I think the market is totally insane, I know everyone has already discussed
this ad nausean, but still. . .
My latest client is buying back his house. It sounds too good to be true. He
owed the lender about 170k, and a 3rd party bid hardly anything, about 15%
of the amount owed. He's buying it back from the 3rd party lender for about
30% of what he formerly owed (there was a 2nd, too)
He can't put it back in his own name, cause the mtg liens would hop back
on.
I find this totally bizarre. Does that lender know something ish I
don't know? I mean, at that price, I would have advised the lender to
keep on bidding. You are talking about a 1973-4 price and he is buying
it back for a 1985 price. from last thread, but relevant to this
post.
My client eliminated, ummm, about 150k worth of debt.
Education is another thing that's been distorted over the last 50+ years. People don't respect "workers", don't want their kids to do "just work". Meaning (IMO), work that can't get you rich. Most work CAN'T get you rich. But, college is sold this way, the fantasy of riches. Now, if you want a job in any company with existing people who ARE college educated you've GOT to have one. It's a stigma not to have it. I'm a programmer (basically), everything I learn about programming I leaned in a community college. My parents wanted me to go to 4 yr college, so I did (I didn't want to work, they paid). I studied accounting/finance. Never really used this degree, BUT it did get me the jobs. Completely stupid, but that's how people think.
Education is another thing that's been distorted over the last 50+ years. People don't respect "workers", don't want their kids to do "just work". Meaning (IMO), work that can't get you rich. Most work CAN'T get you rich.
I'm sensing an incoming wave of hippie layabouts...
So all these cash buyers were out there in the woodworks, all this time, waiting for this moment in time to jump in?" Does not jive with my understanding of human nature. Especially when comes to RRE. !
I personally know some of these cash buyers in SoCal. They are actually investors using cash to buy homes and flipping these homes within 60 days to FHA borrowers. Many of these 'investors' are former subprime mortgage brokers who are now running the FHA loans to the ultimate buyers.
The market is really distorted right now. The supply is limited while the lenders sort out the modification programs (and wait for the new short sale program). And demand is stimulated by the tax credit and the FHA making questionable loans. And of course investors are still out in force (paying all cash).
I can't remember a real estate bubble that didn't end with most people hating real estate ... I don't think we ever got to that stage here - yet.
Liz,
It really doesn't surprise me that much.
Florida is rapidly finding a bottom, one much futher back in history than predicted.
Now, with other bubble areas having delayed housing foreclosures, the real rubber meets the road market price discovery is yet to happen.
CRE will be the big flying burrito as folks find out that they have no cashflow, and no chance to cashflow for a long time.
Otherwise, extend and pretend- look at Wall Street.
BTW- looks like my mod has been approved by investor 6.375%>>>>>3.75% for the life of the 30 year.
That means I really don't care what the balance is- after a while, inflation will start taking away the value of those dollars, bigtime.
Essentially, successful threat has led to renegotiated note, with a loss matching my loss upfront.
I will be interested to see the dirty little details when my paperwork arrives.
As soon as this mod clears, on to the rental property!!
Yes we the sheeple can flip off all the banks if we want.
Everyone can reset prices like Liz's client, if not to 30% then a large enough haircut to wipe out equity and derivative MBS holders at least. Just don't let Congress bail them out.
This market craze won't die until reality kicks the snot out of it. Until there's no system left to game, no fast buck to make. Until speculation is mainly dead and I guess Wall Street with it -- as we know it.
I need to go post an eviction notice on someone's door.
In South Florida, the lenders who are obeying every single rule to a
nit picking extent will preclude any recovery, if only because they can't
process anywhere near enough loans in a timely fashion.
So I guess it is 20-30% on the dollar, after the cash frenzy is over.
Lots more foreclosures to come. Lots more underwater as prices drop.
I know someone here posted a few days ago that it is very slow in the boston market. I can assure you that the market is not going crazy where I am in Albany, NY. High end single family that would've started a bidding war two years ago had no one come to an open house this past weekend.
Prices haven't suffered much or really at all. But no one seems in a hurry to buy. And I certainly don't blame them.
And wait until next year's tax bills. The state is broke. the county is broke. the city is broke. Hello, homeowners!!
Rents continue to fall here in Denver gradually and more quickly in the peripheral mountain communities of Colorado. Purchasing is today roughly 1.5x to 2x the monthly nut that renting is, so there have to be some aggressive assumptions about capital appreciation for purchasing houses to make sense here. And, I guess with all the fear of inflation out there, those assumptions are being made.
I'm 27 years old and would have loved to buy a condo for my first place 5 years ago; I was certainly financially ready for it then, and I remain ready today. It's just a bad idea from a financial standpoint, though, and it's getting worse with every passing day.
I hate watching prudence and responsibility continually punished, and abuses and corruptions of the worst kind repeatedly rewarded. I also hate being unable to purchase a home in sound conscience as I progress into the middle parts of my life. But I just can't join in.
All my reasoning still has me thoroughly convinced that as we build up even more overcapacity and even more debt, labor continues to lose its scarcity, and margins get squeezed by the Internet and other forces of globalization, the structural deflationary forces and negative equilibrium interest rates get stronger. It may take years before we find a cliff again; the cliff may look different; but this is just fundamentally no way to run a railroad.
I'll hold my nominal Treasuries and wait for the laws of gravity to take hold again, and if they don't, then I'll smile and move on with life. I'm comfortable being wrong if I'm wrong despite engaging all my knowledge and thought and doing what I thought was best.
Maybe I enjoy the punishment for my financial chastity. How Puritan of me. On my recent business trip to San Antonio, though I rarely drink, I had a shot of whiskey in the Menger Bar for Teddy Roosevelt and his Rough Riders. It reminded me of the square deals, soft talk, and big sticks on which the nation was founded. And I'll stick to those principals, because it's just who I am.
Do your worst. I'm patient, and I'll buy when it's a good idea. The theater until then is great, and I thank CR for doing such a good screening of the film.
The rent to mortgage payment gap is still too wide - especially with falling rents. Home prices will continue to fall, and interest rates won't be nudging up any time soon.
Homes aren't cheap at half the price when they're still double what they were 8 years ago.
We just have to live there long enough (like another 25 years!!!) to inflict stupendous losses on the "investor" who owns the loan.
My wife fully intends to do just this- she has a duration of 18 years wrt houses, and intends to live in this until she can't climb the stairs- oh year, we go to the gym 3 times a week.
I fully expect that in 18 years, the property taxes will roughly equal the principle and interest owed.
Nothing like inflation coming in a few years, after this bubble deflates, and then- whamo rising prices for food and oil.
But for now in America, houses we got, how many do Hu want?
And, to me, anything 60k and under is functionally equivalent to zero.
A 30 year mtg on 50 k is about 250 a month principal and interest.
Less than a car loan. then there's taxes and insurance, but taxes on a 60k
house, with homestead is very little. Will lenders refuse to insure for more than
the value? Because it will cost more than 60k, to rebuild pretty much anything
after a hurricane, even one that is only mildly destructive. After Andrew in 92,
people who would have freaked were saying that they were lucky--had only 30k
worth of damage. In equivalence, I suppose that would be about 50k in today's
dollars.
Here in socal the pickens are slim as the banksters one by one release REO's at book (2007) value, which get swamped with offers only to be swooped up from an all cash buyer.
I'm sensing an incoming wave of hippie layabouts...
I already fled Boulder for Denver, since were preconditions of a social life. I recently overheard one of the burnt out vagrants here downtown whining about the pathetically small handouts in Denver: "I could've made $50 in these 3 hours in Boulder."
I guess I flee back to Japan next. It's a great place for the bland and friendly.
ndk I keep telling them there are smart, mature people in their 20's.
I would never put money into real estate unless I planned to live or work in it for at least a decade. Just wait, eventually Madoff, Stanford, even Lewis and Paulson have their day in court.
ndk I keep telling them there are smart, mature people in their 20's.
I'm glad you believe that, yogi. I'll avoid introducing you to my childhood friends and their current situations. One of them is even at Harvard Grad now, and -- bless her heart and the remedial economics work they have her do -- I wouldn't use either adjective for her or her classmates. And I don't think she'd fault me at all for that.
That said, a lot of the generational warfare in America is silly, since most of the accusations levied at any cohort are generally true for the whole. It's societal.
Just wait, eventually Madoff, Stanford, even Lewis and Paulson have their day in court.
I think Lewis was thrown under because he broke formation and spilled. The others are nice trophies, but the game and winning strategies remain unchanged. That's much more important than any individual, and it's resilient.
I've got a long time to wait at least, and may never see meaningful regression towards earlier American norms. Oh well -- I can just be myself in the world I've got.
Sorry to be so damn reflective and philosophical. I hate getting this way, preferring to stick to analysis and numbers, but this seems like the right thread to let a little of it out.
Perhaps 'extend and pretend' has worked and its reeling in suckers that think its Party time
People need to believe in this bullshit so badly that TPTB can get away with murder pretending to give the people what they want, and some of them even believe their own press. (so we have a conflagration of rubes and shills plus a handful of sharks)
A friend of mine just moved to Vegas and bought a house. It took him about six months to get it locked up and financed. He lived in a rental while he was working on it.
I wonder if the banks will even become functional again?
With rents falling, I don't see how prices have bottomed. But who knows for sure. There's a LOT of perverse incentives influencing the market.
It really does all come down to future cash flows, and if the assumption is that the dollar will be seriously devalued and there will be major inflation, then buying at these prices would still make a lot of sense. The NYT has a pretty good calculator where you can throw in some numbers.
I just strongly disagree with that assumption, for the reasons listed in my first whine. I'm bullish on the USD in the medium to long term and bearish on nominal yields(e.g. a low return world, in which even a modest rate of default is enough to hurt). About the only man left in the world who is, it seems.
hear ndk. our rent is stabilized in manhattan so we might never end up buying as it doesn't make financial sense. our life approach with hubby had switched 180 degrees during the last 4 years. from workaholics towards working for a wage as little as possible (making sure that only 1 works for a wage at a time, you can say now i'm "retired") and make sure most of our earnings don't come from wages and are mobile.
if things keep on getting worse for those young like us (meaning mostly, there's no significant benefits cuts of public pensions nor SS and medicare) we just leave. life is too short to pick up bills of others all the time. for us the cost of this bail out is significant but the unfunded pensions are much bigger. what we have learned is that the young get fucked without even any acknowledgment being renters on the sidelines during the bubble. we have a list of 10 cities out of USA we would like to exit to if. our deadline is 2012, we plan to come back to nyc but as tourists only. it's cheaper! and more fun
BTW, prices are down so much in Las Vegas that if I were living there and didn't own a house I'd likely buy one.
ac,
The cash buyers are the real deal, but maybe renters are buying with the no-money down gubbmint cheese even though they have NO intentions of ever paying the mortgage. Seriously. How many stories have we heard of people living rent/mortgage free for > 12 months because the banks won't foreclose?
What's not to like about free rent and a free option on home price appreciation!
ndk (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 6:08 pm
I've got a long time to wait at least, and may never see meaningful regression towards earlier American norms. Oh well -- I can just be myself in the world I've got.
Sorry to be so damn reflective and philosophical. I hate getting this way, preferring to stick to analysis and numbers, but this seems like the right thread to let a little of it out.
I'm just a few years older than you, and I agree we will (as an aggregate) never see the quality of life enjoyed by the past generation. The only advantage you or I have is that the rest of us in our demographic are in the same boat, but most don't even realize there IS a boat, much less that it's taking on water, nor that life will not be what they've grown to expect.
I prefer numbers too, but so did those expert in numbers and formulas, and look where that got everyone else. Of course, a universe governed by self-interest doesn't require you to care...
Much better off in gold, oil, commodities than housing as a hedge against inflation. The carrying cost of housing is high. Better off renting partial ownership in an oil tanker.
ResistanceIsFeudal (profile) wrote on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 4:08 pm
People need to believe in this bullshit so badly.....so we have a conflagration of rubes and shills plus a handful of sharks
Yes agree America today is too much of a sheeple society of look at me and your conflagration description is spot on !
Perhaps, but the oversupply in Vegas is so great, that prices can/will go much farther down than income/rent fundamentals would suggest.
Maybe, but you also have to factor in the possibility of inflation and housing stimulus counteracting that. When the median house price has gone from 344k to 140k and I'm looking for an inflation hedge, I start to get interested in that "median house".
Especially when the government subisdizes the purchase.
I'm not necessarily saying prices won't go down, but it starts to meet my criteria where I get interested.
our deadline is 2012, we plan to come back to nyc but as tourists only. it's cheaper! and more fun
Visiting NYC is nice, but I could never, ever live there. It's not at all the pace -- I lived in and loved Tokyo for awhile -- but the incredible disparity between the upper crust and the rest of the scrubs. It's just deeply offensive to me and I don't like being around it.
That, and being three hours from anything resembling nature.
if things keep on getting worse for those young like us (meaning mostly, there's no significant benefits cuts of public pensions nor SS and medicare) we just leave... we have a list of 10 cities out of USA we would like to exit to if.
While I worked at the National Institute in Tokyo, I became close to a Japanese woman who worked there. She's wonderful, and just left her job at NTT to come here for six months as a sort of trial. If things go well, an escape hatch is one of the hidden benefits.
But I don't want to leave; I love the country, and I'm a faithful kind of guy. This is still my homeland and I'll stick around until it's as patently stupid to stay in America as it is to buy a home here.
Also it's worth putting this in the bigger perspective:
The history of inflation and fiat suggests inflationary stimulus will lead to more and more frequent convulsions in markets and the economy as the financial system disintegrates followed by the overall economy.
Once again we seem to just be following the historical path to destruction characteristic of all fiat regimes.
"I'm just a few years older than you, and I agree we will (as an aggregate) never see the quality of life enjoyed by the past generation. The only advantage you or I have is that the rest of us in our demographic are in the same boat, but most don't even realize there IS a boat, much less that it's taking on water, nor that life will not be what they've grown to expect."
like faber says, standards of living in cities outside USA are increasingly closing the gap with USA cities. there's no need to be a martyr with globalization. if you realize you are being abused and taken for granted either minimize what the system takes from you or consider leaving for greener pastures imho.
the problem I have with stories like this is they are entirely anecdotal. Sure, there may be some activity like that occuring, but the statistics do not indicate anything like this is happening on a broad scale.
If I bought a house for 300K in 2006, the HPI declined by 50%, I list for $80K, and get 45 offers and sell for 120K, I still have underperformed the HPI.
Case Shiller is still the best gauge of these things.
The better anecdote in the story was of the realtor who just stopped paying her mortgage. Hearing that is more valuable, because there are no statistics on that sort of thing. It would be nice if someone did a survey or something, it would be invaluable to see the trend in rational defaults.
Now THAT is a business plan for somebody, you would have a lot of buyers for that data, myself included.
But I don't want to leave; I love the country, and I'm a faithful kind of guy
Luckily, this tends to be a young-guy thing. You might get lucky and outgrow it. A country should be viewed as another investment opportunity. The nobility would screw you in an instant (and are right now), and the peasants always turn on each other. That's the history of humans.
Free money led to sham buyers under Greenspan. Free money and tax incentives are likely to do the same under Bernanke. All people need is a belief that prices are rising again.
Unless incomes miraculously shoot up, the end game will be the same.
Now THAT is a business plan for somebody, you would have a lot of buyers for that data, myself included.
Having this behavior become common would indicate a serious change in the peasant's beliefs. Lots of other "interesting" things would be happening at the same time if it did become common.
hey hey hey - fractional ownership in oil tanker time shares - hoops, you there? We can then securitize the timeshare utilizing the expansion of fractional reserve time shares, thus expanding the storage capacity allowing to crude to continue to moonshot while storage continues to fill...
Also this is how buying panics start. If the liquidity and credit are there for it this could be the beginning of a buying binge that goes on for another 5 years (I'm not suggesting this is going to happen).
And keep in mind how the recent stock market rocket ride reinforces the notion that prices always rebound violently to the upside.
Unless incomes miraculously shoot up, the end game will be the same.
Yep -- which is a significant part of the reason equilibrium real interest rates are so low, which is why I sit in my nominal Treasuries and watch the drama.
NYC is tolerant to alternative lifestyles, relatively charitable to its homeless, and has more remaining rent control (socialism) than any city I know. As well as high taxes. We had strong usury laws, but when the banking system went national Shitibank just moved to South Dakota.
There are no gated communities, and neighborhoods are more integrated by skin color and ethnicity than any other city I've visited. I believe there is the same wealth disparity in any other group of millions of people in the US, but in NYC we live side-by-side.
The only imminent foreclosure that I am familiar with was the result of multiple cash-out refis on top of declining income.
FWIW, it has been imminent for several months but the second shoe could drop at any time (or not).
Okay Ghost, since you are most likely a counterparty to my trade in this scenario.
Bought house Dec 2005- 30 yr fixed, 20% dwn, 6.375 rate- local jumbo in phoenix. mortgage $510k-
Total mortgage principle + interest= 510K+635K=1145K
Mod deal- 120k int+ 20k principle to date (12/09)- now 3.75% for remainder of term
New mortgage principle + interest= 490K+277K+ already paid 140k=907K
So the foregone interest is 238k.
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 4:27 pm
Free money led to sham buyers under Greenspan. Free money and tax incentives are likely to do the same under Bernanke. All people need is a belief that prices are rising again. Unless incomes miraculously shoot up, the end game will be the same.
Robert Reich's Blog: Why the Dow is Hitting 10,000 Even When Consumers Can't Buy And Business Cries "Socialism"
So how can the Dow Jones Industrial Average be flirting with 10,000 when consumers, who make up 70 percent of the economy, have had to cut way back on buying because they have no money? Jobs continue to disappear. One out of six Americans is either unemployed or underemployed. Homes can no longer function as piggy banks because they’re worth almost a third less than they were two years ago. And for the first time in more than a decade, Americans are now having to pay down their debts and start to save.
Much better off in gold, oil, commodities than housing as a hedge against inflation. The carrying cost of housing is high. Better off renting partial ownership in an oil tanker.
And, to me, anything 60k and under is functionally equivalent to zero.
And frighteningly close to the 30K-40K or so "event horizon" below which it makes no economic sense to invest any money in upkeep of said house -- time to just cash-cow it for rents while it falls into total disrepair and ultimate unlivability. Talk to Detroit about what happens when housing values fall below that nasty line...
I'm sensing an incoming wave of hippie layabouts...
It's already here, it's called "funemployment" - and it's not just about running out your UI money, it's about not buying a house, not buying (or even owning in many cases) a car, about living well below your means and actually enjoying life instead of getting on the treadmill for more more more. I see more and more of my Gen X peers doing it. The "voluntary simplicity" movement is gaining steam. A lot of us grew up in the 80s seeing Reaganism gut the social safety net and listening to punk rock railing against the system. The me, me, me that started in the 80s is coming home to roost, big time. Bad karma, man.
notaREALamerican, "A country should be viewed as another investment opportunity. "
i'm as pragmatic as i can with this issue. better to try to avoid becoming bitter when old cause things turned out ugly. nationalism and work ethics... sometimes it makes me feel is an attempt to prolong the status quo of an unfair system (like going to a war that shouldn't exist or accepting wage slavery with a smile).
it also helps that we are not the typical consumer (we have very cheap tastes...) we don't cable, i don't have a mobile phone... for me to leave cheaply is a great investment that keeps on giving. enough of my rant anyway...
It looks like the Fed will expand their balance sheet further with additional purchase of MBS beyond the 1.25 T. Plus, Congress will undoubtedly extend the 8000$ tax credit,... The planners are going all out to prop housing price with perhaps new twists that target high-price range. They know full well of the second tsunami of foreclosure and they have to pull all the tricks from the bag. We'll wait and see.
renterinNYC (profile) wrote on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 6:22 pm
like faber says, standards of living in cities outside USA are increasingly closing the gap with USA cities. there's no need to be a martyr with globalization. if you realize you are being abused and taken for granted either minimize what the system takes from you or consider leaving for greener pastures imho.
I don't expect fundamental changes in human nature or an aristocracy that suddenly renounces its wealth and holdings. It's hard to compete with an amoral and mathematically efficient ethical system, and that strategy dominates the game to an ever-larger degree as time goes on.
"instead of getting on the treadmill for more more more. I see more and more of my Gen X peers doing it."
that's 100% myself. i have the treadmill at home! lol, simply put, the rat race doesn't make any sense when you come to realize that our generation will probably work till we drop. so... it's a race to nowhere. why not minimize it as much as possible! and basically, retire while being young (if your very basics are met and if you are lucky enough to not like catching up with the jones).
for example, the $ i save on FICA taxes, i consider it is saving me (or providing me) 2 months of extra life per year (the life i would have to spent in a desk to pay for FICA, for which i would get ... so why was i doing it? cause i didn't know better for once... and cause i romanticized the notion of working as hard as possible bla bla bla... not i'm pragmatic.
It's already here, it's called "funemployment" - and it's not just about running out your UI money, it's about not buying a house, not buying (or even owning in many cases) a car, about living well below your means and actually enjoying life instead of getting on the treadmill for more more more.
Sounds like the '70s in California. When a two dollar an hour crap job would buy you a basement apartment and all the ten-dollar lids you could physically blow -- and you could deal a little on the side to supplement yer income. Works well until you get older and parts of your body start failing.
Not talking against it -- but nearly all the "drop-outs" I've seen lately only make it because they deserve or scam public support in some ways. Nearly all.
You know, with all the stimulus and printing in place, I don't see what could bring the market (housing or stock) down in the short term. What is there that can possibly bring assets back down to earth. I thought the lousy BLS survey last month might slow the rally, but no. Maybe Ben and Timmay won?
It's already here, it's called "funemployment" - and it's not just about running out your UI money, it's about not buying a house, not buying (or even owning in many cases) a car, about living well below your means and actually enjoying life instead of getting on the treadmill for more more more. I see more and more of my Gen X peers doing it. The "voluntary simplicity" movement is gaining steam. A lot of us grew up in the 80s seeing Reaganism gut the social safety net and listening to punk rock railing against the system. The me, me, me that started in the 80s is coming home to roost, big time. Bad karma, man.
Yep, I'm a gen x'er and I'm doing it. We should organize and 'liberate' people from cubes. That could be fun.
CR "I can't remember a real estate bubble that didn't end with most people hating real estate ... I don't think we ever got to that stage here - yet."
That's the stage I'm waiting for. The bubble took us way higher than I ever figured housing prices could go, and took quite a few years to unfold. I expect we'll see the same on the way down, where the bust drags on for several more years and sees prices fall further than most people expect. I'm saving my money and patiently waiting.
So what I want to know is who is doing all this buying? I heard that the condo market in Miami is very hot but they cut the prices in half and the buyers are mostly from out of the country. How do any of this help our economy?
"We should organize and 'liberate' people from cubes."
a chinese friend of mine is doing it! biking around china and telling all his friends to quit the cube. actually, it was a friend of mine years ago (while i was trying to be a high achiever) that gave me the skinny. same age, he plans to work seriously only from 45 on. i 100% agree that with USA demographics, return on labor are probably not gonna be good till then.
"Trillion", how quaint.
$592,000,000,000,000 notional, mostly held by the JPM and GS...
If the bubble is 1%, that's a writedown of 5 thousand, nine hundred billion.
LEH paper claims are going for 37% of notional. (CDS netted out much less)
But GS and JPM, they're so much smarter than those idiots...
Let's say twice as smart. If their paper is worth 74%, that's only paper losses of about 150 thousand billion dollars.
If they are outside the country its a direct exchange of currency - considering how we run massive current account deficits & they are returning currency - it helps. Not enough but some.
I bought my house almost 15 years ago. If I add up all the PITI payments to date, I could still sell my house and have a 30% gain. And that's after a 25% drop in prices from the peak (N. NJ).
I've not only lived rent free, I been paid to own. That could only happen in a fake eCONomy.
By all rights, houses should fall at least another 30%.
And well you should. Keep in mind that when an investment class fall out of favor, it will take longer than any one lifetime to return to favor. Don't expect any profit. But invest because you need it or because it 'pencils'.
Right on ndk. My wife is asian and one of the benefits is a back door if one needs it. As far as NYC goes they can shove it. I was born there and thank g_d my parents got out. Great place to eat but that is it.
After the 80s stock market scare a lot of that money came into housing helping create the bubble. How much of the $millions JTR is seeing is fromthe stock market, CDs, 401k, ...?
Sounds like the '70s in California. When a two dollar an hour crap job would buy you a basement apartment and all the ten-dollar lids you could physically blow -- and you could deal a little on the side to supplement yer income. Works well until you get older and parts of your body start failing.
That's why I'm in Canuckistan - health care
Seriously though, I've paid lots of taxes, and I do a little work, enough to cover rent. I'm still a little cash flow negative this year, so I might get a contract somewhere doing computer stuff, or maybe something completely random just to see what it's like doing something different. It would be nice to put away a little more for retirement. Other than that, no complaints. I've made about $500 over the last couple of months selling junk I don't need on Craigslist.
Not that I'm interested in being a bum or a leech - in fact I abhor that mentality. I'd be perfectly happy working 2-3 days a week, but those opportunities just don't exist.
The US is about to find out what the brits found out after Atlee raped the country...we will find out what a brain drain is as the future producers and innovators move to greener pastures.
The funny thing is, she is excited about leaving Japan because the ossification and comfort there bother her.
She's been to America several times -- including NYC, which she thought was more vibrant than Tokyo, a sentiment with which I strongly disagreed -- and I've gone out of my way to expose her to the grimy underbelly. It doesn't faze her in the least. She finds the chaotic, apoplectic thrashing invigorating in some bizarre way. I find her invigoration seriously amusing.
The relationship dynamics are really comfortable, much more so than with North American women. It just seems to work for us, thus far at least, and I'm very glad it worked for you too.
I think we're much more likely to end up in America in the fullness of time, but who knows. I'm forcing her to learn to cook tsukemen either way, and I'll do the guacamole and Mexican food wherever I go.
Well if I was really a ... I 'd guess this RE frenzy is manufactured to try & keep underwater J6P who is thinking of sending in the keys sending in his mortgage payment instead.
The house trade seems to make sense. A cash buyer takes it from the bank at an extremely low price, then sells the same house to a low end buyer that will use the 8k in government subsidy as a downpayment and borrow from the FHA. Instead of this thing slowing down, I actually think it could accelerate wildly until the FHA collapses in on itself. The banks are happy as they don't really hold the risk (its our pension money that's being stolen or didn't you know?)
This trade would work on any property as long as you can find the sucker to dig themselves into debt for up to US$240k (where the $8k is a 3% downpayment). Roll on the good times until the fun really hit the fan in 2011 as those buying lose their low end jobs and foreclose. Obama is storing up a whole lot of trouble for the 2012 re-election year!!
Did anyone notice at the end of the article it says the realtor stopped paying on her mortgage in JANUARY and the bank still has not gotten to her!!!! That is 9 months!!!
"So what I want to know is who is doing all this buying? I heard that the condo market in Miami is very hot but they cut the prices in half and the buyers are mostly from out of the country. How do any of this help our economy?"
heard a lot is coming from latinoamerica (argentina). believe it or not, even in a serial savings massacres, there is still some cash from there to protect. asked around and more than the return on capital they care about the return of capital.
"Right on ndk. My wife is asian and one of the benefits is a back door if one needs it. As far as NYC goes they can shove it. I was born there and thank g_d my parents got out. Great place to eat but that is it."
it also helps that we are not the typical consumer (we have very cheap tastes...) we don't cable, i don't have a mobile phone... for me to leave cheaply is a great investment that keeps on giving. enough of my rant anyway...
There have been several comments on this site that imply that cell phones are "expensive". Has anyone actually checked prices in several years? They are cheaper than landlines, if you are at all frugal about using them. I've been Cell-phone only since 2004, and never paid more than about $30/mo that entire time.
Not that I'm interested in being a bum or a leech - in fact I abhor that mentality. I'd be perfectly happy working 2-3 days a week, but those opportunities just don't exist.
There's no question that if I could get the health care for me and my wife at a reasonable cost, I'd ditch the job I have now and take something else that paid less and I enjoyed more -- even part-time. I've actually got enough money stashed away that all I have to do is preserve it; I've got the house paid for. I should be able to slack. But the system's rigged in the States; make the wrong move, and they can take it all away. Health costs are the easiest route. So I stay tied to the job I've got largely for the insurance and because there isn't anything else right now.
If the insurance was taken care of, you'd see a lot of olders taking "fun" jobs away from the younger types. In a cold minute. Then they'd really hate us .
ody, "There have been several comments on this site that imply that cell phones are "expensive". Has anyone actually checked prices in several years? They are cheaper than landlines, if you are at all frugal about using them. I've been Cell-phone only since 2004, and never paid more than about $30/mo that entire time."
i use skype, have a fair amount of long international calls (friends and family). cannot beat it!
Will China strike a bargain with an insolvent US, in return for more leverage?
It crossed my mind the other day, that writing off some of the Chinese treasuries could get the US some breathing room, so it's cool to see a confirming article.
"If the insurance was taken care of, you'd see a lot of olders taking "fun" jobs away from the younger types. In a cold minute. Then they'd really hate us. "
no way i'd hate you for doing what you are happy doing instead of having to waste part of your life due to a f*ck up health care system. that's what i hate.
Universal health care could cause many to consider retirement or part time work. There's no reason people need to work 40 years. What gets me is that most people work that long and STILL end up with nothing but social security.
@ dryfly (profile) wrote on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 4:58 pm
Well if I was really a Tinfoil Hat... I 'd guess this RE frenzy is manufactured to try & keep underwater J6P who is thinking of sending in the keys sending in his mortgage payment instead. That is if I was a Tinfoil Hat...
"If the insurance was taken care of, you'd see a lot of olders taking "fun" jobs away from the younger types. In a cold minute. Then they'd really hate us. "
That's not the way it works in countries with Universal Healthcare, so I don't think you have to worry about it too much. Healthcare costs may be one factor preventing some 55-60 year-olds from taking the plunge into a 'fun' job, like starting a new company or diving into a completely unproven field/company/occupation. Most likely for many they'll be somewhat risk adverse for more mundane reasons, like house payments, family commitments, and a life they've spent 30 years building.
But don't worry; I'm sure the young will come up with plenty of other reasons to hate you.
agree noob, plenty of people get stuck in a job they don't like cause of health care benefits and would be able to do sth more entrepreneurial if that issue weren't there.
Most likely for many they'll be somewhat risk adverse simply because they have payments to keep up on.
Not really. Wait until you get there. A lot of us only have 'other payments' because we're still too caught up in the rat race and as we know even if you win you are still a rat.
The young have plenty of other reasons to hate you that will take precedence.
Just understand there have to be as many knife catchers on the way down as there were bandwagon hoppers on the way up. That's how it works
Not at all, unless you count the taxpayers - the next generation of them, anyway - as the knifecatchers. Someone is shoving the sharp end of the knife into their hand.
Is Congress really going to extend (and possibly expand) the First Time Home Renters tax credit? After all the talk about fiscal responsibility, which of course was just talk, but they have to disguise the giveaways better nowadays. I don't expect the Senate and House will be able to agree on a Health-care bill either. We will be lucky to get an UE extension and debt ceiling through the Congress at this point in the session. Remember, members have to get back home to crank up the re-election effort.
agree noob, plenty of people get stuck in a job they don't like cause of health care benefits and would be able to do sth more entrepreneurial if that issue weren't there.
Oh I completely agree with that statement. It's been the one thing that I've brought up everytime this issue arises in real life; Canada benefited tremendously from the USA's fixation on forcing huge healthcare costs on its corporations. While I feel bad that we Canucks are shooting ourselves in the foot by saying this, you yanks would be miles ahead if you simply removed that ball and chain from the entrepreneur's neck.
it also has to help with sustaining the local property tax base, as well as the local surviving businesses, I would think. Who cares where the money comes from?
"Not really. Wait until you get there. A lot of us only have 'other payments' because we're still too caught up in the rat race and as we know even if you win you are still a rat."
totally agree dry, there are some races (& fights) not worth winning.
Rajesh, fiscal responsibility is concerning to an extremely small percentage. We'll get all that stuff you mentioned and then some. The health care package will be much more expensive than effective, though.
Not really. Wait until you get there. A lot of us only have 'other payments' because we're still too caught up in the rat race and as we know even if you win you are still a rat.
It's interesting you say that, as I'm watching it with my father right now. He's in his mid-50's, he's owned his own company since I was a tot, and he's starting to toy with the idea of starting over doing something completely different. I certainly don't put it past anyone, and I hope I still have the spark to start round two (or three or five) when I hit my late 40's early 50's.
However, I see the pull within him. He doesn't have to work too hard, so he spends a lot more time with his grandkids, on his hobbies, and anything else that strikes his fancy. If he started again from scratch he'd be back into that young-man's game of 70 hour weeks and building up a clientèle and a name, so I think he's still torn. It's fascinating to watch the internal struggle.
I think the point I was trying to make earlier is that those who recognize that they're rats and contemplate starting over again are probably outliers compared to those who take the safe bet until they're retired.
Edit: But you're right, I'm not there yet, so I defer to those who are...
But it's not characteristic for him to make a sweeping generalization that "The real estate market has gone crazy" based on isolated local market reports like those he has cited, especially Jim the Realtor.
The real estate market hasn't gone crazy. Just some people have, and maybe some neighborhoods have.
I doubt there is any of the C-S top 20 markets where the data will support that the market's gone crazy for any period of time longer than a few days.
I can check the stats again, but the last time I looked, we were miles ahead of Canada.
Sorry, didn't mean to strike a nerve.
EDIT: Canada has plenty of problems, and my comments re: health-care were specifically focused on the jump-start it would give the entrepreneurs when concerns over dealing with the extra overhead costs from coverage are removed.
"I can check the stats again, but the last time I looked, we were miles ahead of Canada. "
if people weren't into wage slavery in usa nor into catching up with the jones (i think they go together)... maybe they wouldn't be so much into prozac, nor stressed, anxiety, crappy sleeping... maybe even less obese, more leisure, better relationships with family and friends. ok... maybe i went too far?
the typical american has 2 weeks of holidays, why people accept that?
Away from the glare of our potemkin stock market, some rats are starting to chew into the paper mache facade erected by Komrad Ben and his cronies in the Fedburo.
Muni bond yields have shot up for the past several days, signaling credit problems ahead for bankrupt towns, states and counties. Until today, corporate bond yields were starting to creep upwards again as well.
Perhaps just a small disturbance in the force ... or something else altogether.
I've seen this sentiment in several places. But I suspect these cash buyers are investors that are acting rationally, and not speculating on a flip. Maybe somebody has figured out a scam, a way to take money and dump losses on the taxpayer? I find this hard to believe it has much to do with the $8K tax credit.
This is Congress. It has nothing to do with responsibility and everything to do with having enough bodies in the building to pass legislation. We are at mid-October, the health-care bill is just getting to the Senate floor. Extension of the tax credit is still just a talking point. You have two or three weeks to get this stuff done and everyone wants to put their two cents in first.
The past few days, we've been in a euphoria bubble, in that any good news gets blown up while all the significant negative news gets swept away. I've noticed these euphoria bubbles tend to fade faster lately, and come and go fairly quickly.
The big question I'm asking is why they need to create these brief little bubbles. Why can't they just play reality smooth.
There's a reason. Things are happening under the surface. They need to get people real happy before they break.
Don't buy the euphoria. 30 days from now, it may feel a lot different. Keep your feet on the ground and trust what you feel.
Speaking only for myself, I believe there are two forces here:
1) Investors are acting on expectations of high inflation that have been deliberately provoked by the Fed/Treasury team.
2) Very low real interest rates(or the perception thereof) tend to make asset prices of all sorts soar, and a currency drop relative to other currencies. We're seeing irrational gains in commodities, equities, and bonds, so why not in real estate as well?
The ride makes a lot of sense. I just don't want to get on it, because the last station is also pretty obvious, and I'm not interested in playing until then.
This feels too much like the fall of 1999/spring of 2000. It's painful to watch this rally from the sidelines but my gut tells me it's too good to be true and the risk of a sudden downdraft is very high.
FHA requires a 3% down payment but the 8K can be used as the down payment, hence the return of the no-money down home renter. In a year, these people will be underwater (it they don't start out underwater) and wondering if they should keep paying their mortgage or rent a smaller house down the street for 20% less.
@ noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 5:27 pm
he's starting to toy with the idea of starting over doing something completely different. I certainly don't put it past anyone, and I hope I still have the spark to start round two (or three or five) when I hit my late 40's early 50's.
I hope so because you and many others your age will likely have to do to keep ahead for better standard of living. I'm just a few yrs younger than your Dad and have been doing solo consulting for early stage software startups for 15 yrs. Am still loving the game and recently closed 2 new clients - one in Europe.
I'm just a few yrs younger than your Dad and have been doing solo consulting for early stage software startups for 15 yrs. Am still loving the game and recently closed 2 new clients - one in Europe.
I'm glad you're still finding the challenge and excitement in life. I come from a family of people that work with their hands (I'm currently a bit of a black sheep for taking a desk job), but my father saw what his kids did, and I think it got him to wondering if it wasn't too late to really step outside of his comfort zone. I really hope, even if it starts out as a volunteering or something, that he decides to follow that hunch. I'd like him to get to a similar place as you.
EDIT: and congrats on the new clients; it's good to hear good news in this economy...
The bill by itself is going nowhere. The only hope is that it gets bundled into some Christmas tree legislation but all the wrapping paper is being used by the Health-care bill.
Watching the Senate in action is like watch paint dry, except that paint does eventually dry but Senate debate goes on and on.
paint does eventually dry but Senate debate goes on and on
Don't be fooled, Rajesh. It's not an accident. Like I say, the lobbyists are rustling up dollars to get it passed. When they've paid the toll, Congress will find a way to pass it... unless they discover they can get even more by voting for something else instead.
CR, I don't know if you actually believe that the real estate market is hot everywhere, but I think it is worth pointing out in your posts on housing that the REAL ESTATE MARKET IS SLOW IN MANY METRO AREAS. I work with real estate agents everyday and the entire NE is sow. Just because a few crashed areas are seeing activity does not mean the entire housing market is.
A long time ago I read a book, not the only one, that stated that America had been changed into a nation of addicts on purpose in order to move merchandise.
The DOW, the denial, the failure to calculate risks, all seems part of this.
How many people actually stop and think? In an atmosphere of total quiet - without distractions, for 15 minutes? How many could with out being distracted by the need to fill their mind with something? Pick up the cell phone? Text?
We are constantly being stimulated or looking to be. We need distraction. How much is our life a cultivation of the rush? What is a bubble? A collective binge.
1 is first time buyers grabbing anything they can afford before they get laid off. That way they can string out the UE payments by defaulting and squatting without becoming actual bandos. You get an extra bonus if also have a lot of other debt you can default on too and just go on a cash basis for a couple of years until your credit recovers. This is how the $15 hr receptionist at work explained her strategy.
2 is people who sold into the rally and now need a place to stash cash before the markets belly up.
Neither 1 nor 2 say anything good about the economy for the next couple of years.
"is first time buyers grabbing anything they can afford before they get laid off. That way they can string out the UE payments by defaulting and squatting without becoming actual bandos. You get an extra bonus if also have a lot of other debt you can default on too and just go on a cash basis for a couple of years until your credit recovers. This is how the $15 hr receptionist at work explained her strategy."
well, good for her. to a stupid system, the rational response.
You're a freaking genius. But you sound like a 16 year old who just discovered that coach was nailing his girlfriend, the cheerleader, behind his back. You want paradise? You the suffering sensitive gothic cutter type? Man, you make me want to reach thru this screen and smack you. Suck it up or go off the freakin grid
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 7:58 pm
A long time ago I read a book, not the only one, that stated that America had been changed into a nation of addicts on purpose in order to move merchandise.
Yes. It is not really evidence of a vast conspiracy (though there are and were a lot of complicit parties)... just inevitability. Remove the notion that economic efficiency is superior to human purpose and that the most optimal choice among known alternatives is a moral decision, and society would change forever. It will have to reach a point of spectacle where the irony of treating a human being as capital or raw material is obvious as the nose on your face before we have any hope of a better or at least a more human system. Again I am not holding my breath.
Let me regale you with what I found on about my Mom's best friend's can't lose investment. Turns out her BIL, who is already a corporate board member and very well off, somehow (dont ask me how.) got her to take almost her entire life savings, and invest it in a "guaranteed" return (as in, here is the % return youll get, told upfront) real estate investment. My mom was offered the same deal from her friend, and I told her to run like hell. Thankfully, she gracefully declined the offer. I asked her to ask her friend if she had ever asked if she could get her principal investment back if she wanted it back. She never found out if that was possible. I told her, I bet you she can't.
Turns out, this was either a super-leveraged slumlord apartment rental scheme, or a mixture of that AND ponzi scheme. The apartments do exist, and their suits pending against the man for failing to upkeep, renting to illegals with intent to defraud (i think), etc. Apparently the early investors got paid good returns for a while, as did my Mom's friend. Which was when she tried to get my Mom to tag along. Then the returns dried up, then the principal was gone.
Multiple suits against the business owner running the scheme now, for the principal losses. Dont know if my mom's friend's BIL will be ensnared, but did find that he was making money off bringing in new investors. Didnt know that originally but just sounded bad from day 1. Sounds much worse now that all the investors have been bilked.
Such a lovely thing, these real estate bubbles. Too bad we can't detect them while they are inflating. Better to just clean up afterwards.
In an atmosphere of total quiet - without distractions, for 15 minutes?
I do a couple of hours per day, at least.
I spend perhaps 3 or 4 hours a day with other people and the rest of the time I sit quietly, sometimes reading, sometimes watching the beach.
Sometimes I walk several miles per day.
Buildings with doormen are the vertical NYC equivalent of a gated community.
Yes, but the sidewalk, streets, and parks are public. Private armed guards are very rare. In hard times, impoverished people show up in droves every week, and there is no legal way to stop them. There will always tend to be extreme wealth disparity even if the government declares Communism. The high taxes try to address it somewhat but the upper crust moves capital and controls jobs.
I'd like to know where in the US the legal system tries to distribute wealth as equitably as in NYC. Partly why homeless people come.
The United States is a lie.
I often wonder if it was always a lie.
Did it become a lie in the past ten years?
Fifteen?
Was it really the bubble?
Perhaps the bubble is a result of the lie.
Will it ever be the United States again?
I doubt it.
Luckily, I anticipated it well enough to avoid having children.
Assuming these stories from the realtors is true, and I have no reason to believe otherwise, you will find investment funds at the bottoms of these "cash buyers", and in those funds you will find an enormous number of former CD and government-bond holders who are being squeezed by the rate collapse.
These people can now wave good-bye to their principle during the next 4 to 5 years.
I'm the moron who worked hard for thirty years and was cheating out of almost everything for being honest.
I've worked with so many pieces of shit over the past few years.
So many liars, saboteurs, schemers.
You're lucky, dude.
You can pretend you never saw any of it.
I am sorry, well sort of. You are one of the people I always look forward to reading. I really think you are a genius. You sound like they have won. They beat you down. Fuck them. Take some pride in walking away. Don't freakin lament it.
The real problem with the US is it hasn''t shifted into a complete piece-of-shit yet.
There's still a lot of good people and I run into them over and over.
So there's still this strange sick middle ground where you can pretend it's okay, sometimes.
I wish it would the country would just hurry up and change into a full-blown total piece-of-shit so I could be sure of the outcome.
To each his own broward,
I hear that a lot these days, thank god I didn't have any kids...
Only thing that makes life worth living for the Mrs. and me. We waited 8 years before having our first...I am glad we waited, it gave us a perspective a lot of married couples who go out and get married and have kids immediately don't. But for all the free time, and all night philosophy quests...that life was empty and full of pursuits that were in actuality an attempt to mark time. Maybe the country goes to hell, maybe my kids won't have the life I or my parents had. It does scare me, but I wouldn't trade my memories of holding my boys for the first time, for anything.
The US began with a tax revolt. It got bloody, but King George eventually settled his title claims with a steep haircut. The new title holders didn't really want to encourage the Jubilee idea. Andrew Jackson fought off the old oligarchy's last adventure, no doubt motivated by the outrageous British policy of outlawing the ownership of his private property.
The US Supreme Court, in accordance with the Constitution, ordered Jackson to uphold their decision on other claims to title. "Fuck off and die" said the jackass. They couldn't stop him, because he had rallied popular support against the banker oligarchy.
Armed government agents forcibly evicted thousands of perfectly legal claimants and wrote up new titles.
"Possession is nine-tenths of the law" is much more accurate numerically than a bank holding company's asset statement. Call their bluff. Down with the house of cards. The Judiciary can sort out Constitutional claims, and Congress has been thrown out before. Obama is no jackass.
Full disclosure: I have no debt and no bunker even though I have enough dollars to claim a mcmansion. What good does mass foreclosure of underwater homes do me? I could care less if the subway workers and teachers demand a bonus clawed from bank windfall profits. I'd feel safer using a bank run by the Post Office than by Jamie Dimon anyway.
Yes, it's still a casino at least. Everything is tilted in favor of the house, but eventually you might run into something worthwhile or at least a scam that temporarily works out in your favor. Which is about all we can hope for. I guess that's something... Existence didn't present me with a contract either. I probably would have wiped with it if I understood the prospectus.
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 8:28 pm
There's still a lot of good people and I run into them over and over.
So there's still this strange sick middle ground where you can pretend it's okay, sometimes.
I wish it would the country would just hurry up and change into a full-blown total piece-of-shit so I could be sure of the outcome.
Bullshit. Scams flourish in the midst of strong people who haven't become so jaded as to completely question the motives of every single person they come into contact with. Scammers make the world a dark untrusting place, and if there is any justice in the universe there is a special circle of hell reserved for them.
Tonight is "Deep Thoughts Night" on Calculated Risk.
Like Samurai composing poetry before committing suicide. Pondering on the perfect cherry blossom leaf seemed more relevant as one faces self-extermination.
Well, I wrote some more in my ongoing serial novel about the collapse of the US economy. When I started wrtiting it I thought we were almost there. Now, that DOW 10,000 is messing everything up.
sample
"Yeah. Squirrels too. Deer sometimes. But you have to have a lot of dough to get them to pay attention." They didn't get it. "So you were telling me who you were looking for?" Everything had been okay up until now. All of a sudden the vibe had changed. I noticed Roger taking another look at his watch. What? He had a dental appointment? Way off, at the edge of my hearing, I heard movement. Someone, no someones were coming. Coming very quietly too. "Gardener, it's like this. We were hired to find a lost kid."
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 8:39 pm
Scammers make the world a dark untrusting place, and if there is any justice in the universe there is a special circle of hell reserved for them.
At least the scammer is what we might call "consciously evil". With "conscious" in there, we know there is something to work with and some willpower behind it.
Is that the circle where you have to listen to whiny protest songs from the 60s forever?
It's just beside that circle, close enough so you can still hear them. In this circle, it rains all the time and the only shelter is a tent. The tent is full of holes and there is a plague of mosquitoes the likes of which the world has never seen.
Nova is practicing tough love in an internet chat room. Hi-larious. But I think I get it. Broward has demonstrated genius, zest for living, and known success. Kinda scary to think a guy like that can hit his 50's and implode. Not reassuring for the rest of us on the track of uncertainty.
++++
The Breitbart linked story concerning the second in command of China's military doing a week long tour of our military establishments has me puzzled. More conditions of continued treasury buying? I miss the cold war somedays.
And ... when one C$ buys you two US$, Canadians will be able to save the US real estate market. Would not mind a bit of land that is not permanently snow covered.
Hey serious question...does anyone know where the original use of God as a bartender came from?...I have been trying to track down the image to some book or cartoon...but I just keep finding more and more use of it with no logical connection.
Avg days on market 64.
Supply, 4.8 months
Avvg price $175,000.00 SFR
42,000 properties listed and active (down from 56,000)
Ask vs sold 97% of asking price
Looks like there are buyers here too.
Info from Arizona MLS. can not link due to copy right.
The United States is a lie.
I often wonder if it was always a lie.
Lie is a strong word - I go with 'myth'... similar but not intentionally malevolent untruth.
And - 'yes' it always was... consider the constitution & declaration of independence... all that 'all men are created equal' stuff except those men picking cotton [and all women for that matter].
You can conservatively figure that global stock markets have increased in value by about $10 trillion since March.
Data and gut instinct tell you that probably not more than $2-3 trillion is real equity. The rest is derivatives or leveraged, and it's concentrated in fairly few hands. It's hot money.
I'm not denying there is a Bernanke put. But it's not big enough to prop up $7-8 trillion of hot money, in markets all over the world.
If the U.S. market had rallied faster than the rest, it would signal the Bernanke put is strong. In fact, it's been just the opposite. The hot money actually prefers to go abroad. Borders matter to real investors but not hot money traders.
There were fundamentals supporting the market for 3-4 months and then there was the Bernanke put supporting it for some time.
Now, it's just traders on leverage on steroids. Watch and see.
broward, i found you on the ignore list, but never ignored you. i share your pessimism, but things actually had improved a lot if you instead of decades go backwards using centuries. so we went from kids dying young while working barefoot in humid coal mines and slavery ... kids & women have it better than they used to, and pseudo-freedom (wage slavery still goes on one way or the other) & internet!.
Anyone can be scammed that is why I used the word flourish. The weak go willingly, we have a lot of weak people now days.
Scams occur irrespective of the intelligence of the scammer or scammee. To identify a scam you have to have a reason to believe that the person has alterior motives, instead of giving them the benefit of a doubt. I believe trust is earned, but if the only solution is to live in a world where I have to be suspicious of everyone until they prove themselves trustworthy, get me out, because that ride sucks.
I'd rather lose money to the odd scammer and give people the benefit of a doubt than live that dark existence.
"Lie is a strong word - I go with 'myth'... similar but not intentionally malevolent untruth.
And - 'yes' it always was... consider the constitution & declaration of independence... all that 'all men are created equal' stuff except those men picking cotton [and all women for that matter]. "
100% agree. property owners defending their stuff, same old same old.
Yeah, maybe there were 10 offers, but prob half of them were for 50-60k. Small fish bottom feeding is a lot different than a great white feeding frenzy.
When gauging the past with the present...we seem to cherry pick data...I find it better to pretend to be a rich noble from any time period and proceed from there. Roll of the dice today, you could have been born somewhere with stone age conditions still...if you catch my drift...So on that basis, is life better for me today as a rich member of the aristocracy or in some other bygone era....think, think, think. You can also use banker...but alas, in some eras, bankers weren't plentiful or even allowed in public, thus I usually go for an easier target. My take has always been that the present isn't always what it is purported to be, and in fact life in some parts of the past was better for the average nobleman, than today. Remember to factor in hot water to your equations though...easy access to hot water is a big plus!
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 8:48 pm
Hey serious question...does anyone know where the original use of God as a bartender came from?...I have been trying to track down the image to some book or cartoon...but I just keep finding more and more use of it with no logical connection.
The first thing that came to mind was a certain Quantum Leap episode I'm sure it's far older than this, however.
The suspension of rules and accepted norms in every aspect of our society driven by fraud, corruption and blatant manipulation of information. I am uncertain what tomorrow will bring in comparison to my previously accepted reality.
Yeah, So be it.
If you understand, things are just as they are; if you do not understand, things are just as they are.
Much older than that Resistance. But that episode and the Dave Matthews song is what got me on this little quest. I found a little short story from the 1880s suggesting that since God created beer/whiskey he must be a great bartender...far back as I have gone.
RRE prices are down by 50% from bubble days here.
Allot back to 2000 prices.
There may be lower prices in the future, we have a ton of forclosures and yet to be forclosed. My guess is things will remain interesting through 2010 at least.
I found a little short story from the 1880s suggesting that since God created beer/whiskey he must be a great bartender...far back as I have gone.
A relative who happens to be a preacher informed me that alcohol consumption, even excessive consumption, is perfectly biblical. The first miracle performed by Jesus was to change water into wine, and this was after the entire wedding party was already completely blitzed.
If we weren't meant to consume alcohol, I'm sure he would have chosen a different venue to display his power.
One thing I find interesting is that 3 yrs after a forclosure you can buy again with an FHA loan. If they can keep this puppy going, and prices don't inflate, people who lost their home today can buy it at half price in a few years. And with very little down.
"Worked, as in got people / investors to buy houses. Removed available inventory from the market (not to say there isn't more on the way),"
By socializing the losses on the taxpayer. When the FHA blows a gasket, Barney and Chuckie and Harry and Nancy will be there to shovel billions more of taxpayer money into the crapper.
Hey Nuke,
New story out about the New York deficit. The comptroller estimates a $4.1 billion deficit up from $3 billion Patterson estimated last month.
"The state’s $133.5 billion budget, counting federal aid and revisions since April, is 9.8 percent larger than last year’s. Excluding federal aid, which increased under President Barack Obama’s economic stimulus program, state spending rose 3.4 percent to $86 billion.
In April, Paterson and lawmakers closed a $17.7 billion deficit with $5.1 billion of spending cuts, $5.2 billion of new or increased taxes, $6.2 billion of federal stimulus money and $1.1 billion of one-time revenue, according to tabulations from the Assembly.
Below Projections
New York’s tax revenue from April 1 to Sept. 15 totaled $18.1 billion, or $634.5 million below state projections and $3.6 billion less than a year ago, primarily because personal income tax collections were less than anticipated."
Local news is reporting Patterson will announce measures tomorrow to close the funding gap.
Broward you need to be your own boss and create your own job.
So after 30 years sharing the stage and the spotlight in the Allman Brothers, original member Dickie Betts got thrown out on his ass in 2000. They used used lies and bullshit, calling him a loser. He got a band together and hit the road. Most people, even if they owned a bunch of ABB records, had never heard the name of the composer of Jessica, In Memory of Elizabeth Reed, Blue Sky, Les Brers..., and of course Ramblin' Man. They hadn't sold very well since the early '80's. Betts says the record company asked him to write something with a pop beat, as had the Rolling Stones, Pink Floyd, Winwood, etc. Those 'artists' sold out stadiums and got huge corporate sponsorship deals.
He laughed at them. He knew they didn't think he was worth killing. So now he tours small theaters and prints his own CD's. He opens with a ten-minute instrumental, and usually closes with a 20 minute Eliz. Reed. I've seen about 20 shows since 2004. When there is a sound problem, he stops the show until it gets fixed. No one ever boos. Not once has the show ended without the entire audience cheering wildly, even non-hippies in their 50's jumping up and down shouting.
He's never said a bad word against the Allman Brothers. There is no bitterness in his music, but no capitulation, other than obliging the crowd with Ramblin' Man for an encore. He doesn't preach like Bono or McCartney, and pays band members a salary. He flies, they ride the bus. But still no corporate sponsors.
"Local news is reporting Patterson will announce measures tomorrow to close the funding gap. "
for really scary budget gaps check out hte finance report of nyc. nyc and nys pensions liabilities are just mind blowing and unplayable imho. unless the health care benefits burden is shifted to the feds (that can print $ to pay for them)
I am well aware of them. I suspect they will kick the can by massaging the actuarial assumptions to make things look better than they are hoping for the magic market to make the fund whole. It won't end well.
If you don't see him in Frederick or Falls Church in December you will lose trillions. Check out "Live at The Odeon- Cleveland, -04" or "The Official Bootleg, 06". But the band is even tighter now.
If the U.S. market had rallied faster than the rest, it would signal the Bernanke put is strong. In fact, it's been just the opposite. The hot money actually prefers to go abroad. Borders matter to real investors but not hot money traders.
Dead thread, but this is an excellent point that I hadn't considered, Rich. Thanks.
I think the market is totally insane, I know everyone has already discussed
this ad nausean, but still. . .
My latest client is buying back his house. It sounds too good to be true. He
owed the lender about 170k, and a 3rd party bid hardly anything, about 15%
of the amount owed. He's buying it back from the 3rd party lender for about
30% of what he formerly owed (there was a 2nd, too)
He can't put it back in his own name, cause the mtg liens would hop back
on.
I find this totally bizarre. Does that lender know something
ish I
from last thread, but relevant to this
don't know? I mean, at that price, I would have advised the lender to
keep on bidding. You are talking about a 1973-4 price and he is buying
it back for a 1985 price.
post.
My client eliminated, ummm, about 150k worth of debt.
Buy now or be priced out for Heather.
Education pigged comment:
Education is another thing that's been distorted over the last 50+ years. People don't respect "workers", don't want their kids to do "just work". Meaning (IMO), work that can't get you rich. Most work CAN'T get you rich. But, college is sold this way, the fantasy of riches. Now, if you want a job in any company with existing people who ARE college educated you've GOT to have one. It's a stigma not to have it. I'm a programmer (basically), everything I learn about programming I leaned in a community college. My parents wanted me to go to 4 yr college, so I did (I didn't want to work, they paid). I studied accounting/finance. Never really used this degree, BUT it did get me the jobs. Completely stupid, but that's how people think.
I still prefer michelle caruso-cabrera
There's just something about her, but I can't put my finger on it-
Looks like "all that money on the sidelines" has entered the game.
I'm sensing an incoming wave of hippie layabouts...
So all these cash buyers were out there in the woodworks, all this time, waiting for this moment in time to jump in?" Does not jive with my understanding of human nature. Especially when comes to RRE. !
CR - do you think the cash purchasers are looking to flip, or to rent, the houses they are buying?
I personally know some of these cash buyers in SoCal. They are actually investors using cash to buy homes and flipping these homes within 60 days to FHA borrowers. Many of these 'investors' are former subprime mortgage brokers who are now running the FHA loans to the ultimate buyers.
The market is really distorted right now. The supply is limited while the lenders sort out the modification programs (and wait for the new short sale program). And demand is stimulated by the tax credit and the FHA making questionable loans. And of course investors are still out in force (paying all cash).
I can't remember a real estate bubble that didn't end with most people hating real estate ... I don't think we ever got to that stage here - yet.
best wishes
Jack Staub wrote:
AH, i feel better now. At least the "less-than-smartest but still amoral scum-bags" are starting to get some of the government loot.
Crazy. Crazy. Crazy.
What has Bernanke and Geithner wrought?
Liz,
It really doesn't surprise me that much.
Florida is rapidly finding a bottom, one much futher back in history than predicted.
Now, with other bubble areas having delayed housing foreclosures, the real rubber meets the road market price discovery is yet to happen.
CRE will be the big flying burrito as folks find out that they have no cashflow, and no chance to cashflow for a long time.
Otherwise, extend and pretend- look at Wall Street.
BTW- looks like my mod has been approved by investor 6.375%>>>>>3.75% for the life of the 30 year.
That means I really don't care what the balance is- after a while, inflation will start taking away the value of those dollars, bigtime.
Essentially, successful threat has led to renegotiated note, with a loss matching my loss upfront.
I will be interested to see the dirty little details when my paperwork arrives.
As soon as this mod clears, on to the rental property!!
Someday this war's gonna end...
Terry, the ones I know are looking to rent (but that is at the low end). Jim the Realtor featured a flipper today ... so probably both.
best to all
Yes we the sheeple can flip off all the banks if we want.
Everyone can reset prices like Liz's client, if not to 30% then a large enough haircut to wipe out equity and derivative MBS holders at least. Just don't let Congress bail them out.
This frenzy is a combination of stimulus and hyperinflation fears.
This market craze won't die until reality kicks the snot out of it. Until there's no system left to game, no fast buck to make. Until speculation is mainly dead and I guess Wall Street with it -- as we know it.
Pwnzi wrote:
Could be. Might be part of the PrudentBear article from yesterday. People trying to get out of cash.
The end of American civilization as we know it.
My dog had a dog house she never used. It was shaped like an igloo. I wonder if we threw it out, or if it's still in the basement.
With electric wiring installed, small furniture, for very small people. What am I bid?
I still think it's too good to be true.
I need to go post an eviction notice on someone's door.
In South Florida, the lenders who are obeying every single rule to a
nit picking extent will preclude any recovery, if only because they can't
process anywhere near enough loans in a timely fashion.
So I guess it is 20-30% on the dollar, after the cash frenzy is over.
Lots more foreclosures to come. Lots more underwater as prices drop.
I know someone here posted a few days ago that it is very slow in the boston market. I can assure you that the market is not going crazy where I am in Albany, NY. High end single family that would've started a bidding war two years ago had no one come to an open house this past weekend.
Prices haven't suffered much or really at all. But no one seems in a hurry to buy. And I certainly don't blame them.
And wait until next year's tax bills. The state is broke. the county is broke. the city is broke. Hello, homeowners!!
"The end of American civilization as we know it."
Happens every ten years, these days.
steelhead wrote:
Naaa... A new Merica. A nation of speculators or LOSERS (GET A JOB YOU HIPPY!!!)
I dunno. I see the same properties for sale today that were around 3 mos. ago. Of course, I don't live in SD, LV or FLA.
Congrats on your mod, AllenM!!!!
I don't live in SD, LV or FLA.
LV = Lower Volta? Is the market hot there?
I see dark towers.
Well, everyone should threaten to default and get 3.75%.
No matter what your situation!
pavel.chichikov wrote:
The vacation home rebound market. Next hot thing.
Not hard to see dark towers in downtown Miami or Miami Beach.
Rents continue to fall here in Denver gradually and more quickly in the peripheral mountain communities of Colorado. Purchasing is today roughly 1.5x to 2x the monthly nut that renting is, so there have to be some aggressive assumptions about capital appreciation for purchasing houses to make sense here. And, I guess with all the fear of inflation out there, those assumptions are being made.
I'm 27 years old and would have loved to buy a condo for my first place 5 years ago; I was certainly financially ready for it then, and I remain ready today. It's just a bad idea from a financial standpoint, though, and it's getting worse with every passing day.
I hate watching prudence and responsibility continually punished, and abuses and corruptions of the worst kind repeatedly rewarded. I also hate being unable to purchase a home in sound conscience as I progress into the middle parts of my life. But I just can't join in.
All my reasoning still has me thoroughly convinced that as we build up even more overcapacity and even more debt, labor continues to lose its scarcity, and margins get squeezed by the Internet and other forces of globalization, the structural deflationary forces and negative equilibrium interest rates get stronger. It may take years before we find a cliff again; the cliff may look different; but this is just fundamentally no way to run a railroad.
I'll hold my nominal Treasuries and wait for the laws of gravity to take hold again, and if they don't, then I'll smile and move on with life. I'm comfortable being wrong if I'm wrong despite engaging all my knowledge and thought and doing what I thought was best.
Maybe I enjoy the punishment for my financial chastity. How Puritan of me. On my recent business trip to San Antonio, though I rarely drink, I had a shot of whiskey in the Menger Bar for Teddy Roosevelt and his Rough Riders. It reminded me of the square deals, soft talk, and big sticks on which the nation was founded. And I'll stick to those principals, because it's just who I am.
Do your worst. I'm patient, and I'll buy when it's a good idea. The theater until then is great, and I thank CR for doing such a good screening of the film.
steelhead wrote:
The Old World never really thought of us as civilized anyway-
The rent to mortgage payment gap is still too wide - especially with falling rents. Home prices will continue to fall, and interest rates won't be nudging up any time soon.
Homes aren't cheap at half the price when they're still double what they were 8 years ago.
We just have to live there long enough (like another 25 years!!!) to inflict stupendous losses on the "investor" who owns the loan.
My wife fully intends to do just this- she has a duration of 18 years wrt houses, and intends to live in this until she can't climb the stairs- oh year, we go to the gym 3 times a week.
I fully expect that in 18 years, the property taxes will roughly equal the principle and interest owed.
Nothing like inflation coming in a few years, after this bubble deflates, and then- whamo rising prices for food and oil.
But for now in America, houses we got, how many do Hu want?
Someday this war's gonna end...
Off to post my 3 day notice.
And, to me, anything 60k and under is functionally equivalent to zero.
A 30 year mtg on 50 k is about 250 a month principal and interest.
Less than a car loan. then there's taxes and insurance, but taxes on a 60k
house, with homestead is very little. Will lenders refuse to insure for more than
the value? Because it will cost more than 60k, to rebuild pretty much anything
after a hurricane, even one that is only mildly destructive. After Andrew in 92,
people who would have freaked were saying that they were lucky--had only 30k
worth of damage. In equivalence, I suppose that would be about 50k in today's
dollars.
We have entered bizarro Twilight Zone.
Here in socal the pickens are slim as the banksters one by one release REO's at book (2007) value, which get swamped with offers only to be swooped up from an all cash buyer.
ndk wrote:
Must be a word for that. Self-SomethingOrOther....
I already fled Boulder for Denver, since
were preconditions of a social life. I recently overheard one of the burnt out vagrants here downtown whining about the pathetically small handouts in Denver: "I could've made $50 in these 3 hours in Boulder."
I guess I flee back to Japan next.
It's a great place for the bland and friendly. 
ndk I keep telling them there are smart, mature people in their 20's.
I would never put money into real estate unless I planned to live or work in it for at least a decade. Just wait, eventually Madoff, Stanford, even Lewis and Paulson have their day in court.
I think it would be pretty sad if we all got back on the RE train...
That will be the event that leads me to short the dollar...
There's goldbugs and there's realestatebugs.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
Only to offically take the title of the court, I think. Sir Paulson, a Knight of the Loyal Order of the Eternal Smart Amoral Scumbags.
ALL HAIL OUR NOBILITY!
....................people usually say market is distorted when the market doesnt move what they thought.........poor things.........
Perhaps 'extend and pretend' has worked and its reeling in suckers that think its
time
I'm glad you believe that, yogi. I'll avoid introducing you to my childhood friends and their current situations.
One of them is even at Harvard Grad now, and -- bless her heart and the remedial economics work they have her do -- I wouldn't use either adjective for her or her classmates. And I don't think she'd fault me at all for that.
That said, a lot of the generational warfare in America is silly, since most of the accusations levied at any cohort are generally true for the whole. It's societal.
I think Lewis was thrown under because he broke formation and spilled. The others are nice trophies, but the game and winning strategies remain unchanged. That's much more important than any individual, and it's resilient.
I've got a long time to wait at least, and may never see meaningful regression towards earlier American norms. Oh well -- I can just be myself in the world I've got.
Sorry to be so damn reflective and philosophical. I hate getting this way, preferring to stick to analysis and numbers, but this seems like the right thread to let a little of it out.
- We have 1/2 the inventory we had a year ago and 4 times as many buyers as we did a year ago.
As they print money to give to homebuyers this will happen everywhere.
The next wave of the global superbubble is in full swing.
km4 (profile) wrote on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 6:04 pm
Perhaps 'extend and pretend' has worked and its reeling in suckers that think its Party time
People need to believe in this bullshit so badly that TPTB can get away with murder pretending to give the people what they want, and some of them even believe their own press. (so we have a conflagration of rubes and shills plus a handful of sharks)
Per the Census Bureau, rents have doubled since 1988 while house prices have almost tripled.
With rents falling, I don't see how prices have bottomed. But who knows for sure. There's a LOT of perverse incentives influencing the market.
BTW, prices are down so much in Las Vegas that if I were living there and didn't own a house I'd likely buy one.
Also, I don't see any of this reflected on housingtracker yet, but look at the magnitude of those price declines:
HousingTracker.net | Median Home Asking Price & Inventory Data for Las Vegas, Nevada
A friend of mine just moved to Vegas and bought a house. It took him about six months to get it locked up and financed. He lived in a rental while he was working on it.
I wonder if the banks will even become functional again?
ac,
Perhaps, but the oversupply in Vegas is so great, that prices can/will go much farther down than income/rent fundamentals would suggest.
It really does all come down to future cash flows, and if the assumption is that the dollar will be seriously devalued and there will be major inflation, then buying at these prices would still make a lot of sense. The NYT has a pretty good calculator where you can throw in some numbers.
- NY Times
I just strongly disagree with that assumption, for the reasons listed in my first whine. I'm bullish on the USD in the medium to long term and bearish on nominal yields(e.g. a low return world, in which even a modest rate of default is enough to hurt). About the only man left in the world who is, it seems.
WhO cArEz! DOW 10000!!!!!!!!
btw, check this out! America loves illusionz!
After Words - After Words: Chris Hedges, "Empire of Illusion," Interviewed by Ron Suskind - Book TV
hear ndk. our rent is stabilized in manhattan so we might never end up buying as it doesn't make financial sense. our life approach with hubby had switched 180 degrees during the last 4 years. from workaholics towards working for a wage as little as possible (making sure that only 1 works for a wage at a time, you can say now i'm "retired") and make sure most of our earnings don't come from wages and are mobile.
if things keep on getting worse for those young like us (meaning mostly, there's no significant benefits cuts of public pensions nor SS and medicare) we just leave. life is too short to pick up bills of others all the time. for us the cost of this bail out is significant but the unfunded pensions are much bigger. what we have learned is that the young get fucked without even any acknowledgment being renters on the sidelines during the bubble. we have a list of 10 cities out of USA we would like to exit to if. our deadline is 2012, we plan to come back to nyc but as tourists only. it's cheaper! and more fun
BTW, prices are down so much in Las Vegas that if I were living there and didn't own a house I'd likely buy one.
ac,
The cash buyers are the real deal, but maybe renters are buying with the no-money down gubbmint cheese even though they have NO intentions of ever paying the mortgage. Seriously. How many stories have we heard of people living rent/mortgage free for > 12 months because the banks won't foreclose?
What's not to like about free rent and a free option on home price appreciation!
Our eCONomy is one big sham.
ndk (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 6:08 pm
I've got a long time to wait at least, and may never see meaningful regression towards earlier American norms. Oh well -- I can just be myself in the world I've got.
Sorry to be so damn reflective and philosophical. I hate getting this way, preferring to stick to analysis and numbers, but this seems like the right thread to let a little of it out.
I'm just a few years older than you, and I agree we will (as an aggregate) never see the quality of life enjoyed by the past generation. The only advantage you or I have is that the rest of us in our demographic are in the same boat, but most don't even realize there IS a boat, much less that it's taking on water, nor that life will not be what they've grown to expect.
I prefer numbers too, but so did those expert in numbers and formulas, and look where that got everyone else. Of course, a universe governed by self-interest doesn't require you to care...
Much better off in gold, oil, commodities than housing as a hedge against inflation. The carrying cost of housing is high. Better off renting partial ownership in an oil tanker.
Yes agree America today is too much of a sheeple society of look at me and your conflagration description is spot on !
ac,
Perhaps, but the oversupply in Vegas is so great, that prices can/will go much farther down than income/rent fundamentals would suggest.
Maybe, but you also have to factor in the possibility of inflation and housing stimulus counteracting that. When the median house price has gone from 344k to 140k and I'm looking for an inflation hedge, I start to get interested in that "median house".
Especially when the government subisdizes the purchase.
I'm not necessarily saying prices won't go down, but it starts to meet my criteria where I get interested.
these are market timers.
can't wait to see how well they fare....from the sidelines....in my rental.
we will not monetize (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 6:16 pm
these are market timers.
can't wait to see how well they fare....from the sidelines....in my rental.
+1 and a real-life LOL.
Visiting NYC is nice, but I could never, ever live there. It's not at all the pace -- I lived in and loved Tokyo for awhile -- but the incredible disparity between the upper crust and the rest of the scrubs. It's just deeply offensive to me and I don't like being around it.
That, and being three hours from anything resembling nature.
While I worked at the National Institute in Tokyo, I became close to a Japanese woman who worked there. She's wonderful, and just left her job at NTT to come here for six months as a sort of trial. If things go well, an escape hatch is one of the hidden benefits.
But I don't want to leave; I love the country, and I'm a faithful kind of guy. This is still my homeland and I'll stick around until it's as patently stupid to stay in America as it is to buy a home here.
km4 (profile) wrote on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 6:16 pm
Yes agree America today is too much of a sheeple society of look at me and your conflagration description is spot on !
some shills are also rubes, and some shills are sharks. no sharks are rubes, however.
Also it's worth putting this in the bigger perspective:
The history of inflation and fiat suggests inflationary stimulus will lead to more and more frequent convulsions in markets and the economy as the financial system disintegrates followed by the overall economy.
Once again we seem to just be following the historical path to destruction characteristic of all fiat regimes.
A little perspective -
When I bought my house in 1999, the realtor said the days of homes appreciating 5-10% per year were over and we shouldn't consider it an investment.
He was half right.
"I'm just a few years older than you, and I agree we will (as an aggregate) never see the quality of life enjoyed by the past generation. The only advantage you or I have is that the rest of us in our demographic are in the same boat, but most don't even realize there IS a boat, much less that it's taking on water, nor that life will not be what they've grown to expect."
like faber says, standards of living in cities outside USA are increasingly closing the gap with USA cities. there's no need to be a martyr with globalization. if you realize you are being abused and taken for granted either minimize what the system takes from you or consider leaving for greener pastures imho.
the problem I have with stories like this is they are entirely anecdotal. Sure, there may be some activity like that occuring, but the statistics do not indicate anything like this is happening on a broad scale.
If I bought a house for 300K in 2006, the HPI declined by 50%, I list for $80K, and get 45 offers and sell for 120K, I still have underperformed the HPI.
Case Shiller is still the best gauge of these things.
The better anecdote in the story was of the realtor who just stopped paying her mortgage. Hearing that is more valuable, because there are no statistics on that sort of thing. It would be nice if someone did a survey or something, it would be invaluable to see the trend in rational defaults.
Now THAT is a business plan for somebody, you would have a lot of buyers for that data, myself included.
ndk wrote:
Luckily, this tends to be a young-guy thing. You might get lucky and outgrow it. A country should be viewed as another investment opportunity. The nobility would screw you in an instant (and are right now), and the peasants always turn on each other. That's the history of humans.
Charles Kiting wrote:
Well said.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Has anyone ever seen the Case-Schiller graphs with the inflation adjustment included?
I guess you would want to look at it three ways: unadjusted, CPI-adjusted, and Shadowstats CPI-adjusted.
Free money led to sham buyers under Greenspan. Free money and tax incentives are likely to do the same under Bernanke. All people need is a belief that prices are rising again.
Unless incomes miraculously shoot up, the end game will be the same.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
Having this behavior become common would indicate a serious change in the peasant's beliefs. Lots of other "interesting" things would be happening at the same time if it did become common.
hey hey hey - fractional ownership in oil tanker time shares - hoops, you there? We can then securitize the timeshare utilizing the expansion of fractional reserve time shares, thus expanding the storage capacity allowing to crude to continue to moonshot while storage continues to fill...
Also this is how buying panics start. If the liquidity and credit are there for it this could be the beginning of a buying binge that goes on for another 5 years (I'm not suggesting this is going to happen).
And keep in mind how the recent stock market rocket ride reinforces the notion that prices always rebound violently to the upside.
Yep -- which is a significant part of the reason equilibrium real interest rates are so low, which is why I sit in my nominal Treasuries and watch the drama.
NYC is tolerant to alternative lifestyles, relatively charitable to its homeless, and has more remaining rent control (socialism) than any city I know. As well as high taxes. We had strong usury laws, but when the banking system went national Shitibank just moved to South Dakota.
There are no gated communities, and neighborhoods are more integrated by skin color and ethnicity than any other city I've visited. I believe there is the same wealth disparity in any other group of millions of people in the US, but in NYC we live side-by-side.
The only imminent foreclosure that I am familiar with was the result of multiple cash-out refis on top of declining income.
FWIW, it has been imminent for several months but the second shoe could drop at any time (or not).
Completely OT, but something I found entertaining last night at 3AM:
In my laboratory, there's a cabinet filled with acids including metal etchants
Aluminum Etchant, Nickel Etchant, Titanium Etchant and...
"GLOD ETCHANT"
Okay Ghost, since you are most likely a counterparty to my trade in this scenario.
Bought house Dec 2005- 30 yr fixed, 20% dwn, 6.375 rate- local jumbo in phoenix. mortgage $510k-
Total mortgage principle + interest= 510K+635K=1145K
Mod deal- 120k int+ 20k principle to date (12/09)- now 3.75% for remainder of term
New mortgage principle + interest= 490K+277K+ already paid 140k=907K
So the foregone interest is 238k.
So now who is going to love eating that loss?
That is the deal as of today's email.
Happy?
Someday this war's gonna end...
Robert Reich's Blog: Why the Dow is Hitting 10,000 Even When Consumers Can't Buy And Business Cries "Socialism"
So how can the Dow Jones Industrial Average be flirting with 10,000 when consumers, who make up 70 percent of the economy, have had to cut way back on buying because they have no money? Jobs continue to disappear. One out of six Americans is either unemployed or underemployed. Homes can no longer function as piggy banks because they’re worth almost a third less than they were two years ago. And for the first time in more than a decade, Americans are now having to pay down their debts and start to save.
Here we go again
TNK for example?
which is why I sit in my nominal Treasuries and watch the drama.
Me, too. If the Dow gets up to 20K, I won't care.
lawyerliz wrote:
And frighteningly close to the 30K-40K or so "event horizon" below which it makes no economic sense to invest any money in upkeep of said house -- time to just cash-cow it for rents while it falls into total disrepair and ultimate unlivability. Talk to Detroit about what happens when housing values fall below that nasty line...
Trillion Only a word only a number, million seconds = 12 days, Trillion Seconds only 31,000 YEARS
Jonathan wrote:
It's already here, it's called "funemployment" - and it's not just about running out your UI money, it's about not buying a house, not buying (or even owning in many cases) a car, about living well below your means and actually enjoying life instead of getting on the treadmill for more more more. I see more and more of my Gen X peers doing it. The "voluntary simplicity" movement is gaining steam. A lot of us grew up in the 80s seeing Reaganism gut the social safety net and listening to punk rock railing against the system. The me, me, me that started in the 80s is coming home to roost, big time. Bad karma, man.
notaREALamerican, "A country should be viewed as another investment opportunity. "
i'm as pragmatic as i can with this issue. better to try to avoid becoming bitter when old cause things turned out ugly. nationalism and work ethics... sometimes it makes me feel is an attempt to prolong the status quo of an unfair system (like going to a war that shouldn't exist or accepting wage slavery with a smile).
it also helps that we are not the typical consumer (we have very cheap tastes...) we don't cable, i don't have a mobile phone... for me to leave cheaply is a great investment that keeps on giving. enough of my rant anyway...
It looks like the Fed will expand their balance sheet further with additional purchase of MBS beyond the 1.25 T. Plus, Congress will undoubtedly extend the 8000$ tax credit,... The planners are going all out to prop housing price with perhaps new twists that target high-price range. They know full well of the second tsunami of foreclosure and they have to pull all the tricks from the bag. We'll wait and see.
ac, riddle me this: why is the biggest bump in the highest-priced sector of San Diego homes?
HousingTracker.net | Median Home Asking Price & Inventory Data for San Diego, California
renterinNYC (profile) wrote on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 6:22 pm
like faber says, standards of living in cities outside USA are increasingly closing the gap with USA cities. there's no need to be a martyr with globalization. if you realize you are being abused and taken for granted either minimize what the system takes from you or consider leaving for greener pastures imho.
I don't expect fundamental changes in human nature or an aristocracy that suddenly renounces its wealth and holdings. It's hard to compete with an amoral and mathematically efficient ethical system, and that strategy dominates the game to an ever-larger degree as time goes on.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
I doubt it. That is unless an asteroid hits the planet.
"Bought house Dec 2005- 30 yr fixed, 20% dwn, 6.375 rate- local jumbo in phoenix. mortgage $510k-"
You haven't mentioned the servicer, at least that I have seen.
I am going to take a guess and say BofA is the servicer?
Just a WAG, but they used to love the 30 year jumbo product.
If that is the case, they would still have that loan on their balance sheet.
Remember, too, they don't know you from Adam, so statistically you will only be there another 6 years according to their models.
Chinese watermelon sausage - Boing Boing
"instead of getting on the treadmill for more more more. I see more and more of my Gen X peers doing it."
that's 100% myself. i have the treadmill at home! lol, simply put, the rat race doesn't make any sense when you come to realize that our generation will probably work till we drop. so... it's a race to nowhere. why not minimize it as much as possible! and basically, retire while being young (if your very basics are met and if you are lucky enough to not like catching up with the jones).
for example, the $ i save on FICA taxes, i consider it is saving me (or providing me) 2 months of extra life per year (the life i would have to spent in a desk to pay for FICA, for which i would get
... so why was i doing it? cause i didn't know better for once... and cause i romanticized the notion of working as hard as possible bla bla bla... not i'm pragmatic.
Starving Artist wrote:
Sounds like the '70s in California. When a two dollar an hour crap job would buy you a basement apartment and all the ten-dollar lids you could physically blow -- and you could deal a little on the side to supplement yer income. Works well until you get older and parts of your body start failing.
Not talking against it -- but nearly all the "drop-outs" I've seen lately only make it because they deserve or scam public support in some ways. Nearly all.
"The only imminent foreclosure that I am familiar with was the result of multiple cash-out refis on top of declining income."
You've just described our Federal gov'ts financial position.
Cinco-X wrote:
O! but you wish you could!
You know, with all the stimulus and printing in place, I don't see what could bring the market (housing or stock) down in the short term. What is there that can possibly bring assets back down to earth. I thought the lousy BLS survey last month might slow the rally, but no. Maybe Ben and Timmay won?
Starving Artist wrote:
Yep, I'm a gen x'er and I'm doing it. We should organize and 'liberate' people from cubes. That could be fun.
12 percentile:
What part of Albany do you live in? I live off exit 9 on the Northway.
CR "I can't remember a real estate bubble that didn't end with most people hating real estate ... I don't think we ever got to that stage here - yet."
That's the stage I'm waiting for. The bubble took us way higher than I ever figured housing prices could go, and took quite a few years to unfold. I expect we'll see the same on the way down, where the bust drags on for several more years and sees prices fall further than most people expect. I'm saving my money and patiently waiting.
So what I want to know is who is doing all this buying? I heard that the condo market in Miami is very hot but they cut the prices in half and the buyers are mostly from out of the country. How do any of this help our economy?
"We should organize and 'liberate' people from cubes."
a chinese friend of mine is doing it! biking around china and telling all his friends to quit the cube. actually, it was a friend of mine years ago (while i was trying to be a high achiever) that gave me the skinny. same age, he plans to work seriously only from 45 on. i 100% agree that with USA demographics, return on labor are probably not gonna be good till then.
"Trillion", how quaint.
$592,000,000,000,000 notional, mostly held by the JPM and GS...
If the bubble is 1%, that's a writedown of 5 thousand, nine hundred billion.
LEH paper claims are going for 37% of notional. (CDS netted out much less)
But GS and JPM, they're so much smarter than those idiots...
Let's say twice as smart. If their paper is worth 74%, that's only paper losses of about 150 thousand billion dollars.
Nah the big C- and they did admit it was still on their books!
Statistics, shamistics!
First cramdown accomplished- now on to the rest of my debt!
This is going to be fun- the best part is the loan mod person was talking about how this would preserve my fico sscore!!!
I had to stifle a laugh- like I care anymore!
Someday this war's gonna end...
zpaiss wrote:
If they are outside the country its a direct exchange of currency - considering how we run massive current account deficits & they are returning currency - it helps. Not enough but some.
I bought my house almost 15 years ago. If I add up all the PITI payments to date, I could still sell my house and have a 30% gain. And that's after a 25% drop in prices from the peak (N. NJ).
I've not only lived rent free, I been paid to own. That could only happen in a fake eCONomy.
By all rights, houses should fall at least another 30%.
shibbo wrote:
And well you should. Keep in mind that when an investment class fall out of favor, it will take longer than any one lifetime to return to favor. Don't expect any profit. But invest because you need it or because it 'pencils'.
Right on ndk. My wife is asian and one of the benefits is a back door if one needs it. As far as NYC goes they can shove it. I was born there and thank g_d my parents got out. Great place to eat but that is it.
Interesting...One additional variable is ZIRP driving investors into RE.
After the 80s stock market scare a lot of that money came into housing helping create the bubble. How much of the $millions JTR is seeing is fromthe stock market, CDs, 401k, ...?
Angry Saver wrote:
In some parts of the country they very well might - once the foreclosure wave works its way out on to the market.
Bob Dobbs wrote:
That's why I'm in Canuckistan - health care
Seriously though, I've paid lots of taxes, and I do a little work, enough to cover rent. I'm still a little cash flow negative this year, so I might get a contract somewhere doing computer stuff, or maybe something completely random just to see what it's like doing something different. It would be nice to put away a little more for retirement. Other than that, no complaints. I've made about $500 over the last couple of months selling junk I don't need on Craigslist.
Not that I'm interested in being a bum or a leech - in fact I abhor that mentality. I'd be perfectly happy working 2-3 days a week, but those opportunities just don't exist.
The US is about to find out what the brits found out after Atlee raped the country...we will find out what a brain drain is as the future producers and innovators move to greener pastures.
If you really want to drop out, I'd learn sustainable farming.
The funny thing is, she is excited about leaving Japan because the ossification and comfort there bother her.
She's been to America several times -- including NYC, which she thought was more vibrant than Tokyo, a sentiment with which I strongly disagreed -- and I've gone out of my way to expose her to the grimy underbelly. It doesn't faze her in the least. She finds the chaotic, apoplectic thrashing invigorating in some bizarre way. I find her invigoration seriously amusing.
The relationship dynamics are really comfortable, much more so than with North American women. It just seems to work for us, thus far at least, and I'm very glad it worked for you too.
I think we're much more likely to end up in America in the fullness of time, but who knows. I'm forcing her to learn to cook tsukemen either way, and I'll do the guacamole and Mexican food wherever I go.
Well if I was really a
... I 'd guess this RE frenzy is manufactured to try & keep underwater J6P who is thinking of sending in the keys sending in his mortgage payment instead.
That is if I was a
...
The house trade seems to make sense. A cash buyer takes it from the bank at an extremely low price, then sells the same house to a low end buyer that will use the 8k in government subsidy as a downpayment and borrow from the FHA. Instead of this thing slowing down, I actually think it could accelerate wildly until the FHA collapses in on itself. The banks are happy as they don't really hold the risk (its our pension money that's being stolen or didn't you know?)
This trade would work on any property as long as you can find the sucker to dig themselves into debt for up to US$240k (where the $8k is a 3% downpayment). Roll on the good times until the fun really hit the fan in 2011 as those buying lose their low end jobs and foreclose. Obama is storing up a whole lot of trouble for the 2012 re-election year!!
rb writes: " If you really want to drop out, I'd learn sustainable farming.
Client friend of mine has two video rental locations. 20% of his business comes from on line sales.
He moved here from Oregon. He owns a 10 acre home and self sestaining farm, food, livestock, eggs, chickens, etc.
He has it figured out.
Did anyone notice at the end of the article it says the realtor stopped paying on her mortgage in JANUARY and the bank still has not gotten to her!!!! That is 9 months!!!
"So what I want to know is who is doing all this buying? I heard that the condo market in Miami is very hot but they cut the prices in half and the buyers are mostly from out of the country. How do any of this help our economy?"
heard a lot is coming from latinoamerica (argentina). believe it or not, even in a serial savings massacres, there is still some cash from there to protect. asked around and more than the return on capital they care about the return of capital.
"Right on ndk. My wife is asian and one of the benefits is a back door if one needs it. As far as NYC goes they can shove it. I was born there and thank g_d my parents got out. Great place to eat but that is it."
nice back door!!! cannot agree more with NYC
renterinNYC wrote:
There have been several comments on this site that imply that cell phones are "expensive". Has anyone actually checked prices in several years? They are cheaper than landlines, if you are at all frugal about using them. I've been Cell-phone only since 2004, and never paid more than about $30/mo that entire time.
Starving Artist wrote:
There's no question that if I could get the health care for me and my wife at a reasonable cost, I'd ditch the job I have now and take something else that paid less and I enjoyed more -- even part-time. I've actually got enough money stashed away that all I have to do is preserve it; I've got the house paid for. I should be able to slack. But the system's rigged in the States; make the wrong move, and they can take it all away. Health costs are the easiest route. So I stay tied to the job I've got largely for the insurance and because there isn't anything else right now.
If the insurance was taken care of, you'd see a lot of olders taking "fun" jobs away from the younger types. In a cold minute. Then they'd really hate us
.
I just got a hold of an "afterhours broker" in Las Vegas and bought 5 houses.
I can't wait to see them.
ody, "There have been several comments on this site that imply that cell phones are "expensive". Has anyone actually checked prices in several years? They are cheaper than landlines, if you are at all frugal about using them. I've been Cell-phone only since 2004, and never paid more than about $30/mo that entire time."
i use skype, have a fair amount of long international calls (friends and family). cannot beat it!
Interesting post here:
Fund My Mutual Fund: Zachary Karabell: Deficits and the Chinese Challenge
Will China strike a bargain with an insolvent US, in return for more leverage?
It crossed my mind the other day, that writing off some of the Chinese treasuries could get the US some breathing room, so it's cool to see a confirming article.
I just got a hold of an "afterhours broker" in Las Vegas and bought 5 houses.
You'd better hope the (short) seller doesn't fail to deliver at T+3.
"If the insurance was taken care of, you'd see a lot of olders taking "fun" jobs away from the younger types. In a cold minute. Then they'd really hate us. "
no way i'd hate you for doing what you are happy doing instead of having to waste part of your life due to a f*ck up health care system. that's what i hate.
The current demand is a mile wide and an inch deep.
Just understand there have to be as many knife catchers on the way down as there were bandwagon hoppers on the way up. That's how it works.
Bobb Dobbs,
Universal health care could cause many to consider retirement or part time work. There's no reason people need to work 40 years. What gets me is that most people work that long and STILL end up with nothing but social security.
Funny but spot on incisive observation!
renterinNYC wrote:
That's not the way it works in countries with Universal Healthcare, so I don't think you have to worry about it too much. Healthcare costs may be one factor preventing some 55-60 year-olds from taking the plunge into a 'fun' job, like starting a new company or diving into a completely unproven field/company/occupation. Most likely for many they'll be somewhat risk adverse for more mundane reasons, like house payments, family commitments, and a life they've spent 30 years building.
But don't worry; I'm sure the young will come up with plenty of other reasons to hate you.
ac wrote:
You keep talking like that and you won't - some one here will buy the flip off you before you get there.
agree noob, plenty of people get stuck in a job they don't like cause of health care benefits and would be able to do sth more entrepreneurial if that issue weren't there.
Find It. Flip It. Forget It.
dryfly wrote:
Depends. Were they bought on a tip from a friend who's brother knew a guy that played golf with Donald Trump's assistant?
If so, I'm there.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Good point... so the trillion dollar question, is this a bull trap??
noob goldberg wrote:
Not really. Wait until you get there. A lot of us only have 'other payments' because we're still too caught up in the rat race and as we know even if you win you are still a rat.
As it always was, is and always should be.
Rob Dawg wrote:
Not at all, unless you count the taxpayers - the next generation of them, anyway - as the knifecatchers. Someone is shoving the sharp end of the knife into their hand.
Is Congress really going to extend (and possibly expand) the First Time Home Renters tax credit? After all the talk about fiscal responsibility, which of course was just talk, but they have to disguise the giveaways better nowadays. I don't expect the Senate and House will be able to agree on a Health-care bill either. We will be lucky to get an UE extension and debt ceiling through the Congress at this point in the session. Remember, members have to get back home to crank up the re-election effort.
renterinNYC wrote:
Oh I completely agree with that statement. It's been the one thing that I've brought up everytime this issue arises in real life; Canada benefited tremendously from the USA's fixation on forcing huge healthcare costs on its corporations. While I feel bad that we Canucks are shooting ourselves in the foot by saying this, you yanks would be miles ahead if you simply removed that ball and chain from the entrepreneur's neck.
How do any of this help our economy?
it also has to help with sustaining the local property tax base, as well as the local surviving businesses, I would think. Who cares where the money comes from?
"Not really. Wait until you get there. A lot of us only have 'other payments' because we're still too caught up in the rat race and as we know even if you win you are still a rat."
totally agree dry, there are some races (& fights) not worth winning.
noob goldberg wrote:
I can check the stats again, but the last time I looked, we were miles ahead of Canada.
OT, but Hoisington has their 3Q review out. Warning: PDF
Quarterly Review and Outlook - Third Quarter 2009
Rajesh, fiscal responsibility is concerning to an extremely small percentage. We'll get all that stuff you mentioned and then some. The health care package will be much more expensive than effective, though.
dryfly wrote:
It's interesting you say that, as I'm watching it with my father right now. He's in his mid-50's, he's owned his own company since I was a tot, and he's starting to toy with the idea of starting over doing something completely different. I certainly don't put it past anyone, and I hope I still have the spark to start round two (or three or five) when I hit my late 40's early 50's.
However, I see the pull within him. He doesn't have to work too hard, so he spends a lot more time with his grandkids, on his hobbies, and anything else that strikes his fancy. If he started again from scratch he'd be back into that young-man's game of 70 hour weeks and building up a clientèle and a name, so I think he's still torn. It's fascinating to watch the internal struggle.
I think the point I was trying to make earlier is that those who recognize that they're rats and contemplate starting over again are probably outliers compared to those who take the safe bet until they're retired.
Edit: But you're right, I'm not there yet, so I defer to those who are...
I have a lot of respect for CR's analysis.
But it's not characteristic for him to make a sweeping generalization that "The real estate market has gone crazy" based on isolated local market reports like those he has cited, especially Jim the Realtor.
The real estate market hasn't gone crazy. Just some people have, and maybe some neighborhoods have.
I doubt there is any of the C-S top 20 markets where the data will support that the market's gone crazy for any period of time longer than a few days.
Rajesh wrote:
Sorry, didn't mean to strike a nerve.
EDIT: Canada has plenty of problems, and my comments re: health-care were specifically focused on the jump-start it would give the entrepreneurs when concerns over dealing with the extra overhead costs from coverage are removed.
"I can check the stats again, but the last time I looked, we were miles ahead of Canada. "
if people weren't into wage slavery in usa nor into catching up with the jones (i think they go together)... maybe they wouldn't be so much into prozac, nor stressed, anxiety, crappy sleeping... maybe even less obese, more leisure, better relationships with family and friends. ok... maybe i went too far?
the typical american has 2 weeks of holidays, why people accept that?
rich wrote:
But you have to admit that the crazy anecdotes are starting to pile up...
Away from the glare of our potemkin stock market, some rats are starting to chew into the paper mache facade erected by Komrad Ben and his cronies in the Fedburo.
Muni bond yields have shot up for the past several days, signaling credit problems ahead for bankrupt towns, states and counties. Until today, corporate bond yields were starting to creep upwards again as well.
Perhaps just a small disturbance in the force ... or something else altogether.
"It definitely seems crazy. "
I've seen this sentiment in several places. But I suspect these cash buyers are investors that are acting rationally, and not speculating on a flip. Maybe somebody has figured out a scam, a way to take money and dump losses on the taxpayer? I find this hard to believe it has much to do with the $8K tax credit.
What does Calculated Risk think is going on?
This is Congress. It has nothing to do with responsibility and everything to do with having enough bodies in the building to pass legislation. We are at mid-October, the health-care bill is just getting to the Senate floor. Extension of the tax credit is still just a talking point. You have two or three weeks to get this stuff done and everyone wants to put their two cents in first.
The past few days, we've been in a euphoria bubble, in that any good news gets blown up while all the significant negative news gets swept away. I've noticed these euphoria bubbles tend to fade faster lately, and come and go fairly quickly.
The big question I'm asking is why they need to create these brief little bubbles. Why can't they just play reality smooth.
There's a reason. Things are happening under the surface. They need to get people real happy before they break.
Don't buy the euphoria. 30 days from now, it may feel a lot different. Keep your feet on the ground and trust what you feel.
Speaking only for myself, I believe there are two forces here:
1) Investors are acting on expectations of high inflation that have been deliberately provoked by the Fed/Treasury team.
2) Very low real interest rates(or the perception thereof) tend to make asset prices of all sorts soar, and a currency drop relative to other currencies. We're seeing irrational gains in commodities, equities, and bonds, so why not in real estate as well?
The ride makes a lot of sense. I just don't want to get on it, because the last station is also pretty obvious, and I'm not interested in playing until then.
I find this hard to believe it has much to do with the $8K tax credit.
you only qualify for the tax credit if you are single and earn less than $75K/year, or $150K/year for a couple.
rich wrote:
Don't say that. I'm using the market euphoria to balance out what I'm feeling internally.
If I gotta trust what I'm feeling internally I'll need to take some serious uppers.
This feels too much like the fall of 1999/spring of 2000. It's painful to watch this rally from the sidelines but my gut tells me it's too good to be true and the risk of a sudden downdraft is very high.
Never underestimate the Fed's power. Never.
What you've been seeing is the Bernanke Put.
FHA requires a 3% down payment but the 8K can be used as the down payment, hence the return of the no-money down home renter. In a year, these people will be underwater (it they don't start out underwater) and wondering if they should keep paying their mortgage or rent a smaller house down the street for 20% less.
I hope so because you and many others your age will likely have to do to keep ahead for better standard of living. I'm just a few yrs younger than your Dad and have been doing solo consulting for early stage software startups for 15 yrs. Am still loving the game and recently closed 2 new clients - one in Europe.
Extension of the tax credit is still just a talking point.
That bill has 29 co-sponsors. That's quite a talking point.
rb wrote:
It's a done deal. At this stage, Congressmen are just trolling for campaign dollars. When they have enough, they'll pass it.
km4 wrote:
I'm glad you're still finding the challenge and excitement in life. I come from a family of people that work with their hands (I'm currently a bit of a black sheep for taking a desk job), but my father saw what his kids did, and I think it got him to wondering if it wasn't too late to really step outside of his comfort zone. I really hope, even if it starts out as a volunteering or something, that he decides to follow that hunch. I'd like him to get to a similar place as you.
EDIT: and congrats on the new clients; it's good to hear good news in this economy...
1 currency now -yogi, regarding NYC and "There are no gated communities"...
Buildings with doormen are the vertical NYC equivalent of a gated community.
The bill by itself is going nowhere. The only hope is that it gets bundled into some Christmas tree legislation but all the wrapping paper is being used by the Health-care bill.
Watching the Senate in action is like watch paint dry, except that paint does eventually dry but Senate debate goes on and on.
mp wrote:
Yup - direct descendant of the Greenspan Put.
Rajesh wrote:
60 votes will dry that paint pretty fast.
Rajesh wrote:
Don't be fooled, Rajesh. It's not an accident. Like I say, the lobbyists are rustling up dollars to get it passed. When they've paid the toll, Congress will find a way to pass it... unless they discover they can get even more by voting for something else instead.
CR, I don't know if you actually believe that the real estate market is hot everywhere, but I think it is worth pointing out in your posts on housing that the REAL ESTATE MARKET IS SLOW IN MANY METRO AREAS. I work with real estate agents everyday and the entire NE is sow. Just because a few crashed areas are seeing activity does not mean the entire housing market is.
A long time ago I read a book, not the only one, that stated that America had been changed into a nation of addicts on purpose in order to move merchandise.
The DOW, the denial, the failure to calculate risks, all seems part of this.
But really, what does this have to do with watching American Idol?
American Idol is cheap crack for middle aged tv junkies.
Not a goddamned thing.
See??
I rest my case. Liz? I'm ready for the bar.
Blackwaterwannabe wrote:
On my fourth shot of whiskey.
The whole country runs on lies.
Most people run on lies, even to themselves.
It all runs on lies now.
How many people actually stop and think? In an atmosphere of total quiet - without distractions, for 15 minutes? How many could with out being distracted by the need to fill their mind with something? Pick up the cell phone? Text?
We are constantly being stimulated or looking to be. We need distraction. How much is our life a cultivation of the rush? What is a bubble? A collective binge.
And the perpetual drive for yield in a low interest rate environment continues.
This ends in tears.
love the drama, i'm watching the wire.
Two separate things happening
1 is first time buyers grabbing anything they can afford before they get laid off. That way they can string out the UE payments by defaulting and squatting without becoming actual bandos. You get an extra bonus if also have a lot of other debt you can default on too and just go on a cash basis for a couple of years until your credit recovers. This is how the $15 hr receptionist at work explained her strategy.
2 is people who sold into the rally and now need a place to stash cash before the markets belly up.
Neither 1 nor 2 say anything good about the economy for the next couple of years.
Well, yeah.
"is first time buyers grabbing anything they can afford before they get laid off. That way they can string out the UE payments by defaulting and squatting without becoming actual bandos. You get an extra bonus if also have a lot of other debt you can default on too and just go on a cash basis for a couple of years until your credit recovers. This is how the $15 hr receptionist at work explained her strategy."
well, good for her. to a stupid system, the rational response.
Broward,
You're a freaking genius. But you sound like a 16 year old who just discovered that coach was nailing his girlfriend, the cheerleader, behind his back. You want paradise? You the suffering sensitive gothic cutter type? Man, you make me want to reach thru this screen and smack you. Suck it up or go off the freakin grid
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 7:58 pm
A long time ago I read a book, not the only one, that stated that America had been changed into a nation of addicts on purpose in order to move merchandise.
Yes. It is not really evidence of a vast conspiracy (though there are and were a lot of complicit parties)... just inevitability. Remove the notion that economic efficiency is superior to human purpose and that the most optimal choice among known alternatives is a moral decision, and society would change forever. It will have to reach a point of spectacle where the irony of treating a human being as capital or raw material is obvious as the nose on your face before we have any hope of a better or at least a more human system. Again I am not holding my breath.
Let me regale you with what I found on about my Mom's best friend's can't lose investment. Turns out her BIL, who is already a corporate board member and very well off, somehow (dont ask me how.) got her to take almost her entire life savings, and invest it in a "guaranteed" return (as in, here is the % return youll get, told upfront) real estate investment. My mom was offered the same deal from her friend, and I told her to run like hell. Thankfully, she gracefully declined the offer. I asked her to ask her friend if she had ever asked if she could get her principal investment back if she wanted it back. She never found out if that was possible. I told her, I bet you she can't.
Turns out, this was either a super-leveraged slumlord apartment rental scheme, or a mixture of that AND ponzi scheme. The apartments do exist, and their suits pending against the man for failing to upkeep, renting to illegals with intent to defraud (i think), etc. Apparently the early investors got paid good returns for a while, as did my Mom's friend. Which was when she tried to get my Mom to tag along. Then the returns dried up, then the principal was gone.
Multiple suits against the business owner running the scheme now, for the principal losses. Dont know if my mom's friend's BIL will be ensnared, but did find that he was making money off bringing in new investors. Didnt know that originally but just sounded bad from day 1. Sounds much worse now that all the investors have been bilked.
Such a lovely thing, these real estate bubbles. Too bad we can't detect them while they are inflating. Better to just clean up afterwards.
nova wrote:
I do a couple of hours per day, at least.
I spend perhaps 3 or 4 hours a day with other people and the rest of the time I sit quietly, sometimes reading, sometimes watching the beach.
Sometimes I walk several miles per day.
Yes, but the sidewalk, streets, and parks are public. Private armed guards are very rare. In hard times, impoverished people show up in droves every week, and there is no legal way to stop them. There will always tend to be extreme wealth disparity even if the government declares Communism. The high taxes try to address it somewhat but the upper crust moves capital and controls jobs.
I'd like to know where in the US the legal system tries to distribute wealth as equitably as in NYC. Partly why homeless people come.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Oh Prudent Bear. What will you come up with next?
yagij wrote:
I think 'Patient Bear' better sums our collective attitude:
http://www.bremund.com/fun/patient_bear.jpg
nova wrote:
The United States is a lie.
I often wonder if it was always a lie.
Did it become a lie in the past ten years?
Fifteen?
Was it really the bubble?
Perhaps the bubble is a result of the lie.
Will it ever be the United States again?
I doubt it.
Luckily, I anticipated it well enough to avoid having children.
Broward,
It is all a lie an always has been. Socrates drank the hemlock because? So freaking what. Deal with it.
Does the name Trump appear on the brochure?
Assuming these stories from the realtors is true, and I have no reason to believe otherwise, you will find investment funds at the bottoms of these "cash buyers", and in those funds you will find an enormous number of former CD and government-bond holders who are being squeezed by the rate collapse.
These people can now wave good-bye to their principle during the next 4 to 5 years.
Good one yogi! But no. It would have failed more spectacularly that way.
broward, existence is suffering. the universe is a casino.
yet I'm still here, and not because I believe I can beat the odds. you're still here too.
What are you so upset about, Nova?
I'm the moron who worked hard for thirty years and was cheating out of almost everything for being honest.
I've worked with so many pieces of shit over the past few years.
So many liars, saboteurs, schemers.
You're lucky, dude.
You can pretend you never saw any of it.
broward,
I am sorry, well sort of. You are one of the people I always look forward to reading. I really think you are a genius. You sound like they have won. They beat you down. Fuck them. Take some pride in walking away. Don't freakin lament it.
The real problem with the US is it hasn''t shifted into a complete piece-of-shit yet.
There's still a lot of good people and I run into them over and over.
So there's still this strange sick middle ground where you can pretend it's okay, sometimes.
I wish it would the country would just hurry up and change into a full-blown total piece-of-shit so I could be sure of the outcome.
who is broward?
To each his own broward,
I hear that a lot these days, thank god I didn't have any kids...
Only thing that makes life worth living for the Mrs. and me. We waited 8 years before having our first...I am glad we waited, it gave us a perspective a lot of married couples who go out and get married and have kids immediately don't. But for all the free time, and all night philosophy quests...that life was empty and full of pursuits that were in actuality an attempt to mark time. Maybe the country goes to hell, maybe my kids won't have the life I or my parents had. It does scare me, but I wouldn't trade my memories of holding my boys for the first time, for anything.
The US began with a tax revolt. It got bloody, but King George eventually settled his title claims with a steep haircut. The new title holders didn't really want to encourage the Jubilee idea. Andrew Jackson fought off the old oligarchy's last adventure, no doubt motivated by the outrageous British policy of outlawing the ownership of his private property.
The US Supreme Court, in accordance with the Constitution, ordered Jackson to uphold their decision on other claims to title. "Fuck off and die" said the jackass. They couldn't stop him, because he had rallied popular support against the banker oligarchy.
Armed government agents forcibly evicted thousands of perfectly legal claimants and wrote up new titles.
"Possession is nine-tenths of the law" is much more accurate numerically than a bank holding company's asset statement. Call their bluff. Down with the house of cards. The Judiciary can sort out Constitutional claims, and Congress has been thrown out before. Obama is no jackass.
Full disclosure: I have no debt and no bunker even though I have enough dollars to claim a mcmansion. What good does mass foreclosure of underwater homes do me? I could care less if the subway workers and teachers demand a bonus clawed from bank windfall profits. I'd feel safer using a bank run by the Post Office than by Jamie Dimon anyway.
renterinNYC wrote:
Is this a deep philosophical question or something?
Tonight is "Deep Thoughts Night" on Calculated Risk.
sorry! couldn't find any post by broward, so was wondering...
Tonight's topics: Bellybutton lint and disappearing socks? Is there a link?
mp wrote:
I suppose I should see what's on TV then. Looking into my mind is like staring into a muddy puddle on your driveway.
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 8:28 pm
There's still a lot of good people and I run into them over and over.
So there's still this strange sick middle ground where you can pretend it's okay, sometimes.
I wish it would the country would just hurry up and change into a full-blown total piece-of-shit so I could be sure of the outcome.
renterinNYC wrote:
You might have accidentally 'ignored' him. Check your list.
broward,
Nothing new about the lies, Just got a lot worse the last 20 years in my opinion. Scams can only flourish with weak people.
check your ignore list...make sure broward isn't on it...found some people on mine today, and I never ignore anyone.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
I thought it began because smugglers didn't want to compete with cheap legal imports.
noob goldberg wrote:
LoL! That is us.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
Bullshit. Scams flourish in the midst of strong people who haven't become so jaded as to completely question the motives of every single person they come into contact with. Scammers make the world a dark untrusting place, and if there is any justice in the universe there is a special circle of hell reserved for them.
mp wrote:
Like Samurai composing poetry before committing suicide. Pondering on the perfect cherry blossom leaf seemed more relevant as one faces self-extermination.
Is that the circle where you have to listen to whiny protest songs from the 60s forever?
If anyone plans on exterminating my ass, I suggest they call the air force.
Anyone can be scammed that is why I used the word flourish. The weak go willingly, we have a lot of weak people now days.
Rajesh quoted noob glodberg - 5:22 pm
noob goldberg wrote:
you yanks would be miles ahead
Rajesh responded
I can check the stats again, but the last time I looked, we were miles ahead of Canada.
mock turtle jumps in
canadians are miles ahead
higher median income
universal healthcare (which makes their median income effectively higher
longer life expectancy
Median household income - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&ct=res&cd=1&ved=0CAwQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.unitednorthamerica.org%2Fsimdiff.htm&rct=j&q=life+expectancy+canada+versus+united+states&ei=4XzWSrarO4jAsQP--v3fAg&usg=AFQjCNFGz8XvyihcZRBwG5BXKNL61EiX0Q
Well, I wrote some more in my ongoing serial novel about the collapse of the US economy. When I started wrtiting it I thought we were almost there. Now, that DOW 10,000 is messing everything up.
sample
"Yeah. Squirrels too. Deer sometimes. But you have to have a lot of dough to get them to pay attention." They didn't get it. "So you were telling me who you were looking for?" Everything had been okay up until now. All of a sudden the vibe had changed. I noticed Roger taking another look at his watch. What? He had a dental appointment? Way off, at the edge of my hearing, I heard movement. Someone, no someones were coming. Coming very quietly too. "Gardener, it's like this. We were hired to find a lost kid."
more? American Apocalypse
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 8:39 pm
Scammers make the world a dark untrusting place, and if there is any justice in the universe there is a special circle of hell reserved for them.
At least the scammer is what we might call "consciously evil". With "conscious" in there, we know there is something to work with and some willpower behind it.
Vonbek777 wrote:
It's just beside that circle, close enough so you can still hear them. In this circle, it rains all the time and the only shelter is a tent. The tent is full of holes and there is a plague of mosquitoes the likes of which the world has never seen.
EDIT: I should add that I hate camping.
Well, today was the first step in the cramdowns for my personal debt, the cramdown Tanta doubted was possible.
I wish she was here to see it begin, it is a thing of beauty, main street reciprocating wall street's perfidy.
Share and Enjoy, Jamie you are next.
Someday this war's gonna end...
broward wrote:
Bartender - I'll have what he is drinking...
mp wrote:
I stress self-extermination (e.g. suicide). Not murder.
Nova is practicing tough love in an internet chat room. Hi-larious. But I think I get it. Broward has demonstrated genius, zest for living, and known success. Kinda scary to think a guy like that can hit his 50's and implode. Not reassuring for the rest of us on the track of uncertainty.
++++
The Breitbart linked story concerning the second in command of China's military doing a week long tour of our military establishments has me puzzled. More conditions of continued treasury buying? I miss the cold war somedays.
And ... when one C$ buys you two US$, Canadians will be able to save the US real estate market. Would not mind a bit of land that is not permanently snow covered.
"My wife is asian and one of the benefits is a back door if one needs it."
Why hasn't anyone made a dirty joke at your expense for saying something like this?
renterinNYC wrote:
you probably have broward on your ignore list. Go to your settings and review your ignore list - I have inadvertently placed people on it.
Track of uncertainty?
What is there to be uncertain about?
Please, I'd like to know.
If anyone plans on exterminating my ass, I suggest they call the air force.
If you have all that concrete they better use bunker busters.
Hey serious question...does anyone know where the original use of God as a bartender came from?...I have been trying to track down the image to some book or cartoon...but I just keep finding more and more use of it with no logical connection.
Why hasn't anyone made a dirty joke at your expense for saying something like this?
Classy crowd?
Phx Metro RRE stats
Avg days on market 64.
Supply, 4.8 months
Avvg price $175,000.00 SFR
42,000 properties listed and active (down from 56,000)
Ask vs sold 97% of asking price
Looks like there are buyers here too.
Info from Arizona MLS. can not link due to copy right.
broward wrote:
Lie is a strong word - I go with 'myth'... similar but not intentionally malevolent untruth.
And - 'yes' it always was... consider the constitution & declaration of independence... all that 'all men are created equal' stuff except those men picking cotton [and all women for that matter].
You can conservatively figure that global stock markets have increased in value by about $10 trillion since March.
Data and gut instinct tell you that probably not more than $2-3 trillion is real equity. The rest is derivatives or leveraged, and it's concentrated in fairly few hands. It's hot money.
I'm not denying there is a Bernanke put. But it's not big enough to prop up $7-8 trillion of hot money, in markets all over the world.
If the U.S. market had rallied faster than the rest, it would signal the Bernanke put is strong. In fact, it's been just the opposite. The hot money actually prefers to go abroad. Borders matter to real investors but not hot money traders.
There were fundamentals supporting the market for 3-4 months and then there was the Bernanke put supporting it for some time.
Now, it's just traders on leverage on steroids. Watch and see.
I posted the link to that article earlier...I thought it was very interesting, the beginnings of something new perhaps...time will tell.
broward, i found you on the ignore list, but never ignored you. i share your pessimism, but things actually had improved a lot if you instead of decades go backwards using centuries. so we went from kids dying young while working barefoot in humid coal mines and slavery ... kids & women have it better than they used to, and pseudo-freedom (wage slavery still goes on one way or the other) & internet!.
noob goldberg wrote:
Might be a quarter there - lets poke around.
I believe 7th Fleet has also been bringing Chinese Navy people aboard carriers to observe task force operations.
I see the judge affirmed his ruling in the Massachusetts foreclosure cases - unless the higher courts or legislature fix this, there are a bunch of messed up titles in Massachusetts: Massachusetts Land Court Reaffirms Controversial Ibanez Ruling Invalidating Thousands Of Foreclosures | The Massachusetts Real Estate Law Blog
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
Scams occur irrespective of the intelligence of the scammer or scammee. To identify a scam you have to have a reason to believe that the person has alterior motives, instead of giving them the benefit of a doubt. I believe trust is earned, but if the only solution is to live in a world where I have to be suspicious of everyone until they prove themselves trustworthy, get me out, because that ride sucks.
I'd rather lose money to the odd scammer and give people the benefit of a doubt than live that dark existence.
dryfly wrote:
Owww. Blunt sticks, people, blunt sticks.
what's happening? is everything still
licious?
Well, you know, it's always a good idea to check out a piece of property before you buy it.
"Lie is a strong word - I go with 'myth'... similar but not intentionally malevolent untruth.
And - 'yes' it always was... consider the constitution & declaration of independence... all that 'all men are created equal' stuff except those men picking cotton [and all women for that matter]. "
100% agree. property owners defending their stuff, same old same old.
What if the $8,000.00 credit and 3.5% worked?
Looks like it is. Even if it is cash buyers then reselling to J6P.
Free money works.
Random sale picked from Las Vegas blockshopper
1424 Arlington Heights Street, Las Vegas, Nevada 89110 | BlockShopper Las Vegas
70k on REO on a home that sold for > 100k in 1999!
Yeah, maybe there were 10 offers, but prob half of them were for 50-60k. Small fish bottom feeding is a lot different than a great white feeding frenzy.
When gauging the past with the present...we seem to cherry pick data...I find it better to pretend to be a rich noble from any time period and proceed from there. Roll of the dice today, you could have been born somewhere with stone age conditions still...if you catch my drift...So on that basis, is life better for me today as a rich member of the aristocracy or in some other bygone era....think, think, think. You can also use banker...but alas, in some eras, bankers weren't plentiful or even allowed in public, thus I usually go for an easier target. My take has always been that the present isn't always what it is purported to be, and in fact life in some parts of the past was better for the average nobleman, than today. Remember to factor in hot water to your equations though...easy access to hot water is a big plus!
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Wed, 10/14/2009 - 8:48 pm
Hey serious question...does anyone know where the original use of God as a bartender came from?...I have been trying to track down the image to some book or cartoon...but I just keep finding more and more use of it with no logical connection.
I'm sure it's far older than this, however.
The first thing that came to mind was a certain Quantum Leap episode
Track of uncertainty?
The suspension of rules and accepted norms in every aspect of our society driven by fraud, corruption and blatant manipulation of information. I am uncertain what tomorrow will bring in comparison to my previously accepted reality.
Yeah, So be it.
If you understand, things are just as they are; if you do not understand, things are just as they are.
I'm surprised, genuinely, to hear that mentioned here.
mp,
Why buy used? They are building carriers.
Information Dissemination
josap wrote:
Define 'worked'. It certainly did something.
Much older than that Resistance. But that episode and the Dave Matthews song is what got me on this little quest. I found a little short story from the 1880s suggesting that since God created beer/whiskey he must be a great bartender...far back as I have gone.
RRE prices are down by 50% from bubble days here.
Allot back to 2000 prices.
There may be lower prices in the future, we have a ton of forclosures and yet to be forclosed. My guess is things will remain interesting through 2010 at least.
I know, I know.
And they're going to use them to deliver Toyotas, right?
Vonbek777 wrote:
A relative who happens to be a preacher informed me that alcohol consumption, even excessive consumption, is perfectly biblical. The first miracle performed by Jesus was to change water into wine, and this was after the entire wedding party was already completely blitzed.
If we weren't meant to consume alcohol, I'm sure he would have chosen a different venue to display his power.
What does China need? Resources. How are resources moved?
Who in the last century tried to control the Pacific? Why?
noob
Worked, as in got people / investors to buy houses. Removed available inventory from the market (not to say there isn't more on the way),
Sales are happening, loans being made, vacants being occupied, window coverings being bought.
Don't know if the loans will stay current or the lawns watered a year from now - but what the Fed wanted to happen is happening.
I was joking.
As we all know, the real purpose of an aircraft carrier is to haul bulk commodities.
josap, in nyc prices are back to 2004 levels only
One thing I find interesting is that 3 yrs after a forclosure you can buy again with an FHA loan. If they can keep this puppy going, and prices don't inflate, people who lost their home today can buy it at half price in a few years. And with very little down.
"Worked, as in got people / investors to buy houses. Removed available inventory from the market (not to say there isn't more on the way),"
By socializing the losses on the taxpayer. When the FHA blows a gasket, Barney and Chuckie and Harry and Nancy will be there to shovel billions more of taxpayer money into the crapper.
mp wrote:
How long until Freedom is traded on the CME?
josap wrote:
Agreed. That was just a terrible goal, is all.
Hey Nuke,
New story out about the New York deficit. The comptroller estimates a $4.1 billion deficit up from $3 billion Patterson estimated last month.
N.Y.’s Deficit May Grow to $4.1 Billion, Report Says (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
"The state’s $133.5 billion budget, counting federal aid and revisions since April, is 9.8 percent larger than last year’s. Excluding federal aid, which increased under President Barack Obama’s economic stimulus program, state spending rose 3.4 percent to $86 billion.
In April, Paterson and lawmakers closed a $17.7 billion deficit with $5.1 billion of spending cuts, $5.2 billion of new or increased taxes, $6.2 billion of federal stimulus money and $1.1 billion of one-time revenue, according to tabulations from the Assembly.
Below Projections
New York’s tax revenue from April 1 to Sept. 15 totaled $18.1 billion, or $634.5 million below state projections and $3.6 billion less than a year ago, primarily because personal income tax collections were less than anticipated."
Local news is reporting Patterson will announce measures tomorrow to close the funding gap.
"people who lost their home today can buy it at half price in a few years. And with very little down. "
if they get a new job (when unemployment is hte reason)
mp wrote:
Just like machine tools - want to see if they really can do the speeds & feeds.
Broward you need to be your own boss and create your own job.
So after 30 years sharing the stage and the spotlight in the Allman Brothers, original member Dickie Betts got thrown out on his ass in 2000. They used used lies and bullshit, calling him a loser. He got a band together and hit the road. Most people, even if they owned a bunch of ABB records, had never heard the name of the composer of Jessica, In Memory of Elizabeth Reed, Blue Sky, Les Brers..., and of course Ramblin' Man. They hadn't sold very well since the early '80's. Betts says the record company asked him to write something with a pop beat, as had the Rolling Stones, Pink Floyd, Winwood, etc. Those 'artists' sold out stadiums and got huge corporate sponsorship deals.
He laughed at them. He knew they didn't think he was worth killing. So now he tours small theaters and prints his own CD's. He opens with a ten-minute instrumental, and usually closes with a 20 minute Eliz. Reed. I've seen about 20 shows since 2004. When there is a sound problem, he stops the show until it gets fixed. No one ever boos. Not once has the show ended without the entire audience cheering wildly, even non-hippies in their 50's jumping up and down shouting.
He's never said a bad word against the Allman Brothers. There is no bitterness in his music, but no capitulation, other than obliging the crowd with Ramblin' Man for an encore. He doesn't preach like Bono or McCartney, and pays band members a salary. He flies, they ride the bus. But still no corporate sponsors.
"Local news is reporting Patterson will announce measures tomorrow to close the funding gap. "
for really scary budget gaps check out hte finance report of nyc. nyc and nys pensions liabilities are just mind blowing and unplayable imho. unless the health care benefits burden is shifted to the feds (that can print $ to pay for them)
I downloaded some Dickie Betts today. Even paid for it.
renterinNYC wrote:
I am well aware of them. I suspect they will kick the can by massaging the actuarial assumptions to make things look better than they are hoping for the magic market to make the fund whole. It won't end well.
If you don't see him in Frederick or Falls Church in December you will lose trillions. Check out "Live at The Odeon- Cleveland, -04" or "The Official Bootleg, 06". But the band is even tighter now.
State Theater? I will check it out.
Dead thread, but this is an excellent point that I hadn't considered, Rich. Thanks.
ndk...
1) "Investors are acting on expectations of high inflation that have been deliberately provoked by the Fed/Treasury team"
yeah, seems like the Fed is encouraging inflation expectations, which seems kind of absurd to me, by many smart people think that way.
2) "Very low real interest rates(or the perception thereof) tend to make asset prices of all sorts soar"
Look at the history or asset prices and interest rates in Japan. "Tend" does not work when peak credit inflation is hit.
These investors will be next in line for a massive government bailout.