Trade Deficit Decreases Slightly in August

This is just a result of foreigners lending us less money, right?

They gotta be feeling that on the Chinese side.

15 years and counting! Well, Brits outdone you guys, last time they actually had a trade surplus was around 1984. After that it is nothing but Potter books and nannies.

The fear of loss is a path of intervention indeed. Use the force, they will.

RE: Comment by Black Star Ranch from thread 'NY Times: Divergent Fed Views'

BSR,
When work was suspended on the Superconducting Super Collider, hope for using the solar resources of the SW to supply the nation was pretty much over. It's just too lossy sending the power nationwide due to IR losses. I've often thought a better use of solar resources in that area would be for desalination-

It appears the cliff diving for U.S. trade is over. The weaker dollar is probably helping exports - and hurting imports.

As I've said many times -- it isn't so much exports that will save us [they won't] -- it's the reduced level of imports & related 'borrowing' required to support that consumption that is at least the START of us saving ourselves. Less consumption & more 'production' = a good thing.

We really should focus on oil importation

  1. Buy more fuel efficient cars (30+ mpg)
  2. Drive less (live closer to work)
  3. Stabilize the population (increases in population more than negate any energy conservation)

Byzantine_Ruins wrote:

They gotta be feeling that on the Chinese side.

I'm not sure they are feeling it all that much. Euro trade is increasing and from what I hear domestic consumption in China is up. Can't speak to how much of that domestic consumption is 'organic' or 'forced' -- not sure the peasants care as long as they don't 'feel it'.

cinco,.....as you stated, line loss resulting from moving power even minimal distances overrides the benefits. If the power is derived from on-site, it works....... though .10/kilowatt is tough to beat. For the isolated uses (such as gate systems, back-up well pump, exterior kitchen, and barn/yard electric & lighting), experimental R&D, and bragging rights, it works quite well, and cost has been minimal. (ie: batteries used are banked and rotated in and out of my golf cart), PV cells were throwaways, lighting fixtures are surplus, etc.)

Desalination in the desert???

"We really should focus on oil importation"

One last comment THEN I have to go to work.
With Sunoco, Valero and others shutting down refining capacity, due to losses refining sour crude, we had better find efficiency, or else we will be importing refined products following a recovery, just line Iran

dryfly (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 10/9/2009 - 9:06 am

I'm not sure they are feeling it all that much. Euro trade is increasing and from what I hear domestic consumption in China is up. Can't speak to how much of that domestic consumption is 'organic' or 'forced' -- not sure the peasants care as long as they don't 'feel it'.

Amen if that's the case. They can go ruin someone else's current accounts.

Terry - price signals work. It is costly to processes sour crude & shutting off less efficient capacity until prices 'support' those costs is a good thing. The signal those [eventual] higher prices sends to consumers is 'get more efficient' and from what I see -- they are starting to get it. Slow but a start. It has to kick through the whole supply chain and back a few times but I think it is happening. About effing time too.

I'm seriously disappointed the futures aren't to the moon already. With our President wining the Nobel Peace Prize, it is proof the world still loves us, and the dollar is sure to win the hearts, minds, and respect of everyone. It would be only fitting for the DOW 10,000 ascension to happen today. Get with the program markets...We're America, everything we touch becomes gold. Wait that didn't come out right....

"The weaker dollar is probably helping exports - and hurting imports."

That is the plan.

it's the reduced level of imports & related 'borrowing' required to support that consumption that is at least the START of us saving ourselves.

Dryfly,

If only we were saving. The reality is that we are saving less today than at anytime in the past 75 years. Household saving has risen a bit, but Government deficits have risen far, far faster.

We're getting poorer. Why? Because TPTB have decided it is better to bailout faux wealth and financial fraud than to expunge mal-investments and bad debt.

Wall St. will prosper at the expense of Main St. - again!

Regarding the refiners, it is also a message to them that the winners will be the companies that have invested in refinery complexity to handle heavy, sour crudes - the mix that the world produces is moving in that direction and will continue to do so.

Byzantine_Ruins wrote:

Amen if that's the case. They can go ruin someone else's current accounts.

I believe if I read yesterday's news correctly that the EU is getting tired of that already -- they anticipate 'issues' with their Eastern European pals and that was where a lot of the low cost mfg is [or was] done in Europe. Since the fall of the wall anyway. Considering the proximity to Western Europe [old EU] and the financial & political ramifications -- I doubt the EU puts up with the China game as long as we did. Hell our elites would still be shoving China crap down our throats if they could get the Chinese to continue financing our bread & circuses [and mini-mcmansions] a bit longer.

Gotta get some work done -- talk to you all later today or tonight. BFF Forever!

If the birth/death ratio is removed, U-6 is in reality 21.3% total US unemployment. The estimate is that 824,000, more jobs may be extracted from the payroll count for the 12-months ended next March. Such a revision would be the biggest since 1991. The BLS is underestimating job losses deliberately and has been for a long time. That would mean September’s loss would be some 300,000 not 263,000.

Such a revision would put job losses not at 4.8 million but 5.6 million jobs.

Current Numbers Dont Add Up To Recovery - The International Forecaster

well, we bombed the moon this morning, watched it on NASA TV (I have no life). We didn't die because of it, though I lost some sleep worrying.

And KD has produced another screed.

And O got the Nobel Peace Prize.

And all is well otherwise.

Report over.

My grasp of reality is failing...this Nobel Peace Prize just kind of melted my brain. Probably just need a good slap upside the head, the coffee isn't working...

My grasp of reality is failing...this Nobel Peace Prize just kind of melted my brain. Probably just need a good slap upside the head, the coffee isn't working...

Happy to oblige VB Smile

this Nobel Peace Prize just kind of melted my brain.

The Nobel Peace Prize is a popularity CONtest. A sham. Although the not-so Nobel eCONomics prize is an even bigger sham.

I'm starting my own awards/prizes. The Shamies! Shame & Sham combined.

Nobel prize for what? He has accomplished nothing so far.

I know I shouldn't watch, and I know it's not good for me, but is that Erin person wearing a garland of fungus round her wrists and neck?

Black Star Ranch wrote:

Desalination in the desert???

Big pipeline from the Gulf; large scale solar stills; green deserts.
Of course, REAL engineering needs to be done to determine feasibility, but my gut says it'll work.

BTW, I've got a solar electric fence charger.

You'll have to get in line...the wife has volunteered, and I am sure my two sons would be happy to oblige. Pity me, it is going to be a long 10 days. The wife leaves for another business adventure, short notice...and I get to hold down the fort, alone...my 20 month old is currently unpacking wife's suitcase and is trying to pack himself.

Nobel prize for what? He has accomplished nothing so far.

Look on the bright side. At least Obama didn't officially invade any new sovereign nations. I say officially because we have unofficially entered Pakistan.

Tom Lehrer said that he was done as a satirist because Kissinger got a Nobel Peace Prize. At this point, I'm wondering which award is was sillier. Maybe it's a boobie prize for failing to get the IOC to pick Chicago.

Angry Saver - I agree.

The thing is -- we are poorer & have been for awhile, we just haven't set our 'consumption meter' to reflect that yet. We will unless the Chinese and Japanese want to continue to eat our losses.

Now wait a minute. If our plan is to devalue and other countries are going to work to revalue... ie Asian country dollar intervention...

Angry Saver wrote:

I'm starting my own awards/prizes. The Shamies! Shame & Sham combined.

Send them a "ShamWOW!!!" as a reward...

M wrote:

Drive less (live closer to work)

Your feelings are understood, but at what point do we draw the line? Should we be told where to live, or who to marry for that matter? Besides, I've lived in the same house since '91, but if I lived close to where I worked then, I'd have a 60 mile trip to work now. Being "centrally" located has been better for me than picking up and moving every time I change jobs.

Vonbek777 wrote:

Probably just need a good slap upside the head

Glad to- be outside my office in 10.....

IMO only way inflation can occur is if there is huge speculation in commodites......or there is hoarding/supply reduction by producers of commodities.

I think the FED is only trying to stop the speculation so that 2008, $148 oil can be prevented.

I am still in the camp that FED will reflate its way out of this deflationary environment..

in 2010 you will see hiring due to stimulus and new budget take off like there is no tomorrow....after all there is election in Nov.

i am willing to bet on unemployment falling to 7%....before it starts to fall it may go as high as 11%.

Dryfly,

If debt is a reality and not an abstraction, our CONsumption meter is in for a rude awakening.

The growth rate of private consumtion is negative as it should be given household debt levels. Government consumption can only assist in smoothing out the underlying trend, it can't change it.

I still see very tough times ahead.

Cinco-X,

No, we shouldn't be told. I hope we would realize an economic benefit of spending less money on gas and living closer to work, and perhaps a societal benefit as well.

Several MSM commentators have suggested that O's Nobel is really a slap in the face at Bush's unilateralism - "we're going to do whatever we want to do, the hell with what the rest of the world thinks". I agree.

If Barry can win the peace prize, it won't surprise me to wake up one morning and discover I've won the Kentucky Derby. ( With apologies to David Mamet.) LOL.

Cinco-X wrote:

Of course, REAL engineering needs to be done to determine feasibility, but my gut says it'll work.

BTW, I've got a solar electric fence charger.

Bring water from the moon would 'work' too.

Dryfly:
Hell our elites would still be shoving China crap down our throats if they could get the Chinese to continue financing our bread & circuses [and mini-mcmansions] a bit longer.

Oh they are. It's just now that the US consumer economy has collapsed, the Chinese are only able to provide the capital for government supplied service-based entitlements like health care, and white entitlements like the prison industry and the military-industrial complex. However, if you count capital as an import -- and it is a factor of production -- they are doing their job as an export economy quite effectively, recycling capital from real exports into dollar flows and re-exporting them to here.

techy246 wrote:

IMO only way inflation can occur is if there is huge speculation in commodites

The only way inflation can occur is if people have more money to spend. Speculation in commodities resulting in increased prices for them will simply result in decreased aggregate demand-

Nobel Prize, blame it on Bush. Time for a new excuse.

sorry i should have said that "inflation in commodities will occur in the short run...if there is huge speculation"

just like it happended in first half of 2008

Cinco-X wrote:

The only way inflation can occur is if people have more money to spend. Speculation in commodities resulting in increased prices for them will simply result in decreased aggregate demand-

Given enough script price inflation can happen even with diminished physical demand. They really aren't the same thing - inflation/deflation is a monetary event NOT a market supply/demand event.

then quitcher bitchin LBD - the only thing sillier than the award is the collective whining going on here

dryfly wrote:

Bring water from the moon would 'work' too.

Can you use solar power from the Southwest to do that?

CR:

can you please comment on this, it shows housing being 25% of GDP, is that still true? If so what is the activity in housing that can contribute so much?

Transportation Chapter

Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:

Nobel Prize, blame it on Bush. Time for a new excuse.

Blame it on Bush? Hell he's the one who should be getting the prize... without the opportunity his eight years of 'leadership' offered BO would still be a junior senator from Illinois. Give credit where its due.

Well, I don't know about solar power from the southwest, but you would need a very large catapult on the moon, and a powerful computer with which to program it. Of course, it's likely only a matter of time after that until the computer becomes sentient and helps plot a subsequent moon-rebellion.

Cinco-X wrote:

Can you use solar power from the Southwest to do that?

Sure - as easy as desalting enough water to make a difference in the SW.

dryfly wrote:

Given enough script price inflation can happen even with diminished physical demand. They really aren't the same thing - inflation/deflation is a monetary event NOT a market supply/demand event.

Oops! I should have said price inflation to distinguish it from monetary inflation. That said, I suspect that despite the government's attempts to reignite inflation, I suspect that they're really not able to affect the "effective" money supply, since they can't get folks that can spend it to take on the debt required to do so.

Hal - is that you?

"The weaker dollar is probably helping exports"

I wonder what we are exporting? How do they count products manufactured/developed by offshore labor is exported by US multinationals?

dryfly - time for one quick comment on price signals - if the EPA CO2 rule or cap and tax go into effect, these refineries will never re-open, no matter what the price is, as they will have a fixed cost disadvantage to foreign refined products, even when you add transportation costs.

Back to the piles of papers that have shown up on my desk - have a great day all.

I had one of my most productive days in ages after hoocoodanode quit working on me yesterday.

It was with great relief, tinged by slight consternation given the amount of work on my desk, that I realized it's working perfectly today.

But thanks for your help last evening, Ken!

dryfly wrote:

Can you use solar power from the Southwest to do that?

Sure - as easy as desalting enough water to make a difference in the SW.

Cranky today, huh!
Wink

Then Bush should have gotten one for Clinton and then down the chain off previous presidents. Nothing new. Some fail to see my laughing!

No, not HAL, he is referring to Mike.

Bring water from the moon would 'work' too.

CELINE DION LYRICS - Water From The Moon

Found a planet Master Obi-Wan has.

Cinco-X wrote:

Cranky today, huh!

LOL! Ya I'm as cranky as a banker looking out his office window to the pizza parlor across the street -- wondering why all the additional deliveries this morning... hmmmmm, coincidence?

Little is left of those people who claimed to have been kings of the earth before the Moon took to the sky. I have always wondered about that claim.

Lobbyist Ben Dover (profile) wrote on Fri, 10/9/2009 - 9:53 am

Some fail to see my laughing!

"I am the great Cackletta's most best pupil, who is named Fawful! I am here, laughing at you! If you are giving us the chase, just to get your silly princess's voice, then you are idiots of foolishness! Princess Peach's sweet voice will soon be the bread that makes the sandwich of Cackletta's desires! And this battle shall be the delicious mustard on that bread! The mustard of your doom!"

Hey, what do you know, the markets are shooting up yet again! Elmo!

Couple of random thoughts while listening to Bloomberg online:

I'm going to kill someone if I hear the "I didn't pay a penny for my power-chair" commercial! How many times a day can they play that GD commercial?

I want to run screaming through my house when I hear the "Free Credit Report.com" guys singing their songs on TV! Ok, I just had to get these things off my chest. Any thoughts?

Byzantine_Ruins wrote:

The mustard of your doom!"

I can't believe you just posted a line from a Mario game that I haven't played yet!

[Searches frantically for an n64 ROM to play on an emulator]

There is a solution, I know it is radical...but hey you could turn the tv off.

Page 6 of the report shows adjustments made to the export number. The adjustments for Aug 2009 is bigger than the adjustment made to Aug of 2008 compared to the corresponding July numbers. Does anyone know what these adjustments represent?

Noob:

[Searches frantically for an n64 ROM to play on an emulator

GBA. Use no$gba, or Visual Boy Advance if you don't have a PC. You'll have to find the ROM image on your own.

Noble: “for his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples.”

what would you call Richard Nixon's opening China? pedestrian? and what did he get for his travails?
[please remember the RMN was not assured of a meeting with Mao as they boarded Air Force One and the first
30 hours over there were fraught with tension...]

Love emulators. Finally beat Solomon's Key for NES the other day. That game has been the bane of my existence since 1987-88

Duke of Con Dao wrote:

Noble: “for his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples.”

I think the exact Swedish translation was... "for not being Bush." But I might be wrong.

Byzantine_Ruins wrote:

GBA. Use no$gba, or Visual Boy Advance if you don't have a PC. You'll have to find the ROM image on your own.

Done and done. Works perfectly on no$gba. Thank you sir.

Any thoughts?

Well, for starters, you're not watching enough Sesame Street. I think the markets are Its not easy being green today, not Elmo!

Up, up and away, in my beautiful bubble-loon.

Vonbek777

Love emulators.

I don't know that I like every emu, but I think the SNES and the GBA are measurable high water marks in game design. Lack of graphics to tie the project up, but plenty of capacity for complex mechanics.

Sega Genesis / Master Drive is good for that too (Der Langrisser II! Oh Yeah!)

Call me cynical, but that $1.4 million of "cha-ching" Barry believes in," should go into the public coffers. Otherwise it could be construed as a "bribe" from a foreign nation. Barry has done nada for "Peace."

Does the Nobel prize come with a cash award? Because that could be one hope for our economy. Esp. if the cash award is somewhere around $12T. That would come in handy right about now.

noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 10/9/2009 - 10:12 am

Thank you, sir.

No problem. If you haven't played Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door for the Game Cube yet, that's worth your time as well.

You guys are so out of touch.

Nothing beats Plants vs. Zombies. Nothing.

Duke of Con Dao wrote:

Noble: “for his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples.”

what would you call Richard Nixon's opening China? pedestrian? and what did he get for his travails?

I think the incursions into Laos and Cambodia (for example) pretty well obviated the need to consider him for a Peace Nobel.

snes was king, no doubt. My favorite games are on snes. Solomon's Key though is a masterpiece on the NES, can't explain it, but the game was perfection on many levels...always been amazed that it wasn't remade later. I just picked up a n64 lot on ebay for my kids. Ton of games, two consoles, and six controllers for $40.00. Was really lucky. Been playing Mario Party on the weekends and a little Zelda here and there, and Mario 64. My four year old has already mastered the n64 controller...it is pretty amazing. I thought we would have some issues with wanting to play all the time, but he has associated the Nintendo with family time on the weekends, so it hasn't been a problem thank goodness.

The wife's favorite game along side Final Fantasy Tactics

rps wrote:

Barry has done nada for "Peace."

Well maybe next year the prize will go to somebody more deserving... like say Bernanke. After all he & the Fed saved the world.

[Snark or No-Snark?]

I play the game of life and the points are dollars.

Vonbek777 wrote:

Love emulators. Finally beat Solomon's Key for NES the other day.

Dear effing gawd, man. I've repressed the memories of that game for the past 20 years. If you are that much into pain, you are masochistic enough to start (re)investing in SRS. Puzzled
.
Just say 'No!' Life is too short to spend on those kinds of games. Srsly.

no sadly the prize does not come with a 12 trillion dollar check but wait,
it does come with a lifetime supply of:
Surströmming
([ˇsʉ:rʂtrøm:iŋ] "soured (Baltic) herring") is a northern Swedish dish consisting of fermented Baltic herring, just like Japanese Kusaya fermented fish such as the horse mackerel, the flying fish, or the sharks. Similar fish is made world wide.[1] Surströmming is sold in cans, which often bulge during shipping and storage, due to the continued fermentation. When opened, the contents release a strong and sometimes overwhelming odor, which explains why the dish is often eaten outdoors.

dryfly wrote:

[Snark or No-Snark?]

Pull up your jeans, dude, your snark is showing.

Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:

I play the game of life and the points are dollars.

That's a terrible game. I gave up after a few minutes and pitched it into the trash.

JP wrote:

I think the incursions into Laos and Cambodia (for example) pretty well obviated the need to consider him for a Peace Nobel.

I thought that was what Kissinger's prize was for? That and the Christmas bombings - yes/no?

noob goldberg wrote:

I gave up after a few minutes and pitched it into the trash.

Although, you must admit that you seem to be doing just fine with The Game of Life: Canadian Edition.

JP
but they gave it to Henry!
why? cause he wasn't Nixon...

...
EDIT
HAK = Paris Peace Accords

yagij wrote:

Although, you much admit that you seem to be doing just fine with The Game of Life: Canadian Edition.

That's just cause I found a cheat. A beautiful woman who saves money like 1930's farmwife.

When opened, the contents release a strong and sometimes overwhelming odor, which explains why the dish is often eaten outdoors.

I'm filing that tidbit in case my house ever gets re-po'd.

Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:

I play the game of life and the points are dollars.

That might be an interesting epitaph.

Angry Saver wrote, "If only we were saving. The reality is that we are saving less today than at anytime in the past 75 years. Household saving has risen a bit, but Government deficits have risen far, far faster."

This is an interesting point. Americans who think they are saving are just setting aside money to meet obligations to the banks already promised and deficit-financed by their own government.

Oh, the pig. And just when we were having fun.

dryfly-Bring water from the moon would 'work' too.

Did you see the estimate on costs of getting water to the moon? From NASA, $50,000 / Gallon. Ouch.

I'm sure I don't need to explain this, but Kissinger did not ever have accountability for the military. Nixon did; he was C-in-C.

So if your goal is to encourage right behavior, give the prize to the person who negotiates the peace, not the person who expanded the war.

The one that should really cause more head scratching is Arafat/Peres/Rabin. I respect that they wanted to encourage everyone to stop slitting their neighbors throat, but wow. Sometimes you just have to tilt at windmills though.

Presidents of US who won Nobel Peace Prize during office.

Theodore Roosevelt - Office 1901 – 1909. Successful mediation to end the Russo-Japanese war and for his interest in arbitration, having provided the Hague arbitration court with its very first case, for which he won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1906.

Woodrow Wilson - Office 1913 – 1921. Founder of the League of nations, for which he won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1919.

Barack Obama - Office 2009 - present. Extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples , for which he won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2009.

lol,
So true yagij, but I was addicted. What can I say. The episode of News Radio where they install an arcade game in the lobby...Dave's old friend...that was me. Then I wandered into the golden age of computer RPGs....I am a very good computer tech for the sole reason that I needed to get my games to work...sad but true. As a writer though, it has paid off...I was exposed to a whole slew of ideas...which led me to books and you would be surprised that the study of philosophy is very alive and well in the realm of video games...least the ones I play.

Lobbyist Ben Dover (profile) wrote on Fri, 10/9/2009 - 10:27 am

I play the game of life and the points are dollars.

You should try the GBA, it has some pretty cool development.

RE Bear, incredible, Maybe he got it for slamming his own country non stop for six months.

Okay, this is slightly offtopic (sorry!), I'm confused on one point. I've been lurking here for a few days, and have a background in Micro-Economics (but not Macro), so please be gentle...

Is the consensus here that buying physical gold is a good move at this point? I know the prices are sitting awfully high, but there's the argument of impending inflation from more money being printed, vs credit "markets" receding. For some reason I'm having difficulty wrapping my brain around it. I was just about to transition from having 100% of my liquid, short-term savings in cash to having somewhere between 25-30% in gold coins/bullion. I've read comments that appeared to mock that concept, and I'm curious as to why that might be.

Again, sorry for the newb-ish question. Once you start talking credit and money-that-doesn't-exist-but-somehow-matters, I don't really know what to make of it. I think it has an absolutely-inverse relationship to equity, but dang it makes my brain hurt.

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