ounce of gold) in the morning at $1,050 and if bullion goes up $10, you can sell those ten shares in the afternoon for $1,060 less 10 cents. It doesn't get more liquid or efficient than that.
A lot of the GLD and SLV conspiracy theorists are just envious, because they still don't own any gold or silver. If they do own bullion or coins, they know they'll take a hit of 2-3% when they decide to sell. There's nothing wrong with bullion or coins for large amounts or buy-and-hold.
Ohhhh. Border tensions with Canada.
How long before we see signs like this in stores; "Avoid conversion fees. CAD accepted at par."
Got
?
noob goldberg wrote:
You Canucks get to have all the fun... BIG SIGH
noob goldberg wrote:
Finally, a rational explanation of the popularity of hockey.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Actually, I'm thinking of taking a holiday in Florida for the winter, simply because many vacation/tourist destinations haven't figured out that the dollar is at par yet. So we get a relatively cheap vacation, plus a pile of 'Canadian-only' incentives designed for our previously weaker currency.
At least that's how it's worked for a few friends of mine, but I'm sure these loopholes are rapidly closing.
noob goldberg wrote:
And the state will pay for your support as a quad for the next 60 years. Wotta bargain!
In Northern Vermont, they've had those signs for quite awhile.
Compare the size of a 1 troy ounce pure silver eagle coin and a 1 troy ounce pure gold buffalo coin. You'll notice that the silver coin is nearly twice as big in size, because gold is a very dense metal, specific gravity and all, etc.
I've never seen a fake Maple Leaf, Krugerrand, Eagle, or any other modern struck gold coin that was counterfeit, not one.
rich wrote:
I meant in America.
Bonus is you get to sue the bus company because they did noting to stop or warn you, It's not you fault when you are in America!
I look forward to the day in the not too distant future when I can replay your words for you, after the scoundrels make off with your money...
....why would anyone buy "paper" gold? No place to bury or hide it?
Rob Dawg wrote:
There's no rational explanation for the popularity of hockey.
The only reason it's played is because once in a while it's fulfilling to beat the living crap out of your friends. I have no idea why we watch professionals play it live or on TV.
Anonymous Bosch wrote:
Come on, give the peasants a break, most went to skool in Merica. Remember those ads where "they" were selling a hunk of steel as the "Amazing meat defroster" that allowed one to defrost meat in an "amazing" amount of time. I think the hunk of steel was about 20 bucks, and that was when 20 bucks meant something.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Near the border? You won't need signs - the word on the street of the 'official' [black market] exchange rate moves as fast as a Bloomie terminal. Seriously - especially places like Ft. Francis/Int'l Falls where people work both sides of the border and 'intermarriage' is rampant. Hard to find someone up there without family on both sides.
Those folks are pretty much indifferent to Washington & Ottawa alike [or even St. Paul or Toronto]... mountain high, emperor far away.
Farther away from the border? Sure a sign might help those not in the know.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Nor have I, but I have seen coins dropped on a specific gravity scale to verify their content.
Anyone who would rather have a 400 oz. bar than 400 one oz. struck pieces is crazy from the git-go.
How long before we see signs like this in stores; "Avoid conversion fees. CAD accepted at par."
Used to see the "USD accepted 1:1" signs all the time in the Caribbean protectorates using the Euro - St. Lucia, Aruba, etc. Started seeing them pop up in the summer of '03, when the Euro crossed over $1.10. They remained prevalent for years, and I was surprised to still see a lot of them up on our last trip to St. Lucia, in early '07, given that the Euro was ticking up near $1.35.
You don't see those signs up any more.
Though, given another couple of years at this pace, I guess we could expect "USD accepted 1:2" signs to start popping up. Woo-hoo!
One for the Meredith Whitney fans this morning:
Meredith Whitney Not Fan of Dollar Dominatrix Nickname, John Mack "Not Retiring" But Possibly Starring In Own Biopic - Dealbreaker - A Wall Street Tabloid - Business News Headlines and Financial Gossip
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Not sure you can really call it "living" with out TV.
rich wrote:
There's a lot of trust involved in financial instruments like these. Unfortunately trust in the financial system is what's been destroyed by the developments of the past two years; and it continues to be destroyed.
Like so many other instruments, the ETFs will be fine until something stresses them. Then we find out if the promises they're based on are real or not. I don't blame people for steering clear of a proposition like that.
Somehow we lived without oil for around 40,000 years
Not 6 billion of us.
noob goldberg wrote:
Just what we need! More moral hazard
If you had some skin in the game, you'd be more careful-
winner winner chicken dinner - well, it tastes like chicken...
*some investor guy wrote:
I was just talking about this index this morning at a jobsite meeting. I asked the contractor is he was looking at site-framed or panelized (an affordable housing project). He said he did not know of any large panelizer still in business in the state of Minnesota. We talked about work levels in architectural offices as a look-ahead... not pretty. I know one formerly very large firm where a few guys still go in from 8:00 to 1:00 four days a week... and of firms that have laid off 2/3 of all employees. I know of no firm looking at 2010 as a better year than 2009.