"It makes me wonder whether the avalanche is on its way for office and retail (real estate) unless things change really quickly and really drastically," Victor Calanog, Reis director of research, said.
I have calculated the CS-CPI for January of this year (cited by Mish) and compared it with the CS-CPI now (calculating OER as 25% of total CPI, and once obtaining the value for the remaining 75%, re-doing the calculation using the Case-Schiller index, just updated this morning). It turns out the CS-CPI bottomed earlier this year. In January the CS-CPI was (-10.1%). Now it stands at (-5.3%).
"This is a historic time," says George Jaramillo, 35, a business analyst in Atlanta, who recently purchased three homes, including two at foreclosure prices. "It's a great opportunity to make some great gains in the future."
Young people are benefiting in other ways, too. The Cash for Clunkers program allowed them to trade in beaten-up used cars and buy new ones at a discount. "They're never going to see that again," says John Rogin, who owns a Buick dealership in Livonia, Mich.
You'll probably never see Buick's again. What a clown
"The Consumer Price Index has recorded a rare drop over the past 12 months — 1.5 percent. And the decline for many goods and services has been much greater, allowing young people to put even more money into stocks and housing."
Young people you still have a chance to avoid Wall St.
In regards to the CPI, I pointed out during the debate that the CPI was currently way overstated because it did not include housing prices. Amerman objected because homes are assets.
Erm...not to get all weird and what not....but if the population is still increasing at the same time "Rising vacancies. Falling Rents." and rising foreclosures......where are all the people going?
Comrade Misean is Dope (profile) wrote on Mon, 10/5/2009 - 10:06 pm
reply ignore user
"beats standing in line for a $10T haircut..."
You don't stand in line for those. You bend over.
Haircuts of your a** are really painful. A bic lighter is faster and less painful.
mp,
There's a problem maybe at 5:38 of the Janet Tavakoli interview on C-Span when she says with calm confidence concerning deposits under the threshold of $250,000 individually, 'Your deposits are just fine...you will get your money...the FDIC is doing a very good job with that.'
Michael Geoghegan, chief executive of HSBC, is so convinced there will be a second downturn in the coming months that he plans to delay any rush to expand the bank.
“Is this a V recovery or a W?” Mr Geoghegan asked in an interview with the FT. “[I think] it’s the latter. [If I’m right], we have to be very careful we don’t grow the balance sheet so far before the recovery has come only to write it back into the impairment line later on. I’m cautious about growing too fast.”
Somehow I doubt that the Fed is having nightmares: dreams are rarely cut from whole cloth, and there is no evidence they thinking seriously about the damage that has ALREADY been done. and perceived need to shield the truth from the great unwashed dominates their thoughts. If they are having any thoughts to the contrary, then they are the first government in history (overstatement) that completely conceals their activity and plans.
David Palmer sang lead on two of the tracks ("Dirty Work" and "Brooklyn [Owes the Charmer]") on Can't Buy A Thrill, Steely Dan's first album, at the insistence of ABC Records executives (and lead on all of Steely Dan's songs when performed live in their early concerts – as a result of Donald Fagen's stage fright), but was relegated to backing vocals on their subsequent release, Countdown to Ecstasy. Donald Fagen eventually took over as lead vocalist, and Palmer left the band.
Won't the vacancy rates on commercial properties hurt more?
No. Oh, you mean everybody else.
I wondered about that 10+ vacancy rate a couple days ago. At 8 percent I expect to see all the big banners hanging on the buildings with rent reductions, free rent, or move-in specials. Then a few months later we'll read complaints about how people are taking advantage of the poor innocent property managers.
Tavakoli uses her 2005 lunch with billionaire investor Warren Buffett and their ensuing correspondence as the backbone of her analysis of the current financial crisis. Buffett, who read a draft of the book as early as last July, told Tavakoli he would feature it “prominently” at Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s annual meeting in May.
“I think you’re in for a lot of fun,” Buffett wrote the author in a December e-mail.
Tavakoli, 55, spent 22 years working in the structured- finance departments of Wall Street firms, securitizing mortgages and other loan
Onaran: Why didn’t the regulators realize this?
Tavakoli: They were all sleeping -- the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal Reserve, the Congress, the Senate banking committee and a number of other people. I wrote the SEC in February 2007, complaining about rating agencies.
I remember this... I was posting like a crazy asshole on yahoo, warning people about this un-resolved bear Stearns case... and then it just dropped out of site and it was insane that DOJ and FTC, FBI ....everyone just seemed to ignore it!!!!
In August of 2005, the SEC was investigating Bear Stearns Cos. for mortgage securitization. Then they dropped the matter. The New York attorney general had an investigation and he dropped it too.
Tavakoli: They were all sleeping -- the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal Reserve, the Congress, the Senate banking committee and a number of other people.
No, they weren't sleeping. They were ideologically opposed to any form of regulation (including enforcement of existing regulations) that would limit the so-called 'free market' from doing the wondrous things it does.
Ahhh... that brings back memories related to the prior story at Vanity ... and as some may recall, before bear fell, there was an FBI investigation, which was also dropped
The F.B.I. has opened investigations into 14 corporations as part of a crackdown on improper subprime lending, agency officials said on Tuesday.
F.B.I. officials told reporters that the inquiry involved potential violations including accounting fraud and insider trading.
Separately, Bear Stearns, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley said government investigators were seeking information from them about their subprime mortgage activities. But it was not immediately clear if the disclosures by the three banks were linked to the F.B.I. probes.
F.B.I. officials did not identify the companies they were looking at, but said the investigation reached across the industry to include developers, subprime lenders, companies that securitized loans and investment banks that held them.
The management of my complex hit me with a $200 kicker for staying month to month over my $1700 base when my lease expired. They have all the banners and move in specials running. I told them let me stay at the regular rate or I'll probably move. They said no. I can get $1400 just down the road. There isn't exactly a shortage of space on the Portland waterfront at the moment. Dumb.
The U.S. apartment vacancy rate rose to 7.8 percent in the third quarter, its highest since 1986, ... according to Reis.
CR then wrote:
" Note: the Reis numbers are for cities. The overall vacancy rate from the Census Bureau was at a record 10.6% in Q2 2009."
Without CR's note, I would have been thoroughly confused by this story, having already read here that the rate had exceeded 10%. The Reuters story CR linked never mentioned anything about Reis limiting his data to certain cities.
"It makes me wonder whether the avalanche is on its way for office and retail (real estate) unless things change really quickly and really drastically,"
See how people are beginning to beg for it.
"It" being currency devaluation and hyperinflation.
Seen this happen so many times before. MSM reports on currancy devaluation rumors, meetings, agreements etc. They are getting J6P ready for when it happens. No one whats J6P to panic, so they build it up, get it talked about.
MSM does this all the time with different subjects, so if you just pay a little attention you know what is coming in the short term.
Yep, it's great to be a renter. Looks like renting will be the best option for quite a while...
On the other hand if you are an underwater owner you can live for a year or more at no cost at all while waiting for the bank to eventually foreclose, and then rent, really maximising the benefit.
And for the CA people out there, will CA become America's first failed state? Note the author's use of "first", i.e. there will be more than one...
merchants of fear
reminds me of some Brit nit-wit I knew in Ho Chi Minh City a few years ago who elected to undergo a colonscopy
in that city's hospital... upside: cost 20 bucks, downside: unsure if apparatus had been totally sterilized and
no anesthetic... during the procedure said nit-wit who had a bit in his mouth to keep from swallowing his tongue
started screaming in pain and one of the doctors slapped him and said 'stop screaming like a woman' ...
- at that point waterboarding sounded like a seaside holiday....
"Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oil will no longer be priced in dollars," said the report, adding that France had also been involved in the talks.
The Independent said U.S. authorities were aware that the meetings had taken place but had not discovered the details and were "sure to fight this international cabal."
Seen this happen so many times before. MSM reports on currancy devaluation rumors, meetings, agreements etc. They are getting J6P ready for when it happens. No one whats J6P to panic, so they build it up, get it talked about.
J6P doesn't care as long as he keeps his job & beer doesn't get too expensive.
dryfly,
J6P might get a little worked up if the price of pizza keeps going up with that beer. Well my youngest woke up with a fever and promptly threw up all over me. Fever is mild, too early to tell what we got here, but it is going to be a long night/morning.
"Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oil will no longer be priced in dollars," said the report, adding that France had also been involved in the talks.
Doesn't matter if oil is priced in dollars - only matters how much of the reserves are held in dollars.
Could price & buy oil in euros then convert to dollars for reserves... acts as if always priced in dollars & reserves held in dollars.
Likewise could price & buy in dollars then quickly convert reserves to euro's yen - whatever - and it acts as if dollars weren't involved at all.
Money is fungible - so it doesn't matter what the transaction is denominated in - it only matters what the bottom line reserves are held as. And as long as the forex functions they can buy/sell & reserve in any currency at the stroke of a mouse click.
Well my youngest woke up with a fever and promptly threw up all over me. Fever is mild, too early to tell what we got here, but it is going to be a long night/morning.
for those of you keeping score at home Thursday in my Tony Montana day, on that day I get to strap up with the
biggest weapons the ninja 's dad has in his armory - for photo-ops only, gentleman -
'say hello to my little friend!" (damn, if only I knew where to get a white suit like that around here...)
another small joy is taking out the bullet proof Mercedes for a spin... the other day I asked her if paw
had a driver, no, she said. well, he does carry guns in the car... oh yes, she said... but I said isn't that
dangerous for him... no, because he's a former soldier and the car is bullet proof (not sure if it is bomb proof)...
....
who knew I'd be this close to the Khmer Rouge...
....
I currency...are you out there? any deals popping up in NYC apt rentals...? I need a new base...
not sure if CraigsList gives me any real info, more like I'd have to talk with brokers...No?
This prediction may be good as any (on the net) by forecasters like Celente, etc...prophecy...inspired by Nostradamas... .: M A H E N D R A P R O P H E C Y :.
obviously, no one gives a rat's ass about my story but I did notice a mention of a new Jim the Realtor vid but no link...
looking for more voice over material...
....
wish I knew more about guns, I'm sure her old man has some cool handguns not available to non military via Thailand or China,
and maybe some gas grenades...
good news is that he's away in Phnom Penh (Ferris Bueller anyone?) bad news is he better not
show up unexpectedy or else my severed head will be adorning his driveway.
- in the history of placing heads atop pikes do you think anyone has ever gone to the trouble of placing struts
inside the mouths of the severed heads to induce a smile?
just a thought...
....
now back to the Drudge rumor...
Just snapped straight up from a colorful dream about doom, disaster, and deprivation of all sort.
Juvie has me scared. I may not leave the house today. I have pushed large furniture items against the doors, mattressed the windows and pre-loaded all my clips.
Of course, it has occurred to me that this is an unnecessary precaution. I don't know who Juvie is, don't care to either. I don't know what Juvie knows, don't care to either. What if Juvie is just another dweedle poking a needle toward our collective?
Sorry merchants...
I screwed up... it was a comment made by poic right above yours:
""beats standing in line for a $10T haircut..."
You don't stand in line for those. You bend over. Haircuts of your a** are really painful. A bic lighter is faster and less painful." oops
I just don't understand Duke's admiration of those Cambodian medieval idiots. Beheadings just like Taliban. They killed almost everybody during 1970's who had glasses?! Only recently they started to come out of that very very dark period.
Tarzan:
'They killed almost everybody during 1970's who had glasses?"
this was propaganda created by the Vietnamese after they invaded in '79
for 'humanitarian purposes' and fed to a western press corps who lapped it
up.
The Vietnamese were the first ones to charge the KR regime with genocide. It wasn't
genocide unless you take the true meaning of that term and stretch it like Gumby thereby
said term looses its 'horrific' connotation. what happened here is what happended in Russia
in '28 to '33, in Mao's China during the Cultural Revolution, in Ho's N. Vietnam in '56-'60 and
so on.... it was a purge of enemies. The last thing the Vietnamese wanted was it to be seen as yet
again a Communist bloodbath.
Comparing the KR to the Taliban is not a good comparison. Cambodians have never subjugated their women.
Even Pol Pot recognized that he could not kill Shianouk and treated him with great respect (during the Viet invasion they tried to take him prisoner by launching a number amphibian assaults against the Palace which were repulsed by the KR with tremendous ferocity...)
as for my 'admiration' you have it all wrong.. think of me as an anthropologist who gets to get close to a
subject of interest...
Volker
you are totally mistaken! the Cambodians love to see the word 'genocide' splashed almost everywhere because tourists pay money
to see it, and also, they do not have an equivalent word in their vocabulary, it doesn't mean a thing to them.
ok, armchair genius - name me a class that was systematically eliminated or attempted to be eliminated by KR policy...
the problem is most of what you know was based on rickety scholarship on the 80s and early 90s which was all spoon fed by Hanoi...
access to Viet occupied Cambodia before '92? Good luck with that. guess you don't remember all the vitriolic speeches made in the UN
in '79 against that regime, calling them at one point a backward medieval society. that was crybaby histrionics on their part because the rules committee voted (13 -7) to seat the KR at the legit gov of Kampuchea, not their puppet gov. wawawawawawa
many questions still can't be answered unless Hanoi opens its archives, which in an extreme foolhardy way they did for Pol Pot which only instensified his hatred of the those double dealing inglorious besterds, which will never happen in my lifetime.
there were a number of battles that had some very stange tactics on the part of the defending KR, suicidal in nature... it would be interesting to see how deeply infiltrated they were in the command structure.
....
what do you think of the POW list submitted by Hanoi only after we signed the Paris Peace Accords? it was half of what our experts thought it should be... so what happened to the other approx. 1,100?
Re oil priced, in dollars, it makes perfect sense that it doesn't matter what the currency is.
HOWEVER, if countries have been choosing in the past to hold dollar reserves for whatever reason - related to oil trading or not - but now they are thinking that it is in fact a stupid place for thier wealth (duh!) and they start to move their reserves to other currencies, or to commodities (like gold), then this would have a destructive effect on the dollar, no?
I think this is what the author of the Independent article is getting at, although he has maybe got his wires crossed on the pricing of oil compoenet of the argument.
I remember one of my first ever posts, a few years ago, in which I suggested that all the empty condos in Florida be converted to debtors prisons and everybody who had lied on a mortgage application by exagerating their income etc (otherwise known as "mortgage fraud") be promptly tossed in forthwith.
However, I have had a complete change of heart over the last couple of years. First of all there is the obvious fact that a mortgage is nothing more than a contract between buyer and bank. The buyer is free to hand over the house to the bank in lieu of making the payments, and the bank should be indifferent between the two outcomes (house v monthly payments) provided they have adequately assessed risk and properly valued the collateral.
Mostly though, I think the main reason for my change of heart was the bailouts. Was there anything more shocking and shameful in this whole mess than seeing Wall Street handed billions upon billions (are we at trillions yet?) rather than sucking up their losses like they should have. They should have been nationalised and split up. Instead, they were made even too bigger to fail.
So, now it is joe average's turn at the trough. Good on him. Underwater on your house? Send the bank your keys and RENT! Renting gives you mobility - helpful if your job-hunting. Renting gives you freedom from association fees, maintenance, upkeep and property taxes. Go ahead, the banks deserve every set of keys mailed in.
These apartments are too big, I wouldn't mind living in a 1 room flat that was in town, but shelling out 500 bucks for some Condensed Suburbia out of the way is out of the question.
lets see.......if a dozen of my chickens' eggs were/are worth $2.50 and after inflation they might be worth $5.00 a dozen, I guess you could say my eggs, milk, butter, cheese, veggies, beef & chickens are kind of like a "floating currency in itself, huh? All I gotta do is make sure they all stay happy, right?
Mish addresses only the oil pricing bit, and his argument is valid. He does not however talk about what the consequences might be if other countries decide the USD is a dud currency not worthy of reserve status and invest thier own reserves accordingly.
LOL.....Hell Eric, if I knew anything, I surely wouldn't be slaving 18-hours a day.......I'd be a financial guru - like all you guys - instead of growing cukes and tomatoes.......
Zero CPI increase for a couple of years is not the Fed's nightmare. It would produce several positives.
With dollar devaluation, there is not much risk of below zero CPI. The U.S. imports too much, and food and energy prices will rise quite a bit. Negative OER would just offset it.
Having too many empty apartments is a nightmare for CRE owners but not for the Fed.
LOL.....Hell Eric, if I knew anything, I surely wouldn't be slaving 18-hours a day.......I'd be a financial guru - like all you guys - instead of growing cukes and tomatoes.......
Heh... I always considered you to have planned and executed the ultimate fallback position... something most of us fragile flowers here would never attempt. And sounds like you have made finance mainly irrelevant to you -- a fine achievement. Maybe the rest of society will catch up in a century or two.
.....I will say ONE thing....this town's changin'.........seems a lot of the family types are leaving...........a rougher crowd seems to be moving in.........more miner types and out-of-towners.........more domestic issues - drunks and assaults........and everyone's pissed about something even when sober.......the WIC program for Nye County is broke.........the only shelter here for embattled women and kids is day-by-day operable........the $1000 we raised for them this last weekend on the Poker Run was going straight for diapers and stuff.......
From an earlier thread:"So I'm guessing the notes were in a big stack of boxes in the basement, and no one wanted to spend money on a person to dig through the boxes and find them."
I read this and flashed on my first job out of college, working for the records department of a recently merged bank. Picture a dimly lit, damp basement full of randomly stacked with poorly marked boxes. Then we get told "we want the teller tape for this particular teller, from this branch on this date." And we're basicly box movers. As often as not the answer after three guys spending four hours looking was, "can't find it."
Hope it's still early enough to indulge in a ramble. I think the country has come to resemble nothing so much as a house much altered by a succession of owners. My parents once restored a federal-era farm in the Shenandoah, stripping away the detritus of recent squatters and all the questionable accretions born of sixteen decades of varying "tastes", then incorporating the various comforts available now - ones the original builders couldn't have anticipated - in such a way as not to disturb any of the fine attributes of the original.
I think we'd do well to get working on the thistle-infested yard, the drain-holes punched through outside walls, makeshift porches, the pile of detritus clogging the root cellar and the cistern, and give the place a proper cleaning and refinishing. And to recall that a two-level barn and a well-made smoke house have got their uses as much today as in the distant past.
Take the metaphor where you will, this place has been neglected severely and needs attention.
Having too many empty apartments is a nightmare for CRE owners but not for the Fed
But too many empty apartments lowers rents, which makes it hard to reflate house asset prices, which means the banks have to hide their losses even longer, which must be at least inconvenient for the Fed, no?
The lackeys in apt management have a playbook that hasn't changed. They know that a large fraction won't move. So you have to make good on your threat.
What does the Fed do about this? Simple. They make sure that OER is falsely stated. That's right, they get on the phone and say, "Lie about the numbers'.
Having too many empty apartments is a nightmare for CRE owners but not for the Fed
It's not the CRE owners that the Fed is concerned with, it's the banks that lent them the money to buy the CRE that the fed cares about. Lets face it, the're likely to be rather more "ruthless" when thinking about default than residential owner/occupeirs. That's par of the reason that they pay more interest.
Won't the vacancy rates on commercial properties hurt more?
On the plus side, my investment in empty appliance boxes is looking nigh onto presient now.
"It makes me wonder whether the avalanche is on its way for office and retail (real estate) unless things change really quickly and really drastically," Victor Calanog, Reis director of research, said.
No need to wonder.
So, CPI will fall ... In 2009 the Consumer Price Index fell for the first time since 1955.
Just come to southern CA.. for office space it has already started...
~splat
Here in San Diego I frequently see homeless living in tents under overpasses. See, it really is different here.
From bondaddy: The Bonddad Blog: Getting it wrong about the CS-CPI
I have calculated the CS-CPI for January of this year (cited by Mish) and compared it with the CS-CPI now (calculating OER as 25% of total CPI, and once obtaining the value for the remaining 75%, re-doing the calculation using the Case-Schiller index, just updated this morning). It turns out the CS-CPI bottomed earlier this year. In January the CS-CPI was (-10.1%). Now it stands at (-5.3%).
Uncle Ar wrote:
Hurt who? I am kind of looking forward to some rent reduction...
It would be kind of nice to get a haircut for under 10$ again...
Read this
try not to laugh.
then try not to get angry 
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Port of Tacoma shelves $1B terminal project
yes - but how do we trade the yuan? it seem like the PRC has gone to great lengths to make that extremely difficult.
The banks, thus the fed, thus us little people who pay taxes.
"This is a historic time," says George Jaramillo, 35, a business analyst in Atlanta, who recently purchased three homes, including two at foreclosure prices. "It's a great opportunity to make some great gains in the future."
Does Reis have something against rurals? No coverage at all of the rural apartment overhang.
It's a plot. Despicable.
C
Young people are benefiting in other ways, too. The Cash for Clunkers program allowed them to trade in beaten-up used cars and buy new ones at a discount. "They're never going to see that again," says John Rogin, who owns a Buick dealership in Livonia, Mich.
You'll probably never see Buick's again. What a clown
Blackhalo - beats standing in line for a $10T haircut...
C
"The Consumer Price Index has recorded a rare drop over the past 12 months — 1.5 percent. And the decline for many goods and services has been much greater, allowing young people to put even more money into stocks and housing."
Young people you still have a chance to avoid Wall St.
Lots of crazy shit here:
Safe Haven | Daniel Amerman vs. Mish: Reflections on the Great Inflation/Deflation Debate
In regards to the CPI, I pointed out during the debate that the CPI was currently way overstated because it did not include housing prices. Amerman objected because homes are assets.
Erm...not to get all weird and what not....but if the population is still increasing at the same time "Rising vacancies. Falling Rents." and rising foreclosures......where are all the people going?
Tim waiting for 2012 wrote:
Bear market rallies are also known as sucker's rallies.
"beats standing in line for a $10T haircut..."
You don't stand in line for those. You bend over.
Kids moving back in with parents. Elders moving in with kids. Room mates in every extra bedroom.
Comrade Misean is Dope wrote:
"Soylent Green is People"
where are all the people going?
Josap
Obama said he would unite generations and bring communities close together.
What young people have money for stocks and housing? If they aren't unemployed, they are saddled with crushing debt.
Doc Holiday
You a dentist too?
Comrade Misean is Dope (profile) wrote on Mon, 10/5/2009 - 10:06 pm
reply ignore user
"beats standing in line for a $10T haircut..."
You don't stand in line for those. You bend over.
Haircuts of your a** are really painful. A bic lighter is faster and less painful.
mp,
There's a problem maybe at 5:38 of the Janet Tavakoli interview on C-Span when she says with calm confidence concerning deposits under the threshold of $250,000 individually, 'Your deposits are just fine...you will get your money...the FDIC is doing a very good job with that.'
"What young people have money for stocks and housing?"
Least they got freedom, right Janis?
YouTube - janis joplin me and bobby mc gee
ROLF@poic
CR,
Thanks for the kudos on auto sales earlier
FT.com / Companies / Banks - HSBC chief fears a second downturn
Michael Geoghegan, chief executive of HSBC, is so convinced there will be a second downturn in the coming months that he plans to delay any rush to expand the bank.
“Is this a V recovery or a W?” Mr Geoghegan asked in an interview with the FT. “[I think] it’s the latter. [If I’m right], we have to be very careful we don’t grow the balance sheet so far before the recovery has come only to write it back into the impairment line later on. I’m cautious about growing too fast.”
...
Somehow I doubt that the Fed is having nightmares: dreams are rarely cut from whole cloth, and there is no evidence they thinking seriously about the damage that has ALREADY been done.
and perceived need to shield the truth from the great unwashed dominates their thoughts. If they are having any thoughts to the contrary, then they are the first government in history (overstatement) that completely conceals their activity and plans.
Re: "You a dentist too?"
I'm many things, but I'm not licensed to drill
mof,
No, she's right. It's like Greenspan stated to Congress about Social Security..."We can guarantee cash, but we cannot guarantee purchasing power!"
“Is this a V recovery..."
Depends on the direction the back of the hand is facing. I suspect it is facing the observer.
Speaking of teeth, I always thought this dude could use a dental plan:
YouTube - Steely Dan - Do It Again (original studio version)
David Palmer sang lead on two of the tracks ("Dirty Work" and "Brooklyn [Owes the Charmer]") on Can't Buy A Thrill, Steely Dan's first album, at the insistence of ABC Records executives (and lead on all of Steely Dan's songs when performed live in their early concerts – as a result of Donald Fagen's stage fright), but was relegated to backing vocals on their subsequent release, Countdown to Ecstasy. Donald Fagen eventually took over as lead vocalist, and Palmer left the band.
Re: "Is this a V recovery."
I'm told if you hold it up to a mirror it will cause a special effect:
Mirror writing - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
my personal anthem of the 2002 bear:
YouTube - Steely Dan - Only A Fool Would Say That
OK TJ...Tavakoli also said she hopes the $250,000 FDIC limit is extended and warns depositors to keep an eye on where the limit is at...
Uncle Ar wrote:
No. Oh, you mean everybody else.
I wondered about that 10+ vacancy rate a couple days ago. At 8 percent I expect to see all the big banners hanging on the buildings with rent reductions, free rent, or move-in specials. Then a few months later we'll read complaints about how people are taking advantage of the poor innocent property managers.
Buffett, Tavakoli Flag Scheme Bigger Than Madoff’s (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Tavakoli uses her 2005 lunch with billionaire investor Warren Buffett and their ensuing correspondence as the backbone of her analysis of the current financial crisis. Buffett, who read a draft of the book as early as last July, told Tavakoli he would feature it “prominently” at Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s annual meeting in May.
“I think you’re in for a lot of fun,” Buffett wrote the author in a December e-mail.
Tavakoli, 55, spent 22 years working in the structured- finance departments of Wall Street firms, securitizing mortgages and other loan
Tavakoli: They were all sleeping -- the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal Reserve, the Congress, the Senate banking committee and a number of other people. I wrote the SEC in February 2007, complaining about rating agencies.
In August of 2005, the SEC was investigating Bear Stearns Cos. for mortgage securitization. Then they dropped the matter. The New York attorney general had an investigation and he dropped it too.
No, they weren't sleeping. They were ideologically opposed to any form of regulation (including enforcement of existing regulations) that would limit the so-called 'free market' from doing the wondrous things it does.
Ahhh... that brings back memories related to the prior story at Vanity ... and as some may recall, before bear fell, there was an FBI investigation, which was also dropped
I was posting like a crazy asshole on yahoo, warning people
Go sit over there on the Group W bench with RobDawg (Casey Serin) and crispy & cole Crispy and Cole).
The management of my complex hit me with a $200 kicker for staying month to month over my $1700 base when my lease expired. They have all the banners and move in specials running. I told them let me stay at the regular rate or I'll probably move. They said no. I can get $1400 just down the road. There isn't exactly a shortage of space on the Portland waterfront at the moment. Dumb.
YouTube - cat power-nude as the news
CR then wrote:
" Note: the Reis numbers are for cities. The overall vacancy rate from the Census Bureau was at a record 10.6% in Q2 2009."
Without CR's note, I would have been thoroughly confused by this story, having already read here that the rate had exceeded 10%. The Reuters story CR linked never mentioned anything about Reis limiting his data to certain cities.
"It makes me wonder whether the avalanche is on its way for office and retail (real estate) unless things change really quickly and really drastically,"
See how people are beginning to beg for it.
"It" being currency devaluation and hyperinflation.
The plan is get you to beg for your poison.
Seen this happen so many times before. MSM reports on currancy devaluation rumors, meetings, agreements etc. They are getting J6P ready for when it happens. No one whats J6P to panic, so they build it up, get it talked about.
MSM does this all the time with different subjects, so if you just pay a little attention you know what is coming in the short term.
Yep, it's great to be a renter. Looks like renting will be the best option for quite a while...
On the other hand if you are an underwater owner you can live for a year or more at no cost at all while waiting for the bank to eventually foreclose, and then rent, really maximising the benefit.
And for the CA people out there, will CA become America's first failed state? Note the author's use of "first", i.e. there will be more than one...
Will California become America's first failed state? |
World news |
The Observer
merchants of fear
reminds me of some Brit nit-wit I knew in Ho Chi Minh City a few years ago who elected to undergo a colonscopy
in that city's hospital... upside: cost 20 bucks, downside: unsure if apparatus had been totally sterilized and
no anesthetic... during the procedure said nit-wit who had a bit in his mouth to keep from swallowing his tongue
started screaming in pain and one of the doctors slapped him and said 'stop screaming like a woman' ...
- at that point waterboarding sounded like a seaside holiday....
Morning All
SECRET MEETINGS
"Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oil will no longer be priced in dollars," said the report, adding that France had also been involved in the talks.
The Independent said U.S. authorities were aware that the meetings had taken place but had not discovered the details and were "sure to fight this international cabal."
josap wrote:
J6P doesn't care as long as he keeps his job & beer doesn't get too expensive.
dryfly,
Well my youngest woke up with a fever and promptly threw up all over me. Fever is mild, too early to tell what we got here, but it is going to be a long night/morning.
J6P might get a little worked up if the price of pizza keeps going up with that beer.
Doesn't matter if oil is priced in dollars - only matters how much of the reserves are held in dollars.
Could price & buy oil in euros then convert to dollars for reserves... acts as if always priced in dollars & reserves held in dollars.
Likewise could price & buy in dollars then quickly convert reserves to euro's yen - whatever - and it acts as if dollars weren't involved at all.
Money is fungible - so it doesn't matter what the transaction is denominated in - it only matters what the bottom line reserves are held as. And as long as the forex functions they can buy/sell & reserve in any currency at the stroke of a mouse click.
Been there done that - good luck!
Secret meetings and The Independent was there to cover it or maybe inside sources?
for those of you keeping score at home Thursday in my Tony Montana day, on that day I get to strap up with the
biggest weapons the ninja 's dad has in his armory - for photo-ops only, gentleman -
'say hello to my little friend!" (damn, if only I knew where to get a white suit like that around here...)
another small joy is taking out the bullet proof Mercedes for a spin... the other day I asked her if paw
had a driver, no, she said. well, he does carry guns in the car... oh yes, she said... but I said isn't that
dangerous for him... no, because he's a former soldier and the car is bullet proof (not sure if it is bomb proof)...
....
who knew I'd be this close to the Khmer Rouge...
....
I currency...are you out there? any deals popping up in NYC apt rentals...? I need a new base...
not sure if CraigsList gives me any real info, more like I'd have to talk with brokers...No?
This prediction may be good as any (on the net) by forecasters like Celente, etc...prophecy...inspired by Nostradamas...
.: M A H E N D R A P R O P H E C Y :.
That was tarded.
obviously, no one gives a rat's ass about my story but I did notice a mention of a new Jim the Realtor vid but no link...
looking for more voice over material...
....
wish I knew more about guns, I'm sure her old man has some cool handguns not available to non military via Thailand or China,
and maybe some gas grenades...
good news is that he's away in Phnom Penh (Ferris Bueller anyone?) bad news is he better not
show up unexpectedy or else my severed head will be adorning his driveway.
- in the history of placing heads atop pikes do you think anyone has ever gone to the trouble of placing struts
inside the mouths of the severed heads to induce a smile?
just a thought...
....
now back to the Drudge rumor...
yeah Duke what was the story...
Just snapped straight up from a colorful dream about doom, disaster, and deprivation of all sort.
Juvie has me scared. I may not leave the house today. I have pushed large furniture items against the doors, mattressed the windows and pre-loaded all my clips.
Of course, it has occurred to me that this is an unnecessary precaution. I don't know who Juvie is, don't care to either. I don't know what Juvie knows, don't care to either. What if Juvie is just another dweedle poking a needle toward our collective?
Still, one must be prepared, like a boy scout.
Duke,
Missed the story about the colonoscopy? That was in reference to...
Juvie has me scared.
Something he said today?
oh...now I guess he logged off...have fun in The Deerhunter and Apocalypse Now...
Sorry merchants...
I screwed up... it was a comment made by poic right above yours:
""beats standing in line for a $10T haircut..."
You don't stand in line for those. You bend over. Haircuts of your a** are really painful. A bic lighter is faster and less painful."
oops
Bleach is the preferred method.
I just don't understand Duke's admiration of those Cambodian medieval idiots. Beheadings just like Taliban. They killed almost everybody during 1970's who had glasses?! Only recently they started to come out of that very very dark period.
Recession is over???? Those green shoot smoking assholes in the MSM and the government can go to hell.
And yes, I'm bitter.
On the Beeb - Oz central bank just raised rates
or 
?
guys
just in...Oil trading may be stopped in dollars.
Oil trading to be not done in dollar
What a killer news.....for the dollar
fresbee
China just gets braver and braver.
They have asked the world to take a walk when it comes to yuan free float
China tell the world get lost
fresbee
Aussies have gone ahead raised rates.....first major country to exit the stimulus...
next is ECB
Aus rate hike
This is doom for the dollar. Everyone will exit the stimulus plan except USA.
Tarzan:
'They killed almost everybody during 1970's who had glasses?"
this was propaganda created by the Vietnamese after they invaded in '79
for 'humanitarian purposes' and fed to a western press corps who lapped it
up.
The Vietnamese were the first ones to charge the KR regime with genocide. It wasn't
genocide unless you take the true meaning of that term and stretch it like Gumby thereby
said term looses its 'horrific' connotation. what happened here is what happended in Russia
in '28 to '33, in Mao's China during the Cultural Revolution, in Ho's N. Vietnam in '56-'60 and
so on.... it was a purge of enemies. The last thing the Vietnamese wanted was it to be seen as yet
again a Communist bloodbath.
Comparing the KR to the Taliban is not a good comparison. Cambodians have never subjugated their women.
Even Pol Pot recognized that he could not kill Shianouk and treated him with great respect (during the Viet invasion they tried to take him prisoner by launching a number amphibian assaults against the Palace which were repulsed by the KR with tremendous ferocity...)
as for my 'admiration' you have it all wrong.. think of me as an anthropologist who gets to get close to a
subject of interest...
Duke of Con writes: "It wasn't genocide unless you take the true meaning of that term and stretch it like Gumby..."
This message brought to you by the Cambodian Visitor and Convention Bureau.
Volker
you are totally mistaken! the Cambodians love to see the word 'genocide' splashed almost everywhere because tourists pay money
to see it, and also, they do not have an equivalent word in their vocabulary, it doesn't mean a thing to them.
ok, armchair genius - name me a class that was systematically eliminated or attempted to be eliminated by KR policy...
the problem is most of what you know was based on rickety scholarship on the 80s and early 90s which was all spoon fed by Hanoi...
access to Viet occupied Cambodia before '92? Good luck with that. guess you don't remember all the vitriolic speeches made in the UN
in '79 against that regime, calling them at one point a backward medieval society. that was crybaby histrionics on their part because the rules committee voted (13 -7) to seat the KR at the legit gov of Kampuchea, not their puppet gov. wawawawawawa
many questions still can't be answered unless Hanoi opens its archives, which in an extreme foolhardy way they did for Pol Pot which only instensified his hatred of the those double dealing inglorious besterds, which will never happen in my lifetime.
there were a number of battles that had some very stange tactics on the part of the defending KR, suicidal in nature... it would be interesting to see how deeply infiltrated they were in the command structure.
....
what do you think of the POW list submitted by Hanoi only after we signed the Paris Peace Accords? it was half of what our experts thought it should be... so what happened to the other approx. 1,100?
Re oil priced, in dollars, it makes perfect sense that it doesn't matter what the currency is.
HOWEVER, if countries have been choosing in the past to hold dollar reserves for whatever reason - related to oil trading or not - but now they are thinking that it is in fact a stupid place for thier wealth (duh!) and they start to move their reserves to other currencies, or to commodities (like gold), then this would have a destructive effect on the dollar, no?
I think this is what the author of the Independent article is getting at, although he has maybe got his wires crossed on the pricing of oil compoenet of the argument.
I remember one of my first ever posts, a few years ago, in which I suggested that all the empty condos in Florida be converted to debtors prisons and everybody who had lied on a mortgage application by exagerating their income etc (otherwise known as "mortgage fraud") be promptly tossed in forthwith.
However, I have had a complete change of heart over the last couple of years. First of all there is the obvious fact that a mortgage is nothing more than a contract between buyer and bank. The buyer is free to hand over the house to the bank in lieu of making the payments, and the bank should be indifferent between the two outcomes (house v monthly payments) provided they have adequately assessed risk and properly valued the collateral.
Mostly though, I think the main reason for my change of heart was the bailouts. Was there anything more shocking and shameful in this whole mess than seeing Wall Street handed billions upon billions (are we at trillions yet?) rather than sucking up their losses like they should have. They should have been nationalised and split up. Instead, they were made even too bigger to fail.
So, now it is joe average's turn at the trough. Good on him. Underwater on your house? Send the bank your keys and RENT! Renting gives you mobility - helpful if your job-hunting. Renting gives you freedom from association fees, maintenance, upkeep and property taxes. Go ahead, the banks deserve every set of keys mailed in.
These apartments are too big, I wouldn't mind living in a 1 room flat that was in town, but shelling out 500 bucks for some Condensed Suburbia out of the way is out of the question.
Wow.... back to the highs...... correction over!
What about hotel vacancy rates? Are they still down? The only thing that seems to be at full vacancy are the city jails.
Who needs tenants when you have a printing press?
Damn.......glod at 1027.........I guess that "basket of currencies" thing DID include gold, huh?
,rads
Revolutionary revaluation is upon us.
I trust you've gotten rid of your dollar-denominated assets?
I guess that "basket of currencies"
Mish has a great takedown
on that often circulated rumor (pricing oil in "not dollars").
Won't stop the
crowd though. (Not accusing you, BSR!).
lets see.......if a dozen of my chickens' eggs were/are worth $2.50 and after inflation they might be worth $5.00 a dozen, I guess you could say my eggs, milk, butter, cheese, veggies, beef & chickens are kind of like a "floating currency in itself, huh? All I gotta do is make sure they all stay happy, right?
Good morning..........LOL.....
Mish addresses only the oil pricing bit, and his argument is valid. He does not however talk about what the consequences might be if other countries decide the USD is a dud currency not worthy of reserve status and invest thier own reserves accordingly.
LOL.....Hell Eric, if I knew anything, I surely wouldn't be slaving 18-hours a day.......I'd be a financial guru - like all you guys - instead of growing cukes and tomatoes.......
,rad Area 51-adjacent,
F(i)at Currency?
Zero CPI increase for a couple of years is not the Fed's nightmare. It would produce several positives.
With dollar devaluation, there is not much risk of below zero CPI. The U.S. imports too much, and food and energy prices will rise quite a bit. Negative OER would just offset it.
Having too many empty apartments is a nightmare for CRE owners but not for the Fed.
Black Star Ranch wrote:
Heh... I always considered you to have planned and executed the ultimate fallback position... something most of us fragile flowers here would never attempt. And sounds like you have made finance mainly irrelevant to you -- a fine achievement. Maybe the rest of society will catch up in a century or two.
.....I will say ONE thing....this town's changin'.........seems a lot of the family types are leaving...........a rougher crowd seems to be moving in.........more miner types and out-of-towners.........more domestic issues - drunks and assaults........and everyone's pissed about something even when sober.......the WIC program for Nye County is broke.........the only shelter here for embattled women and kids is day-by-day operable........the $1000 we raised for them this last weekend on the Poker Run was going straight for diapers and stuff.......
May have to start edging back into GDX here, got stopped out at 46.00, 44.35 and 43.09 on the way down, now it's flirting with 46 again.
What's the next shoe to drop when money gets tight?
Money.
Private or Municipal scrip will be issued hither and yon. This is what it looked like back in the day...
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_YGLQQZTHoU0/SN7l-YIU67I/AAAAAAAAEaU/O0-hyWd5XJE/s400/depression_era_script.jpg
The only problems with going back to the future, is it's really easy to counterfeit these nowadays.
From an earlier thread:"So I'm guessing the notes were in a big stack of boxes in the basement, and no one wanted to spend money on a person to dig through the boxes and find them."
I read this and flashed on my first job out of college, working for the records department of a recently merged bank. Picture a dimly lit, damp basement full of randomly stacked with poorly marked boxes. Then we get told "we want the teller tape for this particular teller, from this branch on this date." And we're basicly box movers. As often as not the answer after three guys spending four hours looking was, "can't find it."
Hope it's still early enough to indulge in a ramble. I think the country has come to resemble nothing so much as a house much altered by a succession of owners. My parents once restored a federal-era farm in the Shenandoah, stripping away the detritus of recent squatters and all the questionable accretions born of sixteen decades of varying "tastes", then incorporating the various comforts available now - ones the original builders couldn't have anticipated - in such a way as not to disturb any of the fine attributes of the original.
I think we'd do well to get working on the thistle-infested yard, the drain-holes punched through outside walls, makeshift porches, the pile of detritus clogging the root cellar and the cistern, and give the place a proper cleaning and refinishing. And to recall that a two-level barn and a well-made smoke house have got their uses as much today as in the distant past.
Take the metaphor where you will, this place has been neglected severely and needs attention.
If vacancy's are so high where the hell is everyone living?
http://www.greenofficeprojects.org/blog/images/cardboard_box.jpg
But too many empty apartments lowers rents, which makes it hard to reflate house asset prices, which means the banks have to hide their losses even longer, which must be at least inconvenient for the Fed, no?
EEngineer wrote:
The lackeys in apt management have a playbook that hasn't changed. They know that a large fraction won't move. So you have to make good on your threat.
My rent went up by 3% in Washington, DC. So much for this story.
It's always been different there - until it's not...
18 million empty homes have been Hovel-Ready for some time now...
What does the Fed do about this? Simple. They make sure that OER is falsely stated. That's right, they get on the phone and say, "Lie about the numbers'.
It's not the CRE owners that the Fed is concerned with, it's the banks that lent them the money to buy the CRE that the fed cares about. Lets face it, the're likely to be rather more "ruthless" when thinking about default than residential owner/occupeirs. That's par of the reason that they pay more interest.
More informational ammo to call congress and demand they not extend the homebuyer tax credit
(202) 224-3121
Light it up.