30% of the largest industrial infrastructure ever assembled in the world is idle. Far more important than housing yet 30% vacancy rates would cause panic. We worry about the ripple effects of the housing overhang resulting from scaring away future investment. Meet that problem's big brother.
Big jump in auto production, will that be reversed in next months report?
I'm thinking the same thing. Reports I've heard is that--in the auto plants near where I live--overtime is on the books until Christmas. After Christmas it's anyone's guess. But that's just for some southern Ontario auto plants; I have no idea how that relates to the rest of the auto sector in the USA.
From the census bureau web site:
Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity Utilization
Data are obtained from manufacturing and publishing establishments by means of a mailed questionnaire.
Respondents are asked to report actual production and an estimate of their full production capability.
From these reported values, a full utilization rate is calculated.
Final utilization rates are based on information collected from approximately 7,600 manufacturing and publishing establishments.
A vertically integrated, streamlined, over regulated and financially optimized supply chain is only as strong as its weakest link. This is the new economy and it doesn't have those unnecessary parallel competitive channels and other such inefficiencies from the old days of capitalism and trust busting antimonopolistic oversight.
Sorry, the auction went off last week and the Chinese were the high bidder, and stuck them all on slow boat, back home... where they are apparently hoarding consonants.
cr is onin to look at this and wonder what is wron with them now? noob oldber i have no 9 s or anythin
how we really cant have much rowth this is horrible horrible
Quick theoretical question...if the US was under martial law...would a treaty signed by the President still have to be approved by the Senate? Little debate I am having on another forum....
Exactly how do we get out of this ponzi mess? Seriously. Households were the lynchpin of the debt/money creation scam and they have taken on debts far beyond their ability to pay!
The unpayable household debts are some one else's money! Oh yeah, now I remember, it's a faith based system. All we need is more faith in the underLYING fraud.
I have 500 shares of GE. If I can find a profitable use for the E's, I'll start bidding at $8.02/G.
Bid off the "G"s and swap the resulting 'E's to the feds through TARP for more 'G's. Or use the TARP money to buy back the G's you already sold for a higher price. There really is no limit on how circular we can make this.
Noob,
This place is an enlightened shrine of sagacity compared to the dark holes I travel in hopes of shining the golden light of rational discourse and wisdom. I mentioned I like tilting with windmills...it is a way of life with me
Somebody is NOT going to get paid. Who will it be? Banks & bank bond holders? Nope, they get a free pass. Who will get the bill? Who will take the losses?
Under normal circumstances, equity holders would have eaten the first losses. We're not going to let that happen.
MM's could crush dollar shorts pretty easily...similar to Reit shorts in march....Mike-Iyr is not looking well....GO SC...the other part of parlay is looking great....
From my point of view watching auto finance applications aorund the country...Dow 10K didn't make people run to get new car and it looks like green shoots is waning ....application penetration in dealerships is trending down across country with Pre-May like numbers making a comeback....
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 9:14 am
Prediction: "Credit" money or "ledger" money will not go down in history as one of man(un)kind's brighter ideas.
Usury works great when people are productive and the usurer demands reasonable tributes. It's a great system of enslavement much better than more direct methods. But eventually the usurers become the idle rich oligarchs, and piss away great amounts of that stolen capital and get greedy for ever more of it. This ostentatious display of status and wealth eventually upsets the productive people, eventually to such a degree they realize they can stop being productive, too. Eventually there is no one left to steal from and the civilization collapses.
edit: I note terrible overuse of the word "eventually", but what the hell.
yen back above 91. looks like the exporters greased the right wheels at the BOJ.
He beat me to it. BoJ is back in business.
.
People using the Yen as a temp. replacement reserve currency need to know that the BoJ used long before Benny Boy. The Japanese won't like that albatross around their neck, and they have a track record of destroying all in their path in regards to a strengthening Yen.
CCLT - dont forget that the majority of retail bagholders probably got crushed, THEN sold. So those folks are actually pissed, because if they sold in March, they took massive losses, then missed the casino/fraud runup, only to probably get in around late summer when happy talk boomed. Now they will have gotten a small reward in a few months, and see it crushed in no time. There's nothing to cheer about.
U.S. stocks added to earlier losses on Friday after news the Reuters/University of Michigan sentiment index fell to 69.4 in October from 73.5 in the previous month, a bigger drop than economists expected
Day-owe, Day-ay-ay-owe
Daylight come and me wan' go blog
Day, me say day, me say day, me say day
Me say day, me say day-ay-ay-owe
Daylight come and me wan' go blog
Work all night on a drink a' numbers
Daylight come and me wan' go blog
Count banana till the mornin' come
Daylight come and me wan' go blog
Come, Mister tally man, tally me banana republic
Daylight come and me wan' go blog
Come, Mister tally man, tally me banana republic
Daylight come and me wan' go blog
check this flash graphic on jobs lost...
The Geography of Jobs - TIP Strategies
Holeeee Leeee Shaaaaaaat. That is some scary visual representation of the current situation. Wow. It looks like it is taken from a virus/zombie movie tracking impact points. Then, I realized it was a real event.
I heard someone from the WSJ editorial board on CSpan this morning say he was opposed to payments of COLA raises for seniors, because he's a free market guy and there's no such thing as free money - we'd all have to pay. He also believes that there should be no bonuses for poor performance, but that the financial industry should self-police. So I assume he opposed the bail-outs. No?
i got some Gs and gs found them while i was looking for something else. here i give them to y'all GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
ps there is enough think fed.
check this flash graphic on jobs lost...
The Geography of Jobs - TIP Strategies
Holeeee Leeee Shaaaaaaat. That is some scary visual representation of the current situation. Wow. It looks like it is taken from a virus/zombie movie tracking impact points. Then, I realized it was a real event.
Wow! What a representation indeed! It looks like cells in a body battling with a disease....and then the disease overpowers the cells. At the end it looks like cells about to burst
Every time I visit that site...I hear Yoda's voice echoing "That place...is strong with the Dark Side of the Force. A domain of evil it is. In you must go..." I love tinfoil, you can find 'truth' in strange places...but that site sometimes seems to me to be a portal to hell...a little circle of hell right here on earth.
Gold holding up rather well even as dollar is higher. The opposite of the other day when gold was lower with a lower dollar. I think this is a sign of strength in gold, as it continues to move up regardless of moves in other assets classes. And I saw here http://www.goldalert.com/gold_price_blog.php that traders are buying volatility in gold mining stocks, and also that credit spreads are widening out today as equities are heading down.
"A vertically integrated, streamlined, over regulated and financially optimized supply chain is only as strong as its weakest link. This is the new economy and it doesn't have those unnecessary parallel competitive channels and other such inefficiencies from the old days of capitalism and trust busting antimonopolistic oversight."
When setting a trap-line, it's best to carefully lay it out.
I never had a lot of luck as a trapper. For some reason my #2's sna" "" "ed mostly cats. There wasn't much of a market for cat pelt back in the 70s. " "o fi" "ure.
Vonbek77
Quick theoretical question...if the US was under martial law...would a treaty signed by the President still have to be approved by the Senate? Little Tinfoil Hat debate I am having on another forum....
.... I'm reaching back here to my Con Law (Gunther & Dowling) studies ...
yes, it would still have to be approved by the President unless the Senate is incapable of meeting and then
it's only on a provisional basis... a bit like an Executive Order and must be presented and voted on at a
future date
....
someone else out there please correct me if I'm wrong
Noticed the recession band finished up. While it still feels like one for many, it's welcome news. No need for everyone in the country to get dragged into the quicksand...
Interesting. What size trap line do you set and what do you use for bait? I found that if you don't use enough filthy lucre they tend to drag themselves to the next trap and the next until sated. The trick is get the first one to cry out and attract the rest of the pack and then get them to turn on each other.
Funny you should ask. I drove in El Salvador twice last week.
How was it? I used to surf there quite a bit, but it was always a bit dicy, but great waves.
Of course, it paled in comparison to Columbia.
We spent a week driving in Sicily, where every last paisano has a 4 cylinder car, and thinks they are Mario Andretti in a Ferrari. I wish I had a lire for every time I got passed on blind curves...
Did you happen to see La Passeggiata, when you were ambling around in the cities?
It's couples dressed to the nines, talking a stroll in the early evening.
report from Tampa Bay, Florida: Fight breaks out at St. Petersburg City Council meeting - St. Petersburg Times
* There is a pedestrian street area called the 'Baywalk'
* Retail space fronting it is 70% vacant
* CRE owners argue that it's because there are too many homeless and/or protesters
* CRE owners get council (5-3) to give them the land for free
* Older brother of council member will fight anyone that disagrees, on video
CRE owners argue that it's because there are too many homeless and/or protesters
CRE owners get council (5-3) to give them the land for free
Smells like business as usual to me.
Business: "It's horrible! Help us! Give us free sht!"
Politician: "Umm. Okay. Why do we care? It isn't our sht. Where's my hooker?"
In Unison: "Woo hoo! Praise the Free Market! Praise Capitalism!"
the follow up next year when thier are no stores there should be interesting...
No it won't. It will be like railroads sitting on property that they got through eminent domain. When asked to return it because the lines are closed, they will refuse because it is their asset and they will demand payment. Better yet, there may be a loan and/or lien against it. Surprisingly, eminent domain doesn't seem to take from corporations nearly as much as it does the voter.
Why do corporations--that don't vote--always seem to screw the voters who do vote?
I'm sorry miss this sidwalk is private, you have to leave.
I'm sorry miss this neighborhood is private you have to leave.
I'm sorry miss this city is private you have to leave.
Why do corporations--that don't vote--always seem to screw the voters who do vote?
Because the SCOTUS said they are 'persons', actually superpersons, even though neither the Constitution or laws granted them that status.
On the road to a better place, Congress should revoke personhood for corporations - and end their 'free speech' rights to lobby, make campaign contributions and advertise any truth/lie that they please.
Anybody remember AMF* in the late 60's and early 70's?, a proto-corp'se that tried it's hand at everything, the end results being not that pretty at all...
The corp'se today is like AMF, on a 20 year meth binge~
If you want some "canary in the coal mine" data on mortgage trends, MTG is usually a good indication, they released results today, along with some excellent data on delinquency trends.
I'm sorry miss this sidwalk is private, you have to leave.
I'm sorry miss this neighborhood is private you have to leave.
I'm sorry miss this city is private you have to leave.
People are voting to privatize the AZ State Building so who are you to get in the way of progress? Also, maybe it is a dope's hand because if the government wants it back, they have the force to just take it ala ED. Heck if I know how it all plays out...
My take, soon to be posted on Zacks.com, with the details:
In September total Industrial Production rose by 0.7% from August, its thrid straight monthly increase after a string where it was down 17 of 18 months. Total Capacity Utilization also climbed to 70.5%, up from an upwardly revised 69.9% (was 69.6%) in August. While both are still at extremely low levels, the three straight months of improvement is a VERY good sign.
Turning forst the the Industrial Production numbers, the increase in total production was 0.7%, which is a distinct slowdown from the 1.2% gain in August, and from the 0.9% gain in July. However, the August number was revised up sharply from 0.8% growth origionally reported (July was revised down from up 1.0%). Thus the gain was coming against a higher base than was thought, and things were better in August than we thought.
Still, from a longer term perspective it is not all that good, year over year total Industrial Production is down 6.1%. The most important part of industrial production is manufacturing production. It posted a 0.9% gain, following a 1.2% (revised from 0.6%) increase in August and a 1.2% rise in July (revised from 1.4%). On a year over year basis it is down 7.7%.
Mine output was not hit as hard as manufacturing output, but it too is starting to increase, rising 0.7% in September after gains of 1.1% and 1.2% in August and July respectively. It is actually up a slight 0.2% from a year ago. Utility output, which can be affected by the weather as much as by the state of the economy fell 0.7%, partially reversing the big 1.9% increase last month. In July Utility output fell 1.5%. Relative to a year ago, Utility production is down 2.1%.
Production of materials was up 0.8% following back to back increases of 1.3%, but is still down 6.1% from last year. Total output of finished goods increased 0.9% following increases of 1.4% and 0.8%, but is down 3.9% from a year ago. Finished goods output is composed of both consumer goods and business equipment. Output of consumer goods is doing better than that of business equipment. Production of consumer goods rose 1.1% in September folloing gains of 1.6% in Auguast and 0.6% in July. It has nearly recovered in year over year terms, down just 1.7%. Output of business equipment on the other hand rose just 0.1%, a sharp slowdown from gains of 1.1% in August and 1.0% in July. Since lst year output is down 8.0%
Part of the reason for the lackluster increases in business equipment output can be found int he capacity utilization numbers. Here is the general rule of thumb on Capacity Utilization, which can be seen from the graph below (from Blogger: Page not found If capacity utilization (particularly in manufacturing, utility utilization can be flakey due to weather) is above 85%, the country is in an economic boom, and is in danger of overheating, and the Fed should consider tightening up to prevent an outbreak of inflation. Around 80% is the sweet spot and signifies the economy is healthy. Historically (the data only goes back to 1967, unfortunately) 75% represents a deep recession. Capacity Utilization rates below 70% have only been seen in the current downturn. The rise back above the 70% level to 70.5% is a very welcome sign, and the historic low of 68.3% set in June was trurely horriffic. However, it emphisizes just how far we have to go to get back to something resembling economic health.
Not only did capacity utilization rise in September, but the August number was revised up to 69.9% from 69.6%. As with Industrial Production, manufacturing is the most important part of capacity utilization to watch. It rose to 67,5% in September from 66.8% in August (was 66.6%) and 66.0% (was 66.0%) in July. Its record low was hit in June at 65.1%. Just think about that for a minute, over one third of our manufacturing capacity is sitting idle, one out of three plants shut down. While the patient is showing signs of getting better, he is still one very sick puppy.
Capacity utilization in mining rose to 83.6% from 82.9% in August and 81.9% in July. Normally mining utilization runs higher than manufacturing utilization. The long run average mining utilization is 87.6% versus 79.6% for manufacturing. Thus, miners, such as Freeport McMoran (FCX) are still depressed, even if they are faring better than are manufacturing firms. Utility utilization fell to 78.1% from 78.7% in August, but remains above the 77.4% level in July. The numbers are some what distorted since total capacity in utilities has grown by 1.8% over the last year, while it is down (i.e permament closures of facitities) 0.9% in manufacturing and down 0.4% for mines. Like mines and factories, utility utilization is still well below its lowng term average level of 86.8%.
By stage of processing, we are doing better at the base of production, with utilization of crude goods (sort of reflects more mine output than factory output) at 82.6%, up from 81.4% in Auguast and 80.3% in July. Semitfinsihed utilization rose to 67.3% from 67.0% in August and 66.3% in July. The utilization of factories making finished goods rose to 69.3% from 68.6% in August and 67.5% in July.
Much of the increase in output (and utilization) comes from the Auto industry where production rose 7.4% in September after gains averageing 11.0% in August and July. The increase in output at firms like Ford (F) and its suppliers like Eaton (ETN) and TRW Automotive (TRW) was clearly tied to the cash for clunkers program. Now that the program is over, and the depleted inventories have been rebuilt, the big question is: can it continue. If it does in October and November, it will be a very good sign for the economy.
Overall, this is an encouraging report. We are headed in the right direction, but we still have a very long way to go.
I love the 'is your bank about to close' ad at the bottom here. I do biz with BOA, Chase, Citi and Capital One, so I keep saying please please please make them close.
I know BayWalk. Popular when new - shops, bistros, multi-cinema, courtyard used for outdoor jazz or ska or big bands - appealed to broad range of the public, located just off the Bayfront. Became thuggish. Attempts to remove thugs resulted in protesters (and more thugs). Attempt to privatize sidewalk to inconvenience protesters/thugs results in viral video and much touting of "free speech" in blogosphere.
It's St. Pete's answer to Underground Atlanta. Charming.
On the road to a better place, Congress should revoke personhood for corporations - and end their 'free speech' rights to lobby, make campaign contributions and advertise any truth/lie that they please.
It will come to that. Corporations only exist through the grace and blessing of The Law, and any serious changes to The Law may return us to a simpler time. Not today or maybe within my life time, but it will happen.
Hmmm. If you do a kind of eyeball "regression to mean" thingie on the industrial capacity utilization chart, it still looks like a lower recovery than any of the previous ones.
Behavior modification driven urban planning never ends well. The sidewalk needed to be be privatized because the state was powerless to prevent exercise of free speech and free association rights. Privatized those rights go away.
"U.S. industrial production increased at an annual rate of 5.2% in the third quarter ... Capacity utilization rose to 70.5% in September from a revised 69.9% in August."
Predicting this will turn back down has to be the biggest no-brainer in history. $4B in deficit spending to induce people to take on additional debt will do that.
how much debt did C4C add to the economy? $4B + new auto loans? And that is all we get for it? 0.6% tick up in utilization?
Became thuggish. Attempts to remove thugs resulted in protesters (and more thugs). Attempt to privatize sidewalk to inconvenience protesters/thugs results in viral video and much touting of "free speech" in blogosphere.
Odd how that happens. Forced redevelopment without approaching (e.g. removing) the demographics problem is doomed to failure. More Business sucking more Government tit and vice versa. There are many urban renewal projects that ended up that way because there was a reason that the people with money didn't visit those areas, and as they returned, the reasons they left also returned. Then, the natural order of things returned to thugs owning refurbished garbage and the money retreating back to its places of origin.
.
I've read some great stories of couples getting wrecked hard by the thugs, and all it does is make the money go ever further away.
yes, that three month rebound on the back of the largest deficit spend proportionately since WWII has almost got us back up to the the previous all time low of the capacity utilization time series...
More tales from the doom. My realtor here in Oregon not only lost a bunch of retirement money in the stock market last year, but her husband worked at Enron, and his 401k was in Enron stock. Their son has gone BK/foreclosed, too-- HELOCed up the yin yang, then lost his job.
It makes me want to do superstitious "ward off evil" things. Burning sage, wearing amulets, etc.
Corporate personhood is in danger for the same reason health insurers might lose their exemption to monopoly laws. You can overplay a strong hand, piss off the wrong people--and that's where we're at right now.
Iceland became one of the poorest countries in Europe. Infertile soil, volcanic eruptions, and an unforgiving climate made for harsh life in a society whose subsistence depended almost entirely on agriculture. The Black Death swept Iceland in 1402-1404 and 1494-1495, each time killing approximately half the population. (from wiki)
Vonbek
I had an answer for you based on my hazy recollection of Con Law (Gunther and Dowling)
... the president can only follow the contours of an international treaty as a proviso measure
if the Senate can't convene like an executive agreement but the moment the Senate reconvenes
the Treaty must by voted on, tabled and the exec order if it flies in the face of previous treaties
must be inoperative or else he faces impreachment...
if martial law is all it took Wilson would have done that with the League of Nations treaty, no?
Can you imagine losing half the population of your city, state, or nation? It would make rail rides in Tokyo or walking the streets of New York odd to the locals. Having room to breath and apartments to rent?
Understand perfectly the mechanism you describe. But 2nd Ave NE at Beach Drive never was a blighted area. That is, until the city and developers agreed they wanted to draw the town's youth with cinema, night spots and concerts.
These calls vary in different parts of America.In Wisconsin,for example,the words 'Poig,Poig,Poig' bring home-in both literal and figurative sense-the becon.In Illionis,I believe they call 'burp,burp,burp,' while in Iowa the phrase 'kus,kus,kus' is preferred.Proceeding to Minnesota,we find 'Peega,peega,peega' or, alternatively, 'oink,oink,oink,' wheras in Milwaukee,so largely inhabited by those of German descent,you will hear good old Teuton 'Komm Schweine,'Komm Schweine'.Oh,Yes,there are all sorts of pig calls,from Massachusetts 'Phew,phew,phew' to the 'Loo-ey,loo-ey,loo-ey' of Ohio,not counting the various local devices such as beating on tin cans with axes or rattling pebbles in a suitcase.
Barley,
Utility output can have as much to do with the weather as the economy. A very hot summer will cuase even the unemployed to turn on their air conditioners. Thus I find looking at mfg output and utilization to be more enlightening that total IP and CU, although since mfg makes up the huge bulk of it, total and MFG tend to move together.
scone (profile) wrote on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 10:44 am
It makes me want to do superstitious "ward off evil" things. Burning sage, wearing amulets, etc.
Magical consciousness is the first line of defense for dealing with the irrational after rationality gets overwhelmed. Usually it's invested in another person or institution, like the President, the CEO, the Fed, or Not Sure.
yes, that three month rebound on the back of the largest deficit spend proportionately since WWII has almost got us back up to the the previous all time low of the capacity utilization time series...
If only TPTB had the foresight to accompany that expenditure by destroying the productive capacity of all of American's competitors, like WWII. At least then the green shoots wouldn't immediately be stomped by stampeding elephants.
...they wanted to draw the town's youth with cinema, night spots and concerts.
Who in their right mind would want to bring in youth to an non-blighted part of town while not impacting the money's movement? Someone either wasn't thinking or was thinking with the head below the equator...
Iceland would be horrible for all the deflationists on this site.
Deflation? Check out the cost of a gallon of gas for the army in Afghanistan:
$400 per gallon gas to drive debate over cost of war in Afghanistan
The Pentagon pays an average of $400 to put a gallon of fuel into a combat vehicle or aircraft in Afghanistan.
The statistic is likely to play into the escalating debate in Congress over the cost of a war that entered its ninth year last week.
There's a big difference between a COLA raise and a one-time payment of $250.
A COLA raise gives SS recipients a permanently higher base. It's a raise for every year of the rest of their lives, compounded. So, if you live another 20 years, each dollar of COLA raise can translate into some $30 more money over time.
The $250 is relatively nothing. It doesn't raise the COLA base.
Dirk - I always look at utilities as forward indicator. Whether its an office building or a manufacturing plant the first thing to be turned on is the power (be it coal fired, natgas, or nuc). Power output usually indicates activity. Do agree about the weather thingy but if you look at CU and power generation over the long term the later rises befor the former..
Corporate personhood is in danger for the same reason health insurers might lose their exemption to monopoly laws. You can overplay a strong hand, piss off the wrong people--and that's where we're at right now.
Don't tease me Mel. Seriously, the revocation of many of the powers granted non-person legal entities--like corporations--is a strong enough fantasy that it makes me weak at the knees.
I'm just too vulnerable to phrases like 'reduce the protection from liability ascribed to corporations' to be taken advantage of in this way.
Late to the thread, but a remark about increased auto production.
Spent time in June talking with the GM guys at the GM exhibition at Disney's Epcot Racetrack. According to them, they've ramped up production on the models that will be dying soon as their divisions go away. After those production runs are over, no more of those cars will be made ever again and the lines will shut down permanently.
I can see the "inflationary depression" scenario, but I'm thinking the depressionary forces are so strong they'll overcome any attempt to re-inflate. Also, there are so many BKs, foreclosures, unemployed people, underemployed people, etc. it's hard to see how rising prices can be made to "stick." Which could cause even more business collapse, in the USA. At least in businesses that are all domestic, not international.
in second grade I asked my nun why God would choose a people over another people...
is that fair I asked? take fat stevie who always gets picked last in kickball ... wouldn;t
stand a chance with God...
my questioning got my head bashed against the wall a few times by a nun who looked 80...
"How can you have a shrinking economy and rising inflation? That just isn't possible, is it?"
I still have my hypothesis that debtor countries inflate, and surplus/creditor countries deflate. Plenty of historical examples of inflation in a shrinking economy.
Spent time in June talking with the GM guys at the GM exhibition at Disney's Epcot Racetrack. According to them, they've ramped up production on the models that will be dying soon as their divisions go away. After those production runs are over, no more of those cars will be made ever again and the lines will shut down permanently.
You'll excuse me if I keep this piece of away from my auto-sector-employed buddies, right? That's just depressing to think about.
EDIT: Especially because their plants are currently ramping production through Christmas...
Ted Turner. Let us all find out if he has a paypal account
Turner said he has learned to live with less, yet he still bemoans the decline in his net worth.
“To drop out of that league, that was hard to do,” Turner said. “I’ve had the experience of being on top and riding the roller coaster down again, nearly to the bottom. You know, if you economize and don’t buy new airplanes or long-range jets, or that sort of thing, you can get by on a billion or two.”
OTOH, a weaker dollar seems to be helping small businesses in America that export, including small manufacturers:
Yep, and it's those little guys that are going to keep the forex market in check by decimating the productive capacity of many formerly cheap exchange rate countries, like those in the EU and North America, by flooding those markets with cheap goods made in the USA.
“To drop out of that league, that was hard to do,” Turner said. “I’ve had the experience of being on top and riding the roller coaster down again, nearly to the bottom. You know, if you economize and don’t buy new airplanes or long-range jets, or that sort of thing, you can get by on a billion or two.”
That can't be a real quote. I mean I thought he was a bit arrogant, but really?
yes, that three month rebound on the back of the largest deficit spend proportionately since WWII has almost got us back up to the the previous all time low of the capacity utilization time series...
You would hardly even know industrial production was at 1997 levels, and the boost in capacity utilization was because of Utilities -- half of whose growth came from eliminating capacity Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
GS is trying to place their folks into government to block the Summers initiative.
I would guess that healthcare gets the first of many faustian bargains coming from this administration.
Quite simply, banking is going back to a utility, instead of a giant arb opportunity.
The only ones to make outsize returns from here on out will be true investment banks.
I'm just too vulnerable to phrases like 'reduce the protection from liability ascribed to corporations' to be taken advantage of in this way.
Noob: relax! personhood for corporations being removed would not (necessarily need to) affect limited liability, or the ability to sell shares of the entity.
However, real reform of corps should probably include strict limits on setting up subsidiary (wholly owned) sub-corporations and (quite probably) prohibition of off-balance sheet entities. That's a longer discussion which I won't go into here. The legal hiding places for fraud or misinformation that corps engage in need to be fumigated and then fire-bombed.
scone - when the USD/YEN hits 50 there will a whole lot of exports!
The BoJ will make Ben look like a self-publisher of poetry until the exporters are still positioned on a weak(er) Yen. People seem to forget that the BoJ were sending in the 20 years ago. I cannot imagine a world where the Japanese are willing to see 50 Yen/USD unless they have positioned themselves for handling their 10% UE of the future.
However, real reform of corps should probably include strict limits on setting up subsidiary (wholly owned) sub-corporations and (quite probably) prohibition of off-balance sheet entities. That's a longer discussion which I won't go into here. The legal hiding places for fraud or misinformation that corps engage in need to be fumigated and then fire-bombed.
I'm actually kinda in favour of reducing protection shareholders receive from liability. Just imagine if we tweaked the law to hold all investors in a corporation liable to double their investment. Or even 15% of their investment. Wouldn't that cause people to take a fundamentally different view of the companies they were investing in?
This has led to the commoditization of investing. The idea that the only thing I need to know about a company before plugging money into it or sucking money out of it is the stock ticker abbreviation creates all sorts of perverse incentives.
Here's an outline of how consumer banking could be restructured:
-retail banking equals checking accounts and savings accounts that invest only in short term Treasuries
-for those with more than nominal savings, different categories of investment company types strictly limited by investment type (no more Swiss cheese "Chinese walls)
Yeah, I started digging into those numbers to see what the impact of capacity destruction was...it's akin to the continuing claims falling due to the exhaustion of all benefits...
Just a reminder that the BFF Poll is open at the Toys Link.
BFF!
Big jump in auto production, will that be reversed in next months report?
,rad HG,
How was Italia?
"An increase in capacity utilization is usually an indicator that the official recession is over."
Double-dip, anyone?
How is capacity utilization calculated?
Surely we must be seeing some capacity destruction. I'm imagining closing plants etc.
Wouldn't this also push up utilization?
EDIT: Ok, a good link is here. Capacity has shrunk slightly, and did not grow much since the previous recession, compared with prior recession.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/ipg1.gif
Bounce off that low, and let's run and pin at 1,100, shall we?
30% of the largest industrial infrastructure ever assembled in the world is idle. Far more important than housing yet 30% vacancy rates would cause panic. We worry about the ripple effects of the housing overhang resulting from scaring away future investment. Meet that problem's big brother.
The recession is dead! Long live the recession!
JD - you tryin to switch the topic here to TRON? The movie or the video game?
I merely made strong less so, by weakening the link.
The factory that makes g's closed down last week...
shadowjack62 wrote:
I'm thinking the same thing. Reports I've heard is that--in the auto plants near where I live--overtime is on the books until Christmas. After Christmas it's anyone's guess. But that's just for some southern Ontario auto plants; I have no idea how that relates to the rest of the auto sector in the USA.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Dammit. That explains why I've been talkin' with a Jersey accent for a week.
"How is capacity utilization calculated?"
From the census bureau web site:
Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity Utilization
Data are obtained from manufacturing and publishing establishments by means of a mailed questionnaire.
Respondents are asked to report actual production and an estimate of their full production capability.
From these reported values, a full utilization rate is calculated.
Final utilization rates are based on information collected from approximately 7,600 manufacturing and publishing establishments.
Greetings, programs.
A vertically integrated, streamlined, over regulated and financially optimized supply chain is only as strong as its weakest link. This is the new economy and it doesn't have those unnecessary parallel competitive channels and other such inefficiencies from the old days of capitalism and trust busting antimonopolistic oversight.
I'll take "double-dip" for 200 Alex....
jd
youve got to be kidding,we have no more "g"s? oh this is not ood! how can i oo le anythin? and how can i write reen shoots?
RD,
Well said.
I second the double-dip.
A little suprised earnings are are down 3Q. I really thought they had more gimmickry in them than this.
gabyjan wrote:
It took me a second, but I see what you did there...
Well done.
noob oldberg
sorry about your name, thank you
help someone find some "g"s
Sorry, the auction went off last week and the Chinese were the high bidder, and stuck them all on slow boat, back home... where they are apparently hoarding consonants.
Industrial production may be hovering near historic lows, but at least our debt production is at record highs!
Bring on the debt based prosperity! Negative GDP and hugely positive debt growth. What could be better than that?
Rob Dawg wrote:
On the upside, a certain dehydrated insect who re9ularly participates in this forum mi9ht be able to scare up a few 9ood deals out of the carna9e.
Oh, I found an extra box of 9's in my 9ara9e. I'll use 'em until they're 9one.
cr is onin to look at this and wonder what is wron with them now? noob oldber i have no 9 s or anythin
how we really cant have much rowth this is horrible horrible
I'll take what happens when scale gets downscaled by droogs, for $1000, Alex.
It's hard for me to have faith in our "credit" money when about 30% (~18 trillion) of the credit is fraudulent.
Posted late last night, an update to the Treasury marketable debt maturity plot:
energyecon: Treasury Marketable Debt Rollover Update
_ee! No, _TE!
Wow. I sense a disturbance in the pump?
Quick theoretical question...if the US was under martial law...would a treaty signed by the President still have to be approved by the Senate? Little
debate I am having on another forum....
ylsp
huh!!!!!
I have 500 shares of GE. If I can find a profitable use for the E's, I'll start bidding at $8.02/G.
Maybe I can sell the E's to BofA. Right now they have no E in their P/E ratio.
Wow. I sense a disturbance in the pump?
Just unloaded another piece of my call position. Market ramp in my face to follow........................
yen back above 91. looks like the exporters greased the right wheels at the BOJ.
Vonbek777 wrote:
I can't believe you found another forum darker than this one...
vonbek777
i think martial law pertains to peasants not arms of overnment
I was just looking at finance.google.com
Looked like there was a ~ 30 point S&P drop over a span of about 10 minutes?
... and upon further review looks like an error...
Eric wrote:
We shall see who is the better contrary indicator...
Exactly how do we get out of this ponzi mess? Seriously. Households were the lynchpin of the debt/money creation scam and they have taken on debts far beyond their ability to pay!
The unpayable household debts are some one else's money! Oh yeah, now I remember, it's a faith based system. All we need is more faith in the underLYING fraud.
What's in your wallet?
some investor guy wrote:
Bid off the "G"s and swap the resulting 'E's to the feds through TARP for more 'G's. Or use the TARP money to buy back the G's you already sold for a higher price. There really is no limit on how circular we can make this.
Noob,
This place is an enlightened shrine of sagacity compared to the dark holes I travel in hopes of shining the golden light of rational discourse and wisdom. I mentioned I like tilting with windmills...it is a way of life with me
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 9:05 am
Vonbek777 wrote:
Quick theoretical question...if the US was under martial law...would a treaty signed by the President still have to be approved by the Senate?
I can't believe you found another forum darker than this one...
For true crazy, nothing beats godlikeproductions.com! It has brought me hours and hours of entertainment.
Lets be discrete about the letter formerly know as, we don't want the -men on our lower case.
Somebody is NOT going to get paid. Who will it be? Banks & bank bond holders? Nope, they get a free pass. Who will get the bill? Who will take the losses?
Under normal circumstances, equity holders would have eaten the first losses. We're not going to let that happen.
Who will it be?
Vonbek777 wrote:
You should work in the political bubble. No shortage of breezes, and all of us windmill tilters get together for beers after work.
EDIT: Yeah, I meant to make that possessive.
an ry saver
hehehehehehehehehe "faith based" system heheheheheheheh................................
kcoop really need that little uy rollin on the floor icon,lau hin his head off! and some "g"s
YLSP wrote:
I try finance.oogle.com and keep ettin a 404 error. Damn those Chinese and their hoardin ways.
the Fed is the one that won't be getting repaid. already taking losses on their BSC book, as well as being one of Extended Stay's largest creditors.
that's not monetization or anything...
rob daw
but what do the chinese need our " "s for they dont even use them
Rob Dawg wrote:
Since I'm at work, I'm loathe to type anything with 'oogle.com' in it lest it leads to a pr0n site.
Angry Saver wrote:
"overnment" and by that I mean taxpayers. Classic case of if you have to ask who's the patsy at the poker table...
Mustard seeds, Green Shoots, Recessions over, what next? Brought to you by the letters W&L.
Prediction: "Credit" money or "ledger" money will not go down in history as one of man(un)kind's brighter ideas.
Us!
noob goldberg wrote:
ood point.
Are you trying to say that continually pressing the bet on our busted straight-flush hand of 1 of a kind-7 times, might not work?
some of you 458 uests take a name and ive us " "s,please!
edit for thou ht
lack of " " will cause mess on bff ?
Classic case of if you have to ask who's the patsy at the poker table...
Rob Dawg,
I was being ironical. Gosh, I sure Bushisms.
MM's could crush dollar shorts pretty easily...similar to Reit shorts in march....Mike-Iyr is not looking well....GO SC...the other part of parlay is looking great....
From my point of view watching auto finance applications aorund the country...Dow 10K didn't make people run to get new car and it looks like green shoots is waning ....application penetration in dealerships is trending down across country with Pre-May like numbers making a comeback....
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Heavens to betsy, I've just wasted 10 minutes there. What a magnificent collection of
.
I'm currently enjoying the 'Jessica Simpsons MTV house in Calabasas' thread!
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 9:14 am
Prediction: "Credit" money or "ledger" money will not go down in history as one of man(un)kind's brighter ideas.
Usury works great when people are productive and the usurer demands reasonable tributes. It's a great system of enslavement much better than more direct methods. But eventually the usurers become the idle rich oligarchs, and piss away great amounts of that stolen capital and get greedy for ever more of it. This ostentatious display of status and wealth eventually upsets the productive people, eventually to such a degree they realize they can stop being productive, too. Eventually there is no one left to steal from and the civilization collapses.
edit: I note terrible overuse of the word "eventually", but what the hell.
Basel Too wrote:
He beat me to it. BoJ is back in business.
long before Benny Boy. The Japanese won't like that albatross around their neck, and they have a track record of destroying all in their path in regards to a strengthening Yen.
.
People using the Yen as a temp. replacement reserve currency need to know that the BoJ used
CCLT - dont forget that the majority of retail bagholders probably got crushed, THEN sold. So those folks are actually pissed, because if they sold in March, they took massive losses, then missed the casino/fraud runup, only to probably get in around late summer when happy talk boomed. Now they will have gotten a small reward in a few months, and see it crushed in no time. There's nothing to cheer about.
Smelling
U.S. stocks fall further after sentiment data - MarketWatch
U.S. stocks added to earlier losses on Friday after news the Reuters/University of Michigan sentiment index fell to 69.4 in October from 73.5 in the previous month, a bigger drop than economists expected
gdd9K-definitely not a cheerleader..
check this flash graphic on jobs lost...
The Geography of Jobs - TIP Strategies
i got ads now. oldline and dit somethin that has somethin to do with mac. i thought they were now aly or ally bank.?
Day-owe, Day-ay-ay-owe
Daylight come and me wan' go blog
Day, me say day, me say day, me say day
Me say day, me say day-ay-ay-owe
Daylight come and me wan' go blog
Work all night on a drink a' numbers
Daylight come and me wan' go blog
Count banana till the mornin' come
Daylight come and me wan' go blog
Come, Mister tally man, tally me banana republic
Daylight come and me wan' go blog
Come, Mister tally man, tally me banana republic
Daylight come and me wan' go blog
YouTube - Harry Belafonte Day-O ( Banana Boat )
That is one very ugly map.
this recession is not equal not all failin at same time, which means it will go on fore ever
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
I 9otta 9o pretty freestyle with my word speed in order to keep the proper cadence with 'republic' in there, but it's worth the effort.
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 9:22 am
Heavens to betsy, I've just wasted 10 minutes there. What a magnificent collection of Tinfoil Hat.
I'm currently enjoying the 'Jessica Simpsons MTV house in Calabasas' thread!
-hattery taken to such a degree that it approaches true art at times.
It is true Spectacle!
@ JD.
Italia was awesome.
Check out my homepage for more....
MM's could crush dollar shorts pretty easily..
i'm shocked that there's speculation in forex.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
Holeeee Leeee Shaaaaaaat. That is some scary visual representation of the current situation. Wow. It looks like it is taken from a virus/zombie movie tracking impact points. Then, I realized it was a real event.
no c4c, then no increase in industrial production
Benjamins makes for a most excellent tally man, methinks.
I heard someone from the WSJ editorial board on CSpan this morning say he was opposed to payments of COLA raises for seniors, because he's a free market guy and there's no such thing as free money - we'd all have to pay. He also believes that there should be no bonuses for poor performance, but that the financial industry should self-police. So I assume he opposed the bail-outs. No?
Basel Too wrote:
It is all about poker and timing. Why cash out on a small pot today when you can get someone to make a bad move and just wipe them out?
should have been '...or COLA raises...'
i got some Gs and gs found them while i was looking for something else. here i give them to y'all GGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg
ps there is enough think fed.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
check this flash graphic on jobs lost...
The Geography of Jobs - TIP Strategies
Holeeee Leeee Shaaaaaaat. That is some scary visual representation of the current situation. Wow. It looks like it is taken from a virus/zombie movie tracking impact points. Then, I realized it was a real event.
Wow! What a representation indeed! It looks like cells in a body battling with a disease....and then the disease overpowers the cells. At the end it looks like cells about to burst
Wow, every place that gained a bunch of jobs, was housing-bubble central.
We are gathered here...
tncubsfan
uh huh
Every time I visit that site...I hear Yoda's voice echoing "That place...is strong with the Dark Side of the Force. A domain of evil it is. In you must go..." I love tinfoil, you can find 'truth' in strange places...but that site sometimes seems to me to be a portal to hell...a little circle of hell right here on earth.
What " "ives with the letter " "?
It's a credit/faith based system. We don't need " "'s, we just need to " "et credit flowing a" "ain.
Interesting little opex youse got here, be a terrible shame if something happened to it...
OK, maybe I was wrong. Maybe they're gonna pin at 1,000 today.
Angry Saver wrote:
JD started it with what was most likely an unintentional typo about 9 posts down from the beginning.
Of course he'll probably try to convince you this was all intentional...in any event, an excellently clever recovery from a typo, and here we are...
Myron Scholes had some interesting analogy on markets this morning...
Video - CNBC.com
some of his comparisons are dead on....Former Nobel winner...I dont promote NBC but this guys take seems honest....I know sounds crazy but....
Gold holding up rather well even as dollar is higher. The opposite of the other day when gold was lower with a lower dollar. I think this is a sign of strength in gold, as it continues to move up regardless of moves in other assets classes. And I saw here http://www.goldalert.com/gold_price_blog.php that traders are buying volatility in gold mining stocks, and also that credit spreads are widening out today as equities are heading down.
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 9:41 am
Wow, every place that gained a bunch of jobs, was housing-bubble central.
We are gathered here...
Housing-bubble or banking-bubble, yes indeed. An entire sham social universe all built on credit. All is connected!
consumer sentiment sucked.
Briefing.com: Michigan Sentiment Disappoints
When setting a trap-line, it's best to carefully lay it out.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
It's always better to be an opportunist than a strategist anyway.
or....
sentiment, consumer sucked
curious wrote:
Apparently we consumers have ADD and expect a very rapid recovery. We need some sort of economic Ritalin.
"A vertically integrated, streamlined, over regulated and financially optimized supply chain is only as strong as its weakest link. This is the new economy and it doesn't have those unnecessary parallel competitive channels and other such inefficiencies from the old days of capitalism and trust busting antimonopolistic oversight."
Classic Dawg!
Oh boy, you had fun!
Great job on your homepage, your photos are really nice...
I'm a cat fancier, and Italy has the most docile felines of just about anywhere i've traveled.
On one trip, we were at the Forum in Rome, and I took a nap on a 2,000 year old piece of marble with 3 milk-lappers hanging out right next to me.
When setting a trap-line, it's best to carefully lay it out.
I never had a lot of luck as a trapper. For some reason my #2's sna" "" "ed mostly cats. There wasn't much of a market for cat pelt back in the 70s. " "o fi" "ure.
Althou" "h with this recession, who knows?
Vonbek77
Quick theoretical question...if the US was under martial law...would a treaty signed by the President still have to be approved by the Senate? Little Tinfoil Hat debate I am having on another forum....
.... I'm reaching back here to my Con Law (Gunther & Dowling) studies ...
yes, it would still have to be approved by the President unless the Senate is incapable of meeting and then
it's only on a provisional basis... a bit like an Executive Order and must be presented and voted on at a
future date
....
someone else out there please correct me if I'm wrong
HomeGnome wrote:
My mouth is watering and my stomach is rumbling now, damn you.
I'm a cat fancier
JD,
I had you pegged for a fat cat financier.
The Italian Driving Laws are mere suggestions...
Noticed the recession band finished up. While it still feels like one for many, it's welcome news. No need for everyone in the country to get dragged into the quicksand...
Angry Saver wrote:
Interesting. What size trap line do you set and what do you use for bait? I found that if you don't use enough filthy lucre they tend to drag themselves to the next trap and the next until sated. The trick is get the first one to cry out and attract the rest of the pack and then get them to turn on each other.
bearly wrote:
Someone repossessed their instruments.
HomeGnome wrote:
"I'm a cat fancier JD"
Me too! The other grey meat. They taste better than squirrel !!
Ever driven in El Salvador?
Funny you should ask. I drove in El Salvador twice last week.
They come in handy for guitars, if you string em' a long.
Angry Saver wrote:
What size trap line do you set and what do you use for bait?
You can't catch a fat cat financier with a TRAP. You need a very large TARP! I recommend a $700 billion TARP for starters.
central america was specifically created for good surf...and occasional sandanista...AS-how were the roads during rainy season?
Where's that Big Fed Dog when we need him?
The one who said low interest rates will promote continued flows into risky assets.
Get him out there.
We spent a week driving in Sicily, where every last paisano has a 4 cylinder car, and thinks they are Mario Andretti in a Ferrari. I wish I had a lire for every time I got passed on blind curves...
Did you happen to see La Passeggiata, when you were ambling around in the cities?
It's couples dressed to the nines, talking a stroll in the early evening.
Galleon founders on insider trading. SEC steps out of character.
Raj Rajaratnam, Founder of $3 Billion Galleon Group Hedge Fund, Arrested (GOOG, AMD, AKAM, CLWR)
report from Tampa Bay, Florida: Fight breaks out at St. Petersburg City Council meeting - St. Petersburg Times
* There is a pedestrian street area called the 'Baywalk'
* Retail space fronting it is 70% vacant
* CRE owners argue that it's because there are too many homeless and/or protesters
* CRE owners get council (5-3) to give them the land for free
* Older brother of council member will fight anyone that disagrees, on video
blackhat wrote 6:54 am
RD,
Well said.
I second the double-dip.
mt joins in
ill see your double dip and raise you a dip
the recovery will look like a gently down slopeing sawtooth
this isnt an accident nor a crisis...this was... is... the plan
I'm more of a Cheshire cat, as you can only see my words and nothing more.
http://www.ebbemunk.dk/alice/31cheshire_cat.jpg
wasnt thier a fed mbs purchase today at 10:30?
rich (profile) wrote on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 10:08 am
Where's that Big Fed Dog when we need him?
Oh, yes, that would be Cliff-fjord, the Big Fed Dog!
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Smells like business as usual to me.
Business: "It's horrible! Help us! Give us free sht!"
Politician: "Umm. Okay. Why do we care? It isn't our sht. Where's my hooker?"
In Unison: "Woo hoo! Praise the Free Market! Praise Capitalism!"
ehp-
that video shows how favoritism and connections make it tough to be a commoner..
the follow up next year when thier are no stores there should be interesting...
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
No it won't. It will be like railroads sitting on property that they got through eminent domain. When asked to return it because the lines are closed, they will refuse because it is their asset and they will demand payment. Better yet, there may be a loan and/or lien against it. Surprisingly, eminent domain doesn't seem to take from corporations nearly as much as it does the voter.
Why do corporations--that don't vote--always seem to screw the voters who do vote?
Privatize a sidewalk?
huh?
Social evolution happens!
I'm sorry miss this sidwalk is private, you have to leave.
I'm sorry miss this neighborhood is private you have to leave.
I'm sorry miss this city is private you have to leave.
yagij,
I agree, the tax payers will be looted...looks like they were at the meeting..who built the sidewalk?
yagij wrote:
Because the SCOTUS said they are 'persons', actually superpersons, even though neither the Constitution or laws granted them that status.
On the road to a better place, Congress should revoke personhood for corporations - and end their 'free speech' rights to lobby, make campaign contributions and advertise any truth/lie that they please.
This is an amusing blend of ignorance, arrogance, and a dash of doom.
Anybody remember AMF* in the late 60's and early 70's?, a proto-corp'se that tried it's hand at everything, the end results being not that pretty at all...
The corp'se today is like AMF, on a 20 year meth binge~
"payers will be looted"
And where have you been the last 100 years?
A pretty good rationale for why the markets stay up:
Why the market doesn't fall: The big money needs a winner in '09 | Money & Company | Los Angeles Times
If you want some "canary in the coal mine" data on mortgage trends, MTG is usually a good indication, they released results today, along with some excellent data on delinquency trends.
MGIC Investment Corporation Reports Third Quarter 2009 Results - Yahoo! Finance
Barley wrote:
People are voting to privatize the AZ State Building so who are you to get in the way of progress? Also, maybe it is a dope's hand because if the government wants it back, they have the force to just take it ala ED. Heck if I know how it all plays out...
volker
Welcome to the party. Enjoy yourself
My take, soon to be posted on Zacks.com, with the details:
In September total Industrial Production rose by 0.7% from August, its thrid straight monthly increase after a string where it was down 17 of 18 months. Total Capacity Utilization also climbed to 70.5%, up from an upwardly revised 69.9% (was 69.6%) in August. While both are still at extremely low levels, the three straight months of improvement is a VERY good sign.
Turning forst the the Industrial Production numbers, the increase in total production was 0.7%, which is a distinct slowdown from the 1.2% gain in August, and from the 0.9% gain in July. However, the August number was revised up sharply from 0.8% growth origionally reported (July was revised down from up 1.0%). Thus the gain was coming against a higher base than was thought, and things were better in August than we thought.
Still, from a longer term perspective it is not all that good, year over year total Industrial Production is down 6.1%. The most important part of industrial production is manufacturing production. It posted a 0.9% gain, following a 1.2% (revised from 0.6%) increase in August and a 1.2% rise in July (revised from 1.4%). On a year over year basis it is down 7.7%.
Mine output was not hit as hard as manufacturing output, but it too is starting to increase, rising 0.7% in September after gains of 1.1% and 1.2% in August and July respectively. It is actually up a slight 0.2% from a year ago. Utility output, which can be affected by the weather as much as by the state of the economy fell 0.7%, partially reversing the big 1.9% increase last month. In July Utility output fell 1.5%. Relative to a year ago, Utility production is down 2.1%.
Production of materials was up 0.8% following back to back increases of 1.3%, but is still down 6.1% from last year. Total output of finished goods increased 0.9% following increases of 1.4% and 0.8%, but is down 3.9% from a year ago. Finished goods output is composed of both consumer goods and business equipment. Output of consumer goods is doing better than that of business equipment. Production of consumer goods rose 1.1% in September folloing gains of 1.6% in Auguast and 0.6% in July. It has nearly recovered in year over year terms, down just 1.7%. Output of business equipment on the other hand rose just 0.1%, a sharp slowdown from gains of 1.1% in August and 1.0% in July. Since lst year output is down 8.0%
Part of the reason for the lackluster increases in business equipment output can be found int he capacity utilization numbers. Here is the general rule of thumb on Capacity Utilization, which can be seen from the graph below (from Blogger: Page not found If capacity utilization (particularly in manufacturing, utility utilization can be flakey due to weather) is above 85%, the country is in an economic boom, and is in danger of overheating, and the Fed should consider tightening up to prevent an outbreak of inflation. Around 80% is the sweet spot and signifies the economy is healthy. Historically (the data only goes back to 1967, unfortunately) 75% represents a deep recession. Capacity Utilization rates below 70% have only been seen in the current downturn. The rise back above the 70% level to 70.5% is a very welcome sign, and the historic low of 68.3% set in June was trurely horriffic. However, it emphisizes just how far we have to go to get back to something resembling economic health.
Not only did capacity utilization rise in September, but the August number was revised up to 69.9% from 69.6%. As with Industrial Production, manufacturing is the most important part of capacity utilization to watch. It rose to 67,5% in September from 66.8% in August (was 66.6%) and 66.0% (was 66.0%) in July. Its record low was hit in June at 65.1%. Just think about that for a minute, over one third of our manufacturing capacity is sitting idle, one out of three plants shut down. While the patient is showing signs of getting better, he is still one very sick puppy.
Capacity utilization in mining rose to 83.6% from 82.9% in August and 81.9% in July. Normally mining utilization runs higher than manufacturing utilization. The long run average mining utilization is 87.6% versus 79.6% for manufacturing. Thus, miners, such as Freeport McMoran (FCX) are still depressed, even if they are faring better than are manufacturing firms. Utility utilization fell to 78.1% from 78.7% in August, but remains above the 77.4% level in July. The numbers are some what distorted since total capacity in utilities has grown by 1.8% over the last year, while it is down (i.e permament closures of facitities) 0.9% in manufacturing and down 0.4% for mines. Like mines and factories, utility utilization is still well below its lowng term average level of 86.8%.
By stage of processing, we are doing better at the base of production, with utilization of crude goods (sort of reflects more mine output than factory output) at 82.6%, up from 81.4% in Auguast and 80.3% in July. Semitfinsihed utilization rose to 67.3% from 67.0% in August and 66.3% in July. The utilization of factories making finished goods rose to 69.3% from 68.6% in August and 67.5% in July.
Much of the increase in output (and utilization) comes from the Auto industry where production rose 7.4% in September after gains averageing 11.0% in August and July. The increase in output at firms like Ford (F) and its suppliers like Eaton (ETN) and TRW Automotive (TRW) was clearly tied to the cash for clunkers program. Now that the program is over, and the depleted inventories have been rebuilt, the big question is: can it continue. If it does in October and November, it will be a very good sign for the economy.
Overall, this is an encouraging report. We are headed in the right direction, but we still have a very long way to go.
godlikeproductions.com thread: "Re: What are other 20-30 yr. olds doing who are unemployed?"
anonymous user writes:
I feel for you guys. I really do.
I'm in my 40's so at least I got a few good years out of my degree before being laid off.
At least I have good memories of what life used to be like.
I think we all need to get out while we still can.
I'm looking at a world map. Does anyone know anything about Greenland?
yep... it's COLD there. Like north pole, Santa-and-his-reindeer cold. Not my first choice for a doomstead.
I love the 'is your bank about to close' ad at the bottom here. I do biz with BOA, Chase, Citi and Capital One, so I keep saying please please please make them close.
Barley,
I know BayWalk. Popular when new - shops, bistros, multi-cinema, courtyard used for outdoor jazz or ska or big bands - appealed to broad range of the public, located just off the Bayfront. Became thuggish. Attempts to remove thugs resulted in protesters (and more thugs). Attempt to privatize sidewalk to inconvenience protesters/thugs results in viral video and much touting of "free speech" in blogosphere.
It's St. Pete's answer to Underground Atlanta. Charming.
Woo hoo!! The recession is over, and the long meander can now begin!
Dirks thx as always
I cant reconcile auto increase and utilities decrease....any idea where the biggest shortfall was? (maybe by state?)
JimPortlandOR wrote:
It will come to that. Corporations only exist through the grace and blessing of The Law, and any serious changes to The Law may return us to a simpler time. Not today or maybe within my life time, but it will happen.
Hmmm. If you do a kind of eyeball "regression to mean" thingie on the industrial capacity utilization chart, it still looks like a lower recovery than any of the previous ones.
RE: St. Petersburg
Behavior modification driven urban planning never ends well. The sidewalk needed to be be privatized because the state was powerless to prevent exercise of free speech and free association rights. Privatized those rights go away.
"U.S. industrial production increased at an annual rate of 5.2% in the third quarter ... Capacity utilization rose to 70.5% in September from a revised 69.9% in August."
Predicting this will turn back down has to be the biggest no-brainer in history. $4B in deficit spending to induce people to take on additional debt will do that.
how much debt did C4C add to the economy? $4B + new auto loans? And that is all we get for it? 0.6% tick up in utilization?
Better print more.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
How about Iceland? Yea or Nay?
[Snark or No Snark]
yancy ward
should be "the recession is over again and the long long meander can now begin again.
fixed for you
scone I think the tag line would be "less bad"
The Crisis of Credit Visualized on Vimeo
burnside wrote:
Odd how that happens. Forced redevelopment without approaching (e.g. removing) the demographics problem is doomed to failure. More Business sucking more Government tit and vice versa. There are many urban renewal projects that ended up that way because there was a reason that the people with money didn't visit those areas, and as they returned, the reasons they left also returned. Then, the natural order of things returned to thugs owning refurbished garbage and the money retreating back to its places of origin.
.
I've read some great stories of couples getting wrecked hard by the thugs, and all it does is make the money go ever further away.
Iceland has potential as a doomstead, nice duty-freeze.
yes, that three month rebound on the back of the largest deficit spend proportionately since WWII has almost got us back up to the the previous all time low of the capacity utilization time series...
yagij (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 10:38 am
How about Iceland? Yea or Nay?
[Snark or No Snark]
We are all Iceland now!
The Golden Truth: Goldman Sachs Tightens Its Grip On Our System
More tales from the doom. My realtor here in Oregon not only lost a bunch of retirement money in the stock market last year, but her husband worked at Enron, and his 401k was in Enron stock. Their son has gone BK/foreclosed, too-- HELOCed up the yin yang, then lost his job.
It makes me want to do superstitious "ward off evil" things. Burning sage, wearing amulets, etc.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
And it has nice thermally-maintained power sources! Just gotta learn to enjoy fishing...
Well, at least credit is still available:
No, You're Reading That Right |
NBC San Diego
Check this great rate!
Corporate personhood is in danger for the same reason health insurers might lose their exemption to monopoly laws. You can overplay a strong hand, piss off the wrong people--and that's where we're at right now.
Past is prologue
Sign over the entrance:
| Welcome to the US Economy
| Safety First
| No Trip & Fall or Cliff Diving Injuries
| Reported for 105 Days
Vonbek
I had an answer for you based on my hazy recollection of Con Law (Gunther and Dowling)
... the president can only follow the contours of an international treaty as a proviso measure
if the Senate can't convene like an executive agreement but the moment the Senate reconvenes
the Treaty must by voted on, tabled and the exec order if it flies in the face of previous treaties
must be inoperative or else he faces impreachment...
if martial law is all it took Wilson would have done that with the League of Nations treaty, no?
scone, you've got americatoday's balzac staring you in the face with that one. Thomas Wolfeitdown.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Can you imagine losing half the population of your city, state, or nation? It would make rail rides in Tokyo or walking the streets of New York odd to the locals. Having room to breath and apartments to rent?
yagij,
Understand perfectly the mechanism you describe. But 2nd Ave NE at Beach Drive never was a blighted area. That is, until the city and developers agreed they wanted to draw the town's youth with cinema, night spots and concerts.
Well, it worked.
How Pigmen calls his pigs?
These calls vary in different parts of America.In Wisconsin,for example,the words 'Poig,Poig,Poig' bring home-in both literal and figurative sense-the becon.In Illionis,I believe they call 'burp,burp,burp,' while in Iowa the phrase 'kus,kus,kus' is preferred.Proceeding to Minnesota,we find 'Peega,peega,peega' or, alternatively, 'oink,oink,oink,' wheras in Milwaukee,so largely inhabited by those of German descent,you will hear good old Teuton 'Komm Schweine,'Komm Schweine'.Oh,Yes,there are all sorts of pig calls,from Massachusetts 'Phew,phew,phew' to the 'Loo-ey,loo-ey,loo-ey' of Ohio,not counting the various local devices such as beating on tin cans with axes or rattling pebbles in a suitcase.
Barley,
Utility output can have as much to do with the weather as the economy. A very hot summer will cuase even the unemployed to turn on their air conditioners. Thus I find looking at mfg output and utilization to be more enlightening that total IP and CU, although since mfg makes up the huge bulk of it, total and MFG tend to move together.
Rob Dawg wrote:
| Reported for 105 Days **
** - Report excludes purposeful trips and falls. For that number, look at the TF6 number.
scone (profile) wrote on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 10:44 am
It makes me want to do superstitious "ward off evil" things. Burning sage, wearing amulets, etc.
Magical consciousness is the first line of defense for dealing with the irrational after rationality gets overwhelmed. Usually it's invested in another person or institution, like the President, the CEO, the Fed, or Not Sure.
"How about Iceland? "
Iceland would be horrible for all the deflationists on this site. the cognitive dissonance would make their heads explode.
How can you have a shrinking economy and rising inflation? That just isn't possible, is it?
Iceland Shrinks 8% as Prices Increase 11% in Deepest Recession - Bloomberg.com
energyecon wrote:
If only TPTB had the foresight to accompany that expenditure by destroying the productive capacity of all of American's competitors, like WWII. At least then the green shoots wouldn't immediately be stomped by stampeding elephants.
29yr old GS VP picked as COO of SEC
What Is The Rationale Behind The SEC's Hiring A 29 Year Old Goldmanite As Its COO? | zero hedge
who are these guys...
YouTube - Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid - Best fight ever
burnside wrote:
Who in their right mind would want to bring in youth to an non-blighted part of town while not impacting the money's movement? Someone either wasn't thinking or was thinking with the head below the equator...
Vonbek777 wrote:
Vonbek: have you thou9ht about takin9 up a hobby?
Noob: thanks for lendin9 me the 9s until the new supply of 9s comes in
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
And thus I say unto you, don't fight the tape:
The Idiot-Maker Rally
For what it's worth dept:
Iceland became an independent republic just a few weeks before the Bretton Woods Agreement was signed...
History has strange bedfellows~
cclt
he knows something?
There's a big difference between a COLA raise and a one-time payment of $250.
A COLA raise gives SS recipients a permanently higher base. It's a raise for every year of the rest of their lives, compounded. So, if you live another 20 years, each dollar of COLA raise can translate into some $30 more money over time.
The $250 is relatively nothing. It doesn't raise the COLA base.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
It is. Yeesh. You Deflation haters are just as bad as the
haters. It is almost like you become that which you most despise. 
Dirk - I always look at utilities as forward indicator. Whether its an office building or a manufacturing plant the first thing to be turned on is the power (be it coal fired, natgas, or nuc). Power output usually indicates activity. Do agree about the weather thingy but if you look at CU and power generation over the long term the later rises befor the former..
Mel wrote:
Don't tease me Mel. Seriously, the revocation of many of the powers granted non-person legal entities--like corporations--is a strong enough fantasy that it makes me weak at the knees.
I'm just too vulnerable to phrases like 'reduce the protection from liability ascribed to corporations' to be taken advantage of in this way.
creditcriminalslovetarp (profile) wrote on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 10:52 am
29yr old GS VP picked as COO of SEC
What Is The Rationale Behind The SEC's Hiring A 29 Year Old Goldmanite As Its COO? | zero hedge
who are these guys...
The Chosen Ones!
funny the dark pool hearings are next week...hmmmm..coincidence...
Late to the thread, but a remark about increased auto production.
Spent time in June talking with the GM guys at the GM exhibition at Disney's Epcot Racetrack. According to them, they've ramped up production on the models that will be dying soon as their divisions go away. After those production runs are over, no more of those cars will be made ever again and the lines will shut down permanently.
subprime on Vimeo
I can see the "inflationary depression" scenario, but I'm thinking the depressionary forces are so strong they'll overcome any attempt to re-inflate. Also, there are so many BKs, foreclosures, unemployed people, underemployed people, etc. it's hard to see how rising prices can be made to "stick." Which could cause even more business collapse, in the USA. At least in businesses that are all domestic, not international.
in second grade I asked my nun why God would choose a people over another people...
is that fair I asked? take fat stevie who always gets picked last in kickball ... wouldn;t
stand a chance with God...
my questioning got my head bashed against the wall a few times by a nun who looked 80...
"How can you have a shrinking economy and rising inflation? That just isn't possible, is it?"
I still have my hypothesis that debtor countries inflate, and surplus/creditor countries deflate. Plenty of historical examples of inflation in a shrinking economy.
homedad43 wrote:
You'll excuse me if I keep this piece of
away from my auto-sector-employed buddies, right? That's just depressing to think about.
EDIT: Especially because their plants are currently ramping production through Christmas...
,rad homedad43,
That totally makes sense, but why do you hate America?
Nate
"countries inflate, and surplus/creditor countries deflate"
+1
OTOH, a weaker dollar seems to be helping small businesses in America that export, including small manufacturers:
Cheaper Dollar Helps Smaller Us Exporters - Business News - Portfolio.com
"12:00p BREAKING Summers calls on banks to accept broad oversight"
I sorry but did he just call for NATIONALIZATION OF OUR BANKS? Sounds like it.
Summers calls on banks to accept broad oversight - MarketWatch
scone - when the USD/YEN hits 50 there will a whole lot of exports!
Ted Turner. Let us all find out if he has a paypal account
Turner said he has learned to live with less, yet he still bemoans the decline in his net worth.
“To drop out of that league, that was hard to do,” Turner said. “I’ve had the experience of being on top and riding the roller coaster down again, nearly to the bottom. You know, if you economize and don’t buy new airplanes or long-range jets, or that sort of thing, you can get by on a billion or two.”
scone wrote:
Yep, and it's those little guys that are going to keep the forex market in check by decimating the productive capacity of many formerly cheap exchange rate countries, like those in the EU and North America, by flooding those markets with cheap goods made in the USA.
What goes around comes around.
nova wrote:
That can't be a real quote. I mean I thought he was a bit arrogant, but really?
shill - the USG already owns something like 34% of C. that should translate to 2 Board seats, not oversight
How do you get production increases w/ capex spending & inventories falling for 13 months?
Nova - TT has done some very positive community things w/ his money...
How do you get production increases w/ capex spending & inventories falling for 13 months?
Shadow Inventory
You can do See Me-Dig Me on the cheap for a billion or 2, but nothing exceeds like excess.
Ted Turner was being snarkish.
A fun toy! Interactive map and graph showing clickable doom stats state by state! Enjoy!
A Regression Recession - Interactive Features - Portfolio.com
Basel Too wrote:
That sounds better. I wouldn't want to think that I'd have to lose my sense of humour when I finally reached the billionaire level.
energyecon wrote:
You would hardly even know industrial production was at 1997 levels, and the boost in capacity utilization was because of Utilities -- half of whose growth came from eliminating capacity Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
scone - way cool!
Velvet Fist of Government
GS is trying to place their folks into government to block the Summers initiative.
I would guess that healthcare gets the first of many faustian bargains coming from this administration.
Quite simply, banking is going back to a utility, instead of a giant arb opportunity.
The only ones to make outsize returns from here on out will be true investment banks.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Well look at that news blurb..
The Goldman Sachs VP was just named the managing executive for the SEC
Fraud in daylight
gfi,
That's exactly what I would expect once other countries start dealing around the USD instead of through it
shill (profile) wrote on Fri, 10/16/2009 - 11:18 am
The Goldman Sachs VP was just named the managing executive for the SEC
Fraud in daylight
No need for concealment anymore. The game is already theirs.
noob goldberg wrote:
Noob: relax! personhood for corporations being removed would not (necessarily need to) affect limited liability, or the ability to sell shares of the entity.
However, real reform of corps should probably include strict limits on setting up subsidiary (wholly owned) sub-corporations and (quite probably) prohibition of off-balance sheet entities. That's a longer discussion which I won't go into here. The legal hiding places for fraud or misinformation that corps engage in need to be fumigated and then fire-bombed.
Barley wrote:
The BoJ will make Ben look like a self-publisher of poetry until the exporters are still positioned on a weak(er) Yen. People seem to forget that the BoJ were sending in the
20 years ago. I cannot imagine a world where the Japanese are willing to see 50 Yen/USD unless they have positioned themselves for handling their 10% UE of the future.
JimPortlandOR wrote:
I'm actually kinda in favour of reducing protection shareholders receive from liability. Just imagine if we tweaked the law to hold all investors in a corporation liable to double their investment. Or even 15% of their investment. Wouldn't that cause people to take a fundamentally different view of the companies they were investing in?
This has led to the commoditization of investing. The idea that the only thing I need to know about a company before plugging money into it or sucking money out of it is the stock ticker abbreviation creates all sorts of perverse incentives.
/end rant
Here's an outline of how consumer banking could be restructured:
-retail banking equals checking accounts and savings accounts that invest only in short term Treasuries
-for those with more than nominal savings, different categories of investment company types strictly limited by investment type (no more Swiss cheese "Chinese walls)
Yeah, I started digging into those numbers to see what the impact of capacity destruction was...it's akin to the continuing claims falling due to the exhaustion of all benefits...
Every time I hear the name Raj Rajaratnam on cnbc today I can't stop thinking of "naga, naga, not gonna work here anymore."