The company, which owns a bank that will continue to operate while it is in court, is in negotiations with lenders, bondholders and the Federal Deposit Insurance Company that will result in a filing by the end of October at the latest, the source said.
How can the FDIC not be seizing a bank that is going into bankruptcy? Does that not kinda defeat the purpose of the FDIC if the bank is broke and can still operate?
According to Maggiano, the Treasury will offer a schedule of financial incentives to servicers for negotiating short sales or deeds in lieu of foreclosure for the most troubled borrowers in their portfolio that can’t obtain a modification. That plan, too, will come with a streamlined application for fast action, and it will put caps on how much of a payout can go to lesser lien holders who waive claims to a short sale or deed-in-lieu property.
Maybe a 100 billion or so is more than they (FDIC) want to deal with?
TBTF becomes Too Big To Shallow? (Bowchicka-bowow!)
.
Edit: I must be beat, but I can see how easily pr0n is taken in a new, entrepreneurial direction...
He (Simmons) stated that of the most recent 100 large oil field projects, only about 8 had met or exceeded their projected production rate.
A recent example is Thunderhorse, in the Gulf of Mexico. I am informed by a reliable industry source, who says he has seen the data, that Thunderhorse went from 200,000 bpd of crude oil to 60,000 bpd in one year (note that you need to differentiate between crude oil and barrels of oil equivalent in production reports).
This thing will be drawn out as long as possible by banks and the gov't to prevent any type of "wave of defaults" that many of us have been anticipating. Their will be no wave, just a slowly rising tide as the ice caps melt.
This is not extend and pretend. This is extend to minimize losses.
How can the FDIC not be seizing a bank that is going into bankruptcy? Does that not kinda defeat the purpose of the FDIC if the bank is broke and can still operate?
Got pigged, but the holding company going bankrupt doesn't necessarily mean seizure of the bank, it seems. Lehman Brothers Bank (now Aurora), GMAC Bank. Don't know how this works, just that it has happened.
Now if they'd just write these interest-only modifications at the Fed Funds rate we might be able to drive the delinquency rate to just about zero. They can even have 25 basis points to cover costs if they want.
They keep this up, I might have to revise my expectations for a spike up in the USD on the back of liquidating oil inventories. Still, they do not move fast. Getting any money past the loose change of $75bn they have for HAMP will take a long time, even for a FTHB extension. I'm not convinced that banks like JPM really want this ability, unless it helps them unload loans on the FHA... which is just about out of free capital. I think there is just an instinct to ask for something when you see a crowd gathered around a trough.
This is not extend and pretend. This is extend to minimize losses.
This is extend to postpone losses. Future losses don't come out of current bonuses, as long as you don't do something silly like increase your loss reserves.
Mike_ (profile) wrote on Tue, 10/13/2009 - 12:36 pm
This thing will be drawn out as long as possible to by banks and the gov't to prevent any type of "wave of defaults" that many of us have been anticipating. Their will be no wave, just a slowly rising tide as the ice caps melt.
I agree 100% ; there will be no precipitous negative change in housing or wall street. It will not be allowed by the WH in cahoots with Fed. One thing they can't seem to control is the UE rate.
Yalt, I am not saying that there will not be losses in the future but I dont think it is all about pretending that the losses dont exist to prop up the current business. I really believe that losses will be minimized by "extending" and not allowing the wave to happen. I am sure some tax payers dollars injected along the way will help to minimize the losses as well.
Is it just me, or is government support for short sales, which results in people ultimately being forced to move, one of the craziest, most repugnant ideas yet?
JimPortlandOR
I may be missing the point, but dead bodies can preserve well underwater. You have low temperature, low oxygen, low UV, and silt to cover/protect. I know this because it's used for fine cheese making
Only a couple thousand modifications, really? That's amazing. I think I know a significant percentage of them personally.
As of the beginning of September, only 1.26 percent of trial modifications that had made it through the three-month trial period had become permanent, the report found. Of course, very few of those trial loans had reached their three-month expiration because the program only recently began processing large numbers of applications. As of Sept. 1, the Obama plan had produced 1,711 permanent loan modifications.
The Chief of the Homeowner Preservation Office at the Treasury, Laurie Maggiano, released information on the Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives (HAFA)
HAFA is kind of a cool acronym, kinda like "I HAFA keep my home".
totally OT: but I have to share this story from my neck of the woods:
MONTPELIER, Vt. -- The city of Montpelier's disclosure of a $462,000 accounting error that dates to 2004 has officials in Vermont's capital city scrambling -- and residents demanding to know why it wasn't made public sooner.
The overpayment went to a contractor who was owed about $85,000 for a water line project, but he cashed the $548,110 check and the city didn't realize it until a 2006 audit.
City Manager William Fraser revealed the error and the city's efforts to recover the money in an extraordinary full-page newspaper advertisement headlined "Deep financial water" on Saturday.
Now I know that sounds like chump change to a lot of you, but in VT, Its the annual state budget (only kidding a little).
Once started down the path to crazy, all the sub-paths are variant insanity. Rescue 'homeowners' becomes a series of psychopathic activities, each more damaging than the prior, until the gun goes to the head, or committment to the padded cells takes place.
I may be missing the point, but dead bodies can preserve well underwater. You have low temperature, low oxygen, low UV, and silt to cover/protect. I know this because it's used for fine cheese making
Remind me not to buy any fine-cheese from you. (I'll stick to Highland Fine Cheeses of Tain, Scotland!)
The entire US economy has become "extend and pretend."
Not if you are a small business owner or distressed home owner. The IO proposal is intended as a compromise to lower the borrower's payments to 31% of income by dropping principal payments instead of forcing the owners of the mortgage to take a principal writedown. This is for the benefit of the lender at the borrower's expense.
"October 7, 2009
Capmark Bank, the wholly-owned Utah industrial bank subsidiary of Capmark Financial Group Inc., agreed to a cease and desist order with each of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) and the Utah Department of Financial Institutions. The orders require Capmark Bank to maintain a Tier 1 leverage ratio of at least 8% and a Total Risk-Based Capital ratio of at least 10%.
Within 45 days, Capmark Bank must also submit a capital plan to the regulators and may not make any extensions of credit, or increase the amount of its brokered CDs.
In order to support the capital position, Capmark Financial Group said it has made a $600 million capital contribution to Capmark Bank -- $494.2 million in cash and $105.8 million in servicing advances.
Capmark Bank reported $11.1 billion in assets as of June 30"
The city of Montpelier's disclosure of a $462,000 accounting error that dates to 2004 has officials in Vermont's capital city scrambling...Now I know that sounds like chump change to a lot of you, but in VT, Its the annual state budget (only kidding a little).
Chump change indeed. We have school supers who make that in a year.
"A former Comsewogue school superintendent collected an unusual $739,000 "golden parachute" when he retired in 2006, according to state auditors who reported that this boosted the administrator's annual pension nearly $100,000 beyond what he was paid while working.
In an audit report released Thursday, the state comptroller's office said that an unusually favorable contract awarded Superintendent Richard Brande, an educator with more than 35 years' experience, allowed him to cash in unused vacation and sick days at daily rates of $1,304 and $2,784, respectively, when he retired."
I suppose that's true. The foreclosure/REO mill is already running at full capacity, so it's really a question of where you want the loans to be accumulating in the pipeline. Better to have some cashflow, if the alternative is an unsold REO or a borrower that's stopped paying altogether and is just waiting for the bank to get around to an eviction.
Now I know that sounds like chump change to a lot of you, but in VT, Its the annual state budget (only kidding a little).
An acquaintance of mine, a lawyer born near Keene, NH in 1899, now long dead, once said he left New Hampshire because he didn't enjoy living in "gentile poverty."
Air freight at European airports fell 11.7 per cent year on year in August, Airports Council International (ACI) Europe has announced.
The freight figure index continued an improving trend that started this summer, reported Reuters. Freight traffic fell 13.4 per cent year on year in July, compared with an average 22.4 per cent decrease in the preceding six months, according to ACI statistics.
Compared to the low point of December 2008, seasonally adjusted freight demand has improved by 12 percent, but remains 16 percent below April 2008 levels when the fall in demand began. All regions saw improved demand conditions in August compared to July, the International Air Transport Association said Tuesday.
Latin American carriers reported 3.9 percent growth. Middle Eastern airl volume increased 3.0 percent.
Asia Pacific carriers, representing 44 percent of the global freight market, saw year-on-year demand improve marginally from a 9.5 percent decline in July to a 9 percent decline in August.
North American carriers improved by 2.5 percentage points over their July record to carry 12.1 percent less in August 2009 than in August 2008. This is similar to the improvement from -16.2 percent in July to -14.5 percent in August registered by European carriers.
I dunno. Lehman Bros Bank received a C&D order a while back, but it looks like they satisfied the conditions. Reading about the fierce tribalism evident within Wall Street firms, I guess one part of the company could very well have been managed decently, while other parts not so much. The name was enough of an albatross, it seems, that they changed it to Aurora Bank. Either way, they paid back our CD this year without any problem.
Folks, I think I fixed the problem people have been seeing when clicking on the 'in reply to...' link. Rob Dawg was right - it was happening when another comment was already expanded. But more specifically, when the originating 'in reply to' comment was expanded.
You may need to clear your caches to get the change. Please let me know if you see this again.
"How can the FDIC not be seizing a bank that is going into bankruptcy? Does that not kinda defeat the purpose of the FDIC if the bank is broke and can still operate?"
yaghi - it is actually the holding company for the bank that will likely be going into a prepack Chapter 11 not the bank itself. That said, other than Lehman and CIB Marine, I am not sure if the FDIC has let holding companies go into BK without taking and selling the bank. Lehman Bank was pretty much wound down. Since bot hCIT and Capmark are industrial banks and basically accept time deposits which are then lent out to affiliates to fund loans, if the debt holders agree to backstop losses to depositors, the FDIC might be game to allow the bank to operate.
EDIT: and agree to adequately capitalize the bank going forward
Dredging up from the past, isn't a major constraint in any mod or short-sale action the loan securitizations that have created a class of ill-defined, but world-wide creditors who have rights that servicers can't legally broach?
Wednesday, September 30, 2009 - Trade using surface transportation between the United States and its North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) partners Canada and Mexico was 28 percent lower in July 2009 than in July 2008, dropping to $51.5 billion in the seventh consecutive month with a year-to-year decline of greater than 27 percent, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) of the U.S. Department of Transportation (Table 1).
I had a lengthy conversation with a cargo company exec. on a flight from Milan-NY. Those figures, according to this person, are wildly optimistic. He spoke of rates dropping 20-30% and actual billings falling a further 25-40%. I didn't think he was over pessimistic and thought he had quite a good grasp on the entire macro situation.
This article will be of no interest to anyone besides maybe Nuke if he's hanging around today. More on the highly comped school supers in the local area.
""We also have the highest cost of living in the state," said Sheldon Karnilow, superintendent in the Half Hollow Hills district. "We also have the highest quality schools."
The study lists packages of more than $300,000 each for three Half Hollow Hills administrators including Karnilow - the largest number for any district. Karnilow said the packages included retirement payouts of about $100,000 apiece for the other two officials."
Gee - do you think Captain Obvious could tie his taxpayer funded salary to the "high cost of living" nah, 'cause its' different it's for the children...
nova, thats why peeps are confused. Journalists are going to report in a very narrow comfort zone, they are beholding to the TBTF and Ad revenues of the big players now playing in DC. The information, real information is sorely lacking even for dorks like me. Reuters used to provide at least a little independent research, hard data to chew on. No more, its like picking up a USA Today. Its really sad. Once independent journalism goes down the tubes, the great lies begin in earnest as do the ability of people to make informed choices.
I'll give you an economic indicator right now...credit application penetration in auto dealerships this month sucks! worse then spring of this year....
our country is as messed up as a crack addict...were just looking for that next high...no matter what we steal, take or who we cheat to get it...
In the name of the best within you, do not sacrifice this world to those who are its worst. In the name of the values that keep you alive, do not let your vision of man be distorted by the ugly, the cowardly, the mindless in those who have never achieved his title. Do not lose your knowledge that man's proper estate is an upright posture, an intransigent mind and a step that travels unlimited roads. Do not let your fire go out, spark by irreplaceable spark, in the hopeless swamps of the approximate, the not-quite, the not-yet, the not-at-all. Do not let the hero in your soul perish, in lonely frustration for the life you deserved, but have never been able to reach. Check your road and the nature of your battle. The world you desired can be won, it exists, it is real, it is possible, it's yours.-- John Galt
Murphy's law would dictate that the moment I have to walk out to a 90 minute meeting I get a number of excellent responses to a post I made in the last thread. EHP, thanks for those monetary indicators from the BoC; it's good to have direct links to things I usually only arrive at after some digging.
some investor guy, if you're wondering how I managed to hold a 90 minute conversation on the economy with my wife, it's because she has a degree in economics, albeit not remotely focused on macro. So once we get on topic, we can discuss for hours; usually she's just far to occupied to really care about what's going on in the financial world, as long as it stays out of her personal world.
NOTaREALmerican, I certainly realize that the realities of party politics is that a 'leader' can't step out of his script and defy internal party politics. Except that he can, if he has nothing to lose. There are many examples of leaders creating policy on the fly, with backroom staff scrambling to make them a reality, and I have no doubt it could occur with Obama as well. It would be a last resort, of course, but it's not impossible.
Big suprise. Extend and pretend leads to stagnation and no obvious improvement in the economy or the borrowers status. Yawn. When was this predicted? Two years ago?
"Thanks for the info. Did not realize it was such a rare case. "
Interesting thing was that a number of the investment banks became BHCs not only to access TARP, but also to buy banks that would provide them access to low cost deposits to fund their operations. Pay the depositors 1.6% for a 12 month CD and then take the money and loan it out to an affiliate.
I assume that was intentional. Any particular reason?
* TARP vote.
* Financial sector campaign finance.
* Lack of sponsorship for 1207.
* Lack of oversight on Oversight Committee.
* "I'm as angry as anyone" baloney.
Just curious... what were the bullet points with your wife? I have a hard time getting my arms around it when it comes time to talk about it with someone else. I start sounding like an exasperated lunatic.
Gasoline prices dropping, oil struggling to keep positions above water Gas Price Historical Price Charts - GasBuddy.com Average&city2=&city3=&crude=y&tme=72&units=us
I would try to post the crack spread charts from NYMEX data but it's too fussy
Over the weekend, I ran into a guy I'd known before he moved from DC to NC. He'd lost work down there and was driving up to DC every week to work in a bike shop for around $12/hour. He’s had his loan modified without a cram down, of course, and is thrilled because his payment is lowered. He thinks his house is worth 129K (but needs work) and his mortgage is around 80K. If he had any sense, of course, he’d sell the house while the tax credit was still in effect. If he’s gotta drive 6 hours to work a $12/hour job, he might as well just sell and move up, even if temporarily. It must make the bankers laugh when they see those Maryland pay stubs he has to show.
Suggest starting with the basic fact that 70% of our economy is based on cheap money being converted into us buying crap. If you can't get a decent conversation started from that alone then you may not want to have it.
Or even "Oil Up on Speculation." It's always puzzled me that the headline writers need to find some sort of a reason for price movements every day. "Stocks up on blah blah" next day, "Stocks down on blah blah" Like they have the inside scoop on the reasons for asset price movements.
At least today it was about dollar weakness (the MSM headlines)......but I gather it will change back to the recovery tomorrow when JPM blows it out in the morning.
Fair enough. She talks a good game when it comes to middle class issues, but with the UES falling under her district (and hence her being my rep too), I figured she couldn't resist those Park Ave campaign dollars. I'd be more informed but not having the right to vote can make you apathetic, especially with local politics.
The man wasn't smart enough to be a real teacher, he just played one in the movies.
And it was kindergarten, not grade school.
In addition to spending cuts and tax increases, Schwarzenegger and lawmakers agreed to cover $6 billion of the deficit with borrowing and what Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Bill Gross, co-chief investment officer of the world’s biggest bond fund, in an online commentary this month, called “accounting tricks that couldn’t fool a grade-schooler.”
--Bberg
To be clear on this, I don't consider myself a survivalist, but rather a survivor.
I'm close enough to the action that I can get to it any day I choose, but far enough away that, should the shit hit the fan, I won't be overrun by hungry mobs.
We are also on our way to a degree of self-sufficiency, should the need arise.
You see, I like to eat and I like to live comfortably.
I have a HELOC that is costing 2.75%. Meanwhile, I know some old geezers that set aside $1 million for retirement and they are starving because they can only get 2.3% on a one-year CD. Their contributions to the U.S. consumer economy have declined from meaningful to zilch.
Ben is taking money that rightfully belongs to these geezer and giving it to me. And of course, to big banks and Wall St.
In the future, I will be a geezer myself, and then it will be my turn to get reamed by Ben.
Lehman/Aurora Bank was mentioned towards the end of the last thread. While the Q2 data is getting stale, the chart at the following link shows the bank's loan portfolio fell by 70% YOY: Bank | Home
It would be a last resort, of course, but it's not impossible.
Yes, you are right. And should this happen we'd be witnessing history. But, most politicians are as timid around authority as any other peasant. The banksters are probably the ultimate authority figure in Merica now. The last 50 years have been spent telling everybody that: the more money you have the better the person you are. Tough to change THAT outlook very quickly.
In a new review of its nuclear weapons policy, Russia will reserve the right to a preemptive strike if it feels its security is in jeopardy, Russian Security Council chief Nikolai Patrushev told the Izvestia newspaper, Reuters reported Oct. 13. Patrushev said Russia is reviewing its military doctrine and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev will receive the new doctrine by year’s end. Patrushev said, “Conditions for the use of nuclear weapons to repel an aggression with the use of conventional weapons not only in a large-scale but also in a regional and even local war have been revised.”'
What the hell is going on? I've also read today that Russia's new ICBM, the R-24, goes operational by year's end, and that the Clinton-Lavrov meeting in Moscow has ended in stalemate. Estonia wants NATO ground maneuvers in the Baltic region, in addition to air patrols.
EHP - I will be reporting from Karachi starting next month (yes, I'm crazy enough to quit my job here to take a quasi-entrepreneurial risk in Pakistan). I would pleased to offer my 2 cents, but only once I wrap my head around the situation on the ground.
More darkened houses are expected this Halloween, and less candy will be offered by those homeowners who do participate, according to the National Retail Federation in the U.S. The organization's annual survey of about 8,500 consumers found spending on the holiday is set to drop more than 15 per cent from last year, while the number of people planning to hand out candy has declined slightly, from 74 per cent to 71 per cent.
One in three consumers say the economy will affect their Halloween plans, with 88 per cent spending less overall, 35 per cent reusing decorations and 47 per cent buying less candy than in years past.
I warned people the back2school - New Years holiday sales season would be disappointing
what Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Bill Gross, co-chief investment officer of the world’s biggest bond fund, in an online commentary this month, called “accounting tricks that couldn’t fool a grade-schooler.
It's amazing what people will believe when they really want to believe. Remember, these same folks believed Arnold's predecessor when he screwed up CA utilities.
Just curious... what were the bullet points with your wife? I have a hard time getting my arms around it when it comes time to talk about it with someone else. I start sounding like an exasperated lunatic.
In all honesty, it wasn't a planned discussion so I was ill-prepared at the beginning. She's also exceptionally inquisitive (read: she doesn't trust a word I say) and so prodded every assumption I made; this made bullet points disjointed.
I think the main progression of the discussion, if I recall correctly, started with me making a silly leap from deficit spending to demand for treasuries, which she didn't believe for a second, so we talked out things like tax revenues for states and governments, currency flows between investors in different countries and central banks, debt monetization, and finally rested on the credit bubble.
If I was going to do it again, prepared, I'd probably start with the credit bubble, draw a comparison to other bubbles that your spouse might be familiar with (such as real estate bubbles, tulip craze, etc), showing that specific bubbles can raise the value of specific assets, but a credit bubble can raise the value of all assets. I'd then move to showing how governments would/did react to a deflation of that bubble, by attempting to prop up the prices of those assets through buying programs, and how that led to bailouts of financial institutions as well. My wife was interested in all of this, but it never got to her until I began comparing the bailout and asset supporting activities of the federal reserve and treasury to items outside of the financial sector. People talking about the government purchasing over-valued MBS/CDO and other difficult-to-understand packages of assets is hard to get excited over. But if you put it in terms people can relate to, like taking out a loan for a puppy, and that Wall Street combined that puppy loan with other puppy loans to make a big package of puppy loans from all over the country, in which other banks paid way too much money for. Then the government jumped in and said, "whoa, we can't let the price of a German Shepard puppy drop below $5,000, that's the market acting irrational and selling way below its inherent value; we take over these loans until the market value of puppies straightens out by swapping treasuries for these high-value loans."
You replace 'mortgages' with almost any other asset class, and it becomes pretty clear that the entire system has gone absurd. It's also easier to understand that way. And then it's only a short leap to show that the government has taken on vast quantities of over-valued debt, that does nothing to ensure future productivity but has only been used to prop up the institutions that made terrible errors in judgment and deserve to fail. Make sense?
alybaba
Check in with dryfly in a few weeks, he's heard of some strong push to increase exports from Pakistan.
I remember it was a big scare when no one was stepping up to loan them money last November, and they ended up only getting what they estimated would last 1 year. Saw something about trying to increase tax revenue by bringing in a VAT, although forex reserves did increase much more than just from the loan so it hasn't been all bad
My mother would have us make our own costumes, and we would get a "trick or treat for Unicef" box at school. Still a blast, and then when older there was always the drag queen parade in the Village. Spending doesn't correlate well with enjoyment, for celebrants.
Don't know if there's an implied snark tag on your comment but understand there has not been one documented case of either of the above except by a relative.
What the hell is going on? I've also read today that Russia's new ICBM, the R-24, goes operational by year's end, and that the Clinton-Lavrov meeting in Moscow has ended in stalemate.
Russia is imploding economically. Hillary Clinton knows this but she is smiling and saying nothing.
Russia is more worried about revolts among its impoverished, unemployed masses than an attack from outside.
It's a way that Russia is saying to the West -- "when all hell breaks loose in Russia and we start bombing our own people, don't get in our way."
and then when older there was always the drag queen parade in the Village
That must have been a fine coming of age kind of moment for you. What costume did you wear?
I like visiting the Castro on Halloween; seems like there's always some female in body paint and nothing else as a costume. Hell, it's just about the only way to be sure when you're there...
Not I but my buddy went in drag to a Halloween party and came home at dawn with his brother, with whom he shared an apartment. The security guard later said to the brother, very concerned, "Man, you could do a whole lot better than that".
"An encouraging aspect of the improvement in economic and financial conditions in recent months has been the firming in house prices that I mentioned earlier. House prices can affect economic activity through several channels. One channel is through the influence of house prices on the net worth of households and, thereby, on consumer spending. Another channel is through the effect of anticipated capital gains or losses from investing in residential real estate on the demand for housing. Finally, greater stability in house prices should help reduce the uncertainty about the value of mortgages and mortgage-related securities held on the balance sheets of banks and other financial institutions, which should have a positive effect on their willingness to lend. This circumstance should nourish a constructive feedback loop between the financial sector and the real activity."
Unlike some other Fed members, Donald Kohn is on the inside. So this is the official view of the Fed: House price bubbles are good - constructive, nourishing, positive, reduce uncertainty, stability, encouraging, improvement, real activity.....
Of course banks are asking for more.... it's free money! The taxpayer gives the bank money, the indebted servant (home owner) gives the bank 100% interest, and the bank gets all of the time in the world to continue mark-to-fantasy accounting.
Unbelievable... I refuse to believe that elected government officials are this incompetent, so corruption is the obvious and easy answer.
And we can still pretend to care and pay them!
.
In Socialist America, we pretend too!
How can the FDIC not be seizing a bank that is going into bankruptcy? Does that not kinda defeat the purpose of the FDIC if the bank is broke and can still operate?
I'd post a 4th comment just to stretch it into a 4 poster, but I'll lay up with a triple
Feds to Offer Easier Aid, Incentives for Modifications and Short Sales
According to Maggiano, the Treasury will offer a schedule of financial incentives to servicers for negotiating short sales or deeds in lieu of foreclosure for the most troubled borrowers in their portfolio that can’t obtain a modification. That plan, too, will come with a streamlined application for fast action, and it will put caps on how much of a payout can go to lesser lien holders who waive claims to a short sale or deed-in-lieu property.
Extend and pretend....Think Enzyte.
yagij,
Maybe a 100 billion or so is more than they (FDIC) want to deal with?
nova wrote:
TBTF becomes Too Big To Shallow? (Bowchicka-bowow!)
pr0n is taken in a new, entrepreneurial direction...
.
Edit: I must be beat, but I can see how easily
shill wrote:
Just as effective, too.
For you following oil:
This thing will be drawn out as long as possible by banks and the gov't to prevent any type of "wave of defaults" that many of us have been anticipating. Their will be no wave, just a slowly rising tide as the ice caps melt.
This is not extend and pretend. This is extend to minimize losses.
Got pigged, but the holding company going bankrupt doesn't necessarily mean seizure of the bank, it seems. Lehman Brothers Bank (now Aurora), GMAC Bank. Don't know how this works, just that it has happened.
Now if they'd just write these interest-only modifications at the Fed Funds rate we might be able to drive the delinquency rate to just about zero. They can even have 25 basis points to cover costs if they want.
ille_vir wrote:
Only in bizarro US Finance World does a bankrupted parent company not impact the operations of its banking arm.
They keep this up, I might have to revise my expectations for a spike up in the USD on the back of liquidating oil inventories. Still, they do not move fast. Getting any money past the loose change of $75bn they have for HAMP will take a long time, even for a FTHB extension. I'm not convinced that banks like JPM really want this ability, unless it helps them unload loans on the FHA... which is just about out of free capital. I think there is just an instinct to ask for something when you see a crowd gathered around a trough.
Perhaps they should also consider Neg-Ams, for a specified workout period only
Mike_ wrote:
This is extend to postpone losses. Future losses don't come out of current bonuses, as long as you don't do something silly like increase your loss reserves.
Interest-only mortgage loans again, huh? What's the next step after that? A tax credit to pay your interest?
OT, but that dollar intervention at 2:30 Eastern was pretty impressive, but the effect didn't seem to last very long.
DXY Index Quote - US Dollar Index Future - Spot Price Index Quote - DXY Quote - DXY Index Price
Well, what did you expect? Everything we have done for the last 2 years is a giant shell game of moving around and hiding the losses.
dead bodies don't preserve well underwater, so the government has an interest in cleaning things up (Environmental stream cleanup).
The Homeowner Preservation Office has trawl nets, cargo containers, and formalin (formaldihyde) by the tanker-full. Coming to a neighborhood near you.
Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives (HAFA)
To be followed by Home Affordable Hallucinogenic Alternatives (HAHA).....
I agree 100% ; there will be no precipitous negative change in housing or wall street. It will not be allowed by the WH in cahoots with Fed. One thing they can't seem to control is the UE rate.
Re: "dead bodies don't preserve well underwater"
Tell that to the people that have become Solent Green
Yalt, I am not saying that there will not be losses in the future but I dont think it is all about pretending that the losses dont exist to prop up the current business. I really believe that losses will be minimized by "extending" and not allowing the wave to happen. I am sure some tax payers dollars injected along the way will help to minimize the losses as well.
Is it just me, or is government support for short sales, which results in people ultimately being forced to move, one of the craziest, most repugnant ideas yet?
Only a couple thousand modifications, really? That's amazing. I think I know a significant percentage of them personally.
JimPortlandOR
I may be missing the point, but dead bodies can preserve well underwater. You have low temperature, low oxygen, low UV, and silt to cover/protect. I know this because it's used for fine cheese making
The entire US economy has become "extend and pretend."
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
That brought to mind an image of the "Trough 'n' Brew" skits from early SNL. Youtube doesn't seem to have any video, unfortunately.
Is it possible the bank is still solvent?
This allows the loss to be put on the homeowner instead of the bank/investor and delays recognition of the losses for the investor as well.
I think in between Bushs, Obamas, and whoever else, they have "saved" (see *) at least 4,347.5 families
bankerwannabe wrote:
Congressional Oversight Panel: Obama Foreclosure Plan will Fall Short
Trial mods are just stringing people long enough until they can refinance with the FHA, or to tire out clients from calling in to get a modification
mos maiorum wrote:
No.
HAFA is kind of a cool acronym, kinda like "I HAFA keep my home".
Good job, acronymysts~
mp,
Did you see the surface shipping an air freight stats I posted the other day? huh. Did'ya?
Nomura, Nomura.. I can't take any more Citi jokes
totally OT: but I have to share this story from my neck of the woods:
MONTPELIER, Vt. -- The city of Montpelier's disclosure of a $462,000 accounting error that dates to 2004 has officials in Vermont's capital city scrambling -- and residents demanding to know why it wasn't made public sooner.
The overpayment went to a contractor who was owed about $85,000 for a water line project, but he cashed the $548,110 check and the city didn't realize it until a 2006 audit.
City Manager William Fraser revealed the error and the city's efforts to recover the money in an extraordinary full-page newspaper advertisement headlined "Deep financial water" on Saturday.
Now I know that sounds like chump change to a lot of you, but in VT, Its the annual state budget (only kidding a little).
Once started down the path to crazy, all the sub-paths are variant insanity. Rescue 'homeowners' becomes a series of psychopathic activities, each more damaging than the prior, until the gun goes to the head, or committment to the padded cells takes place.
the only way to win is not play the game...or game the players...
time to run up the credit cards and enjoy life....have the house and car already...dont need anything else...
cheers to the new republic of credit criminals..the mafia doesnt have jack on us.....
No, I didn't. What have you got?
mp,
hmm..short version is the numbers are still dropping... hang on
Remind me not to buy any fine-cheese from you. (I'll stick to Highland Fine Cheeses of Tain, Scotland!)
mp wrote:
Not if you are a small business owner or distressed home owner. The IO proposal is intended as a compromise to lower the borrower's payments to 31% of income by dropping principal payments instead of forcing the owners of the mortgage to take a principal writedown. This is for the benefit of the lender at the borrower's expense.
Update: Bank Watch: Capmark Financial Pours $600 Million into its Ailing Bank - CoStar Group
"October 7, 2009
Capmark Bank, the wholly-owned Utah industrial bank subsidiary of Capmark Financial Group Inc., agreed to a cease and desist order with each of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) and the Utah Department of Financial Institutions. The orders require Capmark Bank to maintain a Tier 1 leverage ratio of at least 8% and a Total Risk-Based Capital ratio of at least 10%.
Within 45 days, Capmark Bank must also submit a capital plan to the regulators and may not make any extensions of credit, or increase the amount of its brokered CDs.
In order to support the capital position, Capmark Financial Group said it has made a $600 million capital contribution to Capmark Bank -- $494.2 million in cash and $105.8 million in servicing advances.
Capmark Bank reported $11.1 billion in assets as of June 30"
Yeah, this sucker's going down....
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Chump change indeed. We have school supers who make that in a year.
Audit: Comsewogue superintendent got $739,000 golden parachute
"A former Comsewogue school superintendent collected an unusual $739,000 "golden parachute" when he retired in 2006, according to state auditors who reported that this boosted the administrator's annual pension nearly $100,000 beyond what he was paid while working.
In an audit report released Thursday, the state comptroller's office said that an unusually favorable contract awarded Superintendent Richard Brande, an educator with more than 35 years' experience, allowed him to cash in unused vacation and sick days at daily rates of $1,304 and $2,784, respectively, when he retired."
Yeah this will end real well...
I suppose that's true. The foreclosure/REO mill is already running at full capacity, so it's really a question of where you want the loans to be accumulating in the pipeline. Better to have some cashflow, if the alternative is an unsold REO or a borrower that's stopped paying altogether and is just waiting for the bank to get around to an eviction.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
maybe that's true at great depths, but not apparently true in streams and rivers.
[i got my biology/forensic anthropology 'degree' from CSI and "Bones" while staying at the Holiday Inn Express]
An acquaintance of mine, a lawyer born near Keene, NH in 1899, now long dead, once said he left New Hampshire because he didn't enjoy living in "gentile poverty."
Air freight at European airports fell 11.7 per cent year on year in August, Airports Council International (ACI) Europe has announced.
The freight figure index continued an improving trend that started this summer, reported Reuters. Freight traffic fell 13.4 per cent year on year in July, compared with an average 22.4 per cent decrease in the preceding six months, according to ACI statistics.
source: August EU air cargo down 11.7pc Transportweekly . Com
I am looking for the US numbers.
Nanoo-Nanoo wrote:
Down goes Frazer?
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
nonsense, the FHA has an effective twenty trillion dollar credit line, courtesy of the fed Xerocracy. tranquilate!
Compared to the low point of December 2008, seasonally adjusted freight demand has improved by 12 percent, but remains 16 percent below April 2008 levels when the fall in demand began. All regions saw improved demand conditions in August compared to July, the International Air Transport Association said Tuesday.
Latin American carriers reported 3.9 percent growth. Middle Eastern airl volume increased 3.0 percent.
Asia Pacific carriers, representing 44 percent of the global freight market, saw year-on-year demand improve marginally from a 9.5 percent decline in July to a 9 percent decline in August.
North American carriers improved by 2.5 percentage points over their July record to carry 12.1 percent less in August 2009 than in August 2008. This is similar to the improvement from -16.2 percent in July to -14.5 percent in August registered by European carriers.
I dunno. Lehman Bros Bank received a C&D order a while back, but it looks like they satisfied the conditions. Reading about the fierce tribalism evident within Wall Street firms, I guess one part of the company could very well have been managed decently, while other parts not so much. The name was enough of an albatross, it seems, that they changed it to Aurora Bank. Either way, they paid back our CD this year without any problem.
Folks, I think I fixed the problem people have been seeing when clicking on the 'in reply to...' link. Rob Dawg was right - it was happening when another comment was already expanded. But more specifically, when the originating 'in reply to' comment was expanded.
You may need to clear your caches to get the change. Please let me know if you see this again.
"How can the FDIC not be seizing a bank that is going into bankruptcy? Does that not kinda defeat the purpose of the FDIC if the bank is broke and can still operate?"
yaghi - it is actually the holding company for the bank that will likely be going into a prepack Chapter 11 not the bank itself. That said, other than Lehman and CIB Marine, I am not sure if the FDIC has let holding companies go into BK without taking and selling the bank. Lehman Bank was pretty much wound down. Since bot hCIT and Capmark are industrial banks and basically accept time deposits which are then lent out to affiliates to fund loans, if the debt holders agree to backstop losses to depositors, the FDIC might be game to allow the bank to operate.
EDIT: and agree to adequately capitalize the bank going forward
Dredging up from the past, isn't a major constraint in any mod or short-sale action the loan securitizations that have created a class of ill-defined, but world-wide creditors who have rights that servicers can't legally broach?
JPM is the Fed in disguise. What more need be said?
Ciao
MS
Wednesday, September 30, 2009 - Trade using surface transportation between the United States and its North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) partners Canada and Mexico was 28 percent lower in July 2009 than in July 2008, dropping to $51.5 billion in the seventh consecutive month with a year-to-year decline of greater than 27 percent, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) of the U.S. Department of Transportation (Table 1).
source: bts.gov
Nova, thanks.
It looks like you're an information collector as well.
My summary of the above: It is not really getting better. The descent has only slowed.
Thanks for the info. Did not realize it was such a rare case.
nova-
I had a lengthy conversation with a cargo company exec. on a flight from Milan-NY. Those figures, according to this person, are wildly optimistic. He spoke of rates dropping 20-30% and actual billings falling a further 25-40%. I didn't think he was over pessimistic and thought he had quite a good grasp on the entire macro situation.
FWIW
Ciao
MS
This article will be of no interest to anyone besides maybe Nuke if he's hanging around today. More on the highly comped school supers in the local area.
Study: 18 of NY's top-paid school officials work on LI
""We also have the highest cost of living in the state," said Sheldon Karnilow, superintendent in the Half Hollow Hills district. "We also have the highest quality schools."
The study lists packages of more than $300,000 each for three Half Hollow Hills administrators including Karnilow - the largest number for any district. Karnilow said the packages included retirement payouts of about $100,000 apiece for the other two officials."
Gee - do you think Captain Obvious could tie his taxpayer funded salary to the "high cost of living" nah, 'cause its' different it's for the children...
mp,
Only of certain stats. I think transportation is a big deal. If nothing is going in/out then no one is making money. hence, jobs etc will reflect...
nova wrote:
Green shoot?
Green shoot?
For Bunkers?
mp said this would happen sooner than we thought, but is this bullshit?
Dollar loses reserve status to yen & euro
nova, thats why peeps are confused. Journalists are going to report in a very narrow comfort zone, they are beholding to the TBTF and Ad revenues of the big players now playing in DC. The information, real information is sorely lacking even for dorks like me. Reuters used to provide at least a little independent research, hard data to chew on. No more, its like picking up a USA Today. Its really sad. Once independent journalism goes down the tubes, the great lies begin in earnest as do the ability of people to make informed choices.
It seems to me transportation and energy consumption numbers are two things you just cannot fudge.
I'll give you an economic indicator right now...credit application penetration in auto dealerships this month sucks! worse then spring of this year....
our country is as messed up as a crack addict...were just looking for that next high...no matter what we steal, take or who we cheat to get it...
the hell with passion, honesty and honor....
I find a lot of this bunker talk lately to be amusing, and some of it is probably my fault for talking about going long on concrete.
But, I do feel that an "insurance policy" is in order.
The increasing instability is worrisome to me.
Yep, that is why it puzzles me. Transportation/Trade are the "real economy" I don't see recovery or am I not reading it correctly?
rocky-
Already happening.....just don't look for an official announcement though....
It is a bit cute that it takes the NY Post to report it.
Ciao
MS
mp wrote:
dude, really? i seriously thought you were building a bunker. what gives?
Murphy's law would dictate that the moment I have to walk out to a 90 minute meeting I get a number of excellent responses to a post I made in the last thread. EHP, thanks for those monetary indicators from the BoC; it's good to have direct links to things I usually only arrive at after some digging.
some investor guy, if you're wondering how I managed to hold a 90 minute conversation on the economy with my wife, it's because she has a degree in economics, albeit not remotely focused on macro. So once we get on topic, we can discuss for hours; usually she's just far to occupied to really care about what's going on in the financial world, as long as it stays out of her personal world.
NOTaREALmerican, I certainly realize that the realities of party politics is that a 'leader' can't step out of his script and defy internal party politics. Except that he can, if he has nothing to lose. There are many examples of leaders creating policy on the fly, with backroom staff scrambling to make them a reality, and I have no doubt it could occur with Obama as well. It would be a last resort, of course, but it's not impossible.
MS wrote:
cute, sad... yes.
I find a lot of this bunker talk lately to be amusing, and some of it is probably my fault for talking about going long on concrete.
bnut...but..mp...you're my guru. What am I going to tell the wife now! We are buying the doomstead!
Rocky, this is the trend I was talking about the other day.
The article to which you link is hyped somewhat, but it is happening.
Central banks are beginning to move away from the dollar and the only places they have to go are the yen and the euro.
As to whether this will become a full blown dollar rout remains to be seen, but I sure as hell wouldn't want to be on the other side of it right now.
ille-vir-
Correct....you cannot really fudge them however I lost track how many times that Yahoo has used the following headline:
Oil up on economic recovery.
At last count it was 12 times in the span of two weeks. It's been a while since we've had:
"Strikes in Nigeria drive oil prices higher"
Ciao
MS
Big suprise. Extend and pretend leads to stagnation and no obvious improvement in the economy or the borrowers status. Yawn. When was this predicted? Two years ago?
cclt-
Forgive the naivite, but what is "penetration?'
[In the context of this post, all you dirty minds out there.]
"Thanks for the info. Did not realize it was such a rare case. "
Interesting thing was that a number of the investment banks became BHCs not only to access TARP, but also to buy banks that would provide them access to low cost deposits to fund their operations. Pay the depositors 1.6% for a 12 month CD and then take the money and loan it out to an affiliate.
* TARP vote.
* Financial sector campaign finance.
* Lack of sponsorship for 1207.
* Lack of oversight on Oversight Committee.
* "I'm as angry as anyone" baloney.
Nothing wrong with that. What kind of doomstead are you buying?
I hope it's not an apartment on Central Park West.
Noob --
Just curious... what were the bullet points with your wife? I have a hard time getting my arms around it when it comes time to talk about it with someone else. I start sounding like an exasperated lunatic.
What's the next presidential candidate going to say "Failed policies of the previous two administrations"?
Gasoline prices dropping, oil struggling to keep positions above water
Gas Price Historical Price Charts - GasBuddy.com Average&city2=&city3=&crude=y&tme=72&units=us
I would try to post the crack spread charts from NYMEX data but it's too fussy
mp wrote:
IIRC, it was an acreage outside DC, in which I suggested he run a doomer reality television show titled "Going Supernova".
mp wrote:
The problem for most people - self included - is defining what form that insurance should take.
Doomsteader?
Over the weekend, I ran into a guy I'd known before he moved from DC to NC. He'd lost work down there and was driving up to DC every week to work in a bike shop for around $12/hour. He’s had his loan modified without a cram down, of course, and is thrilled because his payment is lowered. He thinks his house is worth 129K (but needs work) and his mortgage is around 80K. If he had any sense, of course, he’d sell the house while the tax credit was still in effect. If he’s gotta drive 6 hours to work a $12/hour job, he might as well just sell and move up, even if temporarily. It must make the bankers laugh when they see those Maryland pay stubs he has to show.
query-
Suggest starting with the basic fact that 70% of our economy is based on cheap money being converted into us buying crap. If you can't get a decent conversation started from that alone then you may not want to have it.
Ciao
MS
Yep. I am calling it the "retirement" home but in reality it is the mp Mach I, Mod V doomstead.
Or even "Oil Up on Speculation." It's always puzzled me that the headline writers need to find some sort of a reason for price movements every day. "Stocks up on blah blah" next day, "Stocks down on blah blah" Like they have the inside scoop on the reasons for asset price movements.
query_tool
You might start with a chart like http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/total-credit-market-debt-gdp.png
ille-
At least today it was about dollar weakness (the MSM headlines)......but I gather it will change back to the recovery tomorrow when JPM blows it out in the morning.
Ciao
MS
Fair enough. She talks a good game when it comes to middle class issues, but with the UES falling under her district (and hence her being my rep too), I figured she couldn't resist those Park Ave campaign dollars. I'd be more informed but not having the right to vote can make you apathetic, especially with local politics.
The man wasn't smart enough to be a real teacher, he just played one in the movies.
And it was kindergarten, not grade school.
To be clear on this, I don't consider myself a survivalist, but rather a survivor.
I'm close enough to the action that I can get to it any day I choose, but far enough away that, should the shit hit the fan, I won't be overrun by hungry mobs.
We are also on our way to a degree of self-sufficiency, should the need arise.
You see, I like to eat and I like to live comfortably.
A proper doomstead ought to be at least a full tank of go-juice away from the Big Smoke.
alybaba
Anything you can tell us about Pakistan over the next year?
mp,
I believe in puppy dogs, rainbows, and the good life also. I also sent off the paperwork to Glock for a "personal use" purchase. Nice discount.
Really? Have you got room for a Mach 1 ride?
Mike, that's an intensely personal decision and no one can really help you with it.
I have a HELOC that is costing 2.75%. Meanwhile, I know some old geezers that set aside $1 million for retirement and they are starving because they can only get 2.3% on a one-year CD. Their contributions to the U.S. consumer economy have declined from meaningful to zilch.
Ben is taking money that rightfully belongs to these geezer and giving it to me. And of course, to big banks and Wall St.
In the future, I will be a geezer myself, and then it will be my turn to get reamed by Ben.
And he could get a bike to commute on with an employee discount. DC is a great city for cycling.
Lehman/Aurora Bank was mentioned towards the end of the last thread. While the Q2 data is getting stale, the chart at the following link shows the bank's loan portfolio fell by 70% YOY: Bank | Home
Really? Have you got room for a Mach 1 ride?
Sorry, I can not disclose any more info unless you send me your public key.
"Disturbing" and "Alarming" in red letters can't be good. Thank God I'm done dealing with them.
'Extend and Pretend' is the whole premise of Keynesian economics. =/
noob goldberg wrote:
Yes, you are right. And should this happen we'd be witnessing history. But, most politicians are as timid around authority as any other peasant. The banksters are probably the ultimate authority figure in Merica now. The last 50 years have been spent telling everybody that: the more money you have the better the person you are. Tough to change THAT outlook very quickly.
" October 13, 2009
In a new review of its nuclear weapons policy, Russia will reserve the right to a preemptive strike if it feels its security is in jeopardy, Russian Security Council chief Nikolai Patrushev told the Izvestia newspaper, Reuters reported Oct. 13. Patrushev said Russia is reviewing its military doctrine and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev will receive the new doctrine by year’s end. Patrushev said, “Conditions for the use of nuclear weapons to repel an aggression with the use of conventional weapons not only in a large-scale but also in a regional and even local war have been revised.”'
What the hell is going on? I've also read today that Russia's new ICBM, the R-24, goes operational by year's end, and that the Clinton-Lavrov meeting in Moscow has ended in stalemate. Estonia wants NATO ground maneuvers in the Baltic region, in addition to air patrols.
OT, but a bit worrisome.
I commend the man for taking a job far away at $12/hr in a bike shop, which is honest labor.
God damn! I like the way you operate.
And he could get a bike to commute on with an employee discount. DC is a great city for cycling.
Why bother when I can drive my extra large sedan through the streets with my ass encased in the finest plastic? 18MPG is pretty damn good I think
They extend to modify, we pretend to pay
EHP - I will be reporting from Karachi starting next month (yes, I'm crazy enough to quit my job here to take a quasi-entrepreneurial risk in Pakistan). I would pleased to offer my 2 cents, but only once I wrap my head around the situation on the ground.
"I also sent off the paperwork to Glock for a "personal use" purchase. Nice discount."
Can you shoot down an R-24 with it?
I warned people the back2school - New Years holiday sales season would be disappointing
Can you shoot down an R-24 with it?
No, but I will be up to handling the feral boomer and dog packs that will result from it.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
It's amazing what people will believe when they really want to believe. Remember, these same folks believed Arnold's predecessor when he screwed up CA utilities.
pavel
Nothingburger. NATO is too poor to afford ground exercises and air patrols, and Russia is too poor to replace any launched ICBMs
How much could Halloween candy cost, $20?
How much could Halloween candy cost, $20?
With or without razor blades and lsd?
ac wrote:
Works well for politicians too. Leave your problems for the next guy. Unfortunately, it looks like the next guy is going to be us-
query_tool wrote:
In all honesty, it wasn't a planned discussion so I was ill-prepared at the beginning. She's also exceptionally inquisitive (read: she doesn't trust a word I say) and so prodded every assumption I made; this made bullet points disjointed.
I think the main progression of the discussion, if I recall correctly, started with me making a silly leap from deficit spending to demand for treasuries, which she didn't believe for a second, so we talked out things like tax revenues for states and governments, currency flows between investors in different countries and central banks, debt monetization, and finally rested on the credit bubble.
If I was going to do it again, prepared, I'd probably start with the credit bubble, draw a comparison to other bubbles that your spouse might be familiar with (such as real estate bubbles, tulip craze, etc), showing that specific bubbles can raise the value of specific assets, but a credit bubble can raise the value of all assets. I'd then move to showing how governments would/did react to a deflation of that bubble, by attempting to prop up the prices of those assets through buying programs, and how that led to bailouts of financial institutions as well. My wife was interested in all of this, but it never got to her until I began comparing the bailout and asset supporting activities of the federal reserve and treasury to items outside of the financial sector. People talking about the government purchasing over-valued MBS/CDO and other difficult-to-understand packages of assets is hard to get excited over. But if you put it in terms people can relate to, like taking out a loan for a puppy, and that Wall Street combined that puppy loan with other puppy loans to make a big package of puppy loans from all over the country, in which other banks paid way too much money for. Then the government jumped in and said, "whoa, we can't let the price of a German Shepard puppy drop below $5,000, that's the market acting irrational and selling way below its inherent value; we take over these loans until the market value of puppies straightens out by swapping treasuries for these high-value loans."
You replace 'mortgages' with almost any other asset class, and it becomes pretty clear that the entire system has gone absurd. It's also easier to understand that way. And then it's only a short leap to show that the government has taken on vast quantities of over-valued debt, that does nothing to ensure future productivity but has only been used to prop up the institutions that made terrible errors in judgment and deserve to fail. Make sense?
alybaba
Check in with dryfly in a few weeks, he's heard of some strong push to increase exports from Pakistan.
I remember it was a big scare when no one was stepping up to loan them money last November, and they ended up only getting what they estimated would last 1 year. Saw something about trying to increase tax revenue by bringing in a VAT, although forex reserves did increase much more than just from the loan so it hasn't been all bad
Cinco-X wrote:
And the weapons of mass delusion people. Can't forget them.
My mother would have us make our own costumes, and we would get a "trick or treat for Unicef" box at school. Still a blast, and then when older there was always the drag queen parade in the Village. Spending doesn't correlate well with enjoyment, for celebrants.
Don't know if there's an implied snark tag on your comment but understand there has not been one documented case of either of the above except by a relative.
1 currency now -yogi wrote:
That must have been a fine coming of age kind of moment for you. What costume did you wear?
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Russia is imploding economically. Hillary Clinton knows this but she is smiling and saying nothing.
Russia is more worried about revolts among its impoverished, unemployed masses than an attack from outside.
It's a way that Russia is saying to the West -- "when all hell breaks loose in Russia and we start bombing our own people, don't get in our way."
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
How does this relate to Arnold or CA?
Galt is effing fiction - fer christ sake. Might as well quote bugs bunny.
Mike in Long Island wrote:
I like visiting the Castro on Halloween; seems like there's always some female in body paint and nothing else as a costume. Hell, it's just about the only way to be sure when you're there...
Cinco-X wrote:
From your "same people" comment. The dumbasses who believe?
Why not its just as relevant.
Don't take life too seriously. You'll never get out alive. - Bugs Bunny
I'll be scared later. Right now I'm too mad. - Bugs Bunny
Of course you realize this means war! - Bugs Bunny
Not I but my buddy went in drag to a Halloween party and came home at dawn with his brother, with whom he shared an apartment. The security guard later said to the brother, very concerned, "Man, you could do a whole lot better than that".
And we usually did...
"An encouraging aspect of the improvement in economic and financial conditions in recent months has been the firming in house prices that I mentioned earlier. House prices can affect economic activity through several channels. One channel is through the influence of house prices on the net worth of households and, thereby, on consumer spending. Another channel is through the effect of anticipated capital gains or losses from investing in residential real estate on the demand for housing. Finally, greater stability in house prices should help reduce the uncertainty about the value of mortgages and mortgage-related securities held on the balance sheets of banks and other financial institutions, which should have a positive effect on their willingness to lend. This circumstance should nourish a constructive feedback loop between the financial sector and the real activity."
Unlike some other Fed members, Donald Kohn is on the inside. So this is the official view of the Fed: House price bubbles are good - constructive, nourishing, positive, reduce uncertainty, stability, encouraging, improvement, real activity.....
Of course banks are asking for more.... it's free money! The taxpayer gives the bank money, the indebted servant (home owner) gives the bank 100% interest, and the bank gets all of the time in the world to continue mark-to-fantasy accounting.
Unbelievable... I refuse to believe that elected government officials are this incompetent, so corruption is the obvious and easy answer.
Here's a costume for Holloweenies-
http://us.mg1.mail.yahoo.com/dc/launch?.gx=0&.rand=ers8lcmbfb9aq