I think my "luxury" apartment complex is having financial problems. They have some repairs in the parking garage and with one of the trash chutes that isn't getting fixed. They're offering the residents more and more incentives to help find new tenants. But it suddenly feels like things are falling into disrepair. I wonder how the big empty condo building across the street is doing.
How do these results compare to the predictions from Mayor Bloomberg's office (I think that's whose predictions you posted some time ago.)? Sorry, can't search for your old post right now.
BTW you gotta love how the dollar is the new yen and we're exactly back to where we were a few years back (except the real estate bubbles are in Asia now).
We've learned absolutely nothing.
I fear it's going to take a much more serious beating before we actually do.
Jesse on Yves' site quotes somebody else quoting Chris Whalen:
“Why is liquidity going into the financial sector? It’s because the real economy is dying [and] everyone is fleeing into the stocks and bonds because they’re liquid at the moment,” Whalen says. “That’s not a good sign.”
Jumping on the Ponzi wagon is the only way to make money in this economy. And that's just the way Goldman Sachs likes it, at least until somebody in the government decides to invalidate the GS get out of jail free card.
will your stocks go up by a like amount to balance the loss in dollar terms?
I've been wondering how that plays out. See my comment above about PM v. USD movement. When the USD gets weaker, do people sell their equities to capture the more useless fiat? Why? Examples of how the relationship plays out would be welcomed.
ac,
Is there such a thing as a non-luxury apartment building near you? I'm living here in Chicago and haven't seen anything that doesn't claim to be luxury.
I've been following some Chicago-related housing blogs and talking to people and I'm seeing some new real-estate terminology being used more and more. When talking about whether a location is desirable or not, the debate centers on whether it is in the Green Zone or not. I laughed at first, but as the local newspapers rediscover that crime sells it becomes more and more apparent that it's completely true.
Easy credit and inflationary stimulus destroy economies.
OH, that lesson? But what lesson would the people that matter learn? Meaning, the smart amoral scum-bags who currently run everything, and are looting the system now might be learning something else.
I think the lesson is.. "Looting the economy for over a decade while destroying its long term viability is bad... unless you and your colleagues are the ones doing the looting".
~splat
ac,
Is there such a thing as a non-luxury apartment building near you? I'm living here in Chicago and haven't seen anything that doesn't claim to be luxury.
For this area it's quite nice... I'm not in an area like Chicago and most apartments around here are 2 story wooden boxes. The rent where I am is close to 3x the average for the area. I feel kinda foolish sometimes...
Hello Wall^Street, (Hello, hello.)
How'd things go for you today?
Don't you miss employees.
Since they up and walked away?
And I'll bet you dread to spend another lonely night with me,
But loanly Wall^Street, I'll keep you company.
Hello window of opportunity, (Hello, hello.)
Well, I see that you're still here.
Aren't you lonely,
Since our dilemma disappeared?
Well look here, is that a uptick in the corner of your vein?
Now don't you try to tell me that it's restraint.
Liquidity went away and left us all a loan the way we planned.
Guess we'll have to learn to get along without it if we can.
Hello glass ceiling, (Hello, hello.)
I'm gonna stare at you a while.
You know I can't sleep,
So won't you blog with me a while?
We gotta all stick together or else I'll lose my mind.
I gotta feelin' the market will be gone a long, long time.
Examples of how the relationship plays out would be welcomed.
Imagine all stocks lie along a spectrum.
One end, containing the most stable, conservative companies, should be labeled "risk assets."
The other end has no label. Call it Russian roulette.
In times of massive economic uncertainty, leverage, doubt and diclocation (like now) stocks on the risk asset end of the spectrum should be fairly stable or decline a bit.
Stocks on the Russian roulette end should go nearly to zero.
Stocks do well when economic conditions are stable and steady growth, taxes are low, governments are solvent, wars aren't happening, and consumers are spending without hocking everything they own.
What's happening now is a combination of marketing (convincing people that stocks are actually a safe bet in troubled times) and speculative leverage. Both are bubbles. All of the people being marketed stocks aren't Mom and Pop.
They include pensions, hedge fund managers, etc. Just not that smart and mostly gullible and narrow-minded.
OH, that lesson? But what lesson would the people that matter learn? Meaning, the smart amoral scum-bags who currently run everything, and are looting the system now might be learning something else.
Unfortunately sometimes they have to learn the hard way from the general population after they've caused enough misery. I don't want to see us get there, but more and more I wonder if it's inevitable.
Who needs a strong dollar when you have stock and commodity gains like these.
Even in Euro terms stocks are up today, and of course the goldbugs will be cheering alongside the bulls. Which could be a telling sign.
All major equity indices are up over 1.5%, gold's at a new all-time high around $1,043, and oil is extending gains past $71. Materials, industrials, and financials are on fire.
While 10-year treasuries are in the red, investors are still only asking for 3.26% from the US government.
If there's a red flag, then this is it. If indeed the dollar is in big trouble, these treasury buyers will be as well. Yet if the treasury market is right, even moderately so, then the dollar scare will be wrong.
In any case, another two days like this and we'll be welcoming Dow 10,000.
If US dollar takes a hit and exports do pick up, wouldn't current exporter currencies take a hit and thereby become even more competitive? Is this a death spiral?
dryfly,
I have seen vacancy rate charts for NYC CRE from the mayor's office, and various CRE brokers but they only seem to cover back to the 90s at most. The Federal Reserve has a bunch of good NY data, St. Louis Fed: New York , the most telling of which is employment in financial services. Everything else seems to be holding its own other than information employment
Why, the politically smart amoral scum-bags, of course. Looking out for OUR interests (or so the dumbasses will always believe - the eternal recurrence of the same).
I would guess there is some coupling there, but at some point America hits a wall, regardless of currency relative value changes/manipulation, that we realize, not matter how much we shift currency value, we do not produce enough of value to justify the value of goods we import. We are a country that sucks the world dry and therefore unsustainable. We need a shift in our economy to be more productive and provide more things and service of value to the rest of the world.
What's happening now is a combination of marketing (convincing people that stocks are actually a safe bet in troubled times) and speculative leverage. Both are bubbles. All of the people being marketed stocks aren't Mom and Pop.
What I was thinking is: You have a USD at a starting point valued at 0. You buy two stocks with 100 USD: 40 USD/shr (Stock A) and 60 USD/shr (Stock B). The relative value of the USD goes down to -0.10. Now, I'm thinking that the values of Stock A & B don't change until someone buys/sells shares in them. If A is impacted by a strengthening USD and B is impacted by a weakening USD, you would imagine people would buy A and sell B with the stated dynamic in place. Is that how it would all play out sans a short-term ForEx shock?
We will forage in the neighborhoods, we will forage on the interstates, we will forage around the malls, we will forage around forests, we will never go hungry.
I am saving to take my family to Italy in the spring, but if the Euro is above 1.5 then I may not go. However its a once/twice in a lifetime thing so I may still go.
advantages: Anything exportable pendulum of profit swings in the opposite direction of where the dollar is going, tourism by foreigners traditionally picks up-because prices are so reasonable, as long as we remain stable as a country. Great opportunity to sell the amazing aspects about our country, most of which happen to be natural, untouched parts.
disadvantages: Anything imported goes up in price by as much as the dollar goes down, and if the dollar really starts a slide, you'll see much less variety of goods offered on the shelves.
*M (profile) wrote on Tue, 10/6/2009 - 12:35 pm
I am saving to take my family to Italy in the spring, but if the Euro is above 1.5 then I may not go. However its a once/twice in a lifetime thing so I may still go. *
U.S. Dollar fell 35 Percent Over 18 Years from 1984 to 2002 - The U.S. Dollar then Dropped Over 40 Percent from 2002 to 2007: How the Dollar is Being Systematically Devalued since the 1980s. 5 Reason why a Weak Dollar is bad for America.
This is obviously negative propaganda from people who hate Merica. You can tell based on this sentence: "any average Americans in dual income families are wondering why they are earning the same and working twice as hard."
All REAL Mericans know there are no AVERAGE Mericans, we're ALL above average. The above average people - which is the MAJORITY of people - are doing just fine.
vacationing in Europe gets more expensive (except for Iceland)
One of the travel magazines my wife gets (we also have that anonymous benefactor that pays for our subscriptions) had a detailed section a couple months ago that demonstrated that vacationing in Europe has actually become cheaper despite the dollar weakening. Hotels and restaurants especially have cut prices to keep the Americans coming. Or at least try to keep Americans coming.
Might be, not enough peasant misery yet tho. They still believe in the mythology of Merica.
Looking at the younger generations in my family I realize they'll be happy so long as they have access to Facebook and/or World of Warcraft plus two roast beef sandwiches a day.
It makes me wonder if the average human being is becoming insignificant with respect to the future.
Mainstream economists think a falling dollar will increase US exports This is true in normal times, but we are not living in normal times. We are seeing the unraveling of the most complicated financial system devised by man. The exporting countries will not allow unlimited US dollar depreciation, nor will they simply buy US assets with fallin US dollars. They will slap on import restrictions, and will allow the $ to fall. Hello 1930s trade wars.
*Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 10/6/2009 - 12:35 pm
disadvantages: Anything imported goes up in price by as much as the dollar goes down, and if the dollar really starts a slide, you'll see much less variety of goods offered on the shelves. *
Yet if the price of imports goes up, it will be more economical to produce things here, and more people will have jobs, and we'll see our dollars coming back to the US of A to build factories to make it viable for foreign countries to compete here, etc.......
How does that add up as a disadvantage?
All REAL Mericans know there are no AVERAGE Mericans, we're ALL above average. The above average people - which is the MAJORITY of people - are doing just fine.
As long as REAL Mericans can stand WORKING in FACTORIES (gosh, isn't THAT just for LOSERS) and still support the bling they are used too. But, they'll be competing with their Chinese and India peasant counterparts so I'd suspect wages might he slightly depressed.
On closer inspection, my green today is all attributable to a drop in PPD, which got a subpoena from the SEC. Could be another home run for Reggie Middleton.
"We need a shift in our economy to be more productive and provide more things and service of value to the rest of the world."
.....I think that will happen involuntarily when the dollar is devalued to such an extent, buying a $29. toaster oven from China will cost twice as much - afterwhich profitable for Americans to manufacture again.
"If the dollar were to get whacked, exporting our foodstuffs looks like a lot more attractive proposition, except for those of us that like to eat..."
....well, all of us can stand to go on a diet. And BSR is giving a gardening class "Growing Your Own Food For Dummies"
*Anon2 (profile) wrote on Tue, 10/6/2009 - 12:40 pm
Mainstream economists think a falling dollar will increase US exports This is true in normal times, but we are not living in normal times. We are seeing the unraveling of the most complicated financial system devised by man. The exporting countries will not allow unlimited US dollar depreciation, nor will they simply buy US assets with fallin US dollars. They will slap on import restrictions, and will allow the $ to fall. Hello 1930s trade wars. *
In the '30s were were net exporters; not today. Trade restrictions hurt us in the '30s, but perhaps not so much today.
In the '30s were were net exporters; not today. Trade restrictions hurt us in the '30s, but perhaps not so much today.
Ignoring the final trade balance, you'd be surprised how much back-and-forth goes on across the border. Don't kid yourself, a trade war right now would destroy the economy in a heartbeat. Not that I personally think it can really be avoided...it's already begun, just not well advertised.
I think most mainstream economists realize that there is no economy strong enough to absorb the collective output of the US manufacturing sector, no matter what state it happens to be in right now. If the good ol' USA became the recipient of a 20% built-in competitive advantage for exports (due to a devalued USD), they would destroy the productive capacity of any economy with a higher exchange rate by flooding them with cheap goods, thereby destroying the manufacturing sector. WTO would become a swear word, and it wouldn't take too long before tariff walls were erected everywhere.
weak dollars are great for the tiny part of society that exports.
Unfortunately.. as we don't make any of the component parts here and have to import about 99.9% of component BOMs. It doesn't really help all that much. One anecdote, a gold plated connector I have to use, made by a company in Germany. My raw cost of these went from $0.80 to $1.50 over around 2 years, now that kinda sucks as cost for 1000 leaps from $800.00 to $1500.00, I just have to eat it
There is naturally no US supplier who makes a part anything like it, so I'd like to see how I could locally source that part if no one makes it. The same is true of literally thousands of parts.
~splat
feralpig (profile) wrote on Tue, 10/6/2009 - 12:57 pm
"In the '30s were were net exporters; not today. Trade restrictions hurt us in the '30s, but perhaps not so much today. "
I agree, except for imported oil. What's the domestic substitute for that?
Conservation and the Picken's plan. Hey! I'm a conservative; it's time to conserve
If you want a cheaper European vacation, might I suggest Turkey? I just spent 9 days there and loved it. Only thing is you just need to be vigilant with your money and not get suckered into paying tourist prices for everything. Just do your research.
We can compete with China and India if we invest capital to making our workers much more efficient through the use of eletronics, automation, etc. However why invest when you get taxed twice on returns, once the company gets taxed, then you get taxed on your capital gains. So its a 60% ish haircut for taxes on money you invested to make the USA more productive!
Didn't europe changes this so now europe is more favorable to capital investments (factories)?
I'm OK with taxing gains, but do it only one time (company or individual)
Mish is usually a bit naive (gov't is not printing money to name but one example) however he has it right IMO. Denninger doesn't really cover what the actual use of FRB is. His argument is totally based on what it should be doing and not what it's used for. I don't disagree with his thesis however the use of FRB is not what he presents it as.
It's alot like the using the TARP money for credit creation......and we know how well that one worked out...
Assuming we weren't exporting anything made out oil.
It would all fall apart fairly quickly, I have no doubt. But there is not a 1:1 oil-cost to final-good-cost relationship. If oil doubles, the proportion of oil within a final good may cause the cost of that final good to rise, but as long as it's less than the equivalent change in the exchange rate there would still be a profit opportunity there.
*noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 10/6/2009 - 1:01 pm
Ignoring the final trade balance, you'd be surprised how much back-and-forth goes on across the border. Don't kid yourself, a trade war right now would destroy the economy in a heartbeat. Not that I personally think it can really be avoided...it's already begun, just not well advertised.
I think most mainstream economists realize that there is no economy strong enough to absorb the collective output of the US manufacturing sector, no matter what state it happens to be in right now. If the good ol' USA became the recipient of a 20% built-in competitive advantage for exports (due to a devalued USD), they would destroy the productive capacity of any economy with a higher exchange rate by flooding them with cheap goods, thereby destroying the manufacturing sector. WTO would become a swear word, and it wouldn't take too long before tariff walls were erected everywhere. *
Noob,
Don't worry; we'd need to keep NAFTA, since tariffs against Mexico would just encourage Mexicans to swim the Rio Grande, and since a lot of stuff we need comes from Canada. We don't really need so much to become a net exporter as we need to buy locally, within the NAFTZ and perhaps from SA. Getting to a zero balance of trade would help our economy a lot, though I'd worry about IC production and packaging.
"Can't burn coal under cap & trade. I wish we would build nuclear plants, but I don't see that happening politically. "
Before too much longer, we're going to have to get real about domestic energy sources.
I also favor nuclear, but the lead time is too long to solve the near term problems.
So cap& trade is going to have to be sidelined, and domestic oil drilling is going to have to be allowed again.
Washington is still blocking offshore drilling. They may have to let go of that position.
Federal regulators in the Bush administration blocked attempts by state governments to prevent predatory lending practices that resulted in the financial crisis now stalking the American economy, a new study from the University of North Carolina says.
In 2004, the Office of the Currency Comptroller, an obscure regulatory agency tasked with ensuring the fiscal soundness of America's banks, invoked an 1863 law to give itself the power to override state laws against predatory lending. The OCC told states they could not enforce predatory-lending laws, and all banks would be subject only to less-strict federal laws.
Now, a research paper (PDF) from UNC-Chapel Hill's Center for Community Capital shows that those anti-predatory lending laws had actually worked. States that had stricter regulations on issuing mortgages were found to have fewer foreclosures.
"We believe that these findings are remarkable, since they suggest an important and yet unexplored link between [anti-predatory lending laws] and foreclosures," the study's authors state.
As the dollar drops and import prices go up, politics will change. The exports that result from a long term dollar drop will ONLY take place after the realization that the drop in the dollar IS TRULY long term and AFTER the investments are made (by godless ferners, no less) and AFTER the factories are online (and AFTER the ferners drop their own import restrictions too). The time in between is what will be interesting.
m-
Skip Milan other than the Duomo and if you are religiously inclined..the last supper...you won't miss anything. If you go there you can do it in one day easy. With regards to rates of exchange...it didn't matter in Milan everything was 2-3 x the price...I had lunch in the Galleria (I didn't really think I was splurging until I got the check.)...70 euro....for lunch.
Don't worry; we'd need to keep NAFTA, since tariffs against Mexico would just encourage Mexicans to swim the Rio Grande, and since a lot of stuff we need comes from Canada. We don't really need so much to become a net exporter as we need to buy locally, within the NAFTZ and perhaps from SA. Getting to a zero balance of trade would help our economy a lot, though I'd worry about IC production and packaging.
Since Mexico is North America's pool of cheap labour, and Canada is North America's pool of cheap resources, and the USA is North America's pool of productive capacity, I'm sure we'll end up trying to work something out. I don't have high hopes for a successful outcome (too much political baggage), but I imagine we'll try.
that's a lie, ocean beach is never warm, the waves are a wall, and it kills people frequently. oh, it is also possibly the worst spot for great whites on the .00001% chance you find one.
worst beach between san ysidro and bellingham, easy.
Pretty much sums this all up. Except no street goons yet to beat the sh*t out of everybody looking or walking like a damn commie Remember to teach your kids not to walk like a commie!
Internal politics is already banana republic quality, business side also, public education getting there, healthcare even below that and then the necessary excessive militarism is already there. A little bit more and Americans could be proud owners of world's most northern BANANA REPUBLIC! Something to aim for!
Obama postpones meeting with Dalai Lama
The Dalai Lama has met with the past three sitting U.S. presidents during his visits to Washington.
The DL is a great guy, but he's a political player and would not deny it. Kind of makes Obama look like a stiff (well, like more of one), but he's loathe is piss off China right now because of all that nice debt they continue to hold and to (somewhat) buy. Sadder than brushing off the DL is that, in the end, it has come to this.
My eyebrow raised when I read this, but after reflection I just don't know if I buy it. I know China can be vindictive, but would they really threaten the value of their entire national monetary reserve base simply to spite a feeble old man for political reasons? It seems a little extraordinary.
I just got back (a few weeks ago now). If it's your first trip you are almost guaranteed to spend HUGE amounts of money because you will be going to the places that all first-time tourist go. Be prepared to spend allot.
I've been going for years so I don't care about the Italian tourist stuff anymore (you can only look at so many 1000+ yo churches). I only go for the food and wine now. There's lots of small cities and towns that still have good values.
seriously, don't make me laugh this early in the day - cap and trade is yet another billion-plus subsidy to GS. no one will care in the slightest about green crapola when U6 hits 40%.
Hey h hack...easy now...I said it was warm.. I live next to it.. Here's a great white breaching right in front of the bel air beach club, which has water that even hepatitis runs away from...
weak dollars are great for the tiny part of society that exports.
Or faces export competition. Or for that matter buys imports - considering the deficits. If bought via reciprocal trade then different matter - we don't do that.
seriously, don't make me laugh this early in the day - cap and trade is yet another billion-plus subsidy to GS. no one will care in the slightest about green crapola when U6 hits 40%.
The funny thing is that if U6 gets even close to 40% and cap and trade dies, total emissions will be at their lowest level in many many years.
The "green" dining halls at the uni I work at realized the kiddies were tossing a lot of food. They would load up their trays with various dishes -- because it was easy and didn't cost anymore -- and leave a lot of it untouched.
I don't know where food services got the idea, but they took away the trays. And the kiddies stopped taking food they weren't going to eat, because it was not easy to balance four plates on their arms. They would actually have to get up and return to the line if they needed more food. Food "consumption" went down substantially.
I think there's a certain amount of "taking away the trays" we can do painlessly to curb food waste/consumption in this country.
seriously, don't make me laugh this early in the day - cap and trade is yet another billion-plus subsidy to GS. no one will care in the slightest about green crapola when U6 hits 40%.
It will be a huge new speculative market in which the entrenched players will be able to make mega-$ at the expense of anyone stupid enough to try and manufacture something in this country. It will just result in carbon-outsourcing to China where environmentalists end up having a nice rest at a state funded re-education facility. This assumes you believe the semi-religious fervor over AGW.
~splat
Spent my money on food and wine too. I didn't need to see more paintings or more churches...I went to the Louvre-10 or so years ago and it was like the Neal Armstrong moment....how do you top that? I did go into the Duomo....but the rest of the stuff was not for me. The only thing that gave me away as an american (or canadian) was that I had shorts on.....it was hot....latin machismo may be ingrained in the culture however I'm not going to sweat my balls off so I can appear to look "macho"...and it didn't matter that I spoke Italian......I was still the outsider....just like in Japan. But this is the mentality in any big city...
Hey MP I finally had a block of time to listen and watch the Janet Tavakoli interview you linked to. I wanted to say thank you and that I found it useful AND enjoyable. I liked how they lightly touched on the ways politics, economy, freedom and enforcement intertwine. I truly wish there had been time in the interview to talk more about the 70's and her life and impressions of Iran, but that is just personal wish. The next time I am talking to someone about this topic and trying to explain not only why I am so hot and bothered over it but also why the person I am speaking to should be too I can offer this link. If they will invest the time....
h hack...I've surfed the whole coast...their are many worse places to surf..btw, I actually was barreled at OB..now anyone surfing San Ysidiro is plain old stupid....Morro bay, Stinson and Salmon creek are more sharky but last fatal attack was in San diego..
definitely more land sharks in the US than great whites in the water
"Since Mexico is North America's pool of cheap labour, and Canada is North America's pool of cheap resources....."
We don' need no steenking cheap labor! We got lots of it unemployed now......much of it with degrees! Cheap resources? Heck - we just trade it for superior medical & dental work.
"I think there's a certain amount of "taking away the trays" we can do painlessly to curb food waste/consumption in this country."
Smaller portions?
We ate out the other night with relatives from out of town - otherwise we seldom eat out. I ate about one third of my angus beef hamburger, maybe one fourth of the steak fries, half a salad.
Admittedly I'm old and skinny, but why are people eating so much?
of course, the bay area is great place to surf. mavericks is the most macho spot in the lower 48. yes, many more land sharks on sand hill road and california st than the water kind.
"I fear it's going to take a much more serious beating "
California will require an extended beating. I'm not placing any odds on receivership. However, I think everyone in state government should be made to worry about it.
There have been an assortment of state takeovers of cities, counties, and school districts. Usually the target of the takeover screams about how it isn't their fault. Oddly, almost all of them are somehow cured over a period of years.
A recent takeover in CA was a school district, State Takeover of King City Jt. UHSD - Year 2009 (CA Dept of Education) "California established a process in 1991 to help school districts that become financially insolvent (Assembly Bill 1200, Chapter 1213, Statutes of 1991). If the state provides a loan to a school district, the State Superintendent takes over its governance and may appoint an administrator and other staff to get the school district back on sound financial footing. California has taken over seven school districts since this process was established: Richmond/West Contra Costa, Coachella Valley Unified, Compton Unified, Emery Unified, West Fresno Elementary, Oakland Unified, and Vallejo City Unified. Governance has been returned to two districts: Richmond/West Contra Costa and Compton Unified. The remaining districts continue under some state oversight until their state loans are repaid."
"The transitional currency in the move away from dollars, according to Chinese banking sources, may well be gold."
Ignoring the elephant in the room is getting more difficult.
PMs - especially gold - are the only other possible international reserve currency. With the comex & forex as the enforcers. Don't even need silly 'gold standards' or artificial BW-like accords -- those markets coupled via arbitrage will enforce discipline far better than any gov't treasury or central bank ever could. Bankers tread on them at their peril.
Yeah, right..... like they would ever peg to gold.
No they never would 'peg'. But they might use gold to buffer yuan valuations & help them peg to other currencies -- use it like a traditional 'reserve' now that dollar has failed in that role. I've been expecting that since the 90s... first w/ Japan... then OPEC... now the Chinese. Finally might be happening.
"There is naturally no US supplier who makes a part anything like it, so I'd like to see how I could locally source that part if no one makes it. The same is true of literally thousands of parts."
Let me give my own little contribution to "build American". If a number of people ask, there are a lot of foreign based firms who will seriously consider opening US plants. Japanese automakers are just one example. There are tons of others.
I have an American made Honda. I put American made Michelin tires on it.
i'm seeking the contrarian view, here... what would drive people back INTO the dollar right now?
Some sort of controversy showing that the paper gold/assets people thought they owned didn't actually exist? Maybe some sort of gold scandal at JPM or something?
landlord, war was the first answer that popped into my mind when I asked myself that question... war seems more likely than panic right now, no? what might be the impetus for a new 2008-style panic?
Hey CreditCriminal and H-Hack -
I saw some small sharks at La Jolla Shores last week. Little leapard sharks - but my 6 year old who I was snorkling with thought they were really cool. Also saw some rays - they scare me more. Ouchie.
Not quite the great whites you guys were talking about.
If we created an oil-based currency, and then used it to purchase oil, would the universe implode? Is that like dividing by zero?
Not a good candidate at all - it gets consumed, is difficult to store & subject to 'supply & demand'. More likely it too gets priced in the 'new reserve currency' - troy ozs/barrel... or some such.
Federal regulators in the Bush administration blocked attempts by state governments to prevent predatory lending practices that resulted in the financial crisis now stalking the American economy, a new study from the University of North Carolina says.
But I thought regulators were the solution to the problem, not the cause!
Some sort of controversy showing that the paper gold/assets people thought they owned didn't actually exist? Maybe some sort of gold scandal at JPM or something?
now, that's interesting. like a sudden realization that GLD doesn't really translate into bullion? ...even though it's pretty clear to anyone buying the paper that that is the case?
"My eyebrow raised when I read this, but after reflection I just don't know if I buy it. I know China can be vindictive, but would they really threaten the value of their entire national monetary reserve base simply to spite a feeble old man for political reasons? It seems a little extraordinary."
There are very few hot button won't give an inch issues with China. Tibet and Taiwan are two of them.
I always thought the black swan event would come from some innocuous comment on either side(China or US) or perceived insult or loss of face comment.
"there simply isn't enough gold to play that role anymore"
Sure there is - just effects 'the price'.
Also - you don't need a set number of ounces per dollar or euro - whatever - it won't be a strict 'standard' like ancient times... gov't treasury depts & central banks will just need enough to go back into comex & forex and 'support'. You don't need that much - just more than they got now.
The failing most people have grasping this concept is that it is some kind of 'fixed' standard - would not happen and wouldn't have to happen that way. The comex & forex would do all that 'work'.
I think its happening now whether they agree to it or not. China buying gold is telling me this.
Something going horribly wrong in China or Europe, Germany in particular.
it seems to me that these guys are doing the same thing we are... in spades. ROW is fully aware of the gig and they are going along with it. that appears to be pretty low risk.
so, maybe the thesis is: stay short the dollar and watch Iran and Pakistan very closely.
"We ate out the other night with relatives from out of town - otherwise we seldom eat out. I ate about one third of my angus beef hamburger, maybe one fourth of the steak fries, half a salad.
Admittedly I'm old and skinny, but why are people eating so much? "
MS
thanks for the news on Milan, I had planned to go through Europe on my way back to NYC...
know Milano quite well but given that I have friends to see perhaps I should find another route back and
not touch down there....
The food is priced so that a small portion costs the same as a large portion, or small portions simply aren't available. Resulting in the perception of a big portion as a good value. For a restaurant, the marginal profit for each additional ounce of portion size is large.
Declining prices and rents in RRE and CRE. High unemployment, high saving rate. Massive debt, personal, household, and national. Industrial overcapacity and slack resource utilization. No consumer-led recovery. Very little lending despite artificially low interest rates. Low household and business formation. And no end in sight for years and years. IMO, this is Japan, not Zimbabwe. A truly lost decade, or maybe more.
It's all about one's perspective....I just saw Milan as a big city that happened to be located in Italy. If I never go back there I wouldn't be disappointed. I'm sure it would be different if I had some friends there.....the one place I would go back to is this place:
The failing most people have grasping this concept is that it is some kind of 'fixed' standard - would not happen and wouldn't have to happen that way. The comex & forex would do all that 'work'.
Well technically we could create a global currency based solely on the lint collected in my belly-button, but I see your point. I guess my concern remains that if there is a serious divergence between current valuations of both dollars and gold/pm's, the heavy lifting of comex and forex would result in some hair-raising volatility, no? Of course I realize that it's possible to simply reprice, but I'm curious about how that would translate through the economy. Obviously gold/pm's would reprice higher, and the dollar would reprice significantly lower. I just think it would be a bloodbath on one side and speculative frenzy, followed by a bloodbath, on the other.
Well, that would be tough in my opinion. But, It largely depends on where you go and how much comfort you want. As a rule of thumb, prices in Europe are generally exactly the same prices here (except in Euros). So, if (say) you went to San Francisco, and you usually spent (say) 150$ per night for (say) holiday-inn (not too close to anything), you could probably get roughly the same thing in Florance or Sienna. One thing to look-out for is that generally (again) hotels in Italy in the 3 - 5 star range will be just like the hotels in the US. The 1 & 2 star hotels have much less quality (they are generally older and less maintained and old things in Italy are REALLY old). Food will be a wash (except in quality and taste, of course). Gas was1.3E / litre (but, I'd never drive in Italy, esp in the medium to big cities - public transit it very good, and intercity buses and trains are also good - except on the annual september weekend rail-strike holidays - just avoid trains on the weekends in Sept )
We spent, for our last trip (3 weeks ago) for a 2.5 week trip, approximately 4500 EURO, with OUT airfare, and we only went to one tourist area (Cinque Terre) and then only for 3 night (hotel was 210E / night there).
It's also cheaper to travel in May and Sept when the Italians (and the rest of the Europeans do NOT travel).
Of course I realize that it's possible to simply reprice, but I'm curious about how that would translate through the economy...
I think it is happening now - slowly. Like I said - China is gradually adding to their 'supply' if reports are accurate. And as we know - if anyone is concerned with 'pricing' its the Chinese.
And as for volatility - a large & well functioning forex & comex is apt to be less volatile & manipulated than say central bankers or gov't treasury depts. Markets don't have 'agendas'.
That's Italy...what I had in Milan was not. My caveat is that I went solely for the Grand Prix and was there for 5 days. I did manage to get to Lake Como for a day...bought an insanely expensive handbag (the "price" paid to the wife for allowing me to go without her) and a very nice wallet.
M-
I think you might have to bump up that budget.....as nota posted it all depends on what you plan to do. Word of warning...you do not want anything less then 3 stars (hotel-wise) if you are traveling with a family. I stayed in a 2 star near the centrale stazione in Milan and I spent about $130 a night.....I slept and showered there...that was it. Having the family really changes what you are willing to put up with. I woudn't have stayed where I did had the wife been along.
MS
Milano is not much, the urban plan is crap but my friends on the other hand make it worth it,
but Genoa is pretty nice and then there's Cinqur Terre and Portafino... and then swing east to Tuscano,
my only hesitation is all the checks I'll pick up on the way, after a drink or two I tend to be the generous sort...
oh well... should have gone one year ago...
but I'll make that decision in a week or so in Bangkok...
tomorrow I visit the ninja dad's fortified compound in Battambong....
"Federal regulators in the Bush administration blocked attempts by state governments to prevent predatory lending practices that resulted in the financial crisis now stalking the American economy, a new study from the University of North Carolina says."
I thought that the courts (and regulators) held the HOEPA, a federal law passed by Congress, preempted these state predatory lending laws. Does anyone know about this?
And as for volatility - a large & well functioning forex & comex is apt to be less volatile & manipulated than say central bankers or gov't treasury depts. Markets don't have 'agendas'.
No argument there, dryfly. I'm not opposed to a pm solution, but I still haven't internalized how it could be accomplished. Synchronizing the current liquidity of with the USD liquidity is still would be a huge wildcard in my mind. Sure it's slow now, but what happens when the transition becomes self-evident? Burning-theatre metaphor time?
hope I get to ride around in the armored Mercedes and do my best
Tony Montana once I open the armory - 'say hello to my little friend!' bit...
ciao for now... (the old man's away on business otherwise my head will
be fitted for a pike... "may I interest you in an 18 short by chance?"
.....
what would drive people back INTO the dollar right now?
an unwind of the carry trade. there's a lot of leverage selling the dollar short.
Huh? I thought the carry trade was borrowing in Yen and loaning in Dollars. A break down there would seem to result in traders dumping Dollars and to pay off Yen debt...
Interesting times, these. One gets the sense that collapse is near. The problem is that it is difficult to predict exactly which flavor it will come in. Currency collapse? Market crash (w/ strengthening dollar)? Slow bleed ala Japan? The can has been kicked and we're still experiencing the bubble of hope (TM). But I don't believe that TPTB really had a plan, other than postpone and try to maintain plausible deniability.
I'm in the violent movement camp. I don't think we go anywhere slowly. The economic distortions are too large to be resolved gradually.
The real curiosity for me will be public sentiment and political backlash. There will certainly be scapegoats. What will they be? Goldman Sachs? Swine Flu? Some as of yet unannounced international crisis or war? Will the people care?
An increasing amount of information, some truthful, some completely erroneous is disseminated on the internet. It is undermining the monopoly of the mainstream media, and they will naturally work to derail the movement by attacking credibility and increasing the noise to signal ratio until nobody knows what to believe. The blending of truth with conspiracy theory will be the hobgoblin for feeble or gullible minds.
No argument there, dryfly. I'm not opposed to a pm solution, but I still haven't internalized how it could be accomplished. Synchronizing the current liquidity of In glod we trust with the USD liquidity is still would be a huge wildcard in my mind. Sure it's slow now, but what happens when the transition becomes self-evident? Burning-theatre metaphor time?
Again - it isn't a STANDARD so there is no 'burning theatre' time... its a gradual accumulation on the part of CBs in lieu of reserving dollars. If the 'market' gets ahead of itself... they liquidate into it & make a 'buck'. Spec's will have to be as careful as anyone.
Doesn't even require agreements or letters of understanding - just do it. I think the Chinese are - now.
I'm in the violent movement camp. I don't think we go anywhere slowly. The economic distortions are too large to be resolved gradually.
"Everybody's goin' nowhere slowly
They're only fighting for the chance to be last
There's nothin' wrong with goin' nowhere, baby
But we should be goin' nowhere fast
It's so much better goin' nowhere fast"
Chorus to "Nowhere Fast," from "Streets of Fire," one of my favorite schlock movies.
Oh and for all you "footie" fans I did see the Inter-Barca game at the San Siro a few weeks ago. That was insane! They kept all the Barca fans in the stadium until the Inter-Ultra's left......at least they try to mitigate the potential conflicts....not that it did much...several "flare-ups" happened and I would not want to see it if they just let everyone out at the same time.
BTW the FOREX moves need to be taken into context with BB's swap lines. What we are seeing now regarding almost all moves in Forex is the result of the push/pull of that process.
However, as Italy is part of this thread it might be the Italian solution. Italy has had a US style government 50+ years now. It really doesn't matter as long as the peasants aren't starving and have enough entertainment. As somebody said on here a few days ago, the US really is allot like Italy, the only difference - that which hid the comparison - was that the US has (had) economic power.
But, now, hell - maybe the peasants will realize they aren't starving and nothing else really matters. As long as people pretend "good-enough" everything works out.
M-no way if you are including airfare. May be possible if you do it on the cheap not including airfare. Was there last month, rental car was $800/week. Heck, water on the dinner table runs you 4 euro at most places. After you've paid a cover charge to sit down (not everywhere, but common enough). Almost became numb to the prices they were so high. Lodging isn't cheap there regardless of what someone said upthread. I think you would be lucky to find a b&b for anything near 100 euros/night in small towns, bigger towns good luck. We had a great time in spite of the prices. Airfare for us was 500$/person, less than half what we paid to get to Europe the year before.
Watching the markets in between naps after being up all night with a sick child is an interesting experience. Did Captain Elmo hijack the Kermit Express... because it looks like he just lit up the fasten seat belt sign, and we are coming in for a hard landing, ready or not?
Basel
right you are sir... MS had me thinking about Italia and the pignola crumbs got between me and my
keyboard...
thanks...
speaking of Pignola where's that bloody pig?
I start a six-month gig on Monday.
I'm debating over buying a car today or tomorrow as I'm driving back to Seattle.
Jobs seem like they've dried up again.
I was getting 5-6 calls/emails per day but that's down to perhaps 1 in the past 2-3 weeks.
I assume it's end-of-year budget effect and I'll get a pick-up again in Dec / Jan.
Today's price action bears a disturbing resemblance to the flight path of a ballistic missile. Gap open = powered flight off the launcher followed by a nicely parabolic ballistic flight path.
Again - it isn't a STANDARD so there is no 'burning theatre' time... its a gradual accumulation on the part of CBs in lieu of reserving dollars.
I understand it's not an explicit policy. And I recognize that it's a gradual accumulation. My point is that if the goal is to not move the price, the program would end up having to be minor because gold liquidity is low. If the purpose is to acquire gold, it will drive up the price relatively quickly. As soon as investors see this type of CB purchase program, even though it's not explicit or mandatory, it could be enough to spark a bubble in the price of gold as everyone piles in at once.
I'm pretty sure we have the same outlook and I'm just not thinking it through, dryfly; my brain is elsewhere on work today.
NOTaREALmerican,
I always thought the majority of people here were in between the rabble and the elites. We can smell the cake from the kitchen window, and boy does it smell good, but we can see the hungry, hurt, and angry eyes staring up at the castle from below. Somewhere in the back of our heads is a word...tyranny ...that keeps us up at night.
damn you broward...
I had to log in again to name drop (my specialty)...
never met Michael Pare but I did know his ex-wife in
'87... she was on American Gladiators.
told my how Streets of Fire was supposed to catapult him to
stardom, they were set and then it didn't happen... forget the details
maybe they both liked blow too much...
*noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 10/6/2009 - 1:35 pm
Juvenal Delinquent wrote: Heard Mentality
Yeah, I'm one of those too. Always got my ear to the ground. *
I always thought the majority of people here were in between the rabble and the elites
Yeah, perhaps. But, we all know how exponential the income and wealth graphs looks. Most of the peasants I work with are nowhere near EVER going to Italy. This site - probably like many financial site - is pretty "abnormal". Especially in social-class ranking.
Not that that's BAD or anything, some of my best friends are in those social-classes!
OT: Question about "hard currency" funds (e.g. Franklin Templeton Hard Currency Fund ):
.
Any reasons why such a fund would be a bad investment risk for the small retail investor? Looking for a good currency risk play for my USDs.
come on yakety
mattresses are not for money anymore..they're for re-producing and wild nights of spontenous combustion...and they deliver a solid support or backing to the condom industry...
"I always thought the majority of people here were in between the rabble and the elites. We can smell the cake from the kitchen window, and boy does it smell good, but we can see the hungry, hurt, and angry eyes staring up at the castle from below. Somewhere in the back of our heads is a word...tyranny ...that keeps us up at night."
This is the class from which most revolutionary leaders come.
dryfly (profile) wrote on Tue, 10/6/2009 - 1:41 pm
"there simply isn't enough gold to play that role anymore"
Sure there is - just effects 'the price'.
Also - you don't need a set number of ounces per dollar or euro - whatever - it won't be a strict 'standard' like ancient times... gov't treasury depts & central banks will just need enough to go back into comex & forex and 'support'. You don't need that much - just more than they got now.
There you have it, folks; the next big bubble. In order for the world economy to work, people need to be able to buy stuff. Punish the dollar holders too much, and everybody suffers. Might provide momentary schaden freud for the Europeans, Russians, or Chinese, but when they see what it does to their economies, and it will hurt them, they won't be quite so pleased.
For info, I was not going to rent a car. I was hoping to just take trains between locations, and not go to too many places. So a week in rome is possible (with a rental apartment) and a week somewhere else is also possible. I haven't decided how to do Tuscany/Venice, (i.e. do both, do one, which one?)
Parents may be coming also to help with the toddler, alternate nights out, etc. They would pay their way.
Is Italy still family friendly? They used to be crazy about kids and hand out free food etc, but they seem to anti-kids now based on the birth rate.
Is Italy still family friendly? They used to be crazy about kids and hand out free food etc, but they seem to anti-kids now based on the birth rate
Interesting comment. Their birth rate is falling but they aren't anti-kid. Kids are expensive accessories. Many Italians (and Europeans) can't afford them. Plus, the youth are losing their religion and nationalism, so some of the pressure to reproduce is reduced.
Obama, covering phone with hand: "Who? The Dalai Lama? Look, I'm talking to China right now - tell him I'll call him next week some time, or maybe after the first of the year."
Aide: "Sir, other Presidents have found it prudent to at least pretend to be in favor of human rights ...he'll be in town soon, and usually the President schedules an appointment in ..."
Obama, interrupting: "Look, tell him to fuck off, OK? I'm trying to sell goddamn Treasuries, here!"
Nah, he was just another piece 'o pretty boy meat with a following from a TV show and a few low-budget movies that did okay. That sort of career is all about marketing and momentum (AKA luck). Lose the momentum, you'll probably never get it back.
Now Diane Lane -- that's another matter. Oboy is that another matter.
If you can't afford Italy, try Istanbul. Most of the big attractions are about 10 - 20 TL, and a decent meal for 2 is about 40 TL (about 30USD).
Our admittedly basic hotel runs $70/night with cold breakfast of olives, tomatoes, cheese, yoghurt, coffee etc., thrown in.
Ha! And I got to shake my fist at some Soc Gen bankers attending the IMF. A bunch seemed to be staying at the Four Seasons which occupies a block just up from the restaurant district in old town.
Gotcha on the car thing. The rome apt. I linked is good for no car. (We didn't have one... had a 4yo and 6yo with us.) We did a lot of walking with the occasional bus ride in Rome. Kids help up great. The house I linked near Greve, in Tuscany absolutely needs a car. So that's out. Given that you're doing the train thing - stay in Florence proper. Since you're travelling with a kid - apt's are a lot nicer (napping, snacks, etc are easier to manage in an apt rather than a hotel room -for a similar price/night.) We didn't have a car for Rome & Taormina, and picked one up in Florence to get around Tuscany.
There are decent bus lines to get around tuscany if you want to day-trip by bus. (Trains don't go to all the hill towns.)
Punish the dollar holders too much, and everybody suffers. Might provide momentary schaden freud for the Europeans, Russians, or Chinese, but when they see what it does to their economies, and it will hurt them, they won't be quite so pleased.
They should have known better - using the USD as a merchantilist tool to hammer exports home certainly was not a benevolent use of their 'reserves'. I feel no pity for them.
Seriously, the Chinese are tired of hearing about Tibet. They stole it fair and square.
Remember how PO'd everyone got when the Soviets did the same thing to Afghanistan ? Maybe if they'd been a supplier of oil or opium poppies someone would have cared.
~splat
Yes and no. The people loved the kids. Ooohed & ahed. But the infrastructure we expect here in the US wasn't there... No booster seats in restaurants or sippy cups with straws. My 4 year old was so used to plastic cups he literally bit through the glass of the wine glass the water was served in. (No blood, thank goodness. And the waiter was super nice about it.)
We found if we paced our travelling to the kids - stopping when we found a playground... taking gelato breaks... worked well. And despite the language thing - our kids made friends with local kids at every playground.
I wonder if Obama has the decency to feel humiliated. It seems a long time ago that I voted for Obama, and with enthusiasm.
I'm sure he knows; he's the guy who got left holding the bag for an ailing empire, with few options open. If Obama doesn't watch it, he'll wish he had it good enough to be the next Herbert Hoover. He might end up like that guy nobody remembers who was president of Iraq after the Shah and before the ayatollahs; or the guy who headed the Russian gov't after the czars but before the Commies. The reasonable compromise candidate acceptable to all; and thus largely ineffectual on the big issues.
I live in Manhattan and I like this thread...yesterday we had cratering tax receipts for New York State, now we have vacancy rates for CRE in Manhattan skying...and apartmnet rents falling with vacancies there too. Sure glad the recession is over or things could get messy here.
If you want an additional headache....rent a car. Do not buy train tickets in advance...Trenitalia does not take out of country credit cards and they are more expensive if you have a broker do it for you. The one caveat is that you'll have to adjust to doing things on a different time scale...if you can do that you should have no problems. It may seem like a pain in the ass having to push your luggage around stations ( and it is in most cases since elevators and/or escalators are pretty scarce) but it pails in comparison to dealing with parking a car.
One additional thing...if you plan on collecting the VAT upon departure schedule PLENTY of time to do this. You still won't get the money at the airport as you still have to mail it back to them but in Milan's Malpensa airport if you had the items in your packed suitcase you still had to go and check-in....they gave you the bag back and then you had to trapse to the the opposite side of the airport...go through customs...take your bag back to the check in counter....go through security and then get your paperwork stamped just prior to entering in the duty free area that they funnel you into. At each step there was also passport control. Had I done it it would have taken 2-3 hours minimum......I passed. The lines were horrendous....BTW the stuff I bought wasn't so that I could collect the tax back so I didn't care.
These regulations also included less restrictive definitions of "small" and "intermediate small" banks.[15] "Intermediate small banks" were defined as banks with assets of less than $1 billion but more than $250 million, which allowed these banks to opt for examination as either as a small bank or a large bank. (italics mine)
further: In general, the OCC conducts a CRA examination of a national bank every three years. However, the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act mandates an extended examination cycle for smaller banks. CRA examinations for banks with an overall CRA rating of outstanding and aggregate assets of $250 million or less can be started no sooner than 60 months after the most recent CRA examination. Similarly, CRA examinations for banks with an overall CRA rating of satisfactory and aggregate assets of $250 million or less can be started no sooner than 48 months after the most recent CRA examination. Banks may be removed from this extended CRA examination cycle for reasonable cause or in connection with an application for a depository facility.
Jobs seem like they've dried up again.
I was getting 5-6 calls/emails per day but that's down to perhaps 1 in the past 2-3 weeks.
I assume it's end-of-year budget effect and I'll get a pick-up again in Dec / Jan.
This very much mirrors my experience, as it went from a fairly steady regimen of interviews, but no offers from Apr - Jul, but not a peep until today, where I have my first interview in months, with a gaming developer, which has my interest piqued.
I have always refrained from declaring first.
splain this to me, lucy. if the spx and dx are moving counter to each other, won't a tanking dollar send the equities markets to the moon?
CRE market sounds bad. Let's debase the currency!
Special Inspector General Neil Borafsky says Treasury and Fed knew bailed-out banks were not fundamentally sound.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
I think my "luxury" apartment complex is having financial problems. They have some repairs in the parking garage and with one of the trash chutes that isn't getting fixed. They're offering the residents more and more incentives to help find new tenants. But it suddenly feels like things are falling into disrepair. I wonder how the big empty condo building across the street is doing.
I don't know, but I'd wager that refrigerated rack-space hasn't got much cheaper.
I totally read that headline as "Vacancy rate declines and rents increase" and I got all green-shootie for a second there.
Reading comprehension fail.
CR,
How do these results compare to the predictions from Mayor Bloomberg's office (I think that's whose predictions you posted some time ago.)? Sorry, can't search for your old post right now.
BTW you gotta love how the dollar is the new yen and we're exactly back to where we were a few years back (except the real estate bubbles are in Asia now).
We've learned absolutely nothing.
I fear it's going to take a much more serious beating before we actually do.
The squalor of the dollar:
INO Equities Stocks Indexes - U.S $ INDEX (NYBOT:DX) Price Chart and Quote
ac wrote:
And what would the "lesson to be learned" be?
Rocky:
Jesse on Yves' site quotes somebody else quoting Chris Whalen:
“Why is liquidity going into the financial sector? It’s because the real economy is dying [and] everyone is fleeing into the stocks and bonds because they’re liquid at the moment,” Whalen says. “That’s not a good sign.”
Jumping on the Ponzi wagon is the only way to make money in this economy. And that's just the way Goldman Sachs likes it, at least until somebody in the government decides to invalidate the GS get out of jail free card.
CR - do we know what the peak vacancy rates in NYC were in the early 80s & early 90s busts? They were a lot higher weren't they?
My father had senior corporate buddies in NJ & NYC in the early 80s and I recall them joking "they'll never build another building again..."
Also what were the Cap Rates back then - I realize it was a different interest rate environment but are there any lessons to learn form that?
TIA
I've been wondering how that plays out. See my comment above about PM v. USD movement. When the USD gets weaker, do people sell their equities to capture the more useless fiat? Why? Examples of how the relationship plays out would be welcomed.
ac,
Is there such a thing as a non-luxury apartment building near you? I'm living here in Chicago and haven't seen anything that doesn't claim to be luxury.
I've been following some Chicago-related housing blogs and talking to people and I'm seeing some new real-estate terminology being used more and more. When talking about whether a location is desirable or not, the debate centers on whether it is in the Green Zone or not. I laughed at first, but as the local newspapers rediscover that crime sells it becomes more and more apparent that it's completely true.
And what would the "lesson to be learned" be?
Easy credit and inflationary stimulus destroy economies.
the look of abject fear and dread on the faces of the cnbs talking heads more than made up for my weep-worthy shorts
My guess at an answer...
ac wrote:
OH, that lesson? But what lesson would the people that matter learn? Meaning, the smart amoral scum-bags who currently run everything, and are looting the system now might be learning something else.
Better lesson:
The powerful are content with a dying system so long as they get an ever larger share.
A bit OT, but related.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33188139/ns/us_news-security/
The gov will be in the hotel business, along with banks, cars and insurance.
BREAKING
British Airways to cut 1,000 jobs: reports
racial wrote:
Now THAT sounds like a real lesson to be learned. And learned by the people that matter.
Looks like Dow 10,000 (for the third time in a decade) was only delayed a week.
I think the lesson is.. "Looting the economy for over a decade while destroying its long term viability is bad... unless you and your colleagues are the ones doing the looting".
~splat
ac,
Is there such a thing as a non-luxury apartment building near you? I'm living here in Chicago and haven't seen anything that doesn't claim to be luxury.
For this area it's quite nice... I'm not in an area like Chicago and most apartments around here are 2 story wooden boxes. The rent where I am is close to 3x the average for the area. I feel kinda foolish sometimes...
splat wrote:
Which, by definition, is GOOD!
Hello Wall^Street, (Hello, hello.)
How'd things go for you today?
Don't you miss employees.
Since they up and walked away?
And I'll bet you dread to spend another lonely night with me,
But loanly Wall^Street, I'll keep you company.
Hello window of opportunity, (Hello, hello.)
Well, I see that you're still here.
Aren't you lonely,
Since our dilemma disappeared?
Well look here, is that a uptick in the corner of your vein?
Now don't you try to tell me that it's restraint.
Liquidity went away and left us all a loan the way we planned.
Guess we'll have to learn to get along without it if we can.
Hello glass ceiling, (Hello, hello.)
I'm gonna stare at you a while.
You know I can't sleep,
So won't you blog with me a while?
We gotta all stick together or else I'll lose my mind.
I gotta feelin' the market will be gone a long, long time.
(Hello, hello Wall^Street.)
YouTube - Willie Nelson - Hello Walls
Imagine all stocks lie along a spectrum.
One end, containing the most stable, conservative companies, should be labeled "risk assets."
The other end has no label. Call it Russian roulette.
In times of massive economic uncertainty, leverage, doubt and diclocation (like now) stocks on the risk asset end of the spectrum should be fairly stable or decline a bit.
Stocks on the Russian roulette end should go nearly to zero.
Stocks do well when economic conditions are stable and steady growth, taxes are low, governments are solvent, wars aren't happening, and consumers are spending without hocking everything they own.
What's happening now is a combination of marketing (convincing people that stocks are actually a safe bet in troubled times) and speculative leverage. Both are bubbles. All of the people being marketed stocks aren't Mom and Pop.
They include pensions, hedge fund managers, etc. Just not that smart and mostly gullible and narrow-minded.
OH, that lesson? But what lesson would the people that matter learn? Meaning, the smart amoral scum-bags who currently run everything, and are looting the system now might be learning something else.
Unfortunately sometimes they have to learn the hard way from the general population after they've caused enough misery. I don't want to see us get there, but more and more I wonder if it's inevitable.
Who needs a strong dollar when you have stock and commodity gains like these.
Even in Euro terms stocks are up today, and of course the goldbugs will be cheering alongside the bulls. Which could be a telling sign.
All major equity indices are up over 1.5%, gold's at a new all-time high around $1,043, and oil is extending gains past $71. Materials, industrials, and financials are on fire.
While 10-year treasuries are in the red, investors are still only asking for 3.26% from the US government.
If there's a red flag, then this is it. If indeed the dollar is in big trouble, these treasury buyers will be as well. Yet if the treasury market is right, even moderately so, then the dollar scare will be wrong.
In any case, another two days like this and we'll be welcoming Dow 10,000.
ac wrote:
Might be, not enough peasant misery yet tho. They still believe in the mythology of Merica.
Is a one world currency more plausible now?
Who minds the minters and printers?
If US dollar takes a hit and exports do pick up, wouldn't current exporter currencies take a hit and thereby become even more competitive? Is this a death spiral?
dryfly,
I have seen vacancy rate charts for NYC CRE from the mayor's office, and various CRE brokers but they only seem to cover back to the 90s at most. The Federal Reserve has a bunch of good NY data, St. Louis Fed: New York , the most telling of which is employment in financial services. Everything else seems to be holding its own other than information employment
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Why, the politically smart amoral scum-bags, of course. Looking out for OUR interests (or so the dumbasses will always believe - the eternal recurrence of the same).
another two days like this and we'll be welcoming Dow 10,000.
You misspelled "hours".
REbear,
I would guess there is some coupling there, but at some point America hits a wall, regardless of currency relative value changes/manipulation, that we realize, not matter how much we shift currency value, we do not produce enough of value to justify the value of goods we import. We are a country that sucks the world dry and therefore unsustainable. We need a shift in our economy to be more productive and provide more things and service of value to the rest of the world.
rich wrote:
What I was thinking is: You have a USD at a starting point valued at 0. You buy two stocks with 100 USD: 40 USD/shr (Stock A) and 60 USD/shr (Stock B). The relative value of the USD goes down to -0.10. Now, I'm thinking that the values of Stock A & B don't change until someone buys/sells shares in them. If A is impacted by a strengthening USD and B is impacted by a weakening USD, you would imagine people would buy A and sell B with the stated dynamic in place. Is that how it would all play out sans a short-term ForEx shock?
If the dollar were to get whacked, exporting our foodstuffs looks like a lot more attractive proposition, except for those of us that like to eat...
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
And dairy farmers won't have to pour out their milk because it is worthless! Oh wait a minute...
Could someone list the advantages/disadvantages of a weak dollar? TIA.
We will forage in the neighborhoods, we will forage on the interstates, we will forage around the malls, we will forage around forests, we will never go hungry.
Sure L.L
U.S. Dollar fell 35 Percent Over 18 Years from 1984 to 2002 - The U.S. Dollar then Dropped Over 40 Percent from 2002 to 2007: How the Dollar is Being Systematically Devalued since the 1980s. 5 Reason why a Weak Dollar is bad for America.
vacationing in Europe gets more expensive (except for Iceland)
No-
I am saving to take my family to Italy in the spring, but if the Euro is above 1.5 then I may not go. However its a once/twice in a lifetime thing so I may still go.
advantages: Anything exportable pendulum of profit swings in the opposite direction of where the dollar is going, tourism by foreigners traditionally picks up-because prices are so reasonable, as long as we remain stable as a country. Great opportunity to sell the amazing aspects about our country, most of which happen to be natural, untouched parts.
disadvantages: Anything imported goes up in price by as much as the dollar goes down, and if the dollar really starts a slide, you'll see much less variety of goods offered on the shelves.
Go now or be priced out forever-
Sweet Karl and Mish going at it.....good reading coming here I can see it.
The Market Ticker
shill wrote:
This is obviously negative propaganda from people who hate Merica. You can tell based on this sentence: "any average Americans in dual income families are wondering why they are earning the same and working twice as hard."
All REAL Mericans know there are no AVERAGE Mericans, we're ALL above average. The above average people - which is the MAJORITY of people - are doing just fine.
One of the travel magazines my wife gets (we also have that anonymous benefactor that pays for our subscriptions) had a detailed section a couple months ago that demonstrated that vacationing in Europe has actually become cheaper despite the dollar weakening. Hotels and restaurants especially have cut prices to keep the Americans coming. Or at least try to keep Americans coming.
Might be, not enough peasant misery yet tho. They still believe in the mythology of Merica.
Looking at the younger generations in my family I realize they'll be happy so long as they have access to Facebook and/or World of Warcraft plus two roast beef sandwiches a day.
It makes me wonder if the average human being is becoming insignificant with respect to the future.
Mainstream economists think a falling dollar will increase US exports This is true in normal times, but we are not living in normal times. We are seeing the unraveling of the most complicated financial system devised by man. The exporting countries will not allow unlimited US dollar depreciation, nor will they simply buy US assets with fallin US dollars. They will slap on import restrictions, and will allow the $ to fall. Hello 1930s trade wars.
Yet if the price of imports goes up, it will be more economical to produce things here, and more people will have jobs, and we'll see our dollars coming back to the US of A to build factories to make it viable for foreign countries to compete here, etc.......
How does that add up as a disadvantage?
ac wrote:
There's no average humans in Merica. We're all above average. Just the losers are average. Who cares about THEM.
Newsflash!
Benjamins has been dropped to DDD rating
All REAL Mericans know there are no AVERAGE Mericans, we're ALL above average. The above average people - which is the MAJORITY of people - are doing just fine.
Damn straight!
And I got the trophy to prove it!
Asian-rates-of-pay ain't gonna make anybody's day.
20 million un-employed...ya that's a lot of losers, I am sure a few of them would like to speak with you in person.
Cinco-X wrote:
As long as REAL Mericans can stand WORKING in FACTORIES (gosh, isn't THAT just for LOSERS) and still support the bling they are used too. But, they'll be competing with their Chinese and India peasant counterparts so I'd suspect wages might he slightly depressed.
On closer inspection, my green today is all attributable to a drop in PPD, which got a subpoena from the SEC. Could be another home run for Reggie Middleton.
shill wrote:
GET A JOB YOU HIPPY. LOVE IT OR LEAVE IT, AND GET A HAIR CUT YOU LOSERS!!!
.....I think that will happen involuntarily when the dollar is devalued to such an extent, buying a $29. toaster oven from China will cost twice as much - afterwhich profitable for Americans to manufacture again.
....well, all of us can stand to go on a diet. And BSR is giving a gardening class "Growing Your Own Food For Dummies"
GET A JOB YOU HIPPY. LOVE IT OR LEAVE IT, AND GET A HAIR CUT YOU LOSERS!!!
Job? why Obami said I did not have to work for a living,
NOTaREALmerican... we have your cornered. Put the CAP-gun down nice and easy, no funny business.
In the '30s were were net exporters; not today. Trade restrictions hurt us in the '30s, but perhaps not so much today.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Also live your pistol in its holster. We have no need for any bold antics.
weak dollars are great for the tiny part of society that exports.
It would hurt the Chinese export machine too much. A realistically valued renminbi (!!!) now that would hurt.
~splat
For those of you who are thinking the US economy will be saved by rising exports due to a falling $US, forget about it.
Go spend some time on a warm beach until that feeling goes away.
it's karma, we're central america circa 1950
What warm beach?
Michigan Sea Grant Coastwatch
"In the '30s were were net exporters; not today. Trade restrictions hurt us in the '30s, but perhaps not so much today. "
I agree, except for imported oil. What's the domestic substitute for that?
yuan comex contract/etf
why does this not exist? millions is traded in xfi, why no currency etf?
Cinco-X wrote:
Ignoring the final trade balance, you'd be surprised how much back-and-forth goes on across the border. Don't kid yourself, a trade war right now would destroy the economy in a heartbeat. Not that I personally think it can really be avoided...it's already begun, just not well advertised.
I think most mainstream economists realize that there is no economy strong enough to absorb the collective output of the US manufacturing sector, no matter what state it happens to be in right now. If the good ol' USA became the recipient of a 20% built-in competitive advantage for exports (due to a devalued USD), they would destroy the productive capacity of any economy with a higher exchange rate by flooding them with cheap goods, thereby destroying the manufacturing sector. WTO would become a swear word, and it wouldn't take too long before tariff walls were erected everywhere.
coal
yep. see Chicago Dude's anecdote above on demand destruction of European tourism outpacing devaluation.
feralpig wrote:
Bicycle generators with lots of peasant peddling?
Unfortunately.. as we don't make any of the component parts here and have to import about 99.9% of component BOMs. It doesn't really help all that much. One anecdote, a gold plated connector I have to use, made by a company in Germany. My raw cost of these went from $0.80 to $1.50 over around 2 years, now that kinda sucks as cost for 1000 leaps from $800.00 to $1500.00, I just have to eat it
There is naturally no US supplier who makes a part anything like it, so I'd like to see how I could locally source that part if no one makes it. The same is true of literally thousands of parts.
~splat
Conservation and the Picken's plan. Hey! I'm a conservative; it's time to conserve
If you want a cheaper European vacation, might I suggest Turkey? I just spent 9 days there and loved it. Only thing is you just need to be vigilant with your money and not get suckered into paying tourist prices for everything. Just do your research.
noob goldberg wrote:
Assuming we weren't exporting anything made out oil.
We can compete with China and India if we invest capital to making our workers much more efficient through the use of eletronics, automation, etc. However why invest when you get taxed twice on returns, once the company gets taxed, then you get taxed on your capital gains. So its a 60% ish haircut for taxes on money you invested to make the USA more productive!
Didn't europe changes this so now europe is more favorable to capital investments (factories)?
I'm OK with taxing gains, but do it only one time (company or individual)
ocean beach is warm today....
Blue angels coming to town this weekend for fleet week...presidential cup in town....gotta love america....
Cite?
shill-
Mish is usually a bit naive (gov't is not printing money to name but one example) however he has it right IMO. Denninger doesn't really cover what the actual use of FRB is. His argument is totally based on what it should be doing and not what it's used for. I don't disagree with his thesis however the use of FRB is not what he presents it as.
It's alot like the using the TARP money for credit creation......and we know how well that one worked out...
Ciao
MS
"coal "
I assume that was a response to my question about domestic substitutes for oil.
Can't burn coal under cap & trade.
I wish we would build nuclear plants, but I don't see that happening politically.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
It would all fall apart fairly quickly, I have no doubt. But there is not a 1:1 oil-cost to final-good-cost relationship. If oil doubles, the proportion of oil within a final good may cause the cost of that final good to rise, but as long as it's less than the equivalent change in the exchange rate there would still be a profit opportunity there.
more change -
Obama postpones meeting with Dalai Lama
The Dalai Lama has met with the past three sitting U.S. presidents during his visits to Washington.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Noob,
Don't worry; we'd need to keep NAFTA, since tariffs against Mexico would just encourage Mexicans to swim the Rio Grande, and since a lot of stuff we need comes from Canada. We don't really need so much to become a net exporter as we need to buy locally, within the NAFTZ and perhaps from SA. Getting to a zero balance of trade would help our economy a lot, though I'd worry about IC production and packaging.
"Can't burn coal under cap & trade. I wish we would build nuclear plants, but I don't see that happening politically. "
Before too much longer, we're going to have to get real about domestic energy sources.
I also favor nuclear, but the lead time is too long to solve the near term problems.
So cap& trade is going to have to be sidelined, and domestic oil drilling is going to have to be allowed again.
Washington is still blocking offshore drilling. They may have to let go of that position.
Study: Bush administration blocked efforts to prevent housing crisis | Raw Story
Federal regulators in the Bush administration blocked attempts by state governments to prevent predatory lending practices that resulted in the financial crisis now stalking the American economy, a new study from the University of North Carolina says.
In 2004, the Office of the Currency Comptroller, an obscure regulatory agency tasked with ensuring the fiscal soundness of America's banks, invoked an 1863 law to give itself the power to override state laws against predatory lending. The OCC told states they could not enforce predatory-lending laws, and all banks would be subject only to less-strict federal laws.
Now, a research paper (PDF) from UNC-Chapel Hill's Center for Community Capital shows that those anti-predatory lending laws had actually worked. States that had stricter regulations on issuing mortgages were found to have fewer foreclosures.
"We believe that these findings are remarkable, since they suggest an important and yet unexplored link between [anti-predatory lending laws] and foreclosures," the study's authors state.
feralpig wrote:
As the dollar drops and import prices go up, politics will change. The exports that result from a long term dollar drop will ONLY take place after the realization that the drop in the dollar IS TRULY long term and AFTER the investments are made (by godless ferners, no less) and AFTER the factories are online (and AFTER the ferners drop their own import restrictions too). The time in between is what will be interesting.
"Obama postpones meeting with Dalai Lama"
New conditions from our creditors.
m-
Skip Milan other than the Duomo and if you are religiously inclined..the last supper...you won't miss anything. If you go there you can do it in one day easy. With regards to rates of exchange...it didn't matter in Milan everything was 2-3 x the price...I had lunch in the Galleria (I didn't really think I was splurging until I got the check.)...70 euro....for lunch.
Ciao
MS
The Morganna Dollar
"They have some repairs in the parking garage and with one of the trash chutes that isn't getting fixed. "
Are condos traps? It might feel that way.
Cinco-X wrote:
Since Mexico is North America's pool of cheap labour, and Canada is North America's pool of cheap resources, and the USA is North America's pool of productive capacity, I'm sure we'll end up trying to work something out. I don't have high hopes for a successful outcome (too much political baggage), but I imagine we'll try.
That's right. You don't want to piss off the landlord.
that's a lie, ocean beach is never warm, the waves are a wall, and it kills people frequently. oh, it is also possibly the worst spot for great whites on the .00001% chance you find one.
worst beach between san ysidro and bellingham, easy.
".70 euro....for lunch."
A year or so back I heard about four coffees in Paris for 40US.
I've noticed when companies get in trouble, they
let the little things decay. It usually doesn't work.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
We produce so damned much food - it wouldn't make a dent in what we eat. Cost more but that would be a currency thing not a supply/demand thing.
"it's karma, we're central america circa 1950 "
Pretty much sums this all up. Except no street goons yet to beat the sh*t out of everybody looking or walking like a damn commie
Remember to teach your kids not to walk like a commie! 
Internal politics is already banana republic quality, business side also, public education getting there, healthcare even below that and then the necessary excessive militarism is already there. A little bit more and Americans could be proud owners of world's most northern BANANA REPUBLIC!
Something to aim for!
REBear wrote:
Obama postpones meeting with Dalai Lama
The Dalai Lama has met with the past three sitting U.S. presidents during his visits to Washington.
The DL is a great guy, but he's a political player and would not deny it. Kind of makes Obama look like a stiff (well, like more of one), but he's loathe is piss off China right now because of all that nice debt they continue to hold and to (somewhat) buy. Sadder than brushing off the DL is that, in the end, it has come to this.
Obama not seeing the Lama is just him being told by China that they disapprove.
Congress will meet with him but not the prez....
"long hitter....the lama"
Ciao
MS
sm_landlord wrote:
My eyebrow raised when I read this, but after reflection I just don't know if I buy it. I know China can be vindictive, but would they really threaten the value of their entire national monetary reserve base simply to spite a feeble old man for political reasons? It seems a little extraordinary.
"The Dalai Lama has met with the past three sitting U.S. presidents during his visits to Washington."
Oh well, it's all an illusion anyway, isn't it?
Regarding Italy.
I just got back (a few weeks ago now). If it's your first trip you are almost guaranteed to spend HUGE amounts of money because you will be going to the places that all first-time tourist go. Be prepared to spend allot.
I've been going for years so I don't care about the Italian tourist stuff anymore (you can only look at so many 1000+ yo churches). I only go for the food and wine now. There's lots of small cities and towns that still have good values.
"cap & trade."
seriously, don't make me laugh this early in the day - cap and trade is yet another billion-plus subsidy to GS. no one will care in the slightest about green crapola when U6 hits 40%.
YouTube - Carl Spackler on the Dali Lama
Cia0
MS
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
If the dollar were to get whacked, exporting our foodstuffs looks like a lot more attractive proposition, except for those of us that like to eat...
We produce so damned much food - it wouldn't make a dent in what we eat. Cost more but that would be a currency thing not a supply/demand thing. *
40% of what we produce, is discarded. So we have some cushion(
) in that area!
What? That's it's come down to the f***ing money?
BWAHAHAHA!
Hey h hack...easy now...I said it was warm.. I live next to it.. Here's a great white breaching right in front of the bel air beach club, which has water that even hepatitis runs away from...
Pacific Coast Shark News
great whites dont bother me...Pigmen do....
HollywoodHack wrote:
Or faces export competition. Or for that matter buys imports - considering the deficits. If bought via reciprocal trade then different matter - we don't do that.
Not such a 'tiny' group after all.
HollywoodHack wrote:
The funny thing is that if U6 gets even close to 40% and cap and trade dies, total emissions will be at their lowest level in many many years.
Tarzan wrote:
LOVE IT OR LEAVE IT YOU PINKO COMMIE HIPPY. been there, done that one.
From Tech Ticker:
Dropping Rents Will Drag House Prices Down with Them
Featuring one of CR's charts!
it's a gorgeous spot, it just isn't a beach in the normal sense of the word. the zoo there is also kind of a disgrace.
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Doesn't matter if we are - it goes up and down same as for foreign competition - it gets arbitraged.
Where it hurts is in DOMESTIC consumption... or made into other products used in domestic consumption.
Otherwise its the 'domestic value added' that is effected - not the internationally priced commodities.
Ten-year yields stay up at 3.26% after auction
Indirect bidders buy 49% of 3-year note auction
Bidders offer $2.76 for every $1 of 3-yr debt sold
The "green" dining halls at the uni I work at realized the kiddies were tossing a lot of food. They would load up their trays with various dishes -- because it was easy and didn't cost anymore -- and leave a lot of it untouched.
I don't know where food services got the idea, but they took away the trays. And the kiddies stopped taking food they weren't going to eat, because it was not easy to balance four plates on their arms. They would actually have to get up and return to the line if they needed more food. Food "consumption" went down substantially.
I think there's a certain amount of "taking away the trays" we can do painlessly to curb food waste/consumption in this country.
"Here's a great white breaching right in front of the bel air beach club, which has water that even hepatitis runs away from..."
I see a lot of surfers in the water there. They had better start wearing signs that say "I am not a seal", translated into shark.
It will be a huge new speculative market in which the entrenched players will be able to make mega-$ at the expense of anyone stupid enough to try and manufacture something in this country. It will just result in carbon-outsourcing to China where environmentalists end up having a nice rest at a state funded re-education facility. This assumes you believe the semi-religious fervor over AGW.
~splat
notarealamerican-
Spent my money on food and wine too. I didn't need to see more paintings or more churches...I went to the Louvre-10 or so years ago and it was like the Neal Armstrong moment....how do you top that? I did go into the Duomo....but the rest of the stuff was not for me. The only thing that gave me away as an american (or canadian) was that I had shorts on.....it was hot....latin machismo may be ingrained in the culture however I'm not going to sweat my balls off so I can appear to look "macho"...and it didn't matter that I spoke Italian......I was still the outsider....just like in Japan. But this is the mentality in any big city...
Ciao
MS
From The Demise of the Dollar by Robert Fisk (See Mish link in todays post "Ridiculous Hype over Secret Oil Meetings")
"The transitional currency in the move away from dollars, according to Chinese banking sources, may well be gold."
Ignoring the elephant in the room is getting more difficult.
Hey MP I finally had a block of time to listen and watch the Janet Tavakoli interview you linked to. I wanted to say thank you and that I found it useful AND enjoyable. I liked how they lightly touched on the ways politics, economy, freedom and enforcement intertwine. I truly wish there had been time in the interview to talk more about the 70's and her life and impressions of Iran, but that is just personal wish. The next time I am talking to someone about this topic and trying to explain not only why I am so hot and bothered over it but also why the person I am speaking to should be too I can offer this link. If they will invest the time....
Thank you again.
h hack...I've surfed the whole coast...their are many worse places to surf..btw, I actually was barreled at OB..now anyone surfing San Ysidiro is plain old stupid....Morro bay, Stinson and Salmon creek are more sharky but last fatal attack was in San diego..
definitely more land sharks in the US than great whites in the water
MS wrote:
Where is Home Gnome? Didn't he go to Italy in September too?
We don' need no steenking cheap labor! We got lots of it unemployed now......much of it with degrees! Cheap resources? Heck - we just trade it for superior medical & dental work.
"I think there's a certain amount of "taking away the trays" we can do painlessly to curb food waste/consumption in this country."
Smaller portions?
We ate out the other night with relatives from out of town - otherwise we seldom eat out. I ate about one third of my angus beef hamburger, maybe one fourth of the steak fries, half a salad.
Admittedly I'm old and skinny, but why are people eating so much?
"Where is Home Gnome? Didn't he go to Italy in September too?"
Yes, and he had better be writing up his trip report to the commentariat.
of course, the bay area is great place to surf. mavericks is the most macho spot in the lower 48. yes, many more land sharks on sand hill road and california st than the water kind.
AC says,
"I fear it's going to take a much more serious beating "
California will require an extended beating. I'm not placing any odds on receivership. However, I think everyone in state government should be made to worry about it.
There have been an assortment of state takeovers of cities, counties, and school districts. Usually the target of the takeover screams about how it isn't their fault. Oddly, almost all of them are somehow cured over a period of years.
Springfield MA is an example. Springfield, Massachusetts - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A recent takeover in CA was a school district, State Takeover of King City Jt. UHSD - Year 2009 (CA Dept of Education) "California established a process in 1991 to help school districts that become financially insolvent (Assembly Bill 1200, Chapter 1213, Statutes of 1991). If the state provides a loan to a school district, the State Superintendent takes over its governance and may appoint an administrator and other staff to get the school district back on sound financial footing. California has taken over seven school districts since this process was established: Richmond/West Contra Costa, Coachella Valley Unified, Compton Unified, Emery Unified, West Fresno Elementary, Oakland Unified, and Vallejo City Unified. Governance has been returned to two districts: Richmond/West Contra Costa and Compton Unified. The remaining districts continue under some state oversight until their state loans are repaid."
according to Chinese banking sources, may well be gold
Yeah, right..... like they would ever peg to gold.
the zoo there is also kind of a disgrace.
Tigers are smart there though...they eat stupid cocaine induced punks...they dont take shit
San Francisco Zoo to Reopen January 3 Following Tiger Attack - Local News | News Articles | National News | US News - FOXNews.com
Glad you enjoyed it and found it informative. Tavakoli has a fairly sophisticated view of things.
It's one big board game. Money equals power. Power equals money.
My deep thought for the day.
Great story.
A 20% increase in corn, sugar and soybean prices may go a long way to stop the obesity related diseases.
Anon2 wrote:
Well then heaven help us all, because there simply isn't enough gold to play that role anymore.
Anon2 wrote:
PMs - especially gold - are the only other possible international reserve currency. With the comex & forex as the enforcers. Don't even need silly 'gold standards' or artificial BW-like accords -- those markets coupled via arbitrage will enforce discipline far better than any gov't treasury or central bank ever could. Bankers tread on them at their peril.
"Well then heaven help us all, because there simply isn't enough gold to play that role anymore."
Fisk has his own point of view.
NOTaREALamerican,
I want to go to italy for two weeks. 3 people, one is toddler. Budget is $5,000. Do-able?
M wrote:
Including airfare?
dryfly wrote:
Commodity markets as the new bond vigilantes...
i'm seeking the contrarian view, here... what would drive people back INTO the dollar right now?
Eric wrote:
No they never would 'peg'. But they might use gold to buffer yuan valuations & help them peg to other currencies -- use it like a traditional 'reserve' now that dollar has failed in that role. I've been expecting that since the 90s... first w/ Japan... then OPEC... now the Chinese. Finally might be happening.
"what would drive people back INTO the dollar right now?"
All I can thin of would be another panic like last year. Or maybe another war?
pavel.chichikov wrote:
If we created an oil-based currency, and then used it to purchase oil, would the universe implode? Is that like dividing by zero?
"there simply isn't enough gold to play that role anymore"
Not at $1,000/oz, but at $8,000/oz it is possible. This is not a prediction.
Heard Mentality
Splat says,
"There is naturally no US supplier who makes a part anything like it, so I'd like to see how I could locally source that part if no one makes it. The same is true of literally thousands of parts."
Let me give my own little contribution to "build American". If a number of people ask, there are a lot of foreign based firms who will seriously consider opening US plants. Japanese automakers are just one example. There are tons of others.
I have an American made Honda. I put American made Michelin tires on it.
To messy, and the smell is unbearable.
RockyR wrote:
Some sort of controversy showing that the paper gold/assets people thought they owned didn't actually exist? Maybe some sort of gold scandal at JPM or something?
Exactly. They could even discipline the bond pimps too [looking at you BG]...
landlord, war was the first answer that popped into my mind when I asked myself that question... war seems more likely than panic right now, no? what might be the impetus for a new 2008-style panic?
Pavel that was very funny. I stopped after reading it the first time and read it once more then I got it.
Aussie & NZ have oil-based currencies, along with a few other countries.
JD,
something has to spook the heard. i'm trying to qualify the risk of going against the dollar at current levels.
Continuing declines in broad measures of money supply?
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Yeah, I'm one of those too. Always got my ear to the ground.
Hey CreditCriminal and H-Hack -
I saw some small sharks at La Jolla Shores last week. Little leapard sharks - but my 6 year old who I was snorkling with thought they were really cool. Also saw some rays - they scare me more. Ouchie.
Not quite the great whites you guys were talking about.
noob goldberg wrote:
Not a good candidate at all - it gets consumed, is difficult to store & subject to 'supply & demand'. More likely it too gets priced in the 'new reserve currency' - troy ozs/barrel... or some such.
Instead of the physics researcher discovering that time is really money, he is now confronted with the realization that energy is really money.
Federal regulators in the Bush administration blocked attempts by state governments to prevent predatory lending practices that resulted in the financial crisis now stalking the American economy, a new study from the University of North Carolina says.
But I thought regulators were the solution to the problem, not the cause!
now, that's interesting. like a sudden realization that GLD doesn't really translate into bullion? ...even though it's pretty clear to anyone buying the paper that that is the case?
"what might be the impetus for a new 2008-style panic? "
Something going horribly wrong in China or Europe, Germany in particular.
Yes, I figured air-fare would be ~$2,000. Toddlers are sometimes 1/2 a normal ticket.
One of your charts, CR, is here.
That is in a story about declining housing rents, price/rent ratio.
I have been away for awhile. I would note that I am NOT a lizard. Note the spelling of my handle.
sm_landlord wrote:
Another panic is surely baked in at this point. Maybe within the next 6 months. Only this time, it will be worse.
ucgal wrote:
Yeah I saw one the other day while I was diving. Got a picture with it and everything:
http://rookery2.viary.com/storagev12/846000/846463_390f_1024x2000.jpg
what would drive people back INTO the dollar right now?
an unwind of the carry trade. there's a lot of leverage selling the dollar short.
"My eyebrow raised when I read this, but after reflection I just don't know if I buy it. I know China can be vindictive, but would they really threaten the value of their entire national monetary reserve base simply to spite a feeble old man for political reasons? It seems a little extraordinary."
There are very few hot button won't give an inch issues with China. Tibet and Taiwan are two of them.
I always thought the black swan event would come from some innocuous comment on either side(China or US) or perceived insult or loss of face comment.
Sure there is - just effects 'the price'.
Also - you don't need a set number of ounces per dollar or euro - whatever - it won't be a strict 'standard' like ancient times... gov't treasury depts & central banks will just need enough to go back into comex & forex and 'support'. You don't need that much - just more than they got now.
The failing most people have grasping this concept is that it is some kind of 'fixed' standard - would not happen and wouldn't have to happen that way. The comex & forex would do all that 'work'.
I think its happening now whether they agree to it or not. China buying gold is telling me this.
it seems to me that these guys are doing the same thing we are... in spades. ROW is fully aware of the gig and they are going along with it. that appears to be pretty low risk.
so, maybe the thesis is: stay short the dollar and watch Iran and Pakistan very closely.
"We ate out the other night with relatives from out of town - otherwise we seldom eat out. I ate about one third of my angus beef hamburger, maybe one fourth of the steak fries, half a salad.
Admittedly I'm old and skinny, but why are people eating so much? "
People perceive big portions as good value.
MS
thanks for the news on Milan, I had planned to go through Europe on my way back to NYC...
know Milano quite well but given that I have friends to see perhaps I should find another route back and
not touch down there....
And the trick is to eat only half of what you order and make another meal out of it the next day.
srs
?
Noob, lol
The food is priced so that a small portion costs the same as a large portion, or small portions simply aren't available. Resulting in the perception of a big portion as a good value. For a restaurant, the marginal profit for each additional ounce of portion size is large.
food,
average plate in 50's was 9" diameter...avg. now is 11"
IMF Gold Sales -- Frequently Asked Questions
~ todays run-up smacks of speculative activity.
Mrs. Gnome and I made it back from Italy.
You can check out some of our trip at my homepage.
Declining prices and rents in RRE and CRE. High unemployment, high saving rate. Massive debt, personal, household, and national. Industrial overcapacity and slack resource utilization. No consumer-led recovery. Very little lending despite artificially low interest rates. Low household and business formation. And no end in sight for years and years. IMO, this is Japan, not Zimbabwe. A truly lost decade, or maybe more.
duke-
It's all about one's perspective....I just saw Milan as a big city that happened to be located in Italy. If I never go back there I wouldn't be disappointed. I'm sure it would be different if I had some friends there.....the one place I would go back to is this place:
TERMEMILANO. Centro benessere termale. Terme e benessere
Hands down one of the best spas in the world. Even better then most Onsen in Japan. pricey though.
Ciao
MS
"what might be the impetus for a new 2008-style panic? "
Sovereign default. Top CDS outstanding: Italy, Turkey, Brazil, Russia.
The biggest private sector CDS positions include: JPM, Wells, Bank of America.
dryfly wrote:
Well technically we could create a global currency based solely on the lint collected in my belly-button, but I see your point. I guess my concern remains that if there is a serious divergence between current valuations of both dollars and gold/pm's, the heavy lifting of comex and forex would result in some hair-raising volatility, no? Of course I realize that it's possible to simply reprice, but I'm curious about how that would translate through the economy. Obviously gold/pm's would reprice higher, and the dollar would reprice significantly lower. I just think it would be a bloodbath on one side and speculative frenzy, followed by a bloodbath, on the other.
some investor guy wrote:
There are a few municipal/regional government defaults that could have the same effect.
creditcriminalslovetarp wrote:
waist sizes increased correspondingly...
Well, that would be tough in my opinion. But, It largely depends on where you go and how much comfort you want. As a rule of thumb, prices in Europe are generally exactly the same prices here (except in Euros). So, if (say) you went to San Francisco, and you usually spent (say) 150$ per night for (say) holiday-inn (not too close to anything), you could probably get roughly the same thing in Florance or Sienna. One thing to look-out for is that generally (again) hotels in Italy in the 3 - 5 star range will be just like the hotels in the US. The 1 & 2 star hotels have much less quality (they are generally older and less maintained and old things in Italy are REALLY old). Food will be a wash (except in quality and taste, of course). Gas was1.3E / litre (but, I'd never drive in Italy, esp in the medium to big cities - public transit it very good, and intercity buses and trains are also good - except on the annual september weekend rail-strike holidays - just avoid trains on the weekends in Sept )
We spent, for our last trip (3 weeks ago) for a 2.5 week trip, approximately 4500 EURO, with OUT airfare, and we only went to one tourist area (Cinque Terre) and then only for 3 night (hotel was 210E / night there).
It's also cheaper to travel in May and Sept when the Italians (and the rest of the Europeans do NOT travel).
HomeGnome,
Good Time?
Go to Rome or Venice or Tuscany? I need hotel recommendations <$200 a night. Preferrably <$150 a night.
RockyR wrote:
Sure, in worth-less dollars... In Yen or Euro, SPX may not be worth so much.
Mrs. Gnome and I rented a farmhouse in Northern Umbria.
Food and Wine was very reasonable, IMO.
and I drove all over Northern Umbria and Southern Tuscany!
We flew into Rome and then drove about 1 1/2 hours north east.
M wrote:
Cinque Terre - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia touristy but REALLY worth it. One of the few tourist places I really like.
Pienza Tuscany without the tourists.
noob goldberg wrote:
I think it is happening now - slowly. Like I said - China is gradually adding to their 'supply' if reports are accurate. And as we know - if anyone is concerned with 'pricing' its the Chinese.
And as for volatility - a large & well functioning forex & comex is apt to be less volatile & manipulated than say central bankers or gov't treasury depts. Markets don't have 'agendas'.
Gnome-
That's Italy...what I had in Milan was not. My caveat is that I went solely for the Grand Prix and was there for 5 days. I did manage to get to Lake Como for a day...bought an insanely expensive handbag (the "price" paid to the wife for allowing me to go without her) and a very nice wallet.
M-
I think you might have to bump up that budget.....as nota posted it all depends on what you plan to do. Word of warning...you do not want anything less then 3 stars (hotel-wise) if you are traveling with a family. I stayed in a 2 star near the centrale stazione in Milan and I spent about $130 a night.....I slept and showered there...that was it. Having the family really changes what you are willing to put up with. I woudn't have stayed where I did had the wife been along.
Ciao
MS
MS
Milano is not much, the urban plan is crap but my friends on the other hand make it worth it,
but Genoa is pretty nice and then there's Cinqur Terre and Portafino... and then swing east to Tuscano,
my only hesitation is all the checks I'll pick up on the way, after a drink or two I tend to be the generous sort...
oh well... should have gone one year ago...
but I'll make that decision in a week or so in Bangkok...
tomorrow I visit the ninja dad's fortified compound in Battambong....
"Federal regulators in the Bush administration blocked attempts by state governments to prevent predatory lending practices that resulted in the financial crisis now stalking the American economy, a new study from the University of North Carolina says."
I thought that the courts (and regulators) held the HOEPA, a federal law passed by Congress, preempted these state predatory lending laws. Does anyone know about this?
dryfly wrote:
No argument there, dryfly. I'm not opposed to a pm solution, but I still haven't internalized how it could be accomplished. Synchronizing the current liquidity of
with the USD liquidity is still would be a huge wildcard in my mind. Sure it's slow now, but what happens when the transition becomes self-evident? Burning-theatre metaphor time?
hope I get to ride around in the armored Mercedes and do my best
Tony Montana once I open the armory - 'say hello to my little friend!' bit...
ciao for now... (the old man's away on business otherwise my head will
be fitted for a pike... "may I interest you in an 18 short by chance?"
.....
Basel Too wrote:
Huh? I thought the carry trade was borrowing in Yen and loaning in Dollars. A break down there would seem to result in traders dumping Dollars and to pay off Yen debt...
Interesting times, these. One gets the sense that collapse is near. The problem is that it is difficult to predict exactly which flavor it will come in. Currency collapse? Market crash (w/ strengthening dollar)? Slow bleed ala Japan? The can has been kicked and we're still experiencing the bubble of hope (TM). But I don't believe that TPTB really had a plan, other than postpone and try to maintain plausible deniability.
I'm in the violent movement camp. I don't think we go anywhere slowly. The economic distortions are too large to be resolved gradually.
The real curiosity for me will be public sentiment and political backlash. There will certainly be scapegoats. What will they be? Goldman Sachs? Swine Flu? Some as of yet unannounced international crisis or war? Will the people care?
An increasing amount of information, some truthful, some completely erroneous is disseminated on the internet. It is undermining the monopoly of the mainstream media, and they will naturally work to derail the movement by attacking credibility and increasing the noise to signal ratio until nobody knows what to believe. The blending of truth with conspiracy theory will be the hobgoblin for feeble or gullible minds.
Again - it isn't a STANDARD so there is no 'burning theatre' time... its a gradual accumulation on the part of CBs in lieu of reserving dollars. If the 'market' gets ahead of itself... they liquidate into it & make a 'buck'. Spec's will have to be as careful as anyone.
Doesn't even require agreements or letters of understanding - just do it. I think the Chinese are - now.
the current carry trade involves USD.
Gavshire Hathaway wrote:
"Everybody's goin' nowhere slowly
They're only fighting for the chance to be last
There's nothin' wrong with goin' nowhere, baby
But we should be goin' nowhere fast
It's so much better goin' nowhere fast"
Chorus to "Nowhere Fast," from "Streets of Fire," one of my favorite schlock movies.
CYB
Oh and for all you "footie" fans I did see the Inter-Barca game at the San Siro a few weeks ago. That was insane! They kept all the Barca fans in the stadium until the Inter-Ultra's left......at least they try to mitigate the potential conflicts....not that it did much...several "flare-ups" happened and I would not want to see it if they just let everyone out at the same time.
BTW the FOREX moves need to be taken into context with BB's swap lines. What we are seeing now regarding almost all moves in Forex is the result of the push/pull of that process.
Ciao
MS
Basel Too wrote:
What currency is paying a higher rate of return/risk than USD? Euro?
here's a new Bernanke vid I'm working on, yes I cannibalized another
but added Marc Faber's voice and a Michael Jackson snippet of Smooth Criminal...
granted it needs some work...
YouTube - Banker Bernanke is a Smooth Criminal says Marc Faber & Javier Bardem & Angelina J!
Gavshire Hathaway wrote:
However, as Italy is part of this thread it might be the Italian solution. Italy has had a US style government 50+ years now. It really doesn't matter as long as the peasants aren't starving and have enough entertainment. As somebody said on here a few days ago, the US really is allot like Italy, the only difference - that which hid the comparison - was that the US has (had) economic power.
But, now, hell - maybe the peasants will realize they aren't starving and nothing else really matters. As long as people pretend "good-enough" everything works out.
China buying gold is telling me this.
Same as it ever was.
And the days go by, water flowing under
BTW, Mish has finally figured out what a Tragedy Of The Commons is, except he apparently doesn't have a name for it.
the trade isn't arbitraging current interest rates, but rather future repayment. sell/short USD today, (hopefully) payback/cover in devalued USD.
Dollar Increasingly Used to Fund Carry Trade « naked capitalism
broward,
How is the pace of interviews and calls recently? Close to any offers that appeal?
isn't it "javier" and not "xavier"
Did you see that? As soon as this thread got going, SRS turned green.
M-no way if you are including airfare. May be possible if you do it on the cheap not including airfare. Was there last month, rental car was $800/week. Heck, water on the dinner table runs you 4 euro at most places. After you've paid a cover charge to sit down (not everywhere, but common enough). Almost became numb to the prices they were so high. Lodging isn't cheap there regardless of what someone said upthread. I think you would be lucky to find a b&b for anything near 100 euros/night in small towns, bigger towns good luck. We had a great time in spite of the prices. Airfare for us was 500$/person, less than half what we paid to get to Europe the year before.
A really smart vampire or disease keeps feeds on the victim as long as possible. A quick kill is not optimal.
scone wrote:
And who is smarter then the smart amoral scum-bags that run Merica !
Merica F*** YEAH!!!!
Watching the markets in between naps after being up all night with a sick child is an interesting experience. Did Captain Elmo hijack the Kermit Express... because it looks like he just lit up the fasten seat belt sign, and we are coming in for a hard landing, ready or not?
Basel
right you are sir... MS had me thinking about Italia and the pignola crumbs got between me and my
keyboard...
thanks...
speaking of Pignola where's that bloody pig?
How is the pace of interviews and calls recently?
I start a six-month gig on Monday.
I'm debating over buying a car today or tomorrow as I'm driving back to Seattle.
Jobs seem like they've dried up again.
I was getting 5-6 calls/emails per day but that's down to perhaps 1 in the past 2-3 weeks.
I assume it's end-of-year budget effect and I'll get a pick-up again in Dec / Jan.
Like Gnome, I usually rent houses for a week at a time. Our last trip we had the kids and did several days in Rome before hitting Sicily and Tuscany.
We rented this place in Rome - right by the colisseum. Walkable to pretty much all of central rome.
Martina Al Colosseo Apartment Rome - self catering apartment deals and reviews - venere.com
In Tuscany we rented a farmhouse that was in the middle of the chianti region - south of Florence, near Greve. We had the kids and friends with us - so we got a bigger place there... but this property has several small houses.
Casanuove di Sopra | Holiday Villa in Badia a Passignano - Greve in Chianti | To Tuscany
No advice on Venice... only been there once, years ago. It's on my to-do list.
Also - check out reviews and advice over at slowtrav.com... Those folks are SERIOUS about Italy.
Yay! HomeGnome is back! Hope you had a great vacation. Glad your back safely.
Yeah, you can tell how the "recession" is doing a real number on the people on this site. I guess the peasants are suffering tho. (More cake anyone?)
Today's price action bears a disturbing resemblance to the flight path of a ballistic missile. Gap open = powered flight off the launcher followed by a nicely parabolic ballistic flight path.
Bob- "Streets of Fire" was a great movie, career peak for Michael Pare.
dryfly wrote:
I understand it's not an explicit policy. And I recognize that it's a gradual accumulation. My point is that if the goal is to not move the price, the program would end up having to be minor because gold liquidity is low. If the purpose is to acquire gold, it will drive up the price relatively quickly. As soon as investors see this type of CB purchase program, even though it's not explicit or mandatory, it could be enough to spark a bubble in the price of gold as everyone piles in at once.
I'm pretty sure we have the same outlook and I'm just not thinking it through, dryfly; my brain is elsewhere on work today.
I start a six-month gig on Monday.- B
Congratulations!
Hi Gnomester.
How much weight did you put on?
NOTaREALmerican,
I always thought the majority of people here were in between the rabble and the elites. We can smell the cake from the kitchen window, and boy does it smell good, but we can see the hungry, hurt, and angry eyes staring up at the castle from below. Somewhere in the back of our heads is a word...tyranny ...that keeps us up at night.
Maybe GS is 'testing' today...
Hey what happened here, we're heading towards
land this afternoon.
very well said Vonbeck...
Ciao
MS
Saudi central banker denies $ replacement story:
Saudi C. Banker Denies Talk of Replacing Dollar for Oil - All * Energy * News * Story - CNBC.com
damn you broward...
I had to log in again to name drop (my specialty)...
never met Michael Pare but I did know his ex-wife in
'87... she was on American Gladiators.
told my how Streets of Fire was supposed to catapult him to
stardom, they were set and then it didn't happen... forget the details
maybe they both liked blow too much...
Mattress maker Simmons to file for Chapter 11
Mattress maker Simmons to file for Chapter 11 - LA Daily News
Do I sense a pun?
Vonbek777 wrote:
Yeah, perhaps. But, we all know how exponential the income and wealth graphs looks. Most of the peasants I work with are nowhere near EVER going to Italy. This site - probably like many financial site - is pretty "abnormal". Especially in social-class ranking.
Not that that's BAD or anything, some of my best friends are in those social-classes!
Must'a been some majik 'shrooms in you Kewl-Ade
Simmons is too big too fail. How are people going to keep putting money under their mattresses if they can't get one?
Also CNY
I don't think "Streets Of Fire" was the problem.
I think it was "Space Rage" that killed him
Michael Paré
OT: Question about "hard currency" funds (e.g. Franklin Templeton Hard Currency Fund ):
.
Any reasons why such a fund would be a bad investment risk for the small retail investor? Looking for a good currency risk play for my USDs.
come on yakety
mattresses are not for money anymore..they're for re-producing and wild nights of spontenous combustion...and they deliver a solid support or backing to the condom industry...
Now shoe boxes are a different story...
"I always thought the majority of people here were in between the rabble and the elites. We can smell the cake from the kitchen window, and boy does it smell good, but we can see the hungry, hurt, and angry eyes staring up at the castle from below. Somewhere in the back of our heads is a word...tyranny ...that keeps us up at night."
This is the class from which most revolutionary leaders come.
Back from a meeting,
THANK YOU for all the italy recommendations. I really appreciate it. Can't substitute for experienced recommendations.
There you have it, folks; the next big bubble. In order for the world economy to work, people need to be able to buy stuff. Punish the dollar holders too much, and everybody suffers. Might provide momentary schaden freud for the Europeans, Russians, or Chinese, but when they see what it does to their economies, and it will hurt them, they won't be quite so pleased.
Well Fiskie did just make it up. The guy is just tabloid clown at a half respected newspaper.
~splat
For info, I was not going to rent a car. I was hoping to just take trains between locations, and not go to too many places. So a week in rome is possible (with a rental apartment) and a week somewhere else is also possible. I haven't decided how to do Tuscany/Venice, (i.e. do both, do one, which one?)
Parents may be coming also to help with the toddler, alternate nights out, etc. They would pay their way.
Is Italy still family friendly? They used to be crazy about kids and hand out free food etc, but they seem to anti-kids now based on the birth rate.
I think it depends on where the kids hail from, and how well behaved they are M.
M wrote:
Interesting comment. Their birth rate is falling but they aren't anti-kid. Kids are expensive accessories. Many Italians (and Europeans) can't afford them. Plus, the youth are losing their religion and nationalism, so some of the pressure to reproduce is reduced.
feralpig wrote:
And angry bloggers.
Loved that movie
From the next Vanity Fair:
Obama, covering phone with hand: "Who? The Dalai Lama? Look, I'm talking to China right now - tell him I'll call him next week some time, or maybe after the first of the year."
Aide: "Sir, other Presidents have found it prudent to at least pretend to be in favor of human rights ...he'll be in town soon, and usually the President schedules an appointment in ..."
Obama, interrupting: "Look, tell him to fuck off, OK? I'm trying to sell goddamn Treasuries, here!"
broward wrote:
Nah, he was just another piece 'o pretty boy meat with a following from a TV show and a few low-budget movies that did okay. That sort of career is all about marketing and momentum (AKA luck). Lose the momentum, you'll probably never get it back.
Now Diane Lane -- that's another matter. Oboy is that another matter.
threetorches wrote:
HA!!! Too funny!!
Edit: Great simulation of the format of the articles too!
"Obama postpones meeting with Dalai Lama"
"New conditions from our creditors.
That's right. You don't want to piss off the landlord."
I wonder if Obama has the decency to feel humiliated. It seems a long time ago that I voted for Obama, and with enthusiasm.
"Sir, other Presidents have found it prudent to at least pretend to be in favor of human rights"
LOL.
Seriously, the Chinese are tired of hearing about Tibet. They stole it fair and square.
If you can't afford Italy, try Istanbul. Most of the big attractions are about 10 - 20 TL, and a decent meal for 2 is about 40 TL (about 30USD).
Our admittedly basic hotel runs $70/night with cold breakfast of olives, tomatoes, cheese, yoghurt, coffee etc., thrown in.
Ha! And I got to shake my fist at some Soc Gen bankers attending the IMF. A bunch seemed to be staying at the Four Seasons which occupies a block just up from the restaurant district in old town.
Gotcha on the car thing. The rome apt. I linked is good for no car. (We didn't have one... had a 4yo and 6yo with us.) We did a lot of walking with the occasional bus ride in Rome. Kids help up great. The house I linked near Greve, in Tuscany absolutely needs a car. So that's out. Given that you're doing the train thing - stay in Florence proper. Since you're travelling with a kid - apt's are a lot nicer (napping, snacks, etc are easier to manage in an apt rather than a hotel room -for a similar price/night.) We didn't have a car for Rome & Taormina, and picked one up in Florence to get around Tuscany.
There are decent bus lines to get around tuscany if you want to day-trip by bus. (Trains don't go to all the hill towns.)
If you can't afford Italy, try Istanbul.
My brother and his wife have lived there for >6 years.
Cinco-X wrote:
They should have known better - using the USD as a merchantilist tool to hammer exports home certainly was not a benevolent use of their 'reserves'. I feel no pity for them.
Remember how PO'd everyone got when the Soviets did the same thing to Afghanistan ? Maybe if they'd been a supplier of oil or opium poppies someone would have cared.
~splat
Gavshire-
'The blending of truth with conspiracy...' Bingo!
Pigged.
Yes and no. The people loved the kids. Ooohed & ahed. But the infrastructure we expect here in the US wasn't there... No booster seats in restaurants or sippy cups with straws. My 4 year old was so used to plastic cups he literally bit through the glass of the wine glass the water was served in. (No blood, thank goodness. And the waiter was super nice about it.)
We found if we paced our travelling to the kids - stopping when we found a playground... taking gelato breaks... worked well. And despite the language thing - our kids made friends with local kids at every playground.
ucgal,
Could I perhaps contact you later via email re: italy?
my email is hannibal81 AT yahoo DOT com
(hannibal is for the carthaginian original hannibal)
I only know him from Eddie & the Cruisers and its pointless sequel, and the word that I once read to describe him was overwrought. It seemed to fit.
fried wrote:
I'm sure he knows; he's the guy who got left holding the bag for an ailing empire, with few options open. If Obama doesn't watch it, he'll wish he had it good enough to be the next Herbert Hoover. He might end up like that guy nobody remembers who was president of Iraq after the Shah and before the ayatollahs; or the guy who headed the Russian gov't after the czars but before the Commies. The reasonable compromise candidate acceptable to all; and thus largely ineffectual on the big issues.
I live in Manhattan and I like this thread...yesterday we had cratering tax receipts for New York State, now we have vacancy rates for CRE in Manhattan skying...and apartmnet rents falling with vacancies there too. Sure glad the recession is over or things could get messy here.
If you want an additional headache....rent a car. Do not buy train tickets in advance...Trenitalia does not take out of country credit cards and they are more expensive if you have a broker do it for you. The one caveat is that you'll have to adjust to doing things on a different time scale...if you can do that you should have no problems. It may seem like a pain in the ass having to push your luggage around stations ( and it is in most cases since elevators and/or escalators are pretty scarce) but it pails in comparison to dealing with parking a car.
One additional thing...if you plan on collecting the VAT upon departure schedule PLENTY of time to do this. You still won't get the money at the airport as you still have to mail it back to them but in Milan's Malpensa airport if you had the items in your packed suitcase you still had to go and check-in....they gave you the bag back and then you had to trapse to the the opposite side of the airport...go through customs...take your bag back to the check in counter....go through security and then get your paperwork stamped just prior to entering in the duty free area that they funnel you into. At each step there was also passport control. Had I done it it would have taken 2-3 hours minimum......I passed. The lines were horrendous....BTW the stuff I bought wasn't so that I could collect the tax back so I didn't care.
Ciao
MS
re: OCC blocking regulation:
These regulations also included less restrictive definitions of "small" and "intermediate small" banks.[15] "Intermediate small banks" were defined as banks with assets of less than $1 billion but more than $250 million, which allowed these banks to opt for examination as either as a small bank or a large bank. (italics mine)
Community Reinvestment Act - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
~ see section entitled: Regulatory changes 2005
further: In general, the OCC conducts a CRA examination of a national bank every three years. However, the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act mandates an extended examination cycle for smaller banks. CRA examinations for banks with an overall CRA rating of outstanding and aggregate assets of $250 million or less can be started no sooner than 60 months after the most recent CRA examination. Similarly, CRA examinations for banks with an overall CRA rating of satisfactory and aggregate assets of $250 million or less can be started no sooner than 48 months after the most recent CRA examination. Banks may be removed from this extended CRA examination cycle for reasonable cause or in connection with an application for a depository facility.
OCC: CRA Information
broward wrote:
This very much mirrors my experience, as it went from a fairly steady regimen of interviews, but no offers from Apr - Jul, but not a peep until today, where I have my first interview in months, with a gaming developer, which has my interest piqued.