Can I take a straw poll for whom among the G10 will raise interest rates first?
* Canada
* ECB (Belgium + France + Germany + Italy + Netherlands)
* Japan
* Sweden
* Switzerland
* United Kingdom
* United States

Obvious

they never had control over real rates...

Bullard is an idiot
source: St. Louis Fed: James Bullard - President and Chief Executive Officer

Oh, and the Bloomberg linky is broken - has a space in it.

the straw poll was in response to the responses to a macro-man post @ https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=34323687&postID=4433702688515029928
Canada is the #1 favourite. I think a lot of people are out to lunch

EvilHenryPaulson wrote:

Can I take a straw poll for whom among the G10 will raise interest rates first?

Put me down for Canada - commodities & resources 'inflate' first....

Lower U-3 unemployment or Lower U-6 unemployment. The former will decline much swifter than the latter.

I take ECB, forced by germany and france, causing great economic distress to other member states.

Hoopajoops LTD wrote:

I take ECB, forced by germany and france, causing great economic distress to other member states.

So what happens first - rate increase or dissolution of EU?

they never had control over real rates...

From what I've seen they can for short periods of time control real interest rates and promote GDP growth. But this current period of monetarist and interest rate activism has been accompanied by a reduced the overall long-term growth rate of the economy starting around the mid 80s.

This is also consistent with the historical record of inflationary tactics to promote economic activity -- short-term growth at the expense of long-term economic growth and integrity.

Not Irving Fisher wrote:

Obvious

Is it obvious?

You are dreaming, they are still providing liquidity.

Just imagine what it will look like when the market deflates.

The Fed needs commodity, gold, and oil, down, along with dollar up, and muy pronto.

I would guess that today was a warning shot- "A breakdown in technical support caused stocks to rollover midsession, but the S&P 500 successfully fended off sellers to log its sixth straight gain, which is the best streak this year for the stock market. "

That was a fed warning shot- somebody crapped on the market big time today at 2pm roughly.

So, how many folks are getting the message?

Delever, delever, delever- if main street has to do it, then Wall street will too.

Someday this war's gonna end...

Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich wrote:

If German UE goes back down then it would be a sure thing just to cram down structural changes in the mediterranian belt, but who knows.

Ah - that part of Europe - the weak underbelly I believe Churchill called it.

From Mauldin's newsletter:

But there is a limit to the Fed's ability to do so without causing real inflation. First, as long as the Fed is independent, at some point they will simply have to tell Congress we can no longer monetize the debt. While I am sure that some of you doubt they would do so, the Fed officials and economists I have been around are pretty adamant about that. There is a line they will not be pushed past. It may be further than I like, but it is there.

We'll see, because I think monetization will become the issue before employment grows.

monta's ankle,

Coming out of the dot-bomb recession Stephen Roach argued for a 200bp hike. Obviously no one paid attention.

But there is a limit to the Fed's ability to do so without causing real inflation.

It's also worth recalling that even ignoring all the historical association between inflation and loss of civil authority, during the recent inflation of the late 1970s politicians began to worry that their countries were "ungovernable".

It was only when monetary policy was used as a tool of restraint that it was actually successful (in retrospect, I would argue).

BTW, obviously it wasn't very successful for Volcker's career. So no central banker will ever do the "right thing" again.

yeah, 200 bp would be even better, though my guess is that would need to be 2013 or so - but the idea is the same - wait, wait wait, then raise with force - it creates uncertainty and forces currency traders to avoid engaging in long term high risk carry trades, not to mention it basically keeps inflation expectations under control

my guess is though that they raise 50 bps in late 2010 or early 2011, then slow choreographed moves to make sure those with first access to money are not hurt (not b/c I'm a conspiracy theorist but b/c that is how the Fed protects its banking brethren - without which it is useless)

Mauldin might be talking to the mid-level folks, but that's a far leap from the decision-makers in the rich Cordovian Leather seats.

The Fed's been monetizing the debt through the various facilities and such without any input from the Congress.

I'm honestly not sure how he can even consider a comment like that.

splat wrote:

So.. what do they do if we now have a extended high unemployment rate ? or worse an large UNEMPLOYABLE core percentage rate ?
~splat

Ooooo.... soon they're going to have to turn on the new "automated social control system".

they redefine NAIRU to 7% and start removing the emergency rate policy next year. if they wait the USD gets crushed and they risk encouraging inflation expectations

An interesting read from John P. Hussman, Ph.D. -
Zen Lessons in Market Analysis.
Once again a "what is the sound of one hand clapping?" piece.
But he is estimating a 6% return on the SP500, so would that make him bullish?

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment

Allen M, I agree with you but I think a symbolic raise to 0.25 will be the shot across the bow to let Wall Street know who is in charge without causing a repeat of last winter. I'd be shocked if the hedgies wouldn't want a nominal rate hike once they get their shorts in place. To get a little volitility on the downside.

Canada isn't Australia, and not a pure commodities play. Employment was up, but only due to government hiring. Revenues from commodities are much lower than last year, hurting not only wages/employment but tax revenues as well. Meanwhile, when the CAD rises it takes a good 18 months before prices budge at all. Sectors that compete for exports are losing market share, mostly to the US, because of the currency and subsidies.
Canada can deal with a more expensive currency, or a lower one for that matter, but the obstacle is the amount of lag between appreciating currency and increasing purchasing power. We haven't had a good housing bubble burst yet, and when we do that will cause a lot of people to reevaluate their retirement/savings/consumption
I would agree that it can be very conflicting when you have to pick 1 of 7, but the simplification of Canada as commodities is too crude. Not the same as Australia at least. Our housing bubble should be able to pop on its own now that the one-time boost of demand from interest rate cuts is waning, if for no other reason because of projects being completed.
Meanwhile our trade deficit is the largest in history -- not a lot of surplus available to squeeze left

If the dollar takes a hammering from someone, or a few auctions fail, the Fed may be forced to raise. Hopefully not to 15% though!

Major was ready to quit over Black Wednesday - Telegraph
Britain was forced to leave the ERM on Black Wednesday, September 16 1992, after hikes in interest rates to 15 per cent failed to stop massive speculation against sterling.
It was the biggest humiliation in economic policy since Harold Wilson's devaluation of the pound.

montas ankle wrote:

deflation makes govt stronger, inflation makes it weaker - a lesson that should never be forgotten

That's why democracies always choose inflation...

The only way Canada could deal with a currency that appreciates this fast is if our export competitors have their prices increase faster than their currency depreciates (the reverse of the lag in Canada where prices don't go down as fast as the currency goes up). That's why I think until there is devastating USD depreciation, there is plenty of headroom to see the USD rally up as forex is a little ahead of the current situation

dryfly
It was buried in there, but I can accept that the question was relative and the options were limited. Those were general comments and not intended as a retort to anyone here.
I think the CAD value at this point is more the result of traders with an overactive imagination and cheap funding.
Bank of Canada is more likely to emulate the Swiss and intervene in the currency than they are to raise interest rates for the foreseeable future

Bullard is an idiot

A stupid one. Another moron who believes handing giant TBTF banks money at <.25% will reduce unemployment.

at the same time, 0.25% is a stupid low interest rate. Problems are more about demand, which interest rates aren't spurring, or access to credit. Anything up to 1% shouldn't change much economically. Even 2%.

ac wrote:

Fundamental reform is never intentional at a societal level -- it is always reactive, never proactive

Very good. I agree. Does anyone have more than an exceptional counterexample?

on the other hand, if the BoC was ready to raise rates, they would first move up from 0.24% overnight and to the higher end of their 0.25 to 0.50% overnight target band Canadian interest rates-
Interest rates-
Rates and Statistics- Bank of Canada

ac wrote:

But the simple fact is that absolutely nothing meaningful has changed since then.

And I catch hell on this blog for repeating 'nothing much changes'... rock circles sun, round & round.

If ya got something better to do - do it. Not askin' ya to leave, just sayin'...

seriously. everytime i see this guys name i misread it as "bullTard". i always have to do a doubletake.

ac (profile) wrote on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 10:14 pm

Again, I'm becoming more convinced that fundamental change in human societies comes from how they cope with loss of control.

IMHO fundamental change in human societies only comes from the heavy, traumatic blows of fate. It throws the dominator monoculture off track for a while until it can find a way to profit from the situation, at least.

kcoop,

when I select "in reply too" in my post, IT reloads hoocooblue in a new xxx

*edit, new window.

"Congress Is Split on Effort to Tax Costly Health Plans"

"...The tax, a provision of the bill to be voted on Tuesday by the Senate Finance Committee, is one of the few remaining proposals under consideration by Congress that budget experts say could lead directly to a reduction in health care spending over the long term, by prompting employers and employees to buy cheaper insurance. ....

....But House Democrats, led by Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Representative Charles B. Rangel of New York, the chamber’s chief tax-writer, oppose the idea, as do labor unions and businesses......

.....At least 173 House Democrats, two-thirds of the party caucus, have signed a letter to Ms. Pelosi voicing opposition to the insurance tax... ."

It's amazing that we have a working economy at all when Congress works (so to speak) they way it does.

CONGRESS SPLIT ON A HEALTH TAX ON COSTLY PLANS - NY Times

What if the cost of all that wheat, canola, metals and oil due to an artificially low currency became more painful than a loss of exports? But China's not on EHP's list.

dryfly,
If Canada were half the distance from Asia and also absorbing those stimulus moneys, I would say it's different.
If you want to talk least bad, then that would imply investing in the US is the way to go. The world economy is tracking or doing worse than during the Great Depression (September 2009 update) | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists
I believe that the guiding principle of this downturn is that the central force will be to equalize the rate of pain, hence my belief in a Manic Depression.

EvilHenryPaulson (profile) wrote on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 8:27 pm

If the US goes down, no one else has been organizing the funding to keep Pakistan from collapsing.

What is meant by collapsing? Military takeover(again), Anarchy , Talibaanization, split into different ethnic states?

Or some combination thereof?

re: Pakistan - direct Indian intervention, for one.

EvilHenryPaulson

Understood. In the past Saudi Arabia had helped Pakistan out with aid and oil. Also paid for all the Madarasas that nurtured the fanatic Jihadists/Islamists. Btw, where is Musharoff hiding out these days? Saudi Arabia or England?

SNAFU
Last November it was crazy. They shopped for aid from everyone. China has huge investments there, shares a border, money to spend, ... nothing
The EU, nothing
Middle East or Islamic countries, nothing
In the end the US got enough approval for the loan to be made from the IMF, but only enough for less than half of what Pakistan was begging for. Now Pakistan is trying to bring in a VAT sales tax to raise taxes, never mind the economy was barely ok before the whole global economy started sucking wind
There is also a lot of unresolved political history that might come up to encourage some kind of collapse

dryfly
I'm not disputing the choice of Canada to raise rates first amongst that list. I'm disputing the idea that all further bets on CAD appreciation currently won't backfire... so we seem to be on the same page

dryfly wrote:

Plus you can not believe the pressure their gov't is putting on their mfg sector to step up exports - I will know more about that in a couple weeks.

Very interesting, that's a story I would like to read

dryfly
It might be a little crazy, but I think the RBA (Aussie CB) raised interest rates to specifically pop their housing bubble, and in doing so bring the apparent economy into line with the real economy and shoo the currency elves somewhere else which would do a better job of effectively lowering rates on the real economy
dictionary (the price bubble from trading beanie babies back and forth is pure virtual economy. the actual costs spent to make the beanie babies would be the real economy. the two combined together are what I call the apparent economy)

EvilHenryPaulson wrote:

Very interesting, that's a story I would like to read

I will report what I can. This group is looking for help to market their products - mostly to very large MNCs that already have a foot in S Asia. Most are NAFTA based. I know a few & said I'd listen. During initial phone conversations I asked them a 'what if'... if say the Taliban got testy... or India Pakistan had a fit [the guy I talked to has family in both India & Pakistan - not that unusual really]... he said " I hate politics - its killing us - we need to move on - we need it as a people - the world needs for us to do it." I said "Sure... but what if? That is a question you are going to have to be able to answer BEFORE any large MNC is going to do work with you outside S Asia - so tell me first - what contingencies do you have in place." He said we'd discuss it when in the US - that happens in a few weeks.

Should be interesting.

Could be. Helps that they also have an export commodity sector as a 'back up' to bring in exchange regardless. A luxury the US doesn't have. Nor Europe. Nor Japan. They export 'value added' or nothing at all.

dryfly wrote:

as in which glacier melts first

Good point. I won't be holding my breath.

EHP,

What is a drop in the Aussie housing bubble likely to do to their currency? Isn't it somewhat tied to the Chinese?

Is there chance of a shock that would be felt here in the US?

Jonathan,
Why did a housing bubble popping hurt the US economy? People treat the appreciation in their house as income/savings. The rest follows
As for a shock being felt in the US? Nothing directly. Australia is 20mn people, with most of its trade between Asia
If the AUD is going down though, chances are the herd is coming home to the USD which would immediately register in exports/gdp growth

dryfly wrote:

Could be. Helps that they also have an export commodity sector as a 'back up' to bring in exchange regardless. A luxury the US doesn't have. Nor Europe. Nor Japan. They export 'value added' or nothing at all.

I have theoretical construct that is the solution to such a quandary. A negative value added import. Just like that, we're back to binding demand and full employment

Thanks for that EHP,

I'm sure there are a bunch of fingers poised over the AUD sell... In fact I talked to a couple from Australia a few months back, and they were incredulous about housing, and the stimulus being given out. I guess it has to pop eventually.

Thanks!

Uh, can anyone tell me the difference between "implicit" and "explicit"?

Oh, and can anyone tell me the run rate of the CPI since January?

SNAFU wrote:

Pakistan was ill conceived

It wasn't conceived - it HAPPENED. But now its there...

Speaking of Pakistan, the fact that the Taliban infiltrated military HQ and took hostages should be VERY disturbing. Hopefully the humiliation galvanizes the Pakistani military to be more aggressive. On the other hand, the US needs to knock off the drone missile attacks inside Pakistan. That's destabilizing.

UN Bhutto assassination inquiry underway...
UN begins Bhutto assassination inquiry - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Bublé is better than just Canadian, he's from Burnaby (a city in its own right, but is the distance of what you might call a suburb of Vancouver) and is a Canucks fan
He's got a new album coming out, I've had the teaser single on loop sine I posted those videos YouTube -

merchants of fear wrote:

UN Bhutto assassination inquiry underway...

Pakistan has to face itself.. . . for once at least.

There's little or nothing other countries can do about that.

sportsfan wrote:

I didn't know Michael Buble was Canadian

I didn't care, but I guess that makes him another exportable commodity.

Canadians that go into showbiz/pro sports make good dual citizens. It's not like they are pillagers, and if they're happy then I'm happy for them. Maybe I should join them, my friend's brother has made good money from Abercrombie modeling and another friend's cousin has done modeling in NYC
There's no conspiracy, probably the diaspora networks well effect

Paul Anka is cool again

I wouldn't go quite that far, but he definitely qualifies as a crooner who's aged well.

sportsfan,
2 good covers from the rock swings albums are
YouTube - Paul Anka - Smells Like Teen Spirit (High Sound Quality)
YouTube - Paul Anka Wonderwall

EvilHenryPaulson wrote:

Bublé is better than just Canadian, . . . .

I like the new video. The youthful, playful approach befits him. Frankly, my impression of him was always that his stage presence was too stuffy for his age, but a great vocalist.

dryfly,
Maybe, but I would have gone the college route and that would have only happened if I switched to forward from defence, but I was stubborn, 5'10", strong, and had my quota of concussions

The Collider, the Particle and a Theory About Fate

"Then it will be time to test one of the most bizarre and revolutionary theories in science. I’m not talking about extra dimensions of space-time, dark matter or even black holes that eat the Earth. No, I’m talking about the notion that the troubled collider is being sabotaged by its own future. A pair of otherwise distinguished physicists have suggested that the hypothesized Higgs boson, which physicists hope to produce with the collider, might be so abhorrent to nature that its creation would ripple backward through time and stop the collider before it could make one, like a time traveler who goes back in time to kill his grandfather."
ESSAY; The Collider, the Particle And a Theory About Fate - NY Times

Fascinating essay for scifi fans.
++++
A few days ago someone asked for an opinion on Martin Armstrong. I spent a few hours last night reading his essays from prison. Highly entertaining. No opinion on the validity of his claims on the market cycles and the "geometry of time" but his talent as a writer was impressive. I added the JP Morgan quote "Millionaires don't use Astrology, billionaires do." to my quotable quotes after reading these essays.
Martin Armstrong Economic Essays, Currency Trading, Global Economic Analysis, Princeton Economics, Kondratieff Wave, Kwaves, Prison, Business Cycles, Currency Trading, Gold and Silver Investing 

sm_landlord
Israel was first, but everyone forgot about them. Oz was recent, and Norges Bank is probably next
I wouldn't be surprised if SK raised soon because they've done quite well ever since the Won tanked, but I wouldn't expect them to raise unless they felt they had to

While it can well be argued that the US has never gotten over the civil war (150 yrs), and Europe never really got over the revolutions of 1848 and the Prussian War (1870), when it comes to south asia, you have to look back many hundreds of years and you find issues that greatly color the present. The Mughal invasions (which started from Kabul, Afghanistan) of northern India - bringing Islam - are still fresh as a new daisy. The Brits removed the Mughals, but never removed the influence of Afghan, Pashtun and Indus valley moslem influence. And the post wwII partition drew the lines between India and Pakistan based on war strength, not cultural control. West and NW Pakistan is really part of east Afghanistan - which in turn makes the rest of Afghanistan (particularly the north and west) culturally hostile.

There is more mischief to be resolved than just India v. Pakistan. Kashmir is still a bleeding wound. The Pashtuns (and Taliban that grew out of them) are impossible to govern from a western democratic tradition. Pakistan is a contradiction in so many ways that it fails explanation. We will never understand it, anymore than we can understand and control Iraq or Iran.

We should get out of any dreams of changing things from DC, NYC, or Brussels.

[disclaimer: not a scholar, just an interested observer]

Pakistan is vacuum that will be

Maybe understanding Benazir Bhutto's cause of death, who did it, how the assassination was done, etc., will shed some light on Pakistan's increasing instability...

Larry Summers has some backup in telling the new-normal crowd what's what
America's Big Comeback - Forbes.com
What a carnival this has become

sportsfan,
Not bad, I'll check out some more luther later. I re-raise you YouTube - Al Green Tired of Being Alone Live (that link isn't the best audio quality, but it's the most raw)
addendum: To each their own, and to all a good night

ECB - based on the German fear of inflation and Germany matters at the European Central Bank.

Jim

ECB - based on the German fear of inflation and Germany matters at the European Central Bank.

Some cynics would argue that Germany is all that matters at the ECB, but you can understand Germany's paranoia regarding inflation.
~splat

In an era of obfuscation and lies, saying "duh" is a revolutionary act.

C

Alrighty then, I have officially recorded my first confirmed deflation indicators. This is completely counterintuitive, with the Dollar losing value and all, but this is significant:

Both San Pellegrino and Perrier carbonated water are both now less expensive than Canada Dry soda water.

I have now officially upgraded my Mojito mixers.

Put that in your and smoke it, Canucks!

sm_landlord wrote:

I have now officially upgraded my Mojito mixers.

PLEASE tell me you just mix'em for others and not yourself. Those drinks are all sugar and pure Hollywood.

"PLEASE tell me you just mix'em for others and not yourself. Those drinks are all sugar and pure Hollywood."

Not the way I make them. Fresh mint, fresh lime, good rum, no sugar.
And now, previously expensive carbonated water.

Hemingway's favorite, according to the stories, although I hear that liked the pure cane sugar.

sm_landlord wrote:

Alrighty then, I have officially recorded my first confirmed deflation indicators.

Didn't you get the latest Home Depot flyer? R-30 fiberglass was $19.78 now $9.37. 3/4"x2-1/2" furring was $1.15 now $0.77. Heck, the La Loma commentariat doomer enclave was $989,000 just went down again to $599k.

Rob Dawg wrote:

Heck, the La Loma commentariat doomer enclave was $989,000 just went down again to $599k.

Geez, I should've bookmarked that one. Link (again)?

341 E La Loma Ave, Somis, CA 93066 | MLS# 80022543

I look forward to these propaganda posters
.
As for Mojitos, you get sick of them fast when bartending with Mojitos on special. All that crushing the leaves, crushing the ice, cutting the limes... perfect drink while in Cuba though.
Pelegrino (Kraft) and Perrier (Nestlé) are mienral water, with so you might notice more than just club soda.
Canada Dry I think was spun off from Cadbury along with Dr Pepper. Probably the best Ginger Ale out there. If you don't know about it, basically drink Ginger Ale when you're sick and it will make you feel better no matter what.
In any event, I'm unaware of any benefit to Canada from the sale of that club soda

sm_landlord wrote:

I found some raw agave nectar that I'm going to experiment with.

I will alert the EMTs.

Rob Dawg wrote:

I will alert the EMTs.

Thanks. I guess I should sign up for LifeAlert before that project gets underway.

edit: YouTube - Weird Al Yankovic-Like A Surgeon

sm_landlord wrote:

I guess I should sign up for LifeAlert before that project gets underway.

That and large, do-it-yourself concrete jobs.

rosethorn wrote: (quoting Chris Whalen):

These are "process" people, after all, who believe that you can identify tasks that can be done by one person, then train that person and pay him/her well below average.

What a great explanation of a management philosophy that relied on the 'warm body principle' to fill slots with people who had no idea what they doing and not much authority to do anything anyway.

I realize some posters this morning said it had to do with the merger with Nations Bank, but I don't believe it. B of A was a useless bank nearly 40 years ago . . . and is probably worse today.

Ok, I can't stop: Somebody Stop Me!!!!

YouTube -

This one is hilarious.

Rob Dawg wrote:

My turn to ask which one again?

Up some rolling hills, only access from the North, multiple wells... you were thinking of raking in ~5K/mo selling water. Ring a bell?

"LOL. They all were 'cause Wierd Al is."

As someone who helped to produce a lot of high-production, low-content music in the 1970s, I get a real kick out of Weird Al.

edit: for example: YouTube - The Trammps - Disco Inferno

TJ and The Bear wrote:

Up some rolling hills, only access from the North, multiple wells... you were thinking of raking in ~5K/mo selling water. Ring a bell?

I think somebody else had the same idea with a higher pro forma estimate. We'll have to catch it on thr courthouse steps when it comes around again.

"sound was always close enough to make you laugh at the lyrics he used. "

Ironically his tracks were usually tighter than the crap that he parodied. Much tighter in some cases.

I was just marveling at the musicianship and production value in the tune "Boogie Nights" when it came on the radio last night. That world of session players is totally gone.

HollywoodHack wrote:

That world of session players is totally gone.

I don't know, I've been out of it for so long. But I do remember the effort. Sometimes we spent years on stuff like the Jim Keltner fan club work. Nothing survives on YouTube that I can find , other than the stuff that made it to the George Harrison albums. Like this one:
YouTube - George Harrison - Sue Me Sue You Blues

One of these days, when I dig out my old vinyl, I'm going to find the album that came out of all that effort and brain cell damage.
No videos, of course.

Edited for content...

U.S. Corporate Issues Surpass $1 Trillion in 2009 (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

Borrowers have sold more than $1 trillion in U.S. corporate bonds in 2009, the fastest pace on record, taking advantage of lower rates and government support to bolster cash holdings after last year’s credit freeze.

?? ?

"Borrowers have sold more than $1 trillion in U.S. corporate bonds in 2009'

Amazing if it was cheap enough debt to make that work.

Stunning when it doesn't get paid.

At least not in inflation-adjusted currency units of comparable value.

BTW, sm_landlord, I never responded to the heavy on production, light on musical content, music, but it was a hoot, too.

Eventually that music will be somebody's 'oldies'

I also produced this baby:

YouTube - The Motels - Only The Lonely

wow, awesome. I love the sound of that record. how did you get that keyboard sound? sounds a little like a dx7, but nicely warmer.

ahh, the lengths we go to to make Chowning's monstrosity sound like something besides a science project... but you did get a great sound! "Bette Davis eyes" has a similar vibe in that era, the contrast between the colder modern arrangement and the smoky, strong alto. great stuff.

quarterflash was another group from that era with a great sound led by a sexy female voice. i miss the recording industry.

I guess you can't leave the '80s Girl groups without a couple of these:

YouTube - Pat Benatar - You Better Run

YouTube - Heart - Kick it out (live 1978)

One of Martha's pieces that I had nothing to do with:
YouTube - The Motels - Shame

This is one that I worked on (and love):
YouTube - The Motels - Take The L

Wonderful. It's over, baby. Wish there was some way to put more drama into this one.

Its 5am, do you know where your money is? tee-hee Morning all.

meredith whitney cut gs from buy to neutral

I read that as "she broke wind from buy to neutral" at first.

EHP Interest Poll = Sweden. Why? Because of the Baltic. When? Does not matter as no one will notice.

Got ?

$1067.90

Perhaps foreigners don't believe the worst is over for their economies either.

Back to bed.

Whatinthehell just happened to the USD? Even against the Peso?

Whatinthehell just happened to the USD? Even against the Peso?

Massive hedge fund borrowing for today's exciting bubble market action.

Would it be safe to say that perhaps 1 out of 1,000 Americans own the real thing? (mining stocks and ETF's are dollar-denominated and human manipulated, thus highly suspect and don't count)

What if just a small number of the 999 were to get religion all of the sudden?

If other countries begin increasing interest rates, that will put even more downward pressure on the dollar. How long and how low will the Chinese keep selling us their stuff with an ever lower dollar? If the Chinese remove the dollar peg from their currency their exports will drop and the price Americans pay at Walmart will drift upwards. In the short run prices will go up. In the long run manufacturing could return to the US or even seek another country, since we are not business friendly.

Blips ain't where it's at. Sorry.

Little update of what's happening over on this side of the ocean for anybody curious...
Yesterday Netherlands central bank took over DSB after a run on that bank.
Today Romania government faces no confidence vote over handling of economy.
Onging are problems in Latvia, which is in danger of defaulting. This will hit Sweden badly.

So given EHP's list, I would have to go with Canada next (after Australia).
UK economy in dire straits. Can't see us raising rates over here, unless there is some sort of currency crisis.

Can't see us raising rates over here, unless there is some sort of currency crisis.

I'm certainly no expert but think (perhaps wrongly) those risks are rising.

Here's a teaser-course for what can go wrong when you give 100% of your money & confidence to an upstanding precious metals company. (the irony being that this scam actually delivered pm's for awhile, as opposed to ETF's that haven't had to deliver one grain, as of yet...)
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

For a while at least, William Alderdice, 39, and his brother James, 26, seemed to have the Midas touch. During the past three years, they transformed a small storefront jewelry business in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., into the International Gold Bullion Exchange (IGBE), a thriving enterprise with 1,000 employees, branch offices in Dallas and Los Angeles, and 1982 sales of $80 million. William Alderdice, the company's chief executive, bragged that IGBE was the biggest gold and silver dealer in the U.S. In television commercials and ads splashed across such newspapers as the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, IGBE offered to sell precious metals at exceptionally low prices. There was just one catch: customers had to wait several months for delivery of the coins or bullion.

When William Leonard, a court-appointed attorney, opened the vault at IGBE's Fort Lauderdale headquarters he found that "like Old Mother Hubbard's cupboard, it was bare." Or almost bare. Leonard did find a small adding machine and a few wooden blocks painted to look like gold bars.

Fool's Gold - TIME

Greetings, all. Can't stay long, but wanted to toss something into the mix: Chinese equivalent of Cash for Clunkers!

China auto sales jump 78 percent in September - Yahoo! Finance

Basically China is now the world's #1 consumer of automobiles. Does this make sense given that (a) they have a huge population density (not the most conducive to everyone driving) and (b) they're still only like #3 or #4 in total GDP? I suspect not, and suspect that this is unsustainable...

“I’m the north pole of inflation hawks,”

What the heck does that mean? I am the St. Louis of toaster ovens.

“But we are trying to describe optimal policy, some optimal outcomes in an environment where inflation is below target -- we have an implicit target of 1.5 to 2 percent..."

No, you have an explictit target of 1.5 to 2 percent. Once you start advertising it, it isn't implicit anymore.

I can't believe we pay these idiots.