first second
or is it second first

The politicians are going to have to reverse that line dramatically if they want to be reelected.

(from the bridge of the U$$ Enterprise...)

Cap'n to crew: We never figured computers could be so small and replace so many people's jobs, and don't get me started on Asian-rates-of-pay so low, Sulu. Would all 5 of you now please come and collect your final paycheck?

Kirk, out.

ksmithderm:

I drove approx. 2000 miles over 4 days through Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Oklahoma a couple weeks back.

I stopped at a number of spots (fast food joints, motels, etc.) 100% staffed by older white men and women. The ones in front looked good and spoke perfect english. The ones in the back maybe were missing a tooth or something.

Houston, we have a problem.....

good morning
this one is just downward bound. im going to have to go swing in my swing alread and i just got up.!

The less educated/less skilled workers go first. I have noticed a change in our building's cleaning crew. Last year if I was working late, the crew was mostly foreign and spoke little English. Last week, I was working late and the crew was mostly white females.

If the darker population is losing their jobs at a faster clip, I'm guessing a new generation will pick up the "burn, baby, burn" chant.

I have to drive through a Hispanic part of town on my way to work. There is a day labor office on the route. Last year, the place was busy with workers lining up and contractors stopping by to grab workers to dig holes, carry materials, clean-up the job site, etc. Now the place is about empty.

Before you slip into oblivion
I'd like to have another diss,
Another blogging chance at bliss,
Another diss, another diss.

The days are bright and filled with pain,
Inform me in your gentle refrain.
The time you ran was too insane,
We'll meet again, we'll meet again.

Oh, tell me where your freedom lies,
Wall*Street Unabankers never lie,
Deliver me from reasons why
You'd rather fly, I'd rather cry.

The Cristal ship is being filled,
A thousand perps, a thousand jerks,
A million ways to spend your dimes,
When we get you back, I'll drop a line.

YouTube - The Doors - The Crystal Ship (classic version by George Winston)

Terry:

EXACTLY. ZERO Consequences.

Well I'm here to say that consequences are coming in a BIG way.. For everyone...

That part of town is mostly Hispanic, so? Ever drive through Chicago?

Without delving into the socioeconomic distribution of the job losses (which is still in progress and the hammer is falling on white collar as well per observations dryfly has made, just less visibly - we see them in the prime mortgage distress), just looking at the job recovery time due to structural changes in the economy as seen in the most recent recessions my reaction can only be "holy sh!t!" as it is going to be a decade to make up these service sector jobs if they ever come back - which seems unlikely as they seem to be the epiphenomenon of the generational credit binge that has been underway...

If we are dumb, we will name this the Greatest Depression because we will figure that there is NO way we could let it happen again.

If we are smart we will name it Great Depression II, knowing that GD III is only 80-100 years away.

I "HAVE "to drive through a Hispanic neighborhood.... as compared to... I drive through a Hispanic neighborhood........ Just saying **

+++
Way better, I agree.

Sorry - first cup of coffee still - the have to was a reference to the freeway off ramps - no harm intended

Terry,

Just sensitive to the issue... for eight years our country focused on Hispanics as the biggest problem.... mean while banksters were dreopping us off a cliff

Terry to the white courtesy phone please.... Jeananne Garafalo wants to discuss using the word "have" and it's harmful racial overtones.

It's funny, during WW2 in the Pacific...

Many islanders got used to delish g.i. food & hooch and lived high on the hog, but when the war was over, we up and left. The desperate islanders created faux airplanes, etc, trying to lure us back, to no avail.
++++++++++++++++++++++++

In attempts to get cargo to fall by parachute or land in planes or ships again, islanders imitated the same practices they had seen the soldiers, sailors, and airmen use. They carved headphones from wood and wore them while sitting in fabricated control towers. They waved the landing signals while standing on the runways. They lit signal fires and torches to light up runways and lighthouses. The cult members thought that the foreigners had some special connection to the deities and ancestors of the natives, who were the only beings powerful enough to produce such riches.

In a form of sympathetic magic, many built life-size replicas of airplanes out of straw and created new military-style landing strips, hoping to attract more airplanes. Ultimately, although these practices did not bring about the return of the airplanes that brought such marvelous cargo during the war, they did have the effect of eradicating most of the religious practices that had existed prior to the war.

Cargo cult - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In contrast, our Consumer Cargo Cult is very much a real thing, as fishermen 50 miles away from Singapore, can attest to. They said it came out of nowhere, 500 ships or so going nowhere fast.

BHO would have done immensely better for himself and the country, if he had remembered Clinton's mantra, 'its the economy(read jobs) stupid!'; its not 'blow $ up wall street a$$ and be wishy washy on health care reform'. I am guessing that the WH agenda is chock full of items 'returning favor to parties' that got him elected. What a colossal waste of mandate and opportunity to clean up wall st corruption.

didja know that Clusterstock had this chart up inside of 20 minutes after CR posted?

already pulled 11 comments.

*circular referencing

Energycon - I beg to differ, having worked for 25 years on ways to deliver financial services to business and consumers using electronic means as opposed to paper. When I was first getting into the business, every credit card transaction (over the floor limit), had to have a voice authorization. Those were replaced by electronic authorizations. Every transaction created a paper slip using the knuckle buster imprinters, which then had to be collected, balanced by hand, and transported to the bank, and then flown or driven to their processing center, and then key entered. Now it is all electronic draft capture. When these services came in 20 years ago, the credit card companies eliminated tens of thousands of customer service personnel. It has progressed since then

I think that I will go by Euro American so I can have racial leverage. Funny, culture concentrated parts of towns are not racist when partying is involved, Octoberfest any one? Pass the beer, sausage and cheese.

energyecon wrote:

the hammer is falling on white collar as well per observations dryfly has made

Didn't see those comments. Is there a quick summary?

"I have wondered if the Logan's Run Carousel concept might actually be a solution to our many gigantic problems "

It would put too many health care workers out of work .

mock turtle, thanks for the Grayson/Bernanke link.

What's odd is, I recognize the usefulness of those currency swaps at the same time I appreciate the Congressman's stressing his problem with the lack of Congressional approval. Well-played, Grayson.

Have been in another site reading an analysis of derivatives exposure. I'm not at all qualified to rate the accuracy of the arguments or of conclusions (and tend to accept provisionally until more information comes my way), but found it a disturbing read:

Dude, where's the Dharma?: From Black Scholes to Black Holes (part 4- Finance)

. . . with apologies for OT.

My German friend thinks our Octoberfest is funny.

Octoberfest is a place in Germany, it started in Sept this year. It is held in a town, like a festival each year. It is not celebrated in any other town. ( I don't remember which town)

Our economy has come down to selling things to each other. We stopped buying things - no jobs.

@Terry - automated systems and EDI is yesterdays technology and news
The new vernacular is LinkedData Linked Data - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

About 3-4 years ago I was in Edinburgh, Scotland, on a visit home as part of a round trip from Australia via Florida in the US. I got into a discussion with an American about the Iraq war. He was an ex GI from way back and we agreed upon many things, but not all. Especially when I pointed out that - starting from the Philippines, and on through Vietnam - that (even excluding Nagasaki and Hiroshima) the USA had killed more innocents than any nation in the history of the world. He said laughingly, you are not suggesting that we are worse than Hitler? Much, I replied, citing Harold Pinter. He didn't speak to me again at that bar in Edinburgh, but I do hope that my comments remained with him when he returned to the US. My point is, with these horrific unemployment numbers I fear that things can only get worse. Next may be a draft and war against any convenient target, likely starting with Iran. God bless America.

For inquiring minds - Since for some reasons BLS does not publish, seasonal adjustments for the Asian population, all number are not seasonally adjusted

Sep-2009

Employment-to-population ratio:
White 59.9%
Black or African-American 52.1%
Asian 60.7%

U3 unemployment rate (Sep-2009, SA):
White 8.6% (Seasonally adjusted is 9.0%)
Black or African-American 15.3%
Asian 7.4%

I have no clue on how we will ever generate enough jobs to clear the back log and to provide employment to the new entrants. We have become European - persistent double digit enemployment.

longwaver,
If things go as I suspect, it will be fun for me and my Hispanic friends to teach you how use a shovel and live in poverty

km4 - I am in the industry and that concept scares me! Talk about big brother.

Narayana Kocherlakota

http://bbs.cenet.org.cn/uploadimages/200310919182779389.pdf

....money is a primitive form of memory whose main purpose is to help individuals and businesses keep track of their transactions.

lol. alan grayson is wearing a us currency necktie during the questioning w/ Ben Bernanke.

Morning BSR - I already attoned for my transgressions

Terry (profile) wrote on Sat, 10/3/2009 - 7:39 am
km4 - I am in the industry and that concept scares me! Talk about big brother.

No worries.... Linked data and semantic web & enterprise will provide more sophisticated machine understanding to complement - not replace - human cognition and pattern matching.

The prior Structural Economic Transformation was notorious for the electorate's impatience with ethics lapses and economic mis-steps by Presidents, grinding through 4 Presidents in a mere 7 years; whereas the folloowing 23 year 'boom' of 1984-2007 saw a far more tolerant electorate. Only 4 presidents in 23 years despite Iran-Contra, lies of WMDs, Monica-gate, etc.

Black Star Ranch:

I think we are all in "the can"... "For crimes against the state, I hereby sentence you to work for your entire life, give nearly everything to the Federal Government and expect NOTHING when you get old except inflation that will make your meager savings worthless"

Now the tricky part is finding a job... but that's your problem...

We went to Oktoberfest in Munich on opening day one time. I'm not much of a drinker, and 4 of us drank 4 liters each in one of the halls, which was full of Pommies, all wearing cool looking green shirts for the occasion. We stumbled out into where they have food, and you just need one whiff of mackerel on a stick, to put you off of buying anything until you come to your senses and do your wurst, and then if you're really stupid like we were, you'd go ride some of those portable carnival rides, just to see if you are hurl-proof. We went down under into the subway and back to the hotel & crawled into our beds to sleep it off, got back on the subway, and went into the same hall we'd been drinking in, about 9 pm, and the same Kiwis and Aussies were there, and they had sharpie pens, and had kept a running-total of hash-marks on the back of their shirts x liters.

The most I saw on somebody was 18 hash marks...

Terry

I have no clue on how we will ever generate enough jobs to clear the back log and to provide employment to the new entrants. We have become European - persistent double digit enemployment.

IMO, solution:

1. One job per family norm again; house prices will settle to support that
2. The family farm can employ millions; not every body can live within 40 miles of US coast line!
3. Currency devaluation will bring back a few million jobs.
4. Mass transportation infrastructure and health care infrastructure will employ a few million more; on an ongoing basis.

sam.2 writes:
Thta's exactly why BHOs move towards socialism seems so appealing to the sheeple.

Sounds like a plan to me!

If you think you're going to get a receptive audience for that kind of crap here, then you're on the wrong site. Go elsewhere.

longwaver,
Great minds think alike, but fools never differ..........welcome

We have become European - persistent double digit unemployment.

The US unemployment rate is now slightly above the European unemployment rate, which BTW has been in single digits at least for the past 10 years.

The US unemployment tends to be much more volatile, with high highs and low lows, so to say. The European unemployment is more stable.

Also, dont most western european nations use a more honest definition of unemployment than the US does? Dont they routinely count people whose jobless benefits have expired (whenever that happens) whereas the the US doesnt in the U-3?
I believe there are other 'counting differences' as well.

shrugsaid

Getting ready to take a five year to participate in her first soccer game...the kinder girls' team...this is going to be fun!

Dont they routinely count people whose jobless benefits have expired (whenever that happens) whereas the the US doesnt in the U-3?

Unemployed people receiving UI are surely included in U3. Otherwise, U3 would have been around 6%, I guess.

Most countries, including the US (the U3 measure) and EU members, use the same standard definition of unemployment LABORSTA Internet: Main statistics (annual) - Unemployment (E)

A secret is a story you tell one person at a time.

The -824k is the advance estimate of the loss of jobs not accounted for from the March 2008 - March 2009 period, and it will be final report in February 2010 to be added to the January 2010 B/D model. It's worth noting that the B/D adjustments relative to ADP have been going against the grain in a bigger way. Probably adding ~900k annually when the number should have been negative. Maybe the economy will recover in 2010 and they'll do less of a revision in 2011, but there is a backlog of job loss reports baked in underneath the temporary, part time, and reduced hours slack. I can't say where BLS went wrong in the B/D model, but they should probably have included factors as to why this recession is different. The model basically applies the notion that "the more job losses there are, the more jobs will be created and 60% of jobs created are in small businesses". However when mediian unemployment is over 6 months, when job turnover/creation is low in the measurable firms, when the real interest rate is high, when capacity utilization is at record lows, when final demand (C + I + G + Imports - Exports) is falling at a double digit rate, when unemployment exhaustion is 50%, .... it's different.

MrM, that you misread my queston.
I said the U3 does not include people whose benefits have expired. they are rolled off the U3 count. This is explained on the BLS web site.

Avl Dao - Can you please quote the part of the BLS definition you are referring to?

Unemployment has nothing to do with unemployment benefits - it depends on the number of people who do not have full time jobs and are actively seeking for them.

Avi Dao,

To the best of my knowledge, European benefits differ from ours in a few ways - they're closer to supporting the unemployed than ours, they generally last until a new job is secured, the relevant agencies are directly involved in finding new placement.

It makes comparison somewhat difficult.

Mrm. google to the BLS website and read their press releases, tables and definitions.
whenever they refer to "insured" they are refering to folks under the unemployment insurance program which is their fancy word for jobless benefits.

Avl Dao - Please go to the source and check before posting.

How is the unemployment rate related to unemployment insurance claims?

Some people think that to get these figures on unemployment the Government uses the number of persons filing claims for unemployment insurance (UI) benefits under State or Federal Government programs. But some people are still jobless when their benefits run out, and many more are not eligible at all or delay or never apply for benefits. So, quite clearly, UI information cannot be used as a source for complete information on the number of unemployed.

The number of unemployed persons in the United States and the national unemployment rate are produced from data collected in the Current Population Survey (CPS), a monthly survey of over 60,000 households. A person's unemployment status is established by responses to a series of questions on whether they have a job or are on layoff, whether they want a job and are available to work, and what they have done to look for work in the preceding 4 weeks. The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed persons as a percent of the labor force (employed and unemployed persons).

to some in the media's credit, a few are also taking the time to note that the BLS' U-3 data refers to the jobless workers in the insured programs...i.e. those receivig benefits. But most news do not report that distinction....even though the BLS e-mailed press releases clearly explain it.

Throwing the bums out politically in 1976 was one thing. Not one thing was imported from the PRC to our shores that Bicentennial year. Everything was made in Europe or here, with the Japanese muscling in on the action. We could recover, and all the infrastructure wasn't going anywhere, right?

How would it play today, throwing the bums out?

MrM, please go to a representative sample of souces at the entire BLS site rather than cherry-picking a section to make a distorted point. The full definitions plus the press releases make my case. The U-3. only references those in the insurance program. The press releases make that clear. The u-4 thru u-6 have different definitions.

If you choose to believe otherwise, that is fine with me.

Basel, we're in difficulties over comparing contexts here again. Out of work people are required to accept state-provided employment, even if it's outside their field of expertise, until something opens up in their field. If it's determined that retraining into something related is the best course, an out-of-work person goes back to school to get certified.

But there's no student loan. Higher education is provided, as we do with K-12, except you must show aptitude to qualify.

More comparison problems - circumstances are significantly different here and there.

juvenal, back in 1976, who made the decisions to import from the PRC that Bicentennial year?

MrM, I not only use the BLS website, i actuallyalso talk with people in their offices.
You, my friend, need to step away from the laptop and get some fresh air.
I am not in the business of spoon-feeding URLs to folks.
And thats my last comment to you, bud. have a good day.

Avi said:

juvenal, back in 1976, who made the decisions to import from the PRC that Bicentennial year?

Well, you'd have to go back first to Henry Kissinger and then a lowly ping pong player, and then to Tricky Dick, perhaps to Ehlichman, whoopsy-daisy into Watergate, Duck- it's Dick Cheney too, Rummy and finally to Hank Paulson, to make any kind of connection.

Something like that.

Back to the issue at hand....CR's post and chart.
That is a great graph and thankfully CR allows peopple to use it while citing CR.

But over the chart covers, the definitions/counting methods of the jobless have changes as well. But not enough to erase CR's larger points that it looks like 2007-2000x will not be a V-shaped rebound.

Thanks O H,

Give me a working example of what you say...

I thought right to work laws meant you didn't have to join a union--even if the union had bargaining power.

As the chart shows, the adjustment is not a small 'oops'. It is a major miscalculation that requires some serious readjustment in the way the b/d numbers are calculated.

You forgot to include the 1932 recession

there are a few misconceptions about so called "right to work" states

the laws in those states...about 20 of them mostly south of the mason dixon line

prohibit closed shop (all workers unionized) at a workplace - employer

additionally the union is not allowed to require payment of union dues

this allows employers via the hiring of non union workers

to weaken the unions ability to pressure thru negotiation or strike

higher wages and benefits

see taft hartly act. passed by mostly republicans after the death of FDR

to weaken new deal legislation

JD,
Most of the right-to-work vs. union state distinctions are now passe, but here is an example.
Pretend that you are a plumber. In a union state, if the union set a rate of $20 per hour for your work, you could not work for a plumbing company or hire yourself out as an individual for less than$20 per hour. In a right-to-work state, even though the union rate is $20 per hour, you could work for $18 if you choose to.

mock, thats a good point. I can only imagine how states have since tacked on their own unique requirements where allowed under federal law.

In addition to right to work, there are "Employment at Will' concepts and terminology that sometimes people mix-up with Right To Work interpretations during conversation.

Treasury Yields Drop to Lowest Since May as Recovery Falters - Bloomberg.com

“A worldwide yield grab is under way,” said Tony Crescenzi, a market strategist and portfolio manager at Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co. “The Federal Reserve has put a ‘curse on cash,’ pushing investors to move out the risk spectrum for additional yield. In Treasuries, increasing one’s risk is accomplished by moving out the yield curve.”

Treasuries fell 4.5 percent in the first six months of the year, according to Merrill data. For the year Treasuries have slipped 2.4 percent, their worst performance to this point since 1994, when they had lost 3.7 percent.

So far this year, U.S. sold $1.517 trillion of notes and bonds, compared with $585 billion at the same point last year. Primary dealer Barclays Plc forecasts total 2009 issuance at $2.1 trillion, with $2.5 trillion projected for 2010.

Reports this week showed the Chicago Purchasing Managers index unexpectedly fell in August. The S&P/Case-Shiller home- price index fell 13.3 percent in July from a year earlier, less than economists forecast.

The economic crisis, which started with the collapse of the U.S. real estate market in 2007, triggered $1.62 trillion of writedowns and credit losses at financial institutions, sending the global economy into its first recession since World War II.

“We’re going to see continued bull flattening in the Treasury market and riskier assets are going to struggle,” said Carl Lantz ...

Interestingly, I just discovered here in North Carolina that effectively, a licensed real estate broker can not provide a "Broker Price Opinion" which is easier and cheaper to do than a full-blown real estate appraisal. The fine print says that technically they can do a BPO but they will have their licensed revoked IF they accept payment for delivering a BPO.
So while we all know RE valuations are plumetting, our state limits Realtors from adjusting to that reality by using market creativity to provide a service at a price the market wants.

Juve, yeah I read that last year when Paulie was the center of the world's attention.
They do move in closed circles. The WSJ (i think) highlighted Paulson's subsequent refusal? concern? to go along with Watergate as evidenced of Paulson's 'Wholesomeness and Goodness'.

Doc, it's all good, as they are rated AAA* and sure to make investors happy.

*American Assignat Assets

Does anyone understand the impacts of this in terms of a recovery????? Huh .... do yah?

Depression less severe?

OH chick is incorrect.
Barfly's quote is correct.
There is a Federal minimum wage. It was challenged in the Supreme Court. First it was struck down. There was bloody conflict, labor vs. management. Roosevelt maneuvered it through, buying some peace.
Right-to-work is right to freeload.

EHP, I think Harpers Mag did a long piece this summer on how Administrations championed (edit: Changing the) definitions of GDP, CPI and assorted unemployment rates over the decades.
And if I was the BLS, I would always be open to tinkering with the definitions anyway , if only out of naivete and believeing I am truly making a better definition of U1-U6, etc.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser, for one, said the central bank must act with "courage" to unwind its highly accommodative monetary policy or else risk a repeat of the "Great Inflation" of the 1970s, according to Dow Jones Newswires.

Is history repeating itself?

The two problems are related—the more effectively youcan invigorate the free private market, the lower will be die transitional costs of ending inflation. But they are also distinct: strengthening the free market will not end inflation; ending inflation will not automatically produce a vigorous, innovative free market. The source of inflarion in Chile is crystal clear: government spending is roughly 40 percent of the national income; roughly one-quarter of this spending is not matched by explicit taxes; it must therefore be financed by creating new money, which is to say, by the hidden tax of inflation.
http://wwww.naomiklein.org/files/resources/pdfs/friedman-pinochet-letters.pdf

I think it means that if you're a plumbing firm and you dont want to agree to that wage, local enforcement can be activated to shut-down a job site and revoke licensure.
Unions aren't that strong. They work company by company, not statewide. You're thinking of 'prevailing wage' statutes.

Unions aren't that strong. They work company by company, not statewide. You're thinking of 'prevailing wage' statutes.

I'm thinking Chicago and Illinois. Where the unions are SO strong that they wisely convert their might into prevailing wage statutes.

EDIT: The unions lobby for re-writing the statutes and provide the draft language. Same things the Wall Street Banks do with federal statutues on banking and consumer credit. It's all bout effective lobbying and wordprocessing.

Officers arriving on scene reported the man at the house had a gun in one hand and a beer in the other.

We are gathered here to remember J1P, who got home-sick.

You may be wrong, but you are consistent

Avl Dao,
I know all about changes in BLS methodology and other sets of economic data for politically strategic purposes. The chart you see is based of declines from peak that can be recreated from St. Louis Fed: Series: EMRATIO, Civilian Employment-Population Ratio
It's # of people with jobs / # of people in labor force. Nothing to do with augmenting the labor force by eliminating marginally attached workers. I had a some posts last fall that basically covered this, and I recommended everyone follow EMRATIO because it was the most reliable figure. Having a volatile denominator is insanely damaging to having a relevant metric. Their methodology for estimating the civilian labor pool (age 16 and up, not institutionalized, not in military) may not over time prove up to the task of adjusting to a situation where seniors are the only group showing job growth when they normally would be expected to be or stay retired -- but it's a stable figure, and it does the best job of adjusting for demographic changes over time.
Take St. Louis Fed: Series: CE16OV, Civilian Employment
divide by
St. Louis Fed: Series: CLF16OV, Civilian Labor Force
Again, the chart in CR's post has nothing to do with U1-U6

where do people think statutes come from? By lawmakers having **no **contact with unions (in reference to the debate on Right To Work) or no contact with mfgrs and their lobbies (with regards to the debate on out-soucing...where mfgr lobbie don both sides of the bills) and on banking and financing?

In many cases the lobbyist provide the draft language that gets codified into law or statute. that is how power is leveraged in DC and state capitals.

Yogi,
Would you please let us know what is wrong about what we are saying, so that we can understand the concept of right -to-work better. Just saying our comments are wrong isn't helping me out here.

Prevailing Wage Statutes apply only to State projects.

They do not force a private employer or homeowner to pay a set wage above the State minimum.

EHP,

exactly where in CR's post today...and where on that chart....does it say the source of his data?

Now, perhaps you personally 'know' his souce...but where does it say the source?
Im not saying you're wrong.

longwaver wrote:
Also I think the Olympic committee is racist.. No other rational explanation.

Apparently the biggest factors in choosing Rio and quickly disposing of Chicago were: South America has never hosted an Olympics, and Chicago USA would require the same long wait times for US visas as is now the new normal. It is very hard for many world citizens to get a visa to the US without month's long waiting times, fingerprinting, background checks, and general hassle at the US ports of entry.

Read between the lines: Negative Bond Returns Converge With Mortgage Miracle (Update2) - Bloomberg.com

Borrowing rates have declined on everything from mortgages to corporate bonds after the Fed and the government lent, spent or guaranteed $11.6 trillion to shore up banks and end the recession.

Most dealers forecast that yields will remain near current levels into 2010 with consumer prices falling 1.5 percent from a year earlier and foreign buyers increasing the pace of Treasury purchases as issuance of alternatives such as so-called agency securities decrease.

“The primary driver of our forecast is inflation,” said Michael Chang, a New York-based interest-rate strategist at Credit Suisse Group AG, which expects the Fed to keep borrowing costs in a record low range of zero to 0.25 percent through the second quarter. Citigroup Inc., Morgan Stanley, Daiwa Securities Group Inc. and UBS AG see an increase in the target rate before the last half of 2010.
**

The U.S. has sold $1.517 trillion in notes and bonds this year, compared with $585 billion in the same period a year earlier. Barclays forecasts the government will sell $2.1 trillion in debt this year and $2.5 trillion next, up from $892 billion for 2008.

Have a nice day!

OH just read barfly's post carefully.

"Right-to-work" means the State (Government) bails out workers who refuse to pay union dues or are willing to undercut them and split the bonus with the employer, who says "I'm as angry as you are, union, but we have no choice".

I'm not suggesting that no union has ever unfairly distributed its leverage. But the term "Right-to Work" is pure horseshit.

Avi, what region are you in that you shouldn't have your very own DVD of Brazil?

1 currency now -yogi wrote:

The name is marketing right-wing bullshit which has no place in the rebuilding from this disaster.

well, yogi......part of your post is correct.........the "bullshit" part.....

but it is consistent which is what I think you found dispute with

Dispute is not what i said, EHP.
I love the chart and e-distributed CR's earlier one to many people as good data. I raised the question of consistency...and hopefully will get an answer. Im comfortable with small imperfections of data.
And if the source of the data is whom you claim it is, thats fine as well. But as I said, the source is not cited. Nonetheless I still like the chart.
I think some readers....simply 'read' too much into the comments posted and react too strongly/quickly....sometimes...occassionally....once in a blue moon.

But as the young people say, "It's All Good"

THANKS!

Finally. Last time I searched, Amazon said it simply wasnt available yet.

As Unions have waved good bye to jobs going overseas for decades. Yep their right all the way to the bottom.

DWP was designed to be insulated from LA city political control, so these people have more real power than anyone on City Council.

If anything, I'd suspect the DWP is "leaking" these stories into the media with lots of juicy detail to back their case that they can't make any cuts, and indeed, need to hire more overpaid workers. Check out the phrasing of the opening paragraph of this story from the LA Daily News -- copy that could have been ghostwritten by a DWP PR executive:

FOR years, Los Angeles has been diverting hundreds of millions of dollars in water service revenues from the utility to help pay for general city expenses. For years, the city used the money to shore up an ever-expanding political infrastructure instead of for important upgrades to the water infrastructure.

DWP. Untouchable. Always been.

O Henry came up with "Banana Republic"...

Here's one of his stories with a nice Wall*Street tie--in

The Roads We Take by O Henry

"When the first impression that guests from other countries get of our country, is 10 of their fingerprints and a mug shot from U.S. Customs, first impressions really do matter."

I used to travel for business in Europe, Latin America, Asia and the Middle East - the fingerprinting and shapshots are nothing like seeing military personnel with automatic weapons.

Hoopajoops LTD (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 10/3/2009 - 10:51 am replyIgnore user

sam.2 writes:
Thta's exactly why BHOs move towards socialism seems so appealing to the sheeple.

Just sit on our fat asses smoking butts and eating Cheetos in our federally owned Mcmansions biding our time between our federally paid for angioplasty and dialysis treatments.....while the oligarchs skim enough off the top to live LARGE.

Sounds like a plan to me!

If you think you're going to get a receptive audience for that kind of crap here, then you're on the wrong site. Go elsewhere.

I am sorry Hoopa if my personal snark meter was not functioning properly. However,in a society where chronic, double digit UE appears likely, the appeal of government subsidy - and a governing body that seeks to gain (and maintain) power on such a platform, is relevant, IMO.

It's been ages since Mulholland gave them the keys to the city, which are quite rusty @ present.

Things Change

LOL.....yogi.........let me rephrase it so even you can understand it........first the homeless family part....the "status" of people living in my home is not open to discussion. Have I ever taken in homeless? Many times. As far as a "Right To Work" State, I, as an employee do NOT want to be forced to join a Union - pretty simple concept for most.

EHP - I feel your frustration I gave up trying to convince him about definitions based on quotes from BLS

Avl Dao,
Why then ask a question whose answer you are not willing to listen to. It's insulting when you try to talk above me by citing a Harper's article for something I am 5 steps ahead of you on. I would be fine with you choosing not to believe me if you weren't so lazy you couldn't search the CR archives or run the spreadsheet yourself. It's no different than someone coming on here to argue the world is flat and then rejecting demonstrable facts to the contrary. I don't care what you believe, I do care how you believe it, and deliberate ignorance will irritate me

I've traveled in the communist world back in the day, and they only kept your passport overnight, when staying in a hotel

You missed the hidden cameras in your room.

"you missed the hidden cameras in your room."

I'd give a thing or two to see my tapes now!

"I'd give a thing or two to see my tapes now!"

Have a bit of fun back then burnside?

Terry,

Leningrad was quite a town, even with (maybe especially with) Intourist as your guide and chaperon.

and deliberate ignorance will irritate me

U R gonna get ulcers.

Luckily your health care will cover it.

heritage foundation chart on union/non-union employment from 1977 to 2008
http://freemarketmojo.files.wordpress.com/2009/08/b2275_chart1_11.gif
union data @ Union Membership (Annual) News Release

Leningrad was quite a town

Now, as St. Petersburg and after major face-lift, it is simply striking

This will explain what communism was all about...

In theory, there were set values to Russian Rubles, and Czech Crowns, and Hungarian Forints, etc.

But, you could buy those very same currencies right in the open in a bank in Vienna and get 3x as much Czech Crowns as the official rate.

My mom & dad went back to Czechoslovakia almost every year for 25 years (he had to let time heal wounds, as he had been sentenced to death in absentia-his crime? High Treason, the reason? he left the country in 1947... ha) starting in the early 1970's.

One of those early trips, my mom buys Cz Crowns in Vienna to take to Prague, where she doesn't know that there isn't anything to buy in the stores, no matter what the currency exchange-rate is, and my aunt had a tizzy-fit in Prague, when mom was successful in her small-time smuggling effort, and showed her the filthy lucre, a Serious Crime, so serious that my aunt sticks the manna in her down under for safe-keeping. It was a crazy world, the stores were full of nothing to buy and lots of it.

Kafka was dead, but still very much alive in Prague...

Speaking of puppet shows:

Moody’s Offered Ex-Staffer ‘Old Mushroom Treatment’ (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

Moody’s Corp. gave former compliance executive Scott McCleskey the “old mushroom treatment” by “keeping him in the dark and burying him in fertilizer,” said Edolphus Towns, a New York Democrat and chairman of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.

“They knew the ratings were incorrect,” Kolchinsky said. “They had knowledge of it, and yet they still went forward and issued the ratings.”

olchinsky’s allegations are “a series of evolving claims” made over the last year, said Richard Cantor, Moody’s chief credit officer. A review of Kolchinsky’s claims by an outside law firm interviewed 22 Moody’s employees with only Kolchinsky refusing to speak to the attorneys, Cantor said.

“Mr. Kolchinsky’s claims of misconduct are unsupported,” he said.

Representative Paul Kanjorski, the Pennsylvania Democrat and chairman of the House Financial Subcommittee on Capital Markets, is also holding a hearing today in Washington to discuss the legislation. Last week he circulated a draft of the Accountability and Transparency in Rating Agencies Act.

Kolchinsky and McCleskey were questioned by Kanjorski, who said there was “nothing surprising” in their testimony and that they had not proven fraud took place at Moody’s. Negligence may have occurred based on what the former Moody’s employees testified to, he said.

Juvi - it was snark . . .

"We will have to agree to disagree."

Thought-terminating cliché - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Opening line on the Heritage Foundation chart:

"Total manufacturing employment has declined steadily over the past generation because of the loss of union jobs."

Nice spin typical of the ultraconservatives. More to the point:

Total manufacturing employment has declined steadily over the past generation because of the elimination of union jobs, mostly by shipping the work out of the country.

Rating agencies need more accountability: Kanjorski | Business Insurance

The congressman said the credit rating agencies “greatly contributed to our current economic problems by inappropriately issuing triple-A ratings for mortgage-backed securities and other complex financial instruments that later failed spectacularly.” He added that “perhaps more troubling, these agencies failed to learn more about the quality of the products they rated.”

During a question-and-answer period after the testimony, Rep. Stephen Lynch, D-Mass., said that the credit rating organizations should be subject to increased liability “that might act as a constraint for giving ratings on these products in return for cash.”

It's my understanding that right to work states originated the concept years ago to intice factory owners to move their operations from union states to right to work states so that the factory owners could benefit from cheaper labor. These "labor" laws were never designed to benefit workers.

The best job ever had was union. Sadly, most people are now brainwashed by the MSM into believing unions are evil, and unions have no power at a time when workers really need a strong organized force to represent them.

burnside - this is an awesome site, thanks!!

LOL......don't be mistaken - I have no questions about your mental abilities and your apparent superior knowledge on maybe this topic. I DO FEEL that Unions are complicit in the state of our Nation now, they went WAY overboard, and have probably driven MANY industries abroad. As to any "re-education" on my part - you might try teaming up with the Mrs., she's been involved in that concept for close to two decades.

I hope to God and rating agencies are smashed apart and ground into very fine fragments of dried up shit, which are then distributed into the sewer. Furthermore, I hope and pray that Buffett will end up eating his goodwill which is linked to his distorted rating... rant, rant, rant..

Rating agency reform legislation 'inappropriate and unfair' - Risk.net

If the proposal were to become law, lawyers would use it to argue that NRSROs may be sued for securities fraud whenever they act 'unreasonably'. This would differ materially from the legal standard applicable to every other defendant — including auditors, equity analysts, issuers, underwriters and others — who must be found to have acted intentionally with bad faith before they can be found liable. Such a distinction is inappropriate and unfair,” argued Deven Sharma, president of Standard & Poor's (S&P) in prepared testimony.
Perhaps the most divisive element of the discussion draft is a proposal that would allow a plaintiff unable to recover full monetary damages from one NRSRO in a lawsuit to then treat “all NRSROs as jointly liable for the amount of such judgement, and the plaintiff may collect any outstanding amount from any other NRSRO”.

a multiple curse on these evil shitbags

Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 10/3/2009 - 9:42 am

*

(dons tin-foil hat, steps onto tin-foil soapbox...)

Much of the infrastructure that brings H20 to the City of Angles is pretty old, and all these water mains could be telling us something about the whole integrity of the place-

I knew a former career LA fireman who in the mid 1980s explained that there are water mains in the LA downtown area that is not on any map. They were put in so long ago and records were lost or destroyed. Also, he stated that the original mains were constructed from hollowed out redwood with tar...I suspect that these have been replaced by now...but no one really knows....
No way to confirm or disprove his statements...

"I think it means that if you're a plumbing firm and you dont want to agree to that wage, local enforcement can be activated to shut-down a job site and revoke licensure."

Way, way off base, unless you are talking about prevailing wage laws. In a unionized area, I can, on a non-union job, work for whatever I want, as long as meets min. wage & overtime law. The union might make my life miserable, if not worse, but "local authorities" could care squat.

If you really want complicated, look into what happens when one union contractor on a union labor agreement job goes on strike, and the other unions don't join him......

Is offshoring of jobs a problem for the western european countries that have strong unions ?

EHP, yeah, I wouldn't think you were a card carrying member.

I'm not even sure that they didn't include hamburger-flipping in "manufacturing."

But the BLS link on Annual Union Membership had a lot of interesting data.

Congress is pointing fingers at the rating agencies now. But when the rating agencies were doing their part to blow air into the bubble, Congress was cheerleading and pushing for more air. Congressmen reaped political benefits on the way up, and now they want to do the same on the way down. Totally two-faced. More importantly, they can't be trusted to provide the right direction for overall financial management of our economy. After all, they can't be right when they advocate something and its opposite.

“These two entities – Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – are not facing any kind of financial crisis,” Frank said to the Times. “The more people exaggerate these problems, the more pressure there is on these companies, the less we will see in terms of affordable housing.”

justakin, I was refering to Chicago in general and not any old "unionized area", Chicago is a deeply union mega-city where union power has been codified by statutes as well as indirectly. The context of the 1st comment was to contrast such areas to places where unions have little impact and where statutes demonstrate their minimal impact. In Chicago, some prevailing wage law statutes were supported and lobbied for by unions. This is an always changing situation.

Timothy Geithner, a koan Zen master

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said signs of economic recovery are “stronger” and have appeared “sooner” than expected, while reiterating it’s not yet time to roll back stimulus programs.
Geithner Says Recovery Signs Are ‘Stronger’ Than Expected - Bloomberg.com

I have no use for Democrats or moderates who are afraid to identify with a liberal progressive cause.

it may be early, but I'll drink to that. Skoal!

• please ignore all the data in the last week, I hope it will be better soon, don't crash the markets please
• please don't make me roll back stimulus measures IMF/g20, 80% of positive contribution to GDP is stimulus measures

I think we're headed more towards France and away from the UK as a model. Franco-Prussian instead of Anglo-Saxon. Of course there are many layers of adjustments to work through, and I don't know where we ultimately end up. But for the near future on-shoring will overtake off-shoring

I DO FEEL that Unions are complicit in the state of our Nation now, they went WAY overboard,
BTW- Unions are not some monolithic beast,...they are divided into locals and issues are voted upon in a democratic way by the employees of the specific companies. So if there are any beefs, the members of the union are responsible. That said, the democratic nature of the process gets us to where we are today. Yeah there are serious problems with the way things worked out (I'm thinking the Teamsters and UAW) but if the members had stayed focused on work issues and not pay issues, I think it would have worked out better.
My experience in the union shops was that we screwed the new hires in order to preserve the benefits of the old timers who were too scared to strike, [ Teamster Local 542 and 683] but that also reflects the complaints against the baby boomers by the next generations.

As far as the health care or financial regulation reforms are concerned, we are not heading anywhere.
Status quo is good enough, a bubble once in a while is good for you, we do not need no stinkin' socialism, thank you very much.

yogi, I'm not sure that change in your outlook is for the better. I understand and appreciate that you've decided to fight for what you believe is right . . . and that's a good thing.

But the ultimate purpose of a lawyer is persuasion and I think some of your persuasive skills are lost when you become confrontational at the drop of a hat. Also, profanity works better when everyone else is drunk.

I have no problem with a lifetime of identifying with liberal progressive causes, but then I have no problem with those who do not. They aren't my enemies, just adversaries, like the guy at the other table. The struggle for hearts and minds will continue long after both of us are gone. We need to accept that and do what we can to influence, i.e., persuade, others. That is all we can do.

I am glad to find (yet another) blog devoted primarily to political debate, which in the US consists of lobbing the ball back and forth between two ends of a one-dimensional court of play, in an effort to score debating points. It's not my cup of tea, but apparently the demand for this is insatiable, much like the demand for more sports shows on TV.

Does anyone know where there are good blogs that are focused primarily on learning more about housing and finance and economics?

Black Friday yesterday at my company. (large So Cal commercial constuction firm). Shut down an entire division. A lot of tears. Multi deacde employees let go. Some of these were true proffesionals, estimators, project managers, sales, etc.

Last year at this time we had a 2 year backlog of over $120M. This year - cut close to half. We have been weathering the recession for the past 2 years with no hiring and downsizing through attrtion. The commercial real estate depression hit us full force yesterday.

Not all doom and gloom - thankfully the service side is steady and our type of work can not be shipped overseas.

PR,
the blog is CalculatedRisk...and all his posts are very focused. CR also keeps his ego in check. I love his posts and his blog.

But my friend, i hear you....the reader comment portion of the blog is a different beast somedays...and this saturday morning it is particularly touchy...grumpy et al.
Not it's best light, for sure.

CR is probably enjoying a sunny day...as I will do so now.
Good luck, PR is ur search & efforts.
Ciao everyone. See yall lata.

racism is one of those things that you need not only the right intent, but the right context to make jokes with it

Yeah -- just ask Ted Danson, who nearly imploded his entire career with an ill-thought-through "blackface" routine.

What's wrong with being hispanic?

There's only something racist about driving through a hispanic
neighborhood, if there is something wrong with bein hispanic.