I think it's safe to say it will be a long time until the overhang is cleared. Judicial decisions tended to get more and more favorable toward borrowers during the last Great Depression, and I pretty much expect the same thing to happen during this one.
The pool trustees in Ibanez named the wrong party on the notices because they had not updated the assignment stamps on the documents at the time they advertised the sale.
Case closed at this level. Of course we all know this is about larger issues. The financial complex couldn't have chosen a worse venue. A senior property judge in Massachusetts has undoubtably been exposed to lamp black documents on vellum* in his formative years. Real vellum. We are talking Agawam Indian treaty implications of the de-annexation of Feeding Hills. These guys are not going to let standing issues slide.
IANAL but the insurance as cure issue looks like an attempt to muddy the waters. You either have a claim on a property or you do not.
I know about vellum documents from the 1600s because I've looked at them over a sub-sewer issue back in the early 80s. We are talking Boston Public Library wearing gloves and a lower case "s" looking like an "f".
banks have been using third-party custodians to hold original documents for a long time
oh, and lets forget some banks store these docs in Mexico 'cause its cheaper...could you imagine if a whole big storage area went up in smoke and all docs were kaput....so much for paper trails
I think it's safe to say it will be a long time until the overhang is cleared.
Good job, Albrt. It looks to me like the overhang may just be beginning. At some point, I'm expecting to see a new wave of foreclosures as the modifications are seen to have failed.
On a related topic, John Mauldin is redefining "muddle through", and may be giving up. Or maybe we get the "new muddle through" to go with the "new normal". Here is Mauldin's latest (Warning: PDF)
oh, and lets forget some banks store these docs in Mexico 'cause its cheaper...could you imagine if a whole big storage area went up in smoke and all docs were kaput....so much for paper trails
oh, and lets forget some banks store these docs in Mexico 'cause its cheaper...could you imagine if a whole big storage area went up in smoke under GS orders and all docs were kaput....
The pool trustees in Ibanez named the wrong party on the notices because they had not updated the assignment stamps on the documents at the time they advertised the sale.
In a sense, this isn't so far different from incoming tea having tax stamps, which so aroused the ire of the wild colonial boys way back when...
Albrt - given the breached warranties, which assignors are on the hook for damage claims by the pool trustees? EDIT: and do the pool trustees have the ability to put the mortages back to the assignors?
Actually, I wonder if the overhang may be delayed so much that there won't be a wave. Sorting all this out could be an excellent WPA-type project for the next ten years or so.
Rob, I'm not sure I understand the issue you're raising about insurance. Insurance doesn't change your claim to title, it just means you have a title opinion from somebody who will supposedly back it up by litigating the case if your title is questioned.
The banks can't get full value from buyers if the title isn't insurable.
I can't answer that without looking at all the documents. As a guess, I would say just about everybody is probably on the hook for something. Plus the I-banks that created the securities are probably on the hook if they misrepresented what was in them.
"As a guess, I would say just about everybody is probably on the hook for something. Plus the I-banks that created the securities are probably on the hook if they misrepresented what was in them."
Maybe a chance for the purchasers of the securities to shift the risks of default back to the assignors and the i-banks- as well as collect damages.
I can think of nothing more worrisome than these title disputes being nationalized. So many of our current problems are the result of States Rights being impinged via Federal encroachment.
Silly Rob Dawg. These things ARE being done for your own good you know. Just give it a whirl, and lets see what happens before we go running around all whack-a-doodle with our hair on fire shall we.
TAIPEI — At shops in the bustling Xinyang market in Shanghai, fake Apple iPhones and Bose speakers were displayed alongside bootleg copies of Microsoft’s Windows 7 operating system, a week before it officially was to go on sale.
“Which version do you want? Ultimate? Normal? English or Chinese?” one shopkeeper asked, proudly pointing out her ample supply of discs packed in unmarked white boxes
Barley (profile) wrote on Sun, 10/18/2009 - 2:19 pm
Dawg - your swimming uphill
Travesty of Treasury (profile) wrote on Sun, 10/18/2009 - 2:20 pm
Silly Rob Dawg.
In my defense. I'm not talking about what is but rather what is supposed to be. And by supposed to be I mean not only preferably but the way society has been trained with which to deal.
So, Mauldin puts his long-cherished "muddle through economy" in a box but still clings to a mildly positive GDP with no major crises after a second dip.
He is certainly one of the most balanced observers out there, especially in the investment arena, but I still find him leaning too far into the "cautiously optimistic" camp given the data he himself provides.
hmmm. bottom ad for me here is from Ditech - with subhead saying: "Home Financing from GMAC".
Mine sez "Say goodbye to blood pressure drugs," alongside the smiling mug of Hugh Downes. Since the news sends my adrenaline through the roof three or four times a day, I should probably say hello to them.
Was very interesting to read - at the bottom - who he had lunch with. The very top of the smart amoral scum-bag list. Wonder what they're investing in? Or, perhaps, when you are skimming enough you don't really need to invest.
RE: TJ's link to the speech concerning Global Warming Treaty
Globalization had to have an ending form of world government. Disaster politics requires a threat to foment unprecedented change. Global warming in reality references a myriad of environmental concerns which need to be addressed uniformly. The fallacy lies in believing you can eradicate nationalism and the inherent instinct we all carry to only recognize local concerns and rights. Perhaps the global elite perceive that no matter the cost steps must be taken to rectify the degradation of our planet to ensure a future for humanity. Species survival trumps individual rights. Unfortunately conflict and use of force will be the only way to ensure compliance. Mankind's demonstrated lack of foresight is our greatest weakness.
The destruction of the US economy and it's overwhelmingly disproportionate use of resources is a first step in correcting the global imbalance. We as a people will fight but to a degree we are fighting a lost cause because even if we win, we lose. Our way of life needs to change, I wish it could be self directed but human nature directs otherwise.
Perhaps the global elite perceive that no matter the cost steps must be taken to rectify the degradation of our planet to ensure a future for humanity
That's giving the global elite a lot of credit. Would be much easier, and more natural, to simply plan a nice gated community on high-ground with enough peasants to defend it.
It seems like it all boils down into a blame game, from the homeowner looking for an out vis a vis sloppy handling of legal titles, right on up to the Major Major Major Majordomos looking for a donkey to pin the tale on, as far as who is responsible for bringing down the house of cards, while the cognoscere of con just look on, untouchables.
I made mention years ago on HBB that America could very well end up resembling a scared, wounded and cornered big cat, with the sharpest claws and teeth ever seen on this here Earth. If the world presses us everyone will regret it.
But, this is an interesting line of psychotic paranoia that REAL Merican peasants would buy in an instant. I wonder if Faux News has thought of this one: LIBERAL world conspiracy to destroy Merican standard of living using LIBERAL global warming PROPAGANDA – I’m lycin it!!. Throw in some of THOSE PEOPLE and you've got a guaranteed dumbass movement.
It was created in 2006 when General Motors Acceptance Corp. sold a subsidiary, then known as GMAC Commercial Holding Corp., to an investor group led by Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co., Goldman Sachs Group and Five Mile Capital for $1.5 billion in cash plus more than **$7 billion in debt **at the peak of the housing market.*
ETA:
The source said the company will belong to its creditor group, which is made up of more than 50 banks and more than 50 hedge funds among others. The lead banks are Citigroup’s (C.N) Citibank and JPMorgan Chase
O/T: GDP
Q2 GDP was $14.1512 tn, so for 3% you need a QoQ boost in spending of $425bn [if it is annualized growth you need 0.74% QoQ growth, or $105bn of net positive for GDP vs last quarter] 1, 2
$400bn is likely, but that majority of that would be a very temporary increase in government spending.
Final sales of domestic production (includes improvement to net exports, adjusted for inventory change) ~+150bn
Fixed Private investment is on course for a neutral contribution ~+0
Government +~$250bn
That'll get you 2.8% GDP growth QoQ, or 1.06% without government spending.
(Reduction in inventories should be larger than change in PCE and FPI combined)
Which leaves a very vulnerable Q4. Planned peak of government spending as stimulus spending is not continued, and local & state governments balancing their budgets ($168bn gap for 2010).
Foreign central banks have begun currency interventions, and this is the season of peak US imports. It is very unlikely that net exports will continue improving without an actively depreciating currency in the near term (net exports have consistently added 2% annualized GDP growth instead of subtracting as happened in the surplus countries) If it stalls, companies will abandon their prepared expansion plans. They have waited until Q4 not randomly, but because they want to wait and see an increase in demand before taking the plunge
If the economy can keep it's head above water until February, this will be a double dip. But a weak one, not led by credit or inventory. Reprieve lasts about a year on fixed investment backed by government acting as the borrower of last resort. Well that, and continued improvements to net exports. There is something of an all fronts trade war beginning with 100% tariffs augmenting either currency levels, or health&safety regulations aka soft-tariffs.
If the GDP reported is 3% and up, you will see the revisions with inventory. If GDP is over 2% in Q3, it will be negative in Q4. In my rough opinion.
Someone is holding that debt . . . and it isn't KKR.
EDIT - found the answer to my question:
Bloomberg - Banks led by Citigroup Inc., Credit Suisse Group AG, Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc arranged $5.5 billion of bank facilities and a $5.25 billion bridge loan in March 2006 for Capmark’s acquisition from General Motors Corp.
You miss the point entirely, perhaps intentionally to push one of your favorite buttons.
My years-ago comment had nothing to do with political infighting. It had everything to do with an entire country seeing its standard of living decline dramatically whilst having the world attempting to dictate terms to it, let alone exact additional pounds of flesh.
It's also not intended as a warning, just an observation as to where we may be headed (and one that frightens me).
You miss the point entirely, perhaps intentionally to push one of your favorite buttons.
Well, of course. But, I was responding ALSO to comment about "the world's elite" somehow having a master plan to reduce America's greenhouse gases by reducing our standard of living and - thereby - saving humanity (very nice of the world's elite to do this, btw). I then saw YOUR comment about "America being backed into a corner" which then got me thinking how I'd react if - say - I was a Faux News style patriot. Which is what lead to my snarky comment.
GDP deflator is probably not going to do much what do you think
I know it hasn't been a factor for a while, but I'd read something that suggested it just might be in Q3. I went looking for the article but couldn't find it.
gdp growth contribution breakdown
whatever happens, net exports will be a reliable plus, the rest will be a wash due to inventory, and it all comes down to government spending
kind of an anti-climactic gdp release
don't get me wrong, people paid by the government spend their money just like anyone else, but it's the explicitly temporary nature of the increase which in my view does not last long enough for inventories to first finish unwinding, before you can get that double-dip recovery
totally agree. Collectively we in the US need to take a 80% reduction in our standard of living to be in line with the rest of the world (i.e., 25% of the resources for 5% of the people will revert to something like 5% of resources for 5% of the people). What complicates things is that the 80% reduction will NOT be uniform. The lower classes and the newly UE will have an almost 100% reduction in their standard of living. The titans on Wall Street will actually have their standard of living go UP (negative reduction).
The middle class that manage to keep their jobs will take a haircut between 0 and 100% in the form of a depreciated dollar and rising costs against stagnant wages.
The reality is that some entity owns or controls these mortgages. The other reality is that foreclosing without proper documentation can lead to problems.
Collectively we in the US need to take a 80% reduction in our standard of living ..
Would that mean yearly salary or just smaller plasma TV's?
The problem is that my friendly Wells Fargo mortgage banker might not warm to the idea of dropping my mortgage by half...
OT, but I'm finding the FOMC minutes are just a mine of comedy... Here's an except from Dec 2003 where someone has raised the issue of outsourcing:
CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. Do you want to know something? These workers are not
as skilled as some people think. The entire skill level in the United States continues to rise, and
these jobs that are being outsourced require what we now would call below-average skills.
We’re not sending off to India the work that requires really sophisticated software knowledge. A
good deal of the work being sent off is the overnight processing and standard data-crunching
services that in the twenty-first century involve a relative skill level not significantly different
from certain important manual labor skills a hundred years ago.
In fact, Greenspan was completely wrong. In 2003, I was working for a large oil service co., and we were offshoring to Indian dudes with a salary cost of $120k a year. These guys were the cream, and very skilled if used correctly.
Instead of looking at the destabilizing effects of endless wars, destructive economic/finance cycles, and exploitative 'social' revolutions, the focus now in this Meltdown is on 'global climate change'. Nice switch.
Developing 'alternative energy' sources which real environmentalists have been begging for for decades should be a top priority as oil goes up in euros from inevitable spread of wars in the Middle East...
Global famine (more than 'global climate change') will be the humanitarian issue needing resolution when the global credit
meltdown gets worse.
But, how long will this take? Until the last glacier melts away nothing will really change, after that - look out - as the rivers will dry up. However, this won't happen for about 50 - 75 years. People will have the opportunity to make a rational decision before that, namely 1) don't have any more kids because the world is going to hell-in-a-handbasket - the pessimistic option -OR- 2) keep having kids because things are looking up and humanity is progressing and people will cooperate to solve problem - the optimistic (self-delusional?) option. As 90% of humanity are pollyanna optimists, guess which option will be chosen? AND, as 90% of these people's kids will be optimists they won't really care about global warming because things are always getting better.
Therefore, global warming is ONLY an issue for pessimists. Luckily I'll be dead before all this and I don't have any kids.
The Global Crash coming IS going to reduce energy use AND pollution.
Except that dirty, cheap coal will look more inviting, as you shiver in your walk up.
We will see who can deliver the cheapest- NG or coal.
Umm, I was soothing myself reading a book about the Black Plague--
horrible stuff happening to people long ago and far away, to paraphrase
somebody, and there were some comments about the population swelling
Malthusianly between 1000 and 1250 because of. . . . global warming (having
nothing to do with people, presumably). Then after 1250 there were too
many people for the resources and population was on the ragged edge for
the plague of 1347-8-ish. People were subject to famines, wars, fithy streets,
houses and bodies, and weakened.
"Wow! Part of it has to be people just can't (or won't) pay the govt. "
maybe. Also, failed businesses often go broke while owing taxes they have to collect on behalf of the government, like federal employment or state sales taxes. Borrowing from Uncle Sam (or the state) is a last resort.
Would that mean yearly salary or just smaller plasma TV's?
The plasma TV (thing you want) will be quite cheap compared to the power needed to run it (thing you need). Might even be given away at some point. I wouldn't be surprised to see the same with houses a great distance from job centers in climates requiring heat or cooling.
Many different ways to get there. Cereal box becomes smaller as prices stays the same. Price of gas rises. Etc.
Umm, I was soothing myself reading a book about the Black Plague--
“- is like that of the American Indians at the height of the genocide in the late nineteenth century. At that point, there was no question of winning the battle. What remained to be done was to keep hold of what it meant to be human”
Do any of us want to hold onto that?
– Stephanie Miles
Greenspan was just parroting the standard self-delusional REAL Merican belief that all Mericans are above average. Greenspan - like all true believers in economic ideology - can't admit that huge numbers of Mericans are AVERAGE. Their ideology has no place for the AVERAGE people. We outsourced ALL our average jobs. Guess what, there's nothing left for the AVERAGE people do to. Except be screwed by the smarter-than-average amoral scum-bags that run the place.
NaRm,
The Global Credit Meltdown will mean lower birth rates maybe as 'middle class' families decide they can't afford children or more children due to weak finances and employment prospects...
Clean coal...heh. Anyone tracking the damage done to harvest NG. Ironic to destroy our groundwater to feel better about clean air. Nuclear power plants seem to me to be the better short term solution. Everything has a cost. The future will bring a fond remembrance when we could destroy another countries environment for our energy needs.
Actually the big death of the Native Americans was prolly in the first century or
2 after Columbus.
True,the main genocide, mostly from new pathogens. But the last grasp of Native American culture, as it was disappearing, was in the late 1800's, as it became apparent everything was going to go.
"State income tax collections down 16% YOY (all states). Interesting, because wages are pretty flat and employment is not down 16%."
The reason is that, even on the state level, the top 5% of wage earners pay over 50% of all income taxes. All those high wage job losses and lost bonuses on Wall Street knocked the hell out of income tax collections.
It doesn't matter really what WE do, exactly. It's what China and India do. If the Chinese and Indians even get to half the existing western standard of living (meaning, lots of electricity, hummers, large houses to show off to the neighbors) the current pollution levels will be dwarfed by what's coming. But, it doesn't matter really. Dick Cheney - as always - summed it up best when he said "The worlds going to get hotter, get used to it". He probably told the person to F-off after answering the question too. The optimists will think everything is great anyway. Dude, isn't it great having 100 degree days at the south-pole? Like dude, totally dude. Can't get any better than this dude, surf's up!
Real property law is slightly different everywhere, sometimes
a whole lot different. I did claims work for American Title, now some other name,
in different parts of the country. Solutions tended to converge, but some places
like little Rhode Island had never had the opportunity to consider an issue even.
Even it no one could insure these titles, it is highly unlikely that anybody other than
the former owner would litigate anything, and you can pay them a relatively
small amount for a quit claim deed.
An interesting speculation for a low priced investment for the adventurous.
You might have to hold for a statute of Limitations to pass.
...(meaning, lots of electricity, hummers, large houses to show off to the neighbors) the current pollution levels will be dwarfed by what's coming. But, it doesn't matter really.
You left out consume meat even quarter as much as average Merican. There is going to be big profit in growing Lamb and Goat on US soil soon.
Former Federal Reserve governor Mishkin.
Mishkin was one of the smarter members. He resigned on May 2008, effective Aug 31, 2008.
While he was conventional, he was practical first.
His last public speech on the emerging financial crisis said financial institutions needed to be recapitalized, and there needs to be new regulation to prevent banks from acting so stupid in the future. Considering his term was supposed to expire in 2014, I'm not sure why he resigned.
He went back to Columbia Business School. He would have guessed that there was a major financial mess ahead, and he might have wanted to avoid that. He was probably more in favor of new regulation than Bernanke, but he wouldn't have known Bernanke would be reappointed at that time. Maybe he wanted to be in a position to write the new book on financial systems.
Anyways, just wanted to share 2 comics from his textbook. http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/1643/picture1kp.png http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/8742/picture2jd.png
The Navaho and Hopi retain a whole lot of their culture, at
least if that mystery writer, whose name now eludes me, is
correct.
But yes,so much gone good and bad.
Suppose a manageable amount of disease. Would the Spaniards talked
the Aztecs out of ripping hearts out? Could the Aztecs persuaded the Spaniards
of the benefits of large beautiful cities and cleanliness?
Well probably not. But there would have been tremendous cross fertilization
of ideas.
You only have to talk to a few teachers, or look at our test scores.
Obviously there are still a good chunk of smart people still available, but the broad majority are surely slipping further and further behind in the maths, science and english subjects that are a basic toolkit for obtaining and maintaining any reasonable job.
NaRm,
Although China & India economies have been growing somewhat(Fareek Z) I don't see the small middle classes there growing fast in a global deflation and credit freeze and if they do they will have to pay an (Obama) NWO 'carbon tax' back to the West. Anyone seen the carbon debt 'treaty'? How much will the U.S. owe?
the top 5% of wage earners pay over 50% of all income taxes.
I've gone from paying at least $30k per year to nothing.
My taxes this year will probably be zero, something I've never had since I started working full-time in 1978.
For anyone that cares, I was goofing with an SOA trend graph when I suddenly realized something interesting. I can't believe I never realized it in the past fifteen years. I've known the graphs fluctuate and have long-term direction but I never realized before that those T/A fluctuation are most likely the result of meme terminations, the end of feedback wave returning to its point of origin and a state of resolution. In the case of this graph, it's a re-affirmation of the long-term trend and re-launch of a new meme cycle. I can see it now.
Obviously there are still a good chunk of smart people still available, but the broad majority are surely slipping further and further behind in the maths, science and english subjects that are a basic toolkit for obtaining and maintaining any reasonable job.
Perfect timing, since there are fewer "reasonable" jobs to maintain.
BTW, are you British?
Suppose a manageable amount of disease. Would the Spaniards talked
the Aztecs out of ripping hearts out? Could the Aztecs persuaded the Spaniards
of the benefits of large beautiful cities and cleanliness?
I'd pick door number 3. Large groups of males of equal strength will always gleefully kill each other in glorious wars. Talkin' an' persuadin' is for WOMEN. Real men act!
The rich and powerful are often perfectly content to let people
starve if necessary.
The British are supposed to be civilized, but when the potatoes
rotted and there was a drought in India, they were perfectly willing
to let the starving starve.
I belive grain was exported in the height of the potato famine from
Ireland. Don't know much about India.
Each new cycle bottoms out and restarts a new uptrend.
The bandwidth associated with that meme dissipates (falls off) until it reaches a bottom and then there's a reassertion of the meme but to a greater degree. I can't believe never realized this. It's like waves at the beach. As the tide is coming in, the waves reaching shore are larger and larger. The waves actually represent some sort of periodicity of impedance within the Global Mind. That's an awesome realization, at least for me.
Yes, I left the UK in late 90's, and have been based in Texas ever since.
Sadly, the reasons I left the UK are starting to appear here. No decently paid jobs at any price for many sections of the populace, and the resulting formation of a restless underclass, increasing crime etc.
Hmmm, what's next? We are already seeing the rise in retirement onto disability. The government will respond to this by tightening the screws on SS and related 'benefits'. This will be ugly for the many people for whom a government lifeline is the only thing keeping them above water.
Declining state and federal revenues dictate that outgoings be reduced.
The indians here got along well with white settlers, the aboriginals having lived perhaps 1,000 years or so, and relations were good, and then all the indians started dying. The only thing they did differently from the new arrivals, was they all had sweat lodges, so every last one was burned down in fear that they were spreading whatever was killing the natives, but not the newcomers. All that's left of their 1,000 years or so of existence, is bedrock mortars all over the place, where they would grind acorns, which was about 2/3rds of their diet.
I don't see the small middle classes there growing fast in a global deflation and credit freeze
I agree. I'm talking about "global warming" as a problem - in general - and only looking at the US or "the west' as the "source" of the problem. Sure, if we have global deflation, and world economic output decreases, that will - in the short term - "help". But, "global warming" has NO solution; with 7 billion people on the planet and with 5 billion of them wanting to live like REAL Mericans. Hell, who wouldn't. And, governments will do what it takes to keep their peasant from revolting, and will create job job job which means growth growth growth which means warmer warmer warmer. Just as China is doing. Plus it doesn't matter how many or what percentage of people "reach middle class". The problem is you've got BILLIONS trying to reach middle-class using more and more and more energy and making things warmer and warmer and warmer.
The Little Ice Age coincided with a series of astonishing pandemics. The best documented began in October of 1347. Twelve galleys, heavy with trade from Caffa, sailed into the port of Messina, their Genoese crews groaning from sickne ss in the holds.
... Over the next four years, as many as 50 million people perished—representing half the inhabitants of Italy, the Balkans, Hungary, Lithuania, Germany, France, Spain, Ireland, Scotland, England, Norway, Sweden, Syria, and Palestine, as well as parts of Egypt, the Ottoman Empire, and Azerbaijan.
... And the Black Death was not the only pandemic of the late Middle Ages. The same bacterium had arrived in China a decade before, killing perhaps as many as 50 million. When Hernán Cortés invaded the Valley of Mexico in 1519, his armies brought smallpox, influenza, and mumps, setting off among never–before-exposed people a series of devastating infections that, as the -diseases moved north and south, killed between 50 and 60 million over the following two hundred years.
... According to Ruddiman’s hypothesis, the deaths of so many in such a short time, over terrain extending from the Po Valley to the Incan Empire, left hundreds of millions of hectares abandoned to reforestation. The rebounding woodland devoured 13.8 billon tons of carbon, accounting for more than half the missing 10 ppm. The oceans ate the rest, probably as part of a feedback loop set off by the die-off.
... How the Little Ice Age ended is perhaps even more revealing than how it began. As population lurched toward recovery, settler cultures felt the tension between lands and hands, sending ax-wielding farmers into the forests of Massachusetts, the Volga River Valley, and Manchuria. Between 1700 and 1920 the world’s forests lost 537 million hectares, as agrarian societies increased their land use more than threefold. The carbon in all of those trees—together with soil itself, the greatest source on the surface of Earth—wafted up to thicken the eight-mile-high envelope that distinguishes this planet from Mercury. The world counted few coal-burning factories in 1850, but their numbers followed an accelerating curve as petroleum joined coal to provide the hydrocarbons that would generate two more centuries of economic growth. Under the new energy regime, atmospheric carbon levels rose by 100 ppm between 1750 and the present.
The cold we caused, By Steven Stoll, Harper's, Nov. 2009
(subscription required for online access)
Yes, I remember a movie called "28 Up". It tracked a number of folks from one elementary school and interviewed them every 7 years.
One fellow pursued a career in science and became a prof at Univ of Minnesota (I think.) I remember that he devoted some time in his interview trying to excuse why he'd left Britain. As a young scientist, it left an impression on me.
btw, it was a great movie. The larger point of the film was that large portions of our personalities are discernible at age 7.
Nearly every month I attend a business round table at a well respected business school. The most recent guest speaker explained how business owners will soon own only the intellectual property of the enterprise and control over it. They will hire only a few key people to check the metrics and farm out everything else. They won't even need a marketing dept. and production will be outsourced. Production jobs will increase overseas with very few new jobs created here. In the future more opportunities for the highly skilled and almost no new jobs for the less skilled. Good news for the former and bad news for everyone else.
I think this killing thing is a Darwinian response to over-population.
Na. males love to fight. Killing is just the result of fighting with no rules. Human history is just the BS stories of glorious male fights. You need to get in touch with your male side, i think.
liz,
War is an Industry also...
NaRm,
Recombinant flu viruses not found in nature where lab vaccines are not effective will control the global population growth possibly...
ehp,
Mishkin's crisis sequence is a downward spiral of declines in prices, adverse selections, moral hazard, and economic activity declines. How can the FED help to stop the spiral?
The most recent guest speaker explained how business owners will soon own only the intellectual property of the enterprise and control over it.
That will work for as long as intellectual property rights are respected. I think there is already a lot of evidence that not all countries are playing by the same rules.
And did this speaker explain how the business people wouldn't get
pitchforked?
The speaker doesn't have the concept of AVERAGE people either. He's never had to deal with Average people (except as employees perhaps, but they're just LOSERS!!!) Merica is in trouble because the AVERAGE people have less and less to do, get less and less from the society, and aren't allowed (morally) to participate in "the great screwing exercise" that we call capitalism.
He assumed that if you offer a better mouse trap, people will beat a path to your door. For him a better "mouse trap" is a better tailored to buyers and much more affordable.
traderwalt
That person made a lot of unstated assumptions. Sounds like someone who committed to a business strategy, and is now passing through denial of risk & peril.
edit:
Did this person have any experience with such a business model? Are they aware of the overhead costs on both sides of the transaction, that such a framework has only proven successful at coasting out a glidepath. Bill Gates is involved with a pure IP firm, but it goes after big ideas and is more of a social hobby than a productive venture. These models will exist, but even with ceteris paribus (the credit bubble never collapsed, US trade balance not about to flip) they won't be a dominant structure. There is still a range of vertical integration. Consultancies have been negatively impacted for the first time in a recession. The way companies fund themselves (and how they are rewarded for performance) is changing, and not by choice.
aren't allowed (morally) to participate in "the great screwing exercise" that we call capitalism.
Hey NARA,
if you accept a job from me @ minimum wage so I can save my money and buy a yacht even though you can't buy toilet paper without a budget...how's that my prob?
Those that can't are just LOSERS!!!! Welfare leaches. And this government just keeps supporting these people. Why, if EVERYONE was an (above average) entrepreneur - like "that speaker" - we wouldn't have any of these problems we have today.
And, honestly, I can't argue with your comment (and i know you aren't being serious, exactly). Other than "morals" I can't figure out why I should help/support/care-about the average/below-average people. In another country, I could make the excuse that "we're all XXXXX" so we gotta stick together. I just don't feel that as an Merican.
LL, you're probably correct. He said that any small business person has to focus on foreign sales from the beginning. And that also means enhancing the enterprise value of a small business at every stage in its development so that when "things get going" and a large company notices your growing business and then buys you out, you get the maximum value for your enterprise.
No rich with out the poor. Pretty much the way it is but even the rich know it is more profitable to have people with money to spend. Everything is out of balance and to be paid back with unearned money. Big problem.
Excellent EHP. Funny how the MSM constantly lets everyone see how "fortunate" they are by the disparity of the people living in cardboard boxes and those worried about the get-together & party favors Friday night.
Fear is a great incentive in a capatalistic society, and it works.
No rich with out the poor. Pretty much the way it is but even the rich know it is more profitable to have people with money to spend. Everything is out of balance and to be paid back with unearned money. Big problem.
When you're rich, wealth is the concern and not income
Wow. Very doomy tonight. And most of my friends find my musings hopelessly pessimistic. I stick by prediction: strong growth in the short term fueled by government stimulus, followed by years of stagnation.
NaRm,
'Intellectuals' are killed off or sent to gulags in the People's Revolutions so that the 'leaders' of the Dictatorship of the Proletariat' can 'lead' the average and below average people to live in equality. In the West, marginalization works to isolate or neutralize intellectuals who are not politically correct. 'Common Knowledge' is the order of the day.
I had an idea for a software program today. I doubt if avatars and Second Life will be much use for business. Instead it will be webcams. My idea is a program that creates a background behind the person. A library. A conference room. Something suitable. You can conference sitting on the throne and the viewer will see a nice library.
No. The military has always been a middle class/working class profession. The Pentagon has been keeping detailed records for decades based on the ZIP codes of recruit's homes.
I had an idea for a software program today. I doubt if avatars and Second Life will be much use for business. Instead it will be webcams. My idea is a program that creates a background behind the person. A library. A conference room. Something suitable. You can conference sitting on the throne and the viewer will see a nice library.
iChat already does this... Not tried it, but Stevo did a neat demo.
Surely the Military is becoming a (formerly) middle-class occupation? Hasn't it always been a lower-class occupation?
Well, yes you are right. But, during the magic times - when everybody walked up-hill to school both directions - there was at-least a draft to try to capture some of the nobility. Nobody even pretends now. But, yes, in general the lower-classes are always the canon-fodder.
Other than "morals" I can't figure out why I should help/support/care-about the average/below-average people.
how about pure naked self-interest?
In the 1980s, Peru got into financial difficulties, so they slashed government spending. One of the items cut was maintenance of their water and sewage treatment infrastructure.
Amazing thing happened. They got an outbreak of cholera. The ocean currents spread the bacteria up and down the Pacific Coast of South and Central America.
There are externalities to pushing hard times off on one segment of a society. They might get sick and spread the disease to you.
Wanted to run something past you, since you are both a poet and worldly historian... would you say that most societal collapses result from a sudden event or just an inexorable decline?
Naaa, nice try though. If I happened to be a smart amoral scum-bag and an optimist, I'd know (in my self-delusional optimistic fantasy-land in my brain) that I'd be "protected" from those losers. Now sure... I want "them" to have clean water (I want them to be clean just in case they happen to work in a restaurant that I frequent - you know, for appearances) but beyond THAT. Naaa. It still takes morals to give them a "good" standard of living. I'm have a problem with this "morals" thing.
When I was a kid in Balto, and the momster was buying fish at Lexington
market, there was a stall with a huge pile of iced raw oysters. Men would
come up and order a dozen, the oysterguy would get out his sharp
knife and slice them open, and then the buyer would slurp them down.
comparing job postings YoY
Negative: 2008 August to year end
Insignificant: January through March
Positive: April through July. June was strong, but July was a big increase.
Flat: August through October to date, although the next 2 weeks will be more important than the last 2 in determining that
I have a question for the group. Do you think the recent rise in Treasury yields is do to the end of QE, or optimism about the economy? On the drive back from Boston to Albany today I heard NPR declare the end of the recession.
traderwalt
The 3 hangups I have with his proposal being a popular trend.
- Intellectual Property feels like a very unresolved issue to me. In terms of cost (to register/maintain/avoid innocent infraction), global enforcement, and social acceptance. It has been a popular trend for a long time, but then again so was global trade.
- Labor costs. Unless a new demand sink appears, we are on a trajectory to rebalance trade deficits. Not only will the cost of labor in America drop, it will rise in China. This is about more than currency, there are many government incentives that have impacts. Distance/Time are very valuable in a JIT production environment and would cover up a significant difference
- Company structure. It seems that at present, this setup is only suitable to niche situations. For it to be a dominant, sustainable strategy one would be able to demonstrate the ability to register/maintain a patent and have there be a timely response from patent sharecroppers who competitively bid for the license. We are far from that today.
It sounds like he has perhaps confused how companies in America have raised 2/3rds of their funding from capital markets, whereas in Japan/Europe/Canada/Australia it it 2/3rds bank loans and 1/3rd capital markets. Capital markets during recent history have encouraged a lot of uneconomic behavior. Like issuing debt to pay a dividend. Or rewarding the share price of GE for issuing debt to buy a company, and then benefit from the same multiplier on a larger entity without adding any real value.
There are impediments more than culture or tax treatment that explain the divide of venture capitalism inside and outside of the US.
It may have been an omen or just curiosity, but a jet-black raven hung out around us (about 5 feet away) for about 10 minutes this morning, perhaps it was trying to tell us something about Monday?
(They call this insanity. I call it orchestrated.)
The CBO paints two future scenarios for the U.S. budget deficit and the national debt. But it plainly declares that fiscal disaster will strike in EITHER scenario. Furthermore ...
The CBO states that its fiscal disaster scenarios could cause severe economic declines for decades to come, including hyperinflation and destruction of retirement savings.
The CBO then proceeds to admit that even its worse-case scenario could be understated by a wide margin due to panic in the financial markets or vicious cycles that are beyond control.
Separately, in its Flow of Funds Report for the second quarter, the Federal Reserve provides irrefutable data that we are already beginning to witness the first of these consequences in the United States: an unprecedented cut-off of credit to businesses and consumers.
Meanwhile, the Treasury Department shows that America’s fate remains, as before, in the hands of foreigners, with the U.S. still owing them $7.9 trillion!
And despite all this, neither Congress nor the Obama Administration have proposed a plan or a timetable for averting these doomsday scenarios. Their sole solution is to issue more bonds, borrow more, and print more without restraint.
I don't think many people would disagree with anything you said. Furthermore, niche situations are the place to be if you are starting up a new business.
The lecturer's focus was on developing the maximum enterprise value. If I understood him correctly, he thinks that many small business people are too focused on the next sale and neglect how the company will grow longer term.
Straw poll:
Subject: WTO 10 years in the future (note: with TRIPS it covers intellectual property and not just goods, services)
Choices: Weaker or Stronger
EPH, I caught last night's comment on the prediction system that you're cooking up. The problem I have is that anything that uses past performance is going to fail when we get our reality check. In aviation terms we're a stalling aircraft. The pilots (TPTB) have decided to pull up to prevent us from losing altitude. Unfortunately all they're going to do is stall us out. At that point the controls become useless and using them as indicators of where the plane is headed will be a futile exercise.
The current system of globalization, which the WTO is supposed to regulate, is predictated on American global dominance. We won't be a superpower in 10 years, so I doubt the WTO will be much of a factor in global commerce.
It may have been an omen or just curiosity, but a jet-black raven hung out around us (about 5 feet away) for about 10 minutes this morning, perhaps it was trying to tell us something about Monday?
I think it was telling you, "Drop a few of those fries on the ground, willya?" Ravens are afraid of very little, and they're about as smart as birds come. It knew just how close it could come to you and still escape if need be.
I see ravens daily. If that brought disaster on a daily basis, this whole town would be a smoking crater.
But to err on the side of caution, he should really send everything to my financial service provider (FSP), as soon as possible.
Btw, did you know around here we have BOBFM?
seriously.
Quoting George W. Mantor: "The true holder of the Note was insured by AIG so they are covered. AIG and the banks were bailed out by taxpayers. So, unless the American tax payer can produce a “blue-ink” original Note, no one has standing to foreclose."
I need nothing more about George W. Mantor in order to conclude he is a complete light weight. Firstly, lost notes are not all that uncommon, private parties and Banks can conduct a judicial foreclosure in the event of lost note, federally insured institutions need not even no that in many non judicial foreclosure States, they only need to sign an affidavit that the are the holder of the note and that it has been lost. MERS can not no that because they are not federally insured, and really the MERS cases are really apples and oranges. Secondly, even if U.S Bank experienced a lose, it would have been because of some negligence or neglect on the part of U.S. Bank, AIG is not going to cover negligence and neglect. Thirdly, the extension of the chain of note ownership to the U.S. taxpayer was just sophomoric.
O shit. I forgot FEMA, but then I hate being redundant.
EXECUTIVE ORDER 10990 allows the government to take over all modes of transportation and control of highways and seaports.
EXECUTIVE ORDER 10995 allows the government to seize and control the communication media.
EXECUTIVE ORDER 10997 allows the government to take over all electrical power, gas, petroleum, fuels and minerals.
EXECUTIVE ORDER 10998 allows the government to seize all means of transportation, including personal cars, trucks or vehicles of any kind and total control over all highways, seaports, and waterways.
EXECUTIVE ORDER 10999 allows the government to take over all food resources and farms.
EXECUTIVE ORDER 11000 allows the government to mobilize civilians into work brigades under government supervision.
EXECUTIVE ORDER 11001 allows the government to take over all health, education and welfare functions.
EXECUTIVE ORDER 11002 designates the Postmaster General to operate a national registration of all persons.
EXECUTIVE ORDER 11003 allows the government to take over all airports and aircraft, including commercial aircraft.
EXECUTIVE ORDER 11004 allows the Housing and Finance Authority to relocate communities, build new housing with public funds, designate areas to be abandoned, and establish new locations for populations.
EXECUTIVE ORDER 11005 allows the government to take over railroads, inland waterways and public storage facilities.
EXECUTIVE ORDER 11051 specifies the responsibility of the Office of Emergency Planning and gives authorization to put all Executive Orders into effect in times of increased international tensions and economic or financial crisis.
EXECUTIVE ORDER 11310 grants authority to the Department of Justice to enforce the plans set out in Executive Orders, to institute industrial support, to establish judicial and legislative liaison, to control all aliens, to operate penal and correctional institutions, and to advise and assist the President.
EXECUTIVE ORDER 11049 assigns emergency preparedness function to federal departments and agencies, consolidating 21 operative Executive Orders issued over a fifteen year period.
EXECUTIVE ORDER 11921 allows the Federal Emergency Preparedness Agency to develop plans to establish control over the mechanisms of production and distribution, of energy sources, wages, salaries, credit and the flow of money in U.S. financial institution in any undefined national emergency. It also provides that when a state of emergency is declared by the President, Congress cannot review the action for six months. The Federal Emergency Management Agency has broad powers in every aspect of the nation. General Frank Salzedo, chief of FEMA's Civil Security Division stated in a 1983 conference that he saw FEMA's role as a "new frontier in the protection of individual and governmental leaders from assassination, and of civil and military installations from sabotage and/or attack, as well as prevention of dissident groups from gaining access to U.S. opinion, or a global audience in times of crisis."
I need nothing more about George W. Mantor in order to conclude he is a complete light weight
JD - I would agree that his analysis is extremely superficial. But I think the point is that AIG credit default swaps paid off the MBS investor if the security experienced as serious event of default or devaluation. It did not matter whose fault it was. It didn't even matter if you actually owned the security. If you held a credit default swap, you got paid the amount of the losses. So the taxpayers paid the actual losses many times over in some cases.
A case can only be brought by someone who has experienced an actual loss. If the orgininating lender has been paid by the securitizing lender, and the securitizing lender has been paid by the MBS investor, and the MBS investor has been paid by AIG, and AIG has been paid by the taxpayer, who has experienced an actual loss? Only the taxpayer.
Obviously this leaves out a lot of important details - for example, some of the investors in a mortgage pool may not have had CDS protection. So does that mean the MBS trustee can collect half the mortgage from the borrower? Or can the MBS trustee collect the other half of the debt on behalf of the insurer, even if the insurer doesn't really have an interest in the MBS pool?
General Frank Salzedo, chief of FEMA's Civil Security Division stated in a 1983 conference that he saw FEMA's role as a "new frontier in the protection of individual and governmental leaders from assassination, and of civil and military installations from sabotage and/or attack, as well as prevention of dissident groups from gaining access to U.S. opinion, or a global audience in times of crisis."
Of course, we're really only in trouble when large sections the US populace become 'dissidents'.
As long as we can prevent too many people getting hungry... We'll get indications from Detroit, LA or Birmingham if this starts to fail.
Nice post albrt, but I do want to address one point-
Title Insurance. The Ibanez banks brought these cases because they couldn’t get title insurance. For anyone who wants to avoid complications like this, title insurance is the key. Title insurance doesn’t guarantee that you’ll never have any problems – like any insurance company, sometimes title insurers will deny claims and leave you hanging. But for the most part it is the title insurer’s job to figure out if there are problems with your title, and then provide insurance to cover your legal expenses and your losses if any problems come up. The way you get title insurance is different in different states, but the policies are generally standardized in something called “ALTA” format. ALTA stands for “American Land Title Association.
This is a fairly common misperception, particularly among attorneys. Title companies look at risk, not problems, and while it may seem like I am splitting hairs, it really is an important distinction. There are any number of "legal" circumstances that a title insurer will refuse to insure, or insure over, such as an interest by adverse posession or a prescriptive easement. The reverse is also true- in some circumstances, title may not be legally correct, but the risk of a claim is so unlikely that the commitment or policy does not address it. Improperly done probate is the most common in my expeirence.
Albert, I assumed he was referring to PMI loses, and I am still inclined to think that he was talking about PMI loses. I can't say for sure, and I don't have any actual statistics, but I think it is statistically more likely that AIG was in some way involved from the PMI angle then from the credit default swap angle. I take some pride in the fact that I have only a vague idea how credit default swaps work so I can't refute any claims you make regarding reimbursement on credit default swap loses, any set of perverse or counter intuitive contractual arrangements could exist.
I don't think we disagree all that much. The primary way the insurers control their risk is by looking for problems in the chain of title and the survey. If there is a risk that is not addressed in the policy documents, then we get to fight about it afterwards.
Denniger's gonna stroke out....another reason not to clear the overhang.
Another great post from Albrt. He's even got the Ubernerd length thing going.
I think it's safe to say it will be a long time until the overhang is cleared. Judicial decisions tended to get more and more favorable toward borrowers during the last Great Depression, and I pretty much expect the same thing to happen during this one.
... which means that I (US taxpayer) own a lot more bad paper than I signed up for.
Case closed at this level. Of course we all know this is about larger issues. The financial complex couldn't have chosen a worse venue. A senior property judge in Massachusetts has undoubtably been exposed to lamp black documents on vellum* in his formative years. Real vellum. We are talking Agawam Indian treaty implications of the de-annexation of Feeding Hills. These guys are not going to let standing issues slide.
IANAL but the insurance as cure issue looks like an attempt to muddy the waters. You either have a claim on a property or you do not.
Tanta is that you.
An uberpost, yum.
banks have been using third-party custodians to hold original documents for a long time
oh, and lets forget some banks store these docs in Mexico 'cause its cheaper...could you imagine if a whole big storage area went up in smoke and all docs were kaput....so much for paper trails
albrt wrote:
Good job, Albrt. It looks to me like the overhang may just be beginning. At some point, I'm expecting to see a new wave of foreclosures as the modifications are seen to have failed.
On a related topic, John Mauldin is redefining "muddle through", and may be giving up. Or maybe we get the "new muddle through" to go with the "new normal". Here is Mauldin's latest (Warning: PDF)
Barley wrote:
oh, and lets forget some banks store these docs in Mexico 'cause its cheaper...could you imagine if a whole big storage area went up in smoke under GS orders and all docs were kaput....
There. Fixed that for ya.
Thx Dawg. I know those GS sleepers are everywhere.
If the guy in the video linked in this Denninger post is correct, IMO there will be another world war within a decade.
Warning: Global Climate Scam - The Market Ticker
In a sense, this isn't so far different from incoming tea having tax stamps, which so aroused the ire of the wild colonial boys way back when...
Albrt - given the breached warranties, which assignors are on the hook for damage claims by the pool trustees? EDIT: and do the pool trustees have the ability to put the mortages back to the assignors?
Actually, I wonder if the overhang may be delayed so much that there won't be a wave. Sorting all this out could be an excellent WPA-type project for the next ten years or so.
Rob, I'm not sure I understand the issue you're raising about insurance. Insurance doesn't change your claim to title, it just means you have a title opinion from somebody who will supposedly back it up by litigating the case if your title is questioned.
The banks can't get full value from buyers if the title isn't insurable.
"which assignors are on the hook?"
I can't answer that without looking at all the documents. As a guess, I would say just about everybody is probably on the hook for something. Plus the I-banks that created the securities are probably on the hook if they misrepresented what was in them.
nice post albrt
thx
"As a guess, I would say just about everybody is probably on the hook for something. Plus the I-banks that created the securities are probably on the hook if they misrepresented what was in them."
Maybe a chance for the purchasers of the securities to shift the risks of default back to the assignors and the i-banks- as well as collect damages.
Meta observation follows.
I can think of nothing more worrisome than these title disputes being nationalized. So many of our current problems are the result of States Rights being impinged via Federal encroachment.
O/T
Suicide bombers now active in Iran...oh, geezzz.
Might be a good time to get some oil futures
Breitbart.com
Dawg - your swimming uphill
Silly Rob Dawg. These things ARE being done for your own good you know. Just give it a whirl, and lets see what happens before we go running around all whack-a-doodle with our hair on fire shall we.
We here at GS just need a little more time......
"Suicide bombers now active in Iran...oh, geezzz."
What goes around comes around.
Terry wrote:
Yes, which may be one of the reasons the government seems so eager to be the ultimate purchaser of all these securities.
ah capitalism alive and well in china:
TAIPEI — At shops in the bustling Xinyang market in Shanghai, fake Apple iPhones and Bose speakers were displayed alongside bootleg copies of Microsoft’s Windows 7 operating system, a week before it officially was to go on sale.
“Which version do you want? Ultimate? Normal? English or Chinese?” one shopkeeper asked, proudly pointing out her ample supply of discs packed in unmarked white boxes
Barley (profile) wrote on Sun, 10/18/2009 - 2:19 pm
Dawg - your swimming uphill
Travesty of Treasury (profile) wrote on Sun, 10/18/2009 - 2:20 pm
Silly Rob Dawg.
In my defense. I'm not talking about what is but rather what is supposed to be. And by supposed to be I mean not only preferably but the way society has been trained with which to deal.
hmmm. bottom ad for me here is from Ditech - with subhead saying: "Home Financing from GMAC".
I thought GMAC died so that Ally could live. Or did Ditech forget who its father is?
So, Mauldin puts his long-cherished "muddle through economy" in a box but still clings to a mildly positive GDP with no major crises after a second dip.
He is certainly one of the most balanced observers out there, especially in the investment arena, but I still find him leaning too far into the "cautiously optimistic" camp given the data he himself provides.
A lot like CR.
JimPortlandOR wrote:
Mine sez "Say goodbye to blood pressure drugs," alongside the smiling mug of Hugh Downes. Since the news sends my adrenaline through the roof three or four times a day, I should probably say hello to them.
sm_landlord wrote:
Was very interesting to read - at the bottom - who he had lunch with. The very top of the smart amoral scum-bag list. Wonder what they're investing in? Or, perhaps, when you are skimming enough you don't really need to invest.
RE: TJ's link to the speech concerning Global Warming Treaty
Globalization had to have an ending form of world government. Disaster politics requires a threat to foment unprecedented change. Global warming in reality references a myriad of environmental concerns which need to be addressed uniformly. The fallacy lies in believing you can eradicate nationalism and the inherent instinct we all carry to only recognize local concerns and rights. Perhaps the global elite perceive that no matter the cost steps must be taken to rectify the degradation of our planet to ensure a future for humanity. Species survival trumps individual rights. Unfortunately conflict and use of force will be the only way to ensure compliance. Mankind's demonstrated lack of foresight is our greatest weakness.
The destruction of the US economy and it's overwhelmingly disproportionate use of resources is a first step in correcting the global imbalance. We as a people will fight but to a degree we are fighting a lost cause because even if we win, we lose. Our way of life needs to change, I wish it could be self directed but human nature directs otherwise.
Externalized Costs wrote:
That's giving the global elite a lot of credit. Would be much easier, and more natural, to simply plan a nice gated community on high-ground with enough peasants to defend it.
Jim - GMAC owns DiTech and Ally.
It seems like it all boils down into a blame game, from the homeowner looking for an out vis a vis sloppy handling of legal titles, right on up to the Major Major Major Majordomos looking for a donkey to pin the tale on, as far as who is responsible for bringing down the house of cards, while the cognoscere of con just look on, untouchables.
I made mention years ago on HBB that America could very well end up resembling a scared, wounded and cornered big cat, with the sharpest claws and teeth ever seen on this here Earth. If the world presses us everyone will regret it.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
But, this is an interesting line of psychotic paranoia that REAL Merican peasants would buy in an instant. I wonder if Faux News has thought of this one: LIBERAL world conspiracy to destroy Merican standard of living using LIBERAL global warming PROPAGANDA – I’m lycin it!!. Throw in some of THOSE PEOPLE and you've got a guaranteed dumbass movement.
Jim - also note that GMAC subsidiary Residential Capital, which owns GMACs residential lending business, including DiTech, is sucking air big time: UPDATE: GMAC, Key For Auto Indus, May Cost Taxpayers A Bundle
Looks like all of those TARP profits Timmy was talking about are going to be sucked up by AIG, GM, Chrysler and GMAC, among others.
(a well Fed Unabanker has just devoured a TARPon, with all the fix-ins' and appears bloated beyond imagination...)
Maitre d': And finally, a wafer thin mint bonus.
YouTube - Mr Creosote (Monty Python)
And the CRE spinoff of GMAC, Capmark, is about out of reserves for bad loans.
On Capmark, too bad KKR, Five Mile Partners and Goldman Sachs.
EDIT - who are the big holders of Capmark debt?
I'm stepping away for a little bit. Thanks for the kind remarks, and I'll check on the thread later.
Probably the three you mentioned?
ETA:
The source said the company will belong to its creditor group, which is made up of more than 50 banks and more than 50 hedge funds among others. The lead banks are Citigroup’s (C.N) Citibank and JPMorgan Chase
O/T: GDP
Q2 GDP was $14.1512 tn, so for 3% you need a QoQ boost in spending of $425bn [if it is annualized growth you need 0.74% QoQ growth, or $105bn of net positive for GDP vs last quarter] 1, 2
$400bn is likely, but that majority of that would be a very temporary increase in government spending.
Final sales of domestic production (includes improvement to net exports, adjusted for inventory change) ~+150bn
Fixed Private investment is on course for a neutral contribution ~+0
Government +~$250bn
That'll get you 2.8% GDP growth QoQ, or 1.06% without government spending.
(Reduction in inventories should be larger than change in PCE and FPI combined)
Which leaves a very vulnerable Q4. Planned peak of government spending as stimulus spending is not continued, and local & state governments balancing their budgets ($168bn gap for 2010).
Foreign central banks have begun currency interventions, and this is the season of peak US imports. It is very unlikely that net exports will continue improving without an actively depreciating currency in the near term (net exports have consistently added 2% annualized GDP growth instead of subtracting as happened in the surplus countries) If it stalls, companies will abandon their prepared expansion plans. They have waited until Q4 not randomly, but because they want to wait and see an increase in demand before taking the plunge
If the economy can keep it's head above water until February, this will be a double dip. But a weak one, not led by credit or inventory. Reprieve lasts about a year on fixed investment backed by government acting as the borrower of last resort. Well that, and continued improvements to net exports. There is something of an all fronts trade war beginning with 100% tariffs augmenting either currency levels, or health&safety regulations aka soft-tariffs.
If the GDP reported is 3% and up, you will see the revisions with inventory. If GDP is over 2% in Q3, it will be negative in Q4. In my rough opinion.
"Probably the three you mentioned?"
Someone is holding that debt . . . and it isn't KKR.
EDIT - found the answer to my question:
Bloomberg - Banks led by Citigroup Inc., Credit Suisse Group AG, Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc arranged $5.5 billion of bank facilities and a $5.25 billion bridge loan in March 2006 for Capmark’s acquisition from General Motors Corp.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
You miss the point entirely, perhaps intentionally to push one of your favorite buttons.
My years-ago comment had nothing to do with political infighting. It had everything to do with an entire country seeing its standard of living decline dramatically whilst having the world attempting to dictate terms to it, let alone exact additional pounds of flesh.
It's also not intended as a warning, just an observation as to where we may be headed (and one that frightens me).
EHP,
What about the GDP deflator? Have any data on that?
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Well, of course. But, I was responding ALSO to comment about "the world's elite" somehow having a master plan to reduce America's greenhouse gases by reducing our standard of living and - thereby - saving humanity (very nice of the world's elite to do this, btw). I then saw YOUR comment about "America being backed into a corner" which then got me thinking how I'd react if - say - I was a Faux News style patriot. Which is what lead to my snarky comment.
GDP deflator is probably not going to do much what do you think
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Well, okay then.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
I know it hasn't been a factor for a while, but I'd read something that suggested it just might be in Q3. I went looking for the article but couldn't find it.
albrt, thanks for the clear, informative posting. It reminds me, too, of Tanta and her posts.
OT, but...Iranians are not Arabs even though many are Muslim. They are Persians.
Ubernerds like me need this from time to time..... thanks for the fix yo..... suppotin a bros habbit yo......
gdp growth contribution breakdown
whatever happens, net exports will be a reliable plus, the rest will be a wash due to inventory, and it all comes down to government spending
kind of an anti-climactic gdp release
don't get me wrong, people paid by the government spend their money just like anyone else, but it's the explicitly temporary nature of the increase which in my view does not last long enough for inventories to first finish unwinding, before you can get that double-dip recovery
totally agree. Collectively we in the US need to take a 80% reduction in our standard of living to be in line with the rest of the world (i.e., 25% of the resources for 5% of the people will revert to something like 5% of resources for 5% of the people). What complicates things is that the 80% reduction will NOT be uniform. The lower classes and the newly UE will have an almost 100% reduction in their standard of living. The titans on Wall Street will actually have their standard of living go UP (negative reduction).
The middle class that manage to keep their jobs will take a haircut between 0 and 100% in the form of a depreciated dollar and rising costs against stagnant wages.
Barney Frank is at fault along with running a house of prostitution:
Peter J. Wallison: Barney Frank, Predatory Lender - WSJ.com
Thanks albrt...
The reality is that some entity owns or controls these mortgages. The other reality is that foreclosing without proper documentation can lead to problems.
Would that mean yearly salary or just smaller plasma TV's?
The problem is that my friendly Wells Fargo mortgage banker might not warm to the idea of dropping my mortgage by half...
Global famine (more than 'global climate change') will be the humanitarian issue needing resolution when the global credit meltdown gets worse.
OT, but I'm finding the FOMC minutes are just a mine of comedy... Here's an except from Dec 2003 where someone has raised the issue of outsourcing:
CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. Do you want to know something? These workers are not
as skilled as some people think. The entire skill level in the United States continues to rise, and
these jobs that are being outsourced require what we now would call below-average skills.
We’re not sending off to India the work that requires really sophisticated software knowledge. A
good deal of the work being sent off is the overnight processing and standard data-crunching
services that in the twenty-first century involve a relative skill level not significantly different
from certain important manual labor skills a hundred years ago.
In fact, Greenspan was completely wrong. In 2003, I was working for a large oil service co., and we were offshoring to Indian dudes with a salary cost of $120k a year. These guys were the cream, and very skilled if used correctly.
Greenspan was FULL OF SHIT on this KEY ISSUE.
Instead of looking at the destabilizing effects of endless wars, destructive economic/finance cycles, and exploitative 'social' revolutions, the focus now in this Meltdown is on 'global climate change'. Nice switch.
The Global Crash coming IS going to reduce energy use AND pollution.
The Global Crash coming IS going to reduce energy use AND pollution.
It will also cut down on how long you have to wait wait to spend $2.50 for coffee in the morning.
An interesting look at tax collections or the lack of.
http://www.rockinst.org/pdf/government_finance/state_revenue_report/2009-10-15-SRR_77.pdf
Coffee will soon be either 10 cents or $100. Will there be Starbucks?
Someone killed some leaders in Iran by a bomb. Maybe another Obama war.
Developing 'alternative energy' sources which real environmentalists have been begging for for decades should be a top priority as oil goes up in euros from inevitable spread of wars in the Middle East...
albrt,
Another nice post. Thank you I found it very informative.
yeah thx albrt...good to see judges going to bat for borrowers too...
The real question is what will Obama do with Iran. Is this another opportunity and he sits on his hands or will he make use of a good crisis?
Thought Pakistan was the more urgent problem now?
A+++++++
And a title policy is not a substitute for good title.
merchants of fear wrote:
But, how long will this take? Until the last glacier melts away nothing will really change, after that - look out - as the rivers will dry up. However, this won't happen for about 50 - 75 years. People will have the opportunity to make a rational decision before that, namely 1) don't have any more kids because the world is going to hell-in-a-handbasket - the pessimistic option -OR- 2) keep having kids because things are looking up and humanity is progressing and people will cooperate to solve problem - the optimistic (self-delusional?) option. As 90% of humanity are pollyanna optimists, guess which option will be chosen? AND, as 90% of these people's kids will be optimists they won't really care about global warming because things are always getting better.
Therefore, global warming is ONLY an issue for pessimists. Luckily I'll be dead before all this and I don't have any kids.
merchants of fear wrote:
My guess is less and less of 'owners' will even want to fight to stay in their homes or get them back somehow as homes vales continue to drop...
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
Opportunity for what? Another cool war?
Thanks, Mike, for that interesting link.
State income tax collections down 16% YOY (all states). Interesting, because wages are pretty flat and employment is not down 16%.
I think a big part of it is in small business and self-employed, who make estimated tax payments, if they can.
Maybe, a lot just can't. Whatever the reason, it should be mirrored in federal income tax collections.
Did you see Fiscal 2009 U.S. deficit came in less than forecast, $1.4 trillion?
Next year, federal Fiscal 2010...$2 trillion+ deficit?
In fact some buyers might be real irritated if the bank won't or can't take back their underwater 'home'...
Umm, I was soothing myself reading a book about the Black Plague--
horrible stuff happening to people long ago and far away, to paraphrase
somebody, and there were some comments about the population swelling
Malthusianly between 1000 and 1250 because of. . . . global warming (having
nothing to do with people, presumably). Then after 1250 there were too
many people for the resources and population was on the ragged edge for
the plague of 1347-8-ish. People were subject to famines, wars, fithy streets,
houses and bodies, and weakened.
adorno,
I thought we were going to get 'clean coal'...
Actually, on further review, Q2 total U.S. state sales taxes were down 27.5% YOY in nominal terms.
Wow! Part of it has to be people just can't (or won't) pay the govt.
Liz - Hard to believe that you came here for a cheer-up. I guess things could be worse.
Liz,
You'd think the swine flu (I mean H1N1) was going to be the modern day Black Plague according to some media & 'internet sources'...
"Wow! Part of it has to be people just can't (or won't) pay the govt. "
maybe. Also, failed businesses often go broke while owing taxes they have to collect on behalf of the government, like federal employment or state sales taxes. Borrowing from Uncle Sam (or the state) is a last resort.
Would that mean yearly salary or just smaller plasma TV's?
The plasma TV (thing you want) will be quite cheap compared to the power needed to run it (thing you need). Might even be given away at some point. I wouldn't be surprised to see the same with houses a great distance from job centers in climates requiring heat or cooling.
Many different ways to get there. Cereal box becomes smaller as prices stays the same. Price of gas rises. Etc.
lawyerliz wrote:
Do any of us want to hold onto that?
– Stephanie Miles
nah. Black Plague was almost indescribably horrible.
At minimum 1/3 of Europe died.
Some places up to 60% died. You had it good if only 1 of 5 died.
Much worse than Aids. At least today there are effective painkillers and
you have time to say good-bye to friends and relatives.
Imagine if at least one out of every 3 people you knew died in the the
next 3-4 months..
Jonathan wrote:
Greenspan was just parroting the standard self-delusional REAL Merican belief that all Mericans are above average. Greenspan - like all true believers in economic ideology - can't admit that huge numbers of Mericans are AVERAGE. Their ideology has no place for the AVERAGE people. We outsourced ALL our average jobs. Guess what, there's nothing left for the AVERAGE people do to. Except be screwed by the smarter-than-average amoral scum-bags that run the place.
NaRm,
The Global Credit Meltdown will mean lower birth rates maybe as 'middle class' families decide they can't afford children or more children due to weak finances and employment prospects...
Actually the big death of the Native Americans was prolly in the first century or
2 after Columbus.
Read 1491.
Clean coal...heh. Anyone tracking the damage done to harvest NG. Ironic to destroy our groundwater to feel better about clean air. Nuclear power plants seem to me to be the better short term solution. Everything has a cost. The future will bring a fond remembrance when we could destroy another countries environment for our energy needs.
Buried Secrets: Gas Drilling’s Environmental Threat - ProPublica
merchants of fear wrote:
That is like "Jumbo Shrimp, or "Military Intelligence"---
Lots of options on Iran even if it is just verbal support of the people in a timely manor.
---Collectively we in the US need to take a 80% reduction in our standard of living .. ---
based on what ? Why 80 % ? Why not 90 %
It would actually better to raise the non-developed world's standard of living, rather than driving more Americans into the ditch. Increasing the pie.
"CR Note: This is a guest post from albrt."
Missed this at first. Whew. Thought either I must have bumped my head or you did.
It's a dense read in places but he makes a lot of good points.
I wonder what will happen if I actually live to pay off this joint. What sort of document should I get?
lawyerliz wrote:
True,the main genocide, mostly from new pathogens. But the last grasp of Native American culture, as it was disappearing, was in the late 1800's, as it became apparent everything was going to go.
"State income tax collections down 16% YOY (all states). Interesting, because wages are pretty flat and employment is not down 16%."
The reason is that, even on the state level, the top 5% of wage earners pay over 50% of all income taxes. All those high wage job losses and lost bonuses on Wall Street knocked the hell out of income tax collections.
merchants of fear wrote:
It doesn't matter really what WE do, exactly. It's what China and India do. If the Chinese and Indians even get to half the existing western standard of living (meaning, lots of electricity, hummers, large houses to show off to the neighbors) the current pollution levels will be dwarfed by what's coming. But, it doesn't matter really. Dick Cheney - as always - summed it up best when he said "The worlds going to get hotter, get used to it". He probably told the person to F-off after answering the question too. The optimists will think everything is great anyway. Dude, isn't it great having 100 degree days at the south-pole? Like dude, totally dude. Can't get any better than this dude, surf's up!
purple,
'Increasing the pie' has failed. Somebody took the whole pie and left the crumbs...
90% of the indians that used to live here all died in a year or so, about 10 years after making contact with white man, in the 1850's.
Measles is what did them in, they had no immunity against something that gives us just a bit of discomfort when we are small children...
Luckily title disputes CAN'T be nationalized.
Real property law is slightly different everywhere, sometimes
a whole lot different. I did claims work for American Title, now some other name,
in different parts of the country. Solutions tended to converge, but some places
like little Rhode Island had never had the opportunity to consider an issue even.
Even it no one could insure these titles, it is highly unlikely that anybody other than
the former owner would litigate anything, and you can pay them a relatively
small amount for a quit claim deed.
An interesting speculation for a low priced investment for the adventurous.
You might have to hold for a statute of Limitations to pass.
Are either Byz or Pavel around yet?
volker,
You'll get a colorful 'document' from the Wizard of Oz saying 'Paid In Full, Thank You'
...(meaning, lots of electricity, hummers, large houses to show off to the neighbors) the current pollution levels will be dwarfed by what's coming. But, it doesn't matter really.
You left out consume meat even quarter as much as average Merican. There is going to be big profit in growing Lamb and Goat on US soil soon.
Former Federal Reserve governor Mishkin.
Mishkin was one of the smarter members. He resigned on May 2008, effective Aug 31, 2008.
While he was conventional, he was practical first.
His last public speech on the emerging financial crisis said financial institutions needed to be recapitalized, and there needs to be new regulation to prevent banks from acting so stupid in the future. Considering his term was supposed to expire in 2014, I'm not sure why he resigned.
He went back to Columbia Business School. He would have guessed that there was a major financial mess ahead, and he might have wanted to avoid that. He was probably more in favor of new regulation than Bernanke, but he wouldn't have known Bernanke would be reappointed at that time. Maybe he wanted to be in a position to write the new book on financial systems.
Anyways, just wanted to share 2 comics from his textbook.
http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/1643/picture1kp.png
http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/8742/picture2jd.png
Measles killed a LOT of people in Roman times.
The Navaho and Hopi retain a whole lot of their culture, at
least if that mystery writer, whose name now eludes me, is
correct.
But yes,so much gone good and bad.
Suppose a manageable amount of disease. Would the Spaniards talked
the Aztecs out of ripping hearts out? Could the Aztecs persuaded the Spaniards
of the benefits of large beautiful cities and cleanliness?
Well probably not. But there would have been tremendous cross fertilization
of ideas.
You only have to talk to a few teachers, or look at our test scores.
Obviously there are still a good chunk of smart people still available, but the broad majority are surely slipping further and further behind in the maths, science and english subjects that are a basic toolkit for obtaining and maintaining any reasonable job.
NaRm,
Although China & India economies have been growing somewhat(Fareek Z) I don't see the small middle classes there growing fast in a global deflation and credit freeze and if they do they will have to pay an (Obama) NWO 'carbon tax' back to the West. Anyone seen the carbon debt 'treaty'? How much will the U.S. owe?
Terry wrote:
I've gone from paying at least $30k per year to nothing.
My taxes this year will probably be zero, something I've never had since I started working full-time in 1978.
For anyone that cares, I was goofing with an SOA trend graph when I suddenly realized something interesting. I can't believe I never realized it in the past fifteen years. I've known the graphs fluctuate and have long-term direction but I never realized before that those T/A fluctuation are most likely the result of meme terminations, the end of feedback wave returning to its point of origin and a state of resolution. In the case of this graph, it's a re-affirmation of the long-term trend and re-launch of a new meme cycle. I can see it now.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=sca_meme_feedback_cycles
Jonathan wrote:
Perfect timing, since there are fewer "reasonable" jobs to maintain.
BTW, are you British?
Is China really still growing?
What about the electrical usage. Nobody has posted
that in a while.
lawyerliz wrote:
I'd pick door number 3. Large groups of males of equal strength will always gleefully kill each other in glorious wars. Talkin' an' persuadin' is for WOMEN. Real men act!
I particularly liked this rhetorical flourish:
killing is easier than learning or working.
I don't see any resolution in your graph, Broward. Splain?
The rich and powerful are often perfectly content to let people
starve if necessary.
The British are supposed to be civilized, but when the potatoes
rotted and there was a drought in India, they were perfectly willing
to let the starving starve.
I belive grain was exported in the height of the potato famine from
Ireland. Don't know much about India.
Each new cycle bottoms out and restarts a new uptrend.
The bandwidth associated with that meme dissipates (falls off) until it reaches a bottom and then there's a reassertion of the meme but to a greater degree. I can't believe never realized this. It's like waves at the beach. As the tide is coming in, the waves reaching shore are larger and larger. The waves actually represent some sort of periodicity of impedance within the Global Mind. That's an awesome realization, at least for me.
Yes, I left the UK in late 90's, and have been based in Texas ever since.
Sadly, the reasons I left the UK are starting to appear here. No decently paid jobs at any price for many sections of the populace, and the resulting formation of a restless underclass, increasing crime etc.
Hmmm, what's next? We are already seeing the rise in retirement onto disability. The government will respond to this by tightening the screws on SS and related 'benefits'. This will be ugly for the many people for whom a government lifeline is the only thing keeping them above water.
Declining state and federal revenues dictate that outgoings be reduced.
The indians here got along well with white settlers, the aboriginals having lived perhaps 1,000 years or so, and relations were good, and then all the indians started dying. The only thing they did differently from the new arrivals, was they all had sweat lodges, so every last one was burned down in fear that they were spreading whatever was killing the natives, but not the newcomers. All that's left of their 1,000 years or so of existence, is bedrock mortars all over the place, where they would grind acorns, which was about 2/3rds of their diet.
merchants of fear wrote:
I agree. I'm talking about "global warming" as a problem - in general - and only looking at the US or "the west' as the "source" of the problem. Sure, if we have global deflation, and world economic output decreases, that will - in the short term - "help". But, "global warming" has NO solution; with 7 billion people on the planet and with 5 billion of them wanting to live like REAL Mericans. Hell, who wouldn't. And, governments will do what it takes to keep their peasant from revolting, and will create job job job which means growth growth growth which means warmer warmer warmer. Just as China is doing. Plus it doesn't matter how many or what percentage of people "reach middle class". The problem is you've got BILLIONS trying to reach middle-class using more and more and more energy and making things warmer and warmer and warmer.
I don't think the killing is particularly gleeful.
There are lots of studies of psychological damage done
to men and boys who were not suited to be warriors, trained
to kill and killing.
I think this killing thing is a Darwinian response to over-population.
Does the tide go out?
lawyerliz wrote:
Warren Buffet will definately notice when it does. Make sure you're not swimming naked.
The Little Ice Age coincided with a series of astonishing pandemics. The best documented began in October of 1347. Twelve galleys, heavy with trade from Caffa, sailed into the port of Messina, their Genoese crews groaning from sickne ss in the holds.
...
Over the next four years, as many as 50 million people perished—representing half the inhabitants of Italy, the Balkans, Hungary, Lithuania, Germany, France, Spain, Ireland, Scotland, England, Norway, Sweden, Syria, and Palestine, as well as parts of Egypt, the Ottoman Empire, and Azerbaijan.
...
And the Black Death was not the only pandemic of the late Middle Ages. The same bacterium had arrived in China a decade before, killing perhaps as many as 50 million. When Hernán Cortés invaded the Valley of Mexico in 1519, his armies brought smallpox, influenza, and mumps, setting off among never–before-exposed people a series of devastating infections that, as the -diseases moved north and south, killed between 50 and 60 million over the following two hundred years.
...
According to Ruddiman’s hypothesis, the deaths of so many in such a short time, over terrain extending from the Po Valley to the Incan Empire, left hundreds of millions of hectares abandoned to reforestation. The rebounding woodland devoured 13.8 billon tons of carbon, accounting for more than half the missing 10 ppm. The oceans ate the rest, probably as part of a feedback loop set off by the die-off.
...
How the Little Ice Age ended is perhaps even more revealing than how it began. As population lurched toward recovery, settler cultures felt the tension between lands and hands, sending ax-wielding farmers into the forests of Massachusetts, the Volga River Valley, and Manchuria. Between 1700 and 1920 the world’s forests lost 537 million hectares, as agrarian societies increased their land use more than threefold. The carbon in all of those trees—together with soil itself, the greatest source on the surface of Earth—wafted up to thicken the eight-mile-high envelope that distinguishes this planet from Mercury. The world counted few coal-burning factories in 1850, but their numbers followed an accelerating curve as petroleum joined coal to provide the hydrocarbons that would generate two more centuries of economic growth. Under the new energy regime, atmospheric carbon levels rose by 100 ppm between 1750 and the present.
The cold we caused, By Steven Stoll, Harper's, Nov. 2009
(subscription required for online access)
The settlers had different genes, not just sweat lodges.
Yes, I remember a movie called "28 Up". It tracked a number of folks from one elementary school and interviewed them every 7 years.
One fellow pursued a career in science and became a prof at Univ of Minnesota (I think.) I remember that he devoted some time in his interview trying to excuse why he'd left Britain. As a young scientist, it left an impression on me.
btw, it was a great movie. The larger point of the film was that large portions of our personalities are discernible at age 7.
Jonathan wrote:
Jezz, why didn't you go to NZ? Aren't there any jobs there?
Nearly every month I attend a business round table at a well respected business school. The most recent guest speaker explained how business owners will soon own only the intellectual property of the enterprise and control over it. They will hire only a few key people to check the metrics and farm out everything else. They won't even need a marketing dept. and production will be outsourced. Production jobs will increase overseas with very few new jobs created here. In the future more opportunities for the highly skilled and almost no new jobs for the less skilled. Good news for the former and bad news for everyone else.
And did this speaker explain how the business people wouldn't get
pitchforked?
lawyerliz wrote:
Na. males love to fight. Killing is just the result of fighting with no rules. Human history is just the BS stories of glorious male fights. You need to get in touch with your male side, i think.
liz,
War is an Industry also...
NaRm,
Recombinant flu viruses not found in nature where lab vaccines are not effective will control the global population growth possibly...
ehp,
Mishkin's crisis sequence is a downward spiral of declines in prices, adverse selections, moral hazard, and economic activity declines. How can the FED help to stop the spiral?
lawyerliz wrote:
Blackwater protection, walled communities, laser death rays, and if things go right for them, the US Army, Marines, Air Force (and FBI/CIA/DHS).
traderwalt wrote:
That will work for as long as intellectual property rights are respected. I think there is already a lot of evidence that not all countries are playing by the same rules.
Edit: Jim makes the point better than me. LOL.
lawyerliz wrote:
The speaker doesn't have the concept of AVERAGE people either. He's never had to deal with Average people (except as employees perhaps, but they're just LOSERS!!!) Merica is in trouble because the AVERAGE people have less and less to do, get less and less from the society, and aren't allowed (morally) to participate in "the great screwing exercise" that we call capitalism.
JP wrote:
RULES? Rules are for LOSERS. Didn't you pay attention to Cheney and Bush II?
He assumed that if you offer a better mouse trap, people will beat a path to your door. For him a better "mouse trap" is a better tailored to buyers and much more affordable.
Not if they can't afford ANY mouse trap.
traderwalt
That person made a lot of unstated assumptions. Sounds like someone who committed to a business strategy, and is now passing through denial of risk & peril.
edit:
Did this person have any experience with such a business model? Are they aware of the overhead costs on both sides of the transaction, that such a framework has only proven successful at coasting out a glidepath. Bill Gates is involved with a pure IP firm, but it goes after big ideas and is more of a social hobby than a productive venture. These models will exist, but even with ceteris paribus (the credit bubble never collapsed, US trade balance not about to flip) they won't be a dominant structure. There is still a range of vertical integration. Consultancies have been negatively impacted for the first time in a recession. The way companies fund themselves (and how they are rewarded for performance) is changing, and not by choice.
'Social Darwinism' will produce response to 'overpopulation' under the deceptive cover of 'equality for all'.
JimPortlandOR wrote:
Apparently Obama did.
Hey NARA,
if you accept a job from me @ minimum wage so I can save my money and buy a yacht even though you can't buy toilet paper without a budget...how's that my prob?
i think you're just jealous.
lawyerliz wrote:
Those that can't are just LOSERS!!!! Welfare leaches. And this government just keeps supporting these people. Why, if EVERYONE was an (above average) entrepreneur - like "that speaker" - we wouldn't have any of these problems we have today.
lawyerliz wrote:
When you're starving, mice are a nice starter for a meal of
one mouthful: crunch, munch, swallow. like an oyster
Did the Romans eat dormice as a snack? Willingly?
Mice ramen is an acquired taste.
lawyerliz wrote:
Not if they can't afford ANY mouse trap.
Give them a ninja loan and a dozen credit cards, then they have the mouse trap!
I like to watch people eat raw oysters. But not
to eat them myself.
There is a Hugh Downs ad.
He must still be alive.
Blackwaterwannabe wrote:
And, honestly, I can't argue with your comment (and i know you aren't being serious, exactly). Other than "morals" I can't figure out why I should help/support/care-about the average/below-average people. In another country, I could make the excuse that "we're all XXXXX" so we gotta stick together. I just don't feel that as an Merican.
You mean, then they ARE the trapped mice.
Until they just refuse to pay back the loan and cards.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Without poor people, you cannot be rich
LL, you're probably correct. He said that any small business person has to focus on foreign sales from the beginning. And that also means enhancing the enterprise value of a small business at every stage in its development so that when "things get going" and a large company notices your growing business and then buys you out, you get the maximum value for your enterprise.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
HA!!! True, unless i'm self-delusional about my own skills.
It is not sufficient that I succeed. Others must fail. Rouchefoucaud (sp?)
lawyerliz wrote:
I keep expecting a projectile vomit when that blob of mucus passes into the esophagus. Gross! Like licking a big hocker off the sidewalk..
LL,
Yep that was a better mouse trap till it wasn't.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Everyone is -- it's human nature.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
Just don't feed the housecat regularly, and the mice won't play.
JimPortlandOR wrote:
Edit: O. M. G.!!!!
If I think about this line the next time I have raw oysters, SOMEBODY is gonna have to answer for it!!!
I understand that you don't chew, just swallow whole?
and the taste is from the sauce? Why not just drink the sauce?
No rich with out the poor. Pretty much the way it is but even the rich know it is more profitable to have people with money to spend. Everything is out of balance and to be paid back with unearned money. Big problem.
Excellent EHP. Funny how the MSM constantly lets everyone see how "fortunate" they are by the disparity of the people living in cardboard boxes and those worried about the get-together & party favors Friday night.
Fear is a great incentive in a capatalistic society, and it works.
lawyerliz wrote:
It's for the sexual performance affect. Everybody know THAT!
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
When you're rich, wealth is the concern and not income
The rich may know it, but they don't act like they know it.
Extreme distance for the rich from the poor is actually bad for
both.
LL, do European and Asian banks know what you can do for them in Florida? Hope so...
really Liz. ....doncha know?
We still love you.
Ok, Pavel isn't here, so I will say that being rich involves
a whole lot more than money.
The big question for Q4 is whether tightening in credit will hit the retailers.
Bearing in mind that a small top portion of the population has 40% of the purchasing power, the fall-off in Christmas spending might not be that bad.
And for the congenitally poor, it's just another crappy Christmas.
"Are either Byz or Pavel around yet?"
Yo.
lawyerliz wrote:
Which is even having an effect on the military. Military is becoming a lower-class "occupation'. That can't end well either.
Take some zinc pills and you will do fine.
lawyerliz wrote:
With the oysters? Hadn't heard that.
Bills improve their record to not very good, from previously horrible.
Wow. Very doomy tonight. And most of my friends find my musings hopelessly pessimistic. I stick by prediction: strong growth in the short term fueled by government stimulus, followed by years of stagnation.
NaRm,
'Intellectuals' are killed off or sent to gulags in the People's Revolutions so that the 'leaders' of the Dictatorship of the Proletariat' can 'lead' the average and below average people to live in equality. In the West, marginalization works to isolate or neutralize intellectuals who are not politically correct. 'Common Knowledge' is the order of the day.
Surely the Military is becoming a (formerly) middle-class occupation? Hasn't it always been a lower-class occupation?
"When you're rich, wealth is the concern and not income "
Sure it is as no one with a competitive mind or EGO wants to be second now days. Part of the problem.
Umm, just in case you aren't snarking, oysters have zinc.
Zinc is good for sex.
I had an idea for a software program today. I doubt if avatars and Second Life will be much use for business. Instead it will be webcams. My idea is a program that creates a background behind the person. A library. A conference room. Something suitable. You can conference sitting on the throne and the viewer will see a nice library.
"Did the Romans eat dormice as a snack? Willingly?"
Yes, and at Pompeii they found a pottery dormouse jar, in which the dormice were kept and fattened. I've seen a photograph.
As for oysters: How does a German open an oyster?
Jonathan:
No. The military has always been a middle class/working class profession. The Pentagon has been keeping detailed records for decades based on the ZIP codes of recruit's homes.
nova,
Been done
iChat already does this... Not tried it, but Stevo did a neat demo.
Jonathan wrote:
Well, yes you are right. But, during the magic times - when everybody walked up-hill to school both directions - there was at-least a draft to try to capture some of the nobility. Nobody even pretends now. But, yes, in general the lower-classes are always the canon-fodder.
I missed the dormouse jar.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
how about pure naked self-interest?
In the 1980s, Peru got into financial difficulties, so they slashed government spending. One of the items cut was maintenance of their water and sewage treatment infrastructure.
Amazing thing happened. They got an outbreak of cholera. The ocean currents spread the bacteria up and down the Pacific Coast of South and Central America.
There are externalities to pushing hard times off on one segment of a society. They might get sick and spread the disease to you.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Yo? I expect more from you!
Wanted to run something past you, since you are both a poet and worldly historian... would you say that most societal collapses result from a sudden event or just an inexorable decline?
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Ok. how?
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
placebo viagra, at best. most restaurant oyster eating is just showing off for the neighbors.
His yo was very poetic.
Didn't you notice?
liz,
Check out "Ghosts of Pompeii" by Pelligrino. It's a great read, and he describes the delicacy that was dormice.
nova wrote:
Brilliant idea. Make that an iPhone app that'll immediately "frame" the camera shots and you'll be rich.
Juvie--Ghosts of Pompeii. Will get it.
Jonathan wrote:
Figures. As they say, there's an app for everything!
nova wrote:
Will the software filter out any rude sounds from the conference call?
EHP
Really? Rats.
NorkaWest wrote:
Naaa, nice try though. If I happened to be a smart amoral scum-bag and an optimist, I'd know (in my self-delusional optimistic fantasy-land in my brain) that I'd be "protected" from those losers. Now sure... I want "them" to have clean water (I want them to be clean just in case they happen to work in a restaurant that I frequent - you know, for appearances) but beyond THAT. Naaa. It still takes morals to give them a "good" standard of living. I'm have a problem with this "morals" thing.
When I was a kid in Balto, and the momster was buying fish at Lexington
market, there was a stall with a huge pile of iced raw oysters. Men would
come up and order a dozen, the oysterguy would get out his sharp
knife and slice them open, and then the buyer would slurp them down.
I never got tired of watching.
comparing job postings YoY
Negative: 2008 August to year end
Insignificant: January through March
Positive: April through July. June was strong, but July was a big increase.
Flat: August through October to date, although the next 2 weeks will be more important than the last 2 in determining that
Well, off to dinner. (No oysters).
I have a question for the group. Do you think the recent rise in Treasury yields is do to the end of QE, or optimism about the economy? On the drive back from Boston to Albany today I heard NPR declare the end of the recession.
Merican is starting to sound like Lucifer, only without the sex.
NPR has been announcing the end of the depression, err, recession
for some weeks now.
Fie on them.
No so far away...
Taxes will be viewed as the surcharge you pay for having a job. Everyone will brag about how they love paying taxes.
EVP, sorry, I missed your reply. Yes, he has lots of hands on experience buying and selling companies and has written several books. Here's his website:
MidasNation™ | Building America One Business at a Time
"How does a German open an oyster?"
He raps his knuckles sharply on the table and shouts: "Open up!"
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Then you cannot be a true average Merican.
We'll have to give you a social promotion to a True Merican Leader (TM)
Midas died of his golden touch.
I guess that doesn't matter.
Or was it that he turned his beloved daughter into a golden statue?
I think it mattered to Midas, although only briefly.
Unfortunately most of the Unabankers have the Midas touch, albeit in reverse.
Leaden touch.
"How does a German open an oyster?"
He raps his knuckles sharply on the table and shouts: "Open up!"
Really? I thought they put them in the oven.
Appropriate musical interlude...
YouTube - Wolfhounds - Anti Midas Touch ICA 2006
Tony Hillerman, if no one else has chimed in yet...
It's amazing how quickly they've been able to re-inflate the bubble.
London Agents ‘Sold Out’ as Home Asking Prices Jump to Record - Bloomberg.com
Thanks Energy.
nova wrote:
Rockefeller was German?
Back to Black Plague.
You mean the current admin?
traderwalt
The 3 hangups I have with his proposal being a popular trend.
- Intellectual Property feels like a very unresolved issue to me. In terms of cost (to register/maintain/avoid innocent infraction), global enforcement, and social acceptance. It has been a popular trend for a long time, but then again so was global trade.
- Labor costs. Unless a new demand sink appears, we are on a trajectory to rebalance trade deficits. Not only will the cost of labor in America drop, it will rise in China. This is about more than currency, there are many government incentives that have impacts. Distance/Time are very valuable in a JIT production environment and would cover up a significant difference
- Company structure. It seems that at present, this setup is only suitable to niche situations. For it to be a dominant, sustainable strategy one would be able to demonstrate the ability to register/maintain a patent and have there be a timely response from patent sharecroppers who competitively bid for the license. We are far from that today.
It sounds like he has perhaps confused how companies in America have raised 2/3rds of their funding from capital markets, whereas in Japan/Europe/Canada/Australia it it 2/3rds bank loans and 1/3rd capital markets. Capital markets during recent history have encouraged a lot of uneconomic behavior. Like issuing debt to pay a dividend. Or rewarding the share price of GE for issuing debt to buy a company, and then benefit from the same multiplier on a larger entity without adding any real value.
There are impediments more than culture or tax treatment that explain the divide of venture capitalism inside and outside of the US.
It may have been an omen or just curiosity, but a jet-black raven hung out around us (about 5 feet away) for about 10 minutes this morning, perhaps it was trying to tell us something about Monday?
Rockefeller was German?
No, his real last name was Rockeinski. He denies it of course.
JD-
Sell everything at once and forward it to my financial service advisor.
I'll give you the Pay pal account when you get back to me.
Good work.
From money&markets:
(They call this insanity. I call it orchestrated.)
The CBO paints two future scenarios for the U.S. budget deficit and the national debt. But it plainly declares that fiscal disaster will strike in EITHER scenario. Furthermore ...
The CBO states that its fiscal disaster scenarios could cause severe economic declines for decades to come, including hyperinflation and destruction of retirement savings.
The CBO then proceeds to admit that even its worse-case scenario could be understated by a wide margin due to panic in the financial markets or vicious cycles that are beyond control.
Separately, in its Flow of Funds Report for the second quarter, the Federal Reserve provides irrefutable data that we are already beginning to witness the first of these consequences in the United States: an unprecedented cut-off of credit to businesses and consumers.
Meanwhile, the Treasury Department shows that America’s fate remains, as before, in the hands of foreigners, with the U.S. still owing them $7.9 trillion!
And despite all this, neither Congress nor the Obama Administration have proposed a plan or a timetable for averting these doomsday scenarios. Their sole solution is to issue more bonds, borrow more, and print more without restraint.
Quote the raven, never more.
I don't think many people would disagree with anything you said. Furthermore, niche situations are the place to be if you are starting up a new business.
The lecturer's focus was on developing the maximum enterprise value. If I understood him correctly, he thinks that many small business people are too focused on the next sale and neglect how the company will grow longer term.
Straw poll:
Subject: WTO 10 years in the future (note: with TRIPS it covers intellectual property and not just goods, services)
Choices: Weaker or Stronger
EPH, I caught last night's comment on the prediction system that you're cooking up. The problem I have is that anything that uses past performance is going to fail when we get our reality check. In aviation terms we're a stalling aircraft. The pilots (TPTB) have decided to pull up to prevent us from losing altitude. Unfortunately all they're going to do is stall us out. At that point the controls become useless and using them as indicators of where the plane is headed will be a futile exercise.
EHP:
The current system of globalization, which the WTO is supposed to regulate, is predictated on American global dominance. We won't be a superpower in 10 years, so I doubt the WTO will be much of a factor in global commerce.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
I think it was telling you, "Drop a few of those fries on the ground, willya?" Ravens are afraid of very little, and they're about as smart as birds come. It knew just how close it could come to you and still escape if need be.
I see ravens daily. If that brought disaster on a daily basis, this whole town would be a smoking crater.
But to err on the side of caution, he should really send everything to my financial service provider (FSP), as soon as possible.
Btw, did you know around here we have BOBFM?
seriously.
Quoting George W. Mantor: "The true holder of the Note was insured by AIG so they are covered. AIG and the banks were bailed out by taxpayers. So, unless the American tax payer can produce a “blue-ink” original Note, no one has standing to foreclose."
I need nothing more about George W. Mantor in order to conclude he is a complete light weight. Firstly, lost notes are not all that uncommon, private parties and Banks can conduct a judicial foreclosure in the event of lost note, federally insured institutions need not even no that in many non judicial foreclosure States, they only need to sign an affidavit that the are the holder of the note and that it has been lost. MERS can not no that because they are not federally insured, and really the MERS cases are really apples and oranges. Secondly, even if U.S Bank experienced a lose, it would have been because of some negligence or neglect on the part of U.S. Bank, AIG is not going to cover negligence and neglect. Thirdly, the extension of the chain of note ownership to the U.S. taxpayer was just sophomoric.
Stronger.
The PTB that control the WTO, WHO, FHA,CNN, FOX ad nauseum are the same that control the FED.
unless of course....something happens.
O shit. I forgot FEMA, but then I hate being redundant.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
This is what happens when you don't defend your borders and screen immigrants.
no
Interesting post on the Spanish bank BBVA at Euro Watch:
Euro Watch
JD wrote:
JD - I would agree that his analysis is extremely superficial. But I think the point is that AIG credit default swaps paid off the MBS investor if the security experienced as serious event of default or devaluation. It did not matter whose fault it was. It didn't even matter if you actually owned the security. If you held a credit default swap, you got paid the amount of the losses. So the taxpayers paid the actual losses many times over in some cases.
A case can only be brought by someone who has experienced an actual loss. If the orgininating lender has been paid by the securitizing lender, and the securitizing lender has been paid by the MBS investor, and the MBS investor has been paid by AIG, and AIG has been paid by the taxpayer, who has experienced an actual loss? Only the taxpayer.
Obviously this leaves out a lot of important details - for example, some of the investors in a mortgage pool may not have had CDS protection. So does that mean the MBS trustee can collect half the mortgage from the borrower? Or can the MBS trustee collect the other half of the debt on behalf of the insurer, even if the insurer doesn't really have an interest in the MBS pool?
Of course, we're really only in trouble when large sections the US populace become 'dissidents'.
As long as we can prevent too many people getting hungry... We'll get indications from Detroit, LA or Birmingham if this starts to fail.
I remember an early 80's Penthouse article about FEMA titled "Blueprint for Tyranny". Very enlightening.
Not to be overly pessimistic, but when a person(s) lose everything, they have nothing to lose.
Nice post albrt, but I do want to address one point-
Title Insurance. The Ibanez banks brought these cases because they couldn’t get title insurance. For anyone who wants to avoid complications like this, title insurance is the key. Title insurance doesn’t guarantee that you’ll never have any problems – like any insurance company, sometimes title insurers will deny claims and leave you hanging. But for the most part it is the title insurer’s job to figure out if there are problems with your title, and then provide insurance to cover your legal expenses and your losses if any problems come up. The way you get title insurance is different in different states, but the policies are generally standardized in something called “ALTA” format. ALTA stands for “American Land Title Association.
This is a fairly common misperception, particularly among attorneys. Title companies look at risk, not problems, and while it may seem like I am splitting hairs, it really is an important distinction. There are any number of "legal" circumstances that a title insurer will refuse to insure, or insure over, such as an interest by adverse posession or a prescriptive easement. The reverse is also true- in some circumstances, title may not be legally correct, but the risk of a claim is so unlikely that the commitment or policy does not address it. Improperly done probate is the most common in my expeirence.
Albert, I assumed he was referring to PMI loses, and I am still inclined to think that he was talking about PMI loses. I can't say for sure, and I don't have any actual statistics, but I think it is statistically more likely that AIG was in some way involved from the PMI angle then from the credit default swap angle. I take some pride in the fact that I have only a vague idea how credit default swaps work so I can't refute any claims you make regarding reimbursement on credit default swap loses, any set of perverse or counter intuitive contractual arrangements could exist.
Baron
I don't think we disagree all that much. The primary way the insurers control their risk is by looking for problems in the chain of title and the survey. If there is a risk that is not addressed in the policy documents, then we get to fight about it afterwards.
Tony Hillerman? Sadly, he died a short time ago.