i find this laughable. for the bullish spinsters if the numbers are good then great! if not the margin of error due to the way it's calculated is +/- 100k. what's it going to be?
i personally think the street is blowing alot of hot air and the fed (as they've said) won't use a one data point as the tipping point on whether to raise/pause rates. IMO i'm fairly certain we'll see another 25bps hike. after that we could see a pause and then further tightening. i'm so sure i'm putting my money where my mouth is. the fed's been fairly transparent and if you can read what they're saying continue to be so.
My head says Richard is right but my gut says he'll pause and let a few more data points fall into place, just in case.
And they could also 'split the difference'... they could walk out of the meeting and 'announce' in their release they are pausing but are leaning toward at least one more increase this summer sometime... with the timing depending on events & data.
It would be the monetary equivalent of a throw to first base to keep a runner honest... without committing to a pitch to the plate... not just yet anyway.
if they don't raise rates, the dollar drops.
i find this laughable. for the bullish spinsters if the numbers are good then great! if not the margin of error due to the way it's calculated is +/- 100k. what's it going to be?
i personally think the street is blowing alot of hot air and the fed (as they've said) won't use a one data point as the tipping point on whether to raise/pause rates. IMO i'm fairly certain we'll see another 25bps hike. after that we could see a pause and then further tightening. i'm so sure i'm putting my money where my mouth is. the fed's been fairly transparent and if you can read what they're saying continue to be so.
told y'all.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Bernanke should hold to let policy act. He should know by late fall/early winter if it has worked.
My head says Richard is right but my gut says he'll pause and let a few more data points fall into place, just in case.
And they could also 'split the difference'... they could walk out of the meeting and 'announce' in their release they are pausing but are leaning toward at least one more increase this summer sometime... with the timing depending on events & data.
It would be the monetary equivalent of a throw to first base to keep a runner honest... without committing to a pitch to the plate... not just yet anyway.