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"Recession rising like Phoenix?"
More like green shoots burning like... like... a burning thing.
this afternoon, goldman lowered its estimate to 250K...
My bet is 186k net and a 9.8%
CR - If you get a chance check the last thred, near the very end re lawyerliz and changing changing colors.
At least the market today went down on the bad news. At least I think that is why it went down. Hate those bad news days and the market goes up 200.
Yeah - there are no green shoots in Phoenix, except maybe some cactus.
The Shaqtus moved to Cleveland.
best wishes
basel
bet GS knows.
Margaret Wente: Happy days are here again. The central bankers say the recession is over. The markets are buoyant. Can we relax?
Nassim Taleb: Not at all. Central bankers have no clue. In the first place, the financial crisis was not a black swan. It was perfectly predictable. They ignored the phenomenal buildup in leverage since 1980. We still have too much debt, too many big banks, too much state sponsorship of risk-taking. And now we have six million more Americans who are unemployed – a lot more than that if you count hidden unemployment. Ben Bernanke saved nothing. He shouldn't be allowed in Washington. He's like a doctor who misses the metastatic tumour and says the patient is doing very well.
OctoPig™!
PHX CRE is FUBAR.
From the last thred:
"So what will the young people entering working age do?"
Some Universities are now offering guarentees of a job somewhere or else one more year of schooling and free tuition
Remember the debates that were held on this board two years ago whether people would have the nerve to "strategically default" (jingle mail)? Some argued at the time that it would never happen, people would not risk the social stigma or a credit down grade. How quaint that appears in hindsight.
Barley, I'll make it clear why I'm leaving the blue off. In December 2007, I put "Probable recession" on each graph. When the NBER finally called it, I took it off. I'll do something similar here.
Heck, we might see a double dip (not a forecast), but I think there is disappointment ahead.
josap, Goldman changed their estimate to 250K net loss today, from 200K. I think they were too pessimistic last month though.
best to all
speaking of phx... arizona state is not a small school. what are those kids going to do?
Is that still in 'Merica?
daveinsv wrote:
Tanta, God rest her soul, for all her healthy cynicism and historical perspective just didn't want to see that change in the American psyche. We saw how the new barons got rich and emulated. It's how we got here. It's why we can't get out.
HollywoodHack wrote:
I've asked this question to many of my conservative friends over the last half-year. I sure would love to know what parents think their kids are going to be doing in 5 or 10 years.
PS. I have less and less conservative friends....
Dawg says "It's why we can't get out"
Maybe we cant or wont accept reality.
"PS. I have less and less conservative friends...."
You might have added "I am a happy person, now."
Barley wrote:
There's many realities. Mythologies are what's important. People can sometimes move from one to another, but it's VERY traumatic.
Barley wrote:
HA! Naa. I used to be one of them. I understand them. I can predict what they will say. But, one has to be careful with the true-ism-believers of all kinds. Best to talk about the weather and sports.
It'll take a bigger shock till the shop-till-you-drop, charge-it-up and let-someone-else-take-the-blame culture shifts back towards something more "moral."
I was out w/kiddo today and missed Hotel RevPar post. One observation on that-- the airlines have significantly cut back on flights and increased fees. If you can't fly there, you can't book a room there. Any tourism dependent locale is giving away resort stays if you can manage to be one of the few with an airline ticket to the beach.
RD - I think Tanta said that at that time there was no evidence of it happening as the media was writting about it. I^d bet she^d be all for it now. She knew it wasnt priced in the rates but she also agreed that the little guys were getting crushed...
"PS. I have less and less conservative friends...."
Are your friends becoming less conservative, or do you have fewer conservative friends?
The only way to reality-check dogmatic believers is with the same methods used to deprogram cult members. Logic, evidence, etc. don't cut it.
Or perhaps your friends are staying the same and you're changing????
My kid is racing through UCLA in three years. Botany. The only botanist of the 39,650 enrolled. Agro/Bio/Pharma/Biotech companies are already interested. Grad school is surely necessary but it may turn out that it will be sponsored by an employer. Agronomy is "real college." The people who are going to suffer are the ticket punching line replaceable units. In aerospace in the 80s we called them FDHLRUs. Fat dumb and happy line replaceable units.
more than five-fold since March
DIOS MIO ! ! !
....lets say I DON'T BELIEVE we are in a "recovery" - CRE might be "the straw that broke the camel's back...."?
.....further negating any gains in ANY areas.
.......A 12-fold jump?? This might be the most telling statement - and, a glimpse into the future for MANY areas......not just Georgia, or Phoenix, or LV, or LA, or Det., or TN, or Cleve., or Chicago, or . . . . . . . . . . .
Dawg - Im big on AG right now. There is no way in hell to feed the explosive middle class in China and India.
"I've asked this question to many of my conservative friends over the last half-year. I sure would love to know what parents think their kids are going to be doing in 5 or 10 years."
It's hard to predict. However, if I had a kid starting college, I wouldn't be particularly worried. If they had just graduated, I'd be quite worried.
Excellent Bloomberg article on rational defaults, EXCEPT, it fails to mention the optimal solution: just stop paying and stay in your home.
All these articles mention "walking away". What fool would walk away, when it is going to take months, and more likely years, before the bank finalizes the foreclosure.
I keep saying, THAT IS the bailout for Main Street: rent-free living.
so have there been any significantly bearish days (like over 2% lost on the spx) where the dollar was equivalently weak in the past 13 months, or have they all been like today?
"if I had a kid starting college, I wouldn't be particularly worried"
if you see the debt/demographic/entitlement situation as being BETTER in five years, please, good sir, pass the
Dr N wrote:
No, they are getting more conservative. I'm sensing a 9/11 like increase in their aggravation, but they aren't exactly sure where to direct the anger this time. Lots of confusion. The people they used to worship - the honest hardworkin bidness leaders of Merica, the people who made this great and glorious nation what it is today - are not living up to expectations. The purity of Merica's leaders and institutions is in question, and it's all the leaders - not JUST the godless commie deamoncrats, as you'd expect.
Not a real
Who ever finds a target for your conservitive friends is going to have allot of power.
MommyKnows wrote:
No, don't think so. I still don't like outsiders. That means I've got to be EITHER a libertarians or a fascist. But, as I suspect ALL authority now, I have to be libertarian. So, I side more with the fascist than the socialists in the paranoia department.
A second call for people to try out the new Hoocoodanode layout. If you're not using IE 6 or a mobile device, give it a try!
Just go to My account>Edit, scroll down to Theme settings, and select 'cr_paned', rather than 'cr', then press Save.
I sitting here waiting for son of mp--who will probably be late for his own funeral--to take me out for my weekly burger with fries and thinking about the automobile discussion this morning.
It's really important to have a visual parts catalog, just so one can see how everything goes back together. Just a random thought.
I agree with CR. The consensus estimate seems too optimistic.
josap wrote:
You got that right. I'm sure Faux News is working on it.
"No, they are getting more conservative. I'm sensing a 9/11 like increase in their aggravation, but they aren't exactly sure where to direct the anger this time."
I would recommend they direct their anger at the Federal Reserve. I truly believe the Fed is at the root of many of our problems.
The Fed did not make the bad fiscal policy decisions, or the bad international policy decisions. But the Fed was, and has always been, the enabler, the catalyst that allows the government to act irresponsibly, and the financial elite to rob this country's citizens.
With a sound currency, our government and our businesses would have to act a bit more rationally.
People like to blame our problems on the free market, but how free are our markets when short term interest rates are set by committee, centrally planned like the USSR economy? A pure fiat currency controlled by a central organization is a recipe for disaster, and a disaster is what we got.
Let me tell you about my day...
I attended the Alameda County (CA) foreclosure auction, held on the Courthouse steps. (REALLY!)
Motivation was home that son rents in was scheduled to be auctioned today. This was my first foreclosue auction.
Synopsis:
There were about 40 attendees, of which 8-10 acted like serious bidders. Everyone, including the auctioneers, was on a first-name basis. There were three auctioneers, each had +/- 100 homes. Each read a list of postponed homes, about 80% of those scheduled! Most were postponed for about a month by "Mutual Agreement."
During the bidding, at times two auctioneers were active at the same time. I couldn't tell why there were three, and even the bidders weren't sure which auctioneer had the home that they were interested in. Of the homes that did go to auction 90% got no bid. The other 10% saw rather vigorous bidding, usually among 3-4 bidders. (These tended to be low-prices, under $150k whole the average minimum bid was ~$400k.)
On the surface, everyone was quite collegial. The bidding process was quite low key, no shouting or waving; everyone not bidding just backed off a bit and the active bidders stood in a semi-circle in front of the auctioneer and raised until they didn't.
One "winner" showed the auctioneer an unsatisfactory check; the auctioneer rejected it and awarded the previous bidder the home for the original value plus one cent!
Oh. The auction of my son's home was cancelled.
The purity of Merica's leaders and institutions is in question, and it's all the leaders - not JUST the godless commie deamoncrats, as you'd expect.
A little thread music ( and a tip of the ten gallon hat to the god fearing Mericans around Jackson Mississippi )
YouTube - Charlie Daniels Band - Uneasy Rider 88'
.....that's what I need for the John Deere sitting in my livingroom (quite seriously).
True Conservatives are gaining numbers and influence but also staying quiet. Look over the CR comments these last few weeks. No end of deliberately outrageous provocations left hanging with no replies. No big deal. The pendulum is a pendulum after all.
Fantastic Photos of our Solar System | The Big Picture (Cool photos...)
Ill check out the new layout Ken!
ghostfaceinvestah wrote:
WAY to intellectual for the teaming-masses. It has to be simple. The obvious target - "those people" - isn't working right now. Even the socialists are being to suspect their dear-leader. Interesting times.
Is there some reason we shouldn't take you seriously?
Rob Dawg wrote:
The words are meaningless now. Conservative is as meaningless as Liberal. At one time, in the dim past, BOTH used to be for smaller government!
So, are you talking about fascist conservatives - big government for the benefit of the connected with team-masses of their dumbasses lead around by a Party controlled deity with lots of patriotism - OR - libertarian conservatives?
.....I tip towards 'snark', but not THIS time........
Ahhh, nothing is more empowering than being lamely defined by one's opposition. Nice fascist reference mixed in with a large dose of libertarian conflation and disdain simultaneously.
"People like to blame our problems on the free market, but how free are our markets when short term interest rates are set by committee, centrally planned like the USSR economy?"
Ghost hope you don't think I'm picking on you as I agree with much of your post except the part above.
The fed does not set rates, they follow the market. Greenspan admitted as much in the 80s, John gailbraith and others have talked about this this in various books.
The biggest power the fed has is the general blind belief in their power.
They're pretty useless in many aspects.
"True Conservatives "
I agree, the word Conservative is meaningless now, given the horrible track record of the Repub party.
Right f*king on.
The day that I can't pay my mortgage, even as I've been ahead for years is the day I stay in the house that I helped increase in value through my sweat and tears and labor until Homeland Security forces me out or I die trying to stay in.
After , I pity the fools that think they might be getting a "deal" . if you know what i mean and im sure you do.
Barry was the last real conservative and he's dead now.
It's been downhill for the Republicans ever since.
Rob Dawg wrote:
That works both ways, Dawg.
I wouldn't take it as a sign. I think that those who have been around know the difference between deliberate provocation and a real argument, and just say "pass" to the former now. I also think many here respect others beyond whether or not they agree with some of their ideology. And see no reason to automatically oppose everything they disagree with, when considering the source.
In short, the place is becoming a club. Even has a smoking room.
looks like crossfire in here
"Ghost hope you don't think I'm picking on you as I agree with much of your post except the part above."
Fair enough, there is some truth to that.
And granted, far worse is their other shortcomings.
The thought that they were supposed to be a regulator, but in fact did no regulation at all, as one example.
Rob Dawg wrote:
There's EITHER fascism, socialism, libertarianism, OR liberalism. Not ALOT of choices. BIG government or SMALL government. One big happy family OR survival of the fittest. 4 combinations. Take your pick. I'm a libertarian. SMALL government, survival-of-the-fittest.
Too many Denninger all caps to parse effectively. Sorry.
There is no way in hell to feed the explosive middle class in China and India.
Try C4.
National City Bank monthly business review: Thus far business in Sept. has shown some improvement, but not strongly enough to convince that the uptrend is here to stay. However, without minimizing the depression, which is caused by serious and fundamental maladjustments, we also shouldn't “magnify the difficulties out of all due proportion.” While it's true no two depressions are identical, they have been studied for many years and general characteristics are fairly well understood; business activity indexes in July and Aug. touched lows of 1921, “warranting the assumption that the decline must have nearly, if not entirely, run its course.”
Let's do the time warp again.
http://newsfrom1930.blogspot.com/
If they are, then they really weren't conservatives-
It's burger time!
With lots of bacon and cheese!
And greasy fries!
Expect it to be as heavily manipulated as possible without delving into downright fantasy.
I have in the past proposed a series of updates to the metrics which aid in the accurate gathering of statistics
That should result in significantly improved employment data and PROVE the recession is over.
~splat
Who is Nassim Taleb?
From the story on strategic defaults
Staying Put
Jennifer Albaugh, 34, plans to keep her Las Vegas home, where prices have dropped 49 percent since she bought it in December 2004, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index.
Albaugh, who owns a fabric store, might have sold her 3,000-square-foot house for as much as $550,000 four years ago, she said. Today she owes more than $300,000 on her mortgage and says her house isn’t worth even close to that. She and her husband are still looking to buy a bigger home for their two kids, especially while rates are low and might turn their current home into a vacation rental, she said.
Why on earth does she need more than 3000 sq ft for a family of four?
Left/Right divide less on this issue?
Rasmussen poll reports (July 2009) questioned 1000 adults & 75% favored auditing the Fed and making the results available to the public...only 9% thought the audit was a bad idea and opposed it...
Has the NBER declared an end to the recession? Doesn't seem right to stop shading the charts unless they have....
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 4:56 pm
reply ignore user
Too many Denninger all caps to parse effectively. Sorry.
CAN SOMEONE PLEASE PARSE FOR DAWG !!&@&@!!
From the Oct. 1, 1930 news
French Foreign Min. Briand advocates aid to Germany; predicts 4M German unemployed this winter; “It is an inevitable law that misery and suffering push people toward extremes. ... Germany crushed is a danger for peace.”
Monseur Briand had his act together.
WF Buckley wasn't too bad either-
I'd expect Pheonix to start picking up a little with the influx of snowbirds. Well at least the ones who can still afford to winter there.
Some areas eg. Mesa, end up awash with aging mid-westerners escaping the winter.
~splat
Mike in Long Island wrote:
Stupid is as Stupid does? Honestly, I don't know why they would want or need more space for just a family of 4 plus a pet or two (Pets are optional). She clearly hasn't learned anything from the current arrangement so maybe she should just be sacrificed to The Farce because the alternative is too painful for all parties involved.
Why on earth does she need more than 3000 sq ft for a family of four?
Status symbol ?
Trophy house ?
"Why on earth does she need more than 3000 sq ft for a family of four? "
Nice catch, I skipped right over that.
Why, indeed? In Vegas, no less. It is not cheap to keep a house that big cool in the summer.
And, expectations. 3000 is the new 2000. 2000 WAS the new 1500.
They'll walk on the old house after they buy the new one. guaran-f'n-teed.
Perhaps they're all 6'6" and 400lbs ? Plus the pets are Great Danes ? I could see 3000sq.ft being a little cramped then.
~splat
nades, the photos are awe inspiring. The machiavelian machinations of these mere humans on planet earth are well, trivial. We've missed the big picture and choose to concentrate on the minutia of printed green paper. Think about this printed green paper that we pretend is valuable. More valuable than a human being. We've bought into the psychosis that the more green paper you have the richer you are. When did we choose paper as wealth and allowed the defective monkeys to declare human life as valueless unless you own reams of green paper?
Mike in Long Island wrote:
Cheaper than therapy. Come over, babysit my brood. Best form of birth control ever.
Seriously, the new 3000sf is the old 2000sf. Modern SFRs (say roughly post mid 1990s) layouts are huge wastes of space.
dawg,
On the so-called 'conservative' Right, there's a divide growing between the Libertarians and the Neo-cons...
Go here and read please
"Rasmussen poll reports (July 2009) questioned 1000 adults & 75% favored auditing the Fed and making the results available to the public...only 9% thought the audit was a bad idea and opposed it..."
See, it isn't THAT complicated an issue for people to get riled up about.
I'd bet 900 of the 1000 people don't even fully understand what the Fed does, they just understand that more transparency is better than less transparency.
I'd be happy if a lot of Americans saw the Fed as the boogieman, even if they didn't understand what the Fed does, if that is what it takes.
merchants of fear wrote:
again with the other side trying to define. Who are these neo-cons and why would you consider them conservative?
If the neo-cons were conservatives, they'd call them conservatives, not "new" conservatives.
Why on earth does she need more than 3000 sq ft for a family of four?
May be the four of them can't stand each other? I know a family of two in Fremont, live in a 5000 sqft house.
Rob Dawg wrote:
She was from the Midwest NOT California or Arizona... she saw the farm crisis out here where people literally starved themselves to keep the farm even though so hopelessly underwater that if they did they wouldn't come up for air for a generation [a generation later its not only up for air its a freaking bubble again!!!]. She just believed everyone would behave the way they did then, did there. Not so.
If you believe the U.S. government is the solution to problems in America, you're a liberal.
If you believe the U.S. government is the solution to problems in Iraq, you're a neo-conservative.
Cinco-X wrote:
The libertarian test. The argument on this site is ridiculous. People don't pick an "economic system" first (left and right ISN’T economic). They pick an economic system based on their physiological attributes. The one-big-happy-family people (socialists) don't pick socialism FIRST and THEN decided to help everybody with MY money.
See the glossary: PT's (Political Types).
The public thought the Neo-cons were 'conservative'...it was a trick...big wars = big spending(bailouts = big spending too)...once the govt is broke, it's easier to see the rhetoric vs. the results (& the costs)
Wear a stripe on your hood at our next klan meeting and I'll buy you a bourbon and branch.
If you must know, a lot of them were Democrats before that party went anti-Israel. They tend to be adventurists; see Paul_Wolfowitz-
I just think of the parties as corporate vikings that come sailing in ever season for a little rape and pillaging. No offense to real viking of course...
Ken - in the new layout, where are the polls?
....what a bunch of clucking hens! It's none of our business what she buys with HER money OR her circumstances. Geeze......Loose the envy and nitpicking - it's not becoming.....
Don't make it out to CA much anymore, and the Klan's not active here in your home state of MA. Besides, never been invited before, but thanks anyway.....
You are correct to point out adventurism as a classical failing of the true conservatives. I suspect it stemmed from an unbroken string of positive outcomes without a basic analysis of the reasons or consequences.
Oh well, conservatives are in the same boat the liberals were in 30 years ago. Ridiculed out of existence. Somebody better figure out some new labels, or we won't even know who were mad at.
Off to the health-club for me.
Long time since I have seen a Conservative Democrat.
Black Star Ranch wrote:
Looks more like she bought it with my money.
Would one of you "true conservatives" care to define "true conservatism"? TIA.
yeah key analysis missing & still missing after 8 years of war...
...but Dawg does the Klan still really exist? I doubt if many would actually join it nowadays...unless they were mentally challenged...or AGENTS...
Has it occurred to anybody that perhaps no one has the one right way to govern, administer, plan for, live in a 21st century society?
There have been climax societies, analogous to climax ecologies, but just because they were stable doesn't mean the people who lived within them loved their way of life. I don't know.
I remember an anthropologist who had lived in an indigenous society in the Peruvian Amazon talk about the attack of nerves of a hunter who had just been taunted by the women folk to go out and catch some meat - or else.
We want meat, they said, and if we don't get it we'll eat ******* instead.
I suspect that just represents folks using the ignore button.
A lot people think they can provide witty political insights.
Even in the rare case where they are correct, they forget repetitiveness yields a geometric progression.
Wit .. half wit ... quarter wit ...
BULLLLSHIIIIIIIIIT on both parties.
Not on a bet. That's not part of their master plan. At least I've heard.
the Living room at my old McMansison was 576 square feet. Plus a family room, dinning for ten and... Buy what you like and can afford!
....did I miss something again?............LOL
True Conservatism is the new improved populist(but still less shrill patriot neo-con) version a la Palin...
A lot of them tried being Conservative Republican's for a while. That was, somewhat a result of Monica-gate. Now they're stuck between where they've been, and what Bush/Cheney laid on them about Iraq. They can't decide which is worse, where they are, or what they'd have to become to go back to where they started at (a Conservative Democrat).
Well. Odds are she will walk on the house she's in once she gets a larger one. She owe's 300k = $2600/mo if its a 30 yr fixed. Not being familiar with the Vegas area I can only guess that you can rent stuff for a bit cheaper than that. Once she takes a hike the property will go back to a bank - if its one of the 19 TBTF then we are most certainly paying for it.
No envy here - just somewhat incredulous someone could feel the need for more space for a family of 4. Now if its to run a grow op - that makes sense
There is a long way to go with genetically modified food plants... Also I have been thinking of high rise grow buildings powered by nuclear plants... probably more expensive than using open land, but better than starvation...
"True Conservatism is the new improved populist(but still less shrill patriot neo-con) version a la Palin..."
People are scared, which means they are highly averse to innovation, unless they're also truly desperate.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
My LR is 720sf. This is a bad thing?
True conservatives, true liberals. Whatever those labels mean anymore, just misdirection and the choosing of sides for who you blame.
NARA's comment about shifting myths is a worthy description of what is happening. All of us can agree on the basics of what we wanted/thought America to be, being shown for what it actually is day after day is forcing a change. The common ideals of being American have to stand up to this crisis. Maintaining faith in the Constitution as the guiding light it has provided since our nations inception is critical. If we the people can overcome the manufactured differences provided for consumption we have a good chance of being hardened and more capable in continuing this great endeavor. Facing our failures and rectifying our mistakes is the first step in this process. Blaming each other and not focusing on those that hijacked our system and defined their success by greed and their narrow interests is the first obstacle on solving this crisis.
Two choices face us, are we victims or are we responsible citizens who recognize the civic duty required to speak truth to power. Paint whatever label you want but those are the two categories I see the masses falling into, both have pitfalls but only one choice gives the hope for having further choices as we work through this period of change. Auditing the Fed, implementing a fair tax system, limiting campaign contributions, and standing up for the Bill of Rights are all steps in the right direction to make this a functioning republic. Can we see past the labels and recognize each other as Americans?
pavel.chichikov (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 7:21 pm
Has it occurred to anybody that perhaps no one has the one right way to govern, administer, plan for, live in a 21st century society?
Perhaps by the time we reached the twenty-first century, we were to have moved beyond the need to be ruled, having become self-governing moral agents. Hehehe. "FAIL!" as the kiddies say.
But it is worth exploring - can our postmodern, postindustrial, schizophrenic and strongly pecuniary society even BE ruled?
:My LR is 720sf. :
What's the seating capacity?
Seeing as how as a society we have been living beyond our means socially, monetarily and environmentally for atleast 20 years with the scars as a society and planet to show for it IMO it's a valid discussion point to ask whether any couple needs a 3000 sq foot house.
Come again ?
Principal and interest on $300K for 30 years at 5% is $1610.46 a month.
"But it is worth exploring - can our postmodern, postindustrial, schizophrenic and strongly pecuniary society even BE ruled?"
Damn right it can. Like horses can be broken. But we aren't domesticated animals - are we?
dryfly,
It has now gotten seriously weird at work- the fourth estate is involved- I can no longer comment about it all.
I will update again when I am free to speak about it- if I ever am.
Someday this war's gonna end...
RD,
Not at all, I remember when we could barely get into the room with the Christmas tree and all the gifts! Lots of fun chasing kids indoors during the winter.
'Left and Right isn't economic...'
No income differences in political affiliation?
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Dance floor retracted over the pool or no?
Alt:
20 comfortably, 30 uncomfortably, 40 very comfortably. Most of the latter spill out onto the lawn anyway.
poic (profile) wrote on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 7:30 pm
Seeing as how as a society we have been living beyond our means socially, monetarily and environmentally for atleast 20 years with the scars as a society and planet to show for it IMO it's a valid discussion point to ask whether any couple needs a 3000 sq foot house.
Money is the new messiah. With enough of it, you can live in your own universe and ignore the laws of reality, the needs of larger society and the burden of a conscience.
On the other hand, today's market drop was very nice to my portfolio value;-}
Off to soccer practice for my youth- the real world can wait a while!
Someday this war's gonna end...
"Odds are she will walk on the house she's in once she gets a larger one."
I can't say that with any degree of certainty. If she DOES, it is first and foremost the lenders fault. She has a contract with her original lender. She stops paying, they take the house - real simple. If the second lender loans her money - it's HIS bad (oh well.......lenders continue to be real stupid). If fraud is proven, then it's a different story.
Externalized Costs +1
Anybody see the massive swing and a miss on 3q Canadian GDP
0 versus 0.5 % and major miss on yoy as well.
Nice catch. Thanks for pointing out my error. Though with the economic news out of Arizona it's possible the tax levy is increased so she's paying $1000/mo in property tax.
"Dance floor retracted over the pool or no?
Alt:
20 comfortably, 30 uncomfortably, 40 very comfortably. Most of the latter spill out onto the lawn anyway. "
Actually, an ambassador's residence not too far from us sold for 2 million and a fraction - a bargain. It has a ballroom with a little balcony for the ensemble to play.
Most of the neighborhood is middle class. DC is so strange.
oh, Nikki, that's just ugly.
If Republicans have all the money then why aren't the Democrats smart enough to join the Republican party! Money problem solved!
time to get short.
Hi. I missed the thread with the handwringing about college grads and jobs and since it seems some sound uninterested in the eternal conservative/liberal discussion and also not too enthralled with the how much house does a family need argument I figured I would add this link
Cover Letters From Hell - Killian & Company Advertising - BRANDING AGENCY CHICAGO | BRANDING AGENCY | BRANDING COMPANY | CHICAGO ADVERTISING AGENCY | ADVERTISING AGENCY | ADVERTISING COMPANY CHICAGO | BRAND CONSULTANTS CHICAGO | BRANDING COMPANY CHIC
A small diversion perhaps and some small grimaces of disbelief and some snarky humor instead of the oh noes not this AGAIN.
I know I do not write well however I am aware of that fact and am employed accordingly. I do not send out cover letters for internships, and if I did I at least know myself enough to proofread. I think many college grads are going to have an even more important education coming as the lack of jobs separate the wheat from the chaff so to speak.
I have to admit I am hoping to see a coverletter on their newsletter that include LOL or OMG or, and I know I hope in vain, WTF.
"If Republicans have all the money then why aren't the Democrats smart enough to join the Republican party!"
One Party state? Believe me, you don't want it.
Mike in Long Island wrote:
OMFG. Prop 13 is going to go viral if this is anything like the truth on the ground. $300k house with a $12k hit annually needs 4% to stay even. Not.
if your master bath can't also be used as a racquetball court it's too small. call your local REALTOR! for help.
Dance floor retracted over the pool or no?
Alt:
20 comfortably, 30 uncomfortably, 40 very comfortably. Most of the latter spill out onto the lawn anyway.
If I take the helicopter off the roof of my house I find I can fit another 20 guests into my parties.
If push really comes to shove I can temporarily clear the ferrari, rolls and bughatti out of my 20 car garage and move the bar downstairs as well.
(:
Note the smiley at the end of my post.
There should be a universally accepted /snark off smiley tag
pavel.chichikov (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 7:31 pm
"But it is worth exploring - can our postmodern, postindustrial, schizophrenic and strongly pecuniary society even BE ruled?"
Damn right it can. Like horses can be broken. But we aren't domesticated animals - are we?
LOL, nope, not at all. We put ourselves through years of education to get the job that we dislike so we can work at it for 2080 hours a year so that we get that have all this stuff we don't really want or need, but have to have in order to emulate what the nice-looking man on teevee tells us is a "normal" life, and by god he's smiling and has pretty white teeth so I believe him. If that's not freedom and autonomy, I don't know what is.
that may the strangest post I've seen on here in quite some time.... so many prying questions to ask...
Resistance,
Agree totally, but what fills the void when you wake the masses?
One one party for me but like a lot of people I would sure like to see a realistic third party. Both are different mobs of organized crime. We need a fresh star badly.
.......I must be an idiot.......what is "the fourth estate"?
what is "the fourth estate"?
the press
"We need a fresh star badly."
That's what they said in 1933.
Maybe there is no answer, because the question is wrong.
Or you could just shrug as the Italian proverb has it: No answer? No problem.
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 7:45 pm
Resistance,
Agree totally, but what fills the void when you wake the masses?
After a period of years of self-loathing and self-doubt, eventually they win to the realization of their own insignificance, impermanence and mortality.
Good luck AllenM. Maybe you could start working on a tell-all book and hit the circuit. By the time you are done writing it Oprahs audience will be into it and you can get on her booklist. You'll be set for life!
Oh and for the record I would buy it just to get the scoop.
information is available instantly everywhere and to everyone. the term ,"the masses" implies a disconnected, ignorant whole. we live in a world of "little masses" all wonderfully informed and prepared. all waiting for the other idiots to catch up.
Damn, hard to concentrate on CR while at starbucks when the preppily dressed guy sitting near me just cut the cheese loudly and absolutely nonchalantly for the SECOND time.
What is happening to society? I'll give it a pass the first time but two is making a bad trend.
sneering nihilist (profile) wrote on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 7:50 pm
information is available instantly everywhere and to everyone. the term ,"the masses" implies a disconnected, ignorant whole. we live in a world of "little masses" all wonderfully informed and prepared. all waiting for the other idiots to catch up.
Yep - it's the blind bleeding the blind.
"Agree totally, but what fills the void when you wake the masses?"
Something unwelcome, usually.
"More capital will not stop the next crisis"
FT, at FT.com / Comment / Opinion - More capital will not stop the next crisis
The author posits a test for any set of regulatory changes: It must have prevented the recent systemic crisis. He dismisses higher capital requirements, because most banks would not have had enough capital to absorb a big systemic problem.
But what he is missing (and maybe is missing from the current proposals for changes in capital requirements), is that counter-cyclical capital requirements could act very powerfully to limit bubbles, as well as provide a cushion when they deflate.
Consider the housing market as an example. Let's suppose that any financial institution that invested in home loans had to hold capital against losses based on the difference between the loan and a conservative estimate of the house's market value, less foreclosure or other repossession or resale expenses. And let's suppose that the conservative value is based on the lesser of the current value and a reversion to the historical mean value.
For the historical mean, let's suppose that regulators required the use of current values adjusted to a 20-30 year mean using Case-Shiller type indexes, modified as well as possible for local factors and facts particular to the home. This is not that different than the algorithms used by Zillow and the other online home value estimation services. But the requirement here would be that aggregate home values be calibrated to broad C-S type estimates, to remove most obvious sources of bias.
What would have happened with such a system in place? Would we have had our bubble? No one knows for sure, but I doubt it. As home prices increased, the lending institutions would have had to hold capital per loan that was a greater and greater % of the loan amount. Every dollar loaned in excess of the long term average price of the property would require lots of extra capital. In response, lenders would have required higher down payments, or charged a lot more for low down payment loans. This almost certainly would have prevented the bubble from getting as big as it did.
There is a slight problem with all of this, and that's the govt home loan schemes - repayment guarantees etc. These completely undermine the beneficial effect of such a counter-cyclical capital regime, because the govt loans would underprice risk, and would not get more conservative as the bubble inflates and the private lenders pull back due to capital constraints. In fact, as the private lenders pulled back in the bubble, the govt schemes would be loosened in response to political pressure from Congress, producing exactly the wrong impact.
Apart from that one minor detail, such a scheme would pass the tests of being economically efficient, and would have prevented the recent crisis from occurring.
"What is happening to society? I'll give it a pass the first time but two is making a bad trend."
I see it in the way some people drive.
Is that you with the latte, poic?
patientrenter wrote:
"More capital did not stop this next crisis"
There, fixed that for ya.
Terry wrote:
Under Toys.
bwhahaha!!! wow. that's terrible. funny. but, terrible.
weclome to the new usa.
Resistance,
Again I agree with you, but that requires an evolution of consciousness in my book. I hold hubris is partly wired in and a self defense mechanism. It requires discipline, dedication, and determination to work the brain into shape to accept your own sense of self through time so to speak...Vacuums like this give you angels or demons to sing lullabies to the masses...the emptiness must be filled...I have tried most of my last ten years to echo versions of what you just said...people really don't like it, like they could stone you, don't like it.
And meanwhile, back at the mall. Lots of stock, lots of cars in the parking lot, some discounting, but not drastically. Lots of clerks standing around talking. And as usual, one slightly less glamorous girl is doing all the work. The fashion pecking order has not changed, unfortunately.
"Apart from that one minor detail, such a scheme would pass the tests of being economically efficient, and would have prevented the recent crisis from occurring."
These schemes tend to be models. A model of a locomotive can't pull a full-sized train.
Pico, latte gives me the runs lol
well I just noticed he has a travel bag so maybe it's some sort of cultural way of showing appreciation /snark
".the emptiness must be filled."
Who was it who said: Go with God or go with the demons? Lewis?
interesting. that sounds a lot like my recently previous employer.... an IT consulting firm.
go figure.
Ken Lewis? We know which way he went.
Probably Lewis, I read him a lot in my younger days. But I don't recall the quote off the top of my head.
"I just noticed he has a travel bag so maybe it's some sort of cultural way of showing appreciation /snark"
Not in any culture I ever heard of. Belch, maybe. But eat with your left hand, you eat alone. And what you describe.
one thousand one hundred twenty comment on Hoocoodanode 10/1/09
FTW
edit +1 for the FTMFW
Pavel,
funny you mention driving habits. I'm seeing a lot of agression on the roads lately. My wife and I like to sometimes going for evening drives when there is little traffic. It used to ne a relaxing sort of thing but not so much anymore.
Last night doing this we were on an empty stretch of road going the speed limit and got someone flashing the lights and finally blowing by us illegaly in the oncoming lane all pissed at us for not speeding.
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 7:57 pm
Resistance,
I have tried most of my last ten years to echo versions of what you just said...people really don't like it, like they could stone you, don't like it.
Yes indeed - when I was younger (i.e. early twenties) I called my still-naive but slowly-developing philosophy of life Active Nihilism. I still sort of like that term, actually. Acceptance of that emptiness by no means entails atheism or materialism.
pavel you asked if we are domesticated animals. i think the answer to that question is unequivocal. it is a resounding YES! are we supposed to be...? is it right for us to be...? obviously not.
Live by real estate. Die by real estate.
Saw a couple folks that fits like a Tee in Las Vegas. They were still holding when the music stopped and they didn't seem to realize the game was over. (They do now.)
The city is still as strange a place as it's ever been - just bigger still.
Residential prices have been ticking up. Volume is up, especially on all cash purchases and FHA loans. Typical 1500 sf townhouse style on a 2000 sf lot built in the last 5-7 years was around $75-$80/sf. No one there wanted to admit that the FTHB tax credit might be the sole reason for the apparent recent trend. Had to laugh when informed that SFR on 5000-6000 sf lots was marketed as 'estate size lots.'
Commercial space was devastated in many areas. A classic case of overbuilt with 20,000 to 40,000 sf strip malls finished but completely empty, as in 'see-through' and with vacant pads out front. I would have to believe it will take a few years just to absorb what's already there and not being used.
Didn't get to check out industrial space, but heard there was ample available now that construction companies and related industrial have pulled out.
Multi-family allegedly was still at high occupancy rates with typical rents in the $850 to $1250, depending on location to some degree, but quality mostly. Location does seem important with regard to travel times for local workers.
Saw a couple of the classic multifamily disasters waiting to be demolished, ManhattanWest and Vanguard Lofts. Absolutely sick projects that couldn't possibly be finished for what the final product would be worth.
Office rents in Class B or B+ were still in the $1.60-$1.80/sf range (that would be $19-$21+ for you folks on the East Coast.) Not a lot of vacancies yet, but more are expected. Seemed like a lot of quiet desperation with people holding on because, well, what else can you do but shut it down.
Casinos were fairly active, strip was crowded, high end restaurant had only a few tables open most of the evening. Hired help said things are slower than they would like, but not that bad. (Of course those hired help still had a job.)
Just my impressions and the info I received from those who work that market.
"Last night doing this we were on an empty stretch of road going the speed limit and got someone flashing the lights and finally blowing by us illegaly in the oncoming lane all pissed at us for not speeding."
poic, exactly. Same here, and even the same sort of action. Sometimes I catch a glimpse of the driver's face. It can look like someone on his way home to blow his brains out.
I've seen that kind of stress.... in a different context.
Resistance,
Bingo...same here. Still remember trying to explain to a group of fundamentalist Christians when I was 21 that I thought Jesus' message was essentially a selfish one, not a selfless one. How a completely rational man would want his neighbor to be happy and content, so he could enjoy his own happiness in turn...and this was selfish desire. Didn't go over well. Accused of being a Satanist. Live and learn...unless your hard headed like me and keep banging your head against closed doors.
animals are not educated, they are trained. the methods are behavioral conditioning, which uses pain and pleasure, reward and punishment. the genius of our society consists in the clever illusion that our economic system is anything more than an advanced training course, and in the insidious notion that money is freedom - not the stimulus that animates the whole scam.
I believe if you are in right field and right place you are still in demand coming out of school. At least here it Texas you are. I am in a small town and know most of the kids in school now. I have talked to 3 in the last few weeks that will be graduating in December. All have good job offers. $50,000+ One girl has several offers - one of which is Dow in their ag sales.
I would love a 3000 sq ft house. A big barn would nice too.
Why?
A library.
A music room.
A nanny suite for my kid to live in and maybe her kids
A pool room.
A T1 line (full) going into my server room
The barn to put lots of machinery and old tools in with a work space.
"pavel you asked if we are domesticated animals. i think the answer to that question is unequivocal. it is a resounding YES! are we supposed to be...? is it right for us to be...? obviously not."
sneering nihilist, you have just reconfirmed the greatness of the novel 1984. That Hideous Strength, by C.S.Lewis is also very strong.
hey kcoop howzabout a daily comment count on user,
+ total user comments.
+ comment # in the thread...
minor request. *trapped in the new theme and cant get out.
"These schemes tend to be models. A model of a locomotive can't pull a full-sized train"
Today, most banks hold capital equal to 5-10% of their assets. So, all the bank rules today boil down, very nearly, to this germ:
Hold capital equal to 7% of assets, plus or minus 40% of the resulting amount.
I am explaining the germ of an alternative capital scheme that is clearly counter-cyclical, and clearly technically possible (witness Zillow and cyberhomes etc.), at least for the (very large) portion of loans backing homes.
Explain why you think this germ cannot be the foundation of a better capital requirement. (I am not in awe of the US regulatory system for capital for financial institutions. I have operated inside the system. You should not be in awe either.)
pavel -- I've seen that kind of stress.... in a different context.
if you are so inclined, please share one of these moments
most banks hold capital equal to 5-10% of their assets.
You forgot the most important word in the rules "5-10% of their risk-weighted assets". That is why the CDO's and MBS were in demand: if they were AAA-rated, they required the banks to hold no capital. And, of course, banks are never wrong about risk.
poic wrote:
He's a banker or realtor, and a rock ribbed conservative. He farts in your face to show his contempt of the peasants.
I was going to ask if he used the "Your Mother Was a Hamster and Your Father Smelt of Elderberries!" line after he polluted your air poic.
I would love a 3000 sq ft house. A big barn would nice too. - nova
Then come over here and buy my place! I'll give you a great deal, and throw in a passel 'o head-case fundamentalist neighhbors to boot!
I talked to my neighbor today. She is mid 50's and she has been unemployed almost a year. Formerly a manager in a bank home loan processing unit. I asked if she had any callbacks. No. She told me "that means I just need to try harder."
I agreed. What else can you say
"You forgot the most important word in the rules "5-10% of their risk-weighted assets"
Rajesh, thank you. I was trying to convey to Pavel that, simple as my suggested scheme was, it was just as capable of being adapted to the complexity of the real world as the existing capital framework, which can also be boiled down to something very simple at its core, even though it has thousands of refinements (including some that are abused, like the one you mentioned).
What is the fourth estate?
There is a technical seasonal adjustment thing that people should be on the look out for in tomorrows numbers. Normally jobs drop a lot in Sept as all the college and HS kids go back to school, as a result the BLS adjusts for that based on historical averages. This year, most college kids could not find jobs, so they will not be losing them in Sept. This could cause a "postive surprise".
Re: "dampen what is already going to be a weak economic recovery,”"
The fantasy of a recovery is being born out by the reality that the double recession will kick our ass -- the broken economic models and make believe hype of a jobless recovery is udder bullshit! (insert cow udders icon back there a few words)
I noticed that there is an empty seat near Mr. Cheese near me and as I mentioned to pico lattes do affect me in a rather negative and silent way. Perhaps I should pick up a fresh latte and Sally over to the seat next to him and show him how we hand out justice American Style.
Actually the whole "turn the other cheek" thing might be the exact solution!!
I keep trying to keep up but know I am falling behind.
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 8:18 pm
She told me "that means I just need to try harder."
I agreed. What else can you say
"You have to understand, most of these people are not ready to be unplugged. And many of them are so inert, so hopelessly dependent on the system, that they will fight to protect it. "
Dirk,
is bls even useful at this point. I dont recall it showing anything other than positive adjustments since the beginning of this recession.
that's okay. if you fall behind too far just remember: there's always violence.
I've been pitching the coincidence of the timing of the fall of the Communism and what appears to me-to be the fall of Capitalism, almost exactly 20 years apart.
The common bond will be the symbols of oppression.
1989: Berlin Wall
2009: Mortgage Law
Just as a trickle turned into hundreds, then into thousands of people that no longer saw the Berlin Wall as something to fear, is what's happening here in terms of people defaulting on mortgages.
How desperate are the powers that be currently?
They have chosen to denigrate the elites that are defaulting, by calling them "Ruthless Defaulters"
I don't know about you, but I don't really know anybody that wants to be known as 'Ruthless' .
Just another mindfvck by ruthless people...
Nikkei apparently doesn't want to be out done by the dow...down 245? Am I reading this right? Elmo on world tour tonight?
Reminds me of "Ruthless People" and "other people's money"
Juvenal Delinquent, do you have any money?
If you do, can I have, er, borrow it?
TIA
Jd,
capitalism and communism are like yin and yang. Once communism failed capitalism was proven to be a "success". Thus no need to balance capitalism anymore and the rise in the worst excesses of unfettered capitalism.
I'm hearing & seeing that EVERYWHERE - cash flow crunch is really kicking in in a lot of organizations [public & private]... love to hear the dirt when you are able to let it out.
Giving money generally never cures anything, prolongs problems and reality. We grew and gave about 150 pounds of veggies to the Senior center this year for the first time. Going to expand next years garden.
Did you ever hear the phrase 'your mother wears combat boots?
XXXXX, WF Buckley was ok in his later years, but how can you like a big booster of Franco?
A jobless recovery built out of phantom earnings and accounting illusions -- total bullshit! Did I mention broken economic models?
I callin a poll bubble Colonial still open
1
¥
yogi,
THIS MEANS YU
Another Portland observation. Some of the "spare change" kids downtown are sporting rather expensive jeans and what-they-think-is-punk jewelry in addition to pricey skunked hair and tats.
Anyone else ever get the impression sometimes that bank failure might be a renegade bot off the reservation so to speak...
Bush handed the bullshit baton to Obama, and now Obama is using the tried and true process of bullshitting the people to a point where, if he says we have a jobless recovery, then by God, if we say it enough, it just may be the truth -- kinda like Iraq.... Kinda like fooling enough people all the time and then that makes it enough to get by on ....... that is the change people voted for, because they had no clue what was going on in the first place, and obviously all is well!
The end
Now, back to the regular
program:
YouTube - Magical Mystery Tour - The Beatles
Arizona State grads will do what they usually do: 1/3 stay in PHX and join the rat race, 1/3 go back home and join the rat race, and the rest move to south bay LA and figure out what they wantto do with their lives.
The uni pres is basically trying to triple the physical plant and destroy the notion of campus community in a school that barely had one to begin with. More a Trump wannabe than a guy who is trying to deliver value to his charges.
Property taxes in AZ are a nothingburger, just paid my yearly assesment of $2200 on a $400k house on a 1/2 acre lot near ASU. My folks in NJ pay 15x that on a house with the same lot and an extra 1000 ft^2
bANK fAILURE wrote:
You really trapped? Are you really wanting to switch back? If so, why?
If you can get to the Settings>My Account link, then the Edit tab, you should be able to set your Theme configuration back to 'cr'. If you still have problems, send me an email.
Lobbyist Ben Dover wrote:
.....Congrats, Ben.........it never ceases to amaze me the ability of growing your own food - especially here in the desert. Producing your own electricity, not having a house payment, pumping your own water is SO damned invigorating and empowering, I wholeheartedly recommend it. All worries tend to fade in importance.
She told me "that means I just need to try harder."
I agreed. What else can you say
"You have to understand, most of these people are not ready to be unplugged. And many of them are so inert, so hopelessly dependent on the system, that they will fight to protect it. "
No, I see it as the good old American never say die, if you believe and try your bestest it will all work out.
It isn't going to work out. I think she knows it too.
What can she say? I'm too old. I worked and saved. I never had a big house. I raised my kid by myself and now I am completely screwed and I am going to lose everything?
BSR
Thanks I learned a lot and have a lot more to learn. Real satisfying to me to produce something of value even if I don't need all of it. Not up to canning but I got a gal in town who keeps me well supplied with her excellent stuff. Good trade I let her use a half lot I have behind a rental house for her garden. Lots of good eating this year.
My neighbor is looking at the 1930's in her rear view mirror. Mr. Personal Depression is coming up fast and is going to be sitting in her blind spot in another a year.
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 8:52 pm
No, I see it as the good old American never say die, if you believe and try your bestest it will all work out.
It isn't going to work out. I think she knows it too.
What can she say? I'm to old. I worked and saved. I never had a big house. I raised my kid by myself and now I am completely screwed and I am going to lose everything?
Yes. That's the joy of moral hazard. The old ways aren't coming back, not for a long time anyway. The herd gets its norms from those above it in the mammalian hierarchy, and our prime apes have been some very, very bad boys. And they got their rewards from the system for their good behavior.
ResistanceIsFeudal (profile) wrote
Yes. That's the joy of moral hazard. The old ways aren't coming back, not for a long time anyway. The herd gets its norms from those above it in the mammalian hierarchy, and our prime apes have been some very, very bad boys. And they got their rewards from the system for their good behavior.
Yeah. They got the money and crushed her along the way. They never noticed what they did and they never will
Every year I learn how many mistakes I've made the year before - and I make a whole bunch of them. Once a month I might get depressed about some aspect of the garden, I go look at another person's "dirt-work", figure "I can do that", and get jazzed & motivated all over again. I just wish I could have realized when I was younger that THIS is what I was always looking for.....
Leaving Affordable Mortgage May Become Winning Gambit (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
"Morality and social stigmas play an important role in whether someone who can afford the payments will walk away, said Paola Sapienza, professor of finance at Northwestern University’s business school, in a July study on strategic defaults. Eighty-one percent of 1,646 homeowners interviewed think it is morally wrong, the study found.
“If you know someone who’s done it you’re way more likely to do it,” Sapienza said. “That’s the scariest part, is that there might be some contagion part of this.” "
So what happened to the term ruthless defaults?
I remain convinced that walkaways are indeed contagious and will reach critical mass.
Have a good nite folks, time to milk......
bsr -- i just started to wonder, "where the hell did bsr grow up?"
care to share?
My old boss is close to 70 single, female and unmarried. Was very worried about her old age as she had no family to depend on and got sold on real estate buy and rent out to retire on.
She had a lot of equity in her home and starting in 2004 or so in stages took everything out as well as finally all he 401k and invested in all the hot spots. Las Vegas, Phoenix and a few others. At one point she was up majorly. I went into her office on several ocassions and begged her to sell, gave her facts and figures.
But she was dead set on letting the rent cover the mortgage ( all 5 year io arms btw) until the homes were owned free and clear.
She's now lost half of them, gonna lose the other half. Owes more on her primary residence then it's worth, got laid off last year and has no hope of ever recovering
very stupid but very sad at the same time.
poic,
I know. I don't know if I should smack them, laugh at them, or cry for them.
"Big business deserves as much skepticism as big government."
Regards, Paleoconservatives
In my hopeful opinion neo-cons are toast.
Say people are guilted into staying with the house. They stay broke. The house slowly stops being maintained. Eventually what could be cured with simply maintenance requires expensive rip and repair. How is it better than a foreclosure, economic wise? It is the same argument for why businesses are allowed to strategically default. Admittedly, I have some problems with strategic defaults, but I'm not a sadist.
more extend and pretend by MGM Studios
MGM gets a little breathing room on its interest payments | Company Town | Los Angeles Times
[U]nder the terms of a forbearance agreement with its lenders, the company will not have to pay interest due Sept. 30, Oct. 31 and Nov. 30 until Dec. 15. The deal "provides MGM with additional liquidity as discussions continue regarding the development of an optimal capital structure in support of the company's long-term business plan," MGM said in a prepared statement.
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 9:02 pm
Yeah. They got the money and crushed her along the way. They never noticed what they did and they never will
Nope. Life is much easier for strong psychopathic types. They are evolution's true pride and joy - they have to be nature's favorites, after all they emerged the winners of its game. And they don't have to care or question their behavior's legitimacy because the system in which they operate is self-justifying via its own reinforcement mechanism. Power/money justifies itself.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Don't count on it - evolution only cares about the spread & selection of genome... fornicating in a bar in Idaho might produce more of that then working your butt off as an alpha male.
Example - I saw a show on primates once where the researchers watched a troop of macaques... the top echelon males certainly fathered a lot of young but to the researchers surprise the low status males were scoring too [and often] when the alpha males were fighting.
Point is that biology works in weird ways we can't always 'understand'... we are too close to the story & frequently project human 'values' on to the outcome. Biology doesn't care about our values - just numbers and diversity of genome.
The death of "isms" opens the door to possibilities otherwise unimaginable...
energyecon wrote:
Marx comes to mind... from the collision of thesis and antithesis comes synthesis. Then rinse repeat.
Hegel, actually.
"evolution's true pride and joy"
I suspect the psychopath peaked a long time ago. Unfortunately, there are a number of personality types that find easy prey in the more developed world. We need more effective means to identify and avoid these throwbacks.
dryfly (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 9:29 pm
Don't count on it - evolution only cares about the spread & selection of genome... fornicating in a bar in Idaho might produce more of that then working your butt off as an alpha male.
Yeah, I regretted this slightly after writing. I made the classic mistake of confusing nature with our artificial economic system that just happens to be very efficient in exploiting our natural behavioral tendencies. Nature may well be selecting against these types - it's the system we've grafted on to our basic biological needs and then confused with nature that is causing all the mixed signals...
scone wrote:
Could be - I was under the impression it was one of the tenants of 'classical marxism'... but then didn't the Marxists 'steal' his [Hegel's] thunder? And others? I had enough of that stuff to be dangerous... amazing that an engineering student got any of it... back in the day.
Taking note of evolution's own independent imperative, I think RIF still got to the right conclusion on a social level: "Power/money justifies itself."
I expect very heavy inflation, all of the sudden-in fact.
To the tune of approx 947%.
Serve salted...
/////They got the money and crushed her along the way. They never noticed what they did and they never will
/////
And the sad truth is that she will blame herself. People resign themselves to an imposible situation / system, and think they are to blame when it fails. Everyday people do what they must to fufill obligations they made in good faith. Then they learn the powers that be dupted them - and they still keep their side of the bargain.
dryfly - actually the Marxists basically inverted Hegel... I think there is an actual quote to that effect, something about "standing Hegel upon his head" - in other words, making the material the necessary and motive force and the Hegelian "spirit of history" the ancillary.
Not arguing with the 'social' - just the 'biological' projection.
Not to be pedantic, but personality was less Darwin but more Spencer and isn't seen as nice politically due to its applications in eugenics.
"Biology doesn't care about our values"
Perhaps a more basic way to view it is that survival is not necessarily dependent on conscience or societal values.
badger wrote:
Oh hell why not - the rest of us are?
scone is right. Hegel saw the entire history of the world through that visor. Hegel, however, was, and still is, rather difficult.
Marx popularized the part he wanted to emphasize and put a completely different spin on the subject, "bringing Hegel down to earth," as he explained it.
In much the same way the USSR popularized the part of Marx it wanted to emphasize . . . .
Talk about rinse and repeat. It's been a never ending process.
Hegel, though, was clearly an original thinker even if even he thought he was bringing Kant down to earth. He also was fortunate to live at a time (200 years ago) when it was still possible, for perhaps the last time in human history, to bring it all together under one philosophical system.
josap (profile) wrote on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 9:39 pm
Then they learn the powers that be dupted them - and they still keep their side of the bargain.
Yep. And then we call her a sucker, ridicule her naive beliefs, and follow in their footsteps.
dryfly (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 9:40 pm
Taking note of evolution's own independent imperative, I think RIF still got to the right conclusion on a social level: "Power/money justifies itself."
Not arguing with the 'social' - just the 'biological' projection.
I argued against that 'biological' projection too - see above. Thanks for keeping me honest
dryfly, yes, I saw the self-imposed limitation in your reply to RIF which, as I indicated, was indeed a good point to make. I just didn't want to lose his conclusion in the process.
Marx is essentially a student of Hegel. He borrowed his esoteric philosophy from Hegel and applied it to what we would call political science.
the writings of germans are impenetrable. no sentence should have seven semi-colons. the british empiricists, now that's a good time!
Wasn't Marx's entire paradigm basically economic analysis, basically blinding him to everything else?
Please stow away all services and remain calm and prepare for impact, We're going down...
Sincerely, America's Finest City
Marx popularized the part he wanted to emphasize and put a completely different spin on the subject, "bringing Hegel down to earth," as he explained it.
Marx, through Dialectical Materialism, brought a bit or purity and common sense that Hegel lacked through his emphasis on ideas as part of the dialectical process.
Of course, he id start the process, if you disregard the Greeks, who really started this whole thing.
ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:
Ya I saw it - I do that too - hit enter before my brains fully critiques.
And I knew what you were getting at & that you are no dummy - but the use of evolution in social 'applications' & resultant human projection always drives me crazy... so I stomped on it since the thread was slow... but then I took more bio, biochem & microbiology than I did engineering even though I 'degreed' in engineering.
Is discussed a worse feeling than angry?
I am past angry or too tired to be angry and have moved to discussed. Not sure anymore.
I like Hume, but also Spinoza. Fusion with a Zen overlay, and remix!
Scone probably had it closest as I recall...Marx is Hegel with his head screwed on.
Wasn't Marx's entire paradigm basically economic analysis, basically blinding him to everything else?
Love that comment, badger.
One of CR's great strengths is his tolerance of OT discussion.
The commentariat thus have freedom to avoid being purely economic in its analysis and, as a result, is not blinded to reality.
I think evolution played a role in that.
Sorry about the bad gammer, I'm drinking a bottle of good red--
I really should not be posting.
scone (profile) wrote on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 9:45 pm
Marx is essentially a student of Hegel. He borrowed his esoteric philosophy from Hegel and applied it to what we would call political science.
I had the right idea, but it was in fact Marx who claimed Hegel was inverted and by "standing Hegel on his head" order would be restored to the galaxy. The result was a materialist view of political economics that saw material forces as all-important shaping influences and "spirit" as the inessential or imaginal. But that "spirit of history" is vitally important to understanding Hegel and his notion of the movement of history as a development resulting, in and through time, from the transcendence of an irreconcilable dichotomy, not from the struggle of material forces for dominance or survival.
This thread is turning into 'Fantasy Philosopher'... like Fantasy Baseball or Football.
Soooo.... are we gonna have a draft.?
Why because you'd be the only one making sense?
philosophy. it should be called robbery. do you want all of your cherished beliefs to be disappeared and replaced with universal doubt? if yes, then study philosophy.
sneering nihilist wrote:
I'm not sure - what are the other options?
. . . if you disregard the Greeks, who really started this whole thing.
Absolutely. Hence rinse and repeat being a never ending process.
What's really amusing is how virtually every Western thought can be traced back to some fragment of some Greek philosopher's writing.
Have we really progressed . . . or just developed a larger vocabulary along with our more complicated sentence structures?
Marx's point was, forget the ideas. A small portion of he population has all the wealth and gets it though surplus value on their labor.
That was materially was what was happening.
We don't need to get the King of Prussia involved in the dialectic.
That is the lesson of history...if past performance informs the future...
I don't know. I've enjoyed some of the limited philosophy I've been exposed to. I haven't read Kierkegaard or a lot of the modern philosophers though.
dryfly - no offense taken. Actually it was an excellent point to emphasize, as that invocation of the "biological" is a very common and easy mistake to make. The economic system does in some ways copy nature, so it does exhibit behaviors that resemble biological systems and genetic selection mechanisms, at least to a limited extent.
The problem always seems to come about when the system that aped nature then tries to rule nature.
sportsfan wrote:
And 'stuff'.
certainty. flawed yet comfortable certainty. philosophy shines a brilliant light into an empty corner. i'm cool with that, but knowing everything was cool too.
I'm drinking a bottle of good red--
I really should not be posting.
On the contrary, that's the best time to post.
I don't believe we are all too dependent on the Greeks anymore. You don't see people throwing out teleology much anymore to try and get girlfriends.
for those who work in California, just got an email from my employer that taxes are going up:
not even everything... something
My kid is racing through UCLA in three years. Botany. The only botanist of the 39,650 enrolled. Agro/Bio/Pharma/Biotech companies are already interested. Grad school is surely necessary but it may turn out that it will be sponsored by an employer. Agronomy is "real college." The people who are going to suffer are the ticket punching line replaceable units. In aerospace in the 80s we called them FDHLRUs.
Ah hah, Rob Dawg, that's why you said my agronomy focus was a good idea.
badger (profile) wrote on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 9:58 pm
I don't believe we are all too dependent on the Greeks anymore. You don't see people throwing out teleology much anymore to try and get girlfriends.
No - and I doubt it ever did. If it were ever otherwise, it would probably be very fortunate for society as a whole.
////10 percent withholding increase - November 1, 2009.////
Forever? For a time frame?
Any explination?
Did state congress vote on it?
I'm so far behind in the thread that I'm gonna just latch on to someone's comment about the Nikkei earlier and make my daily "Look at that Yen!" comment. It isn't so much that the USD/JPY relationship has changed over the past 24 hours, but looking at how equities, bonds, and commodities moved over the past 24 hours, the almost stillness of that cross is impressive.
.
When things were going up, the JPY was moving 0.3%-0.6% per day on the volatile weeks, but it starts off the 4Q with a whimper.
I hear ya.
josap, here is the a link to a google search i did on the bill with some links to the tables:
Napa Chamber's Napa Business Focus
More trouble certainly begins when Japan values their currency more than their exports to the US.
Employee withholdings go up 10%. Bonus income gets a 1% increase.
Why does this strike me as not fair?
Swinging back to my Las Vegas trip for a moment, I did obtain two additional insights concerning the contrast there with California:
It does help knowing whether the
is behind you or in front of you . . . or if it's bearing down right onto you.
Employee withholdings go up 10%. Bonus income gets a 1% increase.
Why does this strike me as not fair?
because its not..
what is current rate?
As far as the 19th century thinkers go, my favorite was JS Mill