techy246 (profile) wrote on Sun, 10/4/2009 - 12:02 pm
anyone else care to comment about my reflation scenarios? (i have been looking for some answers since one year...only Ben seems to care about my question
I'm in the whipsaw camp: serious deflation (we have a debt money system; the banks create the debt money; the debts have gone bad; the Fed cannot create reserves fast enough to offset the crystalization of the bad debts), then cost push inflation (destruction of supply systems due to financial woes leading to supply tightness or shortages and higher explicit prices or implicit prices which include opportunity costs of waiting or doing without).
Just like lending on homes currently, new car loans are being gone over with a fine-tooth comb, despite the urgency of dealers to make sales (except for sales aberrations like C4C) and it shows in the sales numbers, which are like a frozen waterfall, thawing out in our winter of financial discontent, ready for the plunge pool below.
Right now I am essentially unconcerned with the banks- a lot of failure is built in.
What I am waiting for is the resurrection of the postal savings bank to fund the mortgage GSEs. I imagine how fast a $250k guaranteed account paying 3.5% would be funded. So, put a floor under the savings returns, gut the banks, and cheaply fund the residential mortgage market. Then do an rtc for commercial and destroy the rest of the stupid lenders, and pay savers a real return again.
Mortgages would require 20% down, and only starter homes would be FHA eligible.
But this would require killing off a couple thousand banks, but then we killed off how many S&Ls?
Banking is the new dead part of the economy- I had a laugh reading the Week with the comment about paying engineers more, and bankers less- banking is essentially dead- and will be dead for a very long time.
The only innovation will be a return to the 1930s style destruction of the equity/banking interface.
Ma and Pa Kettle won't risk their life savings for Jamie Dimon's suits and hedge funds.
Ma and Pa Kettle won't risk their life savings for Jamie Dimon's suits and hedge funds.
First Ma and Pa need to break the Wall Street's iron grip on Washington, then they will get to decide what to do with their life savings (measured in constant dollars).
For now Jamie Dimon makes these decisions for Ma and Pa.
"Mortgages would require 20% down, and only starter homes would be FHA eligible"
Doesn't the second part of that negate the first part? I agree that it might make some sense to allow less than 20% down mortgages in a small segment of the housing market (say less than 10% of all sales), but Congress can't seem to resist going too far. It's that camel's nose thing.
However, I left Moscow the day the first Gulf War started, had to bribe an Aeroflot clerk to get on the plane to Frankfurt, had to enter Germany for a few minutes to reach the international terminal, had to ignore a blustering German cop to pick up my ticket to Dulles. Fear was a great pick-me-up.
And AllenM, why does your proposal for reforming bank lending focus on making money available for mortgages? Didn't we learn that favoring lending against RE was unwise? Shouldn't more money be loaned for productive enterprise, and less for RE? Shouldn't any incentives support that re-direction, not fight it?
I know the gangs pretty much run rampant in Regina, and they can't keep up financially like us by building ever more prisons in which to hold their populace and profit by, of which they barely incarcerate them compared to us, as it turns out.
Would people PLEASE stop conflatiing TARP with the Stim. NO, TARP money did not go to Oxnard's water system, or anybody's runways etc etc. TARP went mostly into prefered stock investments of the banks, with a little bit left over for PPIP stuff. We got a bad deal on the terms of the prefered stock investments because Hank was not negotiating on behalf of the taxpayers, but wanted to funnel money to his buds. However, some of the TARP has already been repaid, at a profit to the govt (insufficent for the risk we took, but still a positive return). Of course the worst and riskiest of the investments (i.e C, FNM, FRE, AIG) have not paid back, only the ones that were in rel good shape, ie JPM, GS.
Now the Stim might have paid for some of those projects that people have talked about, but most of what has been spent so far has been on pain releivers, like extended UE benie, subsidized Cobra, and help to S&L gov'ts. Some infrastructure projects have been started, seeing a lot of road work around here in Dayton, but most of that stuff is still in the pipeline.
or everyone here has given up on any possibility that maybe there will be orderly deleveraging (ala japanese style)?
no wonder economics is called as dismal science...everyone with any knowledge have come to accept doom-gloom, while the masses are busy with the football season
Thousands of banks have "failed." It's 98 that have been seized. I used to get ticked at the abuse of common language but now I expect it. Apparently you aren't a failure until the FDIC says you are. FDICspeak.
Once again, Patientrenter, you needlessly confuse commercial banking and residential lending.
The savings and loan system worked for decades until we purposely broke it.
Less money through what I suggest will be available for residential- it will be funded S&L style through tight loans and low returns.
What you mistake is the safe housing system for the entire lending system- big banks will once again make loans instead of funding PE syndicates of their buds to lose money fast.
As for lending for productive enterprise, well, if that productive enterprise materializes, then the money will be found AT A HIGHER RATE OF RETURN, COMMENSURATE WITH THE RISK!!!
Hate to caps lock you, but you can't have your cake and eat it too- so face the facts that the banking system WILL be remade, and you won't like the outcome, unless you think 3.5% is stellar for a return.
many posters here are addicted to doom, so you're getting germs of hard truth amidst a torrent of sentiments that are just expressions of an emotional need to see Armageddon coming.
In reality, the pressures we see now are likely to be released across a variety of channels - some inflation, some further drops in real asset values, some postponement of full retirement dates, some higher taxes, some more debt defaults, some higher unemployment (temporarily)...... But we'll live mostly the same as we do now, and we'll adapt to the differences.
Those slacker Canadians can only find 116 per 100k of their population to stick in the hoosegow, while we can find 760 per 100k. They obviously aren't looking hard enough...
There is private investment money available now for business.
I like that better than bank loans - banks just want to bleed you at zero risk, at least PE has some skin in the game with you.
You mistake the insanity of a bubble that was funded outta reality by wall street- what happens now is that you can safely fund houses again, because, guess what, nobody in their right mind is going to buy a house for appreciation right now.
Further, you forget that it wasn't favored lending, as much as stupid lending- you get a bubble with nothing down, low interest for five years, refi madness.
How does this square with a 20% down owner occupied stable 30 year loan?
Not even in the same reality.
What is your agenda? Because you seem to be purposely obfuscating what I say. Either that, or you are as obtuse as BdL.
Don't mess with the Mounties - at last that was the impression I had when I was in Canada 30 years ago. They seemed to have their own idiosyncratic way of resolving issues, permanently.
So can we view California's court mandated release of 40,000 prisoners (equal to a reduction of the incarceration rate of 111/100k of population) the start of the prison bubble bursting?
Last time I was up over, a Sikh-Canadian (festooned with colorful headgear and a beard that practically screamed terrorist) was manning the X-Ray machine at the airport in Calgary. He'd get shot after working for 15 minutes doing the same thing in LAX, wearing that get-up...
I agree, AllenM, that enforcing a strict 20% down minimum would do more for the future health of home financing than dozens of more complicated alternatives.
Where I am going is that I think we should no longer favor lending against homes. We've provided mortgage interest tax incentives, capital gain incentives, government interest rate subsidies, government loan guarantees, and a myriad of other measures that favor housing investment. Where has it all gotten us? We've just increased the price of homes, and made preparing financially for retirement into a lottery. People living in Ohio lost the lottery, and people living in Corona del Mar won. In the meanwhile, we drove too many people into the FIRE sector of our economy, and too few into productive enterprises. Productive enterprises need financing, and savings will either go there, or into more housing investment. Why grease the wheels for more housing investment?
So I applaud your proposal to enforce 20% down payment minimums, although I didn't see any description of the down payments you were proposing for FHA loans. But I wonder why we continue to make it easier for savings to be invested in housing instead of future production of tradeable goods and services, or those that can substitute for imports.
Rebates and tax cuts for the lower 40% of the workers. When 1% of the country's taxpayers own 50% of its wealth (as they do), they are a fat pig waiting to be harvested. Raise taxes on the upper 10% of earners, and provide tax cuts and payments to those who have no had a pay increase in 10 years - including cash payments for those who pay no taxes.
JimPortlandOR;
"Rebates and tax cuts for the lower 40% of the workers."
The lower 40% already pay no income tax and get refundable tax credits. The only way to raise more tax money is to tax the middle class. There isn't enough money in the top 10% beyond what is already being taken. The middle class is where the big money is.
People will always invest in housing- the FHA should be 5 to 10% depending on the loan and qualifications.
Reversing all of the subsidies is implicit in the discussion above- but by simply putting them into a targeted low return system. In other words, you buy a house to live in, you get reasonable costs of money. You buy a house to rent or speculate, you pay whatever the market demands.
Same for savers- you want a government guarantee- you take a low rate of return. Right now the rate of return is absurd.
People in Ohio have always lost the lottery compared to Corona Del Mar- that becomes apparent every November once it snows.
As for the rest of making retirement planning into a lottery- well, what the frick is a 401k? It sure isn't a pension.
Further, pensions have never had an inflation component, allowing companies to fund the current obligations. But the real crime is the creation of the debt ridden society that doesn't reward small savers- instead totally punishes them.
Forcing people into a casino they are not prepared for has led to this huge disaster- now you, who have capital, are being targeted to help pay for the boomer trainwreck. Well, here is the bill.
well, actually the upper 5% is a obese enough target. Wealth is incredibly concentrated in the US now. Obama wanted to return to upper marginal limit of 39% as it was in Reagan's time. That is too low. Above $250K per person ($500K per couple) is the right dividing line. That will catch all the greedy pigs that force the piglets into near stagnation and borderline starvation. The question is how to get the money while preventing them from burying their money under some of the many available tax havens. Reform and Increase - not extend and pretend.
CR, I'd like to see this chart re-ordered by date, so that we can see whether the projected losses, and percentage losses, are getting larger or smaller as weeks go by.
Lending for real estate was fueled by the need for an income stream on Wall Street by securitizing the mortgages. The relaxing of lending standards went hand in hand with low interest rates(free money) from the FED, reduced regulator oversight, legislation supporting a home owner society, and the need to inflate another bubble to recover from the tech bubble collapse.
This is old and accepted conventional wisdom here at CR. I thought.
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"emotional need to see Armageddon coming."
I have really searched my feelings about the current crisis to see if this is true. The emotion that surfaces is anger at the continued fraud and corruption and the realization that "we the people" lost our identity as Americans when we were re-branded as consumers. Finding a new identity now that debt load trumps buying power is the current struggle. I'm not sure it will be Armageddon but I am sure this isn't a bump in the road with smooth sailing ahead.
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NFL Sunday! Tracking the attendance numbers and merchandise sales of professional sports is a huge indicator of how tough things are out in consumer land.
There isn't enough money in the top 10% beyond what is already being taken.
hahahahahaha
I'm thinking that most here realize how ridiculous your statement is. It it widely accepted that the upper few percent of taxpayers own half to 2/3rds of the wealth. And they don't pay even a major part of their 'raw' obligation because they take refuge in tax shelters that remove that income from taxation.
As I said, in many years we are in the very bottom of the top 10%.
I am not complaining at all. But we don't have tons of money to
throw down a black hole, which is the gov't. We live nicely and
our house is paid off. We never buy "aspirational Luxury" (what bs).
The hub is still driving his Saturn, and apparently the dealer will
stay open until his last one is sold, and presumably will have
parts for a while and will sell used cars until he gets another
franchise.
The point is that you need a LOT of money in order to have money
and live rich both.
"It it widely accepted that the upper few percent of taxpayers own half to 2/3rds of the wealth."
You are confusing wealth with income.
Take a look at what has happened in California. The high variability of income for the top 5% swings the state from feast to famine on a regular basis. Most agree that over-reliance on high income tax rates does not work.
0% for food, utilties, rental housing, meds
5% for clothes, furniture, cable TV
10% for computers, TVs, movies
20% for yahts, vacation homes, privte jets
Key question, what is the revenue maximizing top marginal tax rate. It is not 100%, or even 90%, so putting it up that high would be self defeating. It is also clearly higher than the current 35%. Intuitively, it seems like 50% is about the right number, but I have never seen an emperical study of this.
Any aspiring Econ phD students out there looking for a thesis topic, this would be a great one.
Also, while tax rates get most of the attention, attachment points are of equal importance. Big difference between a 35% tax rate that kicks in at $100K than one that kicks in at $250K. Would love to see a raising of the attachement points for the low brackets, and a lowering at the higher ones. Raising the attachement points aty the low end would help all about equally (except those who are in the zero bracket), lowering the high end would hit the rich and near rich. Depending on the amount of the adjustment some of the near rich (or just doing ok) might break even on the deal.
They saw this coming and they failed to regulate and failed to take steps to enforce the law in regard to accounting related to reserves; this is criminal and yet another sign of a systemic economic failure in America -- land of fantasy accounting and bullshit!
INDIANAPOLIS - WellPoint Inc., the largest U.S. insurer, dismissed a "small number" of workers last week and announced cuts to employee health benefits Friday, in its latest attempt to deal with the recession's toll on enrollment.
If they didn't cut the employees health benefits in a health insurance company, their executives couldn't get their multi-million salaries and bonuses. Poor babies...
//// lost our identity as Americans when we were re-branded as consumers. Finding a new identity now that debt load trumps buying power is the current struggle /////
wow, that is the answer. now I need to decide what my choice is.
You are so right, for a very long time we have been seen, and seen ourselves, as consumers. We bragged about and flashed our consumerism for the world to see, the world tried to keep up.
Once we change the preception we hold for ourselves, we will change a great many things. But we sure have allot of perceptions to change, debt, climate, value of family & friends, so much. Sorry, am rambling here.
Maybe DOJ should also be charged with Gross negligence and while at it, FASB, Treasury, FRB, Congress .... the whole barrel of and rotten apples. We need a new system and obviously the Obama people are as corrupt as the Bush people and no one has any plans to nationalize the failing bank system -- because the jobless recovery is rocketing America back to ... ahhh, hmmm, ok, the stocj market is up like 60% in about the last 6 months, but then that gets back to fantasy bullshit and zero earnings growth, so we have a land of speculation with a broken banking system and the powers to be think all is well..... :puke:
Take a look at what has happened in California. The high variability of income for the top 5% swings the state from feast to famine on a regular basis. Most agree that over-reliance on high income tax rates does not work.
They just need to match spending to multi-year average revenues to solve the problem. Save the revenues in excess of average during good years; spend down the prior savings during revenue lean years.
There: Cali's budget problems solved.
Enforcement: make the members of the legislature personally liable for any deficit.
We are going to re-define what we are now and what we will be after, and nobody said it's gonna be easy getting there, but the future waits for nobody.
In some circles, I still hear the hoary chestnut from bankers that "The government made us make those bad loans." Recently, and in some very old comments, dryfly has addressed this. But they're still talking that talk.
But, since I first started surfing intertubz to figure out what was going on (about 1.5 weeks before a dip in the S&P back in Feb 2007) I have also heard bankers, and correspondent bankers acting as intermediaries between the local tiny banks and the Fed, insist that at one time a bank caught strong reproach, or worse, particularly from the Fed, but from other regulators as well, if it had too much in Excess Reserves (read: any Excess Reserves) in its account at the Fed.
Can anybody clarify this for me?
It sounds like the Fed was forcing correspondent banks to purchase securities. I'd've killed anybody insisting I had to buy U.S. Treasuries in Spring of 2003.
how come you guys are allowed to talk about tax increases? i thought that was a swear word
i think 49% of tax for the top earners (say some one making 5 million a year).
and i would like to have 2% for the low earners...(they can claim proudly they pay tax).
nobody gets money from the gov more than the tax they paid.
but of course...healthcare will be free so that people dont die.
and food stamps to anyone going to die of starvation.
but before that minimum wages such that you can live happily even if you flip burgers ....and of course enough jobs so that anyone willing to work will get one.
LL
For example (just making these numbers up, dont have the actual ones handy, but the principal is the same.
Up to $30K, 0% rate
Above 30k, 5%
Above 40k 10%
Above 50k 15%
etc so someone earning $55k would pay (10K * .05) + (10K * .1) + (5K * .15) or $2250 or an effective rate of 4.09%. The 5%, 10% 15% are the tax rates, the $30K, $40K and $50 are the attachement points.
Now assume you increase each of those attachement points by $5k, so the same $55K income would owe ($10K *.05) + (10k *.10) or $1500 or an effective rate of 2.73%. At the same time say the rates and attachments looked like this looked like this:
Old
30K 5%
50K 10%
75K 20%
100K 25%
250K 35%
Without changing the 5%, 10% etc you could make things easier on the lower middle class by moving to a system that looked like this
New
40K 5%
60K 10%
80 K 20%
100k 25%
200K 35%
Same rates but different progressivity to the system
and i would like to have 2% for the low earners...(they can claim proudly they pay tax).
techy...damn shame I have to run right now, but you've struck one of my nerves.
I volunteer to prepare taxes for low-income tax filers and there is a world of difference in the attitude of those who have a "negative" income tax (refundable credits) and those who pay a positive tax.
Not so much a sense of entitlement by the former as a sense of ownership by the latter.
You may notice you don't see Republicans talking much about making the Bush tax cuts permanent any more. That was their big talking point during and just after the election.
A national sales tax of "20% for yachts, vacation homes, and private jets" would eliminate a lot of US jobs. Note that all of those products are labor intensive, made in the US and pay above average wages.
the Republicans have left the room. maybe even the planet
The libertarians haven't tho. The problem is big-government "capture". The political-type 2's (applied socialists, progressives, liberals, democrats - whatever) never project-ahead their big-government-ever-increasing-taxes concept to the next election when the political-type #1's (applied fascists, conservatives, neo-cons, republicans - whatever) win the government and use the bigness for THEIR buddies and ideology and against the PT #2's. The hunt for the weapons of mass delusion and the ever increasing Republican police-state fantasy is made possible BY the very big government - and taxes - supported by BOTH political-types 1 & 2.
they are 45% and if you add their sympathisers it is more than 50%.
80% of this country is christians....is there any surprise that 35% of them refuse to accept the constitution over the bible?
thank god...only 35% are delusional....i cant imagine the plight of a rational like me if 55% were writing the laws based on bible. and i was forced to go to church on sunday morning.
Libertarians: Question for you: do you believe in religion while making laws, if not you just got disowned by 45% of the population and you are branded as liberals. so stop dreaming and work such that we dont get raped year after years by lobbyists...while they fool the masses with non-issues.
Have any of you read the Republican or Democratic platforms? Platforms are documents created so insiders have something to fight over. Once their published they are forgotten and ignored.
Key question, what is the revenue maximizing top marginal tax rate. It is not 100%, or even 90%, so putting it up that high would be self defeating. It is also clearly higher than the current 35%. Intuitively, it seems like 50% is about the right number, but I have never seen an empirical study of this.
Any aspiring Econ PhD students out there looking for a thesis topic, this would be a great one.
This is not a hard question and there is plenty of data around to make it a sophomore topic, not a doctoral one.
Here is a couple of data points:
The first one is a cross-country comparison , which shows that even with the marginal tax rate as high as 59% (Denmark) or 56% (Sweden) one can have very advanced and dynamic economies. As a matter of fact, most advanced economies have their marginal tax rate at 45%+ (Austria, Australia, Japan, Germany, France, Canada, Israel, Italy, Netherlands). With its marginal tax rate of 35% US is closer to Iran, Pakistan, Indonesia, India. Only Finland and New Zealand are other respectable members of this part of the tax rate curve.
The second one looks at the marginal tax rate in the US over time and shows that periods of strong growth happened at higher or much higher levels than today, although these rates were applied at much higher income levels than today.
So from the economic standpoint the answer is pretty clear - the marginal tax rate has to go up to pay for the debt incurred over the past 10 years and what will be incurred over the next 2-3 years, and most of this increase has to be shouldered by people with income above $1 million.
However, taxes are not an economic but rather a political/philosophical issue in this country, which is debated fact-free, right along with the right to bear arms or sexual education to children.
It is always refreshing to see the European solution to the debt crisis; makes me glad I'm an American. Our politicians are only half crazy (OK maybe three-quarters.)
sorry I need comments on this thing too: Religions destroying the country:
BTW anyone who thinks conservative are only 20% be-aware...go look at this map: Election Center 2008 - Election Results & Politics News from CNN.com
they are 45% and if you add their sympathisers it is more than 50%.
80% of this country is christians....is there any surprise that 35% of them refuse to accept the constitution over the bible?
thank god...only 35% are delusional....i cant imagine the plight of a rational like me if 55% were writing the laws based on bible. and i was forced to go to church on sunday morning.
My way or the highway. I am right, you are going to hell. Everyone must believe as I do and practice as I do and think as I do. Those are fanatics, of any religion. That is the problem and was addressed in the Constituion.
Well, if I were forced to go to church, I would wear a black armband, take
a salacious novel, and sit with my back to the front.
Or, alternatively, I would listen intently to the sermon, and if a suitable
rhetorical question were asked, I'd answer it. they really wouldn't want
me there after a very short while.
MrM, would Denmark or Sweden increase or decrease tax revenues if they cut their top tax rates by 3%, that is the key question. 56% is reasonably close to my 50% WAG as the maximum point on the Laffer curve (which is both true and for the most part trivial, the way it is used by GOP types who always say lower the top rate, regardless of where it is). There are always 2 rates that will produce the same revenue, except for the max point, and generally it makes more sense to use the left hand one than the right hand point.
which means that the billing clerk making around $35k/year ...is actually costing $70k/year if you add all that stuff.
and i thought we were supposed to be business friendly...
oh well the capital owners and their managers own this country,....so i guess we will just stick with 15-20% capital gains tax....and maybe they will trickle down some on us.
Platforms are documents created so insiders have something to fight over.
Slight correction: Platforms are documents for the party dumbasses. The insiders ARE insiders because they only care about power. Each party has its nobility (the very smart amoral scum-bags that know EXACTLY what the party is really for) and the true-believer-dumbasses - with the two major (only) Merican parties each having 40-45% of the dumbass population.
would Denmark or Sweden increase or decrease tax revenues if they cut their top tax rates by 3%, that is the key question.
Dirk - I think the key question is what will happen to IRS revenues if the marginal tax rate in the US were to go to, say, 40%. The most likely answer is that the revenues will go up.
Nobody suggests going all the way to 50% in one step. That is a political non-starter.
Also, why do we care about maximizing the tax revenues for Denmark or Sweden?
There are always 2 rates that will produce the same revenue, except for the max point, and generally it makes more sense to use the left hand one than the right hand point.
Even though the Laffer curve is usually drawn symmetrically, I suspect there will be a steep drop after 60-70%. Besides, one has to have a really efficient government to prefer to be on the right hand of the Laffer maximum.
Yes techy, about double. You can also add in space rent, utilities, phone, paper, marketing and employee holiday gifts, etc. There are allot of costs to running even a very small business.
Re: Investors might keep closer tabs on bank risk if secured claims, such as repurchase agreements, were subject to losses, Bair said today.
“By totally protecting secured claims and many repo claims as nettable financial contracts, the current priority scheme may encourage greater fragility in the financial markets,” she said.
Bair acknowledged that such a move would have drawbacks, such as potentially making it harder or more expensive for banks to finance new lending.
“It could have a major impact on the cost of funding for companies subject to the resolution mechanism,” Bair said.
Imagine, hedge funds having skin in the game, how stupid is she ... SIFMA will not allow that!
Religion is only indirectly destroying the country. 50 years ago, when the peasants understood WHY they were voting Democratic and WHY they needed unions the two primary deities (the mean old-testament one and nice new-testament one) were both in the Democratic party. When the fascists were able to split the peasant's loyalties - using the fear of "THOSE PEOPLE" - the mean deity moved over to the fascist side with the nice deity staying with socialists - WHICH, of course, you'd except as the deity is picked by humans using the same criteria used to pick a politician.
Health care: i am not sure why nobody wants to address the real issues: expensive and prolonged medical , nursing and pharmacy education....hospitals and HMOs control the whole system such that everything remains expensive.
india is a very good example of private and public health system...alongwith some non profit hospitals.
reason: it costs less than $20-30k to become a doctor...only around 6 years of college education including residency(USA=9 years)...it is fully recognized here in usa.
A short while ago: He applied basic probability theory to show a high probability that the Iranian elections were fraudulent. (It turns out that humans are very poor random number generators.) Now he seems to have widened his target to a US polling firm.
The probability result is profound: It should be applied far and wide to economic stats to detect fraudulent reporting. (The IRS already uses such statistical methods.)
"People will always invest in housing.....but by simply putting them into a targeted low return system....Reversing all of the subsidies is implicit in the discussion above"
So, to be clear, your proposal is:
Remove the mortgage interest deduction
Remove the exemption for capital gains on homes
Remove the various (FNM, FRE...) loan repayment guarantees on home loans, except for FHA
Require a minimum down payment of 20% on home loans, except for FHA
Create a low-risk, low return, govt savings bank (like the Japanese postal savings bank) that sends all of its money into the housing market.
This sounds good, except that it favors sending investment dollars into housing versus productive enterprise. It's clear that what our economy needs now is less investment in housing, and more investment in productive enterprises that create tradeable goods and services that we export, or that substitute for imports.
"People in Ohio have always lost the lottery compared to Corona Del Mar- that becomes apparent every November once it snows."
We already know the quality of life upsides and downsides of geographical location. There are good blogs on this. I am referring to the financials of planning for retirement. Those who bought homes in Ohio spent money to have a place to live. Those who bought homes in Corona del Mar ended up winning a lottery prize paid for the people who will foot the bill for cleaning up this bubble - younger buyers and the next generation of taxpayers, and possible savers (if inflation is used as a way to lower debt).
"- the FHA should be 5 to 10% depending on the loan and qualifications."
If the FHA program could be kept within tight bounds, I'd agree. But, even though I've always lived in the most expensive parts of this country, I think it is economically inefficient and grossly unfair to subsidize people who choose to live in expensive areas versus less expensive areas. The FHA limits and eligibility absolutely should not be allowed to vary by geography.
After the greatest Ponzi scheme in the history of the capital markets, we’ve seen history’s greatest fiscal and monetary expansion, but it hasn’t worked. Debt levels of consumers and business exceed the capacity to repay.
"sorry I need comments on this thing too: Religions destroying the country:"
As if our forays into politics wasn't divisive enough for you? I noticed you're a new handle. Did the call for lurkers to become posters enliven you to join in the debate?
++++
MrM, good post on the tax rate comparison and where the taxes need to be drawn from.
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JP-Polls are slanted by the agenda of the polling firm? Really! Someone should call the BLS.
I read that after it was linked from Baseline Scenario. The two old quotes that came to mind were:
"Lies, damn lies, and statistics."
"Believe none of what you hear and half of what you see."
Oh true. Libertarians are clueless. They can't acknowledge a very simple truth. The smart amoral scum-bags will always find each other and form alliances to manipulate the political systems to their own benefit. If I were smart enough (I'm already amoral and a scum-bag) I'd be doing the same thing.
Socialist are the same. They can’t publicly acknowledge that the smart amoral scum-bags ARE the party insiders, which causes duplicitous behavior by the Party nobility. That why fascism is the political system that eventually always wins. The smart amoral fascist scum-bags are respected by their peasants because they are honestly and openly screwing them – and the peasants know they’d do exactly the same thing IF they were smart enough. God, King (nobility), and Country (patriotism) – can’t go wrong with THAT combination.
MrM, I think you and I are on the same page. I posed the question about Denmark because it would add some info on where that revenue max point is and the shape of the curve. I want to know where that point is, because I think we have to get to it for high incomes, but going over it is counter productive and pointlessly punitive. The purpose of a tax is to raise revenue (aside from Pigout effects), so I don't think there is any reason why you would want to be on the right hand side of the curve, even if you thought that everyone in gov't was both a genius and a saint.
how can you escape it...you need to visit all the bible belt states..... A republican always gets elected hands down...no need to think twice they support the belief.
It was not like this before Reagan...dont know what turned people into nuts??
The non religious go completely amoral, and then the religious
come in to tone this down resulting in the same amount of
amorality, but lots more hypocracy. I am much more tolerant
of hypocracy. Some things are better in a dark closet.
It was "those people". There were ALWAYS nuts. But, they were controlled and balanced and directed by the Democrats toward a useful enemy; the rich. The peasants are now fighting with each other, leaving the rich to destroy their unions (meaning; their power-base and wages) and leaving the nobility lots of free time to loot the country. Which, they are almost done doing.
LL,
Since when is there a connection between morality and religion? Religion talks about morality, but there is no evidence, zero, zilch, that religious people are more moral than non religious people.
I am there with you....(proud to be scum bag and no respect for dogma called as morality and ethics)
If only i can become smart enough to fake religious beleifs...not puke in front of those delusionals who think that the big guy is going to invite them into heaven....i can easily win election in these bible states....and then no looking back, just pretending and kaching year after year.
Dirk - I also think we are aligned. We should just remember that almost everything in economics, and certainly the Laffer curve, is ever-changing and depends on the culture, social traditions, tax tradition, strictness of law enforcement, etc. So trying to estimate where the Laffer maximum is might be nearly impossible, as it will be moving over time. Therefore, I think one should proceed incrementally and measure the impact of relatively small changes.
Since when is there a connection between morality and religion?
Who said their was. The true-believers think there is, but the nobility - the people that matter - have NEVER let morals get in the way of a good deal. It IS a good story to control the dumbasses with tho.
I think you overlook the fact that the curve moves as other countries raise and lower their tax rates. The rich are fairly mobile, they can move their wealth where it is least exposed to taxes (which is why so many rich Europeans live--at least legally-- in Monaco.)
The rich are fairly mobile, they can move their wealth where it is least exposed to taxes
This has been the mantra for decades. My response: let them move (and require loss of US citizenship). Good riddance. They also shouldn''t be allowed to move their money without moving their ass. And no reverse moves allowed. I can live without Henry Paulson and be a very happy guy.
I think lying to yourself takes a mental and physical toll.
That's the difference though between a TRUE noble and a con. If you are smart AMORAL and a scum-bag - when you are screwing people - you are NOT lying to anybody. You are just (say) level-setting the table-steaks and orchestrating your core-competencies in a going-forward strategic space. A TRUE noble is AMORAL not IMMORAL, big big difference. Ken Lewis does NOT lie when he says the banking system is healthier than ever.
I took to religion like I did school. Didn't stick but do respect others freedom to practice as they wish. I don't hate the Scouts or the country clubbers either.
I bet you think the employer pays for half of SS and Medicare also.
The thing about religion is that it is about questions about which no rational person can really be certian, but demands absolute certianty, thus people kill and are willing to be killed over it. Arithmetic is about questions that are just as important, but people can be certian about the answer, thus people dont fight over it.
Personally I fall in the agnotic/deist camp. I admire the order, and inherent simplicity of the universe, not a lot of terms in Newtons laws of gravity, or in E= mc^2, which does suggest to me some intellegence in the universe, but it is a long way from that step to thinking who ever wrote those laws really cares about what I have for lunch or where I decide to put my penis
I bet you think the employer pays for half of SS and Medicare also.
Yep, it is ALL tax deductible for the corps. What shows as profit/loss for the SEC is way above what is reported to the IRS. The taxpayers pay for all biz expenses in reduced taxes.
They DIDN'T do anything wrong. All they did was screw people. What's wrong with THAT? That's what capitalism IS. Upper management screws the stock-holders, middle-management is screwing labor and the customers, proving to upper-management they deserve a shot at the stock-holders. That's why the capitalism WORKS so well. It's the natural human system.
The order of the universe is default order, not the order of someone
planning to build a car, or a housewife deciding that all the canned
soup would be handy to have in the same place.
"Being able to publish the mathematical probability that a corporation or polling firm is just making up numbers is something interesting."
Agreed but do you see that being explained or challenged by anyone that reports the number from any polling business? They are businesses with overhead and the need to satisfy the people paying for their service. A comparison can be made to the rating agencies and the trap they fell into in the need to generate income and the knowledge that someone else would rate the crap AAA.
My cynical side tells me that Strategic Vision LLC was created to not only provide polling "data" of a certain spin but also to compromise the long time trusted polling businesses i.e.
* American Research Group
* The Gallup Poll
* Mason-Dixon
* Quinnipiac University Polling Institute
* Rasmussen Reports
* Research 2000
* SurveyUSA
* Zogby
Does anyone even pay attention to the small print that tells you what polling company provided the data quoted?
Ever explore the employee unit cost? The employee produced the wealth that all expense have to be accounted for. Employer pays nothing, it is just an accounting scam on the employee. Next you can tell me that in a real estate sale the seller pays the Realtor commission.
To expand a bit, if someone thinks that an invisible man will provide for a better afterlife for them, well more power to them, but there thoughts on their afterlife should have no role in how I decide to live my life. When religion enters politics, it means that people are using their thoughts of the afterlife to influence my life.
Some things can be argued on a religious basis, but people should also be able to defend them on a secular basis. Yes, thou shall not Kill is a relgious argument against murder, but it is easy to make a secular case against allowing murder, which is more than sufficent.
That being said, Jesus, at least how he is portrayed in the 4 gospels, is a very interesting and worthwhile moral philosopher, and I honor him because he was wise, not because he was the son of god.
I debated with two of my religious colleagues...who are professionals very well educated. and they said that there are something for which they will give life and take life. (i took the gay right issue and gave them an option where i will not give the gays right to adopt..but simply employer and tax benefits....no slippery slope thing...everything tightly sealed)
did they really mean it...or it was just foolhardy jingoism...(empty threat...since they are upset that their view is getting proven wrong??)
I am really not able to figure out what makes them so unreasonable...and willing to sacrifice the future of their kids??
That being said, Jesus, at least how he is portrayed in the 4 gospels, is a very interesting and worthwhile moral philosopher, and I honor him because he was wise, not because he was the son of god.
Carefully selected - by the insiders - 4 out of a dozen gospels. But, I'm SURE insiders then weren't the smartest AMORAL scum-bags - like they are now tho. Things were different then.
MrM. good point, also note that Relavations is not in the Orthodox Bible, and that is the book that probably gives rise to more craziness than any other in it. Also from a structural point of view, always looks like a crazy apendix to the book.
I will feel rich when a person knocks on the door begging to do
my housework in exchange for food and a pallet on the floor.
Like my mom in the '30s. 13 years old, kicked out of the house, mother's helper jobs for basically what you describe and a few bucks a month.
You'll feel in control of your life, and you'll wonder why other people aren't in control of theirs. That's how her employers felt; among them a doctor and a lawyer, the ag town elite.
She used to tell a story about eating dinner at the table with the doctor's family. For dinner they served her exactly what they ate, in the same portions. The thing was, none of them did hard labor and my mother cleaned and did heavy chores all day. She started to starve. She broke into the fridge one night and ate a small cake of what appeared to be deviled ham. The next morning, the lady of the house -- somewhat puzzled -- asked the household at large what the devil had happened to the dog food.
My mother broke down and confessed; and to their credit the family didn't fire her, but started giving her larger portions. Abject fear of starving and homelessnes, powerlessness, cluelessness of the the part of the secure elite -- that's what you'd be a part of. And may be.
No personal offense or hard feelings, Liz. I just heard that story too many times.
My son had a roommate who is Catholic and they were
arguing and my son backed him into a corner, and they
guy sez. . . .wait for it. . .it's a mystery.
Now most of the universe is, I concede a mystery. But when
you back someone into a logical corner, saying that is a
mystery is cheating. . .which is, I do believe, a sin.
I told him they did this. He didn't believe me, he thought
I was just being anti religious. He marvelled--they
really do this. Yep, I said, they do.
I've read a few of those alternative Gospels, and they are inferior to the
traditional 4 in readability. Seem to have more nonsense.
Those alternative gospels have not benefited from centuries of polishing by numerous authors (I assume you did not compare to the canonical 4 as they were originally written in a mixture of ancient Greek and Aramaic but to the modern translation into English).
Well it seems to be an endless series of restatements of positions long held and previously expressed...repeatedly...though we all have our compulsions so I am loathe to criticize, hence the lunch call lol
The rich are fairly mobile, they can move their wealth where it is least exposed to taxes
...
This has been the mantra for decades. My response: let them move (and require loss of US citizenship). Good riddance.
Ahaha, and realize that wherever they move to, you know what they'll find? A bunch of other rich people, crowding them out! Suddenly, you don't feel so rich when you've moved to the same tax haven as most the rest of the planet. We'll have our social justice and equality, and they'll have what they deserve, a bunch of people just like them.
Though the Chinese just might get their consumerism groove on if their militia uniforms are any indication...
.
Red Miniskirts Eclipse Mao Jackets at China Bash: William Pesek
Commentary by William Pesek
Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Among all the wildly photogenic moments in Beijing, the red miniskirts were a standout from the missiles, the tanks and the giant fish.
The legions of female militia clad in minis, white jackboots and submachine guns last week seemed especially incongruous under Mao Zedong’s gaze. His portrait, which hangs over Tiananmen Square, can make one feel like it’s Oct. 1, 1949. It was then and there that he declared victory in a civil war. Red Miniskirts Eclipse Mao Jackets at China Bash: William Pesek - Bloomberg.com
and realize that wherever they move to, you know what they'll find?
But, they don't have to physically move just to move their wealth. Merica has THE most loyal and docile peasants in the world. Plus, most REAL Merican peasant worship their betters. If I were wealthy enough, I'd move the wealth off-shore and keep my citizenship (purchase a politician or two) and phyiscally live wherever the tomatoes were growing.
The local Porsche dealership in Fremont,ca seems to be hitting hard times. Back lot is empty. Front used to be used and new porsches.
Now it's a few used, a few new and a bunch of used BMW as well as a few used toyotas. Doesn't seem to be long for this world. In fact all the dealerships here seemed to be pretty dead from high end all the way down to lower end.
Most definitely they are. Text from neighboring friends:
"Trailers packed it's just like vacation... not. We've got a place in Phelan. The houses that were lost were down in the canyon it's burning in the large snowplay area heading towards pipeline.
80% of this country is christians....is there any surprise that 35% of them refuse to accept the constitution over the bible?
Just because people are christians, doesn't mean they're creationists or crazy (in other ways) or favor mixing religion & the state. Austria has a state religion: it is Catholicism. However, I haven't noticed Austria having the same issues the US has had w/evangelistic fundies who think seem to think a capitalist theocracy is somehow mandated by whatever version or translation of the Bible their group happens to use.
Prior to WWII, some of the people who laid their lives & freedom (from prison/concentration camp) on the line to help Jews escape or hide were Lutherans or Catholics. They did so in part because of their religious beliefs.
I am not a religious person myself and I have to stop myself from saying the same thing about "christians" that you have. But they are not all alike, and some "christians" strongly favor the separation of church & state, and some walk their talk. Ditto for Jews, Buddhists, etc.
Libertarianism has seemed to me like a belief system for dreamers, it seems almost an almost Panglossian belief system.
Just because people are christians, doesn't mean they're creationists or crazy
Very true. In fact, if you look at the union movement in the early 20th century, civil-rights movement, early environmentalism, all strongly influenced by the "nice deity" Christians. The problems started happening when the "mean deity" Christians got their own Party to play with. Been downhill ever sense. The "nice deity" Christians have let the "mean deity" Christians kidnap their "common" deity.
By the time any of the ones that concern me burn $100 millions worth of other houses will have burned first. I don't see how they'll save a few of the outlying streets.
And if you've read my posts you know I might misbehave, but I'd never
starve anyone!!! I am more guilty of pushing unwanted food on them.
Oh, Liz, worry not. I know.
My real point was that the folks who paid my mom oh, $10 a month and room and board were beneficiaries of a system that was doing quite well by them; didn't quite sink in it wasn't working for millions of others. They probably thought they were doing my mom a good turn, and they were.
But... I just got the monthly newsletter from the local foodbank. I dropped them some money earlier in the year and now they're my new best friends. I took a look down the list of board members and directors: ag people/growers; car wash owners; landscape firm owners; amusement park/tourist attraction owners; and bankers. Lots and lots of bankers.
These are all the people who benefit from a low-income workforce, and the people who help them fund their businesses. The service industry is huge here. But it's seasonal; and doesn't pay much. so out of the goodness of their hearts, the people who benefit from low-income labor that doesn't support the workers year round -- not so much that they don't need food assistance -- have put together a charity to put a bandaid on the economic system so it can go on. Oh, I'm sure they feel they're doing a good thing; and they are. But it also benefits them. And the more people like me they can con into coming on board with donations, the more their system is supported.
Sorry for the rant, but it's Sunday, I'm sick, and I'm one of the non-crazy Christians. The kind that believes you walk the walk or it's all just a prosperity ministry with nice rituals. I will keep giving to the food bank; they do serve a lot of people who are starving, now more than ever.
It IS Clive. Another Englishman living vicariously through the "kick-ass" Republican party fantasy. FT needs to get out into the "heartland" a bit more.
Yeah, odd how a "Failed Banks and the DIF" thread went all religious, isn't it
Is it weird? I mean there must be a lot of true believers out there whose faith in the FDIC insurance is strong. Otherwise none of those banks on the "troubled bank list" would have any deposits...
how can you not have faith loaning USD to the person who has printing press for USD.....he will always return your loand with interest....just give him enough time to send the electrons.
Sold all my income property at the tippy top of the market. When the smoke clears I'll buy back 3-4x as much. rinse and repeat. For now, just personal use property at risk.
1
Vive le DIF!
Let them eat mistake.
(offaled)
sm_
Imagine how beat-up the new car dealers got on the SUV lease-bomb?
Lease a tricked out $39k Tahoe to the hoi ploy, for 3 years, and get it back when it's worth $10k tops...
Ouch x Millions
I have been wondering how First Federal has escaped Sheila's wrath. So the LATimes has an answer in yesterday's paper:
FirstFed plans stock sale in bid to avert government takeover - Los Angeles Times
CR
is there similar information available on credit unions
from ncua
i havent been successful finding it
"Ouch x Millions "
For the leasing companies, not the dealers.
I would assume that the dealers are now leasing only the vehicles that should hold value.
The rise and fall of the Roaming Empire
techy246 (profile) wrote on Sun, 10/4/2009 - 12:02 pm
anyone else care to comment about my reflation scenarios? (i have been looking for some answers since one year...only Ben seems to care about my question
I'm in the whipsaw camp: serious deflation (we have a debt money system; the banks create the debt money; the debts have gone bad; the Fed cannot create reserves fast enough to offset the crystalization of the bad debts), then cost push inflation (destruction of supply systems due to financial woes leading to supply tightness or shortages and higher explicit prices or implicit prices which include opportunity costs of waiting or doing without).
NW
Just like lending on homes currently, new car loans are being gone over with a fine-tooth comb, despite the urgency of dealers to make sales (except for sales aberrations like C4C) and it shows in the sales numbers, which are like a frozen waterfall, thawing out in our winter of financial discontent, ready for the plunge pool below.
speaking of Iceland, will PwC face any international repercussions if it is found guilty in the Icelandic investigations?
PWC involvement in the Satyam scam in India did not have any repercussions on PWC business in other countries
ICAI probe finds Pricewaterhouse auditors guilty in connection with Satyam accounting scam - International Business Times
PwC India audit head resigns amid Satyam scandal - Times Online
Would the depositors accept beaver skins? Beads and glass trinkets?
Right now I am essentially unconcerned with the banks- a lot of failure is built in.
What I am waiting for is the resurrection of the postal savings bank to fund the mortgage GSEs. I imagine how fast a $250k guaranteed account paying 3.5% would be funded. So, put a floor under the savings returns, gut the banks, and cheaply fund the residential mortgage market. Then do an rtc for commercial and destroy the rest of the stupid lenders, and pay savers a real return again.
Mortgages would require 20% down, and only starter homes would be FHA eligible.
But this would require killing off a couple thousand banks, but then we killed off how many S&Ls?
Banking is the new dead part of the economy- I had a laugh reading the Week with the comment about paying engineers more, and bankers less- banking is essentially dead- and will be dead for a very long time.
The only innovation will be a return to the 1930s style destruction of the equity/banking interface.
Ma and Pa Kettle won't risk their life savings for Jamie Dimon's suits and hedge funds.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Ma and Pa Kettle won't risk their life savings for Jamie Dimon's suits and hedge funds.
First Ma and Pa need to break the Wall Street's iron grip on Washington, then they will get to decide what to do with their life savings (measured in constant dollars).
For now Jamie Dimon makes these decisions for Ma and Pa.
Not that i'm thinking of making a run for the border, but...
My mom was Canadian, and has been a Yank for like 40 years now~
Does that get me a "get out of jail" card when push>meets<shove?
"Not that i'm thinking of making a run for the border, but..."
What would you be running from, JD?
"bags fly free"
Not gonna do it.
Ma & Pa have their life savings in a (much lower valued) 401k and their underwater house. They aren't making any of those decisions.
Maybe they will wake up and do so, but I doubt it.
The usual suspect, fear.
"Mortgages would require 20% down, and only starter homes would be FHA eligible"
Doesn't the second part of that negate the first part? I agree that it might make some sense to allow less than 20% down mortgages in a small segment of the housing market (say less than 10% of all sales), but Congress can't seem to resist going too far. It's that camel's nose thing.
JD, why would you think Canada will be safer?
We seem to be all in the same boat, on the same river, looking for a paddle.
Here are some links:
2009
Reports, Plans and Statistic
Last year's (2008) report:
http://www.ncua.gov/Resources/Reports/statistics/Yearend2008.pdf
Good luck wading thru their reports.
NW
"The usual suspect, fear."
Hard to leave it behind.
However, I left Moscow the day the first Gulf War started, had to bribe an Aeroflot clerk to get on the plane to Frankfurt, had to enter Germany for a few minutes to reach the international terminal, had to ignore a blustering German cop to pick up my ticket to Dulles. Fear was a great pick-me-up.
And AllenM, why does your proposal for reforming bank lending focus on making money available for mortgages? Didn't we learn that favoring lending against RE was unwise? Shouldn't more money be loaned for productive enterprise, and less for RE? Shouldn't any incentives support that re-direction, not fight it?
I know the gangs pretty much run rampant in Regina, and they can't keep up financially like us by building ever more prisons in which to hold their populace and profit by, of which they barely incarcerate them compared to us, as it turns out.
The weather sucks though.
Would people PLEASE stop conflatiing TARP with the Stim. NO, TARP money did not go to Oxnard's water system, or anybody's runways etc etc. TARP went mostly into prefered stock investments of the banks, with a little bit left over for PPIP stuff. We got a bad deal on the terms of the prefered stock investments because Hank was not negotiating on behalf of the taxpayers, but wanted to funnel money to his buds. However, some of the TARP has already been repaid, at a profit to the govt (insufficent for the risk we took, but still a positive return). Of course the worst and riskiest of the investments (i.e C, FNM, FRE, AIG) have not paid back, only the ones that were in rel good shape, ie JPM, GS.
Now the Stim might have paid for some of those projects that people have talked about, but most of what has been spent so far has been on pain releivers, like extended UE benie, subsidized Cobra, and help to S&L gov'ts. Some infrastructure projects have been started, seeing a lot of road work around here in Dayton, but most of that stuff is still in the pipeline.
does anyone see anything positive?
or everyone here has given up on any possibility that maybe there will be orderly deleveraging (ala japanese style)?
no wonder economics is called as dismal science...everyone with any knowledge have come to accept doom-gloom, while the masses are busy with the football season
Thousands of banks have "failed." It's 98 that have been seized. I used to get ticked at the abuse of common language but now I expect it. Apparently you aren't a failure until the FDIC says you are. FDICspeak.
Once again, Patientrenter, you needlessly confuse commercial banking and residential lending.
The savings and loan system worked for decades until we purposely broke it.
Less money through what I suggest will be available for residential- it will be funded S&L style through tight loans and low returns.
What you mistake is the safe housing system for the entire lending system- big banks will once again make loans instead of funding PE syndicates of their buds to lose money fast.
As for lending for productive enterprise, well, if that productive enterprise materializes, then the money will be found AT A HIGHER RATE OF RETURN, COMMENSURATE WITH THE RISK!!!
Hate to caps lock you, but you can't have your cake and eat it too- so face the facts that the banking system WILL be remade, and you won't like the outcome, unless you think 3.5% is stellar for a return.
Someday this war's gonna end...
techy,
many posters here are addicted to doom, so you're getting germs of hard truth amidst a torrent of sentiments that are just expressions of an emotional need to see Armageddon coming.
In reality, the pressures we see now are likely to be released across a variety of channels - some inflation, some further drops in real asset values, some postponement of full retirement dates, some higher taxes, some more debt defaults, some higher unemployment (temporarily)...... But we'll live mostly the same as we do now, and we'll adapt to the differences.
"you mistake is the safe housing system for the entire lending system"
I thought that favoring lending to buy homes was the major cause of the bubble. Did I just wake up in an alternate universe?
Those slacker Canadians can only find 116 per 100k of their population to stick in the hoosegow, while we can find 760 per 100k. They obviously aren't looking hard enough...
There is private investment money available now for business.
I like that better than bank loans - banks just want to bleed you at zero risk, at least PE has some skin in the game with you.
You mistake the insanity of a bubble that was funded outta reality by wall street- what happens now is that you can safely fund houses again, because, guess what, nobody in their right mind is going to buy a house for appreciation right now.
Further, you forget that it wasn't favored lending, as much as stupid lending- you get a bubble with nothing down, low interest for five years, refi madness.
How does this square with a 20% down owner occupied stable 30 year loan?
Not even in the same reality.
What is your agenda? Because you seem to be purposely obfuscating what I say. Either that, or you are as obtuse as BdL.
Someday this war's gonna end...
No, mostly they're too polite. Like on a typical smash and grab in most Canadian towns:
"Pardon, may I please have the contents of your till. I don't have a gun although I can always go get."
I would like to reinforce Dirk's point, above. TARP is different from ARRA.
Troubled Asset Relief Program - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
PatientRenter..
thanks for the voice of reason....i felt i am the only one in the blogosphere willing to accept that things are not going to absolutely end in hell.
would love to hear more from you about my reflation scenario...in the previous posts comment.
Ok now i feel good and i can go back to my football game....or watch some TV...no more buying canned food and ammunation
Don't mess with the Mounties - at last that was the impression I had when I was in Canada 30 years ago. They seemed to have their own idiosyncratic way of resolving issues, permanently.
So can we view California's court mandated release of 40,000 prisoners (equal to a reduction of the incarceration rate of 111/100k of population) the start of the prison bubble bursting?
I dunno. I hear broke former house investors wishing for
money to buy cheap houses, now, because people with money
are gonna make a fortune.
At a purchase of 20 cents on the dollar, that may even be true.
If the lending mkt stays frozen in South Fla.
By the way, Terry, when and where were those deficiency judgments.
CC companies go after people. Car lenders go after people.
House lenders don't.
As pointed out by someone else above, deficiencies can be got
rid of in bk.
Last time I was up over, a Sikh-Canadian (festooned with colorful headgear and a beard that practically screamed terrorist) was manning the X-Ray machine at the airport in Calgary. He'd get shot after working for 15 minutes doing the same thing in LAX, wearing that get-up...
I think a bit of reflation would be ideal & have said so before.
But it has to include wage inflation too; without that the money is
dead electrons
I rather think that the best way would literally be by
s. No
snark intended. Drop 100s over lower class neighborhoods.
I can't afford to give my secy a raise & she knows it.
Companies laying off can't afford $$for the worker bees.
Where is this wage inflation gonna come from?
I agree, AllenM, that enforcing a strict 20% down minimum would do more for the future health of home financing than dozens of more complicated alternatives.
Where I am going is that I think we should no longer favor lending against homes. We've provided mortgage interest tax incentives, capital gain incentives, government interest rate subsidies, government loan guarantees, and a myriad of other measures that favor housing investment. Where has it all gotten us? We've just increased the price of homes, and made preparing financially for retirement into a lottery. People living in Ohio lost the lottery, and people living in Corona del Mar won. In the meanwhile, we drove too many people into the FIRE sector of our economy, and too few into productive enterprises. Productive enterprises need financing, and savings will either go there, or into more housing investment. Why grease the wheels for more housing investment?
So I applaud your proposal to enforce 20% down payment minimums, although I didn't see any description of the down payments you were proposing for FHA loans. But I wonder why we continue to make it easier for savings to be invested in housing instead of future production of tradeable goods and services, or those that can substitute for imports.
When it costs California $49k per head per year to keep criminals @ bay...
You have to wonder if crime really does pay?
When I told my she didn't have to pay any taxes on her
house profits, she kept saying to me, are you sure???
Actually, when you take 25 years of inflation into account, she
did just a bit better than breaking even.
lawyerliz wrote:
Rebates and tax cuts for the lower 40% of the workers. When 1% of the country's taxpayers own 50% of its wealth (as they do), they are a fat pig waiting to be harvested. Raise taxes on the upper 10% of earners, and provide tax cuts and payments to those who have no had a pay increase in 10 years - including cash payments for those who pay no taxes.
You have to wonder if crime really does pay?
Crime does pay. Question is, whom?
Let's make it the upper 9%. The hub and I are in the upper 10%!!!
(Or thereabouts).
And no, it is plenty enough to be comfortable on, but it is not enough
to live rich.
I will feel rich when a person knocks on the door begging to do
my housework in exchange for food and a pallet on the floor.
Rich people are people who have maid service.
Mock Turtle: More current credit union info.
Exhibits (PDFs) from their directors meeting
Agenda
Draft Board Actions
some exhibits
http://www.ncua.gov/GenInfo/BoardandAction/DraftBoardActions/Item4a_Aug09Board.pdf
http://www.ncua.gov/GenInfo/BoardandAction/DraftBoardActions/Item4b_Aug09NETREPORT.pdf
NW
JimPortlandOR;
"Rebates and tax cuts for the lower 40% of the workers."
The lower 40% already pay no income tax and get refundable tax credits. The only way to raise more tax money is to tax the middle class. There isn't enough money in the top 10% beyond what is already being taken. The middle class is where the big money is.
People will always invest in housing- the FHA should be 5 to 10% depending on the loan and qualifications.
Reversing all of the subsidies is implicit in the discussion above- but by simply putting them into a targeted low return system. In other words, you buy a house to live in, you get reasonable costs of money. You buy a house to rent or speculate, you pay whatever the market demands.
Same for savers- you want a government guarantee- you take a low rate of return. Right now the rate of return is absurd.
People in Ohio have always lost the lottery compared to Corona Del Mar- that becomes apparent every November once it snows.
As for the rest of making retirement planning into a lottery- well, what the frick is a 401k? It sure isn't a pension.
Further, pensions have never had an inflation component, allowing companies to fund the current obligations. But the real crime is the creation of the debt ridden society that doesn't reward small savers- instead totally punishes them.
Forcing people into a casino they are not prepared for has led to this huge disaster- now you, who have capital, are being targeted to help pay for the boomer trainwreck. Well, here is the bill.
Someday this war's gonna end...
And who is espousing this?
How come those noted surrender monkeys in France, can only manage to keep 96 out of 100k of their population in prison?
They love charming rogues!
Should weed some more.
There is an endless supply of weeds in Florida.
You must be in the top 10%.
Come on lurkers, I promise to be nice.
We're Number 1 (holds up super-sized one-digited foam finger)
ICPS :School of Law :King's College London : World Prison Brief : King's College London
lawyerliz wrote:
well, actually the upper 5% is a obese enough target. Wealth is incredibly concentrated in the US now. Obama wanted to return to upper marginal limit of 39% as it was in Reagan's time. That is too low. Above $250K per person ($500K per couple) is the right dividing line. That will catch all the greedy pigs that force the piglets into near stagnation and borderline starvation. The question is how to get the money while preventing them from burying their money under some of the many available tax havens. Reform and Increase - not extend and pretend.
Come on lurkers, I promise to be nice.
It's not you they're afraid of.
CR, I'd like to see this chart re-ordered by date, so that we can see whether the projected losses, and percentage losses, are getting larger or smaller as weeks go by.
LOL barfly
Lending for real estate was fueled by the need for an income stream on Wall Street by securitizing the mortgages. The relaxing of lending standards went hand in hand with low interest rates(free money) from the FED, reduced regulator oversight, legislation supporting a home owner society, and the need to inflate another bubble to recover from the tech bubble collapse.
This is old and accepted conventional wisdom here at CR. I thought.
++++
"emotional need to see Armageddon coming."
I have really searched my feelings about the current crisis to see if this is true. The emotion that surfaces is anger at the continued fraud and corruption and the realization that "we the people" lost our identity as Americans when we were re-branded as consumers. Finding a new identity now that debt load trumps buying power is the current struggle. I'm not sure it will be Armageddon but I am sure this isn't a bump in the road with smooth sailing ahead.
++++
NFL Sunday! Tracking the attendance numbers and merchandise sales of professional sports is a huge indicator of how tough things are out in consumer land.
sm_landlord wrote:
I'm thinking that most here realize how ridiculous your statement is. It it widely accepted that the upper few percent of taxpayers own half to 2/3rds of the wealth. And they don't pay even a major part of their 'raw' obligation because they take refuge in tax shelters that remove that income from taxation.
There's gold in them hillls.
A double-dip recession served by the hoi polloiticals in a waffle cone...
Let them eat cake?
As I said, in many years we are in the very bottom of the top 10%.
I am not complaining at all. But we don't have tons of money to
throw down a black hole, which is the gov't. We live nicely and
our house is paid off. We never buy "aspirational Luxury" (what bs).
The hub is still driving his Saturn, and apparently the dealer will
stay open until his last one is sold, and presumably will have
parts for a while and will sell used cars until he gets another
franchise.
The point is that you need a LOT of money in order to have money
and live rich both.
More weeding.
Yes Liz I agree, I used to live in Fla and there is an endless supply of weed there. Perhaps it will be the new bubble?
"It it widely accepted that the upper few percent of taxpayers own half to 2/3rds of the wealth."
You are confusing wealth with income.
Take a look at what has happened in California. The high variability of income for the top 5% swings the state from feast to famine on a regular basis. Most agree that over-reliance on high income tax rates does not work.
A national sales tax would make much more sense.
0% for food, utilties, rental housing, meds
5% for clothes, furniture, cable TV
10% for computers, TVs, movies
20% for yahts, vacation homes, privte jets
something along those lines.
Who is most?
Key question, what is the revenue maximizing top marginal tax rate. It is not 100%, or even 90%, so putting it up that high would be self defeating. It is also clearly higher than the current 35%. Intuitively, it seems like 50% is about the right number, but I have never seen an emperical study of this.
Any aspiring Econ phD students out there looking for a thesis topic, this would be a great one.
Also, while tax rates get most of the attention, attachment points are of equal importance. Big difference between a 35% tax rate that kicks in at $100K than one that kicks in at $250K. Would love to see a raising of the attachement points for the low brackets, and a lowering at the higher ones. Raising the attachement points aty the low end would help all about equally (except those who are in the zero bracket), lowering the high end would hit the rich and near rich. Depending on the amount of the adjustment some of the near rich (or just doing ok) might break even on the deal.
Ummm, nobody is buying small or medium sized yachts.
don't know about big ones.
FDIC should be tried for Gross negligence - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
They saw this coming and they failed to regulate and failed to take steps to enforce the law in regard to accounting related to reserves; this is criminal and yet another sign of a systemic economic failure in America -- land of fantasy accounting and bullshit!
Round up the usual numbers, inspector.
What's an attachment point?
Define near rich. In NY. In Cali. In Flyover. In Florida.
I hate that Flyover term, but it seems to be politically acceptable.
Afternoon laugh for all:
INDIANAPOLIS - WellPoint Inc., the largest U.S. insurer, dismissed a "small number" of workers last week and announced cuts to employee health benefits Friday, in its latest attempt to deal with the recession's toll on enrollment.
If they didn't cut the employees health benefits in a health insurance company, their executives couldn't get their multi-million salaries and bonuses. Poor babies...
//// lost our identity as Americans when we were re-branded as consumers. Finding a new identity now that debt load trumps buying power is the current struggle /////
wow, that is the answer. now I need to decide what my choice is.
You are so right, for a very long time we have been seen, and seen ourselves, as consumers. We bragged about and flashed our consumerism for the world to see, the world tried to keep up.
Once we change the preception we hold for ourselves, we will change a great many things. But we sure have allot of perceptions to change, debt, climate, value of family & friends, so much. Sorry, am rambling here.
Maybe DOJ should also be charged with Gross negligence and while at it, FASB, Treasury, FRB, Congress .... the whole barrel of
and rotten apples. We need a new system and obviously the Obama people are as corrupt as the Bush people and no one has any plans to nationalize the failing bank system -- because the jobless recovery is rocketing America back to ... ahhh, hmmm, ok, the stocj market is up like 60% in about the last 6 months, but then that gets back to fantasy bullshit and zero earnings growth, so we have a land of speculation with a broken banking system and the powers to be think all is well..... :puke:
Weeds, weeds, weeds. I wonder if my weed wacker is charged up.
Take a look at what has happened in California. The high variability of income for the top 5% swings the state from feast to famine on a regular basis. Most agree that over-reliance on high income tax rates does not work.
They just need to match spending to multi-year average revenues to solve the problem. Save the revenues in excess of average during good years; spend down the prior savings during revenue lean years.
There: Cali's budget problems solved.
Enforcement: make the members of the legislature personally liable for any deficit.
Yes, yes, a :puke: symbol. In the meantime
is
pretty good.
But first a rolling lol symbol.
We are going to re-define what we are now and what we will be after, and nobody said it's gonna be easy getting there, but the future waits for nobody.
Two banking questions I've been too shy to ask:
In some circles, I still hear the hoary chestnut from bankers that "The government made us make those bad loans." Recently, and in some very old comments, dryfly has addressed this. But they're still talking that talk.
But, since I first started surfing intertubz to figure out what was going on (about 1.5 weeks before a dip in the S&P back in Feb 2007) I have also heard bankers, and correspondent bankers acting as intermediaries between the local tiny banks and the Fed, insist that at one time a bank caught strong reproach, or worse, particularly from the Fed, but from other regulators as well, if it had too much in Excess Reserves (read: any Excess Reserves) in its account at the Fed.
Can anybody clarify this for me?
It sounds like the Fed was forcing correspondent banks to purchase securities. I'd've killed anybody insisting I had to buy U.S. Treasuries in Spring of 2003.
It may be a shitty broken failed system, but it's the only system we have -- and that should be good for another 400 point gain next week!
"They just need to match spending to multi-year average revenues to solve the problem."
Experience has demonstrated that this is politically impossible. It's not like it hasn't been attempted.
"make the members of the legislature personally liable for any deficit. "
Trouble is; they aren't good for it. Although I guess we could bring back debtor's prison just for ex-legislators.
Screw the weeds, I need to work on that Indian summer tan...
Later
how come you guys are allowed to talk about tax increases? i thought that was a swear word
i think 49% of tax for the top earners (say some one making 5 million a year).
and i would like to have 2% for the low earners...(they can claim proudly they pay tax).
nobody gets money from the gov more than the tax they paid.
but of course...healthcare will be free so that people dont die.
and food stamps to anyone going to die of starvation.
but before that minimum wages such that you can live happily even if you flip burgers ....and of course enough jobs so that anyone willing to work will get one.
oh well....time to wake up..
Yes, yes, a :puke: symbol. In the meantime Sick is
pretty good.
But first a rolling lol symbol.
does the puke symbol come with great Porcelain Bus and Driver?
Liz, careful you don't whack any green shoots with your weed-whacker.
'course, there is a quote by someone probably famous in the Oakland Museum...
"A weed is a plant whose value has yet to be discovered."
techy246,
I am so with you, and Big Gov can swoop in and save the common man, like what we did in the 1930's, but there's a little glitch.
1930's: USA is the world's largest creditor and oil exporter
2000's: USA is the world's largest debtor and oil importer
LL
For example (just making these numbers up, dont have the actual ones handy, but the principal is the same.
Up to $30K, 0% rate
Above 30k, 5%
Above 40k 10%
Above 50k 15%
etc so someone earning $55k would pay (10K * .05) + (10K * .1) + (5K * .15) or $2250 or an effective rate of 4.09%. The 5%, 10% 15% are the tax rates, the $30K, $40K and $50 are the attachement points.
Now assume you increase each of those attachement points by $5k, so the same $55K income would owe ($10K *.05) + (10k *.10) or $1500 or an effective rate of 2.73%. At the same time say the rates and attachments looked like this looked like this:
Old
30K 5%
50K 10%
75K 20%
100K 25%
250K 35%
Without changing the 5%, 10% etc you could make things easier on the lower middle class by moving to a system that looked like this
New
40K 5%
60K 10%
80 K 20%
100k 25%
200K 35%
Same rates but different progressivity to the system
It's OK to talk about taxes: the Republicans have left the room. maybe even the planet.
and i would like to have 2% for the low earners...(they can claim proudly they pay tax).
techy...damn shame I have to run right now, but you've struck one of my nerves.
I volunteer to prepare taxes for low-income tax filers and there is a world of difference in the attitude of those who have a "negative" income tax (refundable credits) and those who pay a positive tax.
Not so much a sense of entitlement by the former as a sense of ownership by the latter.
IMO, it's a BIG DEAL.
You may notice you don't see Republicans talking much about making the Bush tax cuts permanent any more. That was their big talking point during and just after the election.
Rajash
Everyone has figured out the gov needs the money. As much as they push debt, they know better.
The White Elephant party has been reduced to a solid 20% constituency that no pachyderm on the hill dare lay claim to, or criticize.
A national sales tax of "20% for yachts, vacation homes, and private jets" would eliminate a lot of US jobs. Note that all of those products are labor intensive, made in the US and pay above average wages.
Rajesh wrote:
The libertarians haven't tho. The problem is big-government "capture". The political-type 2's (applied socialists, progressives, liberals, democrats - whatever) never project-ahead their big-government-ever-increasing-taxes concept to the next election when the political-type #1's (applied fascists, conservatives, neo-cons, republicans - whatever) win the government and use the bigness for THEIR buddies and ideology and against the PT #2's. The hunt for the weapons of mass delusion and the ever increasing Republican police-state fantasy is made possible BY the very big government - and taxes - supported by BOTH political-types 1 & 2.
Bair Says Creditors Should Help Pay for Bank Failure (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Welcome to the ranks of the Socialists, Sheila. We knew it was a matter of time.
I know it's always open-season on scapegoats, but i'm not sure about Bairs.
Republicans are opposed to taxes; Libertarians are oppose to government spending.
Jack Staub wrote:
Perhaps we need to figure out OTHER non-outsourable labor intensive things to build and operate.
Check out the photo of Parisians-circa June 1940, on the menu @ Jesse's.
Jesse's Café Américain
Have any of those who think the libertarians are the answer to our problems ever read a Libertarian Party platform?
Long form here
Prisons are hard to out-source and very labor intensive.
I am with you on this one NOTaREALmerican .
but i am feeling: Liberatarians are dreamers for a desire for white....they dont want to work for gray. sorry thats why nobody pays attention to them.
BTW anyone who thinks conservative are only 20% be-aware...go look at this map: Election Center 2008 - Election Results & Politics News from CNN.com
they are 45% and if you add their sympathisers it is more than 50%.
80% of this country is christians....is there any surprise that 35% of them refuse to accept the constitution over the bible?
thank god...only 35% are delusional....i cant imagine the plight of a rational like me if 55% were writing the laws based on bible. and i was forced to go to church on sunday morning.
Libertarians: Question for you: do you believe in religion while making laws, if not you just got disowned by 45% of the population and you are branded as liberals. so stop dreaming and work such that we dont get raped year after years by lobbyists...while they fool the masses with non-issues.
Have any of you read the Republican or Democratic platforms? Platforms are documents created so insiders have something to fight over. Once their published they are forgotten and ignored.
Politics and government should be two different things. Know that will never be possible. Just saying.
Fewer politicans, more statesmen.
Key question, what is the revenue maximizing top marginal tax rate. It is not 100%, or even 90%, so putting it up that high would be self defeating. It is also clearly higher than the current 35%. Intuitively, it seems like 50% is about the right number, but I have never seen an empirical study of this.
Any aspiring Econ PhD students out there looking for a thesis topic, this would be a great one.
This is not a hard question and there is plenty of data around to make it a sophomore topic, not a doctoral one.
Here is a couple of data points:
The first one is a cross-country comparison , which shows that even with the marginal tax rate as high as 59% (Denmark) or 56% (Sweden) one can have very advanced and dynamic economies. As a matter of fact, most advanced economies have their marginal tax rate at 45%+ (Austria, Australia, Japan, Germany, France, Canada, Israel, Italy, Netherlands). With its marginal tax rate of 35% US is closer to Iran, Pakistan, Indonesia, India. Only Finland and New Zealand are other respectable members of this part of the tax rate curve.
The second one looks at the marginal tax rate in the US over time and shows that periods of strong growth happened at higher or much higher levels than today, although these rates were applied at much higher income levels than today.
So from the economic standpoint the answer is pretty clear - the marginal tax rate has to go up to pay for the debt incurred over the past 10 years and what will be incurred over the next 2-3 years, and most of this increase has to be shouldered by people with income above $1 million.
However, taxes are not an economic but rather a political/philosophical issue in this country, which is debated fact-free, right along with the right to bear arms or sexual education to children.
Socialist leader George Papandreou, the son and grandson of former prime ministers, won Greek elections on pledges to increase public spending and wages to combat the country’s first recession in more than a decade.
It is always refreshing to see the European solution to the debt crisis; makes me glad I'm an American. Our politicians are only half crazy (OK maybe three-quarters.)
Rajash
What do you think was promised with the stimulas package?
More jobs at good wages, using public spending.
Liz,I sent you a message via hoocoodanode.
how does one do this?
plus, it didn't really work in the 30s. thank hitler and WWII for obscuring that fact forever.
sorry I need comments on this thing too: Religions destroying the country:
BTW anyone who thinks conservative are only 20% be-aware...go look at this map: Election Center 2008 - Election Results & Politics News from CNN.com
they are 45% and if you add their sympathisers it is more than 50%.
80% of this country is christians....is there any surprise that 35% of them refuse to accept the constitution over the bible?
thank god...only 35% are delusional....i cant imagine the plight of a rational like me if 55% were writing the laws based on bible. and i was forced to go to church on sunday morning.
The Government forced you to go to the Public programing school also. Guess they won.
techy
Religion is fine.
My way or the highway. I am right, you are going to hell. Everyone must believe as I do and practice as I do and think as I do. Those are fanatics, of any religion. That is the problem and was addressed in the Constituion.
Well, if I were forced to go to church, I would wear a black armband, take
a salacious novel, and sit with my back to the front.
Or, alternatively, I would listen intently to the sermon, and if a suitable
rhetorical question were asked, I'd answer it. they really wouldn't want
me there after a very short while.
BTW household with $100k income pays around 30% in tax....think again.
how about that $150k for health insurance (paid by employer+employee)
how about that Payroll(or FICA) or 7% paid by employer..
is there anythiing i am missing.
but thank god if you have more than 5 million in capital and dont have to work...you only have to pay a flat tax of 15%
I went to Catholic programming school
It didn't take.
oops..
that should be $15k for health insurance
MrM, would Denmark or Sweden increase or decrease tax revenues if they cut their top tax rates by 3%, that is the key question. 56% is reasonably close to my 50% WAG as the maximum point on the Laffer curve (which is both true and for the most part trivial, the way it is used by GOP types who always say lower the top rate, regardless of where it is). There are always 2 rates that will produce the same revenue, except for the max point, and generally it makes more sense to use the left hand one than the right hand point.
thank god if you have more than 5 million in capital and dont have to work...you only have to pay a flat tax of 15%
Or if you manage a hedge fund or a private equity firm - your tax rate is then as low as the capital gains tax.
Add workmans comp, payroll services, medicare payments, liabilty insurance, E&O insurance in some cases.
Employees cost much more than they usually understand.
josap..
which means that the billing clerk making around $35k/year ...is actually costing $70k/year if you add all that stuff.
and i thought we were supposed to be business friendly...
oh well the capital owners and their managers own this country,....so i guess we will just stick with 15-20% capital gains tax....and maybe they will trickle down some on us.
Rajesh wrote:
Slight correction: Platforms are documents for the party dumbasses. The insiders ARE insiders because they only care about power. Each party has its nobility (the very smart amoral scum-bags that know EXACTLY what the party is really for) and the true-believer-dumbasses - with the two major (only) Merican parties each having 40-45% of the dumbass population.
would Denmark or Sweden increase or decrease tax revenues if they cut their top tax rates by 3%, that is the key question.
Dirk - I think the key question is what will happen to IRS revenues if the marginal tax rate in the US were to go to, say, 40%. The most likely answer is that the revenues will go up.
Nobody suggests going all the way to 50% in one step. That is a political non-starter.
Also, why do we care about maximizing the tax revenues for Denmark or Sweden?
There are always 2 rates that will produce the same revenue, except for the max point, and generally it makes more sense to use the left hand one than the right hand point.
Even though the Laffer curve is usually drawn symmetrically, I suspect there will be a steep drop after 60-70%. Besides, one has to have a really efficient government to prefer to be on the right hand of the Laffer maximum.
I just checked. I got TomStone's (thx) but not Volker's
Yes techy, about double. You can also add in space rent, utilities, phone, paper, marketing and employee holiday gifts, etc. There are allot of costs to running even a very small business.
Raj,
Re: Investors might keep closer tabs on bank risk if secured claims, such as repurchase agreements, were subject to losses, Bair said today.
“By totally protecting secured claims and many repo claims as nettable financial contracts, the current priority scheme may encourage greater fragility in the financial markets,” she said.
Bair acknowledged that such a move would have drawbacks, such as potentially making it harder or more expensive for banks to finance new lending.
“It could have a major impact on the cost of funding for companies subject to the resolution mechanism,” Bair said.
Make it expensive enough and everybody will be under the table.
liz: I didn't send you one.
I don't know how.
I'm a dumb ass.
Add workmans comp, payroll services, medicare payments, liabilty insurance, E&O insurance in some cases.
I suspect that the health insurance and the pension contribution are the biggest components of the additional costs
That is why so many small businesses don't offer a 401k or insurance. There simply isn't the money to do so.
VtV - Click on the profile link next to the user's name and then click on the Contact tab
No you aren't.
Let's see. . .
techy246 wrote:
Religion is only indirectly destroying the country. 50 years ago, when the peasants understood WHY they were voting Democratic and WHY they needed unions the two primary deities (the mean old-testament one and nice new-testament one) were both in the Democratic party. When the fascists were able to split the peasant's loyalties - using the fear of "THOSE PEOPLE" - the mean deity moved over to the fascist side with the nice deity staying with socialists - WHICH, of course, you'd except as the deity is picked by humans using the same criteria used to pick a politician.
Re: Ms Bair in Istanbul
see: Trial balloon - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
YouTube - Nena- 99luft Balons
off topic:
Health care: i am not sure why nobody wants to address the real issues: expensive and prolonged medical , nursing and pharmacy education....hospitals and HMOs control the whole system such that everything remains expensive.
india is a very good example of private and public health system...alongwith some non profit hospitals.
reason: it costs less than $20-30k to become a doctor...only around 6 years of college education including residency(USA=9 years)...it is fully recognized here in usa.
same thing for nurses and pharmacist etc..
OT: Nate takes his probability game to a polling firm:
FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Strategic Vision Polls Exhibit Unusual Patterns, Possibly Indicating Fraud
A short while ago: He applied basic probability theory to show a high probability that the Iranian elections were fraudulent. (It turns out that humans are very poor random number generators.) Now he seems to have widened his target to a US polling firm.
The probability result is profound: It should be applied far and wide to economic stats to detect fraudulent reporting. (The IRS already uses such statistical methods.)
"People will always invest in housing.....but by simply putting them into a targeted low return system....Reversing all of the subsidies is implicit in the discussion above"
So, to be clear, your proposal is:
This sounds good, except that it favors sending investment dollars into housing versus productive enterprise. It's clear that what our economy needs now is less investment in housing, and more investment in productive enterprises that create tradeable goods and services that we export, or that substitute for imports.
"People in Ohio have always lost the lottery compared to Corona Del Mar- that becomes apparent every November once it snows."
We already know the quality of life upsides and downsides of geographical location. There are good blogs on this. I am referring to the financials of planning for retirement. Those who bought homes in Ohio spent money to have a place to live. Those who bought homes in Corona del Mar ended up winning a lottery prize paid for the people who will foot the bill for cleaning up this bubble - younger buyers and the next generation of taxpayers, and possible savers (if inflation is used as a way to lower debt).
"- the FHA should be 5 to 10% depending on the loan and qualifications."
If the FHA program could be kept within tight bounds, I'd agree. But, even though I've always lived in the most expensive parts of this country, I think it is economically inefficient and grossly unfair to subsidize people who choose to live in expensive areas versus less expensive areas. The FHA limits and eligibility absolutely should not be allowed to vary by geography.
thanks MrM
techy246,
Don't get all warm and fuzzy over patientrenter's addiction to
Here's the real world:
Risk of deflationary collapse greater now than in 2007, Janet Tavakoli
After the greatest Ponzi scheme in the history of the capital markets, we’ve seen history’s greatest fiscal and monetary expansion, but it hasn’t worked. Debt levels of consumers and business exceed the capacity to repay.
...and...
So Fellas, Do We Have Deflation? | zero hedge
"sorry I need comments on this thing too: Religions destroying the country:"
As if our forays into politics wasn't divisive enough for you? I noticed you're a new handle. Did the call for lurkers to become posters enliven you to join in the debate?
++++
MrM, good post on the tax rate comparison and where the taxes need to be drawn from.
++++
JP-Polls are slanted by the agenda of the polling firm? Really! Someone should call the BLS.
I read that after it was linked from Baseline Scenario. The two old quotes that came to mind were:
"Lies, damn lies, and statistics."
"Believe none of what you hear and half of what you see."
You missed one:
"Figures don't lie, but liars figure."
Cliche's.
What would happen if the FDIC continues to hold a negative balance, the Congress plays games with raising the debt limit, and lots of banks fail?
techy246 wrote:
Oh true. Libertarians are clueless. They can't acknowledge a very simple truth. The smart amoral scum-bags will always find each other and form alliances to manipulate the political systems to their own benefit. If I were smart enough (I'm already amoral and a scum-bag) I'd be doing the same thing.
Socialist are the same. They can’t publicly acknowledge that the smart amoral scum-bags ARE the party insiders, which causes duplicitous behavior by the Party nobility. That why fascism is the political system that eventually always wins. The smart amoral fascist scum-bags are respected by their peasants because they are honestly and openly screwing them – and the peasants know they’d do exactly the same thing IF they were smart enough. God, King (nobility), and Country (patriotism) – can’t go wrong with THAT combination.
Welcome, gyre.
Ummm we all lose our "perfectly safe" money.
MrM, I think you and I are on the same page. I posed the question about Denmark because it would add some info on where that revenue max point is and the shape of the curve. I want to know where that point is, because I think we have to get to it for high incomes, but going over it is counter productive and pointlessly punitive. The purpose of a tax is to raise revenue (aside from Pigout effects), so I don't think there is any reason why you would want to be on the right hand side of the curve, even if you thought that everyone in gov't was both a genius and a saint.
Externalized Costs wrote:
But what is interesting about the link: He points out that there is a quantitative measurement to indicate the probability that something is made up.
Being able to publish the mathematical probability that a corporation or polling firm is just making up numbers is something interesting.
politics=religion right now....
how can you escape it...you need to visit all the bible belt states..... A republican always gets elected hands down...no need to think twice they support the belief.
It was not like this before Reagan...dont know what turned people into nuts??
Absolutely.
we're fooked
These things do go in waves.
The non religious go completely amoral, and then the religious
come in to tone this down resulting in the same amount of
amorality, but lots more hypocracy. I am much more tolerant
of hypocracy. Some things are better in a dark closet.
techy246 wrote:
It was "those people". There were ALWAYS nuts. But, they were controlled and balanced and directed by the Democrats toward a useful enemy; the rich. The peasants are now fighting with each other, leaving the rich to destroy their unions (meaning; their power-base and wages) and leaving the nobility lots of free time to loot the country. Which, they are almost done doing.
LL,
Since when is there a connection between morality and religion? Religion talks about morality, but there is no evidence, zero, zilch, that religious people are more moral than non religious people.
I am there with you....(proud to be scum bag and no respect for dogma called as morality and ethics)
If only i can become smart enough to fake religious beleifs...not puke in front of those delusionals who think that the big guy is going to invite them into heaven....i can easily win election in these bible states....and then no looking back, just pretending and kaching year after year.
Dirk - I also think we are aligned. We should just remember that almost everything in economics, and certainly the Laffer curve, is ever-changing and depends on the culture, social traditions, tax tradition, strictness of law enforcement, etc. So trying to estimate where the Laffer maximum is might be nearly impossible, as it will be moving over time. Therefore, I think one should proceed incrementally and measure the impact of relatively small changes.
Hence the comment about hypocracy, which i keep spelling wrong.
Dirk van Dijk wrote:
Who said their was. The true-believers think there is, but the nobility - the people that matter - have NEVER let morals get in the way of a good deal. It IS a good story to control the dumbasses with tho.
I think you overlook the fact that the curve moves as other countries raise and lower their tax rates. The rich are fairly mobile, they can move their wealth where it is least exposed to taxes (which is why so many rich Europeans live--at least legally-- in Monaco.)
I have known some low level cons.
They actually thought I didn't realize they were cons, but it was
never necessary to say or do anything, but just be very very
careful.
They always seem to be sick--much sicker than one would expect
from their age, etc.
I think lying to yourself takes a mental and physical toll.
Not true, but thanks for perpetuating the stereotype.
lawyerliz wrote:
How do you explain politicians?
Uh-oh, back to religion!!
I would join a religion immediately, if it was demonstrable that
it made me better in some way.
I think religion makes some people more peaceful inside.
Not me, there's that truth thing.
TJ, they just lie to everyone else, not to themselves
Rajesh wrote:
This has been the mantra for decades. My response: let them move (and require loss of US citizenship). Good riddance. They also shouldn''t be allowed to move their money without moving their ass. And no reverse moves allowed. I can live without Henry Paulson and be a very happy guy.
They aren't lying to themselves, only everybody else!!
Also there are psychopaths, who aren't really human, in
that they don't have a moral framework in their heads.
Dirk == Liz!!!!!
lawyerliz wrote:
That's the difference though between a TRUE noble and a con. If you are smart AMORAL and a scum-bag - when you are screwing people - you are NOT lying to anybody. You are just (say) level-setting the table-steaks and orchestrating your core-competencies in a going-forward strategic space. A TRUE noble is AMORAL not IMMORAL, big big difference. Ken Lewis does NOT lie when he says the banking system is healthier than ever.
What's doing at the Shrub's digs in Paraguay?
I took to religion like I did school. Didn't stick but do respect others freedom to practice as they wish. I don't hate the Scouts or the country clubbers either.
I bet you think the employer pays for half of SS and Medicare also.
They can't write a clear English sentence either.
Fraud, especially white collar defendants, are the worse clients. They refuse to believe what they did was wrong.
lawyerliz wrote:
The lucky AMORAL people. The ones who run all societies and always have. History is peasant dumbasses following psychopaths to oblivion.
The thing about religion is that it is about questions about which no rational person can really be certian, but demands absolute certianty, thus people kill and are willing to be killed over it. Arithmetic is about questions that are just as important, but people can be certian about the answer, thus people dont fight over it.
Personally I fall in the agnotic/deist camp. I admire the order, and inherent simplicity of the universe, not a lot of terms in Newtons laws of gravity, or in E= mc^2, which does suggest to me some intellegence in the universe, but it is a long way from that step to thinking who ever wrote those laws really cares about what I have for lunch or where I decide to put my penis
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
Yep, it is ALL tax deductible for the corps. What shows as profit/loss for the SEC is way above what is reported to the IRS. The taxpayers pay for all biz expenses in reduced taxes.
i find religion fascinating.
Useful in some ways.
A good start.
Just not true.
There is a notion in science called the fruitful error.
This causes you to look at things a different way, which
causes new insights even tho the error is, indeed, an
error.
Religion is no longer a fruitful error. Thought is frozen.
nova wrote:
They DIDN'T do anything wrong. All they did was screw people. What's wrong with THAT? That's what capitalism IS. Upper management screws the stock-holders, middle-management is screwing labor and the customers, proving to upper-management they deserve a shot at the stock-holders. That's why the capitalism WORKS so well. It's the natural human system.
Liz, are you saying that Noah's kids didn't play with dinosaurs? Heresy!
The order of the universe is default order, not the order of someone
planning to build a car, or a housewife deciding that all the canned
soup would be handy to have in the same place.
"Being able to publish the mathematical probability that a corporation or polling firm is just making up numbers is something interesting."
Agreed but do you see that being explained or challenged by anyone that reports the number from any polling business? They are businesses with overhead and the need to satisfy the people paying for their service. A comparison can be made to the rating agencies and the trap they fell into in the need to generate income and the knowledge that someone else would rate the crap AAA.
My cynical side tells me that Strategic Vision LLC was created to not only provide polling "data" of a certain spin but also to compromise the long time trusted polling businesses i.e.
* American Research Group
* The Gallup Poll
* Mason-Dixon
* Quinnipiac University Polling Institute
* Rasmussen Reports
* Research 2000
* SurveyUSA
* Zogby
Does anyone even pay attention to the small print that tells you what polling company provided the data quoted?
JimPortlandOR wrote:
She must be a witch!
Jim,
Ever explore the employee unit cost? The employee produced the wealth that all expense have to be accounted for. Employer pays nothing, it is just an accounting scam on the employee. Next you can tell me that in a real estate sale the seller pays the Realtor commission.
Externalized Costs wrote:
Nate looks positioned to make a career of it. So not so much in the past, but perhaps in the future.
To expand a bit, if someone thinks that an invisible man will provide for a better afterlife for them, well more power to them, but there thoughts on their afterlife should have no role in how I decide to live my life. When religion enters politics, it means that people are using their thoughts of the afterlife to influence my life.
Some things can be argued on a religious basis, but people should also be able to defend them on a secular basis. Yes, thou shall not Kill is a relgious argument against murder, but it is easy to make a secular case against allowing murder, which is more than sufficent.
That being said, Jesus, at least how he is portrayed in the 4 gospels, is a very interesting and worthwhile moral philosopher, and I honor him because he was wise, not because he was the son of god.
JP wrote:
No, worse... a lawyer.
aside from the philosopy.
I debated with two of my religious colleagues...who are professionals very well educated. and they said that there are something for which they will give life and take life. (i took the gay right issue and gave them an option where i will not give the gays right to adopt..but simply employer and tax benefits....no slippery slope thing...everything tightly sealed)
did they really mean it...or it was just foolhardy jingoism...(empty threat...since they are upset that their view is getting proven wrong??)
I am really not able to figure out what makes them so unreasonable...and willing to sacrifice the future of their kids??
That being said, Jesus, at least how he is portrayed in the 4 gospels, is a very interesting and worthwhile moral philosopher, and I honor him because he was wise, not because he was the son of god.
Carefully selected 4 out of dozens of gospels
MrM wrote:
Carefully selected - by the insiders - 4 out of a dozen gospels. But, I'm SURE insiders then weren't the smartest AMORAL scum-bags - like they are now tho. Things were different then.
there are some who would say I was a witchy lawyer.
But they aren't right. Naaahhh.
Hmmm, doesn't the bible say do not suffer a witch to live?
I've read a few of those alternative Gospels, and they are inferior to the
traditional 4 in readability. Seem to have more nonsense.
I'm sure they are very useful to scholars.
Course I didn't have anybody carefully explaining what it really meant.
Where is Pavel when you need him so much?
lawyerliz wrote:
That's the same part that told you not to each shrimp. This has been selectively ignored for the good of Red Lobster.
MrM. good point, also note that Relavations is not in the Orthodox Bible, and that is the book that probably gives rise to more craziness than any other in it. Also from a structural point of view, always looks like a crazy apendix to the book.
A Yankee fan for sure.
lawyerliz wrote:
Like my mom in the '30s. 13 years old, kicked out of the house, mother's helper jobs for basically what you describe and a few bucks a month.
You'll feel in control of your life, and you'll wonder why other people aren't in control of theirs. That's how her employers felt; among them a doctor and a lawyer, the ag town elite.
She used to tell a story about eating dinner at the table with the doctor's family. For dinner they served her exactly what they ate, in the same portions. The thing was, none of them did hard labor and my mother cleaned and did heavy chores all day. She started to starve. She broke into the fridge one night and ate a small cake of what appeared to be deviled ham. The next morning, the lady of the house -- somewhat puzzled -- asked the household at large what the devil had happened to the dog food.
My mother broke down and confessed; and to their credit the family didn't fire her, but started giving her larger portions. Abject fear of starving and homelessnes, powerlessness, cluelessness of the the part of the secure elite -- that's what you'd be a part of. And may be.
No personal offense or hard feelings, Liz. I just heard that story too many times.
My son had a roommate who is Catholic and they were
arguing and my son backed him into a corner, and they
guy sez. . . .wait for it. . .it's a mystery.
Now most of the universe is, I concede a mystery. But when
you back someone into a logical corner, saying that is a
mystery is cheating. . .which is, I do believe, a sin.
I told him they did this. He didn't believe me, he thought
I was just being anti religious. He marvelled--they
really do this. Yep, I said, they do.
I've read a few of those alternative Gospels, and they are inferior to the
traditional 4 in readability. Seem to have more nonsense.
Those alternative gospels have not benefited from centuries of polishing by numerous authors (I assume you did not compare to the canonical 4 as they were originally written in a mixture of ancient Greek and Aramaic but to the modern translation into English).
I'm surprised it took this long for someone to jump on me.
But in the middle ages, having enough to eat and a blanket
on the floor in a safe place put you above a whole lot of people.
They just didn't realize what they were doing, food wise to your mom.
And this was semi snark. I hope it never comes to that.
Of course. Each of those polishings was dictated by you-know-who.
I knew that Voldermort was behind all of that!
And if you've read my posts you know I might misbehave, but I'd never
starve anyone!!! I am more guilty of pushing unwanted food on them.
I'd rather learn what everyone had for lunch than suffer yet another round of what passes for religious discussion hereabouts...just sayin'
Yeah, odd how a "Failed Banks and the DIF" thread went all religious, isn't it.
energyecon wrote:
I was getting ready to shout "transit!" in a crowded church just to change the subject.
Well it seems to be an endless series of restatements of positions long held and previously expressed...repeatedly...though we all have our compulsions so I am loathe to criticize, hence the lunch call lol
lolz! that cracked me up Dawg
slow news day, plus nobody around to put up a passionate defense of religion
...
Ahaha, and realize that wherever they move to, you know what they'll find? A bunch of other rich people, crowding them out! Suddenly, you don't feel so rich when you've moved to the same tax haven as most the rest of the planet. We'll have our social justice and equality, and they'll have what they deserve, a bunch of people just like them.
Though the Chinese just might get their consumerism groove on if their militia uniforms are any indication...
.
Red Miniskirts Eclipse Mao Jackets at China Bash: William Pesek
Commentary by William Pesek
Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Among all the wildly photogenic moments in Beijing, the red miniskirts were a standout from the missiles, the tanks and the giant fish.
The legions of female militia clad in minis, white jackboots and submachine guns last week seemed especially incongruous under Mao Zedong’s gaze. His portrait, which hangs over Tiananmen Square, can make one feel like it’s Oct. 1, 1949. It was then and there that he declared victory in a civil war.
Red Miniskirts Eclipse Mao Jackets at China Bash: William Pesek - Bloomberg.com
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
Golgafrincham Ark Ship 'B."
Dawg,
Is your Wrightwood dacha at risk?
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
But, they don't have to physically move just to move their wealth. Merica has THE most loyal and docile peasants in the world. Plus, most REAL Merican peasant worship their betters. If I were wealthy enough, I'd move the wealth off-shore and keep my citizenship (purchase a politician or two) and phyiscally live wherever the tomatoes were growing.
"An American polity blinded by rage"
FT
FT.com / Columnists / Clive Crook - An American polity blinded by rage
The local Porsche dealership in Fremont,ca seems to be hitting hard times. Back lot is empty. Front used to be used and new porsches.
Now it's a few used, a few new and a bunch of used BMW as well as a few used toyotas. Doesn't seem to be long for this world. In fact all the dealerships here seemed to be pretty dead from high end all the way down to lower end.
patientrenter wrote:
Those damn welfare queens, stealing our hard earned tax money. And who keeps make excuses for THESE PEOPLE? Huh?! YOU FIGURE IT OUT!!
Most definitely they are. Text from neighboring friends:
Live feed: http://abclocal.go.com/kabc/livenow?id=7047223
Do people who blame religion realize they are using it as a crutch also ?
The Fault Lies Not in Our Stars but in Ourselves | Sense on Cents
80% of this country is christians....is there any surprise that 35% of them refuse to accept the constitution over the bible?
Just because people are christians, doesn't mean they're creationists or crazy (in other ways) or favor mixing religion & the state. Austria has a state religion: it is Catholicism. However, I haven't noticed Austria having the same issues the US has had w/evangelistic fundies who think seem to think a capitalist theocracy is somehow mandated by whatever version or translation of the Bible their group happens to use.
Prior to WWII, some of the people who laid their lives & freedom (from prison/concentration camp) on the line to help Jews escape or hide were Lutherans or Catholics. They did so in part because of their religious beliefs.
I am not a religious person myself and I have to stop myself from saying the same thing about "christians" that you have. But they are not all alike, and some "christians" strongly favor the separation of church & state, and some walk their talk. Ditto for Jews, Buddhists, etc.
Libertarianism has seemed to me like a belief system for dreamers, it seems almost an almost Panglossian belief system.
That's what I feared. Hopefully you have good insurance!
"An American polity blinded by rage"
FT
FT.com / Columnists / Clive Crook - An American polity blinded by rage
This article is insipid.
azurite wrote:
Very true. In fact, if you look at the union movement in the early 20th century, civil-rights movement, early environmentalism, all strongly influenced by the "nice deity" Christians. The problems started happening when the "mean deity" Christians got their own Party to play with. Been downhill ever sense. The "nice deity" Christians have let the "mean deity" Christians kidnap their "common" deity.
S&P 500 P/E 71.22
This time last year 21.40
Div Yield 2.45
Div yield last year 2.75
By the time any of the ones that concern me burn $100 millions worth of other houses will have burned first. I don't see how they'll save a few of the outlying streets.
"Just because people are Christians, doesn't mean they're creationists"
ummm many people would disagree with that point.
lawyerliz wrote:
Oh, Liz, worry not. I know.
My real point was that the folks who paid my mom oh, $10 a month and room and board were beneficiaries of a system that was doing quite well by them; didn't quite sink in it wasn't working for millions of others. They probably thought they were doing my mom a good turn, and they were.
But... I just got the monthly newsletter from the local foodbank. I dropped them some money earlier in the year and now they're my new best friends. I took a look down the list of board members and directors: ag people/growers; car wash owners; landscape firm owners; amusement park/tourist attraction owners; and bankers. Lots and lots of bankers.
These are all the people who benefit from a low-income workforce, and the people who help them fund their businesses. The service industry is huge here. But it's seasonal; and doesn't pay much. so out of the goodness of their hearts, the people who benefit from low-income labor that doesn't support the workers year round -- not so much that they don't need food assistance -- have put together a charity to put a bandaid on the economic system so it can go on. Oh, I'm sure they feel they're doing a good thing; and they are. But it also benefits them. And the more people like me they can con into coming on board with donations, the more their system is supported.
Sorry for the rant, but it's Sunday, I'm sick, and I'm one of the non-crazy Christians. The kind that believes you walk the walk or it's all just a prosperity ministry with nice rituals. I will keep giving to the food bank; they do serve a lot of people who are starving, now more than ever.
But that's not all they serve.
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
It IS Clive. Another Englishman living vicariously through the "kick-ass" Republican party fantasy. FT needs to get out into the "heartland" a bit more.
TJ and The Bear wrote:
Is it weird? I mean there must be a lot of true believers out there whose faith in the FDIC insurance is strong. Otherwise none of those banks on the "troubled bank list" would have any deposits...
how can you not have faith loaning USD to the person who has printing press for USD.....he will always return your loand with interest....just give him enough time to send the electrons.
hallelujah!!! thank you Energycon....
Wars are byproducts of religion...
techy,
Beat me to it... I was going to cite how "fiat" is one of the greatest forms of faith.
Rob,
Oh, I forgot... you owned but sold, right? I know you still go up there regularly, which threw me off.
Sold all my income property at the tippy top of the market. When the smoke clears I'll buy back 3-4x as much. rinse and repeat. For now, just personal use property at risk.
I am doing a research on the health of all 8000 banks in US and will post an analysis soon. Do subscirbe to the site at Investing Contrarian
Investing Contrarian is updated:
I think the bottomline is dollar is forcefully and structurally being devalued.
Fresbee
GA Alpha Fund
Investing Contrarian