Many have stopped paying mortgages thereby freeing up purchasing power.
The underLYING trend remains - we're in decline. The ponzi debt anchor is still firmly attached to our eCONomy. Actually, the debt anchor has gotten heavier.
The only strong thing in the report is inventory sentiment which is that it is much too high. Which bodes extremely poorly for anyone that believes in production being bolstered with an inventory restocking fueling end demand (or vice versa, it's circular)
Backlog of orders +10.5 to 51.5, Prices -14.3 to 48.8, New Export Orders -5.5 to 48.5, Inventory Sentiment -5.5 to 62
The five industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in September are:
Construction; Accommodation & Food Services; Finance & Insurance; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Wholesale Trade.
The three industries reporting lower backlog of orders in September are:
Mining; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Transportation & Warehousing.
The head of the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said on Sunday that she wanted to end the “too big to fail” doctrine and shrink the shadow banking system that operates outside the reach of regulators.
F.D.I.C. Chairman Sheila Bair, speaking to the Institute of International Finance meeting here, said a U.S. proposal to create the authority to shut down failing systemically important financial firms may need to be extended to insurers and hedge funds, Reuters reported.
The 10 industries reporting a feeling that their inventories are too high in September — listed in order — are: Mining; Finance & Insurance; Other Services; Wholesale Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Accommodation & Food Services; Retail Trade; Information; and Health Care & Social Assistance. The two industries reporting that their inventories are too low in September are: Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; and Transportation & Warehousing.
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing should absolutely not be reporting their inventories are too low.
As for Inventories in general:
Notice the doubling of respondents reporting inventories are too high, hardly a comfort that 2% more said they were too low because of Real Estate
Higher / Same / Lower / Index
Sep 2009 20 55 25 47.5
Aug 2009 9 68 23 43.0
Jul 2009 18 58 24 47.0
Jun 2009 14 62 24 45.0
May 2009 17 60 23 47.0
Apr 2009 12 62 26 43.0
Mar 2009 9 62 29 40.0
Feb 2009 9 60 31 39.0
Jan 2009 16 51 33 41.5
Dec 2008 22 54 24 49.0
Nov 2008 19 54 27 46.0
Oct 2008 21 54 25 48.0
Sep 2008 20 51 29 45.5
Aug 2008 20 67 13 53.5
Jul 2008 22 65 13 54.5
note: growing inventories is a boost to the ISM index, I'm just reading between the lines to project into the future
If Bernanke had been at the helm during 1929 and had the luxury of a fiat money system, he no-doubt would have bailed out the financial fraud and ponzi debt at the expense of the prudent as he is doing today.
I got a similar "WTF?" report in my inbox this morning:
Comerica Bank’s California Economic Activity Index
"DALLAS/October 5, 2009 – Comerica Bank’s California Economic Activity Index rose one point in August to a level of 101. August’s reading is up 10 points, or 11 percent, cumulatively from the Index’s cyclical low of 91 reached in March. August marks the fifth consecutive monthly increase in the Index."
...
"These indicators reflect activity in the manufacturing, tourism, travel and trade sectors, as well as job growth and consumer outlays. The Index levels represent a 3-month moving average, used to smooth monthly volatility."
Computer blips didn't signify wealth in 1929, and it wasn't until FDR got in office in 1933, did the printing presses really get going, after the bank holiday. There was money in every bank, and thus began the public trusting them with their lucre again.
Totally O/T
I called Directv today with the intention of cancelling their service and switching to cable. They persuaded me to stay with
a 25 dollar a month reduction and a one time $350 credit. Deflationary in this instance.
Really? You have no problem with any of their numbers?
Do I have any problem with believing that executives at various companies had a slightly more optimistic view in the month of September? Not at all.
It was a pretty -filled month, seeing as all that positive July and August data (anecdotal and official) kept rolling in. I think those executives will be proven overly-optimistic, but don't shoot the messenger.
I've been thinking of doing the same with DISH network. Did they make you commit to a new long-term contract. I think this is a real example of deflationary pressure.
How's the political beat going up over in Gulag Hockeypelago?
Sorry, not rad I got interrupted halfway through composing the message and accidentally hit submit. I'm getting nothing done today, seeing as I'm trying to clean up email, file, and server errors that prevent me from doing anything. At least my internet is working while I wait for the IT guy to get here.
I haven't heard anything interesting with regard to politics over the past few days, but I'm sure something will pop up soon. It's been a little too quiet lately, and nature abhors a news vacuum.
RE showed a contraction across the board except for increasing inventories, a rise in the use of imports (whatever that translates to), and inventory sentiment. I guess you could interpret inventory sentiment as an opinion that too many homes are being held off the market, that price is being put before volume -- at least relative to the number of realtors who aren't getting enough work to stay in business (employment contracted)
No. I have been a long time customer who pays on time. My bill was $ 81 a month. No premium channels or movies.
I think they are more concerned with revenue than pricing power now.
I've been thinking of doing the same with DISH network. Did they make you commit to a new long-term contract. I think this is a real example of deflationary pressure.
Oddly enough, my better half and I have been working on this for the past few months. Around July we got a bill for $185 for internet, tv, and landline with longdistance, and we decided enough was enough. We're aiming to get all of that, plus a new cellphone, for under $120.
noob - both ISM reports are pretty much worthless. The organization & the classes it offers for certs are worthwhile in most cases but the survey itself is silly.
For anybody who has DSL with ATT you don't have to have a residential service anymore. You do have to have a phone line.
My monthly costs for DSL is $14 . Also, if you are a Fed.Gov employee ATT will give you 25% off of your cell phone plan, including
the Iphone w/data.
I already hit up Directv once for like $300, maybe i'll go back to the well again...
I recently dropped down a tier - no premium channels. They thanked me by giving me 3 months free of Showtime - which I never watch anyway. I guess I should threaten to leave and see if I can get the same $300 credit.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) and Vanguard Group Inc are among U.S. companies opposed to rules proposed by U.S. regulators to limit short selling, according to letters filed by the companies.
Stopped reading after the first line.
.
Edit: But it is a clear sign that the next leg down is starting up. If GS is positioning itself to short companies, then "This baby is going down!"
NEW YORK (AP) -- The U.S. service sector grew in September for the first time in 13 months, an encouraging sign for the fledgling economic recovery although jobs remain scarce.
The Institute for Supply Management said its service index hit 50.9 last month, up from 48.4 in August. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had expected a reading of 50, the dividing line between growth and contraction.
The index, which tracks more than 80 percent of the country's economic activity, including hospitals, retailers, financial services companies and truckers, hadn't grown since August 2008.
No problem with things like this (.8% increase in their employment index)?:
"The industries reporting an increase in employment in September are: Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Educational Services. The industries reporting a reduction in employment in September — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Utilities; Public Administration; Information; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Retail Trade; Finance & Insurance; and Real Estate, Rental & Leasing."
THomas Payne warned of the "artful misrepresentations of interested men".
Payne's warning fully supports the argument that Bernanke, Paulson, Geithner, Summers. et al should NOT be the ones determining how we extricate our economy from this cess pool of financial fraud.
How can we trust that the "usual suspects" are putting the system ahead of papering over their own failings?
Recuse. Why don't CONflict of interest rules apply here? Way to CONvenient.
It's a diffusion index. It's not tracking employment, it's tracking whether certain sectors are hiring more, the same, or less than they were doing so before.
44.3 was the September employment number for non-manufacturing ism. That means employment is contracting (anything less than 50) broadly (without speaking to the depth of the cuts)
FYI--With my homeowner's ins. policy, Travelers was thoughtful enough to send my renewal statement with an automatic coverage increase of 5.5% because of the "increased" cost of rebuilding my house. I challenged their numbers and ended up with a yearly premium of $100 less than their original request (~$20 cheaper than last year's coverage). Make sure you ask to see the data they use for calculating your premium.
noob - both ISM reports are pretty much worthless. The organization & the classes it offers for certs are worthwhile in most cases but the survey itself is silly.
I personally think that most surveys are silly, so you won't find me disagreeing. Perhaps that's what burning madoff was getting at earlier; if so, I owe him/her an apology as I should have prefaced by saying I don't put much trust in the survey itself. I was defending ISM only by saying that the survey does what they say it does, and that most of the problems come from media spin. I also don't put much stock in the Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
However, now that you've all made me do more than a cursory examination of this survey, I did note that I couldn't find a response rate written anywhere on this report. I really don't trust any survey where the response rate isn't expressly communicated to readers. Especially at the level of implied precision that they're using.
noob goldberg said: "The report is what it is. It's the interpretation by media and others that usually skews it..."
Exactly. Treat all the data that way (employment, industrial production, real income, home sales, etc., etc.) , i.e., just look at it and see what it says, and you'll get a clear picture of what's happening and what's most likely to happen next.
Just finished watching some old cartoons, (1930s) with my sons. It is amazing how the see no evil/hear no evil/speak no evil theme was so prevalent. (oh I just looked it up and found out there is a fourth monkey too, I like it when I learn something new) Anyway, is it time to replace our majestic eagle with those three monkeys? I sure smell the symbolism... Mr. Speak no evil for the fed. Mr. See no evil for the Treasury. Mr. Hear no evil for the SEC. Now if we adopted the forth monkey of do no evil...guess we could give that one to the FDIC. Hey I like this.
Quick note of my Dish history...I will never do business with dish network again. Back when I was hopelessly naive (I know, I know.still am)... I signed up for automatic billing...and for six months in a roll, they doubled billed me. I caught it the first time it happened, but it took me six months to get them to acknowledge and fix the problem. Here's the kicker...they didn't refund my money, but gave me a credit...so basically I was supposed to have six months free. After my fifth free month...someone decided this must have been a mistake, and they charged me for six months all at once and emptied out my checking account. I was so lucky at the time I received a pretty hefty bonus, and I didn't have any checks bounce. I had turned off automatic payments by the way...so they did this without premission. It took me another three months to solve this problem. I decided in the course to cancel service, and I wanted the money in a refund not a service credit. This was apparently a problem...and delayed the resolution of my case even further. Not once did Dish stand up and take responsibility for this...it was always a weird mystery or computer glitch. Wasn't their fault. I get tickled when I hear personalities like Dave Ramsey extol the virtues of auto-billing as a means for easy budget management. In my very short history of auto-billing, the satellite, electricity company, telephone, and a credit card...all screwed me. Just my bad luck I guess.
AOL did the same thing to me many years ago. It took a threat of going to my state's Attorney General to get a refund.
I agree, if you autobill you gotta watch your statements like a hawk.
..........seems like that is an invitation to steal - whether by THAT company or the underpaid mole who forwards thousands of accounts data to some unknown for a couple grand in cash..................
I just hate these BS reports that openly allow the MSM to take one point (in this case the old "anything above 50") and produce headlines like this Bloomberg one: U.S. Service Industries Expand for First Time in a Year as Recovery Widens.
If they actually read the report and reported on it, instead of using the headline number and comments from analysts, then ......
Exactly. Treat all the data that way (employment, industrial production, real income, home sales, etc., etc.) , i.e., just look at it and see what it says, and you'll get a clear picture of what's happening and what's most likely to happen next.
The data must be put against changes in market fundamentals, of course. Simply drawing a trend-line without looking at changes in the underlying environment that could have skewed those results is misleading also.
Financial firms subject to systemic risk shutdown authority should likely also be required to publish “living wills” — details on how an orderly wind-down would play out — on their websites to provide more clarity to shareholders and customers.
Burning Madolf
The index is negative if you strip out inventory sentiment which is now demonstrably a defunct indicator
As for the media, they have the power to sucker some people in but the situation at hand is far beyond anything like perception defining the reality
I view it as an opportunity to practice patience
The world’s largest economy shrank the least in more than a year in the second quarter, contracting at a 0.7 percent annual rate, compared with 6.4 percent in the first.
I mean, did many people not get rich off of house prices? Were people not paying prices 100% above those 4 years earlier?
Stupid stuff does happen, and it's important to consider to what degree and what length is something sustainable. If you just ignore the stupidity, you miss out on a lot of humanity
Poor baby, he wanted $10M, but high auction bid was only $6M, so he rejected it.
The master bedroom suite alone is 3,200 square feet, a bit smaller than the 10-car, climate-controlled garage, which measures 4,000 square feet. The driveway is long enough for a firetruck to turn around, and there's a wine storage enclave with room for 1,400 bottles.
The 16,500-square-foot hilltop house -- in the community that was the setting for "The Real Housewives of Orange County" television show -- is just one of dozens of unsold mega-mansions across Southern California conceived during the real estate bubble, when builders waged an ill-timed arms race to ever-increasing extravagance.
Conde Nast just closed three more magazines, including Gourmet, published since 1940. Last year they shuttered Portfolio and Domino magazines. All at behest of McKinsey consulting, who recced a 25% cut...ad revenues have been plummeting, so a lot more writers, editors and photogs are now out of work.
I would argue that the data are the fundamentals, but I like arguing.
Oh I know, Sebastian, I've been reading this blog for at least a year and a half
I'm glad you're back, as I did appreciate your contributions, even if I rarely commented on the boards at that time.
I completely agree with you that data is data; it's nothing more or nothing less. Sometimes we can argue about how it's collected, or the manipulations it undergoes, but in the end it is what it is.
However, taking raw data and using it for predictive purposes requires the overlay of a set of assumptions, whether or not the predictor realizes it. And we can argue about assumptions forever...
The 16,500-square-foot hilltop house -- in the community that was the setting for "The Real Housewives of Orange County" television show -- is just one of dozens of unsold mega-mansions across Southern California conceived during the real estate bubble, when builders waged an ill-timed arms race to ever-increasing extravagance.
you might say data is lagom even
.
Sebastian,
I will counter with data does reflect fundamentals, but the trick is understanding what those fundamentals are.
Think of it in the way you measure the temperature of a chemical reaction. Even if you know what that chemical reaction is, you need to know from where is the temperature measured and the context provided by the exogenous environment -- both of which may change over time irrespective of what happens in the reaction
I flipped by that show a month or two ago, one of the dads dressed up a bunch of the daughters like whores to peddle a red bull ripoff. I think unemployment led to that 'venture capital' foray. That is the difference between the new rich, and the real rich
noob goldberg said: "...However, taking raw data and using it for predictive purposes requires the overlay of a set of assumptions, whether or not the predictor realizes it."
JMO, but I think that's where so many people, me included, went so far wrong: We had the data that told us that things were bad and headed for worse (I'm referring to the early months of the recession), but didn't accept it. Instead, we favored our preconceived opinions over the actual data.
The same thing is going on now with the "expansion deniers" that went on before with me and my other "recession deniers." Looking only at the data and ignoring the spin, the recession trough was July at the latest and may even have been earlier.
I forgot about that word! I often wish I had more data, or data collected a slightly different way, or data that was prepared with fewer obfuscations. So perhaps the data isn't just enough, but it is just what it is, and endless fights over the rigour behind its collection distracts from any available underlying message.
The message with this ISM data: the month of September was a happier one for many executives compared to the ones preceding it, and they feel their companies were in a position to expand, even while shrinking employment.
The message with October's ISM data will be: executives are as human in their predictions as the rest of us mere mortals.
Looking only at the data and ignoring the spin, the recession trough was July at the latest and may even have been earlier.
I won't argue with you there. For all I know we're in a year long expansionary phase.
But as I examine the fundamental shifts in the operation of our economy over the past 12-18 months, I can't be overly positive about the long-term health of the western world. We've sacrificed the future for the present, and although that future may be months or years off, it is now inevitable and greatly concerning.
noob goldberg,
Actually it says everything was pretty flat, with a huge overhang of inventory, and then expectations of future demand are huger
Without the expectation of recovery (chicken meet egg), it's decidedly negative. Inventory sentiment has been a worthless indicator since credit began contracting.
I'm expecting a positive 3rd quarter, but less than most forecasts, and then a Q4 far enough below expectations that we enter into a second generation of layoffs
sporkfed,
Tax data has stabilized at -15 to -25%. Applies to many countries, states, and local governments.
The problem is that budgets aren't balanced yet, and if they are balanced by cuts that will hurt revenues again. More or less we are unsustainably stabilized.
I'm expecting a positive 3rd quarter, but less than most forecasts, and then a Q4 far enough below expectations that we enter into a second generation of layoffs
Of that analysis I'll agree with you. Q4 could be quite ugly.
Actually it says everything was pretty flat, with a huge overhang of inventory, and then expectations of future demand are huger
Well I don't even know what non-manufacturing inventory means for most of those sectors, so I tend to put less weight in it.
noob goldberg,
Non-manufacturing inventory.. they do sell goods. Canned fruit, houses, iron ore...
so inventory sentiment would just be a statement of belief that demand will be higher than today's supplies meet
so inventory sentiment would just be a statement of belief that demand will be higher than today's supplies meet
Fair enough, I just saw the following sectors where it's not intuitively obvious: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Information; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; Educational Services; and Transportation & Warehousing.
Nemo.
Omen
Remind me - is this an opinion survey?
. . . respondents' comments vary by industry and remain mixed about business conditions and the overall economy.
Business conditions remain mixed?
Hoocoodanode?
Price index dropping like a rock ... sounds like the service sector is roaring, no?
These guys should be ashamed to "produce" this report. What a joke.
Many have stopped paying mortgages thereby freeing up purchasing power.
The underLYING trend remains - we're in decline. The ponzi debt anchor is still firmly attached to our eCONomy. Actually, the debt anchor has gotten heavier.
Am dying to know which sectors are improving....
Gift memberships to the hemlock Society tripled in the last quarter,good news for some....
The only strong thing in the report is inventory sentiment which is that it is much too high. Which bodes extremely poorly for anyone that believes in production being bolstered with an inventory restocking fueling end demand (or vice versa, it's circular)
Backlog of orders +10.5 to 51.5, Prices -14.3 to 48.8, New Export Orders -5.5 to 48.5, Inventory Sentiment -5.5 to 62
The five industries reporting an increase in order backlogs in September are:
Construction; Accommodation & Food Services; Finance & Insurance; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Wholesale Trade.
The three industries reporting lower backlog of orders in September are:
Mining; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Transportation & Warehousing.
Somewhat
Re: "Something similar to these requirements will probably be enacted internationally ..."
Cept in Merica...
The Bair that roared @ Lassie's master...
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
‘Too Big to Fail’ Must End For All, FDIC Chief Says - DealBook Blog - NYTimes.com
Another mid night express run ( no punt intended )...All aboard!!!
*BREAKING
AmEx president Kelly to leave next year*
They lose money on every sale, but they make it up in volume.
Burning Madolf wrote:
The report is what it is. It's the interpretation by media and others that usually skews it.
I have no problems with the ISM itself. I was actually thinking of getting a CPSM designation at one point. Maybe still will.
What I find curious is this
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing should absolutely not be reporting their inventories are too low.
As for Inventories in general:
Notice the doubling of respondents reporting inventories are too high, hardly a comfort that 2% more said they were too low because of Real Estate
Higher / Same / Lower / Index
Sep 2009 20 55 25 47.5
Aug 2009 9 68 23 43.0
Jul 2009 18 58 24 47.0
Jun 2009 14 62 24 45.0
May 2009 17 60 23 47.0
Apr 2009 12 62 26 43.0
Mar 2009 9 62 29 40.0
Feb 2009 9 60 31 39.0
Jan 2009 16 51 33 41.5
Dec 2008 22 54 24 49.0
Nov 2008 19 54 27 46.0
Oct 2008 21 54 25 48.0
Sep 2008 20 51 29 45.5
Aug 2008 20 67 13 53.5
Jul 2008 22 65 13 54.5
note: growing inventories is a boost to the ISM index, I'm just reading between the lines to project into the future
Our company updated their internal server over the weekend, including email and shared files.
,rad noob
How's the political beat going up over in Gulag Hockeypelago?
Here's something I've been contemplating.
If Bernanke had been at the helm during 1929 and had the luxury of a fiat money system, he no-doubt would have bailed out the financial fraud and ponzi debt at the expense of the prudent as he is doing today.
But would our country be better off today?
Real estate....low inventories....BWAHAHAHAHA!!!!
Really? You have no problem with any of their numbers?
I got a similar "WTF?" report in my inbox this morning:
Comerica Bank’s California Economic Activity Index
"DALLAS/October 5, 2009 – Comerica Bank’s California Economic Activity Index rose one point in August to a level of 101. August’s reading is up 10 points, or 11 percent, cumulatively from the Index’s cyclical low of 91 reached in March. August marks the fifth consecutive monthly increase in the Index."
...
"These indicators reflect activity in the manufacturing, tourism, travel and trade sectors, as well as job growth and consumer outlays. The Index levels represent a 3-month moving average, used to smooth monthly volatility."
Computer blips didn't signify wealth in 1929, and it wasn't until FDR got in office in 1933, did the printing presses really get going, after the bank holiday. There was money in every bank, and thus began the public trusting them with their lucre again.
I'm puzzled, but not laughing, at RE inventory numbers. Excepting for the moment any idea of spin, what are they saying and why?
This tepid ISM report should be good for a nice 4 or 5% bump in the market over the next few days. Not much economic news happening this week.
Burning Madolf
I have no qualms with ISM surveys. I do object to how they are interpreted on occasion though
Pravda becomes us.
Found Mish's latest post to be interesting - quality of data (or manipulation of data) appears to be affecting many of these reports: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: BLS Owner's Equivalent Rent Numbers From Twilight Zone
Seems Wall Street liked the numbers. They are so trusting LOL.
Totally O/T
I called Directv today with the intention of cancelling their service and switching to cable. They persuaded me to stay with
a 25 dollar a month reduction and a one time $350 credit. Deflationary in this instance.
sporkfed wrote:
Queue Obligatory: Deflation in what you want...
Burning Madolf wrote:
Do I have any problem with believing that executives at various companies had a slightly more optimistic view in the month of September? Not at all.
It was a pretty
-filled month, seeing as all that positive July and August data (anecdotal and official) kept rolling in. I think those executives will be proven overly-optimistic, but don't shoot the messenger.
I've been thinking of doing the same with DISH network. Did they make you commit to a new long-term contract. I think this is a real example of deflationary pressure.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Sorry, not rad
I got interrupted halfway through composing the message and accidentally hit submit. I'm getting nothing done today, seeing as I'm trying to clean up email, file, and server errors that prevent me from doing anything. At least my internet is working while I wait for the IT guy to get here.
I haven't heard anything interesting with regard to politics over the past few days, but I'm sure something will pop up soon. It's been a little too quiet lately, and nature abhors a news vacuum.
RE showed a contraction across the board except for increasing inventories, a rise in the use of imports (whatever that translates to), and inventory sentiment. I guess you could interpret inventory sentiment as an opinion that too many homes are being held off the market, that price is being put before volume -- at least relative to the number of realtors who aren't getting enough work to stay in business (employment contracted)
Sure is funny seeing a treasury auction during the Chinese holiday.
National Day and Mid-Autumn: October 1st (Tue) – 8th (Thu).
Should be interesting....
No. I have been a long time customer who pays on time. My bill was $ 81 a month. No premium channels or movies.
I think they are more concerned with revenue than pricing power now.
curious wrote:
Oddly enough, my better half and I have been working on this for the past few months. Around July we got a bill for $185 for internet, tv, and landline with longdistance, and we decided enough was enough. We're aiming to get all of that, plus a new cellphone, for under $120.
noob - both ISM reports are pretty much worthless. The organization & the classes it offers for certs are worthwhile in most cases but the survey itself is silly.
I already hit up Directv once for like $300, maybe i'll go back to the well again...
For anybody who has DSL with ATT you don't have to have a residential service anymore. You do have to have a phone line.
My monthly costs for DSL is $14 . Also, if you are a Fed.Gov employee ATT will give you 25% off of your cell phone plan, including
the Iphone w/data.
"I already hit up Directv once for like $300, maybe i'll go back to the well again..."
I wonder if there is any way to do that with the state of California...
Some minor good news this morning:
Joseph Nacchio will get to serve the six years he started on April 14th:
High court refuses to hear insider trading appeal - Yahoo! Finance
Anyone who owned QWST in the early part of the decade is
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
I recently dropped down a tier - no premium channels. They thanked me by giving me 3 months free of Showtime - which I never watch anyway. I guess I should threaten to leave and see if I can get the same $300 credit.
.....I hit up DirecTV for over $1000...........................I threw their dish off the roof over a year ago and canceled the service.
Here's a shocker:
U.S. firms oppose rules to curb short selling
| Reuters
I'm off work today and my plan is to try and strike better deals. My next stop is my insurance agent. I don't think
he be as easy.
Here's a shocker:
Stopped reading after the first line.
.
Edit: But it is a clear sign that the next leg down is starting up. If GS is positioning itself to short companies, then "This baby is going down!"
Skyin' 'em now....
The MSM spin on how good this report really is:
NEW YORK (AP) -- The U.S. service sector grew in September for the first time in 13 months, an encouraging sign for the fledgling economic recovery although jobs remain scarce.
The Institute for Supply Management said its service index hit 50.9 last month, up from 48.4 in August. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had expected a reading of 50, the dividing line between growth and contraction.
The index, which tracks more than 80 percent of the country's economic activity, including hospitals, retailers, financial services companies and truckers, hadn't grown since August 2008.
No problem with things like this (.8% increase in their employment index)?:
"The industries reporting an increase in employment in September are: Health Care & Social Assistance; Management of Companies & Support Services; and Educational Services. The industries reporting a reduction in employment in September — listed in order — are: Accommodation & Food Services; Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Utilities; Public Administration; Information; Wholesale Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Retail Trade; Finance & Insurance; and Real Estate, Rental & Leasing."
THomas Payne warned of the "artful misrepresentations of interested men".
Payne's warning fully supports the argument that Bernanke, Paulson, Geithner, Summers. et al should NOT be the ones determining how we extricate our economy from this cess pool of financial fraud.
How can we trust that the "usual suspects" are putting the system ahead of papering over their own failings?
Recuse. Why don't CONflict of interest rules apply here? Way to CONvenient.
oh well.
over again for now. resume launch positions.
It's a diffusion index. It's not tracking employment, it's tracking whether certain sectors are hiring more, the same, or less than they were doing so before.
44.3 was the September employment number for non-manufacturing ism. That means employment is contracting (anything less than 50) broadly (without speaking to the depth of the cuts)
FYI--With my homeowner's ins. policy, Travelers was thoughtful enough to send my renewal statement with an automatic coverage increase of 5.5% because of the "increased" cost of rebuilding my house. I challenged their numbers and ended up with a yearly premium of $100 less than their original request (~$20 cheaper than last year's coverage). Make sure you ask to see the data they use for calculating your premium.
dryfly wrote:
I personally think that most surveys are silly, so you won't find me disagreeing. Perhaps that's what burning madoff was getting at earlier; if so, I owe him/her an apology as I should have prefaced by saying I don't put much trust in the survey itself. I was defending ISM only by saying that the survey does what they say it does, and that most of the problems come from media spin. I also don't put much stock in the Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
However, now that you've all made me do more than a cursory examination of this survey, I did note that I couldn't find a response rate written anywhere on this report. I really don't trust any survey where the response rate isn't expressly communicated to readers. Especially at the level of implied precision that they're using.
Thanks for the information. I may have to switch companies to get a better rate. It's not as competitive as I would like in this area.
noob goldberg said: "The report is what it is. It's the interpretation by media and others that usually skews it..."
Exactly. Treat all the data that way (employment, industrial production, real income, home sales, etc., etc.) , i.e., just look at it and see what it says, and you'll get a clear picture of what's happening and what's most likely to happen next.
Sebastian
Just finished watching some old cartoons, (1930s) with my sons. It is amazing how the see no evil/hear no evil/speak no evil theme was so prevalent. (oh I just looked it up and found out there is a fourth monkey too, I like it when I learn something new) Anyway, is it time to replace our majestic eagle with those three monkeys? I sure smell the symbolism... Mr. Speak no evil for the fed. Mr. See no evil for the Treasury. Mr. Hear no evil for the SEC. Now if we adopted the forth monkey of do no evil...guess we could give that one to the FDIC. Hey I like this.
Quick note of my Dish history...I will never do business with dish network again. Back when I was hopelessly naive (I know, I know.still am)... I signed up for automatic billing...and for six months in a roll, they doubled billed me. I caught it the first time it happened, but it took me six months to get them to acknowledge and fix the problem. Here's the kicker...they didn't refund my money, but gave me a credit...so basically I was supposed to have six months free. After my fifth free month...someone decided this must have been a mistake, and they charged me for six months all at once and emptied out my checking account. I was so lucky at the time I received a pretty hefty bonus, and I didn't have any checks bounce. I had turned off automatic payments by the way...so they did this without premission. It took me another three months to solve this problem. I decided in the course to cancel service, and I wanted the money in a refund not a service credit. This was apparently a problem...and delayed the resolution of my case even further. Not once did Dish stand up and take responsibility for this...it was always a weird mystery or computer glitch. Wasn't their fault. I get tickled when I hear personalities like Dave Ramsey extol the virtues of auto-billing as a means for easy budget management. In my very short history of auto-billing, the satellite, electricity company, telephone, and a credit card...all screwed me. Just my bad luck I guess.
AOL did the same thing to me many years ago. It took a threat of going to my state's Attorney General to get a refund.
I agree, if you autobill you gotta watch your statements like a hawk.
"I signed up for automatic billing..."
..........seems like that is an invitation to steal - whether by THAT company or the underpaid mole who forwards thousands of accounts data to some unknown for a couple grand in cash..................
I know.
I just hate these BS reports that openly allow the MSM to take one point (in this case the old "anything above 50") and produce headlines like this Bloomberg one: U.S. Service Industries Expand for First Time in a Year as Recovery Widens.
If they actually read the report and reported on it, instead of using the headline number and comments from analysts, then ......
Bronte Capital with the read of the day
Talking about Spanish banking
Sebastian wrote:
The data must be put against changes in market fundamentals, of course. Simply drawing a trend-line without looking at changes in the underlying environment that could have skewed those results is misleading also.
I like the concept Bair is using here:
Burning Madolf
The index is negative if you strip out inventory sentiment which is now demonstrably a defunct indicator
As for the media, they have the power to sucker some people in but the situation at hand is far beyond anything like perception defining the reality
I view it as an opportunity to practice patience
noob goldberg said: "...The data must be put against changes in market fundamentals, of course."
I would argue that the data are the fundamentals, but I like arguing.
S.
Where are you getting parts for your Wright Model B ?
The world’s largest economy shrank the least in more than a year in the second quarter, contracting at a 0.7 percent annual rate, compared with 6.4 percent in the first.
Geithner Note Buoyed by Less Bills as Inflation Slows (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
~many interesting statistics in this article
"Omen"
Nomen est
I mean, did many people not get rich off of house prices? Were people not paying prices 100% above those 4 years earlier?
Stupid stuff does happen, and it's important to consider to what degree and what length is something sustainable. If you just ignore the stupidity, you miss out on a lot of humanity
Poor baby, he wanted $10M, but high auction bid was only $6M, so he rejected it.
The master bedroom suite alone is 3,200 square feet, a bit smaller than the 10-car, climate-controlled garage, which measures 4,000 square feet. The driveway is long enough for a firetruck to turn around, and there's a wine storage enclave with room for 1,400 bottles.
The 16,500-square-foot hilltop house -- in the community that was the setting for "The Real Housewives of Orange County" television show -- is just one of dozens of unsold mega-mansions across Southern California conceived during the real estate bubble, when builders waged an ill-timed arms race to ever-increasing extravagance.
Too many palatial homes, too few princely buyers - Los Angeles Times
sporkfed cleverly quipped: "Where are you getting parts for your Wright Model B ?"
Hey, if I'd been paying attention to the data instead of misguidedly clinging to the Wright B Model...your "joke" wouldn't be "funny.":)
S.
Conde Nast just closed three more magazines, including Gourmet, published since 1940. Last year they shuttered Portfolio and Domino magazines. All at behest of McKinsey consulting, who recced a 25% cut...ad revenues have been plummeting, so a lot more writers, editors and photogs are now out of work.
Condé Nast to Close Gourmet, Cookie and Modern Bride - Media Decoder Blog - NYTimes.com
Sebastian wrote:
Oh I know, Sebastian, I've been reading this blog for at least a year and a half
I'm glad you're back, as I did appreciate your contributions, even if I rarely commented on the boards at that time.
I completely agree with you that data is data; it's nothing more or nothing less. Sometimes we can argue about how it's collected, or the manipulations it undergoes, but in the end it is what it is.
However, taking raw data and using it for predictive purposes requires the overlay of a set of assumptions, whether or not the predictor realizes it. And we can argue about assumptions forever...
Located in the See-Me Valley
It's all good. Besides, those parts are probably made in China now.
I'm down to one magazine I pay for (New Yorker) and one I don't pay for, but they won't stop sending. (Esquire)
you might say data is lagom even
.
Sebastian,
I will counter with data does reflect fundamentals, but the trick is understanding what those fundamentals are.
Think of it in the way you measure the temperature of a chemical reaction. Even if you know what that chemical reaction is, you need to know from where is the temperature measured and the context provided by the exogenous environment -- both of which may change over time irrespective of what happens in the reaction
Just gotta say, Real Housewives has to be one of the stupidest ideas ever. Saw the commercials, never watched the show.
private equity firms used highly leveraged debt
to buy a name brand firm
plunge that company into debt
pay the private equity partners huge sums for ruining, i mean running the company
meanwhile wall street got big bucks for securitizing the deal
and then before the company seemed too ravaged and damaged
the company is sold to another private equity firm
with more debt, fees paid to wall street and another round of looting
heres the original article
Profits for Buyout Firms As Company Debt Soared - NY Times
hat tip yves smith at naked capitalism where i saw the article commented upon
somehow, somebody has to find a way to blame this on immigrants or unions
Hows bout some bluegrass theme tunes?
YouTube -
reminds me of niel bush and silverado bank back in the 80s
I flipped by that show a month or two ago, one of the dads dressed up a bunch of the daughters like whores to peddle a red bull ripoff. I think unemployment led to that 'venture capital' foray. That is the difference between the new rich, and the real rich
noob goldberg said: "...However, taking raw data and using it for predictive purposes requires the overlay of a set of assumptions, whether or not the predictor realizes it."
JMO, but I think that's where so many people, me included, went so far wrong: We had the data that told us that things were bad and headed for worse (I'm referring to the early months of the recession), but didn't accept it. Instead, we favored our preconceived opinions over the actual data.
The same thing is going on now with the "expansion deniers" that went on before with me and my other "recession deniers." Looking only at the data and ignoring the spin, the recession trough was July at the latest and may even have been earlier.
Sebastian
Sebastian
But I'm right
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
I forgot about that word! I often wish I had more data, or data collected a slightly different way, or data that was prepared with fewer obfuscations. So perhaps the data isn't just enough, but it is just what it is, and endless fights over the rigour behind its collection distracts from any available underlying message.
The message with this ISM data: the month of September was a happier one for many executives compared to the ones preceding it, and they feel their companies were in a position to expand, even while shrinking employment.
The message with October's ISM data will be: executives are as human in their predictions as the rest of us mere mortals.
Sebastian wrote:
I won't argue with you there. For all I know we're in a year long expansionary phase.
But as I examine the fundamental shifts in the operation of our economy over the past 12-18 months, I can't be overly positive about the long-term health of the western world. We've sacrificed the future for the present, and although that future may be months or years off, it is now inevitable and greatly concerning.
noob goldberg,
Actually it says everything was pretty flat, with a huge overhang of inventory, and then expectations of future demand are huger
Without the expectation of recovery (chicken meet egg), it's decidedly negative. Inventory sentiment has been a worthless indicator since credit began contracting.
I'm expecting a positive 3rd quarter, but less than most forecasts, and then a Q4 far enough below expectations that we enter into a second generation of layoffs
The data that is most reliable to me is the tax collection data. Until I see stabilization I'm not ready to call a recovery.
sporkfed,
Tax data has stabilized at -15 to -25%. Applies to many countries, states, and local governments.
The problem is that budgets aren't balanced yet, and if they are balanced by cuts that will hurt revenues again. More or less we are unsustainably stabilized.
I mean over a longer time span. In my state another shoe is getting ready drop and it won't be pretty.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Of that analysis I'll agree with you. Q4 could be quite ugly.
Well I don't even know what non-manufacturing inventory means for most of those sectors, so I tend to put less weight in it.
noob goldberg,
Non-manufacturing inventory.. they do sell goods. Canned fruit, houses, iron ore...
so inventory sentiment would just be a statement of belief that demand will be higher than today's supplies meet
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Fair enough, I just saw the following sectors where it's not intuitively obvious: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Accommodation & Food Services; Public Administration; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Information; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; Educational Services; and Transportation & Warehousing.