The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices fell 3 percent in August from July, bringing the market’s decline to almost 41 percent since its peak in October 2007,
The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices fell at a continued 40% annual rate in August from July, bringing the market’s decline to almost 41 percent since its peak in October 2007
CR,
JP Morgan is advising clients on a 24% rise in UK RRE in the next 3 months. Stop being so gloomy, the bottom has passed, and if you wait too long you'll be priced out forever while all the smart people get rich by repeating the mistakes of the last set of stupid people
Fact #5. The single biggest new facility is the Fed’s purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). This massive operation began on January 7 of this year with only $10.2 billion. Now, just nine months later, the Fed has bought up a cumulative total of $924.9 billion, the largest money infusion by any central bank into any single market sector of all time.
So what is happening to the loan on these properties? Unlikely most owners had much equity, right? So they are taking a 40% haircut and doing what?
Use it as collateral for a 10% haircut at the Federal Reserve? Reduce loan loss provisions to record a profit? Go along with the HAMP and hope the FHA chooses the loan for refinancing? Sell it to any stupid buyer that comes along?
Lots of options
If the banks are insolvent and don't hold the rights to kick out millions of delinquent voters, then they're in trouble.
There is an alternative. Buy up some construction firms and shut them down. Probably be wildly unpopular. It would put some employees out of work.
People always get more upset over specific identifiable job losses with a clear cause than generalized losses with a vague or uncertain cause. Well, unless it's _____________(insert reviled top executive's name here).
WestSac_grrl (profile) wrote on Mon, 10/19/2009 - 3:06 pm reply Ignore user pigged again
U.S. launches aid for state, local housing agencies
The federal agencies said the program will not be paid for by U.S. taxpayers but will be financed through fees paid by the state and local housing agencies.
Does it surprise anyone that despite these massive surpluses of most kinds of structures we are still building government structures in many places?
Really, what is the cost comparison between making a new library and renting out some nearby former office or retail space? I'll bet you could buy appropriate building in many places, and be moved in within a few months. The same pattern often repeats for schools and government offices.
There is an alternative. Buy up some construction firms and shut them down. Probably be wildly unpopular. It would put some employees out of work.
That was in effect the idea behind 'freedom to farm'... pay them a one time fee to go subsidy free... didn't work so well. Took the money and then didn't go subsidy free. Conservatives discovered their policies & ideas were as susceptible to 'regulatory capture' as are liberal ones. Hoocoodanode.
Gov. Black of the Atlanta Fed. takes a defeatist attitude in saying that the US must accept a lower standard of living and that the “load of debt around our necks” is the root of the problem. Contrast this with President Hoover's optimism: “Any retreat from our American philosophy of constantly increasing standards of living becomes a retreat into perpetual unemployment and the acceptance of a cesspool of poverty for some large part of our people.” Can Gov. Black really say going into debt has been a net negative for the American people? “Has there been any greater blessing than the building and loan associations which have lent billions of dollars to millions who would never otherwise have had the means to build.” Homeownership has stimulated people's desire for the other comforts of life, resulting in activity and progress; the fact that some excesses have taken place doesn't negate our whole course. “Governor Black says that what is needed in American business today is not confidence but courage. But surely courage lies in going forward, not backward. The American emblem is an eagle not a crab.”
12th Percentile: "So what is happening to the loan on these properties? Unlikely most owners had much equity, right? So they are taking a 40% haircut and doing what?"
Watch CALPERS. They hold a huge bag of ruh roh. This will have to be picked up the the locals.
“We can’t call a bottom at this point, but it’s an encouraging sign to see the deceleration in the decline,” said Connie Petruzziello, a Moody’s analyst and co-author of the commercial property price report.
The deceleration in the decline! That's a good one.....
Well they need to come down more dangit! I'm gonna rent out a place in town for my new Unemployed social club. How am I going to afford it with only a measly 41% drop in prices on an unemployed salary? It's going to be where all the unemployed hang out to bitch and complain. What do you guys think? Do I have a business model here? I could sell fountain drinks and make a killer profit but as I was saying it all depends on rock bottom CRE prices!!!
EHP - we are coming dangerously close to oil topping $80, and this is without the international crisis you predicted would be necessary to force oil above that level...
any thoughts (current ongoing crisis not included )
It's going to be where all the unemployed hang out to bitch and complain
You don't want them bitchin' n complain' f2f. It gets messy. Better to have them doing it over the internet. Much safer. But, you are right about the pricing thing... tough market to make money in.
You don't want them bitchin' n complain' f2f. It gets messy. Better to have them doing it over the internet. Much safer. But, you are right about the pricing thing... tough market to make money in.
Biggest problem is the market is already taken & saturated - its called 'Starbucks'...
Top estimates based on slashing costs and with substantially reduced revenue in most cases! What happened to "The Street" looking for revenue growth or at least not falling off a cliff? Who's buying!!??
Yea thats why I would only sell fountain drinks, No alcohol. I guess for now the internet and starbucks has most of my would be target demographic on lock. I'll just wait it out. In the mean time I will be checking out the foreclosures next to the city unemployment office.
Thank the gods that Hoover was vilified for 25+ years after his presidency.
A poster-boy for being in the wrong place at the wrong time; he actually was quite progressive. The Big O will probably endure the same fate when President Palin is elected in 2012 and helps turn the economy around after 4 disastrous years of stagflation and over-regulatin'.
tncubsfan
Truthfully, don't rely on me for investing advice. I don't have the time to follow the details. Today's action was within the realm of possibility. Maybe some weekend orders were placed with the goal of triggering S&P500 orders which understandably were clustered around 1100. Central banks don't intervene on Mondays from what I know. It's earnings season and unless you are big and do insider trading, you're at more risk than usual. I think the rally has run out of legs, and it will be selling the news regardless. It's easy for me to say because I'm not exposed to much short term risk at all, but I'm not backing off from the view that the doom train has started. It's right next to the rally train, and the people on the rally train just think their train is the one on the move
The short term gamblers. Why not buy? Buy, and peel-off the winning. Don't get greedy and be willing to lose (say) 50% of what's left at any give time.
12th Percentile
In a spike, below $30.
Steady state, ~$50.
the longer the timeframe, the more uncertain those numbers are because of the unstable denominator, but they're good for now
JP Morgan is advising clients on a 24% rise in UK RRE in the next 3 months.
For precision, JP Morgan is advising clients on a 24% rise in UK property stocks in the next 3 months, not necessarily on the value of the UK real estate itself. See:
"Gov. Black of the Atlanta Fed. takes a defeatist attitude in saying that the US must accept a lower standard of living and that the “load of debt around our necks” is the root of the problem."
Bull chit! Gov Black......I have been responsible with my money, I do not have a "load of debt" around my neck. It is the banks and the government that prodded them to loan money to those who couldn't pay off the debt that should be suffering the burden of this, quit stealing my money to prop up these "too big to fail" businesses and rewarding them for poor decision!!!!!!!
When is the US going to tell the rest of the world that we don't have the money to pay them back nor will we in the future? If they ask why, tell it's called the Marshall Plan and it's payback time for protecting the world for the last 100 years and making it safe for democracy. Please don't try to tell America that it's standard of living will have to go down. If Americans find out that the Fed has been secretly selling off ther assets to foreigners, all hell will break loose and the financiers who did this will pay a terrible price. The hogs get fat and the pigs will get slaughtered.
It's right next to the rally train, and the people on the rally train just think their train is the one on the move
So, if the doom train left New York at 11:40 am and the rally train left Washington at 12:15p and both are traveling at the speed of light, where would they pass each other and how fast would the trains appear to be going to the people on the other train?
This just in. Researchers find way to clone and duplicate adults without lengthy process of growing up and education. Government and banks find way to provide clones with housing and credit.
I'm not relying on anyone but myself for my investing strategy, don't worry. I did feel like something would happen today, if not today then soon. There is no way this rally can go much longer. However, I always remember "the markets can remain illogical longer than you can remain solvent"
DCRogers
that makes more sense, I was thinking of stocks in terms of supply of
even still, that is extremely dubious given the 102% rally since March, and that they compare it to a rally in the early 70s where the index composition would have been very different in real terms
suggesting a 24% increase in 3 months for any asset class, it should be incumbent upon them to explain in detail the rationale
That report was more a of a joke than Andrew Garthwaite at Credit Suisse saying X will go up because X has gone up, 2 weeks in a row in different reports
This isn't the tech bubble. There isn't even the illusion of increased productivity.
If they ask why, tell it's called the Marshall Plan and it's payback time for protecting the world for the last 100 years and making it safe for democracy
Ok, but if you tell them we're not going to pay them back, they won't lend us any more money, and your standard of living WILL fall. The trick here is to look strong and humble at the same time. Zen like.
If you don't owe any money, you are debt free and don't need any loans. All the globalists will sheeeeet in their pants. Globalists have no respect for countries, sovereignties, country borders, nor the people in the countries. Globalists are basically people w/o a country.
The move is the latest attempt by the Obama administration to prop up the faltering U.S. housing market, by restarting a source of financing for first-time and low-income homebuyers that has all but dried up.
Hmmm... kinda sounds like more government sponsored bad mortgage loans to me.
oil is up $15 in less than a month. Even if you believe that it's just a financial asset like any other, you have got to be skeptical of at what price the last greedy grasp for return is
I'm not exactly sticking my neck out there on this one
Not sure about that one - the wealthiest, most prestigious and powerful university west of the appalachians might disagree.
I can't find the source at the moment, but I know that no one would release his biography until the 1950s because of the stunch bitterness people held against him. The wealthy might have liked him, but family lore spoke of great & great-great grandparents spitting and cussing just at hearing his name. I'm amazed that there weren't bedtime stories to scare kids into eating food or going to bed because of him.
If you don't owe any money, you are debt free and don't need any loans.
I'm likin' this idea. The US "declares" itself debt-free. Everybody in the US "declares" themselves debt-free. In fact, everybody in the entire world "declares" themselves debt-free. Everybody who is owed money - Hu included - is poop out-o-luck. We're all rich again.
What is the lag-time between the casino oil prices and the pump price the peasants pay?
It varies by competition in any given fuel market, but gas pricing is received by a dealer every day m-f. It's usually just a day or two that you'll see a price increase, esp. after a big run-up in oil prices. It's usually a waiting game to see who blinks first in raising prices at the pump.
In fact, everybody in the entire world "declares" themselves debt-free. Everybody who is owed money - Hu included - is poop out-o-luck. We're all rich again.
So much savings is in the form of debt I doubt people will feel very rich if it suddenly gets wiped out.
I'll have to e-mail back and ask. Sounded like to other big offices of the bank for bankers, or other European financial centers for Hedge Funds. A combination of tax + regulation fears, with the insurance of the slow-moving bankruptcy of the UK to make it the right choice
Einhorn bets on major currency 'death spiral'
Major institutions should be broken up if necessary, Greenlight manager says Explore related topics
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Greenlight Capital is betting on the possibility of a major currency collapse and a surge in interest rates, the hedge-fund firm's manager David Einhorn said Monday, citing ballooning government deficits in some of the world's most developed countries. Einhorn bets on major currency ‘death spiral’ - MarketWatch
Noticing something odd on the eBay front again.
.
1 oz lots of USD pre-1964 coins are cheaper than 1 oz silver eagles. Also, the difference between a 1oz bar and round v. 1 oz silver eagle has narrowed to the point that shipping is the only thing that might separate the cost. Where as last year, pre-1964 coins seemed to carry a premium of 11-15x face value, silver sovereign bullion was cheaper, and the spread between bars/rounds & sovereigns could easily be upwards of 2-4 USD/oz.
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Anyone else noticing oddities in these kind of trader/retail markets for PMs?
If you were a really smart amoral scum-bag where would you go right now? I'm thinking China.
China and other hyperbubble economies like those in Latin America. We might even see powerful new bubbles in places like Eastern Europe, the Middle East and the satellites orbiting larger planets like Jupiter and Saturn.
If you were a really smart amoral scum-bag where would you go right now? I'm thinking China.
China kills the amoral scum-bags who land on the wrong side of the law, and the Chinese have been taking it to raw material exporters like Australia and scrap metal dealers. They cause their own problems, and if push comes to shove, I would not want to be caught in that part of the world when things sour.
I've been reading Martin Armstrong's essays, and he strikes me as a later-day Edmond Dantes, of sorts, a guy that used to move mountains with his words and held audience with the most important people in the world, now clumsily types out masterpieces for everybody to read, from his roost in the all-bar motel.
China kills the amoral scum-bags who land on the wrong side of the law
Well, it goes without saying that smart amoral scum-bag ALWAYS follow the "law". The "law" is usually just making sure the smarter amoral scum-bags are just getting a piece of your action. But, fear of death has a way of focusing the mind, which should make the smart amoral scum-bags even MORE competitive and successful.
...fear of death has a way of focusing the mind, which should make the smart amoral scum-bags even MORE competitive and successful.
I think you give the smart amoral scum-bags too much credit. If the smart amoral folks always won, you would never have governments collapse, businesses fail, and aristrocrats overthrown.
This coin site is nice because they show the latest pricing on pretty much a daily basis. A lot of other sites you have to call them to find out or to place an order. Just FYI.
Bloomberg - American International Group Inc., [AKA THE AMERICAN TAXPAYER] the insurer bailed out by the U.S., extended an additional $2 billion in credit to its plane-leasing unit that is unable to borrow from its usual sources of funding.
I don't think so; American tobacco is the worlds best for cigarettes. I think that Caribbean tobacco may be best for cigars, but I don't know for sure-
Terry
They are the biggest buyer of Boeing which is a big buyer for GE and United Technologies, and the biggest provider of planes to airlines based in America
It would be mean to stop the spending now
They seem to be good for bulk purchases, but it takes quite a few coins/oz of silver to average out a S/H/Insurance charge of 24 USD. I used eBay in my reference because it is the only place I know sans shows and local shops--if you have them--that sell coins and bullion. eBay is showing me 22 USD for bullion or coins and 21.99 USD/oz for pre-1964 coins. Your example would have me out 43 USD just for a single coin (Great deal for bulk buys if they accept CC tho)
.
APMEx is another good site, but they hate on CC users--for obvious reasons.
China kills the amoral scum-bags who land on the wrong side of the law...
Can foreign born amoral scum-bags join 'the party' just like native born Chinese can? If so pretty much no-problemo... just make sure to share the skim w/ fellow apparatchiks - and all will be fine.
They've been trying to sell ILFC for a while too (I have a pitchbook from Nov 2008 put together by Blackstone, Moelis and MS right next to me). We figured no one would touch it unless gov't backstop debt was part of the sale.
If the smart amoral folks always won, you would never have governments collapse, businesses fail, and aristocrats overthrown.
Well, there are set-backs for individual smart amoral scumbags (SASs). But, somebody always wins during those extraordinary times, proving THEY are really the SASs. This SAS thing is really just my cheap philosophy of life that lets me off the hook for being less-than-smart, lazy, or having some other personality defects – as I can just say: “Oh, those SAS’s always win in the end anyway”. It sound better, I think, than just blaming Ben, or the liberals, or Bush, etc.. SAS is more inclusive of all the worlds scum, regardless of race, political ideology, and sexual orientation.
just like native born Chinese can? If so pretty much no-problemo...
If they are anything like the Japanese--few peoples are--then nope. You never break through the honne-tatemae boundry. Maybe the Chinese are different. They have had moments when they did allow foreigners into areas of influence (e.g. Qing), but not others.
yagij (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 10/19/2009 - 4:31 pm replyIgnore usertncubsfan wrote:
Just FYI.
They seem to be good for bulk purchases, but it takes quite a few coins/oz of silver to average out a S/H/Insurance charge of 24 USD. I used eBay in my reference because it is the only place I know sans shows and local shops--if you have them--that sell coins and bullion. eBay is showing me 22 USD for bullion or coins and 21.99 USD/oz for pre-1964 coins. Your example would have me out 43 USD just for a single coin (Great deal for bulk buys if they accept CC tho)
.
APMEx is another good site, but they hate on CC users--for obvious reasons
Yeah, you've got to order enough to make the shipping worth while. Today the Silver Liberty was like 19.74 USD. I order some now and again but order like 12 or 15 at a time to cover the $24 s/h/ins.
Well, the smart amoral scum-bags don't want to BE part of any "society" or "governemnt". They just want to pillage it. Who need a nation now? Why be in politics when you can just purchase the politicians.
These are banksters moving from London to China. They aren't MOVING to China, just looting it for as much as they can and then skipping town.
They are the biggest buyer of Boeing which is a big buyer for GE and United Technologies, and the biggest provider of planes to airlines based in America. It would be mean to stop the spending now.
That is another business ready to go tits up - who needs planes when fewer and fewer are flying? Its like CRE with wings.
Gannett, the newspaper publisher that reported plummeting ad sales and subscriptions?
up 8.15% today, 540% since its lows in March
Manitowoc, the crane company that tried to diversify by going into restaurant equipment last fall then had to sell its marine unit to pay the bills
up 8.26% today, 370% since its lows in March
did the market ever look this rotten during the dot.com bubble?
I just read Paul Krugman's new book, The Return of Depression Economics.
The book is really thin on detail and greatly oversimplifies economics. That's fine. What's significant and not fine imo is that Krugman espouses what all failed policy makers espouse after their policies fail. Namely, inflation via printing. No joke. That's what Krugman recommends - printing and inflation.
Why is it that Krugman and other eCONomists are always in such hurry to devalue real savings in an attempt to re-inflate the value of fraudulent credit? At this point, it's hard to call economics a legitimate profession. It's more akin to voodoo, a big CONfidence scam.
Has it ever occurred to Krugman that inflation is theft and that founding an eCONomics system on theft is immoral and unstable? Don't even get me started on the problems created by exponential inflation growth.
Greenlight Capital is betting on the possibility of a major currency collapse and a surge in interest rates, the hedge-fund firm's manager David Einhorn said Monday, citing ballooning government deficits in some of the world's most developed countries.
Einhorn bets on major currency ‘death spiral’ - MarketWatch
Unlike Japan, the United States isn't past the point of no return, the fund manager stressed. However, he criticized financial-reform proposals pushed by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, arguing they provide a government backstop for the largest institutions, entrenching them further. **
Hey whadya know....Texas Instruments beat analyst estimates. I'll bet my left n*t that Apple does the same, although I guess with Apple they have something people with no money want to buy
They aren't MOVING to China, just looting it for as much as they can and then skipping town.
Like a plague of locusts, they gotta stop eventually. They get eaten if they do, die from exhaustion if they don't, and might live to see mating season if they play their cards right. Rather apt comparison of the current situation if you think about it.
Inflation is no more theft than your house becoming less valuable is theft. I would benefit from a good round of inflation in the U.S., so I'm in favor of as much printing as you can get. You are obviously on the other side, but please don't try to extend your own self-interest into a sense of moral outrage.
Reading comprehension is a bit of problem for you, then...
.
Greenlight has been buying physical gold this year because Einhorn is concerned that efforts to save the financial system and fuel economic recovery are undermining the value of such currencies as the U.S. dollar.
On Monday, he said Greenlight has added new trades to this investment theme, buying long-dated options on much higher interest rates in Japan and other developed regions -- effectively giving the firm the chance to make big profits from a jump in rates. The options, bought from major banks, are tied to interest rates four to five years out, Einhorn noted.
Has to be Stanford - can't possibly be UC - early last century maybe but not since say 1960
As far as schools of economics go, The U of Chicago has been preeminent for some time, and the Sloan School has been on the outs.
Oops! Didn't catch the Hoover meme-
Cinco-X, Mericans can't afford American grown tobacco, it's called THIRD Tier Tobacco grown in friendly countries like Pakistan or United Arab Emirates, and I'm not talking several brands, I'm talking hundreds of brands. My friend who reps for an American third tier tobacco company told me today they were hanging by a thread or puff.
" And "live better with less"? Jeezz, what are the top 15% going to be doing during this bucolic time in history? Knitting? Unless they fix this.... We pretend to work - they pretend to pay us... they better start learning about pearl one knit two. "
Good call -- except they already are knitting. Knitting is EFFING EXPENSIVE. Serious knitting is for the privileged classes; you can easily spend $30 for a ball of yarn; good "cheap" wool will run you 6-9 a ball; only take 15-20 for a sweater. Cheaper to buy retail, has been for decades. Even crap acrylic yarn that wears out quickly is $2.50-$3.50 a ball.
If you've got no cash you either buy the acrylic crap or haunt the thrift stores for old wool sweaters you can rip down for the yarn.
No I don't knit, but my wife is serious about it, teaches classes, and is always trying to find ways to make it cheaper for low-income knitters. But she figures it's a losing battle.
Later that spring, the Hoovers returned to California to live at their home in Palo Alto. Hoover enjoyed the return to the men's clubs he had long been involved with, including the Bohemian Club, the Pacific-Union Club, and the University Club in San Francisco.
"Texas Instruments beat analyst estimates. I'll bet my left n*t that Apple does the same, although I guess with Apple they have something people with no money want to buy"
Apple blew away estimates, and blew away last year's results.
You are so right about having something people with no money want to buy - everyone and their dog has an iPhone.
You are obviously on the other side, but please don't try to extend your own self-interest into a sense of moral outrage
Wouldn't the question be, however, does inflation as a government policy benefit the majority of society?
(I know, I know... a question that in REAL society would cause a burst of hysterical laughter amongst the smart amoral scumbags that own the government, but just for fun... Assuming the government was looking out the majority of its "citizens").
Take a look at this video from the summer of 2003. At the 4 minute and 10 second marker, a man who was nourished and received only the best that his country has to offer states that "the purchasing power of our employees, our people, our workers is far more important than what it is we produce". This, my friends, is one of the most incriminating acts of treason that any person who has a country that he calls his own could ever make. To him, debt does not matter just as long as it is not his own personal debt. This man is the personification of a globalist. YouTube - Rep. Bernard Sanders vs. Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan
Cinco-X, Mericans can't afford American grown tobacco, it's called THIRD Tier Tobacco grown in friendly countries like Pakistan or United Arab Emirates, and I'm not talking several brands, I'm talking hundreds of brands. My friend who reps for an American third tier tobacco company told me today they were hanging by a thread or puff.
Well then, I even more glad I quit smoking back in '94-
haven't looked at apple
but ipod sales were down
and don't forget they recognize certain payments over an amortized period (iphone subscribers, warranties, ...)
I'm sure they did well, but their margins are going to slide. Serious computer competition from Sony and Dell, windows 7 too, and apple historically does at least adjust their pricing to stay current with exchange rates. Blackberry and Google are catching up to the iphone in the multimedia/apps department
they have loads of cash, and probably a new tablet coming out in the next 6 months, but they have had their fat years and there should be some lean ones ahead
Corporations are globalists. The people that own & run global corporations are globalists. Why worry about just Ben, he's just doing what best for business. That's who owns the US government, the lobbyists of global corporations. Been this way for 40+ years, way too late to worry about that NOW.
and fwiw
the #1 growth driver of their computer sales was gains in market share, beginning with university/college market. Might not have happened everywhere yet because of campus computer stores signing multi-year exclusivity deals, but the cheap/small netbooks have taken over
46.3% of the population is working.
58.8% of the population over age 16, not institutionalized, and not in the military are working
(including part time)
Zimbabwe errs on the other side. However there's a pretty wide range between the hyperinflation in Zimbabwe and a moderate level of inflation that would cause the dollar to fall in value to a more reasonable level.
*CUPERTINO, California—October 19, 2009—Apple® today announced financial results for its fiscal 2009 fourth quarter ended September 26, 2009. The Company posted revenue of $9.87 billion and a net quarterly profit of $1.67 billion, or $1.82 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $7.9 billion and net quarterly profit of $1.14 billion, or $1.26 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 36.6 percent, up from 34.7 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 46 percent of the quarter’s revenue.
Why not buy? It's not a market, it's a casino. If you don't play with the free government money, you'd be a fool (assuming you've got the governments loot). Why not double down.
Obviously the real problem of the 40% off rests with the new construction and the properties bought from 2004 and on. And all the refinanced properties where owners took out cash for further CRE investment. So, that means 90% are screwed and the banks with those loans are screwed. The margins are mighty wide these days and those at the margins have nothing but bad debt, bad properties, and bad futures.
I can't, it's blocked at my zombie bank. But, why is there any talk about "globalists" at this point. Globalism happened OFFICIALLY 10 years ago. Companies have been outsourcing jobs for 30 years. We're at the end game now, the post-game show of globalism. They won.
In reviewing the status of the market late last week, the condition of the data was something of an anomaly in that regard. On the valuation front, stocks are presently overvalued, but to levels that we've observed at least several times in history. The anomaly relates to market action, where we can no longer find a single historical instance where stocks were more overbought on the combination of short- and intermediate-term measures we respond to most strongly. Indeed, only one instance comes close, which is November 28, 1980.
I really like Hussman. He seems both smart and honest -- kind of rare for the industry he's in.
Read the linked article from an earlier thread from Martin Weiss concerning Bernanke's actions and their consequences. I would like the actions attributed to Bernanke to be henceforth referred to as actions taken by the Federal Reserve. Bernanke is a bit player in this tragic comedy and the actions he is directed to take by his shareholders should be shouldered by the entire corrupt federal reserve system that the large banks control. Bernanke's title should be spokesperson. A little tired of the change the figurehead to fool the citizenry game.
The Fed is now directing their spokesperson to warn the Federal govt that they now need to rein in the deficit to promote dollar stability and rectify global imbalances. My translation is the Fed realizes they will need some more huge inflows into the banking system to cover CRE losses, continued consumer defaults and since the credit worthiness of the USA is now in question it would behoove the govt to save the limited future credit to support the TBTF banks. The interesting dynamic happening here is the conflict between the various sectors that have become wholly dependent on income streams from the govt to survive. Too many piglets fighting for teats are starting to eye the fattest piglet as an impediment to their survival.
Lobbyists competing for limited funds is making for interesting politics. This friction is being exposed across the board from the factions in the health care reform, the dissension in the Chamber of Commerce, regional banks against the TBTF(aka Federal Reserve shareholders), and local muni's vs state vs federal. The winnowing down is forgetting the people that make the system run, you and me and our productive endeavors from which the taxes are derived. The fundamental failure of the power structure to realize the need to create jobs and support small business is the primary cognitive dissonance in this crisis/collapse. Our elected representatives have to be waking up to this fact and if they have any doubt of their failure in leadership then the overwhelming reality is becoming abundantly clear as the mirage of green shoots reveals only empty sand.
I haven't given up on my country. I fervently hope that there is enough of our leadership that still feels some patriotism and loyalty to the citizens that elected them. I expect decisions going forward that start focusing on jobs over bailouts and transparency over manufactured illusions. There is simply no other acceptable choice.
I guess he may be the exception that proves the rule
Naa.. didn't somebody on here post the article about this being (mostly) an New York vs everybody else problem. NY meaning Wall Street. There's lots of financial people that aren't in on this scam that have no representation either.
the #1 growth driver of their computer sales was gains in market share, beginning with university/college market. Might not have happened everywhere yet because of campus computer stores signing multi-year exclusivity deals, but the cheap/small netbooks have taken over.
I live in a college town and have gone to three coffee houses this week. Everywhere that white apple is glowing at me from the back of black or white MacBooks. I don't even see that many Dells around; college kids still like Macs as multi-media machines.
The only netbook I've seen in public around here belonged to a man of nearly retirement age.
I know lots of knitters that hunt for old sweaters to repurpose. Same with old wool blankets and sheets for sewers. Most people I know who do this are under 40. The only folks I know who are still big consumers of expensive craft items are over 55 yrs old. Kinda says a bit about comsumption patterns in the US, yes?
the falling dollar is supposed to help exporters, not MNCs who are simply reporting numbers from overseas operations, with no intention of repatriating those foreign earnings...
I'm starting to wonder if under arrest = keep under protective custody. Too many people out there who would swerve if they saw these folks trying to change a tire on the side of the road.
hey, I like that - the "globalism post-game show;" it is like the football guys breaking down the games on Monday morning, "Well, if the defense hadn't gotten caught in a nickel formation, then they could have brought more pressure .." etc. etc.
-but with the crucial difference that the people arguing politics and economics don't understand that the game is over, and the final score has already been recorded. The poli-sci and econ crowd think they can still affect the outcome of the game while they are watching the wrap-ups and highlight show!
pigged again
U.S. launches aid for state, local housing agencies
| Reuters
How long until some subidy program makes CRE prices go up?
The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices fell 3 percent in August from July, bringing the market’s decline to almost 41 percent since its peak in October 2007,
The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices fell at a continued 40% annual rate in August from July, bringing the market’s decline to almost 41 percent since its peak in October 2007
There. Fixed that for ya.
Can't we just pay people not to build?
I pray we leave Nicholas Cage et al on the last thread. I don't need to be confused by which peak is more upsetting to my stomach...
CR,
JP Morgan is advising clients on a 24% rise in UK RRE in the next 3 months. Stop being so gloomy, the bottom has passed, and if you wait too long you'll be priced out forever while all the smart people get rich by repeating the mistakes of the last set of stupid people
some investor guy wrote:
WOW! This has REAL potential! Like paying farmers not to grow food. I'm am TOTALLY lycin it! The graft potential is HUGE!
So what is happening to the loan on these properties? Unlikely most owners had much equity, right? So they are taking a 40% haircut and doing what?
A nearby strip mall is being razed. Hopefully, they'll build another one just like it - and raze it again.
Fact #5. The single biggest new facility is the Fed’s purchases of mortgage-backed securities (MBS). This massive operation began on January 7 of this year with only $10.2 billion. Now, just nine months later, the Fed has bought up a cumulative total of $924.9 billion, the largest money infusion by any central bank into any single market sector of all time.
Bernanke gone berserk! Bank reserves explode! | Money and Markets: Free Investment Email Newsletter
Speed wrote:
Brilliant. Almost as good as the "defense" industry's business plan.
This has to be good for my SRS, right?
12th Percentile wrote:
Use it as collateral for a 10% haircut at the Federal Reserve? Reduce loan loss provisions to record a profit? Go along with the HAMP and hope the FHA chooses the loan for refinancing? Sell it to any stupid buyer that comes along?
Lots of options
If the banks are insolvent and don't hold the rights to kick out millions of delinquent voters, then they're in trouble.
12th Percentile wrote:
You're only bankrupt if they say you are.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Commercial conservation reserves... maybe we can even hunt deer on them.
some investor guy wrote:
Do you "really" want to open THAT can of worms?
New business opportunity , CRE FOR SALE billboards. Local landscape littered with signs.
Speed wrote:
Reminds me of having to dig and refill holes when in the Army. "Private, you dug that hole in the wrong place! Move it over there!!!!!!"
Cinco-X wrote:
There is an alternative. Buy up some construction firms and shut them down. Probably be wildly unpopular. It would put some employees out of work.
People always get more upset over specific identifiable job losses with a clear cause than generalized losses with a vague or uncertain cause. Well, unless it's _____________(insert reviled top executive's name here).
Moody's is on their.
Banks Tell Traders To Keep Attacking The Dollar
Banks Tell Traders To Keep Attacking The Dollar
Keeps the men from contemplating mutiny
WestSac_grrl (profile) wrote on Mon, 10/19/2009 - 3:06 pm reply Ignore user pigged again
U.S. launches aid for state, local housing agencies
The federal agencies said the program will not be paid for by U.S. taxpayers but will be financed through fees paid by the state and local housing agencies.
SIG: "How long until some subsidy program makes CRE prices go up?"
When the gov subs the rent.
Speed wrote:
At least keeps them armed with primitive weapons if they did try to mutiny.
Does it surprise anyone that despite these massive surpluses of most kinds of structures we are still building government structures in many places?
Really, what is the cost comparison between making a new library and renting out some nearby former office or retail space? I'll bet you could buy appropriate building in many places, and be moved in within a few months. The same pattern often repeats for schools and government offices.
some investor guy wrote:
That was in effect the idea behind 'freedom to farm'... pay them a one time fee to go subsidy free... didn't work so well. Took the money and then didn't go subsidy free. Conservatives discovered their policies & ideas were as susceptible to 'regulatory capture' as are liberal ones. Hoocoodanode.
Friday October 17th, 1929 source
12th Percentile: "So what is happening to the loan on these properties? Unlikely most owners had much equity, right? So they are taking a 40% haircut and doing what?"
Watch CALPERS. They hold a huge bag of ruh roh. This will have to be picked up the the locals.
Roots of non-negotiable?
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Thank the gods that Hoover was vilified for 25+ years after his presidency. I can only hope such a future is in waiting for Dubya and O.
I love this analysis of the situation:
“We can’t call a bottom at this point, but it’s an encouraging sign to see the deceleration in the decline,” said Connie Petruzziello, a Moody’s analyst and co-author of the commercial property price report.
The deceleration in the decline! That's a good one.....
Well they need to come down more dangit! I'm gonna rent out a place in town for my new Unemployed social club. How am I going to afford it with only a measly 41% drop in prices on an unemployed salary? It's going to be where all the unemployed hang out to bitch and complain. What do you guys think? Do I have a business model here? I could sell fountain drinks and make a killer profit but as I was saying it all depends on rock bottom CRE prices!!!
Hoover didn't get us into 2 dead-end wars, to his credit.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Amazing. That German dude was right, it's all just: "The eternal recurrence of the same".
OT
EHP - we are coming dangerously close to oil topping $80, and this is without the international crisis you predicted would be necessary to force oil above that level...
any thoughts (current ongoing crisis not included
)
shill wrote:
Blodget built an organization that was completely full of shit around 1999. Why would anyone believe his new org now?
biochemist wrote:
You don't want them bitchin' n complain' f2f. It gets messy. Better to have them doing it over the internet. Much safer. But, you are right about the pricing thing... tough market to make money in.
JP wrote:
Maybe based on the "it takes one to know one" theory?
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Biggest problem is the market is already taken & saturated - its called 'Starbucks'...
EHP-
I put everything I had into short selling the market based on your vision of a Black Monday today! What do I do now?
montas ankle
I think it is ridiculous, and even more money will be lost. Oil will be going down
EHP -
Hope you know I was kidding.
Just for fun, EHP, how far down do you think it will go?
Stocks rise as earnings reports top expectations - Yahoo! Finance
Top estimates based on slashing costs and with substantially reduced revenue in most cases! What happened to "The Street" looking for revenue growth or at least not falling off a cliff? Who's buying!!??
I too know oil will be going down
when i too do not know
I also know oil will be going up
market timing is a fool's game
Yea thats why I would only sell fountain drinks, No alcohol. I guess for now the internet and starbucks has most of my would be target demographic on lock. I'll just wait it out. In the mean time I will be checking out the foreclosures next to the city unemployment office.
Obama issues short-term program to boost home buying
Initiative seeks to help low-income families purchase homes or find rental units
White House has program for first-time home buyers - MarketWatch
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Given the sensationalistic headlines over there, I would worry more about the "leopard changing his spots" theory.
yagij wrote:
A poster-boy for being in the wrong place at the wrong time; he actually was quite progressive. The Big O will probably endure the same fate when President Palin is elected in 2012 and helps turn the economy around after 4 disastrous years of stagflation and over-regulatin'.
Another interesting post from Jesse.
Jesse's Café Américain: The US Needs to Get Less Competitive
tncubsfan
Truthfully, don't rely on me for investing advice. I don't have the time to follow the details. Today's action was within the realm of possibility. Maybe some weekend orders were placed with the goal of triggering S&P500 orders which understandably were clustered around 1100. Central banks don't intervene on Mondays from what I know. It's earnings season and unless you are big and do insider trading, you're at more risk than usual. I think the rally has run out of legs, and it will be selling the news regardless. It's easy for me to say because I'm not exposed to much short term risk at all, but I'm not backing off from the view that the doom train has started. It's right next to the rally train, and the people on the rally train just think their train is the one on the move
yagij wrote:
Not sure about that one - the wealthiest, most prestigious and powerful university west of the appalachians might disagree.
tncubsfan wrote:
The short term gamblers. Why not buy? Buy, and peel-off the winning. Don't get greedy and be willing to lose (say) 50% of what's left at any give time.
12th Percentile
In a spike, below $30.
Steady state, ~$50.
the longer the timeframe, the more uncertain those numbers are because of the unstable denominator, but they're good for now
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
For precision, JP Morgan is advising clients on a 24% rise in UK property stocks in the next 3 months, not necessarily on the value of the UK real estate itself. See:
FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » That carpe diem (property) rally
The University of Texas?
Nah, they don't like him much there, either.
Eric wrote:
I look at the burned-out, pathetic, cinders of mine and think: Goldman Sachs MUST have been on the other side of that trade, somehow...
Bull chit! Gov Black......I have been responsible with my money, I do not have a "load of debt" around my neck. It is the banks and the government that prodded them to loan money to those who couldn't pay off the debt that should be suffering the burden of this, quit stealing my money to prop up these "too big to fail" businesses and rewarding them for poor decision!!!!!!!
Is our toothpaste made in China and tobacco consumed in US grown in Pakistan? Go figure.
When is the US going to tell the rest of the world that we don't have the money to pay them back nor will we in the future? If they ask why, tell it's called the Marshall Plan and it's payback time for protecting the world for the last 100 years and making it safe for democracy. Please don't try to tell America that it's standard of living will have to go down. If Americans find out that the Fed has been secretly selling off ther assets to foreigners, all hell will break loose and the financiers who did this will pay a terrible price. The hogs get fat and the pigs will get slaughtered.
Schitzy market today. I guess the traders don't know what to when no one steps up to pump the dollar in the afternoon.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
So, if the doom train left New York at 11:40 am and the rally train left Washington at 12:15p and both are traveling at the speed of light, where would they pass each other and how fast would the trains appear to be going to the people on the other train?
This just in. Researchers find way to clone and duplicate adults without lengthy process of growing up and education. Government and banks find way to provide clones with housing and credit.
/snark off
EHP
I'm not relying on anyone but myself for my investing strategy, don't worry. I did feel like something would happen today, if not today then soon. There is no way this rally can go much longer. However, I always remember "the markets can remain illogical longer than you can remain solvent"
DCRogers
that makes more sense, I was thinking of stocks in terms of supply of
even still, that is extremely dubious given the 102% rally since March, and that they compare it to a rally in the early 70s where the index composition would have been very different in real terms
suggesting a 24% increase in 3 months for any asset class, it should be incumbent upon them to explain in detail the rationale
That report was more a of a joke than Andrew Garthwaite at Credit Suisse saying X will go up because X has gone up, 2 weeks in a row in different reports
This isn't the tech bubble. There isn't even the illusion of increased productivity.
t r orwell wrote:
Ok, but if you tell them we're not going to pay them back, they won't lend us any more money, and your standard of living WILL fall. The trick here is to look strong and humble at the same time. Zen like.
i wasn't talking about football.
Dirk is pretty bullish and last week he said $85 oil might put a touch of round up on the green shootz.
come on, high of the day!
Hello Oil!
black dog wrote:
What is the lag-time between the casino oil prices and the pump price the peasants pay?
So the Fed is "testing" repos today:
Dollar slips as N.Y. Fed clarifies steps toward 'exit strategy'
That's inflationary, right?
If you don't owe any money, you are debt free and don't need any loans. All the globalists will sheeeeet in their pants. Globalists have no respect for countries, sovereignties, country borders, nor the people in the countries. Globalists are basically people w/o a country.
The move is the latest attempt by the Obama administration to prop up the faltering U.S. housing market, by restarting a source of financing for first-time and low-income homebuyers that has all but dried up.
Hmmm... kinda sounds like more government sponsored bad mortgage loans to me.
If the only part of GS making money is the trading desk than anything that can be traded will continue to go up?
oil is up $15 in less than a month. Even if you believe that it's just a financial asset like any other, you have got to be skeptical of at what price the last greedy grasp for return is
I'm not exactly sticking my neck out there on this one
What is the lag-time between the casino oil prices and the pump price the peasants pay?
Keep in mind that gas prices fall this time of year so it's more feasible for the hedge funds to create a nice oil bubble without political scrutiny.
Life in a kleptocracy never really changes until the final collapse.
Globalists are basically people w/o a country.
Greed is a religion that transcends borders. That is why it is so bright and shiny
HollywoodHack wrote:
I can't find the source at the moment, but I know that no one would release his biography until the 1950s because of the stunch bitterness people held against him. The wealthy might have liked him, but family lore spoke of great & great-great grandparents spitting and cussing just at hearing his name. I'm amazed that there weren't bedtime stories to scare kids into eating food or going to bed because of him.
So who is leasing supertankers for storage?
btw -- word is there is an ongoing steady exit of bankers and hedge funds from the UK
So who is leasing supertankers for storage?
I dunno, but if that's happening I'd assume it's being financed directly or indirectly by speculative funds.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Where are they going?
KBW downgraded Fannie and Freddie to "Underperform," its lowest rating, from "Market Perform" and cut price targets on both stocks to zero from $1.
I love this. Target = 0.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Is there any indication of where they are going? I have heard that Dubai is hiring, bit nothing other than that.
t r orwell wrote:
I'm likin' this idea. The US "declares" itself debt-free. Everybody in the US "declares" themselves debt-free. In fact, everybody in the entire world "declares" themselves debt-free. Everybody who is owed money - Hu included - is poop out-o-luck. We're all rich again.
What is the lag-time between the casino oil prices and the pump price the peasants pay?
Won't matter. They'll put it on the card/walk away/ben prints to make lender whole.
I'm finally figuring this ponzi thing-a-ma-jig out.
Oil $200!
shill posted earlier about the Fed monetizing MBS. Almost 1 trillion.
Ask yourself, where did that money go?
Is this too simplistic, or is it what it seems to look like?
What is the lag-time between the casino oil prices and the pump price the peasants pay?
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
There is a reason Jubilees only happen every so often...
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Well, I guess US Citizens would have to renounce their share of the national debt.
Oil will go down when GS says it's time to go down. Meanwhile, they've got boatloads full of it to unload at premium prices
Pwned by Yagij.
yagij wrote:
If you were a really smart amoral scum-bag where would you go right now? I'm thinking China.
Disclaimer: I'm not really smart, but I'm trying really hard at being an amoral scum-bag.
In fact, everybody in the entire world "declares" themselves debt-free. Everybody who is owed money - Hu included - is poop out-o-luck. We're all rich again.
So much savings is in the form of debt I doubt people will feel very rich if it suddenly gets wiped out.
I'll have to e-mail back and ask. Sounded like to other big offices of the bank for bankers, or other European financial centers for Hedge Funds. A combination of tax + regulation fears, with the insurance of the slow-moving bankruptcy of the UK to make it the right choice
Einhorn bets on major currency 'death spiral'
Major institutions should be broken up if necessary, Greenlight manager says Explore related topics
By Alistair Barr, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Greenlight Capital is betting on the possibility of a major currency collapse and a surge in interest rates, the hedge-fund firm's manager David Einhorn said Monday, citing ballooning government deficits in some of the world's most developed countries.
Einhorn bets on major currency ‘death spiral’ - MarketWatch
**btw -- word is there is an ongoing steady exit of bankers and hedge funds from the UK **
should clear up the housing shortage in London
Noticing something odd on the eBay front again.
.
1 oz lots of USD pre-1964 coins are cheaper than 1 oz silver eagles. Also, the difference between a 1oz bar and round v. 1 oz silver eagle has narrowed to the point that shipping is the only thing that might separate the cost. Where as last year, pre-1964 coins seemed to carry a premium of 11-15x face value, silver sovereign bullion was cheaper, and the spread between bars/rounds & sovereigns could easily be upwards of 2-4 USD/oz.
.
Anyone else noticing oddities in these kind of trader/retail markets for PMs?
If you were a really smart amoral scum-bag where would you go right now? I'm thinking China.
China and other hyperbubble economies like those in Latin America. We might even see powerful new bubbles in places like Eastern Europe, the Middle East and the satellites orbiting larger planets like Jupiter and Saturn.
yagij wrote:
I think we're overdue: In the Old Testament book of Leviticus, a Jubilee year is to occur every fifty years.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
China kills the amoral scum-bags who land on the wrong side of the law, and the Chinese have been taking it to raw material exporters like Australia and scrap metal dealers. They cause their own problems, and if push comes to shove, I would not want to be caught in that part of the world when things sour.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Our GD was roughly 70 years ago? Our generation's Jubilee is late, but is coming.
I've been reading Martin Armstrong's essays, and he strikes me as a later-day Edmond Dantes, of sorts, a guy that used to move mountains with his words and held audience with the most important people in the world, now clumsily types out masterpieces for everybody to read, from his roost in the all-bar motel.
Recommended!
steelhead wrote:
Not just banking either - live better compete less [learn to live on it though]...
yagij wrote:
Well, it goes without saying that smart amoral scum-bag ALWAYS follow the "law". The "law" is usually just making sure the smarter amoral scum-bags are just getting a piece of your action. But, fear of death has a way of focusing the mind, which should make the smart amoral scum-bags even MORE competitive and successful.
I so hope this is true:
Friday’s insider-trading charges against the founder of Galleon could be the tip of the iceberg, writes Allan Dodds Frank. Other hedge funds and the McKinsey consulting firm face scrutiny.
and that they eventually get around to using the RICO statutes to deal with these crooks-
HollywoodHack wrote:
Must have been talking about U Chicago - couldn't POSSIBLY be one of those recent up starts west of the Sierras...
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
I think you give the smart amoral scum-bags too much credit. If the smart amoral folks always won, you would never have governments collapse, businesses fail, and aristrocrats overthrown.
dryfly wrote:
Another "nice guy" talking philosophy. Can't happen. No human system can voluntarily shrink itself.
And "live better with less"? Jeezz, what are the top 15% going to be doing during this bucolic time in history? Knitting?
What are we, crabs or humans!
- L Summers, 2009
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Crab Battle!!
tncubsfan wrote:
Note: At the point of impact, there is momentarily infinite deceleration.
We're crab people, crab people ...
Apologies if you're not a South Park viewer
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Unless they fix this.... We pretend to work - they pretend to pay us... they better start learning about pearl one knit two.
Cinco-X wrote:
Be still, my decelerating heart!
tncubsfan wrote:
You're a Cubs fan. This should be old hat by now-
Yagij -
This coin site is nice because they show the latest pricing on pretty much a daily basis. A lot of other sites you have to call them to find out or to place an order. Just FYI.
Gold Coins Gain: Gold Coins, Gold Bullion, Gold IRA, and Gold 401k - Buy gold coins
Bloomberg - American International Group Inc., [AKA THE AMERICAN TAXPAYER] the insurer bailed out by the U.S., extended an additional $2 billion in credit to its plane-leasing unit that is unable to borrow from its usual sources of funding.
it never ends . . . .
MaryAnn wrote:
I don't think so; American tobacco is the worlds best for cigarettes. I think that Caribbean tobacco may be best for cigars, but I don't know for sure-
Cinco-X
You develop a thick skin being a Cubs fan
101 years and counting!
dryfly wrote:
Ummm..... Barry Goldwater, et al-
Terry
They are the biggest buyer of Boeing which is a big buyer for GE and United Technologies, and the biggest provider of planes to airlines based in America
It would be mean to stop the spending now
tncubsfan wrote:
They seem to be good for bulk purchases, but it takes quite a few coins/oz of silver to average out a S/H/Insurance charge of 24 USD. I used eBay in my reference because it is the only place I know sans shows and local shops--if you have them--that sell coins and bullion. eBay is showing me 22 USD for bullion or coins and 21.99 USD/oz for pre-1964 coins. Your example would have me out 43 USD just for a single coin (Great deal for bulk buys if they accept CC tho)
.
APMEx is another good site, but they hate on CC users--for obvious reasons.
yagij wrote:
Can foreign born amoral scum-bags join 'the party' just like native born Chinese can? If so pretty much no-problemo... just make sure to share the skim w/ fellow apparatchiks - and all will be fine.
They've been trying to sell ILFC for a while too (I have a pitchbook from Nov 2008 put together by Blackstone, Moelis and MS right next to me). We figured no one would touch it unless gov't backstop debt was part of the sale.
tncubsfan wrote:
Thank goodness the wait's over for Red Sox fans-
yagij wrote:
Well, there are set-backs for individual smart amoral scumbags (SASs). But, somebody always wins during those extraordinary times, proving THEY are really the SASs. This SAS thing is really just my cheap philosophy of life that lets me off the hook for being less-than-smart, lazy, or having some other personality defects – as I can just say: “Oh, those SAS’s always win in the end anyway”. It sound better, I think, than just blaming Ben, or the liberals, or Bush, etc.. SAS is more inclusive of all the worlds scum, regardless of race, political ideology, and sexual orientation.
dryfly wrote:
If they are anything like the Japanese--few peoples are--then nope. You never break through the honne-tatemae boundry. Maybe the Chinese are different. They have had moments when they did allow foreigners into areas of influence (e.g. Qing), but not others.
Don't forget, GE is also one of the biggest buyers of aircraft (2nd after ILFC). GECAS has more units, but ILFC's portfolio is greater in value.
yagij (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 10/19/2009 - 4:31 pm replyIgnore usertncubsfan wrote:
Just FYI.
They seem to be good for bulk purchases, but it takes quite a few coins/oz of silver to average out a S/H/Insurance charge of 24 USD. I used eBay in my reference because it is the only place I know sans shows and local shops--if you have them--that sell coins and bullion. eBay is showing me 22 USD for bullion or coins and 21.99 USD/oz for pre-1964 coins. Your example would have me out 43 USD just for a single coin (Great deal for bulk buys if they accept CC tho)
.
APMEx is another good site, but they hate on CC users--for obvious reasons
yagij wrote:
Well, the smart amoral scum-bags don't want to BE part of any "society" or "governemnt". They just want to pillage it. Who need a nation now? Why be in politics when you can just purchase the politicians.
These are banksters moving from London to China. They aren't MOVING to China, just looting it for as much as they can and then skipping town.
Hedgefund announces future trading plans
Color me skeptical.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
That is another business ready to go tits up - who needs planes when fewer and fewer are flying? Its like CRE with wings.
Gannett, the newspaper publisher that reported plummeting ad sales and subscriptions?
up 8.15% today, 540% since its lows in March
Manitowoc, the crane company that tried to diversify by going into restaurant equipment last fall then had to sell its marine unit to pay the bills
up 8.26% today, 370% since its lows in March
did the market ever look this rotten during the dot.com bubble?
I just read Paul Krugman's new book, The Return of Depression Economics.
The book is really thin on detail and greatly oversimplifies economics. That's fine. What's significant and not fine imo is that Krugman espouses what all failed policy makers espouse after their policies fail. Namely, inflation via printing. No joke. That's what Krugman recommends - printing and inflation.
Why is it that Krugman and other eCONomists are always in such hurry to devalue real savings in an attempt to re-inflate the value of fraudulent credit? At this point, it's hard to call economics a legitimate profession. It's more akin to voodoo, a big CONfidence scam.
Has it ever occurred to Krugman that inflation is theft and that founding an eCONomics system on theft is immoral and unstable? Don't even get me started on the problems created by exponential inflation growth.
HollywoodHack wrote:
Chicago or Stanford?
energyecon wrote:
Unlike Japan, the United States isn't past the point of no return, the fund manager stressed. However, he criticized financial-reform proposals pushed by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, arguing they provide a government backstop for the largest institutions, entrenching them further. **
Angry Saver wrote:
I'm sure that Krugman has inflation riders in his contracts. Inflation is for the little people.
Hey whadya know....Texas Instruments beat analyst estimates. I'll bet my left n*t that Apple does the same, although I guess with Apple they have something people with no money want to buy
"did the market ever look this rotten during the dot.com bubble? "
The dot-com bubble was far, far worse. So far anyway.
At least the companies you mention actually make things, the valuations are crazy, but these are real companies.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Like a plague of locusts, they gotta stop eventually. They get eaten if they do, die from exhaustion if they don't, and might live to see mating season if they play their cards right. Rather apt comparison of the current situation if you think about it.
Inflation is no more theft than your house becoming less valuable is theft. I would benefit from a good round of inflation in the U.S., so I'm in favor of as much printing as you can get. You are obviously on the other side, but please don't try to extend your own self-interest into a sense of moral outrage.
some investor guy wrote:
Has to be Stanford - can't possibly be UC - early last century maybe but not since say 1960. I was spoofing him [being a left coaster].
tncubsfan wrote:
I guess so: AAPL Stock Quote - Apple Inc Stock Quote - AAPL Quote - AAPL Stock Price
dryfly wrote:
Hint: Hoover was from the Palo Alto area and member of some of its gentlemen's societies.
Reading comprehension is a bit of problem for you, then...
.
Greenlight has been buying physical gold this year because Einhorn is concerned that efforts to save the financial system and fuel economic recovery are undermining the value of such currencies as the U.S. dollar.
On Monday, he said Greenlight has added new trades to this investment theme, buying long-dated options on much higher interest rates in Japan and other developed regions -- effectively giving the firm the chance to make big profits from a jump in rates. The options, bought from major banks, are tied to interest rates four to five years out, Einhorn noted.
yagij wrote:
And there's that "institute".
dryfly wrote:
As far as schools of economics go, The U of Chicago has been preeminent for some time, and the Sloan School has been on the outs.
Oops! Didn't catch the Hoover meme-
"Don't forget, GE is also one of the biggest buyers of aircraft (2nd after ILFC). GECAS has more units, but ILFC's portfolio is greater in value."
So we continue to prop up AIG, GM, Chrysler and GMAC . . . such fun!
yagij wrote:
Hoover was also born & raised in Iowa w/ significant Midwest roots - so wasn't certain at all.
Tallest building on Stanford's campus is the Hoover tower, i think.
Cinco-X, Mericans can't afford American grown tobacco, it's called THIRD Tier Tobacco grown in friendly countries like Pakistan or United Arab Emirates, and I'm not talking several brands, I'm talking hundreds of brands. My friend who reps for an American third tier tobacco company told me today they were hanging by a thread or puff.
" And "live better with less"? Jeezz, what are the top 15% going to be doing during this bucolic time in history? Knitting? Unless they fix this.... We pretend to work - they pretend to pay us... they better start learning about pearl one knit two. "
Good call -- except they already are knitting. Knitting is EFFING EXPENSIVE. Serious knitting is for the privileged classes; you can easily spend $30 for a ball of yarn; good "cheap" wool will run you 6-9 a ball; only take 15-20 for a sweater. Cheaper to buy retail, has been for decades. Even crap acrylic yarn that wears out quickly is $2.50-$3.50 a ball.
If you've got no cash you either buy the acrylic crap or haunt the thrift stores for old wool sweaters you can rip down for the yarn.
No I don't knit, but my wife is serious about it, teaches classes, and is always trying to find ways to make it cheaper for low-income knitters. But she figures it's a losing battle.
dryfly wrote:
So spoketh the Wikipedia:
"Texas Instruments beat analyst estimates. I'll bet my left n*t that Apple does the same, although I guess with Apple they have something people with no money want to buy"
Apple blew away estimates, and blew away last year's results.
You are so right about having something people with no money want to buy - everyone and their dog has an iPhone.
AAPL is 204 bid after hours...
Winston wrote:
Wouldn't the question be, however, does inflation as a government policy benefit the majority of society?
(I know, I know... a question that in REAL society would cause a burst of hysterical laughter amongst the smart amoral scumbags that own the government, but just for fun... Assuming the government was looking out the majority of its "citizens").
Take a look at this video from the summer of 2003. At the 4 minute and 10 second marker, a man who was nourished and received only the best that his country has to offer states that "the purchasing power of our employees, our people, our workers is far more important than what it is we produce". This, my friends, is one of the most incriminating acts of treason that any person who has a country that he calls his own could ever make. To him, debt does not matter just as long as it is not his own personal debt. This man is the personification of a globalist.
YouTube - Rep. Bernard Sanders vs. Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
But, the people who are working still have money. Not everything is going to "stop". 80% of the population is still working.
In case you were wondering....
Goldman’s biggest problem isn’t that it took bailout funds, engineered the overnight rescue of American International Group (AIG) so that it wouldn’t cease to exist, and transformed itself into a normal bank so that it would no longer be subject to the increasingly dire vicissitudes of the credit-drunk, overleveraged I-banking world. No, Goldman’s biggest problem is that we don’t really have General Motors (MTLQQ) to kick around anymore.
and they said it with a straight face no less-
MaryAnn wrote:
Well then, I even more glad I quit smoking back in '94-
haven't looked at apple
but ipod sales were down
and don't forget they recognize certain payments over an amortized period (iphone subscribers, warranties, ...)
I'm sure they did well, but their margins are going to slide. Serious computer competition from Sony and Dell, windows 7 too, and apple historically does at least adjust their pricing to stay current with exchange rates. Blackberry and Google are catching up to the iphone in the multimedia/apps department
they have loads of cash, and probably a new tablet coming out in the next 6 months, but they have had their fat years and there should be some lean ones ahead
"80% of the population is still working. "
80% of the population is still working? Are you sure about that?
so I'm in favor of as much printing as you can get.
Winston,
You should move to Zimbabwe. Maybe you could even get an autographed zillion dollar bill from Gideon Gono.
t r orwell wrote:
Corporations are globalists. The people that own & run global corporations are globalists. Why worry about just Ben, he's just doing what best for business. That's who owns the US government, the lobbyists of global corporations. Been this way for 40+ years, way too late to worry about that NOW.
and fwiw
the #1 growth driver of their computer sales was gains in market share, beginning with university/college market. Might not have happened everywhere yet because of campus computer stores signing multi-year exclusivity deals, but the cheap/small netbooks have taken over
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Well, assuming the 10% official UE rate is really 20%.
Edit: AH. population. I meant working age population. sorry. The UE indicator folks. Full-employment - 20 % real UE = 80% thing.
46.3% of the population is working.
58.8% of the population over age 16, not institutionalized, and not in the military are working
(including part time)
Zimbabwe errs on the other side. However there's a pretty wide range between the hyperinflation in Zimbabwe and a moderate level of inflation that would cause the dollar to fall in value to a more reasonable level.
Interesting:
In reviewing the status of the market late last week, the condition of the data was something of an anomaly in that regard. On the valuation front, stocks are presently overvalued, but to levels that we've observed at least several times in history. The anomaly relates to market action, where we can no longer find a single historical instance where stocks were more overbought on the combination of short- and intermediate-term measures we respond to most strongly. Indeed, only one instance comes close, which is November 28, 1980.
and yet they keep on buying into it-
Apple without Jobs = $1.99
Speaking of being off peak:
http://www.theoildrum.com/files/ccst20090515.png
he's launching 1.5 more products, and then he'll be transitioning to retirement
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
From their press release
*CUPERTINO, California—October 19, 2009—Apple® today announced financial results for its fiscal 2009 fourth quarter ended September 26, 2009. The Company posted revenue of $9.87 billion and a net quarterly profit of $1.67 billion, or $1.82 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $7.9 billion and net quarterly profit of $1.14 billion, or $1.26 per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 36.6 percent, up from 34.7 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 46 percent of the quarter’s revenue.
*
Hooray for the depreciating dollar!!
You didn't watch the video
Cinco-X wrote:
Why not buy? It's not a market, it's a casino. If you don't play with the free government money, you'd be a fool (assuming you've got the governments loot). Why not double down.
but the cheap/small netbooks have taken over
EHP,
That's what I see happening too. All love fests and fads fade away. Some fast, some slow.
Obviously the real problem of the 40% off rests with the new construction and the properties bought from 2004 and on. And all the refinanced properties where owners took out cash for further CRE investment. So, that means 90% are screwed and the banks with those loans are screwed. The margins are mighty wide these days and those at the margins have nothing but bad debt, bad properties, and bad futures.
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods cut the price targets of federally controlled mortgage-finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to zero today, saying the government needs to recapitalize the two and wipe out shareholders.
.....
Interesting theory, but I think they underestimate the government's willingness to continue throwing good money after bad.
Got a kick out of that last line
t r orwell wrote:
I can't, it's blocked at my zombie bank. But, why is there any talk about "globalists" at this point. Globalism happened OFFICIALLY 10 years ago. Companies have been outsourcing jobs for 30 years. We're at the end game now, the post-game show of globalism. They won.
In reviewing the status of the market late last week, the condition of the data was something of an anomaly in that regard. On the valuation front, stocks are presently overvalued, but to levels that we've observed at least several times in history. The anomaly relates to market action, where we can no longer find a single historical instance where stocks were more overbought on the combination of short- and intermediate-term measures we respond to most strongly. Indeed, only one instance comes close, which is November 28, 1980.
I really like Hussman. He seems both smart and honest -- kind of rare for the industry he's in.
ac wrote:
Ya'; what the hell's wrong with him /snark
I guess he may be the exception that proves the rule
And how are small industrial properties doing?
I'm in Capt. Obvious mode today.
Read the linked article from an earlier thread from Martin Weiss concerning Bernanke's actions and their consequences. I would like the actions attributed to Bernanke to be henceforth referred to as actions taken by the Federal Reserve. Bernanke is a bit player in this tragic comedy and the actions he is directed to take by his shareholders should be shouldered by the entire corrupt federal reserve system that the large banks control. Bernanke's title should be spokesperson. A little tired of the change the figurehead to fool the citizenry game.
The Fed is now directing their spokesperson to warn the Federal govt that they now need to rein in the deficit to promote dollar stability and rectify global imbalances. My translation is the Fed realizes they will need some more huge inflows into the banking system to cover CRE losses, continued consumer defaults and since the credit worthiness of the USA is now in question it would behoove the govt to save the limited future credit to support the TBTF banks. The interesting dynamic happening here is the conflict between the various sectors that have become wholly dependent on income streams from the govt to survive. Too many piglets fighting for teats are starting to eye the fattest piglet as an impediment to their survival.
Lobbyists competing for limited funds is making for interesting politics. This friction is being exposed across the board from the factions in the health care reform, the dissension in the Chamber of Commerce, regional banks against the TBTF(aka Federal Reserve shareholders), and local muni's vs state vs federal. The winnowing down is forgetting the people that make the system run, you and me and our productive endeavors from which the taxes are derived. The fundamental failure of the power structure to realize the need to create jobs and support small business is the primary cognitive dissonance in this crisis/collapse. Our elected representatives have to be waking up to this fact and if they have any doubt of their failure in leadership then the overwhelming reality is becoming abundantly clear as the mirage of green shoots reveals only empty sand.
I haven't given up on my country. I fervently hope that there is enough of our leadership that still feels some patriotism and loyalty to the citizens that elected them. I expect decisions going forward that start focusing on jobs over bailouts and transparency over manufactured illusions. There is simply no other acceptable choice.
Cinco-X wrote:
Naa.. didn't somebody on here post the article about this being (mostly) an New York vs everybody else problem. NY meaning Wall Street. There's lots of financial people that aren't in on this scam that have no representation either.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
I live in a college town and have gone to three coffee houses this week. Everywhere that white apple is glowing at me from the back of black or white MacBooks. I don't even see that many Dells around; college kids still like Macs as multi-media machines.
The only netbook I've seen in public around here belonged to a man of nearly retirement age.
U.S. Plans to Charge 10 More After Rajaratnam Arrest - Bloomberg.com
the hits'll just keep on comin' ~
Externalized Costs wrote:
Nice summary Capt Obvious! Except for that last paragraph.
I know lots of knitters that hunt for old sweaters to repurpose. Same with old wool blankets and sheets for sewers. Most people I know who do this are under 40. The only folks I know who are still big consumers of expensive craft items are over 55 yrs old. Kinda says a bit about comsumption patterns in the US, yes?
"International sales accounted for 46 percent of the quarter’s revenue.
Hooray for the depreciating dollar!! "
Yup, same recurring theme - the falling dollar will help a lot of companies, at least in the short run. That is the goal.
Who cares if it comes at the expense of the serfs buying energy? Not our Fascist leaders.
"Let them take the bus." will be our equivalent of "let them eat cake".
We can either devote more deficit spending to creating jobs, or...
Industry Groups Urge 12-Month Tax Credit Extension : HousingWire || financial news for the mortgage market
the falling dollar is supposed to help exporters, not MNCs who are simply reporting numbers from overseas operations, with no intention of repatriating those foreign earnings...
"Except for that last paragraph."
A necessity for me to function in this morass. Every moment is an opportunity for change regardless of the perceived obstacles.
I'm starting to wonder if under arrest = keep under protective custody. Too many people out there who would swerve if they saw these folks trying to change a tire on the side of the road.
Basel Too wrote:
You mean we don't make all those iphone here? I'm outraged, no, wait: OUTRAGED.
hey, I like that - the "globalism post-game show;" it is like the football guys breaking down the games on Monday morning, "Well, if the defense hadn't gotten caught in a nickel formation, then they could have brought more pressure .." etc. etc.
-but with the crucial difference that the people arguing politics and economics don't understand that the game is over, and the final score has already been recorded. The poli-sci and econ crowd think they can still affect the outcome of the game while they are watching the wrap-ups and highlight show!