Philly Fed Index, NY Fed Survey and Misc
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CalculatedRisk on Thu, 10/15/2009 - 7:27am (202 comments)
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Re: Home buying frenzy
Obviously what we need is more supply. I assume the homebuilders are getting busy to take advantage of the surge in demand.
An assumption on your part. There are still parents out there that think 30k is not unreasonable for their children to not live with them. For me, I don't think my parents would let me move back in with them just to save 10k/yr on rent & utilities. Assumptions are what they are, and in my market, this couple would be stupid to drop that kind of money on a house. In NoVA, that range is different.
"Citigroup said Wednesday that it earned $101 million between July and September, thanks to smaller reported losses on its massive holdings of toxic loans and investments. "
I left my BS detector in my other suit. Anybody care to comment?
Alan Greenspan finding religion late in life.
Greenspan Says U.S. Should Consider Breaking Up Large Banks - Bloomberg.com
Yagij,
Only mild snark on my part. It could be worth a lot of money to the parents or the kids not to have to live together. Still, there are a surprising number of people who actually like their parents who feel it would be such a black mark on their record to live there for a while that they will do almost anything to avoid it, like getting actual blackmarks on their record (BK, FICO punishment).
They stopped adding to reserves. With the FDIC guarantee of bank debt going away October 31, it will be interesting to see if Citi can raise additional debt.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
What do people recommend for USD folks? I've looked into mutual funds that cover commodities (companies) and closed funds that track hard currencies. Would these options be a better bet even though they are still priced in USDs?
From the Sacramento Bee: California Senate approves $10,000 tax credit for new-home buyers (ht Brad)
Lookee here, a State that's basically broke granting inefficient tax credits. Figures!
Basel Too (profile) wrote on Thu, 10/15/2009 - 10:32 am replyIgnore userAlan Greenspan finding religion late in life.
Greenspan Says U.S. Should Consider Breaking Up Large Banks - Bloomberg.com
For a second, I thought maybe the Scientologists had gotten to him.
From the Sacramento Bee: California Senate approves $10,000 tax credit for new-home buyers
If and when the Federal First time buyers credit gets renewed to 15k I will have no choice but to move off the sidelines and buy a new house. 10k from the state and 15k from uncle sugar? What's not to like about moral hazzard?
California tax credit? Beggars cannot be gifters, can we?
We can expect MFG to remain about 20-25% below peak levels for the medium term.
3Q MFG backlogs & bookings get reported over next 3 weeks. This will validate the 'sentiment' numbers reported by the Fed today. Sentiment is fine - but PO's are reality.
Don't Get Massacred !
gudovac1941.blogspot.com
*Often in the middle of the night, while his wife sleeps beside him, John Sheridan picks up his iPhone from the nightstand and shakes the device like it was a conductor's wand on fire. Sometimes he goes on like this for more than an hour at a time. There's a point to this midnight madness, though.
**Sheridan is a 53-year-old real-estate agent in Florida***
hmm
The hot new musical instrument: Your smartphone - CNN.com
some investor guy wrote:
Well, if they reported fewer losses, then their numbers should look better. But what happens when they finally DO report those losses?
some investor guy wrote:
I blame (western?) women's nesting nature for that situation. I've dated gals that had no problem wanting me to meet the folks, but if I told them we were going back to my parents' place to watch a movie, I'm sure that date would end quickly...
SNAFU wrote:
gifters or grifters?
New ads!- Street Cop Millionaire - 12 part real estate investing mini-course - gotta click on that one!
refreshed and now I have an ad for an NRE Easy Rupee Acocunt.
Terry wrote:
Guess what!? My dream home is just a few clicks away
Cinco-X wrote:
In sunny Detroit, Michigan! **
** - Must relocate to Detroit and survive a winter before receiving your prize.
Chicago area guy charged with ponzi scheme:
Elk Grove Village man accused of stealing millions from investors in Ponzi scheme - Chicago Tribune
Not surprising to see more of these in the news.
iPhone from the nightstand
"There's an App for that!".
Has Maria been alerted?
jturner wrote:
To paraphrase Commodore Perry, we have only just begun to uncover the ponzi schemes.
Eric wrote:
Not that kind of music is being played, funny guy!
California, land of fruits and nuts reauthorizes tax credit to spend the $30 million left over. They can't give the money away, I think next step will be to force the credit on the unwilling. If you don't take it you will be ushered into the overcrowded prison system.
What do people recommend for USD folks? - Y
I like corporate and international bond funds, including emerging markets. I'm hot for Brazil and Australia, but my heart belongs to PimpCo...
Had to look that word up; swindling indeed, from future generations and moral hazard to boot. The state should not be in the business of pushing RE.
scone wrote:
Are they priced in USDs? e.g. If the USD loses 50% of its value, is that loss reflected in the share price and dividends of those funds?
The $30M will be gone in less than a month.
yagij (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/15/2009 - 10:36 am
I blame (western?) women's nesting nature for that situation. I've dated gals that had no problem wanting me to meet the folks, but if I told them we were going back to my parents' place to watch a movie, I'm sure that date would end quickly...
LOL. I won't dispute a "nesting nature" of some sort, but most of what you described is far more related to cultural expectations and learned behavior plus peer pressure than anything instinctual. "Nesting" is an excuse used to market a lifestyle - survivability of the species / genetic code does not depend on whether a house has granite countertops or whether one drives a BMW 325i or a Ford Taurus. Don't blame nature for problems we created.
....that's good..........that's what "they" want you to do.........nothing better than a pliable, eager to please populace!
Are they priced in USDs? e.g. If the USD loses 50% of its value, is that loss reflected in the share price and dividends of those funds? - Y
Yes, and yes. But "loss" is relative. If you have everything here, you lose it all. And then again, losing a lot of Zimbabwe dollars isn't the same as losing real money. Srsly.
Tulips in October (to accompany the earliest ever snow in the Columbia Gorge)!
Is the mulberry bush in shape for us all to join hands and dance around it in joy?
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
I don't dispute it, but I gotta play by the rules that are forced upon me or I get to enjoy life as an unofficial monk. I did state (Western) 'cause I know it isn't as big of a deal in Japanese culture. Besides, how else can I get that 30 yo cutie in Accounting to go out with me if I have to explain why Mom is in her robe? Eh, smart guy?
Black Star Ranch (profile) wrote on Thu, 10/15/2009 - 10:46 am
"If and when the Federal First time buyers credit gets renewed to 15k I will have no choice but to move off the sidelines and buy a new house."
....that's good..........that's what "they" want you to do.........nothing better than a pliable, attentive populace!
Rational economic decisions are also moral choices in the Brave New World!
OT previous thread, that couple took a 2-1 buydown. The rate is 2% below note rate the 1st year, 1% below the 2nd and then fixed for years 3-30. Up until 2003, FHA allowed the customer to qualify at the 1st years rate. The cost of the 2-1 buydown is approx 2.25% of the loan amount. I am sure it was paid for by the sellers. FHA allows the seller to pay up to 6% of the sales price in concessions. They could have used that money to have a permanent rate of 4.875 to 5% depends on how long they keep the loan as to which way is best.
Also, the USDA still does 100% financing if home is in rural area(maps are 5-6 years old so lots of McMansions qualify) and you can roll in closing costs up to 2% as long as home appraises high enough. You also have VA loans still offering 100% financing and most states have programs set up for 100% financing through their respective state housing agencies.
scone wrote:
Making sure. Thanks for the reply. Definitely sounds like I should enjoy some currency diversity and enjoy some PM/non-denominated assets with what I have. Definitely not playing index funds or large equity mutual funds at this time.
.
Go, USD, Go!
Dang, I got pigged right before posting on the last thread.
The places that go on the auction block for $1000 and fail to sell do so because the house is a liability and is nowhere near transportation. If either of those things don't apply it will sell.
Property taxes are very reasonable here, especially in the crappy hoods where parents don't demand much from the local schools. And there are no HOAs on houses around here, only on townhomes and condos.
Winter isn't even that bad here. The people that have problems are grown men that are too macho to wear a scarf. That isn't to say that I like winter. It sucks here. It's just not really all that bad if you dress yourself for the conditions.
Actually, you're screwed no matter what you do, If I send money to my SIL in Australia tomorrow, and ask her to buy gold and keep it for me, I get whacked by the exchange rate. If I keep it in an account, even if it's post-tax money, Uncle Sam might try to tax the interest, or even grab the cash, given sufficient desperation. And at some point, you could have trouble getting gold out of the USA.
yagij (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/15/2009 - 10:47 am
I don't dispute it, but I gotta play by the rules that are forced upon me or I get to enjoy life as an unofficial monk. I did state (Western) 'cause I know it isn't as big of a deal in Japanese culture. Besides, how else can I get that 30 yo cutie in Accounting to go out with me if I have to explain why Mom is in her robe? Eh, smart guy?
Touche! Yes, it's the rules that are broken but it worked so well for professional sports and Wall*Street, I can't see it having anything but a net gain to society. Gotta love arms races and the treadmills they inspire us to mount.
scone wrote:
I think drug mules figured out the problem with smuggling into and out of the US. Just saying...
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
...
...?
...!!!!
Bravo, brave Commentariat!
"11:44a Google expected to post gains after the bell"
HAHA!! Mindless pump because the DOW fell 10 points below 10K... Useless Shills!
scone - did I ever tell you I have relatives in Australia too?
yagij (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/15/2009 - 10:52 am
they inspire us to mount.
...
...?
...!!!!
Bravo, brave Commentariat!
Nothing like a good double entendre to start the day out right.
Definitely not playing index funds or large equity mutual funds at this time. - Y
Depends. A fund that's all about multinationals with most of their business overseas in growing markets might not be too bad at all. IMO that's one reason the tech stocks are doing o.k. right now. Another thing is dividends. Multinationals paying dividends that you reinvest are the bomb. Doug Short has some good stuff on that. And dividend stocks tend to be a little less volatile, too. They are boring, and that's good. IMO.
yagij wrote:
If you put it there, won't you have issues setting off the metal detectors?
scone - did I ever tell you I have relatives in Australia too? - O
No, indeedy! It's a finite oblique planetoid, after all!
scone wrote:
I've thought about looking into income funds and stocks that do pay dividends. That was where my investment thoughts were originally back in June, but then I started debating income v. inflation v. USD devaluation so I took a wait-and-see approach to see if TPTB can keep this thing going through October... then December... then February. I may give up by then and get out of the MMF just because of its disappeared safety net. So many choices and so little cash.
.
Thanks again for responding, scone.
Make into jewelery and that is ok, for in/out of the US? The ethnic group that is the largest consumers of gold, does this routinely, in my observation.
This is funny:
Just 58% Now See A Home As A Family’s Best Investment
Apparently, 58% of people haven't looked at the RE market lately-
Cinco-X wrote:
Cinco-X wrote:
I think it will be the hiker from ND to Canada or NM to Mexico, not flying from Atlanta to Ottawa or Mexico City. If you are concerned about smuggling banned substances, I think you avoid the obvious routes of entry and exit.
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 10/15/2009 - 11:45 am edit reply Calpers rocked by ‘pay to play’
Posted by Gwen Robinson on Oct 15 04:42.
Calpers, the largest US public pension fund, revealed that a former board member had reaped $50m in fees for arranging investments that could saddle state taxpayers with big losses, reports the WSJ. The disclosure deepens concerns that alleged conflicts of interest are undermining US state retirement funds. Calpers said it is launching a “special review” into money managers’ payments to firms including Arvco Financial Ventures, headed by Al Villalobos, who served on Calpers’ board 1993-95.
Mr. Villalobos was a Deputy Mayor, a staunch republican supporter, and it sounds like he has a gambling problem.
Aurora Capital Group was one of them. Supposedly has 2.2 billion under management - the portfolio looks "interesting.
Apollo Investment Corporation
The other is Apollo. Their portfolio is even more "Interesting."
Make into jewelery and that is ok, for in/out of the US? - S
Yes, Indian ladies do that, 24k gold. However, customs is wise to that shit and if you come out sportin' like a hip hop artist, they take a dim view...
Mike in Long Island wrote:
Ouch!
Take it to Florida and buy any of the thousands of crappy sailboats for sale down there. Take the keel off, cut out some of the lead, put the gold in and put some of the lead back on top. Put the keel back on and sail the 50 miles from Miami to the Bahamas when you get a weather window such that the gulf stream is super calm. If you have no idea how to navigate, follow any of the dozens of other sailboats that will make the crossing every single time there is a good weather window.
scone wrote:
My sister-in-law got bagged for wearing 7 baht gold (24k) chains back from Thailand. And that was about 15 years ago. I'm sure it's worse now.
If one was to have say, 199 eagles in their carry-on luggage on board a big old jetliner, and was headed to a country with no import restrictions on #79 coming in, what laws would they have broken, exactly?
Al Villalobos was a "Placement Agent." Not the only one in that line of work either. It looks like CALPERS, and others, this was common.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
"58% of people haven't looked at the RE market lately"
A lot of families have no other investment.
A house is one of the few investments which amateurs are able to buy with 20 to 1 leverage.
The dollar is hammerin' the yen- I wonder why?
I understand why gold ownership and transport were restricted in the past, but why would the government care about import/export controls on gold in the future? What is the scenario? Thanks.
Al Villalobos was also involved with "brokering" deals to NY pension funds with the help of the NY Comptroller....
Cinco-X wrote:
You are holding the hammer on the wrong end, genius. The Yen is hammering USD.
.
I know it is hard for us Yankees to comprehend being the bottom of a relationship, but it is a position that we will have to adjust to with our cellmate Yoshimoto. Ignore his tattoos...
Gee scone, simple one actually, just buy some perth mint certificates, transfer them to sil, have her cash them in and done. Or even more simple, go down to coin store, buy gold sovereigns, put in box with some nice sweaters from new hampshire, and fedex them to australia.
You don't get whacked by an exchange rate if you use a bank, the little change shops are mostly tourist worthless- and change at least 5 grand.
Scone, uncle sam isn't going to grab your cash- not when they can push a button and print more.
The biggest problem going forward is Broward style dropping out of the system leading to insufficient workforce to maintain the lifestyle.
Of course, since pay has been terrible forever, I think capital is about to experience what labor has had for the last 40 years, a long cold winter.
By the time we get done with this, we will look just like england did before Thatcher, complete with a dole.
Someday this war's gonna end...
I do love sailboats, but that seems kind of elaborate. How about buying 6 - 12 really good diamonds, set in platinum, as a parure of bracelet, ring, and necklace. That ought to pass, it wouldn't be that big and you could say it was costume jewelry.
Cinco-X wrote:
You should suspect the giant vampire squid that is Glodman Sucks, since they control the world.
some investor guy wrote:
Anytime you use more than 5X leverage on those trades it's not such a good idea-
499 Double Eagles, if you'd prefer.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Wouldn't that make it 998 eagles?
nova, playing with taxpayer-guaranteed OPM is good work, if you can get it.
yagij wrote:
89 yen bought a dollar yesterday. Today it takes 90. Which end of the hammer do you use?
"Wouldn't that make it 998 eagles?"
Depends on your syntax.
You can get away with it if you have numismatic immunity.
Gee scone, simple one actually, just buy some perth mint certificates, transfer them to sil, have her cash them in and done. - CAM
I had thought of that, but I was looking for something "traceless." As for the gummit taking cash, I meant valuable stuff, not Zimbabwe dollars. Not that I really think we will get to the point of confiscation of gold, but it has been known to happen. At some point "printing money" does not convince the creditors any more.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Is there a vaccine for that?
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
May be Pakistan's days of 'pretend' the problem does not exist', are over. They had to face up sooner or later. I still think that Pakistan will disintegrate into smaller entities, in not so distant future.
If you were CALPERS and in the right position. You would not churn the investments just so former board members could make 1% for brokering them? Plus a kickback probably from who ever they were placed with?
Or any pension fund for that matter.
At 25B under management, well, you could make some money that way. Then if they were invested in "Plastics" companies that were basically shells you could make even more...
Let's see.
got my internet expl "ad" refreshed now no ad.
Why is everyone making transferring capital so difficult right now?
Just transfer it now. Waiting until barriers arise is stupid- if you want to do it, then do it.
There is not enough gold in America to matter- and if the Fed wanted it, all they would have to do is drive the price up, have the investment banks buy it to make good on their huge shorts, and take delivery.
You think all of those folks shipping gold to Kitco for $'s are not effective?
Why bother with primitive methods like the 1930s? Life is so much more subtle and sophisticated these days.
What I should be doing is tradeouts with the big coin shops to swap bags of coins and search them for valuable coins.
Once again, so much will be going into the melt pots that should be saved.
Someday this war's gonna end...
I'm sitting here reflecting on the thought that 'freedom' sure means lots of things when it comes to moving money/assets across US borders. By current logic, concentration camp inmates were free as long as they just let the vampire squid sit on their face.
Damn. Have a company that makes glue. Get CALPERs to invest a billion. Make money on stock. Sell more stock. Suck in more money because it has to be safe if CALPERs is in it. Never make glue but make profits for awhile...
"What I should be doing is tradeouts with the big coin shops to swap bags of coins and search them for valuable coins.
I've got a Roman coin of the late republic, dated 44 BC. Got a good deal on it too.
GOLDMAN earnings - more of the same b.s.:
What you might have missed in all of the hoopla in the media is that housing foreclosures hit a new record high in the third quarter, the Philly Fed Index plunged 21% from the September reading (the unemployment component fell from 14.3 to -6.8) and credit card charge-offs at Capital One, the poster-child of subprime credit card lending, soared in September.
Did JPM and GS really earn all the money, or was simply shifted from taxpayers to the bankers? Barack, what do you have to say about this, without a teleprompter or help from Rahm Emanuel?
The Golden Truth: Regarding Goldman Sachs Earnings "Strong":
New government said it would allow yen to float--but now realize that would kill exports. Basically, they have to buy USD--their change in approach really is same old/same old---the whole world is in the same boat until the next major fiasco.
Mel wrote:
That makes sense. Some of the other Asian tigers were doing that last week as well, IIRC.
Chill, Citizen! Speaking for myself, I'm engaging in TEOTWAWKI fantasy, where the jackboots smash down your door and snatch the hoard of coins from under the matress. I'm not being really serious here. If I were that paranoid, I wouldn't be discussing my plans on the web...
What makes it even sadder is all the little pension funds that followed what CALPERS did. If they invested in X - then so did Little County Teachers Pension Fund. Which in turn fueled the shell companies the shills were touting and the trash the IB's were dumping.
This is probably - nationally - bigger than Madoff.
Harrods to sell gold bullion for first time
Harrods to sell gold bullion for first time - Telegraph
Basel Too wrote:
If you want less gov't intervention & regulation of markets then we better have an ass kick aggressive federal anti-trust dept. - markets only work when there are no TPTF participants and in fact ALL participants are small enough so that no one participant can manipulate the market. Ya I'm looking at you GS...
Smuggling glod?
Silly doomers
Smuggle large carat precious stones, it's much easier/economical that way.
Here's what happening:
Talked to a friend for an hour yesterday, and he's only had a street-front bullion retail location for over 30 years, so he's seen a few things...
He told me that he has never seen it as frantic as it has been lately, and he was around for the big 79-80 fireworks show.
On one side of the coin, you've got people motivated by the record prices that always bring a number of sellers out of the woodwork, and on the other side, he says the look in people's faces, is one of utter desperation, even though the check might be for xx,xxx or xxx,xxx, it doesn't matter, he says they are well and truly spooked and want out of dollars. Wealthy folks that pay in full for real money.
nova.
much bigger, and unfortunately, involves lots of PE stakes and not common equity, which means the fund can value at mark-to-fantasy prices for solvency purposes. the endowment funds are in the same boat. earlier this month, stanford university wised up to the PE shell game and is liquidating about $1B in the PE stakes.
"they are well and truly spooked and want out of dollars."
No guarantee that they won't lose out.
What troubles me about these reported upticks is that, as I do business, I just don't see any upticks in real life. I see no business improvements; I still see a downward slide in activity.
Avooch wrote:
Not necessarily - I'm seeing a lot of last minute 'drop in' orders that usually would be captured in backlog & LTA PO records. What it tells me is the activity is is up BUT there is no conviction it will last [so they don't schedule out farther than the one time drop ins].
scone wrote:
If I were that paranoid, I wouldn't be discussing my plans on the web...
Ohhhh, okay. Hey nova, take her name off the list again.
pavel,
Nothing is guaranteed in life, with the possible exception being AIG.
dryfly wrote:
What's your take on the possibility of pre-positioning as insurance against supply line disruptions and/or throwing the downstream a lifeline?
Why do I think all these people that are buying into Gold now are going to feel a whole lot like people that bought houses in 2006 or Dot Com stocks in 2000?
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
From street-fronts, to Harrods, to Walmart.
I'm waiting for the small-amount glod bits, covered in chocolate, so I can sh*t gold like Glodman Sachs does.
i just got done reading the last two threads so my comment is tardy
but, i cant get over the sense that seasonal adjustments and moving averages are masking the trend
looking back over the department of labor data for initial claims unemployment insurance
non seasonally adjusted numbers
for the past 6 weeks
spet 5 +3k additional claims
sept 12 -58k
sept 19 +21k
sept 26 +5k
oct 3 +3k
oct 10 +51k
this while people are falling off the back end of the data collection
as benefits expire
ok i agree im not so smart...
but, whats to celebrate?
....Easy-Peasey, scone.........buy physical gold, no receipt, fly it into Vegas, contact me and I'll show you where to bury it in the desert....
the bottom of a relationship....
Ah c'mon. I am sure there are enough adventurous 'mericans out there to prove that false. heehee. It is like that discussion about Alpha males and Beta males. Cant have alphas without the betas around, cant have tops without bottoms. Besides, the tops tend to 'get topped fromt the bottom' . Also it is alot easier and less work for same amount of joy, ahem, to be the bottom.
Besides, we all just need to get along and take turns!! hahahaha sorry guys, silly day today.
"pavel,
Nothing is guaranteed in life, with the possible exception being AIG. "
JD, as long as the desperate buyers understand that they be left holding a bag made of gold. Like certain home buyers are left holding a bag made of tyvek.
One more bank going down the long slippery path to oblivion.
"Why do I think all these people that are buying into Gold now are going to feel a whole lot like people that bought houses in 2006 or Dot Com stocks in 2000?"
Yes, they might.
And wipe your ass with Greenbacks.
Pavel, one of the problems with holding dollars over a long term horizon is the background level of inflation.
Now, with the asset inflation genie sloshing around money like a drunken sailor, folks with dollars are scared because they might buy nothing next.
If the dollar fails, or should I say when, gold and silver will form the basis of the next currency, at least temporarily. The peasant fear you see is real- and most likely justified over the short term. That is the desire to transfer wealth over into the next monetary scheme.
The common folks have next to nothing, so they don't count.
Pavel, I suggest you consider the dollar the functional equivalent of a ruble- now how much is the Gorbachev era currency worth today?
What you see is the slow realization that the problems we are building may be fatal to the current system, and the folks on top of the current system want to carry forward their wealth to the next. What lasts when money fails? Property, some companies, knowledge, and commodities.
So, when that happens, the smart folks realize it, and capitalize on it. I can't really fault the peasant mentality of some folks here- after all the history of France and Germany shows the monetary system can't be fully trusted.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Why do I think all these people that are buying into Gold now are going to feel a whole lot like people that bought houses in 2006 or Dot Com stocks in 2000? - Ck
Investments have fashions and fads. This is a really funny take on the gold pitchmen and their marks: Asia Times Online :: Asian news and current affairs
However, full disclosure, I bought GOLDX to take advantage of the frenzy and it's been doing pretty well lately.
Once again I find property tax and government excess spending are mark to wishing. Last property I bought has been taxed at $58K, bought for $31,500. County excepted price discovery is the new tax assessment. Makes one wonder how many go years with crooked assessments. Theft by taxes.
I'll show you where to bury it in the desert....
Why does that remind me of Treasure of the Sierra Madre?
Why do I think all these people that are buying into Gold now are going to feel a whole lot like people that bought houses in 2006 or Dot Com stocks in 2000?
Some of them are going to feel proud that they own genuine 24carrat GOLD looking coins. By now there must be a place selling these.
CK,
It's a weird deal when you've got Rush, Sean and Glenn pimping Mr. T starter-kits, but like a broken clock, even fools accidentally get it right some times.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Definitely happening in some cases. Especially considering a lot of the supply chain is blowing up [still]... and will continue to blow up well into the 'recovery'.
Let's see
A pile of worthless Stocks
A pile of Worthless dollars
A pile of Gold.
I'll take the gold.
And your toothpick built tinder box that you think is worth Hundreds of thousands of dollars...keep it. It's worthless. My parent bought thier first home back in the late 70's
4 bedroom home all the trimmings for.....$18,000.
Last time I checked, shoving people into mortgages wasn't a good idea.
"Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose"
Do the wealthy glod buyers think they are buying freedom?
What I point out is that the peasant mentality is alive and well, but sometimes, the peasants are right.
Gold will fall in price when we finally have our awful Volcker reset moment, but until then the fear will continue to rise, and not just our fear.
That article points out the pretorians steaming over the horizon to save the arab rulers bacon, but if the ships are mothballed due to the dollar falling, well, gold in Switzerland will fund a retirement that Tbonds may fail to do.
As our international overstretch becomes more and more apparent, and our domestic economy hangs in tatters, it is difficult to call this another bubble until the numeraire is finally stable. Otherwise, it begins to look prudent.
Someday this war's gonna end...
As someone that did buy tech stocks in 2000 and a house in 2006 (although that was assuming a mortgage for a home that belonged to Mom when she died) I generally look at myself as an indicator of what NOT to buy. I'm thinking of buying Gold...Take that how you will
bets on when dx breaks below 75? 72?
Comrade Kristina wrote:
a glod bubble?
a fundraiser. It may close permanently if it doesn't get enough money.
And yet we can get a new stadium.
And I checked the file on my too good to be true case and it's true.
Plaintiff only bid 24,200 on its 175K (including interest) debt and
a vulture bid 24,3 and bidding stopped. Plainfiff could have cut the
debt to 100k a while ago, and maybe the guy would have paid!!
Lenders are imbeciles.
There will be a special tenth circle of Hell reserved for top executives of CapitalOne. Face-sucking vampire squids on the poor and weak.
I bought gold in the 700s and am thinking of buying more.
Do I cancell you out Kristina?
What''s the tone at the bar lately?
Hmmm one would think there wouldn't be much room left there once GS execs arrive.
There's a kind of vodka which has gold flakes floating around in it.
One of the big problems with the current situation is that it reminds me far more of the EARLY 70's, after the 73-74 crisis, gold fell quite a bit, as everyone thought we were saved. Alas, that proved not to be the case.
Look at this call: Jesse's Café Américain
Dollar to 50 yen on BLOOMBERG?
Dollar to end reserve currency status?
Folks, this is literally the end of the world as we have known it. To argue otherwise is to fail the deep background understanding of the foundations of the modern american economy.
Now is this going to go Nova style?
Most likely not.
On the other hand, disruptions will be extreme.
This may also take longer than we think to happen.
Years.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Do we have a source on the Sterling Financial Corporation post?
scone is on the **multiple agency **list. It's too late to turn back now....
Comrade Kristina wrote:
HA!! Too funny. Take heart. I know a similar person I use as a "bench mark". I'm lucky, I'm constantly petrified with fear. I've got 1/20th in gold stocks, 3/20 ths in PrudentBear, and the rest in short-term treasuries. I know (intellectually) that I should be 19/20 ths in something other than USD (treasuries) but 11/20ths is in 401k's so I can only have 5/20 ths left to "control". This peasant is watching the headlights getting closer and closer.
Awful. I posted on the last thread. The night shifts are non existent. Last Saturday my coworker rang 95 bucks on Saturday night. My last three Wed nights have been as follows: 70,95,120. Normal Wed is about 250-300 and a normal Sat night is 300-500. Days are holding up (luckily 3 of my 4 shifts are days) but are off about 30%. Civil war is a popular topic with the patrons and I don't mean the last one.
I'm thinking of buying Gold..- CK
Well, read the article I cited first, pretty please, for scone? Anyway, and just for the record, the gold thing makes no sense to me, 'cause if that particular TEOTWAWKI happens, you might not be able to get out of the USA fast enough. And there's no telling the other economies won't go down in flames, too.
I'm betting on the long slow slog scenario, where deflation takes hold and even the debt can't start up hyperinflation. Also 70 million boomers, few of whom have saved much. Then again, the problem with sending gold to Australia, and retiring there now, is the ridiculous cost of housing over there. They are still having a bubble, essentially.
I have those same thoughts scone. I am partially kidding about the Gold thing. It just seems that usually when I think it's a good idea to buy something it is about to crash.
That's not vodka; that's Goldschlager. It is 100 proof Cinnamon Schnapps.
Yummy!
It just seems that usually when I think it's a good idea to buy something it is about to crash. - CK
I'm sure you're doing better than that! Anyway, your home is your home, it was your parent's house. That's not a cold, rational investment, it's something more. Especially if you decide to spawn sprogs!
Comrade Kristina wrote:
Because you need an excuse for ignoring all the good advice on this board that said to get some gold.
shill wrote:
Sterling Financial Corporation of Spokane, Washington, Announces Agreement with Regulators
| Reuters
Rich what about Silber?
Must have the silber!!!!
Thank you Yalt!
There is accumulation going on in gold, and it will continue until the point that the world's smartest gold traders decide to take some profits.
The world's smartest gold traders include tens of millions of ordinary people in Asia, most of whom live on one-tenth or less what you live on. Most of their net worth is in gold or silver.
I think the price that will lure their wealth onto the "used gold" market is about $1,200. That's when I'll lighten up myself.
gold is insurance , or a hedge against the sinking of the USD
at the end of the year all insurance purchased but not "used"
leaves you with nothing but a pile of blank canceled checks and premiums paid
a year from now if you dont "cash in" on your gold "premiums"
they are still around for you to "bank on" the next year
i dont advocate people going whole hog wild "investing" in gold
(speculating really cause gold is not a live investment)
gold or silver , esp numismatic coins in IMHO are just one of several things to do to improve one's night sleep
just in case this whole mess goes wiemar, or zimbabwe or what ever
Although taking advice on serious investing from random people on internet chat sites and blogs is not a good idea on it's face. And this community, while frequently intelligent, helpful and amusing, tends to collect some of the most uber-bearish folks I have seen on any financial blog anywhere. Sometimes I even go over to Motley Fool just to get a quick snort of irrational exuberance. (Ducks and covers).
Nah, I wasn't buying anything. Surviving is my goal right now, not investing. I wish I had the money to buy Gold when it was suggested, unfortunately I opted for eggs and milk.
i just cancelled my wine membership. trying to cancel motley fool. doing my part to push those sentiment indicators higher!
Wait till the Chinese stop allowing for the export of gold , silver , and rare earth metal . Then prices will really run . Untill then I'm buying
scone wrote:
Yes, I agree.
There is insufficient Silber in the world to meet soaring demand.
You can neber have too much Silber.
I personally think the 3% annual destruction of the dollar is simply the financial "adjustment" of REAL Merican optimism.
Citizen AllenM wrote:
rich wrote:
Swine flu, or just a colb?
Comrade Kristina wrote:
I wish I had the money to buy Gold
Some of us don't have the ability (and therefore the need) to shelter a thousand bucks in something right now. I rather have my pittance invested in decent tools, or something I can use in the coming years,...I personally, would not be able to use gold as a medium of exchange; I've got no one to exchange it with.
I stand corrected!!!
Swine but don't tell anyone NRA...opps knock on the door.
I loves Silber....and cheap. Like many I do not care about price fluctuations I am a buyer. And no I do not have all my eggs in one basket.
Stand any way you wish just don't actually drink any of that stuff...It makes Jaegermeister seem like a sane choice.
I've gone the beans and rice route myself. At least I'll have food for awhile. We are both employed for the time being so that is a blessing in itself.
@ CK - How's the hubster's new job coming?
Cinco-X wrote:
You are being a bit unkind. It is confusing that Forex is expressed as:
Euro - USD
USD - JPY
Why the inconsistency ? I always have to remind myself that when Euro - USD increases the $ in weakening but when USD - JPY increases, the $ is strengthening. I know, the unit of measure is right there - but why not be consistant.
Sorry - pet peeve.
Jim
Never drank any of that stuff. Only even saw it once.
Back to werk again.
Cheers to that. I think after the (lol) Holidays I am going to put extreme effort into food accumulation. I have everything else pretty much in order. But the food storage thing is a must. I know, I know
sdtfs wrote:
Actually, nobody does. If it got to that, the thugs of the world would take all the passive humans - meaning the statistically average non-thuggish humans - gold. When gold is a physical currency for exchange, it's Mad-Max time. And not a movie mad max either, as there's no righteous mad-maxes to kick the asses of the thugs in real life. In real life, the liberals will discover just how evil humans really are.
Long story scone but last week the Union called him back (after a year layoff) and told him because he doesn't have enough apprenticeship "work" hours in he has to take the job offered. So...he had to quit the job he had to take a temporary job that is over an hour drive away from here. He is making more and they are getting OT right now but he is none too happy about the commute. Only a year and half left to go on his apprenticeship though so there is a light at the end of that particular tunnel.
And here in lies the Guns and Ammo arguments...sorry had to bring it up.
shill wrote:
Which is as bogus as the glod argument. The evil thugs win. Period. Unless you are an evil thug, your guns are useless.
While I agree with some of your sentiments I take issue with your jab at liberals. I am very liberal and I have no doubt evil exists in humans, none at all. I think you mean "pacifists", the two words are not interchangeable.
I've gone the beans and rice route myself. - CK
It's the bomb. Surprisingly good for you if you use brown rice and get some veggies in there. Put some peanut butter, cilantro, lime, and soy sauce in there and it's Thai on the cheap.
Edit: Damn. Carpenter's unions? Don't get me started. I had trouble with that myself, long ago. Best of luck to him, and you.
You can never get enough silver?
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_qLp3h0opUdI/SjYRbWK--dI/AAAAAAAAAXI/J3xWmFCbfMY/s1600-h/600Silver.gif
I learned yesterday that with the new adminstration, the Department of Labor's new slogan is 'Good Jobs for Everyone'.
Interesting, especially since it is often women who want to buy stuff, especially houses at market peak and that kind of thing. Can I say that? Not very PC I guess.
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Women are increasingly reining in spending and promising that their new frugality is here to stay -- a vow that, if followed, could throw a wrench into the economic recovery.
Women with children overwhelmingly told researchers in a recent Citi poll that their spending and savings habits have changed "forever." Though most surveyed were optimistic about the economy over the next year, women in every income category said they were curtailing purchases on major items as well as everyday needs.
"There's a lot of reset going on in terms of returning to the basics," said Lisa Caputo, chief executive of Citi's Women & Co., a financial-resource program aimed at women. "Women are looking at this recession in very personal ways."
Seventy-five percent of mothers, both single and married, said savings and spending habits will never go back to pre-recession levels, while 61% of women without children said that, as did 60% of men.
About 63% of women with children are holding off buying big-ticket items like a car compared with 50% of women without children and 52% of men.
Women across all sectors believe that their financial situations have deteriorated," Caputo said. "They are not going to be high-flying consumers with open pocketbooks."
Anyone here have any thoughts about thebreakout in Oil, closed above $75 yesterday, top of a long $65-$75 trading range and has popped above $77 today. Happening on a day when the dollar is bouncing back a bit, so not just a currency play. I suspect the move is for real, but if it gets much above $85 it will be like a gallonof roundup on the green shoots (and no they are not roundup ready)
Experience from the Soviet collapse would suggest that skills and social networks may be the most effective survival strategy for yourself and particularly family members if you do not happen to have a remote, small farm setup (say, 99% of the population or thereabouts)...
I took my p*** into the wind for the day.
Called my 2 senators and rep to say NO to extending/expanding the house credit. Frustating when you are dealing with 24 yo interns only thinking about tonite's happy hour. Though when I mentionned that I was thisss close to moving ALL my money out of $US there was a brief 'whaa...?' moment.
Umm ok I am an NRA Basic Pistol and Home Firearm Safety Certified Instructor here in Mass be happy to exchange who is the better shot me or the Evil Boggy man....I would put your money on me if I were a betting man. Just my Bias Opinion.
What happens to the dollar if oil goes up? Isn't oil priced in dollars?
Cinco-X wrote:
Late response, but when following the USD/JPY cross at these levels, it all depends on the BoJ and carry trade. Right now, I would see a movement of 89->90 being a conscious attempt at weakening the Yen, not a strengthening USD. If it was north of 115, I might look at it the other way.
Comrade Kristina wrote:
No, I meant liberals (Political Types #2) who think humanity is one big group hug. Many of us don't like people. And for good reasons (altho, yes, the "good reasons" are just our own BS reality). The inability of liberals (applied socialists) to understand that most humans are scum is as politically destructive as the conservatives (fascists) inability to understand the smartest amoral scum-bags (the BEST of the human scum) will always run their society.
Look on the Geithner side - trending upwards!
rb wrote:
hm. they must have read "Animal Farm" over the weekend.
black dog wrote:
How much money did you offer? Pointless to call a Fed politician without at least being able to "contribute" 10k.
Isn't oil priced in dollars?
dollars are priced in oil.
yagij wrote:
There's something systemically wrong (and profoundly dangerous) when two of the world's major economies have a 20%+ exchange rate variance.
dollars are priced in oil.
wow - that was a brain opener of a comment...
How much money did you offer? Pointless to call a Fed politician without at least being able to "contribute" 10k.
I know its pointless but it makes sleep easier at night.
There's a lot of people here thinking about buying gold. Which means to me that, soon, buying gold won't be a sound idea.
yes. what can you do with a dollar, anyway? i can really only think of two things: burn it or give it away. in the latter, you can give it away for STUFF (spend it) or for more dollars (invest it). what can you do with oil? well, there are too many uses for oil to list here.
dollars are priced in oil.
Along with everything else. Gets a bit circular, there.
Happiness is a worn gun, bang bang shoot shoot?
while there are many more times silver than gold in the earths crust
above ground there is less silver than gold
the ratio is about 7 to one if you just look at bullion
lots of silver above ground is used up for industrial applications...some of that is recoverable, much is lost
Silver vs. Gold
Ya I can see holding dollars as a valuable store of wealth...........not.
Even Real Estate is worthless, unless you own a farm and can produce something that people need or want IE: Growing food.
Social Security Administration says:
No COLA for you!!!
"Social Security Administration says:
No COLA for you!!!"
No scam there! Extra bonus for wall street and pay raises for public union workers?
Happiness is a worn gun, bang bang shoot shoot?
No Happiness is a gun with ammo, otherwise it's just a club. Besides that, why when someone mentions a gun people always assume Cowboys and Indians, or thugs, I mean has the Media really dumbed people down that much?...Ignorance is bliss
"Then again, the problem with sending gold to xxxxxxxx, and retiring there now, is the ridiculous cost of housing over there."
They have their own problems. If there are human beings there they have problems. They may not want to let you in permanently most places. And if they do you will still be an alien, maladapted socially, and in most cases linguistically. The life of an exile is not guaranteed to be satisfactory,
Then in a global economy, why should there be sanctuaries?
Social networks, friends and families.
shill wrote:
And perception is reality. Just life.
pavel wrote:
Surely the UK must be doing ok?
On one side of the coin, you've got people motivated by the record prices that always bring a number of sellers out of the woodwork, and on the other side, he says the look in people's faces, is one of utter desperation, even though the check might be for xx,xxx or xxx,xxx, it doesn't matter, he says they are well and truly spooked and want out of dollars. Wealthy folks that pay in full for real money.
So, when people invest in stock market manias or real estate manias, they're idiots, but when they're gold bugs, they're smart?