lol, just like all the other unpopular spending that has been approved. I still give it a 50/50 chance, and only so low because you don't buy the same votes twice
How far down this path do we have to go before someone realizes that the problem is the government spending at all levels? Common sense is just not all that common.
EHP, the thing that kills me is how many stories label it a "popular tax credit". I bet an overwhelming number of Americans oppose the extension of the credit ... it is popular with the 2 million home buyers who received a gift, and the real estate industry ... and apparently scammers! But that is about it. Oh wait, lobbyists are making a fortune.
I put it at 90% for a six month extension (no expansion).
"so how much money are FNM and FRE going to get to execute HAMP?"
Saw your question on the last thread, to be honest, I have lost track of how much each of them have borrowed, but most estimates are they are going to need it all, whatever "all" was ($200B each I think?).
The "losses" on HAMP won't be broken out separately from all their other losses, the initial losses for holding below-market-rate loans will just kill their NIM, and the ultimate default losses will just be thrown in the bucket with the rest of them.
The internal watchdog for the U.S. Internal Revenue Service is expected to warn the agency for the fourth time about fraud in the multibillion dollar homebuyer tax credit program ... The inspector general found at least 70,000 tax credit claims, totaling $489 million, were granted to individuals who do not appear to qualify for it. ... The agency has opened 107,000 civil cases related to the credit and identified 167 criminal schemes.
I think somebody pissed off the wrong folks. Stealing from the Treasury is one thing, but stealing from the IRS is quite another-
TIGTA (Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration) has suggested to Congress that they allow the IRS to treat misstatements of claims for the FTHC as a "math error" which allows the IRS to change numbers on the return proactively and force the Taxpayer to defend it before there is any refund rather than after.
Sure the White House will mumble about the cost. But Congress will extend the credit and Obama will sign it. No doubt in my mind. If they don't keep the property values up more underwater home owners will walk, banks will have to take losses, CDOs will have to be paid out, pension funds will lose income.
The guy with the mod. He is a renter, at below market rent, until his payments go up. Then he is gone.
I think the government should pay for my kitchen remodel as a stimulus. They can bail out cabinet makers, counter-top makers and flooring makers all in one shot! Everybody wins!
legislators from the Wolverine State are working behind the scenes to craft a “bipartisan” bill that would eliminate a home buyer tax credit, but instead would give all home buyers next year an American-made compact car valued up to $15,000 – at, of course, the MSRP, and paid for by the US government.
CR,
You left out the" /snark at the end"......right?
It's all fake. Our eCONomy is a big fat lie. I stopped playing the charade a few years ago. And it's now far worse than ever.
Last year banks were going belly-up. A few accounting rule changes, a TARP, some printing and low and behold banks are wildly profitable again.
Yeah right. Unemployment has increased, foreclosures are still soaring, credit card defaults are rising, CRE laons are defaulting like mad, 15% of AMericans are at the poverty level, 12% are on food stamps, 20% of income is from government transfers, aggregate private income is down 5% in two years, net national savings are negative 3%, government debt has ballooned.....
And yet, banks are flush. At least the important banks.
Another tiny economic indicator. The waiting room at the vet's yesterday was full. People are still caring for their pets, as opposed to, say, eating them. But there was a sign on the wall that said credit would not be extended, due to abuse (of the credit, presumably).
CalculatedRisk
Rasmussen had a poll that surveyed support for housing bailouts, and then contrasted it with the estimated number of negative equity homeowners. The more successful the programs are, the less support they have
so brazil is the latest country to intervene in the currency markets, albeit with fiscal measures. this is getting interesting. one economic crisis after another.
If RE looks wobbly in the spring, they might do the 15k extension to all comers, which would make more people like it. Everybody is saying "where's my bailout?" and this is one way to appease the rest of the homedebtor class. I'll bet the paperwork has already been drawn up by Chuckie and Barney.
Rasmussen had a poll that surveyed support for housing bailouts, and then contrasted it with the estimated number of negative equity homeowners. The more successful the programs are, the less support they have
Here's a link to the survey
BTW, how do you define a "successful" program?
The fraudsters trying to claim the credit are being pretty crafty. They use stolen identities and file a return claiming the credit. They have the credit direct deposited to a prepaid card they purchased. The IRS processes the credit and transfers the money to the prepaid card account and the fraudsters are gone. The IRS is so screwed up, they have no way to verify the return before sending the credit out. Once they review the return, they send the taxpayer whose identity has been stolen a deficiency notice. The fraudsters may file a hundred or more returns.
Luckily, most of the prepaid card processors are onto the fraud and if they see multiple deposits by the IRS to the card accoutn they freeze it and return the funds.
Let's assume FNM/FRE buy 500,000 mortgages out of the MBS pools. at an average par value of $250k which is probably on the low side given that these loans have penalties. That's $125bn, and HAMP trials finish up by year end I think. I forget what their minimum capitalization is, so maybe it won't be huge. They might even have enough budget slack to avoid requesting more money for weeks. oh the fun in store should nominal yields ever rise
See my comment in regards to how this mechanism plays out. Any and all comments welcomed.
If everyone finds themselves trying to printing press themselves out of this problem of carry-trade inflation or local currency inflation, how do you avoid the global depression outcome? Eventually, something makes the system say, "I don't accept your fiat." At that point, the system grinds to a halt as people try to figure out a new way to get the economy moving again.
The Fed's secretly buying mortgage-backed securities is disgusting. Any notion of a capitalist free market rewarding success has been exposed as absurd. Time to remove the dome from the teapot full of toxic slime.
Basel Too
Don't forget the proposal for Japan Post to move out of JGBs and USTs, towards lending at higher rates (overseas, or domestically where it encourages growth)
"There is no need for any 'bailout,"' Donovan said, adding that he expects the FHA capital reserve ratio to rise above the 2% mandated by Congress in the next two years.
How can that possibly be true when you look at this chart...
Who is going to buy their debt once Bernanke stops?
Who or what is going to make Bernanke stop? Is it not pretty much "game over" if he does, as rising interest rates and treasury yields and falling home prices, put an end to the bankers ponzi dreams?
They were trashed by the Democrats for "allowing" Bush to beat Gore. Specifically in Florida. The "Progressive sites" were all over these people for at least 4 years. Many of them tho, said the reason they voted for Nader was specifically BECAUSE they thought the Democrats were as corrupt as Republicans, but allowing Bush to trash the country would finish it off faster. Didn't exactly work as they intended, but you have to give them a A+ for effort.
Here comes(and goes) the Sun, after about a decade of decay. Microsoft (and IBM and HP ) wins! Who knew this would be the eventual outcome while working a brand new Sun Solaris sparc II workstation in the early to mid 90's? I guess Bill Gates did! Oh well , ten years from now, we will say the same thing about the almighty $, I suppose. May be sooner.
Who or what is going to make Bernanke stop? Is it not pretty much "game over" if he does, as rising interest rates and treasury yields and falling home prices, put an end to the bankers ponzi dreams?
I mentioned this a week or two ago; it's the new [un]reality-
Definitely off topic and let me apologize in advance. I feel that it is not only interesting but pertinent to the general discussion of our economic policies. I apologize to Nemo for using his comment to bring this to your attention.
This is a quiz. What do the record-high Wall Street bonuses have in common with the record-low yields for savers? Answer: They show yet another way that prudent people, especially those living on fixed incomes, are being cheated by the government's bailout of the imprudent.
I can't see what that has to do with the future and I sincerely doubt that anyone can influence the future because this is not so much about money or energy but how addicted people act. You can save addicted individuals, can you save a world of energy addicts?
When you can't tell that absurd proposals from the albeit understated CR are jokes, it's getting even more ridiculous. The idea that deregulating big public banks would be good for anyone but big bankers was ridiculous from the beginning, of course...
"Who or what is going to make Bernanke stop? Is it not pretty much "game over" if he does, as rising interest rates and treasury yields and falling home prices, put an end to the bankers ponzi dreams?"
Tru dat. I really don't think he will stop, despite what he says. The guy is a liar - he says he is not monetizing the debt, at the same time his minions buy debt. He says he will slow down MBS purchases, when he doesn't slow down at all.
His claim that he will stop buying agency debt and MBS in March is just another lie. He can't stop.
This will just add to the cost of the HAMP program, as the taxpayer will be forced to fund these monsters through even more monetary inflation.
San FRANCISCO> can you save a world of energy addicts?
How 'bout a state of addicts?
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Sun Microsystems Inc. plans to eliminate up to 3,000 jobs as it awaits a takeover by Oracle Corp., a deal that is being held up by antitrust regulators in Europe.
The layoffs Sun outlined Tuesday in a regulatory filing amount to about to 10 percent of the company's 29,000 workers and will happen over the next year.
They are the latest rounds of cuts at the struggling server and software maker, which reached the $7.4 billion deal with Oracle in April after nearly a decade of wobbly financial performance.
It was; unfortunately, it also sounded like something a Michigan Congressman like Dingell might try-
His staffers are already copy & pasting away - ready to attach to all and every bill as an amendment. Lobbyists benefiting better hit the tip jar that's all I got to say...
What's capitalist about putting people into debt at 30% default rates? Answer me that. Tell me what a lender would charge if they knew default rates would be 30%? tell me what lender today is offering 3.5% down mortgages and keeping the credit risk themselves?
Only our government is offering those kind of credit terms.
That is not capitalism, it is debt-slavery, Fascism style.
Any government that knowingly puts its people in debt where they know 30% plus will default is an immoral government.
In what WAS a democracy, that means that at one time this is what "the people" voted for. Survival of the fittest, dudes!!!! The smartest amoral scumbags win, exactly as "the people" wanted.
I would like to congratulate CR for being so out front and accurate and persistent in getting this issue right.
You will never know how much "national opinion" is swayed by one blogger and blog.
But it can be done. What you have seen is a lot of the opinion bigshots using words and figures very similar to CRs to argue his position in higher place.
I take that back. There is no higher place than CR.
Diane Rheem (Rhiem? Reim? Ream?) of NPR had a thing on reviving newspapers.
I wondered why? I read it first on CR anyway. Hardly read newspapers at all.
Don't watch as much tv.
Yeah, no "editor" edits us, but so what. We are delighted to real time jump on
each other and challenge mistakes.
Any government that knowingly puts its people in debt where they know 30% plus will default is an immoral government.
Yeah but buyers are not putting anything down that is not covered by the credit and it all likely ends up on the FHA/Fed books, so it is just an exercise in keeping inventory off the market for a short period of time, for the banks benefit.
Or, have a lottery and give 60k cramdowns to one out of 4 delinquent owners,
and reimburse the bank!
Lotteries would be more fair, have less administration, and offer a bigger impact for the same amount of spending.
smartypants-Ben favors renting a helicopter to drop money directly into bottomless pits
Sun was the Ferrari of computers. Sad to see them go.
IRIX? AIX? I can't really call them the Ferrari of computers. They may be the last brand standing, but there were good, efficient quality UNIX platforms too.
Citizen AllenM wrote:
Notice C4C died after a good skewering here and elsewhere?
What did happen to the C4C energy? Cash 4 Appliances anyone? Why has the C4* died on the vines?
Sun was so much smarter than Apollo. Back in mists of the late 80's, a computer science department I attended was flush with a giant grant, and anxious to get their sticky mitts on a big pile of shiny workstations.
Apollo refused to discount, but Sun, taking a play from the DEC playbook, was willing to discount, knowing that probably several years of students would be ready to specify Sun hardware when they inevitably made it into a buying position.
I've never even seen an Apollo, but Sun pizza boxes and discs are everywhere.
Actually, I would argue that CR is quite influential, and the commentariat here is now monitored for that same reason.
Anything ridiculed here should be quickly dropped, as the savvy folks stick forks in obvious holes.
Notice C4C died after a good skewering here and elsewhere?
The fact this is more reality based and less partisan improves the quality of the analysis.
No argument there; it's interesting how CR came out about the absurdity of the $8k tax credit, and it slowly became a meme in the blogosphere and then the MSM. That said, it's better without the fawning. I don't think (though I certainly can't speak for him) CR needs that sort of "Validation".
BTW, do really think the commentariat is monitored? I have a hard time taking myself that seriously- (I know I'm setting myself up with that one- fire away )
BTW, do really think the commentariat is monitored? I have a hard time taking myself that seriously-
The blog is. I wouldn't be surprised if people don't read/skim the comment section too. /. is frequented by higher ups in the tech world so why would CR not attract people to its world? Its breadth and knowledge for its cost is unmatchable IMO.
Exactly...you nailed it. Now flash forward about 5 years...CS student wants access to a real OS, not what Apple and MS are pushing. Guess what? Sun costs an arm and a leg. Everyone in class uses Microsoft or Apple. McNealy and Co. forgot the lesson.
BTW, do really think the commentariat is monitored? I have a hard time taking myself that seriously- (I know I'm setting myself up with that one- fire away )
Yes.
And Krugman has provided the evidence over the last couple of years.
Others have also provided significant signs of influence from here.
But Tanta's passing noticed in the NYT was the final confirmation.
A select few around here have noted my comments and are aware of my identity- but they are only lurkers. It is amazing how many people are not brave enough to make significant comments out of fear.
Apollo refused to discount, but Sun, taking a play from the DEC playbook, was willing to discount, knowing that probably several years of students would be ready to specify Sun hardware when they inevitably made it into a buying position.
I interviewed at Sun way back. The big problem there (or so I've heard) was that folks eventually stopped working and essentially took up dealing coke full time. I remember that I had the interview, and the interviewer insisted on following me back to my car and seemed to be trying to keep me from leaving. I was later told he was waiting for me to give him some coke in exchange for the job. It was really creepy to me. Sometimes you get that with unrestrained success and growth. Visual Technology had a similar story.
Hey give us a 15k tax credit each for cars, and the hub and I will both go
out immediately and buy one.
The flaw in your plan is that if such a tax credit were to be made available, the auto industry would enact an across-the-board 15K price increase on every single vehicle model.
We already know the Fed reads this blog, so I wouldn't be surprised if some staffers dug into the comments too.e.
The WH, Treasury and Fed should run some of their trial balloons through here so they can be thoroughly vetted before getting Congresspeople and their lobbyists all giddy.
Waiting on the paper- it is not real until the paper shows up and gets signed- besides, I have a rental property to cramdown next and some other debt to boot.
If the state is running the show, it's no longer a capitalist system.
If corporations are running the State, is it still capitalism?
You guys are hilarious.
You're in such denial like I never saw except for the housing bubble.
You wanted to own EVERTHING IN THE UNIVERSE without interference and you got wish.
Enjoy the fruits, dude.
A wrecked country where nothing ever works right again.
I was later told he was waiting for me to give him some coke in exchange for the job. It was really creepy to me. Sometimes you get that with unrestrained success and growth. Visual Technology had a similar story.
It's sad when the parasites kill the host. I'm sure there is an analogy to economics, but I can't quite put my finger on it....
Before any individual Congress Critter should be ceded credibility, print space or air time on these issues by the media, I suggest the media review the foreclosures in their home state. Take a look at Georgia's, and then you see why Isakson is hell-bent on this policy.
If a state is dumb enough to permit this to develop, that doesn't mean that other states should be dumb enough to try to bail them out.
Critters from CA, NV, AZ, GA and FL shouldn't be allowed to dominate this debate.
I liked your post in regards to why TA predictions work. I think it was in regards to SOA (?), but the basis was the waves were predictable as was the overall trend. Interesting nugget to help pull information out of the blobby mass of data that is the internet, website, etc.
Irony has always been the satirist's "get out of jail free" card:
I have complete faith that Mr. Paulson and all other GS alumni in the US Government have always acted 100% under the law for the the sole interest of the American taxpayer.
The Fed's program of buying private MBS to quantitatively ease credit is capitalist genius. Dollar hegemony benefits the rest of the world.
A select few around here have noted my comments and are aware of my identity- but they are only lurkers. It is amazing how many people are not brave enough to make significant comments out of fear.
I would say it is wise to be afraid of others vindictiveness.
A wrecked country where nothing ever works right again.
Yeah, it's "capitalism" when the pure Ayn Rand acolytes are running things. But, when the unregulated normal-human smart amoral scumbags do what any self-respecting smart amoral scumbag SHOULD do - which is screwing people using the power of the government - then, magically, it's NOT capitalism.
Another case of the theoretical “ism” people being unable to comprehend the law of unintended consequences when it comes to THEIR favorite idealistic fantasy “ism”.
An "ism" that can’t regulate the smartest amoral scumbags ends up with the smartest amoral scumbag winning. Which is where we are now.
Why don't we apply the 15k tax credit only to American made RV's (maybe boats w/ cabins as well)? Kill 2 birds with one stone-housing and transportation.
I've wanted to build a website where you have a map with all the congressional districts. You hover over one, it shows you the representative and the demographics/economy/major employers etc. You click on the congressperson's name and it takes you to a page with all their major PAC donations and a google news/search history of "congressperson's name + fundraiser".
Of course, all this information is available, but having it in one place may actually encourage people to learn about what the possible biases of each politician could be. However, it probably somewhat exists somewhere, and I'm just too lazy to look for it or build one and have no technical skillset (I'm in FIRE).
You click on the congressperson's name and it takes you to a page with all their major PAC donations and a google news/search history of "congressperson's name + fundraiser".
Yes, this is an age of moral crisis. Yes, you are bearing punishment for your evil. But it is not man who is now on trial and it is not human nature that will take the blame. It is your moral code that's through, this time. Your moral code has reached its climax, the blind alley at the end of its course. And if you wish to go on living, what you now need is not to return to morality -- you who have never known any -- but to discover it. You have heard no concepts of morality but the mystical or the social. You have been taught that morality is a code of behavior imposed on you by whim, the whim of a supernatural power or the whim of society, to serve God's purpose or your neighbor's welfare, to please an authority beyond the grave or else next door -- but not to serve your life or pleasure.-- John Galt
Angry Saver wrote: Every economy throughout history has been managed. It's a matter of degree.
That is true, but how an economy is managed has a lot to do with outcomes. Controlling risks (especially aggregation of risks) is a useful regulatory function. Dictating solutions generally has not been.
So, for example, there is a world of difference between requiring banks to keep high reserves in a risky environment, basically illegalizing scam products, demanding disclosure of OTC med ingredients, and banning certain relatively toxic OTC meds in opposition to requiring that all stores carry aspirin, or that all doctors prescribe aspirin, or legislating bank spending or product provision directly. I am uneasy that Congress is pushing government mortgages on people at prices that private lenders won't generally provide.
Eliminating the worst risks and making other risks controllable via mandating visibility seems to both be a necessary government function and one that leads to more long-term stability. Trying to impose a solution on an economy directly often seems to miscarry.
Have we learned from our recent misdeeds? I suspect not. Isakson, in particular, ought to have been laughed off the national stage long before now. The reason he hasn't been is because too much recent policy impetus has been directed at propping up home policies; thus his proposals are really only an extreme case of a generally accepted solution of the problem.
It's not too late to bring every single mortgage which is late
current, thus ending all foreclosures--for a while. And wasting
less money? While people still imagine it's worth something.
smart people transcend what you identify as morals. they see the end game. it's not about the result of the actions, but the possible responses to their actions by others.
the semi-smart can only see a few steps ahead and leave a turbulent wake.
smart people rob the bank without anyone ever knowing that bank was robbed
semi-smart people rob the bank, and expect they are smart enough to avoid ever being caught. even if they do get away, it is not the smartest way to rob a bank
Had some business dealings with Sun in the late nineties. Found their business development people really, really unpleasant. Microsoft, in surprising contrast, was very straightforward.
I would say it is wise to be afraid of others vindictiveness.
To borrow the line from a song:
You've got to stand for something, or you will fall for everything.
They want a piece of me, they can get in line behind my wife.
Or, why bother? After all, I am not worth billions, only have one vote, and notice the emperor not only had no clothes, but was dancing in the streets drunk, and nobody ever even made a threatening call. America is still the land of the free to vent and rant.
"...but not to serve your life or pleasure.-- John Galt"
Yes, if everyone were to serve his own life and pleasure everything would be peachy keen.
When the SU fell someone in my landlady's kitchen in Moscow launched a tirade at me in which he assured me that if everyone in Russia were simply to mind their own business it would all turn out right. So then we got the rule of the mob.
One would think that the Federal Election Commission and State Election Commissions would put together something like that, as you describe, and promote vigorously.
Not all that interested in dullards, quite frankly...
I am a trader. I earn what I get in trade for what I produce. I ask for nothing more or nothing less than what I earn. That is justice. I don't force anyone to trade with me; I only trade for mutual benefit. Force is the great evil that has no place in a rational world. One may never force another human to act against his/her judgment. If you deny a man's right to Reason, you must also deny your right to your own judgment. Yet you have allowed your world to be run by means of force, by men who claim that fear and joy are equal incentives, but that fear and force are more practical. -- John Galt
You're in such denial like I never saw except for the housing bubble.
When I was in college [late 70s - early 80s] I was fortunate to hang out with BOTH Ayn Rand libertarians and Marxist socialists... different circles but I was accepted in both [who knows why]... denial is a common theme out on both tails of the argument.
Great story - I was building a touring bike at a co-op [non-profit bike shop]... you could go there, rent a bench, use their tools and build or maintain a bike from the parts you bought from them. Great deal.
So anyway - I ask one of them how I can 'join'... they say 'you can't join - its a co-op and you get nominated & voted in then you are allowed to work here'. I was confused - I thought it was like a food co-op where you paid to join, volunteered to do some work and got a great discount... they say 'nope - its a workers co-op...members get paid to work here... proceeds from the enterprise get divided up according to how many hours you work'... only those who are nominated & voted in by the other co-op members get to work here.'
So I say... "I get it - its like a small business and you all are the owners!" They almost threw me out on the street right then and there - bike unfinished... 'WE AREN'T NO $#^&! CAPITALIST SMALL BUSINESS!!! WE ARE A CO-OPERATIVE - GET IT STRAIGHT!!!'
smart people transcend what you identify as morals. they see the end game.
I agree. So.... I'm not sure what you meant then by you have to watch out for the semi-smart. I'm generally not too worried about the semi-smart amoral scum-bags, they'll eventually get caught. It's cream of the crop of that I"m worried about.
I don't disagree with anything you are saying. I was merely making a simple comment for all the uber-anti government free market types to think about.
In my view, to what ever level a Gov't is involved in an economy, that Gov't should strive to eliminate any economic privilege stemming from the Gov't itself. We do just the opposite. Bailouts, the Military Industrial Complex, Laws written by special interest groups, loopholes you can drive a truck through, favorable tax rates, Gov't financial guarantees, etc. None of that is in the common good.
oh come on, no one really believes in the book atlas shrugged
it's completely silly to imagine a giant god holding up the earth on his back. Holding it up from what? Why not just set it down on the floor. Why can't we see this giant, or the floor. How does the sun make it onto the earth with a giant in the way, how do satellites orbit?
EXCEPT for the smart people writing the laws. Which means it's inevitable. Assuming you've got a society where smart people are attracted to money and MOST of the money happens to be in public corporations and government. If I were smart, that's where I'd be.
If you've understood what I've said, stop supporting your destroyers. Don't accept their philosophy. Your destroyers hold you by means of your endurance, your generosity, your innocence, and your love. Don't exhaust yourself to help build the kind of world that you see around you now. In the name of the best within you, don't sacrifice the world to those who will take away your happiness for it. -- John Galt
the smart amoral people aren't going to try and bleed a stone, the semi-smart amoral people will. I guess this begs the question of where the smart amoral powerful people are, if they do not stop the semi-smart amoral people for the benefit of everyone
if they do not stop the semi-smart amoral people for the benefit of everyone
Many times the Smart Amoral People (SA) hire the Semi-Smart Amoral People (SSA) to do their dirty work for them. Then when they need a scapegoat or sacrificial lamb, they got their bases covered. Have them rape and pillage for your benefit, then turn them over to the enraged masses to show that you are for reform and make things better.
if they do not stop the semi-smart amoral people for the benefit of everyone
If they think they are true insulated from the less-smart marks, perhaps they don't care. Everyone only matters if you are part of everyone. Perhaps, they know/think they aren't anymore.
I guess this begs the question of where the smart amoral powerful people are, if they do not stop the semi-smart amoral people for the benefit of everyone
Because, in reality, they all are only semi smart primarily differentiated by their overestimation of themselves.
That's exactly the kind of thing I used to think when I was your age. I had a great faith in the inherent worth and sweeping power of intelligence per se. 30 years later, I've moved on to a more limited notion. Even 'bounded rationality' strikes me as optimistic, sometimes.
Why?
The cream of the crop manipulate the system and live on top.
Isn't that obvious?
The lie is that they are all nice people willing to lend you a helping hand, right?
Look up the former reichsmarshall's quote about living on top.
The rich are just like everybody else, just a little smarter, but their grandchildren usually are no smarter than the average, and prove it by regressing to the mean.
Ivanka Trump is an exception, Paris Hilton is the rule.
yagij
You found the flaw in my optimism. I was hoping the smart and amoral people wouldn't endorse crime because they really didn't need that much more money since they made enough money and they just didn't want others to interfere in social happiness. Maybe the semi-smart amoral people priced them out of contentment and the smart amoral people are just teaching the semi-smart amoral people a well deserved lesson by playing the puppeteer
I was hoping the smart and amoral people wouldn't endorse crime because they really didn't need that much more money since they made enough money and they just didn't want others to interfere in social happiness.
"Had some business dealings with Sun in the late nineties. Found their business development people really, really unpleasant. Microsoft, in surprising contrast, was very straightforward."
Thanks for your comment kcoop. I appreciate all you do to keep us all coherent and in line.
Okay, CR, you just might be proven right after all, i.e., perhaps D.C. will nix an extension of the tax credit. If so, I will eat my words that "economist" Mark Zandi is the White House's economy czar. (Mr. Zandi has been insisting that D.C. has no choice but to extend the credit; Mr. Zandi is one of BHO's favorite advisers.) On the other hand, in ending the credit, D.C. would have simply substituted one housing program for another, the latest being the administration's commitment of many billions of dollars (up to $35 billion, the last I read) to go to state and local housing agencies to provide mortgages to low- and moderate-income families. Of course these days most of us are low-income, if not no-income. We must remain mindful, however, that an extension of the credit remains a possibility until Senator Johnny Isakson sings. After all, how can one argue with Senator Isakson's heartfelt plea that "failure to extend the popular tax credit would lead to 'a dramatic and awful situation in the United States of America.'" Who could disagree, in that any such failure would violate government's obligation to fund wasteful programs.
excuse me,Maxedoutmama
this ga person agrees with you isakson is a joke but im not laughing and im not stupid i know why hes so anxious to get his little tax credit out there.
Gabyjean - it's not the public who is normally fooled. It's the media. How many times do you read some article about a person obviously talking their own interest in advocating a stimulus proposal - and how many times is there ANY background or analysis of the statements?
There is a reason why blogs such as this one have such a dedicated following. People really want that background and analysis.
What's bad is that the politicians listen to the media and not to their own constituents.
A select few around here have noted my comments and are aware of my identity- but they are only lurkers. It is amazing how many people are not brave enough to make significant comments out of fear.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Fearing to make comments and enter the debate is stupid. I know I am unusual in commenting using my full real name, but I have yet to face any serious consequenses from any comments I have made (ok, our median relations guy didnt like some of the swipes I have taken at people like Larry Kudlow and Denis Kneale, but part of his job is to get me to be a guest on their shows as often as possible). So come on people, don't be afraid and speak out.
Since when does the White House's opinion count for anything?
Congress has written all of the bills by itself so far...
so go out and buy
NOW!!!
(then we'll increase it later)
lol, just like all the other unpopular spending that has been approved. I still give it a 50/50 chance, and only so low because you don't buy the same votes twice
Without a tax credit I will have officially been priced out forever. No
for me. Just 
so how much money are FNM and FRE going to get to execute HAMP? $200bn by January?
Tax Credit DOA? WTF? IDK IMHO.
Any bets on an Obama veto of a renewal of the tax credit?
He'd be just as likely to veto a renewal of the Voting Rights Act.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
I'm definitely doing a HAMPster dance when it happens.
How far down this path do we have to go before someone realizes that the problem is the government spending at all levels? Common sense is just not all that common.
EHP, the thing that kills me is how many stories label it a "popular tax credit". I bet an overwhelming number of Americans oppose the extension of the credit ... it is popular with the 2 million home buyers who received a gift, and the real estate industry ... and apparently scammers! But that is about it. Oh wait, lobbyists are making a fortune.
I put it at 90% for a six month extension (no expansion).
best wishes
Yeaganomist wrote:
It's only common sense if you're not getting spent on.
Can you sell the car? Or turn it down? Some politician musta had the brown acid.
"so how much money are FNM and FRE going to get to execute HAMP?"
Saw your question on the last thread, to be honest, I have lost track of how much each of them have borrowed, but most estimates are they are going to need it all, whatever "all" was ($200B each I think?).
The "losses" on HAMP won't be broken out separately from all their other losses, the initial losses for holding below-market-rate loans will just kill their NIM, and the ultimate default losses will just be thrown in the bucket with the rest of them.
I think somebody pissed off the wrong folks. Stealing from the Treasury is one thing, but stealing from the IRS is quite another-
this really IS a
Well, it's got to be more popular than bankster bailouts and bonuses.
TIGTA (Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration) has suggested to Congress that they allow the IRS to treat misstatements of claims for the FTHC as a "math error" which allows the IRS to change numbers on the return proactively and force the Taxpayer to defend it before there is any refund rather than after.
http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d091026.pdf
Cinco-X wrote:
why do we even bother levying taxes anymore? why not just print and borrow? the chinese don't seem to mind.
It was a joke. No one really proposed this ...
best wishes
Sure the White House will mumble about the cost. But Congress will extend the credit and Obama will sign it. No doubt in my mind. If they don't keep the property values up more underwater home owners will walk, banks will have to take losses, CDOs will have to be paid out, pension funds will lose income.
The guy with the mod. He is a renter, at below market rent, until his payments go up. Then he is gone.
I think the government should pay for my kitchen remodel as a stimulus. They can bail out cabinet makers, counter-top makers and flooring makers all in one shot! Everybody wins!
CR,
You left out the" /snark at the end"......right?
My rant got pigged:
It's all fake. Our eCONomy is a big fat lie. I stopped playing the charade a few years ago. And it's now far worse than ever.
Last year banks were going belly-up. A few accounting rule changes, a TARP, some printing and low and behold banks are wildly profitable again.
Yeah right. Unemployment has increased, foreclosures are still soaring, credit card defaults are rising, CRE laons are defaulting like mad, 15% of AMericans are at the poverty level, 12% are on food stamps, 20% of income is from government transfers, aggregate private income is down 5% in two years, net national savings are negative 3%, government debt has ballooned.....
And yet, banks are flush. At least the important banks.
it's all a big sham.
Another tiny economic indicator. The waiting room at the vet's yesterday was full. People are still caring for their pets, as opposed to, say, eating them. But there was a sign on the wall that said credit would not be extended, due to abuse (of the credit, presumably).
Here is the tally so far, $96B in preferred equity.
Feds Spent $1.2 Trillion to Keep Fannie, Freddie, Others Afloat in FY 2009
Maybe the total was $200B for both? I will look it up.
Cinco-X wrote:
Sound like a good plan for GM to propose.
picosec, that seems like a reasonable request (math authority for the IRS). Otherwise we are going to get scammed for a couple billion.
best wishes
Aren't the current fraud investigations for 2008? Those would be the returns filed using the credit.
In 2009 many more properties were bought. Wonder what the IRS will do with tripple the number of investigations that need to be done?
I'm personally waiting for home values to fall and subsidy values to rise.
We're nowhere near the sweet-spot yet.
EDIT: and on that happy note, I'm off to supper. L8R.
Yes ... I added "a joke" to the post. Sorry - I thought this was very funny ...
best wishes
Hu drew the line on spending?
CalculatedRisk
Rasmussen had a poll that surveyed support for housing bailouts, and then contrasted it with the estimated number of negative equity homeowners. The more successful the programs are, the less support they have
black dog wrote:
Who?
"The guy with the mod. He is a renter, at below market rent, until his payments go up. Then he is gone. "
Yup, as I said last thread.
Not just payments going up. Extraordinary repairs, the need to move, etc.
Put yourself in that situation. You have an effective LTV of 180%. Are you going to put more money into that place? What if a pipe bursts?
I would suspect the guy walks within a year.
the whole program is just pure stupidity. Let the guy file BK and have a judge decide whether or not he gets a principal reduction.
noob goldberg wrote:
Supper?!
Angry Saver you might have already seen this but
Wall Street's Naked Swindle : Rolling Stone
Jess Cafe is were I saw it 1st
wait until the foreclosed homeowners under this plan get the $8000 tax bill from the IRS for not staying in the house for 3 years
The funny part is that policy is so crazy right now, the joke was considered a possible plan. And by funny I mean sad.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
It was; unfortunately, it also sounded like something a Michigan Congressman like Dingell might try-
most of the folk are smarter than me, but I'm gonna go ahead and say it
the credit will be renewed and extended to 15,000 and widened for eligibility
and they'll pat each other on the back and puff mightily on their cigars
let's get on with the looting. it has to be much much worse before it gets better
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Courts can not, yet, reduce principal on an owner ocupied property. Rentals, vacaiton homes, CRE yes, the place you and your family live - nope.
This is basically cash for clunkers without the wheels
All the WH mumbling is probably foreplay to get the lobbyists to do more.
"“hey, this proposal is no dumber than Isakson’s, and in fact it helps kill two birds with one stone, so to speak!”"
Actually... I like this idea better. Expand it to a 15k discount on an American made car. You know, force a 'twofer' purchase and I'm there!
Joke or no joke, its a better proposal that $15k for a home alone. At least making them take delivery of a US built vehicle has a purpose...
Hmmm... even better in areas where homes are cheap (< $100k).
Got
?
Neil
so brazil is the latest country to intervene in the currency markets, albeit with fiscal measures. this is getting interesting. one economic crisis after another.
Think the IRS will get their 8K back? It will be forgiven, for the sake of the struggling "homeowners" and the kids. Otherwise, turnip meet needle.
Okay, my evil self says, Kill the tax credit.
But that is so I can do some more damage on my heloc lines to get them to deal and say uncle.
Nothing like pursuing cramdowns with the desperate bankers-
That HAMP doc set was hilariious.
Nothing like drip drip drip of continuous losses.
I can hardly wait for the housing market to finally bottom in 2013, at this rate, maybe 2014.
Someday this war's gonna end...but first I have to settle debt at pennies on the dollar like I promised Tanta I would!!!!
volker the viking wrote:
That's what the people who have been voting for Ralph Nader for the last 20 years keep saying. And look how they get treated.
punch biopsies for turnips?!
REBear
Why do I see a guy with roses and jewlery asking congress out to dinner.
If RE looks wobbly in the spring, they might do the 15k extension to all comers, which would make more people like it. Everybody is saying "where's my bailout?" and this is one way to appease the rest of the homedebtor class. I'll bet the paperwork has already been drawn up by Chuckie and Barney.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Here's a link to the survey
BTW, how do you define a "successful" program?
jo6pac,
Thanks for the Rolling Stone Link. Someone here linked to it a few days ago, but I never had a chance to read it.
No, this cannot be! I was counting on a $25K tax credit for my leap back into the housing market!
The fraudsters trying to claim the credit are being pretty crafty. They use stolen identities and file a return claiming the credit. They have the credit direct deposited to a prepaid card they purchased. The IRS processes the credit and transfers the money to the prepaid card account and the fraudsters are gone. The IRS is so screwed up, they have no way to verify the return before sending the credit out. Once they review the return, they send the taxpayer whose identity has been stolen a deficiency notice. The fraudsters may file a hundred or more returns.
Luckily, most of the prepaid card processors are onto the fraud and if they see multiple deposits by the IRS to the card accoutn they freeze it and return the funds.
Huh. Getting an early start on election season. The ad on the bottom here is "Help Pat Toomey beat Arlen Specter next November."
Let's assume FNM/FRE buy 500,000 mortgages out of the MBS pools. at an average par value of $250k which is probably on the low side given that these loans have penalties. That's $125bn, and HAMP trials finish up by year end I think. I forget what their minimum capitalization is, so maybe it won't be huge. They might even have enough budget slack to avoid requesting more money for weeks. oh the fun in store should nominal yields ever rise
ShortCourage wrote:
Good news! 2010 is an election year
Basel Too wrote:
See my comment in regards to how this mechanism plays out. Any and all comments welcomed.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Name one.
One interesting aspect about the homeless tent-city I visited today...
Everybody seemed to have purloined a shopping cart, their 'wheels', if you will.
The ad on the bottom here is "Help Pat Toomey beat Arlen Specter next November." "
I have two political ads and one for "where's My Bailout"
The IRS is so screwed up, they have no way to verify the return before sending the credit out. - T
Bingo. Need any more evidence that TPTB are clueless incompetents?
scone wrote:
There are a couple things they do well, both of which have their own uniform.
The Fed's secretly buying mortgage-backed securities is disgusting. Any notion of a capitalist free market rewarding success has been exposed as absurd. Time to remove the dome from the teapot full of toxic slime.
We're talking trillions.
Basel Too
Don't forget the proposal for Japan Post to move out of JGBs and USTs, towards lending at higher rates (overseas, or domestically where it encourages growth)
"oh the fun in store should nominal yields ever rise "
Or just THEIR nominal yields.
Who is going to buy their debt once Bernanke stops?
Someone will, but not at today's spreads.
IIRC, Pimco just got out of a bunch of MBS. So somebody bought them. Who would be likely to buy that shit?
Cinco-X wrote, "Good news! 2010 is an election year"
That's true, but realistically I believe re-election and re-enrichment is the top priority of our fearless leaders, year in and year out.
From that Reuters story, Donovan must be lying:
How can that possibly be true when you look at this chart...
- NY Times
There are 20% delinquencies after 1 1/2 years, for both 2007 and 2008. And rising on a straight line.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Who or what is going to make Bernanke stop? Is it not pretty much "game over" if he does, as rising interest rates and treasury yields and falling home prices, put an end to the bankers ponzi dreams?
Here's one for you gold-bugs:
Tennessee cops may have some gold for your cash. The Nashville Police Department is auctioning a confiscated "set of custom made teeth grills," with the proceeds of the sale earmarked for the Police State Drug Fund.
On the bright side, Obama and Bush Jr will collect their pensions for another 30-40 years.
I imagine they have a generous COLA.
volker the viking wrote:
They were trashed by the Democrats for "allowing" Bush to beat Gore. Specifically in Florida. The "Progressive sites" were all over these people for at least 4 years. Many of them tho, said the reason they voted for Nader was specifically BECAUSE they thought the Democrats were as corrupt as Republicans, but allowing Bush to trash the country would finish it off faster. Didn't exactly work as they intended, but you have to give them a A+ for effort.
Here comes(and goes) the Sun, after about a decade of decay. Microsoft (and IBM and HP ) wins! Who knew this would be the eventual outcome while working a brand new Sun Solaris sparc II workstation in the early to mid 90's? I guess Bill Gates did! Oh well , ten years from now, we will say the same thing about the almighty $, I suppose. May be sooner.
Sun cutting up to 3,000 jobs as awaits Oracle deal - Yahoo! Finance
Blackhalo wrote:
I mentioned this a week or two ago; it's the new [un]reality-
Nemo wrote:
That last line should read...
Goldman Sachs has written all of the bills by itself so far...
Fixed now I do believe.
Take a bite out of crime.
Definitely off topic and let me apologize in advance. I feel that it is not only interesting but pertinent to the general discussion of our economic policies. I apologize to Nemo for using his comment to bring this to your attention.
This is a quiz. What do the record-high Wall Street bonuses have in common with the record-low yields for savers? Answer: They show yet another way that prudent people, especially those living on fixed incomes, are being cheated by the government's bailout of the imprudent.
To view the entire article, go to Allan Sloan - Uncle Sam's gift to the prudent saver: Less money - washingtonpost.com
scone wrote:
The Chinese?
No, wait... the Arabs?
The Brazilians?!
Africans?
Jonathan wrote:
Good lord those curves are scary. 30%+ delinquencies for 2006 and 2007! If 2008 is already > 20%, than 2009 must be near 10% already...
We're about to go PLAID!
Got
?
Ammo?
Neil
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
The tax credit is mostly welfare for banks.
When you can't tell that absurd proposals from the albeit understated CR are jokes, it's getting even more ridiculous. The idea that deregulating big public banks would be good for anyone but big bankers was ridiculous from the beginning, of course...
Yes, I'm starting to think that some well OTM puts on ohhhh,say WFC and BAC might be my Christmas present to myself.
Those share prices have to fall sometime.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
We are all irony-impaired now.
"Who or what is going to make Bernanke stop? Is it not pretty much "game over" if he does, as rising interest rates and treasury yields and falling home prices, put an end to the bankers ponzi dreams?"
Tru dat. I really don't think he will stop, despite what he says. The guy is a liar - he says he is not monetizing the debt, at the same time his minions buy debt. He says he will slow down MBS purchases, when he doesn't slow down at all.
His claim that he will stop buying agency debt and MBS in March is just another lie. He can't stop.
This will just add to the cost of the HAMP program, as the taxpayer will be forced to fund these monsters through even more monetary inflation.
sm_landlord wrote:
Take Won-A-Day for all your iron-y needs.
San FRANCISCO> can you save a world of energy addicts?
How 'bout a state of addicts?
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Sun Microsystems Inc. plans to eliminate up to 3,000 jobs as it awaits a takeover by Oracle Corp., a deal that is being held up by antitrust regulators in Europe.
The layoffs Sun outlined Tuesday in a regulatory filing amount to about to 10 percent of the company's 29,000 workers and will happen over the next year.
They are the latest rounds of cuts at the struggling server and software maker, which reached the $7.4 billion deal with Oracle in April after nearly a decade of wobbly financial performance.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Nice allusion to the Teapot Dome Scandal
Irony isn't worth a bucket of warm piss.
"Good lord those curves are scary. 30%+ delinquencies for 2006 and 2007! If 2008 is already > 20%, than 2009 must be near 10% already..."
Not just scary, immoral.
Any government that knowingly puts its people in debt where they know 30% plus will default is an immoral government.
So it's on par with the dollar.
Cinco-X wrote:
His staffers are already copy & pasting away - ready to attach to all and every bill as an amendment. Lobbyists benefiting better hit the tip jar that's all I got to say...
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Didn't you mean "capitalist system"?
"Didn't you mean "capitalist system"? "
What's capitalist about putting people into debt at 30% default rates? Answer me that. Tell me what a lender would charge if they knew default rates would be 30%? tell me what lender today is offering 3.5% down mortgages and keeping the credit risk themselves?
Only our government is offering those kind of credit terms.
That is not capitalism, it is debt-slavery, Fascism style.
Could you still get a liar's loan in Truth or Consequences, NM?
Hey give us a 15k tax credit each for cars, and the hub and I will both go
out immediately and buy one.
True,but the ( true value of the) bucket increases in value relative to how many Red Bull's you drank while stuck in your car during rush hour.
broward wrote:
Any government owned by capitalist forces that knowingly puts its people in debt...
There. Integrated that for ya.
Gosh, ghost, I kind of remember corporations doing the subprime loans but maybe I'm wrong here.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
In what WAS a democracy, that means that at one time this is what "the people" voted for. Survival of the fittest, dudes!!!! The smartest amoral scumbags win, exactly as "the people" wanted.
1959: Capital-based, capitalist system.
2009: Debt-based, crapitalist system.
I would like to congratulate CR for being so out front and accurate and persistent in getting this issue right.
You will never know how much "national opinion" is swayed by one blogger and blog.
But it can be done. What you have seen is a lot of the opinion bigshots using words and figures very similar to CRs to argue his position in higher place.
I take that back. There is no higher place than CR.
Or, have a lottery and give 60k cramdowns to one out of 4 delinquent owners,
and reimburse the bank!
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Exactly; Capitalism can be based on the premise of laissez faire, where private individuals and businesses may freely use means of production to make profits through the exchange goods and services without intervention from the State
If the state is running the show, it's no longer a capitalist system.
Diane Rheem (Rhiem? Reim? Ream?) of NPR had a thing on reviving newspapers.
I wondered why? I read it first on CR anyway. Hardly read newspapers at all.
Don't watch as much tv.
Yeah, no "editor" edits us, but so what. We are delighted to real time jump on
each other and challenge mistakes.
rich wrote:
No one ever suspects the butterfly
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Yeah but buyers are not putting anything down that is not covered by the credit and it all likely ends up on the FHA/Fed books, so it is just an exercise in keeping inventory off the market for a short period of time, for the banks benefit.
rich wrote:
One word: sycophant-
Edit; it's not that I disagree.... I just wouldn't say it out loud-
Sun was the Ferrari of computers. Sad to see them go.
lawyerliz wrote:
Lotteries would be more fair, have less administration, and offer a bigger impact for the same amount of spending.
smartypants-Ben favors renting a helicopter to drop money directly into bottomless pits
Every economy throughout history has been managed. It's a matter of degree.
Sun is long gone. You are all lamenting a division of Oracle. You might as well shed tears over HPs destruction of Apollo.
Rob Dawg wrote:
I thought Sun bought Apollo- no?
Nice reference EHP!
No One Suspects the Butterfly: About that title...
Actually, I would argue that CR is quite influential, and the commentariat here is now monitored for that same reason.
Anything ridiculed here should be quickly dropped, as the savvy folks stick forks in obvious holes.
Notice C4C died after a good skewering here and elsewhere?
The fact this is more reality based and less partisan improves the quality of the analysis.
This is the RAND corp led to the web and turbocharged- with the exception of the market calls- Keynes had that right indeed.
Someday this war's gonna end...
What a lovely scam!
Speed wrote:
IRIX? AIX? I can't really call them the Ferrari of computers. They may be the last brand standing, but there were good, efficient quality UNIX platforms too.
Citizen AllenM wrote:
What did happen to the C4C energy? Cash 4 Appliances anyone? Why has the C4* died on the vines?
Looks like YHOO is another top line contraction with an increase in profits...
Yep, I got the Toomey ad.
Sun was so much smarter than Apollo. Back in mists of the late 80's, a computer science department I attended was flush with a giant grant, and anxious to get their sticky mitts on a big pile of shiny workstations.
Apollo refused to discount, but Sun, taking a play from the DEC playbook, was willing to discount, knowing that probably several years of students would be ready to specify Sun hardware when they inevitably made it into a buying position.
I've never even seen an Apollo, but Sun pizza boxes and discs are everywhere.
energyecon wrote:
There sure seems to be a lot of that going around. I wonder how much of that bottom line is paid out of future earnings...
speaking of lotteries
It looks like the jackpot frenzy peaked around 2006/2007 just by looking at it
Jackpot History - LottoStrategies.com Jackpot History - LottoStrategies.com
probably 07/08 in Canada
Liz, if everyone had an extra $15k to spend, so long as it had to be spent on a new car, what do you think would happen to the price of new cars?
Citizen AllenM wrote:
No argument there; it's interesting how CR came out about the absurdity of the $8k tax credit, and it slowly became a meme in the blogosphere and then the MSM. That said, it's better without the fawning. I don't think (though I certainly can't speak for him) CR needs that sort of "Validation".
)
BTW, do really think the commentariat is monitored? I have a hard time taking myself that seriously- (I know I'm setting myself up with that one- fire away
Well if we use insider selling as a yardstick...lots...
CalculatedRisk wrote:
"If you are not stealing from the state, you are stealing from your family."
yagij wrote:
Because some smart-ass pointed out that these incentives just pull activity forward, and unless you plan to keep it up, you crash when it is over.
LL,
I think your congressperson cut me off in traffic tonight. They drive a Ford Hybrid which is very American of them
I thought you got a mod AllenM?
Cinco-X wrote:
The blog is. I wouldn't be surprised if people don't read/skim the comment section too. /. is frequented by higher ups in the tech world so why would CR not attract people to its world? Its breadth and knowledge for its cost is unmatchable IMO.
Exactly...you nailed it. Now flash forward about 5 years...CS student wants access to a real OS, not what Apple and MS are pushing. Guess what? Sun costs an arm and a leg. Everyone in class uses Microsoft or Apple. McNealy and Co. forgot the lesson.
Cinco-X wrote:
Yes.
And Krugman has provided the evidence over the last couple of years.
Others have also provided significant signs of influence from here.
But Tanta's passing noticed in the NYT was the final confirmation.
A select few around here have noted my comments and are aware of my identity- but they are only lurkers. It is amazing how many people are not brave enough to make significant comments out of fear.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Blackhalo wrote:
No, I mean why did the politician let it die. I know why we thought it was a bad idea.
This blog can't be that influential. I am not a world famous doom author.
Is this being done with an understanding that a dollar collapse is inevitable?
Jonathan wrote:
I interviewed at Sun way back. The big problem there (or so I've heard) was that folks eventually stopped working and essentially took up dealing coke full time. I remember that I had the interview, and the interviewer insisted on following me back to my car and seemed to be trying to keep me from leaving. I was later told he was waiting for me to give him some coke in exchange for the job. It was really creepy to me. Sometimes you get that with unrestrained success and growth. Visual Technology had a similar story.
Had a weird one @ the supermarket today. They had Progresso soup with $1.50 off coupons attached to the can, but the soup was only $1.48.
I 'bought' 25 cans, free is underrated.
lawyerliz wrote:
The flaw in your plan is that if such a tax credit were to be made available, the auto industry would enact an across-the-board 15K price increase on every single vehicle model.
We already know the Fed reads this blog, so I wouldn't be surprised if some staffers dug into the comments too.e.
The WH, Treasury and Fed should run some of their trial balloons through here so they can be thoroughly vetted before getting Congresspeople and their lobbyists all giddy.
Yes you are. That's why you were cut off.
Waiting on the paper- it is not real until the paper shows up and gets signed- besides, I have a rental property to cramdown next and some other debt to boot.
All in good time.
They will all get there turn in the barrel.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Nation shrugs off "Atlas Shrugged".
Meme peaked in 1st Q, 2009.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=atlas_shrugged
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
In Soviet Amerika, soup lines up for you!
Hey, if the Feds are reading this, how about making the day after Thanksgivng a holiday too ?
you didn't push DOW 70k!!!
Lol!
Doom would have to have Lahaye overtones- not nordic mythos;-}
Get your market straight;-}
Someday this war's gonna end...
Cinco-X wrote:
If corporations are running the State, is it still capitalism?
You guys are hilarious.
You're in such denial like I never saw except for the housing bubble.
You wanted to own EVERTHING IN THE UNIVERSE without interference and you got wish.
Enjoy the fruits, dude.
A wrecked country where nothing ever works right again.
Cinco-X wrote:
It's sad when the parasites kill the host. I'm sure there is an analogy to economics, but I can't quite put my finger on it....
Hey, all you "influential" smart amoral scumbags reading this.. Yeah, I'm talk to YOU. I got your next stimulus right here, buddy.
What did you say? Are you talkin' to me?! Are YOU talkin' to ME?!
I think the recent appeal of "Atlas Shrugged" was it's dual purpose.
It's a chilling foretelling of events currently from 52 years ago, and it doubles as a doorstop.
There is nothing wrong with smart + amoral people. It's the semi-smart and amoral people you have to worry about
NostraRandus.
Isakson is most definitely a joke.
Before any individual Congress Critter should be ceded credibility, print space or air time on these issues by the media, I suggest the media review the foreclosures in their home state. Take a look at Georgia's, and then you see why Isakson is hell-bent on this policy.
If a state is dumb enough to permit this to develop, that doesn't mean that other states should be dumb enough to try to bail them out.
Critters from CA, NV, AZ, GA and FL shouldn't be allowed to dominate this debate.
I think "Atlas Shrugged" is like the bible. A lot of people own it, but most have never read it all the way through.
nova may well be world famous, but what he really means is that he's not rich yet.
broward wrote:
I liked your post in regards to why TA predictions work. I think it was in regards to SOA (?), but the basis was the waves were predictable as was the overall trend. Interesting nugget to help pull information out of the blobby mass of data that is the internet, website, etc.
Hey, if the Feds are reading this, how about making the day after Thanksgivng a holiday too ?
Make it a bank holiday. Let's get all the fraud out in the open.
Has anyone ever actually read all or more than a page of John Galt's speech?
I think "Atlas Shrugged" is like France.
Every American has a very strong opinion about France & the French, although most have never been there.
Irony has always been the satirist's "get out of jail free" card:
I have complete faith that Mr. Paulson and all other GS alumni in the US Government have always acted 100% under the law for the the sole interest of the American taxpayer.
The Fed's program of buying private MBS to quantitatively ease credit is capitalist genius. Dollar hegemony benefits the rest of the world.
I mean it literally, Senator Inquisitor.
And if they raised the price too much, I wouldn't buy, assuming
Congress totally loses their minds and passes such a thing.
And no, I haven't noticed that the 8k has raised prices here any
in beautiful South Florida.
Citizen AllenM wrote:
I would say it is wise to be afraid of others vindictiveness.
broward wrote:
Yeah, it's "capitalism" when the pure Ayn Rand acolytes are running things. But, when the unregulated normal-human smart amoral scumbags do what any self-respecting smart amoral scumbag SHOULD do - which is screwing people using the power of the government - then, magically, it's NOT capitalism.
Another case of the theoretical “ism” people being unable to comprehend the law of unintended consequences when it comes to THEIR favorite idealistic fantasy “ism”.
An "ism" that can’t regulate the smartest amoral scumbags ends up with the smartest amoral scumbag winning. Which is where we are now.
me too, yogster.
Meeeeetoooooo.
Liz takes off
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
yogi, you're making $1.75tn sound like it's a big deal
John Galt's speeches are yawners. Francisco's are the ones to read.
Agreed. The money speech is great. And true.
Why don't we apply the 15k tax credit only to American made RV's (maybe boats w/ cabins as well)? Kill 2 birds with one stone-housing and transportation.
Every American has a very strong opinion about France & the French, although most have never been there.
Reminds me of the lines in that old song: Well I've never been to England, but I kind of like the Beatles.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Not sure about THAT. Because, the semi-smart should be at a some disadvantage to the smart + moral people. Unless morals are really THAT debilitating.
I've wanted to build a website where you have a map with all the congressional districts. You hover over one, it shows you the representative and the demographics/economy/major employers etc. You click on the congressperson's name and it takes you to a page with all their major PAC donations and a google news/search history of "congressperson's name + fundraiser".
Of course, all this information is available, but having it in one place may actually encourage people to learn about what the possible biases of each politician could be. However, it probably somewhat exists somewhere, and I'm just too lazy to look for it or build one and have no technical skillset (I'm in FIRE).
broward wrote:
Exactly. +1 for the man hangin' out at the pool hall!!
I would say it is wise to be afraid of others vindictiveness.
Wall St. doesn't seem to share your opiniion.
lawyerliz wrote:
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Morals can be quite debilitating if you believe that others have them in the same way that you do.
Famous last words: "How could they do that to me???!?!?!"
lawyerliz wrote:
yes.
"People are still caring for their pets, as opposed to, say, eating them."
Not much meat on a cricket.
alybaba wrote:
OpenSecrets.org: Money in Politics -- See Who's Giving & Who's Getting
?
Yawns
Good promo for the new Frontline starting tonight 9pm Eastern...
FRONTLINE: the warning | PBS
This should knock it into some heads that all this giant mess was preventable, and we have all been robbed.
Angry Saver wrote: Every economy throughout history has been managed. It's a matter of degree.
That is true, but how an economy is managed has a lot to do with outcomes. Controlling risks (especially aggregation of risks) is a useful regulatory function. Dictating solutions generally has not been.
So, for example, there is a world of difference between requiring banks to keep high reserves in a risky environment, basically illegalizing scam products, demanding disclosure of OTC med ingredients, and banning certain relatively toxic OTC meds in opposition to requiring that all stores carry aspirin, or that all doctors prescribe aspirin, or legislating bank spending or product provision directly. I am uneasy that Congress is pushing government mortgages on people at prices that private lenders won't generally provide.
Eliminating the worst risks and making other risks controllable via mandating visibility seems to both be a necessary government function and one that leads to more long-term stability. Trying to impose a solution on an economy directly often seems to miscarry.
Have we learned from our recent misdeeds? I suspect not. Isakson, in particular, ought to have been laughed off the national stage long before now. The reason he hasn't been is because too much recent policy impetus has been directed at propping up home policies; thus his proposals are really only an extreme case of a generally accepted solution of the problem.
NCIS awaits.
It's not too late to bring every single mortgage which is late
current, thus ending all foreclosures--for a while. And wasting
less money? While people still imagine it's worth something.
lawyerliz wrote:
Yes. Well, not read, but listened to as part of an audiobook. I found out later, to my horror, that the reading was actually an abridged version.
"Francisco's are the ones to read."
El Caudillo?
smart people transcend what you identify as morals. they see the end game. it's not about the result of the actions, but the possible responses to their actions by others.
the semi-smart can only see a few steps ahead and leave a turbulent wake.
smart people rob the bank without anyone ever knowing that bank was robbed
semi-smart people rob the bank, and expect they are smart enough to avoid ever being caught. even if they do get away, it is not the smartest way to rob a bank
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Blah blah blah works great when everybody in society are above average and moral.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Smart folks can convince you to loan them money without having to ask for the loan and without you realizing that you had an option to decline.
Had some business dealings with Sun in the late nineties. Found their business development people really, really unpleasant. Microsoft, in surprising contrast, was very straightforward.
dryfly wrote:
To borrow the line from a song:
You've got to stand for something, or you will fall for everything.
They want a piece of me, they can get in line behind my wife.
Or, why bother? After all, I am not worth billions, only have one vote, and notice the emperor not only had no clothes, but was dancing in the streets drunk, and nobody ever even made a threatening call. America is still the land of the free to vent and rant.
Someday this war's gonna end...
"...but not to serve your life or pleasure.-- John Galt"
Yes, if everyone were to serve his own life and pleasure everything would be peachy keen.
When the SU fell someone in my landlady's kitchen in Moscow launched a tirade at me in which he assured me that if everyone in Russia were simply to mind their own business it would all turn out right. So then we got the rule of the mob.
alybaba,
2 starting points
OpenSecrets.org: Money in Politics -- See Who's Giving & Who's Getting
Search the Congress Merge database of congressional members
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Oh. Like Calculated Risk.
Wasn't Ayn Rand Greenspan's GF at some distant point in the past?
alybaba
One would think that the Federal Election Commission and State Election Commissions would put together something like that, as you describe, and promote vigorously.
Not all that interested in dullards, quite frankly...
Rob Dawg wrote:
HA! Yeah, THEY should US in charge. Well, me, not you of course...
This is no longer about managing an economy. It's at a stage of looting
lawyerliz wrote:
Me too-
scone wrote:
More like he was her willing slave and scutboy.
Cinco-X wrote:
You like men sanding their boats in the basement too?
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
And it is impressive.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
It's cute the way you pretend "they" will have a choice and you can have a say in the pecking order.
broward wrote:
When I was in college [late 70s - early 80s] I was fortunate to hang out with BOTH Ayn Rand libertarians and Marxist socialists... different circles but I was accepted in both [who knows why]... denial is a common theme out on both tails of the argument.
Great story - I was building a touring bike at a co-op [non-profit bike shop]... you could go there, rent a bench, use their tools and build or maintain a bike from the parts you bought from them. Great deal.
So anyway - I ask one of them how I can 'join'... they say 'you can't join - its a co-op and you get nominated & voted in then you are allowed to work here'. I was confused - I thought it was like a food co-op where you paid to join, volunteered to do some work and got a great discount... they say 'nope - its a workers co-op...members get paid to work here... proceeds from the enterprise get divided up according to how many hours you work'... only those who are nominated & voted in by the other co-op members get to work here.'
So I say... "I get it - its like a small business and you all are the owners!" They almost threw me out on the street right then and there - bike unfinished... 'WE AREN'T NO $#^&! CAPITALIST SMALL BUSINESS!!! WE ARE A CO-OPERATIVE - GET IT STRAIGHT!!!'
Okay - won't bring that one up again.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
I agree. So.... I'm not sure what you meant then by you have to watch out for the semi-smart. I'm generally not too worried about the semi-smart amoral scum-bags, they'll eventually get caught. It's cream of the crop of that I"m worried about.
M.O.M.,
I don't disagree with anything you are saying. I was merely making a simple comment for all the uber-anti government free market types to think about.
In my view, to what ever level a Gov't is involved in an economy, that Gov't should strive to eliminate any economic privilege stemming from the Gov't itself. We do just the opposite. Bailouts, the Military Industrial Complex, Laws written by special interest groups, loopholes you can drive a truck through, favorable tax rates, Gov't financial guarantees, etc. None of that is in the common good.
oh come on, no one really believes in the book atlas shrugged
it's completely silly to imagine a giant god holding up the earth on his back. Holding it up from what? Why not just set it down on the floor. Why can't we see this giant, or the floor. How does the sun make it onto the earth with a giant in the way, how do satellites orbit?
Whatever happened to Jas Jain.....
Angry Saver wrote:
EXCEPT for the smart people writing the laws. Which means it's inevitable. Assuming you've got a society where smart people are attracted to money and MOST of the money happens to be in public corporations and government. If I were smart, that's where I'd be.
Objectivism seems to have gone out of fashion-- got 33 hits in news.
objectivism - Google News
JD: Big Pharma wants you eating that soup, prolly subsidized it.
$100/month for anithypertensives.
scone wrote:
Does it get you billions in bonuses?
the smart amoral people aren't going to try and bleed a stone, the semi-smart amoral people will. I guess this begs the question of where the smart amoral powerful people are, if they do not stop the semi-smart amoral people for the benefit of everyone
REBear wrote:
Waiting for 2.5% Treasuries to return triumphant.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Does John Williams (the other one) orchestrate this?
He's on Linkedin,
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Many times the Smart Amoral People (SA) hire the Semi-Smart Amoral People (SSA) to do their dirty work for them. Then when they need a scapegoat or sacrificial lamb, they got their bases covered. Have them rape and pillage for your benefit, then turn them over to the enraged masses to show that you are for reform and make things better.
lawyerliz wrote:
THAT'S RIGHT! it's tuesday night. i need to get home.
Cinco-X wrote:
But the new NCIS-LA is kinda sucky. I'm a Ziva, McGee and Abby Fan. Tony Dinozzo is sooo tiresome.
Doc,
I knew there was a trick. There is no free soup.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
If they think they are true insulated from the less-smart marks, perhaps they don't care. Everyone only matters if you are part of everyone. Perhaps, they know/think they aren't anymore.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Because, in reality, they all are only semi smart primarily differentiated by their overestimation of themselves.
That's exactly the kind of thing I used to think when I was your age. I had a great faith in the inherent worth and sweeping power of intelligence per se. 30 years later, I've moved on to a more limited notion. Even 'bounded rationality' strikes me as optimistic, sometimes.
YouTube - Stranglers - No More Heroes
All the Shakespearo's...
RE wrote:
Yes, THAT will be the big question. And the answer will be known - for sure - only by the next few generations.
Why?
The cream of the crop manipulate the system and live on top.
Isn't that obvious?
The lie is that they are all nice people willing to lend you a helping hand, right?
Look up the former reichsmarshall's quote about living on top.
The rich are just like everybody else, just a little smarter, but their grandchildren usually are no smarter than the average, and prove it by regressing to the mean.
Ivanka Trump is an exception, Paris Hilton is the rule.
Someday this war
yagij
You found the flaw in my optimism. I was hoping the smart and amoral people wouldn't endorse crime because they really didn't need that much more money since they made enough money and they just didn't want others to interfere in social happiness. Maybe the semi-smart amoral people priced them out of contentment and the smart amoral people are just teaching the semi-smart amoral people a well deserved lesson by playing the puppeteer
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Too much is never enough.
"Had some business dealings with Sun in the late nineties. Found their business development people really, really unpleasant. Microsoft, in surprising contrast, was very straightforward."
Thanks for your comment kcoop. I appreciate all you do to keep us all coherent and in line.
test
Okay, CR, you just might be proven right after all, i.e., perhaps D.C. will nix an extension of the tax credit. If so, I will eat my words that "economist" Mark Zandi is the White House's economy czar. (Mr. Zandi has been insisting that D.C. has no choice but to extend the credit; Mr. Zandi is one of BHO's favorite advisers.) On the other hand, in ending the credit, D.C. would have simply substituted one housing program for another, the latest being the administration's commitment of many billions of dollars (up to $35 billion, the last I read) to go to state and local housing agencies to provide mortgages to low- and moderate-income families. Of course these days most of us are low-income, if not no-income. We must remain mindful, however, that an extension of the credit remains a possibility until Senator Johnny Isakson sings. After all, how can one argue with Senator Isakson's heartfelt plea that "failure to extend the popular tax credit would lead to 'a dramatic and awful situation in the United States of America.'" Who could disagree, in that any such failure would violate government's obligation to fund wasteful programs.
excuse me,Maxedoutmama
this ga person agrees with you isakson is a joke but im not laughing and im not stupid i know why hes so anxious to get his little tax credit out there.
angry
what about the day after christmas?
callous
always go for the unabridged audio books. they are the best.
Gabyjean - it's not the public who is normally fooled. It's the media. How many times do you read some article about a person obviously talking their own interest in advocating a stimulus proposal - and how many times is there ANY background or analysis of the statements?
There is a reason why blogs such as this one have such a dedicated following. People really want that background and analysis.
What's bad is that the politicians listen to the media and not to their own constituents.
MOM
i agree with you on this dead thread.
Citizen AllenM wrote:
Fearing to make comments and enter the debate is stupid. I know I am unusual in commenting using my full real name, but I have yet to face any serious consequenses from any comments I have made (ok, our median relations guy didnt like some of the swipes I have taken at people like Larry Kudlow and Denis Kneale, but part of his job is to get me to be a guest on their shows as often as possible). So come on people, don't be afraid and speak out.
as an aside, here are the two posts I wrote today for Zacks: Inflation? What Inflation?
Starts and Permits Disappoint