CR, I have to go with the family to the store(s). I justed wanted to tell you, if no one else has today, that you are a precious and unique person. I love you.
Population growth will probably decline as we attract fewer immigrants due to a poor economy and as families become more careful about additions (though that is usually a small effect.)
if the homeownership rate stays steady, the demand for net additional homeowner occupied units would fall back to 800K or so per year (assuming steady population growth and persons per household).
...
It appears the rate is declining at about 0.5% per year. This means the net demand for owner occupied units would be 833K minus about 500K per year or about 333K per year - about 25% of the net demand for owner occupied units for the period 1995 to 2005.
CR - Don't you think that because of the weak labor market, the average number of people per household would increase, as jobless kids stay with their parents, couples cannot afford divorce, etc? This would be another factor driving down demand for homes.
we are still getting some nice weather here in SoCal
Yeah, it's been absolutely beautiful the last couple days, a little hot prior days. Makes you forget that the world's going to heck, at least for a little while...
"and as families become more careful about additions"
the whole reason I'm ridiculously bullish about the 2025-2030 period is because that's when the recent boom will be coming into the job market, just as joe boomer is expiring and taking much of his entitlements (hopefully) to the grave.
The decline in average household size has been a consistent macro trend as old as growing homeownership, and Dawg & I have both been kindly prodding CR with the idea that both trends have been reversed for years to come. Many "authorities" -- including Bubbles Greenspan -- have stated that 64% is the natural rate; IMHO it will at least revert to there, if not further.
Re: Dawg's Camarillo house: it might make a good rennaisance museum, in italy. I think the street is misnamed however - it should have been Pretension Lane.
I see significant value from having it rezoned as a mental care facility.
German home ownership rates in 2007 were the lowest in the EU, at 42 percent in the former West Germany and 35 percent in the former East Germany — and only 12 percent in Berlin, the largest city.
The problem is not home ownership per se. Just look at the coming train wreck in multi-family housing CMBS. When banks make bad loans, it doesn't matter if it is to an occupant or to a landlord. In the U.S., the residential loans get a lot of coverage but the bad loans for office buildings, warehouses, retail, etc, are just as much of a problem.
Really nice framework for predicting future housing demand ... the future seems clear.
And though I don't know how large a segment, I'm sure 2nd homeownership trends move in the same direction ( a wind at the back for builders during the boom, and another headwind during the bust).
I was thinking about the euro comparison just as you posted.
Why would anyone want a 30 yr committment on any real estate with so much uncertainty in the air, particularly on the downside on value of res. and comm. prop. Jobs, dollar value, debt levels, flakey financial institutions, obscure gov't policies......
I like the idea of a one year mortgage - I think it is called a lease. Resetable each year.
Maybe the US needs some kind of lease/mortgage combo in wide use. Sign a lease, get some % carried over as virtual downpayment if you stay long enough to get to, say, 20% of the value (at the future time), in which case it becomes a mortgage.
Maybe the US needs some kind of lease/mortgage combo in wide use. Sign a lease, get some % carried over as virtual downpayment if you stay long enough to get to, say, 20% of the value (at the future time), in which case it becomes a mortgage.
Find a motivated seller and do a lease with option to buy and some credit for payments made.
in wide use, i meant this was a very normal thing promoted by all the usual suspects. lease with option is now so marginal that owners don't want to be outliers. Maybe the owners have to be local banks, or the government. Securitization would surely not lead to wide adoption.
We need a new normal that accounts for mortages not likely being vehicles for asset growth in years/decades ahead. If a house is just a house that needs maintenance/care, and prices don't appreciate higher than inflation, then the old regime (1970-2005) won't work.
We could do it asian style: bunkrooms and showers for the workers. cafeterias too. the lower cost to workers could allow for wage adjustment to 3rd world standards too, making us 'competitive" Outsourcing to Detroit!
How will people living in their offices be counted? A special hybrid type of renter? Can an office be a "household" too?
Good question. There are officially live/work spaces in these parts, and I imagine they would be residences. And then there are the unofficials. Where it's not zoned or officially permitted in the lease but the landlord doesn't care and Mr.Ms. Single Entrepreneur sees a way to improve his/her cashflow.
The more slump in CRE, the more I see landlords not caring. Those won't count as households. I've seen a few of these over the years, too, mainly artists and artisans.
Even more cost-effective: submarine style bunkrooms - hot beds. each shift gets a pre-warmed (by previous shift) bed.
David Brinkley wrote a great book about Washington during the WWII years; some of the scuzzier landlords offered that kind of deal. It occurred to some degree in most housing-short cities near defense plants. But I don't see that happening this time around.
"live/work" has been a real gold mine for conversion of abandoned industrial space in wealthier parts of CA... but I can't imagine that lenders are too excited about it these days
Another historical method of housing workers: the railroad construction crew train. bunk cars, collective kitchens, rapid build/tear down bars and whorehouses (some of which became cities with 'law n order'). Run them on commuter lines, or use buses in suburbs, exurbs.
Barracks life is not so bad, although I admit that having a private room (as a NCO) was better than 50 guys in two-layer bunk beds on one big floor. Easy to clean though. Downside was the nearly continuous sounds of creaking beds from young horny masturbators.
I should add: odor control from intestinal gas can be an issue....
I've telecommuted for over a year on a couple occasions -- loved it. Of course, I was also project and not time-oriented, which really made it cool. I could hit the beach on a weekday and make up for it on a weekend night, for example.
Late to the party. I missed the christmas thread but I have to share this. Christmas conversations with my son.
Last year while picking the boy up from school the Guidance counselor pulled me into her office and said she was concerned and needed to talk to me about a conversation she had with my son that day.
Son: I heard that Santa brings coal to bad boys, is that true?
Her: Yes, I heard that so be good!
Son: Well, I really hope Santa brings me coal this year.
Her: You want coal? Why!?
Son: So I can give it to my mommy. Then she can burn it and keep us warm. We have no heat and I have lots of blankets but I get soooooo cold. (insert pathetic look here)
So she looks at me and says if you need help we have numbers you can call and we can help however we can blah blah blah
And I reply no, we have heat, i just keep it down around 68 to save on the bill. I did not know he was so cold I will bump it up.
If so much of my work did not show up in the mail, I would never go in. And I sure don't want tenants knowing where I live. oh well. Was able to rent nice office space less than 5 miles from home.
rsj, are you going to explain things to your son? Show him where the T-stat is and how it works? Kid probably thinks you will all be starving next week.
Kids have such limited experiance, hard to know how they come to some of the conclusions they do.
Wall Street Journal’s Scott Patterson writes that we won’t get inflation until unemployment is down below 5%.
...and...
(Note: hyperinflation is obviously an entirely different animal. For example, there was rampant unemployment in the Weimar Republic during its bout with hyperinflation ).
Everyone should read that last article I linked. It does a pretty good job of bringing together a lot of the information upon which I've based my depression call.
Your kid is an absolute sweetheart, but you need to teach him that 68+ is really not that cold. Also, there are other ways of keeping warm in winter than central heating. Kotatsu - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia is one example.
"David Brinkley wrote a great book about Washington during the WWII years; some of the scuzzier landlords offered that kind of deal. It occurred to some degree in most housing-short cities near defense plants. But I don't see that happening this time around."
this has already been going in the Oakland, ca area since atleast the early 2000s
you can rent in some of the poorer areas for 8 hour stretches. People go there to sleep and spend the rest of the time out and/or working. It leaves more money to send home to the family.
the distinction needs to be made between inflation and devaluation. i don't think anyone visualizes inflation being pushed through via wages - it is more a matter of a global flight from the greenback causing commodity inflation while wages (and housing prices) are almost entirely left behind.
Entirely correct, although many at CR and elsewhere still seem to be confused on that point -- especially those thinking that housing prices will rise due to inflation (or even hyperinflation, where again the Weimar experience has proven otherwise).
Hyperinflation is a political, not monetary phenomenon. That isn't to say it won't ever happen here. Just not at this point. We are still far from a failed state.
_extending enhanced unemployment-insurance benefits beyond Dec. 31, when they are set to expire.
_extending a tax credit for laid-off workers who buy health insurance through the COBRA program. That program allows workers to keep their company's health insurance plan for 18 months after they leave their job, if they pay the premiums.
_extending a tax credit for first-time home buyers. This credit also is set to expire soon
How does extending the FTHB credit help "laid off workers"?
it will be very easy to do such for the small minority of people with globally fungible skills. the worst-off will be those dependent on a pension or SS. i suppose that's the silver lining.
Ah, political forces now are calling for a reduction in Fed powers and a notable backlash against deficit spending and additional monetization seems to be developing, IMHO. This has been Bernanke's false assumption from the start; he thought he could do unlimited heli-drops to stave off deflation, never took political backlash into account. Further stimuli or significant printing is going to be difficult. The Fed operates in a political vacuum until it doesn't.
standard way of slipping political hot potatoes into a budget. Slip it into a bill on military spending or unemployment benefits.
Yes - that doesn't make it any more palatable does it?
Josap I explained. I also told him to let me know if he s cold. He is underweight and has almost no body fat so what is comfy for others may not be for him. He knows now to speak up and his older sister bought him an electric blanket for christmas that year.
This years conversation was great. He has steadily been letting me know what he wants from santa. All clone war items. I told him he needed to narrow it down because santa may be on a bit of a budget this year and he looks at me and says "But mom, it is magic and elves, what budget would SANTA need?"9 yrs old now and still atrue believer
Then I said welllll boy due to poor risk management and forecasting they leveraged too far too fast and now with their suppliers crashing and just-in-time inventory aint working so hot...wellll i think Santa and his elves are going to be tightening up a bit.
Was the settlement under the bridge for the former
sex offenders just one household or many? (They are
supposed to be moving them, but I never heard how it
turned out.)
I always wondered about the push to increase home ownership. When I was a kid, my parents rented until I was in the 5th grade. Especially since the home ATM is wiped out, isn't renting better.
Ha. This year I will likely "buy" property in the Philippines - my wife's home country. As non-citizens we can only own 49% but we can get around that as she still has brothers/sisters there. If things get bad enough I will watch the collapse from afar.
Raj--It's called an Agreement for Deed and is a primitive form of
purchase, with lots of potential opportunity for screw ups, for
example if your seller gets a judgment against him or her.
It is legal though.
the whole reason I'm ridiculously bullish about the 2025-2030 period is because that's when the recent boom will be coming into the job market, just as joe boomer is expiring and taking much of his entitlements (hopefully) to the grave.
The funny people are those who think it will be easier to pay off a devalued debt in the ensuing economy that comes with the devaluation.
You can pay it off in devalued money fairly easily... once... its the roll-over & new debt that becomes impossible to obtain UNLESS tied to a 'hard currency'. If we devalue its just one more route to involuntary 'pay-go'...
If you make an option long enough you can do something like that.
And as time goes by, you can provide that you will not be able to foreclose
until 90 or 120 or whatever you choose days after default.
On a mortgage you can make the first payment 6 months or a year after
purchase (done privately sometimes with sales of business). Or you can give
a longer time period after default.
It's all really quite flexible, and I've done all of it. Just
not with institutional lenders whose ideas are frozen and
were frozen long before the credit market was.
Including one where I held money in escrow for 5 years to make sure that
the Buyer paid the first mtg he was assuming for at least that long. It worked
out and the money was given back.
In Florida, just Florida mind you, if you do not go for a deficiency judgment within
5 years after default (as defined by a nasty pay-up letter.) you are barred by the
Statute of Limitations.
So all those HELOCS and 2nds currently being ignored, will go away if
the borrower comes to some sort of accomodation with the first lender.
I have an official offer that starts on Oct 12th.
Six months, good chance to last over a year.
About 10-15% less money but I don't have to travel.
It's doing new technology associated with a previous project I spec'ed.
One disturbing trend of the past three years is that the Indians consistently respect me more than Americans. In other words, they look at my resume objectively in terms of accomplishing the mission instead of covering their own ass and career path.
We are already well along the path of turning small/medium businesses in pay-go enterprises. That ain't working out so well.
In the case of housing debt the real swindle will be the creation of two classes of renter; ownerrenters and renterrenters and little difference twixt the two as I see the asset acquisition part becoming a minor consideration as taxes, utilities and such are certainly going to far outpace any currency devaluation gains.
You know, it's going to be interesting to see how this works out: As fewer and fewer imagine that they have ownership stakes.
Good for labor mobility, but not sure how this will work out for communities.
Of course, most of the new communities were not all that they were cracked up to be, but I have recently seen neighborhood watch and community organizing in a new development. High turnover should have an impact on that.
re: Last Thread, Retail Sales.
Flat sales are what I've been expecting. That would make 3 years in a row of 'bad' sales. If flat sales come to pass, expect more hemorrhaging of both jobs and CRE. Contrary to the opinion of Stephanie Rosenbloom, the article's author, flat sales will not make retailers ecstatic. It's more of a death blow in an industry where profits are highly seasonal. Which she would have known if she had talked to more than a retail analyst at Nielsen. There should be a greater variance between smaller and larger retailers for a few reasons. Larger retailers may have been able to access buoyant credit markets directly, hedge against a USD decline between purchase and sale (many retail goods are imported), and have a more comprehensive of national sales from their own data.
re: This thread,
I'm not so sure the homeownership rate remaining stable is a good assumption. I think what will happen is a contraction in average household size, while the renting and ownership markets battle their way down to lower prices because neither can absorb the surplus inventory. One elephant in the room is the ability to continue funding mortgages below cost. In an environment where the IMF is asking the UK to cut the NHS to reduce its deficit, do you think FNM/FRE/FHLB/FHA can sustain themselves for the next 10 years even? Housing needs to become relatively more expensive (not talking about the sticker price, but the cost of housing/maintenance/taxes minus capital appreciation on a monthly basis, otherwise the market is just mining inventory which is unhealthy over the long term).
.
I think 4-7mn foreclosures is now the baseline projection using current data. I'll refer to the September 30th David Rosenberg letter
Moreover, the supply data have been distorted in part because of all the inventory
that has been held off the market on bank balance sheets, but this cannot last
forever. Estimates we have seen, peg the “shadow” inventory at 7 million housing
units — those in foreclosure, those just entering the process, and those that have
been in arrears for the past year but have yet to receive a notice. Tack these on to
the “official” unsold inventory count of 3.6 million and what we are talking about is
an overhang equivalent to 25 months’ supply. It is truly hard to believe that home
prices are doing anything more than a wiggle right now in a long-term downtrend; a
wiggle, mind you, that has come courtesy of unprecedented government support.
Instead of thinking that large household sizes in California will come down to meet the rest of America, I think the rest of America will meet California's large household sizes. Housing is becoming less expensive in the sense of purchase price. It's becoming more expensive in the measure relevant to most households' though. Capital appreciation no longer pays for costs of shelter, and then some. Instead, maintaining capital value will be a challenge and taxes will rise. (I use household size in the sense of # of people living in each house)
However I'm not adamant on these issues because there remains to be resolution for household incomes, USD value, costs for materials and energy, and Federal housing ownership subsidies among others. It just seems to me that an ownership rate of 60% is more appropriate than 65% at this juncture. Before this is over the conventional wisdom might flip to it's always better to rent than to own.
In the competitive devaluation race, so far the U.S. is winning. But it is early in the race and the real cheating has yet to begin.
And the winner will be the most desperate.
The thing is how long does Chindia want to ship the US stuff for FREE... because the unsustainable CAD is why we need to 'devalue' - not the existing debt. Every new container unloaded at LA or tanker at the Gulf Terminal... is more that won't be paid off at current valuations. They have to get that - yes/no? At some point they'd want something valuable [like grain or products] you'd think. Instead they gt promises of dollars.
Undoubtedly.
I'll be back over in Seattle with my gf.
And it's new stuff that I couldn't quite get my hands on in 2007.
I'm not sure the attitude of the Indians is tied to a visa.
I think a lot of it is cultural / Gandhi-based.
They grasp certain things about social distribution of work that Americans just don't get because they're so conditioned with this "survival of the fittest" stuff. It would be nice if it could somehow all work in a consistent ethical structure but people being what they are...
so the path is low-level corruption & make work instead of straight-up 32/hr workweek.
It's been happening for years in IT.
he's trying to drag the Loonie into the conversation of fiat instability WRT imports. The funny wrinkle is the amount of oil coming into the US from Canada.
Hi dryfly - What are your views on American exports as a driver of recovery this time around?
People talk a lot about devaluation of USD, labor cost differentials - but there is not much discussion about which sectors could generate growth substantial enough to affect GDP growth rates (meaning growing by a hundred of billions of dollars or so)
We on this board had a discussion the other day whether the lights-out manufacturing could be such a driver, but did not have facts to lean on.
You would think that the Chinese would want something valuable for their hard work, but the evidence is clear that they like the electrons they are accumulating in the Federal Reserve computers. I hope they have a good backup data storage solution. I would hate to lose track of how many Treasury bonds the Chinese central banks owns.
lawyerliz,
I believe dryfly was referring to the Current Account deficit. The current account is Trade + Net Income from ownership of foreign investments + Net transfers in general. It's balancing the global chequebook (all transactions but the big money/long term ones that go under the capital account)
CAD also stands for Computer Aided Design, Canadian Dollar, and can be used as a noun: a man who behaves dishonorably, esp. toward a woman
EHP;
"Retail Sales....Flat sales are what I've been expecting. That would make 3 years in a row of 'bad' sales. "
Consider discounting. I needed to buy some new walking shoes today. So I drove past a big mall advertising "Sports Liquidation" with big banners and sign spinners out, and went in to take a look. Turns out it was a temporary Reebok outlet (not advertised as such), about 25,000 sqft of merchandise that they decided to dump. Double markdowns, net result was $85 shoes selling for $29. Including the Rockport line, which I did not know was owned by ReeBok.
So they are basically undercutting their retailers.
sm_landlord,
wow. You also brought up another point, not only are sales/revenues down but the gross profit margins are down because that's what is selling.
Hi dryfly - What are your views on American exports as a driver of recovery this time around?
:: ::
Won't be - pure and simple. But a reduction of imports comparable in magnitude to our exports so that CAD balances... is going to have to be a part of any recovery - unless the 'merchantilists' continue to give it away for free. They done it a long time - suppose they can continue. Then they shouldn't complain about what the get in return - dollars.
Gosh
Gosh?
Bristol Chicken,
Sorry to hear about your company's shake-up Friday. Who do you work for? (If you don't mind saying)
Thanks, CR. A very thoughtful presentation.
A sheer luck first!!!
Was talking to my son about his women problems.
(He doesn't understand them either, as girlfriends), so
not checking things out here.
Now he's hitting golf balls in the front yard with the dadster.
Some mean person locked me out. But, oh jealous one, only I
was first.
CR, I have to go with the family to the store(s). I justed wanted to tell you, if no one else has today, that you are a precious and unique person. I love you.
Population growth will probably decline as we attract fewer immigrants due to a poor economy and as families become more careful about additions (though that is usually a small effect.)
lawyerliz wrote:
Bask in it, Liz. Bask in it.
And still all you can say on that momentous occasion was "Gosh"?
TJ from the prior thread. That was a very depressing artical.
Thanks all. I hope everyone is enjoying the weekend. ... we are still getting some nice weather here in SoCal.
best to all
if the homeownership rate stays steady, the demand for net additional homeowner occupied units would fall back to 800K or so per year (assuming steady population growth and persons per household).
...
It appears the rate is declining at about 0.5% per year. This means the net demand for owner occupied units would be 833K minus about 500K per year or about 333K per year - about 25% of the net demand for owner occupied units for the period 1995 to 2005.
CR - Don't you think that because of the weak labor market, the average number of people per household would increase, as jobless kids stay with their parents, couples cannot afford divorce, etc? This would be another factor driving down demand for homes.
we are still getting some nice weather here in SoCal
Yeah, it's been absolutely beautiful the last couple days, a little hot prior days. Makes you forget that the world's going to heck, at least for a little while...
nice one CR. let's see how long it takes for a snarkier poster to comment on the definition of 'owner'...
My new neighbor is a Kung Fu Sifu. I think I can take him.
"and as families become more careful about additions"
the whole reason I'm ridiculously bullish about the 2025-2030 period is because that's when the recent boom will be coming into the job market, just as joe boomer is expiring and taking much of his entitlements (hopefully) to the grave.
MrM,
The decline in average household size has been a consistent macro trend as old as growing homeownership, and Dawg & I have both been kindly prodding CR with the idea that both trends have been reversed for years to come. Many "authorities" -- including Bubbles Greenspan -- have stated that 64% is the natural rate; IMHO it will at least revert to there, if not further.
The retirement age for late boomers is 67 under current law. That means the last boomer will be eligible for full social security in 2027.
Well, since you locked me out, I couldn't say anything more!!
Well, since my mom came to live with us, that's minus one.
I get locked out when there is a
as well.
I doubt average household size will ever drop below 1.0, but I've been wrong lots of times.
Ah, too afraid you'd miss the opportunity so you only ventured one word.
For the rest of us, that word is usually NEMO!!!
LOL!!!
That house Dawg posted, well, I thought, that is worthy of 2 million, assuming it is
in a neighborhood of equivalent houses.
Then I saw it. Offers have to have lender approval.
REO.
isn't Germany's much lower? and isn't this a huge part of why they are significantly less screwed than us and the brits (DB et al hanky-panky aside)?
lawyerliz wrote:
Yeah, but only a $3 deposit.
Re: Dawg's Camarillo house: it might make a good rennaisance museum, in italy. I think the street is misnamed however - it should have been Pretension Lane.
I see significant value from having it rezoned as a mental care facility.
TJ - I agree. Major trends tend to overshoot, so we may very well go below 64%.
Free Article for Non-Members | STRATFOR
German home ownership rates in 2007 were the lowest in the EU, at 42 percent in the former West Germany and 35 percent in the former East Germany — and only 12 percent in Berlin, the largest city.
I doubt average household size will ever drop below 1.0
Vacation homes for everyone!
We have gone from owning our homes to being owned by them.
The problem is not home ownership per se. Just look at the coming train wreck in multi-family housing CMBS. When banks make bad loans, it doesn't matter if it is to an occupant or to a landlord. In the U.S., the residential loans get a lot of coverage but the bad loans for office buildings, warehouses, retail, etc, are just as much of a problem.
Really nice framework for predicting future housing demand ... the future seems clear.
And though I don't know how large a segment, I'm sure 2nd homeownership trends move in the same direction ( a wind at the back for builders during the boom, and another headwind during the bust).
TJ:
I was thinking about the euro comparison just as you posted.
Why would anyone want a 30 yr committment on any real estate with so much uncertainty in the air, particularly on the downside on value of res. and comm. prop. Jobs, dollar value, debt levels, flakey financial institutions, obscure gov't policies......
I like the idea of a one year mortgage - I think it is called a lease. Resetable each year.
Maybe the US needs some kind of lease/mortgage combo in wide use. Sign a lease, get some % carried over as virtual downpayment if you stay long enough to get to, say, 20% of the value (at the future time), in which case it becomes a mortgage.
When banks make bad loans
... taxpayers bear losses
JimPortlandOR wrote:
Find a motivated seller and do a lease with option to buy and some credit for payments made.
CR,
How long before we have new data on Homeowner's Equity?
no wonder I felt so at home there. I guess I really am a donut!
mhdoc wrote:
in wide use, i meant this was a very normal thing promoted by all the usual suspects. lease with option is now so marginal that owners don't want to be outliers. Maybe the owners have to be local banks, or the government. Securitization would surely not lead to wide adoption.
We need a new normal that accounts for mortages not likely being vehicles for asset growth in years/decades ahead. If a house is just a house that needs maintenance/care, and prices don't appreciate higher than inflation, then the old regime (1970-2005) won't work.
How will people living in their offices be counted? A special hybrid type of renter? Can an office be a "household" too?
We could do it asian style: bunkrooms and showers for the workers. cafeterias too. the lower cost to workers could allow for wage adjustment to 3rd world standards too, making us 'competitive" Outsourcing to Detroit!
Even more cost-effective: submarine style bunkrooms - hot beds. each shift gets a pre-warmed (by previous shift) bed.
JimPortlandOR wrote:
That would be funny if it wasn't bordering on eerily prescient.
azurite wrote:
Good question. There are officially live/work spaces in these parts, and I imagine they would be residences. And then there are the unofficials. Where it's not zoned or officially permitted in the lease but the landlord doesn't care and Mr.Ms. Single Entrepreneur sees a way to improve his/her cashflow.
The more slump in CRE, the more I see landlords not caring. Those won't count as households. I've seen a few of these over the years, too, mainly artists and artisans.
JimPortlandOR wrote:
David Brinkley wrote a great book about Washington during the WWII years; some of the scuzzier landlords offered that kind of deal. It occurred to some degree in most housing-short cities near defense plants. But I don't see that happening this time around.
"live/work" has been a real gold mine for conversion of abandoned industrial space in wealthier parts of CA... but I can't imagine that lenders are too excited about it these days
Another historical method of housing workers: the railroad construction crew train. bunk cars, collective kitchens, rapid build/tear down bars and whorehouses (some of which became cities with 'law n order'). Run them on commuter lines, or use buses in suburbs, exurbs.
I have always wanted live / work space. Hate driving to work, like to work in my pjs.
City zoning won't let me do that.
this is why developers and politicians end up on a first name basis, to make little problems lilke that go away
Barracks life is not so bad, although I admit that having a private room (as a NCO) was better than 50 guys in two-layer bunk beds on one big floor. Easy to clean though. Downside was the nearly continuous sounds of creaking beds from young horny masturbators.
I should add: odor control from intestinal gas can be an issue....
I've telecommuted for over a year on a couple occasions -- loved it. Of course, I was also project and not time-oriented, which really made it cool. I could hit the beach on a weekday and make up for it on a weekend night, for example.
Late to the party. I missed the christmas thread but I have to share this. Christmas conversations with my son.
Last year while picking the boy up from school the Guidance counselor pulled me into her office and said she was concerned and needed to talk to me about a conversation she had with my son that day.
Son: I heard that Santa brings coal to bad boys, is that true?
Her: Yes, I heard that so be good!
Son: Well, I really hope Santa brings me coal this year.
Her: You want coal? Why!?
Son: So I can give it to my mommy. Then she can burn it and keep us warm. We have no heat and I have lots of blankets but I get soooooo cold. (insert pathetic look here)
So she looks at me and says if you need help we have numbers you can call and we can help however we can blah blah blah
And I reply no, we have heat, i just keep it down around 68 to save on the bill. I did not know he was so cold I will bump it up.
Ah the love and concern of an 8 yr old.
If so much of my work did not show up in the mail, I would never go in. And I sure don't want tenants knowing where I live. oh well. Was able to rent nice office space less than 5 miles from home.
rsj, are you going to explain things to your son? Show him where the T-stat is and how it works? Kid probably thinks you will all be starving next week.
Kids have such limited experiance, hard to know how they come to some of the conclusions they do.
Someone gave a link to a BLS map of US unemployment on the last thread. An ingeractive map is available:
Nice interactive map of unemployment
Link published here a couple of days ago.
No middle ground:
So Fellas, Do We Have Deflation? | zero hedge
Wall Street Journal’s Scott Patterson writes that we won’t get inflation until unemployment is down below 5%.
...and...
(Note: hyperinflation is obviously an entirely different animal. For example, there was rampant unemployment in the Weimar Republic during its bout with hyperinflation ).
Everyone should read that last article I linked. It does a pretty good job of bringing together a lot of the information upon which I've based my depression call.
Your kid is an absolute sweetheart, but you need to teach him that 68+ is really not that cold. Also, there are other ways of keeping warm in winter than central heating. Kotatsu - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia is one example.
"David Brinkley wrote a great book about Washington during the WWII years; some of the scuzzier landlords offered that kind of deal. It occurred to some degree in most housing-short cities near defense plants. But I don't see that happening this time around."
this has already been going in the Oakland, ca area since atleast the early 2000s
you can rent in some of the poorer areas for 8 hour stretches. People go there to sleep and spend the rest of the time out and/or working. It leaves more money to send home to the family.
ille_vir wrote:
Isn't he a little young for that?
the distinction needs to be made between inflation and devaluation. i don't think anyone visualizes inflation being pushed through via wages - it is more a matter of a global flight from the greenback causing commodity inflation while wages (and housing prices) are almost entirely left behind.
LOL. Exercise from an early age never did any kid harm.
Entirely correct, although many at CR and elsewhere still seem to be confused on that point -- especially those thinking that housing prices will rise due to inflation (or even hyperinflation, where again the Weimar experience has proven otherwise).
not confused, just unable to visualize the paradigm due to a lifetime of seeing the greenback as a sun-like constant.
Hyperinflation is a political, not monetary phenomenon. That isn't to say it won't ever happen here. Just not at this point. We are still far from a failed state.
The funny people are those who think it will be easier to pay off a devalued debt in the ensuing economy that comes with the devaluation.
If these people have power, they are scary not funny
Is it me or does one of the following not belong:
Administration aides said possibilities include:
_extending enhanced unemployment-insurance benefits beyond Dec. 31, when they are set to expire.
_extending a tax credit for laid-off workers who buy health insurance through the COBRA program. That program allows workers to keep their company's health insurance plan for 18 months after they leave their job, if they pay the premiums.
_extending a tax credit for first-time home buyers. This credit also is set to expire soon
How does extending the FTHB credit help "laid off workers"?
From a news story 49minutes ago
Obama at hoops game to see brother-in-law's team - Yahoo! News
Are the umemployed going to rush out and buy a phucking house?
Kessler research piece linked to on zerohedge. Worth reading, methinks.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/KESSLERcommentary-0820200KESSLER_9.pdf
it will be very easy to do such for the small minority of people with globally fungible skills. the worst-off will be those dependent on a pension or SS. i suppose that's the silver lining.
"political, not monetary" any monetary system based on pure fiat is purely political.
ille_vir wrote:
But we're booking on down that road!
Later, folks.
Mike in Long Island,
standard way of slipping political hot potatoes into a budget.
Slip it into a bill on military spending or unemployment benefits.
Ah, political forces now are calling for a reduction in Fed powers and a notable backlash against deficit spending and additional monetization seems to be developing, IMHO. This has been Bernanke's false assumption from the start; he thought he could do unlimited heli-drops to stave off deflation, never took political backlash into account. Further stimuli or significant printing is going to be difficult. The Fed operates in a political vacuum until it doesn't.
"Are the umemployed going to rush out and buy a phucking house?"
My guess is the reporter took something out of context - I will give the rep the benefit of the doubt on this one.
Yes - that doesn't make it any more palatable does it?
standard way of slipping political hot potatoes into a budget. Slip it into a bill on military spending or unemployment benefits.
Yes - that doesn't make it any more palatable does it?
Why do you hate America?
/snark just joking
The way gov rules today - they slip it in.
That sounds bad on several levels.
Josap I explained. I also told him to let me know if he s cold. He is underweight and has almost no body fat so what is comfy for others may not be for him. He knows now to speak up and his older sister bought him an electric blanket for christmas that year.
This years conversation was great. He has steadily been letting me know what he wants from santa. All clone war items. I told him he needed to narrow it down because santa may be on a bit of a budget this year and he looks at me and says "But mom, it is magic and elves, what budget would SANTA need?"9 yrs old now and still atrue believer
Then I said welllll boy due to poor risk management and forecasting they leveraged too far too fast and now with their suppliers crashing and just-in-time inventory aint working so hot...wellll i think Santa and his elves are going to be tightening up a bit.
Was the settlement under the bridge for the former
sex offenders just one household or many? (They are
supposed to be moving them, but I never heard how it
turned out.)
I always wondered about the push to increase home ownership. When I was a kid, my parents rented until I was in the 5th grade. Especially since the home ATM is wiped out, isn't renting better.
If the mtg market in Miami is as frozen as I suspect it is,
lease with option will be the only way to buy.
Other than all cash.
My son believed in Cinderella a long time after he figured out Santa.
After all, he actually met Cinderella at her castle dining room at Disney.
We told him she was working, but she showed up to say hi to the diners.
Ha. This year I will likely "buy" property in the Philippines - my wife's home country. As non-citizens we can only own 49% but we can get around that as she still has brothers/sisters there. If things get bad enough I will watch the collapse from afar.
We need a lay-a-way plan for real estate.
I'll be doing my part. I'm starting a second household the 1st of the year...
...unless I just decide to rent someone's spare bedroom.
We are still far from a failed state.
It's still a salvageable situation if the Feds manage a 50% devaluation and a better redistribution of income/work.
Raj--It's called an Agreement for Deed and is a primitive form of
purchase, with lots of potential opportunity for screw ups, for
example if your seller gets a judgment against him or her.
It is legal though.
Rajesh, that would be called savings.
But then again, our savings may not be worth much soon.
The 'Ownership Society'
Patriotic duty to go shopping...'YES, YOU CAN HAVE IT ALL!.'
So Much for Bush's 'Ownership Society' | Newsweek Business | Newsweek.com
Or, rent with an option to buy.
when we did that, we charged an extra 100 a month to be applied towards
the down payment. He was the only renter who paid, and he did buy.
The house price--50k soared afterwards. I supposed it's back to a bit more than 50k again.
I hope he didn't pull the "equity" out.
There is another type of deed in Az. Other than Deed of Trust.
Buyer owns a percentage as the principal is paid down. And it takes different time frames to forclose depending on the percentage of ownership.
We never use it and I can't remember the name of it from class 30 yrs ago.
HollywoodHack wrote:
Be more entitlements by then. Lots more.
Hey Broward, hows the job thing going?
MrM wrote:
Maybe if they count cars...
One person who own two houses is still just one household. But with advances in robotics..
Another take on the 'deficiency' debate:
Limitations on Deficiency Judgments After Foreclosure
Doh!
Rob Dawg wrote:
You can pay it off in devalued money fairly easily... once... its the roll-over & new debt that becomes impossible to obtain UNLESS tied to a 'hard currency'. If we devalue its just one more route to involuntary 'pay-go'...
If you make an option long enough you can do something like that.
And as time goes by, you can provide that you will not be able to foreclose
until 90 or 120 or whatever you choose days after default.
On a mortgage you can make the first payment 6 months or a year after
purchase (done privately sometimes with sales of business). Or you can give
a longer time period after default.
It's all really quite flexible, and I've done all of it. Just
not with institutional lenders whose ideas are frozen and
were frozen long before the credit market was.
Including one where I held money in escrow for 5 years to make sure that
the Buyer paid the first mtg he was assuming for at least that long. It worked
out and the money was given back.
In the competitive devaluation race, so far the U.S. is winning. But it is early in the race and the real cheating has yet to begin.
What a cute foreclosure fish!
In Florida, just Florida mind you, if you do not go for a deficiency judgment within
5 years after default (as defined by a nasty pay-up letter.) you are barred by the
Statute of Limitations.
So all those HELOCS and 2nds currently being ignored, will go away if
the borrower comes to some sort of accomodation with the first lender.
I have an official offer that starts on Oct 12th.
Six months, good chance to last over a year.
About 10-15% less money but I don't have to travel.
It's doing new technology associated with a previous project I spec'ed.
One disturbing trend of the past three years is that the Indians consistently respect me more than Americans. In other words, they look at my resume objectively in terms of accomplishing the mission instead of covering their own ass and career path.
East Indians are cool people.
We are already well along the path of turning small/medium businesses in pay-go enterprises. That ain't working out so well.
In the case of housing debt the real swindle will be the creation of two classes of renter; ownerrenters and renterrenters and little difference twixt the two as I see the asset acquisition part becoming a minor consideration as taxes, utilities and such are certainly going to far outpace any currency devaluation gains.
"The 'Ownership Society'"
You know, it's going to be interesting to see how this works out: As fewer and fewer imagine that they have ownership stakes.
Good for labor mobility, but not sure how this will work out for communities.
Of course, most of the new communities were not all that they were cracked up to be, but I have recently seen neighborhood watch and community organizing in a new development. High turnover should have an impact on that.
Hurrah!! You are taking it aren't you Broward?
Tho we will no doubt hear less from you.
"What a cute foreclosure fish!"
Nemo got a new job?
*broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 10/3/2009 - 5:12 pm
I have an official offer that starts on Oct 12th.
Six months, good chance to last over a year.*
Congratulations! Yes, Indians are funny that way, especially if they are on a temporary visa and not on a career path!
In the old days, businesses built working capital the old fashioned way: They earned it.
Before that they stole it from rich Swiss bankers.
re: Last Thread, Retail Sales.
Flat sales are what I've been expecting. That would make 3 years in a row of 'bad' sales. If flat sales come to pass, expect more hemorrhaging of both jobs and CRE. Contrary to the opinion of Stephanie Rosenbloom, the article's author, flat sales will not make retailers ecstatic. It's more of a death blow in an industry where profits are highly seasonal. Which she would have known if she had talked to more than a retail analyst at Nielsen. There should be a greater variance between smaller and larger retailers for a few reasons. Larger retailers may have been able to access buoyant credit markets directly, hedge against a USD decline between purchase and sale (many retail goods are imported), and have a more comprehensive of national sales from their own data.
re: This thread,
I'm not so sure the homeownership rate remaining stable is a good assumption. I think what will happen is a contraction in average household size, while the renting and ownership markets battle their way down to lower prices because neither can absorb the surplus inventory. One elephant in the room is the ability to continue funding mortgages below cost. In an environment where the IMF is asking the UK to cut the NHS to reduce its deficit, do you think FNM/FRE/FHLB/FHA can sustain themselves for the next 10 years even? Housing needs to become relatively more expensive (not talking about the sticker price, but the cost of housing/maintenance/taxes minus capital appreciation on a monthly basis, otherwise the market is just mining inventory which is unhealthy over the long term).
.
I think 4-7mn foreclosures is now the baseline projection using current data. I'll refer to the September 30th David Rosenberg letter
Instead of thinking that large household sizes in California will come down to meet the rest of America, I think the rest of America will meet California's large household sizes. Housing is becoming less expensive in the sense of purchase price. It's becoming more expensive in the measure relevant to most households' though. Capital appreciation no longer pays for costs of shelter, and then some. Instead, maintaining capital value will be a challenge and taxes will rise. (I use household size in the sense of # of people living in each house)
However I'm not adamant on these issues because there remains to be resolution for household incomes, USD value, costs for materials and energy, and Federal housing ownership subsidies among others. It just seems to me that an ownership rate of 60% is more appropriate than 65% at this juncture. Before this is over the conventional wisdom might flip to it's always better to rent than to own.
Rajesh wrote:
And the winner will be the most desperate.
The thing is how long does Chindia want to ship the US stuff for FREE... because the unsustainable CAD is why we need to 'devalue' - not the existing debt. Every new container unloaded at LA or tanker at the Gulf Terminal... is more that won't be paid off at current valuations. They have to get that - yes/no? At some point they'd want something valuable [like grain or products] you'd think. Instead they gt promises of dollars.
CAD?? Thought that was an architectural program.
Tho we will no doubt hear less from you.
Undoubtedly.
I'll be back over in Seattle with my gf.
And it's new stuff that I couldn't quite get my hands on in 2007.
I'm not sure the attitude of the Indians is tied to a visa.
I think a lot of it is cultural / Gandhi-based.
They grasp certain things about social distribution of work that Americans just don't get because they're so conditioned with this "survival of the fittest" stuff. It would be nice if it could somehow all work in a consistent ethical structure but people being what they are...
so the path is low-level corruption & make work instead of straight-up 32/hr workweek.
It's been happening for years in IT.
he's trying to drag the Loonie into the conversation of fiat instability WRT imports. The funny wrinkle is the amount of oil coming into the US from Canada.
Hi dryfly - What are your views on American exports as a driver of recovery this time around?
People talk a lot about devaluation of USD, labor cost differentials - but there is not much discussion about which sectors could generate growth substantial enough to affect GDP growth rates (meaning growing by a hundred of billions of dollars or so)
We on this board had a discussion the other day whether the lights-out manufacturing could be such a driver, but did not have facts to lean on.
Thanks!
You would think that the Chinese would want something valuable for their hard work, but the evidence is clear that they like the electrons they are accumulating in the Federal Reserve computers. I hope they have a good backup data storage solution. I would hate to lose track of how many Treasury bonds the Chinese central banks owns.
Oh, well, you can't forge an electron. . .can you?
CAD??
Current Account Deficit
lawyerliz,
I believe dryfly was referring to the Current Account deficit. The current account is Trade + Net Income from ownership of foreign investments + Net transfers in general. It's balancing the global chequebook (all transactions but the big money/long term ones that go under the capital account)
CAD also stands for Computer Aided Design, Canadian Dollar, and can be used as a noun: a man who behaves dishonorably, esp. toward a woman
hey a comment counter on the bottom.....thanks kcoop.
BOOM
DONE
WTFD is CAD dry, is that a mixer for a beverage
¿
EHP;
"Retail Sales....Flat sales are what I've been expecting. That would make 3 years in a row of 'bad' sales. "
Consider discounting. I needed to buy some new walking shoes today. So I drove past a big mall advertising "Sports Liquidation" with big banners and sign spinners out, and went in to take a look. Turns out it was a temporary Reebok outlet (not advertised as such), about 25,000 sqft of merchandise that they decided to dump. Double markdowns, net result was $85 shoes selling for $29. Including the Rockport line, which I did not know was owned by ReeBok.
So they are basically undercutting their retailers.
Not so much here in the northeast. Trying to do some end of season wrap-up and weather not cooperating.
sm_landlord,
wow. You also brought up another point, not only are sales/revenues down but the gross profit margins are down because that's what is selling.
MrM wrote:
:: ::
Won't be - pure and simple. But a reduction of imports comparable in magnitude to our exports so that CAD balances... is going to have to be a part of any recovery - unless the 'merchantilists' continue to give it away for free. They done it a long time - suppose they can continue. Then they shouldn't complain about what the get in return - dollars.
Thanks much, dryfly
I share this view.
Some imports (like European luxury goods) are easier to reduce than others (like oil). It will be a painful adjustment process
nice comment.
Do we all see what we want to believe?