I know ... too many posts. I'll take a break. But this one is important - the success or failure of HAMP will really impact the housing market in the short term. Longer term, I think this is just "extend and pretend" without principal reductions.
the HAMP program right now has got a rather significant impact on our delinquency statistics and really makes it difficult for anyone from the outside to actually have a good view as to the inherent credit profile in our delinquency buckets.
"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Using taxpayer funds to keep out-of-work homeowners in their homes until they find another job is an option being looked at by some officials in the Obama administration, according to people familiar with government financial rescue programs.
At issue is an administration program that is employing $50 billion in taxpayer funds from the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program to help lenders modify mortgages for troubled homeowners"
The DOW shall not, the DOW shall not go down
The DOW shall not, the DOW shall not go down
Deep in your heart, you must know that
The DOW shall not go down.
Does anyone see which page their breakdown of Tier 1, 2, and 3 is? They reference Tier 1 at 12.7%, but I can't seem to find the other two ratios.
Okay, I don't see other ratios referred to, but slide 22 has a reference to Key Capital Metrics.
Maybe someone can explain to me how Q2-09 and Q3-09 Tier 1 capital and total capital are identical even with the changes we've seen in the markets over the past four months.
Citi sure used allot of words to say "We don't know and if we did we aren't telling.
Actually it was more like: "You don't know and we're not telling you." They could have done analyses of failure rates during the trial period, etc., to make (admittedly rough) estimates. They didn't - and they didn't give us numbers to estimate them either. I find this extremely telling.
I don't think they know, because they could care less if the mods work.
The Fed forced them to do the mods, they don't like being told what to do.
And when the mods reforclose they can say, Hoocoodanode?
Idiots! Foreclosures started climbing in 2007 then Lehman crashed and the swindle began to unravel. Fix the foreclosures was chanted through the streets. Enter TARP 2008 which shifty Paulson chose to direct to the Bernanke Bail Buddy fund. Then HAMP, HARP, HAFA no HOPE and here we are talking about maaaaybe some mod results won't be known till 2010. Start the free homes for all program now and lets get this crash over. With my free car, house, money and healthcare I'd like a boat ramp for my new Obama boat.
"HAMP also reduces net credit losses as loans in the trial period do not get charged off at 180 days past-due as long as they have made at least one payment."
I wonder if anybody at Campbell's has thought seriously about selling "Bailout Soup," using only the letters from the various bailout-related government acronyms. I think it would sell well. Imagine the kids trying to catch HAMP, TALF, TARP etc in their spoon. What a great economic lesson for the next generation.
I'm talking about their experience with mods and HAMP in particular.
This is where Tanta would be a good help, because I don't understand the technicalities preventing an understanding of how mods are performing. Why is it so hard to get this data?
Seriously Folks, the Housing Bubble Is Back
Posted Oct 15, 2009 09:56am EDT by Joe Weisenthal in Investing, Recession, Housing
Related: dia, spy, hd, len, kbh
From The Business Insider, Oct. 15, 2009:
We mentioned this a week ago, though this story has been kind of flying under the radar: The housing bubble is back.
No, home prices aren't (yet) at overinflated levels again, but the housing market is seeing a return of enthusiasm, mania, and speculation, the likes of which we haven't seen in a long time.
Now CNBC's Diana Olick (via Calculated Risk) is talking about it. Here's an email a realtor sent to a friend of hers.
The foreclosure capital of America, Vegas home prices are down more than 50 percent from their peak in 2006. The median price of a home there is $138,000, but, interestingly, the inventory is down to a less than 3-month supply. Compare that to the national inventory, now at an 8.5 month supply. Despite the low supply, prices are not recovering quickly because the sales are all by banks, looking to unload properties quickly.
But back to Katie. Her Realtor, who is also an old friend, emailed Katie the following warnings before her arrival on the Vegas strip:
- This market is crazy and many things are just not going to make any sense.
- I can guarantee you 99.99% of the listings emailed to you will no longer be available by the time you get here.
- Properties are selling in the blink of an eye.
- Properties are getting multiple offers within a few days of being on the market, the most offers I’ve heard a house had recently was 44 offers (I know, crazy).
- This market is crazy and many things are just not going to make any sense.
- 40% of all transactions are cash purchases, which makes it harder for the buyers who are financing to get their offers accepted.
- We have 1/2 the inventory we had a year ago and 4 times as many buyers as we did a year ago.
- Chances are we will have to submit several offers to have the chance of getting 1 accepted.
- This market is crazy and many things are just not going to make any sense.
- You will probably leave not knowing if you have a house or not because banks take 2 to 3 weeks to respond, because this market is crazy… you know the rest.
Is this just realtor puffery? Possible. But this fits with other anecdotal evidence people are seeing. Foreclosureville markets are going crazy again.
More coverage from The Business Insider:
* Real estate speculation is getting scary popular again
* CondoVultures: Fate of S. Florida housing market all depends on federal govt
"HAMP also reduces net credit losses as loans in the trial period do not get charged off at 180 days past-due as long as they have made at least one payment."
So, does this mean that a homeowners receiving the mod only have to make one payment in three months in order to stave off bank action? I don't understand the import of this statement.
I'm not in banking, but have a broad stats background. I find it completely feasible that with very little data, broad lessons aren't being learned. New programs have all sorts of problems like just getting the programming done; some regions getting access and training before others; etc.
I don't think they know, because they could care less if the mods work.
The Fed forced them to do the mods, they don't like being told what to do.
And when the mods reforclose they can say, Hoocoodanode?
While they're mod'img these loans, they don't have to recognize their losses, and they can also boost their bonuses for doing such a bang up job-
Booking losses would mean the banks are visibly insolvent, which means more Fed reserve pump, which is awkward. No data, no visible losses, no pump, and happy markets all around.
“European governments are having to raise money in dollars because of difficulties in attracting investors in their domestic markets due to the intense competition for funds. Croatia joined the growing trend of issuing in dollars on Wednesday when it announced plans to issue its first bond in the US currency, with Barclays Capital, Citigroup and JPMorgan arranging the deal. It is expected to raise $500m. Lithuania issued its first dollar bond last week, raising $1.5bn in five-year paper. The Poles have raised money in dollars, Swiss-francs and euros this year.
Germany, Italy, Austria, Belgium, Portugal and Spain have also issued debt in dollars in recent months, according to Dealogic.”
That looks like pretty much the EU to me. Should support the $ later on. Not good for the eurozone when Germany (!) borrows in dollars.
Quite a bit of data on the positive side of things today.
I would say we're on course to see positive employment growth, and a bottom in inventory in about 3 months time.
Problem is, a majority of this momentum is from government spending which has peaked in pace and will decline in 2.5 months. A lot of the most efficient spending programs cut out by year end, so it will decidedly be bad news.
Then you add in the seasonal factors that will drive layoffs. We'll be back into the zone of negative momentum. That's even if the USD holds this level until year end, and banks don't expedite foreclosures as they have warned and shown early indications of (living rent free is a big boost to the economy)
The thing that locks in that scenario for me is the complacency. Not just in Congress. Everyone has had it beat into their heads that H2 = recovery. Someone posted a link to a Rasmussen reports video bit earlier today, as the % of homeowners that are negative equity declined, so has support for the $75bn HAMP. Probably the same results for FTHB. The FHA will need a big capital infusion once the debt ceiling gets increased. Along with the FDIC, and Fannie Mae. Having that backlog of $bn spending items scroll across the evening news will make a lot of people sick, and even more likely to oppose further subsidies and extensions of current support. There won't be any further stimulus until we're weeks back into free fall.
New programs have all sorts of problems like just getting the programming done; some regions getting access and training before others; etc.
scone wrote:
Booking losses would mean the banks are visibly insolvent, which means more Fed reserve pump, which is awkward. No data, no visible losses, no pump, and happy markets all around.
So either the program is so new that they can't access data and are flying completely blind, or they have the data but don't want to release it because it would render them insolvent.
Let's say that half of the $7.57 billion of 180 day late loans are HAMP, and thus aren't being written down. $3.8 billion. Now, let's say that they get stellar results compared to others and 50% of the HAMP loans actually get modified and stay performing. That's $1.9 billion that go into foreclosure, probably with losses exceeding half of the loan values.
So, has HAMP allowed Citi to delay recognition of $1 billion+ in losses? Anybody with an alternate calculation?
"HAMP also reduces net credit losses as loans in the trial period do not get charged off at 180 days past-due as long as they have made at least one payment."
The thing is that reserves have already been booked. If someone is in 90 day delinquent bucket, the bank is already required to put aside additional reserves. A lot of smaller banks were already complaining that the OTC made them increase reserves on their good loans.
As far as the data is concerned, I'm sure they access, but I imagine it is akin to knowing the outcome of the first 15 plays in a football game, near worthless.
they have the data but don't want to release it because it would render them insolvent. - ng
As a former database and systems analyst I guarantee they have the data, even if it's just in paper files. But the banks themselves, at the level of managers in the rank and file, do not want to show, in detail, how much they have fucked up. Managers with lots of losses are sweating bullets right now. It's not as if there are a lot of low-level banker jobs out there. They have their own mortgage, retirement, and college tuition payments to worry about. The whole industry is highly motivated to deep-six a lot of data. A lot. We may never get to the bottom of it all.
EHP - What surprises me the most is how little of the "stimulus" money has actually gone to anything that is in any way indicative of forward motion... very little growith, job creation, or payback, much less simple return on investment. Money down a hole.
Interestingly this 'money down a hole' does slosh around, so it will have a temporary effect. I'm in a company that does lots of business with public utilities and we are seeing a definite upswing and inquiries due to energy projects on the horizon as stimulus money gets disbursed. We know it's temporary, though, and are preparing accordingly.
I'm not in banking, but have a broad stats background. I find it completely feasible that with very little data, broad lessons aren't being learned. New programs have all sorts of problems like just getting the programming done; some regions getting access and training before others; etc.
The problem is one of money. $75bn in modification incentives. Main drivers of foreclosure are negative equity, followed closely by unemployment. There were about 800k mortgages in the trial mod state, assume 250k per mortgage, that is $200bn of mortgages.
There's 50mn mortgages out there, at least 20mn still under water and not foreclosed.
The problem is not hard to solve, it's the results are tough to accept.
As far as the data is concerned, I'm sure they access, but I imagine it is akin to knowing the outcome of the first 15 plays in a football game, near worthless.
I can't disagree with that statement, but they've already modified loans and probably have some data. If that data shows, for example, that 30% made only one payment before sliding back into delinquency, we can guess how the football game is going to end.
It seems so...that piece I linked mentioned a "basis trade" where the issuer turns around and sells the dollar proceeds to get euros that they can use. Seems to me that this says euro domestic capital is all locked up in stabilizing the system so the govts borrow from US IB's who have the funds due to Bernanke and Co.
EHP - What surprises me the most is how little of the "stimulus" money has actually gone to anything that is in any way indicative of forward motion... very little growith, job creation, or payback, much less simple return on investment. Money down a hole.
I think there are quite a few of us who could think of more productive ways for the government to spend (or not spend) a trillion dollars in dealing with this crisis. Very large social infrastructure projects, lofty research goals, etc etc have all been batted around here at various times. Most anything is better than throwing good money after bad in trying to support asset prices.
It's utterly amazing that they call this a recovery, and yet we've got record unemployment, record foreclosures, record bailouts, record stimulii, record QE, and all still rising. Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall, HD had a great fall, and all the king's horses and all the king's men still have not been able to put
HD together again
HAMP was announced in March 2009.
~800k loans are in the trial phase (if the loan can stay current for 3 months at new payment levels, declared a success and FHA buys up the modified mortgage)
1700 had succeeded in the first 7 months.
44.5% of those were done by Ocwen, leaving the average success rate at 0.7%
10% of mortgages being modified is probably an optimistic number
Remember, the FHA needs more cash as it has a 2% capital requirement
It's utterly amazing that they call this a recovery, and yet we've got record unemployment, record foreclosures, record bailouts, record stimulii, record QE, and all still rising.
It's utterly amazing that they call this a recovery, and yet we've got record unemployment, record foreclosures, record bailouts, record stimulii, record QE, and all still rising.
Ahh, but those are all trailing indicators. The Leading Economic Indicators are all green shootie.
Although IIRC the commentariat and maybe even CR had some fun with the LEI a few weeks ago...
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/15/2009 - 2:26 pm
I think there are quite a few of us who could think of more productive ways for the government to spend (or not spend) a trillion dollars in dealing with this crisis. Very large social infrastructure projects, lofty research goals, etc etc have all been batted around here at various times. Most anything is better than throwing good money after bad in trying to support asset prices.
Most of it isn't even that noble. It's band-aids to allow states to avoid layoffs and cutbacks, and other sorts of aid that has little to nothing to do with economic stimulus. A lot of the money earmarked for energy, infrastructure etc. has yet to hit with much force. Saving unnecessary public jobs and holding up inflated public salaries for jobs that are no longer needed is even less useful than one-shot hits for consumption items since it's a recurring cost (and a recurring deficit).
ResistanceIsFeudal,
That's the thing about financial crisis spending. The worse it is, the more effective it can be. Ultimately it's free money to someone, and that takes some pressure off at that point (eg could you imagine if States had to cut their workforce by 40%, double taxes, liquidate property and accounts?)
The most important thing is that the spending doesn't cut into the existing market share of someone else that contributes to GDP.
noob goldberg,
You know how many billions in fees have been made issuing government guaranteed credit, or buying securities on behalf of the government this year?
EvilHenryPaulson (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/15/2009 - 2:32 pm
ResistanceIsFeudal,
That's the thing about financial crisis spending. The worse it is, the more effective it can be. Ultimately it's free money to someone, and that takes some pressure off at that point (eg could you imagine if States had to cut their workforce by 40%, double taxes, liquidate property and accounts?)
The most important thing is that the spending doesn't cut into the existing market share of someone else that contributes to GDP.
I've read my Keynes, and can't disagree even though I hate the idea in principle. Hopefully those states bought enough time to lessen the impact but there MUST BE an impact. Otherwise they go on life-support as a recurring cost to all taxpayers. We hope they are preparing for the reality instead of using their resources and pull to coax another fix out of Uncle Sugar. Unfortunately that's exactly what happens...
We can 'reinflate' our way out of the RE bubble according to highly regarded economists (advising the policy makers) who know the currency will devalue as a result of the crushing debt with interest becoming unpayable unless printing occurs. Pay no attention to any relevant & extensive published research on govt overspending, currency crisis, regulatory failure, and structural imbalances.
I don't think Keynes applies to this situation at all. The only time Keynes would apply is if the government is arbitraging down a false expectation in the future of the economy, and it should apply as much to downturns as it does upturns. You could extend that to include choosing to absorb losses over a longer timeframe, but by that point you're choosing favourites within the economy and probably going to screw things up for a later date instead of resolving the problem up front
You know how many billions in fees have been made issuing government guaranteed credit, or buying securities on behalf of the government this year?
No, but I had imagined it was a huge amount. I'm not arguing that government's foray into backstopping credit has hurt the banks; I'm more concerned that it's hurt the economy, especially in the long term.
You mean things like government spending and/or raising taxes?
Rob Dawg,
A shift towards more efficiency in the economy is best left to a time when there isn't slack in the economy (I know where you were going with that, but I can consistently respond to it 6 ways from Sunday)
No, but I had imagined it was a huge amount. I'm not arguing that government's foray into backstopping credit has hurt the banks; I'm more concerned that it's hurt the economy, especially in the long term.
It's like Weekened at Bernie's. He's already dead, what's the worst that could happen?
EvilHenryPaulson (profile) wrote on Thu, 10/15/2009 - 2:42 pm
I don't think Keynes applies to this situation at all. The only time Keynes would apply is if the government is arbitraging down a false expectation in the future of the economy, and it should apply as much to downturns as it does upturns. You could extend that to include choosing to absorb losses over a longer timeframe, but by that point you're choosing favourites within the economy and probably going to screw things up for a later date instead of resolving the problem up front
I mentioned Keynes mostly just to indicate I wasn't an "Austrian fundamentalist" and was acquainted with the concept and theoretical justifications for deficit spending. My opinion would be that using the money (borrowed from the future, effectively) to mitigate and smooth anticipated impacts was a reasonable use of stimulus, even if it meant picking favorites/selection bias.
Noob, how can you call it fixed when it's still broken? It's probably hard to see the cracks when you're watchin from canada, but no worry, it's comin your way.
Rob Dawg wrote:
"You mean things like government spending and/or raising taxes?"
A shift towards more efficiency in the economy is best left to a time when there isn't slack in the economy (I know where you were going with that, but I can consistently respond to it 6 ways from Sunday)
Govt actions have been forcing out private activity in near every aspect of the economy. You know where I'm going with this too. Doing nothing and letting the GDP take the hit from reduced activity is actually preferable to the anti-GDP effects of govt substitution.
"A shift towards more efficiency in the economy is best left to a time when there isn't slack in the economy "
Hmm. I would think that when the economy is in "slack" mode would be the ideal time to reorganize. Far easer to kill off the marginal players when the do not have the wherewithal to fight back. Shame O' did not take advantage to finish off the TBTF while they had their hand out.,
Noob, how can you call it fixed when it's still broken? It's probably hard to see the cracks when you're watchin from canada, but no worry, it's comin your way.
Did I say it was fixed? That would have been a mistype.
EHP is arguing--rightly--that these actions are a hail mary in the ER; damned the consequences, let's just get the patient stabilized.
My argument is that we've chopped off the arms, legs, eyes and ears of the patient in order to stabilize them. Even if they pull through recovery, it's unwise to expect the same performance if they ever manage to get back to work.
"HAMP also reduces net credit losses as loans in the trial period do not get charged off at 180 days past-due as long as they have made at least one payment."
Can anyone explain the accounting treatment of HAMPed loans? Does this statement imply that no impairment charge at all has been taken on loans in the trial period as long as at least one payment has been made, or in other words that these loans appear on the books as if they were current? Or are they saying that they don't take the full charge-off they would ordinarily take on a 180-day past due loan, but they've taken some sort of charge?
Rob Dawg,
There's no single optimal equilibrium for government, or the structure of the economy. Anything I would have to say would be dependent on time and place (including recent history and nearest neighbours).
.....this reminds me of feeding my chickens.......Me carrying the stainless bucket is the first sign they see - the smarter hens start walking my way. Then they hear the familiar, "Heeeere....Chick, chick, chick, chick, chick" - and they ALL start running to me. I'll walk out to where I want them fed, them all happily clucking, following me like a pied piper. I'll throw a handful of grain in one direction, they'll cluck and scurry to the food, I'll throw some more feed 10-15 feet from the first, and half of them will follow the new food, clucking loudly. I repeat this over and over until my day's bucket is empty and they're all busily clucking over their new food............A lot of times I feel like I'm President Obama............How many of you guys feel like the chicken?
Rob Dawg,
They're both dead, and have too many people speaking for them.
They each have strong and weak points in their work. But most importantly, they are dead. This is our mess.
Anyone else think dealing with individual state revenue shortfalls is going to be the real test of Obama's Presidency?
I don't know about the state level, but local governments and school districts in CA have planned budget cuts for the next two fiscal years (2010-11, and 2011-12). This after painful cuts for 2009-10. Many are spending reserves right now to stay afloat.
Yalt - my understanding is that they are reflected as deliquent, but do not have to be charged-off in accordance with the lender's normal policies, but this is third hand info.
What is the range of everyone's general economic expectations?
Mine goes from Best: up to 2 year reprieve in what's referred to as a W shaped recovery, aka the early 1980s Middle: Government spending fades before there is a self-sustaining bubble Worst: There is no deceleration in USD declines and upward pressure on US treasury yields, all kinds of rates spike, fallout in overseas banks, which become countries failing
I don't know about the state level, but local governments and school districts in CA have planned budget cuts for the next two fiscal years (2010-11, and 2011-12). This after painful cuts for 2009-10. Many are spending reserves right now to stay afloat.
Indeed there are severe municipal shortfalls to be dealt with, even long after the economy rebounds as much of their earnings are from property taxes, which are based on real estate values that will be depressed for years.
However, I was more thinking along the lines of Obama having the willpower and self-restraint to not give into state demands. Once that door is opened, it'll be awful hard to close again with 50 hands sticking through it.
If you had opened a 5% WaMu CD last year and that CD is new maturing as a Chase CD, it's important not to let it automatically renew. One reader just emailed me what happened to his friend:
A friend of mine had a Chase/WAMU CD flip over. It used to be at WAMU. To cancel this Chase $100k CD, Chase wants $3k + $25. At the new interest rate of 0.20 for 12 months, that is a 15 YEAR interest penalty for cancelling the CD. I know of no other bank in the world that charges this.</i>
What is the range of everyone's general economic expectations?
Actually, mine is very similar to yours, with my current expectation somewhere between the best and middle-case scenario. But I'm watching the USD pretty close these days, waiting for something to spark a short squeeze; otherwise, it's option 3 all the way.
Gibberish and make believe lalaland is not sound economic theory...good economic theory seeking stability is haunted by real world corrupted monopolization processes...
What is the range of everyone's general economic expectations?
Best case: Middling level deflation leading to slow 20 year declining Great Britain/Japan scenario.
Worst case: Same as above with middling inflation overlay. "Extend and pretend" goes out 40-60 years. Decline and Fall of the West. Mordor wins it all.
All cases: Fed spending gets no traction, like pushing on a string.
Black Star Ranch (profile) wrote on Thu, 10/15/2009 - 3:00 pm
I'll throw a handful of grain in one direction, they'll cluck and scurry to the food, I'll throw some more feed 10-15 feet from the first, and half of them will follow the new food, clucking loudly. I repeat this over and over until my day's bucket is empty and they're all busily clucking over their new food............
That's exactly what they're trying to turn us into. It's working too. Now all you need to do is start taking bets on what the chickens will do when you throw food. Obviously refusing the free lunch would be a stupid choice.
just did an apple web store price check. Usually they have been pretty good at re-aligning their prices because they're vertically integrated.
The CAD prices relative to USD prices are anywhere from 11% to 22% higher, with 16% higher the most common. The exchange rate is only 3% higher for now.
I was just reflecting, again, on ow much the current economic mess revolves around housing. I can think of three easy reasons for credit decline: (1) lack of credit worthiness (loss of jobs, malinvestment), (2) banks know their assets are listed at nowhere near real value. Since they can park funds at the Fed and make money, they have decided to recapitalize the slow way, (3) those with jobs are afraid to spend.
A little more musing on that topic led me to an obvious issue: home mortgages are greatly in excess of unemployment benefits. If a lost job all but guarantees a lost home, everyone is saving as much as possible so that they can avoid being forced into liquidation in the length of time it would take to find another job.
So we get a deflationary spiral that can really only be broken with a combination of decent jobs and lower housing prices. An hopefully a whole new generation of people who will know not to over-extend themselves.
Best case scenario:
Protectionsm kills globalization and central banking fractional reserve processes while localism takes off killing the predatory and exploitative 'global' corporations and 'financialization scams'...
Protectionism has quietly been ramping up.
EU / US / China
100% tariffs
worrisome is that the only surplus countries that have gone to deficit are Canada, Japan
EU, China, Switzerland, Korea, have all been protecting their trade balance successfully.
It is improbable that a few countries can absorb the whole impact alone.
...signs that the bank hasn't learned any lessons from the downturn.
I just choked on my coffee!
What a load of crap. They've learned plenty: like the lesson on how they now can make even larger bets because they're leveraging the creditworthiness of the entire United States of America.
Best case scenario:
Protectionsm kills globalization
Oddly, protectionism may actually save it; China's propping up of the USD for the last 10 years has distorted things badly, and is about to kill the largest "free" consumer market in the world. Bringing the world back to reality will ultimately be a good thing-
However, I was more thinking along the lines of Obama having the willpower and self-restraint to not give into state demands. Once that door is opened, it'll be awful hard to close again with 50 hands sticking through it.
I am wondering how that dynamic is going to play out: WallStreet v. The States. Right now, I'd argue that the states have been bent over a barrel because of their dependency on Federal aid for roads, schools, health care and other things. However if Congress busts the banks for WallStreet, it sets up a fight of Federal v. States in regards to the flow of money v. the obeisance of The Law.
.
Just like the Civil War wasn't really about slavery, this new war will have causes and "causes".
merchants of fear,
It's in the way you write. I'm sorry if it hurt you for me to say so, but you did bring it up, to be fair, with your claim that Marx created the USSR and was so evil you never needed to know more.
The reason why I brought up Machiavelli is that he had more influence on Stalin, Hitler, Mussolini, and others than Marx ever had on a country. It was a test of how simple your world view was.
What a load of crap. They've learned plenty: like the lesson on how they now can make even larger bets because they're leveraging the creditworthiness of the entire United States of America.
Exactly! They've learned the WRONG lessons. BTW, that was written by Ms. Prins, not me-
WASHINGTON -- It's been over a year since Congress passed the $700 billion bank bailout and the Federal Reserve started creating new money--a trillion new dollars and counting--out of thin air to prop up the U.S. economy. In addition, the Fed dropped interest rates to zero. In normal times, this flood of free money would have been wildly inflationary. But in that same year, prices have fallen 1.3%.
the more things have changed, the more they will stay the same
Am I wrong, or does the editor's lead-in paragraph ("...But behind the giddy numbers, Nomi Prins argues, are signs that the bank hasn't learned any lessons from the downturn.") completely misrepresent her article? She outlines all the "treats" Goldman received to offset their suffering from last year's meltdown, then says:
But, there’s something ominous about the giddy trading figures, even besides the risk they represent. In terms of complex transactions, the more clients are convinced to add bells and whistles to their transactions, the more revenue is maximized for the bank. People get paid big bonuses for this ‘value-added’ service to clients, and the clients who didn’t get trashed last year, or even the ones that did, seem to have dipped back into exotic transaction land, bolstered by stock price euphoria and the bubble mentality of not wanting to miss anything—again. We’ve been here before. It’s amazing no lessons have been learned.
But, since they haven’t, and complexity is making its way back into the game, Goldman will continue to thrive.
She's pretty explicit about who she's accusing of failure to learn and it isn't Goldman:
...their stock price is likely to continue to rise—that is, until the government gets wise to the dangers of risk driven profitability. Since that wisdom wasn’t achieved from the experience of this crisis and bailout, until and unless the next leg of the crisis smacks Washington even harder in the head, Goldman will keep winning.
Wow. I can't believe your crystal ball is even darker than mine.
Let me clarify. I'm not predicting Civil War in a guns sense. I am predicting a lot of non-compliance in the "regions" of the US Empire. There will be much civil disobedience (not paying mortgages, anyone?), paper smoke & mirrors, and a general weakening of our Federal system. As states realize that they are fighting other states for taxes, resources, and revenues, I see people finding ways to gridlock the legal system (more than it is now) to allow wiggle room.
.
Congress won't be able to handle 50 states beating on the door unless they figure out a way to let Wall*Street earn service fees on the bonds issued to the states?
EHP,
So your 'theory' is Machiavelli had more influence on Stalin than Marx. Sounds interesting(as disinfo) but the whole Bolshevik scam was supposedly based on Marxian theory. Obviously it was a criminal enterprise which makes the theories questionable as the main inspiration.
Just like the Civil War wasn't really about slavery, this new war will have causes and "causes".
From the wiki: The corporations hold an emergency meeting to discuss Jonathan's obstinate refusal to retire, and decide that the championship game against the New York team will be played without penalties, player substitutions, or a time-limit, in the hope that Jonathan, if he decides to participate, will be killed during the course of the game. The executives' meeting reveals why they are demanding Jonathan's retirement: Rollerball was conceived not merely to slake bloodlust, but to demonstrate the futility of individualism.
Somehow I don't think Houston will be the HQ of the Energy Corporation when real life imitates art.
John Gerspach sez: The trend in the 90 to 179 day bucket has reversed this quarter, but can be largely explained by the loan modification program known as Home Affordable Modification or HAMP. We have approximately $6 billion of on-balance sheet mortgages in this program. Under HAMP, borrowers make reduced mortgage payments for a trial period, during which they continue to age through our delinquency buckets even if they are current under the new payment terms
Translation: "Our 90+ buckets are about 0.7% higher than they would have been in the absence of our HAMP implementation."
In addition, the Fed dropped interest rates to zero. In normal times, this flood of free money would have been wildly inflationary. But in that same year, prices have fallen 1.3%.
It is wildly inflationary in a sense, the same as it has been over the past 40 years.
The American public has not only been robbed by 4% annual inflation since 1970, we've been robbed of the 3% deflation that would have occurred. That's a 7% swing.
Am I wrong, or does the editor's lead-in paragraph ("...But behind the giddy numbers, Nomi Prins argues, are signs that the bank hasn't learned any lessons from the downturn.") completely misrepresent her article? She outlines all the "treats" Goldman received to offset their suffering from last year's meltdown.....
I think that is meant to mean that they haven't learned what she considers to be the right lessons. Learning the wrong lessons is the "moral hazard" mentioned so often in regards to the various bailouts. I suppose you are correct in that they HAVE "learned", but I think it's a technicality-
Very much so - appear to be both an immediate destabilization campaign and geared to maximize the Army response to generate the largest refugee flows - recall the UN food aid office attack that shut them down recently...keen to heary alybaba's views on recent events as well...they seem a bit ominous.
The neo-Marxists obviously figured out Marxian theory was not 'properly' used or implemented in the totalitarian Soviet Union. Free market theories are distorted or ignored in the U.S. political/economy 'system'. Theories are bunk when some form of international organized crime takes over where ever it 'happens' or the 'economic theory' that preceded it.
You're crediting to Prins a sentence from the Daily Beast's front-page lead-in link to the article, which I seriously doubt was written by Prins herself.
Cinco-X,
What were the 'Jesus' economic theories? Turn over money lenders tables?
For real?...'Jesus was far greater an enemy of private property that Marx'. Really?
You're crediting to Prins a sentence from the Daily Beast's front-page lead-in link to the article, which I seriously doubt was written by Prins herself.
I'll back you up in the sense that my limited impression of Prins is that she's more intelligent than that; I'm pretty sure she's one of the reporters who might actually understand how Wall Street is incorporating the new moral hazard universe into their profit margins.
The U.S. Treasury Department criticized China for the “lack of flexibility” of the yuan and a buildup of foreign-exchange reserves while stopping short of branding the nation a manipulator of its currency.
yawns Next story. It isn't even a Pot-Kettle thang. More of a yawn thang.
Yeah, and there's nothing like it in the article itself, which is about the government's and private investors' failure to learn the needed lessons from the meltdown and GS's ability to profit from that failure. There's some suggestion that GS could be in trouble if the neceesary lessons were learned but it's not nearly enough to justify the editor's summary.
the early/mid 80s Niners teams were revolutionary in terms of doing exactly that - scripting their opening dozen plays or so. That, and their then-unique approach to genuine strength conditioning led to dominance of the league for a decade. so maybe there's a better metaphor out there...
Free market theories are distorted or ignored in the U.S. political/economy 'system'.
Thank god Congress never completely abandoned common sense, or we'd probably have had a Marxist revolution by now. The free market model is operating off Somalia, in parts of Colombia, and Afghanistan
Savings bonds were created to finance World War I. In 2002, the Treasury Department started to gut the savings bond program by lowering interest and closing its marketing offices, although the program was very well known previously.
It all makes sense now. You can't have a war against saving AND offer safe and dependable savings vehicles. No way. And here's the best part. We won the war by replacing savings bonds with new fangled Trojan Horses called a "structured investment vehicles".
That, and their then-unique approach to genuine strength conditioning led to dominance of the league for a decade. so maybe there's a better metaphor out there...
You'd still know how the game was going to end after the first 15 plays, though, no?
EHP,
Another questionable debate strategy is to attribute something that wasn't said or inferred...putting words in someone's mouth...
EHP- 'Marx...was so evil you never needed to know more...' Seriously, you think I 'said' that?
As I recall, much of the purpose of those scripted plays was to get information on the other team's defensive schemes...sort of a long-winded and complex equivalent of running a cutter through the lane to find out if the other team's in man or zone.
Which would make it a pretty good metaphor for noob's point, if I understood him.
noob,
I'm saying I never thought of Jesus as an economist or an enemy of private proprerty...maybe I missed something in my grammer school education(EHP theory).
What were the 'Jesus' economic theories? Turn over money lenders tables?
For real?...'Jesus was far greater an enemy of private property that Marx'. Really?
I didn't say he was, and I'm not sure what you're driving at. Jesus flipped over the tables of the money lenders for doing business in the temple, not for making money. If you read the parable of the talents, it's clear that he and his father expected people to be industrious, not to suck off someone else's hard work.
Venezuelan Bonds Fall as PDVSA Debt Sale Sparks Supply Glut
By Daniel Cancel
Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuela’s benchmark bonds fell to a one-month low as the government prepared to follow up last week’s $5 billion bond sale with a $3 billion issue for its state-run oil company, creating a supply glut that outstrips investor demand.
The yield on Venezuela’s 9.25 percent dollar bonds maturing in 2027 climbed 35 basis points, or 0.35 percentage point, to 12.67 percent at 4:17 p.m. in New York, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The bond’s price sank 2 cents on the dollar to 76 cents after dropping 1.4 cents yesterday. Venezuela’s dollar bonds had lost 3 percent in October as of yesterday, the biggest decline among emerging-market countries tracked by JPMorgan. Venezuelan Bonds Fall as PDVSA Debt Sale Sparks Supply Glut - Bloomberg.com
The U.S. Treasury Department criticized China for the “lack of flexibility” of the yuan and a buildup of foreign-exchange reserves while stopping short of branding the nation a manipulator of its currency.
yawns Next story. It isn't even a Pot-Kettle thang. More of a yawn thang.
Actually, it's the WHOLE thing! Wanna trace problems back? Wanna blame Greenspan? Who enabled Greenspan's easy credit fiasco?
Not to change the subject or anything, but since it's GOOG reporting day: that investing-in-real-estate seminar ad on this page is an epic targeting failure.
Marx believed factory workers should have skin in the game, both because they deserved it and because it would enhance industrial output. He advocated workers owning the means of production, not the State. Bankers are workers if they add value.
Venezuelan Bonds Fall as PDVSA Debt Sale Sparks Supply Glut
But that's because they have a socialist President and are printing too much money to prop up their failing economy unlike the United States who... oh... never mind.
EvilHenryPaulson (profile) wrote on Thu, 10/15/2009 - 1:39 pm
Anyone notice the 5 terrorist attacks in Pakistan in the last day? Pakistan reels after terrorist blitz - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
alybaba, any tie-in to Kerry-Lugar?
If the anarchy spreads, then Pakistan will again have military rule in short order. The Jihadists want their own little country/territory/refuge; it used to be in Afghanistan, now its in the border region. Pakistan looked the other way all these years. The Jihadists will/can wreck havoc inside of Pakistaan; Pakistan is crowded, the loss life can be very high indeed. Another bad news is that some of the people that attacked the army hdqtrs., were from Punjab. That is the heartland.
Much of Marxian theory makes sense...try putting it into the real world of oligarchy and criminal networks. The 'dictatorship of the proletariat' got stuck in that phase in Russia/Soviet Union.
Obviously the 'free market' must be regulated for corruption...or maybe it's not so obvious?
Regrettably, the idea of a "free market" has been corrupted by both the left and the right. I view it much like a village common. You can use it freely, but if you abuse it, you end up in the stocks-
Why does the country still hate me and my president rob me, mommy?
The country has been drugged, and the President has been replaced by a clone, under the control of the evil wizards of Mordor. And I'm not really your mommy. Your mommy was a meth head and I get paid $2000 a month to put up with your shit, so STFU.
Without understanding where Russia was at the advent of communism, there is little point in debating its merits. Economically, there is no question Russia was far superior under communism than under the Russia czars. When need only look to South America to see that democracy and capitalism isn't the aphrodisiac that it is often claimed to be.
almost all of the time, the west coast offense worked (another then-innovation). the niners would have a significant lead, and would win the game. so, yes, you actually knew before the game started, because the script was good. i remember losing a bet with a gigantic spread against the bears in the playoffs in the last year or two of that era. the system still worked well a dozen years after it was introduced.
Not sure what(political economy) will work for sure but we have learned what doesn't work...over and over and over again!
Until the problem of the Smart Amoral Scum-bags is addressed AND the problem of the peasants not being allowed to participate in the screwing, nothing can change.
Nokia is at the event horizon.
Market share down to 35% from 41% one quarter ago. I think they had 60% market share not a few years ago
It sure looks like they dropped the ball, doesn't it? I heard their new strategy was making super low-cost phones to sell in the third world, abandoning the high end to other companies. Sounds like a bunch of recently-minted MBAs or workout specialists took over the company and hollowed it out.
Yeah, and who's the dude that borrowed all that loot for the 600 ship navy?
Looks like a small price compared to today's BS. BTW, it's worth noting he didn't go out and buy 600 ships at list price. Many were pulled out of mothballs, and re-de-commissioned after his term was over. Finally, this has little to do with the effects of the dot.com boom/bust and the subsequent RE boom/bust. Which is what is pertinent here. Again, if you want ot go back far enough, there's always Johnson's Guns&Butter policy.
if the comes from anywhere near an a-bomb facility:
A government contractor at Hanford, in south-central Washington State, just spent a week mapping radioactive rabbit feces with detectors mounted on a helicopter flying 50 feet over the desert scrub. An onboard computer used GPS technology to record each location so workers could return later to scoop up the droppings for disposal as low-level radioactive waste.
Actually, it's the WHOLE thing! Wanna trace problems back? Wanna blame Greenspan? Who enabled Greenspan's easy credit fiasco?
I think you have the cause and effect backwards.
Imo, the well spring of easy money came from senseless U.S. credit policies, not Chinese savings. We created way too much credit (MZM grew ~ 80% faster than nominal GDP). The excess money started to flow to China. China then reinvested the money back in the U.S. So exactly how is that a glut of savings? It was a disgraceful credit expansion and failure to enforce regulations that caused this financial calamity.
Today's high end phones are the standard phones in emerging markets within 3 years. So it will be tough to compete at the low end of the lowest end markets where you need mega-volume to make any profit. Do you see intel giving up on high end chips because they're not as profitable at the time of introduction? No because they can ride what becomes a commodity for the next 6 years all the way down the price points
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/15/2009 - 4:14 pm
merchants of fear wrote:
Not sure what(political economy) will work for sure but we have learned what doesn't work...over and over and over again!
Until the problem of the Smart Amoral Scum-bags is addressed AND the problem of the peasants not being allowed to participate in the screwing, nothing can change.
Death, or a radical and sudden alteration of female reproductive strategies (which would accomplish the same goal, but in a delayed manner).
the peasants did participate - hence the housing bubble and subsequent meltdown. similarly, today's equity and corporate bond juicing by the Fed is designed for strictly political purposes, i.e., to calm the nerves of Joe 401K (while enabling yet another round of backdated-options looting by execs, of course).
In the episode, Jesus is stated to have visited the Temple in Jerusalem, Herod's Temple, at which the courtyard is described as being filled with livestock and the tables of the money changers, who changed the standard Greek and Roman money for Jewish and Tyrian money, which were the only coinage that could be used in Temple ceremonies. According to the Gospels, Jesus took offense to this extorting profit from the people to hear the word of God. Jesus and the money changers - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
.
Since we started with the money changers...
No because they can ride what becomes a commodity for the next 6 years all the way down the price points ...
And at the same time, they have to continually re-create the high end, and hope the world buys it.That's tech in a nutshell-- it's always been that way. The difference between Intel and Apple is that Apple works hard to sell the world on the greatness of their new stuff. Intel wouldn't know good marketing if it crept up and slapped them in the face. And here's another clue. Intel still thinks it's a hardware company. I kid you not. The hardware engineering mentality refuses to die.
Intel still thinks it's a hardware company. I kid you not. The hardware engineering mentality defused to die.
scone
In many ways, Intel is a hardware company. They could get more benefit out of it by working on other areas, but without the hardware to feed them those other areas just die on the vine. just my outsider's opinion, I know you're closer to the company than I
I don't; if we continually shipped dollars to China in return for goods, and there was no currency intervention on their part, they'd have a surplus of dollars, and the value of these dollars would decline. By buying up dollars, they "propped up" our currency enabling us to buy more, killing jobs here. These "senseless policies" would not have been possible without someone to continually buy debt.
badger, I expect you know Russia was not static in the years leading to 1917, nor were the years 1917-18 an experience anyone would have preferred to the preceding circumstances. I think the economic conditions - then as now - tell only a part of the story, and perhaps not the main part at that.
Some say that Intel cut a deal with Microsoft to stay out of the software business, if MS would cut off support for other CPU architectures. Remember NT used to be portable?
I remember Intel's compilers used to be much better than Microsoft's, back when I paid attention to stuff like that.
Marx would have been blown away at the 'deception' and 'profit' potential of financialization and derivativization.
The Mortgage Bankers Association and the banking lobby are back warning that any attempt at actual accounting will threaten their industries, and what's bad for them is awful for America. "Nice recovery you got there, guv, you wouldn't want anything to happen to it, would you?" It's of course real funny that they indirectly and inadvertently tell us that the entire so-called recovery is based on nothing but Don't Look Don’t Tell policies.
-Automatic Earth
On Monday, the same court, based in Urumqi, the capital of the western Xinjiang region, condemned to death six men with Uighur names in connection with the riots. The unrest in July left 197 people dead and more than 1,600 injured, most of them Han, according to the government’s reports. A seventh man was given a life sentence. Those were the first sentences handed down in the aftermath of the riots, and they have been widely criticized by Uighur groups in exile.
How many were sentenced to death after LA riots? China is a different place, far removed in so many ways. We cannot compete with China, not until we can deal with miscreants in a similar way. The wall street greed and anarchy/anything goes case in point.
We built this Citi on public funds
Meredith Whitney is a hottie.
This is what you get for legalizing HAMP. We should have known better.
I know ... too many posts. I'll take a break. But this one is important - the success or failure of HAMP will really impact the housing market in the short term. Longer term, I think this is just "extend and pretend" without principal reductions.
best to all
More of the same, 'hamping the public'.
volker the viking wrote:
Yes. Yes she is.
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Never too many posts. Did you see how that last thread devolved? If anything, send 'em out quicker
In an effort to improve their tarnished public image the banker rats are now HAMPsters.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Thread over. Time for a
, CR.
Obfuscating, and dry as hell.. A dry HAMP.
totally on-topic, someone posted this last thread.
Get a clue people, just stop paying your mortgage and you get the same benefits, without additional debt, and NO payments, not even $25 a month.
Focus growing on helping jobless homeowners Capitol Report - MarketWatch
"WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Using taxpayer funds to keep out-of-work homeowners in their homes until they find another job is an option being looked at by some officials in the Obama administration, according to people familiar with government financial rescue programs.
At issue is an administration program that is employing $50 billion in taxpayer funds from the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program to help lenders modify mortgages for troubled homeowners"
The DOW shall not, the DOW shall not go down
The DOW shall not, the DOW shall not go down
Deep in your heart, you must know that
The DOW shall not go down.
HAMP = Enzyte...Extend and Pretend.
There are currently 80 users and 468 guests online.
Is that on the high side?
SNAFU wrote:
An increasing gloominess...
This gov't aid is HAMPering my
buzz.
Ghost,
I left you a response on the last thread.
SNAFU wrote:
High # of users, low # of guests. We're starting to suck them into the commentariat, it seems.
Now John Gerspach has the face of Smilin' Bob. Eewww.
Does anyone see which page their breakdown of Tier 1, 2, and 3 is? They reference Tier 1 at 12.7%, but I can't seem to find the other two ratios.
Am I blind?
noob goldberg wrote:
I see many new names and a couple of old ones who haven't been around much lately.
Whatever happened to Margin Call of Cthulhu? That was a great handle.
Citi sure used allot of words to say "We don't know and if we did we aren't telling."
Therrrrre's a hole in the bucket, dear Liza, dear Liza
There's a hole in the bucket, dear Liza a hole.
Well, fix it dear Henry, dear Henry dear Henry. . .
Etc.
noob goldberg wrote:
Okay, I don't see other ratios referred to, but slide 22 has a reference to Key Capital Metrics.
Maybe someone can explain to me how Q2-09 and Q3-09 Tier 1 capital and total capital are identical even with the changes we've seen in the markets over the past four months.
Wow. Hamp is legal? Did NORML finally win? What will happen to High Times magazine?
many years ago I lived across from a polling place.
Had a yard sign saying
Cthulhu
Why Vote For The
Lesser Evil
Love the looks from people walking down the street to go vote.
why do you hate america?
josap wrote:
Actually it was more like: "You don't know and we're not telling you." They could have done analyses of failure rates during the trial period, etc., to make (admittedly rough) estimates. They didn't - and they didn't give us numbers to estimate them either. I find this extremely telling.
Hey, whatdya know, the dow is back in the green for the day! Imagine that!
"Don't blame me. I voted for Kodos."
[best comment on the current political system ever]
I don't think they know, because they could care less if the mods work.
The Fed forced them to do the mods, they don't like being told what to do.
And when the mods reforclose they can say, Hoocoodanode?
I dunno but Gournet Magazine is toast, errr, toast crums for the pidgeons.
Maybe they just don't know and don't think their current experience is indicative of future results. It wouldn't be unheard of.
Idiots! Foreclosures started climbing in 2007 then Lehman crashed and the swindle began to unravel. Fix the foreclosures was chanted through the streets. Enter TARP 2008 which shifty Paulson chose to direct to the Bernanke Bail Buddy fund. Then HAMP, HARP, HAFA no HOPE and here we are talking about maaaaybe some mod results won't be known till 2010. Start the free homes for all program now and lets get this crash over. With my free car, house, money and healthcare I'd like a boat ramp for my new Obama boat.
badger wrote:
Are you talking about mods, or his comment on overall creditworthiness within Citi's mortgage portfolio?
digalert wrote:
I can't believe they don't have even a clue as to how these mods are performing.
I think it more likely that they're hoping the story will be happier in 2010. But that's just me.
I'm talking about their experience with mods and HAMP in particular.
"HAMP also reduces net credit losses as loans in the trial period do not get charged off at 180 days past-due as long as they have made at least one payment."
That part should be in bold.
I wonder if anybody at Campbell's has thought seriously about selling "Bailout Soup," using only the letters from the various bailout-related government acronyms. I think it would sell well. Imagine the kids trying to catch HAMP, TALF, TARP etc in their spoon. What a great economic lesson for the next generation.
badger wrote:
This is where Tanta would be a good help, because I don't understand the technicalities preventing an understanding of how mods are performing. Why is it so hard to get this data?
I love Hemp....oh my bad wrong topic
CNBC mentions CR, congratulations!
Seriously Folks the Housing Bubble Is Back: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance
Because they don't want us to have the data. End of story.
Rotary wing aircraft on the horizon

Prepare for a
drop.
some investor guy wrote:
So, does this mean that a homeowners receiving the mod only have to make one payment in three months in order to stave off bank action? I don't understand the import of this statement.
Maybe it's one payment in order to keep the bank from having to start booking losses.
josap wrote:
Okay, that makes sense. It was sounding like it was somehow impossible to get the data, and that was sounding weird to me.
I'm not in banking, but have a broad stats background. I find it completely feasible that with very little data, broad lessons aren't being learned. New programs have all sorts of problems like just getting the programming done; some regions getting access and training before others; etc.
It may have been the other way, CR mentioned CNBC, Diana Olick, yesterday. Too pointers going every which way.
josap wrote:
While they're mod'img these loans, they don't have to recognize their losses, and they can also boost their bonuses for doing such a bang up job-
Booking losses would mean the banks are visibly insolvent, which means more Fed reserve pump, which is awkward. No data, no visible losses, no pump, and happy markets all around.
ghost,
to your dollar bearishness, what do you think of this: FT.com / Capital Markets - European nations opt for dollar issues ?
As a bit of a counterpoint
“European governments are having to raise money in dollars because of difficulties in attracting investors in their domestic markets due to the intense competition for funds. Croatia joined the growing trend of issuing in dollars on Wednesday when it announced plans to issue its first bond in the US currency, with Barclays Capital, Citigroup and JPMorgan arranging the deal. It is expected to raise $500m. Lithuania issued its first dollar bond last week, raising $1.5bn in five-year paper. The Poles have raised money in dollars, Swiss-francs and euros this year.
Germany, Italy, Austria, Belgium, Portugal and Spain have also issued debt in dollars in recent months, according to Dealogic.”
That looks like pretty much the EU to me. Should support the $ later on. Not good for the eurozone when Germany (!) borrows in dollars.
Quite a bit of data on the positive side of things today.
I would say we're on course to see positive employment growth, and a bottom in inventory in about 3 months time.
Problem is, a majority of this momentum is from government spending which has peaked in pace and will decline in 2.5 months. A lot of the most efficient spending programs cut out by year end, so it will decidedly be bad news.
Then you add in the seasonal factors that will drive layoffs. We'll be back into the zone of negative momentum. That's even if the USD holds this level until year end, and banks don't expedite foreclosures as they have warned and shown early indications of (living rent free is a big boost to the economy)
The thing that locks in that scenario for me is the complacency. Not just in Congress. Everyone has had it beat into their heads that H2 = recovery. Someone posted a link to a Rasmussen reports video bit earlier today, as the % of homeowners that are negative equity declined, so has support for the $75bn HAMP. Probably the same results for FTHB. The FHA will need a big capital infusion once the debt ceiling gets increased. Along with the FDIC, and Fannie Mae. Having that backlog of $bn spending items scroll across the evening news will make a lot of people sick, and even more likely to oppose further subsidies and extensions of current support. There won't be any further stimulus until we're weeks back into free fall.
badger wrote:
scone wrote:
So either the program is so new that they can't access data and are flying completely blind, or they have the data but don't want to release it because it would render them insolvent.
I'm happy we're in good hands.
Let's say that half of the $7.57 billion of 180 day late loans are HAMP, and thus aren't being written down. $3.8 billion. Now, let's say that they get stellar results compared to others and 50% of the HAMP loans actually get modified and stay performing. That's $1.9 billion that go into foreclosure, probably with losses exceeding half of the loan values.
So, has HAMP allowed Citi to delay recognition of $1 billion+ in losses? Anybody with an alternate calculation?
Isn't borrowing in Dollars to do Euro buisness tantamount to shorting the dollar?
SNAFU wrote:
Inventory is generally 1/3rd to 1/4tr of what it was last year. So the number of buyers has probably only doubled.
some investor guy wrote:
The thing is that reserves have already been booked. If someone is in 90 day delinquent bucket, the bank is already required to put aside additional reserves. A lot of smaller banks were already complaining that the OTC made them increase reserves on their good loans.
As far as the data is concerned, I'm sure they access, but I imagine it is akin to knowing the outcome of the first 15 plays in a football game, near worthless.
Russia ready to drop dollar in energy trade with China, Putin says
Russia ready to drop dollar in energy trade with China, Putin says | Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee
they have the data but don't want to release it because it would render them insolvent. - ng
As a former database and systems analyst I guarantee they have the data, even if it's just in paper files. But the banks themselves, at the level of managers in the rank and file, do not want to show, in detail, how much they have fucked up. Managers with lots of losses are sweating bullets right now. It's not as if there are a lot of low-level banker jobs out there. They have their own mortgage, retirement, and college tuition payments to worry about. The whole industry is highly motivated to deep-six a lot of data. A lot. We may never get to the bottom of it all.
EHP - What surprises me the most is how little of the "stimulus" money has actually gone to anything that is in any way indicative of forward motion... very little growith, job creation, or payback, much less simple return on investment. Money down a hole.
Interestingly this 'money down a hole' does slosh around, so it will have a temporary effect. I'm in a company that does lots of business with public utilities and we are seeing a definite upswing and inquiries due to energy projects on the horizon as stimulus money gets disbursed. We know it's temporary, though, and are preparing accordingly.
badger wrote:
The problem is one of money. $75bn in modification incentives. Main drivers of foreclosure are negative equity, followed closely by unemployment. There were about 800k mortgages in the trial mod state, assume 250k per mortgage, that is $200bn of mortgages.
There's 50mn mortgages out there, at least 20mn still under water and not foreclosed.
The problem is not hard to solve, it's the results are tough to accept.
I want a tax MOD so I can party with no responsibility!
badger wrote:
I can't disagree with that statement, but they've already modified loans and probably have some data. If that data shows, for example, that 30% made only one payment before sliding back into delinquency, we can guess how the football game is going to end.
It seems so...that piece I linked mentioned a "basis trade" where the issuer turns around and sells the dollar proceeds to get euros that they can use. Seems to me that this says euro domestic capital is all locked up in stabilizing the system so the govts borrow from US IB's who have the funds due to Bernanke and Co.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
I think there are quite a few of us who could think of more productive ways for the government to spend (or not spend) a trillion dollars in dealing with this crisis. Very large social infrastructure projects, lofty research goals, etc etc have all been batted around here at various times. Most anything is better than throwing good money after bad in trying to support asset prices.
It's utterly amazing that they call this a recovery, and yet we've got record unemployment, record foreclosures, record bailouts, record stimulii, record QE, and all still rising. Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall, HD had a great fall, and all the king's horses and all the king's men still have not been able to put
HD together again
HAMP was announced in March 2009.
~800k loans are in the trial phase (if the loan can stay current for 3 months at new payment levels, declared a success and FHA buys up the modified mortgage)
1700 had succeeded in the first 7 months.
44.5% of those were done by Ocwen, leaving the average success rate at 0.7%
10% of mortgages being modified is probably an optimistic number
Remember, the FHA needs more cash as it has a 2% capital requirement
It's utterly amazing that they call this a recovery, and yet we've got record unemployment, record foreclosures, record bailouts, record stimulii, record QE, and all still rising.
It's just a mental recession.
t r orwell wrote:
Ahh, but those are all trailing indicators. The Leading Economic Indicators are all green shootie.
Although IIRC the commentariat and maybe even CR had some fun with the LEI a few weeks ago...
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/15/2009 - 2:26 pm
I think there are quite a few of us who could think of more productive ways for the government to spend (or not spend) a trillion dollars in dealing with this crisis. Very large social infrastructure projects, lofty research goals, etc etc have all been batted around here at various times. Most anything is better than throwing good money after bad in trying to support asset prices.
Most of it isn't even that noble. It's band-aids to allow states to avoid layoffs and cutbacks, and other sorts of aid that has little to nothing to do with economic stimulus. A lot of the money earmarked for energy, infrastructure etc. has yet to hit with much force. Saving unnecessary public jobs and holding up inflated public salaries for jobs that are no longer needed is even less useful than one-shot hits for consumption items since it's a recurring cost (and a recurring deficit).
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
For a few days there I had almost (well, not quite) managed to push the predicament of the states out of my mind.
Anyone else think dealing with individual state revenue shortfalls is going to be the real test of Obama's Presidency?
ResistanceIsFeudal,
That's the thing about financial crisis spending. The worse it is, the more effective it can be. Ultimately it's free money to someone, and that takes some pressure off at that point (eg could you imagine if States had to cut their workforce by 40%, double taxes, liquidate property and accounts?)
The most important thing is that the spending doesn't cut into the existing market share of someone else that contributes to GDP.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
You mean things like government spending and/or raising taxes?
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
What about a government takeover of an entire facet of the economy...like credit provision?
noob goldberg,
You know how many billions in fees have been made issuing government guaranteed credit, or buying securities on behalf of the government this year?
EvilHenryPaulson (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/15/2009 - 2:32 pm
ResistanceIsFeudal,
That's the thing about financial crisis spending. The worse it is, the more effective it can be. Ultimately it's free money to someone, and that takes some pressure off at that point (eg could you imagine if States had to cut their workforce by 40%, double taxes, liquidate property and accounts?)
The most important thing is that the spending doesn't cut into the existing market share of someone else that contributes to GDP.
I've read my Keynes, and can't disagree even though I hate the idea in principle. Hopefully those states bought enough time to lessen the impact but there MUST BE an impact. Otherwise they go on life-support as a recurring cost to all taxpayers. We hope they are preparing for the reality instead of using their resources and pull to coax another fix out of Uncle Sugar. Unfortunately that's exactly what happens...
We can 'reinflate' our way out of the RE bubble according to highly regarded economists (advising the policy makers) who know the currency will devalue as a result of the crushing debt with interest becoming unpayable unless printing occurs. Pay no attention to any relevant & extensive published research on govt overspending, currency crisis, regulatory failure, and structural imbalances.
I don't think Keynes applies to this situation at all. The only time Keynes would apply is if the government is arbitraging down a false expectation in the future of the economy, and it should apply as much to downturns as it does upturns. You could extend that to include choosing to absorb losses over a longer timeframe, but by that point you're choosing favourites within the economy and probably going to screw things up for a later date instead of resolving the problem up front
Lawmakers OK small-bank exemption from oversight
Lawmakers OK small-bank exemption from oversight - MarketWatch
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
No, but I had imagined it was a huge amount. I'm not arguing that government's foray into backstopping credit has hurt the banks; I'm more concerned that it's hurt the economy, especially in the long term.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Rob Dawg,
A shift towards more efficiency in the economy is best left to a time when there isn't slack in the economy (I know where you were going with that, but I can consistently respond to it 6 ways from Sunday)
There's a 'disconnect' between reality and the propaganda soon to be settled by the rush out of the carnival in babylon.
noob goldberg wrote:
It's like Weekened at Bernie's. He's already dead, what's the worst that could happen?
They could make a sequel.
Ground control to central command...red alert!
hahahahaha - ouch
High oil prices drive the cost of all goods higher. The answer to this....lose more jobs to
offset inflation pressures.
...And lose we will.....
EvilHenryPaulson (profile) wrote on Thu, 10/15/2009 - 2:42 pm
I don't think Keynes applies to this situation at all. The only time Keynes would apply is if the government is arbitraging down a false expectation in the future of the economy, and it should apply as much to downturns as it does upturns. You could extend that to include choosing to absorb losses over a longer timeframe, but by that point you're choosing favourites within the economy and probably going to screw things up for a later date instead of resolving the problem up front
I mentioned Keynes mostly just to indicate I wasn't an "Austrian fundamentalist" and was acquainted with the concept and theoretical justifications for deficit spending. My opinion would be that using the money (borrowed from the future, effectively) to mitigate and smooth anticipated impacts was a reasonable use of stimulus, even if it meant picking favorites/selection bias.
LOL
My old house in SF was named The House on Nyarlathotep Corner.
CR: as a sentiment investor, thought you might want to see this:
Pension Funds Learn to Say, "Sell!"
The best thing for TBTF PTB can do is put out gibberish and hope for a distraction/diversion of immense proportions...
Noob, how can you call it fixed when it's still broken? It's probably hard to see the cracks when you're watchin from canada, but no worry, it's comin your way.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Govt actions have been forcing out private activity in near every aspect of the economy. You know where I'm going with this too. Doing nothing and letting the GDP take the hit from reduced activity is actually preferable to the anti-GDP effects of govt substitution.
come on, HAL..... you can see the high of the day from here!
Shill,
It's only 'fair' as the big banks are exempt from oversight...
Define fixed.
"It's like Weekened at Bernie's. He's already dead, what's the worst that could happen? "
Matybe for Bernie, but for the fools holding him up its another story.
"A shift towards more efficiency in the economy is best left to a time when there isn't slack in the economy "
Hmm. I would think that when the economy is in "slack" mode would be the ideal time to reorganize. Far easer to kill off the marginal players when the do not have the wherewithal to fight back. Shame O' did not take advantage to finish off the TBTF while they had their hand out.,
ResistanceIsFeudal,
It's a trade off. The government can keep GDP level, by substituting contraction in private debt with new public debt. However, you'll never get any GDP growth. So if you can grow your GDP by increasing exports, then it's not a bad plan to spread out the adjustment over a long time while being pulled along by the economies of your export markets.
This time, the world world is up the creek so exports are not a solution, and certainly not one that a majority of the world's economies can rely on.
For a sampling to support that point that there are no export markets free to exploit
Macro Man: There Is No Divine Right To A Trade Surplus
The world economy is tracking or doing worse than during the Great Depression (September 2009 update) | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists
Global Economy Matters
HAL is 'dying' and singing 'Daisy'...
t r orwell wrote:
Did I say it was fixed? That would have been a mistype.
EHP is arguing--rightly--that these actions are a hail mary in the ER; damned the consequences, let's just get the patient stabilized.
My argument is that we've chopped off the arms, legs, eyes and ears of the patient in order to stabilize them. Even if they pull through recovery, it's unwise to expect the same performance if they ever manage to get back to work.
some investor guy wrote:
Can anyone explain the accounting treatment of HAMPed loans? Does this statement imply that no impairment charge at all has been taken on loans in the trial period as long as at least one payment has been made, or in other words that these loans appear on the books as if they were current? Or are they saying that they don't take the full charge-off they would ordinarily take on a 180-day past due loan, but they've taken some sort of charge?
Anon2 (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/15/2009 - 2:54 pm
"It's like Weekened at Bernie's. He's already dead, what's the worst that could happen? "
Matybe for Bernie, but for the fools holding him up its another story.
The fools also won't do this for free. They require billions for their services, much of it payed out to them as bonuses.
'Fixed' means the 'fix' is in...and the 'Sting' is here.
bring on the GOOG earnings.....
dow 36,000, here we come!
We all live in the HAMPtons.
Hayek v. Keynes Deathmatch Round 12.1 trillion with $643 trillion in side bets riding on the outcome.
Rob Dawg,
There's no single optimal equilibrium for government, or the structure of the economy. Anything I would have to say would be dependent on time and place (including recent history and nearest neighbours).
And the 'doller' equals 42 cents.
.....this reminds me of feeding my chickens.......Me carrying the stainless bucket is the first sign they see - the smarter hens start walking my way. Then they hear the familiar, "Heeeere....Chick, chick, chick, chick, chick" - and they ALL start running to me. I'll walk out to where I want them fed, them all happily clucking, following me like a pied piper. I'll throw a handful of grain in one direction, they'll cluck and scurry to the food, I'll throw some more feed 10-15 feet from the first, and half of them will follow the new food, clucking loudly. I repeat this over and over until my day's bucket is empty and they're all busily clucking over their new food............A lot of times I feel like I'm President Obama............How many of you guys feel like the chicken?
The 'pump and dump' works like a charm every time...
Hayek v. Keynes Deathmatch Round 12.1 - RD
More like an unholy mating to create the evil spawn: USA 2.0.
The media has supplied the SOMA...
Rob Dawg,
They're both dead, and have too many people speaking for them.
They each have strong and weak points in their work. But most importantly, they are dead. This is our mess.
seems the aftermarket likes the GOOG numbers.
Low market interest rates should continue to induce savers to diversify into riskier assets... - Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, October 13, 2009
Oil is at $77.50/bbl. Up > 100% from the year's lows.
Mission Accomplished! Pain City, here we come.
did teh GOOG beat the street?
When you spell dubya, don't forget there's a big, wide upside down little "v" in the middle.
I call with the red 3's. 7,8,9,10 of spades on board.
did teh GOOG beat the street?
Like a red-haired stepchild.
noob goldberg wrote:
I don't know about the state level, but local governments and school districts in CA have planned budget cuts for the next two fiscal years (2010-11, and 2011-12). This after painful cuts for 2009-10. Many are spending reserves right now to stay afloat.
We thought Marx was dead too.
Yalt - my understanding is that they are reflected as deliquent, but do not have to be charged-off in accordance with the lender's normal policies, but this is third hand info.
What is the range of everyone's general economic expectations?
Mine goes from
Best: up to 2 year reprieve in what's referred to as a W shaped recovery, aka the early 1980s
Middle: Government spending fades before there is a self-sustaining bubble
Worst: There is no deceleration in USD declines and upward pressure on US treasury yields, all kinds of rates spike, fallout in overseas banks, which become countries failing
Mr Slippery wrote:
However, I was more thinking along the lines of Obama having the willpower and self-restraint to not give into state demands. Once that door is opened, it'll be awful hard to close again with 50 hands sticking through it.
With a determined Central Bank citizens have no rights.
Yahoo has analyst estimates at $5.42...the only EPS I can see in the presser is $5.13 but that is GAAP - what is the equivalent to the street expectations number?
Google Announces Third Quarter 2009 Results - Yahoo! Finance
.
Here is another that lays out the 'beat'
Google tops estimates with third-quarter results - MarketWatch
merchants of fear wrote:
What do you have against Marx and/or his Zombie?
Here's a happy story about the behavior of our friends at JPM. Making money the old fashion way....
Bank Deals - Best Rates and Deals
If you had opened a 5% WaMu CD last year and that CD is new maturing as a Chase CD, it's important not to let it automatically renew. One reader just emailed me what happened to his friend:
A friend of mine had a Chase/WAMU CD flip over. It used to be at WAMU. To cancel this Chase $100k CD, Chase wants $3k + $25. At the new interest rate of 0.20 for 12 months, that is a 15 YEAR interest penalty for cancelling the CD. I know of no other bank in the world that charges this.</i>
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Actually, mine is very similar to yours, with my current expectation somewhere between the best and middle-case scenario. But I'm watching the USD pretty close these days, waiting for something to spark a short squeeze; otherwise, it's option 3 all the way.
Gibberish and make believe lalaland is not sound economic theory...good economic theory seeking stability is haunted by real world corrupted monopolization processes...
Worst scenario: A whole generation is ripped off 'from' their life 'savings' and pauperized into bankrupted debt peons...
merchants of fear wrote:
You can't hardly expect us to throw out everything we've accomplished over the past 50 years.
merchants of fear
Why have you been afraid to read Das Kapital? Being afraid of a book is a really silly thing
noob goldberg wrote:
Or the automotive industry, or health care?
noob,
Yeah we still have cheap bicycles made in China...
What is the range of everyone's general economic expectations?
Best case: Middling level deflation leading to slow 20 year declining Great Britain/Japan scenario.
Worst case: Same as above with middling inflation overlay. "Extend and pretend" goes out 40-60 years. Decline and Fall of the West. Mordor wins it all.
All cases: Fed spending gets no traction, like pushing on a string.
Black Star Ranch (profile) wrote on Thu, 10/15/2009 - 3:00 pm
I'll throw a handful of grain in one direction, they'll cluck and scurry to the food, I'll throw some more feed 10-15 feet from the first, and half of them will follow the new food, clucking loudly. I repeat this over and over until my day's bucket is empty and they're all busily clucking over their new food............
That's exactly what they're trying to turn us into. It's working too. Now all you need to do is start taking bets on what the chickens will do when you throw food. Obviously refusing the free lunch would be a stupid choice.
EHP,
Most of Marx is too boring and who can rely on translations...the theory became the Soviet Union...hopefully never again...
just did an apple web store price check. Usually they have been pretty good at re-aligning their prices because they're vertically integrated.
The CAD prices relative to USD prices are anywhere from 11% to 22% higher, with 16% higher the most common. The exchange rate is only 3% higher for now.
I was just reflecting, again, on ow much the current economic mess revolves around housing. I can think of three easy reasons for credit decline: (1) lack of credit worthiness (loss of jobs, malinvestment), (2) banks know their assets are listed at nowhere near real value. Since they can park funds at the Fed and make money, they have decided to recapitalize the slow way, (3) those with jobs are afraid to spend.
A little more musing on that topic led me to an obvious issue: home mortgages are greatly in excess of unemployment benefits. If a lost job all but guarantees a lost home, everyone is saving as much as possible so that they can avoid being forced into liquidation in the length of time it would take to find another job.
So we get a deflationary spiral that can really only be broken with a combination of decent jobs and lower housing prices. An hopefully a whole new generation of people who will know not to over-extend themselves.
noob goldberg wrote:
True. But the Feds are already funding several state unemployment funds that are under water.
merchants of fear wrote:
As long as we're both talking about the discipline's fixation on neo-classical economics, then yeah.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Pretty soon we'll be talking about some "real" money-
merchants of fear,
No mention of Machiavelli? I'm afraid you had a limited education, a product of the cold war
merchants of fear wrote:
Who is 'WE'?
Mr Slippery wrote:
And how quickly are those states working on realigning spending to tax revenues?
I hate using the slippery-slope argument, but when it comes to politics it's actually true.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
...a willingness to hold strong opinions on books and authors one hasn't read.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Niccolo Machiavelli wrote:
Best case scenario:
Protectionsm kills globalization and central banking fractional reserve processes while localism takes off killing the predatory and exploitative 'global' corporations and 'financialization scams'...
Why should state govt. bankruptcies in the U.S. bother Obama?
He needs to keep his eye on the ball in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Rajmenistan, Kurdistan and Turdistan.
Yalt wrote:
I feel that way about Danielle Steele. But I refuse to waste the necessary Sunday afternoon to determine if my feeling is rational.
rich wrote:
I've read it twice, and I'm still torn between Snark and No-snark...
The 'Stan .... wasn't that a long, apocalyptic Stephen King novel?
EHP,
How would you know about my 'education'? You claim it's 'limited'. From your soap box, are you a Professor of something?
Goldman Strikes Gold Again
by Nomi Prins
This morning Goldman Sachs posted near-record trading profits and bonuses. But behind the giddy numbers, Nomi Prins argues, are signs that the bank hasn't learned any lessons from the downturn.
Protectionism has quietly been ramping up.
EU / US / China
100% tariffs
worrisome is that the only surplus countries that have gone to deficit are Canada, Japan
EU, China, Switzerland, Korea, have all been protecting their trade balance successfully.
It is improbable that a few countries can absorb the whole impact alone.
WASHINGTON -- It's been over a year since Congress passed the $700 billion bank bailout and the Federal Reserve started creating new money--a trillion new dollars and counting--out of thin air to prop up the U.S. economy. In addition, the Fed dropped interest rates to zero. In normal times, this flood of free money would have been wildly inflationary. But in that same year, prices have fallen 1.3%.
Yalt & EHP,
You want to obsess over failed theories, somehow defend what's happened possibly, or look at what may work better in the future?
Cinco-X wrote:
I just choked on my coffee!
What a load of crap. They've learned plenty: like the lesson on how they now can make even larger bets because they're leveraging the creditworthiness of the entire United States of America.
Re: D. Steele.
I assure you it is rational. She is awful on tape and to read.
Strangely enough, I found Jane Austin impossible to listen to on tape.
merchants of fear wrote:
Oddly, protectionism may actually save it; China's propping up of the USD for the last 10 years has distorted things badly, and is about to kill the largest "free" consumer market in the world. Bringing the world back to reality will ultimately be a good thing-
noob goldberg wrote:
I am wondering how that dynamic is going to play out: WallStreet v. The States. Right now, I'd argue that the states have been bent over a barrel because of their dependency on Federal aid for roads, schools, health care and other things. However if Congress busts the banks for WallStreet, it sets up a fight of Federal v. States in regards to the flow of money v. the obeisance of The Law.
.
Just like the Civil War wasn't really about slavery, this new war will have causes and "causes".
I was gonna open a savings account today at Mellon.
The interest rate was 1/4% on a 3 month CD!! I said, make it a checking account.
merchants of fear,
It's in the way you write. I'm sorry if it hurt you for me to say so, but you did bring it up, to be fair, with your claim that Marx created the USSR and was so evil you never needed to know more.
The reason why I brought up Machiavelli is that he had more influence on Stalin, Hitler, Mussolini, and others than Marx ever had on a country. It was a test of how simple your world view was.
yagij wrote:
Wow. I can't believe your crystal ball is even darker than mine.
Cinco-X,
Western 'democracies' and their mainstream political/economics and public opinion discredited 'Marxism' I thought...
noob goldberg wrote:
Exactly! They've learned the WRONG lessons. BTW, that was written by Ms. Prins, not me-
lawyerliz wrote:
And this is why I open up my deepest feelings to strangers on the internet. You just saved me a wasted Sunday!
Cinco-X wrote:
I know. You and I will continue to rant in solidarity, brother.
merchants of fear wrote:
Unless you are one of the smart amoral scum-bags who benefit. Most of the peasant won't notice anyway.
Marx/Soviet Union.
Classic thought-terminating cliche.
Cinco-X wrote:
the more things have changed, the more they will stay the same
Am I wrong, or does the editor's lead-in paragraph ("...But behind the giddy numbers, Nomi Prins argues, are signs that the bank hasn't learned any lessons from the downturn.") completely misrepresent her article? She outlines all the "treats" Goldman received to offset their suffering from last year's meltdown, then says:
But, there’s something ominous about the giddy trading figures, even besides the risk they represent. In terms of complex transactions, the more clients are convinced to add bells and whistles to their transactions, the more revenue is maximized for the bank. People get paid big bonuses for this ‘value-added’ service to clients, and the clients who didn’t get trashed last year, or even the ones that did, seem to have dipped back into exotic transaction land, bolstered by stock price euphoria and the bubble mentality of not wanting to miss anything—again. We’ve been here before. It’s amazing no lessons have been learned.
But, since they haven’t, and complexity is making its way back into the game, Goldman will continue to thrive.
She's pretty explicit about who she's accusing of failure to learn and it isn't Goldman:
...their stock price is likely to continue to rise—that is, until the government gets wise to the dangers of risk driven profitability. Since that wisdom wasn’t achieved from the experience of this crisis and bailout, until and unless the next leg of the crisis smacks Washington even harder in the head, Goldman will keep winning.
noob goldberg wrote:
Let me clarify. I'm not predicting Civil War in a guns sense. I am predicting a lot of non-compliance in the "regions" of the US Empire. There will be much civil disobedience (not paying mortgages, anyone?), paper smoke & mirrors, and a general weakening of our Federal system. As states realize that they are fighting other states for taxes, resources, and revenues, I see people finding ways to gridlock the legal system (more than it is now) to allow wiggle room.
.
Congress won't be able to handle 50 states beating on the door unless they figure out a way to let Wall*Street earn service fees on the bonds issued to the states?
Jesus was far greater an enemy of private property than Marx.
EHP,
So your 'theory' is Machiavelli had more influence on Stalin than Marx. Sounds interesting(as disinfo) but the whole Bolshevik scam was supposedly based on Marxian theory. Obviously it was a criminal enterprise which makes the theories questionable as the main inspiration.
noob goldberg wrote:
Whew! I originally thought you said we be ranting in solitary, and I ran to the window and began looking for the
's
yagij wrote:
From the wiki: The corporations hold an emergency meeting to discuss Jonathan's obstinate refusal to retire, and decide that the championship game against the New York team will be played without penalties, player substitutions, or a time-limit, in the hope that Jonathan, if he decides to participate, will be killed during the course of the game. The executives' meeting reveals why they are demanding Jonathan's retirement: Rollerball was conceived not merely to slake bloodlust, but to demonstrate the futility of individualism.
Somehow I don't think Houston will be the HQ of the Energy Corporation when real life imitates art.
EHP,
I don't like(or try to avoid) mixing insults with argumentation the way you do which is a refelection on your debating 'style'.
John Gerspach sez: The trend in the 90 to 179 day bucket has reversed this quarter, but can be largely explained by the loan modification program known as Home Affordable Modification or HAMP. We have approximately $6 billion of on-balance sheet mortgages in this program. Under HAMP, borrowers make reduced mortgage payments for a trial period, during which they continue to age through our delinquency buckets even if they are current under the new payment terms
Translation: "Our 90+ buckets are about 0.7% higher than they would have been in the absence of our HAMP implementation."
Anyone notice the 5 terrorist attacks in Pakistan in the last day? Pakistan reels after terrorist blitz - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
alybaba, any tie-in to Kerry-Lugar?
In addition, the Fed dropped interest rates to zero. In normal times, this flood of free money would have been wildly inflationary. But in that same year, prices have fallen 1.3%.
It is wildly inflationary in a sense, the same as it has been over the past 40 years.
The American public has not only been robbed by 4% annual inflation since 1970, we've been robbed of the 3% deflation that would have occurred. That's a 7% swing.
Yalt wrote:
I think that is meant to mean that they haven't learned what she considers to be the right lessons. Learning the wrong lessons is the "moral hazard" mentioned so often in regards to the various bailouts. I suppose you are correct in that they HAVE "learned", but I think it's a technicality-
...or go along with what the bosses told him was beyond argument.
Yep, sounds like Marx.
yagij wrote:
You say that like it's a bad thing; BTW, you've been reported to flag@whithouse.gov
Very much so - appear to be both an immediate destabilization campaign and geared to maximize the Army response to generate the largest refugee flows - recall the UN food aid office attack that shut them down recently...keen to heary alybaba's views on recent events as well...they seem a bit ominous.
The neo-Marxists obviously figured out Marxian theory was not 'properly' used or implemented in the totalitarian Soviet Union. Free market theories are distorted or ignored in the U.S. political/economy 'system'. Theories are bunk when some form of international organized crime takes over where ever it 'happens' or the 'economic theory' that preceded it.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Please substantiate;
You're crediting to Prins a sentence from the Daily Beast's front-page lead-in link to the article, which I seriously doubt was written by Prins herself.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Is the Enron building no longer available?
The former Enron towers 1 & 2 are taken...
Cinco-X wrote:
It isn't if you want the Federal part survive. The Feds are now just drunken giants storming across the country just following the party.
Cinco-X,
What were the 'Jesus' economic theories? Turn over money lenders tables?
For real?...'Jesus was far greater an enemy of private property that Marx'. Really?
U.S. Faults China Lack of Exchange-Rate ‘Flexibility’ (Update1)
By Rebecca Christie
Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Treasury Department criticized China for the “lack of flexibility” of the yuan and a buildup of foreign-exchange reserves while stopping short of branding the nation a manipulator of its currency.
U.S. Criticizes China for Lack of Exchange-Rate ‘Flexibility’ - Bloomberg.com
Above to one currency too
Yalt wrote:
I'll back you up in the sense that my limited impression of Prins is that she's more intelligent than that; I'm pretty sure she's one of the reporters who might actually understand how Wall Street is incorporating the new moral hazard universe into their profit margins.
energyecon wrote:
yawns Next story. It isn't even a Pot-Kettle thang. More of a yawn thang.
Yeah, and there's nothing like it in the article itself, which is about the government's and private investors' failure to learn the needed lessons from the meltdown and GS's ability to profit from that failure. There's some suggestion that GS could be in trouble if the neceesary lessons were learned but it's not nearly enough to justify the editor's summary.
the early/mid 80s Niners teams were revolutionary in terms of doing exactly that - scripting their opening dozen plays or so. That, and their then-unique approach to genuine strength conditioning led to dominance of the league for a decade. so maybe there's a better metaphor out there...
merchants of fear wrote:
I think you've lost me, merchants. Are you saying Jesus was or was not a greater enemy of private property than Marx?
I gotta say that this has been a confusing thread, as opposed to most of our hoocoodanode threads, which are just silly.
Thank god Congress never completely abandoned common sense, or we'd probably have had a Marxist revolution by now. The free market model is operating off Somalia, in parts of Colombia, and Afghanistan
It's quite efficient, for the fittest of the fit.
YouTube - Burning Spear - The Fittest Of The Fittest
Anyone notice the 5 terrorist attacks in Pakistan in the last day? -EHP
NPR worries about this pretty continually. The "what if the Taliban get Pakistani nukes" meme really draws in the listeners and viewers.
United States Treasury security - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
From the above Wiki link:
Savings bonds were created to finance World War I. In 2002, the Treasury Department started to gut the savings bond program by lowering interest and closing its marketing offices, although the program was very well known previously.
It all makes sense now. You can't have a war against saving AND offer safe and dependable savings vehicles. No way. And here's the best part. We won the war by replacing savings bonds with new fangled Trojan Horses called a "structured investment vehicles".
merchants of fear wrote:
Or the Smartest Amoral Scumbags of the society figure out where the loot is. Which, is usually pretty quick or they wouldn't be all that smart.
HollywoodHack wrote:
You'd still know how the game was going to end after the first 15 plays, though, no?
...as opposed to most of our hoocoodanode threads, which are just silly. - ng
It's just a defense. We're crying on the inside.
EHP,
Another questionable debate strategy is to attribute something that wasn't said or inferred...putting words in someone's mouth...
EHP- 'Marx...was so evil you never needed to know more...' Seriously, you think I 'said' that?
As I recall, much of the purpose of those scripted plays was to get information on the other team's defensive schemes...sort of a long-winded and complex equivalent of running a cutter through the lane to find out if the other team's in man or zone.
Which would make it a pretty good metaphor for noob's point, if I understood him.
scone wrote:
It's true. I'd cut my wrists if I wasn't laughing so damned hard all the time
scone wrote:
I want to believe in my country. I want to love my President. Why does the country still hate me and my president rob me, mommy?
noob,
I'm saying I never thought of Jesus as an economist or an enemy of private proprerty...maybe I missed something in my grammer school education(EHP theory).
merchants of fear wrote:
I didn't say he was, and I'm not sure what you're driving at. Jesus flipped over the tables of the money lenders for doing business in the temple, not for making money. If you read the parable of the talents, it's clear that he and his father expected people to be industrious, not to suck off someone else's hard work.
Venezuelan Bonds Fall as PDVSA Debt Sale Sparks Supply Glut
By Daniel Cancel
Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuela’s benchmark bonds fell to a one-month low as the government prepared to follow up last week’s $5 billion bond sale with a $3 billion issue for its state-run oil company, creating a supply glut that outstrips investor demand.
The yield on Venezuela’s 9.25 percent dollar bonds maturing in 2027 climbed 35 basis points, or 0.35 percentage point, to 12.67 percent at 4:17 p.m. in New York, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. The bond’s price sank 2 cents on the dollar to 76 cents after dropping 1.4 cents yesterday. Venezuela’s dollar bonds had lost 3 percent in October as of yesterday, the biggest decline among emerging-market countries tracked by JPMorgan.
Venezuelan Bonds Fall as PDVSA Debt Sale Sparks Supply Glut - Bloomberg.com
I believe the debates over communism versus capitalism, "Austrian" economics vs neoclassical vs monetarist are reserved for after 8:00 EST.
Consider the lilies of the field....
Yalt wrote:
I think you two are associating an inappropriately and unwarranted level of intelligence and insight with the 'noob goldberg' persona.
But I'll sit back and pretend that this was all intentional. Of course I meant that. Sheeyeah, right.
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/15/2009 - 3:58 pm
It's true. I'd cut my wrists if I wasn't laughing so damned hard all the time
I am usually sobbing too hard to be able to cut my wrists. I'm just afraid I'd slip and do it wrong. One of these days, though...
Cinco-X wrote:
Uh oh. We have deities "debating". It's NEVER good when two omnipotent beings debate.
yagij wrote:
Actually, it's the WHOLE thing! Wanna trace problems back? Wanna blame Greenspan? Who enabled Greenspan's easy credit fiasco?
yogi-
Obviously the 'free market' must be regulated for corruption...or maybe it's not so obvious?
Call it, "Hoocadnode After Dark"
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
It's cutting your wrists. What would be the unexpected negative outcome (ie. how could you do it 'wrong')?
Not to change the subject or anything, but since it's GOOG reporting day: that investing-in-real-estate seminar ad on this page is an epic targeting failure.
badger,
Yeah...especially if the so-called 'debate' degenerates into false attribution, ad hominem, and such...agreed.
Marx believed factory workers should have skin in the game, both because they deserved it and because it would enhance industrial output. He advocated workers owning the means of production, not the State. Bankers are workers if they add value.
merchants of fear wrote:
Good enough for me.
hmmm...usury, what did the teacher say about that again?
Jeez... Marx. Commies, Capitalists, Banksters. People are actually still debating a difference?
energyecon wrote:
But that's because they have a socialist President and are printing too much money to prop up their failing economy unlike the United States who... oh... never mind.
EvilHenryPaulson (profile) wrote on Thu, 10/15/2009 - 1:39 pm
Anyone notice the 5 terrorist attacks in Pakistan in the last day? Pakistan reels after terrorist blitz - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
alybaba, any tie-in to Kerry-Lugar?
"It's cutting your wrists. What would be the unexpected negative outcome (ie. how could you do it 'wrong')? "
Some don't know that it's down, not across.
Much of Marxian theory makes sense...try putting it into the real world of oligarchy and criminal networks. The 'dictatorship of the proletariat' got stuck in that phase in Russia/Soviet Union.
Cinco-X wrote:
Yeah, and who's the dude that borrowed all that loot for the 600 ship navy?
yep, and one of the largest sources of US crude imports who is headed towards his own epic fail of unmet expectations...
merchants of fear wrote:
Regrettably, the idea of a "free market" has been corrupted by both the left and the right. I view it much like a village common. You can use it freely, but if you abuse it, you end up in the stocks-
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/15/2009 - 4:01 pm
Uh oh. We have deities "debating". It's NEVER good when two omnipotent beings debate.
True. They don't work well in groups, and rarely compromise.
NOTaREALmerican,
+1
merchants of fear wrote:
Or the "free market" in a world of Smart Amoral Scum-bags.
Why does the country still hate me and my president rob me, mommy?
The country has been drugged, and the President has been replaced by a clone, under the control of the evil wizards of Mordor. And I'm not really your mommy. Your mommy was a meth head and I get paid $2000 a month to put up with your shit, so STFU.
Cinco-X wrote:
Who makes the rules?
Nokia is at the event horizon.
Market share down to 35% from 41% one quarter ago. I think they had 60% market share not a few years ago
merchants of fear wrote:
That seems to be a legitimate practice in the MSM these days! Why not here
/snark
sm_landlord wrote:
Didn't your mother teach you that nursery rhyme? Something about "Down the street, not across the tracks, doh wah doh wah..."
What? Why are you all looking at me like that?
Well, off home people, enjoy the cornucopia of simultaneous debate topics going on in Hoocodanode this afternoon/evening.
Without understanding where Russia was at the advent of communism, there is little point in debating its merits. Economically, there is no question Russia was far superior under communism than under the Russia czars. When need only look to South America to see that democracy and capitalism isn't the aphrodisiac that it is often claimed to be.
Cinco-X wrote:
I thought is was the Smart Amoral Scum-bags. Are they on the left OR right?
The value of "value added" is inevitably subjective, but that doesn't mean intelligent analysis should be avoided in favor of an invisible hand.
Emancipating the slaves was an act of increasing freedom-- or government intervention restricting the right to own private property?
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/15/2009 - 4:09 pm
Cinco-X wrote:
the idea of a "free market" has been corrupted by both the left and the right
I thought is was the Smart Amoral Scum-bags. Are they on the left OR right?
Yes.
almost all of the time, the west coast offense worked (another then-innovation). the niners would have a significant lead, and would win the game. so, yes, you actually knew before the game started, because the script was good. i remember losing a bet with a gigantic spread against the bears in the playoffs in the last year or two of that era. the system still worked well a dozen years after it was introduced.
Cinco-X,
'end up in stocks' or the stockade. Medieval Stockade?
sm_landlord wrote:
That didn't work for me.
HollywoodHack wrote:
There's bears about playoffs too? How does this investment strategy go?
energyecon wrote:
If I'm not mistaken, the Jews aren't allowed to do that to other Jews, but it's perfectly acceptable when dealing with Gentiles and Samaritans. I could be wrong. As for the other:
Parable of the talents or minas - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Rob Dawg wrote:
Good lord man, are you some sort of T-800?
EDIT: Okay now really going home...
Not sure what(political economy) will work for sure but we have learned what doesn't work...over and over and over again!
merchants of fear wrote:
Until the problem of the Smart Amoral Scum-bags is addressed AND the problem of the peasants not being allowed to participate in the screwing, nothing can change.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
It sure looks like they dropped the ball, doesn't it? I heard their new strategy was making super low-cost phones to sell in the third world, abandoning the high end to other companies. Sounds like a bunch of recently-minted MBAs or workout specialists took over the company and hollowed it out.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Looks like a small price compared to today's BS. BTW, it's worth noting he didn't go out and buy 600 ships at list price. Many were pulled out of mothballs, and re-de-commissioned after his term was over. Finally, this has little to do with the effects of the dot.com boom/bust and the subsequent RE boom/bust. Which is what is pertinent here. Again, if you want ot go back far enough, there's always Johnson's Guns&Butter policy.
The 'invisible hand' in your pants isn't working if your pockets are empty or are being emptied. Neither is the 'visible hand' doing the same thing.
Maybe doomers shouldn't eat the

if the
comes from anywhere near an a-bomb facility:
A government contractor at Hanford, in south-central Washington State, just spent a week mapping radioactive rabbit feces with detectors mounted on a helicopter flying 50 feet over the desert scrub. An onboard computer used GPS technology to record each location so workers could return later to scoop up the droppings for disposal as low-level radioactive waste.
radioactive poo detectable at 50 ft away doesn't sound like the right meal to me. it isn't safe to step in sh*t anymore.
Cinco-X wrote:
Dude, that was Moral Hazard ridin' into town, woodin' ya say?
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
The village-
Cinco-X wrote:
The same one it takes to raise a child? Or the idiot?
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Yes-
Actually, it's the WHOLE thing! Wanna trace problems back? Wanna blame Greenspan? Who enabled Greenspan's easy credit fiasco?
I think you have the cause and effect backwards.
Imo, the well spring of easy money came from senseless U.S. credit policies, not Chinese savings. We created way too much credit (MZM grew ~ 80% faster than nominal GDP). The excess money started to flow to China. China then reinvested the money back in the U.S. So exactly how is that a glut of savings? It was a disgraceful credit expansion and failure to enforce regulations that caused this financial calamity.
Today's high end phones are the standard phones in emerging markets within 3 years. So it will be tough to compete at the low end of the lowest end markets where you need mega-volume to make any profit. Do you see intel giving up on high end chips because they're not as profitable at the time of introduction? No because they can ride what becomes a commodity for the next 6 years all the way down the price points
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/15/2009 - 4:14 pm
merchants of fear wrote:
Not sure what(political economy) will work for sure but we have learned what doesn't work...over and over and over again!
Until the problem of the Smart Amoral Scum-bags is addressed AND the problem of the peasants not being allowed to participate in the screwing, nothing can change.
Death, or a radical and sudden alteration of female reproductive strategies (which would accomplish the same goal, but in a delayed manner).
So, we have... Death.
NaRm,
Are the 'smart amoral scumbages' fleecing the 'born and bred dopes'?
merchants of fear wrote:
What ever the Pilgrims used. I think they were stocks, and the townsfolk would throw rotten fruit, etc. at the offenders.
Cinco-X wrote:
right, center and left. but it is not a bell-shaped curve. heavily skewed to the right, i'd bet.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
But STILL no political system that want to recognize it (other than the fascists - but they ADMIT they're the smart amoral scum-bags)
the peasants did participate - hence the housing bubble and subsequent meltdown. similarly, today's equity and corporate bond juicing by the Fed is designed for strictly political purposes, i.e., to calm the nerves of Joe 401K (while enabling yet another round of backdated-options looting by execs, of course).
merchants of fear wrote:
No, the nobility is fleecing the peasants. Like 10000 years of history show it will always be.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Oh they participate, just not the way you'd like
Cinco-X wrote:
You STILL need a political system to identify them (without deities, hopefully).
In the episode, Jesus is stated to have visited the Temple in Jerusalem, Herod's Temple, at which the courtyard is described as being filled with livestock and the tables of the money changers, who changed the standard Greek and Roman money for Jewish and Tyrian money, which were the only coinage that could be used in Temple ceremonies. According to the Gospels, Jesus took offense to this extorting profit from the people to hear the word of God.
Jesus and the money changers - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
.
Since we started with the money changers...
Cinco-X wrote:
If they did their wages wouldn't be falling. It's the AVERAGE peasants. The 68% that make society work.
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/15/2009 - 4:21 pm
No, the nobility is fleecing the peasants. Like 10000 years of history show it will always be.
Exactly. And it is not unreasonable to suggest that "evolution" wants it this way.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
The one HRC's book was in Africa, and the other is from......where'd you say you were from again?
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
No, I wouldn't disagree. The small D democrats might not like this answer tho. The people who believe in human progress.
Edit; DA FOUNDIN' FODDERS?
Cinco-X wrote:
Sacramento, you mean?
No because they can ride what becomes a commodity for the next 6 years all the way down the price points ...
And at the same time, they have to continually re-create the high end, and hope the world buys it.That's tech in a nutshell-- it's always been that way. The difference between Intel and Apple is that Apple works hard to sell the world on the greatness of their new stuff. Intel wouldn't know good marketing if it crept up and slapped them in the face. And here's another clue. Intel still thinks it's a hardware company. I kid you not. The hardware engineering mentality refuses to die.
So are we going to get blow-off top number 3,343,788 in QQQQ tomorrow?
scone wrote:
scone
In many ways, Intel is a hardware company. They could get more benefit out of it by working on other areas, but without the hardware to feed them those other areas just die on the vine. just my outsider's opinion, I know you're closer to the company than I
Cinco-X wrote:
Which was why Mad(e)off was such a shock to the Jewish community?
Marx though the history of 'class struggle' was important to know so we can learn from the Marxian approach.
Angry Saver wrote:
I don't; if we continually shipped dollars to China in return for goods, and there was no currency intervention on their part, they'd have a surplus of dollars, and the value of these dollars would decline. By buying up dollars, they "propped up" our currency enabling us to buy more, killing jobs here. These "senseless policies" would not have been possible without someone to continually buy debt.
badger, I expect you know Russia was not static in the years leading to 1917, nor were the years 1917-18 an experience anyone would have preferred to the preceding circumstances. I think the economic conditions - then as now - tell only a part of the story, and perhaps not the main part at that.
They could get more benefit out of it by working on other areas, but without the hardware to feed them those other areas just die on the vine.- EHP
That's not what I mean. Intel is a utility company. It's like the electric company used to be. The hardware aspect is slowly killing them.
JimPortlandOR wrote:
You would-
Marx would have been blown away at the 'deception' and 'profit' potential of financialization and derivativization.
"Intel still thinks it's a hardware company."
Some say that Intel cut a deal with Microsoft to stay out of the software business, if MS would cut off support for other CPU architectures. Remember NT used to be portable?
I remember Intel's compilers used to be much better than Microsoft's, back when I paid attention to stuff like that.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
This really shouldn't be that hard:
New England town - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Cinco-X wrote:
The political type 1's & 2's will always hate the other's smart amoral scum-bags but worship their own.
energyecon wrote:
As I said; "in the temple".
merchants of fear wrote:
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
You're not reading it correctly-
How many were sentenced to death after LA riots? China is a different place, far removed in so many ways. We cannot compete with China, not until we can deal with miscreants in a similar way. The wall street greed and anarchy/anything goes case in point.