The key question is: Will claims continue to decline sharply, like following the recessions in the '70s and '80s, or will claims plateau for some time at an elevated level, as happened during the jobless recoveries in the early '90s and '00s?
There's a healthy supply of workers, but not jobs-the wages of fear.
Let's have a visit to my virtual $3 an hour world of jobs, shall we?
Rents plummet (although the values of homes stay up-but it's a moot point because they never trade hands, who could afford them?) in the USA, as not only has the minimum wage fallen, but so have all other wages.
A really good computer geek that knows his stuff commands $12 an hour, a doctor around $15.
Maybe I nees more coffee. How do just under 10 million people collect unemployment from 7.2 million job losses?
Continuing claims fell by 75,000 in the week ended Oct. 3 to 5.99 million, the fewest since March. The number of people who have used up their benefits and are now collecting extended payments increased to 3.8 million in the week ended Sept. 26 from 3.79 million the prior week.
The U.S. has lost 7.2 million jobs since the recession began
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest Level Since January - Bloomberg.com
The Chicago Transit Authority earlier this week proposed bus and rail service cuts as well as fare increases to close a $300 million gap. The agency will cut more than 1,000 union positions as well as 100 non-union administrative jobs, CTA President Richard Rodriguez said at a news conference on Oct. 12.
No COLA, reduced service, fare increase, wages obviously not to rise, but inflation is moderate. Maybe GS and JPM can throw big charity bashes with lap dances for their staff on private Chicago train trips. You know, for the good of the economy.
Anecdotal, natch....but my company has released/allowed to leave at least 20% of the force in 8 months and hasn't hired a single person as a replacement. I'd call that a jobless "recovery".
I'm like you. Trying to decipher the FedGov's "figgerin" is too tough for me......I think that's part of the plan - or I'm just old, tired, and done give-out......
Choice morsels: In all, FDIC-insured institutions have set aside just over $338 billion in provisions for loan losses during the past six quarters, an amount that is about four times larger than their provisions during the prior six quarter period. While banks and thrifts are now well along in the process of loss recognition and balance sheet repair, the process will continue well into next year, especially for commercial real estate (CRE).
On Troubled Banking List: As insured institutions work through their troubled assets, the list of "problem institutions" -- those rated CAMELS 4 or 5 -- will grow. Over a hundred institutions were added to the FDIC's "problem list" in the second quarter. The combined assets of the 416 banks and thrifts on the problem list now total almost $300 billion. However, the number of problem institutions is still well below the more than 1,400 identified in 1991, during the last banking crisis on both a nominal and a percentage basis. Institutions on the problem list are monitored closely, and most do not fail. Still, the rising number of problem institutions and the high number of failures reflect the challenges that FDIC-insured institutions continue to face.
On CRE: The deep recession, in combination with ongoing credit market disruptions for market-based CRE financing, has made this a particularly challenging environment for commercial real estate. The loss of more than 7 million jobs since the onset of the recession has reduced demand for office space and other CRE property types, leading to deterioration in fundamental factors such as rental rates and vacancy rates. Amid weak fundamentals, investors have been re-evaluating their required rate of return on commercial properties, leading to a sharp rise in "cap rates" and lower market valuations for commercial properties. Finally, the virtual shutdown of CMBS issuance in the wake of last year's financial crisis has made financing harder to obtain. Large volumes of CRE loans are scheduled to roll over in coming quarters, and falling property prices will make it more difficult for some borrowers to renew their financing.
On DIF Losses: Because the FDIC has many potential sources of cash, a negative fund balance does not affect the FDIC's ability to protect insured depositors or promptly resolve failed institutions. The negative fund balance reflects, in part, an increase in provisioning for anticipated failures. The FDIC projects that, over the period 2009 through 2013, the fund could incur approximately $100 billion in failure costs. The FDIC projects that most of these costs will occur in 2009 and 2010. In fact, well over half of this amount will already be reflected in the September 2009 fund balance. Assessment revenue is projected to be about $63 billion over this five-year period, which exceeds the remaining loss amount. The problem we are facing is one of timing. Losses are occurring in the near term and revenue is spread out into future years.
I'm curious how much Congress pressed her on prepaid assessments. I swear; you can't collect assessments against future deposits. (I admit it might seem reasonable ask banks to prepay on a quarterly-semiannually basis to ensure liquidity in the DIF).
Virtually nothing in the way of consumer goods were produced in Mainland China, for export to the USA in 1982, and the rest of the communist world slumbered financially to an extent that they were irrelevant in the scheme of things.
Twas a whole different ball of wax, way back when...
Looking at the local job board, 24 jobs were added in the past week. Of those, about 8 are truly bogus. Wisconsin does have a reputation for being late on the whole recession thing though.
Anecdotal, natch....but my company has released/allowed to leave at least 20% of the force in 8 months and hasn't hired a single person as a replacement. I'd call that a jobless "recovery"
I work for a Global American consumer goods company 28,000 employees and we had 20% headcount reduction in Europe and 10% in US. Since Jan 2009. We're now in profit but sales are down and any uptick is purely down to cost cutting.
The key question is: Will claims continue to decline sharply, like following the recessions in the '70s and '80s, or will claims plateau for some time at an elevated level, as happened during the jobless recoveries in the early '90s and '00s?
I know what my answer is.
CR wrote:
I thought, well sure, they've run out of people to lay off. But then he asked a real question I can't answer.
Having now considered it for 30 seconds, yes, claims will continue to fall off sharply. [Citation omitted.]
Now that we have Dow 10,000 unemployment is a useless statistic
Go about your business, Citizen
Manufacturing activity in the U.S. at highest level in 5 years; consumer prices up 0.2%
We have Manufacturing? where.
There's a healthy supply of workers, but not jobs-the wages of fear.
Let's have a visit to my virtual $3 an hour world of jobs, shall we?
Rents plummet (although the values of homes stay up-but it's a moot point because they never trade hands, who could afford them?) in the USA, as not only has the minimum wage fallen, but so have all other wages.
A really good computer geek that knows his stuff commands $12 an hour, a doctor around $15.
Maybe I nees more coffee. How do just under 10 million people collect unemployment from 7.2 million job losses?
Continuing claims fell by 75,000 in the week ended Oct. 3 to 5.99 million, the fewest since March. The number of people who have used up their benefits and are now collecting extended payments increased to 3.8 million in the week ended Sept. 26 from 3.79 million the prior week.
The U.S. has lost 7.2 million jobs since the recession began
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest Level Since January - Bloomberg.com
so, this still isn't as bad as 1982...
No COLA, reduced service, fare increase, wages obviously not to rise, but inflation is moderate. Maybe GS and JPM can throw big charity bashes with lap dances for their staff on private Chicago train trips. You know, for the good of the economy.
Anecdotal, natch....but my company has released/allowed to leave at least 20% of the force in 8 months and hasn't hired a single person as a replacement. I'd call that a jobless "recovery".
josap.......
I'm like you. Trying to decipher the FedGov's "figgerin" is too tough for me......I think that's part of the plan - or I'm just old, tired, and done give-out......
Doofus, I wouldn't call that a 'recovery' at all . . . and I don't think there will be a recovery as long as it remains 'jobless.'
Jobs and recovery go hand in hand.
Re: Terry previous thread on Bair's FDIC testimony
Terry,
That FDIC testimony is of interest to me.
Link here to her prepared remarks.
Choice morsels:
In all, FDIC-insured institutions have set aside just over $338 billion in provisions for loan losses during the past six quarters, an amount that is about four times larger than their provisions during the prior six quarter period. While banks and thrifts are now well along in the process of loss recognition and balance sheet repair, the process will continue well into next year, especially for commercial real estate (CRE).
On Troubled Banking List:
As insured institutions work through their troubled assets, the list of "problem institutions" -- those rated CAMELS 4 or 5 -- will grow. Over a hundred institutions were added to the FDIC's "problem list" in the second quarter. The combined assets of the 416 banks and thrifts on the problem list now total almost $300 billion. However, the number of problem institutions is still well below the more than 1,400 identified in 1991, during the last banking crisis on both a nominal and a percentage basis. Institutions on the problem list are monitored closely, and most do not fail. Still, the rising number of problem institutions and the high number of failures reflect the challenges that FDIC-insured institutions continue to face.
On CRE:
The deep recession, in combination with ongoing credit market disruptions for market-based CRE financing, has made this a particularly challenging environment for commercial real estate. The loss of more than 7 million jobs since the onset of the recession has reduced demand for office space and other CRE property types, leading to deterioration in fundamental factors such as rental rates and vacancy rates. Amid weak fundamentals, investors have been re-evaluating their required rate of return on commercial properties, leading to a sharp rise in "cap rates" and lower market valuations for commercial properties. Finally, the virtual shutdown of CMBS issuance in the wake of last year's financial crisis has made financing harder to obtain. Large volumes of CRE loans are scheduled to roll over in coming quarters, and falling property prices will make it more difficult for some borrowers to renew their financing.
On DIF Losses:
Because the FDIC has many potential sources of cash, a negative fund balance does not affect the FDIC's ability to protect insured depositors or promptly resolve failed institutions. The negative fund balance reflects, in part, an increase in provisioning for anticipated failures. The FDIC projects that, over the period 2009 through 2013, the fund could incur approximately $100 billion in failure costs. The FDIC projects that most of these costs will occur in 2009 and 2010. In fact, well over half of this amount will already be reflected in the September 2009 fund balance. Assessment revenue is projected to be about $63 billion over this five-year period, which exceeds the remaining loss amount. The problem we are facing is one of timing. Losses are occurring in the near term and revenue is spread out into future years.
I'm curious how much Congress pressed her on prepaid assessments. I swear; you can't collect assessments against future deposits. (I admit it might seem reasonable ask banks to prepay on a quarterly-semiannually basis to ensure liquidity in the DIF).
Virtually nothing in the way of consumer goods were produced in Mainland China, for export to the USA in 1982, and the rest of the communist world slumbered financially to an extent that they were irrelevant in the scheme of things.
Twas a whole different ball of wax, way back when...
That's why I put "recovery" in quotes. Cynical effect and all that......
Doofus wrote:
Sorry, I guess I'm too literal this morning.
Well, off to the salt mine early today. Got to make up for four days lost to whatever it was.
Have a good day, folks, and do yourselves a favor: stay away from the stock market.
Looking at the local job board, 24 jobs were added in the past week. Of those, about 8 are truly bogus. Wisconsin does have a reputation for being late on the whole recession thing though.
So the price of used autos and trucks played a big part in the unexpectedly high core CPI? Great job C4C!
Consumer Price Index Summary
%Change Mar 09 through Sep 09 and cumulative
Used cars and trucks.... -1.7 -.1 1.0 .9 .0 1.9 1.6 -2.7
Finding jobs in the Central Valley is pretty tough, I saw a mickey d's that was offering interns 39 hours a week, if they'll work for free...
fast-food apprenticeships
Well that's a definite trend. But we're still higher than at any point since 1983.
An the question now is at what cost does improvement come?
This looks like a 2003 style bubble recovery except where the underlying conditions and financial insanity are much worse.
Black Star Ranch wrote:
and that's your best feature
well thank you, volker!
The only thing that went down was the seasonal adjustment. Claims went up 50,000, NSA which was a total JOLT compared to last year.
Doofus wrote:
I work for a Global American consumer goods company 28,000 employees and we had 20% headcount reduction in Europe and 10% in US. Since Jan 2009. We're now in profit but sales are down and any uptick is purely down to cost cutting.