You know the part of the cartoon where after falling off a short cliff the coyote is dizzy and stumbles around for a bit before stepping off the big cliff?
And yet try to find a house that is wheelchair ready, or can be easily remodeled for that. The McMansions are not appropriate for aging boomers, but that's what most builders are doing. In fact, there are a lot of really dated floor plans out there-- when I was looking in NH, I saw the same old "Colonial" floor plan, like my parents built 40 years ago. Crazy.
The cities are broke and looking to get funds in the till.
Many of them should just declare BK and get it over with. But they have learned to play the same extend and pretend as the Feds.
Bring on that $30,000 tax credit for all home buyers!!!!!
Yeah. I'm starting to agree. I think we can get this housing thing going again. All that's needed is some euphoria. We need some testosterone injections for the entire country. Maybe we can add it to the water supply? That would get the confidence going again. It's nothing more than - uh - firming up the confidence.
And yet try to find a house that is wheelchair ready, or can be easily remodeled for that. The McMansions are not appropriate for aging boomers, but that's what most builders are doing. In fact, there are a lot of really dated floor plans out there-- when I was looking in NH, I saw the same old "Colonial" floor plan, like my parents built 40 years ago. Crazy.
Jim the Realtor is a big advocate of senior friendly design as an investment plus. My primary residence is what is known as a California Rambler. There is a 4" step at the front door and the necessary (for safety) 10" between garage and kitchen. Other than those nothing bigger than a carpet lip. Lots of pocket doors as hinge doors often get in the way.
Thing is, you cannot build a California Rambler in California anymore. Urban planners don't allow it. Density too low, street frontage too long, etc.
Yeah. I'm starting to agree. I think we can get this housing thing going again. All that's needed is some euphoria. We need some testosterone injections for the entire country. Maybe we can add it to the water supply? That would get the confidence going again. It's nothing more than - uh - firming up the confidence.
Talking about 'banks don't want to lend', WFC just raised my CC rate to >= 14.5 % and >=25 %(cash advance) . I carry no balance, never have, not on any of my two CC's. What is gained by raising my rate, puzzling. Citi, the other CC issuer, did lower my limit an year ago, but that was understandable. I did not need/use anything near the limit.
When Chicago and Cook County officials hiked cigarette taxes in 2006, they expected some people would smoke less or quit. Others would buy their cigarettes outside of the county. But officials still expected that the higher tax would boost revenue.
That prediction turned out to be wrong. In both the city and county, a big chunk of cigarette tax revenues has gone up in smoke.
Urban planners don't allow it. Density too low, street frontage too long, etc. - RD
Nothing to do with planning, RD. The 50's style ranch just went out of fashion. Eight foot ceilings, tiny bathrooms, narrow halls, dark, poky spaces. People don't want that anymore. And no reason why they should. But there are plenty of one story plans that fit on narrow lots-- bungalows, cottages, Cape Cods, post-moderns, etc.
The real problem with one-story is money. A 1-story plan has a larger foundation relative to walls. A smaller, simpler foundation is cheaper. In areas where people generally have a basement, because of frost depth, it's much cheaper to build on a small footprint. But that doesn't excuse the lack of wheelchair planning.
What I really want to know is how many builders are leaving the business, or cutting back to remodeling. Not so much the big guys like Toll, but the little builders. Some of these guys are pretty poor businesspeople, in my experience, and I'd expect them to be dropping like flies.
you may think there is no good reason, but if you ask them what their expectations are for employment ahead, well, then it might start to make sense. You see, when the time comes when more of their customers have no income stream, they are probably counting on them reverting to credit cards to pay for many of their essentials, in which case, as they grow that balance, the bloodsuckers have a tastier feast (at least til the BK filing, at which point they have to just reassess what blood can be sucked dry in ch 13, since the new law makes it much more likely they can still pick on the carcass after the filing.)
This far along in the game we can assume 'survivor's bias' plays a role in the homebuilders. Therefore a downtick in the current index should carry more weight than it would have a year or two ago.
People don't want that anymore. And no reason why they should.
They are on drugs if they don't see these as good designs. The 50s 'Open Style' Cali Rambler is an icon... just like the Midwest Prairie Square, Mission Bungalow, Prairie School, Cape Cod Salt Box, SW Mission - etc. Just make sure to site them in the right location. A Cali Rambler in Minnesota is ridiculous... a Midwest Prairie Square in California equally ridiculous. Most miniMcMansions are the worst of all these designs thrown together cheaply & poorly sited - ridiculous everywhere.
You see, when the time comes when more of their customers have no income stream, they are probably counting on them reverting to credit cards to pay for many of their essentials, in which case, as they grow that balance, the bloodsuckers have a tastier feast (at least til the BK filing, at which point they have to just reassess what blood can be sucked dry in ch 13, since the new law makes it much more likely they can still pick on the carcass after the filing.)
They may not have to wait long.
*Other credit-card issuers are having problems, too: JPMorgan Chase & Co. said earlier this week that nearly 6 percent of its cardholders are at least 30 days delinquent, and it set aside nearly $5 billion to cover future unpaid bills. On Thursday, Citigroup Inc. said it was also hit badly by losses on private-label credit cards.
In a breakdown of its lending, Capital One said defaults in its auto loan unit rose to 4.58 percent last month from 4.31 percent in August, and the delinquency rate also rose to 9.52 percent from 9.42 percent.*
This far along in the game we can assume 'survivor's bias' plays a role in the homebuilders. - BD
It depends. There are big and medium-sized builders, who tend to go BK because of the huge line of credit they run. But the little builders who only do pre-solds and true custom can cut back to one pickup and a dog. That's how they've always survived. Of course, that doesn't tell you much about the subs, who may have a license but not a NAHB membership. If you could somehow tally construction license renewals in all the states you'd get a better picture of the industry as a whole.
You are my hero dryfly! Even FLW knew to design to the terrain. Gosh, how many of those have I occupied? Ahhh, you forget New England mill town stacked triplex walkup conversion.
And yet try to find a house that is wheelchair ready, or can be easily remodeled for that. The McMansions are not appropriate for aging boomers, but that's what most builders are doing. In fact, there are a lot of really dated floor plans out there-- when I was looking in NH, I saw the same old "Colonial" floor plan, like my parents built 40 years ago. Crazy.*
It may interest you to know that building codes are changing. At least for multifamily, that is. Basically, everything today must be accessible to some level (Fully accessible, 'A' or 'B'). Each level requires that you can at least get to the front door; all require wider interior doors and certain minimal kitchen and bathroom clearances. Single family - that's another matter unless it happens to be built with funding from some agency that insists on accessibility standards. My personal opinion, working in this area, is that a lot of 'affordable' housing today is built as well or better as private 'market' housing. It may lack a third bathroom, granite and stainless steel but is typically more energy efficient and more accessible and it probably has better workmanship.
"I wondered what, if any significance there was to a fairly large issue of muncipal bonds by a number of cities/states/counties:"
Our municipal bond lawyers are busy as hell. The low interest rates are causing issuers to refund higher yielding debt.
Also the stimulus provides new authority to issue tax credit bonds and federally subsidized taxable bonds, both called “build America bonds” or “BABs,” in 2009 and 2010 only, for governmental projects. The authority is intended to provide, respectively, approximately 25% and 35% federal subsidies of the issuer’s taxable borrowing rate, and a 45% subsidy for certain BABs issued to promote economic development in distressed “recovery zones.” The Stimulus Act also authorizes limited amounts of (1) substantially interest-free tax credit bonds (of limited term) for public school construction, repair, and rehabilitation and (2) additional interest-free or reduced-rate tax credit bonds (also of limited term) for public qualified zone academies, clean renewable energy facilities, and energy conservation programs. In addition, the Stimulus Act authorizes (1) limited amounts of tax-exempt bonds to finance privately owned facilities in recovery zones, (2) limited amounts of tax-exempt bonds to finance privately owned intercity high-speed rail lines, as well as tax-exempt small issue industrial development bonds, in expanded circumstances, and (3) limited amounts of tax-exempt tribal economic development bonds.
What is gained by raising my rate, puzzling.
The CARD Act restrictes their ability to change rates to price for risk going forward, so they are jacking up all rates now so they don't get caught in a squeeze.
They are on drugs if they don't see these as good designs. The 50s 'Open Style' Cali Rambler is an icon... - D
Because you're a Westerner, D. You're into it for sentimental reasons. But if everybody felt that way, it would not have gone out of style. Having lived in one, I swear as God is my witness, I'll never buy one again. Too hard to clean, too cramped in the kitchen and baths, low, oppressive ceilings, waist high windows that don't meet modern code, tiny bedrooms, too many rooms with windows on one side only, an attached garage that lets gas fumes in the house. a cramped laundry room, etc. And did I mention single-pane horizontal sliding aluminum windows and hollow core doors, and 1/2" drywall you could put a fist through? Sorry, man, you boys may associate this style with cowboy culture, but this stuff has passed.
"I wondered what, if any significance there was to a fairly large issue of muncipal bonds by a number of cities/states/counties:"
Our municipal bond lawyers are busy as hell. The low interest rates are causing issuers to refund higher yielding debt.
Post_of_the_month. Bravo.
Absolutely. Danger is in either deliberately or accidentally front loading maturities in pursuit of the very lowest yields. We've seen the carnage of commercial paper failing to roll. It isn't a stretch to see the bond equivalent of a short squeeze soon.
You are my hero dryfly! Even FLW knew to design to the terrain. Gosh, how many of those have I occupied? Ahhh, you forget New England mill town stacked triplex walkup conversion.
Exactly - there were a number I left out but you get it. BTW when my daughter was looking at colleges we stopped at Cal Poly & I got talk w/ some of the architecture dept. She wasn't interested but i jumped at the opportunity. I got to specifically discuss Cali 'open' style w/ them - their profs & advisers at Cal Poly were some of the pioneers 50-60 years prior. Very revolutionary & perfectly suitable to the location & terrain.
They are. In my personal world, I know of no builder of any size or specialty who thinks they will have a stronger year in 2010 than in 2009 and I know of none who have not laid off superintendents (the worker bees were gone long ago).
Rob Dawg - the bonds they are issuing are still 20 year bonds - callable in 10 years. They are calling older bonds carrying higher interest rates and issuing new 20 year bonds.
It may interest you to know that building codes are changing. - w
Actually, I've been designing, building, and remodeling since the 70's, on and off. I'm talking only about SFR here, on the broad assumption that the majority of the individual NAHB members are primarily SFR builders. But that assumption may be wrong-- I don't know how their membership breaks out right now.
Well seriously. If enough people stop paying their mtges and ccs, and all that
debt goes away, and they learn to live on cash, which most should have been
doing all along, some people will start spending some money.
That does make sense, I suppose. They are also eliminating the CC overdraft fee. That is puzzling too. Assuming that was across the board, must have been a $ maker for them. Strange times...
You are my hero dryfly! Even FLW knew to design to the terrain.
I dunno... his houses in Oak Park are rather impractical. Suitable mostly for rural living in areas that don't experience blizzards, which is basically the antithesis of Oak Park.
Exactly - there were a number I left out but you get it. BTW when my daughter was looking at colleges we stopped at Cal Poly & I got talk w/ some of the architecture dept. She wasn't interested but i jumped at the opportunity. I got to specifically discuss Cali 'open' style w/ them - their profs & advisers at Cal Poly were some of the pioneers 50-60 years prior. Very revolutionary & perfectly suitable to the location & terrain.
I am usually the last one to "get it." That said, Cal Poly SLO has some impressive brand new dorms that "conform." Too expensive but definitely what you are talking about. The only thing I cannot get used to as a successfully transplanted New Englander is the lack of attic volume and the complete absence of basement.
Back on topic if that is still allowed. The problem is growing. The NAHB are increasingly less able to deliver the housing solutions we need going forward. IMO good news or bad news for this index isn't relevant going forward.
There's still building going on out here, in my immediate area. Some of it is SFR, as well as a hospital. Some remodeling, too. According to some of my friends in the trades, they are trying to keep their own friends busy by adding on to their offices, and their own homes. The churches are doing things like replacing roofs. Everyone here seems to think all they have to do is hold out for another year or so. My realtor, however, has accepted that things are not getting better anytime soon.
Congress also has legislation pending to crack down on overdraft fees. Now they will just decline the transaction and change you a fee (much smaller) for the declined transaction.
I dunno... his houses in Oak Park are rather impractical. Suitable mostly for rural living in areas that don't experience blizzards, which is basically the antithesis of Oak Park.
I am frequently a vociferous FLW critic. His hubris of low thresholds in Talisen West for example. The poor engineering of Falling Waters. The lack of adequate plumbing at the FSU library. The criminal materials QC of the LA "Mayan" house.
Oak Park is/was "living in place." It does that. The only serious complaints are the recurring themes of cost overruns and freakin' leaks.
The strength of the recovery in the housing market has surprised a lot of people, including Yale Professor Robert Shiller.
"This is historic," Shiller says of the recent snapback in the Case-Shiller Index. "It's V-shaped. We've never seen it before. That makes it hard to know from statistical basis what it portends."
Shiller also uses the phrase 'extend and pretend' in the video. Who came up with that expression first? I could swear it was CR!
I am frequently a vociferous FLW critic. His hubris of low thresholds in Talisen West for example. The poor engineering of Falling Waters. The lack of adequate plumbing at the FSU library. The criminal materials QC of the LA "Mayan" house.
Oak Park is/was "living in place." It does that. The only serious complaints are the recurring themes of cost overruns and freakin' leaks.
No surprise that the 'Prairie School' worked best on the prairie.
excellent point, scone. the basic rancher which became passe in the late 80s is MUCH more oldster-friendly. 2.5 story mcmansions structured around a staircase with 20 ft ceiling living rooms, not so much.
I like FLW houses, even if they are impractical and tend to leak...
We were @ the Martin House in Buffalo, and the docent showed me a xerox of the front page of a Buffalo newspaper in 1903, with the lead headline "Martin Abomination Almost Finished".
I'll say this, if the people of this country are really "surprised" that bank earnings are "beating estimates," after the billions poured into them, and the 0% loans by the FED, then we're in a truly sad state indeed...
Some of the newer entries into NH housing stock include 2-story foyers with giant glass windows. Wonder what the heating bill looks like in those homes?
What is "sadder" (more sad?) is that number of peasants who instinctively assume the bank-earnings are because the banks are fixing their own problems. Here's a prediction: in 2014 - when bread costs 50 buck / loaf - the banks will be profitable, Ben will have won the 2011 Nobel prize for Economics, and the peasants will firmly believe (in there hearts) that the honest hard-workin bidness men that run the greatest financial institutions in the best country in the entire whole wide universe shouldn't be burdened with undue regulation because they work hard and pay taxes (unlike those unemployed LOSERS on welfare who never worked a day in their lives!!!)
IIRC, the IRS "expects" you to pay tax on bartered items as though they were purchased. There was a brouhaha about it in the '80s as I recall, but it seems to have died down over the years.
"Wonder what the heating bill looks like in those homes?"
Believe it or not the heating bills will likely be lower than a 50 year-old house half the size, especially in NH where there were no building codes to speak of until 30 years ago.
I've been reading about craftsman/bungalow/prairie designs as of late, and it seems I recall that FLW was one of the big proponents of appropriate siting, and advocated that the house blend to the terrain and not sit above it-
WOW! according the marketz, wez growin @ 1.18% A DAY. at this rate, GDPs will grow 305% and the dow will close at 30,800 at the end of the year. all around!
YES, FLW was a lowercase god in this respect. I've long suggested that the worst thing that ever happened to urban planning was the bulldozer. FLW leveraged natural aspects. Amplified them. Ameliorated them. We foolishly thing we ignore them.
Sorry, man, you boys may associate this style with cowboy culture, but this stuff has passed.
I'm not a fan of ranch houses, but the "L" shaped ranch is not too bad. My biggest complaint would be that they tend to be built on a slab; if they were implemented as a sort of split level to follow a rolling hillside, they could be more attractive and livable. I had a friend that put cathedral ceilings in the "L" of his L-shaped ranch, and thought I don't know if it adversely affected the structural integrity, it certainly made a pleasant sitting area. His house also had a basement that allowed him to suppress the floor of that room making it a pit, which was even nicer.
Are you thinking of the Library at Florida Southern which also lacked lights for reading since he thought it best to read in sunlight? FSU is usually considered to stand for Florida State University, not Florida Southern which is in Lakeland, FL-
Yes, of course. My apologies for my vagaries. I bet this must be the first time this issue was ever raised. Not.
Florida Souther Library. FLW design. No plumbing.
Next leg down?
You know the part of the cartoon where after falling off a short cliff the coyote is dizzy and stumbles around for a bit before stepping off the big cliff?
Seasonal noise? I mean its a survey - how accurate are those?
Bluto wrote:
Naa, this will constrain supply and allow for a robust recovery in existing home prices over the next decade.
(I'm working on my new career as an optimistic economist. They are in big demand now.)
And yet try to find a house that is wheelchair ready, or can be easily remodeled for that. The McMansions are not appropriate for aging boomers, but that's what most builders are doing. In fact, there are a lot of really dated floor plans out there-- when I was looking in NH, I saw the same old "Colonial" floor plan, like my parents built 40 years ago. Crazy.
OT, but I wondered what, if any significance there was to a fairly large issue of muncipal bonds by a number of cities/states/counties: Muni Market Faces $11.3 Billion in New Issues, Most Since June - Bloomberg.com
Chicago now has the highest sales tax at 10.25%, some CA bonds were rated at just over junk status.
azurite wrote:
11 billion? Do we even keep track of numbers this small now?
Banksters get bonuses bigger than this.
The cities are broke and looking to get funds in the till.
Many of them should just declare BK and get it over with. But they have learned to play the same extend and pretend as the Feds.
The floor plan of choice has the master bedroom downstairs, the unemployed adult family members upstairs--the grandparents in the basement.
Bring on that $30,000 tax credit for all home buyers!!!!!
The answer to all questions is "Their broke."
FDIC
Fed
Cities
Counties
States
Fannie
Freddie
SallyMae
Main Street
Small businesses
Small banks
Big banks
Credit unions
I'm sure I left out several.
ac wrote:
Yeah. I'm starting to agree. I think we can get this housing thing going again. All that's needed is some euphoria. We need some testosterone injections for the entire country. Maybe we can add it to the water supply? That would get the confidence going again. It's nothing more than - uh - firming up the confidence.
josap wrote:
But broke is just a state of mind. Nothing more. If you don't think you're broke, you're not.
scone wrote:
Jim the Realtor is a big advocate of senior friendly design as an investment plus. My primary residence is what is known as a California Rambler. There is a 4" step at the front door and the necessary (for safety) 10" between garage and kitchen. Other than those nothing bigger than a carpet lip. Lots of pocket doors as hinge doors often get in the way.
Thing is, you cannot build a California Rambler in California anymore. Urban planners don't allow it. Density too low, street frontage too long, etc.
Let's get those economic juices flowing.
True, I still have checks left and they haven't canceled my credit cards. I have lots of money.
Ron Jeremy. Maybe my mind is too clean to infer properly, but in hard economic times, are women known to pay for sex?
Yeah. I'm starting to agree. I think we can get this housing thing going again. All that's needed is some euphoria. We need some testosterone injections for the entire country. Maybe we can add it to the water supply? That would get the confidence going again. It's nothing more than - uh - firming up the confidence.
Amphetamines and prozac in the water supply.
What could possibly go wrong?
yagij wrote:
No woman I have ever known.
Trade favors maybe.
ac wrote:
DUDE! Now we're talking. And that's totally possible. I AM Lycin it!!! Stimulus plan #2. And hardly costs anything.
azurite wrote:
There are a few districts in California higher. up to 10.75% IIRC.
Talking about 'banks don't want to lend', WFC just raised my CC rate to >= 14.5 % and >=25 %(cash advance) . I carry no balance, never have, not on any of my two CC's. What is gained by raising my rate, puzzling.
Citi, the other CC issuer, did lower my limit an year ago, but that was understandable. I did not need/use anything near the limit.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
AIG spends more than that on hookers and blow every week.
Noise in the system---
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
I have more checks, I must have more money!
Chicago now has the highest sales tax at 10.25%
And it's bringing out the tax cheats......
When Chicago and Cook County officials hiked cigarette taxes in 2006, they expected some people would smoke less or quit. Others would buy their cigarettes outside of the county. But officials still expected that the higher tax would boost revenue.
That prediction turned out to be wrong. In both the city and county, a big chunk of cigarette tax revenues has gone up in smoke.
From Purchasing.com... copper to hit $4
EDIT: BTW - trade this at your own risk - I have no info that these guys are more than 'randomly' correct.
Urban planners don't allow it. Density too low, street frontage too long, etc. - RD
Nothing to do with planning, RD. The 50's style ranch just went out of fashion. Eight foot ceilings, tiny bathrooms, narrow halls, dark, poky spaces. People don't want that anymore. And no reason why they should. But there are plenty of one story plans that fit on narrow lots-- bungalows, cottages, Cape Cods, post-moderns, etc.
The real problem with one-story is money. A 1-story plan has a larger foundation relative to walls. A smaller, simpler foundation is cheaper. In areas where people generally have a basement, because of frost depth, it's much cheaper to build on a small footprint. But that doesn't excuse the lack of wheelchair planning.
Has there ever been a barter tax?
pavel.chichikov wrote:
California calls it a "use tax." In an amazing coincidence it is the same as the local sales tax.
josap wrote:
I agree there, but you don't need a license from the Nashville Metro folks to "trade favors"...
pavel.chichikov wrote:
If you barter services - 'yes' - income tax. You need to report it. I know a builder who got nicked for about $50K taxes, interest & fines doing that.
Triage:
Medical Services : Medical Services News and Photos - chicagotribune.com
At least the builders still have confidence, as they don't seem to have much else going for them.
Looks like Mish is channeling Michael Moore? Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Where The Hell Is The Outrage?
"I am outraged there is not enough outrage over this."
I'm OUTRAGED!
What I really want to know is how many builders are leaving the business, or cutting back to remodeling. Not so much the big guys like Toll, but the little builders. Some of these guys are pretty poor businesspeople, in my experience, and I'd expect them to be dropping like flies.
you may think there is no good reason, but if you ask them what their expectations are for employment ahead, well, then it might start to make sense. You see, when the time comes when more of their customers have no income stream, they are probably counting on them reverting to credit cards to pay for many of their essentials, in which case, as they grow that balance, the bloodsuckers have a tastier feast (at least til the BK filing, at which point they have to just reassess what blood can be sucked dry in ch 13, since the new law makes it much more likely they can still pick on the carcass after the filing.)
This far along in the game we can assume 'survivor's bias' plays a role in the homebuilders. Therefore a downtick in the current index should carry more weight than it would have a year or two ago.
scone wrote:
They are on drugs if they don't see these as good designs. The 50s 'Open Style' Cali Rambler is an icon... just like the Midwest Prairie Square, Mission Bungalow, Prairie School, Cape Cod Salt Box, SW Mission - etc. Just make sure to site them in the right location. A Cali Rambler in Minnesota is ridiculous... a Midwest Prairie Square in California equally ridiculous. Most miniMcMansions are the worst of all these designs thrown together cheaply & poorly sited - ridiculous everywhere.
1,100 !! The S&P did it! I'm so proud of everyone for making this happen. Remain calm.......all is well....
We are still going down, our little summer bump notwithstanding.
Iffen I waz a dyin' homebuilder lookin' fer ah cowboy to come rescue me I'd say things' were lookin' up'. Jus' sayin'.
GDD9000 wrote:
They may not have to wait long.
*Other credit-card issuers are having problems, too: JPMorgan Chase & Co. said earlier this week that nearly 6 percent of its cardholders are at least 30 days delinquent, and it set aside nearly $5 billion to cover future unpaid bills. On Thursday, Citigroup Inc. said it was also hit badly by losses on private-label credit cards.
In a breakdown of its lending, Capital One said defaults in its auto loan unit rose to 4.58 percent last month from 4.31 percent in August, and the delinquency rate also rose to 9.52 percent from 9.42 percent.*
The article requested is no longer available.
This far along in the game we can assume 'survivor's bias' plays a role in the homebuilders. - BD
It depends. There are big and medium-sized builders, who tend to go BK because of the huge line of credit they run. But the little builders who only do pre-solds and true custom can cut back to one pickup and a dog. That's how they've always survived. Of course, that doesn't tell you much about the subs, who may have a license but not a NAHB membership. If you could somehow tally construction license renewals in all the states you'd get a better picture of the industry as a whole.
Haha.... they should rename the emerging market economies to "parabolic market economies".
Remember when there was a time when it was unusual for markets to go up 2%-5% a day every single day?
You are my hero dryfly! Even FLW knew to design to the terrain. Gosh, how many of those have I occupied? Ahhh, you forget New England mill town stacked triplex walkup conversion.
UK House prices could climb another 24% in the next 3 months
... from JP Morgan, FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » That carpe diem (property) rally
*scone wrote:
It may interest you to know that building codes are changing. At least for multifamily, that is. Basically, everything today must be accessible to some level (Fully accessible, 'A' or 'B'). Each level requires that you can at least get to the front door; all require wider interior doors and certain minimal kitchen and bathroom clearances. Single family - that's another matter unless it happens to be built with funding from some agency that insists on accessibility standards. My personal opinion, working in this area, is that a lot of 'affordable' housing today is built as well or better as private 'market' housing. It may lack a third bathroom, granite and stainless steel but is typically more energy efficient and more accessible and it probably has better workmanship.
"I wondered what, if any significance there was to a fairly large issue of muncipal bonds by a number of cities/states/counties:"
Our municipal bond lawyers are busy as hell. The low interest rates are causing issuers to refund higher yielding debt.
Also the stimulus provides new authority to issue tax credit bonds and federally subsidized taxable bonds, both called “build America bonds” or “BABs,” in 2009 and 2010 only, for governmental projects. The authority is intended to provide, respectively, approximately 25% and 35% federal subsidies of the issuer’s taxable borrowing rate, and a 45% subsidy for certain BABs issued to promote economic development in distressed “recovery zones.” The Stimulus Act also authorizes limited amounts of (1) substantially interest-free tax credit bonds (of limited term) for public school construction, repair, and rehabilitation and (2) additional interest-free or reduced-rate tax credit bonds (also of limited term) for public qualified zone academies, clean renewable energy facilities, and energy conservation programs. In addition, the Stimulus Act authorizes (1) limited amounts of tax-exempt bonds to finance privately owned facilities in recovery zones, (2) limited amounts of tax-exempt bonds to finance privately owned intercity high-speed rail lines, as well as tax-exempt small issue industrial development bonds, in expanded circumstances, and (3) limited amounts of tax-exempt tribal economic development bonds.
SNAFU wrote:
UK House prices could climb another 24% in the next 3 months
Wow... the word "bubble" isn't even strong enough for this New Economy.
We're going to have to come up with a different term.
They are on drugs if they don't see these as good designs. The 50s 'Open Style' Cali Rambler is an icon... - D
Because you're a Westerner, D. You're into it for sentimental reasons. But if everybody felt that way, it would not have gone out of style. Having lived in one, I swear as God is my witness, I'll never buy one again. Too hard to clean, too cramped in the kitchen and baths, low, oppressive ceilings, waist high windows that don't meet modern code, tiny bedrooms, too many rooms with windows on one side only, an attached garage that lets gas fumes in the house. a cramped laundry room, etc. And did I mention single-pane horizontal sliding aluminum windows and hollow core doors, and 1/2" drywall you could put a fist through? Sorry, man, you boys may associate this style with cowboy culture, but this stuff has passed.
Terry wrote:
Post_of_the_month. Bravo.
Absolutely. Danger is in either deliberately or accidentally front loading maturities in pursuit of the very lowest yields. We've seen the carnage of commercial paper failing to roll. It isn't a stretch to see the bond equivalent of a short squeeze soon.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Exactly - there were a number I left out but you get it. BTW when my daughter was looking at colleges we stopped at Cal Poly & I got talk w/ some of the architecture dept. She wasn't interested but i jumped at the opportunity. I got to specifically discuss Cali 'open' style w/ them - their profs & advisers at Cal Poly were some of the pioneers 50-60 years prior. Very revolutionary & perfectly suitable to the location & terrain.
"Dropping like flies"
They are. In my personal world, I know of no builder of any size or specialty who thinks they will have a stronger year in 2010 than in 2009 and I know of none who have not laid off superintendents (the worker bees were gone long ago).
Rob Dawg - the bonds they are issuing are still 20 year bonds - callable in 10 years. They are calling older bonds carrying higher interest rates and issuing new 20 year bonds.
It may interest you to know that building codes are changing. - w
Actually, I've been designing, building, and remodeling since the 70's, on and off. I'm talking only about SFR here, on the broad assumption that the majority of the individual NAHB members are primarily SFR builders. But that assumption may be wrong-- I don't know how their membership breaks out right now.
Greenshoot!
Once again I state that I don't see any reason to build any housing whatsoever,
unless it's somebody's prepaid dream house.
Upgrades and repairs, fine. My builder client is surviving on little jobs.
Well seriously. If enough people stop paying their mtges and ccs, and all that
debt goes away, and they learn to live on cash, which most should have been
doing all along, some people will start spending some money.
My ad sez a bull mkt is just around the corner.
The corner we just passed, I guess.
That does make sense, I suppose. They are also eliminating the CC overdraft fee. That is puzzling too. Assuming that was across the board, must have been a $ maker for them. Strange times...
I dunno... his houses in Oak Park are rather impractical. Suitable mostly for rural living in areas that don't experience blizzards, which is basically the antithesis of Oak Park.
dryfly wrote:
I am usually the last one to "get it." That said, Cal Poly SLO has some impressive brand new dorms that "conform." Too expensive but definitely what you are talking about. The only thing I cannot get used to as a successfully transplanted New Englander is the lack of attic volume and the complete absence of basement.
Back on topic if that is still allowed. The problem is growing. The NAHB are increasingly less able to deliver the housing solutions we need going forward. IMO good news or bad news for this index isn't relevant going forward.
There's still building going on out here, in my immediate area. Some of it is SFR, as well as a hospital. Some remodeling, too. According to some of my friends in the trades, they are trying to keep their own friends busy by adding on to their offices, and their own homes. The churches are doing things like replacing roofs. Everyone here seems to think all they have to do is hold out for another year or so. My realtor, however, has accepted that things are not getting better anytime soon.
"They are also eliminating the CC overdraft fee."
Congress also has legislation pending to crack down on overdraft fees. Now they will just decline the transaction and change you a fee (much smaller) for the declined transaction.
YouTube - Warren Zevon - The Overdraft (live 1982)
Charles Kiting wrote:
By today's standards - I mean where do I put the surround sound home theatre? For 1920s perfectly suitable for what was then a 'suburb'.
Charles Kiting wrote:
I am frequently a vociferous FLW critic. His hubris of low thresholds in Talisen West for example. The poor engineering of Falling Waters. The lack of adequate plumbing at the FSU library. The criminal materials QC of the LA "Mayan" house.
Oak Park is/was "living in place." It does that. The only serious complaints are the recurring themes of cost overruns and freakin' leaks.
Shiller also uses the phrase 'extend and pretend' in the video. Who came up with that expression first? I could swear it was CR!
Well, TTFN, got to take kitty to the vet. She seems to have some sort of eye infection. I guess once you pass 20 years, something's gonna getcha.
Rob Dawg wrote:
No surprise that the 'Prairie School' worked best on the prairie.
excellent point, scone. the basic rancher which became passe in the late 80s is MUCH more oldster-friendly. 2.5 story mcmansions structured around a staircase with 20 ft ceiling living rooms, not so much.
Those 20 ft ceilings hold allot of heat or a/c.
Tough to manage as utility costs increase, or income decreases.
I like FLW houses, even if they are impractical and tend to leak...
We were @ the Martin House in Buffalo, and the docent showed me a xerox of the front page of a Buffalo newspaper in 1903, with the lead headline "Martin Abomination Almost Finished".
He most certainly had the Wright stuff...
I'll say this, if the people of this country are really "surprised" that bank earnings are "beating estimates," after the billions poured into them, and the 0% loans by the FED, then we're in a truly sad state indeed...
yup, this was my point. a mismatch on a few levels, oldsters have fixed incomes and are more likely to want to live somewhere that needs AC (like AZ).
Has inflation been officially announced?
extend and pretend was actually on a CNBC interview of a bankruptcy workout firm - posted by CR
Some of the newer entries into NH housing stock include 2-story foyers with giant glass windows. Wonder what the heating bill looks like in those homes?
josap wrote:
Most guys deny it too-
shill wrote:
What is "sadder" (more sad?) is that number of peasants who instinctively assume the bank-earnings are because the banks are fixing their own problems. Here's a prediction: in 2014 - when bread costs 50 buck / loaf - the banks will be profitable, Ben will have won the 2011 Nobel prize for Economics, and the peasants will firmly believe (in there hearts) that the honest hard-workin bidness men that run the greatest financial institutions in the best country in the entire whole wide universe shouldn't be burdened with undue regulation because they work hard and pay taxes (unlike those unemployed LOSERS on welfare who never worked a day in their lives!!!)
pavel.chichikov wrote:
IIRC, the IRS "expects" you to pay tax on bartered items as though they were purchased. There was a brouhaha about it in the '80s as I recall, but it seems to have died down over the years.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
You miss my intent. FLW was the missing link twixt architecture and the modern perversion of artitechsure. Gehrey being the anti-tect.
"Wonder what the heating bill looks like in those homes?"
Believe it or not the heating bills will likely be lower than a 50 year-old house half the size, especially in NH where there were no building codes to speak of until 30 years ago.
Rob Dawg wrote:
I've been reading about craftsman/bungalow/prairie designs as of late, and it seems I recall that FLW was one of the big proponents of appropriate siting, and advocated that the house blend to the terrain and not sit above it-
WOW! according the marketz, wez growin @ 1.18% A DAY. at this rate, GDPs will grow 305% and the dow will close at 30,800 at the end of the year.
all around!
YES, FLW was a lowercase god in this respect. I've long suggested that the worst thing that ever happened to urban planning was the bulldozer. FLW leveraged natural aspects. Amplified them. Ameliorated them. We foolishly thing we ignore them.
scone wrote:
I'm not a fan of ranch houses, but the "L" shaped ranch is not too bad. My biggest complaint would be that they tend to be built on a slab; if they were implemented as a sort of split level to follow a rolling hillside, they could be more attractive and livable. I had a friend that put cathedral ceilings in the "L" of his L-shaped ranch, and thought I don't know if it adversely affected the structural integrity, it certainly made a pleasant sitting area. His house also had a basement that allowed him to suppress the floor of that room making it a pit, which was even nicer.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Are you thinking of the Library at Florida Southern which also lacked lights for reading since he thought it best to read in sunlight? FSU is usually considered to stand for Florida State University, not Florida Southern which is in Lakeland, FL-
Yes, of course. My apologies for my vagaries. I bet this must be the first time this issue was ever raised. Not.
Florida Souther Library. FLW design. No plumbing.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
barter income is income for federal tax purposes