Hey I don't have family in Argentina, and am not in the market for a Muslim wife of good character...how bout some ads for absent minded philosophers? Too much to ask?
The coincidence of a weak economy and an unusually** large balance sheet** at the Federal Reserve will require some judgments by the Federal Open Market Committee of a sort for which there are not many historical precedents. Still, just as with conventional monetary policy, decisions on the timing and pace for removing accommodation should and will depend on our ongoing analysis and forecasts of all relevant economic factors.
These misleading phrasings are making me crazy. There's uncertainty about how robust growth will be ... well, that leaves two impressions, either it will be hugely robust, or perhaps less robust. Either way, robust! There's NO possibility that growth may be .... well .... NEGATIVE!!
Is there any reason to read or listen to these leaders who mislead??? Wouldn't you love to be the one to ask, "Excuse me, but aren't there a couple more possible outcomes??"
Uncertainty has been canceled. Growth will not be robust.
Under new accounting rules, "robust" will include a robust slowing of a contraction, any change from a negative sign to positive, and a large percentage increase over the previous rate (growth from .25% to 1% is a 'robust quadrupling').
Well, but there's viagra robust and just robust robust. I think greenspan said 3% robustiness. So, as long as we're able to rise to 2% that will be robust enough.
"...will require some judgments by the Federal Open Market Committee of a sort for which there are not many historical precedents."
They could not be clearer. They have absolutely no faith in their own decisions, because this baby does not follow the theories and paradigms they were taught.
It's the Hummer affect I'm worried about. Not sure Merica will be able to recover from this. Sheriff Moral Hazard looks better in a Hummer. It's the symbolism. The machismo. The, the, ..... tiz sad... A sad day for Merica!
Further examinanation of house prices in my old neighborhood shows max. loss of 230k not 250k. 2 out of 95 homes now show as in foreclosure. I expect more if further job losses hit around here.
I'm not sad. The whole USA = empire thing puts me off my feed. And downsizing the military means my relatives may stay alive longer. Maybe our birth rate will someday overcome our death rate.
The 'bailout' or the Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 was introduced Sept. 21, 2008 by Paulson and enacted Oct. 3, 2008.
H.R. 1207(Fed transparency) was introduced Feb 26, 2009 and S.604(Fed Sunshine Act was introduced on March 16, 2009 and both bills have cosponsors and have been referred to committee. Committees deliberate, investigate, and revise bills. The majority of bills never make it out of committee(govtrack.us) We must not be in an 'emergency' any more. Transparency is not much of a priority that legislation is given a faster track.
Over the past decade we have had 2 of the largest financial bubbles in the history of the world providing fuel for GDP growth, income growth, jobs and credit growth.
And yet despite that we have added zero jobs over that time period and incomes for anybody in the bottom 90% have stagnated or declined in real terms. This in a period where we had decent GDP growth (although illusory and debt fueled).
Zero jobs.
Declining income.
The next decade is projected to show signifigantly less growth and there is no bubble that can be inflated to replace the bursting of the two big bubbles of the last decade.
If we can't create jobs and income gains when the economy is supercharged by bubbles and showing GDP growth how are we going to do it in an environment of no or low growth?
Perhaps nobody’s task was more important than Romer’s. She had drafted a crucial section of the memo which included an economic forecast and projections about the impact of a fiscal stimulus. Romer was well suited for the job; an economic historian, she was a close student of Washington policymaking during downturns. One of her key papers as an economist at the University of California at Berkeley, where she had spent the previous twenty years, showed that, contrary to popular belief, Franklin D. Roosevelt’s spending programs hadn’t pulled America out of the Depression. (She found that monetary policy was the key factor.) Conservatives had seized on the paper to disprove the efficacy of fiscal stimulus, but Romer’s point wasn’t that Roosevelt had spent too much to no purpose; it was that he hadn’t spent enough. When faced with a severe recession, she believed in overwhelming force.
...
The most important question facing Obama that day was how large the stimulus should be. Since the election, as the economy continued to worsen, the consensus among economists kept rising. A hundred-billion-dollar stimulus had seemed prudent earlier in the year. Congress now appeared receptive to something on the order of five hundred billion. Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel laureate, was calling for a trillion. Romer had run simulations of the effects of stimulus packages of varying sizes: six hundred billion dollars, eight hundred billion dollars, and $1.2 trillion. The best estimate for the output gap was some two trillion dollars over 2009 and 2010. Because of the multiplier effect, filling that gap didn’t require two trillion dollars of government spending, but Romer’s analysis, deeply informed by her work on the Depression, suggested that the package should probably be more than $1.2 trillion. The memo to Obama, however, detailed only two packages: a five-hundred-and-fifty-billion-dollar stimulus and an eight-hundred-and-ninety-billion-dollar stimulus. Summers did not include Romer’s $1.2-trillion projection. The memo argued that the stimulus should not be used to fill the entire output gap; rather, it was “an insurance package against catastrophic failure.” At the meeting, according to one participant, “there was no serious discussion to going above a trillion dollars.”
There were sound arguments why the $1.2-trillion figure was too high. First, Emanuel and the legislative-affairs team thought that it would be impossible to move legislation of that size, and dismissed the idea out of hand. Congress was “a big constraint,” Axelrod said. “If we asked for $1.2 trillion, it probably would have created such a case of sticker shock that the system would have locked up there.” He pointed east, toward Capitol Hill. “And the world was watching us, the market was watching us. If we failed to produce a stimulus bill, that in and of itself could have had deleterious effects.”
...
Summers brought a third argument to the debate, one that echoed his advice to Bill Clinton sixteen years earlier, when his Administration was facing persistent budget deficits that Summers believed were suppressing economic growth. He, like Romer, was guided by an understanding that in financial crises the risk of doing too little is greater than doing too much. He believed that filling the output gap through deficit spending was important, but that a package that was too large could potentially shift fears from the current crisis to the long-term budget deficit, which would have an unwelcome effect on the bond market. In the end, Summers made the case for the eight-hundred-and-ninety-billion-dollar option.
When the meeting broke up, after four hours of discussion, interrupted only briefly when the President brought out a cake and led the group in singing “Happy Birthday” to Orszag, there was still indecision about how big a stimulus Obama would recommend to Congress. Summers, Romer, Geithner, Orszag, Emanuel, and Jason Furman huddled in the corner to lock down the number. Emanuel made the final call: six hundred and seventy-five to seven hundred and seventy-five billion dollars, with the understanding that, as the bill made its way through Congress, it was more likely to grow than to shrink. The final legislation was for seven hundred and eighty-seven billion dollars. Larry Summers and the White House economic team : The New Yorker
(adding to blue angels discussing from previous thread)
Was standing up at Coit tower and watched the Blue Angels practice nearly a decade ago for Fleet week.
Most amazing stunt: seeing a single jet go high and out over the ocean. Dive to near water level. And then streak UNDER the golden gate bridge while pulling a plume of water around it. And then going vertical again right between Alcatraz and the tourist piers. The Coast Guard had cleared its way.
*The coincidence of a weak economy and an unusually large balance sheet *
I would say these are not coincidences.
I can't believe how cynical I've become. Instead of taking this at face value, I find myself wondering what the fed's motivation is for painting such a negative/realistic picture. Is it only to alert us to continued low interest rates?
*The coincidence of a weak economy and an unusually large balance sheet *
I would say these are not coincidences.
I think that he meant that the "weak economy " and "unusually large balance sheet" were coincident, or that they existed at the same time. Perhaps a poor choice of wording-
had to go into town today and was listening to the radio. auto dealer talking about zero interest and mention zero interest for 5 years , now is that an auto option arm so to speak?
Perhaps the peasants aren't giving up the old ways after all.
Conclusion: consumer credit is increasing, not decreasing. I wish people would actually look at the data.
The question you should be asking is not whether consumer credit is increasing, but whether it will continue to do so after August and cash for clunkers.
And I did a full review of the asset-based economy during economic turns yesterday. All indications are that the consumer is not deleveraging as I would have anticipated.
Where were all these Fed head seers when banks were doling out trillions in un-serviceable debt year after year.
Worshipping the all knowing glod of the free-market, which can do no wrong (and, therefore, the people leading the free-market are the holiest of holy priests).
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/8/2009 - 5:35 pm
Worshipping the all knowing glod of the free-market, which can do no wrong (and, therefore, the people leading the free-market are the holiest of holy priests).
I know the markets are rallying, but it's the same old story. We're taking on debt to avoid the consequences of our past idiocy. In the short run more debt feels good. But in the long run, more debt will only make the situtation worse.
But in the long run, more debt will only make the situtation worse.
It depends how "long" the run is tho. If it buys time for the smart amoral scum-bags to loot the system more, then he's NOT a menace (to the people that matter). He's only a menace to the peasants (who are clueless, so it doesn't matter) and to the mythologies of Merica (but only peasants believe in those now anyway, so he's safe there too).
i dont have any ads but i also dont have "internet expl" or its bottom banner'the internet explorer cannot display webpage"
not having any problems posting or editing.
Well, I was saying that in 2007 too, but hadn't started posting on blogs yet.
I haven't checked what their stock is at for a long time.
The people who came in said that in a certain condo--which is on the ocean and
rents out ok, said that you can do nothing but breakeven on rentals, unless you have
no mortgage at all. That's what the buyer said, but he is still buying. This is an older
building which is beginning to need significant maintenance. maybe all we can really
afford to live in or vacation in is mud or thatched huts.
World Economic Forum survey on financial sector competitiveness is out World Economic Forum - Competitiveness Reports
Country / 2009-10 Rank / 2008-09 Rank / 2007-08 Rank
USA 3, 1, 1
UK 1, 12, 9
Japan 9, 9, 8
Germany 12, 7, 5
France 11, 16, 18
Canada 6, 10, 13
Australia 2, 18, 19
Sweden 14, 4, 4
Denmark 10, 3, 3
Singapore 4, 5, 7
Hong Kong 5, 11, 12
So the Chinese banks will use some of the dollars they are holding to buy failing U.S. banks. Interesting.
FYI
Doreen Woo Ho , UCB CEO ; Ms. Woo Ho was the president & ceo of WFC-CCG devision, including HELOC. WFC took a $1B write off on its sub prime HELOC portfolio; Ms Woo Ho left soon after that. Now she is in UCBH
BusinessWire - --Company Agrees to Action Plan with FDIC and California Department of Financial Institutions
--Investigation Subcommittee of the Board Audit Committee Completes Independent Investigation
--Company Provides Update to Preliminary Second Quarter Financial Information
The Board of Directors of UCBH Holdings, Inc., (NASDAQ: UCBH) the holding company of United Commercial Bank (UCB(TM) or the "Bank"), today announced that it has named Doreen Woo Ho as acting President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company, succeeding Thomas S. Wu, who has resigned from the Company and from its Board. Chief Operating Officer and former Chief Credit Officer Ebrahim Shabudin is also resigning from the Company.
OT Question on CRE tax assessments - I've just learned that in my city that if you own a large office building and the tenant leaves, you can ask for a much lower reassessment based on income and you will get it. Is this standard practice around the country? Seems to me like it is shifting the risk of owning the building on to the local taxpayers (i realize this is a popular american pastime). thanks.
So the Chinese banks will use some of the dollars they are holding to buy failing U.S. banks. Interesting.
I believe the idea is to cut out the middle man. eg.
Old model:
China lends US billions of $ which is used by US consumers to buy chinese goods
New Model:
China lends US govt. billions which is given as bail outs for US banks, now owned by the Chinese, thus cutting the consumer out of the equation
My mom's house was sold to "first time home buyers" and I don't think that the 8k was factored
in my us in our bargaining. Maybe in some unconscious way. It may have been factored in by
the Buyers who maybe wouldn't have bought at all without it. So if it is hard for me to say on my
transaction, I think it would be that many times more difficult to say over all. Or, maybe more data
points are helpful. I was happy to sell at any price frankly and would have gone down further.
Cash flow is one aspect of appraising commercial buildings for tax purposes.
Ahhh, the smart amoral scum-bags win again. It definately pays-off investing in those "political assets" (as somebody coin-the-term yesterday) in order to get favorable taxing laws. Espesially at the local level where the assets are more affordable.
Govt. sector- assets minus liabilities = net worth
Financial sector- assets minus liabilities = net worth
Private sector- assets minus liabilities = net worth
Risks for balance sheet weaknesses:
maturity, currency, capital structure, solvency
Mismatches create vulnerabilities that lead directly to solvency risk.
Analyzing these risks can help to shed light on crises in:
Mexico(1994), Thailand(1997), Indonesia(1997), Korea(1997), Russia(1998), Brazil(1999), Turkey(2001), Argentina(2002), Uruguay(2002), United States?(2009)
-'Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crises', Roubini, Setser, et al, IMF Working Paper, Dec. 2002
(This doesn't seem like rocket science.)
Govt. sector- assets minus liabilities = net worth
Financial sector- assets minus liabilities = net worth
Private sector- assets minus liabilities = net worth
Risks for balance sheet weaknesses:
maturity, currency, capital structure, solvency
Mismatches create vulnerabilities that lead directly to solvency risk.
Analyzing these risks can help to shed light on crises in:
Mexico(1994), Thailand(1997), Indonesia(1997), Korea(1997), Russia(1998), Brazil(1999), Turkey(2001), Argentina(2002), Uruguay(2002), United States?(2009)
-'Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crises', Roubini, Setser, et al, IMF Working Paper, Dec. 2002
(Somehow, this doesn't seem like rocket science.)
"Cash flow is one aspect of appraising commercial buildings for tax purposes. "
I used to be an appraiser so I understand the ways to value a building. However, saying identical office buildings have different value for tax purposes because one is rented and one isn't, seems to be a handout to the owner of the non leased building. Back when I appraised large office buildings around DC, we didn't do that.
Low monthly payments has been taken away from many CC users by increased interest rates and higher minimum payment requirements. The CC issuers stimulated repayment and decreased balances in the short term. The hit to consumer spending was significant but if a recovery is sustained you will see confidence return and the paid off/decreased balances will be viewed as available funds and will be spent. The upside to the CC issuers is they have a better income stream with a higher return. They have also washed out much of the dead weight through default. The risk here is the 'recovery' is short termed or the long term unemployment is stuck at over 10% and continues to rise.
The irony here is when taxes and fees are increased after the 2010 elections you will see more defaults, foreclosures, and small business failures. I am not sure how the FED is going to balance the need for increased taxes to feed the deficit with the need to keep the credit markets functioning. Dudley's virtuous cycle quickly reverses back into a vicious cycle with no tricks left to pull out of the FED's hat. That inflection point will reflect a falling dollar into the abyss of no return.
The 15.000 at the Cobo Center yesterday comes to most major population centers and the need to support many formerly deluded middle class,now permanently underclass, will drain the municipalities coffers increasing the need for higher taxes and fees. Cue more crisis.
Detroit poverty porn should be striking fear in everyone. When those events happen in your geographic area the realness of this crisis comes sharply in focus.
ovt. sector- assets minus liabilities = net worth
Financial sector- assets minus liabilities = net worth
Private sector- assets minus liabilities = net worth
Risks for balance sheet weaknesses:
maturity, currency, capital structure, solvency
Mismatches create vulnerabilities that lead directly to solvency risk.
Analyzing these risks can help to shed light on crises in:
Mexico(1994), Thailand(1997), Indonesia(1997), Korea(1997), Russia(1998), Brazil(1999), Turkey(2001), Argentina(2002), Uruguay(2002), United States?(2009)
-'Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crises', Roubini, Setser, et al, IMF Working Paper, Dec. 2002
Great info...I borrowed the gist of this for a blog post of my own. The message: emerging markets blow up all the time.
Over the past decade we have had 2 of the largest financial bubbles in the history of the world providing fuel for GDP growth, income growth, jobs and credit growth.
If TPTB manage to pull this one out by re-bubbling, the next one should be quite a doozy, given the additional systemic risk and the moral hazard of TBTF and the US Gov as the back-stop. I am still unconvinced that they will be able to continue to suspend disbelief and that this "recovery" will be smothered in the crib by UE and unsustainable debt burdens.
It bugs me to no end whenever I hear Bernanke or someone else claim that the fed saved the world. They saved the ponzi debt from defaulting. They saved the banks from their own financial idiocy.
But the cost of these actions is being borne by everyone else. So now everyone has to bear the cost of banker mischief.
Confronted with big job losses and no sign the U.S. economy is ready to stand on its own, Democrats are working on a growing list of relief efforts, leaving for later how to pay for them, or whether even to bother.
*@NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/8/2009 - 4:27 pm
It will be interesting to see who opposes this and how the fear-ads are structured. Should be fun to watch. 2009 Reefer Madness ads !!! *
You're looking at this ALL wrong. Think of it like watching the BEST pro sports team in the world, they are SO SO good - even people who don't understand the sport - admire their skills.
The Fed, and the Banksters, are just like that. The BEST at what they do. That should be admired. It's art.
Probably the only time I have ever agreed with Thomas though.
"Respondent's local cultivation and consumption of marijuana is not "Commerce ... among the several States."
Certainly no evidence from the founding suggests that "commerce" included the mere possession of a good or some personal activity that did not involve trade or exchange for value. In the early days of the Republic, it would have been unthinkable that Congress could prohibit the local cultivation, possession, and consumption of marijuana."
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said she is also considering a Republican proposal to allow money-losing companies to use their losses to get refunds of taxes paid in the previous five years
roflol...they don't have no stinkin money for refunds... that would be pure printing
It bugs me to no end whenever I hear Bernanke or someone else claim that the fed saved the world. They saved the ponzi debt from defaulting. They saved the banks from their own financial idiocy.
But that IS their world. I'm sure they have paid visits to the floor of the exchanges and banker boardrooms, but I doubt they have set foot on an actual production line or factory floor.
The shadows were not hired because they were stupid.
It's natural selection at work. That's why Merica has always been successful, pure unregulated natural selection. The smartest amoral scum-bags now own and control the entire country. The best have won.
Edit: THE PEASANTS WHO ARE ABOUT TO BE SCREWED SALUTE YOU!!!
I did really like Thomas's opinion on that one. The majority has this long, convoluted argument... While Thomas says, in essence, "If it's not interstate and it's not commerce, I don't see how it's interstate commerce"
Tragic, not surprising, and gholishly-almost-funny: (OT)
Meleanie Hain, the pistol-carrying Lebanon mom who received national attention for taking a loaded gun to her daughter’s soccer game, was shot to death Wednesday night with her husband in an apparent murder-suicide, police said.
Hain, 31, and her husband, Scott, 33, were pronounced dead by Lebanon County Coroner Dr. Jeffrey Yocum shortly after 8:30 p.m. at their home at Second Avenue and East Grant Street, Lebanon, police said.
The couple’s three children were home at the time and were not injured. They are staying with relatives and friends, police said.
The SCOTUS has ruled the federal government can enforce federal drug laws at the state level. The trick California is trying to pull is mandate that no state level law enforcement will cooperate with Federal law enforcement in any pot investigations or prosecute in state courts. Can California cover the loss of federal money to local law enforcement through the gains in taxes on pot? That will decide who wins in the legalization battle.
Rob Dawg wrote:
The HBs are alive because their demise would expose the lenders to their own true condition.
How so?
The dirty secret is that an unknowable portion of the RRE/CRE/REIT lending is/was coming back to the banks via interest prepayments. That extend and pretend is going to be the first to stop.
"Can California cover the loss of federal money to local law enforcement through the gains in taxes on pot? That will decide who wins in the legalization battle.
I'm not betting on California. "
Don't forget about reduced prison cost. Lot's of pot smokers in those jails.
If pot could be made 'legal', then CA could legalize prostitution and tax it. They need the money! Think of all the 'underground economy' business that is not taxed.
I think the issue over medical marijuana is not whether it will be legalized, but who will get to tax it. Look for the federal government to legalize and tax it like booze and tabacky. California will be S.O.L.
If pot could be made 'legal', then CA could legalize prostitution and tax it. They need the money! Think of all the 'underground economy' business that is not taxed.
Might be good for tourism. Think of all those out of work RE agents and "actresses" out there. With that level of talent, it might be a huge draw.
Missoula in 2006 passed an ordinance instructing the city police to make marijuana citations/arrests their lowest priority. The DA backed this up by saying he wouldn't press charges under an ounce. The arrests for marijuana increased over the following two years. Law enforcement simply found another reason to arrest or cite and then added the marijuana charges to those primary charges. Now you have to ask yourself which came first, the marijuana discovery or the original infraction the person was stopped for? You decide.
Understanding the dynamic between law enforcement at the patrol level with the political oversight is key to understanding much about American society. Men with guns don't like listening to those who don't carry guns. Simplistic but accurate.
No, I think Mad Max is possible for us. I just think before shifting their investments overseas, you've got to be as careful with your research as you would with domestic investments. Fleeing to invest in say Brazil isn't going to help any more than fleeing to municipal bonds.
Rob Dawg
It's worse than that. REITs have been raising new cash, by paying fat fees to the banks who will rate them positively and shove their junk offerings into clients' mutual funds
Look for the federal government to legalize and tax it like booze and tabacky
I can't image this happening with the Feds yet. Way too much "hippy" baggage amongst certain segments of the voting population. There's more to pot for these people than just drugs. There's the "gateway" issue, the "uncontrolled actions" issues (visualize naked fornicatin' harlots dancing in a hedonist pot-induced orgy), the "hippy free love" issue (which brings in more sex). Naaaa, ain't gonna happen in the entire USA, way too much sex.
Its gonna be hard to pay for Stimulus I, II and 40,000 new troops to Afganistan. Well, not really, we'll just print:
WASHINGTON (AP) - Confronted with big job losses and no sign the U.S. economy is ready to stand on its own, Democrats are working on a growing list of relief efforts, leaving for later how to pay for them, or whether even to bother.
Do you have any hope for humanity.....i mean do you think the peasants will ever get smarter so that they wont keep voting to power the blood sucking vampire squids...
I am not sure how the Vampire squids operate in the more socialised places in europe..
Norway is a little better place for peasants.....free health care...35 days paid vacation...an year of maternity leave....unlimited sick leave......70% of one's salary for two years as unemployment benefits.....unemployment rate is also not bad.
not saying that above is good for business....but WTF i care....i am a peasant and i would love to bring the above system to this country.
my relative has a small business, he keeps getting harassed by his employees all the time.
NOTaREAL - if we could anticipate anything like a normal, stable decade ahead, I'd bet on legal pot with a federal tax within that time, especially under a universal healthcare system. Now, if we go Mad Max, quien sabe?
the games REITs are playing with the loss carryback provisions....
GTA Golf Trust to merge with drug firm Turning its sights from fairways to pharmaceuticals, Charleston-based Golf Trust of America Inc. said [it] is merging with a Texas drug company. The agreement would transform privately held Pernix Therapeutics Inc. of Houston into a publicly traded company....
The company, which was created in the 1990s to invest in golf courses, fell on hard times as the value of its layouts plummeted. It decided in 2001 to liquidate its holdings and go out of business, but in late 2007, at the urging of a newly installed board of directors, shareholders scratched that plan in order to seek out other opportunities.
It's not much different from hanging your hopes on wine production, except you can consume more wine than pot in one sitting. Will have to equalize that through price.
Now that I think about it, pot tends to induce a Soma-like apathy in its consumers. Controlling the masses should be strong federal incentive for legalization.
Externalized Costs,
Agreed. War costs money that someone must pay. The sad thing is the War in Afganistan is becoming another Vietnam with no protest movement this time however.
"Now that I think about it, pot tends to induce a Soma-like apathy in its consumers. Controlling the masses should be strong federal incentive for legalization."
pot makes people too lazy to get off their ass. Bad for the retailers. I recommend legalizing meth. I hear it makes you real active.
Peasants are peasants. 70% worship authority (35% for the socialist mommy-party and 35% for the kick-ass daddy-party). This is probably normal. The nobility leading the dumbasses to their destruction is what the history of humanity is about. This can’t be changed.
Europe is different than here. Each country is generally ethnically pure. They historically distrust each-other, which brings the individual countries together (tribalism). The Italians have socialist health care because they are all Italians; and those damn Germans have it so we are too. This will change as the countries mix more. Normal human meanness will split the rich from poor, just like here. Plus, 50 years ago, they had most of the testosterone beaten out of them. This helped purge their societies of maleness for a few decades.
But, the US is exactly what you'd expect a country to look like that had no fear of other countries, which means - nothing to pull-them-together as a nation, and is a conceited over-testosteroned macho mess.
The only thing that might save the peasants here, is when they realize that the smart amoral scum-bags from both political parties are the same AND are both screwing them. But, I don't see that happening unless the majority racial group starts suffering in large numbers. And, if they do, the results might not be pleasant for "those people". Right now, most people don’t really even notice anything “bad” is happening.
War is a racket and very profitable. NARA's amoral scumbags figured this out centuries ago. The rest of us buy the story and march in the parades. Oh, and die of course. Someone has to die or it wouldn't be a real war.
@NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/8/2009 - 4:57 pm
the "hippy free love" issue (which brings in more sex). Naaaa, ain't gonna happen in the entire USA, way too much sex.
Where's the sex here Country Joe & the Fish Monterey Pop '67 - Section 43 ( section 43 was Ronnie criminalization for LSD ) YouTube - Country Joe & The Fish
Used to be a better vid with great comments but YouTube took it down
There's where the logic starts falling apart in who we are fighting. The US's material support of the "freedom fighters" was key to them winning against the USSR. They were getting the crap kicked out of them until we got involved.
According to all reports we are currently getting the crap kicked out of us. Begs the question where the material support for the Taliban is coming from? Read an article yesterday that the level of fraud and corruption among the Afghanistan "government" is providing a conduit of arms and funding to the Taliban. All supplied by the US government.
Conjure, son of mp and I are also off to the health club.
Where the coffee pours thick, son of mp always tells the waitress to "burn it," and the food comes in plastic baskets wrapped in grease-drenched waxed paper.
According to all reports we are currently getting the crap kicked out of us. Begs the question where the material support for the Taliban is coming from? Read an article yesterday that the level of fraud and corruption among the Afghanistan "government" is providing a conduit of arms and funding to the Taliban. All supplied by the US government.
Yeah, that's a problem. However, not an insurmountable one. The US experience in Iraq circa 2008/2009 shows that it is possible to stabilize a country after a period of extreme sectarian violence.
I suspect, however, Obama, after increasing the troop levels in Afganistan and pursuing a more aggressive strategy, will soon tire of the war and withdraw.
The US experience in Iraq circa 2008/2009 shows that it is possible to stabilize a country after a period of extreme sectarian violence.
Wha? Iraq != Afghanistan. The Iraqi civilian population, actually wanted some level of peace and stability and are largely far more educated and moderate than Afghanis. Plus Iraq has an economy that is not dependent on opium production and has actual trading partners. And a far less corrupt local government.
EHP, I thought you were calling him out, so to speak, as the godfather of automated trading, which 90% of the people on this blog would equate with evil. I can say with certainty that his contributions go well beyond that, and others created and developed automated trading before Jim. I'll leave it at that.
"I suspect, however, Obama, after increasing the troop levels in Afganistan and pursuing a more aggressive strategy, will soon tire of the war and withdraw."
I'm not sure about Pres Obama's appetite for war but mine is fully satiated. I'm a former Army combat medic.
The Vietnam War comparison bears up to scrutiny if you examine the morale of our troops. Repeated deployments and a ghost like enemy is wearing them thin.
If CA decriminalizes marijuana, the net reduction in law enforcement costs and increase in tax revenue would likely be enough to offset the loss of federal funds allocated to state and local drug enforcement subsidization. Besides, California has a large representation in the House obviously. Would CA's representatives allow punitive withholding of federal dollars? Don't think so...the House is responsible for the federal budget.
"Now if they could just find some minerals, oil, or something exportable besides opium in Afghanistan, maybe there would be some hope for that country."
patientrenter,
I didn't mean to limit the scope of Simons' career to just automated trading, but I do think it defines him. I didn't mean to whip up a mob by referring to automated trading -- to me automated trading is just fine, but it is the asymmetry of opportunity that is a problem, and it would be worth limiting trading speed to improve markets. You sound like you know more about him than just from the media, I would enjoy whatever stories you have to share. I know about his bias towards the sciences and math, which I appreciate, but the cynic in me believes a significant portion of Medallion's returns have been from more than just intelligent arbitrage. Did you see about their involvement with Madoff?
Martin Armstrong. For what it's worth he said in August that the market would rally in to Sept. If the DOW didn't break 11K then another leg down lasting 2 1/2 years
I've done work for many military personnel, and their "grip" on what is happening over in Afghan.
Funny how they still buy the party line...like we're trying to "help them plant corn".....
Truth is that Opium was almost decimated during the Taliban regime. Guess where it's @ now?
Do people really think TPTB would forsake the Billions that are coming out of that country for the merriment of the banking system?
The flop side of addictions, whether heroin, meth, or alcohol, is it creates a fundamental NEED to work as fast as possible for (ultimately, given the circumstances) @ the lowest wage available. It also supports the other industries of security, police, and the prison industry.
What could go wrong with that ?
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said she is also considering a Republican proposal to allow money-losing companies to use their losses to get refunds of taxes paid in the previous five years
Let's hope she has a fit of sanity and tells the GOP to pound sand. This is the same "tax loss carryover" nonsense that the NAHB tries to bribe Congress into passing every year at this time. Last year it got defeated after enough people screamed bloody murder, then again they tried to put it in the porkulus but that largely failed ( I think it was Olympia Snowe who managed to get it restricted to small businesses only.)
The case was not double digit billions I should add. It was part of a pattern that had to go close to that in my estimation. I started doing reading on it. There were a spate of books about it, and then it just disapeared.
rosethorn,
Would you believe I prognosticated last fall there would be an increase in gang killings as market demand decreased, because killing is the one way to maintain the profit per gang member that makes such a venture possible?
So, now that we've evolved into the Nanny State, where people have given up virtually all their true freedoms in return for a false sense of security, how are we doing? Well the nation is bankrupt by any conceivable measure. We are the worlds single biggest debtor nation that's ever existed. Our manufacturing base has been completely dismantled. We import more than we export, and by most accounts our population is broke. Now the question is, is that because of, or in spite of all our social engineering, laws, rules, restrictions, and political correctness? Well call me nuts, but I believe to the last fibre of my being that it's because of all the absurdity, AND that it didn't just "happen".
- InvestYourself
Bob Rinear and Robert Foster
"Would you believe I prognosticated last fall there would be an increase in gang killings as market demand decreased, because killing is the one way to maintain the profit per gang member that makes such a venture possible?"
Misean,
by that same token, I expect(ed) Wall St employment to be cut 50% and compensation by 50% in order to return to it's relative share of US corporate earnings (as reported to the SEC, not IRS, so tax havens shouldn't skew the figure) with a less robust growth of credit. Foreign companies won't come flocking like they once might have because of reputation and trust. Could fall even more as I can see how the innovations in computers and communication could lower the labor cost, increase quality of financial transactions
Mr. AHMED RASHID (Journalist; Author, "Descent into Chaos: The United States and the Failure of Nation Building in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia"): Well, I think if the commitment slows down in any way, I think the Taliban will take Kabul within six months to a year, and the situation will deteriorate enormously. The Taliban will then seek local allies: Pakistan, Iran, possibly China, the Arab Gulf states. And we will be back to the 1990s, where of course the civil war in Afghanistan was fueled by neighboring countries with various proxies.
I did really like Thomas's opinion on that one. The majority has this long, convoluted argument... While Thomas says, in essence, "If it's not interstate and it's not commerce, I don't see how it's interstate commerce"
The Fed's "Open Mouth Operations" are in overdrive lately.
They keep using that word...growth...
If we hadn't sold Hummer, we'd be able to have more robustness in our growth. But now, the Chinese get all the robust growth.
Sad to witness an empire shrinking...
Hey I don't have family in Argentina, and am not in the market for a Muslim wife of good character...how bout some ads for absent minded philosophers? Too much to ask?
What's really strange is that they all seem to be saying contradictory things.
It is as though the Fed were trying to create uncertainty in the market.
Now Nemo, that's just crazy talk. The left hand always knows what the right hand is up to in America.
negative rates?
These misleading phrasings are making me crazy. There's uncertainty about how robust growth will be ... well, that leaves two impressions, either it will be hugely robust, or perhaps less robust. Either way, robust! There's NO possibility that growth may be .... well .... NEGATIVE!!
Is there any reason to read or listen to these leaders who mislead??? Wouldn't you love to be the one to ask, "Excuse me, but aren't there a couple more possible outcomes??"
Uncertainty has been canceled. Growth will not be robust.
Under new accounting rules, "robust" will include a robust slowing of a contraction, any change from a negative sign to positive, and a large percentage increase over the previous rate (growth from .25% to 1% is a 'robust quadrupling').
Robust will hereafter be spelled "roboom".
Translation
Welcome to the new normal. slow to no growth. If we are lucky.
Why don't I think we will be lucky?
Pellice wrote:
Well, but there's viagra robust and just robust robust. I think greenspan said 3% robustiness. So, as long as we're able to rise to 2% that will be robust enough.
Marginally on topic...
Haven't seen a reference today to the rail freight report. Looks flat to down, especially for the intermodal and "Recession Watch" categories.
Railfax Report - North American Rail Freight Traffic Carloading Report
Baffle them with bullshit.
ta ta for now, ,rads
Growth = less bad than expected. Down only 1% from last years down 4%.
He obviously did not get the memo about how recoveries are always stronger for the more pronounced downturns.
a) We did plateau/stabilize/head sideways/mostly stop recessing
b) Prospects of recovery and growth are not on the horizon
c) If expectations of recovery and growth are not met for H2 -- it's their own damn fault for trumpeting that as their plan -- there will be further cuts/recession
d) The GD recovery 1 year in was stronger than it is today, arguably, The world economy is tracking or doing worse than during the Great Depression (September 2009 update) | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists
"...will require some judgments by the Federal Open Market Committee of a sort for which there are not many historical precedents."
They could not be clearer. They have absolutely no faith in their own decisions, because this baby does not follow the theories and paradigms they were taught.
Nah, that's just CYA.
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Thu, 10/8/2009 - 4:47 pm
They keep using that word...growth...
Sometimes it's a noun... and an object. A tumor, for instance, is a growth.
Bond Girl
That is true, but only true when balance sheets are unbounded, which is not the case when credit is contracting for whatever reasons
Want to be wealthier?
Want to be healthier?
Want to be the envy of your fellow bloggers?
Vote in the #1 Premium Platinum BFF Poll at the polls link.
/snark
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Not shrinking; "right sizing"-
It's the Hummer affect I'm worried about. Not sure Merica will be able to recover from this. Sheriff Moral Hazard looks better in a Hummer. It's the symbolism. The machismo. The, the, ..... tiz sad... A sad day for Merica!
The beatings will continue until morale improves.
Further examinanation of house prices in my old neighborhood shows max. loss of 230k not 250k. 2 out of 95 homes now show as in foreclosure. I expect more if further job losses hit around here.
Sheila is broke. Can she cover bad debt with bad debt?
Nemo wrote:
Greenspan used to do that all by himself; no biggie-
I'm not sad. The whole USA = empire thing puts me off my feed. And downsizing the military means my relatives may stay alive longer. Maybe our birth rate will someday overcome our death rate.
Can she cover bad debt with bad debt?
Everyone else in D.C. does, why wouldn't she?
prof. tarullo taught me everything i know about banking regulation.
not sure what that says about either of us...
Bond Girl wrote:
Neither did the economy-
Just discovered you can't buy the American Buffalo gold coins from the mint or platinum coins either.
hey, thank you everyone who responded to my question on the previous thread. always good to hear responses to point blank questions like that
In my best Austrian voice:
It's not a Tuuumoh. It's growth!
They should have listened to Romer....
$1.2tn of stimulus instead of $500bn of stimulus and $287bn of cash for votes
homeGnome
you back! or you still in italy?
I'm back from Italy.
You can check out my homepage for pics and info.
Been super busy since I've been back.
The 'bailout' or the Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 was introduced Sept. 21, 2008 by Paulson and enacted Oct. 3, 2008.
H.R. 1207(Fed transparency) was introduced Feb 26, 2009 and S.604(Fed Sunshine Act was introduced on March 16, 2009 and both bills have cosponsors and have been referred to committee. Committees deliberate, investigate, and revise bills. The majority of bills never make it out of committee(govtrack.us) We must not be in an 'emergency' any more. Transparency is not much of a priority that legislation is given a faster track.
Disempowered Paper Pusher (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/8/2009 - 5:05 pm
In my best Austrian voice:
It's not a Tuuumoh. It's growth!
Doubly appropriate considering the source, and the state where he serves in his present occupation
Funny:
The article requested is no longer available.
Over the past decade we have had 2 of the largest financial bubbles in the history of the world providing fuel for GDP growth, income growth, jobs and credit growth.
And yet despite that we have added zero jobs over that time period and incomes for anybody in the bottom 90% have stagnated or declined in real terms. This in a period where we had decent GDP growth (although illusory and debt fueled).
Zero jobs.
Declining income.
The next decade is projected to show signifigantly less growth and there is no bubble that can be inflated to replace the bursting of the two big bubbles of the last decade.
If we can't create jobs and income gains when the economy is supercharged by bubbles and showing GDP growth how are we going to do it in an environment of no or low growth?
Our economy is broken.
In anticipation of the BFF party, has there been any new news regarding United Commercial Bank?
charles kiting
no,not funny they have a point and i think thats an oh dear me!
(adding to blue angels discussing from previous thread)
Was standing up at Coit tower and watched the Blue Angels practice nearly a decade ago for Fleet week.
Most amazing stunt: seeing a single jet go high and out over the ocean. Dive to near water level. And then streak UNDER the golden gate bridge while pulling a plume of water around it. And then going vertical again right between Alcatraz and the tourist piers. The Coast Guard had cleared its way.
Truly an awesome experience.
Those pilots are gods.
Those pilots are gods. - M
They sure think they are. Egos the size of Texas.
@ EHP-- thanks, I've bookmarked that for later. See you on the flip side!
*The coincidence of a weak economy and an unusually large balance sheet *
I would say these are not coincidences.
I can't believe how cynical I've become. Instead of taking this at face value, I find myself wondering what the fed's motivation is for painting such a negative/realistic picture. Is it only to alert us to continued low interest rates?
Negative growth is actually shrinkage.
Couldn't get my previous comment to post.
terry
check cr pbl for 10/2/09
in sf.ca?
Negative growth is actually shrinkage.
And we all know how guys like shrinkage.
Every time I see The Dollar Store I think the Federal Reserve got a new name! Got Dollars?
bankerwannabe wrote:
I think that he meant that the "weak economy " and "unusually large balance sheet" were coincident, or that they existed at the same time. Perhaps a poor choice of wording-
Have a closing that might go through. But it's owner to owner, no banks involved.
had to go into town today and was listening to the radio. auto dealer talking about zero interest and mention zero interest for 5 years , now is that an auto option arm so to speak?
Very poor choice of wording, as it implies there was no causality.
So the stimulous wasn't enough money?
Gaby - I thought I heard somewhere that a Chinese bank was interested in acquiring control of them.
Perhaps the peasants aren't giving up the old ways after all.
Conclusion: consumer credit is increasing, not decreasing. I wish people would actually look at the data.
The question you should be asking is not whether consumer credit is increasing, but whether it will continue to do so after August and cash for clunkers.
And I did a full review of the asset-based economy during economic turns yesterday. All indications are that the consumer is not deleveraging as I would have anticipated.
Is the consumer really deleveraging? « naked capitalism
Perhaps The Treasury boys are bettin the peasants DO just keep borrowin'
Where were all these Fed head seers when banks were doling out trillions in un-serviceable debt year after year.
"Perhaps the peasants aren't giving up the old ways after all"
C4C had to account for a bunch of the increase in the closed end credit. Open end surely dropped.
James Simons, the man synonymous with automated trading, is retiring from Renaissance Technologies
terry you heard right
minsheng bank wants control of them
Angry Saver wrote:
Worshipping the all knowing glod of the free-market, which can do no wrong (and, therefore, the people leading the free-market are the holiest of holy priests).
"minsheng bank wants control of them"
So the Chinese banks will use some of the dollars they are holding to buy failing U.S. banks. Interesting.
notareal
they are going to use the card until they cant.
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/8/2009 - 5:35 pm
Worshipping the all knowing glod of the free-market, which can do no wrong (and, therefore, the people leading the free-market are the holiest of holy priests).
Smoking OPM day after day does that to a berk.
//// Perhaps The Treasury boys are bettin the peasants DO just keep borrowin' ////
That is the bet they have to make. Or is all comes crumbling down.
bankerwannabe wrote:
Exactly! Fedspeak-
I know the markets are rallying, but it's the same old story. We're taking on debt to avoid the consequences of our past idiocy. In the short run more debt feels good. But in the long run, more debt will only make the situtation worse.
Bernanke is a menace.
josap
if they are hearing that everything is okay, and they believe it, of course they are going to continue or start back using their cards.
Angry Saver wrote:
It depends how "long" the run is tho. If it buys time for the smart amoral scum-bags to loot the system more, then he's NOT a menace (to the people that matter). He's only a menace to the peasants (who are clueless, so it doesn't matter) and to the mythologies of Merica (but only peasants believe in those now anyway, so he's safe there too).
Once again falsehood to displayed by the failure to
be able to compose a simple declarative sentence.
My ad is for Lennar.
Immediate occupancy
Zero closing costs.
Low rates.
Why is Lennar still in business?
It won't let me edit.
again, wouldn't take a comment.
i dont have any ads but i also dont have "internet expl" or its bottom banner'the internet explorer cannot display webpage"
not having any problems posting or editing.
lawyerliz wrote:
again, wouldn't take a comment.
That happened to me a few times today. Had to close the "tab" and restart the comment window.
The "Save" button was also "stuck" on the reply posts. Discard worked, Save looked active but wouldn't "click".
lawyerliz wrote:
Liz, you are replicating my posts from 2007. The HBs are alive because their demise would expose the lenders to their own true condition.
Liz - same thing here using IE - I posted a comment to Ken. You can do both in legacy.
"It depends how "long" the run is tho."
Only two things are certain in the long run. Or if you're a Christian, four.
Well, I was saying that in 2007 too, but hadn't started posting on blogs yet.
I haven't checked what their stock is at for a long time.
The people who came in said that in a certain condo--which is on the ocean and
rents out ok, said that you can do nothing but breakeven on rentals, unless you have
no mortgage at all. That's what the buyer said, but he is still buying. This is an older
building which is beginning to need significant maintenance. maybe all we can really
afford to live in or vacation in is mud or thatched huts.
I can't reply or edit.
So have been using new comment.
pavel
you forgot student loans for americans,besides death and taxes
So heaven and hell are not certainties for non-Christians?
Stop that Liz, bad, Liz, stop that.
Can't resist!
World Economic Forum survey on financial sector competitiveness is out World Economic Forum - Competitiveness Reports
Country / 2009-10 Rank / 2008-09 Rank / 2007-08 Rank
USA 3, 1, 1
UK 1, 12, 9
Japan 9, 9, 8
Germany 12, 7, 5
France 11, 16, 18
Canada 6, 10, 13
Australia 2, 18, 19
Sweden 14, 4, 4
Denmark 10, 3, 3
Singapore 4, 5, 7
Hong Kong 5, 11, 12
gabyjan wrote:
And connecting through Atlanta on the way to the afterlife, if you're from the south-east and die.
Merican
notareal
youre right about that, forgot about that,i dont go anyplace.
@Terry
FYI
Doreen Woo Ho , UCB CEO ; Ms. Woo Ho was the president & ceo of WFC-CCG devision, including HELOC. WFC took a $1B write off on its sub prime HELOC portfolio; Ms Woo Ho left soon after that. Now she is in UCBH
UCBH Holdings, Inc. Names Doreen Woo Ho Acting President and CEO and Joseph J. Jou Chairman - Forbes.com
I have "Considerable uncertainty" about exactly how delusional the Fed is.
~splat
OT Question on CRE tax assessments - I've just learned that in my city that if you own a large office building and the tenant leaves, you can ask for a much lower reassessment based on income and you will get it. Is this standard practice around the country? Seems to me like it is shifting the risk of owning the building on to the local taxpayers (i realize this is a popular american pastime). thanks.
Really, splat?
I am pretty certain.
Cash flow is one aspect of appraising commercial buildings for tax purposes.
Wow, I just figured out what ,rad means...
Terry wrote:
I believe the idea is to cut out the middle man. eg.
Old model:
China lends US billions of $ which is used by US consumers to buy chinese goods
New Model:
China lends US govt. billions which is given as bail outs for US banks, now owned by the Chinese, thus cutting the consumer out of the equation
~splat
lawyerliz wrote:
That will leave a mark on municipal coffers next year.
nova
comrade
right?
nova wrote:
He's not always right but he's almost always clever.
My mom's house was sold to "first time home buyers" and I don't think that the 8k was factored
in my us in our bargaining. Maybe in some unconscious way. It may have been factored in by
the Buyers who maybe wouldn't have bought at all without it. So if it is hard for me to say on my
transaction, I think it would be that many times more difficult to say over all. Or, maybe more data
points are helpful. I was happy to sell at any price frankly and would have gone down further.
lawyerliz wrote:
Ahhh, the smart amoral scum-bags win again. It definately pays-off investing in those "political assets" (as somebody coin-the-term yesterday) in order to get favorable taxing laws. Espesially at the local level where the assets are more affordable.
Govt. sector- assets minus liabilities = net worth
Financial sector- assets minus liabilities = net worth
Private sector- assets minus liabilities = net worth
Risks for balance sheet weaknesses:
maturity, currency, capital structure, solvency
Mismatches create vulnerabilities that lead directly to solvency risk.
Analyzing these risks can help to shed light on crises in:
Mexico(1994), Thailand(1997), Indonesia(1997), Korea(1997), Russia(1998), Brazil(1999), Turkey(2001), Argentina(2002), Uruguay(2002), United States?(2009)
-'Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crises', Roubini, Setser, et al, IMF Working Paper, Dec. 2002
(This doesn't seem like rocket science.)
I dunno, if your cash flow gets worse then the value of your building goes down for
real Cap rates going up, value going down, also, right?
Nitey-nite.
October is not over.
Cash flow on property is an income tax and not a wealth tax. Farmers like to use that argument.
Govt. sector- assets minus liabilities = net worth
Financial sector- assets minus liabilities = net worth
Private sector- assets minus liabilities = net worth
Risks for balance sheet weaknesses:
maturity, currency, capital structure, solvency
Mismatches create vulnerabilities that lead directly to solvency risk.
Analyzing these risks can help to shed light on crises in:
Mexico(1994), Thailand(1997), Indonesia(1997), Korea(1997), Russia(1998), Brazil(1999), Turkey(2001), Argentina(2002), Uruguay(2002), United States?(2009)
-'Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crises', Roubini, Setser, et al, IMF Working Paper, Dec. 2002
(Somehow, this doesn't seem like rocket science.)
Rob Dawg wrote:
How so?
energyecon
Google Flu Trends | United States
Blackhalo
A rolling loan gathers no loss
Good one EHP
Double(dip) post not intentional.
This is amazing! Peaking almost 4-5 mos before other years. All due to Swine Flu I suppose?
liz
"Cash flow is one aspect of appraising commercial buildings for tax purposes. "
I used to be an appraiser so I understand the ways to value a building. However, saying identical office buildings have different value for tax purposes because one is rented and one isn't, seems to be a handout to the owner of the non leased building. Back when I appraised large office buildings around DC, we didn't do that.
If you're still there LL, I wanted to ask you a question about commercial RE law.
yep. comrade.
He is a sharp little poster
That impressive "Google Flu Trends" graph shows the incidence of Google searches about the flu.
Don't mistake it for data about actual cases of the flu.
"it was apparent that economic growth was back in positive territory."
Really? For some people, perhaps... but at the expense of others.
Low monthly payments has been taken away from many CC users by increased interest rates and higher minimum payment requirements. The CC issuers stimulated repayment and decreased balances in the short term. The hit to consumer spending was significant but if a recovery is sustained you will see confidence return and the paid off/decreased balances will be viewed as available funds and will be spent. The upside to the CC issuers is they have a better income stream with a higher return. They have also washed out much of the dead weight through default. The risk here is the 'recovery' is short termed or the long term unemployment is stuck at over 10% and continues to rise.
The irony here is when taxes and fees are increased after the 2010 elections you will see more defaults, foreclosures, and small business failures. I am not sure how the FED is going to balance the need for increased taxes to feed the deficit with the need to keep the credit markets functioning. Dudley's virtuous cycle quickly reverses back into a vicious cycle with no tricks left to pull out of the FED's hat. That inflection point will reflect a falling dollar into the abyss of no return.
The 15.000 at the Cobo Center yesterday comes to most major population centers and the need to support many formerly deluded middle class,now permanently underclass, will drain the municipalities coffers increasing the need for higher taxes and fees. Cue more crisis.
Detroit poverty porn should be striking fear in everyone. When those events happen in your geographic area the realness of this crisis comes sharply in focus.
merchants of fear wrote:
Great info...I borrowed the gist of this for a blog post of my own. The message: emerging markets blow up all the time.
Hell To Pay wrote:
If TPTB manage to pull this one out by re-bubbling, the next one should be quite a doozy, given the additional systemic risk and the moral hazard of TBTF and the US Gov as the back-stop. I am still unconvinced that they will be able to continue to suspend disbelief and that this "recovery" will be smothered in the crib by UE and unsustainable debt burdens.
Pot legalization
gains momentum 
in CA Upcoming ballot measures setting up clash 
with feds over US drug policy.
It bugs me to no end whenever I hear Bernanke or someone else claim that the fed saved the world. They saved the ponzi debt from defaulting. They saved the banks from their own financial idiocy.
But the cost of these actions is being borne by everyone else. So now everyone has to bear the cost of banker mischief.
What a sham.
Confronted with big job losses and no sign the U.S. economy is ready to stand on its own, Democrats are working on a growing list of relief efforts, leaving for later how to pay for them, or whether even to bother.
booooyaaaa hahahahaha
tankers of jp4 heading to the Fed
km4 wrote:
It will be interesting to see who opposes this and how the fear-ads are structured. Should be fun to watch. 2009 Reefer Madness ads !!!
*@NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/8/2009 - 4:27 pm
It will be interesting to see who opposes this and how the fear-ads are structured. Should be fun to watch. 2009 Reefer Madness ads !!! *
Yes agree - where's Neil with his got popcorn
Angry Saver wrote:
You're looking at this ALL wrong. Think of it like watching the BEST pro sports team in the world, they are SO SO good - even people who don't understand the sport - admire their skills.
The Fed, and the Banksters, are just like that. The BEST at what they do. That should be admired. It's art.
"clash with feds over US drug policy. "
I thought USSC had already called it for the Feds under "Interstate Commerce Clause"
Gonzales v. Raich - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Probably the only time I have ever agreed with Thomas though.
"Respondent's local cultivation and consumption of marijuana is not "Commerce ... among the several States."
Certainly no evidence from the founding suggests that "commerce" included the mere possession of a good or some personal activity that did not involve trade or exchange for value. In the early days of the Republic, it would have been unthinkable that Congress could prohibit the local cultivation, possession, and consumption of marijuana."
All the
you want can be found using the 
in the comment bar.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said she is also considering a Republican proposal to allow money-losing companies to use their losses to get refunds of taxes paid in the previous five years
roflol...they don't have no stinkin money for refunds... that would be pure printing
to the moon!
Nobody should ever take TPTB lightly.
The shadows were not hired because they were stupid.
Angry Saver wrote:
But that IS their world. I'm sure they have paid visits to the floor of the exchanges and banker boardrooms, but I doubt they have set foot on an actual production line or factory floor.
they already tried this with the homebuilders last year or two years ago. I believe it failed. Just another way to shift risk to the taxpayers.
Blackwaterwannabe wrote:
It's natural selection at work. That's why Merica has always been successful, pure unregulated natural selection. The smartest amoral scum-bags now own and control the entire country. The best have won.
Edit: THE PEASANTS WHO ARE ABOUT TO BE SCREWED SALUTE YOU!!!
what a piece of work. Gangis Khan would blush.
ALL YOUR COUNTRY ARE BELONG TO US !
~splat
Blackhalo --
I did really like Thomas's opinion on that one. The majority has this long, convoluted argument... While Thomas says, in essence, "If it's not interstate and it's not commerce, I don't see how it's interstate commerce"
Tragic, not surprising, and gholishly-almost-funny: (OT)
Meleanie Hain, the pistol-carrying Lebanon mom who received national attention for taking a loaded gun to her daughter’s soccer game, was shot to death Wednesday night with her husband in an apparent murder-suicide, police said.
Hain, 31, and her husband, Scott, 33, were pronounced dead by Lebanon County Coroner Dr. Jeffrey Yocum shortly after 8:30 p.m. at their home at Second Avenue and East Grant Street, Lebanon, police said.
The couple’s three children were home at the time and were not injured. They are staying with relatives and friends, police said.
Lawyer Liz asked how homebuilders managed to be here still - give them refunds of taxes paid in prior years and voila.
Thanks for the reminder. I'd forgotten, too.
The SCOTUS has ruled the federal government can enforce federal drug laws at the state level. The trick California is trying to pull is mandate that no state level law enforcement will cooperate with Federal law enforcement in any pot investigations or prosecute in state courts. Can California cover the loss of federal money to local law enforcement through the gains in taxes on pot? That will decide who wins in the legalization battle.
I'm not betting on California.
No they haven't. The best part of the movie is yet to be. Grab your popcorn and see.
Rosethorn,
Yeah and the U.S. is no emerging market so it can't blow up...you think?
Externalized Costs wrote:
Well they could save a ton also in reduced court cases and incarceration expenses. If it all goes to Federal court, Cali gets to pass the buck.
Blackhalo wrote:
The dirty secret is that an unknowable portion of the RRE/CRE/REIT lending is/was coming back to the banks via interest prepayments. That extend and pretend is going to be the first to stop.
and press releases that initial vaccine shipments have begun.
Time to cede from the union ! Join TX, AZ, NM, OR and WA as the "New Western Confederacy"
~splat
"Can California cover the loss of federal money to local law enforcement through the gains in taxes on pot? That will decide who wins in the legalization battle.
I'm not betting on California. "
Don't forget about reduced prison cost. Lot's of pot smokers in those jails.
Rob Dawg wrote:
If lenders are BK if the loss is recognized, why would they ever cease to extend? What will ever force them to do so?
If pot could be made 'legal', then CA could legalize prostitution and tax it. They need the money! Think of all the 'underground economy' business that is not taxed.
I prefer "The State of mp"
We even have our own flag.
I think the issue over medical marijuana is not whether it will be legalized, but who will get to tax it. Look for the federal government to legalize and tax it like booze and tabacky. California will be S.O.L.
merchants of fear wrote:
Might be good for tourism. Think of all those out of work RE agents and "actresses" out there. With that level of talent, it might be a huge draw.
Look for the federal government to legalize and tax it like booze and tabacky.
Not in this century.
Lot's of pot smokers in those jails.
Not true at all in California. Or, rather, that's not what put them there.
California can't legalize marijuana; it can only de-criminalize it.
Respectfully disagree. It is the only hope of CA and many other state and municipalities.
It will be done. I'll put a 10 spot on that.
Missoula in 2006 passed an ordinance instructing the city police to make marijuana citations/arrests their lowest priority. The DA backed this up by saying he wouldn't press charges under an ounce. The arrests for marijuana increased over the following two years. Law enforcement simply found another reason to arrest or cite and then added the marijuana charges to those primary charges. Now you have to ask yourself which came first, the marijuana discovery or the original infraction the person was stopped for? You decide.
Understanding the dynamic between law enforcement at the patrol level with the political oversight is key to understanding much about American society. Men with guns don't like listening to those who don't carry guns. Simplistic but accurate.
No, I think Mad Max is possible for us. I just think before shifting their investments overseas, you've got to be as careful with your research as you would with domestic investments. Fleeing to invest in say Brazil isn't going to help any more than fleeing to municipal bonds.
Not in this century.
Maybe not in this decade, but definitely in the next.
Rob Dawg
It's worse than that. REITs have been raising new cash, by paying fat fees to the banks who will rate them positively and shove their junk offerings into clients' mutual funds
Feckless Ness wrote:
I can't image this happening with the Feds yet. Way too much "hippy" baggage amongst certain segments of the voting population. There's more to pot for these people than just drugs. There's the "gateway" issue, the "uncontrolled actions" issues (visualize naked fornicatin' harlots dancing in a hedonist pot-induced orgy), the "hippy free love" issue (which brings in more sex). Naaaa, ain't gonna happen in the entire USA, way too much sex.
Its gonna be hard to pay for Stimulus I, II and 40,000 new troops to Afganistan. Well, not really, we'll just print:
WASHINGTON (AP) - Confronted with big job losses and no sign the U.S. economy is ready to stand on its own, Democrats are working on a growing list of relief efforts, leaving for later how to pay for them, or whether even to bother.
My Way News - Proposals to create jobs add up to second stimulus
Nuke wrote:
My TRAIN stimulus still looking like a winner (see glossary). It can't lose.
NoARealAmerican..
Do you have any hope for humanity.....i mean do you think the peasants will ever get smarter so that they wont keep voting to power the blood sucking vampire squids...
I am not sure how the Vampire squids operate in the more socialised places in europe..
Norway is a little better place for peasants.....free health care...35 days paid vacation...an year of maternity leave....unlimited sick leave......70% of one's salary for two years as unemployment benefits.....unemployment rate is also not bad.
not saying that above is good for business....but WTF i care....i am a peasant and i would love to bring the above system to this country.
my relative has a small business, he keeps getting harassed by his employees all the time.
NOTaREAL - if we could anticipate anything like a normal, stable decade ahead, I'd bet on legal pot with a federal tax within that time, especially under a universal healthcare system. Now, if we go Mad Max, quien sabe?
If you're planning for the Mad Max Scenario, forget financial instruments.
They won't help you.
"then CA could legalize prostitution and tax it."
I thought they already taxed banksters.
the games REITs are playing with the loss carryback provisions....
GTA Golf Trust to merge with drug firm
Turning its sights from fairways to pharmaceuticals, Charleston-based Golf Trust of America Inc. said [it] is merging with a Texas drug company. The agreement would transform privately held Pernix Therapeutics Inc. of Houston into a publicly traded company....
The company, which was created in the 1990s to invest in golf courses, fell on hard times as the value of its layouts plummeted. It decided in 2001 to liquidate its holdings and go out of business, but in late 2007, at the urging of a newly installed board of directors, shareholders scratched that plan in order to seek out other opportunities.
I prefer "The State of mp"
We even have our own flag.
With chipmunk rampant?
The 'endless' wars and no-bid contracts are not part of the 'real' economy...it's part of the 'military-industrial-computer-complex'.
That's a good idea for the passport cover.
Basel Too
Unbelievable
The fact that CA's hope for the future is pot production is an indicator that it's hopeless.
If you're planning for the Mad Max Scenario, you'd want to consider productive assets.
"The 'endless' wars and no-bid contracts are not part of the 'real' economy...it's part of the 'military-industrial-computer-complex'."
But the real taxes paid to fund those are part of the real economy and have a tremendous impact on every aspect of living in the home of the free.
It's not much different from hanging your hopes on wine production, except you can consume more wine than pot in one sitting. Will have to equalize that through price.
poic wrote:
Banksters are the Johns, congress the ho's... O' the pimpdaddy?
Now that I think about it, pot tends to induce a Soma-like apathy in its consumers. Controlling the masses should be strong federal incentive for legalization.
"Banksters are the Johns, congress the ho's... O' the pimpdaddy? "
Not me. Yu?
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
I think Jim Simons goes a little deeper than that, EHP.
Externalized Costs,
Agreed. War costs money that someone must pay. The sad thing is the War in Afganistan is becoming another Vietnam with no protest movement this time however.
"Now that I think about it, pot tends to induce a Soma-like apathy in its consumers. Controlling the masses should be strong federal incentive for legalization."
pot makes people too lazy to get off their ass. Bad for the retailers. I recommend legalizing meth. I hear it makes you real active.
/totally snark
We will be out of Afganistan in two years.
techy246 wrote:
Well, I’m not much in the "hope" department.
Peasants are peasants. 70% worship authority (35% for the socialist mommy-party and 35% for the kick-ass daddy-party). This is probably normal. The nobility leading the dumbasses to their destruction is what the history of humanity is about. This can’t be changed.
Europe is different than here. Each country is generally ethnically pure. They historically distrust each-other, which brings the individual countries together (tribalism). The Italians have socialist health care because they are all Italians; and those damn Germans have it so we are too. This will change as the countries mix more. Normal human meanness will split the rich from poor, just like here. Plus, 50 years ago, they had most of the testosterone beaten out of them. This helped purge their societies of maleness for a few decades.
But, the US is exactly what you'd expect a country to look like that had no fear of other countries, which means - nothing to pull-them-together as a nation, and is a conceited over-testosteroned macho mess.
The only thing that might save the peasants here, is when they realize that the smart amoral scum-bags from both political parties are the same AND are both screwing them. But, I don't see that happening unless the majority racial group starts suffering in large numbers. And, if they do, the results might not be pleasant for "those people". Right now, most people don’t really even notice anything “bad” is happening.
Well, off to the health club.
War is a racket and very profitable. NARA's amoral scumbags figured this out centuries ago. The rest of us buy the story and march in the parades. Oh, and die of course. Someone has to die or it wouldn't be a real war.
There is no superpower backing the Taliban. That is where the Vietnam analogy breaks down.
merchants of fear wrote:
No draft, yet. Or deferments for the sons of Senators...
Where's the sex here Country Joe & the Fish Monterey Pop '67 - Section 43
( section 43 was Ronnie criminalization for LSD )
YouTube - Country Joe & The Fish
Used to be a better vid with great comments but YouTube took it down
Looks like someone is realizing that "No you don't need a $2000 grill to make hamburgers and hot dogs"
craigslist | Page Not Found
patientrenter wrote:
elaborate if you want, but I don't know where you're going with that
"There is no superpower backing the Taliban."
There's where the logic starts falling apart in who we are fighting. The US's material support of the "freedom fighters" was key to them winning against the USSR. They were getting the crap kicked out of them until we got involved.
According to all reports we are currently getting the crap kicked out of us. Begs the question where the material support for the Taliban is coming from? Read an article yesterday that the level of fraud and corruption among the Afghanistan "government" is providing a conduit of arms and funding to the Taliban. All supplied by the US government.
Conjure, son of mp and I are also off to the health club.
Where the coffee pours thick, son of mp always tells the waitress to "burn it," and the food comes in plastic baskets wrapped in grease-drenched waxed paper.
I should invite my cardiologist.
According to all reports we are currently getting the crap kicked out of us. Begs the question where the material support for the Taliban is coming from? Read an article yesterday that the level of fraud and corruption among the Afghanistan "government" is providing a conduit of arms and funding to the Taliban. All supplied by the US government.
Yeah, that's a problem. However, not an insurmountable one. The US experience in Iraq circa 2008/2009 shows that it is possible to stabilize a country after a period of extreme sectarian violence.
I suspect, however, Obama, after increasing the troop levels in Afganistan and pursuing a more aggressive strategy, will soon tire of the war and withdraw.
Externalized Costs wrote:
The USA of course. Via ME oil revenues.
Nuke wrote:
Wha? Iraq != Afghanistan. The Iraqi civilian population, actually wanted some level of peace and stability and are largely far more educated and moderate than Afghanis. Plus Iraq has an economy that is not dependent on opium production and has actual trading partners. And a far less corrupt local government.
EHP, I thought you were calling him out, so to speak, as the godfather of automated trading, which 90% of the people on this blog would equate with evil. I can say with certainty that his contributions go well beyond that, and others created and developed automated trading before Jim. I'll leave it at that.
"Plus Iraq has an economy that is not dependent on opium production and has actual trading partners"
Now if they could just find some minerals, oil, or something exportable besides opium in Afghanistan, maybe there would be some hope for that country.
"I suspect, however, Obama, after increasing the troop levels in Afganistan and pursuing a more aggressive strategy, will soon tire of the war and withdraw."
I'm not sure about Pres Obama's appetite for war but mine is fully satiated. I'm a former Army combat medic.
The Vietnam War comparison bears up to scrutiny if you examine the morale of our troops. Repeated deployments and a ghost like enemy is wearing them thin.
American troops in Afghanistan losing heart, say army chaplains - Times Online
If CA decriminalizes marijuana, the net reduction in law enforcement costs and increase in tax revenue would likely be enough to offset the loss of federal funds allocated to state and local drug enforcement subsidization. Besides, California has a large representation in the House obviously. Would CA's representatives allow punitive withholding of federal dollars? Don't think so...the House is responsible for the federal budget.
Tally of Phone Calls to Geither, Wall Street speed dial gets Tim Geithner directly - Yahoo! Finance
Don't forget Illinois when talking about California or NY, Illinois State Comptroller Dan Hynes Says State Finances A Mounting Crisis, Things Getting Worse - cbs2chicago.com -- only 3 months behind on accounts payable
TARP Deadbeats, Reuters.com
Obama will do a power sharing deal with the Taliban and move us out. Maybe a couple bases out in the sticks where it will suck to be assigned.
"Now if they could just find some minerals, oil, or something exportable besides opium in Afghanistan, maybe there would be some hope for that country."
Did you read this?
OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR; Beijing's Afghan Gamble - NY Times
What do ya'll think of Martin Armstrong?
"Did you read this?"
No, I didn't. Thanks for that. Well, well. No sign of the Chinese sending troops, is there?
Fu*king A+++.
And the scumbags behind the campaigns. It always boils down to: Cui Bono?
Cartels Face an Economic Battle
U.S. Marijuana Growers Cutting Into Profits of Mexican Traffickers
Cartels Face an Economic Battle - washingtonpost.com
patientrenter,
I didn't mean to limit the scope of Simons' career to just automated trading, but I do think it defines him. I didn't mean to whip up a mob by referring to automated trading -- to me automated trading is just fine, but it is the asymmetry of opportunity that is a problem, and it would be worth limiting trading speed to improve markets. You sound like you know more about him than just from the media, I would enjoy whatever stories you have to share. I know about his bias towards the sciences and math, which I appreciate, but the cynic in me believes a significant portion of Medallion's returns have been from more than just intelligent arbitrage. Did you see about their involvement with Madoff?
Examining the Iraqi oil field contracts going to China is also an eye opener. Niall Ferguson nailed it with "Chimerica".
g'night
What “Chimerica” Hath Wrought - Niall Ferguson - The American Interest Magazine
Haven't heard much about Mexico lately. Is the country still falling apart?
Martin Armstrong. For what it's worth he said in August that the market would rally in to Sept. If the DOW didn't break 11K then another leg down lasting 2 1/2 years
I've done work for many military personnel, and their "grip" on what is happening over in Afghan.
Funny how they still buy the party line...like we're trying to "help them plant corn".....
Truth is that Opium was almost decimated during the Taliban regime. Guess where it's @ now?
Do people really think TPTB would forsake the Billions that are coming out of that country for the merriment of the banking system?
The flop side of addictions, whether heroin, meth, or alcohol, is it creates a fundamental NEED to work as fast as possible for (ultimately, given the circumstances) @ the lowest wage available. It also supports the other industries of security, police, and the prison industry.
What could go wrong with that ?
I worked on a case that involved fraud in Iraq. I was impressed at the time, but fraud in 2 digit billions is not that impressive anymore.
blackwater,
You should check out Armstrong. He is real big into cycles and how unstoppable they are.
nova,
What, you were Condoleeza's oil for food bagman? : )
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said she is also considering a Republican proposal to allow money-losing companies to use their losses to get refunds of taxes paid in the previous five years
Let's hope she has a fit of sanity and tells the GOP to pound sand. This is the same "tax loss carryover" nonsense that the NAHB tries to bribe Congress into passing every year at this time. Last year it got defeated after enough people screamed bloody murder, then again they tried to put it in the porkulus but that largely failed ( I think it was Olympia Snowe who managed to get it restricted to small businesses only.)
EHP,
It is/was a sealed case.
Lot of stuff got swept under the carpet is my guess. I am just a midlevel monkey tho...
"Fed's Tarullo: "Considerable uncertainty""
I understand they pay these idiots quite a sum of money for this stuff. For free he could just come here and be rid of the uncertainty. Moron.
The case was not double digit billions I should add. It was part of a pattern that had to go close to that in my estimation. I started doing reading on it. There were a spate of books about it, and then it just disapeared.
"WFC took a $1B write off on its sub prime HELOC portfolio; Ms Woo Ho left soon after that. Now she is in UCBH"
She was fired from WFC, from what I have heard.
Sorry, couldn't resist.
There, I Fixed It: Epic Kludges + Jury Rigs Baby Bongtle «
EHP,
Do you read the story I am writing per chance?
Martin Armstrong. Just looked him up for the first time, although I had heard about his Japanese ponzi conviction at some point.
Very colorful. Lot of writing. From the 2 charts on his unofficial blog, http://photos1.blogger.com/x/blogger/5682/3176/1600/270830/8.6%20Cycle%20gif%20-%202020..jpg http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_1I-w9Gxl9mw/Sf_ZIRs60ZI/AAAAAAAAAQ4/XGu5xV3GlTQ/s1600-h/Economic+Confidence+Model+Chart+Long+Term.png
It says the turning down point was supposed to be early April with no bottom until mid 2011. Not criticizing or supporting the opinion, but be careful of anyone who changes their opinion without admitting there ever was a different prior opinion (for all I know he did disclose the change in opinion)
nova
I pop in every few weeks and read a chunk
Looks like someone is realizing that "No you don't need a $2000 grill to make hamburgers and hot dogs
...and if you can't come up with the scratch for that one, try this:
There, I Fixed It: Epic Kludges + Jury Rigs Wire Rack Grill «
U.S. Marijuana Growers Cutting Into Profits of Mexican Traffickers
Cartels Face an Economic Battle - washingtonpost.com
Well, then expect firefights in the woods near you coming soon.
I wish I had a friend with the name Wu Hu
Thanks EHP. I am going read more of his work in the am when I am sharper.
Damn, CRVIX seems to be crashing tonight.
Go Long!
rosethorn,
Would you believe I prognosticated last fall there would be an increase in gang killings as market demand decreased, because killing is the one way to maintain the profit per gang member that makes such a venture possible?
"Would you believe I prognosticated last fall there would be an increase in gang killings as market demand decreased, because killing is the one way to maintain the profit per gang member that makes such a venture possible?"
Gang/gov't....machs nichts.
Misean,
by that same token, I expect(ed) Wall St employment to be cut 50% and compensation by 50% in order to return to it's relative share of US corporate earnings (as reported to the SEC, not IRS, so tax havens shouldn't skew the figure) with a less robust growth of credit. Foreign companies won't come flocking like they once might have because of reputation and trust. Could fall even more as I can see how the innovations in computers and communication could lower the labor cost, increase quality of financial transactions
HGTV is on. My wife is watching it. Orlando is a great place to buy a house now. Lot's of inventory and prices are dropping.
We will be out of Afganistan in two years.
And back in...
Why? Pakistan?
From this transcript of an interview with Ahmed Rashid, a Pakistani Journalist:
Mr. AHMED RASHID (Journalist; Author, "Descent into Chaos: The United States and the Failure of Nation Building in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia"): Well, I think if the commitment slows down in any way, I think the Taliban will take Kabul within six months to a year, and the situation will deteriorate enormously. The Taliban will then seek local allies: Pakistan, Iran, possibly China, the Arab Gulf states. And we will be back to the 1990s, where of course the civil war in Afghanistan was fueled by neighboring countries with various proxies.
Think we'll just stand by and watch?
Nemo wrote:
He's supposed to be the dumb one right?
There is a form of loss carryback which is quite effective already. It's called bankruptcy.